Pirates Add Rich Hill with One Year Deal Worth 8 Million

12-28-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well folks, the Pirates needed a lefty, and they got one, for 8 Million bucks.

They also needed someone who could step right in and be a definitive part of the rotation as opposed to someone looking to resurrect their career. Rich will be 43 by March, he’s all done learning new tricks.

I mean, when you’ve played 18 MLB seasons from the West Coast to the East Coast, you aren’t going to hide what you are.

Rich Hill is the very definition of Soft Tossing Lefty, and as many will joke freely, those guys can pitch forever. Obviously that’s not true, but it’s not entirely fiction either.

The Pirates rotation isn’t set, but Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, JT Brubaker, and Vince Velasquez is a much better than last year way to start.

So let’s start with what most of you are thinking….

Why Would They Sign a 42 Year Old?

Simply put, he was the best left handed starter available who was willing to sign a one year deal. And he’s been more of a plus than the couple you could name like Wade Miley or Danny Duffy. Mike Minor was a complete disaster last year.

So if the Pirates were looking for someone who could legitimately fill a role, and help this club, might as well be someone who’s accustomed to the exact role the Pirates want filled. Seasoned starter who more often than not hands the ball off to the bullpen after at least 5 innings, with a repertoire not likely to evaporate.

He’s not reliant on a fastball, in fact his average exit velocity is higher than his average fastball.

Point is, his age hardly matters, the Pirates really only need whatever he gives them this year.

How Does This Make Them Better?

First, it might not.

But here’s the theory. The Pirates by adding this player are giving time for Ortiz, Oviedo, Burrows, Bolton, and Priester, to marinate a bit all while surrounding everyone else with a proven major leaguer to learn from. In fact, all Spring long those five will have him to learn from.

That’s the theory. Truth is, no matter why you believe the Pirates feel they need to show real improvement in 2023, they absolutely do believe it themselves.

Public pressure, trying to prove it to younger players they want to extend, laying a base for next year so agents see them as serious, who knows. Maybe even just where they saw themselves.

Regardless, they’ve done everything this offseason they said they would. Wanted to fix first base for 2023, done. Wanted to add a couple starting pitchers, well mostly done. Wanted to add bullpen arms, again, done. Needed to add some OF right handed depth, did.

Said they’d spend more this year, have.

The only people surprised by all this are the multitudes who don’t believe anything they say.

All that said, Rich Hill gives them a real chance to be better in 2023, even if he won’t be the best pitcher they have, he’ll still be a better bet than a rookie to start the season.

Look, you want the record to matter? This says it does to them. Even if they’re wrong.

Why No Long Term Free Agent Deals?

Bluntly, name a position on the field or on the mound and I’ll reel off a list of prospects due to debut in 2023 or 2024.

This really comes down to not wanting to make any long term decisions yet on players outside the roster. Essentially, they don’t as we sit here see permanent holes. Well, except left handed pitching and that’s where they did get Garcia for 2 years.

I could argue left handed starter should have been immune to this line of thinking, but the board didn’t really agree. Everyone who was available had some kind of wart. Exception in my mind being Jose Quintana, and even he couldn’t have been for more than a couple years due to his age.

Next year, they’ll have the same issue, and next year the hope is by showing they’ll pay 8 million for a veteran starter, a full 2 million over his expected contract offers this year, they can show they shouldn’t be out of sight and out of mind to the agents.

Now, What Can We Really Expect from Hill?

He’s got a relatively spotty history really. Far more seasons in which he spent most of his time on the IL than those in which he put up a big innings count.

I’d put him right around 130 innings if everything goes well. That’s not a full season, and since most of you assume he’ll be traded at the deadline, this should really make sense. In fact, Rich is very used to this himself. He’s been traded at the deadline 3 times already and with the youth the Pirates have on the cusp, they should be ready from both a competition standpoint and expectations on what Hill could provide to pull the trigger.

It’s safe to say a sub 4.00 ERA is doable for Hill, and he’ll use his new home ballpark to his advantage. Unless he faces J-Hay that is.

His strikeouts per 9 have steadily dropped since his peak in 2014 but his career average is still over 9.

There might not be a prettier pitch in baseball than Rich Hill’s curveball.

He probably isn’t a great comp because Adam Wainwright will eat innings like few can, but Rich Hill is the left handed version of that. You’ll look up and see it’s the 6th and wonder how he got there by throwing all this junk, but after a while you’ll just quit trying to figure it out and enjoy.

Closing

There isn’t much to hate here. You can of course say he’s 43, if he gets hurt the Pirates just threw away 8 million dollars, but folks, you can’t have it both ways. If you want them to spend, they’re going to have to take risks. That’s what this is, a calculated risk, and one they can surely afford.

His signing won’t prevent them from anyone you want extended being offered. It won’t hold anyone back for long should they excel, and it gives them a real backbone veteran, in this case one old enough to be some of their younger player’s father.

This isn’t the deal I’d have targeted early on in free agency, but it is what I said they needed if they were going to get one more. They had to make sure it was a clear drop in to at least the middle of the rotation, and even if he doesn’t have staying power, Hill is every bit that.

There are some among you that would prefer they just play all kids regardless of whether they’re ready or not, but again, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t ask for and expect improvement, yet complain when they look for and sign contingency plans and upgrades to one year deals.

The roster is much more complete as we head to Spring Training this year, and that’s a good thing.

And for this year, quit worrying about Bryan Reynolds, I assure you the team is already past it. They have his rights, he has a signed contract, and he’s a big part of what they feel will take them from 100 loss team to visible improvement and a better record in 2023. I know you’re seeing a bunch of rumors, and you certainly don’t have to believe me, but there is just zero interest from the Pirates. This matter is settled for now in their minds in fact they probably aren’t done making offers.

I’m also hearing, and please don’t get your hopes up, there is real interest to bring Andrew McCutchen back for a season or two. I can’t speak for Cutch, and won’t, but internally the Pirates are at least considering it and have had some conversations with his agent.

If this happens, don’t let what Andrew has become taint what you remember him being. He’s simply not the same player. I still like the fit, but just don’t expect him to be the MVP you remember. IF this happens, again this is the very definition of reporting whispers.

Pirates Prospect Talk With Anthony Murphy

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-iszcy-1349876

Craig sits down with Anthony Murphy from Pirates Prospects to talk about everything involving the Pirates Farm System; including The Arizona Fall League, The Rule 5 Draft, The Upcoming International Signing Period and some players to keep an eye on in 2023. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

12-26-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I hope this piece finds you basking in the afterglow of a wonderful holiday with your friends and family. The Pirates were relatively quiet over the break, which for those who assumed a big Christmas Eve deal in the style of a classic news dump is a great thing.

Let’s dig in.

1. What About Travis?

Travis Swaggerty entered the 2022 season almost universally seen as the top outfield prospect, but a nagging injury prevented him from getting the opportunity many expected. That said, if he wasn’t a number one pick, his numbers show a player nobody is even thinking about.

There just isn’t much there offensively that inspires you to consider him. No big homerun totals, no screaming high batting average. OPS is just ok for AAA. Defensively he’s legitimately very good, but on a team that desperately needs offense, I’m not sure that’s ever going to be enough. That said, Harrison Bader has a job.

Thing is, as unfair as most seem to think his path has been, it seems after 1,259 minor league plate appearances it’s pretty much decision time. To me, if Travis wants to continue on the 40-man, he’ll have to beat Canaan Smith-Njigba, and Cal Mitchell out for a spot.

Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Ji-hwan Bae, and likely one of Connor Joe or Miguel Andujar to me constitute the makeup of the outfield situation with room for another bench or alternate. This is where I think Swaggerty can slip in, and why I specifically say he’d have to beat out CSN and Mitchell.

It’s a strange situation, but not every top pick makes it. On a team like this, one that desperately needs help from young talent, man you start to feel wiggly about his future when he can’t crack this lineup.

If it’s because he’s left handed as I’ve heard many suggest, well, that didn’t stop Cal Mitchell or Bligh Madris. All I know is, the opportunity was there, he didn’t take it.

This Spring he’ll get another shot, and if he doesn’t earn a chance, you have to feel he’s going to be really easy to put on the pay no mind list, if not lose his spot altogether.

Baseball isn’t always fair, but in Travis’ case, even with injuries and COVID, over 1,200 at bats is a decent amount of opportunity.

And no, before you automatically go there, I don’t blame the development system, I blame the team involved in the draft. And specifically the draft team that was in place previously. We may eventually find out this new unit is just as bad, but I can’t assign the failures of the past regime to this one.

2. The First Base Plan

First, I’m not sure there is one beyond hope.

Carlos Santana and Ji-man Choi will hold down first base this year, but after that is the question. Will 2024 see Malcom Nunez, or Mason Martin get a chance to take the job? Or will we be on a full scale search to see which player gets moved there from another spot? Maybe we’ll be back to shopping for free agents instead.

While we’re watching things play out at the Major League level this will all be playing out in the background. Every aspect will be interesting. Will Malcom and Mason split time there? Will they platoon?

Martin for instance has already proven he can play the position, Nunez hasn’t. Perhaps we’ll see Martin get more DH opportunities in an effort to see what Nunez can do in the field.

I really don’t know where they go from here honestly. Too many variables to make decisions now, but one way or another, they’ve bought themselves a one year window to let this play out.

Perhaps the easiest thing to do would be to move one of their highly touted catching prospects over there, but that might not be fair to do something like that without seeing what the players themselves show us. For instance, if you plan on Endy Rodriguez or Henry Davis going over there, then Nunez works out, well then what?

I’m completely intrigued by how this could play out, and I think they have enough internal options that by Spring of 2024 we’ll see this position internally filled. Maybe with a free agent insurance policy along side.

3. Short Stop is Interesting

Oneil Cruz himself is interesting, I could probably focus on him and make this easy to write, but since we all know he’s going to get 2023 to show he can handle the position, I’d rather focus on who backs him up.

I’ll be really honest, needing someone to play this position capably if something happened to Cruz is why I didn’t think the Pirates needed to move Kevin Newman. I’m fine that they did, but now the question comes up, who plays there in the short term when you want to get a rest for Oneil, and who plays there a lot if god forbid Cruz is injured.

The candidates are Ji-hwan Bae, I don’t personally like the range there, to me he’s more of a second baseman or center fielder. Rodolfo Castro, he got a stretch there last year and quite honestly struggled. Starting or turning double plays didn’t seem natural to him, and his positioning wasn’t sound enough to function with Ke’Bryan Hayes who has the leagues very fastest glove to throw time in the league. You have to know where you need to be, and it has to be second nature, or Hayes is going to be rendered mere mortal, and a SS certainly can’t make your other fielders less than they are.

The best option defensively anyway might be Jared Triolo. I have little doubt he can handle the spot, but he has zero AAA at bats. Defensively, this kid is ready, with the stick, man it’s a big jump still from AA to MLB. Now, the Pirates have already shown they aren’t afraid to do it, Diego Castillo who was just traded after being DFAd was one, and so was Jack Suwinski.

In this case, maybe the glove is more important. This is a guy who could give a break to Hayes, Cruz, Castro and potentially even play center field or first base. This team could really benefit from that sort of thing.

I don’t believe they are in a position where bringing in another option is necessary. But a long term injury to Cruz could easily change that mindset.

4. So, They’d Like Another Pitcher and Position Player?

OK.

I saw some people bristle at this, specifically the “like” part. I mean just do it if you want to right?

Here’s my thing, I don’t think bringing in another starter is worthwhile unless it’s someone who is very clearly a top 3 on this staff. They have plenty who are capable of being a number 4 or 5. This team would be better off getting opportunity for guys like Luis Ortiz, Johan Oviedo, Cody Bolton, Mike Burrows, and Quinn Priester.

Bluntly, if we get to August and haven’t seen some of that list, the Pirates have done themselves a disservice.

I expect the team to improve record wise in 2023, but lets face it, even a wild card would be a reach. 2024, that’s another story. This team should absolutely step up and have a shot at the playoffs in that year. To do that, the Pirates are going to have to get contribution from at least a couple of these kids. I’d rather watch them get their sea legs under them this year than next.

So, I’m not really sure what they’re looking for here. If it’s another Vince Velasquez, I’m sorry, I don’t see the logic.

I understand wanting to infuse veteran help into the roster, but borderline veteran help isn’t going to do more than hold back guys that need to be part of next year.

Don’t get me wrong, if they find a way to bring in a pitcher who can help carry the staff, ok, nobody will complain, but if it’s another guy who’s struggled and is looking for a shot, they’d be hard pressed to convince me that’s better than say Johan Oviedo.

5. What About all These No Names They’re signing?

Jonawel Valdez, Edwarli Brioso, Shawn Ross, I could go on. These are minor league signings, and some of them will be given Non Roster Invites (NRI’s) to Spring Training.

This stuff happens every year, to every team, and the Pirates are no different. I don’t say this to crap on these guys, I just say it because this isn’t the “dumpster diving” you tend to hear about.

This is typically a guy like Phillip Evans who has no business making a team out of Spring. It’s a guy like Bligh Madris, who was DFAd from the Pirates, picked up by the Rays, plopped in AA, unlocked some power. Brought in by Detroit and before playing an inning was again DFAd.

He’ll get a contract just like this, and to other fan bases, he’s just as obscure as Valdez up there. You know, Hodgepodge of nothingness and all.

Sometimes these players wind up working out. Chase De Jong is an example of that. And even if he doesn’t throw another pitch as a Pirate what he’s already done is best case scenario for these types of things.

They help prevent premature promotions to AAA in some cases. They help fill out a full Spring Schedule, something we haven’t seen since 2019. This year the plan is for full schedule complete with split squad affairs and that requires more players, not always players you plan to truly give a shot to.

Many of these guys aren’t even reported. You’d have to be a nut (looks in mirror) to go through the transaction page on the Pirates website to see them and they never take up a precious 40-man spot.

Point is, this isn’t the same as disliking the Velazquez signing. This is a lot more about function than it is hoping and praying one of these contribute.

I will say, in a year like this, where the bill has come due for a ton of prospects who aged out while COVID wreaked havoc on everyone’s development system, there could be some sneaky talent discovered, but as the team fleshes itself out more and more, the opportunity just isn’t there for these types to actually make the team.

Many will quite literally put a few innings on tape and head out looking for their next shot somewhere else.

Something Chase De Jong himself did with the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mariners, Twins, Astros and finally the Pirates. I can’t begin to tell you how improbable making a team is after all that, let alone putting together an MLB season at 28 years old where you throw in 42 games with a 2.64 ERA.

I know it sounds like I’m trying to give you a reason to care about these signings, but instead, I’m trying to illustrate the utter difficulty a player forced into this path goes through to earn a paycheck, and ultimately a place to call home. Chase will forever look over his shoulder, and maybe he gets caught as early as this year.

That’s life on the fringes of MLB.

Should You Boycott the Pirates?

12-22-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I see a whole lot of upset. Tons of same old Pirates. Calls for boycotts, pressure campaigns, demonstrations. Walk outs, no shows, heck I even saw someone suggest people get in Nutting’s face every time he’s in public, you know, cause it works so well in society at solving problems.

Chances are, most of the people espousing this already are.

What’s funny to me is, this team is right on the cusp of showing improvement. Young players will improve, others won’t, new, and more highly touted prospects will replace them.

You can argue it if you want, that’s fine. But most honest people can see that even while spending nothing more than what it takes to retain arbitration guys and a few reasonable contracts with primarily internally developed talent, they’ll get better.

That to me has never been a question. The system is in good shape, there are enough on the way to account for plenty to not make it and still come up with something.

The question to me has always been will Bob Nutting do what is necessary when the time comes to kick them over the edge, or keep the core together for a couple extra years. I think I knew the answer, still do, but the team getting to a point where they’re playing good baseball and winning a lot more games, I still like where they are.

I said in 2020 they should be ready for .500 by 2023, and I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility.

Next year, I expect them to truly push for a playoff spot.

Now, these have been my expectations, not everyone’s. Some people never liked this plan, others completely disagree with the need to even attempt a rebuild.

Some people believe the Pirates could simply choose to spend as much as they want. People truly do believe this. I simply don’t have the energy to try to convince anyone differently.

For tonight, I simply want to talk about what is, not what should be. I want to talk about what we know is happening regardless of the owner.

This is a full on system and team reboot. It was going to be painful.

The fans who are most upset, are the ones that can’t see the logic in playing guys with no real chance at becoming a fixture here after trading good players away. Let’s start here.

If you decide you have to reload the system, you have to get top end talent from somewhere. You have the draft, you have assets you can trade, and once you decide to head in this direction, you often also have time.

If I’m trading a 5th year All Star for two 19 year olds who might pan out, it’s going to be at least 2 or 3 years later. Now if a team trades all those guys for young prospects, they could immediately go get vets and fill the roster, try to give the fans some fun, probably not be very good, but you aren’t losing 100 games either. Some fans would prefer this, I mean, I probably would like it more too, but it’s certainly not the path this GM chose.

Make no mistake, he chose instead to empty the roster, acquire as much talent as he could and fill the roster with literal hopes and prayers. This very much so, as evidenced by what you’ve watched, does lead to 100 loss seasons.

It also leads to 4 strait top of the board draft picks.

Can you do this with slightly higher picks, and a better record? Sure you can. Lots of teams do that. The Rockies follow that method. They keep some stars, they make a splash in free agency on occasion, they even get close to competing every once in a while. Never too awful low, never too awful high, but almost always an entertaining team with guys you recognize as Rockies.

The Cubs have done both. Currently they’re in a rebuild and instead of just stinking, they went right after picking and choosing some holes to fill. Probably not enough to get anywhere quickly, but if a few of their nice prospects hit, they can just pile on and already have a nice core they built in place.

When they won it all, they completely blew it up, stunk out loud, then brought up a crop of youngsters to let them learn, excel and grow together. That’s the team they just broke up.

The Pirates don’t have the money the Cubs do, but they are still capable of doing either method.

Fact is, this GM doesn’t want to. You can say it’s Bob’s budget, and to be fair, it’s more that Ben wanted to build a system from the ground up, and do this his way, so they’re probably a perfect match.

His way, well, it calls for what the Cubs did. Right down to trading for starting pitching that hadn’t caught on like Jake Arrieta, along with Pedro Strope for Steve Clevinger and Scott Feldman. They hit on both. Arrieta was a total long shot, and he became Cy Young level in Chicago.

Of course after that the Cubbies spent and got it where it needed to go.

Point is, Arrieta and guys like him are exactly why a GM takes a swing on reclamation projects and Waiver claims while their young talent is just gelling or coming close to making the league.

So what if Cherington is right? What if he pulls this off and builds enough talent to add on with his constraints to win? Or what if he manages to make a go of pulling off a Tampa like system where the roster has turnover every year and the system provides whatever the team is going to be the next year regardless of outcome.

Thing is, I personally don’t think you can ultimately get there without spending. Spending just through attrition by 2026 or so, should be up around 130 or so. That’s just arb projection. It’s probably like 150 if a few of these guys turn into stars. Even they can do that and will.

I suspect if they win nobody will care how they got there. I also think few will remember the actual payroll number if they win.

Back to the beginning, you want to boycott now?

Ok, do you, but it’s kinda funny to me to start that stuff right when the arrow starts pointing up a bit.

That said, yinz have been telling me for years there would be nobody there to watch it so I guess we’ll find out won’t we?

This franchise has given fans more than enough reason to not believe anything will ever work. I’m just saying, have you ever considered it just might?

Because if we’re completely truthful with ourselves, we’re really just angry they didn’t do it the way we wanted, or thought we deserved. Maybe we do deserve better every year, maybe that’s what this GM believes he’ll be providing after we fight through these painful seasons.

That’s a lot to ask of fans, in any market really. Look how hard it is for the Red Sox to admit they really should just start over. They’re holding on to a guy here, and a guy there, nobody who’s a bonafide team carrier. Just listless, and not competing in a division they used to spend to stay in.

There are about a billion ways to go about this process. We just don’t like the one this GM chose. And he thinks in this market, it’s the best possible way to get to and maintain a competitive team.

Who’s right?

History says whoever says spending is neat.

When your options are limited though, you have to take everything into account. Can we ever spend like the top third of the league? No, and even if you think Bob is taking home half a billion a year (he isn’t) you know they can’t. If you can’t, you better develop some of the super star talent yourself.

Don’t go if you like. Don’t watch either. No bobble heads. No summer nights sitting at the Fat Head’s bar. That’s all your choice, and yours alone.

Picket and demonstrate, get the mayor in the parking lot with a bullhorn. Whatever. Nobody will miss Bob if you’re successful, and the team won’t move regardless, MLB won’t allow it. Do your worst.

Meanwhile, I think I’m probably going to be watching a team that looks like it’s turning a corner. Not perfect, but much improved. It’ll be fun, and what I’ve waited 3 long years for. I’m not into missing it after all that, personally, again, you do you.

I’ll let you know when I pass you on the picket line.

Happy Cancelling everyone!

Through The Prospect Porthole: Capitalizing On Farm System Depth

12-22-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

A little over two weeks ago, the Pirates had eleven players poached from their Farm System during the Minor League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Ultimately, these losses will more than likely be proven to be inconsequential, as history has shown that the odds of picking an impact player in this fashion is nearly equal to winning the lottery.

Still, it’s hard to imagine that any team likes to have prospects removed from their organization for next to nothing. I mean the Pirates will receive between $12,000 and $24,000 for each player selected, along with the $100,000 for Blake Sabol, (Insert Bob Nutting Hoarding All His Pennies Joke Here); however, this is hardly maximizing the return on investment.

Plus, Pittsburgh shelled out approximately $148,000 of their own; so, how much money could they have realistically made on the day?

It’s pretty much near a wash when we are talking about million, and even billion dollar businesses.

So, why are we even talking about this?

Well, it seems that the main reason is to question why Ben Cherington and Company would only protect 31 players from the Minor League Portion, when they had the opportunity to add 38 players to the Triple-A Reserve List.

First of all, you would have to imagine Blake Sabol took up one of these roster spots. Secondly, the Pirates just lost two players-Miguel Yajure and Ali Sanchez-on waivers, who would need a place to land if they weren’t claimed. And finally, it’s hard to predict if and when guys will start to sign MiLB deals throughout the entire process; each of which would require protection as well.

The next reason-and probably the most likely explanation-would be trying to prove incompetence on the part of the Pirates Front Office. In other words, isn’t Cherington trying to build up a Farm System based on depth, rather than one that can be torn down?

Obviously, this is a little bit over dramatic; although, there could potentially be some truth left, when you wash away the bleak outlook that is often painted by the most downtrodden fans.

Just this past season we watched Luis Ortiz make his way from Altoona, and through Indianapolis, on his way to Pittsburgh; after having closed out the 2021, as part of the Low-A Bradenton Marauders starting rotation. During his time in the Florida State League, Ortiz posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP, with 113 strike outs, across 87.1 innings at 22 years of age.

Now, with a couple selections by the A’s-with the #1 Overall Pick-and the Marlin’s a couple of rounds later, the Pirates lost a starter who had performed pretty well at LECOM this past season and a reliever that found his way north to Greensboro without much of a drop-off. You see, the Minor League Portion is different from the MLB side of things in that there is no requirement for how long a guy has to stay on an active roster or anything. Once they’re gone, they’re gone.

So, 21 year-old Joelvis Del Rosario and his 3.68 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 19 starts, along with 22 year-old Cristian Charle’s 2.52 ERA and 1.099 WHIP across relief appearances in Bradenton and Greensboro, are out the door for the Pirates; at a price tag of around $24,000.

No doubt this limited success doesn’t guarantee an Ortiz-like rise through the system, but it can’t be ruled out; and; at the very least, couldn’t they at least sell another team on the promise?

The same would go for getting some sort of return for Sabol-which the Reds did -as the rumors swirled around him at the Arizona Fall League. If you weren’t going to protect Sabol, why not try to get something for him?

Yes, I realize it’s easier said than done; yet, you have to think there was more smoke from other front offices around the league concerning the Pirates Farm System.

Sometimes it feels like Cherington thinks he is smarter than everyone else in the room; which isn’t the same thing as saying that he is dumb. Maybe, he’s just a little bit overconfident; in a rebuild that is leaving very little room for error, if he wants it to be successful.

Moving forward, Cherington and Company simply need to do better.

Pirates DFA Castillo, Making Room for Austin Hedges

12-21-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Before we get into this, don’t mistake my lack of emotion for the move as hate for the player or the guy. I simply see moves like this differently than many of you seem to.

I don’t look at an individual DFA and then immediately rush to the 40-man and start picking players I think are worse than him who could have gone first, I look at a series of things about the construction of the 40-man that make this player in particular expendable.

Further, I usually have a top 5-ish list in my head at all times of who could be in trouble and sometimes a move to bring in someone in a specific area can change it.

So, that being said, and knowing I’ll circle back to it, let’s move on. Diego Castillo was DFAd to make room for Austin Hedges.

We knew the Pirates were going to have to sign a catcher, and we know they’ll have to DFA someone else whenever they finally decide to make the Jarlin Garcia signing official. So, there’s another coming.

If you look at Hedges and your head goes to “is he better than Diego?” you aren’t looking at this stuff in a way that makes sense to me.

The real questions you have to ask and form your own top 5-ish list are as follows, and you certainly don’t have to land on the same answers as me, I’m just going to lay out how I walk through these things.

Question 1: What positions are bloated? Meaning, when you look at the 40-man roster where do you see them having too much depth? For instance, 2 is the bare minimum for number of catchers a team has to have on their 40-man, right now the Pirates have 2 and they’ll add a third (even if it’s Heineman) before Spring is out. Middle infield has a ton, and even a couple who aren’t on it but certainly would be if Rule 5 Eligible.

Question 2: Which Players Don’t Have a True Position? Diego is a great example here. He can play a bunch of places, but you won’t find a spot where he’s your first choice, in fact I bet you wouldn’t find one where he’s your second. Doesn’t mean he is worthless, just means he’s automatically a bench guy on this roster at best.

Question 3: Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze? What I mean here is if this player reaches their perceived ceiling, does it put them in the mix? In other words, even if they right this second are better than a younger player, can you reasonably expect them to hold off the younger player even if everything goes right?

Then there are simple facts you have no choice but to take into account.

Fact 1: Each position has a minimum number you have to carry. Not by MLB rule, but by simple ability to get through a season.

Fact 2: There is nothing bigger in this process than Options. Don’t have options and decisions get forced.

Fact 3: This is team dependent, but a player making above MLB minimum on a team like this probably gets a weighted decision making process.

Fact 4: Teams don’t always want to lose someone they DFA, all of the above factors simply force their hand. The better your system, the more often this comes up.

Fact 5: Pitching is king. Fringe pitchers are simply worth more than fringe position players.

All of that stuff comes before I even touch player evaluation.

Now that Diego has been DFAd, my 5-ish list gets updated. I’ll give you my list now and explain each one backed by the criteria I just listed.

  1. Bryse Wilson – Bryse has no options left, he’s 25 so he’s younger than most people who have 2 full seasons of MLB service time. He’s very unlikely to make the rotation, his stuff doesn’t really play in the pen. On the 40-man the Pirates have 21 dedicated to pitchers, and that’s without Jarlin Garcia.
  2. Ryan Vilade – The addition of Connor Joe made the likelihood that Vilade gets a legitimate shot at winning a roster spot pretty low. If you saw my suggested active roster on opening day, Joe himself didn’t even make it. 9 outfielders is a lot to carry on a 40-man, and that’s why Ryan won’t be the last on my list.
  3. Tucupita Marcano – Marcano is still super young, and we all know Cherington really wanted him, but you can’t argue where he falls on the list of 9 outfielders. In fact, just take him to the list of left handed hitting outfielders and he’s at least 4th. He may very well wind up being a very good MLB player, but that’s a lot to jump over.
  4. Cal Mitchell – He isn’t a top notch defender but he hasn’t gotten a ton of opportunity yet to prove what he can do with the stick. I could go either way on him as I almost always could by the time I get down to 4 or 5 on my lists.
  5. Yohan Ramirez – He’s got one option left and finds himself deep on the depth chart. The Pirates may want to get innings out of him before cutting ties. They’ve worked hard to add a stable of pitchers with the ability to go up and down but they still have a few zero option guys slated to be in the majors that they’ll likely want to run through first.

Now onto Diego himself.

He was worth taking a shot on. A short stop, second baseman and right fielder, but not top notch at any of them. The Pirates gave him 262 ABs and he did hit 11 homeruns, but everything added up to a -0.9 WAR. His direct competition is the right handed sticks in the outfield like Connor Joe, Miguel Andujar and Ryan Vilade. Defensively, he’s not beating any of those players. Offensively, the first two are already better bets. Short stop, no chance. Second base, he’d have to beat out Castro, Marcano, Bae minimally, and I don’t see it.

Point is, he got squeezed out. I can make an argument he’s a better player than anyone else on my new list, but all those arguments are destroyed by the competition aspect of where he plays. And folks, this isn’t a DH.

DFAing players that still have upside is indicative of a healthy system. There’s a reason so many guys the Rays DFA get picked up quickly. Full transparency here, Diego was number 4 on my list, so it’s not like I thought he was the obvious choice, or I feel the need to defend the organization here. I’m simply saying once you’ve made my list, I’m done worrying about it.

Be sad the player you grew to like has been cut, but look at the whole picture and it makes total sense.

In my eyes, it’s very likely he gets picked up by someone else, despite what you read almost everyday there are teams much worse off than the Pirates where Castillo could get a real shot.

Breaking Down The Pirates Roster With Jason Martinez

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ycjqq-13417da

This week Craig is joined by Jason Martinez-Mr. Roster Resource-from Fangraphs to discuss the moves that have been made this off-season and those that still could be; along with what Pirates Fans can look forward to in the 2023 Season. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Is Rodolfo Castro a Placeholder, or the Real Deal?

12-20-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I told you all I was going to keep walking through this roster, and today I’m taking the next one on. First up was Jack Suwinski, this week is Rodolfo Castro.

I’m taking these in no particular order, just who interests me in the moment, or guys that I think could either turn into fixtures after this year or find themselves getting pushed aside. The really cool thing about covering a team in this stage of a rebuild is the different places players are in.

Rodolfo in particular kinda burst into our consciousness back in 2020. We were in the throws of COVID, baseball was struggling to find a way to come back and play some semblance of a season and the Pirates were deciding who was going to not only make the active roster, but also cherry picking prospects who were going to spend the year at their alternate training site in Altoona instead of being sent home to independently train and wait to be allowed back in the minor league system.

Suddenly some High A baseball player named Rodolfo Castro was added to the list. Nerds like Craig and I were happy because we were both high on him, but even we didn’t expect to hear him praised for being impressive there the way he was.

Even then, nobody knew what to make of this move. Lack of depth defensively? Maybe. Turns out, the Pirates simply loved the kid’s makeup, and scouts drooled over his ceiling.

The now 6 foot tall switch hitting infielder was signed out of the Dominican back in 2015 but pro scouts didn’t really take notice until he was reevaluated in the middle of 2019 as a 20 year old while playing with the Grasshoppers. That’s where his tool ratings jumped.

A 50 Grade Hit tool, 55 Grade Power, 50 Grade Baserunning, a 55 Grade Glove and a 60 Grade Arm, all add up to a guy with a middle infield starter’s ceiling even if utility man was still more likely. To be able to make declarations like that about a 20 year old, folks that’s not an everyday occurrence.

So when Ben Cherington and crew came on board later that year, they made a multitude of changes to the system organizationally including scouts and coaches. Despite all that changeover, one thing that remained was the gushing about this 20 year old, and it was forceful enough to convince the new powers that be to make sure they got their own eyes on him, before a potential Rule 5 decision needed made.

Still raw in 2021 the Pirates called him up to help fill in for Ke’Bryan Hayes and because he was displaying AA power and the upper levels certainly weren’t what they are today. Rodolfo was THE internal infield prospect who wasn’t Oneil Cruz before the Bucs made some moves to bring in additional options.

He’d wind up logging 31 games that year and most people boil his time that season down to the series against the Mets where he seemingly couldn’t do anything but hit homeruns. It’s easy to do that, because that’s just about all he did.

That was his cup of coffee and he was returned to AAA.

In 2022, Castro still was one of the more advanced infield options but the Pirates wanted to let him soak a bit more. When he was called up he was brought into a fairly unwelcoming situation.

The fans wanted Oneil Cruz, but instead got Rodolfo Castro, and to make matters worse, the Pirates wanted to see what Rudy could get done if given a stretch at SS. Now, he’s an “inferior” prospect, not only getting the call up first, but potentially trying out for the position that Cruz was supposed to play. It didn’t go well.

In 19 games at SS he put up a .934 fielding percentage with 5 errors and generally didn’t look comfortable. He struggled with double play exchanges. He struggled with fielding responsibilities on balls in play but not hit to him. His arm, plenty strong for the position failed him as he suddenly lacked the instinct that made him good in the first place. Worse, he was taking it to the plate with him.

Back down he went, and the SS experiment was ended.

He caught fire in AAA, rededicated himself to what the Pirates wanted him to focus on and earned a second call up.

That’s when things really started to come together for him.

This time the Pirates would use him at 3rd and 2nd base, and this time Rodolfo would approach each at bat as a fresh start.

In 253 at bats, he managed 11 homeruns, a .233 batting average and an OPS of .725. Not stellar, but no longer a guess. Rodolfo had finally put some roots in the ground.

The likelihood that Castro is the opening day second baseman is very high, but now isn’t the time for him to feel comfortable. While those numbers he put up would surely keep him in the league, they won’t secure starting anywhere. He’s got Ji-hwan Bae, Diego Castillo, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and Liover Peguero right there, hungry for their own opportunities.

Rodolfo has 20-25 homerun capability. He has all the range and arm strength to be a really capable second baseman. His bat plane and natural inclination to drive balls to the gaps are a PNC Park dream. All that said, for Castro to take the next step he needs to show the power is there when he isn’t swinging out of his shoes. More contact and a few less strikeouts could take him from role player to starter.

Of everyone on this team, almost nobody would be as threatened by a slow start. Again, there are a slew of alternatives and he doesn’t have the Super Star ceiling of his double play partner.

As you all know, I’m all about answering questions. That’s how I see prospects, as questions. To me, to truly answer the Castro question, I need to see him get somewhere between 400 & 500 at bats, regardless of where he plays the field. Never in his career at any level has he had more than 461 at bats and that was split between two levels.

After that, Castro will at least not be a mystery. If he pops those 20-25 dingers and gets the OPS even marginally higher he’ll be a difficult guy to take out of the lineup. Doesn’t mean he’ll eternally block all those other guys, but it does mean he’ll prove he’s a bat they can’t lose in an effort to get playing time for them.

Big year for Rodolfo Castro. I’m still high on him, but I can’t ignore what’s coming. His window is open, but it’s up to him to make sure it stays that way.

Looking forward to watching him play this year.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

12-19-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s hard to believe when you really sit back and think about it, it’s already Christmas week. It should be a relatively quiet week in baseball, but we all remember the Christmas Eve that Ben Cherington pulled off the Josh Bell move and I had to explain to my wife why I was writing during It’s a Wonderful Life.

Merry Christmas, or happy whatever else you celebrate. No matter what, you’re family and friends will likely come together over this time and I hope it’s wonderful for all of you.

Let’s dig in, we have a ton to cover.

1. Knowing is Half the Battle – Connor Joe

The Pirates pulled together a good old fashioned baseball trade Sunday. This time trading prospect Nick Garcia to the Colorado Rockies for 30 year old OF/1B Connor Joe, who used to be Pirates property way back when.

In fact, Connor was the Pirates supplemental pick (39th overall) back in 2014, traded to the Braves for Sean Rodriguez in 2017, bounced from the Braves to the Dodgers for International pool money. Taken by the Reds in the Rule 5 draft then traded to the Giants and ultimately returned to the Dodgers. Finally he was granted free agency in 2020 and signed with the Rockies where he finally got a shot and found a way to stick.

For his career, his 2.4 WAR and .730 OPS put him smack dab in the heart of average MLB players and when you plan to field a ton of prospects, rookies and second year players, bringing in some experience is wise.

There is no guarantee Joe makes the club. He has two options left and looks to be in direct competition with Miguel Andujar for a right handed bench/reserve outfielder on this club.

He doesn’t have a lot of power, I say that because if you get almost 700 at bats playing for Colorado and hit 15 homeruns, well, I don’t expect that expanded upon as a right handed player in PNC Park. He does get on base though and that’s not a bad thing to have on your bench if he does make the cut.

This is in no way a big deal. It’s more of a quality depth move. An attempt to avoid relying on all those youngsters yet leaving ability to allow them to outplay him and force him to AAA.

Now, onto Nick Garcia. Craig Toth wrote about him here way back when. Anthony Murphy wrote this about him in November.

Garcia is a very interesting prospect, but he’s raw. Meaning you weren’t going to see him impact this club for a couple more years, if he makes it at all, but he’s still someone with a really nice upside.

Part of the reason you build up a system like this, filled with redundancies, is so you can deal from it in an effort to fortify the upper levels.

Perhaps the best way I can put this is to say if I were covering the Atlanta Braves, this entire move might be a footnote.

This isn’t something to get mad about, it’s just depth. Nobody wants to go through another waiver wire claim fest trying to find people who can capably hold down a spot start/bench role in the outfield. Joe is little more than insurance against said eventuality, and even if borderline, MLB players cost something, in this case it was Garcia, and a roster spot for Nick Mears.

2. Hedging Their Bet with Austin Hedges

The Pirates needed a catcher. The Pirates got a catcher.

The Bucs prioritize defense at the catching position, and for the second straight year they have acquired someone perceived to be one of the very best defensive catchers in baseball.

That’s the rosy part.

The other side of the story is that Austin Hedges can’t hit a lick. This isn’t a guy who might emerge, or the Pirates are going to discover a hitch in his swing and magically help him put it together, he’s just a guy who doesn’t hit the baseball much.

His career .189 batting average is formed from parts of 8 MLB seasons, and this isn’t one of those guys where the batting average is going to be trumped by his OPS (career .578 BTW).

He can help a pitching staff, that much is true. He can hit the ball out of the park when and if he makes contact, that also is true. He’s also a 5 million dollar placeholder who the Pirates will hope can help develop the pitching staff and bring along their internal options like Endy Rodriguez or Henry Davis when they start to arrive in Pittsburgh.

Catching is one position on the field in which almost everyone will allow defense to be the priority, but Hedges is the definition of a hole in the lineup. I’m not here to tell you this will be a disaster, but I am going to say if the Pirates plan to continue batting Oneil Cruz at leadoff (which I personally wouldn’t, but not the point for today) you certainly can’t have Hedges batting 9th.

The team paid what the market requires at the moment, this wasn’t a “Pirates Premium” as I see it put often, but Hedges is simply not a 5 million dollar player most years. The catching market is thin, and hitting catchers, even thinner. Anyone who swung even a slightly threatening stick wanted multiple years, and the Pirates at this stage, with what they have coming weren’t interested in that kind of arrangement.

As to Roberto Perez, this likely means he won’t be returning. He just started playing Winter ball last week, which reportedly he didn’t want to do, simply felt he needed to prove he could still play to get some interest going.

One could infer the Pirates didn’t like what they saw, but that of course has not been reported.

His numbers aren’t all that much better offensively when compared to Hedges, but he’s at least a guy who puts together enough offense to allow his dWAR to drag up his overall WAR. That said, Hedges will stay on the field, at least historically, while Perez hasn’t.

The logical thing to come from fans will be of course why not just start the season with Endy Rodriguez?

This could be an entry all it’s own.

Endy has caught 3 AAA games. He’s caught 21 AA games. 51 in High A. He’s done fine, pitchers don’t hate him or anything silly like that but a team like this that openly prioritizes the defensive side of the game at the position is simply not going to believe 24 games caught above High A is enough to hand the keys over and trust him to run the staff.

Of course all the Super 2 and extra year crap is true, but if you want to be mad about it, be mad primarily because the bat is probably ready. The glove, at least as far as catching is in need of more refinement.

Another benefit to holding off a bit, it would be nice for Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Cody Bolton, and others to be met with a familiar backstop when they get to MLB themselves, while they’ve all crossed over with Endy, focusing on catching is different than doing so once or twice a week.

If we’re really honest, to this point, we haven’t seen if the Pirates see Endy as a catcher in the Bigs or not, he can and has played 1B, 2B, OF, C and is very capable at all of them.

Let’s let facts tell us Endy’s story instead of emotion and historic nefarious action.

Bottom line on Hedges, he can do this job, but he can’t hit. On a team that just suffered through a historically poor offensive season, that’s less than ideal to say the least. The Pirates are betting run prevention will make up for that to a greater degree than any catcher would add to run scoring they saw on the market. Well, at least 1 year deal types that is.

At some point, he’ll be a capable backup that we’ll be happy to have. To start the season, well, let’s just hope he was a big part of Cleveland’s magic formula for pitching.

3. So Are the Pirates Done Adding?

Maybe.

Much of this is dependent on the Bryan Reynolds situation.

As it stands right now, he’s not going anywhere. I’m not going to rehash this entire situation, I’ve written and talked extensively about it and I’m pretty sure if you wanted my take you’ve gotten it. The Pirates say they simply have no interest in moving him, and GM’s around the league have backed that up by leaking at least parts of what the Pirates are asking for. One went so far as to say they are looking for “a Soto like return”.

In baseball, “a Soto like return” is essentially like telling someone they can by your Honda Civic you owe $10,000 on for $20,000. Someone might have enough throw away money and care so little for shopping or lack patience enough that they’ll agree, but it’s very unlikely.

All that said, and even with the addition of Connor Joe, the Pirates still might be interested in another right handed stick.

For me, this would have to be a clear upgrade from what they have. I get bringing in Joe as competition, but if they bring in another bat I think it needs to be a clear 26 man addition. That’s going to mean a veteran, and there are plenty of those out there.

Many will bring up Andrew McCutchen and I’ll be honest, I’m torn here. For one thing, revisit those numbers I put up top for Connor Joe, then consider last year Cutch dropped a 1.1 WAR and even while racking up 17 homeruns his OPS only hit .700. Is that a clear upgrade? Defensively, I really don’t believe it is.

From a PR standpoint, Cutch needs 13 dingers to hit 300, he needs 52 hits to reach 2,000. He’s the most likely modern player to make the Pirates Hall of Fame, so it sure would be nice to see him set these milestones in a Pirates uniform.

Those of you desperate for hope on this front, he liked a tweet suggesting a reunion with the Pirates. Or… he liked a tweet that housed a sweet highlight package of him kicking ass. That said, Cutch is very careful with his image, he doesn’t do much that isn’t thoughtful. If this let’s you have sugar plums dancing in your head for a week, have at it.

Does he want to come back? Who knows. Do they want him to? Mixed bag there, I’ve had some tell me they haven’t ruled it out, some have said time to move on.

You all know I still believe they need a lefty starter, but I just don’t see it at this point.

Most of the additions I think we’ll see from here on out, barring a legitimate MLB trade, will be NRI’s (Non-Roster Invitees) or minor league signings as we ramp up for Spring.

I won’t go so far as to say the roster is set, but I will say I’d be genuinely surprised to see anything that moves the needle before we hit the sunny shores of Bradenton.

4. Super Early Look at the 26-Man Roster

If indeed they are done adding, where the hell are we? Let’s do a way too early exercise here so we have a clear look at it. To do this, I’ll be assuming the Pirates start with 13 pitchers.

Catcher
1. Austin Hedges (C)

Outfielders
2. Bryan Reynolds (LF/OF)
3. Jack Suwinski (RF/OF)
4. Ji-hwan Bae (CF/SS/2B)

Infielders
5. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
6. Oneil Cruz (SS)
7. Rodolfo Castro (2B/3B/SS)
8. Ji-Man Choi (1B/DH)

Designated Hitter
9. Carlos Santana (DH/1B)

Bench
10. Cal Mitchell (OF)
11. Tyler Heineman (C)
12. Miguel Andujar (OF/DH/3B/1B)
13. Jared Triolo (3B/SS/2B/1B/CF/OF)

Rotation
14. Mitch Keller
15. Roansy Contreras
16. JT Brubaker
17. Vince Velasquez
18. Johan Oviedo

Bullpen
19. David Bednar
20. Wil Crowe
21. Jose Hernandez (L-R5)
22. Jarlin Garcia (L)
23. Chase De Jong
24. Duane Underwood Jr.
25. Colin Holderman
26. Yerry De Los Santos

This is where I’d put things right now before we see a swing or a throw.

Obviously that means quite a few guys are going to get demoted, DFA’d, released, as we go through this thing, but folks the roster is simply more fleshed out. That bullpen and rotation especially is far superior to what we stared 2022 with.

Let’s see how it plays out and if nothing else, when asking this team to sign another player, at least aim higher than anyone you see here and be completely ok with not seeing that player again, the 40-man is full too after all.

A guy like Andujar for instance has no options, so he has a head start to make the team, where a guy like Connor Joe or Cal Mitchell have options and can be moved to AAA penalty free. If Andujar is beaten out in Spring, he’ll have to be clearly and soundly beaten if only because it will come with a dose of finality. That’s where we are right now, and it’s immeasurably better than wondering which waiver claim might have the ability to win a spot.

Probably not fast enough for any of us, but the team is improving, as will many of these legitimately young players.

5. A Message to Pittsburgh & Pirates Fans

Ladies and gentlemen, this message is a response to a thread created by Tim Williams over at Pirates Prospects and you’ll excuse me I hope for the profanity therein.

This went everywhere. All over Facebook and Twitter, up and down the fanbase.

Before I start, Tim has created a good site and brought on some very good writers. Nothing I say here is about him professionally or his team. I’m not a cancel guy, but I also am not a guy who is just going to sit back while my city is crapped on and make no comment. Feel free to read the thread, it’s quite something. In fact, it’s got a whole lot in it that’s very true, but the prism he views this city and indeed the fans through is at the very least covered in garbage.

Pittsburghers don’t see sports franchises as simply entertainment, we see them as sources of civic pride, unity and glory. When one of them doesn’t seem to be trying to achieve those goals, fans aren’t happy. Many can see progress, but many are tired of waiting and don’t feel like it’s their job to decipher everything the Pirates may or may not be doing behind the MLB level.

Older folks saw a golden age and as modernity has made not only winning but dynasties harder to achieve many of them have brought their 70’s expectations into the modern age. People who used to call talk radio and irrationally yell were hung up on and laughed at, now that’s become tweet or post and be laughed at, ridiculed, drug through the mud, reposted, misinterpreted further, cancelled and defamed.

Want to consider it possible Endy isn’t ready? Go ahead and try it on Twitter, see what happens. You won’t likely say it twice, I’ll leave it there.

Some of them have decided to just quiet themselves as a result. Questions like why can’t they get McCutchen back aren’t typically met with reason or explanation, instead they’re met with You sure are stupid. BOB would never pay for that. THEY don’t care dummy. Cutch sucks now moron!

That doesn’t mean Pittsburgh or Pirates fans are horrible people, it means some people, regardless of where they’re from are simply ignorant and have a ghastly way of using social media.

If you write, trust me, you know when someone hasn’t bothered to read what you wrote before commenting from their cut and paste sheet of Pirates insults. There was a time when I’d respond to them as I tried to build an audience, now I just ignore them all.

For this piece today I’ll have hundreds across platforms and on our site comment and if 10% are serious comments worthy of a reply It’ll be a shock. I’ll also have a solid one or two hundred who reach out via direct message.

Why? Because they don’t want called stupid for asking a question or admitting they like something. They want to have normal discourse about something they love and something they perpetually get told they’re stupid for enjoying. They don’t want to be “part of the problem” by saying they are excited about some cheap guy they signed.

Answering everyone in that fashion simply isn’t feasible for me. I do what I can, and sometimes I try to turn similar comments or questions into FAQ pieces, but the simple fear of dealing with the mob mentality online is too much for many.

Again, not Pittsburgh.

Perhaps I can see that because I live here. I live in the community, I walk this city. I go to games here. I talk to and meet readers and listeners and have yet to have someone come up and call me a bootlicker. I’ve never met anyone in person who decided to tell me how off base my every thought is. Know why? Because people, you know, the actual people you meet in real life, aren’t hiding behind a monitor. I’ve had spirited disagreements with people on sports opinions, in public and you might be shocked to know it didn’t devolve into name calling or punches. Hell I’ve brought a couple of them in to write with us because I value different opinions so much.

This was a cheap shot by Tim Williams. I don’t know him personally, but I will say, to visit Pittsburgh, or to cover Pittsburgh sports, is not to KNOW Pittsburgh.

We love our teams, we love our city, and for the most part, we love each other. Thick ass accents and all.

Pick a topic and someone on social media is taking it too seriously. Tim is a guy who periodically has this inclination, and I’ll be honest, I feel badly for the genuinely wonderful writers he’s brought on board. They just want to cover ball, instead they’ll be forced to distance themselves from a sentiment they never expressed.

Pirates fans have a reason to be upset, it’s not been an easy team to stick with and the franchise has not tried as hard as they could to be acceptable for decades. I simply don’t believe that equals a city that itself is miserable. Writing about this team requires a bit of empathy, if only because to not recognize the genuine pain many have about the state of baseball in Pittsburgh, maybe more aptly the hopelessness, is to ignore the single biggest impediment to understanding and open mindedness. Imagine me just telling you to shut up and be happy about Austin Hedges with no context for instance.

We’ve come a long way from a time when being Famalee was easy. The team won, the league was fair, the owner’s name didn’t matter, everyone knew what constituted a good player and this team had plenty of them.

Times have changed, baseball has changed, and so have people. Pittsburgh isn’t some drab shell of a steel town anymore, we paid our dues and came out of it as something different. As people often do, we kept the hardened toughness of that generation, even as our jobs often don’t require calluses on our hands today.

So no, Pittsburgh isn’t a miserable place, we’re just not a place that quietly accepts sitting back with our hands on our laps. Twitter isn’t Pittsburgh. Facebook isn’t Pittsburgh. More than anything Tim Williams doesn’t get Pittsburgh.

Stay classy Pittsburgh, even if everyone who covers your sports teams refuse to do the same.


The Pirates Rotation – Who’s in Play? What Decisions Need Made?

12-15-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It might be early for this. I mean it’s the middle of December so we have no way of knowing entirely what this list will look like by Spring Training. That said, I think there is value in understanding not only the player names, but also the stage of career each is in.

For instance, if all things are equal and the team has a choice to option a player to keep one who doesn’t have any, I like to think understanding this often under-advertised mechanism can help make sense of it.

So today, let’s break down who’s in play, their special circumstances, and finally make a way too early prediction of how this thing might look both at the beginning and even farther out, how it might look at the end.

It’s very possible, a member or two of this list is simply DFA’d. That’s how muddy this thing could get. A guy who I could 100% see being DFA’d, could also make the opening day rotation.

Roansy Contreras – 1 Option – FA 2029

All of his rookie year and COVID related herk and jerk stuff out of the way, Roansy is poised to simply be a Major League starting pitcher this year. When you get to the point Contreras has reached, having 1 option left hardly matters, unless he struggles, and mightily at that. The likelihood that he starts in the rotation and never sees a minor league field outside a rehab assignment again is very high.

Mitch Keller – 1 Option – FA 2026

Finally, after years of ups and downs, consternation, blow up innings sandwiched by brilliance, Mitch Keller looks to have found his stride. There is literally no more solid a member of this rotation.

JT Brubaker – 2 Options – FA 2026

Can this be the year JT puts together a complete season? For each of the past 3 seasons JT has gone through stretches where he was the best starter on the staff, problem is there’s always a but. But, he gave up too many homeruns and ran out of steam. But, his team played awful defense behind him and he struggled to overcome it. You could do this all day, point is, JT is still a question mark and at 29 years old, you have to figure upside has to turn into reality right now, or he takes his game to the bullpen. He’s every bit an MLB pitcher, that much is clear.

Vince Velasquez – N/A – FA 2024

Experienced free agent brought in on a one year deal who has bounced from rotation to bullpen and back again for half a decade at multiple stops along the way. Part of the Pirates sales pitch to sign a guy like this is to offer a real shot at the rotation, and the same was done with Jose Quintana last year and Tyler Anderson the year prior.

Bryse Wilson – 0 Options – FA 2027

When I talk about a player who could quite literally start in the rotation or be DFA’d, Wilson is probably example number 1. With no options but 4 years of team control remaining, the Pirates may want to at least get some innings out of him before moving on. He could be spared by a bullpen assignment, or get a shot at the rotation, but if they chose to DFA him and see if he clears waivers so they could store him in AAA, I wouldn’t be shocked.

Zach Thompson – 3 Options – FA 2028

Zach has options, bullpen experience, rotation experience and a big frame that can eat innings. When building a team, I can’t begin to illustrate how important it is to have guys like this. Spot starts, injury replacements, bullpen veteran, all these things with one player you can yo-yo as much as you need, and he still isn’t even in arbitration. He’s also super old to be in this position, at 29 and only a little over a year of service time, his role could be damn near anything, but zero chance he’s DFA’d. There’s value in just his flexibility.

Johan Oviedo – 1 Option – FA ??

Have to leave his FA year with question marks, because how he’s deployed this season will help write that story. Johan started for the Cards, then transitioned to the bullpen and back to starter with the Pirates. By the end of the season he put some nice outings on tape sprinkled around some rough ones. A shot in Spring seems likely, but it certainly isn’t guaranteed.

Luis Ortiz – 3 Options – FA ??

Luis debuted in 2022, and when you talk about someone bursting on the scene, yeah, it doesn’t get much more bursty if that’s a word (it isn’t) than Ortiz. It was insane to watch, and obviously filled fans heads with visions of the Pirates finally being that team who accidentally found a star pitcher. That might all wind up being true, but anyone who covers prospects will tell you that stretch of games wasn’t reflective of his minor league performance. His last outing against St. Louis showed that he still has some work to do, but the ceiling and talent level is simply off the charts with him. Can’t rule him out for winning a spot, but make no mistake, he has a hill to climb.

Mike Burrows – 3 Options – FA ??

If you follow my stuff, you know I’ve liked Mike Burrows since 2020, but last year he really emerged in AA Altoona. His callup to AAA Indy didn’t go nearly as well. Not that he looked overmatched, but there is still a jump in talent between those levels and things that worked in AA, might not in AAA. He needs more time, but he’s on this list because at some point, he’ll get his shot this year, even if it’s just to get his feet wet.

Cody Bolton –

You can’t list options or FA dates for guys who haven’t debuted or even been added to the 40-man. Basically, the clock hasn’t started yet. Cody is 24 years old, and after surviving the Rule 5 draft the Pirates would be wise to have him answer questions this year. Of all the minor league starters who haven’t made it to MLB yet, he could very well be the first one to get a crack, and bullpen isn’t out of the question, but Bolton has something.

Quinn Priester –

I’m hardly breaking news telling you the Pirates 2019 number one pick should make the league this year. A mature pitch mix, an ability to learn quickly and an athletic frame with an easy delivery, Quinn really is a nice prospect. No chance he starts out of Spring, but I wouldn’t spit out my coffee if he looked like one of their 5 best in Bradenton.

Wei-Chieh Huang – 2 Options – FA ??

Huang was selected by the Pirates in the MiLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. Relatively rare in so far as he has some actual MLB experience with Texas back in 2019. He’s 29 years old, and provides another under the radar guy with starter experience the team could bounce up and down if they choose to make room on the 40-man for him and his performance dictates it.

Opening Day Rotation Projection

Before we get into this, I just want to reinforce, it’s December 15th. The Pirates certainly might not be done shuffling this mix. But I like having an early look if only to help me recognize the moving parts. And yes, I’m going to put them in the order I see them. This is also what I think the Pirates might do, I would already have a lefty here for instance.

Mitch Keller
Roansy Contreras
JT Brubaker
Vince Velasquez
Johan Oviedo

I ultimately think the variable here is Wilson. If he looks like he did last Spring, out of shape with velo down, he’ll lose out to Oviedo. If he looks really good, and survives the 40-man in the first place to get there, he’ll send Oviedo to AAA, at least to start.

End of the Year Rotation

This is total BS ok. Like I can’t even tell you we’re done seeing moves before the season, let alone pretend I know how the entire season plays out. But I can tell you if I’m the Pirates front office, this is how I’d LOVE for it to turn out.

Mitch Keller
Roansy Contreras
Mike Burrows
Luis Ortiz
Quinn Priester

Now if you noticed this would require a bunch of stuff to happen. JT probably in the pen, Oviedo as well. Velasquez of course either in the pen or moved. Wilson and Thompson doing something somewhere.

And of course, these kids have to perform.

But, if the rotation looks like this by the end of 2023, man it’s hard to see many complaints about how the rotation has shaped up.

We can all be and most probably are a bit jaded about the Velasquez signing, but overall, I really like where this rotation is headed.

If they nail this, even though we hate the not spending aspect of what this team has done, the team will improve dramatically. Pitching is still king in MLB, and you’d have to be blind to not see how this is far different from how it looked and the options they had just a year ago.

Credit where due, the pitching staff is headed in the right direction.