By Gary Morgan – 11/7/22 – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Busy week, both for me and baseball. The World Series just wrapped up with Houston grabbing another title, and with the last out came the official start of the offseason. In fact, would you believe we’ve already had our first offseason trade? That’s right, the Rockies acquired Dylan Spain from the Atlanta Braves for Sam Hilliard.

Hot stove season is upon us and tomorrow, our first 2-guys talkin’ piece drops to get it going.

Let’s have at it.

1. Important Dates

This offseason is gonna keep us moving, no doubt, but let’s start right here with a quick look at what’s coming and when.

November 8th through the 10th – GM meetings. This doesn’t mean they’ll all wheel and deal, but when 30 GM’s get together, hey, let’s just say they might do what they do. They’ll be taking place in Las Vegas this year.

November 10th – Depending on contract language, the vast majority of contract options have to be decided on.
This is also the date where teams must offer qualifying offers to free agents.
Lastly, this date is when Free Agency officially begins.

November 15th – All teams must add players eligible for Rule 5 protection to their 40-man. We’ve been talking about this, but that’s how quick it’s coming.

November 18th – Non-Tender deadline. This is when all players eligible for arbitration must have a tender or become free agents. Many of the decisions here, will really be made on November 15th. If a player survives the 40-man for the 15th, chances are they’re being tendered.

November 20th – Free agents must accept or reject qualifying offers on this date.

December 5th through 8th – Winter Meetings in San Diego. Some of what happens here the base will have been laid back in the first GM meetings.

December 7th – That’s right. Right in the middle of the Winter Meetings, the Rule 5 Draft will take place. Expect a whole bunch of minor moves in the days leading up to this.

January 13th – Teams and players who are eligible for arbitration submit figures if they haven’t already agreed to terms.

January 15th – 2023 International Signing Period.

Enough to digest? I think so.

2. You Should Want Better

I’m conflicted at times. At least once a week someone asks me “Will the Pirates re-sign Ben Gamel?”

Now, I like the guy, and the player, but really, shouldn’t you and the Pirates for that matter want better? I mean folks, Ben was a 0 WAR player in 2022.

Further, most of these same people are completely convinced that Kevin Newman, a 1.1 WAR player shouldn’t be retained no matter how cheap he is.

Hey, that’s being a fan I suppose, you like who you like and I get it, but we’re talking here about a player who even on this team isn’t a lock to beat out a rookie, I’d like to see them sign someone even with a 2.0 WAR figure. Someone who could actually be a starter if they needed to be for a while.

It doesn’t really matter, it’s not like they’re listening to our conversations and making judgements based on what they hear, but even through the lens of Nutting being cheap, you can hope for better than Gamel pretty easily.

3. Keys to a Turnaround

Talking about subjects like this, man it’s so easy to just dumb them down to PLAY BETTER!!!, or SPEND MONEY!!! Of course those two things are there and accurate, but lets talk about what’s here, and where real improvement needs to come from.

Starting Rotation – The Pirates have Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker, Johan Oviedo, Zach Thompson, Mike Burrows, Quinn Priester, Bryse Wilson and I’m sure they’ll sign someone. Keller needs to hold serve, Roansy needs to take a step, JT needs to crap or get off the pot, Johan needs to prove it can translate. Of all these things, to me, nothing is more important than Roansy Contreras not regressing. He’s been written in pen since Spring of 2022 for damn near everyone, but Contreras must take a step in 2023. Do that and 2 days every rotation this team has a damn good chance, that’s improvement.

Outfield – Someone other than Bryan Reynolds needs to be a star. Jack Suwinski needs to strike out less and keep the power growing. Andujar has to look like it’s 2018, Mitchell has to swing like he has in spells. When I really sit back and look, I’d say Suwinski has the most on his shoulders. He must improve as a hitter and more than anything, prove he can hit lefties too.

Bullpen – The Bullpen will improve simply from having everyone back from the IL, but more than that, this bullpen needs to define and stick to roles. Not every spot in the pen is created equal and not every guy can do every task. Watch/Earn/Deploy.

4. Loaded Free Agent Board Again

Last year was seen as an insane free agency period for short stops, well, wait for this one. Look at this list of names likely to be on the board. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts (if he opts out), Carlos Correa (very likely to opt out), damn, that’s a list.

The Dodgers are likely to land one of them for sure, but there is just so much talent at short stop around the league it’s truly insane. Gone are the days of slick fielding judy hitters, in are the days of best player on the field being the captain of the infield too.

Storylines are going to really get crazy this offseason. You all know Arron Judge is likely on the move (San Francisco doesn’t plan to miss BTW), but quite possibly there is no story more intriguing than what the Angels do with Shohei Ohtani. He’s signed for 2023 for 30 million, and a free agent in 2024. The likelihood he gets dealt this winter is sky high, and while he could go anywhere for the right price, only a select few could afford what he’ll require in free agency. How do you valuate a player with MVP stats at the plate and Cy Young Stuff on the mound? 50 million? How long? Can he keep doing this for 3 more years? 5 more?

Juan Soto is likely going to get 20 million in arbitration this year, likely even more next year. If the Padres find they can’t extend him (psst, probably can’t) when do they trade him? This year? Next year? The stakes get higher and higher every year for some of these mega stars getting tossed around the league.

5. Get Better, Needs to Look Better

I’m saying this now, knowing full well that the Pirates don’t have an opportunity to start showing that until March, but it just strikes me that “Get Better” is becoming a catchphrase and not a positive one.

I don’t blame the Pirates for using it, because of course it’s true, the players do need to get better, the coaches need to get better, the development system needs to get better, but 2023 has to be the year we start to say, they got better here, they got better there.

Expanding the coaching staff to provide focus on defense is a positive step toward that, at least it shows the recognition that in order to achieve it there must be different steps taken.

Bottom line, by the end of 2023, Get Better will still be there, but lets hope there’s some Got to go along with it, if not, every fan has a right to officially wonder if they’ve simply bought another mantra that isn’t anything more than a time buying mechanism.

10-31-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Hello, and welcome to this week’s Five Pirates Thoughts at Five. Before I start today, I wanted to just note, all this Pirates stuff is not my primary job, so I apologize for how few pieces I’ve been able to put out recently. It’ll pick up soon, and in the background we’re researching and preparing to tackle all the issues.

I’d also be remiss to not wish all of you a Happy Halloween! Really hope those of you who have little buggers out there Trick or Treating have a wonderful and precipitation free event.

Let’s get into an extra spooky edition of the thoughts…

1. A Real Slasher

It’s almost time, the 40 man protection game is important if only because we’re at the stage now where the Pirates have far more prospects close to the league than spots to protect them. Time to really discuss this a bit. I’ll dig in deeper soon, but let this serve as a starting point.

These are the players I’m most concerned about ensuring they protect.
Endy Rodriguez
Matt Gorski
Mike Burrows

Now the guys they need to consider.
Malcom Nunez
Cody Bolton

Now this is a gross oversimplification of this subject. There are a ton of decisions upstream that have to take place to make the room, and a bunch of snubs down steam too. At the end of the day, these 5 are the ones I’m most concerned about.

Endy, and Burrows are simply no brainers. If they aren’t protected, they’ll be taken, and there’s little doubt about it. Gorski showed incredible power last year, and I could see someone taking a swing at him.

Bolton, I keep him in the consider range if only because he’s at least borderline to be selected, Malcom Nunez because you have 2 first base prospects and I have to think they’ll protect the one they just acquired, or at least think about it.

Still a bunch to think about here, but this is my starting point, at most they need 5 holes. Keep in mind too, they will leave some of these holes open for free agents, fortunately the cut options are plentiful if you ask me, but that’s for another time.

2. The Ring

For the first time since 1950, the World Series doesn’t feature a single American born, African American player.

Now, I’ll be honest, I had no idea until I saw it reported, then saw Dusty Baker’s comments when he was informed, and asked for comment.

“Nah, don’t tell me that,’’ Baker says. “That’s terrible for the state of the game. Wow! Terrible. I’m ashamed of the game. 

“Quote me. I am ashamed of the game.’’

My initial reaction was that too. Hard to believe that we’re here after decades of attempts to diversify the sport, but baseball has some hurdles other sports don’t encounter today.

I’m not someone who believes I understand every subject from all sides, sure I have opinions but I’m not capable of truly understanding everything if for only having different life experiences than others.

So I reached out to someone I banter with on Twitter quite a bit, Wayne Moody, author of the book The Real Story of the Negro Leagues, which is a really good read if you get the opportunity.

Here’s what he had to say…

“The first problem is organized travel Leagues starting in Little League. The cost of participating in these leagues often leaves inner city kids out. Also, you need a bat, glove, spikes, etc. to participate, as opposed to just a ball for basketball, and provided equipment for football. The second factor is, you no longer see kids playing pick up baseball. When I was coming up you had to race to the field to get an opportunity to play. The third factor is, in high school, kids want to play in front of crowds. Basketball and football provide big crowds, while the crowds are sparse in baseball. Finally, Sabermetrics is selectively taking Black players out the game. You no longer see speedy outfields. Balls dropping in that used to be caught, because you have players like Kyle Schwarber in the outfield, because Sabermetrics values guys that hit 40 home runs and strikeout 250 times. All these are reasons baseball has become boring. It’s just a different game, and not for the better.”

Now, I have to say, the first part of his statement, is exactly where my head went. Baseball has become almost as hart to break into as hockey. It’s become a game that you have to start young and almost have to have a champion to push you through. Travel teams, equipment expenses, independent training, and even if you overcome all that, most scouts aren’t scheduling trips to inner city fields looking for that nugget of talent.

I’d also add that the NFL and NBA are an arguably richer, and at least faster to a payday option for a young athlete. Even if going pro isn’t in the stars, college teams in baseball don’t have nearly the same amount of scholarships to offer.

So how do Latin players get around the barrier to entry that money causes here in the states? Well, for the most part it’s Soccer and Baseball. If you show half an ounce of ability there are 20 drooling scouts there waiting with a pen.

I asked Wayne a follow up, how could this be addressed. “Need more people in the communities to step up. A lot of talent in inner city communities”, Wayne Said.

Over the years we’ve seen every MLB team launch some sort of city outreach program to get more kids playing the game, and while that effort is appreciated, unfortunately those programs simply aren’t going to keep up with the extra effort it takes to shepherd a kid from introduction to advanced level baseball.

Baseball has always been proud of breaking the color barrier, but now they need to find a way to make baseball more attractive to the communities that all these teams play in. When a sports starts to become primarily seen as one that requires resources to really advance, interest tends to wain, and I think that’s where we are.

Jackie Robinson once said “I don’t like needing anyone for anything”, but if this game is to attract more American born African Americans to the game, I think we need more from everyone.

3. The Federal Street Horror

For some, the simple fact that your favorite baseball team isn’t playing on Halloween is a horror in and of itself, but for me, another year of letting it play out is potentially an unforced error.

This team will go and buy some help, I just don’t think it’s going to be enough, mainly because they won’t aim high enough.

To me, a minimal investment could potentially get the Pirates into .500 territory, and .500 territory get’s you into the post season conversation.

It’s 100% fine to understand that 2024 is much more likely, but deciding 2023 is out of the question before you even start it, well that’s not in the spirit of competition. I feel this club faced largely the same setup in 2012.

The talent was starting to make it’s way to the big club. They needed some veteran leadership, and more than anything they needed to feel like the team believed in them. The team left gaping holes in their roster. Not trusting the makeup of the team enough to build on it, and caught with their pants down when the team overperformed out of the gate.

I’d love to not look back on 2023 as a missed opportunity to pry the window open, even if it’s nothing more than flirting with the playoffs, and in order for that to be the case, they have to invest some capital instead of crossing their fingers and hoping things will fall into place.

A solid starting pitcher from the left side, a solid catcher who ensures even if Davis and Endy aren’t ready they’re covered, a professional first baseman, and a corner outfielder who has 2 WAR in his game minimally and this team is likely in the hunt for .500. That’s not a lot when your payroll is this small, and none of it would block a single prospect.

The only reason not to do it is to not spend money, plain and simple.

What separates this site from many others is I won’t allow this belief to color everything I write the rest of the year. In other words, once they decide to go in a direction, I’ll mention what I’d have done different, but then it will move toward chronicling how it goes. The alternative is just finger wagging, and honestly, it’s boring.

4. Rocky Horror Awards Season Show

Bryan Reynolds is a finalist for Silver Slugger, and Ke’Bryan Hayes is a finalist for the Gold Glove.

The horror part comes in when you know one of them should win and probably won’t.

Let’s start with Reynolds, it’s his second consecutive nomination for the award and his competition is Mookie Betts, Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto. His slash line of .262/.345/.461 with 27 bombs an .806 OPS and only 62 RBI is going to undoubtedly leave him short, but congrats for being nominated.

Hayes on the other hand, numerically is superior in every major defensive statistic to his closest competition Nolan Arenado. He legitimately should win this award, but I have my doubts. First off, Arenado has won the award nine years running, and while it shouldn’t be this way, historically this is an award that reputation wins out more often than not.

Hayes and Arenado had the same amount of errors. Hayes led all of major league third basemen in Defensive runs saved at +24, Arenado had +19. Hayes had +18 Outs above average, Nolan had +15.

Look, it’s unquestionably in Hayes’ favor here, but it’s close enough that I could easily see Arenado getting his 10th consecutive Gold Glove.

Offensive acumen shouldn’t play a role, but it often does. And don’t get this confused, who should win the gold glove doesn’t have to be the same answer to which player you’d rather have on your team. All it should mean is which guy was the better defender. That answer is unquestionably and statistically proven mind you, Ke’Bryan Hayes.

5. The Walking Dread

Not trusting this offense to produce led Pirates management to dream up an offensive philosophy of drawing walks being the best method at their disposal to increase on base percentage for a team they saw really struggling to do so naturally.

The Pirates tied for 17th in the league with 476 walks, and it led to one of the worst on base percentages in their history. Good for 28th in the league the Pirates OBP sat at .291 only beaten by the Oakland A’s and the Detroit Tigers.

The philosophy led to taking pitches, a bunch of them, and the Pirates finished 3rd in all of MLB with 1,497 strikeouts. Only bested by the LA Dodgers with 1,539 and the Braves with 1,498.

Clearly those two clubs had several other avenues to create offense.

On base percentage is of course important, but this team sacrificed a whole lot of offensive potential by trying to force it up with one metric. It’s something that has to change, and part of why it’s so unfathomable they’re returning the same exact offensive staff.

It wouldn’t be the first time a coach reinvented himself and his style if he manages to get better out of this club by changing his philosophy, but since his has spanned multiple teams and years, I’m not sure I’m holding my breath that this leopard is changing his spots.

10-24-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Not that it should be a surprise, but the Pirates didn’t really do much since we last talked. Oh sure they went and claimed yet another waiver catcher, but nothing substantial was done. That doesn’t mean we have nothing to discuss, 2023 is arguably the most important season since 2018 as far as really putting our arms around where and when this thing is headed.

Let’s Go…

1. Astros and Phillies

So the World Series is set, the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies will square off for the 2022 title.

First, I completely didn’t see Philly getting here. I didn’t believe in the pitching enough to ever predict they’d win any of the series they were involved in, but they did it.

I say that because clearly my predictions haven’t become reality. That said, how can I not predict yet another outcome? Here’s the thing, I still haven’t learned my lesson, I simply can’t go Philly here either, the Astros are just way too complete, way too good for me to believe the Phillies have enough to get past them.

That said, they sure did catch fire in these playoffs, leaving a wake of other teams who feel the new system wasn’t fair to their regular season output behind them.

The Astros haven’t even lost yet.

This should be a fun series. Two really strong lineups and so long as games don’t get too deep two good pitching staffs. The Astros have an advantage with their bullpen and certainly experience. They’ve been here, and not just a little, they’ve lived in the playoffs for quite some time.

All complaints aside, the playoffs aren’t about the best team winning, they’re about the hottest team winning. Houston has a chance to make both true, but Philly is showing why you never laugh off fighting and getting in the Wild Card mix.

Basically, if you see the Wild Card within reach, well, reach, it just might mean a trip to the promised land.

2. Speaking of Not Reaching…

This Pirates team will improve in 2023. I’m not ready to make predictions as to how much, I’m not prepared to tell you whom will be most responsible for it, but I feel very confident that the team is largely beyond filling a roster with guys we know won’t matter.

The Pitching staff will be deeper, the position players will be more seasoned, and some of the bigger named prospects will start to arrive too. It’s set up for at least a measurable uptick ok?

Now my issue is pretty simple, I think they would be swimming out of their depth a bit to reach for a wildcard unless they add some more sure fire talent from the outside. A good starter, a couple nice and proven bullpen arms, a solid veteran catcher and preferably a bonafide first baseman and this team at the very least could boast a squad they believe could compete for .500 and conversely a wild card berth.

Problem is, I think they’ll stop short.

I feel confident they’ll go get a catcher, I even feel good they’ll get a starting pitcher. The other two spots, yeah, not so much.

First base is a thin market and the best fits I’m afraid will get much more than their estimates, on top of wanting a better, more probable, situation.

I can think of ways this team could overcome that. They could trade prospect depth to sure up some of these holes, or they could spend some money and fill them but Ben Cherington has shown little will to do so.

Trey Mancini makes a ton of sense for instance, but he’s going to make a ton of sense to a bunch of teams, and I’ve been around long enough to know this isn’t something the Pirates often win on. Now, that’s largely because they don’t even bother to play the game, but if I’m Mancini, after going through what he has, I’m not sure I’m looking to again be on a team dying for a Wild Card.

The last time the Pirates pried open a window, I felt a bit of spending could have cracked it open a year earlier, I feel the exact same right now. 2023 doesn’t have to not matter, and we aren’t talking a boatload of cast to change that designation. I’m talking a 65 million dollar payroll folks, not 150 million or something crazy. Just something that doesn’t force you to lean on rookies or wade through the waiver wire because you didn’t bother signing anyone qualified to start at a corner infield position.

If they enter 2023 with highly visible holes again, just know, it’s a choice.

3. Extension Season

Very early into 2022 we were treated to an extension announcement. Ke’Bryan Hayes was inked, and it felt like the beginning of locking up key players.

More weren’t in the cards last year as it turned out and now the Pirates face some key decisions on some guys. Let’s go through everyone they could and maybe should consider complete with pros and cons.

Mitch Keller – Finally! Finally Mitch Keller stepped up and showed something. It took 3 years, but now he’s entering his first year of arbitration and the Pirates have some decisions to make. At 27, the Pirates control his rights through 2025, but considering they haven’t really come out of this rebuild yet, he might be a competitive pitcher on a competitive team for all of 1 or 2 years before reaching free agency or worse, being moved in the middle of things really starting to look good. Some will say let him prove it’s for real, I say, if you want to wait and have him prove it, prepare to not be able to get this deal done. The Pirates have worked hard and so has Mitch to get him to this point, it’d be a shame to not see him produce right here.
My verdict: Extend Keller for 5 years buying out 2 years of his free agency.

Bryan Reynolds – He’s signed already for 2023 at 6.75 Million, then he has two more years of arbitration to follow. The Pirates own his rights through 2025 and he’ll be 31 when that’s up, but again, if you don’t want to be forced to move or lose your star outfielder in the middle of things getting good, the Pirates must act. Bryan wants to be here, but buying a year or two of free agency isn’t going to be nearly as appealing to him as it would have been prior to 2022. Now they’d have to pay and likely for a while if they want to keep him. I don’t see Bryan as a guy who’s going to fall off a cliff in his early 30’s, but he’s not going to want to extend here until say his age 33 season then hit free agency. To me the Pirates would have to be willing to extend themselves a bit.
My verdict: Extend Bryan through 2028 buying out 3 years of his free agency. Build in a mutual option if you must but make sure this guy is here when it matters, he’s suffered through a whole lot of the opposite on the way here.

David Bednar – He’ll enter his first year of arb in 2024 and under team control through 2026. We all saw how the bullpen fell apart when he went down with a back injury, but his loss wasn’t the only one they suffered so that’s not entirely fair or accurate. I’m not a huge fan of extending bullpen guys in general but this is an All Star closer and his arbitration is bound to get expensive and pretty quick providing he stays healthy.
My verdict: Nah, not yet, if ever. I love the guy but he’s already 28 and won’t hit free agency until he’s 32. I’d rather just ride him hard for 4 years and move on. A team that (even if self inflicted) doesn’t have a reasonable payroll can’t afford to have one of their bigger ones be a closer with a potentially nagging back issue.

Oneil Cruz – Honestly, it’s now or never. He’s 24, he’ll be 30 when he hits free agency and likely a monster with all of 5 or 6 places who can afford his services. OK, maybe I’m getting ahead of myself a bit here, but he’s already a good player and bound to get better. A team like Pittsburgh, well they need to harken back to Starling Marte. That’s a rare talent, multi tooled, and sure to price himself out of town real quick.
My verdict: Yes, and I’d do it right now while his progression is still at least a question. Give him a season to prove it and you might as well start bracing yourself for his eventual trade or contract expiration. Give him 8 or 9 years and call it a day. Front load it so he’s movable later if you must.

Roansy Contreras – Man this one is tough. He’s 23, he won’t be a free agent until he’s 29. He looked really good this year but is it just me or is it almost too good to be true? I think the Pirates would do well to extend a guy like this, but it’s a fine line between James MacDonald and Jameson Taillon. I think I’d be tempted to give him another year to marinate, but man, as with so many others on this list, that can work two ways.
My verdict: Yeaaaah, but I’m queasy about it. If you’re going to do it though, go big, a couple years of free agency isn’t going to do much more than save some money, at 23 I’d pop 9 or 10 on this kid, but I’ll be really honest, it wouldn’t take much to sway me back.

That’s what I got, I could make a case for JT Brubaker but I really doubt many of you would see the evil genius in it. I think he probably winds up being a bullpen arm but I believe in the stuff to the point I’d like to keep him around almost like a Brent Suter type who could start in a pinch or be a long man, maybe even back end type. A modest 5 year deal keeps a mid range piece here but I’m not down for the argument right now it’ll cause.

Keep in mind, they could do all of these and still not hit even 80 million this year. This is also how you’ll see the bulk of payroll increases take place here. If it’s truly different, these are the types of things they need to be knocking off the list.

4. Come to Think of It…

Know what just hit me like a Mack truck last week? Everything we’ve watched, we haven’t seen one Ben Cherington draft pick make the majors yet. Not one.

Don’t get me wrong, it’d be awful fast if we had, but as we talk about timelines and some even start saying it’s already taken too long, it never really crossed my mind until recently that we simply haven’t seen anything that he’s drafted yet.

That’s not to say sit down and shut up, it’s more to say damn, we really aren’t all that far into this are we? Nick Gonzales and Henry Davis are probably the first two we’ll see and legitimately that should be this year for both but it just struck me that all of this non-progress we’ve seen has been brought in via trade, predated Cherington or acquired in another manner.

All of which don’t represent the typical work product for full rebuilds. They should have done more to at least prop up what talent they did have, but almost without fail, none of these rebuilds are considered close to achieving relevance have done so without first seeing some drafted fruit from the architect.

Maybe that’s why I feel such a strong pull to see 2023 improve.

5. Did You Fall In Love?

One danger of watching prospects grow from the lowest levels of the game over the course of years is you have a tendency to fall head over heels in love with them as players. As a fan, that’s entirely expected, and even completely fine, but as with most positive Pirates events, it’s paired with pain.

Reality is going to smack some people right in the jaw. Most of these kids won’t make it.

Take Travis Swaggerty for example. He was drafted in 2018, many have watched him with baited breath hoping he would help their team win but reality is, he just might not be that good. I mean, heading into 2022 he had to be just about everyone’s first outfield call up, then he got passed up by at least 3, maybe even 4 if you wanna count Ji-hwan Bae.

He could catch fire, and have everything click next year, but it sure seems like he might just not make it.

I’m not telling anyone to stop being a fan of a player, or turn your back on them if you like, but I will say you have to have that in the back of your mind as you’re watching prospects, you simply have to learn it’s really hard to be a MLB player. Even guys like Yu Chang have gotten further than a ton of first round picks.

These sorts of observations made me think of a “seven commandments” if you will for prospect observation. Let me know what you think.

1. Short Sample Size is Not Your Friend – Remember in the movie “Trouble with the Curve” how the big prospect hitter swung and missed like 3 times on a curve and all the execs started firing and promoting people? Yeah, movies aren’t real life peeps. You know exactly shit from a handful of at bats or a couple innings of work.
2. You Don’t Know What Warrants a Promotion – Every single year someone hits 300 or has a 70/30 K to walk rate and can’t earn a promotion. The things that hold players back are often really small and almost always invisible to the viewing public. Let’s just say, these guys have been around and they know when success will translate vs when reality awaits them at the next level, and they’re right more often than not.
3. Some Decisions Aren’t About the Player You’re Watching – A player may be working on learning the outfield or even being a DH more often than playing their position and it raises questions as to how good they are in the field, where they might play, and more. Sometimes though, it’s really more about wanting to get another player time at a spot. Keep in mind at any one time a minor league staff is teaching and trying to develop 30+ players, not everything is about your favorite.
4. AA and AAA Are Considered Similar Planes – This is different for every organization in baseball, but largely the top two levels are less and less seen as more than a step away from MLB. When a top prospect starts in AA, it no longer means they are “behind” or “farther away” it just means they can get playing time there more likely.
5. All Ballparks are Not Created Equal – You can’t just read box scores or stat sheets and think you know a player. Depending on where they play, the dimensions in ballparks or the wind tendencies in that area of the country could contribute negatively or positively. Greensboro is a great example. A ton of homeruns given up by a pitcher there or homeruns hit by a batter are very influenced by the extreme dimensions of that ballpark. Think MLB. Do you trust a pitcher who’s worked in Colorado and had a 4.50 ERA more than a guy who pitched in Detroit with a 4.50 ERA? Probably should, but it’s just like that.
6. Prospect Rankings are Like Political Polls – Look long enough and you’ll find one you like better. There are countless outfits who rank prospects and decide who’s on the top 100, what really matters is how each player does individually. For instance, Termarr Johnson ranks above every other Pirates Prospect, and he literally just got here. In reality, he’s probably not even the team’s 25th best prospect if you factor in readiness for the gig. They’re a guide, nothing more.
7. Trust People Who Actually Watch Them Play – These guys are good. They pick up on holes in swings, hitches in throwing motions, pitches that hang, velocity that can’t be controlled. If you really watch them and watch them enough that you can pick up on nuance you’ll see very quickly that anyone who writes about them nationally tends to lack that in person feel and it really matters. Take a guy like Liover Peguero, he made a ton of errors this year, but guys who watch him will tell you, the tools are there, the range is there, he rushes his throws on occasion and at the end of the day they feel pretty good about where he’s headed. Others will say he has X amount of errors and he stinks. That’s a gross oversimplification, but it’s also very true.