The Evolution of Rodolfo Castro

1-25-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

2023 will be the third season of Major League baseball that Rodolfo Castro has participated in and it’ll also be his most important.

See, nobody expected the 21 year old kid called up from AA in April of 2021 to do much of anything. Even to those of us who had watched him and looked forward to his arrival thought it was a bit rushed.

Still, we were happy to see him, and while he largely struggled, his first 5 hits were homeruns. This created a narrative that Castro was “swinging for the fences” every time he came to the dish, but to say that is to ignore his track record. Swinging hard, missing a lot, punishing the ball when he got one, these were the calling cards for the young Dominican by the time he reached Low A as a 19 year old.

2021 was just a cup of coffee for Rodolfo. 2022 was almost a perfect split between AAA and MLB. Up and down, mistakes and triumph, athletic prowess mixed with painful lapses in focus, you know, a rookie.

He was given a run at SS, 19 games to be exact, and it didn’t go well. He was asked to cover 3B 24 times, and he looked much more at home over there. Finally the Pirates moved him to 2B for 32 games and while it wasn’t perfect, at least his issues were more about decision making and inexperience than they were lacking the ability.

By the vast majority of the fan base (and this writer in particular) Castro is for now the top 2B, in other words it should be his position to lose as we head to Spring.

All that base shuffling was important. Finding out where Rodolfo can help, and maybe shouldn’t is simply information you have to have moving forward.

For years I’ve been telling you the bats will tell the story, and determine who plays. So as these prospects filter on in, seeing them bounce around really says less about how the team feels about that player in particular in the field as it speaks to how much they believe this player’s bat could force them to find a place for him to play.

In 2022, Castro played in 71 ballgames and took 278 plate appearances. With those at bats he hit 11 homeruns, 4 triples, 8 doubles, walked 22 times and struck out 74. All of this gave him an acceptable OPS of .725 and collectively with his defensive work he put forward a 1.4 WAR season.

Not great, not bad, but securely in the above average range.

In 2023, Castro’s next step will be interesting. The Pirates are going to likely want to get him into the 500-550 plate appearances echelon. To do that, he’s going to likely get a ton of time at second base.

Now, before you jump down my throat with your I want to see Ji-hwan Bae takes. Before you tell me Nick Gonzales is the future. Before you argue that Liover Peguero and his superior range would be a better 2B, let’s not ignore what Castro has already shown, and why its key to find out what he can do at the plate to the degree I feel he has to get those at bats.

In all the time he’s gotten at this level, Rudy has taken 371 plate appearances, and he’s hit 16 homeruns with them. If you forecast out what his 162 game average would look like even if he stayed at this level of production you get to 25 homeruns. Let me clarify that, if he gets no better, that’s a nice bat with enough OPS to matter and easily a 3+ WAR player.

That could very well add up to Castro being a utility guy mind you.

Folks, if you get that out of a player, I don’t care where he plays, he’s going to get more at bats.

Now, back to the very valid concerns about some of the other guys who should or could take some of that playing time or at bats. If you’re really thinking about the future of this position, I can’t sit here and tell you Castro will hold it down defensively, but I can say, if you give him the at bats in 2023 and he proves out that side of his game minimally, boy a nice homegrown DH who switch hits and can pop 25 homeruns is pretty attractive too isn’t it?

What this could mean for this team moving forward, well, it could mean they have no reason to go get a Carlos Santana in 2024.

Rookies don’t always burst on the scene and stake claim to the position they were always supposed to play. While there is no guarantee Castro will remain at 2B, there is no guarantee Bae, Gonzales, Peguero or I’ll even throw in Tucupita Marcano will ever hit to even the level Rodolfo already has. With what the Pirates have done to the roster this offseason, they’ve certainly improved the team, but they’ve also made at bats for youngsters a premium commodity.

They must spend them wisely. Kicking the can down the road on someone like Castro will only leave questions lingering into 2024 about his abilities.

I expect many of the names I listed in this piece to get much the same chance to play that Castro himself received in 2021. They may have to get creative about making that happen. Meaning, if they were to have someone like Peguero take a big step early, well, he’s on the 40-man, and already in his second year of being rostered, the Pirates should rightly have some urgency to start the process.

Ji-hwan Bae just made the roster at the end of 2022, while I’m very interested to see him, they may have to take advantage of his ability to play other spots to work his bat in.

Nick Gonzales isn’t even on the 40-man, and honestly the urgency to get him up here is arguably greater on the fan front than to the team.

Marcano is simply not someone I fully understand as a prospect as we sit here. I think he can play a little at a lot of places, but I’m not sure I’ve seen the signs the bat is going to matter quite yet.

Bottom line, I want to see the Pirates do whatever is necessary to make sure Castro gets a full bucket of at bats, and if that comes at the expense of someone else, it’s worth it just to answer the question to me.

I’m going to add in one more caveat here that I think matters, and directly speaks to why I’d like to see some consistency at second base this season. This position matters to the development of Oneil Cruz too. Having a consistent double play partner should help eliminate one aspect of defense he’s concerned about, allowing him to focus on just making plays.

Developing prospects doesn’t stop when you get called up, and for Rodolfo Castro 2023 is his chance to prove he’s officially finished being a prospect, and ready to call himself a major leaguer.

Are The Pirates Setting A Higher Bar?

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-yvkvm-13718f0

Look at this Pittsburgh Pirates roster and notice a group of veterans standing in the way of hopeful prospects. That isn’t a bad thing. Let’s talk about how competition is the next phase in creating a winning organization in “30 Minutes of Pirates Talk!”

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Power Bats

I absolutely love it when people act like a prospect came out of nowhere. Sure, he might not have had the attention and/or the same prospect ranking as others, but it’s not like he was invisible either.

Can we really pretend like a player that was drafted in the 2nd round out of a Big Ten school just miraculously appeared on a roster, and immediately started smashing baseball’s like he never did before?

These types of players exist. We don’t have to create them.

Nevertheless, I digress.

Much like the Arms, Arms, Arms piece mentioned last week, power bats are inherently expensive.

You want 30 home runs from a player, you better be ready to open up your pocketbook. It’s either that or you have to develop a player that can produce at this level within a few years of him reaching the Majors.

For the Pirates, the latter option is the most likely scenario.

1) Matt Gorski-OF/1B/DH

Not surprisingly this is the aforementioned 2nd Round Draft Pick out of the University of Indiana; who came into the year, prepared for his second go-around with the Greensboro Grasshoppers.

Back in 2021, Gorski had struggled at the plate to the tune of a .224/.294/.416 slash line with a 31.2% K to 8.5% BB rate, as he shook off the rust from a lost 2020 Minor League Season. He did show some power by blasting 17 homers, but the other numbers were hard to ignore.

At a full year and half years older than the average player in the South Atlantic League, the former Hoosier jumped out to an extremely fast start. Through 37 games, Gorski was batting .294 with an 1.131 OPS, 17 homers and a 26.7% K to 11.6% BB rate; which ultimately lead to a promotion to Altoona.

With the Curve, the big power hitting righty didn’t slow down too much; slashing .294/.374/.560 with 6 home runs. His K rate did increase slightly to 29.6%, but his BB rated stayed slightly above 10%.

Then, unfortunately, his season nearly ended as his hamstring looked like it pretty much exploded as he stretched a double into a triple on June 29th against the Harrisburg Senators.

Gorski would return before the end of the year, but he clearly wasn’t himself. After 55 plate appearances across 14 games, he was eventually placed back on the IL; and, was withdrawn from participating in the Arizona Fall League.

Since then, we really haven’t heard much about Gorski’s rehab; although there have been some rumblings about him getting in a little bit more work at 1st Base once Spring Training starts.

To me it doesn’t matter where he plays, as long as the power stays and the K to BB ratio remains manageable.

2) Malcom Nunez-1B/3B

Nunez is a player that I already dug into during a recent post about prospects that were Peaking My Interest-yes I know it is Piquing; so, there isn’t as much of a need to break down the young man’s performance, both before and after arriving in the Pirates Farm System as part of the Jose Quintana trade.

What I will say is that, the more I look at Nunez’s power numbers, less I believe that they were overly exaggerated by playing in a smaller ballpark in the Cardinals Farm System. Sure, there could be a slight correlation; however, most of the homers I watched were complete no-doubters.

Is there anyway this isn’t out of every ballpark?

Plus, as I stated before in the previous post, the power didn’t really dissipate once he arrived in Altoona; as his ISO (Isolated Power) only dropped from .208 to .190.

Add in the fact that he was able to maintain his BB-rate of over 13% for the entire season; which could mean that he avoids the normal pitfall for power hitters.

A third baseman by trade, Nunez has started the move to first base due to some defensive concerns at the hot corner. However, if you ask Anthony Murphy from Pirates Prospects, these concerns might be a little bit overstated.

I can’t say I disagree.

3) Dariel Lopez

The first time I wrote about Lopez during the 2021-22 off-season, I mentioned the possibility of him moving across the diamond from 3rd to 1st, as well as how well he performed in comparison to the other players his age; but, mostly I focused on the concerns that existed with his extreme splits.

When facing right-handed pitchers- as a Marauder-he possessed an .662 OPS versus an 1.037 with a lefty on the mound. This past season with Greensboro it flip-flopped quite a lot as he had an OPS of .850 against righties and .643 opposing lefties. However, almost immediately another potential issue popped up.

Everyone knows that First National Bank Field is a bandbox, that often magnifies home-road splits in favor of the time that is spent in Greensboro. For Lopez, the situation was no different. At home he had a .915 OPS with 15 homers in 213 plate appearances, as compared to 4 homers with an .692 OPS on the road.

Be that as it may, Lopez still has a few things going for him; including youth, a track record of being able to make adjustments to correct extreme splits and some of the better center to opposite-field power in the system; even though he did start pulling the ball more with the Grasshoppers.

4) Henry Davis-C

When you initially look at the power numbers, they may seem slightly underwhelming. Yet, when consider that he has literally been healthy for-at most-67 games during his first year and a half of his professional career, things start to look more promising. .

Throw out the home run Davis hit on his rehab assignment in Bradenton and you have 9 on the season between High-A and Double-A. Obviously this isn’t going to jump off the page.

Now, think about him having a full season of at bats, without a broken wrist. The total easy jumps over 20, if you extrapolate it out to 500+ trips to the plate.

Yes, I realize that you can’t just ignore the facts as the exist. He hasn’t had a healthy season, since being draft. He gets hit by pitches so often that it has almost become comical; but, also could put him at high risk for re-injury in the same breath.

Still, I can’t reject the absolute violent swing I witnessed as Davis took the #1 Minor League Pitching Prospect-Andrew Painter-deep on his first offering.

With Davis, health is clearly the biggest concern. His ability to play catcher is a distant second.

But, Craig we don’t want to waste the 70 Grade arm at another position!

Well let me ask you this.

Would you care about a third basemen’s arm if he booted every ball into left field? Or a right fielder’s arm, who dropped every pop up the came his way?

Clearly this is an exaggeration. Davis’ defense behind the plate is lacking, but he’s not totally incompetent. Plus, what would it matter if he hits, or nails a runner-with a laser from them outfield-as he tries to stretch a single into a double? Or tags first, and then catches a runner on his way to the plate?

Would you think about his wasted arm?

5) Mason Martin-1B

The discussions surrounding Martin’s ability to take the next step-up onto the Major League Stage-always come back to the same topic; time and time again.

It’s the K-rate; plain and simple.

No one is doubting the power potential. I mean no one.

In 2019 Martin burst onto the scene with 35 homers between then Low-A Greensboro and High-A Bradenton. Then, when Minor League Baseball resumed in 2021, he mashed 25 balls over fence in Altoona and Indianapolis. Each of them in impressive fashion, with his raw power on full display.

Nevertheless-along with the power-there was always this constant nagging to check the stat-line to see how many times he struck-out; and, unsurprisingly the result was the same.

29% in Greensboro. 32.3% in Bradenton. 34.2% in Altoona. 37% in Indianapolis.

In conjunction with a walk rate that averages out to right around 10%-that had been decreasing over those years. This made 2022 a very crucial year for Martin; but one that also came with a lot of opportunity due to the lack of answers at the MLB Level at 1st Base.

Now-aside from the power-another that has never been questioned, is his ability to man 1st Base. Since being used as both a 1st Basemen and Outfielder in the Gulf Coast League-now the Florida Complex League-Martin has fully transitioned into a full-time guard of the other hot corner; doing very well in the role.

So, it’s back to the bat.

Unfortunately, during his most recent season with the Indians, he fell into a similar pattern; eventually posting the worst OPS of his career. On the year he slashed .210/.287/.410 with 19 home runs and 34.9% K to 9.6% BB ratio.

Man, do I wish this kid could find some balance; because there is no doubt his swing would play well at PNC Park.

Conclusion

It feels like potentially 1st Base options of the future became the theme of this post; even if it wasn’t entirely intentional. Although if you think about it, this position-more than many others-has lacked power and consistency throughout the recent history of the Pirates.

Another underlying-and unintentional-theme is that 4 of these 5 prospects will be Rule 5 Eligible again in December 2023; with Davis as the outlier.

I get that there are 38 spots on the Minor League Reserve Roster-granted that none of them end up on the 40-Man/Major League Roster-to end the season. But, in all honesty, how many 1st Baseman can you protect; with only one, or maybe two spots available on the Active Roster, if you keep the DH in mind?

In any case, it should be fun to watch this play out during the upcoming season.

Can we talk about Reynolds?

1-24-23 – By Justin Verno – @JV_Pitt on Twitter

I’m not sure starting something like this off with a disclaimer is normal, but here goes:

DISCLAIMER-I am not advocating to trade Bryan Reynolds with this piece. I’m always of the opinion that the return should always determine if a team should or should not have made a trade.

But if we are being honest here, the rumors will persist. They will grow and rattle and multiply until the Pirates front office extends him. Trades him. Or flat out takes him off the market: and even then I’m quite certain we hear some rumors like “the Yankees will make a run at Bryan Reynolds at the deadline” type whispers.

One specific rumor has me, I guess you can say annoyed. And not because it’s out there but because of the fan reaction to it and the pure ridiculousness of it. And whether you take it on the surface or delve into the details of what the rumor implies, it makes no sense.

The rumor? That Ben Cherington is looking for a “Juan Soto type return”. And you’ll have to forgive me here as for the life of me I cannot recall who first shouted that the theater was on fire, most likely due to the mad rush to the door and ensuing screams and mayhem that followed. Twitter has been a blur of people trampling over people and screaming how dare they, Bryan Reynolds is not Juan Soto.

First off let’s start out with admitting the obvious, Bryan Reynolds is in fact, not Juan Soto. B-Rey is good, really really really good. A .281/.361/.481 slash line is excellent and any team would love to have that in their line up. However, it isn’t .287/.424/.516. The biggest separation in their games is the OPS and wRC+. With Reynolds bolstering a healthy .842 and 126 to Juan’s .950 and 153. Did I mention Soto is just 24 and has already amassed an fWAR of 22.8? He’s elite. Reynolds is excellent, he’s not elite.

With that out of the way let’s take a look at WHY this rumor is just ridiculous. Ken Rosenthal is one of the insiders that broke that the Bucs are looking for a Soto type return. But lets take a look at the entire quote-

“One rival official, in what surely was an exaggeration, said the Pirates want a ‘Soto-type package’ for Reynolds. Another said Reynolds is ‘super expensive.’ A third described him as ‘unlikely to move.'”

The important part of the quote gets ignored, “in what surely was an exaggeration”. I’m not why people look past that, but it’s very important to note. It drastically changes the perception and honestly sounds like a GM frustrated by failed attempts to acquire Reynolds. Another reason I find this rumor silly? We have heard exactly one package that GMBC has asked for or at the least the overall frame work of it.

That rumored package? GMBC asked for 2 of the Yankees top 3 of Anthony Volpe, Oswald Pereza and Jason Dominguez and 2 more of their ‘top prospects’. Is this a Jaun Soto type return? What would a Soto type return look like? Welp, lets get to it.

The Soto Deal-

It’s been a few months and finding Soto’s projections and Surplus Value has proven too much. But if memory serves me right his SV was somewhere around $99 million(shout out to Joe Boyd for the assist there). (here’s Bryan Reynolds for comparison sake. NOTE: the new projections are out and the market is high putting Reynolds SV closer to $65M)

Padres- Juan Soto and Josh Bell

Nationals- CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, James Woods, Robert Susana, MacKenzie Gore and Luke Voit

Let’s put Voit and Bell aside as neither had much value due to being rentals. This deal was about Soto for the prospects and MacKenzie Gore.

CJ Abrams-SS- ETA:2021 FV 60($55M)

The 16th ranked prospect per Fangraphs. Debuting at 21 years old. Big time get.

James Wood-OF-ETA:2026 FV 60($55M)

Rocketing up boards.

Robert Hassell III-OF- ETA:2023 FV 50($28M)

Flying thru the MILB systems.

Jarlin Susana-SP-ETA:2027 FV 40+($3M)

Big time FB/SL upside.

MacKenzie Gore-SP MLB SV using low side projections $30M

Add it all together and the Nationals received $171 million in trade value, in what looks like an overpay for Soto.

And Reynolds?

The only reported ask we have seen is the Yankee package I referenced above. 2 of Volpe, Pereza and Dominguez. How does that compare?

Anthony Volpe-SS-FV 60($55M)

Oswald Pereza-OF/SS/2B-FV 50($28M)

Jason Dominguez-OF-FV 50($28M)

Volpe and either Pereza or Dominguez come out to $83M. The rumor also suggests that the Bucs want “2 more top prospects”. The next 2 prospects for the Yankees are Yoendrys Gomez, SP 45+($6M) and Everson Pereira, OF 45+($8M). If Yanks were to agree to this type of a deal they’d be overpaying for Reynolds to the tune of $32M.($97M) Hardly a “Soto esq” deal.

What about a Dominguez ($28M), Pereza($28M), Gomez and Pereira package? That shakes out to $70M return. A slight overpay(By $5M) and a much easier deal to swallow, it’s nowhere NEAR a “Soto” type package.

I can’t say why this bothers me so much. Of course any good GM will seek an overpay on a Bryan Reynolds. 3 years of control matters and he should make it clear that if he is to move his best player that he needs a package he simply cannot say no to. I promise I am not saying they should move Bryan Reynolds.

Sitting here today it looks less likely that GMBC does indeed trade Reynolds. But if teams persist and keep upping the pot? If GMBC knows that he just won’t be able to get an extension done? I can see the perfect storm converging.

I think it’s important for fans to be realistic in the kind of return to expect. And Frankly, rumors about GMBC wanting a “Soto” type of return doesn’t really help when viewing it thru those glasses. If GMBC holds to a huge overpay it shows he really doesn’t want to move Reynolds. If GMBC does get the booty he needs and Reynolds finds himself in another city there’s one thing I can promise you. You aren’t going to like it anyway.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

1-23-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

There isn’t much the Pirates could do on paper that would merit the response they received for signing Andrew McCutchen, but when you focus on the field, or what this team could actually get done this year, it’s arguably not even in the top 5.

That’s fandom in a nutshell sometimes. What excites us isn’t always what’s most important. Thing is, when you haven’t had many reasons to smile in recent years, you could argue that in and of itself made this a priority.

Lots to think about this week, lets go…

1. If This Team Wins…

Most of the additions to this team have been position players. Cutch, Santana, Choi, Joe, Hedges, but if this team really shows marked improvement this year it’ll be because they pitched.

This is going to sound crazy when I first say it but think about it for a minute, the Pirates were extremely fortunate with health in their starting rotation last season.

They had next to nothing backing their rotation, and we saw what injury did to the bullpen as the season played out. It all added up to 100 losses, so largely it didn’t matter record wise, but when I really sit back and think about what a lengthy injury to Keller or Contreras, even Brubaker would have caused them to do, man, it’s not pretty.

They potentially could have had to tap into someone they really didn’t want to force into action yet, or we could have watched 2 months of Jerad Eickhoff.

This season, it’s not like you want to see guys dropping like flies, but if they do, they actually have a solid layer of depth.

Pitching is still probably not at the level it needs to be, but I can honestly say, some of the guys who wind up starting in AAA this year are already better than guys who spent the entire year in MLB last season. Watching this slowly transition and merge in new players is really going to be interesting.

When a guy underperforms in the bullpen, chances are they have 3-4 guys in AAA who you could legitimately look at as relief. If they manage this properly, with all the options to move up and down they’ve baked in, we could see a very strong aspect of this team emerge.

If they’re going to win, it almost has to.

The overall staff is better, and the depth is better, time to perform and manage it well.

2. Will They Hit Though?

It’s funny, I personally feel pretty good about the pitching staff, but according to comments I see from fans, most of you seem more upbeat about the offense. Strange how we can all look at the same things and see things differently isn’t it? Doesn’t make me right and you wrong or vice versa, but it just goes to show how much this stuff is little more than an educated guess.

All that being said, the offensive potential is there, my struggle is the shear number of players I feel have to grow, turnaround, fix a hole, improve an aspect, become more consistent, or flat out change their approach.

I think McCutchen, Santana, Choi, and Hedges, are all pretty proven out commodities. At all their ages it’s very unlikely an upswing is coming, but what they did last year is probably achievable in 2023. For Hedges, that’s wholly unexciting. For the other three, even repeat performances from 2022 would be welcome.

Then you have youngsters who have things to work on but you can be reasonably hopeful for improvement. That’s Cruz, Hayes, Suwinski, and Castro.

Tack on from there the guys who were good, are good and will very likely be good, Bryan Reynolds. Not much here huh?

And onto kids who haven’t really had much if any opportunity yet but surely will. Bae, Rodriguez, Gonzales, Peguero, Smith-Njigba, Swaggerty, I’d maybe even toss Mitchell in here.

So I can easily see a world where those vets all do what they’re supposed to do, and a couple of those kids improve. Get to the point where you have a lineup that’s 6-7 deep with actual hitters, and real offense is doable.

If nothing else, I feel good saying it’s less defined than I see the pitching staff.

I’ll also add, the offense was historically stinky in 2022, so getting worse with these additions is VERY unlikely. Maybe that’s the best way to see it.

3. Should We Just Assume Heineman is the Backup Catcher?

Man, it sure feels that way as we sit here.

The coach all the way back at the Winter Meetings decided to take the plausibility of Endy making the club out of camp off the table.

One thing is clear, the Pirates apparently don’t want to head to camp with a clear cut backup catcher, at least not yet.

Austin Hedges will be the starter, and defensively, it’s hard to argue that’s the right call, but you’d like to think they’d want to bring at least a bit of an offensive threat into the picture right?

The options as we sit here are, Tyler Heineman, Carter Bins, and Jason Delay. Henry Davis isn’t in this mix for the same reasons Endy isn’t, on top of quite literally not being close to where Endy is in development.

I’d have to imagine the Pirates would love if Carter Bins made it, he’s 24 and would give them a younger option behind the dish who has some offensive ability, at least from a power standpoint, but his glove has been a question and he’s certainly not been a contact hitter.

Heineman and Delay got plenty of time last year to show what they were since the Pirates chose to not replace starting catcher Roberto Perez after his injury. All indications are that the team was pretty comfortable and happy with both of them defensively, but neither offer real offensive upside.

Now, this team clearly prioritizes defense at the position, and they likely aren’t looking for anyone who could hold Endy back longer than they already plan to.

The way I see this, Spring will be a competition to see which of Bins, Delay and Heineman wins the backup gig, with an outside shot the team picks up someone they like who gets cut toward the end of Spring by another team. But I don’t see them signing another before then.

This is going to sound very similar to what I said last season but hell, I’ll do it anyway. it’s really weird to hear a team put so very much priority on the importance of a position, yet provide themselves no depth. The one thing I can add for 2023 is that now they have depth, and talented depth, but they’re going to not allow it to help.

Endy isn’t a finished product either, so I’m not getting weird and claiming they’ve screwed up before we even get started, but it feels to me like they’ve invested enough into the team this year to not fumble on the 5 yard line with the catching position.

If there is an injury to Hedges, I’d hope we at least would see them change course on Endy. Watching him learn on the job might still be better than starting Heineman for 65 games.

4. Crucial Season for Some?

The Pirates are still a relatively young team, but with a wave of prospects on the doorstep, and some guys reaching a point where the team has to make decisions, 2023 is a big year for a few guys in particular, and for different reasons.

JT Brubaker – I have little doubt JT is going to get another shot at starting. If nothing else he gave the Pirates 144 innings last season and is likely to be tasked with even more in 2023, but at some point, innings alone won’t cut it, quality innings need to win out. Competition for the rotation is about to ramp up, and JT has 2 years of arbitration left after this season. His stuff would play in the bullpen, so it may not be crucial for his overall existence on the team, but if he’s to remain a starter, he’ll need to provide those innings with a sub 4.00 ERA one would imagine. Otherwise, he’s going to get run over.

Rodolfo Castro – Let’s start with this, it’s strange to say a 23 year old is at the point where he’s facing anything “critical” but I truly feel it is for him. He debuted in 2021, got a good long look last year and I firmly believe he’ll get the beginning of this season to prove second base is his. He’s played all of 102 games, had 371 plate appearances and what makes him exciting is that’s led to 16 homeruns and a .707 OPS. He’s got room before he reaches his ceiling too, but he’s got pressure coming from behind. Ji-hwan Bae, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Jared Triolo, and Tucupita Marcano could all push him out of the way should he not show he’s capable of limiting the strikeouts and improving on that OPS a bit. He could stand to improve defensively a bit too, but either way, 2023 is going to be big for determining if he’s a starter, or a bench player.

Jack Suwinski – The way I see it, Jack either proves he’s an everyday player this season or he proves he’s a platoon player. Hitting 19 homeruns in 372 plate appearances already screams MLB player in my mind. You’d like to see a little less all or nothing though. I mean the kid had 30 extra base hits in 2022, 19 dingers, 11 doubles. 36 singles make up the rest of his hits, all of this added up to an OBP of only .298. We all know how downright silly his splits were but Jack has to learn how to do damage against lefties, and how to do more, and specifically more consistent damage against everyone. I wouldn’t say he has a lot of super highly touted talent pushing him aside, but the way everything else is shaping up on the roster, what he’s put up so far won’t likely have the team feeling comfortable making him an everyday starter unless he changes these trends a bit.

Oneil Cruz – Look, Cruz has an exciting bat, he’s done nearly the same as Jack Suwinski with a higher OPS and SLG, that’s not his problem. That said, Cruz does still have some things to work on at the plate. Specifically against left handed pitching. Here’s the weird thing though, I don’t think it’s as start as it is for Jack. Cruz’ crucial season for me comes in the field. He’s going to get another shot at SS, and I don’t mean a few weeks, I’d suspect he’ll get the majority of 2023. In 77 games he committed 17 errors, and while you can attribute some of those to the first base position, you all watched, Michael Chavis saved him a few times too. These things tend to even out, and I feel they largely did in 2022. Cruz needs to prove he can play the position he clearly wants to play, and the Pirates need to prove they’ll make a decision, even if uncomfortable after they’ve given him a real crack at it. I can’t see this going into 2024 unanswered. If he has an out, it’s likely that the Pirates don’t feel strongly about their other options at SS. Liover Peguero has all the tools (so does Cruz) but he too has struggled mightily in the field. Beyond him, well, you’re talking 2025 timeframe solutions unless Triolo hits.

5. Want to Play the What if Game?

It is what it is, I make no claim this is likely but say come July 25th or so the Pirates somehow are 4-5 games out of a Wild Card spot. How would they approach it?

Think about it, trading guys like Vince Velasquez, Rich Hill, Austin Hedges, Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, could all be on the table, but if the team somehow was in the conversation, would they still do it?

If they didn’t, what would that mean for 2024? None of these guys are answers for next season, even if they were to retain each for another season, and the same reason you went out and got these guys would still be in play. Not wanting to start rookies with no experience would still not be attractive right?

Don’t get me wrong, if the Pirates get to that point somehow, first, I’d be really really surprised, and already very wrong about my estimations for growth and performance. Second I don’t think I’d feel like writing about this “problem” and you likely wouldn’t want to read about it either.

So the relevant conversation we can have about it right now is, what would you want them to do?

Would you want them to go out and get something they needed and make a push for that lowest of playoff positions? Are you more of the mind that they should just let it play out, maybe move one of them but not most?

Perhaps you’d prefer they just stay the course and move who they planned to move, the plan is the plan, get those kids up here. Basically we want it done right, and we’ve hurt this long, finish it up.

Of course I haven’t put forward the best case scenario.

They’re in this position, and prospects have already had to help along the way due to injury, or ineffectiveness. So when you look to move someone like Hill or Santana, you already feel good about Oviedo and Gonzales. In other words, best case is the prospects push the vets aside and the Pirates get the best of both worlds.

No matter what, even if this is a longshot, it’s interesting to think about how they might handle it. What direction would you approach? Did I even cover all the points of consideration, like does it matter if it’s the Pirates who are close and only them as opposed to a group of teams?

Even strength of remaining schedule could be a factor.

Man, see, that’s some fun stuff that even being in the conversation for the playoffs starts to bring to a fanbase that is already talking Steelers camp in July instead.

Even if not this season, it’s growing closer, and the path from here to there is much more murky than 2020-Now has been.

This team has bottomed out for 3 straight seasons under this GM, and the reason was to bring in talent, via draft, trade, signing, rule 5, and develop it. We’re right on the doorstep of finding out about that develop part. There is a nice chunk of talent here, and close now, they’ve done that part, now it has to become more than what it left for, more than what we’ve suffered through watching.

Have a great week everyone, the Journey starts in about 3 weeks.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Pirates Prospect Rankings

1-22-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

The last season Bryan Reynolds was a prospect, he didn’t make his way inside the Top 100; and, he barely fit inside the Pirates Top 10. Four years later we are battling with the idea of having our best player asking for a trade.

That same year Travis Swaggerty was at #3, Cole Tucker was projected at #5 and Kevin Newman sat right behind at #6.

If you turn back the clock to 2018, and you would find Miguel Andujar comfortably within the Top 100. Now he’s been designated for assignment. In 2015 Robert Stephenson was at 26, Austin Edges was 51 and Vince Velasquez was at 86.

I could keep on going, but I want to warn you…we will be be here for a while.

Like a long time. No joke.

It’s fine. I get it

Many people don’t want to have anything to do with prospects until they see what they perceive as an unfavorable assessment.

However, without getting fully engulfed in every aspect of the system, it’s tough to gauge how negative everything truly is.

I’ve heard more than once that this is Ben Cherington’s third year building the system; yet, I have a hard time buying into this theory.

How much of the system was able to get built in 2020?

What portion of 2021 was spent trying to catch up from the time lost in 2020?

Did you pay attention to all of the changes the Pirates made to the development system in 2022?

Each Minor League Team had an Integrated Baseball Performance Coach added to their staff, Dewey Robinson was hired to be a Special Advisor to Pitching Development and Chad Noble was called upon to be a Roving Catching Instructor; moving up and down throughout the Pirates Farm System on an as needed basis.

It’s a process. One that many Pirates Fans are getting exhausted with.

Now, as an act of desperation, we are using the praise laid on the Baltimore Orioles, and their miraculous turnaround to make ourselves feel bad. Their rebuild began in 2018, but it makes total sense to compare it to the Pirates because you want your team to experience the same sort of success.

Well, in order for this to even be a possibility for them, it was decided that they had to lose 115 games in 2018, 108 games in 2019 and 110 games in 2021; with what would have equated to 95 losses in the shortened 2020 season.

All too often we focus on the results, while selectively ignoring what it took to get them to where they are now.

Does this mean the process that Ben Cherington and Company have decided to undertake will work? No.

Was this the only way to do it? No.

Is it ideal to have prospects fall out of the Top 100 on any list? Also, no.

Does this mean the process is failing? Once again, that’s a no.

Even when the Pirates had what was seen as a Top 5 Farm System, it was always because of depth; not due number of highly rated prospects.

Now as far as discussion concerning individual prospects like Quinn Priester. Nowhere does it say he is a bad player, and/or isn’t going to succeed.

Earlier in the thread Cooper spoke about the difference between a player that makes the Top 100, and those that don’t.

For the record Priester was 88th on last year’s list, so what really changed? Other than dealing with an injury to begin the season, really nothing.

The writers at Baseball America did go a little more in depth with their explanation, so it is definitely worth mentioning.

Still, it’s hard for me to overreact when the young man posted a 2.98 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP between Altoona and Indianapolis.

But, if that’s your thing, have at it.

I just can’t, because eventually it comes down to actually performing on the field; which realistically won’t be affected by whether or not the player made some list.

Although, it should be noted there is one thing that could be affected by these lists, and that’s PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive), which Ethan Hullihen and Nola Jeffy did a good job breaking down on Pirates Prospects , so I won’t go into it.

It should also be noted that the staff of this and other publications didn’t agree to take on this responsibility.

Pirates DFA Miguel Andujar to Make Room for Andrew McCutchen

1-21-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

On Friday the Pirates hosted one of the most joyous press conferences they’ve had in years. Sure you could jump back to the Ke’Bryan Hayes extension, everyone was certainly happy, but nothing quite like Andrew McCutchen coming home.

Make no mistake, that’s exactly what this was, a homecoming. Andrew himself, that’s a great story, one that’s been told and told well by the player himself and all the reporters who were there for the press conference.

Minutes before the press availability, the Pirates announced that Miguel Andujar would be the corresponding move to make room for their returning fan favorite.

I’ll get into all of this, but my first impression was, wow, maybe giving guys money no longer means we should expect them to make the club and play regardless of any other input.

Before the arbitration tender deadline, the Pirates and Miguel Andujar agreed to a 1.525 Million dollar contract for 2023, a sure sign they planned to have him at the very least make the team right?

In the coming month we’d see them then go out and grab Ryan Vilade off waivers from the Colorado Rockies and then go out and make a trade to acquire Connor Joe from those same Rockies.

I had already written in recent posts, despite that contract, I was having a hard time seeing Andujar as a lock to make this team, even while I saw him having an advantage over Connor Joe because Joe has 2 options and Andujar had none.

Turns out, that lack of options had the opposite effect, making him easier to move on from than the other options.

I just wrote this on Thursday about Andujar…

“At best, Andujar is a shot at reclaiming a wasted talent, he’s also a picture frame of a very active offseason. At the end of 2022, most saw him as a lock to DH this year, now he’s fighting for a chance to make the team. Miguel has no options which gives him an advantage, but he’s fighting for a spot in the outfield which isn’t his best position (if he has one). He also has something most of his competition doesn’t, a successful MLB season. I think the Pirates have to keep one more right handed stick in addition to Andrew McCutchen for the outfield, so yeah, Andujar has a shot.“

That successful season is what most fans had hope pinned to for Miguel but if anything is true about this year’s team, the Pirates are no longer pinning most of their roster construction on hope, they’re going with track record, sprinkled with potential.

Had Andujar done well this year, he’d immediately have 2 years of arbitration remaining, meaning from the jump the team knew this was a guy who could give them a couple years, maybe a guy who brings back a piece (he still might), but nobody saw this guy popping champagne in the locker room with the boys.

One thing this really said to me, this team really wasn’t all that confident they’d get everything done that they have this offseason. And I think we’ve seen multiple instances of this that provide a bit of a window into a team trying to improve, in the near term, even as their eyes focus on down the road a bit.

We already talked about how Andujar went from probable starter to DFA in about a month. There’s no way to see that but to assume they didn’t really see the Andrew McCutchen thing happening. And for once, we don’t have to guess, we’ve been treated to one of the most detailed “how the hell did this come together” stories I’ve ever heard.

Cutch texted Bob Nutting, who went to Cherington and asked if there was anything they could do. Andrew himself didn’t see space on the roster for himself and what he can do at this age, so he was pleasantly surprised to hear Ben say there was a role for him.

See, Cutch knows himself at this point that he’s primarily a DH, the Pirates to their credit, already had Miguel Andujar, and some combination of Carlos Santana and Ji-man Choi to fill that role. So it makes sense Andrew would have seen this as a long shot, but the Pirates again to their credit, saw an opportunity to improve or at the very least be more sure about one spot they had filled.

On the other hand, this all has a very seat of your pants feel to it doesn’t it?

Like, had McCutchen texted Bob way back in November they probably don’t sign Andujar, maybe they don’t deal for Joe. Maybe they deal for Joe who can play first base, and instead of dealing for Ji-man Choi they just add Santana and call it a day.

It’s interesting in the very least. Even the signing of Santana caught me off guard a bit. Ji-man Choi isn’t some all star, but past history screams that he’s a stature of player the Pirates typically would have just thrown their hands in the air and said, this is ok.

Then boom, Santana signs, and says they’d been talking since the season ended. In fact he said part of his decision to sign here was the Pirates being easily the most excited to talk with him. All this while they’re working with Tampa to bring in Choi.

Man, that’s not very Piratey is it? At least not recently.

I’ve seen some make a big deal about the Pirates wasting 1.525 Million or whatever, but man if you saw that press conference with Cutch, you probably felt like going outside and running through a wall. Even if your brain is telling you its a relatively small signing in relation to everything else going on in MLB, your heart and ears are telling you your captain just came back, wanted to, went after it himself, thinks this is a good young team that can win and just wants to be a part of it.

Folks, he made this team that 1.525 Mil just yesterday, trust me.

Not to mention, as someone who’s followed not only this team but also the business side of this team, the roster construction aspects, seeing the Pirates willing to basically say we have a chance to get better here, F that money, well, I honestly didn’t think I’d see that kind of decision making. Not yet, if ever.

That’s encouraging.

I know some of you really thought Andujar could have done extremely well here, and even liked the few games you got to see him play last season enough to be excited, but even you have to admit Connor Joe who has two straight seasons of being MLB level and Andrew McCutchen are at least less risky.

For a team who’s team leader in OPS at .807 (Bryan Reynolds) to feel comfortable DFAing a player with a career OPS of .749, they must really feel confident they’ve brought in better. It’s really easy to just shrug and say, hey, it’s just cutting a waiver claim, and you’d certainly be right, but this isn’t Ka’ai Tom, this is someone that has experienced success, someone who legitimately played on a team who’s borderline AAAA players might actually be better than some 26-man members around the league.

Might being the optimal word.

Miguel is younger, and easily has more upside than anyone we mentioned as his replacement on the roster including Cutch but he’s also been hanging out for parts of 6 MLB seasons, taken 1,030 plate appearances, and it’s added up to a very average MLB player. The upside is there, but the special already emerged and dissipated. There’s lots of talk that the Yankees are just too stacked but man they’ve run through quite a few players from their system and never once was the answer Miguel Andujar after that extremely stellar 2018. It’s now 2023.

Take a thought process trip with me here.

Last year Jack Suwinski had super weird splits, but overall a rookie with an OPS over .700, 19 dingers, there’s some reason for excitement there. You can dig in and easily see the warts but even so, 19 homeruns for a rookie doesn’t happen everyday, he’s certainly worth exploring. It’s nowhere near as good as Andujar’s 2018 mind you.

Now say Jack simply can’t figure out how to hit lefties, he still pops em off righties, he still plays good defense, he’s still a guy you genuinely like watching, but Canaan Smith-Njigba and Matt Gorski and Ji-hwan Bae have all become better all around performers. In other words, they don’t require platooning.

It’s a thought exercise not a prediction people…keep reading.

This puts him on the bench more often, maybe even gets him bounced down to AAA. Oh he gets hot and gets a call up every now and again, but he starts to feel more like a guy who is good, but maybe not a starter. Some people start talking about that 2022 rookie year with all the homeruns and maybe he’s a change of scenery guy? The team loved that 2022 so much maybe they grip a little tighter and ask for more than they should really for a return.

Other fan bases start making Jack into a meme because he’s in every proposed trade from any Pittsburgh fan for any star player they want to trade for.

Maybe this happens for a few years.

You’ve just watched play out a very typical event in MLB. The making of a Miguel Andujar, but this time his name is Jack Suwinski.

I don’t say all this to predict Jack’s demise, I think this process through because if you watched it play out here, believe me you won’t feel about Jack the way some of you feel about Miguel today.

The mystery of a guy like Andujar makes him attractive, but if you watched that process play out, thought through how uncomfortable you’d have been heading into a season with a guy like that penciled in as a starter, considered all the prospects you wanted to see get a chance because he just wasn’t cutting it, you see why a team like this would put their money on a veteran instead.

Well, even after all that, I’m quite sure Andjuar still wouldn’t be your first choice to go on this roster. Maybe not mine either, but it’s hard to get more direct a replacement for what the team expects to get from McCutchen. A DH who can on occasion play a corner outfield spot and probably gets 450-550 at bats. I, and clearly the Pirates think Cutch is a better bet for that to equal production.

Long, long story short, this all boils to, I’m ok cutting Andujar loose.

What Are the Biggest Questions for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023?

1-20-23 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on Twitter

Yes, it’s only January, but pitchers and catchers report in less than a month’s time, so Pittsburgh Pirates baseball is just around the corner, which means it’s not to early to pose some important questions the Pirates will need to answer in this calendar year.

This off-season may not be the off-season that propels the Pirates into a contending team, but it has been eventful and much more than we’ve seen in some time from a Pittsburgh front office and management group.

It started with Ji-Man Choi and for now has concluded with the return of Andrew McCutchen and there is no doubt the team has gotten better than the final product we saw wrap up the season in 2022.

What questions do the Pirates have to answer in 2023? Well, let me pose some on my mind that I am sure are on the minds of GM Ben Cherington and the front office group.

What, or When, is the conclusion of the Bryan Reynolds Situation?

Ever since his trade request in December, the main conversation surrounding the Pirates has been whether star outfielder Bryan Reynolds would wear black and gold or be traded elsewhere.

It has been reported the Pirates offered something in the vicinity of 6-years, $75-million, a number that Reynolds’ camp said was not enough and that they see him as a three-figure player. I’ll shy away from contract conversation for the most part, but its worth noting the Pirates at least offered something.

The situation has cooled off now for the most part, mainly due to the immense asking price the Pirates want for Reynolds seeing as he is still under team control through 2025. That of course doesn’t stop Twitter GMs from making mock trades featuring Reynolds, all being deals neither team would likely do, but this situation has to be front and center for the Pirates and the future of the team.

All signs point to Reynolds wanting to be a Pittsburgh Pirate and to get an extension done. Do we see that before the conclusion of Spring Training? Who knows? If it extends into the regular season, things get shaky on what direction the team goes with it. It’s a wait and see situation, as most trade request or extension conversations are, but its easily the biggest question Pirates fans, players, management and everyone involved wants an answer to before we turn the page to 2024.

Does Oneil Cruz Take the Next Step?

Oneil Cruz was a revelation last season, breaking StatCast records and proving he could be the Pirates next great player.

Heading into 2023, Cruz definitely has areas of improvement, ranging from his defensive ability at the shortstop position to limiting strikeouts and adjusting to MLB pitching for an entire season.

Cruz taking the next step entails a ton of things. If he improves his approach at the plate and plays at least average or just below average at the shortstop position, that’s a win. What does that look like? Well, improving his average, strikeout numbers and swing-and-miss rate would go a long way in doing that, all things he is capable of due to his physical ability alone.

Does he stick at shortstop long-term even if he has a good defensive season? That’s an entirely different conversation. The main focal point to Cruz’s continued development is completely centered around his bat, which again will get its first full MLB season in 2023.

There is no doubt Cruz will be a good MLB player due to multiple factors, but taking the next step would also allow the Pirates to move forward with a superstar player at their fingertips for quite some time.

When Do the Top Prospects Make an Impact?

Prospect debuts defined the entire 2022 season for the Pirates, but that sentiment will likely not have as much importance in 2023.

With the slew of veteran signings and positions filled already at the MLB level, top prospects such as Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Henry Davis and others will have ample opportunities to work on their game at the minor-league level because they won’t have to come up too early due to lineup ineptitude.

So with that said, when do these players ultimately come to PNC Park and make an impact? Well we know the Pirates love service time manipulation, so the easy answer is sometime after the deadline of service time counting as a full-season for debuting players, but pencil in the All-Star break and the trade deadline for when much anticipated debuts will be made.

Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez, Austin Hedges and Ji-Man Choi are likely not in the long-term plans for Ben Cherington and Co., so expect deadline trades from the Pirates unless they are on the fringe of wild-card contention, which is my ceiling for the team in 2023.

Those deadline trades of course would open up spots all over the place, including starting rotation spots, first base and behind the plate, so expect Rodriguez, Priester, Burrows, Bolton and other pitchers like Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo to fill those voids if deadline trades do happen.

This leaves the Pirates with multiple positives. For starters, they would get decent returns if the veterans perform well, which we’ve seen the past two seasons, while also allowing their top prospects to fix much needed downfalls and come to the MLB level with about another half-season of experience and fine tuning under their belt.

On the flip side, if the Pirates are contending for whatever reason and don’t move on from the veteran players, the top-prospect call-ups would not be asked to do much except sustain and already winning product, putting the Pirates in a pretty good spot heading into 2023 as far as prospects are concerned.

What Do You Do With All These Outfielders?

Anybody with a technological device with the ability to look up projected lineups, prospects lists or last year’s roster would be able to tell that the Pirates have an ample amount of outfielders available to them.

You look at who will likely start the season starting at the outfield positions, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen, and can be pretty happy about that already, but the depth the Pirates have in the outfield is lengthy.

The Pirates already have the starting trio along with Connor Joe, Miguel Andujar, Ji-hwan Bae, Tucapita Marcano, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty and Ryan Vilade on the 40-man roster. News flash, that’s a lot of outfielders.

That list also doesn’t include Endy Rodriguez, who has played in the outfield before, Connor Scott, Matt Fraizer, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales(both Peguero and Gonzales could move to the outfield), Matt Gorski and even further away prospects like Hudson Head, Lonnie White Jr. and Shalin Polanco.

Spring Training will likely weed out the players who under perform from that huge group because not all of them will pan out, but that amount of outfielders will also need reps to make an accurate assessment on who to keep and who to let go. We’ve seen that issue with Travis Swaggerty over the past season or so with his lack of MLB time and surely the Pirates will have to have a plan in place to make decisions about the outfield group.

What are the Expectations for the Pirates in 2023?

This is more of a fans and readers question but also a question the front office will have to answer at some point.

The Pirates have not been in the postseason since 2015 and haven’t had a winning record since 2019, so the rebuilding stages are starting to become tiring.

On paper, this isn’t a World Series or playoff contender, again my ceiling for them is final wild-card contention, but after back-to-back 100 loss seasons, what kind of expectations should this team have?

Obviously the win total has to go up, and no, not by one win like we saw last season. The benchmark has to be around 68-75 wins as far as realistic expectations for this team are concerned. They have enough talent to be competitive and with MLB changing the schedule format, you’ll see matchups against lowly American League teams the Pirates haven’t seen in a few years as well as the AL Central, a division much like the NL Central, that will likely be a two-horse race.

With the new schedule taken into account, the Pirates also see the NL Central less, which would’ve probably worked to their benefit, so we’ll see how the new schedule affects baseball as a whole.

But expectations being “high” for a 68-75 win season as well as saying that’s still not a good record can go hand-in-hand. If the Pirates won 75 games, would you be happy about that? I sure would be.

So setting expectations and meeting those expectations has to be of major importance to everyone in the organization. The rebuild is starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel, but how this team performs and answers important questions could decide just how long we wait until the Pirates are in a competitive window again.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Axiel Plaz

1-19-23 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Last week I did my best to breakdown exactly how hard it is for Major League Ball Clubs to find successful players and stars in the First Round of the MLB Draft; where they are choosing from an array of mostly 18 year-old high school players to 22 year college graduates.

Now imagine you are scouting 16 and 17 year-old kids, or even younger; just waiting until a certain date until you can sign them. Picture how difficult that has to be. It feels like trying to find a needle in a haystack; although, it’s possible that the level of difficulty has been slightly skewed by several international players working their way to the top of MLB’s Ranks.

For every Ronald Acuna, Jr., Rafael Devers or Shohei Ohtani there are hundreds of other players that never make it to the states; let alone to MLB.

The simple numbers game is often why it so hard to invest much energy, and excitement into young men that are inked during the International Signing Period; beyond the general joy for them and their families that is.

However, at times, there are certain prospects that cause you to forget all about the uncertainty that exists with prospects. Last season that young man was then 16 year-old Axiel Plaz.

Signed less than six months prior to his debut for $350,000 out of Venezuela, Plaz would put on a clinic with the bat; in spite of missing nearly a month with an injury. In a small sample size of 86 plate appearances, the young backstop slashed .382/.500/.706 with 3 homers, 15 total extra base hit and a 16K to 13BB ratio; all while throwing out 35% of the would be base stealers that challenged him.

Obviously performances in the DSL don’t always translate to success stateside. However, when contact skills were the main thing he needed to work, once again, it’s hard not to get excited.

So, what does 2023 hold for the Just Prospect Baseball Academy product?

Well, first of all I think we need to look at the work he has been putting in during the off-season.

Not only has Plaz continued to hone his approach at the plate, but he is also working on his defense by improving agility, completing countless drills and hitting gym; with the last activity also working toward adding more power at the plate, if that’s even possible.

For Plaz it is tough to be away from home, but the support of his family, friends and coaches, as well as his faith have helped him focus on the task at hand.

Now, it only remains to be decided if that distance will increase from the Dominican Republic to Pirate City in Bradenton for the Florida Complex League.

To the Pirates credit, they have reassigned Major League Interpreter/Translator, Mike Gonzalez to Pirate City/Bradenton to have him help assimilate younger players to pro-ball as a mental health skills coach. The skills he possesses will be invaluable for any prospect; but especially for any of the Spanish-speaking players in the organization.

Selfishly, I am hoping for the FCL so I can catch this young man on the backfields when I am down in Florida this summer.

A giant thank you to Axiel himself for not only being open to this post being published, but also for providing input on his off-season workouts and thanks to his friends, family and coaches for their suport.

Please follow him on his main social-Instagram-and show your support as well.

Top Pirates Camp Battles to Watch in 2023

1-19-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m going to start this piece by saying simply, there are far fewer than I anticipated. I planned on focusing on all the potential rookies and 2nd year players who’d be fighting it out over breaking camp and heading North.

That doesn’t mean Spring is unimportant or the Roster is completely set, but listen, if Malcom Nunez for instance hits 8 homeruns in camp, he’ll earn being the leader in the clubhouse for First Base or DH call up. So, it matters, but some places on the field, guys simply aren’t battling for making the roster now, they’ve signed enough veterans to ensure barring injury, they won’t be forcing many, if any at all, rookies into service.

This isn’t a bad thing, it’s just a reality of trying to field a better team. At some point you stop filling the 26 man with hope, and instead fill it with probable contributors.

That said, there are spots where the team has room for battles to answer the question, and the best way to look at this, is probably to start with the guys who WILL make this roster. Before we start discussing who’s going to battle, we need to understand how many spots we’re talking about right?

The Locks

Infielders: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana

Catchers: Austin Hedges

Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen

That’s 7 locks out of 13 spots for position players. Now, keep in mind the word lock doesn’t account for extremely likely, it simply speaks to guys who will absolutely be on this roster.

Pitching Staff: Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Vince Velasquez, David Bednar, Jarlin Garcia

Now that’s 7 locks out of 13 there too. Again, I stress, lock is much different than likely. The way I see it, we will enter Spring knowing 14 names that will ultimately fill out the 26-man roster. Now let’s move on to the likely guys.

Likely to Make it

Outfielders: Jack Suwinski – He’s just short of a lock, about as close as you can come, but he has some poison pills in his game, and enough veterans competing for a spot that if Spring is a complete disaster you could see the team going in another direction.

Infielders: Rodolfo Castro – Much like Jack, he showed enough to assume the team will want to give him a real shot in 2023 to cement his role, but he isn’t without competition for playing time, and the additions in the outfield might just force him into a direct battle with Ji-hwan Bae for second base. Have to give the edge to the guy who is down to his last option and has 102 MLB games under his belt.

Pitching Staff: Chase De Jong, Duane Underwood Jr., Robert Stephenson – Three pitchers, all with no options, all likely to have at least a weighted decision on whether they make the roster or not. In other words, they aren’t likely to want to lose these guys for nothing without at least getting some precious innings out of them before moving on to the younger guys. In other words, deciding these guys don’t make it is a final decision.

Colin Holderman – Recent interviews with Oscar Marin by Alex Stumpf and Jason Mackey have led me to believe Colin is very much so in the plans. He has 3 options so I don’t want to make him a lock, but he’s as close as you can get.

I’ll add one more here, Wil Crowe, he’s got one option and before his arm turned to churned butter at the end of the season and he was forced into a role he didn’t fit, he was legitimately good.

That adds 7 more folks, putting our running total at 21.

We’ve got 5 spots left and we’ll now talk about all the guys who will fight for them and talk to their challenges and advantages.

Fighting for a Shot

Catcher (1) Spot Available: Tyler Heineman, Jason Delay, the first thing I’d say is, I could easily see the Pirates waiting until the end of Spring, and grabbing a catcher who gets cast off another team’s 40-man roster. The coach was very up front that Endy Rodriguez wasn’t going to break camp, right or wrong, we needn’t waste time on that argument, he isn’t going to be given the shot. Point is, these two will likely fill the backup role if they don’t act.

Outfield/Utility/Infield (2) Spots Available: We already talked about the locks, Reynolds and Cutch, we talked about the very likely, Jack, I think they’ll carry 5 here so that leaves 2. This will be one of the most interesting battles in camp and you’ll start to find some of these guys will be competing for multiple spots. For obvious reasons, competing for multiple spots ups your chances of making the team. They have to have someone who can play SS/2B/3B in particular, and that may ultimately get in the way for some of the left handed dedicated outfielders.

Miguel Andujar – At best, Andujar is a shot at reclaiming a wasted talent, he’s also a picture frame of a very active offseason. At the end of 2022, most saw him as a lock to DH this year, now he’s fighting for a chance to make the team. Miguel has no options which gives him an advantage, but he’s fighting for a spot in the outfield which isn’t his best position (if he has one). He also has something most of his competition doesn’t, a successful MLB season. I think the Pirates have to keep one more right handed stick in addition to Andrew McCutchen for the outfield, so yeah, Andujar has a shot.

Connor Joe – Another right handed outfielder and he’s put together two decent stretches with the Rockies in the past two seasons. I have no doubt he’s a better fielder than Andujar but one of his biggest advantages to make the roster was probably his ability to play first base too. The acquisition of Ji-Man Choi and signing of Carlos Santana kinda render that skill moot. Carrying 2 options in his back pocket, Joe will really have to impress to either force the team to take 3 right handed outfielders North or beat Andujar so soundly the Pirates are willing to lose Miguel.

Ji-hwan Bae – Make no mistake, Bae is capable of playing infield or outfield. I see him as more of a second baseman, but he could probably handle SS in a pinch. His versatility will help, and his uniqueness at the plate gives him an edge too. The Pirates will have to walk a balance here, Bae could easily be one of the best 26 but if the club feels they can’t keep him active enough he may have to go to AAA where he can play. Again, his ability to play multiple positions might help him, a properly deployed utility man can wind up getting starting level at bats.

Tucupita Marcano – Hey I could easily say Marcano and Bae are directly in competition. They both largely do the same things, and while I personally think Bae is superior, even I have to admit, neither have enough of a track record for me to definitively decide. Tucupita has one big, albeit perceived, advantage, Ben Cherington wanted him from the Padres so badly in the Joe Musgrove deal he circled back and made sure he got him in the Adam Frazier deal. He got him, but I don’t think anyone knows how to use him or where.

Jared Triolo – A pure rookie if he makes it, Jared has never played in AAA. We’ve seen that not matter to this club in the past and I can honestly say out of everyone who could play SS behind Cruz, Triolo would be the best out the gate. He’s also a really talented outfielder and third baseman. Arguably the best defender in the system. Boy it’d be tough now for him to make the club, but I’d be tempted if he hit.

Cal Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Nigba – Cal got the longest shot last year, Canaan was hurt almost all of 2022, and Travis Swaggerty will either be added to the list of first round picks cast off by this GM or finally win a spot on this roster. I lump them all together because they’re all left handed, they all can really only play outfield. Clearly all are behind Jack Suwinski but I think the team is going to want to have a left handed and right handed option off the bench. This is a battle within a battle. The Pirates could easily decide keeping two utility guys who can play outfield and infield as opposed to a dedicated outfielder here.

That’s 7 names, for 2 spots and while I could add in some other names, I don’t think it would be productive, I firmly believe this list is where these guys will come from.

Pitching Staff (2) – There are going to be a ton of guys fighting for these 2 spots. Now, I think the starting rotation is pretty set, so I’m leaning heavily to this really being a bullpen battle but the team could easily go with a 6-man rotation which frankly would be silly in April since you rarely even need 5, but piggybacking could make a return appearance too.

Jose Hernandez – Rule 5 selection and left handed. That’s two things that give him an extreme advantage here. Jarlin Garcia is the only lefty in the pen if Hernandez doesn’t make it and of course he’s no longer a Pirate most likely if he is cut. I think he’s interesting enough that the Bucs might overlook some warts to give him a shot. To me, this was almost in the likely category.

Yerry De Los Santos – He was impressive last season filling a role in the back end of the bullpen, but he’s young, has options and didn’t do anything that would make the Pirates look insane for starting him in AAA.

Dauri Moreta, Yohan Ramirez – Dauri was just acquired from the Reds for Kevin Newman, and has 2 options remaining, Yohan was a waiver claim in 2022 and really impressed some of the brass with his work down the stretch. Both of these guys have a real shot to make this club but neither are someone I feel overly excited about. Depth is a good thing.

Johan Oviedo – The Pirates very much so see him as a starter, and they want to continue to operate under that assumption. He was the key to the Jose Quintana deal and the Bucs won’t want to waste him by prematurely deciding he’s a bullpen arm. That said, he could be a perfect fit for a potential piggy back role, or even could force Vince Velasquez into the pen. Keep an eye open here, Oviedo has a very good shot to make this team one way or another.

Colin Selby – I’ve been asked a couple times, do any rookies have a real shot to make it out of camp? If one does, in my eyes it’s Colin. This is a flame thrower, and he could impress too much to ignore. Don’t get me wrong, he has hurdles to jump, and he’d have to be damn impressive, but I don’t think it’s insane to believe he could make it happen.

Conclusion

Feels to me like there are some battles there, but instead of head to heads it’s more about picking from groups to fill some spots on the edges of the roster. That’s what happens when you fill a bunch of holes with veterans. It’s also why you do so on a 1 year basis, because you expect, and want some of these guys competing to make the decisions easy come deadline time.

So I suppose I owe you my 26-man as we sit here. Let’s go…

Catcher – Austin Hedges
Infield – Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Rodolfo Castro, Carlos Santana
Outfield – Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski
Bench – Tyler Heineman, Ji-hwan Bae, Miguel Andujar, Ji-Man Choi, Tucupita Marcano

Starting Rotation – Rich Hill, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Roansy Contreras, Vince Velasquez

Bullpen – David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Jarlin Garcia, Jose Hernandez, Wil Crowe, Robert Stephenson, Duane Underwood Jr., Chase De Jong

Now, the bench construction is more about who they face. For instance, I think Cutch probably plays DH more often than outfield, hence keeping a couple utility guys, and because this team doesn’t tend to use DH as a stand alone spot, I keep it rotating a bit. In other words, don’t get hung up on who I have as bench/starter.

I do think Santana will play in the field more than Choi though, their histories tell me that.

All in all, a different kind of Spring and it could lead to something like this…

  1. Ji-hwan Bae – CF
  2. Bryan Reynolds – LF
  3. Oneil Cruz – SS
  4. Carlos Santana – 1B
  5. Andrew McCutchen – DH
  6. Jack Suwinski – RF
  7. Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
  8. Austin Hedges – C
  9. Rodolfo Castro – 2B

I can’t sit here and tell you Shelton is going to agree, even if he did, I can’t tell you he’s done with his near constant changes to the lineup, but hey, have some fun with it, a lineup is kinda the fun culmination of all this jazz.

Listen to this week’s Pirates Fan Forum, we’ll be discussing a lot of these position battles.