Pirates Top 5 Things I Want to See in 2023

2-5-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Listen, maybe it’s not plausible to expect a baseball team to improve by 20 games. I mean that’s what hoping for a .500 season is after all, and while I really like the additions, and am truly excited about what a full season of some of these guys can look like, but that’s a big jump.

If it’s going to happen, a lot of things are going to have to happen, today, I’m going to try to outline some of those things. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, or that it’s going to mean you should go lay money on some longshot dahn at Rivers.

That said, lets see what we come up with.

5. Defensive Improvement

There’s no way around this one and the league has made some changes that will at least make it a bit harder to scheme it into existence.

Bryan Reynolds isn’t the best CF in the league, but unless Travis Swaggerty makes this club, he’ll easily be the best on the team. Well, at least provably. Bae could wind up being an upgrade, but we’d have to see it to be sure. And let’s be really clear, if the Pirates are holding any hope whatsoever that extending Bryan is still possible, lets just say, he isn’t moving. All that being said, he’s hardly a problem out there.

Jack Suwinski is solid, and just about anywhere they play him at that.

The other spot is a bit more murky. If they use Cutch out there, it really needs to be in Right, and his arm isn’t what it used to be, so taking shots at doubles or even tagging on shallow flies it going to increase a bit, but left is probably a bit too cavernous at home anyway.

The infield, it’s really all about Castro and Cruz. Third and first should be fine. Let’s start with Castro, first of all, I really don’t think he’s a long term issue, I simply think he’s inexperienced. Something that should at least not be the case by the end of the season. His range is ok, his arm is fine, and when it’s a bang bang decision, he tends to make a good athletic decision. When he has too much time to think, he runs into issues. My belief is that repetition will help him here.

Cruz, well that’s another issue. He’s got range for days and a cannon for an arm. I won’t bother telling you what I know you’ve seen,

To really improve, Cruz needs to learn how to gear down that arm on routine plays, and to do that, he probably needs to believe he can make a throw without taking that crow hop or two he tends to default to. Hey, it’s easy for me to type what his problems are, but this has been an issue for the vast majority of his professional baseball career and he’s yet to really conquer it. Toward the end of 2022 I started seeing some signs he was adapting some of these things. That coupled with what I hope is a consistent double play partner and more experienced 1B options, well, I’m hoping he becomes an average fielder with a flair for the exceptional on occasion.

Catcher will be fine. Hedges is notoriously the top fielding catcher in the game today, but he may not be the feature back there the whole season either, at least I’m quite sure you hope not.

Mendy Lopez has been added to the MLB staff to focus on this aspect of the game, and unless I’m way off, he’s going to spend the vast majority standing near second base.

4. Cut Down the Strikeouts

The Pirates struck out 1,497 last year, and while everyone is pretty quick to name the serial offenders like Castro, Suwinski, or Cruz, nobody on the team struck out more than Bryan Reynolds (147).

That’s a good thing, because it’s something he can absolutely improve on and he’s already shown the capability.

Don’t get me wrong, The others didn’t play as much as Bryan so their ratios are still higher, but your best player leading your team in K’s isn’t ideal either.

Andy Haines method of instruction led to player taking more pitches in an effort to increase OBA via the walk, but for this to improve, they’re going to have to see him at least change his instruction. Even if he doesn’t, veterans aren’t going to just start accepting 2 strike count after 2 strike count, point being, I think we’ll see this reduced regardless.

3. Pressure the Opposition Defense

There are veterans all over this club now, but they also have speed with the kids. Bae, Hayes, Castro, Cruz, Suwinski, and really a plethora of other youngsters who could make the club can steal bases. I love the idea of forcing opponents into making mistakes and maybe even forcing the issue with some small ball concepts.

Sure the shift is going to be tramped down a bit, but there are other rule changes too. Bigger bases, limiting how many times a pitcher can toss over, add it all up and speed is going to become a thing again in this league, and for once, the Pirates are well positioned here. They have the youth to really take advantage here, you know, if they’re managed to do so.

2. Allow Players to Experience Some Consistency

It’s been a theme since Derek Shelton got here, he simply goes out of his way to change the lineup. I’d love to believe that was because the team was in damn near tryout stage the entire time he was around but until I see him let the lineup settle a bit, well, I’ll believe it when I see it.

We have seen him allow players who he deems “part of the solution” stick in a spot, and perhaps this year when so many more of them are in fact at least part of this year’s solution, he’ll allow it to lock in a bit more.

I cover baseball, have watched it a long time, even played it at a silly level that doesn’t matter a bit, but I’ve never seen a lineup that changes perpetually find success. At some point you simply must settle somewhere.

1. Manage the Staff Efficiently

Let me start with something unpopular. What happened to the pitching staff last year wasn’t Derek Shelton’s fault.

I wrote a piece before the season stared where I showed by simple math the Pirates had nowhere near enough arms to cover the number of innings typically required for an MLB baseball season. That came to fruition entirely.

On top of that, they got incredibly lucky it wasn’t worse as the starting rotation was freakishly healthy.

Not having enough available was squarely on Ben Cherington. You can question Shelton’s usage of the starters, but even that, you’d have to look above his head, because he was handed those inning restrictions to deal with.

This year is different, this time he has the horses. You can question how good they are, you can still believe he’ll make the wrong choices when he has them to make, you might even be right, lord knows he hasn’t proven anything, but when I do that same math this time, they’ve got easily 450-700 more available innings than they’ll need, and that’s accounting for injury, trades, even poor performance.

This time, it’s on Shelton and Marin to manage what they have, and make it work.

Conclusion

I won’t pretend I can dumb down what will turn this franchise around in 5 bullet points, I simply can’t and furthermore, better players is the only true way that happens. They’re working on that, you’re watching it, but these 5 things can help them utilize what they do have, and lay a foundation for what the on field culture of the Pittsburgh Pirates is moving forward.

Modern day baseball coaches aren’t what they used to be, so comparing Derek to Earl Weaver isn’t going to get you very far. The goal is still the same thing it always was, to win, to improve, to control what you can control, and more than any other thing, get the most out of what you do have.

This is a big year for everyone but nobody more than Shelton. I’m not saying he has to get to .500, but he has to show when the team gives him talent, he can turn it into wins.

With Pirates Prospects on the Doorstep, Agile Decisions are Key

2-4-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

There is reason for excitement in Pirates Nation.

For the first time in quite a while, the MLB squad looks professional and instead of cringing while projecting an opening day lineup, we’ll instead find ourselves cringing about who we have to bat 7th.

That’s true to be sure, but there’s also a host of kids on the doorstep with pedigree and much higher ceilings.

This is going to be difficult for fans to wrap their heads around.

Think back to even the last run in the 2010’s, there were what, 2 or 3 guys you might have been looking to for help? Taillon, Cole, maybe Alan Hansen?

This time, man pick a position and there’s someone you think might help.

I’ve talked about this before, but really think through this season. If the team is actually performing, they’re not going to be anxious to work in more rookies are they?

If all the Vets stink, I’m sure we’ll see a lot more prospects, but in that case, is that really what you wanted this year?

At least once a day I get a message like “Imagine the Rotation when Burrows, Priester, Ortiz all get there”. I get this sentiment, I even feel it myself a bit, but a whole lot has to go wrong with this rotation for that to happen honestly.

The hard part is watching Keller, Brubaker, Hill, Roansy and Velasquez, inevitably one or two are going to tumble in your mind but to expect 3-4 of them to stink, I’m not sure that’s realistic. The next step is to assume Vince and JT Brubaker really belong in the bullpen, well, ok, but Brubaker is one of the very few starters who’s given this team innings.

How do you anxiously look forward to these high end talents, yet avoid almost pulling for failure from the guys who start the season?

My recommendation, is to remember you’re rooting for the Pirates, not the Endy’s.

These things have a tendency to sort themselves out too. Injuries will happen, some guys will legitimately underperform, and best case scenario by far, some of these prospects will perform so well they force the team to feel they have to see them get an opportunity.

Another thing we have to keep in mind especially when we talk about the pitching, you need innings. I say this because if you were to just cut guys who have no options, you could wind up losing some of the depth you’ve built up, and we just saw last season how very important that can be to a pitching staff.

So, if the Bucs start the season with Duane Underwood Jr., even if he only gives you 40 innings before getting “injured” or even cut all together, that’s 40 innings you aren’t trying to squeeze out of a kid, or a Wil Crowe so he looks like he’s got nothing left by September.

All of these guys have a role, but you can’t force it, and you shouldn’t rush it.

Wanna know why guys like me were screaming to get Ji-hwan Bae up here much earlier last season? This is why. Last year they had little blocking the few prospects who were close, and they chose to artificially block them anyway.

In my mind, that was wasting valuable time to get a look at what they had with some of these guys.

Now that they’ve filled the holes with vets, the entire process is going to be more difficult. Better record? Oh I think so, but if we arrive at that better record and never got a chance to get some MLB time for some of these prospects, it’ll be hard to say they handled this right.

What we’re about to watch, is something the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t really dealt with since maybe 1986 or 1987. So if you’re my age or younger, chances are, this is foreign territory, and I think we’d do well to really think about it, if for no other reason than to avoid getting frustrated.

This team has to make smart, and unapologetic decisions. If Burrows is putting up numbers in AAA that can’t be ignored, they must find a way to get those innings transferred to MLB. And if that comes at the expense of someone like Brubaker, well, it has to come at someone’s expense right?

If nothing else, it’s going to be interesting. I think they have about 34 or 35 viable MLB capable players heading into Spring, now it becomes using them wisely, efficiently and not letting money play any role in their choices.

Easier said than done, probably for us as much as them.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Bubba Chandler

2-2-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

At this point I am sure everyone already knows the story about how the Pirates pried Bubba Chandler away from his commit to Clemson; where he was set to compete to be the starting quarterback, as a Four Star Recruit. And, all it took was a signing bonus of $3 Million-approximately $2.2 Million over-slot-with a promise to at least let him try to be a two-way player.

This is a tall order for almost everyone not named Shohei Ohtani, but even more so for a young man that is determined to develop on the mound, still wants to play the field and is a switch hitter. Does everyone understand how many reps, bullpens and batting cage sessions are involved in all of this?

It’s enough to exhaust even the most hardened workout junkie. Yet, it’s not like many of us are predicting that this will continue for much longer.

Across his first 162 professional plate appearances Chandler has slashed .189/.329/.364 with 5 homers and 11 total extra base hits, while striking out 35.4% of the time. On a positive note, he had posted a walk-rate of 15.5% , so there is at least some promise that he could adjust to batting three or four times a week between outings.

However, after watching a bunch of tape and thinking about the possibility of letting this experiment continue, the thing that makes the most sense to me is to have Chandler focus on batting from one side of the plate. The reason for this would be to cut down some of the time he is spending to get his bat to come around from the weaker side; which could be put toward developing the command and control that is missing from his three pitch mix.

In 41.1 innings across the FCL and Low-A Bradenton, Chandler posted a 2.61 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP with a 13.06 K/9 to 6.01 BB/9 rate. At first glance these numbers don’t look half bad; however, when you take out his time in the FCL you get a 4.15 ERA and a 1.462 WHIP with a 11.42 K/9 to 6.23 BB/9 rate.

Speaking candidly, the kid is raw; very talent, but still raw.

Still, it’s that raw talent on the mound that is getting the now 20 year-old noticed by experts outside the Pittsburgh Market.

Almost immediately following the release of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects, Chandler was identified as one of 10 prospects who could join the list at some point in 2023.

Then just a couple of days ago, he made Keith Law’s Top 100 for the Athletic.

In each publication’s analysis, Chandler’s athleticism was punctuated; along with the potential of his pitch mix, his current command/control struggles, and the need for him to focus on pitching in order to unlock his full capabilities.

What isn’t discussed, is where Chandler should start the season in 2023.

Well, if it was based purely on his arm and talent, I probably still say Bradenton; although the Pirates could be aggressive with him, in the same way they were bold by promoting Jared Jones this past season.

After posting a 4.64 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP, while striking out 103 batters and walking 34-good for a 14.05 K/9 to 4.64 BB/9 rate in 2021-Jones found himself in Greensboro at the beginning of 2022. Sure, his K and BB rates were slightly superior to Chandler’s, but it’s not like they were light-years better.

For now, I guess we will have to see how Chandler looks when he shows up for Spring Training in a couple weeks.

Pirates Questions – Answered

2-2-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I get questions all the time. Sometimes I answer them directly on social media, sometimes I make them topics on my show, others still make it into some of my FAQ pieces.

Today, I wanted to get some fresh ones and asked the Twitterverse to pitch in. Here’s what they came up with, and what I have to say about them.

Hope you like it, and please do follow all these fine Bucco fans on Twitter if you partake.

Not necessarily Pirates, but which affiliate are you most excited about in 2023?

Originally tweeted by Michael – 412 DoublePlay Podcast 🏴‍☠️ (@412DoublePlay) on February 1, 2023.

First, Michael has a fairly young podcast out there, give it a listen, tell him what you think.

OK, my gut reaction is to say Greensboro, because I think as the year plays out some of the more interesting players should either start there or end there. For instance, Bubba Chandler should start there, Anthony Solometo, Po-Yu Chen should too. Jase Bowen, Tsung-Che Cheng and Sammi Siani who I feel like has been in the system for 23 years at this point should too. At some point Jasiah Dixon, Thomas Harrington and JP Massey if they perform well could also make the roster. And we can’t forget, number one pick Termarr Johnson should also start out there I’d bet where he’ll take advantage of the short porch in right to pad his homerun numbers so Craig and I can tell you not to trust the power numbers for a year or so.

But…..

For the first time in what feels like a decade, Indianapolis will house a damn near roster full of guys who could very well make MLB this year. I love the idea of seeing years of hard work finally make it to one step away. There aren’t any cupcake openings on the MLB team this year either, so good chance their rotation looks like a prospect junkie’s wet dream. We could see a nice stretch of Cody Bolton, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Luis Ortiz, and Johan Oviedo. Folks, coupled with all the offensive talent they’ve piled on the doorstep like Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodriguez, Mason Martin, Malcom Nunez, all the guys who don’t make the big club in the infield and outfield, probably Henry Davis before too long, man that’s a potentially championship squad.

Final answer: The AAA Indianapolis Indians

Predictions for Hayes and Keller this year?

Originally tweeted by NYBucsfan (@BucsfanNY) on February 1, 2023.

and

If Keller has a great first half what might the timeline and numbers be on an extension?

Originally tweeted by Count bleck (@iCountBleck) on February 1, 2023.

I’m ganging these two together, just feels like they overlap a bit.

First thing I’ll tackle is Hayes. Let’s start with this, I’ve asked people who should know, and confirmed it with some beat writer friends, and right now, Ke’Bryan feels completely healthy. For the best part of two straight years now he’s been almost unable to pull the baseball and it’s turned him into an easier to face hitter than he should be.

The hard hit rate has remained more than acceptable, but according to those same folks who say he’s healthy, his physical issues caused him to simply not be able to turn over on the baseball, robbing him of pull side power and in general getting in his head. I do think Hayes will have a better season offensively, but let’s be really clear on Ke’, he was never an offensive juggernaut save his callup in 2020. That was the outlier.

He did start showing last season a willingness to use his speed on the base paths a bit more last year, so if he gets going with the bat, and isn’t so dead locked in on swinging at everything away, I think he’ll more than earn his keep in the lineup. Coupled with his defense, let’s just say he’s the least of my worries, but if he’s really good, this is a really good offense, if he isn’t, it’s average at best. He really is a key.

Now, onto Keller. I expect big things from Mitch this year.

Should he fully realize that emergence he started to show last season in 2023 the Pirates will have to make retaining him a priority. Even as they have plenty of arms coming, we all know how highly touted Mitch himself was, and here we are in year 4 with fingers crossed he replicates his second half from 2022. When you develop them, you better keep some of them at least.

He’ll have 2 years of arbitration, and this year he’s making about 2.4 Million. If he’s really good, like an ERA around 4, maybe a touch under with a decent WHIP like 1.125 or so, he’s going to get a significant raise. Probably as high as 5 or 6. If I’m the Pirates and want to get this done, I go in with 5 years, which buys two years of arbitration that could be worth about 16 million, and offer 55 or 60. It gives him more money in year 1 and 2 than he’d likely have made, and a decent wage in years 3-4. It also keeps him movable just in case he does get passed by the prospects at some point. This would keep him through 2028, and I honestly feel that’s about right.

Do you think Roansy has what it takes to become the ace of the staff or do you think he settles as a 3 or 2?

Originally tweeted by Canyon 🏴‍☠️ (@SwartzCanyon) on February 1, 2023.

If you know me, I don’t use Number 1, Number 5, really any of that. I tend to use Top and bottom of the rotation. Reason for that, first I don’t think it’s fair to the players really. Like what is Justin Verlander on the Mets? Is he a 1 or is he a 2 because he’s with Max Scherzer? Or are you one of those folks who likes to go with “they’ve got two 1’s”. I just don’t like it. I think Roansy has everything in him to be a top end of the rotation pitcher.

I’d also add here while I’m on the pulpit, if you have 5 “3’s”, you probably have a top ten rotation in this league and with no more one game play in wild cards, it’s not the imperative it used to be. Of course you’d take that clear cut top guy, but you can do quite well with a stable of really good too.

In order to achieve that this year, he’ll have to incorporate his curveball and changeup a bit more in my mind to maximize the deceptiveness of the slider and keep guys from sitting on the heater. Now to really be a top end of the rotation guy, he’d have to handle a higher volume of innings this year. I think the team will hold him around 150ish, so maybe he doesn’t make it to whatever you consider top of the rotation this year, but he sure could look the part. Last season he went through pitch tipping, and conquered it relatively quickly, that speaks well to his ability to push back and I thing he’ll be doing that a lot in 2023. Scouts are really good at what they do and much like Francisco Liriano back in the day, at some point the book on him will be wait him out instead of chasing. So key for me with Ro is to learn to come a little closer to the zone with the slider a bit more often. Don’t have to live on the black, but you do have to make guys feel like it’s dangerous to take.

What’s the optimal spot in the lineup for Cruz this season? I thought one thing before the offseason and probably feel differently now.

Originally tweeted by Nick Cammuso (@npc210) on February 1, 2023.

Most of you know, last year I was a very early advocate for batting him leadoff. And I mean before they started actually doing it which made some people think I might know a thing or two, lol.

I wanted him there because they pissed around with him for so long I felt he needed to get as many at bats as possible, for mathematical reasons only, that’s leadoff.

Now, this dude could hit 30 homeruns without improving. That certainly doesn’t disqualify him from leading off, but man, you’d like to see him hit some of those with guys on base.

Who knows what captain lineup change is going to do this year. I’d like to believe he won’t have 150+ different lineups this year, but I of course can’t guarantee that. I will say, when he feels a guy is now a fixture he tends to like to leave them be.

The only natural leadoff hitter they have is Ji-hwan Bae and look, we don’t even know if he’ll make the team, let alone play every day. Ideally though, I’d like to see Reynolds batting second and Cruz third.

I think that gives him RBI opportunity, still ensures a first inning AB for some instant offense, and provides Bryan Reynolds some much needed protection in the lineup. Follow him up with Santana and he’ll see pitches often enough, plus bookended by switch hitters with power, he might get less late inning lefties to face.

Another reason to move him down a bit, as much as the Pirates have done to improve the roster, Hedges is going to have to bat somewhere. Explicitly for this reason I’d probably bat him 8th just so you have a shot at the 9 hole starting the ball rolling before you get to the top again, but either way, until Endy is up, I think I’d just as soon keep Cruz at 3.

Pirates Offseason Extravaganza

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-zrrtv-137ac47

In this week’s SUPERSIZED episode Craig is joined by Rob Biertempfel-Pirates Beat Reporter for the Athletic-to talk about a myriad of topics to get fans ready for the start of Spring Training; including Reynolds, Derek Shelton’s Future with the team, Rodolfo Castro’s Role and Much More! 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Good With The Glove

1-31-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

When you are a rebuilding team, that currently lacks consistent power, and is filled with a decent amount of young or inexperienced pitchers, one major aspect of the game of baseball that can help your team immensely is being able to excel at the fundamentals; especially on defense.

Over the past two seasons the Pirates have ranked in the bottom five of all teams in Major League Baseball. In 2021 Pittsburgh had a -26.2 Fangraphs Defensive WAR; good for 27th place in MLB. Last season, in 2022, the Pirates landed in the same overall spot-27th, with a slightly better defensive WAR; coming in at -22.5.

Yet, some people-including several local media personalities- believe 2021 was a great defensive year based on them being second in the least amount of errors and number three in fielding percentage.

Obviously, being able to field the balls that are hit to you is positive thing; but, when you rank at or near the bottom in almost all advanced metrics-including Defensive Runs Saved (-9), Ultimate Zone Rating (-7.2) and Outs Above Average (-11)-in 2021, it’s hard to argue that the defense was actually that good.

To me this equates to continuing the use of batting average in the assessment of a hitter’s ability and value to their team; instead of using the more effective metrics of OPS+, wRC+ and/or wOBA to judge a player.

Now, in the spirit of fairness, I would be remised if I didn’t report the Pirates defensive advanced metrics for 2022. As far as DRS, UZR and OAA are concerned the Pirates posted a 2, a -19.8 and a -21 respectively.

Don’t get me wrong, neither of these seasons were good by any stretch of the imagination; which I’m not even sure has anything to do with how I assess the Pirates needs when they take the field.

It’s more of an overarching theme that it’s going to be tough to see how the Pirates can improve overall; especially if the are giving teams extra outs, and/or runs in the process.

When the Pirates were last successful from 2013 through 2015, they accumulated 88 Defensive Runs Saved; a total that was good for third place in all of Major League Baseball.

Sure this isn’t the only thing that got them over the hump, and back to relevancy; but, it sure didn’t hurt, or even made it a little bit easier.

And, that brings us to the 5-ish players in the Pirates System who could make it a little bit easier to shore up the defense.

1) Jared Triolo

A Minor League Gold Glove at 3rd Base in 2021, two Bill Mazeroski Defender of The Year Awards in a row and a surprise selection to the Pirates 40-Man Roster ahead of December’s Rule 5 Draft is a pretty solid start to a professional career for the young man from the University Of Houston.

Seen as a glove first third baseman, Triolo has shown great range to go with a strong arm; although he struggled slightly with the move to shortstop. In 155 innings up the middle for Altoona, he had almost as many errors (5), as he did in 746.2 innings at third for the Curve (7). Naturally his fielding percentage also dropped from .970 to .929.

Given the opportunity to get in more work at shortstop, I have no doubt he would be able to succeed; still, I can see why some people could, based solely on the numbers.

2) Tsung-Che Cheng

A shortstop by trade, Cheng has branched out to play second, and even third base at times. Possessing what is seen as an average future value in the field, with plus speed, it is also possible he goes the way of Tucupita Marcano and Ji-hwan Bae, and gets to play some outfield in the future.

Seen as a player that can field a fine shortstop by scouts in the industry due to his range and footwork, but slightly lacking arm, the Taiwanese International Signee-inked for $380,000 back in 2019-has also gotten in some Winter League League these past two off seasons; helping Columbia win their first ever Caribbean Series Title in February of this past year.

For right now it seems that Cheng will be in direct competition with Maikol Escotto for reps at both middle infield positions with the Greensboro Grasshoppers this upcoming season; although the later has continued to struggle since being acquired from the New York Yankees, as part of the Jameson Taillon Return.

3) Jacob Gonzalez

I get it, he’s almost 25 years-old. And, that he ended up repeating a level after being acquired by the Pirates in the Minor League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft; which is pretty much used as Farm System Filler.

Nevertheless, Gonzalez-son of former Major Leaguer, 5 Time All-Star and World Series Champion Luis Gonzalez-is a solid hitter, strong fielder, and a really good teammate; hence the Manny Sanguillen Teammate of The Year Award. Plus he may be the most likely starter at First Base to begin the Altoona Curves Season, after being selected to participate in the Arizona Fall League following the season.

So, how is his fielding exactly? Well, he’s been working on the transition from third to first since 2019, and catches almost anything that comes his way; committing only 6 errors in 771.2 innings, while posting a .991 Fielding Percentage, and a career 7.73 RF/G (Range Factor Per Game); which isn’t elite, but would obviously be better than anything the Pirates have produced over the past couple of years.

4) Travis Swaggerty

Widely thought to be the best defensive outfielder in the upper Minors for Pittsburgh, and possibly the best fielder on the grass if he stepped into PNC Park tomorrow, Swaggerty was given the aggressive promotion to Triple-A in 2021; following the 2020 cancelled season. Unfortunately, Swaggerty would dislocate his shoulder diving back into first base in Indianapolis; officially ending his season when he underwent laboral surgery in June of that year.

Back at full health in 2022, the South Alabama Product-and former First Round Pick-played 816.2 innings across all three outfield positions ; committing only 3 errors and participating 7 outfield assists, all while posting a .983 Fielding Percentage.

Still on the 40-Man, one would think Swaggerty would still get a shot at the Major League Roster in 2023; preferably for more than 5 games and 9 at bats.

5) Rodolfo Nolasco/Tres Gonzalez

Set to be everyday right fielder for the Bradenton Marauders, Nolasco dealt with injuries that shortened his season to 77 games, 280 at bats and 530.1 innings in the outfield.

On the season, the Pirates #19 Prospect on Fangraphs had a total of 5 errors, 4 assists and 2 double plays, with a .986 Fielding Percentage at 20 only years old.

Obviously many fans don’t know who this kid is, yet at 20-with him participating in only his third actual season in professional ball, and second in the states, Nolasco’s speed and defense is very well known.

As far as Tres Gonzalez is concerned, there is this immediate blast of player who came from college, almost straight to Low-A. Not even recognized on any top prospect prospect list, Gonzalez was discussed in my Best Of The Rest from the 2022 MLB Draft; mostly because of his flexibility and hustle, because their isn’t much power to go along with his contact, and overall plate presence; but his defense would be an asset.

Conclusion

I am a firm believer in the old baseball adage…if the bat plays.

Or more succinctly put, if the player can hit, people don’t really pay attention to how bad his defense is.

Sure, some will notice, or point to a slugger’s defensive metrics when they benefit the argument of which one is the better overall player; however, it’s not like Pirates Fans had a problem with Josh Bell’s defense at first when he was putting up one of the best stretches at the plate in Pittsburgh history. From Opening Day to the All-Star Break, Bell was one of the best hitters in MLB, setting records as a Pirates batter, slashing .302/.376/.648 with 27 homers at the All-Star Break in 2019.

For reference does anyone know what Bell’s DRS and OAA was at this time?

Of course I know almost no-one does. It was -20 DRS at first base from 2017-19, with -12 OAA average; which is probably why the best season Bell had based on WAR in Pittsburgh was 2.8 bWAR vs. 2.9 fWAR in 2019-or a regular starter but quite not an All-Star.

On the other hand, Hayes slashed only .244/.314/ .349, but put up 4.3 WAR or 3.0 fWAR-strictly based on defense; or simply put, over the top defense with no offense, could potentially result in a similar WAR to stellar offense with no defense. And, since the Pirates haven’t shown the ability to do the later-just yet-here I am looking at the defensive stats of Pittsburgh’s prospects.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

1-30-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

We’re down to a little over 2 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to camp and the next season officially starts. In fact, they report on my birthday 2-14, so happy birthday to me. All the talk, all the player moves, all the panic about potential player moves, everything will transition to on the field questions.

We’ll now start talking about local baseball in a different way. When someone young goes 0-16 with 9 strikeouts and people scream to demote them, we’ll no longer be able to say “For Who?” because in most cases, there’ll be 2 or 3 answers.

I’m not sitting here telling you every answer is already internally available, but I am saying there shouldn’t be any more situations where the team is literally stuck knowing they have nowhere to turn to at least try.

We’ll talk a lot more baseball this year. And maybe back off on the intricacies of a rebuild a bit. Doesn’t mean in any way the job is over, just means baseball, on the field, is going to be interesting enough to evaluate with much more frequency.

Let’s dig in, lots to talk about this week!

1. Fan Interaction

The Pirates offered Season Ticket holders on an invite basis an opportunity to meet with some players and participate in a Q&A with some upper brass at the Winter Warmup Event.

By all accounts the event was nice, the Q&A was a bit boring, and it was a bit hard for attendees to make it from station to station in order to take everything in.

That’s how these things go, and every one of these Q&A sessions I’ve been to tends to be 10 minutes of people murmuring about all these super tough questions they’ll be asking these guys, only to see them get the mic and either water it down or entirely change the agenda. It’s actually a lot like Ralphie in “A Christmas Story” and they stammer out f-f-f-ooootball.

Then there’s always one dude who follows through. It’s almost always a lot more anger than substance. In fact most of the time, there isn’t an actual question and everyone on the stage just moves on, after all, you never asked them a damn thing.

It’s cringy most of the time.

Sounds like this wasn’t much different. Most people were just happy to see Cutch and Walker. Blass and Keller.

I saw some people pretty upset about this event (it’s not the first they’ve done this year btw) because it was only for season ticket holders.

Look, I wanted them to do a Pirates Fest too, but they’ve explained why they couldn’t (or felt they couldn’t) host something like that at the very under construction PNC Park. They could have potentially done something at the convention center I suppose, but whatever, I get it.

I still think it was an unforced error. I still think that fans deserve a chance to ask questions after the baseball they’ve been given to watch, even if most aren’t truly equipped to ask effective ones.

I’m not saying everyone is dumb or that someone like me would do it better. I’m just saying there is an art to asking a question that prompts a fruitful answer. Most people just jump to a gotcha, and most of those that do get through are super easy to wiggle around for a seasoned wiggler. Do you regret trading Clay Holmes for two guys you DFA’d? We wish Clay well, and we knew we were giving up a good player, but we really liked the opportunity to work with the guys we got back too. Certainly that’s not the outcome we’re looking for.

Now you knew they’d answer like that, but you fancy yourself following it up with something even stronger. By then, they’ve either taken the mic or the cordial way it was answered lowers your bristle and you surrender the mic with a meek thank you.

Next year, I’m quite sure the Pirates will return to hosting a full scale event. Probably not coincidentally the Pirates will also likely have a roster that garners less angst.

I don’t begrudge season ticket holders getting something special, they’ve chosen to spend their dollars on a team that rarely puts them to the use they’d like to see. I don’t begrudge non season ticket holders feeling left out either, it’s something that was always there and now it’s not, that rarely goes unnoticed.

What exactly is Travis Williams’ job if not to show up to events like this and field questions? That’s my biggest question, and no, I don’t think I’d have wasted my breath asking Derek Shelton, Ben Cherington and Don Kelley that one.

2. Cutch Isn’t a Savior

Nobody knows this better than Andrew himself. He’s here because he wanted to come home, and he thinks the team has a chance to really improve.

Say what you will about McCutchen, but one thing he’s never been is a liar. If he thought he had nothing to give, he’s got too much respect for his legacy and this city to collect a paycheck.

He’s not the savior, but he may very well be the flag bearer for this club. A bridge to the past and glue for present day. Alex Stumpf over at DKPittsburghSports has a really nice piece after a sit down with Cutch on the 28th that I encourage you to check out.

I especially loved this quote when asked what winning here would mean to him. “It would mean the world, not with [just] me, but it would mean the world to the fan base as well,” McCutchen said about what it would mean to win here. “The fans here, they don’t want to see another 20 years of losing… They don’t want that to happen. I don’t want that to happen either. I do feel within that clubhouse, there’s a good group of guys out there and in that clubhouse. Great talents. It’s just a matter of belief of that and going out there on the field and doing it.”

Folks, this stuff doesn’t happen every day. This man LOVES you. This man GETS you. And he gets that the guys in the clubhouse will have more to do with that success than his own performance alone.

I don’t know what he’ll produce in 2023, nobody possibly could, but I know we’ll get everything he’s got, every day, every game, every time he’s mobbed in the post game availability, every time this team needs reminded a losing streak isn’t to be endured, it’s to be fought through.

If this team is successful, chances are Andrew McCutchen isn’t the primary reason. He knows that, you should know that too, but that doesn’t mean he won’t act like every bit the MVP he’s been.

Hey, what do you expect? He’s a Pittsburgher after all.

3. The Winds of Change

Three years ago, the Pirates had little more than Jared Oliva and Travis Swaggerty when you looked downhill to the minors. In fact for most of the time Ben Cherington has been here, Bryan Reynolds has been the only true outfield solution they’ve had.

Ben Gamel was serviceable, certainly helped as much as any waiver claim could be expected to.

The problem was identified quickly, and Ben Cherington set forth to bring in prospects to augment the few prospects that were already here. Now as we sit here on the cusp of 2023, it looks like they prepaid $80 to fill a 10 gallon tank.

The Pirates have a glut of outfielders.

They have 8 dedicated outfielders on the 40-man. 12 if you want to get technical about who could play out there. Jump down to include AA and AAA and the number jumps to something like 22 who have some kind of plausibility of making the league within the year or next.

Let’s start here. You aren’t going to see a team go through 22 players for 3 spots in 2 years and have everyone feel they’ve gotten a fair shake. The at bats just aren’t there.

The Pirates are going to already have to play some games with finding playing time in AA and AAA. I see no way around the fact that the team is going to have to make some decisions quickly to thin the herd.

This is a throw things against the wall and see what sticks approach. All teams do it, but the Pirates didn’t just add lottery tickets, they added guys who ultimately would need protected from the Rule 5 draft. In the process of these “close to the league” additions being developed, internal options and younger acquisitions that were very far away, to a degree caught up.

Last season they protected Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski, and Travis Swaggerty. Then chose to promote and add Cal Mitchell.

So when you add 4 you’d like to think in a season where you weren’t winning, you’d at least get some answers knowing you have another pile coming up in the next year. Instead, we learned that Jack Suwinski can play good defense, and hit right handed pitching for power. We also learned that Cal Mitchell’s arm is an issue and at times he looks to have an interesting bat.

That’s the list.

CSN was hurt, so entirely not their fault, and Swaggerty entered 2022 not 100%, and earned nothing more than a series worth of call up.

Point of all this, a whole bunch of these guys could wind up being MLB players. Keep in mind, even becoming a bench player isn’t a given for prospects, of all the fan bases in the league you all should know that very well. Well, they have a bunch of guys with that kind of capability, and they’re going to have to get a bit more choosy.

They may have to decide Mitchell’s arm (and yes I’m picking on him here) isn’t good enough to be an everyday outfielder. So that would lead them to needing the bat to be special. So far, it isn’t, but if it were to take a jump and start producing, you might find them try really hard to find him a new place to live in the field, like first base for instance.

If it turns out he’s just bench worthy at best, that might have easily given him a job here for half a decade not too long ago. With the pressure they’ve packed into this position now, it won’t provide him any comfort.

When you’re asking yourself why that guy you like got DFA’d without really getting a chance, the answer will undoubtedly lie in this realm.

4. And That’s Just Part of the Outfield Story

The Bucs have some big questions to answer elsewhere too, and when they answer them, the outfield again could be affected. Lets say Oneil Cruz and Rodolfo Castro both hit the baseball and stick at SS and 2B. Push aside how likely you feel that to be for a moment because it hardly matters for this exercise. What do you do with Nick Gonzales? Liover Peguero? I mean I’d add in Termarr Johnson in here too but I think we safely have a couple seasons for that.

Conversely, lets say they both hit, but don’t handle the positions. Well, you still want the bats, so they have to find a home right? Think they might try outfield? Everyone can’t be a DH.

When you start to really think about how teams like this are formed, you start seeing things at their simplest form.

There are categories for prospects.

Bats, Arms, and Catchers. Bats are just that, and some will show you things they can’t do, others will show you somewhere they excel.

Arms are arms, some could start, others for sure can’t. Catchers are outliers, but even they sometimes have to find somewhere else to play.

Henry Davis is one of these. He could wind up being a full time catcher, he could wind up being swapped elsewhere because Endy has it on lockdown. Hell the team could decide Endy’s athleticism is too valuable to have him spend 9 innings a game crouching.

Point is, if both bats prove productive, they’ll find a home for them.

Don’t get too hung up on who plays where when they’re prospects with a couple exceptions. 1. They’ve proven they can only play only one place. 2. The defense is so exceptional you’d be doing a disservice by not using the player at a given position.

Remember the journey of Neil Walker. Drafted as a catcher, moved to 3B because he was blocked by Ryan Doumit (true, I swear), moved to 2B because he was blocked by Pedro Alvarez. Stuck because he showed a valuable switch hitting bat with some pop, and learned to be a decent to above average 2B here in Pittsburgh.

The more spots the MLB team locks in, the harder this gets. Ke’Bryan Hayes is an awesome 3B, period. Statistically he’s the best defender in the league. So anyone who comes up through the system thinking they’re going to be the Pirates 3B of the future, has a long wait. Reality dictates, if the bat plays they’d just have to find somewhere else to stick him.

Messy, sure. But like the band 311 once wrote it can all wind up being a beautiful disaster.

5. Prediction Time?

Well, I’m not ready for a record prediction yet. I’ll get there before Spring is out but I still think there are some things we can predict right now.

  • By the end of the season we’ll either know Mason Martin or Malcom Nunez will get a crack at first base, or we’ll head into the offseason thinking Connor Joe might be the veteran option over there. For that reason I think we’ll see him get an odd start or two over there this season.
  • The Pirates still don’t have a lefty starter anywhere near the landing strip. I can already say next off season procuring a lefty starter will be a priority.
  • If it looks like Andrew McCutchen is still productive, and knowing the interest is already there, I could see the Pirates knocking out a one year extension with Cutch during 2023.
  • If Mitch Keller has a productive season, say an ERA under 4.25 with a WHIP of 1.125 and at least 175 innings, he’ll become their number one priority this offseason to get an extension done with.
  • Andy Haines will be the hitting coach for the vast majority of 2023, but I think we’ll see the team move on if they finish below 16th in the league offensively. Especially if the offense is largely driven by veterans.
  • The Pirates will use options to keep the bullpen fresh in 2023, and at some point that could mean guys like Colin Holderman going down for someone like Yerry De Los Santos. Fresh arms will be a theme all year, and bluntly, the Pirates are better positioned here than 90% of the teams in the league.
  • Derek Shelton will sign a quiet extension sometime around the All Star Break.
  • JT Brubaker won’t relinquish his rotation spot easily and by the end of the season most of us will feel the Pirates have room to actually trade a guy like him.

A Better Team, but They Still Have Work to Do

1-28-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

If you live in Pittsburgh, or used to at least, chances are you’ve made the pilgrimage to one or our beautiful East Coast beaches. If you have, well you know that moment where you get out of the car to grab a sandwich or fill up the tank and you suddenly realize, hey, I can smell the ocean!

It smells so clear to you, and it instantly makes you feel like you’re right there, even if your stubborn GPS continues to tell you it’s still 100 miles away.

I kinda feel like that’s where we are with this team as we get ready to start 2023.

All the signs that this team is ready to show some improvement, and win games with much more regularity are there. The players feel it, the coaches feel it, even many fans feel it, but at some point while watching it play out, I can’t help but feel that GPS is going to remind us there’s still some travel to do.

Most of the questions or comments I get recently lead me to this topic. I put them all in the category of “I want to believe, help me be sure I’m not being dumb”.

First, I try really hard to not make convincing people part of my job. I just like to give you all the things I’m looking at, and the angles surrounding them so that you form your own opinion. I’ll give you mine, but I entirely understand if you come to a different conclusion. That’s healthy and I hope is the goal for anyone covering a team.

Answering these types of things, man it makes me feel like Fox Mulder from the X-files series. I can help you feel better about your belief, but I’ll never be able to do it without open questions.

In other words, Mulder wanted to believe in whatever theory he was presented with, and he’d often only strengthen that belief during his investigation, rarely were his findings conclusive.

So for me, I want to believe this team is better, I might even want to believe it’s a .500 club, but I’m afraid the best I can do is feel better about it.

There’s another reason I feel this is necessary. As the Pirates have garnered some positive news (thanks Cutch) there have been more eyes out there. Just trust me, the numbers are up on all metrics for podcasts, articles, across the board and on everything Craig or I do we see it. That’s going to require covering some old ground a bit more. Things that we’ve covered and established as we traveled the road here together, well, we can’t expect fans just opening their Pirate eyes to go back and read a history they happily ignored can we?

Let’s dig into some topics that illustrate this well.

What is the Team’s Biggest Weakness?

Oh man. Is catcher too easy?

I understood Austin Hedges being the free agent acquisition, defensively he’s very very good, but he simply isn’t a hitter. This position really calls back to my original analogy, I can smell the ocean air here at this position, but I still think we have some traveling to do before we actually can dip our toes in the sand.

Everyone and their mother knows Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are right there on the doorstep. Endy first, Davis at some point later in the year. That said, solid chance we start 2023 with Hedges and Heineman.

Now, in the Pirates view, at least based on their quotes on the subject, having a top notch defensive catcher is a huge key to helping to develop their pitching staff, and the young catchers they’ll eventually call into action.

That sounds great, but last year when said top notch defender was injured, they did nothing to replace him, and because of that, I can’t help but question just how important it really is. They willingly went 6+ months without something they went into the season claiming was “key”.

There were real live defensive oriented catchers they could have traded for, and bluntly, they could have moved some of the plethora of players they DFAd for next to nothing this year like Hoy Park, Diego Castillo, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson, take you pick. Defensive catchers don’t require what a catcher with big time offensive upside costs.

Either way, and even if much of that is 2022 sour grapes, catcher stands to be close to a free out in the lineup. So to me, that’s the clear weakness, even if it’s worth positive WAR defensively.

The Bullpen Scares Me Gary, it Was So Bad in 2022

I personally feel this fear has a couple important things that need pulled to the forefront before we talk actual players. First, many of the returning arms had very nice seasons or stretches here in Pittsburgh last year, but the fresh memory for most is the last month plus after injuries set in and roles got jumbled and tossed at dead armed remnants.

Second, the Pirates went into 2022 short on pitchers on the 40-man, and it screwed them all year long. It was blatant mismanagement. No grey area there really, no GM should enter a season that tight on arms that could feasibly carry a stretch of innings at the MLB level.

To the Pirate’s credit, and where this 2023 story really pivots, they aren’t poised to repeat their mistake.

Colin Selby, Yohan Ramirez, Dauri Moreta, Colin Holderman, David Bednar, Robert Stephenson, Duane Underwood Jr., Jarlin Garcia, Chase De Jong, Yerry De Los Santos, Jose Hernandez, Wil Crowe are all sure fire bullpen options for this club. All on the 40-man.

Meaning any of them could realistically make the opening day roster.

The team also can realistically say at some point this year it’s likely Vince Velasquez, maybe even JT Brubaker could make their way into this mix. In the minors they could say realistically that Johan Oviedo, Cody Bolton, or even Luis Ortiz could help out in this area should you really run into trouble.

This team is deep in the Pen.

You can hate Underwood Jr., after all you’ve watched him pitch for 2 straight years. Devil’s advocate here, his underlying stats point to him being extremely unlucky and he wasn’t used in a good role. More than that, if he’s really bad, they have a TON of options.

If I have a main worry, it’s left handed pitching. Jarlin Garcia is a really nice veteran lefty, and I feel good about him, but the only other lefty they have in the mix is Jose Hernandez the rule five selection. This might lead them to allow an NRI to win a job or at least be there in AAA as depth. Either way, I don’t believe they have enough from this side of the mound.

Even so, the bullpen isn’t what you watched at the end of the season. I feel stronger about the pen than any other aspect of this team.

Endy Rodriguez Should Make the Team! Play Your Best Players!

There’s truth to this.

What Derek Shelton did by plainly stating at the Winter Meetings that Endy Rodriguez will start the season in AAA was slam the door on this decision being developmental.

Here’s the thing about every fan’s relationship with every team’s front office. We all know they’re manipulating some players service time, and we all know that some players aren’t ready too. We just want to believe guys have a chance to show the team they’re ready and can earn the call up. In other words, just keep the door cracked, and maybe we’ll “buy” the dude needs to learn how to call a game.

Taking that off the table, knowing he could hit .375 in Spring with 8 home runs and still be shipped to AAA, well, it’s going to scream manipulation. Had you not said anything, at least you could claim some obscure defensive aspect you need to have him fine tune. We’d still hate it, and people would still scream, and people would rightly point out it could be learned at MLB.

OK, rant over.

That all being said, the dude has 6 games at AAA under his belt, it’s very likely he will need more than 24 PA. In those AAA games he caught 3, played 2B 1 time and was the DH twice. I mean, maybe he really does need a bit of work too ya know?

I think many of us would be able to see this inexperience and be ok, and that’s why it’s dumb to declare the outcome 3 months before its happened.

The Team Looks Better, but This Coach Sucks

Ahh, one of my very favorites.

Maybe it’s true. Maybe what this team added hardly mattered because Derek Shelton and his staff will render it impotent.

First, there are things that have happened since Shelton being hired that fans tend to blame him for, but couldn’t possibly be farther off on.

For instance, playing guys who obviously (to you) stink. The way Ben Cherington approached this rebuild and indeed his rosters, when he wanted to get a look at someone, he’d outline what that look would entail. So if he wanted to make sure Josh VanMeter got 175-200 at bats, well, guess what Derek Shelton is tasked with finding a way to do.

If he’s told to make sure Yoshi Tsutsugo gets 200 at bats, again, guess what he’ll have to find a way to do.

There should be less of this in 2023. There aren’t a lot of spots where you could do it for one, and he’ll have fewer overtly poor choices on his bench.

Same goes for the bullpen, there were few good choices to be made last year, this year he should be able to ask for a AAA swap when he sees it as needed.

I understand there are things you expect to see from a baseball coach, I do too, and to be clear, I haven’t seen what I’d like to see either. But 2023 is the first year this coach really has enough to truly evaluate his performance.

If you don’t like the way he handles starting pitchers, I agree, but this isn’t his philosophy being applied, this is from above his head. Analytics say starters who face a lineup the 3rd time through don’t do as well. Baseball teams all over the country are adjusting this and applying it. If Derek Shelton were fired tomorrow, the new skipper would come in and likely do the same thing. In fact if they hired Dusty Baker or Earl Weaver, they’d either quit on the spot or they too would apply the philosophy.

It’s for this reason, I worry much more about the Pitching and hitting coaches. Oscar Marin did pretty well with some important projects last season. Specifically Jose Quintana and Mitch Keller.

He’s gained a reputation to a degree, and as I said some time ago, his job was tied to Keller at least to begin with. Next he needs to turn one of the youngsters into a piece.

Haines needs to help Jack, Oneil, Hayes, Castro to be better versions of what they are, and stay out of the veteran’s way. He’s got the hardest job in the room if you ask me, because they’ve brought in enough veteran presence that kids will have multiple people to talk to and bounce things off of. If he’s preaching poor lessons it’ll be out in the open much faster than last season.

I’d say, keep an open mind here. But it’s fair to judge starting now.

Roansy Contreras – Ready to Climb

1-27-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It amazes me. Every single time it happens with this fan base.

Comfort.

Roansy Contreras has been one of the rarest of rare prospects here in Pittsburgh. He was traded to the Pirates as part of a package that sent Jameson Taillon to New York in exchange for Maikol Escotto, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Miguel Yajure, and of course Roansy himself a little over 2 years ago.

At the time of the deal it was believed that Miguel Yajure was key, but he’s since been DFAd and long since was passed by Contreras for the mantle of headliner.

Fans have simply accepted that Roansy is not only good, but great by in large. There’s almost an easy comfort that he’ll figure out how to fix any issues he’s cropped up with.

To his credit, he’s done just that. Toward the end of 2022 Contreras was discovered to have been tipping pitches. It had been going on for a little while but hadn’t really burnt him, until it did.

A dedicated bullpen session later, he was back to himself.

That’s all great, and as I said, to his credit, but I still think many Bucco supporters have declared him a success story before the story is fully written.

This is a very important year for Contreras and today, I’m going to outline that case.

Roansy is 23 years old from Peralvillo, Dominican Republic and thus far in his budding Major League career he’s thrown all of 98 innings.

The Pirates handled him like a Fabergé egg in 2021, and with good reason.

This is a kid who didn’t pitch in 2020, like so so many prospects, and before that had never pitched more than 132.1 innings in a single season (2019). Add in that he had a very scary forearm tightness situation in 2021 that shelved him for an extended period and caused him to only rack up 58 innings between AA and AAA.

He’d still earn a cup of, er, sip of coffee in 2021, tossing 3 innings of shutout ball and setting the stage for coming to Spring in 2022 with some excitement.

After the forearm scare, Roansy tweaked some of his training and maintenance techniques, but the process of building an arm back up, especially a potentially golden arm is not simple. There was real fear this would wind up the way forearm tightness typically can and when it was put forward by doctors that rest might be enough, all parties involved took the risk. It’s a risk because if you’re wrong, all you’ve done is turned an already long recovery time into 5-6 months longer.

So far, it’s paid off, but the process called for not immediately putting a full workload of an MLB starter on the young man’s arm.

In 2022 Contreras was forced into early action at the MLB level. The Pirates had left themselves extremely short on pitchers on the 40-man, specifically guys who had options, so Roansy was placed in the Pirates bullpen where he’d make 3 appearances before being sent back to AAA.

Knowing they had a specific amount of innings they didn’t want to exceed altered almost every decision made surrounding Contreras in 2022. He’d wind up throwing 129.1 innings, 95 of which were in MLB.

Add in yet another strange offseason that altered the ramp up and training schedule for everyone who throws a baseball, and the Pirates did well to get that volume out of him, especially if the preseason chatter he’d be held to close to 100 check out.

The numbers for the rookie were really solid. An ERA of 3.79 in 21 games with 18 starts. 39 walks, 86 strike outs, a WHIP of 1.274, no matter how you look at it, Contreras had an effective rookie campaign.

Now entering 2023, Roansy is being counted on to be one of their best starting pitchers. The Pirates will still have a plan for his usage, and it’ll disappoint anyone who expects him to get a volume that all the top pitchers in the game carry. I’d put that number around 165-175, which would get a guy in the top 35-40 league wide. The important number for Roansy is his entire 2022 body of work which again was 129.1.

I’d expect the Pirates to up that target number to at least 150, maybe 160, but that’s going to continue to mean some shorter outings for Ro.

OK, so innings load should ramp up, that’s good. What else does he have to work on to take the next step?

First, his fastball, slider and curve are all plus pitches. Sharpening is easy to say, and almost always the go to suggestion for a young pitcher, so I’ll spare you that. Of course hitting your spots is important.

Lets talk through some percentile placements amongst his peers in MLB. For one thing, he has a really good Whiff% of 64 and a Chase Rate% of 82, that somehow have only created a K% of 38. Couple things here, one, I think part of this is evolution, it takes time for a young pitcher who could so badly fool most hitters in AA or AAA with a 3000RPM breaking pitch to swing outside the zone, to convince themselves that their stuff is so good they can afford to throw it at least closer to the zone. We saw some of this with Mitch Keller, although Roansy has not struggled nearly to the degree Mitch did.

I say this noting he also has a world class Chase Rate% of 82, but to turn some of those chases into K’s, he’ll need to realize enticing MLB hitters to take a hack at something with two strikes, it better be close enough to convince them a take would make them look worse than swinging at something off the plate.

Next, Roansy throws a changeup, but he only threw it 46 times last season, or 2.9% of the time. Don’t get me wrong, Roansy’s curveball acts as his change of pace and if he never develops this pitch he could still be a quite effective pitcher, but I love the thought of having a solid changeup in his quiver. Something like that could help keep guys off the fastball and creep down his hard hit rate a bit.

Even the Curve he only threw 14.4% of the time, and at some point major league hitters have to have their timing messed with more than 16-17% of the time, even if your high velo offerings are top notch.

To a degree, he’s already shown the ability to adjust, but he could stand to reign in his hard hit rate and the higher than league average launch angle results. This is why I’d put some emphasis on further developing the changeup and using the curve a bit more. Contreras needs to have more offerings in the bottom of the zone, and both of those pitches would help push back against a league that will absolutely have him well scouted this time around.

Year two is important for every player, clearly, but for a pitcher who experienced success as a rookie, in many ways the pressure is greater.

One thing he’s shown us, almost more than anything measurable, is the ability to not lose focus and continue to throw his pitches.

I don’t write all this to say you should be concerned or that he’s going to turn into a pumpkin this season, but I also think it’s entirely reasonable to expect he’ll run into at least a little more resistance than he faced last year.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Pirates Rule 5 Logjam Could Continue

1-26-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Earlier in the week when I wrote about the Power Bats in the Pirates Farm System, the topic of Rule 5 Eligibility was briefly mentioned at the end of the post; which really got me thinking about next crop of prospects that will join the ranks of those needing to be protected from the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

Obviously this doesn’t just include first time eligible players, as I can think of several prospects that may need to be added in what would be at least their second go-around in the process; if everything goes well, and/or they are not selected to the 40-Man in season.

At the top of my list is soon to be 21 year-old Dariel Lopez. Last season in Greensboro Lopez slashed .286/.329/.476 with 19 homers.

Closely behind in the second spot would have to be Matt Gorski. Had it not been for his hamstring injury we could have seen a lot more of Gorski; still, his .280/.358/.598 slash line with 24 homers is pretty impressive.

Magic number three is Malcom Nunez. Between Double-A in the Cardinals and Pirates Farm System-with a sprinkle of Triple-A-he slashed .262/.367/.466 with 23 homers.

Coming in at four-even though there are two catching prospects ahead of him-you find Abrahan Guiterrez. Guiterrez was Endy’s fellow catcher in Greensboro, before the now -near consensus-top back stop in the system rocketed through Altoona to Indianapolis. Left behind in Greensboro the former Philadelphia Phillies Prospect slashed .257/.356/.411 with 12 homers, while providing above average defense at catcher and 1st Base.

Rounding out the top 5-because I always seem to make groups of 5-i ended up landing on Tahnaj Thomas slightly ahead of JC Flowers. Thomas-a former Top 100 Prospect-has moved to the bullpen, but still has his 100 mph fastball, which is the only thing that keeps him ahead of Flowers at the moment. For comparison’s sake, Thomas posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.263 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 50.2 innings, versus a 2.88 ERA with a 1.180 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 68.2 innings for Flowers; both in Double-A Altoona.

The wildcard is Cody Bolton; who after two years off the mound, put up a respectable 3.09 ERA with a 1.282 WHIP and 82 strikeouts across 75.2 innings of work with the Indianapolis Indians.

Then, you pile on the 50+ guys that become eligible in December of 2023; headlined by Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski and a couple of my personal favorites in Jase Bowen and Tsung-Che Cheng.

And it won’t stop there. Each year the number of prospects seem to multiply, either by sheer volume or based on the highly touted players the Pirates will have to make decisions on.

As I’ve always said, for me the Rule 5 Draft is more about who the Pirates choose to protect, rather than who is left off the 40-Man. It obviously doesn’t mean that these players won’t get their opportunity, or in some cases be successful; but, it has shown us who the next man up will be.

Throw out the 2019-20 off-season even though Cody Ponce, Will Craig and Blake Cederlind made cameo appearances; while Ke’Bryan Hayes played like Ted Williams for a month. At the time of these decision(s), Cherington was maybe on the job for a week at most.

Moving ahead to 2021, Max Kranick and Rodolfo Castro were protected, with the later getting the call-up from Altoona more than once over some other players in Triple. When, it comes to Kranick his debut-at the end of June-was fairly memorable, as he carried a no-hitter through five innings.

Then just last year, Jack Suwinski jumped over Triple-A, Diego Castillo was on the Opening Day Roster and Canaan Smith-Njigba seemed to be in position to get a longer look, until he broke his wrist.

Sure other players have gotten looks or emerged, but those guys usually got the first crack; and for now, things have kind of worked themselves out.

So, at this point I guess my way of thinking comes down to, what do you do when the depth the Pirates have built up is in some ways overflowing?

Well, I would hope that the best option would be to have the cream of the crop rise to the top-House of Pain Style-and then trade off those that still have some shine; which is something I punctuated in a blog post about a month ago, that dealt with Capitalizing On Prospect Depth. Yes, I realize the word trade is pretty taboo in these parts, but, it’s something every other team in MLB does to acquire Major League Talent. Sure other teams are more active on the free agent front, however-as I have already stated countless times-this may never be a viable route for the Pirates.

Obviously, this sentiment doesn’t go over very well with Pirates Fans.

Nevertheless, until something changes in MLB, and/or the Pirates begin to operate differently, this long jam and the way it is addressed will be focused on a lot; each and every year.