12-12-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Prediction becomes religion if you aren’t careful.

You lay something out there and then sometimes you feel compelled to find ways to make every nugget of news fit your initial shot at it. This happens for just about every story that we follow year after year.

So and so is not good enough! Now the job is clear, prove yourself right. The dude hits a homerun, you talk about how many ballparks it wouldn’t be out. Guy makes a good play, make sure nobody forgets the bad one.

Build in plenty of escape hatches for yourself. Make sure you leave ways to worm your way around being wrong, instead, make the narrative that something completely unexpected happened and you are “thrilled” about it, but also, “everyone” missed it.

Rarely do you see anyone admit they were wrong.

Prediction is a big part of the fun when it comes to sports, but it shouldn’t become everything you are. In fact, instead of admitting you’re wrong eventually, perhaps it would be wise to simply admit up front there are multiple ways a thing could develop.

I’m not just talking about journalists here or bloggers, I’m talking normal everyday fans. When you marry a concept and can’t let it go, all it does is cloud your judgement on everything else. When you’re marrying something like how a 19 year old is going to evolve, when he’s going to get here, where he’s going to play and who he’s better than, inevitably you’re going to get forced into creating reasons you were wrong, and most of the time, it’ll be by blaming others.

Baseball is too hard for absolutes. Soften your stance and be open to dialog and freedom of thought.

Let’s do this.

1. Painted Into a Corner

When you have a very specific need as a baseball GM, you know you’re in dangerous territory. Teams aren’t stupid, they know what you need before you even sit down to talk, and vice versa. Teams typically know who is and isn’t on the table before sitting down too. At least who’s realistic.

That’s for trades, but agents also aren’t dumb, they know the Pirates for instance don’t have any left handed starting pitching, and when you take a specific need like that and amplify it by having it be a thin position on the market, you aren’t going to find it cheap.

Take a guy like Sean Manaea, who just signed with the Giants for 2 years and 25 million.

He’s a lefty starter who struggled last year but has a decent track record. Honestly a perfect target for the Pirates, and even for them should have been in the target spending zone too.

Every guy like this who comes off the board makes this job even harder.

When the Pirates jumped all over first base and made several moves and signings to address it for 2023, I understood many being underwhelmed with the names, but I was encouraged that they didn’t wait for the market to pin them into choices they didn’t want to make.

I hoped that would lead to doing much the same at catcher and starting pitcher. The free agent board is rarely going to be a place the Pirates thrive, so when you have little choice but to play in it, jump in early, overpay someone before the market starts to set itself and get out before most of the big dominoes have started to fall.

Once guys like Manaea are the “big fish” the Pirates are all but doomed. Had they jumped on this when there were still 5 or 6 comparable options, chances are they could snag one.

Now you have to wonder if they’ll manage to grab one at all, and if they do, their sights likely need to be on a Ryan Yarbrough type, who most in the league see as an iffy starter if not fully bullpen option at this point.

This team has many issues of course, but one they could control is to stop having a crisis of conviction every time they have to spend a dollar. It’s like I tell my wife sometimes, if ten dollars is an amount of money you even bother thinking about, COSTCO isn’t for you. Well, if a million here or there, an extra year once in a while, is something you consider consequential, good luck on the free agent market.

2. Pitch and Evolve

Despite my belief that this team would be doing less than they should if they happen to not snag a lefty starter, I really do like where they are with the overall staff.

First, the team won’t be quite as hamstrung by the innings restrictions that were a constant theme in 2022. I’d say every team will be free of that, but the Pirates made it even more restrictive last season than their competitors by in large.

I complained quite a bit about this last year, but as I discussed in the open, we must be free to continue taking a fresh look and while I still feel they should and could have used their starters better I can’t deny they were by far one of the healthiest starting groups in the league. Now you could argue that’s like buying a bottle of STP for your 1987 Datsun hoping the black smoke clears enough to pass inspection, but regardless they kept them on the road.

That’s not a small thing. Toward the end of the season you saw JT Brubaker start to break down and being one of the very few who wasn’t severely limited on innings, that makes sense. Zach Thompson got nicked up in the middle of the season and finished the season a bit less than the best version of himself, but aside from that, they stayed out of the training room.

Next season the Pirates plan to open up the availability more, and here’s the thing, that’s going to lead to needing depth. Finally they have some ready options.

As we sit here Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker, Zach Thompson, Bryse Wilson, Vince Velasquez, Johan Oviedo, and Luis Ortiz are all already there with MLB starting experience. I may not like all those names, but knowing they have 8 guys to fill what amounts to 4 spots at the beginning of the season is comforting. I still hope they sign another as I mentioned, but I digress. The club hasn’t stated their intentions with Velasquez yet, but based on what they paid him vs what they paid Quintana and Anderson, the writing is in my opinion sadly on the wall.

Behind them they have Mike Burrows, Quinn Priester, Cody Bolton and those are just the ones I really believe could contribute here in December.

They’ve finally gotten to the point where they have some depth, and I think that will pair nicely with them loosening the restraints a bit.

The bullpen had it’s own issues last year, but killing them in April, May and June made for a desperate July, August and September. Depth again will play a role.

Don’t get me wrong, there are guys that simply aren’t going to be easily replaced. If Bednar can’t stay healthy in 2023, well, that’s not great. Mitch Keller or Roansy, yeah, not going to recover easily there. Every team can say things like that. But when you have legitimate options for your 3-5 starters, and legitimate fill ins for your 1-6 bullpen options, you are bound to be better off than fishing on the waiver wire for someone who can give you innings down the stretch.

It’s a better situation, even if the results are still to be seen.

3. Things the Pirates Simply MUST See in 2023

The Bucs accomplished more than just stinking enough to get into the top of the draft lottery last season. They also managed to debut and give opportunity to a host of young players setting up 2023 for most of them to feel they have a really good chance to make the club and entrench themselves as MLB players.

Guys like Jack Suwinski, Roansy Contreras, Oneil Cruz, Cal Mitchell, Rodolfo Castro, Diego Castillo, Tucupita Marcano and more will all draw on that experience.

This year, the Pirates have to get this done for even more. Players like Mike Burrows, Quinn Priester, Cody Bolton, Blake Cederlind, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and again, more, should all get time to step in and step up.

This is healthy, and this group is much more high profile than the last, save Contreras and Cruz.

This is how these things happen. Take all the jaded looks at manipulating players out of the equation for a moment. Not because it doesn’t matter, instead because it’s unimportant to all but maybe one or two on that list. Rookies should be sprinkled in, not penciled in and counted on when at all possible.

I can tell you right this second, I truly believe Mike Burrows to have a better shot at being a good starter in MLB this year than I do Vince Velasquez. But there is nothing wrong with making both prove that out. For one thing, Vince could just keep the seat warm and transition to the pen, and for another, Burrows didn’t face much AAA competition yet and he didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet when he did. There is a difference between believing in a kid and counting on a kid.

That said, if we get to say August and Burrows hasn’t debuted yet, the Pirates are wasting an opportunity to get his feet wet.

One thing that nobody has truly found a way around in MLB, at some point, you’re going to have to let a rookie be a rookie. You have to accept the flaws and absorb the mistakes. Building out healthy safety nets for that process is important and something the Pirates haven’t done well recently.

Safety nets like Josh VanMeter aren’t going to provide the resistance needed to truly make a kid or team feel safe. Safety nets like Velasquez, well, maybe both entities feel a little less pressure. A real MLB pitcher is there and even if his ceiling is clearly defined and it’s far lower than Burrows, this gives you room to maneuver just in case the floor shows up instead.

Most of this list will find a way onto the roster this year in some form or fashion, and that’s going to open the door for moving on from even more guys that open the season with the big club.

Maybe Castro doesn’t take a step toward consistency. That could open a door for Gonzales and push Castro to the bench. Perhaps Castro kills it and that makes the Pirates consider moving Gonzales to the outfield.

Cruz could show SS simply can’t be his spot. That could open a door for Peguero. Maybe he shows he’s learned to control his fastball over to first and the Pirates consider alternate places to use Peggy.

This stuff is much more fun when we’re talking about prospects coming up because they’re ready instead of coming up because the team is desperate for proof the system is working.

As prospects do make their way to the club, some of these first rounders and highly touted guys rightly should wrestle jobs away from some of these players like Castillo and Mitchell if they don’t step up themselves. Throughout this process, I’m not saying you should stay reserved and not fall for a rookie, but when the system is where it is currently, realize that there simply isn’t room for all of them.

Some guys will get held back, others will seemingly jump over their teammates. This isn’t something we’ve seen around here often, not even when the team was good in the mid 2010’s. Prospects came up and worked out to be sure, but they didn’t have a glut of others pushing beyond that.

Jordy Mercer for instance was a fine player, good shortstop, decent all around. A for sure MLB player, and the Pirates did well to develop him into what he was.

Today’s team isn’t set up to allow that to happen. If Jordy Mercer is in the 2022 wave, he’s instantly pushed for playing time by the 2023 wave.

Josh Harrison probably has 4 or 5 fighting for super utility if he were transported to today’s roster.

That’s how you wind up with a better roster, and how you develop it internally.

You might lose a guy who legitimately has more upside yet, but it’s hard to argue if he’s replaced by someone with a higher ceiling.

Manage it poorly and you become the 2022 White Sox. Manage it well and you might just be the 2015 Royals dream.

Bottom line, the shuffling and trading isn’t over, nor should it be. Walking the balance beam of diagnosing what you have versus seeing the alternatives is a really hard thing to do. Most teams don’t debut 8-10 rookies in one campaign, this will be the last year the Pirates do in this cycle. After this it becomes a bit tighter, and the prospects have to show a bit more to get a crack.

4. About Some of Those 2022 Rookies

Some of the most interesting things to watch will be the evolution of those 2022 rookies. I wrote about Jack Suwinski on Sunday and as we build toward Spring Training this year I’ll be hitting all of them. Oneil Cruz, Roansy, Castro, Castillo, the list goes on and on. I think it’s important to remind ourselves of what they’ve already accomplished, things they overcame and what they still have to face.

Sometimes this stuff gets boiled down to “sophomore slump” type stuff, but if you really strive to understand what you’ve already seen, you find the sophomore slump is almost always a lot more about the league now knowing who the hell you are, and what you do and don’t do well.

I’m not going to try to write one here, I’m looking deeper than that, but suffice to say, almost everyone has warts. Those can be dealt with, but they can also be exposed.

This fact is extra important based on where the Bucs are. Like I discussed in point number 3 today, the Pirates have a glut of young talent poised to make their way to MLB during 2023 and they must be careful to understand and recognize that second year syndrome is ongoing even while others are coming up looking like they’re simply superior.

That might wind up being true, but those same players will be experiencing that very same phenomena next year, so it sure would be nice if you haven’t tossed aside maturing talent for fools gold when they do.

Man this building stuff is hard huh? It takes legitimately brilliant people and makes them look like drooling mouth breathers every single year.

Add in extra difficulty by openly remaking your entire system from a coaching, scouting and analytics point of view and you lose the perspective and trust that ordinarily would help guide you toward making informed decisions and you have a very blurry view of the everyday difficulties of building a team in the way the Pirates have chosen to pursue.

Now be afraid to spend on veterans when the need arises and you can just about forget success.

Here’s hoping they figure out that last part and pretty damn quick.

5. Payroll is Going Up?

I was a bit surprised to see Ben Cherington offer this up at the Winter Meetings.

First of all, it’s not typical for him to address payroll in even that straight a manner. Second, I’m not sure I see it unless they do something really out of character and soon.

We all know they have to get a catcher but if that’s over 5 million I’d be shocked, and I’ll go so far as to say even if they get two I’d be taken aback if the total spend was more than that.

If they get a starting pitcher, which I’ll openly say they should, again, I’d be shocked if they spent even 10 million there.

This made me feel they must be working on or at least considering locking up someone.

Take off your Reynolds hat for a moment. I say that because even if the Pirates want to do that, we simply can’t assume Cherington is so sure he’ll get it done that he’d factor it into a statement.

The opening day roster last year was reportedly around 60 million according to Pirates Prospects, and Spotrac has them around 61 million. Trust me, Ethan at PP has this closer I’d wager.

Right now Spotrac has their estimated payroll at close to 53 million so there is work to do.

Add in all the benefits and odds and ends and last year it was somewhere around 73 million. This year is projected to be just around the same.

Point is, if they really want to make the payroll grow they’re going to have to pay someone who wasn’t scheduled to get paid, or bring in someone from the outside and pay them.

Again, when a GM says something and disproving it is as black and white as you said this and then instead this is what happened, well, trust me, they don’t say it. Expect payroll to go up.

Thing is, if I’m the Pirates I have a couple things I’m prioritizing here. Reynolds, sure, I’d love that, but again I’m taking off the Reynolds hat for this talk.

Let’s get Cruz extended, if he’s open to it, it’ll be right now. He’s got a family, and waiting 2 more years before really making bank isn’t fun when trying to feed your kids. I’d approach him now and offer him something even if just to get the dialog going. Next, I’d hit up Mitch Keller, you worked hard to help him overcome his struggles, and to nobody’s benefit it took until he reached arbitration. Don’t let someone else benefit from what you’ve developed, lock him up for a little while, if he one day is your number 3 or 4, great, you’ll need that too and look at the market, do you ever see yourselves playing there?

I’d also see if I could get JT Brubaker to take a modest deal. Something in the 4-5 million per range. Something that allows him to be a starter if he blossoms or move to the pen if he doesn’t. Either way, I want a guy who cared so much in a 100 loss season as to work his ass off to return from the IL just to make one more start down the stretch. That’s a ball player, and an arm I want around no matter what capacity he fills best in the future.

I think you could get all of this done and still not crack 100 million this year. If I’m the Pirates, I structure these deals to cost more up front than I need them to, if only to make them more affordable and provide, gulp, flexibility later.

This is a team that could easily start to change public perception, if only they’d open their eyes and minds to how very little it would take to do so.

And before you attack me for why no Roansy, well, I want to see a little more. That might be foolish, but I saw some things toward the end of the year, and I need to see why they happened. Tired or scouted? Let me see in 2023.

12-7-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Ya know, I sat down to try to figure how I was going to cover all the news and notes from the Winter Meetings, and it just made a whole bunch of sense to build it into this format. I’ve easily got 5 thoughts, and none of the 5 are worth a full blown piece on their own.

So, lets go shall we?

1. Pirates Sign Two Arms

We knew the Pirates weren’t done signing free agents, and they continued yesterday. Inking two veteran pitchers is a good thing, one is a sneaky good signing, the other is going to catch me off guard if it goes well.

Let’s start with the one I’m more iffy about.

Vince Velasquez

Pirates In Agreement With Vince Velasquez On One-Year https://t.co/ixVTCs3EIs pic.twitter.com/9vQAH8mPfl

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) December 6, 2022

Here’s the thing, if the Pirates see this as an option for the rotation, I’m not very happy. If they see him as a signing for the bullpen, even if it’s a long man/swing man/spot starter type thing, I’m still not excited, but I at least can get behind it.

Vince will make 3.15 million, which for the Pirates especially compared to what they spent on Quintana (2M), or Anderson (2.5M) makes you think they see him as a 5th starter option. Again, I think he’s better in the pen, and if this is THE starting pitcher they sign, I’m not going to pretend they did something I believe in here.

This is a guy who’s never finished a season with an ERA under 4, and had a few that finished above 5 or 6.

If there’s reason to be open to it, he’s a guy who throws a sinker, although he’s had very little success with it, and the Pirates have done well helping guys discover that pitch and use it to strengthen their overall offering.

Consistency is the name of the game, and it’s also Vince’s biggest issue. He’ll impress you with swing and miss stuff at times, then it’ll just disappear for stretches. He’ll go through periods where he has his control under, well, control and then suddenly walk a ton in a couple outings. Big guy, decent stuff, again, consistency is the issue and at 30 years old, you’d rather identify something mechanical than have to deal with repeatability.

This may be as simple as is he better than Bryse Wilson or Zach Thompson, and the jury will be out on that until we see it.

That’s my opinion at the moment. Keep in mind I was livid Quintana was their starting free agent last year. I’m not always right, just reading the tea leaves as I see them today. Hey, they signed a Boras guy! So there’s that.

Now, they also signed another pitcher and this one, I’m really happy with.

Jarlin Garcia, and the deal is for $2.5 million in 2023, with a $3.25 million club option for 2024.

If deal goes through, LHP Jarlin Garcia has made 285 appearances over the past six seasons with the Marlins and Giants. Has a 3.61 ERA during that time while walking 104 and striking out 259 in 322 innings.

— Jason Mackey (@JMackeyPG) December 6, 2022

Jarlin uses a fastball, changeup and slider and he’s a classic one inning lefty with a career WHIP of 1.15. I’ve simply got no complaints here, for any team I’d say this is a nice pickup but for a starved for left handed pitching team like Pittsburgh, he’s important.

Arguably too important. His consistency has been phenomenal, but 55-60 appearances eating 55-60 innings isn’t all this club will likely need from that side of the mound.

His K to BB percentage is fine, he won’t strikeout a ton of guys but he gets the job done, and he’s got a bit of an edge to him too.

Really, and you all know I try, nothing to hate here.

2. Pirates Win MLB’s Inaugural Draft Lottery

The Pirates had a 16.5% chance of winning the number one overall pick, as did the Washington Nationals and Oakland A’s. The Reds who finished with the exact same record as the Pirates but due to tie breakers wound up in 4th place with a 13.5% chance were knocked by the lottery all the way down the board to 7th. The A’s fell all the way to 6th.

Now, if your team gets a really high draft pick, you should be happy.

Dancing in the streets is a bit much, but the alternative is you stunk last year and wound up like the Reds or A’s tumbling down the board and not being rewarded with the supposed “help” that picking high should provide.

When the story of Ben Cherington is written, this stretch of history will probably highlight his story.

He’s now had picks of 7th, 1st, 4th and now 1st again. No matter how you shake this thing up, that stretch should matter, and if it doesn’t, there’ll be nobody else to point your finger at.

Immediately the natural question is going to be so who do they get? Dylan Crews is the consensus number one right now, but folks, you know me, it’s too early to guess. this time a couple years ago it was Kumar Rocker, last year it was Elijah Greene, you know, until it wasn’t. Point is in an era stretching back to 2010 in which the top 6 picks are making MLB at a 90% clip, you can’t afford to miss.

Every one of those 4 picks by Cherington should minimally get here, and with two 1.1 selections, there really should be a star or two.

If not, he’s failed.

We can get into all the after they arrive problems the Pirates contend with like keeping players and whatnot, but before we get there, we first have to see them become players you’d want them to keep.

Happy in the moment, check. But it doesn’t matter if the picks were wrong or the development system fails them. Here’s hoping.

As most of you know, I don’t think this team had to stink this bad in the process of remaking the system, the counter argument to that is you have to have high end talent in order for this to actually work. Well, now they’ve done exactly that, they stunk out loud for 3 years under Cherington and managed to “earn” themselves a stretch of 1-4-1 in the draft.

Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis have a chance to debut this year. Termarr Johnson has a while to go yet. All told, they’ll likely add another guy with pedigree who should absolutely be expected to be a star. That’s what 1.1 should be.

Make it count.

3. The Rule 5 Draft is at 5PM Today

First, lets get this out of the way. The Pirates were at 38/40 on their 40-man, so they have room to add. Yes, they have agreed to terms with two free agents, but both have to pass physicals and sign before the roster has to reflect that. Bottom line, they still have room if they want to make a selection.

And they really should. My target is Erik Miller from the Phillies. A bit left handed pitcher who I believe they could take a shot at, let him compete all Spring to win a spot in that pen and if he fails, return him, no harm, no foul.

If he makes it, you have a high ceiling guy who I personally think is right on the cusp of ready to compete in a valuable need position for this club. The Pirates pick 3rd as the lottery doesn’t effect this draft order, so they’ll likely have choices who are attractive on the board.

As to whom I think they have risk of losing, my list is pretty short.

Cody Bolton, he’s been a starter, had a nice bounce back season in 2022 and could easily survive a bullpen all season somewhere.

Tahnaj Thomas, a guy who can hit triple digits on the gun is always an attractive pick up in the Rule five. His control has been his issue and it’s prevented his promotion through the system. He also moved from starting to bullpen which is ultimately where he belongs I believe so it wouldn’t shock me to see someone take a swing. I also think he’d be a big return to the club candidate if he is selected.

Matt Gorski, much like velocity, power is a draw. He has it, but he might not have enough upper level experience to see someone take a shot. Hard to stash a position player, but his field versatility gives him a better shot than most.

That’s it.

No I didn’t forget Nunez or Sabol, I simply don’t think they’ll be selected.

4. So, Where’s the Friggin’ Catcher?

We all knew they were going to have to get a catcher, and that was before they went ahead and told us in advance Endy Rodriguez, the teams top catching prospect and only one on the 40 man will start in AAA. He has all of 22 at bats at that level and he’ll be this year’s Oneil Cruz for everyone to scream for every time whomever they do bring in strikes out.

Well, the names I’ve heard are of course Roberto Perez, and Tucker Barnhart. Today, Jason Mackey confirmed one of them is at least getting attention from the team.

Per sources: Pirates have expressed interest in catcher Tucker Barnhart. Two-time Gold Glove winner has spent the bulk of his career with Reds. Coming off down year with Detroit. Looking for bounce-back. Excellent fit.

— Jason Mackey (@JMackeyPG) December 7, 2022

Think Jacob Stallings here. His offense is just about at that level and the glove is legit. He’s kinda a switch hitter. I say that because he used to be, then stopped to only focus on lefty hitting and went back to it last year with Detroit.

Now, he had a horrible year in Detroit, but going from one of the smallest ballparks in the country to one of the biggest can do that to a fella you know.

Bottom line, whomever they get here is a stopgap for Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez.

I also wouldn’t rule out a guy like Blake Sabol winning a spot out of Spring. He’s too old to be concerned about super 2 or an extra year, and good enough back there to play second banana to a free agent while filling in elsewhere in the field on occasion. This paragraph probably says I should be concerned about Blake being taken in the Rule 5 but I just don’t think he’s done what he did last year long enough.

I don’t think they’ll get two guys here. They still have Delay if they chose to just go vanilla with the backup gig, and signing two like Barnhart and Perez would be a bit weird. That said, if you can get both for say 4 or 5 million to be a unit, maybe.

5. Now About That Lefty Starter

There are no guarantees they get one.

We keep seeing them fall off the board though, the latest being Jose Quintana to the Mets. Sean Manea is still out there, with minimal rumors surrounding him oddly. He did have an off season but that seemingly doesn’t scare the Pirates off from many free agents does it?

I think if I had to guess right now, Ryan Yarbrough is a guy that seems to fit what the Pirates typically look for.

I’ll say this, if they don’t get one it’s a mistake. Having an all right handed rotation is certainly not unprecedented, but you need in my opinion a lefty to break up the lineup consistency from the opponents.

David Price is too old most likely, but could work. Carlos Rodon I’m not going to waste my time pretending. Wade Miley can’t stay healthy. Mike Minor you wish he wouldn’t stay healthy. Drew Smyly is interesting. Danny Duffy, meh.

The Pirates claim to want to show improvement this year and to me this is a very important component. They may have to consider trading to get it.

6. Reynolds

Mid week, no rules, so I’m going six today.

There really isn’t much on this to add to what I’ve already written.

It’s very much so feeling like the Pirates plan to just keep him, and according to by contacts, they’re probably not even done trying to get a deal done.

I don’t write this to get your hopes up, and someone could certainly come along with a deal they can’t pass up, but just this week at the Winter Meetings Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington doubled down on keeping him, liking him, having a good relationship with him and Cherington in particular went so far as to essentially point a finger at his agent for this becoming a story.

Take from that what you will.

I take from it that for now, he’s going to be a Pirate when the season gets underway if only because they can’t find a way to square “showing real improvement in 2023” with trading their best player and no team can offer a return that accomplishes something that even resembles that.

Stay tuned.

12-5-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

MLB’s Winter Meetings were always going to be interesting for the Pirates this year, but as they get underway, the main topic of discussion has shifted to one subject.

I’ve written as much as I know about the Reynolds situation, but no chance I get through 5 Pirates thoughts without him and his situation creeping in.

Let’s do this folks, cause Reynolds here or gone there will still be a team come April so even if that’s all you want to hear about right now, I’m going to try real hard to keep in mind there are other issues.

Not to ignore the elephant in the room, but to instead keep in mind there are multiple elephants. This team already had work to do, if they move Reynolds, they have even more.

1. Hostages VS Volunteers

This dichotomy was pointed out last Steelers season by Mike Tomlin when explaining why they went ahead and traded outside linebacker Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs after he had requested to be moved. The NFL, NBA and even the NHL are simply different entities, and the punitive nature of a player sitting out is often far less oppressive than it is in MLB. Remember how “stupid” the Steelers were for capitulating?

Many people have already cited something similar with Bryan Reynolds’ situation.

Here’s the thing though, this is a valuable player to the organization. You’ve all seen the trade pieces the Justin, Joe and Corey write on our site, they all use FV or Future Value to estimate the value of a player. This is one way to do it, not the only way by any stretch, but in some form or fashion, every team, every site, every agent, has a method for valuing their assets. For Bryan, he’s worth in the case of FV, close to 59 million dollars.

That means in the 3 years he’s still controlled, meaning arbitration eligible which he’d remain even if traded by the way, that’s the asset cost formulated to calculate an adequate return.

Again every team or agent will have a different number for this. Some could have him as low as 40 or 45, others could have him even higher.

I said yesterday, the Pirates were under no obligation to move him just because he requested it, and of course, that gets pushback.

Way back in 1974, and thanks to my buddy Craig Toth for this, the league and the union made a change to the arbitration and service time process. This change has done something to expressly address the eventuality that players would not be happy with the club that drafted them. MLB and the Union agreed to not allow service time to accrue during holdouts.

Let me simplify this for you here. If Bryan were to sit out 2023 in protest, first of all, he’d be the first to do so since the rule change back in 1974, and he’d quite literally only devolve his own situation. Meaning all he’d do is kick his team control clock down the road.

I say this because I was caught off guard by some big names in the baseball writing world both nationally and locally seem to think Reynolds sitting out is a real possibility, even with some saying he could “afford it”.

So could everyone else. What they can’t afford or more accurately won’t afford, is to make free agency even further away than it already is.

Now, if you want to get into moral issues, have at it, but this happens every single year. Think Vlad is pleased to still be dealing with arbitration in Toronto? Devers seems pretty happy about it in Boston. Kris Bryant did the same thing in Chicago. It’s part of the game, and folks if he’s not traded, he’ll play.

No, he won’t tank either. All that would do is hurt his value and his own free agency when it does come up. If anything he’d actually make it harder to move him.

Bottom line, the Pirates aren’t going to move him for nothing, fully acknowledging there is no “winning” a deal like this. If they choose to just hold on to him, he’ll play, and I’m sure he’ll look like himself because he’s a professional. They could very much so subscribe to Tomlin’s statement up there, but if the hit it causes their plan is too steep, well, changing a moral compass is often easily justified in life isn’t it?

Some fans will take this as Bryan not wanting to play for them, as in fans, not the team, and they’ll take it out on him, which is just as dumb as hating a guy for signing a big contract and then not being good enough in your eyes to “earn his paycheck”.

This is a sport, but in the offseason it’s a business. Business isn’t always pretty, or fair, but it is bound by rules, regulations and history tends to be a true predictor of outcome.

The more I look at this situation, the more I think a 2 year deal was signed with a soft promise they’d revisit an extension this offseason that could potentially pay him more than the 6.25 million he’s signed for in 2023 as well as move them into the future. That’s the only way I see this entire situation turning on a heel this quickly, but on this, I’m guessing.

Finally, every major league has an entry level process, and every one of them has come under fire for not being fair. This sort of thing isn’t new, it’s just not often public.

2. The Song Remains the Same

The Pirates still have the same holes they need to fill, perhaps with the addition of a veteran starting quality outfielder.

They must get a starting pitcher, preferably a left handed one. They must get a catcher, preferably starting quality. They need to get a left handed reliever minimally for the pen.

They can’t lose sight of a couple things while this drama is going on.

This team has to win with Oneil Cruz. Every year they don’t surround him is just as dumb as the years they spent doing the same to Reynolds.

Ideally those two would be together, but either way, because of Cruz they can’t afford to just allow this whole thing to essentially take a step back.

I’m under no illusion that this management team is beyond error, that’s fairly clear no? I’d like to think they understand where they are and why they simply can’t decide this situation should have them looking to put progress on hold.

Oh, don’t get me wrong, it very well could have them frozen almost, but my point is it shouldn’t.

Just like you expect Oneil to learn to handle a curveball, so too the front office should be expected to handle a change to the expected path to relevancy. I’ve already talked about the very real hit losing a player like Reynolds will be, at this stage of the offseason the Pirates or any team that doesn’t feel they have the wherewithal to address the issues created is lying.

This isn’t like your star player ruptures his ACL on April 1st and your hands are tied. It’s December 5th. They have next to no payroll, they have prospect capital, they have a star they could move.

I’m not saying it would be easy, but I am saying if they let this situation derail everything, it’s an active choice, not something they were dealt.

In other words, if my nice SUV should die tomorrow and I still owe half it’s worth, I may have to get a Kia just to have some wheels as opposed to just sit there thinking I’m going to hitchhike to work every day until I pay it off. You can’t expect to replace the player entirely, but you can put in place a reasonable facsimile that minimizes the pain.

Don’t let them off the hook here for this aspect. This situation sucks, but they have options at their disposal to make it suck less.

Of all the things the Pirates do wrong, the worst is willingly being a victim. MLB disadvantaged this market along with some others with their system, the Pirates often strive to have you believe its more out of their hands than reality dictates.

3. What the System Lacks

The Pirates system is quite good. Lots of depth, nice quality, spaced out enough to expect it to help the big club for years to come. What it’s missing though in my mind is transformative players.

They have a whole lot of good, but I look at the system right now and I don’t see a whole lot of obvious future MVP candidates.

You know what I mean too. I see no Wander Franco, no Julio Rodriguez, I’m not seeing a Bobby Witt Jr. or a Vlad Jr. I see lots of really good players, maybe even some future All Stars, but for a team that has picked as close to the top of the board as the Pirates have, I just don’t see many players that have the anticipation Oneil Cruz brought with him.

Maybe it’s because I can’t see it.

For instance, entering last season I’d have Endy Rodriguez in that category. Very good, probably not transformative. Now, I think if anyone in the system who’s close has that ability it might be him. So maybe it’s just I’m not doing a good job of seeing through the incubation period.

That’s me being nice though. I’m not here to tell you I’m the best talent evaluator alive or anything, but I can also say I knew Witt, Rodriguez and Wander were going to be difference makers, just like most people who pay attention did. More importantly, I know when I don’t see it.

If I had to pick one really young guy right now and predict he had the stuff to really be this type of player, I might have to go Anthony Solometo but even he is so raw it’s hard to pin something like that on him.

Again, there will be a lot of good players that come out of this system, I truly mean that, but everyone should know, for a team like this to shock the world, they’ll need more than just Cruz to be that type of freak.

4. Early Reports…

The Winter Meetings are in full swing today, and things that get started here will often reignite come deadline time.

For now, the Pirates seem to be sticking to their guns. Robert Murray, one of my very favorite national baseball writers says in this YouTube post that the chances of moving Reynolds at this time is “slim”, and I can totally believe that, but that doesn’t mean foundation won’t be laid here.

The Baseball Insiders, live from the Winter Meetings: Verlander/Mets, pitching market, what I’m hearing around the league. https://t.co/C8rOaC7ECE

— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) December 5, 2022

In other words, the Pirates may not be willing right now, but they’ll lay out their expectations for return and see what teams consider an overreach.

I’ve also been told from the team perspective, this isn’t a fe de’ compli and they aren’t ruling out taking one more swing at getting something done.

Don’t get your hopes up, simply passing on what I’m hearing, and things like this will often get leaked just to reinforce how loathed they are to deal an asset.

The Marlins have put some players on the table that could force this deal to make sense for the Pirates.

Marlins won’t listen on Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara but will listen on “almost anyone” else. So beyond Pablo Lopez they will hear overtures on Luzardo, Cabrera and other starters. Marlins have abundance of arms in market where starters’ values are sky high. Need hitters.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 4, 2022

This is an opportunity to get that front line starter under team control for 3 or more years. Now, does that matter if it means your historically bad offense just lost one of it’s best players? Debatable.

These rumors are going to be increasingly crazy. When they really get insane and the Pirates say no, you’ll know how serious they are about sticking to their guns here.

We’ll see.

5. 11 Years, 300 Million

Trea Turner just signed with the Phillies for that amount and for that long. He’ll be 40 in the last year of that deal.

Justin Verlander took a two year deal from the Mets for 86.66 Million and he’s already 40 and will be pitching next to Max Scherzer who will be 40 when his 130 million dollar deal is through.

We’re told that fear of regression in a long contract is part of why the Pirates and Bryan Reynolds had negotiations break down, but folks, teams have found they have to ignore that traditional wisdom to do business in this league, and the numbers are only getting bigger and the contracts longer.

I’m not one of these people who’s going to sit here and tell you these big spenders are dumb or that these are bad contracts. I think it’s clear especially in the case of the Turner deal, that the Phillies are just fine if he only gives them 7 years of great. The fade years are a calculated risk, a posting fee if you will.

MLB is pay to play and the Pirates don’t spend and even if they will they won’t lock themselves in for knowingly buying years that have the slightest chance of being past prime.

Nothing depresses a fan base like Pittsburgh more than watching some of these numbers fly by the screen.

All of the concerns you’ve been told are out there are immediately proven to be necessary risks for teams that are really in it.

Contract after contract roll in, each one in comparison to the Pirates total payroll laughable.

Thing is, deals like this are really what the Pirates can’t compete with. They could afford 3 or 4 years of Turner at 23.5 per, they just can’t afford (or at least think they can’t) to spend that on what by the end would be far from their best player.

Is this all Nutting? Partially for sure, but look the Cardinals are the only team in our division that could even entertain this type of deal, and even they tend to shy away from going this big.

Nutting stinks. He’s not been a good steward of this franchise, but my fandom stretches back long before he was involved.

I’ve never seen my team truly in the conversation for any top line free agent. Not in my lifetime.

I’ll leave it here today.

Baseball is broken, it has been and the next chance that it isn’t comes in 2027.

It couldn’t possibly be more clear the Pirates won’t and honestly couldn’t if they wanted to, buy their way in to relevancy.

Want to know why fans buy this year after year? Well, they love baseball, love their city, love the colors, and hope against hope that this time they do everything perfectly. That’s why this Reynolds situation is such a dagger, clearly perfectly is already out the window.

We simply aren’t playing the same game here in Pittsburgh. There are other teams in the same boat to be sure, but no matter how you peel the onion you wind up with stinky fingers and tears in your eyes.

The one thing positive to take from what we’ll watch unfold this offseason, the more ridiculous the divide gets, the larger the chance MLB has to fix it in some way. I just can’t guarantee we’ll like the fix.