5-31-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Despite a rough month where the Pirates have won just 9 of 27 games, the team will look to end May on a high note against the struggling former Cy Young-winner, Dylan Cease.
Cease enters play today with a 1-3 record and 4.58 ERA through 11 games, striking out 72 batters while walking 20 over his 59 innings pitched.
Despite the Padres prevailing in the last matchup with Cease as starter, the Bucs managed to hold him to his shortest outing of the year as he pitched only 4 innings and allowed 2 runs off 3 hits, 3 walks and a hit batter with 3 strikeouts – however, Cease has been looking closer to his old self since that outing, posting a 3.20 ERA with a 33/5 K:BB ratio in his last 4 games.
I detailed his pitch mix last time around but this time, I want to focus on what he has done to try to determine what he will do today.
In that game against Pittsburgh on May 2nd, Cease leaned heavily on his high-80s slider (59% versus season average of 49.3%) and less so on his mid-90s fastball (32%, 36.5% on the season) with a low-80s knuckle-curve comprising the remaining pitches thrown.
The slider is already his preferred primary pitch but, even knowing that, the Pirates struggled to make contact consistently on the offering.
All 10 of his whiffs generated were against the slider but the Bucs did make contact on occasion when he hung them up in the zone.
As you can see from the graph, Cease mostly drops the slider down low/off the plate as occasionally will bounce them in the left-handed hitter’s batter box. He can, at times, miss his spots and hang pitches up in the zone as indicated by the pitch Reynolds was able to drill to right field for an RBI single.
A big piece of the Pirates success – or, as indicated yesterday, failure – is their awareness of the strike-zone as the team’s chase rate against Cease was 37% (38.7% is average for opponents against Cease’s slider) but with a 45% contact rate (29.6% is the season average).
For comparison’s sake, here is how the Braves performed against Cease his last time out
So, in these situations where Cease is throwing his slider, the Pirates were seeing the spin early enough and identifying whether or not it will be in the zone – or close enough – to merit swinging.
Given Cease’s proclivity for relying on a slider/fastball mix (only 8 of his 88 pitches thrown his last time out came from his other offerings), Bucs bats need to hold to high heat and hanging sliders.
He’s still prone to fits of wildness and the Pittsburgh offense needs to be wary of this to take advantage of free passes once again but honing in on one of these two pitches could pay dividends if the Pirates are able to get a good enough piece of the ball.
5-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
We finally saw what happens when everything is clicking for this Pirates offense as they scored 19 runs over the final 13 innings of the series against the Diamondbacks. If they can get even close to that level of production, with this pitching, they’ll have a chance in any game. They will start off with a tough foe out of the gate in Nick Pivetta, who enters play tonight with a 5-2 record, 2.72 ERA and 63 Ks in 56.1 innings of work this season.
I wrote about Pivetta previously a few weeks ago before the Padres switched to start Stephen Kolek so let’s cover the BIG parts here:
First of all, Pivetta has some drastic home/away splits. Now, it logically follows that he would find more success leaving the hitter-friendly confines Citizens Bank or Fenway Parks, and moving to a home run-suppressing stadium like Petco.
After all, Pivetta has allowed 20+ long-balls in each full season (2020 excluded) and ranked 5th in home runs among all pitchers since his debut in 2017 – and, among those names ahead of him, no one was accomplishing the rate of round-trippers as efficiently as Pivetta.
By contrast, moving to the west coast has clearly provided the correct environment for Pivetta to succeed as his home ERA (1.44) is nearly three runs better than his away mark (4.32) as he has allowed twice as many home runs outside of San Diego in less innings pitched.
On the season, he has allowed more than 3 earned runs once (oddly, against the offense-deficient Colorado Rockies on 5/11) but in 6 of his 10 games has pitched 6+ innings with 1 or less runs allowed.
He’s among the best in MLB for both WHIP and batting average against so getting on base against him will be a challenge if the team can’t continue their momentum from the series in the southwest.
As mentioned before, Pivetta works an arsenal that uses a low-90s 4-seam fastball with a high-70s curve against lefties while mixing a low-80s sweeper and high-80s cutter as his main secondaries when facing righties.
Looking at specific matchups, lefties should look to attack Pivetta’s hanging curve. I typically advise hunting heat, especially when it’s thrown as frequently as is the case here (54.5%) but lefty opponents are batting a staggering .093 against Pivetta’s heater while striking out 19 times against the pitch. On the other hand, his curve has a .229 oBA but a .299 xoBA with a whiff rate nearly half of what the fastball generates (14.3% compared to 27.7%).
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) April 12, 2025
Righties likely should hold to the heater up as they are batting .260 and slugging .500 against the offering, which Pivetta has typically located middle-up in the zone.
The strategy and venue may be changing but the goal is still the same. Pivot to finding ways to do damage against this starter because the Padre bullpen is much more effective that what we saw from the DBacks in the desert.
The Pirates travel to San Diego this weekend to take on the Padres. The Padres have been on an interesting run as of late. They are winners of 4 out of their last 6. Pretty good, right? However, they lost all of the previous 6 games to this little hot streak. So in their last 12 games, they are 4 – 8. Also, in these previous 12 games, they have only given up fewer than 3 runs twice. So, teams have been able to score off of them. On the other hand, their offense has not been as dominant as you would think, with them scoring 3.08 runs in those 12 games. So, it should be interesting to see what version of the Padres we will get this time.
The Pirates are coming off one of, if not their most, exciting series victories of the year, with the 7-run inning on Tuesday and the 10-run attack on Wednesday behind a dominant start by Skenes. This week for the Bucs has looked, dare I say, decent, with them being 6-4 in their last 10 games. And it seems as if they are finally getting the monkey off their back, which was scoring more than 4 runs in a game. They have scored more than 4 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. This could be a blip, but the offense overall has looked better as of late. Especially as June is just around the corner, Reynolds (who consistently does well in June), joining MVP Cruz, there may be something here. (fingers crossed).
Pirates: Henry Davis – You heard that right. Henry Davis has been hot of late. In his last seven games, he is hitting .400 with an OPS of 1.078. His defense has been excellent, too, with two caught stealing recently. He has adjusted his stance slightly, which seems to have paid off. Is this him breaking out? Here’s hoping, because a good Davis would be a massive boost to this team.
Padres: Gavin Sheets – Sheets has been red hot over the past seven games. He is batting .276 in that stretch with 5 HRs and 11 RBIs. And in a lineup featuring Machado and Tatis, getting that kind of production out of Sheets is unfair to opposing pitchers.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – Ke is 4 for his last 34, which results in a .117 average. Despite the rest of the lineup starting to click, Hayes has kept to his non-hitting ways. A quick check of his BaseballSavant page doesn’t make you feel any better, as the only thing positive about his plate appearances is that he is squaring balls up. So, if there is a silver lining, there is that.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – El Niño has cooled off in May after his amazing start to the season. He is batting .188 with 25 Ks and an OPS of .642. His power is still there, but he is getting fooled a lot more than usual right now, so hopefully, that can continue against the Bucs.
Pirates: Joey Bart, Johan Oviedo, Nick Gonzales, Colin Holderman, Hunter Barco, Justin Lawrence, Jared Jones, Enmanuel Valdez, Dauri Moreta, Tim Mayza
Padres: Bryan Hoeing, Matt Waldron, Yu Darvish, Michael King, Jason Heyward, Mason McCoy, Joe Musgrove, Ethan Salas, Jhony Brito, Luis Patino, Logan Gillaspie
Notes
Oneil Cruz leads the NL in stolen bases. I’d like to see him use his speed now that Reynolds is in prime form.
This series includes a Padres staff having difficulty containing runs and a Pirates team scoring better recently. Will these trends continue? I hope they do.
Keep an eye out for some news about Nick Gonzales this weekend.
5-28-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After an improbable comeback victory last night, the Pirates will look to keep the good vibes rolling today as they send Paul Skenes to the mound to face Zac Gallen.
Just two years removed from being a Cy Young finalist, Gallen has tumbled quite a bit statistically, entering today with a 5.25 ERA, 1.36 WHIP with 10 home runs and an NL-leading 29 walks and 36 earned runs allowed.
Gallen picked up the win against the Bucs last time they faced each other on July 26th, allowing just 3 runs off 5 hits, 3 walks and 1 hit batter while striking out six.
Over his 11 starts so far, Gallen has allowed 3 or more runs in 7 of them but despite having the 3rd worst ERA among qualified starting pitchers in the NL, he has a solid-not-spectacular 4.27 xFIP which could indicate some poor luck overall.
That said, the underlying metrics aren’t favorable for Gallen returning to his ace form as he is essentially average or below average in nearly every observable category.
Gallen’s pitch mix primarily consists of a low-90s 4-seam and a looping knuckle-curve which sits around 81. He adds in a changeup, slider and cutter that all average mid-to-high-80s.
While Gallen hasn’t seen a drop in velocity, his fastball is becoming less and less effective at missing bats as his strikeout rate on the offering has dropped from 27.9% in 2022 to 18.3% this season. His curve, on the other hand, continues to be nearly unhittable with a 50% K rate on the season thus far.
The caveat on that is that much of those strikeouts – as seen above – are the result of hitters chasing under the zone. And when opposing hitters are able to identify and spit on the pitch (15.6% walk rate on the offering), he basically has nothing else.
Hitters today will want to target the fastball and watch for early spin/movement to lay off the curve. He’ll throw the fastballs up and the breaking/offspeed down but the path to success is taking walks when you can but if you’re seeing red, be ready to attack.
5-27-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After being shutout for the MLB-worst ninth time yesterday, the Bucs look colder than cold and have a tough task ahead of them as they face former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is in his first season with the Diamondbacks after signing a 6-year, $210M deal this past offseason but the Bucs are plenty familiar with the long-time Brewer, who has faced off with Pittsburgh 11 times previously and has a 3.53 ERA over 81.2 career innings against the Pirates during his time in the NL Central.
Traded from Milwaukee last offseason, Burnes had a successful contract year with the Baltimore Orioles, posting a 15-9 record and a 2.92 ERA through 194.1 innings with an All Star appearance and 5th place Cy Young finish.
He had a sluggish start to his DBacks campaign as he allowed 13 runs over his first 21.1 innings of work as he adjusted to the new park, teammates and division.
Over his last five starts – two of which were against the powerhouse LA Dodgers – Burnes has rebounded in spades as he pitched 31.1 innings with a 1.44 ERA and 34 strikeouts over that stretch.
While Burnes is currently pacing for a typical year (2.73 ERA over 52.2 innings), the underlying metrics indicate there likely is some regression on the horizon.
Qualified pitchers since April 24
For example, Burnes is walking opponents at a higher rate than at any time in his career (10.6%) and his WHIP has subsequently followed as his 1.18 WHIP – while very good – is his highest since 2019 when he was almost exclusively pitching in relief.
His xERA (3.93), FIP (4.04) and xFIP (3.72) are all at or among his worst full season marks while his average exit velocity (90.6 MPH) and barrel rate (8.6%) are substantially higher than last season (87.5 MPH and 6.7%, respectively) making his .246 BABIP less sustainable than it would have been in years past.
Looking at his pitch mix, Burnes is a rare case where he opts to throw his cut-fastball as his primary offering (53.6%) in the mid-90s, a pitch which replaced his ineffective 4-seam in the shortened 2020 season to great success.
He complements it with a low-80s curve/high-80s changeup down and away against lefties and pivots to a mid-90s sinker/high-80s slider when facing righties, working the sinker down and in while locating the slider low and off the plate outside in these instances.
Only his curve has expected values higher than his base numbers so lefties should try to avoid chasing the pitch but targeting the cutter in (.284 xBA for LHH) or hanging changeups (.325 xBA). On the other side of the plate, righties should focus on the sinker down and in (.317 xBA) or just look to attack the cutter (3 home runs and a .515 SLG against the pitch.
Righties have been having more success against Burnes with a .703 OPS compared to .606 for left handed hitters but his career numbers are more even (.603 OPS against LHH/.623 OPS vs RHH) so it’s more about targeting specific pitches and trying to make the most of mistakes.
Burnes has been able to outperform his expected numbers in the past but, sooner or later, Father Time comes for all. If the Bucs can bust out of their offensive rut and put some fire in their bats, maybe it can be Corbin feeling the burn tonight.
The Diamondbacks are coming off losing 5 of 6 to the Dodgers and Cardinals and the Pirates won 4 of 7 facing the Brewers and Reds.
The Snakes are one game under .500, and should be given some grace for being in the division they play in, but this early in the season, your division tends to not be a good thing to point to. The way the schedule tends to work, you haven’t particularly played your division foes more than anyone else really and even if you have, it’s not so disproportionate that you believe an advantage or disadvantage is really present.
Pirates: Adam Frazier is hotter than the fires of hell right now. In his last 15 he’s hitting .311, with an OBP of .392 and Slugging .378. Unexpected production is difference making production.
Diamondbacks: Eugenio Suarez is familiar to Pirates fans from his time with the Reds, and we all remember how many homeruns he hit back then when he went off. Well, he’s at it again, and in his last 15 he’s hitting .304, OBP of 3.59 and slugging .589 with 4 homeruns. Suarez does come with swing and miss, but he’s cut that down a bit too.
Pirates: Joey Bart has quietly struggled. It’s easier to hide when the entire lineup is cold, but in his past 15 he’s batting .204, with an OBP of .246 and only slugging .222.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll has really struggled much of this year, but his past 15, .200 average, 2.73 OBP and if Carroll isn’t getting on base, he’s simply not productive.
Pirates: Nick Gonzales has not appeared in a game since last Sunday after being hit in the hand in his first rehab appearance in Indy. Hunter Barco is day to day with a shoulder strain. Colin Holderman has thumb tenosynovitis, and will see a specialist while here in Arizona.
Diamondbacks: Eduardo Rodriguez on the 15 day IL just completed a 55 pitch sim game and is looking to work his way back.
5-26-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After a successful home-stand which ended on a bit of a sour note, the Bucs head to the Copper State to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have Ryne Nelson on the bump for the first game of the set.
The Pirates battered Nelson a bit last time they faced-off on August 4th, getting to him for 4 runs off 6 hits, 2 walks, a hit batter and 7 strikeouts over 5 innings of work.
Nelson has fluttered between starting and long relief this season with much more time spent on the latter. He enters the day with a 4.60 ERA over 31.1 innings but has had considerably more success as a starter (2.89 ERA) than in relief (5.32 ERA), albeit in a small sample size.
Much of Nelson’s success comes from his mid-90s 4-seam fastball that can touch 98 and he goes to the offering nearly 60% of the time. The pitch plays up due to his above-average extension resulting in the 95-97 velocity actually looking closer to 98-100 from the hitter’s perspective. He’ll mix in a low-90s cutter, mid-80s slider and change with a low-80s curve but primarily will hold to fastball against hitters from both sides of the plate.
Nelson has had some control issues and struggles to throw his secondary offerings for strikes but has historically been much better (6.7% career walk rate) and fills up the zone with his fastball, which has resulted in a 71% strike rate.
His success with the pitch has been especially fruitful against lefties, who are batting a meager .184 against the offering, while righties are modestly better with a .216 clip against the pitch.
Lefties have done statistically worse against Nelson (.176 batting average compared to .239 for righties) but underlying numbers indicate that Ryne has gotten lucky in those instances as lefties are striking out at just a 20.3% rate (25.4% for righties) but have a .189 BABIP and 90.8 MPH average exit velocity off the fastball.
Gear up for the heater high in the zone or breaking balls that catch too much of the plate. The Snakes have a tough lineup so the Bucco offense needs to continue the outburst from this past weekend to get the road trip started on a hot note.
The Pirates just played a couple good series against division foes who find themselves in much the same situation, struggling more than they thought they would for one reason or another. The Bucs proved last week that this division is close, at least as it comes to head to head.
I’ll say this. Watching what this team looked like in these two series, that was a lot more entertaining than how the season started. It doesn’t make it go away or not matter somehow, but it does at least say when healthy, it’s probably better than they played the majority of this season.
Lets Go!
1. Oneil Cruz is Butterflying Before Our Very Eyes
I hear declarations all the time. And I mean from my side of things, the pundit, the podcaster, writer, fake journo, side. Final decisions of who stinks and who doesn’t thrown so quickly at subject after subject, player after player, coach after coach, and as soon as it happens, you just know most of them aren’t going to just change their mind and come off their brilliant initial decision they put out there already.
It’s rare to hear it done. I mean you’ll get a “let’s laugh at my bad take” thing here and there, but let’s say you decided Oneil Cruz is a selfish and stupid person with a penchant for laziness on top of it. and you made it your primary attack on all the bad you were seeing early on with the Pirates.
That’ll rarely be acknowledged.
The good things he does will get talked about, and eventually you’ll forget for the most part just how many terrible things were said.
I’ve really liked watching the evolution of Oneil Cruz, and specifically this year but we’ll think all the way back to last because that’s really where it started.
Recovering from his season ending injury it took Cruz time to find his stride at the plate, and struggling to field the only position he’s truly played as a professional, while managing the pain of breaking up all that scar tissue.
2024, Oneil Cruz was not 100% himself, in almost any way imaginable. Still, he learned, and he changed, but it took so long into the season that many felt he simply wouldn’t ever reach his ceiling.
Just didn’t pay enough attention, ya know?
This year, Cruz has been the only bat going for almost the entire season, and is currently on a roll that really starts your mind racing about what could be for this exciting young player.
11 homeruns already, 18 stolen bases, quickly adapting to centerfield despite still making some mistakes, he’s the straw that stirs the drink here, and every bit as important to anything this team is trying to do as Paul Skenes.
He’s also a much more pressing extension this team should actively be trying to achieve. Unfortunately, they happen to have a lame duck GM who probably doesn’t have the sway or latitude to try to approach it.
2. Call Up Scenarios
Different strokes for different folks as the great Muhammad Ali once said describing his varied fighting styles.
Well, when prospects get called up to the Majors is just as varied. Today, let’s talk a bit about some of them, and you feel free to apply them to whomever you want, like Liover Peguero, Malcom Nunez, Nick Yorke, Bubba Chandler, whoever at all.
Ready but Blocked – This is a prospect who has just about done everything they can in AAA, but defensively they’re hard to use unless the perfect injury situation pops up or the player blocking them could potentially use taking a seat or being pushed by a youngster. Now, if this is a top prospect, a number one pick, well, good chance someone is moving positions, either him or the player blocking him, but that can be a work in progress. Could have to make a deal and just trust the rookie too at some point. This one is frowned upon if the team is supposedly trying to compete, cause it’s risky. It’s why it’s hard for teams like the Yankees to onboard The Martian or Volpe, or the Dodgers with Lux. They just don’t have time or patience to deal with what it takes to make it work. Evan as they remember the successes like Jeter or Smith. Still, it’s a dance.
Should be Ready, but Sputtering – If you were a 3rd or 4th round pick or later, forget it. You’re Matt Gorski until such a time as you show up in a big way or the team is so desperate for help due to injury that their hand is forced. And even then, let’s be real, you’re probably already doing as much as you can, but you didn’t arrive when you were supposed to, and sometimes that makes a team go out and get someone to help at the big league level, and some teams actually sign those guys to more than one year, I know, crazy right? There are times where this works out just fine, for both the player and the team, it takes them a bit longer, the team gives them a bit longer, win win. Sometimes though, it’s just never that simple, the fit just never works, the timing is always off for whatever reason, and for some reason a waiver claim reliever is always a more important spot on the 40-man.
Super 2! – Everyone’s favorite. First off, it’s not all that big of a deal. Just a lame excuse. Squeezing every last drop of juice from a lemon instead of cutting an extra one open. The financial gain is minimal, the timing is always suspicious, and here’s the thing, the timing is also suspiciously close to the 2 solid months in the minors most teams like to see. Perfect camouflage for subterfuge right? Listen, this was exploited to hell and back for years and years, and MLB tried to fix it with new incentives for calling up players earlier, but what’s really happened is, MLB execs have largely learned that some guys are ready faster, and it’s ok to strike while the iron is hot. Super 2 is a thing, it’s just not nearly the thing it used to be, and as you’re reading, there are other reasons for it. The other side of this, very few players are really in this conversation. Bubba Chandler is, Top prospect, seemingly ready, but good luck proving it’s not about the walks, or pitch counts to get through 5 innings. But, you don’t hear it about say, Braxton Ashcraft. I love reminding people, Jacob Stallings was Super 2. LOL
As Ready As They’ll be, but… – This is a hard one to swallow. The traditional guy who can’t possibly be worse than the worst player on your team. This one always comes down to things like, wanting to get the guy regular at bats, even as you watch guys who stink get way too many at bats for your favorite team. And it is usually a guy who hasn’t had a chance yet or got a brief chance and looked pretty good, or at least had one memorable hit. Perfect example, Matt Gorski and Tommy Pham and for what it’s worth, this is one that almost all teams mess up with regularity. Or, maybe more accurately, they don’t bother to try in the first place. You can’t block a punch with a piece of paper, and you shouldn’t block even a prospect like this with a corpse with a resume.
That’s enough for today, but you know, there are plenty more.
3. Can This Coaching Staff Survive a GM Shakeup?
I typically think no, but this one kind of feels different. This one seems to first off be doing a pretty good job of at the very least taking most of the same pieces and getting better results than his predecessor.
I don’t get the impression this whole thing was exactly Cherington’s idea and I’m almost damn sure it wasn’t his choice to get Gene Lamont back here to act as Don’s bench coach either. Does that feel like it could possibly fit in the analytics to coach structure they’d built?
Is the team playing or making decisions that make you feel like Chat GPT was making the calls? It feels more driven by feel, at least informed feel and that’s not a bad thing.
They’ve imported the manager from AAA to help translate the message for prospects as they transition as well as help clean up the fielding issues that had become rampant.
They already look more crisp and prepared.
I’m not sure if Ben Cherington can do anything to save his job at this point, but I’m at least a little swayed that this coaching staff could potentially outlast him. Long season left of course, and there’s a really good chance this team starts stripping this version of the team down for parts, Bednar, Ferguson, Borucki, IKF, Heaney, Frazier, and Pham, those types, well, I’m saying his job isn’t necessarily going to get easier.
Sure, Bubba, Harrington, Ashcraft, Burrows, Gonzales, Yorke, Cooke, and your other favorites like Endy, Jack and Bae could all have to step in and they could be better but let’s be real, if the playoffs aren’t in sight, it would be lunacy to not deal what you can deal, and they won’t be. This team could be playing better for a while, but I still think the job could get harder before it gets easier, with or without Cherington.
4. What to do with Endy
Endy Rodriguez has been on his rehab assignment, and soon the word will come that he’s being transferred off the IL, but where will he land, what will they do with him, and what should we expect?
Well, shit guys, I don’t know. I don’t know if anyone does.
He isn’t just going to come back up here to backup 1st base, I mean Spencer Horwitz is the starter, and even if he platoons, that’s not normally enough at bats for a kid. He could replace Henry as the backup, but man, Henry has really become a story defensively and at some point, you have to keep that skill set in the league, think of how much priority this team places on defensive catching. This is a team that has signed Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, and as starters. I just don’t see Henry going anywhere, if anything I see him playing more and more.
Endy has played second base, but not recently, and he’s played some outfield but only a little and not really since Greensboro.
So I don’t know. I’m not sure even where I’d play him in AAA to give him a direct path. If there’s an injury to first base or catcher, he’s the first call. If you start pissing with him and try getting him ready for the OF, well, do you hurt his ability to step in at the other spots? Does the bat end up trumping everything and you just have to find a spot?
This one is going to have to play out, I have no clue or indication how it will but I’m fascinated.
5. Captain America is Over it
Paul Skenes is a winner, and he has chosen to play for winners when given the choice. First, he chose the Air Force, and then he chose LSU. But as in most North American Sports leagues, he was not given a choice as to where his first MLB home might be.
That said, the assumption that he’s immediately looking to jump ship, I think they’ve dismissed the fighter in him. The guy who knows if he can do it here it’ll mean a lot more than if he does it where it’s expected.
The guy who knows he just signed up for a fight but thinks he has a lot of what it’ll take to win against the odds.
Don’t get me wrong, I know the PR game, and I’m intentionally not using his quotes recently to prove my point, I’m simply saying, this player, he knows how hard it’ll be here, and he knows it’s in part because they could never afford someone like him on the open market.
I think early on, it’s easy for kids like him to believe they can make it different, bend things to their will, make change possible by their mere existence. At some point, they either grow frustrated that it’s gone the way it has or it becomes clear all the promise of things to come never came, but at this stage, it’s fair and safe to believe the kid when he tells you he wants to win and do it right here.
That doesn’t mean a whole lot honestly. It doesn’t change where the team is or how much they have to do to be ready to support such an idea, but it does mean, at least for now, let’s stop paying attention to all the BS trade stuff for Skenes.
The team said no. The player said no. And honestly, they’d be fools to say or do anything different.
5-25-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Heading into the final game of the homestead with a shot at taking 3 of 4 from the rival Brewers, the Pirates have been riding high on some late-game heroics.
While they need to find a way to break-through against starting pitchers, runs may be tough to find today as they are facing Milwaukee’s 12th ranked prospect, Logan Henderson, who has been nearly untouchable in his first three MLB starts as he is 3-0 in those games, pitching 16 innings with 9 hits, 4 walks and 23 strikeouts in that stretch.
Henderson was a 4th round pick for the Brewers in 2021 out of a junior college in Texas and almost had his career derailed as he went down with an elbow surgery in 2022 after pitching just 13.2 innings.
He returned in late 2023 and, after a slight delay to 2024 due to an oblique strain, began his ascension as he sprinted through the season, spending the last 6 games at AAA with the Nashville Sound.
The 23-year old righty has benefitted from the dearth of injuries ailing the Brew Crew rotation but has made the most of his time with the club and has certainly earned several more turns.
After allowing 5 runs off 6 hits in his first minor league start this season, Henderson has allowed 4 or less hits and 2 or less runs in each of his 8 starts since between the minors and majors with a combined 2.15 ERA over 46 total innings this year.
Henderson has a 5-pitch mix but mostly uses a low-90s 4-seam with ride up in the zone and a low-80s changeup the cuts down to the glove-side.
He technically also has a high-80s cutter that he’ll add in against lefties with a low-90s sinker and low-80s slider when facing righties but the fastball/changeup combo has comprised of 86.5% of his total pitches thrown in the majors this season so those should be the focus today.
His throwing motion creates a whip-like snap to the pitch where the fastball appears to attack the hitter quicker than expected while the changeup comes in almost surprisingly slow, catching hitters in between.
This is a big reason why hitters are batting just .174 against his fastball and an even worse .136 on the changeup.
It’s still a small sample size, sure, but with hitters whiffing at a 32%+ clip on each of these offerings, it will be about watching for the spin (horizontal is changeup, vertical is fastball) but, if not, picking a pitch and quadrant of the zone, thinking positive and hoping to run into one.
Because, with Logan, hitting begins where your imagination ends – or something like that.
5-24-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Game 3 of the weekend series with the Brewers and the Pirates will see the return of former Bucco, Quinn Priester – who was dealt at last year’s deadline to the Boston Red Sox before being flipped to the Brewers last month.
Drafted in the 1st round of the 2019 draft, Priester was a consensus top 100 prospect in MLB just a few short seasons ago but struggled to make the transition to MLB with a career 5.79 ERA over 138.1 major league innings pitched over the past three years and three different teams – compared to 4.14 ERA through 193.1 innings through parts of 4 years in AAA.
He enters with a 4.66 ERA over 38.2 innings and while he has become proficient at generating ground-balls and a typically low exit velocity, he has really struggled with most every other aspect of his game – specifically with regards to strikeouts and walks where he is among the worst in MLB.
Minimum 30 IP
Priester has completely eliminated the 4-seamer from his repertoire of previous seasons due to ineffectiveness but still offers a low-90s sinker and mid-80s slider most of the time against right handed hitters and replacing the slider with a low-90s cutter and low-80s curve when facing lefties.
While the slider has been an excellent weapon for Priester (.568 OPS against), his other options have been far less successful.
For example, lefties are CRUSHING his cutter, batting .357 and slugging .571 against the offering while righties have hit .275 against his sinker with an even higher expected batting average at .303.
Quinn struggles to locate the sinker, typically hanging it up in the zone but has been more effective spotting the slider running down and away against righties. He’ll mix the cutter high and tight against lefties with the curve running outside and low to get swings-and-misses.
Key for hitters today will be patience at the plate, watch for the spin early to avoid the breaking stuff and target the high sinkers, which he threw nearly 55% last outing.
As much as we here at Steel City Pirates hope Quinn has a long and successful career outside of Pittsburgh, here’s hoping it *ONLY* happens outside of Pittsburgh.
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