12-1-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Listen, most of the time I won’t overtly write “opinion” right in the headline, but considering the team I cover and how unusual it is to have an opinion like this, I felt the need to make sure I spell it out.

The prevailing wisdom for what the Pirates would do this off season has largely been some variation of “punt”. You know you’ve heard it, and you know you’ve heard it often enough to see all the typical commenters who “love their team” but “hate the owner” use it as their calling card.

You also likely know, I haven’t agreed with said prevailing wisdom at all.

Every person I talk to internally have impressed on me that they plan to make a real run at taking a positive step this year, some as directly as to say .500. In other words, not a punt, not status quo, not tryouts, not dumpster diving, but a real effort to take what they have and add to it in an effort to experience some success at the MLB level.

This message was delivered side by side with as strong an impression that could be given they have no desire to move Bryan Reynolds or David Bednar or any other top talent you can think of currently in MLB.

Now, I have no doubt that the reports or even just conjecture that the Pirates would sit on their hands and suck again next year or at the very least rely solely on internal improvement, not additions from the outside, came from somewhere. I don’t believe anyone is in the business of making things up. Especially if there is a possibility it’ll be wrong.

The Pirates doing nothing, well, let’s just say history is on your side. If you want to make an educated guess, it makes total sense you’d lean in the direction of this team yet again sitting out most of the offseason, maybe grabbing a scrap here and there if only to ensure they can prevent a prospect or two from coming up. Make no mistake, they’ll certainly add more guys off the scrap heap and NRIs (Non-Roster Invitees) before we get to Bradenton, that’s different.

Thing is, they’ve absolutely been guilty of this. The Pirates are a team that has routinely spent very little, and tend to require insane amounts of evidence that the team is “worthy” of investing in before doing so, even to the meager level this franchise is going to reach, either through their own restrictions or MLB’s depending on what you believe. That part hardly matters, nor does it change what you’ve seen play out.

Well, I’m here to tell you, this year, 2023, this team is still not going to spend a whole lot, but it has more to do with where the payroll started than what they’ll add.

Ben Cherington said he wanted to solve first base this year, and he meant specifically this year. To do that, he brought in 2 players on one year deals. One by trade, one via free agency. They actually brought in another who they just DFA’d. This was done for a simple reason, the team wants to show MLB improvement in 2023, and didn’t feel they’d achieve that by opening the season with a rookie or couple of rookies, but also liked the prospects enough to not want to permanently block them by signing someone for 3 or 4 years.

Yes, they’ll probably trade one of them, maybe both, or maybe they’ll decide one of them is worth another season. Point is, first base in 2023 has seen the investment more than double over last season.

General managers don’t like to say things that can tie them to a direction or a number. You’ll never hear a GM, even a Yankees GM for that matter come out and tell you exactly how much payroll they want to spend. Rarely will you hear them directly tell you their needs in much more than a vague acknowledgement that they “could” look to add to a position.

This is because more than anything else, GM’s don’t want to be publicly wrong. That’s pretty human actually, probably speaks a bit to why so many would go with the easy prediction for 2023 for that matter, but I digress.

Point being, when a GM does say things that tie he or she down a bit, listen. Chances are they’ll be moving heaven and Earth to ensure they don’t get caught “lying”.

In some exclusive reporting by Alex Stumpf at DK Pittsburgh Sports a case in point was provided. Ben Cherington says “We like where we’re starting to get to in terms of the collection of young pitching we have and some guys making some gains this year, there’s a chance for some of those guys to reach another level next year, but we’d like to add to the group.”

On the pitching front, he’s also said he isn’t opposed to a multi year deal.

Again, guys like this don’t want to be wrong, but nothing here says Jacob DeGrom or bust.

This is part of where my prediction comes in and it’s really less of a prediction than simply believing what we’ve been told.

I expect 1 to 3 pitchers brought in and I expect them to be MLB quality because they will cost them players on their 40-man currently. In other words, you aren’t likely to sacrifice someone you think COULD help for someone who COULD, on the other hand, when looking for real improvement you might sacrifice someone who COULD help for someone you believe WILL. 1 starter is a no brainer and I word it the way I do simply because beyond that 1 starter I could see a signing that could do that or bullpen and one dedicated bullpen option.

Want more than evidence? Well, they currently have no left handed pitching. None. On the entire 40-man roster. Point being, I see no way they escape signing or acquiring at least 2 lefties.

These could be trades, they could be free agents, but I’m gonna be bullish here, I won’t count a potential Rule 5 pickup in my overall MLB talent brought in tally. In other words if they get one in that draft I won’t let it help me be right.

As to the other signings or acquisitions I see, nothing could be more in your face than catcher. As it stands the Pirates have two on their 40-man roster. Endy Rodriguez and Ali Sanchez, one is a waiver claim, the other a player that almost assuredly will start in AAA. We know, and they know, they need to get another. In fact, even if they completely heel turn and start Endy right out of Spring, they’ll still need to sign a qualified backup because Sanchez simply won’t cut the muster for that role, not to a rookie.

I could see them getting a lower level free agent right handed outfielder, but if they did it’d almost have to be a trade.

All told I think that adds up to about 3 or 4 MLB additions to the roster before Spring and piled on top of what they’ve already done that’s a fairly decent swing at hitting that .500/respectable region. Doesn’t mean they’ll perform. Doesn’t mean it’ll work or they’ll make all the right choices, but it does mean even to cynics like me, they will try.

Couple reasons you do this at this stage before I sign off here today.

First, we mustn’t forget, Travis Williams is technically in charge of Ben Cherington. This doesn’t mean he’s suggesting guys to sign or even how much they spend or where to spend it as much as to say 4 straight years of losing and visibly not trying to improve while waiting for kids to arrive is murder on ticket sales. It stands to reason when you get to the point you have few very defined holes in your roster, at least holes you can’t reasonably fill internally, and your payroll is miniscule, you might actually try to fill those holes in an effort to make fans believe you care, and you might feel you are now close enough to truly see what this core can do if you support them a bit.

Next, I know this to be true for one player in particular but it certainly could be more, when trying to extend guys you want to keep around, some of them want to first see you’re willing to invest around them too. In other words, are we going to be 100% dependent on what you can develop in our system or are you willing to go get what doesn’t come along so we have everything sewed up? One thing many don’t realize is that MLB players, at least players who came up in a system, tend to pay close attention to what or whom is coming. They know where the holes are in other words.

Finally, it’s time, and even while MLB tends to be very patient with teams carrying low payrolls, there comes a point when even they will start to question just how long this can go on.

Overall folks, I think payroll will stay relatively close to where it was last year, maybe a bit more, but should they have decided to just leave things go and only rely on the system or waiver claims, solid chance it actually would go down.

When you look at a roster that has Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, David Bednar, and a host of promising young talents it’s hard to justify not adding. It’s hard to raise up a core and then openly not support them for in some cases up to 3 or 4 years of their career.

The moves this team makes this off season aren’t going to add up to a World Series, they probably won’t even truly put them in the playoff race. They can make them competitive this year though. They can make it hard to ignore them when you’re a team in the race coming to town. They can make it less of a rarity when they sweep a team. Most nights you should be able to look at the starter and lineup and believe they aren’t locked out of this one before first pitch.

It’s time for that.

You might think this is all so YOU can buy in and I’m sure that’s part of it, but getting some of those young players and core players to buy in, folks, that’s the money shot.

Even if it doesn’t cost much in the end.

3-4 MLB players, still to be added. Sounds crazy, until you consider how crazy not doing it would be in reality.

11-27-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m seeing quite a few people struggling to understand what the Pirates are doing this offseason. For one thing, it requires a bit of nuance, something sorely lacking on social media, and further, it requires a fan base who have had prospects presented to them as the second coming over and over for 3 years to understand, some of them just aren’t ready.

Let’s talk through the needs, why they’re needed, how long they’re needed and what the team is trying to come out of 2023 looking like.

The Goal

Internally, the Pirates are targeting a .500 season. I sincerely doubt this will be publicly stated, anymore than it’s publicly stated when they believe they’ll lose 100 games, but I’ve had that stated to me several times now.

Letting nature take it’s course simply isn’t going to get that done.

Filling the team with veterans could help, but doing so at some positions could ultimately set the entire thing back. Oh, the record would improve in 2023, but the Pirates would also be blocking players who simply have to be part of this long range project.

2023 is what I call a transition year, whereas 2020-2022 were time buying/discovery seasons.

I personally think it’s unnecessary to have years as bad as they put the fans through to get to this point, but that’s also largely beside the point. They’ve already done it this way, and I’m not a cry over spilled milk type.

As we go through the rest of this piece, keep that .500 goal in mind. It really does shade every decision.

Why Add?

On a normal team, in a normal market, this is quite frankly the silliest question you could ask.

Because they don’t have anyone proven at a position. That word, “proven” is important. After all, how does a player get to “proven” if they can’t play because they’re now blocked by a free agent veteran?

The answer, is slowly. Getting opportunity from injury, or performing so well they make it impossible to ignore.

Let’s take first base. They now have Carlos Santana, and Ji-man Choi in the fold. Both of these guys are older veterans, and most would say they’re on the down side of their careers. I’d agree with that for sure.

They’re also guys who’ve played first base in the majors for quite some time, and been productive.

Behind them they’ve acquired Lewin Diaz, another first baseman with some MLB experience, very good glove, tons of power potential that hasn’t made itself apparent at the big league level yet.

And you all know the prospects, Malcom Nunez, freshly acquired from the Cards, power potential, barely reached AAA. Mason Martin, long time heir apparent at first base, tons of power, tons of strikeouts, waning patience. Arron Shackelford, old for his level, never really had a special season, or a skill that has jumped out, but he looks the part.

So they signed two players they believe can help right away, to give the depth behind a chance to push their way onto the roster, and insulate themselves should they not make that happen.

You must understand that prospect development is not super predictable. A clue as to how close the Pirates feel about their prospects is what they do with Rule 5 Protections though. Last year, half of the fan base collectively lost their minds that Mason Martin was left unprotected, and even though many nerds like me were there to point to his K rate as the reason, it was still hard to handle, he does hit some bombs. This year, it was hard to find anyone even whispering his name come protection deadline time.

Nope, this year that went to the next sure fire superstar, Malcom Nunez. Nunez is interesting, has a ton of power, but also doesn’t have a real position. He has primarily played 3B in the Cardinals system, needs work at first and hit a ton of homeruns in a micro minor league ball park.

Look, disagree or not with the evaluations here, the Pirates feel these guys aren’t ready. They feel so strongly they aren’t ready, that they can’t see another team taking them for 100K in the Rule 5 Draft, and even if they do, they can’t fathom them sticking on a roster all season long.

Again, whether you disagree with them or not, by thinking they should just play prospects instead of signing these old guys, is to ask them to ignore their own estimation of these players and enter a season with them as the options.

That said, they at least think between those prospects listed, or other prospects looking for a place to fit the bat first base is also not a spot they want to plug for the long term.

We’ll find much the same when they address catcher. Endy is probably ready, and without getting into a whole Super 2 BS conversation here, even if they didn’t care about that at all, nobody wants to start a season with a rookie and a waiver claim for a tandem back there. They’ll have to add, and they do that both for the pitchers, the lineup and yes, the prospect themselves.

Rushing a kid into service at a responsible position like that with nothing to fall back on, well, it winds up looking pretty close to what we saw last year after the one vet they signed was lost almost immediately.

That’s why you add from outside, and specifically why this type of veteran. If they perform and the prospects don’t, you know you have to do much the same next year. If they perform and so do the prospects, you probably let them start to take over, and move at least one of them come deadline time. If neither perform, you probably look to find someone more permanent next year.

Where to Add

Before 2022 was even over, we knew these positions.

First base was obvious. Starting pitcher, specifically left handed and Catcher.

They could add an outfielder too, but that’s also a position where they have so many prospects who’ve at least made the league it might be smart to just let it play out.

If they don’t add a Starting pitcher they’ll have no left handed starters, and they’ll be forced to rely on players like Bryse Wilson, Zach Thompson or Luis Ortiz to fill out the rotation.

Luis in particular might appeal to many of you, I like him quite a bit myself, but he needs to work on a few things. We all saw his first 3 games where he was simply unhittable, that’s in there for sure, but we also saw his 4th game where nothing he threw over the plate got to the glove.

That’s a young player for you, and success is on the razor’s edge. Don’t quite have one pitch operating at optimal performance and boom the house of cards collapses.

He must refine his off speed options, and while I fully believe he will, MLB isn’t the place to do that. It may be by a month in, but from the jump, man that’s not a bet I’d make, especially if I actually want to hit that .500 goal.

Conclusion

In general, this part of a rebuild is often difficult for fans. You’re preached to for years that all these game changing talents are coming, and right when they’re on the doorstep the team suddenly seems to want to go get old guys instead.

You just watched them play countless kids who had just a little experience and some of them figured some things out so why stop now?

It’s really all about giving some of those success stories a chance to experience a bit of team success. It’s about greasing the skids a bit instead of handing them the keys and assuming they know what the pedals do.

When you mentally as an organization flip the switch from overt evaluation only mode to the hybrid stage 2023 will bring, you start to prioritize big league outcomes more than forcing prospects into action.

We will see a ton of young players make their debuts again in 2023, but this year, we won’t likely be feeling held hostage waiting for their arrival. If Quinn Priester makes the club in 2023, it’s going to be because he’s ready for a shot, not because they have nobody else. If Nick Gonzales makes it this year, it’s not likely going to be because Ji-hwan Bae & Rodolfo Castro both bombed out, it’ll be because he’s a number one pick who has shown he’s ready for his chance.

I’ve been telling you since 2019 the conversations were going to change at some point, and that’s what 2023 is in my mind.

I’m not saying we suddenly stop looking to the prospects, that’s silly, most of the top talent they’ve acquired isn’t even here yet, but I am saying it’s time to realize they’re in a different stage now and how their paths evolve from here is not the same as the group before them.

There are now expectations for how the big club does, not just their importance to the future.

11-23-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As we prepare to roast the turkey, chop the veggies, stir the casseroles and mix up the cocktails for Thanksgiving dinner, there is another thing a dude like me simply has to add to my plate.

Everyone in my family or friend group knows all about the Pirates work I do, and the questions I’ll get every year are pretty predictable. So predictable that I can actually answer them now, lol.

Let’s go through some of them, and for the sake of effect, I’m going to try as hard as possible to phrase them exactly as I’ll get them. This is every gathering, 4th of July, Birthdays, dinner just to catch up, it hardly matters.

1. Saw they traded Newman, when will they stop trading all their stars?

Stars, AKA Guys I’ve heard of.

Newman will be the topic this year, last year it was Frazier, or Joe. Regardless, my choices are simple. If it’s someone who I know just wants to bust my balls, my answer is just “never”. If it’s someone who genuinely thought trading Newman is about dumping salary (yes, they exist), I might take a swing at explaining why Newman was easily expendable. Most of the time though, my answer is that there will never be a year, no matter how good they get where someone isn’t a trade candidate.

Without extensions, Mitch Keller will be on the block as early as next off season, Brubaker too. You have to understand when explaining this stuff to people who don’t follow it as closely as you all do, that all the underlying stuff you don’t feel like you have to explain anymore, is 100% not known by whomever asked it. If you open this can of worms, prepare to not taste your turkey for a minute.

2. Gar, Why don’t you just tell people they’ll never win with Nutting?

Sigh.

For one thing, it’s sports, anything can happen. This is my favorite go to if I’m honest. Then if pushed I’ll say, even if that were true, why would anyone listen or read what I have to say if the conclusion is already written?

If you want a real answer, 2013-2015. It may be nothing more than blind squirrel finding a nut, but it happened, and 2 of those teams were good enough to make it happen if things had fallen right. Even with this crappy owner. Kinda hard for me to say it’s impossible when it literally came close to happening not a decade ago.

Bottom line, the market isn’t great for the structure of the game, and the owner makes it even harder, but it can still happen. If it was completely out of the question, I’d quit doing what I do, and probably stop watching. For instance, if MLB ever went to a soccer style relegation style where they broke into two leagues of the haves and have nots, I’m out. No shot at glory, no shot I’m watching.

3. I mean, Gar, they’ve been rebuilding since 1980

Uhh, ok.

Most of the time I just say yes. That usually let’s them have their moment of trying to get under my skin and shortens the exchange. A really froggy inquisitor will follow that after sensing my sarcasm with tell me when they weren’t rebuilding then!

I mean, it really is simple. From 80-84 they were trying to just introduce new players into a shell of few remaining champions. 85-89 full rebuild which resulted in 90-93. 94 they thought they still had enough to try and learned they didn’t. 95-2007 a rebuild was attempted a couple times, then simply signing competent players was tried, neither got them anywhere.

2008-2012, full rebuild that resulted in 2013-2015. Much like 94 they thought they had enough to make a go of 2016, and were wrong. 2017-2018, a retool was attempted, but simply wasn’t happening. 2019-Now, full rebuild.

So yes, most of the time they’ve been rebuilding. It sucks. Any other questions?

It’s like, I don’t want to just say wrong, but technically, it’s wrong. Let me eat my pie!

4. This Cruz guy reminds me of Polanco

Here’s the truth, he’s tall and Dominican, aside from that, not a whole lot of tangible things to compare.

He’s not the “baby giraffe” you saw in the outfield. He’s not a lock to be a short stop his entire career either, but my goodness, look around this league, if you can manage to have a freak like that at SS, a whole lot starts to come together.

He’s a genuine reason to be excited. Watch him play one game, you’ll see him do something you haven’t seen done.

Cruz will come up a whole lot. I went with comparing him to Polanco, but just as easily I’ll get asked when he’s getting traded.

The best answer to that is not yet. But being a Pirates fan you know the answer. He either gets extended or he’s on the block come 2027, if they’re in the race they let him walk after he runs through his team control.

Yea, I know, rinse and repeat right? Here’s the deal, you say that you help with the dishes alright?

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Stay safe and enjoy your loved ones, even if they try to bust your balls.