Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-21-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Busy week here at Inside the Bucs Basement! Craig wrote a killer piece on the Arizona Fall League. Corey and Justin wrote about the possibility of David Bednar being moved, and you all responded with the biggest numbers we’ve pulled since July.

Let’s do it again!

Things certainly aren’t going to slow down, even on Thanksgiving week.

Should I go with a Turkey Day theme? LOL, of course I should.

Let’s go!

1. Plenty of Leftovers?

After all the roster moves that led up to Non-Tender day and preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, the Pirates roster sits exactly at 40.

Now, should we get to Spring like that (we won’t and I’ll explain as we go) some players like Max Kranick will wind up on the 60-day IL and clear up a spot.

Right now though, I feel the need to explain to everyone what having a full roster means right now. For one thing, they can’t really participate in the Rule Five Draft.

They can’t just DFA someone to create space either, that’s not how this works. To create room, they physically have to make a trade if they want to splash in this pool.

So before December 7th (R5 Draft Day), I fully expect them to pull a trade.

I know they have issues with the roster that are painfully obvious, 2 catchers, one who hasn’t played more than a handful of games at AAA and one who was a waiver claim, no left handed pitchers, look, they’re going to have to deal with those, but that doesn’t have to happen by the 7th, and could be addressed by simply DFAing some of those leftovers. This is specifically in order for them to use their 3rd pick in this draft.

Has to be a specific kind of move too. Can’t be returning a bunch of guys some other team didn’t protect. can’t really be MLB ready unless it’s a 2 for 1 type situation.

Honestly, it’s a bit of an unforced error if you ask me. They can get a relatively free bullpen arm from a plentiful group, and if they don’t make a move, they’ll be forced to just sit and watch it go by.

When you look at the 40-man it’s no longer loaded with guys you just want to flush. Ryan Vilade is easy for most but let’s be real, it’s mostly because we don’t know him. Hoy Park seems like the closest to a no brainer on the roster to me, but all in all, it’s not loaded with junk like many years passed.

At the very least, I can honestly say out of that 40, 37 or 38 of them I wouldn’t mind seeing a bit more from.

This trade, if it happens, is going to come from 3 spots. Middle infield (Castillo, Marcano, Park, Peguero), Lefty Outfielders (Mitchell, Swaggerty, Smith-Njigba, Marcano), Fringe Starters/Pen (Underwood, Stephenson, Wilson, Yajure, Ramirez, Mears)

Feels like it has to be from that grouping. Feels like it has to happen too. Keep those eyes open.

2. Familee Gathering?

The Pirates probably weren’t looking to have this news broken, but when asked directly if they planned to have Piratefest this year by Rob Biertempfel.

This hurts my soul.

The Pirates have a dwindling season ticket holder base and Piratefest has always been the best outreach event they’ve had short of a successful season.

As many of you told me when I vented online about this development, even if it isn’t true, it smells a whole lot like they don’t want to face fans and if that is indeed the case, all I can really say is why?

If they believe in what they’re doing and truly think this is the best way to bring winning baseball back to Pittsburgh as they claim it is. Stand there confidently and explain it.

I remember as a young employee, my boss at the time saw me struggling to explain a decision he had made. That’s kinda how middle management works sometimes, you have to deliver the company message, or explain why choices were made that you probably didn’t make or even play a role in.

He looked at me and said, this is on me Gary, If I didn’t passionately explain to you what I was thinking, or can’t, how can I expect you to do it for me.

So if I’m a player on this team, and I see this management group either doesn’t have answers, or doesn’t feel the need to share them, I’m not sure what motivation I have to say much more than “I’m focused on improving my game”.

Part of the job here is to not only rebuild the roster, but to rebuild the relationship with fans. As we sit here in 2022, forget what you think is coming because casual fans sure as hell will, how can you believe avoidance is the right approach?

Look, it’s not the end of the world, but I do add it to the bucket of unforced errors that at the moment is starting to overflow.

3. Who Invited the Crazy Uncle?

What is Travis Williams doing here in Pittsburgh?

He’s not making players moves, he is 100% hands off of the baseball side of things, that’s something the Pirates decided they weren’t going to do again after moving on from the Huntington/Coonelly era.

Coonelly would historically have to put his stamp on every move Huntington made and even put the kibosh on some deals after they were agreed to by both sides.

Here’s what Bob Nutting had to say when Williams was hired back in 2019.

“Travis’ leadership abilities, experience and passion for Pittsburgh sports makes him the ideal choice for this position,” Pirates chairman Bob Nutting said. “Travis was an integral part of the Penguins leadership team over the past decade of success. He has a keen understanding of Pittsburgh and appreciates how important our fans are. He will drive a culture of success within our organization.”

Well, we’re entering the 4th year with Williams as team president and I find myself asking, is he doing this stuff? Has his experience shown itself integral to anything the franchise has done?

I honestly don’t know the answer to these questions.

Maybe there are answers in Williams’ own statements upon taking the job.

“This is a homecoming for me, both personally and professionally,” Williams said. “It is a tremendous opportunity to come back to a city and a team that I love. I am excited about working with Bob and the rest of the Pirates family to return this franchise to a winning tradition. Today, we turn the page and start writing a new chapter in the history of the Pirates.

“We are committed to a refresh of our entire operations. The first step in this process is to immediately begin the search for new leadership of our baseball operations. Within our business operations, we will focus on enhancing our relationships with the fans, the ballpark experience and our commitment to the Pittsburgh community.”

Focus on that last sentence I bolded. Contrast that with what we’ve actually seen.

They built new bars in center field, a new kids play area, launched a Pirates HOF, and took away the out of town scoreboard.

Now they’re bringing back the out of town scoreboard, and as we already discussed, choosing actively to not engage the community by hosting Piratefest.

Does that add up?

Again, I don’t know. I think of the Penguins and how little we used to hear form David Morehouse. That’s the real mentor for Williams we should be pointing to, and his style was very much so to stay in the background. Let the hockey people do what the hockey people do. But we also always saw him there to answer for things that didn’t work out, represent the organization in the community, and speak to the future with the media.

Williams simply doesn’t talk much to anyone outside of his inner circle, and bluntly, maybe that doesn’t matter. If they’re winning, I probably don’t care what he has to say anyway, but the way he’s handling this position, we’re only going to hear from him when things change, good or bad. Add some new bars and take out some seats, we get a quote. Open a HOF we get a quote. Soon we’ll see ticket prices increase and we’ll get a quote.

I’m not sure that’s enough.

In the background, I can tell you all the Williams side of things, meaning he and his staff have been frustrated over the baseball ops side headed by Cherington as it comes to communication. For instance, when they decided to call up Travis Swaggerty last year, nobody in baseball ops felt it necessary to bring it up to Williams and his team. The quote of “We’re trying to sell tickets here” was used.

Add in an owner who would much prefer to stay out of all this and you have no choice but to rely on the competency of the men he hired. That’s were we are, and all I can say is at least for right now, I’m disappointed.

4.What’s On the Menu?

Let’s take a Thanksgiving themed look at what I see as the current roster produced lineup.

  1. CF – Ji-hwan Bae – Prototypical leadoff hitter, best centerfielder on the projected Opening Day roster in my opinion. Spark plug type, could absolutely feast on bunts and seeing eye singles if he chooses to hit that way against new shifting patterns.
  2. LF – Bryan Reynolds – You didn’t misread, I think it’s time to move Bryan over to left. It’ll be easier on his body, and if you’re fielding your best team, you put guys in position to excel, not survive. He can still fill in should they like or if they want to sit Bae on lefty starter days.
  3. SS – Oneil Cruz – He’s the best run producer this team has, and while I 100% understood and openly asked for him to be the leadoff hitter last year, it’s time to put him in a run producing position in the lineup. I know best hitter is 2nd nowadays but I still believe in L-R-L and the pull to keep switch hitting Reynolds there is just too great for me.
  4. DH – Miguel Andujar – I don’t feel great about this if I’m honest. This spot to me has to be a right handed stick, and based on who I see making the opening day lineup this is who I’d go with to start. If a team matches a lefty against the top of the order, Andujar is at least capable of making them pay. Again, this is where I start, and honorable mention to Rodolfo Castro who I truly considered here and may wind up nominating by the time we actually get started if he has a strong Spring.
  5. RF – Jack Suwinski – He hit like a platoon player last year, but as we sit, this team doesn’t really have one to offer. I also think when talking about a 2nd year player, it’s important to recognize, his story isn’t fully written. He looks like a power guy, but could evolve into a more complete hitter as well. The strikeout has been too often for him, and he won’t last long in this spot if he doesn’t improve it.
  6. 2B – Rodolfo Castro – Rudy has really interesting pop, and makes enough contact to believe more consistency is there to be found. The Switch hitting infielder can really decide if this lineup is top heavy or balanced. If he’s even slightly improved over 2022, they have potential to score a whole lot more runs in 2023. He’s that key.
  7. 3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes – This is probably where I’ll wind up disagreeing with Derek Shelton’s lineup the most. I just have this aching feeling they’re going to continue to hit him too high in the lineup for what he’s producing. I like the guy, and if his at bats improve, I’m more than happy to move him up. That said, they hung on to the belief he was an adjustment away far too long last season and he at times became at the very least a spot in the lineup you felt grateful to get something from. When you have that in the middle or top of your order, you often stub your toe before you even get all the way out of bed.
  8. 1B – Ji-man Choi – It’s weird to put the new competent free agent this low in the lineup, but looking at what I just put on the list, where would you put him? He’s not a power guy so run producer ain’t it. He’s not a speed or contact guy so top doesn’t make much sense. Right here, following Castro and Hayes who should get on base enough gives Choi a chance to not be “counted on” but still provide opportunity to matter. A 600 something OPS hits down here on a team trying to win, and when you have this many youngsters, sometimes expected OPS has to matter more.
  9. C – Ali Sanchez – Look, this is right now. If Endy were to make the team, I think you can imagine I’d change the whole damn lineup. Right now, this is my spot for the Catcher, if it’s Sanchez (it won’t be) or Perez (maybe), or Barnhardt (believe it or not really maybe), none of those names aside from Endy will change where the catcher likely hits on this team for me.

If I had one thing I really toiled with changing, it’s the cleanup spot. Part of me really wants to switch Andujar and Castro, but this is where I land for now.

5. Appetizer Plan?

Hey, we have to try to take a swing at the Starting Rotation right? Appetizer’s on Thanksgiving are kinda evil in my mind, but this rotation has options even before they add to the group.

  1. Mitch Keller – I think he has to be the Opening Day Starter. After everything he’s been through as a Pirate and all the work he put in to become a pitcher we actually want to see in 2023, let’s give him an atta boy. At least for now.
  2. Roansy Contreras – The 2nd year player had a fairly seamless rookie campaign. Think about it, there was very little drama with Roansy. The team jerked him around and played games with him on team control, he just kept pitching. They asked him to pitch out of the bullpen, OK, he just did it with a smile. Go down to AAA, alright, if you think that’s best. Entering 2023 as a fully scouted MLB pitcher and probably a much less restrictive innings count, Roansy is in for a much more difficult task than 2022 provided. He has the goods to make it work, but I expect more challenges than he faced last year. Baseball is just too hard, harder than he made it look.
  3. JT Brubaker – Look, it’s happening. I know many of you have decided you’re over it, but JT is absolutely as we sit here one of the team’s 3 best and most experienced starters. I personally think his ultimate landing spot is a bullpen, but as of right now, his experience, number of innings, stuff and potential keep him in the rotation. I’ll also say this, if JT was this team’s clear number 5, man they have a really good rotation.
  4. Johan Oviedo – I’d like more information before I choose this, so fortunately this is purposefully a way too early look at where we are. He looked dominant at times and overwhelmed at others. Sometimes I think of course he’s a starter, other times I picture him hardening up a bullpen that needs to be strengthened. Bottom line, I think he’s earned a good long look at the rotation.
  5. Zach Thompson – I think there are other options to be sure. But as a fifth starter, and I feel the need again to make sure I say, they plan to sign at least one starter, this is where I’d deploy Zach. Last year before starting to pile up injuries he was fairly consistent at providing 4 or 5 innings every outing and keeping his team in the game. I’d imagine he’ll stretch out more next season like everyone else, but more than anything I just like him more than Bryse Wilson, and Miguel Yajure. I don’t see them letting Mike Burrows win out of Spring, and whether you want to hear it or not Luis Ortiz needs a little bit of seasoning. Just a bit of refinement and he could really dominate.

That’s what I got. I think we’ll see them sign 2 starting pitchers personally. One will be a pitcher they actually count on like Quintana was, and one who they’ll consider a project or reclamation job. I also think Miguel Yajure, and Bryse Wilson are in danger of being DFA’d. They have no options and that might play into the opening day mix a bit. For instance, Thompson has 3 options, so you could see him starting in AAA just for starting depth.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving everyone. I can honestly say, I’m thankful to all of you. I talk a lot about the worst of social media and commenters, but not often enough to I acknowledge how many times a week I get kind messages and encouragement from readers and listeners. It’s human nature to let the bad overshadow the good, but this week, I’ll force that down and say, thank you. There are days where that positive comment really re-energized me, and I can’t say enough how lucky I am to have you as a reader.

Gobble Gobble.

Non-Tender Day Results in a Newman Trade

11-19-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, let’s not bury the lede, Kevin Newman is now a Cincinnati Reds player. In exchange the Pirates received right-hander Dauri Moreta.

We’ll circle back to this and talk about what it means, what I think of the return and a bit more about Kevin too, but first lets plow through the Non-Tender deadline since that was the order of the day.

Here’s the list of who was up for a decision, and what they could make or what they will make.

  • Robert Stephenson (5.049): $1.9MM
  • Kevin Newman (4.046): $2.8MM – Obviously this is now for the Reds to deal with but the Pirates did tender him before the trade was made.
  • Miguel Andujar (4.002): $1.7MM – The Pirates and Andujar agreed to terms before the deadline at $1.55MM, so he won’t go through the arbitration process at all.
  • Duane Underwood Jr. (3.044): $1MM
  • Mitch Keller (3.026): $2.4MM
  • Ji-Man Choi (5.076): $4.5MM
  • JT Brubaker (3.000): $2MM

Now, some were a bit surprised to see the Pirates tender everyone on this list, but as some of you avid readers know, not me.

First, they really didn’t have anyone who was super expensive or underperformed their pay rate. Yes, even guys you’re sick of seeing like Duane Underwood Jr., at 1MM which is only a little above league minimum is good value. Should he look awful or fall off because of chronic overuse these past couple seasons as I’ve predicted, well even for the Pirates, dropping a prorated 1MM contract isn’t a concern.

So, really no drama there. I just didn’t see any of these as tough choices. Had they chosen to move on from Stephenson or Underwood, I don’t think there’d be riots in the streets either.

Let’s move on the the Newman deal.

Before I really get into the baseball of this move, let me start with Kevin Newman the person.

Kevin is truly one of the nicest players I’ve ever interacted with, at almost any level of the game. He cared, fiercely in fact, about the losing. He understood the role he played in it and wore it.

I certainly think the Pirates needed to upgrade from him, but I also truly respect him and wish him success, you know, when he isn’t playing the Pirates.

His failures were never from a lack of trying, if anything, some of them were caused by trying too hard.

Now, I’ve seen a ton of takes out there that this “ensures Cruz gets a shot at SS”, or “Now Bae and Castro will compete for 2B”, folks, all of that was happening anyway. Kevin was going to be a backup in 2023.

Ben Cherington already told the national media that Cruz was going to play SS all season. Castro and Bae were already going to get a chance right away.

What this does help with though is thin the herd a bit. They already have Tucupita Marcano and Diego Castillo, then they went ahead and protected Jared Triolo too. Liover Peguero who was protected last year really should make a push this year, Nick Gonzales too. Point is, while they need veterans, they also have a TON of guys they need to work through and at some point, Kevin was going to be pushed out.

Why not non-tender him then? Well, even while meager, instead of nothing for their former number one pick, they get Dauri Moreta.

Moreta is a 26 year old right handed reliever and last year 35 G, 38.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 10 HR, 13 BB, 39 K. Throws 4-seam, sinker, slider and change.

His peripherals are ok, but here’s the thing that is important. He has options.

If you really want to see the Pirates put the near constant waiver wire dance in the rear view, relievers with options has to be a thing.

Even if he doesn’t work out, so be it. They managed to get something for Newman and at least they tried to get something. At best, they got a reliever with interesting stuff who they aren’t forced to keep on the 26 man if his performance doesn’t warrant it.

As for Kevin in Cincy, let’s be real honest, he’s going to be asked to fill the same role he would of here last year had he not been hurt. Hold a place for a top prospect until mid season. Elly De La Cruz is coming like a freight train, and he could be a monster.

All in all, most of this was as expected, and now we wait to see how they shape the roster before Spring Training.

One thing about having only 1 catcher and no left handed pitchers does for you as a fan, it guarantees more moves are coming.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Boys Of Fall

11/18/22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Anytime there is ball being played beyond the regular season fans often put extra emphasis on it; especially when there are All-Star and Championship Games incorporated into the schedule. For fans of a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates-who haven’t seen postseason action in their city since Jake Arrieta and the Cubs came to town-the feelings are often magnified.

However, the Arizona Fall League is much different in design and practice. Still, I can see how things can get a little bit misconstrued when top prospects are involved.

Hearing that players like Quinn Priester, Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales would be participating is like a beacon for excitement-or more accurately hope-amongst a starved fanbase. That is until you realize it is more of an extended spring training/instructional environment; utilized by the Pirates New Regime-mostly as a way to get players who were injured a little bit of extra work-then penny doesn’t seem so shiny.

This isn’t about me totally putting down the league, or not enjoying it. It more about tempering expectations concerning any realistic analysis that can be derived from watching film, or studying stats from less than 90 plate appearances for batters and fewer than 20 innings for most pitchers.

Plus remember-once again-that it is an instructional league.

For the 2022 season, the Pirates sent their High-A Hitting Coach Ruben Gotay-the Greensboro Grasshopper’s Hitting Coach to assist as part of the Surprise Saguaros staff. Last year Kieran Mattison-Current Altoona Curve Manager-joined the Pirates Prospects on their journey to Peiora.

Clearly, being involved could mean as much for the coaches as it often does for the players considering Mattison was ultimately promoted to Altoona from the same position in Greensboro following his participation in the Fall League.

Still, I just can’t bring myself to look at the statistics of each Pirates Prospect, and make any great proclamations or predictions.

For instance, in 2021 Nick Gonzales tore up the AZL to the tune of a .380/.483/.549 slash line with 2 homers, 7 total extra base hits and 13 walks to 14 strikeouts in 87 plate appearances. Unfortunately for him this success did not fully transfer over to the start of season in Altoona. Through his first 43 games in Double-A, Gonzales slashed .247/.366/.377 with 4 homers, 12 total extra base hits and a 32.8% K to 13.4% BB rate.

At this point he was sidelined for the next two months with a heel injury; eventually coming back with a vengeance for the final 30 games of the year. Over his last 137 plate appearances, Gonzales batted .295 with an .936 OPS and a 21.9% K to 13.1% BB rate; which is oddly familiar to what took place during his time with Greensboro in 2021.

In his first 43 games for the Grasshoppers he hit .265 with a .786 OPS and a 31.2% K to 8.5% BB rate; while he .344 with a 1.128 OPS and a 23.3% K to 13.3% rate over the final 38.

All in all, there are just too many variables.

Is a pitcher working on a new grip, delivery or simply attempting to find location? Did the batter change his stance or approach? Is a player trying out a new or unfamiliar position? Are all these factors and more shifting from day to day?

So, go ahead and argue about whether or not Henry Davis’ .260 AVG and .875 OPS, or Quinn Priester’s 6.26 ERA and 1.565 WHIP were good enough to have them participate in the Fall Star Game, or that they-along with Gonzales-are going to hit the ground running next year.

This just isn’t how it works.

Top Targets in the Rule 5 Draft

11/17/2022 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Now that every team in MLB has decided who they wanted to protect in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, it’s time to dig in and get out the sifter looking for any stray nuggets that might have slipped through the cracks.

Fans tend to love their own prospects, and Rule 5 protection time a fan base will typically have a list of 5 or 6 guys many are concerned they could lose. Especially in a market where so much relies on the system.

That said, even fans in Dodger Blue hate losing a real talent for nothing.

Today, let’s take a look at who I see as the top targets in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft on December 7th. You might see a few Pirates on my list, because I’m looking at this from a global MLB standpoint and I think it’s important you see where the Bucs players I list fall in perspective to everyone else.

So at the end of the day, this piece will double as a look at who the Pirates who pick 3rd could target, AND who they should be most concerned with losing.

Sound good? Hope so cause I’ve already done a ton of research. Lets Go!

The Hitters

All position players will fall under this category.

1. Ryan Ward – Corner OF, 2B – LA Dodgers

Ryan resides in Double A Tulsa, he’s 24, primarily plays Left Field. Selected in the 8th round in 2019, the 5’11” Lefty hitter has displayed consistent power. In 2021 he had 439 at bats and stroked 27 home runs with his A+ season with an OPS of .876.

Not impressed? Well how about his AA year with Tulsa in 2022? 459 at bats, 28 homeruns an .805 OPS isn’t bad is it?

His issue as with many sluggers is the strike out. in 2021, 118, come 2022, 116. Thing is he doesn’t walk all that often either. The Power is more than real and tested, but to make his mark in MLB, he’ll have to work on this aspect or that OPS will crash.

If you want a Pirates spin to this, they hardly need another left handed bat, and at that, another guy who strikes out a bunch. That power is hard to pass on though. A good comp is Jack Suwinski, who started last season in AA Altoona before making the leap to MLB. Jack had less of a track record though if we’re honest.

2. Dominic Canzone – OF – Arizona

Dominic is a 25 year old left handed outfielder, drafted in the 8th round back in 2019 the 6’1″ hitter has performed every step of the way in his minor league journey. Often earning promotions early in the season and in 2022 spending the majority of his time in AAA Reno.

Numbers don’t lie, so let’s start there. In 331 at bats Canzone hit 16 homeruns with a .284 average and an OPS of .838. K rate isn’t horrible, draws walks, plays all 3 outfield positions. If you add up all his stops in 2022 his 22 homeruns show a maturing process playing out.

2022 wasn’t an outlier, his career OPS is .893 and he’s displayed power at every level.

In my opinion, Dominic is the most consistent potential offensive pick in the draft. His upside may not be as high as Ward, but if you’re purely looking for a player who can make the jump and have enough success to stick, this is the guy.

3. Matt Gorski – OF – Pittsburgh

OK, yes, I would have protected him, but I hope I’ve built up enough trust with you all to have you believe I’m shooting straight here and not trying to back up my own opinion.

Selected in the 2nd round back in 2019, Matt will be 25 before Pitchers and Catchers report. He can play all 3 outfield spots and play them well. A right handed hitter Gorski has an imposing frame at 6’4″ and 200 lbs, this isn’t a kid who is going to grow into his body and lose athleticism, he’s already there.

He played short season ball in 2019, lost 2020 to COVID, spent 2021 in Greensboro where his 17 homeruns could have easily been a ballpark result.

Then came 2022 where the Pirates decided to keep him in Greensboro for some reason and in 37 games he proved that was too low. In 126 at bats he hit 17 homeruns only struck out 39 times and racked up an OPS of 1.131. So, the promotion was due, but still that ballpark was a factor surely right?

In AA prior to being injured in 141 at bats he hit 6 more dingers with an OPS of .843 and I won’t bother talking to his 2 ABs in AAA after returning from injury.

If he has a bugaboo, it’s that the injury to his quad has been stubborn and he has very little upper level experience.

Remember, the Rule 5 draft is often not about the players with the highest ceiling, and more about the most likely to stick.

This simply isn’t a guy I’d have left unprotected, but better players than him slip through every year.

4. Jake Mangum – OF – NY Mets

From the jump, there’s no way to get around one thing with Jake, he’ll be 27 years old by Opening Day. Let’s just get that out of the way, and not hide from it.

Drafted in the 4th round back in 2019 and while he lost a year to COVID like everyone else, he also has struggled to stay healthy. It makes tracking his progress difficult, because every season he has played at multiple levels. The OPS has been ok, .760 for his career, his batting average rests at .284. He doesn’t strike out a ton, he draws a decent amount of walks, and he plays good defense at all three outfield spots.

Not a lot of power there, unless you believe minor league doubles turn into major league homers, but at 27 that’s a bit of a reach for me.

Now if you want to cherry pick, he caught on in AAA last year, in 148 plate appearances he hit .333 with an OPS of .836.

Mangum is a switch hitter who hits for better average as a right handed stick, but has far more at bats against righties so sample size probably plays a role.

Pitchers

The first thing to think about with pitchers in the Rule 5 draft, rarely is a team going to select a guy, regardless of what he’s done in the minors, no matter what role he filled, the likelihood is he’ll be used as a bullpen arm at least for his Rule 5 year. Luis Oviedo was a perfect example. He was a starter and the Pirates knew he wasn’t ready for MLB, so they stashed him in the bullpen and barely used him. Let’s just say, guys on my list you hopefully won’t want to hide but nobody is plopping a Rule 5 guy straight into their rotation. No, not even a Nutting team you insufferables out there.

1. Jayden Murray – SP – Houston

Jayden was drafted by the Rays in the 23rd round back in 2019 and I’m sure you’re tired of hearing he didn’t play in 2020 but it’s a reality that is still with a ton of players and this year’s Rule 5 draft is the peak of it’s effect on the system.

He was moved to the Astros as part of a 3 team deal at the deadline so his stats are really split up for 2022. The vast majority of his playing time was in AA between Montgomery and Corpus Christi sandwiched around one start in Durham.

The 25 year old right hander throws a Fastball, Changeup and Slider and is known as a strike thrower and for his career has found the zone 67% of his pitches. He’s not just a guy who gets it in the zone though, his fastball rests in the low to mid 90’s but he can ramp it up to 96-97 when he needs it and gets a ton of tail movement on it too.

The slider is really developed and the change is deceptive but a distant third in his mix.

For 2022, he started 22 games with one relief appearance and posted a 3.50 ERA in 108 IP, with 99 Ks and a WHIP of 1.21.

Again, if he’s selected, he won’t start, but in the bullpen you could expect that top end velocity more often and the slider is a weapon.

2. Thad Ward – SP – Boston

Thad was drafted way back in 2018 in the 5th round out of college and as a result he’s going to be 26 years old by the time Pitchers and Catchers report.

Ward possesses a mature 5 pitch mix with a Fastball that touches 94 a Slider, Cutter, Changeup and Curveball although he rarely uses the Curve. He profiles as a back end starter but is likely to land in the pen anyway, especially at his age and he’ll need to probably focus on the pitches that really work for him. The slider has the most potential to wind up a plus pitch.

He wasn’t healthy last year as he worked to return from a June 2021 Tommy John surgery, and only pitched in 13 games spread across 4 different stops and then suffered a strained oblique causing more missed time.

This is a project to be sure, but could net a successful bullpen pick up and results haven’t been his issue nearly as much as health.

In 2022, he posted a 2.28 ERA in 51.1 IP with 66 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

3. Moises Lugo – RP – San Diego

Moises is a big right hander signed out of the Dominican by the Padres back in 2017. He’s 23 now and sits as the Friar’s 28th ranked prospect.

He’s been a starter, but in an effort to accelerate his path and I’m sure acknowledgement that a third pitch has simply not developed, the Padres moved him to a multi inning reliever role. His two main pitches grade out well, a fastball with a 60 grade and a Slider at 50, without sacrificing the control grade of 45.

In 2022 he pitched in 39 games, all relief save one outing, amounting to 72.2 IP. He totaled an ERA of 3.22 with 97 Ks and a 1.25 WHIP.

The fastball lives in the 93-97 MPH range and the slider is enough to keep hitters honest, but lacking a 3rd pitch lefties can give him issues.

4. Erik Miller – RP – Philadelphia

You knew I had to get a lefty in here right? How about Philly’s 4th round selection in 2019 and their current number 7 prospect?

Erik is a big boy, 6’5″ and 240 lbs, to be precise. He offers a 3 pitch mix with a Fastball, Curve, & Slider. The Slider is his best pitch (60 Grade) but the fastball can reach 95 and has life grading out at 50 as did his Changeup.

The slider is MLB ready right now, but he’ll need to work on command to really make a go of it in the Bigs.

Overall his 22 was a mixed bag. In AA he posted 36 innings with a 2.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 44 Ks, but in AAA he didn’t fair nearly as well, pithing in only 12 innings he put up a 7.50 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and 18 Ks.

Small sample sizes to be sure. And he missed most of 2021 due to injury as well. But a lefty with this body type and three established pitches might be too tempting to pass up.

2 Guys Talkin’ Trades, Winter Meetings

11-16-22 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- As the GM meetings ended, we hadn’t really heard a lot on the Pirates outside of a Jon Morosi Tweet on Bryan Reynolds. Before we delve into one David Bednar, let’s address the Morosi Tweet, Corey. 

Not that I take what a GM says as law in these situations; no GM tells us the plan. But this does mirror what we wrote last week: The Bucs would like to extend and keep Reynolds. If they do move him, it won’t be on a discount.

Corey Shrader- I think we read the tea leaves on this one fairly well. No GM worth his or her salt is going to flat out show their cards and this echoes our thoughts on the situation. If you want Reynolds, it’s going to need to fulfill the team’s directional objective. I still stand by our assessment that Reynolds will be a Pirate for 2023.

JV- Alright, enough about Bryan Reynolds. That was last week. This week doesn’t get much easier as we examine if moving David Bednar could make sense and what it could look like. As we get into this, here’s another reminder that we are not suggesting the Pirates should trade Bednar. Corey and I will leave that opinion up to you, but like Reynolds, his name is bound to come up in December. Like it or not, we might as well talk about it. 

CS- Bednar is a difficult read for me. He is highly desirable to teams in need of bullpen help. Flat out dominant since coming to Pittsburgh. There is also a unique circumstance of him being a Pittsburgh native tossed in. I suppose we must do our best and forge ahead exploring what a deal of Bednar may look like, or at the very least, what we would hope it might look like.

JV- Like all of these proposals, it starts with the surplus value.  At last year’s deadline, Joe and I mentioned that the Bucs will not and should move Bednar at the ZIPS projections value. As you can see from that link, selling Bednar at a 1 WAR per season projection makes no sense, especially considering his production the last 2 seasons. (1.5 and 1.2 WAR respectively). Using Joe’s estimate last season, minus the 22 season and his SV is solid.

Da Chart

1.523 WAR Joe’s est
1.324 WAR
1.225 WAR
126 WAR
5Total War
x9Cost of win
45Total Value
$22Salary
$23Surplus Value

JV- $23 million is the number we come up with. Corey, let me kick you a question and see what you think. Is moving Bednar at $23M worth it?

CS- I think this value is about right. But, I will say that trading RH RPs is a little variable, so we may need to be open to considering a neighborhood value in return with some wiggle room while using 23M as our upper “limit.” In saying this though, I think that there is always a caveat of a team really wanting him. Conversely, the Pirates might really covet a piece (or pieces) coming the other way. Bednar, and RPs in general, are sort of fascinating trade pieces. I am interested in seeing what we can come up with here. 

JV- There’s no shortage of teams to look at for Bednar. An article in the MLB.com states Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies as well as “other teams” could all be interested in Bednar. 

“Other teams that could try to bring in a new closer include the Twins, Rangers, Orioles, D-backs, Cubs, Marlins and Tigers.”

I imagine there are more teams that could be sniffing around here as well, despite the bad stretch towards the end. 

For my proposal, I’m going with the Rangers. If the rumor that Jacob deGrom would like to sign with Texans is true, then I can see a scenario where the Rangers push the rebuild forward aggressively. Adding deGrom to Jon Gray, Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning would give the Rangers a solid mix on the mound. Add in they have 3  prospects that could make their debut, (Jack Leiter, Owne White and Cole Winn) and the Rangers are in a good place to deal one of their pitching prospects for a closer like David Bednar. 

The Deal

Rangers get

David Bednar-CLO- MLB ($23M)

Travis Swaggery-CF–ETA–2023- FV 45 ($6M)

Diego Castillo–UTIL–MLB–(hard to gauge)

Pirates get

Jack Leiter–SP–ETA:2023–FV 55($34M)

It’s April 2021, the MLB draft is approaching, and it’s coming fast. To me there was exactly one name on the list for the 1st overall pick. And it was Jack Leiter. Don’t get me wrong, when the draft was done and the kids signed the 21 draft  looks like it could be an organizational changing class, an historic class. Obviously this is hyperbolic nonsense but still, the 21 draft for the Bucs could be legit. And somehow I still can’t get off Jack Leiter’s fastball/slider combo. 

Here’s what Eric Longenhagen had to say about his FB/SL/CB combo.

 “Leiter is a modern power pitcher with feel for pitch execution that comes and goes. When he’s on, he blows his fastball (95-98 mph early in 2022, more 93-97 as he entered the meat of the campaign at Frisco) past hitters in the zone because of the velo and carry on the pitch, some of which is aided by Leiter’s medium size and big stride down the mound. With that he pairs two breaking balls. The shape of his curveball and slider still tend to run together a little bit, but Leiter has increased the velocity separation between the two since college by throwing his slider harder (it averaged 82 mph at Vanderbilt but is sitting 85 so far in 2022). Even though his curveball was the more consistent of his two breaking balls in college and Leiter is using them at a roughly equal rate so far in pro ball, his slider has become his secondary put-away pitch of choice.”

Leiter doesn’t have the ideal build for your prototypical power pitcher, but his FB has legit “raise” and induses a good deal of swing and miss. His slider/CB is nothing to laugh about either. 

Rangers fans that come across this article will be hurling every insult they can think of at me, and that’s fair. And they’re probably right. But Swaggs looks ready for the MLB and Castillo gives them a power bat utility player that’s sorely lacking there, he can also fill in at multiple spots in a pinch.  Jack had a rough start to his professional debut in AA, don’t let that scare you the kid has the good stuff and if the Rangers want more back Cherington should be willing to do it. It’s time to be more surgical with any trades he considers. I can dream here Corey, that’s the fun thing with these articles.

CS – My outlook here is similar to how I view a deal involving Reynolds; should Bednar get traded I think the return has to be mostly MLB ready/near plug & play. Justin mentioned above that there are so many potential suitors for a back-end arm that this exercise could contain about 20 different formulations. 

For this particular exercise I am going to go to a familiar team we discussed within the last column. The Dodgers.

The Deal

Dodgers get:

David Bednar – MLB, CL ($23M)

Pirates get:

Ryan Pepiot – MLB, P ($6M)

Michael Grove – MLB, P ($4M)

Emmet Sheehan – AA, P ($3M)

First thing’s first, yes, these values aren’t adding up are they? Well, no, but I think there are some factors baked in here beyond just the $ figure that have me Nicholson nodding to this return. Chief among them being that both Pepiot & Grove are major league ready, plug & play pieces. Across 36.1 & 29.1 MLB innings respectively this pair effectively held their own in their first tastes of the bigs. Both Pepiot & Grove have flashed very impressive K stuff (11.23 & 10.26 K/9 at AAA) throughout their minor league resumes and both have had accompanying control woes (3.55 & 3.17 BB/9 at AAA). However, they are exactly the type of players I’d like to see come into the fold for Pittsburgh. Essentially “ready”, high-K pitchers, coming out of one of the premier developmental organizations in the sport. Yes, please.

The third piece here who, full disclosure, might be my favorite long term prospect of the deal is RHP Emmet Sheehan. Fresh off of a dominant showing in the AFL, he looks like yet another of the seemingly endless parade of high end arms out of the Dodgers system. Sheehan completely rolled through A+ in 2022 (14.28 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 2.83 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 1.08 WHIP) before a small taste of AA where he was not as effective (10.38 K/9, 6.23 BB/9, 4.15 ERA, 6.53 FIP, 1.15 WHIP), but it was just 4.1 IP. I believe that when the revised prospect ranking lists come out this spring, Sheehan is one that will rise quite a lot. 

So, while this one does not equal out via SV $, it gives Pittsburgh what it craves. Pitching depth & upside that is ready to be deployed and a prospect with a very, very high ceiling. One byproduct of this move would be a shift of Johan Oviedo back to the bullpen. Slotting Oviedo into a back end role seems like a natural fit with his filthy slider and velocity. Perhaps that seems silly given his relative success as a starter in September & October, but I think it is a very good fit for him.

Final thoughts

CS- Not to beat a dead horse here, but finding a trade partner for Bednar is simultaneously easy & difficult. There are a lot of teams that could absolutely use a player like him pitching in the 9th or even 8th inning for them. Guessing at how much other teams would value an RP is a tough racket. My proposed trade package might be far too light – or too steep in quantity/depth for LA to move? This exercise, for me, shows just how tricky finding deals can be even for a player any team would want to have on their 26 man.

JV- That’s a fantastic point about moving Oviedo back to the bullpen. With any deal that GMBC gets done, roster construction has to be one of the main driving forces and that goes beyond the pieces he’s acquiring. How do the chess pieces fit on the board? How does acquiring a starting pitcher that can open the year in the rotation affect the guys currently on the roster. Adding a starter that allows them to move an Oviedo to the pen could strengthen 2 positions. 

We have deals here that highlight the problem with moving David Bednar. The first bit off more than the Rangers will want to chew. The second raids an MLB roster of 2 viable arms. Neither is an easy feat. If I were a betting man I’d take Bednar to remain in Pittsburgh but I might not take the over.

Join us next week as Corey and I tackle this from the opposite point of view, as we take a look at the Bucs adding a vets. What do ya think Corey, start in the OF?

CS – The OF seems like a fantastic spot to start. There is a definite need there and adding to it makes a lot of sense. Looking forward to scoping out some options with you!

Pirates Rule 5 Protections and The Ji-Man Choi Addition

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-fbtcu-13163f9

Craig and Chris talk Rule 5 Protections, which result in subtractions; as well as the surprise fact that everyone is getting wrong about the Ji-Man Choi addition. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-14-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The off season is in full swing now. The Pirates have traded for a first baseman, and made cuts to trim the roster to 40 after returning 5 players from long term IL status. Craig and I collaborated on an extensive look at the Rule 5 Draft, and it’s not even close to slowing down, tomorrow is the deadline for Rule 5 Protection.

Let’s rock!

1. Oh Choi! A Real First Baseman, but…

I could dive into numbers here and try to convince you this is some stellar move, but suffice to say, Ji-man Choi is a decent player overall. He’s a really good defender, and he’s also a dead pull singles hitter from the left side who walks a ton.

You can write in pen a .700 OPS for the most part, and you can also expect a fielding percentage of nearly .975.

He’s also not someone any fan is really going to get excited about.

Since moving Josh Bell prior to the 2021 season the Pirates have struggled to field the position. Colin Moran got the first shot and beside his injuries he also just never hit like a starter. 2022 they tried Yoshi Tsutsugo and it was an utter disaster that led to the emergence of noted try hard Michael Chavis and Josh Van Meter taking over there. Sprinkle in some Bligh Madris and Ben Gamel if you like but first base was an issue all year long.

If healthy, and that remains to be seen since after acquiring Choi from Tampa Bay news broke that he was having a small procedure on his right elbow to remove some “loose bodies” from it. Sounds like he should be ready for the season, but it’s a question until it isn’t.

Here’s the easiest way to put it, Choi is an upgrade on the nothing they have at the position, and he’s also not someone we’re hopeful can learn it on the job. This can do nothing but help the infield defense.

I’d also point out, limiting shifting helps a guy like this. He pulls the ball around 85% of the time, so it should be fairly obvious if he continues to do that he’s likely to improve some of his numbers. Even if only marginally.

Exciting? No. Competent? That’s probably fair.

2. Steamer Projections are Out

First, let me show you…

Now, personally, these things don’t do much for me and I’ll explain why at the end. That said, to some of you these are valuable so I promise I won’t just blow it off.

They were developed by Jared Cross, a high school teacher from Brooklyn with a couple of his students years ago. They use past performance and expected age trends to project numbers for the following season.

Really, it’s a fancy way of looking at what a player has done and trying to predict how they’ll progress or decline. Of all of this, the thing that tends to get the most wonky in my opinion is the projections for number of games or at bats or innings. Honestly, how could anyone possibly know?

Take last year for example, when these came out, could you possibly have predicted Michael Chavis would wind up being the starting first baseman?

Of course not.

It’s a nice snapshot of one way you can look at a roster and set expectations. There are a ton of ways to do this, but Steamer is a formalized version and because some outlets have picked it up and utilized it like Fangraphs it’s become legitimized.

Let’s take one player and see how close it was, and to make it as fair as possible, lets take an utterly known commodity like Bryan Reynolds. I’ll list for every category 2022 Steamer/2022 Actual and let’s see how close it was.

At Bats – 580/542 – Bryan was injured for a small stretch there remember?
Home Runs – 24/27 – Having fewer ABs and more HRs, one could argue this was off big.
RBI – 86/62 – Not their fault, no way to know where he’d hit and who behind.
Strikeouts – 133/141 – Impressive
Average – .279/.262 – Down year average wise for Bryan, and almost everyone else too.
OPS – .845/.807 – Not too shabby.

Not bad right? So why don’t I like it all that much? Well a whole lot of this is based on history, and most of the Pirates roster doesn’t have very much to go on. That’s a lot of guess work. I’m fine with these as far as general fun and expectation, but when you see people start to use them as selling points for acquisition, I have some issues.

Regardless, have fun with them, don’t preach them like their written in red in the good book.

3. The Rule 5 Draft Historically Isn’t All That Dangerous

One thing I often hear around this time of year is a ton of the sky is falling, everyone is getting taken, the team doesn’t like this guy type takes and folks, it’s just not that huge most of the time.

Of course we didn’t have a Rule 5 draft in 2022 due to the work stoppage, but back in 2021, 18 players were selected, 13 wound up playing in MLB, meaning 5 were returned to their original teams, and a few more still were offered back but refused.

That’s out of hundreds of eligible and unprotected players. One of those 13 was of course Luis Oviedo, another was Ka’ai Tom. For every success story there are 10 failures. For every Clemente, well, there’s only one Clemente.

This is important don’t get me wrong, but let’s take a quick minute and really digest why someone is or isn’t protected.

First, you have the obvious, if a player is eligible, and likely to find themselves promoted to MLB within the upcoming season, he is of course a consideration. Now, if he is someone who has a lot left to prove but super talented and nationally is seen as a player in MLB’s top 100, that stipulation might get ignored. Liover Peguero is a perfect example of that. He wasn’t ready for the show, but he was an MLB top 100 player, and that is simply too attractive to expect one of the other 29 teams won’t take a swing at burying the guy on their bench just to get a free top prospect. Remember they have to be rostered, not played.

Sometimes it has to do with the team’s depth at a position. For instance, you may see the Pirates protect a guy like Malcom Nunez, and that will have less to do with his ranking or readiness than it does his position. Funny thing is, his position itself is a good reason to think he wouldn’t be selected, but it’s a risk, and a risk that most teams won’t want to take.

Relievers are by far the most easy to roster, and likely to be selected players. You could see the Pirates choose to protect Tahnaj Thomas who is a perfect example here. He can hit triple digits on the gun, but struggles with control. He’s not likely a lock to make MLB in 2023 but that velocity is sexy. Colin Selby is another guy who’s been a really good reliever, but not a huge name. You could see both protected, but the team must be careful, if they protect a bunch of guys who are shaky at best to make the show and stick just to keep them in the system, they ultimately rob themselves of real help on the 40-man. That winds up causing players to get quick call ups followed by DFA to make room for another quick call up. MLB bullpenning has become about fresh arms and you need that option bank, something the Pirates haven’t had in a couple seasons.

This is part of what caused the Bucs to start 2022 with Roansy Contreras in the bullpen. They had no other pitching options on the 40-man, and that early in the season, let’s just say you aren’t looking to waive depth.

Either way, when the lists break tomorrow, don’t lose your mind. They know the dangers and have balanced all the risks. Even if they’re wrong, you won’t see them lose anyone you considered a lock to help in 2023.

4. Travis Swaggerty a Rule 5 Casualty?

Not bloody likely.

My sources tell me there is far too much being read into the Pirates belief in the 2018 first round pick and that his future role in the organization is not something the franchise has ruled out.

The team does have a glut of outfield prospects they need to filter through, and a trade of him or any prospect wouldn’t shock me, but the club is also nowhere near simply cutting him or giving him away for nothing.

His usage in 2022 was described to me as much more about how little he played since 2019, than performance or evaluation.

The pick position did Travis no good, it was a high pick for a college bat that profiled as a bench player more than a superstar, but the philosophy in this town used to be drafting the floor, instead of the ceiling. So far he’s done nothing to prove he can’t reach that level.

Now, it’s also very possible that level of performance will simply not find a place to play on this team, but that decision, at least according to those I talk to isn’t coming this off season. If nothing else they like the depth he provides and defensively they still have him chalked up as “elite”.

5. Dumpster Diving Alert!!!

I’d just like to note that most of the Pirates diving for players to patch holes is drying up. They’re now to the point where they have a decent amount of close to MLB ready players that can fill most roles. That doesn’t mean you won’t see them sign any more cast offs.

Remember every single year all teams will binge and sign NRI’s or Non-Roster Invitees. Sometimes they won’t be signed as such, but they might as well be. A tryout not on the 40-man brought in from the outside, well all I can say is it’s been a while since we’ve seen this go full tilt. Remember split squads in Spring Training? It’s been a while since baseball went through a spring that wasn’t affected by COVID and travel/roster restrictions.

I believe we’ll get back to “tryouts” all over the league and probably more than ever with all the players forced into the free agent pool by the older COVID year prospects losing spots left and right.

If you got by in camp with 18-20 pitchers last year, you might need 24-28 this year.

Point is, before you cry same old Pirates, look around the league, you’ll see NRIs everywhere and it’s going to be a bit weird.

Figuring Out The Pirates 40-Man: Who’s Safe And Who Might Not Be

11-13-22 – By Craig Toth & Gary Morgan – @bucsbasement & @garymo2007 on Twitter

Craig – Do you hear that sound? It’s the keyboards pounding, teeth gnashing, alerts sounding, pages refreshing as Pittsburgh Pirates Fans furious debate the official opening of the team’s off-season. Even though there were some preemptive rumblings concerning the free agent statuses of Ben Gamel and Roberto Perez, along with yet another waiver claim in the form of Colorado Rockies #22 Prospect Ryan Vilade (the 2023 Greg Allen, as I like to call him), fans really got engaged with the signing of Ji-Man Choi; which really overshadowed-for better or for worse-the Pirates scramble to get the roster down to 40, at the wire this past Thursday.

With five players being activated from the IL-in addition to acquiring Choi-the Pirates had to send six men packing, outright to Indianapolis.

Gary – Yeah, I’ve heard it too Craig. So, here are the moves we just saw. Canaan Smith-Njigba, RHP Colin Holderman, Yerry De Los Santos, Blake Cederlind and Max Kranick have been reinstated from the 60-day IL. Then Peter Solomon, Beau Sulser, Jason Delay, Blake Cederlind, Eric Stout and Zack Collins were taken off the 40-man. Collins and Stout selected free agency, the rest cleared waivers and went to AAA.

Here’s the thing, before we start all this, I had counted 17 players on the 40-man I’d have been completely fine moving on from. 2 of the guys the Pirates just cut, weren’t on my list.

They have plenty of fodder, and as you already mentioned, they continue to bring in more.

I’d also like to say, this process often devolves on the conversation front to “not believing” in a player or “hating” a prospect. Really it’s more about the likelihood that they’d be selected by another team, not a reflection of their ability or future star power.

Craig-Couldn’t agree more Gary. Of the decisions made by Ben Cherington and Company there were no real surprises. Sure you could get into the nuance of keeping Tyler Heineman and Ali Sanchez over Jason Delay; yet in all honesty, all this guarantees is a spot on the 40-Man until they sign a Roberto Perez, or space is needed for any number of prospects they have to protect from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

The Churn continues. It’s as simple as that.

Well maybe Choi isn’t that simple, but that seems like its own blog post or podcast episode(s).

At this point, we have Choi; and, he is going to be-at the very least-a part of the solution at first base. However, at the moment we have to get to more pressing matters.

Eligible to Be Protected

Gary – We’re going to keep this to “Realistically Could be Protected”. In other words, the list of R5 eligible players is a lot longer than the list of guys who’ll actually be considered.

Catchers: Endy Rodriguez, Carter Bins, Blake Sabol, Abrahan Gutierrez

First Base: Mason Martin, Malcom Nunez, Aaron Shackelford, Brendt Citta, Jacob Gonzalez

Third Base, SS, 2B: Maikol Escotto, Jared Triolo, Dariel Lopez, Juan Jerez

Outfielders: Matt Gorski, Fabricio Macias, Matt Fraizer, Connor Scott, Lolo Sanchez

Starting Pitchers: Mike Burrows, Cody Bolton, Trey McGough, Carlos Jimenez

Relief Pitchers: JC Flowers, Tahnaj Thomas, Hunter Stratton, Colin Selby, Joe Jacques, Omar Cruz

Craig- The only addition I would make is Altoona’s 20/20 Man Andres Alvarez at 2nd Base; although that’s pretty much an outside possibility.

Who Would We Protect?

Gary – For me this isn’t all that hard. Mike Burrows and Endy Rodriguez are locks. Matt Gorski, Dariel Lopez and Cody Bolton are borderline. Everyone else is probably safe. So at most I’m seeing the team protecting 5 players, and needing to remove 5 to make room. Add in free agents and others acquisitions and that removal number will get uncomfortable real quick.

Craig-The first two-Burrows and Endy-are no-brainers; on that we can agree. At that point, we start to deviate ever so slightly. Malcom Nunez is the next man up for me-mostly due to his recent acquisition by Cherington. Next is Bolton because of his ability to start and provide long relief. Gorski could potentially have been above these two, but the unfortunate hamstring injury, and subsequent re-injury, has me questioning it slightly. Finally we have Lopez, a prospect that I love; but one that might just be a little bit too young and inexperienced for a team to roster.

I would tend to agree with you on idea of 5, just maybe not how they get there. And of course, Cherington could jump in with a surprising Selby, Thomas or Flowers to shake things up; which is something I could easily get on board with.

Gary – Here’s my thinking on Nunez Craig. Barely touched AAA, I can’t for the life of me imagine the Pirates thinking he could stick on their roster all season, let alone another club believing he could. His power just emerged, and was at least aided by ballpark. To me, this is almost the same conversation we had about Martin last year. Nunez can play 3rd a little, 1st a little and DH. Is that really a guy who profiles as someone who wouldn’t be safe?

I could really get on board with Selby. Thomas has just had too many control issues if you ask me, but I could see a team taking a swing on the reliever, if only because relievers are the #1 target in the rule 5 draft. You’re probably right on Lopez, I guess I was thinking he’s super young, if you can bury him for a season, you get a free prospect.

This is good, let’s argue this out a bit more because I know you can do better than Cherington just picked him up to sway me on Nunez.

Craig-Can’t totally disagree with your points on Nunez. The only things that give me pause are the aforementioned direct tie to the current regime, as well as the continued surge in many of numbers after the transition to Altoona; including his slash line (255/.360/.463 to .286/.381/.486) and wRC+ (110 to 134). Also he maintained a fairly healthy 14% to 20.9% walk to strike out ratio across two organizations and levels. Usually I wouldn’t advocate for an almost 22 year-old, 1B/DH to be protected, but with general weakness at the position throughout the Minors, I could deviate from the norm on this one.

With Thomas, control has consistently been an issue, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t protected; but, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he was selected. Topping out at 100 mph is something teams usually can’t ignore.

Enter Colin Selby and his newfound velocity, with the control as well; which could be the deciding factor when weighing him against Thomas.

Gary – So Craig, here’s the rub, I think we’re at 3 or 4. We both have Burrows as a lock, we both agree Endy is a lock. Then it sounds like we have a mix of Bolton, Nunez, Thomas, Selby and Gorski for the other 1 or 2.

Let’s leave our final predictions for the end, and let’s also keep in mind, Craig and I are old, we aren’t the type to just say F it let’s protect them all. We know free agency and more deals are likely on the near horizon. Protect too many and wind up giving away something you don’t want to lose for nothing.

Onto the cuts unless you have anything else to add here partner.

The Expendables

Gary – It’s always best to start as wide ranging as you can when taking on this job. Way more than you need, because at some point, you need to have vision into who the lowest men on the roster are anyway. As we already talked about free agency and additional moves, clearly we’re not going to fight over finding 3 or 4 here.

I’ll do the dirty work here brother, you help me out by adding or subtracting if I got too nuts.

Jeremy Beasly, Junior Fernandez, Max Kranick (Likely out half the season on IL), Duane Underwood, Jr., Miguel Yajure, Bryce Wilson, Tyler Heineman, Ali Sanchez, Diego Castillo, Hoy Park, Tucupita Marcano, and Ryan Vilade.

OK, so I don’t think all these guys are getting cut, but I think they all could. That’s 12 guys, and as we discussed we need 2 spots minimum, 2 more max.

I should stop here and let you fix my thinking Craig. But while you’re at it, go ahead and take a stab at prioritizing them.

Craig-On a team with back-to-back 100 loss seasons, cutting the fat should be the easy part; or, I feel like it could be for us as armchair GM’s. Each of these names and players hold a certain amount of future value-trade, potential, etc.- in my mind, with several simply not being worth as much.

Nevertheless, before I get started with the prioritization/ranking process-going from least to most-I would like to throw Robert Stephenson and his $1.9 Million estimated arbitration salary into the mix.

  1. Jeremy Beasly
  2. Tyler Heineman
  3. Hoy Park
  4. Robert Stephenson
  5. Junior Fernandez
  6. Ali Sanchez
  7. Duane Underwood, Jr.
  8. Ryan Vilade
  9. Max Kranick
  10. Miguel Yajure
  11. Bryce Wilson
  12. Tucupita Marcano
  13. Diego Castillo

Of the 13 names listed above, I personally would like to see a little bit more of 9 through 13, but it wouldn’t kill me if I didn’t.

Gary– Bro, agree on all that. Stephenson is a bit high on that list for me, I’m fairly certain he and Underwood will get tendered even if I wouldn’t, but it hardly matters.

That leaves conclusions brother.

Craig- Yeah, I get the tender/non-tender, which is the reason why Stephenson is so low or high for me. A pitcher who has one year below 1.30 WHIP, who popped at below that-.83 WHIP-in 13.1 innings for the Pirates is not one I want to keep; but could easily see our Front Office going another direction.

Conclusions seem so final; still I think I am ready.

Gary’s Prediction:

Protect: Mike Burrows, Endy Rodriguez, Matt Gorski, Cody Bolton

Cut: Hoy Park, Ryan Vilade, Jeremy Beasly, Ali Sanchez

Variable: Malcom Nunez – I could see them adding him, but I’m pretty firm here, I wouldn’t.

Craig, the only guy we really glazed over is Blake Sabol, and Alex Stumpf reported some execs expressed he’d get taken. I don’t see it, but I suppose we could see them toss him a spot too and I’d just pick another from the list of expendables we came up with.

Craig’s Prediction:

Protect: Mike Burrows, Endy Rodriguez, Malcom Nunez, Cody Bolton and Colin Selby

Cut: Jeremy Beasly, Tyler Heineman. Robert Stephenson (Non-Tender), Hoy Park and Junior Fernandez

Sabol is a special case, maybe falling into the man without a position scenario. It could make him intriguing, but it could also allow him to slip through. Much like Cal Mitchell last year my heart says yes, but my head says I’m not so sure.

The Wrap Up

Gary – First, man Craig, this was fun. We’ve done one of these every year since we started this site and every year it gets a little more difficult. One thing I want to point out here, the talent level is better than it’s been toward the top of the system. That’s obviously a good thing, but after this season, people should be aware, this is going to be a bloodbath. There is a very real possibility of losing players and wasting others depending on how Cherington handles things after 2023.

It’s also possible most of our readers won’t care because the MLB club could/should actually matter at the same time.

A final point for me, if Luis Ortiz didn’t get that surprise promotion and debut last year, I truly wonder if we’d advocate for him to be protected. His promotion to AAA and ultimate call up to the Bigs saved us from having a conversation about a 24 year old in AA with great stuff and control issues, who needs to develop a better off speed pitch. I say this for a couple reasons, one, we don’t always know who is going to pan out, and two, when the Pirates are going to suddenly believe in a guy who has those traditional hang ups, they tend to do it before we get to talking about Rule 5.

That’s what I got Craig, this was great brother.

Craig-This definitely was a good time as always my man; and, that’s a great point about Ortiz. It’s absolutely possible that we would have let a pitcher with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.142 WHIP fall through cracks; or, at the very least have him as one of the borderline guys that we would debate back and forth.

It’s funny how quickly a guy can go from a relative unknown to a player many want on the Opening Day Roster; but, I guess it goes the other direction as well. Last year Diego Castillo was a must protect as soon as the off-season began, and now he’s potentially expendable.

Each year as more of Cherington’s players-along with some Huntington holdovers-reach the upper levels, and graduate to the status of Rule 5 Eligible, these decisions are naturally going to involve a greater number of prospects. It’s the natural progression of stocking the system; and, one of the goals of this process.

The ability to deal from a position of strength.

Talking Pirates With Poni

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-eypkb-130ac41

In this SUPERSIZED episode of the podcast, Craig is joined by Andrew Fillipponi (aka The Poni Express) from 93.7 The Fan to talk everything Pittsburgh Pirates; including an disappointing year of development overall, some potential trade pieces and the future of Derek Shelton. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

2 Guys Talkin’ Trades Winter Meetings

 11-7-22 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno – While working today, it occurred to me that the 2023 WInter Meetings are being held from December 4th to the 7th. This is just a month away. Yikes. We are way behind here, as there’s a lot to get through. I feel that Ben Cherington could be more active than he was at last year’s Winter Meetings.

But before we get to it, a quick announcement: my normal partner in crime, Joe Boyd, has too much on his plate for the time being so he won’t be joining us. (Fear not, as Joe will be back for the 2023 August Trade Deadline. That still feels weird to say: August Deadline). 

Pinch hitting for Joe: Corey Shrader! 

Corey Shrader –  Thanks, JV I am pleased to get the nod from the Skipper to take some cuts at these trade pieces for the time being. I think this off season could very well be a revelatory one in terms of direction this ship sails. Whether that means steering this team toward a “competition window” or giving everyone a glimpse of just how far that might be off of the horizon. There are some pretty large elephants in the room, so to speak, for Pittsburgh when it comes to names that fans should expect to hear rumored at the Winter Meetings. Do you reckon we should cover those first?

JV- Corey, I couldn’t have put it better.  As I see it, there are two elephants in the room: Bryan Reynolds and David Bednar. As the meetings get closer, we are going to hear these names pop up. This is not our fault, that needs to be said.  Neither Corey nor myself are advocating for the Pirates to trade these guys. But like it or not, we will hear their names, so we have to take a look at what those trades would have to look like. Let’s tackle Reynolds first as I think he’s less likely to be moved. 

Fangraphs has not released the 2023 ZIPS projections so we are flying a little blind here. Normally this is where Joe would bust out the surplus value chart, but we have to play a bit of guessing game Corey. 

CS-Trading Bryan Reynolds would not be an easy task to endeavor upon and for several reasons. Not only is he a fan favorite but he also happens to be one of the premier outfielders in baseball. Since his debut in 2019 Reynolds has accumulated 12.5 fWAR, a figure good enough to put him 11th among all qualified OFs and 34th among all position players. To boot, he is smack in the middle of his prime and just entering his ARB 2 year thus making him very attractive as a potential trade piece. Fans heard his name mentioned a lot this past offseason, we will be hearing it again. 

JV-In other words, Bryan Reynpolds is really good at baseball and Ben Cherington should look to get an extension done ASAP. However, that’s not why we’re here.

If we revisit the projections ZIPS had on Reynolds last year we would have a surplus around 45.8 million.  If we adjust the WAR down to 3 a year we would get an SV  33.2 Million. That’s the range we have to work with here. 

 Can one of us make sense of moving Bryan Reynolds? And that’s the thing here Corey, this is no longer about trading your gold in for cash. If BC is to move Reynolds he needs to make the roster better in 2023. Let’s see if one of us can do just that. 

3.723 Zips WAR3
3.624 Zips WAR3
3.125 Joe WAR3
10.4Total WAR9
x9MCost of winx9M
93.6MTotal Value81M
-47.8MSalary-47.8M
45.8MSurplus Value33.2M

CS- As Justin mentioned, our initial thoughts on any trade of Reynolds would be “I’d rather not.” But, let’s look at what I feel are two realistic enough types of trade packages. The first being a mostly prospect heavy package that would likely indicate our competition window is not as imminent. With the second being something that addresses a big club need right now & through what most would consider a window of competitive baseball in Pittsburgh.

Here is my attempt at scenario 1, the prospect heavy approach:

Trade Partner: Miami Marlins

Marlins Get: Bryan Reynolds – OF (MLB)

Bucs Get: Braxton Garrett – LHP (MLB)

Jose Salas – SS (50 FV, ETA 2025, SV $28)

Jake Eder – P (45+ FV, ETA 2023 pending rehab, SV $6)

Jacob Miller – P (40+ FV, ETA 2027, SV $3)

This is a move that I would call more setting up the future, but, adding Garrett would give the Pirates an MLB ready starting pitcher who flashed very solid stuff across 17 starts in 2022.

Braxton Garrett could likely slot in as the Bucs rotation as their # 3 starting pitcher for 2023. He is somewhat of a luxury piece for the Fish as their pitching depth is bonkers. While Garrett does not appear to have top of the rotation stuff, he would add much needed quality starting pitching ability. Working a very attractive Slider/Sinker approach with two other off-speed offerings and a four-seam fastball mixed in, Garrett makes an interesting target for a team without much quality major league starting pitching.

By my estimation, the crown jewel of this would be the 19-year-old shortstop, Jose Salas. I can already hear you asking, “why would we need another shortstop, we have a lot of middle infielders?” and that is a fair question. But, in a prospect trade for Reynolds, it must include a prospect with star potential. Salas has that. In fact, he could be one of the most underrated prospects in the game. He possesses a plus hit tool and base running, is a big-bodied kid (6’2”, 191) who should develop power as he matures. While power development is never assured – one could also look at his plate patience at A+ as a 19-year-old as yet another positive indicator of the ceiling (9.2% BB to 18.9% K).  The production dropped off from the A to A+ jump, but he was far from overmatched at the dish. He has the look to me of a prospect that could absolutely rocket up the ranks and the minors.

Jake Eder would be a very nice addition. Eder is not without risk as he is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but, Eder possesses an otherworldly slider. He tuned up AA in his 2021 season prior to injury, so it stands to reason that once he begins his rehab process, assuming no setbacks, Eder should be a quick moving arm. There is definite bullpen risk here – however – that risk could just see Eder become a bullpen ace given his premium stuff.

The final piece would be 2022 draftee, Jacob Miller. Miller was just drafted this past summer, so he has not played much professionally yet, but he features good breaking balls & ideal size for starting pitching prospects. Without premium velocity, type of prospect is very much a lottery ticket. It is also worth noting that, as always, TINSTAAPP.

A final word on dealing with Miami. This would be the kind of package I would go for. There are plenty of other attractive pitching based packages given their insane prospect depth & high end development system for arms. It is my personal preference to base packages around a position player/bat that can be said to have a true All-Star ceiling, hence my desire to add Salas as the main piece. Truth be told, you could probably build 3 or 4 different iterations of deals with MIA that would all be really compelling.

The second scenario will require some indulgence, but here is what I would consider to be a “our rebuild is nearing an end” .move:

Trade Partner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Get: Bryan Reynolds – OF

Pirates Get: Will Smith – C

I did say this would require some indulgence, didn’t I?

Yes, I know that two of Pittsburgh’s top prospects are listed as catchers. Yes, I know that the Dodgers have all the resources in the world & they don’t need to trade to accomplish team building goals. But there have already been some rumblings about the possibility of Smith being made available this winter. Also, the Dodgers have uber-prospect Diego Cartaya rapidly rising & 2022 draftee Dalton Rushing presenting like one of the steals of the draft. Furthermore, they have been linked to the idea of moving Mookie Betts to 2b in the pursuit of adding additional outfield help. So, what if they could add a very cost-controlled Reynolds and still be able to flex their financial muscle to acquire additional players via free agency?

Do I necessarily believe the rumors that the Dodgers would move Smith? Well, probably not given that he is one of the best catchers in the game, Austin Barnes is not quite good enough to take on a full workload, Cartaya is likely to open in AA, & Rushing even lower. But, it is curious that these rumors have been seen at all. Often, if there is smoke this early, there could be fire later. Combine that smoke with the fact that Pittsburgh has absolutely zero big league catching. None. So perhaps the match is not as far-fetched as it appears at first glance.

Smith will be the same age as Reynolds in 2023 (28). With Smith just entering his ARB 1 year, he would fill the catching void for the next 5+ years with All Star caliber play. But what about Henry Davis & Endy Rodriguez? Yes, what about them? Well, this trade for Smith would open various possibilities. 

Moving Davis off C, where he likely is not defensively adequate, and into the OF would make a lot of sense. His arm would be strong enough to play in any major league outfield and his athleticism would play quite well in a corner.

Endy is a trickier case to rationalize given that reports have him being a capable defender a C. He can play any number of positions from 2B, 1B, DH, C, some OF.  So, while moving players off of position isn’t always a solution, it feels like a reasonable path here. Endy sort of presents like a less athletic Dalton Varsho. A swiss-army knife with a bat that could play as well or better than the aforementioned Varsho. 

Another option would be exploring trading one of Davis or Endy to address other needs at the MLB level right now. Perhaps pitching? Both have a lot of value.

I will admit, this one requires something of an imagination, but crazier trades have happened. Perhaps the most unlikely part here is the notion that LA would seriously move their prize big league back-stop without a plug & play replacement immediately on hand. The rumors existing about Smith though make it hard not to dream on some. 

JV- 2 trade packages that present the dilemma in moving Bryan Reynolds. Cherington would need to add players that open the  2023 season in Pittsburgh or at the very least are close enough that they make their debut in 2023, it’s just not an easy endeavor and if you think my proposals look any easier, you think wrong.

The Trades

JV- After reading Coreys deals I noticed that one deal is built with prospects and the other with a one for one swap of an MLB player at a premium position. So I’m going to use the same teams and flip the coin. Let’s start with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers werel the hands on favorite to repeat all year, and man what a regular season they had but they fell short of their goal. Looking at 2023 they will still be stacked and they will still be one of the hands on favorites to win it all. One spot they can upgrade though? One Cody Bellinger. 

LA Dodgers get- Bryan Reynolds- OF ($47M)

PIrates get – Bobby Miller-SP– ETA 2023– FV 50($21M)

It’s easy to fall in love with his FB as it sits at 97 and can hit triple digits topping off at 102, he still needs to command it better and like Quinn Priester you want that kind of heat to be more dominant. Add in a slider that has plus plus ability, a change up that could play and you get a promising upside starter. The K rate(29.8-33.3%) and walk rates(4.8-81%) have been elite, the stuff is there and it’s awesome. He has the look of a guy one adjustment away and look out. 

Andy Pages-OF– ETA 2023 – FV 50($28M)

OK, by now it’s no secret I would love for the Pirates to acquire Andy Pages as this is the 3rd time I’ve used him in one of these trade proposals. Just 22 and the power has already developed, smacking 31 and 26HR the last two years he has the kind of power we can dream on and that he could hang in CF with that power is a bonus. He’s not without weakness as he hit .236 in AA this past season, however that was accompanied by an OBP of .336 due to his to eye and patience at the plate(10.9% walk rate in 2022) He needs to get his launch angle under control(24-25% per FG) this leads to a lot of flyouts and a few strikeouts(24.5% in 2022). Perhaps we can get Ke’Bryan Hayes and Andy together to swap some of the launch angle? 

Cody Bellinger–OF– Last year of ARB, 18M projection

OK, so Bellinger wouldn’t be part of the actual trade here, but I don’t see the LAD going to ARB with him with the Reynolds acquisition, nor do I see another team claiming him at 18M? If I’m BC I’m on the phone with Cody’s agent as I am completing the deal to bring him to PNC. Once a rising star his 1.9 WAR does not justify an 18M contract, this  would be a great gamble by the Bucs if they can bring him in, even if by claiming him and avoiding arbitration. He’s the same age as Reynolds, 27 and perhaps a new city would do him wonders.

Miami Vice-

Kim Ng has a Bryan Reynolds crush, that’s not really a secret anymore. She still needs an OF upgrade and a LH bat. Can we find a deal here with Miami’s pitching surplus? 

I see 3 players that make sense for the Buccos. Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. Cabrera and Rogers come with red flags but high ceiling. Cabrera has had an injury and an IL stint every season while Rogers(LH) doesn’t seem to be the guy he was in his rookie season. Lopez is the safe bet, but I have a hard time walking away from Cabrera.

Marlins get- Bryan Reynolds–OF-($47M)

Travis Swaggerty–OF–FV 45($6M)

Pirates get- Edward Cabrera-SP–MLB 5 yrs of control–FV 50($21M)

It’s really hard to gauge what Cabrer’a’ SV is due to how much time he has spent on IL so I am using his prospect status here. This a gamble by Ben Cherington due to the red flags, but Cabrera’s stuff and velo always return, a great sign. The talent here just isn’t in question and if he stays healthy he would give the Bucs a great 1-2 punch with Contreras. 

JJ Bleday–OF–MLB– FV 40

Pirates take a chance here, and yes you’ve seen his name in these trades proposals before. JJ has graduated but with a -0.3 WAR in 65 games he doesn’t hold a ton of value but the upside and power is worth taking a look at. 

I think it’s possible the Bucs could add one more piece here but the price for Cabrera could be much higher so I’ll hold it here. As I mentioned, it’s tough to get to an SV here.

Final Thoughts

JV- In the end I hope we end up hearing that the front office has extended Reynolds, not traded him. But until that happens we will see a lot of trade proposals, we will hear a lot of trade rumors. But in the end putting something together that makes sense for both teams just isn’t easy. The price  won’t just be high Corey, it needs to be right, it needs to fit the window of contention and that window is real close to being open here.

Oddly I think both the Malins and the Bucco fans will hate my offer here. One side will say I’m nuts and that the Marlins don’t have to move Cabrera. The other will claim that you don’t add an injury prone starter. 

The LAD will think I’m bonkers for moving a “future ace” for Reynolds. 

The only win is to get the extension done.

CS- I think you hit it square on the head here. The most favorable route for this team would be an extension. There is nothing more I’d like than to not have to read all of the rumors this offseason and the “typical Pirates” remarks. Should Pittsburgh decide to move their best veteran player it needs to be a near perfect fit. In either adding real, big league ready assets, or adding possible star level prospects talent. 

If I may editorialize some to close out, I don’t think that fans will be pleased with a prospect heavy return here.  The signal that it would send, in my opinion, is that we aren’t that close to having a winner. While it may not technically be true, that is the vibe that would surround it. Frankly, I do not think that this front office has that kind of good-will built up. Luckily for them, I think keeping their star outfielder would both establish more fan faith and move them closer to a winning club.

JV- If Nutting is in the business of putting asses in the seats, this is the best way to do. Get your best vet extended and add around him!

Next week doesn’t get any easier for us as we take a crack at making sense of moving the home town hero: David Bednar.