Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Odd Men Out

2-14-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Before anyone gets too bent out of shape, because their favorite prospect is on the list and/or you decide to jump to the conclusion that I am writing everyone of these guys off, let’s remember who I probably would have had on the Top 5: Odd Men Out last year.

Well, Cal Mitchell for starters.

After having not been added to the 40-Man ahead of the 2021 Rule 5 Draft-that would never take place-Mitchell was behind Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski and Travis Swaggerty for a spot on the roster; but he still got his shot before everyone except Suwinski. And, it’s extremely likely that he will get another one this year. All it took was continuously playing well, to the point where the Pirates and Ben Cherington couldn’t ignore it anymore.

Over his first 138 plate appearances with the Indians, Mitchell slashed .306/.362/.500 with 5 homers and a 125 wRC+; all while striking out 14.5% of the time. And, even though his first few cups of coffee in the Majors were less than spectacular, Mitchell would perform well-once again-each time he returned to Indianapolis; ultimately forcing his way back onto the Pirates Roster.

That’s what these guys need to do; if they ever want to get their shot(s).

1) Mason Martin-1B/DH

The kid can hit the ball a mile. No one’s doubting that.

Ever since Martin appeared on the radar of Pirates Fan back in 2019, after blasting 35 home runs across Greensboro and Bradenton. Then in 2020-even without Minor League Baseball-Martin impressed many by targeting the roller coaster over the right field wall, at the Alternate Site in Altoona.

When MiLB returned in 2021, the onslaught on the coaster continued, as hit 22 homers for the Curve that season; adding another 3 during an eight game stretch in Indianapolis at the end of the season.

In spite of all of this excitement surrounding his power, there was another subject matter that kept popping up; on his way up through Pittsburgh’s Farm System. For any Pirates Fan-who has paid even the least amount of attention to prospects-Martin’s strikeout rate has been an almost constant point of contention.

Prior to this last season, Martin and the Pirates began working on his approach, in an attempt to cut down on his strikeouts, that had increased at each level; from 29% in Greensboro to 34.2 % in Altoona, with a jump to 37% during his brief Indianapolis appearance.

Unfortunately for Martin, following an extremely hot start to 2022-.303/.349/.671 with 4 homers, 16 total extra base hits and a 157 wRC+ in 83 plate appearances-he entered on of the biggest slumps of his professional career. Over the next 280 times he came to bat, the 23 year old slugger slashed .161/.243/.335 with a 50 wRC+ and a 40% K-rate.

Over the last two months of the year he did rebound slightly by compiling a .242/.326/.401 with a 90 wRC+ and a 32% K-rate, but the damage was already done to his overall numbers.

Nevertheless, it could be something for him to build upon heading into 2023; although this time around he will have some competition in the forms of Malcom Nunez and potentially Matt Gorski.

In addition to the possible position battle in Triple-A there are also legitimate first basemen on the Major League Roster, instead of what we saw last season; which pretty much means, the path isn’t as clear.

2) Carter Bins-C

After being acquired by the Pirates as part of the Tyler Anderson Trade with Seattle back in 2021, Bins continued to experience struggles at the Double-A Level.

In his time between Arkansas and Altoona he slashed .143/.288/.233 with two homers and 54 wRC+, before eventually being promoted to Indianapolis on May 10th, 2022: which just happened to coincide with Roberto Perez causing a chain-reaction with his injury.

When he arrived in Indianapolis, things didn’t get much better; but he did show some pop by knocking 10 over the fence for the Indians.

He also showed off a pretty decent arm, and good receiving and blocking skills behind the plate.

However, the bat never fully came around, as he slashed .208/.297/.408 in 71 games and 279 plate appearances.

And now, Endy is set to be right there in Indianapolis with him; as Henry Davis potentially nips at both their heels.

A position that was once lacking in the system, is now starting to show off its depth; and with a few prospects on the cusp to boot.

3) JC Flowers-RHP

From centerfielder to starter, and now to the bullpen. Needless to say it’s already been one hell of journey for Flowers. Yet, for that journey to continue the former Florida State Seminole will need to build upon last season to push his way past some other relief arms, who may have a little stronger footing.

All in all, Flowers put together a pretty solid year in Double-A Altoona by posting a 2.88 ERA with a 1.180 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 68.2 innings.

With two above average pitches-a 55 grade mid-90’s fastball and a 60-grade upper-80’s wipeout slider-Flowers has show the ability to completely baffle hitters. However, he has struggled with command and control often enough that there are some concerns about their effectiveness with more advanced hitters; as his strikeouts have consistently decreased, while his walks have increased each time he has moved up a level.

Triple-A is set to be the proving ground for Flowers, as well as a few other pitchers with similar bullpen profiles.

4) Cody Bolton-RHP

Turn the clock back to 2021, when Bolton was set to begin the season in Altoona, as one of the Pirates Top Pitching Prospects.

Regrettably, this entire season was lost-just like the previous one-after surgery was required to repair a medial meniscus tear in his right knee; suffered during workouts prior to Opening Day.

At the time the last anyone saw from Bolton were his slight struggles following a mid-season promotion to Altoona back in 2019. Over his final 40 innings of the season, the then 21 year old posted a 5.85 ERA and a 1.325 WHIP with 33 strikes and 6 homers allowed.

When Bolton finally took the mound again this past season, I’m not sure exactly what anyone expected from the now 24 year old.

For the most part much of the work he put in this past year was fairly promising, as he bounced around the bullpen; pitching in every single role imaginable.

One game he would be a starter, the next he was used in long relief, then he would be an opener and after that he would be set-up man. In one game he was even asked to be the closer. 

In the end he had a 3.09 ERA, a 1.282 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 75.2 innings to show for his hard work and flexibility.

So what role(s) do the Pirates see him playing in 2023? Honestly, I have no idea.

Right now it seems like all of the rotation spots at the Major League and Triple-A Levels are pretty much spoken for; which would make a repeat of the Swiss Army Knife Role the most likely scenario.

5) Liover Peguero-SS/2B

Pirates Fans have regularly questioned Oneil Cruz’s ability to stick at shortstop; often pushing him to the outfield corners. In his place Pegeuro’s name was always one of the first ones mentioned, as his successor.

This was until he batted .259 with .692 OPS with 10 homers, and a 21.3% K to 5.6% BB-rate in Altoona this past season.

Now they don’t know what to think. Maybe everyone’s expectations were a little to high; because nothing about his game says he going to be a bad professional baseball player.

Over the last two seasons he has taken the field being almost 3 years younger than the average player at each level.

Maybe he just needs to develop and mature. He’s still only 22.

The ability is in there. We’ve all seen it.

I mean, I don’t know of too many 21 year-old shortstops that can turn on a ball like this.

Conclusion

Some of these guys might be down, but they’re not necessarily out; while others may be reallocated into other positions and/or roles.

To me this speaks to the amount of depth within the system that is now approaching the Majors; creating a legit competition for places on the roster.

Sure, I would like to have more high ceiling prospects within that group; but I also can’t act like someone won’t emerge, and take the bull by the horns.

In the end we just kind of have to sit back, and watch it play out. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t.

Only time will tell.

NL Central Divisional Balance Breakdown

2-14-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

Jim Bowden recently created a stir by posting potential league/divisional changes as a result of adding two new teams. This would relocate the Pirates to the “Mid-Atlantic” division, along with the Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals and the expansion Charlotte baseball team.

This got me thinking.

The Pirates have been members of the National League Central Division since its creation in 1994. In that time, they have accumulated zero total division championships:

St. Louis: 12

Chicago: 6

*Houston: 4

Cincinnati: 3

Milwaukee: 3

Even Houston has four wins, and they haven’t been part of the division in ten years! Milwaukee has three after joining the division in 1998.

Initially, the Pirates were slated to stay in the NL East with the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Montreal Expos (now Washington Nationals) and newly created Florida Marlins. The Braves would have moved from the NL West (yes, this eastern time zone team was in the west until less than 30 years ago) to the newly created Central division, but their ownership requested to shift to the East, taking advantage of the close proximity of a new opponent to create a rivalry, and the Pirates relented.

And so began our misery.

But this article isn’t intended to dwell on the past failures of the Bucs in this division, but to look to the future and how we stack up against the competition currently:

St. Louis Cardinals (93-69):

Gains: C Willson Contreras

Losses: C Yadier Molina, 1B Albert Pujols, SP Jose Quintana, OF Corey Dickerson, RHP Alex Reyes

The only years in recent history where the Pirates were good – and I mean REALLY good – the Cardinals were just a little bit better, besting us for the division title 2013-15 behind a solid rotation, strong defense, timely hitting, and a catcher who brought out the best in his staff – if perhaps also the worst in opposing fans. A lot of that success is in the past now as their aging rotation has struggled with injuries, Yadier Molina has suited up in catcher’s gear for the last time, and the triumphant return of Pujols to the Red Birds has ceremoniously ended. Now what?

They replaced Molina with former Chicago Cub Wilson Contreras. While not as skilled defensively, his bat should be formidable in a lineup already consisting of NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt at 1B, as well as 3rd place finisher and Platinum Glove Winning 3B, Nolan Arenado.

And that’s not to mention utility infielders Tommy Edman and Brendon Donovan, both of whom are gold glove winners and who combined for over 10 WAR in 2022. Outfielders Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and top prospect Alec Burleson could also be above average parts of their lineup. (Is it expansion time yet?)

If there is hope for an achilles heel, it may be the pitching staff. Adam Wainwright is likely calling it a career after this upcoming season, but Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are all slated to be free agents next off-season. Essentially, their entire rotation could be heading for some turnover. They also recently lost their pitching coach as Mike Maddux returned to the Texas Rangers, taking back a role he held there from 2009-15.

Despite this, it’s likely the team will rebound just fine. They always do. They’ll certainly try to retain some of their departing pitchers and be aggressive in free agency to pursue others. They also have some top pitching prospects in Gordon Graceffo and Matthew Liberatore (as well as #4 prospect, per MLB Pipeline OF Jordan Walker). Will the “Cardinals Devil Magic” continue for years to come? We’ll see.

Milwaukee Brewers (86-76):

Gains: C William Contreras, 3B Abraham Toro, OF Jesse Winker, OF Blake Perkins, C Payton Henry, SS Owen Miller

Losses: C Omar Narvaez, DH/OF Andrew McCutchen, 2B Jace Peterson, LHP Taylor Rogers, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Brad Boxberger, LHP Brent Suter, OF Hunter Renfroe, 2B Kolten Wong

When the Brewers traded their All-Star closer and pending free agent Josh Hader to the rival San Diego Padres during a playoff run, it raised some eyebrows. That it backfired for both teams as neither found successful results in their returns – with the Brewers missing out on the playoffs entirely and the Padres getting bounced in the first round – it makes it sting a little more for each side.

Their pitching is certainly interesting. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young contender, Brandon Woodruff could be a 1 in multiple rotations, and Devin Williams is an elite reliever. Outside of those three, it’s questionable how the rest of the staff will perform.

Christian Yelich turned into a stud for his first two years with the Brew Crew, but his contract is looking like a big hole for Milwaukee. His salary accounts for almost a quarter of their total payroll as his production has dropped precipitously. The offense has some other pieces, however, as Willy Adames has done nothing but hit since joining the team in a trade from the Rays.

Hunter Renfroe posted a serviceable season and Pirate-killer Kolton Wong continued to be a thorn in our side each time we faced off, but both were moved this off-season. Catcher Omar Narvaez departed in free agency to be replaced by all-star William Contreras, sent over in a 3-team trade with the Braves and A’s, capping a very up-and-down off-season for Milwaukee.

They have some talent in the pipeline with OF Jackson Chourio netting an 8th ranked prospect mark on MLB recently with OF Sal Frelick spotted at 30 overall, but their window to compete is shrinking quickly.

Chicago Cubs (74-88):

Gains: SS Dansby Swanson, CF Cody Bellinger, RHP Jameson Taillon, DH Trey Mancini, 1B Eric Hosmer, RHP Brad Boxberger

Losses: C Willson Contreras, LHP Wade Miley, OF Jason Heyward

Likely the most improved team in the division, Cubs took the losses of Wade Miley and Wilson Contreras and turned around to sign Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini, Cody Bellinger and Eric Hosmer. That’s a pretty impressive off-season by any metrics.

These new acquisitions join an offense powered by Nico Horner and Ian Happ, with a pitching staff anchored by Marcus Stroman. Despite the fresh blood and decent foundation, the team still has some potential pitfalls.

Kyle Hendricks, a mainstay in the Cubs rotation for nearly a decade, missed most of last season with a shoulder strain and could start the 2023 season on the shelf as well. Patrick Wisdom had a solid season at 3B, but posted a strikeout rate above 34%, ranking 2nd in the NL with 183 over just 134 games. The bullpen is a real who’s who – in that I don’t know who most of these guys are.

Many of the new adds could be really good, but there’s always risk involved, as the team could be taking a big step towards contending or stumbling through the season with a few anchor contracts.

Cincinnati Reds (62-100):

Gains: 1B/OF Wil Myers, C Luke Maile, C Curt Casali, SS Kevin Newman, RHP Luke Weaver

Losses: LHP Mike Minor, 3B Mike Moustakas, RHP Chase Anderson, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Justin Wilson, C Austin Romine, 2B Donovan Solano, RHP Dauri Moreta, OF Aristedes Acquino

For a team which lost 100 games in a season for the first time in 40 years, they seem to be at a standstill on how to avoid repeating this “achievement.” Like the Brewers, the Reds have one player taking up a substantial percentage of their payroll and preventing the team from making moves to address glaring holes on the team.

Joey Votto has had some AMAZING seasons with Cincinnati, but the $25M he’s making this season is a huge bite for a fairly small market team. At least he should be healthy this year, which is more than the team could say about last season. He made the same amount but spent much of the season riding the pine and preparing for his post-playing career in the broadcast booth.

The offense is returning only one player who posted more than 1 WAR with the team last year (Tyler Stephenson – 1.5). The addition of Wil Myers could provide some pop in the lineup. Great American Ballpark should provide a setting for his bat to bounce back but otherwise, not much to be excited about this off-season.

The pitching, on the other hand, is something to behold – led by a number of rookies. Hunter Greene threw more pitches of 100+ MPH than anyone else in baseball last season. Southpaw Nick Lodolo had a solid season, notching a 3.66 ERA in 103.1 innings with a 29.7% K rate. Alexis Diaz posted a miniscule 1.84 ERA over 59 games out of the bullpen, basically solidifying his spot as the closer heading into 2023.

They also have a pair of top shortstop prospects on the way, as 14th ranked Elly de la Cruz and 17th ranked Noelvi Marte look to rise quickly through the system. Both have a chance at seeing some time on the roster this season.

For now, however, it looks like the Reds will be relegated to the NL Central basement.

I’m not saying that the Pirates have made enough moves to put them into contention this season. As I advised in last week’s article, a lot would have to go right for a shot at ‘Buctober’ in 2023. But on the other hand, no team is perfect.

The Cardinals failed to solidify their rotation, and they have had a number of injuries to existing starting pitchers, many on the cusp of free agency. The Brewers, arguably, got worse this off-season and have an inconsistent offense that keeps taking steps backwards. Chicago is relying on somehow fixing Cody Bellinger, having Seiya Suzuki take a step forward, and Dansby Swanson’s career year in 2022 to be part of a trajectory and not a blip. And the Reds, well…I think I’ve said enough about them.

The NL Central is not the battlefield of the 2013-15 seasons, where 98 wins only guarantees you a wild card spot. It’s become more wide open.

A few games go the Pirates’ way. Prospects come up to play at or above expectations. Ke’Bryan Hayes re-finds his 2020 swing, Andrew McCutchen re-finds his 2013 glory, Rich Hill keeps drinking from the Fountain of Youth.

Maybe, just maybe, there’s a chance to finally hang an NL Central Division Championship flag at PNC Park. And while it’s not very likely, it’s much more possible than a year ago.

But hey, there’s always that Mid-Atlantic Division in the hypothetical future.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Pitchers & Catchers Incoming

2-13-23 – by Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This week, pitchers and catchers officially report to camp in Bradenton, Florida. Although, many players are already down there working, it’s still an official start to Spring activities and the switch has been flipped from Football season to Baseball season.

I love just about all sports. The NFL, and college football. Hockey, soccer, college hoops, but nothing hits me quite like the reset that every baseball season feels like once the middle of February comes along.

This one feels especially good, because for the first time since at least 2019 I don’t look at the roster thinking about which of the top 5-6 picks in the draft the Pirates might qualify for.

Let’s GO!!!

1. The World Baseball Classic

First thing to know is which Pirates including NRI players are going to be involved?

There seems to be some confusion about why the Pirates didn’t want Ji-man Choi to participate, but allowed all these other players to be involved. As I wrote in last week’s 5 Thoughts, Choi is recovering from an injury. He’s in the finishing stages of rehab, and the Pirates simply don’t want to off shore that stewardship to someone else. They want to decide when he’s ready to do X, Y and Z.

But they have no real issue with players participating. In fact, MLB itself is extremely intolerant of teams protesting anyone’s participation, that’s why the Choi case was news. The Pirates had a legitimate concern and MLB agreed with their appeal.

I’m seeing quite a few local baseball fans who aren’t interested in this event at all, and I can see that, it’s traditionally poorly covered here in the states, lets talk about the event a bit, how you can watch, and why they’re trying to do this.

This graphic is from MLB.com and it gives you a quick glance at the bracket itself.

This tournament will be televised on Fox, FS1, FS2, the Fox Sports App, and Fox Deportes.

This is all part of MLB’s initiative to promote the game worldwide, but as so many sports tend to do when trying to gain international traction, they forget the already existing fans.

What this is, is a collection of some of the best players in the world, playing baseball in a quick tournament format and it’s geared toward building some national pride as well as introducing some of the game’s stars to markets that may or may not even know who Bryce Harper is.

The Olympics used to help with this, but collectively bargaining participation of everyone in the middle of the MLB season has been difficult to keep steady. For instance it last happened in 2020, and is expected to return in 2028 and even then, it may be more prospect laden than star studded.

Watch if you like, complain if you must, but do keep in mind, to some parts of the world, this is quite literally one of the most exciting events on the calendar. In America, who is starting 3B for the lowly Reds is probably more exciting.

These things take time to take hold, if they ever do, but talk to a player who’s participating and you might at least see why it’s important to them.

2. Speaking of Catchers, There’s One More Now

Because the Pirates signed Austin Hedges to be the clear starter at catcher, most of our conversations surrounding the position have been about the backup role.

The Pirates brought in another for that competition, Kevin Plawecki. Add him to Tyler Heineman, Jason Delay, Carter Bins, and if you’re still someone who thinks the Pirates weren’t serious about Endy and Henry starting in the minors, them too. They’ll all be there, but the competition doesn’t really involve all of them.

Plawecki has an established relationship with Rich Hill, and while that alone won’t earn him the gig, his experience just might.

He certainly didn’t have a good 2020, but his career numbers do look like an offensive upgrade. OBP of .313 and a .654 OPS is superior to anyone competing with him.

Keep in mind too, the Pirates are very likely to carry a taxi squad catcher for the majority of the season, while that’s not likely to be Plawecki, it certainly could be Heineman or Delay.

Defensively, he’s a pretty good framer, but his pop time is brutal. How brutal? Well he’s in the 1 percentile. Of the 84 catchers who were measured in 2022, Plawecki comes in 82nd. For perspective Tyler Heineman clocks in at 72 and ranked 19th for this metric and his framing is comparable.

With baseball’s new rules, especially the larger bases and limiting the number of step offs a pitcher can have, a catcher who’s quick to second might outweigh the 10-15 percentage points in batting average or OBP.

Add in Heineman’s elite exchange time of 0.63, which literally led the league, and defensively, I’m not sure Heineman can be beat back there for the role.

Now if you just want to add some offense, knowing you have Hedges back there for the defensive stalwart, maybe that’s how you make this call, but if it comes down to which one gives you more back there, at least historically, Heineman is far superior.

One more thing about Plawecki, he’s slower than Moses in January. I add this in because if I’m giving him credit for having a better OBP, I feel I have to point out he’s a station to station runner.

Either way, I appreciate bringing in another veteran option on an MiLB contract. We of course don’t know yet if he has an opt out but the fact the team built in a structure for paying Plawecki much more should he make the MLB roster, my assumption would be yes. That’s all it is though, an assumption. If it turns out he does have that option, it may effect the decision they make, but if the defensive differences between he and Heineman are as stark as they look on paper, the club really needs to just make a good decision here.

3. It’s Just Not the Same

I’m not one to preach to you about how all your memories of pitchers racking up 20 wins in 275 innings are worthless. I’m not going to beat you over the head with the fact few are going to break into MLB by hitting .325 with 95% of those hits being singles.

That said, folks, it’s just not the same game.

MLB has changed the rules every single year for decades now, but more than anything, players chase money.

The big money in baseball is hitting homeruns, and kids know it. It may not make for the best team, it may not make them the best player they can be, but it will get them paid.

Look at a guy like Luis Arraez who was just traded from the Twins to the Marlins. He’s played 4 seasons in MLB, just won a batting crown with a .316 batting average and has a career AVG of .314. he doesn’t really steal bases or hit for power, but he hits and gets on base. He’s a really good hitter.

But be really honest, do you consider him to be one of the best players in the game?

He’s been a Silver Slugger, a batting champ, a 1X All Star, plays a bunch of infield positions, but how many guys do you name before you get to him on your list of “greats”?

Kids see this even at the very lowest levels.

Recently I spoke to Scott Seabol on my podcast and we broached this subject. Scott has been an hitting instructor with both the Yankees and the Marlins and played the game at the MLB level himself so I value his thoughts here. He essentially said, no matter how much you try to coach guys into looking for contact more, even while pointing to MLB success stories like the Houston Astros who make contact more often than most, they still see that guy who just got 18 million with a 29% K rate.

Maybe these rule changes will start to chisel away at some of this thinking and increase the value of playing the game differently, but for right now, it’s not just coaches asking everyone to be the same. It’s not just organizations feeling everyone needs to swing out of their shoes.

Players themselves need to believe more contact by way of sacrificing power will still get them paid.

Scott went so far as to tell us a story of a player who was clearly about to get cut due to age and K rate. When trying to get him to hunt a bit more contact, he told his coach, “we’ll have to agree to disagree”.

Folks, the game has changed, and so have the players.

Look back fondly at all the greats you grew up with, but understand, there’s a different definition for “great” today. Especially to the players.

Doesn’t make it right. Doesn’t mean that a team won’t come along and revitalize some of the small ball doctrine many of us grew up with, but just like it didn’t get here overnight, it isn’t going back overnight either.

4. Pirates Early Schedule

Almost every year the Pirates seem to start on the road, and every season the Bucs seem to have at least one day off per week for the entire month of April.

Well, still starting on the road against Cincy March 30th, but after that, they’ll be off March 31st, and April 6th before the home opener on the 7th. They won’t be off again until April 24th.

Typically the Pirates have no need for a full five man rotation at the beginning of the season, but with that aggressive start, they simply can’t enter the season hoping weather spares them having it sorted.

Bottom line, there won’t be much to be gained by starting out with an extra BP arm, but my guess is someone like Velasquez just misses his first turn or they just give everyone extra rest and stay on a 5 man rotation regardless.

Opening the season against the Reds, Red Sox and White Sox, man you could definitely start harder. Those opening 9 games are quickly followed by a significantly harder stretch featuring the Astros, Cardinals and Dodgers.

April looks like it could be a very up and down experience for the club, but if they manage to come out if it with a decent record, I think we’ll all feel a bit better about the overall predictions for 2023.

5. Plans for This Season on the Site

Before we get into it, let me start by saying, thank you all for following along with us here at Inside the Bucs Basement. Everything we do here is free, we don’t put ads on the site, it’s just been our goal to provide as much unbiased content as Craig Toth and I can possibly pull together. Over the years we’ve added other writers like Ethan Smith, Anthony DiFilippo, Corey Shrader, Joe Boyd, Justin Verno and very recently Michael Castrignano.

Last year, Craig and I felt we couldn’t adequately cover every game and we decided to scrap it rather than handle it poorly and ultimately not meet our own standards. You spoke though, and this year, we’re going to bring it back.

We’ll leverage all the writers we can as well as Craig and myself to get back to delivering game in and game out coverage of the team.

I’d also like to talk about our editorial schedule a bit. Every Monday since this site has launched I’ve put forward our signature Five Pirates Thoughts at Five that you are reading right now, and Craig has always posted his Through the Prospect Porthole pieces as well. This year, we want to formalize that a bit.

Mondays we’ll have 5 at 5
Tuesdays we’ll have Craig’s Top 5 Prospect performers (or any specific trait he wants to cover)
Wednesdays Justin will return with his Top 15 Prospect report and I will start a weekly Q&A
Thursdays Craig will be all over his Through the Prospect Porthole piece, a deep dive into a specific prospect or group of prospects

Now that’s what we want to lock in on, but we’ll of course have Justin and Corey or Justin and Joe or hell maybe all three of them put together their very popular Two Guys Talkin’ Trades pieces. Probably closer to the deadline, but who knows, maybe we’ll be talking about picking up something this time around.

Ethan and Michael will contribute some editorials, player portrait type pieces, and I’ll of course keep trying my best to write random opinion pieces and news entries.

Very soon, Craig and I will start working on our season preview piece where we formally predict the record and some things we see happening as the year plays out.

It’s a busy little site and while it remains pro bono we certainly hope it doesn’t feel that way. We take this site seriously because quite frankly, we started it to try to provide information not guided by what got clicks, but what needed to be said.

You have made that count, because this little site has grown exponentially over the years and everyone who has contributed and continues to, well, your dedication to an endeavor that brings you nothing but work, can’t say enough about you.

I should also add, Craig will continue his long running podcast Bucs in the Basement, I’ll keep making my Pirates Fan Forum with Jim Stamm on DK Pittsburgh Sports. Ethan Smith is the host of Locked on Pirates, and Michael Castrignano hosts 412 Double Play Podcast.

Follow all of us on Twitter or Facebook, and get me your questions whenever you think of them. Making those Q&A pieces work requires you staying engaged.

Happy Spring everyone, MUCH more to come.

Ke’Bryan Hayes Must Be More Than a Glove

2-12-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s time for Ke’Bryan Hayes to emerge, and regardless of the injuries he’s suffered, the adjustments he’s struggled to implement due to them or any other factor, for this team to truly improve, Hayes needs to be one of the more noticeable figures leading the charge.

We all know what he is defensively, a Gold Glove candidate, clear cut, every time he’s healthy enough to play 3/4 of a season. We’ve seen it, we know it, we don’t have to guess anymore.

With the bat, it’s been a much more difficult journey.

Most fans first really saw Ke’Bryan when he made his debut during 2020, and what a debut it was. In 24 games he put up a .376 batting average and an OPS of 1.124. Not only were these numbers incredible for a Major League rookie, they were incredible for Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had always been a good hitter, but not anywhere close to that level of production.

It probably set a false expectation with the fan base to a degree but at the same time just knowing that was in there, well, it makes you feel like it could be unlocked doesn’t it?

Think back to that incredible stretch Josh Bell had with the Pirates back in 2019. He was truly remarkable, for a while there he was drawing national comparisons to names like Mantle, and Murray. He was hitting homeruns that made Pirates fans call back on Stargell. And then he didn’t.

We knew it was in there, so did Josh, but he was never really able to quite get back to swinging the bat near that level of excellence.

Hayes did it for a much shorter period of time, and with admittedly less gaudy power.

He picked up right where he left off in 2021. Drilling a homerun on opening day and then injuring his wrist in a freak incident sliding back into first base on a pickoff attempt.

He’d return in 2021, but not look anywhere near like the Hayes we’d watched play in that 2020 spurt.

Soft tissue injuries especially to the wrists can be devastating for hitters. For Ke’ it almost entirely took away his ability to pull baseballs with any authority. Robbing him of the gap power he always had, and making him every bit a one dimensional hitter. He still got on base but he was rendered an average MLB hitter, and that’s if I feel like being kind.

His defense didn’t suffer.

Entering 2022, we were told the wrist was no longer an issue, he’d taken the offseason to get right there and let it heal, but he struggled to drop some of the bad habit adjustments he’d made in order to deal with his new reality not being capable of really pulling a ball.

By the time he started turning on the baseball a bit more, boom, back injury. It would linger all season long, even causing him to take more games off down the stretch than he or the team would like.

Again, the defense didn’t suffer.

2023 will now be the third full season since his debut in 2020 and the third year in a row we as fans, and the Pirates as a coaching staff are hoping and praying a healthy Hayes will emerge.

That’s been elusive to say the least. In fact, had the Pirates not extended him when they did, we might be talking much more about some prospects who could out hit him and potentially steal the job from him.

For the Pirates to really improve, they need the man they chose to give their richest contract to, to prove it was the right call.

It’s not crippling money, really isn’t, but even so, when you as an organization feel that strongly, well, you want them to be right. I can make an argument that defensively he makes up for it, but as much as baseball has changed, you still need bats at the corners.

If you want a reason for optimism, and I bet you do, here it is.

He’s still hitting the baseball hard. What he needs to do is get back to hitting the ball hard to all fields, and especially the gaps.

That’s the type of hitter he’s always been, and that’s the type of hitter the Pirates need him to be.

When I make my lineup, and I’m speaking only for myself here, I honestly can’t scratch his name on the card before the 6th spot. If Hayes gets going, man does it lengthen this lineup. He’s such a swing man for this whole thing.

If Hayes hits like even an above average player, say top half of all third basemen, this team will do some damage on offense. If he doesn’t, you really do start wondering where you can really “hide” his bat.

That’s not a thought you want to have with someone you’ve paid into being a permanent feature. There are more bats coming, and if one day we look at the lineup and a lock down third baseman with a .260 AVG, 8-10 HR, 20 or so Doubles, 15-20 stolen bases and an OPS in the high .600’s is your biggest issue, hey, you’ll take it, but you’d much prefer feeling you can praise the player, as opposed to the ratty glove he refuses to replace.

Hayes is reportedly fully healthy. Another year removed from the wrist injury, a full off season removed from the lower back issues, and he’s spent time with Frank Thomas and Prince Fielder this off season too, gee, I wonder what he might be trying to unlock.

I can honestly tell you, there isn’t another human being I’d prefer in the field at third base. By just about any measurable statistic, he’s the best. Nobody can touch his transition speed from glove to hand, his accuracy and range are unmatched. Not even Arenado.

All that said, he himself has made the spectacular in the field look so routine there is simply no way to avoid focusing on what he doesn’t do at the plate.

If you watched Hayes play in the minors, you know 2020 is the outlier, and you know it far exceeded what you expected him to do at any one point in the Bigs. Fact is though, he did it, and now it’s up to him to evolve into the hitter he can be consistently at this level.

One thing is clear, the Pirates brought in enough thump that he’s not just going to get handed the 3 or 4 spot based on reputation and paystub, not for long anyway.

The Bryan Reynolds Storyline is Changing, or Is It?

2-10-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, for some it certainly is anyway.

Some of this stuff is really about perception more than reality. We’ve had a Winter full of blustery trade proposals, narratives pushed forward about a pissed off player who hates not only his pay grade but the poor players put around him, and an aloof GM who couldn’t care less what the player wants.

Some Yankees blogs have lived almost entirely on two stories all off season, Arron Judge re-signing and the eventuality they’d get Bryan Reynolds in a trade from the hapless Pirates.

Local journalists and bloggers have run the gambit too, from overt despair and anger on to apathy that maybe he’d play until the trade deadline and now the burgeoning feeling that there might just be some hope here yet.

Here’s where we are.

  • The Pirates made an offer to Bryan Reynolds and his team to extend his contract.
  • Bryan’s Agent, CAA, who has a history of doing things just like this as a negotiation tactic, and Bryan, we can’t pretend he didn’t approve the plan here, requested a trade from the Pirates in an effort to get the team to be more serious, AKA increase their offer, add some urgency to the proceedings.
  • The Pirates almost immediately put forward that they had no desire to trade Bryan, and that he was a big part of their plan. They further said he still had a good, and even warm relationship with the team and they wish his agent hadn’t gone public with this. A bit disingenuous here if only because they made it sound like Reynolds wasn’t involved with the decision, but clearly he was or you’d have to imagine he’d have new representation.
  • The Pirates listened to trade offers, and they’ve stated publicly in the past, they listen to every offer, on everybody. For Bryan they reportedly asked for insane packages in return from the very beginning. Even sounds like some teams made some offers that might qualify, but again, no desire to move him whatsoever.
  • Two weeks ago, rival team executives started leaking they had to move on, and it simply wasn’t going to happen.
  • Last week Ben Cherington again said “Bryan will be a big part of this team” and for some reason this time it was taken as gospel. It’s literally the exact same phrase he uttered minutes after the initial news broke before the Winter Meetings, but this time it apparently meant more.
  • Finally today in the Friday Insider on DK Pittsburgh Sports (I’ll let you read it exactly for yourselves) but suffice to say, it’s shiny happy people time in Pirates land.

Now, I know my place. I’m a blogger and podcaster, not a journalist. I often don’t report things I know to be true until someone you’d believe reports it. I do that for selfish reasons, I want no parts of “breaking news”. That’s a game I can’t win quite frankly, nor do I want to, but on this, I’ve been pretty firm about the path forward all the way back to December.

I’ll remind you here that I also put forward they were not done talking about an extension, you know, just so it’s on record for when it happens and gets reported.

I don’t think it’s a given these two sides make it work, never did, but I did think getting to this point was always going to happen. In other words, I knew the player wouldn’t become a problem, and I knew the team was serious about not moving him.

The Pirates need this player, this year. As a fan, of course I think they need him a hell of a lot longer than that, but specifically this year, there was almost no chance they were going to spend as much as they did in free agency and then take a step back anyway. You can rightly point out that they still didn’t spend much, but put into perspective with what the Pirates typically do, you simply can’t pretend that didn’t matter.

If the Pirates and Reynolds do come together and get this done I think the best way we’ll be able to look back on this drama is to recognize that changing the culture of a baseball franchise isn’t easy. This whole thing could have played out in darkness if CAA had just let it play out. Part of me is glad they did what they did, ultimately the team has shown us that when they definitively say something on the record, they mean it. And Bryan has shown he’s mature enough to not allow the off field stuff to destroy his relationships. Both good things to know.

There still would have been trade proposals if CAA were quiet, there just might not have been the expectation that it would happen. Probably a lot more defiant Pirates fans thumbing their noses at everything put forward as a package. Quote tweets of everything Bryan has said about wanting to be here and being happy would be thrown back at Yankees bloggers instead of online negotiation we saw play out.

More than anything, this story has put a fog over everything else the Pirates have done this off season. Yes, mostly one year deals. Yes, mostly aging out players who aren’t going to be part of this team when and if they get where they’re going. But this team has done some good things, at the very least they’ve put together a roster that’s deeper in MLB talent than any they’ve had since 2018, and it was done with an internal knowledge that Bryan Reynolds would be a Pittsburgh Pirate in 2023.

Nobody knows how this situation or this season will turn out, but one thing is pretty clear, we can probably put this to bed for a while. He’s here, he’ll be here, and it’s finally time to play ball, both on and off the field with their best player.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Kyle Nicolas

2/9/23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Instant gratification.

Not to get too deep into a discussion concerning differences in generational status, and/or current the state of society, instant gratification often supersedes the want, need or ability to be patient.

Knee-jerk reactions.

This is often tied into the resulting emotions, which are directly related to whether or not a particular situation plays out in your favor in the short-term.

For example, Home-Grown Hero/All-Star/Gold-Glover/Silver Slugger/Most Valuable Player Andrew McCutchen was traded to the San Francisco Giants in January of 2018 for reliever Kyle Crick and some outfield prospect named Bryan Reynolds.

The spontaneous feedback was downright unpleasant.

Of course this is an extreme example; but, it also illustrates the response of fans, immediately following a move they have already decided is awful.

The same thing can be said about a trade that is looked upon favorably; often described as the fleecing of another team, or simply as one that seems to be coming at the opportune time. The Chris Archer trade would seem to fit into the later category; even if, not many would admit it right now.

In the former category-at least in the moment-was a trade that I examined the reaction to right before the New Year. At the time of the trade, Pirates Fans couldn’t believe Pittsburgh was able to get two prospects for Clay Holmes. Fast-forward approximately a year and following the DFAs of Diego Castillo and Hoy Park; where fans-and media members alike-have completely flipped to this being an absolute failure.

If the Pirates were left empty-handed, maybe I could see their point(s); or if many of them weren’t so adamant in their original and/or current stances, it really would be a big deal.

Although, these aren’t even the worst violations in the rewriting of history, simply cherry-picking what they choose to remember or acting like the door is closed on a trade when players acquired by the Pirates are still in their system.

You know, like the recent discussions I have seen circulating surrounding the Richard Rodriguez and Jacob Stallings Trades; and how we should have gotten so much more for RichRod, or that the Stallings deal is a bust because Zach Thompson was DFA’d and traded.

Are we just going to pretend that the whole league didn’t know that RichRod was into the soon to be banned sticky stuff? And, are we going to overlook that Ricky DeVito, Connor Scott and Kyle Nicolas are all set to be in the upper-Minors this season.

Bryce Wilson and Thompson may have been the guys we saw first, but this process isn’t over yet.

I am sorry for taking this much time to get to the focus of this post; and, I truly apologize to Kyle Nicolas for using this piece-which should have been one celebrating his potential-to voice my frustrations about what could be seen as an unrelated topic.

Nevertheless-on a potentially positive note-maybe more people will pay attention what this young man could do during the 2023 season, and hopefully beyond; albeit, some of you are probably still holding onto that grudge for losing Stallings.

Prior to being acquired by the Pirates, Nicolas was drafted in the Second Round-Competitive Balance Round B-out of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Ball State University. Signed for the full slot value of $1,129,700, the former Cardinal suffered the fate of almost every other pick from that year; as he didn’t get to throw his first professional pitch until 2021.

When he finally got a chance to take the mound, Nicolas initially struggled slightly at High-A Beloit; posting a 5.28 ERA, with a 1.358 WHIP. To his credit control wasn’t really a major issue as he struck out 13 batters per nine, while walking 3.6.

After 59.2 innings, a somewhat aggressive promotion was in order, as he moved up to Pensacola. Across the final 39.1 innings of the season, Nicolas’ numbers looked better on the surface, as evidenced by his 2.52 ERA and 1.220 WHIP; but he did see his walk rate raise to 5.7 as he faced more advanced/patient batters.

At this point, Nicolas made the switch to the Pirates Farm System; landing firmly in Altoona for the entire season.

As I wrote in Arms,Arms,Arms, the now 23 year-old remained consistent in spite of ending up on the IL with a shoulder injury; finishing the year with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 90.2 innings.

Currently, the consensus seems to be that he is destined to find his way into the bullpen due to his mid-90’s fastball and mid-80’s slider; which are both above average offerings. He does have a curve and a changeup, with the former being a head of the later; however, as of right now he is a still a starter.

Looking at the potential Indianapolis rotation, that has slid straight into the Minor League Six-Man, Nicolas should figure his way into a back of the rotation spot somewhere in between Mike Burrows, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Carmen Mlodzinski and Johan Oviedo.

Obviously this could change; yet that’s how I see it right now.

Pirates Positional Improvement

2-9-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

There’s been a lot of talk about the Pirates off-season and whether or not they’ve sufficiently improved a team which has lost 100+ games the previous two seasons. The team had some clear holes to fill and places where they could improve so I did a position-by-position breakdown of 2022 against the expected opening day roster for 2023, as well as discussing some depth pieces for the roster spots:

Catcher: Roberto Perez -> Austin Hedges

Perez had more offensive upside but was injury-prone and that came into play very early in the season after only 60 at-bats. Realistically, we should be comparing Tyler Heineman/Jason Delay/Michael Perez/Andrew Knapp/Jose Godoy to Hedges, which is probably a wash as that combination provided negative overall value. 

Additionally, we have players waiting in the wings to come up. Endy Rodriguez will be in Indy and could come up in June and has potential to be a game-changer. Davis is not far behind, though he has been hampered by injuries. If he’s healthy, gets a full season to work on hitting and on his receiving skills, look out because he’s a work-horse. Are we improved at this position? Maybe not yet, but probably soon.

1B: Yoshi Tsutsugo/Michael Chavis -> Carlos Santana/Ji-man Choi

In 2022, Pirates 1B combined for a net negative 4 WAR. No other team in baseball had a position on the field which more adversely impacted the team. They HAD to upgrade this position. Yoshi and Chavis are both long gone, and the Choi trade combined with the Santana signing sufficiently fulfilled that need. Choi had a 1.2 WAR in 419 PAs last season with solid defense. Santana had a 1.2 WAR in 506 PAs and while he mostly played at DH, when he was at 1B, he was above average. 

This isn’t including Daniel Vogelbach, who posted a .5 WAR almost exclusively as a DH in his 75 games before being traded to the Mets. Still, that’s potentially a 5 win swing in the positive direction (assuming they aren’t also dealt at the trade deadline) before we even see what we have with Malcom Nuñez, who could be a late season call-up. 

2B: Multiple players -> Rodolfo Castro/Ji-hwan Bae

Without looking, could you tell me who was the Pirates opening day 2B in 2022? I’ll spoil it for you, it was Hoy Park (86 OPS+ and -0.3 WAR over just 60 plate appearances). The team had a run of stability at 2B the previous decade or so as Neil Walker, Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier were consistent pieces on the team manning that position. Last year saw turns at 2B by Park, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Yu Chang (*shudders*), Diego Castillo, Josh VanMeter and the aforementioned Chavis. None of those guys are on the team anymore and all except Newman provided negative net value to the team. 

Bae earned a ten game preview and posted a 136 OPS+ while Castro had more playing time and posted solid numbers with a 1.4 WAR and a .725 OPS. This position is still potentially up on the air but these guys both improve the team’s chances immensely.

SS: Newman/Castillo/Park -> Oneil Cruz

I already talked about offensive deficiencies of last year’s middle infield starters so I’ll just talk now about Cruz, who took big strides late in the season. His overall numbers might look like extremes to both sides with a K rate of 34.9% and BB rate of 7.8% but also 17 HRs in just 361 plate appearances, exit velocity and hard hit percentage numbers in the top tier of baseball as well as elite speed. His last 13 games, he posted equal K/BB rates of 16.1% with a 129 wRC+ in 62 PAs. 

Small sample size? Obviously, but it is reflective of his ability to adjust to MLB pitching. Early on, he was struggling against sliders off the plate and started laying off down the stretch. The defensive issues are what they are – and it’s been an ongoing problem through his professional career. Hopefully that improves but the offensive upside puts him far and away above his predecessors.

3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes -> Ke’Bryan Hayes

Hey! A repeat! Hayes should have a gold glove (and probably a platinum one) in his trophy case right now but that aside, his offense hasn’t been close to what we saw in the 2020 abbreviated debut. Back and wrist injuries have certainly played a factor in that but you can’t make excuses forever. 

Hayes posted a wRC+ of 88 each of the past two seasons with sub-700 OPS. He’s provided positive WAR due to his amazing defense and he did steal 20 bags in 25 attempts but would like to see the bat show up more. His exit velocity is well above average and recent videos he posted on Instagram look like he’s added some more muscle. That’s good to see but he needs to get the bat path/launch angle geared up to utilize that power. Healthy Hayes is a very good Hayes but the defense/speed will be valuable regardless.

Outfield: Bryan Reynolds/Jack Suwinski/Ben Gamel/Tucupita Marcano/Cal Mitchell/Greg Allen/Bligh Madris -> Bryan Reynolds/Jack Suwinski/Andrew McCutchen/Connor Joe+

I didn’t include Tucker, Park, Jake Marisnick, Anthony Alford and many others who played outfield for the Bucs in 2022. There’s just too many of them. Reynolds set a career high in home runs with 27, posted a 3.0 WAR and potentially should be better this year given a bit more talent around him, which should give him better pitches to hit. 

Suwinski has some ridiculous home/away splits (.982 OPS at home vs. .395 away) which seem less sustainable long-term than a Kevin Newman Spring Training Batting Title. He also struggled against lefties, but with Cutch and Joe in the mix, they’ll be able to platoon him as needed.

Speaking of Cutch and Joe, the third OF spot could change a bit this year. Cutch could see time at DH, Joe could specifically platoon and names like Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty and others could make their way to the grass at PNC Park sometime this season. Ben Gamel notched the 2nd most plate appearances last season among all Pirates outfielders (behind Reynolds) and provided replacement level production. Here’s hoping the replacements provide better value.

Rotation: Mitch Keller/Jose Quintana/JT Brubaker/Zach Thompson/Bryce Wilson -> Keller/Roansy Contreras/Rich Hill/Brubaker/Vince Velasquez

The top five in the rotation each started 20+ games last year, with some very glaringly different degrees of success. Keller led the staff in starts and innings pitched, as well as tied for WAR (2.0, Quintana) posting a 3.21 ERA from May 18 through the rest of the season. Brubaker led with strikeouts while cutting his HR rate from 2021(5.2% to 2.6%), and posted a career best ERA. They are the only two remaining from an inconsistent staff in 2022. 

Replacing the others are free agent veterans Hill and Velasquez, who should be serviceable in the rotation, and Roansy Contreras, who logged 18 starts with a 3.79 ERA in 2022, and has shown some electric stuff. The organization was limiting his workload/service time last season leading to inconsistent starts, which can mess with a player’s rhythm. I expect he has more to show this season. Hill has proven to be a reliable arm. 2022 was his first season posting a 4+ ERA as a starter since 2009 and his FIP/xFIP were both at/around his career norms. Velasquez is a bit of a question mark as he performed much better in relief than as a starter last year (640 OPS out of the pen as opposed to a .789 as a SP). He has a good mix of pitches and, if he struggles, can transition to relief with plenty of arms in the wings. Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Quinn Priester could all see starts in Pittsburgh this season with plenty of depth behind them as well. 

Bullpen: David Bednar/Heath Hembree/Duane Underwood/Anthony Banda/Chris Stratton/Wil Crowe/Dillon Peters/Aaron Fletcher/Miguel Yajure -> Bednar/Crowe/Underwood/Robert Stephenson/Jarlin Garcia/Colin Holderman/Jose Hernandez/Chase De Jong/Yerry de Los Santos/Dauri Moreta/Yohan Ramirez/Colin Selby

Yes, we started last season with Heath Hembree in the bullpen. It’s a more youthful look to open this season with Bednar, Crowe and Underwood as the only ones returning from the opening day squad. This part of the roster was a HUGE problem last year as there were not enough arms to cover the innings throughout the season, leading to a revolving door of call-ups, DFAs and waiver claims over the course of the year. 

The depth is looking much better now as many of these names will be down in Indianapolis to start the season. Our relief corp was 2nd worst in MLB last year (behind the Diamondbacks), but could potentially provide a positive net value by end of season.

Will this team be a contender this season? That may be a stretch. A lot of things would have to go right, especially given the amount of young players on the roster. But will they be much, MUCH better than last year?

Yeah, I think so. 

Waiting For Pirates Spring Training

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-7qrsj-138515d

Craig and Chris can’t wait for Pirates Spring Training to officially start. Until then, they are talking Ji-Man Choi, Players In the Best Shape Of Their Lives and Other News Fillers That Always Come Around This Time Of Year. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Next Men Up

2-7-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

In 2021 the Pittsburgh Pirates deployed 64 players to be able to make it through the season. Then just last year the number grew to 68. When you consider the size of an active roster-with the taxi squad at times-it is still pretty astonishing that the Pirates used over twice as many players than is allowed on a day to day basis. Even if you expand the scope to the full 40-Man, the overall number could make you do a double-take.

Throughout these rosters you could find several prospects scattered in; amidst the curious off-season additions, an almost constant waiver claim cycle, Quad-A depth fillers and a handful of regulars.

Obviously this method of roster construction could continue to a certain degree; however, as you scan the depth chart-as it currently stands-there is a whole lot less of the in-between and/or questionable players, and more of the everyday regulars with budding prospects on the cusp.

Yes, I understand that not all of these prospects will develop into what we hope they could be. Yet, I’d much rather give these guys a shot, to find out what they might be; rather than continuing the usual roster churn that has taken place over the past two seasons.

And, in my opinion, that process begins with these five players.

1) Luis Ortiz-RHP

Looking across Pirates Social Media, it seems like a lot of fans would like to see Ortiz competing for the 5th rotation spot in Spring Training; with many of them wanting him to come north with the team.

Sorry, to disappoint you, but I am pretty sure you can see what’s coming; and no I don’t think it has anything to do with service time manipulation. [Ducks and covers from things being thrown at me.]

Luis Ortiz was sent into the off-season by Oscar Marin with the goal of working to polish his changeup-as was Roansy Contreras.

Now the two offering that Ortiz does have are lights out, when he is locating them. With an upper 90’s fastball that touches 100 mph, paired with a mid-80’s slider, missing bats is pretty much a guarantee.

It’s the underlying numbers I pointed out in a previous blog post that give me pause; but they are also something that can be helped out by a nicely located change-up, which he can work on in Triple-A.

But, Craig he can work on the same pitch in MLB!

Sure he can. Except, what happens if, or more likely when he gets shelled like he did in his last outing with the Pirates, or his first outing in Triple-A? Right, he ends up getting sent back down.

So, honestly just chill. He will be up at some point this season; and hopefully with a more polished change-up.

2) Endy Rodriguez-C/OF/2B/DH

Second verse, same as the first.

Yes, Endy was the best performer in the Pirates Farm System this past year; rocketing from High-A Greensboro, through Altoona and on to Indianapolis.

Across three levels he slashed .323/.407/.590 with 25 homers, a 166 wRC+ and a 19% K to 11.3% BB rate. The kid just hits; and I believe the bat could play in MLB today.

Nevertheless, he’s not going to be on the Opening Day Roster. Shelton made that abundantly clear, when asked by Alex Stumpf-Pirates Beat Writer from DK Pittsburgh Sports-about Endy, and fellow catcher Henry Davis back in December.

Of course, this set Pirates Fan Social Media on fire.

However, once again I kind of understood it; and not because I have been beaten down by the Pirates approach often deployed in dealing with prospect promotions.

In Endy’s case he has slightly over 210 innings behind the dish above High-A; meaning he’s kind of green when it comes to handling a more advanced pitching staff.

Clearly it is possible that Endy could eventually move off the position; however at this moment he is the Pirates Top Catching Prospect, with the next man in line-Davis-coming off two injury shortened season.

Endy simply needs to get in more work behind the plate.

And, it’s not a bad idea to have him doing it with Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Luis Ortiz, etc. on the mound.

I know, I know; here’s your boot sir!

3) Jared Triolo-3B/SS/OF

Having just written about Triolo in the Good With The Glove Top 5 last week, and discussing his defensive ability, so I thought this time I would focus on the bat.

In 2022-all with Altoona-Triolo put up a respectable .282/.376/.419 slash line, with 9 homers and 35 total extra base hits; a solid encore to his .304/.369/.849 line with 15 homers and 44 extra base hits in Greensboro.

However, the most positive aspect of his game-aside from his defense-is likely his 18.6% K to 10.8% BB rate between the two levels.

4) Colin Selby-RHP

Anyone calling Selby a dark-horse or under the radar prospect obviously wasn’t paying attention this past season.

Prior to suffering an oblique injury, and ending up on the IL in mid-May, Selby put up a 1.26 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. When he returned he went on to post a 2.95 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP; although he cut his BB/9 nearly in half, by going from 5.02 to 2.53.

Still, it was Selby’s pitch mix-especially his fast ball in the Arizona Fall League-that got people to take notice.

The upper-90’s eye opener, is slickly pair paired with a low-90’s changeup to keep batters on their heals. And, when they think it may be time for that change to come, his mid-80’s sharp-breaking slider is waiting to wipe them out.

Somewhat surprising, to many-yours truly not included-Selby was added to the 40-Man this off-season; which puts him on the doorstep to making his MLB Debut.

5)Matt Gorski-OF

The path for Gorski is not as clear as the other prospects on this list. Not added to the 40-Man-in spite of some concerns that he could be selected-he currently sits in a potentially crowed OF with the Triple-A Indianapolis Indians; looking to leapfrog Cal Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba and the IF/OF tandem of Tucupita Marcano and Ji-hwan Bae along the way.

None of these players have quite the power potential as Gorski, and probably only Swaggerty has the ability to cover the outfield grass like he can. But as always, we have to keep that hamstring injury in mind; especially since it caused him he to go back on the IL at the end of the season.

Another factor in what ultimately might. happen with Gorski is that he just turned 25 around Christmas. That more than anything makes me want to see Gorski get his shot, sooner rather than later.

That, and his power potential.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Samaniego-LHP

Just this past season, Samaniego was awarded with the Kent Tekulve Reliever Of The Year, for being the best bullpen arm in the Minor Leagues for the Pirates.

Plus he’s a lefty.

In 38 appearances-across 47.2 innings of work-in Greensboro and Altoona, Samaniego posted a 2.45 ERA and a 0.797 WHIP.

If there was a negative about his game, it would be his lack of strikeouts; only 47 in 42.7 innings. Nevertheless, he also only allowed opposing hitter to bat .111 against him; so, there’s that.

Also, with newly acquired Jarlin “The Elephant” Garcia and Rule 5 Selection, Jose Hernandez being the only lefties on the 40-Man, Samaniego could easily see himself sliding into the a relief role; if the former is injured and/or the later doesn’t end up sticking on the Active Roster.

Conclusion

It is tough to imagine the Pirates-and more specifically Ben Cherington-churning through the Major League Roster as much as they have over the past few seasons. On the other hand, we can’t act like there aren’t going to be any injuries, underperformances, demotions and trades.

As these occur decisions will need to be made concerning how to fill the holes in the field, rotation and/or bullpen.

Look for these prospects to be among the players called upon at some point in 2023.

My biggest hope is that, when it happens, it is because they are playing so well with Indianapolis; forcing their way onto the roster.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

2-6-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Oh man, it’s so close you can taste it. Soon we’ll get our first clips of pitchers firing the ball and the signature pop of the mitt that might as well be a starter’s pistol for the season.

As a fan first, it’s exciting just to not enter a season assuming your team is going to be lucky to climb out of the basement. I understand being guarded, the team has certainly been awful for 3-4 years now, but try not to let it ruin this experience for you.

This time you do have legitimate prospects, and legitimate players having legitimate battles and it’s the first year of what should be a nice string of such Springs.

Let’s rock.

1. NRIs (Non-Roster Invitees) to Watch For

I’m not going to name them all. First of all, you’ve all seen the list, and it’s not exactly a revelation to tell you to be excited about Quinn Priester. I’m also not going to waste time on the plethora of vets brought in to compete. This is going to be a list of some lesser known prospects that I think you’ll watch and come away from it kinda excited to see them again.

Jared Jones RHP-Starter – Jared was drafted in the 2nd round back in 2020, and he had a first round grade on him at the time. He’s had limited success in his first two seasons of minor league ball but his stuff is filthy. I expect him to ascend to Altoona this year and his changeup will help the team decide if he remains in the starter role or transitions to the pen. If he moves to the pen, look for a quick rise from him, if he remains a starter, a couple more years is realistic. Either way, this is a big arm in a small package.

Andres Alvarez RH-SS/3B/2B/OF – Alvarez is a bit old for AA. At 25 years old it’s time to make his move. At only 5′ 10″ you wouldn’t expect power to be part of his game, and before last season, it really wasn’t. In Altoona he popped 20 home runs and posted an OPS of .768. The knock again is the age, many will suggest an older kid like this should be beating the younger competition he’s facing. Late bloomer possibility here, and much like Jared Triolo, someone who has shown his glove is versatile but the bat will ultimately tell the story. It’s an important Spring for Andres and for many of you, the first time you’ll hear his name.

Kyle Nicolas RHP-Starter – Since being acquired from the Marlins as part of the return for Jacob Stallings, this big armed kid has been intriguing. A plus fastball and slider offering make him formidable, but a changeup could make him someone to watch. Much like Jones he’ll need the pitch to come along if he’s to continue being seen as a starting option as he moves closer to the show. Word on the street is he’s put in a ton of work on the offering this offseason, so eyes peeled on Kyle. I don’t do this often, but this in my mind is a future MLB arm regardless of his role when he gets here.

2. Ji-Man Choi is Off to a Rocky Start Here

Ji-Man Choi was the first player of note the Pirates acquired this offseason and since then he’s seen the Bucs bring in competition for playing time at First Base, been the only player to not agree on an arbitration number before the deadline, and now the Pirates have gotten him dropped from the South Korean squad at the World Baseball Classic.

Now, the Pirates aren’t entirely out of line here folks. Choi had elbow surgery back in November and the WBC runs from March 8th through the 21st.

The Pirates objected to his participation because he’s still undergoing rehabilitation from the surgery and that objection was upheld by the WBC Disability Review Committee before the deadline of February 7th for last minute roster changes.

Back in January Choi was quoted by reporters at the Incheon Airport before reporting to the Sates for MLB preseason activities “I feel hungry because I have never put on a Taeguk mark before”.

After the decision dropped, Choi had more to say via Yonhap News. “I was healthy enough to take live batting practice recently, I am extremely disappointed and deeply hurt, because I was building up nicely for the national team training camp in the middle of this month and the first round of the WBC.”

The WBC is important to players, but MLB teams have a right to protect their interests too, and that’s exactly what the Pirates are attempting to do here. For those of you out there who are hockey fans, imagine Sidney Crosby has a wrist injury he’s been nursing and the team is trying to manage it to get him through the season, but he wants to play for Canada in the Olympics. Now, Sid probably has a bit more sway in this decision, but the Pens wouldn’t just shrug either.

The big question this raised for me is, if we’re worried about his physical ability to participate in the WBC from the 8th to the 21st, should we expect participating fully in Spring Training is also in question?

Maybe, maybe not.

It could be as simple as not wanting another entity overseeing a player’s rehabilitation. For instance, when Oneil Cruz tweaked an ankle in Winter Ball, the Pirates were really quick to shut him down, get him back to Pittsburgh and work with him to ensure his health.

Cautious? Sure. But even if Choi loses his arb case he’s going to make at least 4.65 million. I guess what I’m saying is, I get it, and my hope is Choi does too.

I’m absolutely not trying to paint Choi as a bad guy, nor am I trying to say the Pirates are villains, I’m just saying these two sides haven’t exactly agreed on much since he was acquired. That means exactly what it sounds like, I have every expectation none of this will matter, and Choi is not a long term solution here so they only have to pretend if it comes to that for like what, 6 months?

3. Johan Oviedo Will be Given a Real Shot to Make the Rotation Out of Spring

I’ve put forward what I see as the opening day rotation of Keller, Contreras, Hill, Velasquez and Brubaker countless times now but recent conversations I’ve had lead me to believe Oviedo isn’t entirely out of the running.

For one thing, the Pirates really like him, and while inconsistent, they liked what he did when the team called him up in 2022.

Most of the reason for continuing to stick Velasquez in the rotation is the reported “promise he’d get a shot at starting” but I’m told that was really more of an assurance the team wouldn’t be closing the door to the possibility.

Small wording change, but significant.

The Pirates like Ortiz as well, but Oviedo is widely thought to be more MLB ready. Further, I’m told they’d like to see Carmen Mlodzinski or Nicolas get an opportunity to start in AAA sooner than later which would lead me to believe even if they run with a 6 man rotation in the system again as they did in 2022, one of the current projected starters needs to either go to the AAA bullpen and or make the MLB squad.

This all makes sense, but if Velasquez is indeed destined for the Pirates bullpen and or piggybacking, one would think that might spell trouble for Stephenson, DeJong or Underwood making the club.

They’ve only got so many spots for these types, and if Vince isn’t a starter, it’s going to have a chain reaction.

All of this of course supposes they all stay healthy, which isn’t a given, but if Oviedo makes the club it’s not because he was the second choice, it just means he took advantage of his opportunity.

I should also add here, the Pirates are adamant that they have identified some things they really think could help Vince, if that’s true, and hey who are we to question it, they were successful with Anderson and Quintana, that could obviously change the game.

Point is, the assumption of the starting 5 I’ve been running with, may not be as set as I’ve been portraying.

4. What Does DERP Mean?

For years and years I’ve been replying DERP to comments that make no sense, questions that don’t pertain to the subject, overt misquotes of what was stated inside the piece, and for most of that time people have asked me what it meant.

Some have guessed it was from South Park, and I won’t lie, that’s where it came from originally, but how it became my standard response is a bit different.

DERP for me became Didn’t Even Read Partially.

Here’s an example. Write a story about Ji-hwan Bae, and I mean all about Bae, nothing else. Comment is “The Pitching Staff is going to suck!!!”. OK. DERP.

It’s not about your comment being wrong (even if I believe it is) it just has nothing whatsoever to do with the subject.

Now, I don’t particularly care who reads and who doesn’t, but if you’re going to comment, well, let’s just say, most of you have no idea how easy it is to recognize when you haven’t read.

I have to admit, I started doing this when Craig and I were maybe pulling in 100 views and now that our numbers are much much higher than that, the joke has long since gotten old.

5. Steve Cohen and the Mets Aren’t a Problem

Every owner is entitled to run their team as they see fit, and Steve Cohen is 100% operating within the rules MLB’s collective bargaining agreement affords. He’ll pay a hell of a price for doing so too as his luxury tax figure will be staggering.

This is new for baseball. Not spending, that’s always happened but for one team to just entirely ignore the luxury tax threshold, well, let’s just say the other owners were taken off guard a bit.

Couple things here.

First, spending money alone doesn’t equal championships. It’s a truth that has always been part of sports, but in Cohen and the Mets case they’ve invested heavily in some very old top of the rotation pitchers.

They’re great pitchers, but man it’s got to at least be a little scary right?

Second, they still might not have a better roster than the Braves.

Now, rich people almost unanimously hate one thing, spending money and not getting what they want.

Cohen is the loudest new owner to join the league in quite some time, but he’s not the only one who came in believing he could just “do things right” and win it all quickly.

Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t.

If it doesn’t, I think you’d be foolish to expect he keeps going like this for half a decade. If it does, then maybe the jealousy or ire from other owners might matter for changing the system.

All that being said, I hold him no ill will. I’d kill to have some idealistic and altruistic fool buy the Pirates and just start tossing fliff around not even counting it. The game always levels this stuff out, and NOOBS tend to learn pretty quickly that all that development and draft crap they didn’t want to hear about when they got there, kinda matter after all.

Keep in mind, this isn’t the system I’d have ratified, but it wasn’t my choice either.

In college basketball right now Jim Boeheim just got himself into trouble by criticizing other teams for “buying” players. NIL deals have become sanctioned recruiting tools in today’s game and Jim himself used to quite literally buy players back before there was a legal mechanism to do so.

Point is, when something new, or someone new comes along and upturns the apple cart, the old guard tends to get bristly, and that’s all this is.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll loudly be chanting Muck the Fets with everyone else when they come to town, but not because their owner did anything wrong.