Eye On the Prize

7-22-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This is a better Pirates team than it was in 2021.

Not by leaps and bounds. Not to the degree most fans would consider enough, or even exciting, but better.

If I sat you down and made you commit to who on this roster in your mind must be here when this team is competitive, I’d be shocked to hear more than 5 or 6 names.

And yet, the pushback I see about potentially trading players like Jose Quintana, Daniel Vogelbach, Ben Gamel is just everywhere.

Some of it is just genuinely liking a player, I get that, I too like a guy like Ben Gamel but folks this is why these players are here.

Here’s what I really don’t understand. A player like Quintana in particular, he’s an older pitcher, he hasn’t thrown a large amount of innings since 2019, he’ll likely not last through the season without at least a rest period, and more than anything people, he isn’t signed next year.

You aren’t keeping him for 2 million in 2023 if that’s what you want to do. In fact, there is no guarantee he wants to be here. There’s nothing binding him to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he’s not a good enough player to get you a comp pick for letting him play out his contract. There literally is nothing to gain by keeping him aside from at best 10-14 more starts should they choose to ignore his arm health.

Here are his last 10 starts from Fangraphs.

Now what do you notice? He’s a good pitcher? This is someone to fight for? He’s a must keep asset?

Let me ask you this, if those were Mitch Keller’s stat lines over his last 10, is he a bum?

Thing is, Quintana has been exactly what the best case scenario looks like for a 2 million dollar veteran pitching reclamation project.

I mean, I still hear many of you routinely tell me that he’s “the best starter on the team”. And folks, hell no he isn’t. I’m sorry if this is coming across like I hate the guy or think he’s stunk, I don’t think that or feel that, but he’s not what you have built in your mind. He’s not even what you remember from April and May if you’re really honest with yourself.

Thing is, even if he was killing it, signings like this are acquired to help of course, but if you play baseball, and sign a one year deal, on a team that quite literally isn’t going to sniff the playoffs, well, trust me, Jose knew he was either going to pitch himself into a DFA or a trade. There was never a scenario in which he was finishing 2022 as a Pittsburgh Pirate.

OK, so if you feel you need to have him next year return, the Pirates would have to go out and sign him. It’s likely he’s not going to accept another 1 year deal, it’s even more likely he’s going to want paid based on what he provided this season too. 2 years, 4-5 million per would probably get it done, but in my mind, I’d rather put 5-7 in the bucket and get a real upgrade. Maybe a guy that won’t shock me if he gives 150 innings.

Either way, he’s not signed. Even if by some chance he’s better than the Bryse Wilson we’ve seen in his last few call up starts, you’re talking about keeping a guy around on the off chance he delivers 3-4 more wins which might be the difference between 68 and 71 victories. If the Pirates can get a prospect that helps years from now instead of those 3-4 wins, I honestly can’t fathom not doing it.

Back in 2017 the Pirates traded Tony Watson, a vastly superior player who was on his last year with the Pirates for Angel German and Oneil Cruz. 5 years later I think you’re probably pretty pleased about it. I bet the Pirates cost themselves 3-4 wins in 2017 because they made that move, and I dare say Tony did more for this club and had more to give than Quintana at this stage of his career.

The point of all of that is really simple.

What the hell are you so anxious to hold on to? Do you really want to fight to keep temporary components who helped lead your team to what, 65-70 wins? I don’t. I want to keep seeing the prospects get time. I want to keep filtering things out. I want room for a Mike Burrows to make his debut. I’m looking to get Bligh Madris back up here. I’d much prefer to see Ji-hwan Bae finally get a shot.

Nah son, trade as many of these rentals and short term stop gaps as you can, and cut the others if you ask me. I’m certainly not hugging on tight, begging to make sure we see this team stick together. And I’m not looking to see them “grow together” either. A player like Quintana isn’t growing with anyone. His ceiling has come and gone. As I heard Chris Lunati put it recently on the Bucs in the Basement Podcast, this has all the hallmarks of a lightbulb getting bright before it burns out.

I know trades upset some of you, but this isn’t a team in position to think many players are to be kept. I also don’t think everyone really understands why players are put on the block in the first place. That’s evidenced by seeing people still put up whiny posts like “whaaa we could have Cutch and Marte with Reynolds, wouldn’t that be nice” I mean where do I begin?

Now, they won’t, but if they were to shock me despite everything I’ve been told and they decide to move someone like Reynolds, yes, I’d be mad.

I’d be mad because it sets the whole damn thing back. It would say to you that they don’t expect to win or be competitive by 2025. If they were to trade a guy like Oneil Cruz, I’ve got questions.

This stuff is really predictable though, honest. There’s a reason everyone and their mother can easily put together a list before the season of players who will be on the block and no, it’s not because we evil writers are driving a guy out of town. It’s because logic is available for anyone and everyone who chooses to use it.

As soon as this deadline passes, I’ll be able to tell you everyone left who will be on the block in 2023. So can like 200 other people. And if they sign another pitcher to a one year deal, guess who’s on the block next deadline. If they sign another DH on a one year deal, guess who’s on the block.

For instance, the Pirates could have skipped bringing in a Quintana all together and just kept Chad Kuhl. He’s had a great season in Colorado, that’d help right? Guess who’d be on the block. Why? Because it’s his last year of team control. Why not just extend him? Sure, you could, but he’ll be 30 years old. How many years do you think he’s got in that arm before he drops off? Was one decent season, and I mean decent he’s got a 4.11 ERA and a 1.402 WHIP, enough to decide he’s worth a 3 or 4 year extension? I ask that because that’s what he’s going to want, likely what he’s going to get somewhere. My guess is that 4.11 ERA looks terrible to you on your team, but like you lost something really great when he’s wearing purple.

For the rest of the time Kevin Newman is here he’s on the block. His isn’t about control as much as being squeezed out but even so it’s entirely and logically predictable.

You get a team that is in the race, and I mean legit in the race, ok, most of that stuff goes out the window. You’ll hold onto that guy who’s going to walk for nothing in an effort to win a few extra games or even just keep depth in place. Even then, I’ll be able to tell you which prospects might be available to help add to the MLB team via trading them.

So many have worked themselves into believing every single decision comes down to Nutting not wanting to spend, they’ve blinded themselves from the reality that at this stage, none of them cost a damn thing in terms of meaningful money. Daniel Vogelbach costs 800K this year. 1.2 next year should they choose to keep him. If they move him, it isn’t about money, it’s about selling a guy who has hit far better than his contract, and might return something that helps later, you know, when it friggin’ matters.

There’s reason to distrust Nutting obviously. He’s a cheap dude, and if you want to get angry Jose Quintana was arguably the best free agent they signed, cool, but his spending has nothing, and I mean nothing to do with any trade they make this year.

Eye on the prize people. The goal here is to build a winning team. This isn’t a winning team, so stop asking them to keep it together. To prevent forest fires you might have to have some controlled burns. It makes no sense, until you actually see why it’s done and how it works. Consider these relatively small moves you’ll see this year as a controlled burn. This one though creates room, provides more help later potentially and more than anything trims the fat.

I actually don’t expect them to be all that active, and the reason is more about the fact that they don’t have a whole lot of attractive, movable pieces than it is desire. I bet they’d trade up to 10 players if anyone wanted them, and therein lies the problem.

Trades aren’t always a bad thing. You really must find a way to understand that because you’re nowhere near seeing them stop. In fact, I’ll remind in 1987 the Pittsburgh Pirates traded catcher Tony Pena to the St Louis Cardinals in exchange for pitcher Mike Dunne, catcher Mike LaValliere and outfielder Andy Van Slyke. Pena was my favorite player, he was 29 so he wasn’t ancient, and I certainly didn’t understand it at the time. I was hot, a ten year old who just saw his favorite baseball player moved for people I didn’t even recognize. Clearly it worked out but I didn’t know why it happened. I had no idea that he was going to be lost in free agency if they didn’t move him. I didn’t really understand that his offensive stats had steadily declined over the years. All I knew is they traded a player I knew as the best player on my favorite team.

Folks, that’s not what this is. Not this year. Someday it will be again, but what you’ll see this year is nothing near that.

I’m not saying you have to cheer when they ship Quintana or whomever, but you also don’t have to act like they’re shipping out something that would have gotten them to the promised land. That just isn’t there, that’s not what any of these guys are.

They’re stop gaps, and just like Flex Seal, it’ll do the job, hell you can even patch a boat with it, but I wouldn’t try to see if it holds on a cross Atlantic trip.

Pottery Barn: The 2022 Draft, an Exercise in Patience and Trust

7/21/22 – By Corey R. Shrader @CoreyShrader on Twitter

“How poor are they that they have not patience!” – William Shakespeare (‘Othello’ (1602-4) act 2, sc. 3, l. [379]

I have spent some time trying to gather as much information as is available on the Pirates 2022 draftees. There is a significant amount of virtual ink spilled on the Bucs top pick, Termarr Johnson. That one is easy. To a lesser extent, information is readily available on several other early picks. And that is great for baseball fans!

We live in a time with an incredible amount of (mostly) freely available information on
everything, including sports. Even in this information age, it is virtually impossible to find the necessary information for the layperson to really get the necessary data to analyze MLB
draftees. Of the 20 players the Pirates selected in the 2022 draft, I’d say that at least 50% of them are virtual unknowns to anyone not plugged in to scouting, etc. and calling it 50% might even be generous. Overreaction is easy and it cuts both ways.

Now it comes time for me to fess up. I, myself have violated exactly what I profess to be be
in opposition to. My initial overreaction to this draft class was a mix of revulsion and confusion, ‘revfusion’, if you will. 

But I have taken a step back and realized that just because the team did not snag players that I personally wanted (pick 44 – we will get to you later), does not mean this draft is “bad.” Judging the MLB draft in real time is a fool’s errand. Folks, I am here to tell you The Main Ingredient was right. Everybody plays the fool, sometime.

The Picks

I took a little heat on Twitter from some of you for criticizing the first day’s picks. I’m still not over the moon but here is Day One:
4 – Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS (GA)
36 – Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell University
44 – Hunter Barco, LHP, University of Florida

I drew the internet ire of some with my concerns over Termarr Johnson. I want to say it clearly here; he is a very good prospect and I like him. However, given what was available, he was not my preference for this scenario. He boasts the most advanced hit tool among the prep prospects, elite bat speed, a very advanced understanding of the strike zone (he will whiff some, but is rarely fooled twice), and an ability to use positive launch angles to get to power in a game that is unexpected. His limitations however come from some belief that he may not have a clear home on the defensive spectrum. Listed as a shortstop, very few scouts that I have read or interacted with believe he can stick there. In fact, the consensus seems to be that his best case scenario is playing 2B at the major league level. I believe he could possibly have the athleticism to play the outfield. The concern is that he ends up being a super-utility player defensively. And in my opinion, this is the downside with the selection. There is an enormous amount of pressure on the power tool to emerge as 60, hit tool to develop (or maintain, depending on your take) a 70+ hit tool. Should that happen, I don’t much care where he plays, just hit big fella.

Thomas Harrington is a really fun selection, I think. An accomplished college arm with a great strikeout to walk ratio. Gets elite extension and has a low release that helps his fastball play up despite middling average FF velocity. Throws 3 secondaries, changeup, slider, curve. Changeup and slider are solid offerings. Curveball could use polish. This is a nice combination of performance and projection. If the organization can add velocity to the FF and develop the pitch usage/repertoire he has a shot to be very good.

Hunter Barco & pick 44. Barco is an interesting player. But this is the pick I did not like most. With two of my personal favorite remaining bats on the board in Jud Fabian, OF, University of Florida and Tyler Locklear, 1B, Virginia Commonwealth University, I saw the pick come in and my head dropped. This isn’t an indictment of Barco – he has a track record of being good at a high level – he basically shoved for his entire career against the SEC. Good strikeout to walk ratio, gets ground balls, deceptive delivery, interesting enough repertoire. He is a fine pick too and I am excited for his Pirates career.  But the two bats in particular that I mentioned were 1st round talents, in my opinion. 

Day Two:

83 – Jack Brannigan, RHP/3B, Notre Dame
110 – Michael Kennedy, LHP, Troy HS (NY)
140 – Tres Gonzalez, OF, Georgia Tech
170 –  Derek Diamond, RHP, Ole Miss
200 – J.P. Massey, RHP, Minnesota 
230 – Cy Nielson, LHP, BYU
260 – Mike Walsh, RHP, Yale
290 – Tanner Tredaway, OF, Oklahoma
Day Three – 
320 – Dominic Perachi, LHP, Salve Regina University
350 – K.C. Hunt, RHP, Mississippi State
380 – Miguel Fulencio, LHP, Cowley County CC (KS)
410 – Julian Bosnic, LHP, South Carolina
440 – Josiah Sightler, LHP, South Carolina
470 – Nick Cimillo, C, Rutgers
500 – Jaycob Deese, RHP, Houston
530 – Elijah Birdsong, RHP, Pacific
560 – Yoel Tejeda, RHP/1B, North Broward Prep HS (FL)
590 – Joshua Loeschorn, RHP, LIU

First and foremost; I cannot possibly talk about all of these players in depth enough to be
beneficial for you, the reader. I wanted to list them all, however, to recognize them and
congratulate them on getting to realize their dream of being drafted to be a Major League ballplayer & give them their flowers for this achievement. I hope Pirates fans will all get to
know their games and about them as people as they grow within the organization. 
This is where I am going to ask you to indulge me on the title of this piece for a moment; an exercise in patience and trust. 

As I alluded to in the introduction, most of these players are unknown to us folks that do not have access to data or are not actively scouting in person or via video. There are tidbits here and there on many of them, sure. Take Dominic Perachi for instance. He was the Division III Pitcher of the Year. He is an excellent case in point for patience and trust. The best pitcher across the entire country at an entire division of college baseball. This is very pliable clay to be molded by a professional team. And I think that is what this 2022 draft is for the Pirates. It is a lump of clay. 

I would bet dollars to donuts that many of these players were taken due to something specific that the organization sees or thinks that they can maximize. Take J.P. Massey, he added a curveball that flashed really nasty results just this year. Throw that lump of clay on the wheel and hey, it could start to look like a vase. Dominic Perachi – DIII PTOY, no offense to Salve Regina U – but maybe a professional baseball organization’s Research & Development team can get him to places Salve Regina simply could not? Nick Cimillo, he played terrific baseball for Rutgers to the tune of a Big 10 batting title. 

The biggest question going forward with this class; just how skilled are the hands working the clay & the running the pottery wheel? I have spoken with some people that are simply much sharper baseball minds than myself and they have many positive things to say with regards to Pittsburgh’s R&D departments, specifically on the pitching side. Eventually we need to see these results filter up, and I think we see some glimmers now in Roansy, Keller & Brubaker, but we need to see it from A- to the MLB level more regularly. 

This class is FAR different from the class of 2021. That class positively oozed ceiling and it was a lot of fun! 2022 looks a lot less “fun” at first glance. In fact, I would still give it an updated knee-jerk reaction of a C+. But it is very much a lump of clay. Will it stay that way, slightly misshapen and formless,  or will we have some ornate vases to show for it in a few years?

All we can really do in these moments as fans, is have patience and trust.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Maybe The Bucs Could Add?

7-21-22 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno – This is the trade piece I’ve been looking forward to writing since we started this, Joe! The time is here, the moment is right, the fruit is ripe, Big Ben has struck ten! It is time for Ben Cherington and his staff to start putting together trades that will add to the Pirates roster and start that push to compete. And while we may not see it at the deadline, we should see some come this off-season. But why wait? I think if we put our heads together, we can come up with some trades that make sense now. You down?

Joe Boyd – Ha! Of course I’m down.  There are several different directions you can take this.  You could take on a salary to get a better return, trade prospect strength in exchange for prospect weakness, you could do change of scenery guys, or you could look for a player with some control to anchor the roster.  Which way are you going to take it, Justin?

JV – I’ve been stewing with this for weeks and due to all the rumors attaching Reynolds to the Mariners, I’ve fallen in love with a young Mariner. So I’m going with a change of scenery type situation here. 

How many times can I look at Jared Kelenic ‘s potential and not want to add him? Not sure how many times I’ve read up on him, but  I’m there: I would love to see him at PNC Park. Despite his high ceiling he just hasn’t figured it out at the majors just yet. Slashing .173/.256/.338 with an OPS of .594 and striking out at a 30% clip. Not good, I get that. But he’s also 22 years old and I think he’s a change of scene guy. So here goes-

Seattle gets- 

SP Mich Keller -FA 2026 

I know what you’re thinking, “Mitch finally looks good and you want to deal him?” And you’re not wrong, Mitch does look like he’s starting to get it. But I’m not sure how much I buy this and how high his ceiling is now. If I can turn him into an everyday player with Kelenic’s upside, I’m doing it! 

2B Ji-hwan Bae-ETA:2022– FV 45($6M)

If you’ve read my Prospects Updates on this site you know I’m high on Bae, even confused as to why he’s not a 50 FV, and more confused why the Bucs don’t have him in the majors at this point. Seattle is in the Wildcard picture as of writing this and they need a second baseman. Bae is ready and his control of the zone should have him being a solid MLB player in the first season. 

Pirates get-

OF Jarred Kelenic-FA 2028

You’ll notice I am not using SV in this trade, currently Kelenic has a much higher WAR projection then Keller. But I have to think ZIPS will make an adjustment to these as Keller has been the more productive major leaguer, and really it isn’t close. But Kelenic stil as a ton of upside and control. Jarred will be 23 in a month, this flier is well worth taking on the former 60 FV prospect. 

SP Emmerson Hancock–ETA:2023– FV 45($M)

I’ve mentioned Hancock before in a Bryan Reynolds trade piece. As I mentioned there this is the guy I wanted in the 2020 draft. 

Seattle adding Keller to George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen and Matt Brash waiting in the wings gives them a solid mix to finish the year and a good staff moving forward. Go get me Jarred Kelenic Mr. Nutting!

JB – For me, I wanted to add to the pitching staff and I decided to look at a few different options on how to do that.  First, I went through the values for some arms that are already under contract: 

  • Jon Gray ($5.47MSV) – Just signed this year, so I think Texas would pass, but excellent option and really feels like an AJ Burnett type of acquisition.
  • German Marquez/Anthony Senzatela (~$45M SV) – I always like the idea of snapping up pitchers from Colorado and bringing them back to sea level (I’ve named 3 already!), but Senzatela just signed his deal and Marquez starts to get a bit too expensive after this season.  Let’s keep rolling. 
  • Merrill Kelly ($15.98M SV) – Kelly would be in the wheelhouse for an acquisition.  He wouldn’t take much (a package might look like Bae & Solometo?), but at 33 there is a risk of a serious dropoff here that I don’t think is worth the risk. 

But what about his teammate? Zac Gallen ($47.6M SV) – Now this is a guy that I’d really like to get.  It’s very difficult to hit that value.  He has 3.5 years of control and would fit really nicely into the rotation.  So let’s try to do it anyway.  

The deal:  JT Brubaker (See previous piece) & Nick Gonzales 

For

Zac Gallen & Kristian Robinson

Thanks to @eYARKulation, we did Brubaker’s value last week and coupling that with Gonzales’s value, we get $53M SV, so Arizona throws in Robinson to close the deal.  Would they do this deal without ensuring Nick is healthy?  No way, but it still deals from a position of strength (middle infield hitters) to get a player that would be out of reach under any other circumstances.  Gallen has already put up 1.2 WAR this season and ZiPS has him projected to collect 0.7 more wins and he’s not even arbitration eligible yet!  I’d like to add him to a rotation along with Bru, but this was the easiest way for the Pirates to get Gallen, so here we are.  

I also touched on doing prospect for prospect deals, so I wanted to try and get one of those out there, as well.  

Ji-hwan Bae ($6M SV) to Chicago White Sox for RP Jared Kelley ($3M) & SP Matthew Thompson ($1M)

I tried to get these two pitchers in the Adam Frazier deal and here I am trying to get them again!  As with the Gallen deal, we moved a player in a position of strength (infield bats) for some pitchers that may need a change of scenery.  The Pirates add two players that ETAs are 2024 and 2025 respectively and add necessary depth for the pitching staff.  

JV- For my second  add I’m stretching the limits. I’m going for a well known starter for prospects. The fun part here? We’ve spent the last two years of fans yelling at us to stop trading known MLB talent and now we get to have fans yell at us to stop trading away “the future”! We just can’t win, Joe!

The team- Cincinatti Reds

Pirates get-

SP  Luis Castillo FA-2025 ($35M-estimated)

Here’s the catch, if Cherington wants to make a move on Castillo he needs to overpay, same division and all. But he also needs to do it with extending him at whatever it takes as the plan. I know, “you’re crazy that’ll never happen”. And you’re probably right. But BC and his staff have done a tremendous job with team control and keeping payroll low. This IS why you do this. To sign a big name. Enough excuses Mr. Nutting, get it done. 

Reds get-

2B Nick Gonzales OR Liover Peguero ETA 2023 F V50($28M)

The hope here is to move Gonzales. But if the Reds demand the SS(Peguero), do it. This is why you build a healthy deep system. 

2B/SS/CF Ji-hwan Bae-ETA: 2022– FV 45($6M)

You’ve probably noticed that Bae is a popular name here. The Bucs can  deal him due to it being a position of depth. The Reds can deploy Bae in a lot of ways as he’s played all 3 spots pretty well. I have to think the GM’s look at Bae as a 50 FV, looking at his MiLB numbers I can’t see how they wouldn’t, he’s gotten better every step of the way. He’s developed power. And he doesn’t strike out. Even if he’s viewed as a 50 FV I would still be fine giving this package up, as long as they plan to extend Castillo.

RF Rodolfo Nolasco– ETA: 2024- FV 40+($4M)

Even if Bae is sold as a 50 FV the Bucs will have to come up with a 3rd piece but it won’t have to be as highly regarded. It wouldn’t surprise me if this needs to be a better piece with Bae viewed as a 45 but this does exceed the SV of 35 or million.

CONCLUSION – 

JV – Seattle may view Kelenic as an untouchable piece; as a guy who’s adjustments he’s made at AAA have him set and ready to go. While the market for Castillo should be scalding hot, The Mets and Yankees rotations have taken a pretty solid hit lately, so I can see either of them going all in on Castillo. But I think the larger point is that the time is here. BC should be looking at putting together some deals to help boost this team and get them ready to win. 

Making a big move or 2 will excite the fan base and set the bar higher going into the off-season. If BC makes a good trade or maybe a big signing at the Winter Meetings I think the pre-season ticket sales see a good bounce. Merchandise sales will spike and isn’t that what Robert Nutting owns the Bucs for? To sell tickets and merchandise?  

JB –  I’d say, at least for my trades, it’s the devil you know.. Or maybe it’s a bird in the hand?  Regardless, moving Bru for Gallen looks good on paper today, but there is obviously inherent risk.  I think that this was a fun exercise and one that I very much enjoyed, but I think it was just an exercise.  I think Cherington will be very risk averse until he has to move, and that could be as soon as next year! I actually think Jon Gray makes a ton of sense when we do this exercise in July 2023.  He’ll still have 2.5 years of control and just feels like a shrewd Bucco singing.  So we’ll look at that next year!  Justin, what’s next for this trade season? 


JV – Well, Joe we’ve hit on all the names we think we will hear in rumors. We’ve touched on the guys we think will be moved. We’ve even played with adding some names to the club as they enter the  window of contention. The only thing left  to do is re-rack it all. Next week let’s talk about some of the rumors out there and what it could mean for the Bucs!

Top 20 Prospect Update

7-20-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

Not gonna lie, I’m a tad distracted as I write this. (Temarr Johnson and all).

1-Oneil Cruz

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.174/.240/.261.501.087.225428%44%
MLB.204/.240/.398.638.194.274754.8%36.5%
Season.232/.336/.422.758.190.33810212.1%22.7%

2-Henry Davis –NO STATS, PLACED ON IL

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.133/.235/.200.435.067.214285.9%29.4%
AA.177/.320/.355.675.177.313939.3%18.7%
A+.341/.450/.5851.035.244.4621798%18%

3-Roansy Contreras -NO STATS THIS WEEK-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%k%
week61.503.440.834.5%31.8%
MLB503.784.884.311.3810.1%23%
AAA14.22.454.541.1616.7%33.3%

4-Liover Peguero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
MLB.300/.467/.400.867.100.39714820%13.3%
Week.217/.308/.348.656.130.301857.7%15.4%
AA.275/.315/.422.737.147.3241004.9%21.6%

5-Quinn Priester-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week5.10.003.440.7510%15%
AA21.12.112.603.741.137%24.4%
A+2.216.887.522.652.636.7%20%
A30.003.774.7200%10%

6-Nick Gonzales-UPDATE: 60 day IL-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
week
season.247/.366/..377.742.130.34111213.4%32.8%

7-Endy Rodriguez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.294/.400/.529.929.235.41415115%20%
season.276/.362/.474.836.199.37512610.3%23.1%

8-Matt Fraizer

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.348/.375/.609.984.261.4221644.2%12.5%
Season.231/.292/.374.666.143.297826.6%25.1%

9-Jared Jones

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week61.502.040.679.1%36.4%
season80.24.804.474.081.3810.3%29.3%

10-Bubba Chandler 

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week
A2.213.503.13
CPX15.10.002.373.130.8516.9%45.8%
BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.000/.600/.000.600.000.46517060%0%
SEASON.231/.444/.6541.098.423.49118525%16.7%

11-Ji-hwan Bae

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
week.143/.294/.143.437.000.2353617.6%35.3%
season.302/.370/.455.824.153.3661219.6%16.7%

12-Michael Burrows

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week411.251.982.000%14.3%
AAA167.312.604.071.501.4%21.1%
AA50.22.132.873.951.039.4%32.5%

13-Travis Swaggerty

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week(AAA).263/.263/.579.842.316.3501110%36.8%
MLB.111/.111/.111.222.000.099-420%44.4%
AAA.270/.338/.447.784.177.3461089.2%27.7%

14-Miguel Yajure

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week51.801.080.600%31.6%
AAA20.26.104.254.841.6510.3%20.6%
MLB15.211.325.896.932.1311.3%7.5%

15-Anthony Solometo-No stats this week-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPPBB%K%
Week2.115.431.342.570528.6%
Season15.14.112.633.841.307.4%25%

MY FIVE

16-Kyle Nicolas

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week3.22.455.091.6416.7%16.7%
season504.144.354.321.3210.3%29.4%

17-Brennan Malone-No stats this week-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
WEEK
A213.5017.977.802.507.7%23.1%
CPX33.002.703.651.677.7%30.8%

18-Dariel Lopez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.600/.625/.9331.558.333.6823216.3%12.5%
season.273/.313/.461.773.188.3441074.8%27.8%

19- Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.238/.333/.476.810.238.3641194.2%37.5%
season.224/.342/.352.694.128.3299710.4%35%

20-Connor Scott

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.211/.250/.263.513.053.235425%25%
season.250/.314/.364.678.114.305887.7%22%

A Few quick thoughts-

Change she is a commin-

Let’s talk about a few changes to look for starting next week.

First- Roansy Contreras has graduated and is no longer considered a prospect, so I will be removing him from the updates moving forward.

Second- I am going to take Brennan Malone out for now, he just cannot stay on the mound. I’m still hopeful on Malone, his stuff is simply electric but for now we can’t see that.

Third-As some of the picks sign we could see some movement, namely Temarr Johnson who should slide right behind Davis as the number 3 prospect in the system.

Good Things come to those that wait…..for adjustments

I won’t spend too much time on this, but I’ve notice a lot of the same people who screamed for Oneil Cruz to be on the 25 man roster since before the season began are now screaming he needs to be demoted. My dudes, please breathe. Many prospects struggle in the early going for different reasons. Let the kid make some adjustments.

Stick a fork in him

As many of us know Hudson Head was the key piece in the Joe Musgrove deal, and he came with a lot of deserved hype. But I just don’t get how he’s still in A+ ball. I’m even starting to wonder if his mental side of the game is being permanently damaged, help the kid out and send to a level he can get right, please!

Rollin,’ Rollin’, Rollin’!

Bad Oneil Cruz Takes & Good Draft Picks

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-s5hqb-1278dfc

Oneil Cruz is adjusting to major league pitching, but there are some folks out there ready for the Pittsburgh Pirates to send him back down to AAA. We’ll compare him to a current superstar who has great things to say about the Pirates rookie and explain why he should remain in the majors. We’re also talking about #4 Overall Draft Pick Termarr Johnson along with guys we liked later in the Pirates selections like Hunter Barco & Michael Kennedy.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Forecasting the Immediate Futures in the NL Central: AKA, Know Your Enemies

7/19/22 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter and Corey R. Shrader @CoreyShrader on Twitter

I asked on Twitter if any of you would have interest in seeing how the NL Central is going to take shape over the next several seasons. A whole bunch of you said yes, so here it is. This was a whole lot of work so my friend Corey Shrader was kind enough to step in and help me out with some research and writing.

This is a forecast, obviously this could be altered by injury, poor performances, spending, and the like, but as the Pirates actively work their way toward being competitive, to me the missing piece of the conversation is always what the division foes are doing.

That’s what we’re trying to provide today, a bit of a window into the immediate futures of our rivals.

Instead of telling you what years the Pirates will be at their peak, I’ll leave that to your judgement as you’ve seen me give you my estimates for years now and I’m not convinced they’re attempting to just open a window as much as create a factory. Succeed or fail, I believe that to be the goal.

Enjoy, and again, special thanks to Corey, really helped me flesh this out and put in some tough hours building out data and piling through scouting reports.

The Brewers

Gary – The Brewers exist in a smaller market than Pittsburgh but operate on the edge of their ability to spend. They’ve rebuilt and opened a window for themselves with incredible pitching and a penchant for hitting homeruns but their time as a group is coming to an end. At least for this stretch.

2022 Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers will battle the Cardinals all season for the division title, and their pitching gives them the edge, but slightly. Unfortunately, injury has again bitten Christian Yelich, and at this point it’s become chronic. Aging outfield options aside are propping the offense, but not the way they used to.

Key Players: Position Players

Christian Yelich – He’s obviously the most talented offensive player on the team, when healthy. Playing in his year 30 season and locked up through the 2029 season the Brewers are committed to having Yelich on the team, I don’t think his back feels the same. As I sit here, I can’t imagine him playing until he’s 37, and more, I can’t fathom him being productive for the vast majority of that contract. They probably expected the back end of this contract to be the cost of doing business, but this early back stuff could hang this payroll around their necks.

Willy Adames – Traded from the Rays, Willy is playing under Arb 1 this season meaning he has two years left before he costs them. I’m sure retaining him would be something they’d love to do, but it might not make sense if they can’t retain some other pieces around him.

Rowdy Tellez – Another Arb 1 warrior, Rowdy has found a home in Milwaukee. He’s good enough to want to keep, not good enough to command more than they can afford. Could easily see them trying to retain him.

Omar Narvaez – The Brewers starting catcher and currently injured player is in his walk year. He’s really come on since being acquired by the Brewers and he’ll enter a thin catching market as a free agent next season. Going to be tough to hold onto this one.

Key Players Pitchers

Corbin Burnes – Cy Young winner, total stud, what more do you need to know? Oh, yeah, he has two more years of arbitration, and he’ll price himself out of Milwaukee if I had my guess.

Devin Williams – If Josh Hader didn’t exist, Devin would be their closer. He has 3 more years of arbitration, and they’ll try like hell to keep him around. Kinda surprised they haven’t already done so.

Josh Hader – Last year of arbitration and arguably the most accomplished closer in the league. Zero chance they pony up, if they weren’t in the division race, I’d bet they’d trade him.

Brandon Woodruff – 2 more years of arbitration for Woodruff, and he along with Burnes ensure the Brewers can’t just let this whole thing die. As long as they have those two, this rotation is partially there.

Freddy Peralta – Freddy is locked up through 2024 for a reasonable contract, and they have two option years beyond that. He’s easily a rotation piece if they want him to be but could just as easily slide to the pen if needed. Not unlike Brent Suter.

Brent Suter – Speaking of Brent, he’s the ultimate swing man. Can give you leverage in the back end or start in a pinch. Mop up, sure thing coach. Swiss army knife and highly effective. His last year of arb is 2023, and I think he’ll get a lot of interest outside Milwaukee.

What Do They Have Coming?

The short answer, not much quickly. This is a very young system. In fact, they only have one player in Baseball America’s top 100 list and Aaron Ashby is already in Milwaukee’s rotation.

The outfield looks like it could replenish by 2024 with their top 4 prospects all being outfielders, specifically Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell.

Close to the majors you’re looking at Ethan Small a lefty who could easily arrive this season.

Aside from that, it’s just so hard to say. Dylan File is another pitcher who should be close, but for perspective, their number 29 and 28 prospects are both set with ETAs of 2028.

The Brewers system is currently ranked 25th out of 30 and since they’ll likely not be moving players being in a race, this ranking isn’t likely to change much. Well, maybe down since Ashby minimally will graduate this year.

Diagnosis & Forecast

The Brewers are going to spend what they can. I won’t sit here and assume a blow up is coming, but financial reality will still hurt this team.

1 more season of directly competing for the division. 2 or 3 more of being a tough out from the wild card race. After that, I think we’ll see a bit of a retool. There just isn’t much coming and again, I think that Yelich contract really hurts them. Even if I’d have cried like a baby if the Pirates did the same thing.

The Cardinals

Corey – With 10 NL Central titles and just one losing record since 2000, the Cardinals are one of the model franchises in all Major League Baseball. As of writing this the Cardinals once again find themselves sitting atop the division in a tie with Milwaukee. However, as the 2022 season marches along, similarly we find the Cards marching toward the end of an era for some franchise legends. This begs the question; what exactly does the future look like in the Gateway City?

2022 St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis is very much playing to win in 2022. The Cardinals find themselves in what should be a very tight race. With both Milwaukee and St. Louis currently projecting for 95 wins (fangraphs), it is reasonable to expect them to push some chips in at the trade deadline, but not an absolute necessity.

Key Players: Position Players

The team boasts a strong offensive group led by current NL MVP odds leader, Paul Goldschimidt. We are seeing near vintage Goldy in 2022. While he does not boast the same athleticism as his peak in Arizona, he is a force at the dish and can outright carry a lineup to the tune of the best wOBA & wRC+ in all of baseball to this point in time. This isn’t a one man show, though. As a unit the Cardinals sit 5th in team WAR, 7th in team wRC+, and 8th in team wOBA.

So, we know about Goldy, but who else do they have? Nolan Arenado is having his typical very strong season on the hot corner both with the bat and glove ranking 2nd in DRS, 3rd in OAA, 4th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+ among all third baseman. Second baseman Tommy Edman has been nearly as impressive in 2022, taking his game to the next level posting 3.2 WAR in 65 games behind an improved offensive profile and solid defensive play ranking 6th among second basemen in wOBA, 7th in wRC+, 1st in DRS, and 3rd in OAA.

In addition to Goldschimdt, Arenado, and Edman, I would be remiss not to mention the 2021 breakout Tyler O’Neill (Arb 1). Off to a disappointing start in 2022 he found himself on the IL with a shoulder injury that kept him out of action for just under a month. Coming into the year some expressed concerns that his breakout was not to be trusted given his plate discipline (or lack thereof boasting a 31.3% k%). Since his return he has been looking much closer to the 2021 version of himself posting a triple slash of .315/.354/.477 with a .360 wOBA and 135 wRC+ across 44 at bats. Just to note here that O’Neill did exit the game early today with an injury, the extent of which is unknown.

Rounding out the lineup we have Harrison Bader (Arb 2), a tremendous athlete with 95th percentile sprint speed at 29.2 ft/sec with strong defense ranking 11th in OAA among all outfielders. His offensive game leaves some to be desired, but the speed and hit tool are effective enough to make him a valuable piece.  Given that he is heading into his Arb 3 season for 2023, it would not surprise me to see him wearing another uniform after that. He does offer top tier athleticism & good defense, so I won’t rule out a deal to keep him around longer as they do not have a clear CF option to usurp him.

They also have a greatly diminished offensive version of Yadier Molina, but Yadi still puts forth strong defensive ratings and remaining one of the game’s premier framing catchers. On the flipside of Molina we see several up & coming Redbird bats we will discuss some more later; Dylan Carlson, Juan Yepez, Nolan Gorman, Brenden Donovan, & Ivan Herrera.

Key Players: Pitchers

If there is a current weakness on this club it is most certainly pitching.

Leading the charge for his 17th professional season is Adam Wainwright. Waino can be a workhorse and anchor a staff after all these years, a definite calming presence and mentor in the clubhouse. In 2021, Wainwright was one of only 4 starting pitchers to toss 200+ innings. Perhaps most impressive, as a 39-year-old it was near vintage Wainwright. The 2022 version is looking a little less strong running a 3.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 18.5/7.4 K%/BB%. It is important to note that his xERA is 4.16, so there could be a few bumps ahead for the St. Louis elder statesman, but in his career, Wainwright has consistently outpitched his xERA, so the fall should not be cataclysmic barring worst case scenario stuff.

The biggest question mark for the Cardinals pitching staff is what is the deal with Jack Flaherty? Over the 2018-2019 seasons Flaherty looked like he was on the fast track to being the next Cardinals ace. Since that time, results have been mixed. The evaluation is difficult for a few reasons. First being the COVID shortened 2020 is borderline impossible to evaluate for most players. If you want to take a pessimistic view, you could see the markers for some decline – giving up harder contact, BB rate ticked up, and the xStats and estimators really disliked his season. Second, he has been battling injuries on and off during the last two years. In 2021 he missed two months with an oblique injury, and in 2022 he was shut down with shoulder bursitis that kept him out of action until 6/15/22. The positive here is that he has not had any elbow issues. The shoulder issue is concerning, but Flaherty & the team are committed to the idea that it was a result of his mechanics being altered by his oblique injury. All in all, this is a tough case to decide on. You cannot assume health for pitchers, especially one that hasn’t been fully healthy in almost 2 seasons. Flaherty may just be the most important pitcher in the organization. The remainder of 2022 will be of great importance in determining that. Worth noting that Flaherty is currently in Arb 2.

Miles Mikolas is a bit of a mystery himself. After a 3 years stint in Japan, The Lizard King remerged in the majors in 2018 where he translated his overseas success immediately posting a 4.2 WAR season. In 2019 the league seemed to have got more information on Mikolas and he could not replicate his success of 2018. He was still very good though, finishing with a 2.4 WAR. Now the trouble begins. Mikolas missed all of 2020 with a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm. In 2021 he was not particularly effective, but he was still dealing with his forearm injury, including being shut down to receive a stem cell injection the same forearm that shelved him in 2020. Thus far in 2022 the injury seems to be behind him. In fact, he appears to be a bit closer to the 2018 version of the Lizard King than we’ve seen since. He is not the same pitcher as he was in 2018, but he appears to be back to being an above-average to good starting pitcher.  With only 603 major league innings & 445 innings in Japan, that is about 500 less innings than his counterpart Adam Wainwright had tossed through his age 33 season. Much like the case with Flaherty, it is difficult to fully bank on sustained health when injury history to the throwing arm/shoulder is present. Mikolas is perhaps the second most important starter going forward on the current staff, and I would suggest, that is sort of scary.

Rounding out the current rotation are Dakota Hudson & Andre Pallante. Dakota Hudson is not particularly interesting. He is having a good deal of success in 2022, but looking a little closer under the hood, not a lot to point towards a big breakout coming any time soon. He relies mostly on a sinker/slider approach. The sinker, his favorite offering, is not great yielding a .308 BA/.344 xBA and a .368 wOBA/.422 xwOBA. The slider appears to be more effective, posting .173 BA/.231 xBA with a .204 wOBA/.277 xwOBA. His other offerings are not used very heavily, but Hudson may benefit from an arsenal and/or approach tweak. Pallante has pitched a total of 42.2 innings and made just 3 starts so far in 2022. His last start on 6/15/22 was successful racking up 10 whiffs on 75 pitches and a 29% CSW all while limiting hard contact to the tune of an 84.8 average exit velocity across all offerings at Boston. As of writing, small sample size at work, but he is someone to monitor as he gets more major league exposure, but the Cardinals have been deploying him as more of a swingman right now.

Finally for the rotation, perhaps one of the most disappointing free agent pitcher signings of 2022, Stephen Matz finds himself on the IL nursing a sore throwing shoulder currently. Signed for 4 years/$44 million this offseason, Matz had an uneven career for the Mets prior to being dealt to Toronto. His 2021 season was strong, pitching to the tune of 3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 22.3/6.6 K%/BB%, and a 2.8 WAR while pitching in a solid hitter’s park. This season got Matz a pretty good FA deal, but the results in St. Louis have been middling. Peripheral numbers and estimators do still like him more than the back of the baseball card numbers, but, again, we have a throwing arm injury here. If he can get back to the mound regularly, he should be a solid middle/backend of the rotation arm.

Two notable names to revisit later: a pair of near MLB ready lefties, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Rival fans should expect to see a good deal more of this pair down the road.

Bullpens are sort of difficult to pin down beyond the current term given they tend to both turn over more regularly and performance can swing wildly month to month and season to season. Headlining the group is Ryan Helsley. Helsley may just be the best relief pitcher in the National League to this point of 2022, posting gaudy numbers, 0.36 ERA/1.25 xERA, 40.2 K%, .130 wOBA, .122 xBA against. It is reasonable to expect some regression, but it should still be videogame stuff.  Giovanny Gallegos has been overshadowed by the wild season of Helsley, but he has also been very good. These two are both under team control until 2025 and 2026 respectively, so they’re here for a long while. The Cards pen also features some players that have had some success in the past, but appear to be just guys: Genesis Cabrera, Nick Wittgren, lefty specialist T.J. McFarland. Three names to note: Jordan Hicks, Johan Oviedo, Zack Thompson. The oft injured flamethrower Hicks has bounced between opener and bullpen, he is also back on the IL. His future is undetermined to this point, but the bullpen would make most sense. I believe the Cards view Thompson as an starter still, they have used him in bulk relief and let him start one game so far. Oviedo appears to have some solid stuff posting some encouraging minor league strikeout numbers, but his control is poor. He is someone to monitor but he may never figure it out due to wild tendencies.

Changing of the Guard

At the conclusion of the 2022 season, we will almost certainly see the departure of 3 all-time great Cardinals. Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Albert Pujols are all set to ride off into the sunset ending an era of St. Louis Cardinals baseball. When these three walk away it will yield $30 million of salary relief for the team. The other impending free agents being Corey Dickerson ($5 million), T.J. McFarland ($2.5 million), and Nick Wittgren ($1.2 million). I could see all of them being left to the market. One exception being Dickerson if he were to come back for less money and pending other signings, he has however, been quite poor in 2022.

Now here is where we get weird. We need to talk about Nolan Arenado.

In 2019 the Colorado Rockies paid Arenado, rightfully, to the tune of 9yr/$275 million. The crucial point being that he was given two player option that would allow him to opt out after 2021 or after 2022. I personally believe that Arenado will opt in, but the crucial question is what if he doesn’t? Well, this would leave St. Louis with a significant hole in their lineup. Theoretically the Cardinals could fill this spot with a stop gap to cover them until their top prospect, Jordan Walker, gets the nod, but Arenado really holds all the cards here.

Historically, the Cardinals team payroll trends above league average, so I am sure they would love for Arenado to stay in the fold. But one must wonder, would they equally be open to him moving on? He is still among the best third basemen in baseball, but he is due to make $144 million more dollars through the remainder of his contract and their top prospect is an incredibly high ceiling third baseman. Would the team be bullish enough on Walker to hope for Arenado to let them off the hook for being responsible for paying him as he begins to decline?

My prediction would be that Arenado stays and the Cardinals are happy that he does. This is a team that highly values veteran presence. Look no further than the departing names. Of course, Pujols left, but he got a pretty ludicrous contract from the Angels and it was wise of the Cards to pass on that.

We are looking at a solid core group here led by strong vets like Goldschmidt & Arenado. Supplemented by up & coming slugger Tyler O’Neill, the dynamic breakout Tommy Edman, and a cadre of youth highlighted by Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, Brenden Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Matthew Liberatore.

System Outlook

Already Arrived

Dylan Carlson – Carlson arrive with much ballyhoo as the system’s number 1 prospect in 2021. Hailed as a power/speed combo with above average hit, Carlson has yet to see that all click, but he is a pretty solid regular. Has a good plate approach, but the speed & thump have not really been there yet. Cannot handle CF & looks to be a corner OF only.

Nolan Gorman – The organization’s number two prospect coming in to 2022. Gorman came here to do two things: slug & strikeout. And it looks like he is going to do just that carrying a respectable .186 ISO/.341 wOBA/4 homers/4 doubles/31.3% K-rate in just under 100 PAs. Under the hood his hit tool looks respectable. Should be a slugging fixture in St. Louis.

Juan Yepez – Called up in 2022, an all hit, no field player. The biggest challenge here is finding playing time. If he gets at bats, should hit for power and decent average. Looks like a DH only as of now.

Brenden Donovan – Off to a torrid start in the majors sporting a .382 wOBA/150 wRC+. This kind of production is most likely not to be the norm for Donovan, but he should be an on-base maven that hits for average, and scores runs. A nice player.

Ivan Herrera – One of the more underrated catching prospects. Recently got the call after a successful stay at AAA slashing .291/.388/.436 with a .371 wOBA/125 wRC+. He is young, just 22 years old, but might just be the heir apparent to Yadi.

Matthew Liberatore – Made his MLB debut in 2022 with modest success. Struggled some in the upper minors, his development was stunted some with the lost COVID year. Has very good curveball and a fastball that plays well enough. Will be a work in progress but should be a major league pitcher.

Zack Thompson – Similar background to Liberatore. Had some success in AAA in 2022, pitched with varying success in the majors. Solid in relief and poorly in one game started. I assume he will be tried as a starter until he proves he can’t.

Still On The Farm –

Jordan Walker – The organization’s top prospect. The hulking third baseman is truly among the elite prospects now after an aggressive assignment to AA that saw him start by proving it warranted right away. Walker’s calling card is his 80 grade raw power, rivaled in the prospect world only by Oneil Cruz. Very possible that the big man makes his debut in late 2023, but I’d bet more on 2024 for a full time gig.

Alec Burleson – The outfielder is having a tremendous year at AAA and might not be far off from a call in 2022 should they need an OF. Currently sitting at 14 homers, 10 doubles, 50 rbi while hitting .328/.367/563.

Masyn Winn – A favorite of mine, was a two-way player briefly, but has not pitched since 2021. A very gifted defensive shortstop that looks to be finding his offensive game some at AA. Establishing himself as one of the most underrated prospects at the position in all of baseball.

Tink Hence – Very far away but has big time K stuff. In his 15 innings thrown in 2022 he has posted a 43/9.1 K%/BB%. Not particularly close, but one to check in on now and again.

Michael McGreevy – Has struggled at AA this year, but is regarded as one of the top pitching prospects in the system. Should start to adjust as the year wears on.

Gordon Graceffo – Much lesser known, experienced an early breakout in A+, absolutely dominating. Has moved up to AA where he is having success, but not nearly the same as his A+ run.

Moises Gomez – Had to mention Gomez as he ranks among the top of most AA production categories. Currently has an otherworldly .383 ISO.

Diagnosis & Forecast

The Cardinals are the class of the NL Central. I fully expect them to remain in the role but will face challengers. This team is lacking in reliable pitching depth, and it is what is keeping them from being truly elite. They do have a higher floor than most teams. It is my full expectation that they are the favorites to win the division for several more years given the quality of the system & development combined with their willingness to spend on the product. They cannot be a lock to win unless they address pitching issues, but should be a safe bet to be a steady presence at the top.

The Reds

Gary – There are plenty of candidates to be the Pirates main rival, but to me it’ll always be the Reds. If you go all the way back to the Big Red Machine, or you think back to the Early 90’s playoff loss, maybe you just remember Chapman beaning Cutch, no matter what, the Reds are at least up there. The Reds will spend some money, but they don’t often do it wisely, and that leads to volatile swings in their roster but we’ll get into that more as we move on. The Reds in my mind tried to push the chips in a couple years early because they legitimately have some very good young core players. Waiting for them to develop a bit more first and they might just now be entering their window. Instead they tried early and are now in full dismantle territory.

2022 Cincinnati Reds

The Reds will likely finish this season competing for the NL Central basement with the Cubbies, and they’ll be moving on from some big names, well at least the names they aren’t paying a prohibitive amount to.

Key Players: Position Players

Joey Votto– He’s been a Reds Fixture since 2007, and with a contract that stretches to next season at 25 mil per, he’ll remain one. Joey isn’t what he used to be and I don’t say that to diminish what he’s done. A career .299 hitter, with 337 homeruns, the Reds may be stuck with an undesirable contract now, but they sure got their money’s worth. He’s led the league in OBP 7 times. Hell he has a career OPS of .929. Respect where due, he may be a liability now, but he’s been an incredible baseball player for the Reds, and indeed the National League.

Jonathan India – Drafted in the 5th round back in 2018, India burst on the scene last year and almost helped the Reds make the playoffs, but his arrival was a year too late as India represented the first of the train of talent the Reds had coming. India will likely be a fixture for years to come in Cincy.

Tyler Stephenson – Drafted in the first round back in 2015, Stephenson has become a fine two way catcher. The bat has really gotten him noticed, but don’t slouch on the defense either, he learned quite a bit playing under Tucker Barnhart and he’s poised to become a real star behind the plate for the Reds.

Mike Moustakas – The Moose has been terrorizing the NL Central since being moved to the Brewers back in 2018. When he became a free agent in 2020 the Reds who had chosen to pounce and really try to go for it one more time with Joey Votto were ready, and they paid him. He’s having an awful season and I’m sure the Reds would love to move him, but they owe him 18 million dollars in 2023, so they’d likely have to package him with prospects to dump the salary. A luxury they really don’t have.

Kyle Farmer – Kyle has been a relatively consistent performer at short stop for the Reds, but he’s entering Arb 2 next year, and they’ll have a tough decision to make. He’s not done enough to warrant a huge contract, but he’ll likely get 4+ in arbitration so moving him could also be on the table.

Key Players Pitchers

Luis Castillo – Luis is a good pitcher, easily just about anyone’s top 2. The Reds will almost definitely move him at this deadline. Entering Arb 3 next year and sure to clear 10 mil as an award, the Reds aren’t just going to let him walk for nothing. What the Reds get in return for Castillo could really tell the story of how quickly they bounce back.

Hunter Greene – The young flame thrower who famously lost a no hitter to the Pirates is one hell of a talent. He’s part of what the next Reds team will be built around. Now, he’s a rookie, but even so, 23 homeruns in 90 innings, even in that launch pad of a ball park has to scare the hell out of everyone on the club. Still, the talent is real, and I expect him to help anchor the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Nick Lodolo– Nick was actually picked by the Pirates with the 41st pick in 2016 but he chose to go to school and was picked again in 2019 by the Reds. He’s barely pitched this year, but he much like Greene will be expected to carry the load in the rotation. The long ball has touched him up too, giving up 5 in only 26 innings. Again, he’s a rookie, and the talent is really very much so apparent.

What Do They Have Coming?

It’s not a very exciting group honestly. Brandon Williamson is a LHP and could reach MLB as early as this season. The overall picture of the Reds top 30 is flooded with ETAs of 2023 and 2024. You all know how I feel about ETAs to begin with, but suffice to say, they aren’t close. In my mind the best prospect in their system is Elly De La Cruz, a 3B/SS with an ETA of 2024 currently in High A ball. He’s exciting, but so far away it’s hard to say. Another MLB pipeline top 100 player is Matt McLain a SS for their AA affiliate, he could be here as early as next year but I don’t see it as likely.

Diagnosis & Forecast

The Reds farm system really took a hit. As late as this February I saw them ranked as high as 7th and now they’re typically seen between 19 and 22. Much of that has to do with graduation, but performance also plays a role.

Now, the Reds are a bit of a wildcard. They could very well see a core of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, India, and Stephenson as enough to add to and go out this off season with an open wallet. If they do, the Reds could get themselves right back in the Wild Card conversation as early as 2023 or 2024. If they don’t, they might just be able to work their way into a much easier to manage window that starts in 2024.

The main thing with the Reds is they will spend, and that even when not well thought out can lead to unpredictable runs. I will say, they don’t have the prospect depth as currently constructed to do this quickly internally, nor do they have enough to trade for depth. That’s why moving players like Castillo will be so key. If they get a couple good prospects back from that it could really change the outlook for them.

They’d be in much better shape if they didn’t have to move players like Jessie Winker and Eugenio Suarez for a relatively small package. That’s a lot of talent out and not all that much in return.

I feel the Reds will be down for at least another year, but a starting rotation with Greene, Lodolo and potentially Williamson could be strong enough to build on and it’ll come right when Moose and Votto are moving on freeing up cash. I look for the Reds to spend big in the offseason following 2023.

The Cubs

Gary – the last time the Pirates got close the Cubs beat them to the punch and quite frankly that is the inspiration for wanting to do this deep dive.

2022 Chicago Cubs

Right in the mix for the worst team in the division, the Cubs are in the very beginning stages of a full rebuild. For as long as I can remember, the Cubs have been a team that could spend like the Dodgers but chose to play the small market game. Enter Theo Epstein and the complete remaking of the development system. It opened a window for the Cubs and paid off in a championship, but now they’re just moving off the last pieces of that machine.

Key Players: Position Players

Willson Contreras– He’ll be an unrestricted free agent after this season, and the Cubs already offered more than they ever will again to keep him around as someone to build on. He’s 30 years old so it’s not like a 10 year contract makes much sense either, but this was damn near written in stone when they moved on from Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber and Baez.

Ian Happ – Ian will also be a UFA after the season and could easily be a big chip for the Cubbies. His versatility is real and his productivity has been consistent.

Seiya Suzuki – The hottest name on the International FA board last year, Seiya started like a ball of fire, but the league pushed back and now he’s really struggling with strikeouts. Considering there was a decent stretch at the beginning of the season where he simply didn’t swing and miss, it’s obviously alarming. They have him through 2026, and next year he gets expensive.

Christopher Morel – I really like this kid. I think his approach is mature and he has a real chance to stick and become a fixture in Chi Town. The power is real, and if he reigns in his strikeouts he’ll be a force to be reckoned with.

Patrick Wisdom –This might be the hardest player to evaluate. In 822 plate appearances he has 49 homeruns which is really good, but he also has 311 strikeouts. Next year he’ll still not have reached arbitration 1. This player will be hard to count on, and hard to move, but I’m not sure they have anyone who’s really prepared to make him not matter. He’s also 30 years old, he’ll be 35 when he reaches free agency. Hard to figure this is a long term plan guy.

Key Players Pitchers

Marcus Stroman – Part of the Cubs Bi-polar offseason. They sent off many of their core guys, and spent money on others like Marcus. He’s locked up through 2024 with a 71 million dollar price tag and at least this year, he hasn’t been a 25 million dollar pitcher. He does have an opt out built in after 2023 but if he continues on this track he’d be brain dead to exercise it which I won’t rule out, because well, I think he just might be.

Kyle Hendricks – A shell of himself already, and now injured, the prospect of moving Hendricks is not realistic. He’s owed 30 million dollars for 2023 and 2024 total.

Drew Smyly– He’s on a one year deal which means he’s a rental. Only pitching in 11 games so far due to injury actually might help his market as he has more pitches in his arm than many competitors. Either way, he gone.

Wade Miley– Wade isn’t a bad pitcher and I’m sure the Cubs would love to move him, but he’s been injured most of the season. Again, either way, he’s not part of their future.

What Do They Have Coming? (Corey S. Assist)

Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA was acquired from the Mets in the summer of 2021 during the tear down in Wrigleyville. He opened 2022 by absolutely scorching A level posting 39 runs/7 homers/27 rbi/13 steals while slashing .354/.443/.557. Recently got the nod to A+ where that success has yet to translate, but he showed the dynamic 5-tool upside that led him to go 19 th overall in the 2020 draft.
Kevin Alcantara – Another newcomer at the 2021 deadline, Alcantara was shipped out of the Bronx to Chicago in the Rizzo trade. Simply put, the kid looks like a stud. He is young, but showing off his extremely generous tools in A ball this year. He will be one to watch closely and should rocket up prospect lists. If the development keeps tracking, this is what an “elite” prospect looks like.
Brennen Davis – The organization’s top prospect heading in to 2022. Scuffled early at AAA before succumbing to a back injury that required surgery leaving the young Cub without a timetable to return. In 2021 Davis rocked the upper minors and cemented himself as a top prospect league wide. He is a big, fast, strong kid with tools to spare. Assuming a return to health, the only thing keeping him from being a force will be K issues.
Owen Cassie – A big bodied outfielder that came over in the Darvish to San Diego trade. Big power tool, iffy hit tool and so far a good deal of swing & miss running a 28.5% k rate. His approach before 2022 was one with a high K and a solid BB rate, so, it appears his approach should trend toward that of a potential slugger or possibly on the lower end of the scale, more of a three outcome guy. He is young enough to believe in the tools though.
Alexander Canario – A common theme, but  Canario is another prospect that came over in trade. Part of the Kris Bryant to San Francisco deal in 2021. Another tantalizing tools prospect. Wholloped A+ early in 2022 and earned the call to AA. Displayed a very concerning amount of whiffing in A+, but the level was still not enough of a challenge. Currently struggling to adjust to AA, but showing off the power with a .240 ISO, 8 homers, and 9 doubles in 157 PAs. Boasts power/speed upside with iffy approach and hit tool.

Pitchers
DJ Herz – A funky delivery lefty. Should rack up strikeouts , but his ultimate ceiling as a pitcher will be capped by his ability to both control his arsenal and develop it around his ++ changeup. My gut says they try to keep him in the starter role until he proves he can’t do it. He is a personal favorite pitching prospect of mine, and I expect him to excel at the Major League level even if it is out of the bullpen.
Jordan Wicks – Drafted 21st overall out of Kansas State University in 2021, Wicks should be a fast mover. Another lefty that features a highly regarded changeup. Wicks is performing well at A+ this year and will very likely see time at AA by the end of the year. 

Far out:
Cristian Hernandez – The premier J2 signing of 2021. Hernandez just made his complex league debut. Big, fast, strong kid who performed up to expectations in the DSL in 2021. 

Reginald Preciado – Having a very poor run at A level so far, but Preciado is ultra-projectable. A physically imposing SS/3B that projects to have big power, showing a lot of strikeout issues in 2022.
James Triantos – A 2021 2nd round pick, Triantos is taking to A level well. Boasts a terrific hit tool with above-average to average tools across the board to complement.

Diagnosis & Forecast

Here’s the thing with the Cubs, they have the money to change their fortunes whenever they like. Now, even big spending outfits need to build something internal before adding typically, but they quite literally hold the cards.

With recent comments about spending from their owner, I’ll assume they have to at least look like things are trending in the right direction first so I’ll say 2 more years of being a bad club before they dive back in.

Now some services have the Cubs system as high as 6th and that figures to only strengthen as they move off more pieces. A path to building another really strong core is already there, if they’re patient enough to wait for it.

Conclusion

The Cardinals are going to likely continue to be a problem presuming the Pirates get their window opened up and the timing tells me the NL Central has a good chance of being 4 teams deep during the middle to late part of the decade.

I see the Brewers likely falling back after they ultimately can’t keep this staff together, but they’ve already surprised me more than once.

I simply don’t trust the Reds to handle this efficiently, so I’ll assume they again burn out their afterburners before they reached orbit.

The Cubs look to me at least like they have the highest ceiling system aside from Pittsburgh but they can always outspend everyone in the division including the Cards if they so choose.

Bottom line, The Pirates have as good a shot as any, but I think it’s foolish to think it’ll happen without at least scraping a top 15 payroll. Believing that will happen is really irrelevant, I think that’s what it would take.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

7-18-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, I’m back in Pittsburgh, just in time to have no Pirates baseball for a week. That’s good though, it gives us time to reflect and digest what we’ve seen thus far and fully appreciate the draft. I know David Bednar is an All-Star and I’m really happy for him but I barely care about the event, even if the Pirates were to have 5 players involved.

Lets dig in and see where the thoughts take us.

1. Termarr Johnson – Number 4 Overall Selection

Before I begin, Termarr already got love from our draft coverage team. First Craig with his top of the board review. And also Joe Boyd with his draft comp piece which is always so much fun.

I’d love for you to take a moment and at least read what they had to say about this young man before the pick was made. It’s important, because today, most will glow about him, including me, but these two guys took a look before the selection and had some really interesting observations.

These are my thoughts though, so I guess I should share them. I like Johnson, as far as high school bats go he’s easily the most evolved. The best way I can put it, the Pirates were picking 4th, so I expected them to get no worse than the 4th best available talent, and I think they got number 2 or 3. I’m a little concerned if he hangs at 2nd, because I don’t think he has the arm to transition to the outfield or the left side of the infield. There is risk in that, but much less now that there is a DH in the NL.

I’m not sure about his glove long term, nobody really is, but I see no reason why he won’t evolve into quite the hitter.

Immediately I saw a chorus of people questioning “what will the Pirates do with Nick Gonzales now?”

All I really got for you here is LOL.

That’s not how this works, at all. First, you could be looking at 3-4 years before this kid is even sniffing around the edges of MLB. Second, as I always say, if they hit, they’ll find a place for them to play. Short Stops, Centerfielders, Catchers and Pitchers, that’s the bulk of the draft board. Sure you see a 3B every now and again, but for the most part you see those 4 and there’s a reason. They all either have the specialization needed, or they’re the best athlete on whatever team they played on. It has so little to do with where they land in MLB it’s almost laughable.

My advice to everyone is don’t worry about things like that until they become something to worry about.

For instance, let’s say next year, Oneil Cruz, Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and Ji-hwan Bae are all ready and capable of playing middle infield. Then my friends, it’s a problem, and even then with the DH and the athletic ability of those 4 they can find 4 places for them to play. You know, not that any of them could beat out team favorite Josh VanMeter. (sorry couldn’t help it)

Point is, the problem I just illustrated is very likely to happen next year, so pardon me if I’m not hung up on who the fan base has already decided is cannon fodder because of a new draft selection.

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. You’re selecting three things, bats, arms, catchers. That’s it.

The Pirates added a potentially elite talent to their pool of bats, that’s what needs to be taken away. Now comes the fun part, developing him. Many of last year’s picks aren’t even in Low A yet so clearly the Pirates aren’t in a hurry to rush everyone along.

One final note, this selection was not the “last piece of the rebuild” as I’ve seen may suggest. It’s likely the last time they’ll choose this high for a minute, but it’s not the scale by which to weigh the success of this rebuild. By the time Termarr is here, if he’s here at all, he’ll add to an already built team. The bulk of what will compete initially is already at least in Altoona at this point.

Be excited they added talent. Don’t try to use him to push another top 100 prospect out the door before he’s had a shot of his own.

When Nick Gonzales was drafted, a college bat mind you, many were filling your head with crap like he’d be in the majors on opening day in 2022. He’s currently on the IL with AA Altoona and not hitting well when healthy on top. I don’t say this stuff to depress you, or temper your excitement, I tell you this stuff because it’s realistic. See, I’m not someone who has to back track and tell you Gonzales is underperforming or disappointing, because I never tried to pretend he’d be here already. To me, his progression is wholly expected. At some point this message simply has to start landing, the evidence on my side of this stuff is stacked.

Look around social media today, fans and “experts” alike will try to tell you Termarr will be here in 2 years. It’s simply unlikely.

2. Nothing Else Matters

It’s not just a killer Metallica jam, it’s also what the Pirates have done to the fan base. Nothing this team does while Yoshi Tsutsugo and Josh VanMeter remain on the club is going to be met with the appropriate response.

Michael Chavis has a great day at the plate and in the field, here’s a little praise for him and a barrage of questions about why Yoshi and Josh are on this team.

Kevin Newman comes back from the IL hitting over .300 and playing good D, swell, but why is VanMeter here?

Now folks, there is always going to be that guy. For the Yankees right now it’s Joey Gallo or Arron Hicks, both clearly better players than either of our hated number but every team, at every point in history is going to have that. These two are special if only because they still seem compelled to give them regular playing time.

Look, Yoshi just can’t hit, at least not for impact. VanMeter just simply doesn’t have enough ceiling to worry about even if he does discover something here. I get it, and lord knows I’ve certainly engaged in this topic, but more than anything, we’re allowing them to prevent us from seeing anything else clearly.

I’m not changing my tune. There was little to gain even if Yoshi came back raking. There is little to gain by unlocking VanMeter because at the end of the day, he has no business blocking anyone the Pirates might want to play at second base and he clearly can’t handle first base.

It would mean more to me, and quite frankly illustrate a better picture of this management team’s ability to make decisions if they just cut bait now instead of waiting to be shown nobody wants these guys.

At the end of the day, that’s really what this is all about isn’t it? We simply don’t want to believe that this general manager sees either of them as viable players. Playing them right now, since there are other options, can lead you nowhere else.

It’s more about having your confidence in his ability to get this done than it is having two players who aren’t good. We’ve had plenty of those. Now that there are better choices, nobody is interested in seeing them purposefully ignore that and still play them.

3. Trade Deadline Two Weeks Away

Things should start to heat up following the All Star Break. There are huge chips out there of course like Juan Soto or even Correa potentially, but folks, the Pirates aren’t really in this deadline, not for anything big.

They already didn’t want to move Reynolds or Bednar, and I’m more convinced from talking to folks that they are even more steadfast now.

The main players to look out for are Ben Gamel, Jose Quintana, Kevin Newman, Daniel Vogelbach, and I’ll leave it right there. Those are the most likely guys the Bucs would move, at least those they’d have a desire to shop. A team could come along and look for Stratton, Crowe, Underwood, relievers are always hot.

Vogelbach has really done well here, and a quality lefty bat could really draw some interest. He’s arguably the biggest return candidate the Pirates have. His performance coupled with his cheap option for 2023 make him someone who could cost a bit more.

Quintana is going to run into innings trouble this year. In other words, if the Pirates were to not move him, he’ll wind up being shut down anyway I’d wager. Point is, if you can get an offer, take it.

Kevin Newman has performed well since his IL stint and he’s got a history, some good, some bad. Teams might very well be interested, but I’m not sure of either what the Pirates would want, what their intensions are with him or for that matter what another team might deem appropriate cost. I think we’ll sit back and have to wait here.

Gamel should have a market, but lets be real clear. He’s not really a quality glove, at least not by the numbers, both OAA and DRS are underwhelming. The bat plays but not well enough to be a consistent DH. I love him and what he brings to THIS team, but what good would he do on a team like say the Dodgers? I don’t think he returns enough to bother, and I’d rather have him around the rest of this season.

All in all, it’s no that the Pirates have nobody another team would want, it’s more that the Pirates are at a stage where they too want those players.

Kevin Newman interests me the most here. They don’t have much time to make a trade happen for the deadline, and if he remains a Pirates player past August the Bucs will be forced to consider either tendering him a contract to send him to arbitration, or let him walk for nothing. Say what You will about Kevin, but he’s not a player you just let walk for free. You’d have to tender him even if you ultimately wanted to trade him so a decision will be forced, and a smart team gets something for a Newman type, a stupid team loses him for nothing.

I’m not going to waste my time pretending Yoshi, or VanMeter have a market, they just don’t ok. If Yoshi hit 10 homeruns from this Friday to the following Monday he’d retrieve nothing of note.

Want a surprise? Well if there is one it’ll be a bullpen arm. Underwood might be a smart move, the Pirates beat the crap out of his arm in 2021, and he’s been on and off the IL in 2022, but using him less has allowed him to ramp up to 97-98 and the stuff plays. With a ton of control, this is a guy who really could draw some interest, even if 90% of you think he’s stinky.

4. Bryse Wilson is Going to Get Another Shot

Likely this will come from opening a spot formerly held by Jose Quintana, but we could first see him step in for Roansy Contreras. Either way, he’s been good in his call ups and he looks to be in shape, which he sorely wasn’t this Spring.

Regardless, if he’s serviceable, the Pirates won’t feel the loss of Quintana nearly as much. If he isn’t, well, Michael Burrows or Cody Bolton will get a bite at the apple. It’s my belief that right now the Pirates would prefer Bolton complete an entire year of AAA. He simply hasn’t pitched much in a few seasons, and calling him up would be short lived at best before a shut down.

Modern baseball isn’t about having 5 starters and 8 relievers. It’s instead about having 8 starters and 16 relievers, preferably with options. A pitching staff stretches into AAA for every team in the league and the Pirates are in better shape here than they’ve been in years, but it’s still not ideal.

Bryse for his part has looked very good in his 3 most recent outings. Having someone like that sitting in AAA is essential to not feel the injury bug, and help stagger innings for others. Next year they’ll need to have even more, because no matter what, we’ll be looking at games that matter a heck of a lot more than they will this September for this club.

I say this for a couple reasons, the main one being, Quintana isn’t going to pitch straight through to October in the rotation anyhow, I just don’t see it. And so you aren’t shocked when this is their choice for his replacement. Next season he could be nothing more than a bullpen guy, this year he gets another shot at proving he belongs in a rotation.

5. The Arms Race is Real

The Pirates took Johnson at number 4 for one simple reason, he was the best player on their board. Now it’s on to the part where they go heavy on pitching, and it’s already started.

The 36th pick was RHP Thomas Harrington, the 44th pick was LHP Hunter Barco, with 83 they took Jack Brannigan a RHP and 3B, followed by number 110, Michael Kennedy. Now, I’ll stop there because the draft is still going on and well, I just have to stop somewhere.

Point is, the Pirates organizationally lack a couple big things. Power, although this has improved over the past three years, and left handed pitching/pitching in general. Well, the best way to attack both is to draft them like you don’t have any.

I hate to keep going back to how to handle MLB drafts as a fan and I apologize, please don’t take this as an assumption none of you get it, that’s not my intent. As more people get interested in what’s going on though, we must acknowledge that people who follow say the NFL more closely are seeing a flood of pitching like this and immediately asking themselves where they’ll all fit. All I can really do to help those types of fans is to simply say, Imagine every single one of these guys is a 7th round selection, and all of them will be considered projects that will have to go to the practice squad for at least 3 years before they manage to make their way to the special teams unit, if at all.

Sure, we can look at where these guys were rated on the national boards before the draft and feel the Pirates stole a guy here or reached there, but in reality, these are all projects. Some have a 60 grade slider, some have a developed changeup already in high school or early college. All of them have warts or at least questions about how they can develop.

Some like Kennedy are floor picks, meaning he maybe isn’t going to be someone who becomes an all star but he has a better shot of making the show because his baseline is higher than others. Others like Barco have a very high ceiling but have health questions and a floor that has him missing out on ever making it if everything goes wrong.

That’s reality. Just like last year, the Pirates made 20 picks, signed 19 of them and 11 of the overall choices were pitchers. I expect this year to be even more out of whack than that.

Two things this team can’t afford to expect to sign from outside the organization is pitching (at least not impact pitching) and power, and that’s what you’ll see them draft, time and again as we move forward. It doesn’t mean their drafts are unbalanced, it just reflects how silly it is to expect even 10% of them to reach the majors.

Fewer still will stick.

The MLB draft is the least exciting in all of sport if only for the simple fact most of what you see beyond the first round won’t be seen for years to come, if at all. That doesn’t mean these picks are all crap either. Mike Burrows for instance was an 11th round selection back in 2018 and he sits right now as the Pirates top pitching prospect who’s close enough to smell the league. JT Brubaker was a 6th round selection in 2015 and he’s just now in 2022 starting to look like a real starter. Mitch Keller, a 2nd round pick in 2014, now 8 years later looks like he has finally turned a corner and might become a reliable starter.

Oh yes, these picks matter. You just don’t know which ones yet, and it’ll be up to each young man to show he has the ability, fortitude and stamina to turn those sexy tools into a major league baseball player.

Some of the players selected today could just be finding their way in 2030 and that would be considered a success. That’s right, 2030. The MLB draft is not about today, it factors in no weaknesses of the MLB club, it doesn’t suppose what the team will look like when any one pick arrives. It’s all about amassing talent, identifying tools, and hoping against hope that a percentage of them will toil through the largest and hardest development system in the sporting world to ultimately get in some cases two innings in the Bigs where a chorus of Twitter geniuses will call them a bust. Some will work for 8 or 9 years to get to the show where they’ll take 20 at bats and have fans decide they know all they need to know.

Keep your head screwed on straight, and honestly, ignore the people that think they know the winners and losers of this draft even as it is going on. Truth is, if we’re talking about Hunter Barco at all in 5 years he’s likely done well.

I’ll leave it here. If you want to see typical overreaction and misguided “evaluation” do a quick twitter search of Pirates 7th rounder JP Massey. Truly hilarious and paints exactly the way most of these guys are seen. He has a terrible ERA, and that’s all it takes to have him a “terrible pick” but he was drafted for his size, 97+ velocity and developed slider that many draftnicks compare to Max Meyer. He may very well suck, but the ERA wasn’t even looked at my any credible scout, believe me.

Mid-Way Point Pirates FAQs

7-17-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I love doing these. First of all, answering these types of questions on social media, well, it’s just not possible. Sure on Facebook I can write as much as I like but it’s hard in the moment to write enough for an audience of one yet still adequately illustrate points.

So let’s do this.

Is 2023 the Time to Finally Spend Money?

Short answer, they certainly should spend some.

Longer answer, I’d imagine it won’t be much more than they’re currently sitting at. They’ll sign a pitcher or two. I’d advise they aim a bit higher than Quintana, but let’s be real honest, they were lucky to get what they have out of a 2 million dollar salary.

They need a catcher of course, but they spent 5 million on that this year, even if they sign the same guy it’s going to be around the same cost.

Just because some vets they signed didn’t work out, the money they put forward still counts. Yoshi for instance cost 4 million and he assuredly won’t be back.

The point of all that is to illustrate between arbitration awards, and the money they already showed a willingness to spend in 2022, the team will add but not see the payroll go up all that much if at all.

So yes, they will spend, but with where they are in on boarding youngsters, I think we’d be foolish to expect they’ll suddenly drop 30 mil in free agency. A starter, maybe two. A reliever, maybe two. A first baseman, catcher, maybe another vet outfielder, but I don’t see them at a point where trying to make a splash makes a whole lot of sense.

I’m aware it’ll be all about how cheap Bob is, and he surely is, but this is more about needing to make sure there is room to land for prospects. Another rather large wave is headed our way in 2023, and while the team needs to add, they need to add intelligently.

I always like to say, which one of their young cheap talents would you like replaced? That’s what every signed veteran will ultimately cause.

Frankly, if you ever expected this rebuild to culminate in a Padres like spending spree, you haven’t been listening to reasonable people.

After 2023 the base will have been given opportunity to solidify a bit and then it’s time to make a go of it, to whatever degree this team will do so anyway.

Now, if it were me, I’d add in 2023, and I’d lock up even some of my middle of the road talents like Brubaker and Keller. I’d get something serious done with Reynolds. But even I wouldn’t go insane. I want Burrows to have a spot, Gonzales and Peguero to not have to beat out a 10 year vet. I’d like Davis to be able to come up and learn. Filling the roster with pricey free agents might make the 2023 team better, but it’ll slow down the overall progression of building the homegrown core.

That’s just my opinion.

Why Do the Pirates Keep Playing Josh VanMeter?

Let’s start with honesty, I don’t know.

I’ve looked at his AAA numbers and seen the power potential that I’m quite sure the Pirates saw, but I’ll not act like I’m privy to statistics of his 700+ MLB at bats since I’m sure they have that as well.

He’s not particularly good on defense either. Sure he’s versatile, but so am I. I’ll happily tell people I can play hockey, baseball, golf, bowling, basketball, football, thing is I can’t play any of them with any real level of competence, and I’m afraid Mr. VanMeter has the same issue, to a much lesser degree.

More than anything, you’d think if looking from the outside the Pirates have no other options. Fact is, they have several. Several with upside.

OK, more honesty, I don’t know for one simple reason, there isn’t a good reason.

If you want to pile Yoshi Tsutsugo into this conversation, I completely understand, but even him I can reasonably say while I think he isn’t an answer, at least there isn’t a Ji-hwan Bae waiting to get a crack. Mason Martin certainly hasn’t put a shine on his apple.

Neither player really has a place here any longer, but I’d be shocked if it goes on beyond the trade deadline which in and of itself is asinine.

I like the plan, but I haven’t enjoyed much of these types of decisions Cherington and company have continued to make. I’ll never begrudge the team for trying to find talent, but that comes with a caveat, they must be more inclined to move on when it turns out to be a mistake, and we shouldn’t have to be treated to watching it for 6 months first.

What are the Biggest Positives to Take Away from 2023?

Before we get into this too much, it’s hard to say before the season is over, so bear with me, some of these are going to have ifs attached.

The Starting rotation is where I’ll start. Thompson, Keller, Brubaker and Contreras have all shown they have a good shot to return and start again in 2023 if need be. They have some backing coming and they’ll sign another next season. I expect this trend to continue and each and every one of them is under team control for some time. It’s a positive to me that we’ll head into Spring of 2023 without 5 big question marks. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t improve, or couldn’t sign more competition, but it does mean if they don’t, I feel the position will be well manned.

The Outfield mix entering 2022 was at least seen as a weak spot, now it’s an area where we probably feel they have enough to trade from. Reynolds, Suwinski, Smith-Njigba, Mitchell, Swaggerty, and if I had my druthers, Gamel is a really nice group to grow from. And I still don’t rule out one of Cruz, Peguero or Gonzales ending up out there. As I said earlier, I think they’ll have to go get a veteran, if only to ensure steadiness, but even if they don’t, I feel ok about the outfield.

Bryan Reynolds isn’t an every other year performer, at worst he’s a slow starter. That’s good news for many reasons, but none more so than knowing this management team needs proof more than they value faith. Proof is expensive, and a team like this can’t often afford waiting for the luxury. This one will find that fact to be true as well, let’s hope they don’t learn it from slow walking Reynolds.

Hayes, even hitting as underwhelmingly as he has in 2022 thus far is still a positive WAR player, and I mean to tell you he’ll wind up around 4.5-6 even if his batting stats don’t change course. His glove is that valuable. Now, that may never have you terribly excited, but he’s shown flashes of ability to improve at everything he struggles with, and the point is the contract he just signed will more than prove itself a solid signing. He may never hit like Arenado, likely won’t in fact, but he is a very valuable asset, one worthy of being locked up.

So Gary, What Do You Really Think of This Coaching Staff?

Well, I’m not impressed. This came from my friend Bobby, and he’s the reason I promised to write this piece. First, I really needed to think about it, and second, how could I fit this on Twitter?

Derek Shelton was a worthy candidate for a Manager spot in the league. He’d paid his dues, and coached under some of the best management teams in baseball. I say that because he wasn’t some reach of a hire. Now, many teams going through what they are, well they like to hire an older guy, maybe someone who deserved a shot and either out of loyalty or just lack of opportunity failed to ever get it. Sometimes that looks like our dear old Mr. Russell.

Derek was a hot name on the market.

Another question people ask is what kind of coach would accept a job knowing what he was walking into? To that all I can say is there are only 30 of these, and that matters.

The reason to ask that question tends to be a fishing exercise designed to see if you’ll say even Shelton knew he wasn’t good. LOL, yeah, it’s not that folks.

You get a guy like this to take on the challenge by promising you won’t allow the outcomes to reflect on them poorly. That can mean taking blame when it was clear the coach was doing as he was directed or when not providing enough tools. It could also simply mean we’re going to give you time after feeling we have enough to compete.

All that explains a little background on why he’s here, and why he’s absolutely not getting fired. I explain all that because regardless of how or what I feel, I’ll not join some passionate call for his head, it’s simply a fruitless effort. He’ll at least get next year, and then I truly do believe there will be enough talent for his bosses, and him for that matter to believe he should achieve something.

Now, as to how I feel.

I legitimately feel he is a bit in over his head. A bit too trusting of his pitching assistants. A bit too untrusting of his hitting assistants. Struggles to make in game or one off decisions. Believes in analytics to a degree that can render you blind to visual evidence. And more than anything that effects we the fans, a bit arrogant about the rightness of their plan.

I believe he’s a good man, and I know for a fact his players love playing for him. In fact they love him for how much he cares about them and protects their health. That includes resting Bryan Reynolds on occasion despite our fervent belief that Bryan would be mad. That includes pitch counts. That includes sticking to the pitching plan even if it looks really historically stupid to pull a rolling Thompson in the 5th.

This simply can’t be denied. The players love this stuff, and they all say it. The game has changed, and folks, more than anything the modern athlete has changed. They’ve evolved much more quickly than those of us who watch the sport and pine for the beauty of the game we watched as children.

Additionally, this is how this management team wants the manager to do his job.

They could be wrong, but I can also state with no hint of irony that they think he’s doing a great job.

So, no, I don’t care for what I’ve seen from this coaching staff, but I don’t feel like he’s held anything back of much note. Maybe a win here or there, but maybe they ran extra hard for him and won a game or two because of him too. Next year, the talent takes another step forward, and many of the benefits of doubt provided start to be met with expectation. Assurances aside, it’s not like Cherington is going to fire himself if signs of life aren’t apparent when they should be.

Here’s hoping they don’t think it’s a light switch they can just flip.

None of this means he can’t screw up royally. He did so on a couple occasions this year. One was allowing David Bednar to throw 50 pitches in an outing. David wants the ball, there’s no denying that, and it showed some much needed evidence that the team actively is trying to win, but it was short sighted, outside of the plan, and potentially has set the player back, this has yet to be seen play out entirely. Another was the treatment of Cam Vieaux. He was simply treated in a way that no pitcher should be. That can’t have been ok to the pitching coach, the GM, the coaches that worked with Cam every step of his journey, hell it couldn’t have been a nice thing or a waiver claim to see.

Those types of things, those can really derail Shelton, and where learning on the job really smacks you in the face. Mistakes are one thing, now see them repeated and you have a real problem. Eyes open, cause I’m positive these happenings were discussed.

The 2022 MLB Draft: Craig’s List

Maybe it’s because we have moved past Ben Cherington’s initial selections. Or, it could be due to the fact that the the Pirates don’t have the number one overall pick this year. Perhaps it’s the result of already getting glimpses at so many young players this year Or, possibly some fans have checked out slightly; in conjunction with fans that really don’t pay attention to the MLB Draft, no matter the year.

Whatever the reason(s), there has definitely been less chatter surrounding the Pirates upcoming #4 Overall Selection in the 2022 MLB Draft; scheduled to take place July 17th-19th in Los Angeles, as a part of the All-Star Game festivities.

Of course, those fans that have invested time and energy into the process, are vocal-as always-about the player(s) they believe the Pirates should must pick; and, are even more so concerning the ones that they shouldn’t would be making the biggest mistake ever by selecting.

I’m not in either of those camps by any stretch of the imagination; however, like anyone, I do have my favorites. Yet, in the end there are at least 10 guys that I would be more than content with the Pirates taking with their First Round Pick; as they begin to spend their allotted $13,773,900.

The Potential Very Young Bucs

1) Druw Jones-OF (Wesleyan HS)

As close to a consensus #1 Overall Player that you are going to get this year, son of perennial Gold Glover and Hall Of Fame Candidate-41.1% of the vote on this past ballot-Andruw Jones, Druw was named Gatorade’s Georgia HS Player of the year; on his way to a State Title.

Judged by most to be the best centerfielder, if not the best overall defender (Arm-65 and Field-70 grade) in this class, the younger Jones is still growing into his 6’4” frame; which could ultimately lead to increased power (60 grade), to go along with his speed (70 grade) and plus hit tool (55 grade).

Looking at rankings and draft slots it seems extremely unlikely that Jones would fall beyond Arizona at #2, so it’s hard to get excited at all as a Pirates Fan.

2) Jackson Holliday-SS (Stillwater HS)

Son of former Major Leaguer, 7-Time All-Star, World Series Champion and Current Oklahoma State Baseball Assistant Coach Matt Holliday, Jackson is currently committed to being a Cowboy; meaning he would join his Dad and Uncle Josh-the team’s head coach-by staying in Stillwater. Clearly this is not likely for Baseball America’s High School Player of The Year-who batted .685 and set a new national record with 89 hits this past year; however as of right now, he is not ruling it out.

Originally thought of as a future 3rd or 2nd baseman by most scouts, Holliday has displayed an innate ability that has some believing he could stick at shortstop.

If Baltimore decides to go the under slot route with a college bat-or favor Termarr Johnson-it is possible that Holliday goes down to #3; still-like Jones-I don’t see him dropping to #4.

3) Termarr Johnson-IF (Mays HS)

Johnson is a straight beast at the plate; wowing onlookers with with tape measure taters, and may be the best pure hitter in this year’s class. During his final season in a Raiders uniform he collected 23 hits in 59 at bats; with 15 of them going for extra bases.

Unfortunately his defense is not as polished; often causing many to project him as a second baseman rather than staying at shortstop. Nevertheless, this hasn’t been enough to stop the rumors from swirling surrounding him potentially landing in Baltimore at #1 Overall.

4) Elijah Green-OF (IMG Academy)

Son of Former Steelers Tight End Eric Green and the most likely #TankFor candidate in some Pirates Fans eyes during last season. A physical specimen at 6’3” and 225 pounds, Green is unbelievably fast (70 grade) for size; making him a threat on the base paths, as well as allowing him to make the outfield seem smaller.

Power (60 grade) over hit (50 grade) at the moment, Green put some naysayers at ease by providing more consistent bat to ball skills this past season; cutting down on strikeouts (26.9%) compared to last season (43.6%).

For what’s it’s worth I have seen Green going anywhere from #2 to #6; except for #4 that is.

The College Bats

1) Cam Collier-3B (Chipola College)

Despite being only 17 years-old, Collier is in fact a college bat; and, a JUCO Bandit to be more specific. By his GED after his Junior Year of High School and enrolling at Chipola, he was able to reclassify for the 2022 Draft instead of waiting until next year to come out.

In speaking with Joe Doyle from Prospects Live, I found out that when everything is said and done, Collier could end up being the best pure hitter in this class; although we wouldn’t likely see it on display until 2025 or 2026 at PNC Park, if he is selected by Pittsburgh.

2) Brooks Lee-SS (Cal Poly)

If any player fits what I believe to be the Ben Cherington mold, its Brooks Lee. He has an advanced college bat-.357/.462/.664 with 15 homers in 286 at bats; plus, he performed well in the Cape with the wood bats-.405/.432/.667 with 6 homers in 84 at bats.

3) Jacob Berry-1B/OF (LSU)

Hey the Pirates need a real 1st Baseman, N’at! And, that’s exactly what Berry could be. Seen by Joe Doyle as potentially the fastest riser/helium prospect to move through the Minors, the soon to be former Tiger could be spotted in the Majors as early as late 2023; which is a lot more optimistic than my amateur estimation of the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025.

Projected to be a .290 hitter that could run into 20+ homers, he could honestly be the safest pick in the draft. The prototypical high floor/low ceiling candidate.

4) Jace Jung-2B/3B (Texas Tech)

Versatility…I bet this guy could play some outfield. But seriously, Jung is absolutely a guy I could see Cherington signing at under slot at #4, if he wants to make a bigger splash at #36 and #44. Younger Brother of Texas Ranger’s #3 Prospect Third Baseman John Jung, Jace appeared in every single game at Texas Tech; walking 59 times in 61 games this season. However, walks isn’t what would have him moving up the draft board. A .335 AVG, an 1.093 OPS, 14 homers and 14 doubles does that.

Outside Options

1) Kevin Parada-C (Georgia Tech)

But Craig the Pirates just drafted Henry Davis last year!!!

Believe me, I am well aware. I am also aware that no prospect is a guarantee. And no, this has nothing to do with Davis’ current injury situation. Plus whenever I am questioned about this possibility I always bring up the San Francisco Giants drafting Patrick Bailey two years after selecting Joey Bart with the #2 Overall Pick.

A bat first catcher, Parada slashed .361/.453/.709 with 26 homers during his sophomore season; which automatically adds another power bat to the system. Moreover, who needs a defensive catcher anyway, with robo-umps coming to MLB eventually?

2) Zach Neto-SS (Campbell University)

Bubba Chandler 2.0? Well, not exactly. Yeah he did throw 93 mph out of the bullpen, but honestly that only proves that he can stick at short or slide over to third.

A menace on the base paths, Neto stole 19 bases this past season; and, often turned singles into doubles and doubles into triples to the tune of 25 total. Add in 15 homers with a .407 AVG, 39 walks to 19 strikeouts, and you truthfully have guy that will literally create runs.

Did I also mention that he batted .304 with 3 homers in the Cape?

On a side note, part of me just wants the Pirates to draft Neto because of Campbell University’s Mascot; The Fighting Camels. How awesome is that?

3) Gavin Cross-OF (Virginia Tech)

35 total extra base hits! Not only did he crack 17 homers, but he also chipped in 14 doubles and 8 triples for the Hokies this season; all while lowing his strikeout rate-20.5% to 14.6%-and increasing walks 7.3% to 10.7%.

A centerfielder by trade, Cross is almost destined to find his way into one one of the corner spot.

Bonus Round

Sometimes it pays to be one of the 10 lowest revenue or amongst the 10 smallest market teams. For the Pittsburgh Pirates I guess it pays to be both. This year 15 teams were in the mix for Comp Round A (After The First Round) and Comp Round B (After The Second Round) Picks; with the Pirates coming in at the Pick #36.

Now obviously, exactly what the Pirates do with this pick depends on who falls to them at #4; although in my estimation it will be an arm, as there aren’t really any reasonable choices at pitcher until you get to like 10th or 11th. Because of that reason, here are a couple guys I would target:

1) Jackson Ferris-LHP (IMG Academy)

Who doesn’t like lefty pitchers?

IMG Academy may sound familiar to Pirates Fans; and it’s not because of Elijah Green. Current Pittsburgh Prospect Brennan Malone is an alumni of this Bradenton, Florida Baseball Factory.

At 6’4” and 190 lbs this lanky lefty pumps his fastball (60 grade) consistently at 94 to 96 mph; pairing it will a power curve (55 grade)and a pretty solid change (55 Grade) During this past season he boasted a 1.03 ERA and 103 strikeouts across 54.1 innings.

2) Blade Tidwell-RHP (Tennessee)

Tidwell’s draft stock took a slight hit after he missed the first six weeks of the season with shoulder soreness, and not officially joining the starting rotation until a month later. With a 3.00 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 39 innings, Blade saved some of the best for last; pitching 7.2 innings and striking out 7 in a Regional Matchup with Alabama State.

This big righty has 4 solid pitches in his toolbox; featuring his low-80’s changeup (55 grade) against a fastball (60 grade) that touches 99 mph, a low-80s slider (60 grade) and a mid-70s curve (50 grade).

3) Justin Campbell-RHP (Oklahoma State)

Also 6’7”, and a two way player? Well, not anymore. After hitting .269 during his 2021 season with the Cowboys Campbell hung up his batting gloves to focus on his work on the mound; even though he did throw a no-hitter in 2021, while still serving as the team’s DH at times.

Extremely athletic with deceptive mechanics, Campbell pairs a super spin fastball (50 grade) with an upper-70s changeup (55 grade) and a mid-70s curve (55 grade). Both his fastball and changeup have lots of movement, which constantly keep hitters on their toes; as evidenced by his 141 strikeouts in 101.1 innings.

Sidelined in his high school career following shoulder surgery, Campbell passed on his 18th Round selection by the Astros in 2019 to honor his commitment to Oklahoma State.

For My Money

If I had to place a bet on any player being selected by the Pirates at #4 it would be Brooks Lee; assuming that he is still on the board, as the Orioles could easy select him to go under slot with the #1 Overall Pick. Next on my short list is Cam Collier. Finally, in the show position would be Berry.

Let me know what you think of this year’s draft class, who your favorite is, and ultimately who you believe the Pirates are going to call on with the #4 Overall Pick.

Blogger’s Note: For the full interview with @JoeDoyleMiLB from @ProspectsLive:

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Odds & Ends

7-14-22 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno- We’re getting close to Deadline and so far we’ve done Reynolds, Bednar, Gamel and Quintana. Not much meat left on the bone, but no worries! Joe and I have a few names left to throw at the wall. In this installment Joe and I have four guys we think could be on the move and while none are big ticket expenses, they all could bring something of value. 

-Chris Stratton. This has not been Stratton’s best season but a metric driven team is going to want those spin rates. 

-Daniel Vogelbach. The bat has played and a fringe competitor could like the bargain in adding Big Dan!

-Kevin Newman. We know he sucks, but he has some versatility with the glove, some speed on the bags, and teams might like the control attached to him. Let’s hope he hits a little while playing second base leading up to the deadline. 

Dillon Peters-LHR always have a market, and Peters is controlled for 4+ more years. That will attract many teams (that would include the Buccos keeping him) but do the Bucs view him as one of  the year after year reliable BP arms? Or will they consider him fungible? 

These are the names, let’s get to the value!

Joe Boyd – By now, you know how these things works, so I’m going to spare you the tables and we’ll just go rapid fire:

Stratton – 1.5 Years of Control (YoC) & $3.07M Surplus Value (SV)

Vogelbach – 1.5 YoC & $11.20M SV

Newman – 2.5 YoC & $9.93M SV

Peters – 4.5 YoC & $7.23M SV 

Rather than try to come up with four teams/trades, I think I’ll just go with one team and see what types of prospects we’re looking at in return.  

So with Stratton ($3.07M SV), I absolutely love the guy, as you know.  His valuation fits nicely in the 40+ pitcher realm.  I’ll go back to Cole Sands, again with Minnesota.  Dude has the traits to be Stratton, so perhaps the Twins will take the nearterm value in exchange for future Stratton? 

Vogelbach ($11.20M SV) could add a solid bat to a contender and he’s also under team control next year, as well.  I think this value is a bit inflated for a 1B/DH, so I wouldn’t expect something that high.  My thought would be more in the 45 Pitcher/Position Player range which is more like $4-6M.  How would you feel about Cole Wilcox from Tampa?  Former 3rd round selection that Longenhagen says, “His fastball, slider and present command would be enough to project Wilcox in a late-inning bullpen role, but a better change or split (the development of which was slowed by his freshman role) would enable him to be a mid-rotation piece.”  Like Quintana, Vogelbach was a low cost addition, just like Quintana, that could provide a nice depth piece for future Bucco teams.

Newman ($9.93M) probably won’t command this high of a return, either.  But he does provide nice depth for a contender.  There should be no reason to hang on to the guy from Cherington’s perspective, right?  I think a contender could have him for very little.  I’m thinking a 40+ position player does the trick.  So who fits that bill? Perhaps Boston would offer Alex Binelas who happens to be on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Newman?  Back to Longenhagen, “Binelas’ calling card is plus-plus raw power and the ability to get to it in games. It’s a big, brutish swing that is designed for just one thing: doing major damage. He’s capable of no-doubters from pole-to-pole, but it comes with plenty of swing-and-miss and an approach that while far from a disaster, is still on the aggressive side.”

Lastly, we added Peters ($7.23M SV) due to the fact that he’s on his way back from injury and we both think now’s a good time to sell high.  I’m actually pretty comfortable placing him in the same bucket as Vogelbach, so I’ll say that a similar deal would get Cherington to a ‘yes’ on a deal for Peters. 

JV- I’m taking a different approach and will use different teams, but like Joe I’ll keep it simple, as there’s a lot to get through in this one. 

Stratton to the Rays-($3M) The Rays need BP help and they love spin rates so this seems a natural spot for him to land. Joe used Wilcox(4M) for Vogelbach and while that’s an overpay for Stratton I’ll steal it.  I think the Rays will like the spin rates enough to pull the trigger. Wilcox rule is still to be determined but ya gotta love the floor of a late inning reliever. 

Vogelbach to the Mets-($11M) JD Davis and DOm Smith just haven’t got it done and the Mets are smack dab in the hunt and the owner is hungry like the wolf(I’m sorry). 1B Mark Vientos FV 45($6M). This is a tough one for Mets fans to read but the once top prospect has lost some luster and the math here works. Mark’s power is real; he carries an OPS of .833 at AAA thanks to hitting 15HR and 9 2B. So what’s the issue, a K rate of 31% is the issue. His hit tool comes in at an CV/FV of 30/35 but if the power is intriguing to say the least.  It’s possible that BC can get another 35+ or 40 snuck into this deal? Possible but let’s not get selfish.

Newman to the Mariners($10M)- The Mariners finally add a Bucco, sorry Mariners fan, it isn’t Bryan Reynolds. Mariners have tuned it on lately and are now in the WC picture. 2B is a need and they don’t have to break the bank by adding Newman. 

RF Lazaro Montes–ETA 2027-FV: 40+ ($4M)- Lazaro has a lot of power potential, FV 70 for raw power but is a long way off. His hit tool needs a lot of work but the pay-off could well be worth it.  

SIRP Travis Kuhn–ETA 2022- FV: 40 ($1M)- Travis is a 2 offerings pitcher and is an interesting BP arm that is close the MLB. The FB touches 98 and sits 93-96, add in a solid slider and you have the makes of a solid BP addition. 

Peters to the Dodgers-($7M) The Dodgers BP has been riddled with injuries and they will  be looking long and hard at the BP market. Enter a LH Peters with control. 

SP Edgardo Henriquez–ETA: 2024- FV 40($4M) I’ve mentioned him before and would love to add him here. This would be a big return for Peters. And I’m not just talking about his 6’4” 200 LB frame for the 29 year old Henriquez, a frame that can add build, built to be a starter. The promising 19 has a FB that can touch 100 MPH and sits 94-97. Add in a slider(60 FV), a CB(50 FV) and a change that needs work and you have a hell of a prospect. 

JV- Before we move on to next week Joe, we’ve had a request from @eYARKulation   …

I have not seen JT mentioned in any rumors or connected to any teams but we’re always up to the challenge. 

First Joe we need to start with control and if it would make sense to move JT?  With 3+ years of control left, making sense of moving him is not easy, but it’s also not as hard to envision as, say moving Bryan Reynolds. If Cherington and his staff think this is Brubaker at his very best and that is not something he will repeat, cashing in could be something that is on the table.

JB- Brubaker is projected as, on average, a 1.0 WAR player over the next 3.5 seasons.  That’s not frontline starter stuff, but he clearly has value on this team.  That puts his value at $25.14M SV which I personally think puts him in no-man’s land.  A $25M prospect would be a 50FV Pitcher ($21M SV) or a 50FV Position Player ($28M) and those players fall in the top 100, so I honestly don’t see a team moving a top 100 guy for Brubaker.  So now you’re looking at a package of several 45 FV prospects and my guess is there is just too many good rentals out there that you keep those guys.  Thoughts, Justin? 

JV- I tend to agree. JT is a guy that I think can anchor the back end of the rotation and sometimes  it’s just so hard to line up a return that makes sense. But what the hell, that’s what we’re here for so one of us should at least take a shot! Here goes. 

JT Brubaker to the Orioles-($25) The Orioles are playing solid baseball  but are they really ready to add? The fans are amped and it’s been a long while, making a trade for JT would be a long view trade. Let’s have fun.

RF Heston Kjerstad- ETA: 2024- FV 45($6M) It’s tough to let go of a former 1st round pick but Heston has been slowed by injuries and the O’s gotta give something up if they were to make a move. Giving up Heston’s power is tough but doable.

SS Leandro Arias-ETA: 2027-FV 40+(4M) Kid needs to eat a sandwich, 6’1” 170 LB. But  he already grades out as a 45 FV with the glove. A lot of upside here. 

SIRP Mike Baumann-ETA: 2022-FV 40($1M) Mike has 4 offerings, but his best stuff is his slider(70CV) and FB(55/60 FV). Needs to generate more swings and misses but looks to be a nice add to the bullpen.

I’m not sure if this really pries 4+ years of Brubaker off the Bucs hands but I feel this is likely the best type of package the Pirates would fetch for JT. That’s it for this edition, I hope you join us next week for the last trade piece before the Trade Deadline. The following week Joe and I will rerack and talk about some of the specific rumors we’ve heard before the Deadline. But next week? Next we turn the tables, next week Joe and I take a look at some trade ideas to ADD to the team!