Making a Case For Johan Oviedo

2-22-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

With Spring Training off and running, I decided to dive into the roster and try to determine who could be a breakout player in 2023. I kept coming back to one name, someone who I saw sitting with Rich Hill last week and appearing to be in deep conversation about a very particular pitch for which Hill is well-known. You already saw the title so you know I’m talking about Johan Oviedo. Let’s dive into it.

Oviedo came over last season from St. Louis as part of the Jose Quintana/Chris Stratton trade, which included Malcom Nuñez for the Pirates. He worked mostly in relief for the Cardinals last year, as his first stint as a starter didn’t work out so well. 

Through the 2020-2021 seasons, Johan went 0-8 with a 5.07 ERA, good for a 79 ERA+ and a FIP of 5.28. He started the 2022 season in Triple-A Memphis, where he posted a 5.58 ERA over 10 starts to open the season.

The Cardinals, however, had seen enough and slotted him in the bullpen following his June 4th start against the Cubs, where he allowed 3 runs in 5 innings. He wouldn’t surrender multiple runs in a single outing the rest of his time in St. Louis before his trade to Pittsburgh.

Following the trade, the Pirates optioned Oviedo to Indianapolis to get him stretched back out as a starter. Here is his stat line: 5 G (4 S), 11.1 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BBs, 13 Ks. 

The Pirates were impressed enough to call him up to start a game at home against Toronto. He threw three shutout frames of 2-hit ball. And while he did walk 3 batters, it was a promising start. His next outing was not quite so rosy, as he allowed 4 runs in just 1.2 innings against the Mets. 

Pitchers of all levels will, at different points, deal with poor outings. The difference – typically learned with experience – is how to bounce back after a tough game. Oviedo finished the rest of the season with 26 innings pitched over 5 starts, and allowed just 7 runs off 20 hits with 8 walks against 22 strikeouts. Good for a 2.42 ERA.

So what caused this turn-around?

Oviedo’s best pitch last year was his slider, which graded out with a run value of -8. For reference, Brewers reliever Devin Williams throws the filthiest change-up known to man. Run value on the pitch last season? You guessed it: -8. 

It’s a small sample size, yes, but Johan also had an adjusted run value/100 of -2.0 on the pitch. This is the same number Yankee’s starter Nestor Cortes had with his 4-seamer and Diamondback’s starter Zac Gallen showed on his curveball. That’s not bad company to keep.

Oviedo managed a 28.8 K% on the slider with a 33.8 Whiff%. In previous years, he was throwing the pitch less than 30% of the time, but in 2022, he threw it more than 40% of the time. See his splits below over the past three years for a noticeable improvement with the increased slider this past season:

His mix of pitches also includes a rising fastball (which can touch 100), a diving curve in the upper-70s, and a changeup which still needs some polish – but could also be a solid weapon in his already interesting arsenal. 

It has been suggested by multiple sources that Oviedo could potentially work in as a 6th starter early on in the season, which could lighten the workload of the rotation and keep him in the mix. Oscar Marin has stated that they believe in his ability to be a starter and are not looking to move him to the bullpen. 

Fans will talk about future rotation pieces for the Bucs in Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows – and deservedly so. Oviedo has the potential to be better than all of them, especially if he truly is working on his curveball with Rich Hill.

Hump Day Pittsburgh Pirates Q&A

2-22-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Ok, I think week one of this feature went pretty well. Ton of great questions, and I wasn’t disappointed again. It’s the final “dry” week for those of us who’ve been dying for some Major League Baseball, so let’s dig in.

Question 1

Do you think that Robert Nutting has gone through a change of heart this year, and really wants the Pirates to actually compete with his helping the Pirates team financially the best he can? – Bill Kolbe

Such a sneaky loaded question this is. Here’s the truth, he’s never, ever, going to spend enough to compete. Even that is a false statement, because if the prospects develop and they “compete” in 2025 and the payroll is 95 million or 105, whatever, did he spend to win? Technically, yes, but will you still call him cheap, yup. The Pirates are not going to be one of the top spending teams, in fact, they’ll likely not crack 15th place. Not under this system. This might seem a bit snippy, but I truly don’t mean anything more than to be as blunt as possible. If and when this team wins, it’ll be because they developed it, not because they bought it. All of us “bootlickers” or “apologists” we all know this sucks, but we also know a different owner and maybe we’re Milwaukee, at best. So even if Nutting had his road to Damascus moment, trust me, he’s gonna get tired of spreading the gospel before he gets too far down the road.

This is why teams in this position, tend to go the route of blowing things up and trying to build it. While that’s entirely frustrating for fans and everyone involved, look around this league, it’s not just “bad” owners, it’s any owner who doesn’t think they can simply join the arms race and win it.

That’s not to give cover to Nutting, it’s just to say, the league is a much bigger issue. If you want to hate him for being cheap, hey, I’m not gonna disagree or argue, but just know, even if he were the most altruistic owner in professional sports, maybe 180 million for stretches? Maybe. There are teams that make more from their yearly cable deals than the Pirates could dream of as a max payroll, see more in question 3 about this.

Question 2

Hi Gary, I never hear anything about Brendan Malone. Do you know if he’s still injured? I keep holding out hope for him. The Starling Marte trade isn’t going to look good without him unless Peguero really surprises everyone. Definitely not giving up on either of them. -Don Jacobsen

I wish there was more Don, I really do. Picked 33rd overall in 2019, he’s thrown a grand total of 27 pitches since. Injuries have entirely derailed him. The saving grace, he’s only 22. The last I’ve heard is he started throwing balls in December, and was on track to start throwing plyo balls in January. Recovering from shoulder injury, I doubt he has much of a go before summer really, and at that I’d imagine they’d want to start him in Bradenton. If he can stay healthy, the stuff was really good, but he’d have to rocket through the system at this point or transition to bullpen. Cody Potanko, Anthony Murphy and Craig Toth could all do better with this one potentially, but most of this information came from them and it’s dated.

Question 3

What’s your thoughts on the current state of RSN’s? Balley considering filing bankruptcy, AT&T missing a payment too the pirates? Too some this might not mean much but , it’s a big deal IMO. Cable is a dying technology & tv viewing habits are changing big time.

I think the product coming too the consumer via apps are going to happen sooner that later & blackouts will be ending. ESPN is also working on taking its Networks directly to the consumer in app form. – Jason Downing

First of all Jason, I’m not going to do this question justice in this answer. Meaning, my answer will struggle to properly illustrate the importance of this developing story. I’ve had an eye on this for a little over a month as the Sinclair story broke first out in California. First, I saw from Dejan Kovacevic that technically the Pirates payment hasn’t come due yet, not that it means whey won’t get shorted, but as of right now, seems it’s just expected.

Also, this has been building for a while, the number of people cutting the cord reached 10% of all cable and satellite subscribers in 2022 and it’s expected to climb to as high as 16% in 2023. So even if your provider is safe now, chances are they won’t remain there.

This won’t change much for fans, yet. MLB has a tentative plan for how to handle this that involves them taking over the production and selling the broadcasts back to the cable and sat providers, plus MLB.com. In some ways this is welcome for baseball, one thing it’ll destroy is the blackout problem that MLB has been trying to find a way around for years. By owning the broadcasts, they can simply do away with the blackout restrictions. The other and far more controversial thing this could bring, in a very roundabout way, a cap system.

A vast majority of baseball’s acknowledged disparity in payroll and financial resources has been largely driven by these RSN’s. Ever since the Yankees way back in the early 90’s signed a 50 million dollar per year cable rights deal, the game has been on a have and have not trajectory. Add in the owners being angry about Steve Cohen thumbing his nose at their silly faux luxury tax threshold penalties, and well, I’ll just remind everyone, the CBA expires in 2027, the owners who wanted to get a more balanced spending league done at the last one held that process hostage for a month.

Much much more to come. I’m working on a couple great guests for my podcast the Pirates Fan Forum to help work through everything this means and doesn’t mean in the very near future.

As to my thoughts, well, change is often needed, but rarely comes without necessity.

Question 4

Do you see the projected AAA starting rotation being the actual MLB starting rotation at the end of the year aside from Keller and Contreras, injuries aside.

Falling on my sword here, forgot to copy your name. Whomever you are, Sorry.

I think overall, most all of us need to pump the brakes a bit with all of this. I get people are excited to see some of these kids, but let it play out. It’s going to be less of a wave and more of a sprinkler. And that’s not directed at you person who’s name I forgot to copy, just a general statement.

Now, Ortiz, Oviedo, and Burrows all have a very good chance to get some significant time in MLB. Beyond that, you’re looking at cup of coffee or injury driven.

Ortiz will get some time to develop his changeup, as good as he looked he simply has to have it or he’ll be a bullpen pitcher at some point. Oviedo, by far the most proven, and I can make an argument he should make the rotation out of Spring but he too still has periods where he couldn’t hit Beyoncé’s backside with a fly swatter. Burrows was brilliant in AA, and in AAA he was, well, ok. He clearly has some things to clean up. Priester’s only “crime” is not being on the 40-man. We’ve seen that not matter in the past due to performance (Cal Mitchell), but for pitchers, especially pitchers who you can assume they’d probably manipulate service time with a bit, well, cup of coffee see what I mean? Also, don’t rule out my dark horse Carmen Mlodzinski.

2 or 3 of them have a shot, yes.

Question 5

Gary, Is there a way to compare the Jason Kendall 2000 contract to what Reynolds agents are asking for? A few of us are worried it could be the albatross that Kendall’s was. I’m actually hoping the Pirates sign but am worried about a financial albatross too. Thanks. – Jim Maruca

Kendall signed or 6 years 60 Million. And Reynolds camp reportedly wanted 8 years 135 Million. Kendall clocks in with an AAV of 10 Million per and Reynolds (who hasn’t actually signed this) would be 16.875 per. Adjust for inflation, meh, they’re comparable. Albatross huh, well, I doubt it. For one thing, back in Kendall’s day teams typically signed deals that were cheap up front and costly in the back. Today, teams have gotten much more clever. For instance, the Pirates payroll will likely only be 75+ million by the end of the season, so if they were to say, give Bryan a deal where in year one he gets 18 million, and then have it end with two more reasonable numbers for years 7 & 8, it makes him movable, and or he makes more of an appropriate wage for a bench role.

Look at Ke’s deal. 10, 10, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, Option for 12 Club. See what they did there? That first ten was last year, the second is this one, and so on and so on. You can get even more creative than that if you like, and it helps you deal with unexpected things. See all those 7s, guess when they expect to be spending the most on this window. Right. That stretch from 2024 through 2029 the Pirates expect to pay their starting 3B 7 or 8 million per season.

I’d really boil all this down to this though. Bob worries enough about his money, we don’t need to help. lol

Question 6

It does look like many of the Pirates came to spring training in great shape. But I ask you if any of the Pirates are not in good physical condition this spring. For instance, I saw a photo of one of my favorite players, David Bednar, that seems to indicate a lot of added weight. Your thoughts? – Dale Merchant

He’s not quite Bartolo Colon, but when a guy has lower back issues and he’s also carrying some extra weight, well, most of us can say from personal experience that’s not a good combination. I am not down there, but I’ve also seen photos and videos and have to admit, I had the same thought. That said, he’s been present all year around Pittsburgh so I wasn’t really caught off guard by it. Dunno brother, I hope he is just one of those dudes who just carries it and does his thing, but if he breaks down again this year, I’d have to imagine people more important than us will be asking the same thing.

Question 7

I think Endy will be a very good major league hitter but he hasn’t shown eye popping exit velocity in the minors what kind of hitter do you think he‘ll be in 23 and going forward? Thanks – Adam Yarkovsky

Well Yark, I think when guys get up around the AA to AAA level, the scouts are right more often than not, and he’s certainly caught the eye of scouts damn near universally. I think ultimately he’s going to hit, and I think he’ll grow into his power a bit. I’d also say, he’s more of a line drive hitter and it may not get to the wall in 3.1 seconds, but it lands in the gaps often enough he can blaze around the bases. The bat speed is there for that metric to turn around too. One thing I can say, I trust most metrics measured in Indianapolis much more than Greensboro.

I think he’ll hit his way onto this team, and overall I think that metric goes up before he does. Now, does he catch? Remains to be seen.

Question 8

Will Henry Davis start the season in Altoona or Indy this year? Does he have a shot of being a September call up? -Alan Bellomo

I’d bet AA Altoona. He can work through that relatively quickly but with AAA looking to have as many as 3 or 4 catchers, even after Spring, just makes sense to start him down there to me.

I do think the Pirates could take a guy like Delay and have him be the MLB reserve catcher but still, they likely won’t want him to compete for time with Endy. If the bat is ready, and if he’s healthy, I truly believe it will show itself to be exactly that, they’ll have to make room, maybe even consider letting Endy play elsewhere or Henry for that matter. Catchers are tough, gotta get at bats and defensive reps so there is much more to consider.

Much like Priester, his biggest “crime” might be his not being on the 40-man. Cup of coffee is certainly on the table though.

I could have written almost the exact same answer for Nick Gonzales although I do believe he’ll start in AAA. He’s still got some guys to jump and again, not on that 40-man.

Thanks everyone, lets do it again next week!
-Gary

Pirates Preparation With Matt Capps

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-jhd9g-139ad76

Craig is once again joined by Matt Capps-Former Pirates Closer and Current Pirates Color Analyst for AT&T SportsNet to discuss the differences between starters and relievers, the idea of having a personal catcher, the advantages to veteran leadership in the clubhouse and the rule change he believes will have the biggest affect on pitchers.  

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: NRIs

When I first read the NRI list-and thought about writing this blog post-I started a list that looked much like the previous Top 5s from previous weeks; as in containing almost all the same familiar names.

But then it dawned on me, that there were almost more surprises on the list than guys I expected to be added to Big League Camp.

However, before I get started I would feel remiss if I didn’t explain that just because A guy doesn’t get the NRI designation, it doesn’t mean we won’t see them in Spring Training action. Guys get called over from Minor League Camp at Pirate City all the time. Whether it be for a day to cover one of the two scheduled split-squad games, or to give a regular a break in the later innings pretty much any day over the nearly 30 games in the Grapefruit League.

1) Malcom Nunez-1B/3B

Nunez being there is not a surprise. What is the surprise, is how smooth he looks at the hot corner. Yes, I realize that it is a simple infield drill; however, based on some his scouting assessments, one would think he couldn’t field the position, even if his life depended on it.

Clearly this isn’t the case.

His good footwork, with a smooth glove could make the move to first one of benefit, not out of necessity.

Add in the recently established power potential, and you might have a legitimate answer at first base in MLB.

2) Jared Jones-RHP

Jones is truly a surprise for me here, but nowhere near undeserving.

Of the regular starters in Greensboro this past season only Nick Garcia-traded to Colorado for Connor Joe-had a better ERA 4.62 to 3.66 and WHIP 1.204 to 1.353 than Jones; although, the young man from La Mirada High Schoo is over 2 and a half years younger than Garcia.

Selected as one of the Pirates Prospects that Peak My Interest Peaked My Interest, Jones has the completely unfair mid-90’s four seamer with a 2600 rpm spin and a slider that moves from one side of the plate to the other. Add in a near average changeup, and the Pirates might have something.

3) Lolo Sanchez-OF

Lolo is the first one this list that I haven’t mentioned, or potentially even though about as a factor since before the 2021 season.

But more than likely around 2018.

At this point you might think Sanchez is reaching 27 to 28 years old because of how long he has been around, but in reality the young man is just about to turn 24 in April.

Still it doesn’t change the fact that Sanchez has slashed .252/.353/.391 since 2019. Even so, he does have a 112 wRC+ and 70 stolen bases, so it is entirely possible they are trying to figure out what the new rule changes could mean for a player like Lolo.

4) Andres Alvarez-IF/OF

20 Homers/20 Stolen Bases. That’s one hell of an accomplishment for a player in Altoona; especially since it’s never happened before.

Through the first 105 plate appearances of the season the former Cougar batted .271 with an 1.004 OPS with 8 homers. At the time I was a little bit concerned about his 26.7% K-Rate, but his 15.2% BB-rate kept me optimistic.

After his hot start Alvarez struggled to the tune of a .205 AVG with an .697 OPS. To his credit he maintained a consistent walk rate of 14.2%, and blasted 12 more homers. Nevertheless, it’s hard to ignore how his numbers decreased as the season went on; ending the year with an .567 OPS over his final 51 plate appearances in September.

On a positive note Alvarez does have the flexibility to play every position except first base and catcher; which, is something Ben Cherington and Company have put an emphasis on.

5) Termarr Johnson-2B

At only 18 years old, the Pirates 2022 First Round Draft Pick and Top Prospect is set to be the youngest NRI in the entire Grapefruit League. And, although this isn’t a normal invitation-in that he has no chance of heading north with the Big League Club-there are some positive to Johnson being with the Major Leaguers; even if it is only for a couple of weeks.

First and foremost he will get to see how professionals go about their business in preparation for the upcoming season; while getting to interact with them on a daily basis.

An added bonus would be the possibility of instilling the desire in him to work toward returning to the same camp in the future; only as a player that could potentially head to PNC Park. However, with that being at least a couple of years away, it might make more sense to focus of the present.

As it stands, Johnson is still an 18 year-old kid with 82 plate appearances spread between the FCL and Low-A Bradenton.

Still that doesn’t change the fact that I am more than just a little bit excited to see what this young man can do in 2023, and beyond.

Conclusion

I realize that this list was a little bit different than the previous ones, as probably only Nunez has a chance to impact the 2023 roster in a meaningful way; or really at all.

However, it does give us a little bit of insight as to how Ben Cherington operates concerning development; and, potentially how he views certain players in the system. Especially when you look who he could have selected to attend the Big League Camp, but chose a few of these guys instead.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

2-20-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

We’re about a week into Spring Training, and the first game will come this Saturday. Even while everyone makes a scene out of the date pitchers and catchers report, most players wind up arriving at almost the same time with a few stragglers actually pushing the boundaries of anything resembling a position player deadline.

Everyone is there, most players, yes even those dealing with arbitration or contract negotiations, nagging injuries, seem to be rowing in the same direction and speaking from the same pulpit.

Lets dig in as we begin the last week without MLB baseball games until October.

1. Things Change for Different Reasons

Spring always brings stories of metamorphosis. Players change and it’s never more apparent than over the offseason.

Ke’Bryan Hayes added mass, trying to fortify a body that has let him down for the past couple seasons of his career.

Jack Suwinski has almost completely changed his batting stance and swing. He’s opened up and is now standing much taller in the box. Not to mention his legs look like tree trunks.

Bryan Reynolds showed up with Sidney Crosby legs. If you know you know.

Will Crowe has trimmed, trying to avoid running out of stamina at the end of the season.

Andrew McCutchen looks trim and focused on the season in front of him.

Roansy Contreras knows more innings will be expected from him, and he too has bulked up.

Listen, all of this, sounds a lot like “best shape of their lives” right? I get it. But over all when you see this many players come to camp looking like they put in work all offseason, it’s not a bad thing.

Immediately the veterans look to be teaching. Rich Hill caught giving an eagerly listening Johan Oviedo tips on curveball grips after a bullpen session. Cutch bonding with Hayes almost immediately. Austin Hedges from the jump giving every pitcher feedback, and drawing praise from each. I mean wait ’til he actually knows these guys folks.

All of this can be chalked up to the hope of a new season, and it certainly is about that, but there is also a lot to like about what we’ve seen show up at camp.

2. What is the Plan with McCutchen?

To hear Andrew tell it, well, it sounds like he plans to DH primarily, and maybe play some outfield. To hear management discuss it, he could play outfield a decent amount and DH some too.

Feels like two sides of one coin, and it could be as simple as semantics, or, it could be that one side (the player) is preparing for his lowest level of involvement, almost like preparing mentally so as not to be disappointed, while the team is polishing up their show horse before running a race.

Reality is, no matter what the Pirates or Andrew have planned, I simply don’t see his body holding up to 130+ games in the outfield.

Doesn’t mean I’m right, doesn’t mean they won’t put him out there and see how far they can get, but in my mind, it’s not the best way to use Andrew and it’s not the best way to ensure he’s a factor all year.

Unlike most one year signings, we already know Andrew’s intention is to finish his career here. That doesn’t mean 2023 is it, but it does mean if he wants to put in another year, he wants it to be in Pittsburgh. We already know the Pirates agreed with him, even if only to get this deal done. Further we know Andrew doesn’t want traded at the deadline and the Pirates aren’t looking to do that either, both provided the caveat that Andrew could change his mind hunting a ring, and even then, he’d want to return.

Point is, Andrew seems ready and willing to accept he’s no longer an everyday player, and the Pirates would rather not push forward he’s anything less.

The usage of this one player will dictate so many other things. How much room do they have for OF prospects to get time? Do one of the first basemen signed wind up on the bench more than they wind up being the DH? With Cutch’s decreased range does he wind up in Right Field at PNC?

Sometimes Spring is about who makes the club. Sometimes it’s about how the hell do we use who makes it.

3. Wil Crowe a Sleeper Bullpen Standout?

One thing you want when you ask a player to change positions or move into a new role is that the player will at least not allow his own idea of what his path should be to get in the way of his success. What you don’t often expect is the player to embrace it so much that they change everything they were to become the new role.

That’s what Wil Crowe did in 2022. He went from a fidgety starter who far too often had to have the one pitch out of his arsenal of options that wasn’t working on a given day and overthought nearly every pitch into a bullpen pitcher who worked fast, trusted the catcher and more often than not hit his spots and got the job done.

He embraced it, volunteered for more and ultimately proved by season’s end that fatigue would catch up with him physically, but it would never affect his attitude or approach.

To tackle this, Wil showed up looking much slimmer, and this time he plans to last all season long.

He was already an effective option out of the bullpen, but Wil could wind up being a really effective bridge to the back end and effective fill in for setup man. His pitch mix is really evolved, and paired with his elite barrel and hard hit percentages carving out a good role for himself won’t be an issue.

He’s part of an equation that could add up to a real strength for this club. The bullpen and the depth that won’t even make the club out of Spring and starters who find themselves pushed into a different role just like Wil himself was at one point have a chance to really change the fortunes of a team that lost 19 one run games in 2022.

I don’t need to tell you what even half of those going the other way would look like last year, but let’s just say we might not be focusing on Dylan Crews so much.

4. There is No Try, Only Do

When your target is small and the outer rings don’t matter, you better hit the spot when you shoot your shot.

This franchise is always going to bargain shop to a degree, it’s simply a reality, but taking into account the Bryan Reynolds situation and the fact they’re going to face many many more situations like this in the coming years, they better learn something from it.

Regardless of how this individual situation turns out, they simply must understand starting out with what could be conceived as a slap in the face, well, that’s not better than no offer at all.

In fact, there is one very clear message that was obscured by the quick trigger of CAA, Bryan Reynold’s agent. The Pirates want this player to be here, and they also weren’t planning on just running out his controlled years and trading him. If they were, they probably wouldn’t have kicked the hornet’s nest.

Think of it this way. Agents will always and forever ask for more, and teams will always and forever offer less than they should. The agent shouldn’t lose their mind when they see the offer, and the team shouldn’t lose their mind when they see the request. That said, it happens, and when each side is equally likely to leak those numbers to the press, perhaps each should use that knowledge to be a bit more realistic.

This is where the Hayes deal kinda bites the Pirates in the backside. He did take less than he could have, regardless of what you see his worth as, he’s simply not making what one would expect a starting level player to make over 7 years of playing the game. He took a team friendly deal.

Ben Cherington has of course seen this stuff before in Boston, but bluntly, that’s when he started running into trouble.

The lessons are there to be learned from, but until I start seeing it, I can’t help but have some knots in my stomach thinking about Roansy, Keller, Cruz, and whomever else emerges. Not everyone is going to take a sweetheart deal, not everyone should for that matter, but something I think is safe to identify, the Pirates starting point is too low, too often.

5. The Unsaid Plus About This System

The Pirates have done a good job adding talent to their system. No comment on if it’s going to be enough, no pretending I know who will be here vs who will wind up being trade bait, just talking sheer numbers at this point.

Some of those prospects of course are ready to push their way onto the roster this year, that’s good, and for many of the “rebuilds” we’ve seen around here, where they’d stop. The beauty of what the Pirates have set up at the moment, they still have a bunch of talent in the lower levels too.

Meaning, what we were calling the “Greensboro Cavalry”, well, most of it is now in Indianapolis, and looking at Greensboro in 2023, well, it still looks like a roster full of Cavalry.

This team has talent all through the minor league system, and they don’t have a ton of apparent holes at the MLB level because they went and filled them, even if temporarily.

I can’t say it’ll work, but I can say the job of building a foundation for this system, they’ve done well.

What separates teams like the Rays from everyone else who doesn’t spend much is how they sustain it. Part of that is building the foundation.

Keep your eye on the minors as this continues. It isn’t going to fall off the face of the Earth, and that my friends makes this different in and of itself.

Bonus

This weekend my wife’s grandmother passed on. She was an incredible woman. A lifelong Pittsburgher, Veteran, and fiercely proud woman.

For me, beyond all the general family reasons to love your significant other’s Grandma, she was a huge Pirates fan. We’d talk baseball just about every time I saw her and without reading articles (yes, even mine), no listening to podcasts, not watching inside Pirates baseball, nope, just watching the games, she’d observe things you’d think only a scout would pick up on.

I never got the chance to talk with her about Andrew McCutchen coming back, but I like to think she’ll be looking down as he looks up with his arms spread wide to the heavens after a victory this year.

They brought him back Flo, I’m sorry you didn’t get to see him hit one more.

Rest easy, you earned it.

Oneil Cruz Sets His Goals, What if He Achieves Them

2-18-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Hey! 30 Home Runs, 30 Stolen Bases!

That sounds good right?

How about 40/40 instead?

First off, I love the lofty goals, and if the kid thinks he can do it, why not. I mean it’s hard to imagine a healthy Oneil Cruz hitting less than 30 isn’t it?

But 40/40, man there haven’t been a bunch of those, well, ever.

Three of them during the steroid era. Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.

One of them, Alfonso Soriano in 2006.

This doesn’t happen often, so it’s not likely. That said, look at the skill set, the body type, the physical freak that is Oneil Cruz and I can’t imagine you’d just dismiss it off hand.

Even the list of modern players to reach 30/30 is a who’s who in MLB. Mike Trout hasn’t done it since 2012, and probably won’t achieve it again. Cedric Mullins just did it in 2021, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr., I mean if you pull this off, you’re no joke.

And sadly…

You aren’t likely a player the Pirates will afford.

Now, Cruz has some things to tackle if he’s going to hit these numbers. Has to cut down on strikeouts, probably needs to hit left handed pitching a bit better too. The pop is there, the speed is there, and the new rules, well lets just say 30 stolen bases isn’t the near impossible part of this equation it used to be.

I’d ordinarily tell you, this is getting ahead of yourself, and it really is, but I can’t pretend it’s impossible. He wasn’t as good as he can be last year, and still if I simply prorate his 2022 numbers out into a full season, he’s awful close to 30/30, maybe even there.

The biggest questions about Cruz aren’t with his bat, they’re with his glove, but the Pirates may need to consider taking a leap of faith with Oneil.

When a team like this even smells special, it very quickly becomes now or never. Like Acuna in Atlanta, Trout in LA, Betts in Boston, Yelich in Milwaukee, you jump on it and make sure you keep it.

I include some of those names for different reasons. Acuna because he was a young phenom and set the mold for how the Braves have built their roster out. Trout because he’s never gotten to win, and his very team didn’t do the same when they had a chance with Ohtani, Betts because Boston waited too long and wound up having to ship him, and Yelich because quite frankly, that’s worst case scenario.

It’s a risk, and with the Reynolds situation still playing out, probably not even their priority, but at some point soon, the idea of locking Oneil Cruz in better get to top of mind.

Even if he doesn’t achieve these goals in 2023, they’re going to be possible for a while. Cruz is 24 years old, and he’ll be a free agent in 2029. At that point he’ll be 30, and who knows what his resume might look like. Will we have fans pretending he’s too old like we’re seeing with Reynolds right now, in an effort to make themselves feel better, or will we be looking forward to even more time with Cruz in the black and gold?

I can’t predict the future like that, nobody can, but I can certainly say nobody is going to want to watch him go through arbitration, nobody is going to enjoy the near constant trade rumors that are sure to start come 2026, and nobody is going to accept the excuse they can’t afford it. True or not.

Good players you can take your time with, even if you’re the Pirates, great players, well they require a leap of faith.

Maybe it’s time for the Pirates to take one, instead of insisting fans alone ride the faith train.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Po-Yu Chen

2-16-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Once a year the Pirates Fanbase is inundated with a list of prospects that Pittsburgh has inked to deals during the International Signing Period. Then without fail, these young man are quickly pushed to the back of nearly everyone’s minds, until hopefully one day they show up at PNC Park.

This season it was Jun-Seok Shim-the #10 International Prospect on MLB Pipeline, who caught the eye of Pittsburgh’s scouts; and in turn Pirates Fans. The young man from South Korea first showed up on the radar back in 2020, while pitching for Duksoo High School in Seoul.

At 6’4” and 215 pounds, this 18 year-old looks like a grown man as he lights up the zone with a 94-96 mph fastball and 12-6 curveball; along with a potential plus slider and changeup.

In 2022, Yordany De Los Santos and Tony Blanco, Jr. were the headliners of the class. At 6’5” and 230 pounds-at only 16 years-old-Blanco, Jr. towered over nearly any other prospect you could imagine; and possesses an unbelievable amount of raw power.

De Los Santos on the other hand is more of a contact hitter with plus defensive potential, that could possibly stick as shortstop; not that these are bad things.

Back in January of 2021, Ben Cherington and Company made a pretty big splash by inking the #11 International Prospect on MLB Pipeline-16 year old Dominican Outfielder Shalin Polanco-to a near record $2.35 million signing bonus.

However, it was the October 20, 2020 signing of then 19 year-old Taiwanese Pitcher Po-Yu Chen that really put the new Pirates Regime on the map as far as the International Market was concerned.

Yet, to tell the full story, we have to go back a little bit further.

On August 28, 2020 the Pirates-and more specifically Ben Cherington-traded outfielder Jarod Dyson to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for an additional $243,300 of international bonus pool space; a bump in available funds that they eventually put into signing Chen for $1.25 million.

In 2019 the 6’2” 198 pound right-handed hurler pitched in the WSBC U-18 Baseball World Cup, where he put up a 1.29 ERA over a total of 14 innings thanks to his high 80s/low 90s sinking fastball, curve ball and somewhat advanced changeup.

With the Pirates, Chen would begin his professional career in the FCL; a situation in which he was nothing shorting of dominating. Over 26 innings of work he did not walk a single batter, struck out 29-good for a rate of 10.0 K/9-and posted an nearly identical 0.69 ERA and .692 WHIP.

Unfortunately his transition to Low-A Bradenton did not go smoothly as put up a 5.63 ERA and a 1.688 WHIP, while walking 12 and striking out 15; although his one start was a 7 inning, 3 hit, 0 run and 6 K performance.

At 20-still a full two years younger than the average Low-A ball player-Chen would be tasked with repeating the level in order to refine his pitch-mix; while emphasizing his strengths at the same time.

The result(s) were a mixed bag.

One start he would look absolutely dominating; as can be seen in the first two videos below.

Then he would hit a speed bump, like he did against Fort Meyers in his last start of the season. Although, he still seemed to be in control-at times-even during these outings.

On the year Chen would post a 4.58 ERA and a 1.261 WHIP with 103 strikeouts across 98.1 innings of work. Looking into the advanced stats, a 3.76 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) and 3.81 xFIP, it’s possible he got a little unlucky; however, his .300 BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) is right around average, so maybe the real number is somewhere in between.

Most likely slated to join the Greensboro Grasshoppers Rotation in 2023, Chen could see his numbers inflate slightly; albeit, he doesn’t really fit into a predominantly fly-ball and/or ground-ball pitcher, with rates of 30.1% and 41.4%.

I guess we will all just have to wait and see. And, by see I mean, I hope he pitches on the road; that is unless Greensboro updated its streaming capabilities.

The Expectations for Pirates Year Two Players

2-16-23 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on Twitter

The Pittsburgh Pirates began their “youth movement” in 2022, featuring the debuts of Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras and others as full-time MLB players rather than short stints like we saw with Cruz & Contreras at the end of 2021 and Liover Peguero in 2022.

A good number of those second year players are returning in elevated roles for a Pirates team with some expectations this season, so let’s take a look at every second year player and how they performed last season and what we can expect from them this season.

SS Oneil Cruz

We all know the full-time debut of Oneil Cruz was one of the best moments we saw from the 2022 Pirates and he did not disappoint in the slightest.

Yes, Oneil Cruz is a below average defender at the shortstop position and trying to break a known stereotype that someone standing 6-foot-7 cannot play the position. Yes, Oneil Cruz broke multiple StatCast records and had eyes on him every time he stepped up to the plate expecting something crazy to happen. With all that said though, Cruz is polarizing, but even polarizing players have to improve.

Starting with his defense, Cruz had struggles, as expected, being the everyday shortstop. He rushed himself in times where the out at first was about as simple as it could get, speaking to his 97th percentile in arm strength. As the season came to a close though, improvements and adjustments were made in that area as Cruz began to take his time more often than not and still managed to make the highlight plays every once in awhile defensively.

He also posted a -9 Outs Above Average in 2022, a number that has to improve if he sees himself playing defense at shortstop long term. For comparison sake, Cruz had 327 defensive attempts at SS last season with an expected success rate of 80 percent. He was successful 77 percent of the time, so a -3 percent difference, so an improvement in that area would likely improve other areas defensively for Cruz.

Now moving to his most important area, his bat, Cruz did amazing things last season in terms of exit velocity, hard hit rate and many other areas. Batting .233/.294/.450/.744, numbers that don’t look flashy to the common eye, but adding in his 17 HRs and 10 stolen bases makes you wonder, could Cruz potentially have a 30 HR and 30 stolen base season in 2023?

30 HRs and 30 SBs is a major achievement for any player and it takes a good blend of power and speed to do so and it just so happens Cruz possesses both of those talents. He’ll have to improve against off-speed pitches though, which ranked him in the bottom-10 percentiles in whiff rate and strikeout rate last season, but with his potential through the roof, I expect him to at least figure out off-speed pitches a little bit this season and see a jump in HRs, RBIs, SBs and slugging and threaten to hit 30+ in the HR and stolen base departments.

SP Roansy Contreras

2022 was an interesting season for Roansy Contreras.

As mentioned before, Contreras made a cameo start at the end of 2021, but 2022 was his first season of prominence at the big-league level for the Pirates.

In 21 games, Contreras saw 18 starts, beginning the season in the bullpen after a call-up from Indianapolis, a move that puzzled myself and many across Pirates fandom, but he was sent back down to the AAA level and returned pretty quickly and cemented himself in the starting rotation pretty quickly.

Over those 18 starts, Contreras threw 95.0 IP, posted an impressive 3.79 ERA with 86 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP, all numbers that were very welcoming to a stagnate starting rotation that desperately needed well-pitched innings with the bullpen taking a noticeable decline as the season drew on.

Beyond those statistics, Contreras was impressive in StatCast metrics as well, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in Chase Rate, Fastball velocity, Fastball spin and Curve spin. He also ranked above average in Whiff percentage and Extension, all measureables that speak highly of his improvements after each and every start.

Contreras features four pitches, the fastball, slider, curveball and changeup, as we saw last season, with the fastball and slider being used a combined 82.8 percent of the time. Focusing on the fastball and slider, Contreras’s fastball was hit a good bit last season, surrendering a .276 batting average and nine of the 13 HRs he allowed, so although the velocity on his fastball ranked highly, it was hit and hit often.

Moving to the slider, which I believe to be his best pitch in his arsenal, it was the second most thrown pitch by Contreras and he saw major success with it, with hitters only hitting .163 against it while also posting his highest whiff rate(42.1) and put away rate(24.2) of any pitch he threw in 2022.

His curveball rated well also, but Contreras heads into 2023 in a much more elevated role than what he saw in 2022. His innings numbers went up last season and I expect no different from him in 2023 seeing as himself and Mitch Keller will likely headline the rotation for the majority of the season.

Expect Contreras to utilize the fastball-slider combo a ton this season, bring down his hard hit rate, pitch close to if not more than 150 innings and cement himself as a top-option in the rotation for the foreseeable future.

2B Rodolfo Castro

How about a surprising debut season? Well, Rodolfo Castro delivered on that question last season at a point of need alongside Oneil Cruz and gave us a different thought process on the position at least for the short-term future.

His season was very comparable to Oneil Cruz if you just look at his stat-line, slashing .233/.299/.427/.726, numbers that were all in the range of what Cruz produced. Now, Castro obviously doesn’t have the ceiling of an Oneil Cruz, but he has the ceiling of an everyday second baseman who can produce at the plate for you offensively.

I have a special place in my heart for switch hitters, Castro being one of course, and he performed about equal on both sides of the plate, slotting 6 HRs against left-handed pitching and 5 HRs against right-handed pitching. His average against righties was considerably lower, but remind yourself he had 107 more ABs against righties than against lefties, so that makes his HR and RBI numbers from both sides that much more impressive.

Castro’s strongest month and real tone setter came in August last season, seeing 72 plate appearances and slashing .318/.375/.591/.966 with 4 HRs and 6 RBIs which then propelling his power to take an uptick in September, increasing both his HR and RBI totals and cementing himself as the starting 2B… for now.

Castro’s 2023 season will be defined by his production and his job is not as safe as it may seem. Liover Peguero, Ji-hwan Bae and Nick Gonzales, and maybe even Jared Triolo, will all be knocking on the door behind Castro at some point in 2023. If Castro’s 2022 production can be replicated across an entire season, I find it hard for Derek Shelton to remove him from that spot. If he struggles, this isn’t the Pirates we’ve seen the past couple seasons that just needed bodies, they have legit prospects waiting in the wings, but at worst, Castro could be a valuable bench bat if he can’t produce to standard everyday.

OF Jack Suwinski

Bryan Reynolds was the only constant in the outfield last season and the Pirates attempted to find an answer at the corner outfield spots.

Insert Jack Suwinski, who arrived, struggled early on, then returned following a short stint in Indianapolis and stood out from a deep group of prospective outfielders.

Suwinski’s power stood out early on and continued throughout the season, logging 19 HRs and a .709 OPS in his rookie season, and for a rookie, those are not numbers you shy away from taking a deep look at.

It’s not exactly rocket science to figure out Suwinski’s biggest problems, swing and misses and strikeouts, both being a reason he was sent down after his initial call-up. He ranked in the bottom six percent in the league in strikeout rate and bottom four percent in the league in expected batting average, so Suwinski will have to improve on those numbers while maintaining and power outputs.

Ironically enough, Suwinski saw immensely better success at PNC Park last season, a ballpark that is very kind to left-handed power bats, as 16 of his 19 HRs came at home and his slash-line numbers were considerably better as well, almost polar opposites of each other if you will in terms of HRs, RBIs, walks and OBP.

Defensively, Suwinski is fine, ranking in the 71st percentile in OBA and highly in arm strength, so don’t worry too much about him holding his own in left field.

For Suwinski, much like Castro, players like Matt Fraizer, Ryan Vilade, Connor Joe, Connor Scott and Ji-hwan Bae will be waiting in the wings if he doesn’t produce. Expect the HR total to stay on pace, if not better, than last season, but his strikeout rate and swing-and-miss rate must improve before it becomes a major detriment to the offense as a whole.

SP Johan Oviedo

Coming over in the Jose Quintana trade, Johan Oviedo inserted himself into the Pirates rotation relatively quickly.

He only saw one start in 14 appearances with the Cardinals before heading to Pittsburgh, which speaks more to the depth in the rotation we saw from St. Louis last season, but every appearance of the seven he made for Pittsburgh was a start, a clear indicator the Pirates see him as a starter for now.

In those seven starts, Oviedo was steady and looked comfortable, posting a 3.23 ERA over 30.2 IP while only allowing one HR. He struggled with the free pass though, posting a 4.7 BB9, a 2.2 increase from his time in St. Louis.

Oviedo is apart of a young group of pitchers at the Pirates disposal, but with the additions of Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez in free agency, its hard to get a read on if he’ll be apart of the rotation come Opening Day or be a depth option in Indianapolis or a bullpen option. Hill and Velasquez are prime trade deadline candidates though, so I would expect Oviedo’s role to expand once those moves happen, if they do of course.

Per Baseball Reference, he’s projected to see 79.0 IP and a 3.87 ERA, and if his ERA can remain sub-4.00 as well as bringing down the walk rate and increasing strikeouts, the Pirates will have no choice but to find somewhere for him to get starts. Don’t be surprised if he is a long-relief option either as he has the stuff to produce for the Pirates wherever they may need him.

OF Cal Mitchell/OF Canaan Smith-Njigba

Remember when I talked about the options behind Suwinski earlier, well, Cal Mitchell and Canaan Smith-Njigba, keeping the theme of second-year players and dismissing Connor Joe, Ryan Vilade and other off-season additions, would be next in line.

Starting with Smith-Njigba, he broke his scaphoid bone in his wrist last season, keeping him sidelined for the remainder of 2022. He only saw 5 ABs last season, so I’m sure the Pirates want to find a way to see what they have from the former Yankees product.

Taking a look at his time with Indianapolis, he played well at the AAA level slashing .277/.387/.408/.795 before coming up to Pittsburgh. It could be difficult for him to find playing time in a now “loaded” outfield, but I would expect Spring Training to give us some answers on where Smith-Njigba will fit into the 2023 Pirates plans.

Moving to Mitchell, he saw 212 ABs in 2022, posting a .635 OPS, a measure that showed his numbers weren’t flashy. He did add 5 HRs and 17 RBIs to his statistical totals, but like Suwinski, he struggled with strikeouts from the left side of the plate.

For Smith-Njigba and Mitchell, the additions of Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Vilade, Connor Joe and the indicators that Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski being starters in clear view make either of their roles hard to figure out, but I would expect them to be backup outfield options in the event of injuries or lack of production from Suwinski.

2B/OF Tucupita Marcano

Deemed “Adam Frazier lite” by myself, Tucupita Marcano came by way of a trade for Adam Frazier from San Diego and compares to Frazier in the way of his game.

Marcano saw 177 plate appearances in 2022, batting .206, numbers that don’t bode well for him heading into 2023 with the current situation in the outfield and middle infield.

As far as his role in 2023, I imagine Marcano as no more than a valuable depth piece in spots where a single or something in the gap is needed due to his lack of power, but I am sure he’ll get some sort of opportunity seeing as Ben Cherington was high on him since the Joe Musgrove trade.

If he can find a way to replicate his minor league numbers from last season, he’d have a much larger role, but I don’t expect that to happen unless he goes on a “All-Star like” tear hitting the baseball. With the log jam and 2B and his inability to play shortstop, expect Marcano to be no more than an off-day filler for Castro or an outfield plug and play guy.

The second-year players the Pirates have will all be involved at the Major League level in 2023 in some capacity, but some roles will be bigger than others and could even determine if the Pirates take a noticeable step forward or have to reconsider areas of improvement as the season progresses.

Expect the likes of Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras to take leaps to becoming valuable MLB players and maybe even beyond that while others fight for roster spots and create intriguing Spring Training battles and force production in the Pirates lineup, bullpen and rotation rather than having a lineup full of bridge players. 2023 is slated to be the most enjoyable Pirates season we’ve seen in some time and the names listed above are valuable reasons why our excitement levels are as high as they have been in a while.

Hump Day Pittsburgh Pirates Q&A

2-15-23 – by Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Brand new weekly feature here on InsidetheBucsBasement.com. A weekly Hump Day Pittsburgh Pirates Q&A with yours truly.

I’ve done these before, I’ve even done some FAQs because some questions can get repetitive, but I think there are a ton of smart fans out there, and I want you to tell me what you want to hear about. Ask me a question about the team, the league, a rule, what a stat means, or straight up point me at a story you don’t think is being covered enough. This thing goes as you go.

I’m committing to this being a weekly feature at least through the end of the season, but if you all keep providing, so will I.

All of these questions came from asking for some questions from one Facebook group and my personal Twitter/FB. So when I open this up, I don’t think we’ll struggle to get material.

Let’s go!

Question 1

Bill Lauris
Another factor –may– be that now the pitchers have a clock. It’ll be interesting to know your thoughts about who it may help more the hitter or pitcher?

We might as well start with a tough one right? Bill, first of all, the implementation of this rule in the minors was fairly smooth. I talked to a couple hitters and a couple pitchers who worked with it and universally they all saw it as being fine.

Now, that’s too simple of an answer. Because when you change a rule in the Majors, in many ways you simply present more things coaches and scouts can find a way to take advantage.

Let’s say you’re a baserunner and your coach has noted that this pitcher almost always delivers to the plate with 2 seconds left on the clock. You already know the pitcher is limited on how many times they can step off too. I could see some gamesmanship here being played.

All in all, if it’s called strictly from both the pitcher and hitter in the box side of things, it ideally should just slightly speed up the game, and I’d hope by July we don’t notice it.

Where I think we won’t be able to avoid noticing though is the post season. There is so much drama built up in that pitcher staring in readying himself for what might just be the most important pitch of his life. The hitter feels his stare and suddenly has to call time and tighten those gloves all while the runner at second is dancing off the bag and the ballpark is deafening. That beautiful drama might pay a bit of a price, but if it’s handled right, it should be advantage nobody.

Question 2

Mark Witzberger

Do you ever look through the different Pirate groups to see what’s being talked about for your future posts? And if so are the groups very different or pretty similar? Add to that question the responses that you get to your posts specifically.

The short answer is, yes. I want to write about what fans want to read about, so if one topic is dominating conversation, yeah, I’ll peruse the boards and see what’s going on. All the groups are different, some are essentially Bob Nutting hate boards, others just want all positivity all the time. It really depends on the moderators when it comes to Facebook anyway.

That said, I don’t really tailor anything to those differences. I write what I think or know to be true, some people won’t like that, some will as evidenced by your third question.

Responses are a mixed bag honestly. Some people will spend almost as much time as I do writing in the first place to comment and I’ll be honest, I’ve had more than a few change my mind or at the very least think of an angle I missed. Those are great. Some you can just tell didn’t read, in fact that’s the vast majority unfortunately.

Not because I care if anyone reads per se, but as someone that really does value comments it’s just a bit deflating they bothered to comment but in reality just wanted to get their “joke” out there somewhere. In my younger days doing this I probably fought back on these, now I just kinda move on.

There are some commenters who are consistent. They consistently comment, regardless of subject and they absolutely did read, but all roads always lead back to their point of focus. Talk about Ji-hwan Bae, somehow Hayes not being an All Star hitter creeps in. Talk about the Starting rotation, sure enough, there’s a way to work Hayes not hitting in there.

I guess to answer that last part best, yes, responses have caused me to write on a subject again. Zachary Kerr on Facebook in particular is incredibly detailed in his comments, and he almost never fails to get me thinking of a subject at least with a new data point or angle. I can’t begin to tell you how valuable that kind of stuff is. You can get trapped in an echo chamber doing this at times if you aren’t careful.

Question 3

Thomas Glovier

Hey Gary. Q: Can the Pirates be 10 wins (or more) better this season than they were last year?

If they aren’t Derek Shelton will be looking for a new job in 2024. Yes, they absolutely should be 10 wins better. They have depth, experience and many of the young players aren’t rookies anymore.

Now, if they lose someone like Reynolds, Keller, Cruz to long term injury, that’s obviously going to take a hit, but they have enough to survive just about anything else and with the new balanced schedule, they get to play ALL the bad teams in the league, not just the NL and whatever division they were lucky enough to draw from the AL.

The NL Central also isn’t a juggernaut, they should have enough to stay in the fight with all of them. Not for overall record, but game in and out, there won’t be a lot they will feel like they’re out of before first pitch.

Yes. I’m not ready for a prediction yet, but I think expecting a 10 game improvement is a good starting point.

Question 4

Mark Witzberger

Every player should have off-season goals that to many of us seem obvious- Cruz to work on his throwing and greatly reduce his errors, Suwinski to hit that lefty breaking ball. Are the players on their own to develop these plans, do the Pirates sit down with the players and develop these goals together, are plans of actions put into place? I hear a lot of how these players go to private hitting/ pitching coaches. Do they do their own thing or do they work in conjunction with Pirates? I’m sure strength and agility training is also included. Do the players come to Pittsburgh or see the coaches elsewhere at any point to get their progress evaluated? I’m just really curious about goes on in the off-season.

Mark Times 2! Yes, every player is typically given some things to work on, but unless there is an injury to deal with, the team doesn’t typically hold their hand. Every player has private instruction they like, or guys they like to work out with. Some go to IMG Academy, Some go to places that specialize in adding velocity, or crafting swing planes.

Think about a guy like Suwinski, you rightly say he needs to work on hitting that lefty breaking ball, well, he can practice against a lefty all Winter long, but the chances he’s facing Clayton Kershaw is fairly low. So more likely you’d see him told to work on staying back on the ball, or covering the plate away. Something more generic.

They check in, but typically only injured players or guys who live here tend to do a lot of visiting Pittsburgh, in fact Shelton himself doesn’t visit Pittsburgh a ton unless he’s asked to for an event of some sort.

The best indication that this stuff happens is really last off season. Coaches literally weren’t permitted to interact with or check in with players due to the lockout, and both sides of that equation complained about the difficulties that caused.

To be very clear though, no MLB coaches have any issues with players seeking out their own instruction or training in the offseason. Now, if you’re supposed to be a base stealer and you come into camp with 20 pounds of new muscle thinking you’re a homerun hitter like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League 2, there’s probably a discussion.

Further, even though pitchers and catchers literally report today, many young players and even some vets have already been there for weeks.

Pitchers are typically given some dos and don’ts, and hitters are typically just asked to show up in shape and find a way to see some live pitching. For many that will be a local high school, or college, maybe even an MLB friend they live near.

Players and team for sure work together, but how tight or loose the plan is depends on a ton of factors, like the coach and player individually matter for this, and for many, it’s case by case.

Question 5

@Pitt_Panther_

Mitch Keller is a UFA in 2026. Do you see the Pirates looking to move him as early as next year? I would think if the idea was to extend him, theyd have done it this offseason since if he puts together a season like his 2nd half last year, hes priced himself out of Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I actually wrote about this a little just a couple weeks ago. Beyond Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller is probably the number one priority.

It’s hard for me to call it a mistake to be in this position with Mitch though, he took quite some time to develop, and bluntly, he still at this point hasn’t done anything but put together half a good season. I’d like to see him show he doesn’t need to round into form this year before jumping up and down but I too am a Pirates fan Sir, and I equally feel the pressure to see them lock up a guy before he gets too expensive.

That thinking being the first thing we experience when a kid even looks half good is one of the biggest crimes this franchise has perpetrated on this fan base. In reality, they should let him play out this season, see what his arb figure looks like and outbid it in AAV, see if they can get him locked up through 2028 or 2029.

They and Mitch worked hard to develop him into a decent starting pitcher, so you’d like to see the Pirates actually get to enjoy it for a while.

My gut says he’ll be here through 2024 one way or another, if only because they need him and won’t be ready to move on, but it’s not inconceivable they could be ready for life without him by the offseason following 2025.

I think following this season, an AAV of 12-14 might get it done, and if that’s too much for a top of the rotation pitcher, fold the franchise.

Question 6

Dale Merchant

I have always wondered what criteria is used to determine prospect invites to Spring Training? The decisions sometimes seemed random to me, but there has to be solid analysis behind it.

Good question Dale. It’s going to seem like a bit of a copout but it really depends on the GM. For instance, Neil Huntington really only invited prospects he felt had a chance to make the club at some point that year, but Ben Cherington invites a good chunk of the top 30 prospects, and without doubt invites every first rounder they select.

Now, that doesn’t always mean it makes sense on the surface. Take for instance Mason Martin, he’s not invited and even I was like, WTF? Look into this, and ask around a little and I come to find out why. He simply doesn’t fit into the at bat plan. the Pirates have Ji-man Choi, Carlos Santana, Connor Joe, and Malcom Nunez that they for sure want to get X amount of at bats, further, they have a specific plan they want to work with Mason on, and it doesn’t involve watching him launch balls into the gulf stream that would be casual fly balls at PNC.

They have 7 catchers invited to camp, 2 of which have zero chance to make this club Henry and Endy, but even so, that’s 7 squatters who they have to work through. I could argue Abrahan Gutierrez should have gotten an invite too, but where?

So sometimes it’s about space, sometimes it’s about at bats, but one thing it’s never about is whether they “like” a kid or not. If the team doesn’t believe a guy is ever going to make the club, they certainly aren’t scared to move on.

Circling back to Mason, I can honestly tell you, the club spent more individual time with him than any other single hitter in Spring, and it didn’t take. This call could be as simple as maybe they feel they filled his head with too much in 2022.

Hope that answers the question adequately, I get what you’re asking, but the simplest way I can put it is, there is no fits all formula.

Question 7

Alan Bellomo

What are some of early signs that this team is going to do reasonably well this year and what are the indications that this season is going off the rails? (Opening day through mid-May)

Well Alan, it’s too easy to say the record, but I will say, the schedule in April starts easier, and ends hard as hell. If things are going well, they’ll rack up damage on the lesser teams like the Reds, and even Red Sox and hang in there against the Cards and Astros. For me, a big key to getting the expected improvement this season is to avoid long losing streaks. They had far too many last year, and with this pitching staff, they should be capable of keeping those stretches to a minimum.

So I’ll say if you get to mid May and they haven’t had a losing streak go longer than 3 games, great sign they’ll do reasonably well especially looking at some of the teams they have in that stretch. Going off the rails obviously the opposite of what I said for the first part, but also seeing the offense continue to adopt many of the philosophies they did last year. Seeing hitter after hitter take two strikes before looking like they’re interested in hitting was an issue all year, and if that’s how they universally approach hitting again, in my mind the season won’t go well.

Pirates Spring Training Preview With Jason Mackey

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-uav7h-1390886

Craig sits down with Jason Mackey-Pirates Beat Writer from the Post-Gazette-to discuss Position Battles in Spring Training, The Starting Rotation, the Bullpen Overload, Ke’Bryan Hayes’ Potential and Bryan Reynolds. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!