2 Guys Talkin’ Trades A Keller of a deal?

5-24-25 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on X

Justin Verno- A trade rumor that involves a Pirate…in May? Corey, this is like Christmas in…well, May. I guess.

Corey Shrader- You know, writing these pieces is usually a fun exercise in looking across the league and trying to connect dots. But the feeling of “needing to” do this so early on is kind of deflating, JV.

JV- It’s like eating a banana before it’s ripe–a tad bitter and not nearly as sweet. And hey, @mlbscoops isn’t exactly a bastion of integrity when it comes to these kinds of things, but if we’re connecting dots and all of that, this rumor makes sense and it makes sense the Baltimore Orioles would want to move fast. 

Grayson Rodriguez is still out, though it sounds like he will start throwing again soon. Kyle Bradish is likely out for the season, or at least the bulk of the year. The O’s rotation hasn’t been great and if they don’t improve that rotation and fast, the season will be gone with…wait for it…the birds. 

CS- The O’s are in such dire straits that it is almost difficult to believe. Far be it from a Pirates fan to dunk on how a team is run, but, yikes. A champagne lineup with a Bud Light pitching group. Even with the return of GrayRod, it may be too little, too late in Charm City. 

Despite the match looking too good to be true, I believe there could be other teams that would want to jump into the fray here as well.

JV- Before we get into what Mitch Keller’s value could be and if it would make any sense to move the controlled starter, I want to take a moment to look at what Mitch Keller brings to any team that will be looking at him. 

If there’s one thing I’d say about Keller it’s this: he gives the team a chance to win, and he does this more than his numbers suggest. 

In 2025, Keller has thrown 58 innings over ten starts. In eight of those outings he’s given up three or less earned runs. In one of those two starts he gave up four runs over five innings. Now about that last outing?  He gave up seven over 3.2 innings.  Take out that outing and the ERA drops to 2.99 (from 3.88) and yeah, I get he still started that game. My point being in the eight other starts he was solid and that’s kinda become his thing. 

Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at his 31 starts in  2024. 

Starts-31  Innings-178  Runs- 84 

23 of those runs came over three games(12.1 innings). Just taking out those twelve innings his ERA goes from 4.25 to 3.33. 

Corey, every team that is considering adding Keller has had their analytics team devour his numbers and they are all aware of the overall consistency that Keller adds to a rotation.  If the Bucs are willing to listen on Keller, they will likely have a good deal of interest from teams that need pitching.

CS- The decision from Pittsburgh to move Keller would make some sense in some ways for sure. I am a little hesitant to be excited about the idea. Given his control & what I believe to be a relatively high “floor,” it is not a move to make for the thrill of it or without the proper type of return. Keller has morphed into what I believe to be an underappreciated piece for this ballclub.

Since entering the rotation in a full-time capacity (2022-2025) Keller has posted the 14th most IP (583.1) & made the 13th most starts (102) of any starter in baseball. Across those 583.1 frames he has turned in the 29th highest fWAR (8.7), currently tied with the likes of Hunter Greene, Zach Eflin, & Ranger Suarez. Furthermore in those innings he has a 4.11 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.04 SIERA, & 562 strikeouts. All of this to say; the free agent market cost for a rotation piece with comparable ability/output would be, I believe, prohibitive for a team that operates the way the Pirates do. 

Keller is inked through 2028 & firmly in his “prime.” He might not be an ace – but he sure looks the part of an effective starting pitcher. Take a look around the league at the starting 5 (or 6) of most clubs. Those do not grow on trees. Should this front office (or the next one) explore dealing Mitch Keller, they need to be wary of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

JV- Now let’s get to Keller’s Surplus Value. Keller’s contract is up in 2029. The remaining balance on Keller’s contract, which expires after the 2028 season, is $63.5 Million. 

YearZiPS Projections
20251.8(ROS)
20262
20271.7
20281,5
Total WAR7
9×763
Payroll 63.2SV -0.2

 

These are strange numbers considering Keller’s WAR the last two seasons.  A WAR of 3.3 in 2023 and 2.2 in 2024 and that he is on pace for a 3.0 WAR this year. 

CS- There does seem to be a fair amount of regression built into the projections for Keller here. Some regression is reasonable to expect, but what we are seeing on ZiPS feels like a bit much to me.

JV- We agree that Keller should have a higher projection.  So how high do we go here? Simple answer is we don’t have to get carried away. I think a modest bump will do. 

YearZiPS Projections
20252(ROS)
20263
20273
20282
Total WAR7
9×1090
Payroll 63.2SV -26.8

I think $22-25M fits the bill here? 

CS- That is a range that I feel comfortable working in, JV. Let’s get to it.

JV- This piece is a little different form the usual ones we write up. First off it’s that banana that isn’t ripe yet. Normally we don’t start these for another month; we wait for the banana to turn that perfect shade of yellow. Secondly, it’s in response to a specific rumor that’s out there. 

The rumor is that the Baltimore Orioles are interested in Mitch Keller. With that in mind, using the O’s in this piece has to happen. I’ll step forward and bite the bullet on that package.

On the surface, The Bucs and O’s seem to be a match made in heaven. Peanut butter and chocolate. The Bucs need bats and the O’s need pitching. Perfect set up? Right. 

A year ago and this makes almost too much sense. So how about now? Don’t hate me for this, but I’m not so sure it is. 

At this time last year, the O’s had a few bats that I don’t think will be available at this point. Like 25 year old OF Colton Crowser. Or 1B Colby Mayo, the heir to 1B once Ryan Montecaslte is either traded or it’s simply time to make the switch. 

The obvious bat here is one Heston Kjerstad. And I do think this could be the piece that gets the trade done. But moving a starter as steady as Keller for a bat that has slashed  .231/.303/.382 with a wRC+ of 96 in 92 games in the majors is a gamble. And if we are all of us being honest, we seem to have enough bats that just haven’t hit to their pedigree. Is adding one more really the move we need? 

My vote? Three team deal!

O’s get-

Mitch Keller-SP-(SV-$25M) 

O’s add the ‘much more reliable than you think’ Keller.  

Blue Jays get-

Termmar Johnson-2B- ETA:2027- FV 50(SV-$21M)

Normally we go with Fangraphs FV. But TJ is having a strong season in AA. Slashin .263/.364/.423 with a wRC+ of 129. He’s taking his walks. His K rate is 17.1%. A very good showing for the 20 year old that should have him in AAA. 

Jud Fabian-(From the O’s)ETA:2027 -FV 40+(SV-$4M)

Besides sharing a name, well a nickname with me,  Jud is an interesting bat. One that  I can see the Bucs wanting to keep in this deal. But with that power swing comes some question marks. He has a propensity to swing and miss. Still a solid piece in this deal. 

Liver Pegeuro-SS/2B-ETA: debuted(SV-$10-15M est)

Peggy hasn’t been able to earn a second look with the major league club. However his power is looking pretty decent down in AAA and his OBP is a solid .333. Why have I included him in this package? 

Pirates get-

Bo Bichette-SS-(SV-$22M)

OK, yes. I get that this is flawed. It’s ‘not happening’. It’s ‘unrealistic’. And so on. 

To start with, we aren’t even sure if the Jays will sell or buy. Secondly, they could be trying to extend Bichette as you read this though I have to think that ship has sailed. Lastly, even if they do sell, Bichette is a free agent at the end of the season.  I realize all of this. 

Fact-this is the type of player the GM Ben Cherington needs to add. This is the spark that the fan base needs. The owner can then ignite a fire in the fan base by immediately announcing an extension for Bichette. 

I know I make that sound easy. But this is the type of deal GMBC NEEDS if he wants to keep his job. This is the kind of deal that the owner needs to get the fans butts back in the bleachers.

Vance Honeycutt-OF- ETA:2027- FV 45(SV-$6M)

I loved this kid coming out of North Carolina. There are chase tendencies here but the power is legit. If Toronto insisted on Honeycutt over Fabian I think that’d be a wash, though the kid from UNC has the higher upside. 

Pick 31(Comp pick A) from Baltimore

To even out the Keller deal a comp pick or a “lotto ticket” would be needed to round out the trade. Being that GMBC has drafted pitchers well this seems a perfect way to wrap that deal up as high school arms are nice compensation pick targets. 

CS- CS- For my proposal Pittsburgh will be reaching out to the Houston Astros. Houston is in something of a transition phase. Their Championship core is nearly all gone. A rapidly aging Jose Altuve and the oft-banged up slugger & superstar, Yordan Alvarez, is nearly all that remains. Despite this turnover of talent, the Astros find themselves still among the best clubs in the AL West. 

As a side note – this probably seems unheard of for Pirates fans. Imagine having an organization run so well that you could; lose a true megastar in Kyle Tucker, let long-time star Alex Bregman walk in free agency, & have your surrounding core mostly churned off. And STILL be a great ball club. Hard to believe, but it can happen, folks.

Anyway, here is what I’d be looking for in a Keller to Houston move:

Astros get: Mitch Keller, SP ($25 SV)

Pirates get: Jacob Melton, CF, 50 FV ($28 SV)

Earlier I mentioned that moving Keller would require, in my mind, a return that is specific to an immediate need. I believe that Jacob Melton meets that requirement. He is plug & play for this club. He is a terrific athlete and capable of playing center field or right field. In short – he is big, strong, fast, & essentially MLB ready.

The main downsides with Melton are that he has been injury prone. Missing time twice in 2025 with minor, nagging injuries. His time on the field, limited to only 11 games, has been strong. Boasting some fun small sample batted ball & discipline data:

EV: 95.4

90th: 107.6

MAX: 110

HardHit%: 53.3%

wOBA: .395

xDamage: .474

z-Con%: 92%

Con%: 80%

SwStr: 8.3%

Again, this is some fun with a small sample size. But the numbers are not that inconsistent with his 2024 performance in AAA. Imagining an outfield with Melton/Cruz/Reynolds is pretty fun too! 

Houston is slightly deficient in MLB level starting pitching. They’ve found some success with Ryan Gusto as a backend option, but Mitch Keller would provide them with a much, much steadier mid-rotation proven arm. Plugging Keller in between aces like Hunter Brown & Framber Valdez adds a level of stability that would lessen the burden on the fringe arms they’re using. The Houston rotation of Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Framber Valdez, Mitch Keller, & Ronel Blanco is pretty darn solid.

Putting a bow on it

JV- Two very different approaches here for sure. Clearly I got a little stupid with mine. That was not a  mistake. Moving a controlled pitcher like Keller? As consistent as Keller? You need a certain return. If GMBC(or whoever is pulling the strings for the trade deadline) is moving Mitch Keller it can’t be for pocket change.

Does moving Keller make sense? It sure can. If the line up isn’t better the next day, it makes no sense. But, if they can leverage a controlled arm for a productive bat then they just aren’t in the position to say no.

In fact, Corey, we can make the argument that this IS the model the organization has been trying to achieve or at least SHOULD be trying to achieve. Getting to a point where there’s a Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft and a Hunter Barco waiting for that phone call. 

The same one that Michael Burrows just got. That he needs to pack his bags and join the boys in the ‘Burgh.  Making Mitch Keller a moveable asset. Making Andrew Heaney a movable asset. Using those assets to fill immediate needs and get this ship sailing on the high seas.

CS- It feels like we have been angling for this front office to trade from its pitching depth for nearly 2 seasons at this point. Good teams require pitching depth. Looking around the league you see it year in, year out. It is my belief that this Pirates club falls short of being a good team. What they do have is a very high end pitching development system & a well laid base of rising pitching talent.

Whether or not they trade Mitch Keller or one of Harrington, Ashcraft, Burrows, or Barco the goal should be to bring back assets that fill otherwise vacant spots in the big club. I understand the hesitancy to do so. Having depth to draw from when you need it (and every team needs it at some point of the season) is crucial. But to get over the hump from even nearly-good to good/contending requires a more complete team than the one they currently have. It will be quite interesting to see how filling these gaps is approached. If spending free agency dollar capital is not within the realm of possibility, you most likely need to spend prospect and/or player capital to achieve those ends.

JV- There’s depth and there’s deeeeeepth. The Pittsburgh Pirates have done one thing right under this regime. Identify and develop arms. I agree depth is an absolute must for any team, specifically pitching. We’ve seen the need as recently as this week. Jared Jones needed surgery. Carmen Mlodzinsky struggles in his renewed role? Call up Michael Burrows.  The team is still waiting on Johan Oviedo.

When the depth becomes deeeeeepth it should point to one thing, making a move to add something to fill the voids. Now it’s time for this front office and this owner to do a thing.

Get some damn offense, please.

Starter Spotlight: Peralta La Vista

5-23-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After finally breaking the 5 run mark, the Pirates will look to continue pushing the offense forward today but they’ll face a much tougher challenge today with Freddy Peralta on the bump, entering the day with a 2.59 ERA through his first 10 starts on the season.

The Bucs faced Peralta most recently on September 25th where he held Pittsburgh to 2 runs off 2 hits and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts over 5.1 innings of work.

Peralta focuses on a 3-pitch mix with a mid-90s 4-seam up in the zone, a high-80s changeup down and away from lefties and a low-80s curve that drops down under the zone – though, he also will infrequently mix in a low-80s slider with DEVASTATING results.

While Peralta has been nearly unbeatable at home this year – a 0.75 ERA and 25:4 K:BB ratio over 24 innings – he’s been much more human outside of American Family Field with a 3.98 ERA over 31.2 innings with a 32:16 K/BB mark when his team bats first, but that’s where the optimism ends.

Both lefties and righties are universally struggling to hit Peralta’s stuff and he is both efficient and effective early on in games with a 2.00 ERA the first two times through the lineup.

Righties will want to key in on the hanging curve. If he’s not getting the break he needs on the ball – as has happened often this year with righties batting .364 and slugging .818 against the offering – they could have a big opportunity to do some damage.

Lefties will need to be wary of the changeup breaking down and away (posting a .198 wOBA against the pitch) and focus on the high fastball, which Freddy tosses to lefties at a nearly 60% clip.

With Paul Skenes on the mound, you have to hope the offense can get something figured out as they have provided just 4 total runs of support over his last 4 games and 25 innings pitched.

Starter Spotlight: See You Soon, Civale

5-22-25 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Mike Burrows will make his 2025 debut with the Pirates after a strong past few outings down at Indianapolis, certainly earning a spot in this rotation.

Opposing him will see Aaron Civale, who returns to the mound today after spending much of the first two months of the year sideline with a strained left hamstring suffered during his first start this season.

The Pirates faced Civale thrice last season – once while he was with the Tampa Bay Rays (story here) and twice more after he was traded to the rival Brewers (here and here) and the wily righty had the upper hand each time as he combined for 17.1 innings pitched, 2 earned runs allowed off 12 hits and 4 walks with 14 strikeouts.

While Civale was roughed up in his only game thus far this season – allowing five runs off three home runs against the New York Yankees on March 30 but a combination of his injury, Yankees hitting and the newness of Torpedo Bats at the time likely played varying degrees of impact on his ineffectiveness.

He pitched in two rehab games at AAA and didn’t allow a run over 9 total innings with 3 hits, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts – much more an indication of the type of pitcher who we’ve struggled to figure out in the past.

Civale is going to work mostly with a high-80s cutter and low-90s sinker while adding in a high-70s curve, low-90s 4-seam with lesser-used sweeper/splitter in the low-to-mid 80s range.

He’ll work cutter/curve/sinker mix to lefties, running in against opponents while pivoting to sinker, cutter and sweeper running down and away from righties.

He has the tendency to hang the fastballs as all three home runs allowed in the Yankees game were courtesy of his cutter or sinker, so Bucs bats will want to try to stay on one of those two offerings if possible – specifically Bryan Reynolds (.875 OPS with 2 home runs through 16 at-bats against Civale) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (.500 BA and 1.250 OPS through 8 ABs) will be the ones to watch tonight.

Fun fact: Burrows and Civale both hail from Connecticut, growing up just an hour away from each other so this may be the Nutmeg State face-off for fans from New England. Hopefully, the younger Connecticuter can best the elder.

The Current State of Pirates Pitching

5-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

We are 50 games into the season and now seems as good a time as any to review the pitching – the good, the bad and everything in between. I’m sure I will dive into the offense – or lack thereof – at a later date but the pitching is something where there are some clear high points, some clear low points and some places where maybe there is a bit of gray that we need to sort through.

The pitching collectively has a 3.97 ERA, which ranks 17th in MLB and is heavily weighted with a strong starting pitching group which holds a combined 3.68 ERA, which ranks 11th best, and have done so through 274 innings – the 5th most in MLB.

Much of the issues – as I will discuss – have been relegated to outlier problems that have either been resolved or need to shortly, but there is definitely a lot more to like than not so let’s dive in:

The Good

It’s easiest to start here and, as bad as some stuff has been, there have been some pretty clear highlights.

Paul Skenes

Skenes may not be striking out batters at the 33.1% clip he maintained last season but he’s still easily the best pitcher in the Pirates rotation. Through a team-high 62.2 innings pitched this season, he has a 2.44 ERA and 25.5% K rate with a 6.6% walk rate. His xERA (2.50) is actually slightly lower than last year (2.53) in part due to a lower batting average against (.190 from .197 last season) and WHIP (0.94 from 0.95 in 2024).

Skenes is still crazy dominant and just pitched his first career complete game on Sunday. It was only 8 innings and resulted in a loss but still demonstrated the ability Skenes has shown to adapt as he looks to continue recording outs but finding ways to do so more efficiently as part of his goal to eclipse 200 innings pitched this season.

Mitch Keller

While Keller is not nearly as dominant as Skenes, he is certainly putting the team in position to win nearly every time he’s out there. He got absolutely shellacked against the Yankees on Opening Day (which was also, unfortunately, Mitch’s 29th birthday) but since then has pitched 48.1 innings over 8 games to the tune of a 3.17 ERA.

Sure, he’s 0-5 in that span but that is mostly outside of his control as he has been successfully dispatching opponents each and every time he takes the ball as he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 5 of those starts, recording 40 strikeouts to 12 walks.

He’s the veteran of the staff and has proven himself more than capable day-in and day-out, and he is part of the building blocks for the foundation this team is creating for if and when they become a successful baseball operation once again.

Dennis Santana

The bullpen blowups over the past year were headlined by Colin Holderman and David Bednar but one consistent piece through it all was Santana, who came over from the Yankees as a waiver claim and posted a 2.44 ERA through 44.1 innings of work in 2024 – and even that is exacerbated by a June 15th game where he allowed 6 runs in a single inning of work at Colorado.

This season, he has exclusively been utilized as a high-leverage, late-inning reliever who is 5-for-5 in save opportunities and has a team-best 1.77 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through 20.1 innings of work and gets a crazy amount of chase on his breaking ball.

Santana’s slider averages around 86-87 MPH and it has an opponents’ batting average of just .138 with a 40.3% whiff rate. Opposing batters are chasing that pitch far more than his other offerings but his Chase rate of 40.2% is bested by only Graham Ashcraft (44.5%), Jeremiah Estrada (41.2%) and Gabe Spier (40.7%).

Hitters just can’t lay off his stuff and he is making it work for him. While he hasn’t been specifically positioned as the closer for this team, he is certainly making an argument that he should be the guy for the job.

The Bad

Our offensive woes have been downright dreadful providing a small margin of error for pitching across the board. We have suffered a handful of bullpen blowups earlier this season but there is a clear 1-1 when we’re drafting the bad rotation piece as it stands right now.

Carmen Mlodzinski

I hate this. I hate writing it. I hate thinking it. I truly believe that Mlodzinski has a great future in MLB ahead of him – I just don’t think it in any way, shape or form should be as part of the Pirates rotation.

Over the last two seasons working as a reliever – and, at times, an opener, Mlodzinski posted a 2.91 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate and .215 batting average against over a combined 86.2 innings pitched. Since transitioning to the rotation this year, he has a 5.61 ERA with a 15.6% K rate and .311 opponents’ batting average rate through 39.2 innings of work.

He has managed to pitch into the 6th inning exactly once thus far this season and finished 5 frames only 3 times through his 9 games. Whether that has been by intent or not, he is CLEARLY not successful in a starting role as his ERA first time through a lineup (1.35/20 innings) is significantly lower than successive turns as he has a 10.13 ERA in 16 innings 2nd time around and 9.82 ERA in 3.2 innings when facing hitters a third time.

He was just optioned in favor of Mike Burrows, who will at least temporarily replace him but moving to Indy indicates an intention of continuing to work him as a starter, and keeping him in the rotation is doing him no favors while putting stress on a bullpen where there are already numerous holes. This team needs to pull the ripcord on this starting experiment ASAP or else they should GTFO.

Colin Holderman

Holderman is broken. There’s no two ways about it. Dating back to July 28th, Holderman had pitched 28.2 innings, given up 28 runs (26 earned) with 21 strikeouts and 18 walks.

He was so dang dominant for long stretches over the past few years since being acquired from the Mets for Rowdy Tellez in 2022.

From his first appearance after joining the Bucs on August 2, 2022 to July 24, 2024, Holderman pitched 104.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA and solid 24.4% strikeout rate.

Unfortunately, he seriously struggled in save situations as he notched just 2 saves over 13 opportunities and has completely cratered this year even in low leverage situations as he has allowed runs in 9 of his 14 appearances in 2025.

Maybe a second IL stint helps him figure things out again, specifically with his previously dominant slider – against which opponents have hit .417 this season after only batting .163 against the offering last season. It was a big weapon for him but he’s just not effective right now and that pitch is a HUGE reason why.

Joey Wentz

It’s largely flown under the radar with the rash of other issues involving many of the other 25 members of the Pirates active roster but Joey Wentz, who has pitched the most innings of relief for the Bucs this season, is not good.

Yes, he started strong and has managed to allow just one earned run with 11 strikeouts through his first 11.2 innings/8 games but he also allowed 6 hits and 5 walks in that time and that has caught up on him since then.

In his last 9 games, he has a 9.31 ERA, 16 hits, 6 walks and 7 strikeouts through only 9.2 innings of work.

And it’s not just raw data saying he’s bad. His average exit velocity of 92.5 MPH places him in the 4th percentile (per BaseballSavant) among all MLB pitchers – and this is with a fastball that averages barely a mile more than that at 93.9.

There are plenty of solid options for relieving – specifically either for long relief or lefty specialists – that the team should look to either limit usage of Wentz or cut bait with him because he is going to be dead-weight in that pen and, with how this offense is performing, they seriously can’t afford it.

The Mixed Bag

Not all of the pitchers are really bad and not all of the pitchers are super good. Sometimes, they put together an elite start that has fans calling for an immediate extension, and sometimes, they put together an outing that reminds you why this team is hurtling towards a 100+ loss season.

Bailey Falter

I will admit, I am biased as I have written previously that I do not believe in Falter but am always happy when he manages to come through with a clutch performance – or, as has been the case lately, a string of clutch performances as Falter is currently riding a 21 inning scoreless streak and has allowed just one run in this last 23.2 innings pitched.

He’s not going to blow batters away with velocity or rack up a ton of strikeouts but he has elite extension and is VERY tough to hit when his stuff is on. That said, when his stuff is not on, he can get hit very hard and very often, including a pair of games against the 2024 World Series participants (New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers) in which he allowed a combined 14 runs over just 8 innings pitched.

Now these are too very good offenses and we shouldn’t expect him to keep either of those squads at bay; however, they’re more a sign of teams who execute when Falter plays with fire than just an unfortunate one-off – or, I guess two-off – that wouldn’t be expected again.

There’s just not a great place to slot Falter, especially with his iffy strikeout rate (18.2%) and pretty high walk rate (8.4%). He’s been really great a bunch of the time and absolutely lousy on other occasions. If he can keep being serviceable like he has the past few weeks, I will certainly pull back my criticisms on the surging southpaw but I wouldn’t push chips in on sustained success for him quite yet.

Andrew Heaney

I may need to just call this the “Southpaw Section” because we are adding Heaney to this mix. I was ecstatic when the Bucs announced that they signed Heaney this offseason because he felt like someone who would fit in extremely well with the Pirates. Additionally, he very much fit the mold of a veteran lefty signed to a 1-year deal to likely be flipped at the deadline a la Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana, among others.

And out of the gate, Heaney did not disappoint. Through his first five starts, Heaney posted a 1.72 ERA through 31.1 innings pitched and had 31 strikeouts to just 6 walks. Unfortunately, his next four starts were much less rosy – 19.1 innings pitched, 5.12 ERA with 7 strikeouts and 13 walks.

I started writing this prior to Wednesday’s game and he managed to post a solid outing overall in spite of only 9 whiffs against a fairly whiff-happy hitting squad in the Reds but it is starting to feel like the magic may be waning on the Heaney Express.

His exit velocity over the first 5 games was 88 MPH with a hard hit rate of 34.2% and a 6.3% barrel rate – all very good numbers that you love to see, but he also had a .218 BABIP which has jumped to .258 in the next 4 outings, partly as a result of his 91.2MPH average exit velocity, 45.7% hard hit rate and 12.9% barrel rate.

Maybe this is just the league adjusting to him and he needs to adjust back or maybe it’s a sign that the flash-in-the-pan of the early season is unlikely the reality of who we will see from the veteran lefty every fifth game.

David Bednar

I think a lot of fans wrote Bednar off before the start of the season, and the cries only got louder as the struggles reemerged with losses in two of his first three appearances this year but – and I mean this in the most unbiased way it can possibly sound – Renegade is SO back!

Ok, that didn’t sound unbiased at all and there’s a reason that Bednar is in this category. As of this writing, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP through 14.1 innings pitched. That is obviously very bad; however, 3 of his 8 earned runs were in his first two appearances and he has not allowed an earned run in 11 of his 17 appearances thus far this year.

I know, that’s a low bar, but when it was almost every other outing the last few months of 2024 when he would be surrendering runs left and right, this is great to see – especially when you see that he’s back to getting the kind of red on his ledger that we had come to expect during his All Star years: 33.3% strikeout rate, 32.2% whiff rate, 4.8% walk rate with a fastball that touches 99 and a curve that has brought its sharp break back to the game.

Again, he’s got a long ways to go before we look to move him up a tier but, at the very least, fans have to be happier with how he looks now than he did at basically any point since last August.

The Unexpectedly Solid Relievers

Each year, basically every team with a payroll that isn’t equivalent to the GDP of Micronesia will look to sign pitchers to minor league deals or spring training flyers hoping that they could show something that would indicate that they can help the team win games once the real season begins.

The Pirates, obviously, are no exception to that as they have long admired the waiver wire and bargain bin for low-cost trades and cheap signings of pitchers to supplement depth and, at times, find the rare diamond in the rough. And, regardless of how it happens, it’s great to have a player you didn’t expect to perform well – or, at least, not as well, to come out as one of your better pieces in the pen.

Caleb Ferguson

The southpaw Ferguson was signed to a 1-year, $3M deal this past offseason and, while he was told there was a chance he could see opportunities as a starter if he performed well. That starting option hasn’t come to pass yet – as many likely figured – but he has been mostly excellent in relief.

While he has had three appearances this month where he allowed 2+ runs in < 1 inning, he has also been running off a number of outings where he doesn’t allow any hits or even walks most of the time.

Ferguson has pitched 21.1 innings this season and appeared in 23 games – the most of anyone on the team – posting a 4.22 ERA but with a much more solid 3.34 FIP and a strong 1.20 WHIP. Of those 23 appearances, 13 of them did not result in a batter getting a hit against him and only one time did he allow more than 3 baserunners in an appearance.

His biggest feature is that he avoids barrels and generates weak contact. No, strike that, he generates the WEAKEST of contact. His hard hit rate of 22.4% and average exit velocity of 82.4 MPH are among the best in all of MLB and that certainly makes him a valuable asset out of the pen.

Chase Shugart

Acquired from the Red Sox this past offseason, Shugart has thrown 20.2 innings for the Pirates with a resounding 2.61 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP through 18 appearances.

Like Ferguson, Shugart relies on soft contact over missing bats as his average exit velocity (85.4 MPH) is also among the tops in MLB but, as nice as this level of success has been, it is likely unsustainable given his low strikeout (16.3%) and high walk (11.3%) rates coupled with an impossibly low .196 BABIP.

He’s going to regress and it’s going to likely happen really fast and hit really hard but until then, let’s just enjoy what Shugart has to offer.

Ryan Borucki

Technically, Borucki is in his third year with the Bucs after breaking out with a 1.4 bWAR season in 2023 where he tossed 40.1 innings with a 2.45 ERA but injuries sidelined him for much of 2024 and when he did finally return, the results were awful as he posted a 7.36 ERA through 11 frames last year.

Resigning with the team ahead of 2025 has proven fruitful for both sides as Borucki has appeared in 19 games for the Pirates with a solid 3.57 ERA and more than solid 0.96 WHIP through 17.2 innings of work.

Feel like a broken record in this section but – say it with me – Borucki gets weak contact. His average exit velocity of 85.3 MPH is in the 97th percentile and his barrel rate is just 4.4%. Additionally, he generates ground balls like nobody’s business.

Among pitchers with at least 50 batters faced this season, Borucki ranks 6th in ground ball rate with a staggering 66.7%. Given that he is coupling that with extremely weak average contact, this seems like a fairly solid bet that he should maintain this level of production moving forward.

Final Thoughts?

Maybe we make too much of coaching changes but, since Don Kelly took over as skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 9th, the rotation has posted an MLB-best 1.70 ERA over 68.2 innings pitched so he is clearly watching to ensure that these guys aren’t over-extended and waiting too long to pull the trigger. At the same time, we have had numerous issues with the bullpen over that same stretch (5.11 ERA through 37 relief innings) so it’s still a work-in-progress.

This pitching is overall not great but it’s really not bad either. There are pieces in the wrong roles and players who maybe shouldn’t have a role on this or any team (too harsh?) but big picture, they’re moving in the right direction and the successes would be much more magnified if the hitting could just muster more than a few runs each week.

What do you think about the Pirates pitching currently? Are they on the right track or is hitting not the only issue plaguing this scuffling squad? Let us know in the comments!

Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (24-26) at Pittsburgh Pirates (17-33)

5-22-2025 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

Milwaukee comes to town after winning a series against the struggling Baltimore Orioles. The Brewers had a good enough April, going 16-11. But so far in May, they are 8-11. They also dropped their 4 games in March. They have not been more than 2 games over .500 in 2025. They also have gone 9-16 on the road. They are averaging 4.24 runs per game but are giving up 4.38.

The Pirates, on the other hand, are scoring just 2.92 runs per game and giving up 4.22 runs per game. Mike Burrows is making his season debut on Thursday, then the rest of the rotation will follow. – a strong rotation going into a 4-game series. The biggest question is if they can score enough runs to support that staff. Currently riding a streak of 26 games of 4 or less runs scored. That is tied for a major league record. With that said, 4 runs per game, this weekend, could likely result in a 3-1 series win.

5/22

Brewers: Aaron Civale 0-1, 3 IP, 15.00 ERA, 2 SO, 1 BB, 1.67 WHIP

Pirates: Mike Burrows (AAA Stats) 2-1, 32.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 41 SO, 11 BB, 1.05 WHIP

5/23

Brewers: Freddy Peralta 5-3, 55.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 57 SO, 20 BB, 1.06 WHIP

Pirates: Paul Skenes 3-5, 62.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 62 SO, 16 BB, 0.95 WHIP

5/24

Brewers: Quinn Priester 1-2, 38.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 25 SO, 22 BB, 1.47 WHIP

Pirates: Mitch Keller 1-6, 58 IP, 3.88 ERA, 48 SO, 17 BB, 1.31 WHIP

5/25

Brewers: Logan Henderson 3-0, 16 IP, 1.69 ERA, 23 SO, 4 BB, 0.81 WHIP

Pirates: Bailey Falter 3-3, 54 IP, 3.50 ERA, 39 SO, 18 BB, 1.13 WHIP

Brewers: Rhys Hoskins – As upset as Brewers fans may have been with Rhys Hoskins’ 2024 season, they are equally excited about how he’s been so far this season. His slash line is almost 100 points higher in all 3 stats so far this season. (.300/.402/.500, OPS .902) In his last 7 games, he’s batting .458 and slugging .958 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, and 5 BB. 11 hits in 7 games and 20 in his last 15 games while hitting .377. He homered Tuesday and Wednesday against the Orioles coming into this series.

Pirates: Rotation (Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows) – These four pitchers will take the ball in this series. Using Burrows’ AAA statistics look at the last 3 starts for all 4 pitchers combined.

12 G, 70.1 IP, 1.54 ERA, 12 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 74 SO, .194 AVG, 1.02 WHIP

Brewers: Christian Yelich – Yelich has just one hit in the last 7 days. In those 23 AB, he’s slashing .043/.120/.043. Typically a force in this lineup, he’s been struggling the last week and the majority of the season. Especially in May, he’s slashing .129/.176/.229.

Pirates: Joey Bart – Bart had just 1 hit in 12 AB against the Reds. He only has 3 hits since the Mets series, going back to May 11th when he had a 3-hit game against the Braves. His lone hit against the Reds was an RBI double, but that was his only time on base. Since May 11th his AVG has dropped from .301 to .262 and after hitting .310 in April, he’s batting .214 in May. It will be interesting to see if Henry Davis gets the first couple games of this series to ride his 2-hit performance Wednesday.

Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby, Jose Quintana, Robert Gasser, DL Hall, Blake Perkins, Nestor Cortes, Connor Thomas

Pirates: Endy Rodriguez, Colin Holderman, Johan Oviedo, Dauri Moreta, Nick Gonzales, Tim Mayza, Justin Lawrence, Enmanuel Valdez, Jared Jones

Notes

  • Jared Jones had a successful surgery on his right elbow this week. Not Tommy John Surgery, though. Instead, it was an internal brace surgery. The timetable for return is 10-12 months.
  • Will the Pirates score 5, or more, runs in any game this weekend? They have tied the MLB record for most consecutive games of scoring 4 or less runs (26).
  • Bailey Falter has a 2.32 ERA at PNC Park this season in 5 starts. That includes his first home start against the Dodgers when he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings. Since then, he has surrendered just 1 run against him in 27 innings at PNC Park. He gets the start Sunday.

Starter Spotlight: Brady Bunch Of Baserunners

5-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

It only took one run to get the win yesterday but the Bucs are hoping they can get more than that against the starter in the finale today, Brady Singer, who enters with a rough 5.01 ERA through his first 9 starts to the season.

Singer has been struggling a bit in his first season with the Reds, coming over from Kansas City in exchange for Jonathan India this past offseason as he has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of his 9 starts so far on the year.

Many of us felt that Singer would struggle after leaving the pitcher-friendly confines of Kaufman Stadium to arrive at the exact opposite with Great American Ballpark – and, well… he definitely has some serious home/away splits.

The ERA might be boosted a bit due to a game earlier this month when he allowed 7 runs in 2.1 innings at Houston but the fact still remains that he’s had significantly worse outings away from the home run haven.

Additionally, Singer has some SERIOUS struggles pitching out of the stretch as opponents are batting over 100 points higher against him with a runner on first base and 150 points higher if there’s a man on second or third.

We have covered Singer previously as the Pirates faced him on April 11th this year and weren’t able to get a big hit to break through, scoring 3 runs off 2 hits and 3 walks through 5 innings of work.

The 6’5 righty gets a lot of extension with his long levers but hasn’t managed to successfully execute with much else with below average marks across the board.

Singer works mostly with a low-90s sinker and low-80s slider loading the middle of the zone with the heat and dropping the breaking ball down and into the left-handed hitter’s batting box – which can be a problem.

The hard stuff will be what Bucs bats want to key in on today. In three games this month, opponents are batting .375 against Singer’s fastballs and slugging .700 over 34 batted ball events.

Look to drive the heaters and take walks when possible as he only has one outing this season without issuing a free pass but need to get those baserunners in bunches and find a way to execute some crooked numbers.

If they can break this sub-5 run streak of offensive ineptitude, they should be in a great position moving forward given how strong the pitching corps has performed.

Starter Spotlight: Change Things Up On Martinez

5-20-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Mired in the midst of arguably their worst season over nearly 75 years, the Pirates BADLY need a change. Instead, they will continue their series against Cincinnati as Nick Martinez toes the rubber for the Reds.

After accepting a Qualifying Offer from Cincinnati this past off-season, Martinez is currently the highest paid player on the Reds with a $21.05M salary.

And while he hasn’t been quite as dominant as 2024 when he went 10-7 with a 3.10 ERA through 142.1 innings pitched, he’s still finding solid success as he enters today with a 3.66 ERA through 51.2 frames this season.

He started twice against the Pirates last season, combining 9 innings of 7-hit, 1-run ball with 10 strikeouts and zero walks.

In fact, Martinez has consistently excelled at limiting free passes with his 5.3% walk rate this year sitting 7th lowest among NL qualified starters.

As I covered previously, Martinez relies on weak contact to generate much of his success, strongly held up with one of the better changeups in baseball.

Among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 changeups this season, Martinez ranks 8th in wOBA, 6th in batting average and expected batting average and 2nd in both expected slugging and xwOBA.

Opponents are batting just .130 and slugging .283 against his changeup but hitters have largely won the battle against his fastballs (.288/.486) and breaking balls (.289/.421).

Martinez employs a high release on his pitches that allows him to drive the ball more on a downward plane, typically locating his non-fastball offerings lower in the zone.

He tends to work 4-seam and cutters up and in against lefties with that changeup dropping down and away. By contrast, he primarily works sinker/sliders when facing righties – neither of which has been particularly effective for him (.420 and .360 wOBA) but the slider breaks down and away from righties and has a 44.2% whiff rate in those instances.

Hold to high heat, lay off the big spinning stuff down and be ready for a bunch of stuff in the strike zone.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Sure, Fire Cherington, but the Damage is Done

5-19-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Lots to cover, lots to say, lets do this with no preamble.

Lets Go!

1. Obvious Holes?

This entire offseason, fans, pundits, TV Talking heads, radio hosts, podcasters, everyone, has been parroting that this Pittsburgh Pirates team needed 2 bats. Specifically a left fielder, a first baseman and some were so bold as to suggest a short stop as well.

We all felt that, we all said that, we all watched as they chose to address only one and then due to injury have that player not debut until this past weekend.

Here’s the thing though, after watching this team play this season, if that’s what we’re calling what they’re doing, I’ve come to the belief that those two bats probably wouldn’t have been enough.

Now, that doesn’t mean I think they shouldn’t have gotten more, it just means, nobody, and I mean all of us who were talking, thought that they’d have guys like Bryan Reynolds, or Oneil Cruz struggle like this.

This was never going to be a “good” offense. I think it’s safe to say that even as we all called for those 2-ish bats, we didn’t see this turning into a top 10 offense. I think instead, most of us put our money on this pitching staff, and figured if we can just be league average offensively we might just have something here.

Well, there is no league average in this offense if Reynolds and Cruz aren’t both really good. Not doing ok, not just drawing walks and whatnot, but actually impacting baseballs, specifically providing power, this lineup just didn’t have the juice.

Spencer Horwitz could legitimately be a very good player here, and if he is, we’ll be happy they went and got him because he can be a real answer at a position of need, but that’s quite literally the only offensive component they brought in with purpose. I can’t even give you Alexander Canario who they traded for when he was placed on waivers. That’s a move of opportunity and desperation, desperation largely caused by your free agent answer to left field being Tommy Pham who you can’t squint hard enough to see as good at any aspect offensively.

Point is, they needed to add a couple bats, but they also needed the bats they already had to at least resemble the players they’ve been.

Cruz has for stretches anyway done his part, and I give him some grace for just having jumped back in after a back flare up that benched him for almost a week, and Reynolds is off to the worst start to a season in his career.

We could play chicken or egg here a bit. Are they struggling because they’re surrounded by bad hitters, or are they just part of the collection?

I guess what I’m saying is now that Horwitz is back and fully acknowledging that Tommy Pham is on the bench with Canario starting most games in his spot, this team is Nick Gonzales away from what this GM intended to be the full strength starting lineup when the team broke camp.

….And

It doesn’t feel like they’re 2 bats away anymore does it?

Cherington was wrong for not getting those 2 to begin with, but I think it’s fair to say we, collectively, were wrong about how much better position 2 bats would put them in.

If Cruz and Reynolds get right, and Horwitz looks like an actual piece, and Gonzales helps when he returns, it’ll feel more doable heading into the offseason, but it must be acknowledged, good players start out cold in other cities too, they just don’t have Tommy Pham and Adam Frazier surrounding them to make it through.

At least not the teams that survive it.

2. Jared Jones

Well, this was always a possibility, and I say that before we truly know anything other than Jared is headed for another consult with Dr. Keith Meister. The same doctor who said there is little UCL damage and no immediate need for surgery. This was the result of his second opinion, and it was always going to be left on the table as an option.

He’ll see the doctor on Tuesday, this after a late reported set back in his rehab.

So let’s talk this through.

First, if he has a full on UCL procedure, he’ll miss the rest of this year, and likely and for practical purposes all of 2026. I won’t even touch at this time how the 2027 season should be seen as shaky at best with the CBA expiring after the 2026 season, but it’s out there.

Bottom line, if this is a partial, he could be on a shorter schedule, but not so much that you expect him to return full throttle in 2026, if it’s full, well, we might not see him back until whenever, if ever, they start playing baseball in 2027.

And he’ll be immediately on Arbitration.

Now, couple this with the news that Hunter Barco was removed from a game after only 23 pitches. We don’t yet know the extent of this, but he was drafted by the Pirates where he was expressly because he was recovering from UCL surgery, otherwise he would have been at the top of every team’s board.

Suddenly, all that young pitching we were supposed to be trading for bats, well, there aren’t as many are there? Funny how that works.

The excitement about this rotation and all the young arms coming for me was never about pretending I knew a magical set of 5 that would ultimately get here and run rough shot through the league, it was about having so many that they can survive two injuries like this and still have more.

Hindsight is never fair to use to justify anything. It’s an advantage decision makers don’t get when they make the decision, and it’s not fair to pretend it was super apparent after you’ve seen it play out a bit.

That said, Jared Jones eventually having to have UCL done was something just about everyone seemed to see coming. Physics just doesn’t like someone with that frame throwing 100 MPH, and this is the party trick it tends to bring when you ignore it. So, when there was interest in Jones in the offseason, well, if there were legit offers this kind of eventuality you’d hope would be going through your head.

Keeping depth is great, but understanding what this team needed, and how hard it was going to be to expect health from everyone, I’d hope that given a chance to improve your team, take advantage of a real talent and his value, coupled with the risk you have to see, well, again, I’m asking the guy to be psychic I guess, but on the other hand I had myself so convinced this would happen at some point I guess I just feel it would have been a good bet that you were both getting help and offloading the handling of that aspect of things.

Who knows though, maybe he wouldn’t have even passed the physical.

This is a really good kid, with a ton of fight in him. I have no doubt he’ll return, eventually, and I equally have no doubt he’ll look great when he does. I feel for him too, he’s one of the more intense competitors I’ve ever had the pleasure to talk to. It just oozes from him, he wants nothing to do with anything but targeting and destroying the challenge in front of him.

I’m probably not the first person who kinda questioned how fast a pitch someone his size should try to live at. He trusts himself, and works harder than most to achieve it.

Lastly, and I know this is going to be unpopular, the Pirates didn’t screw this up.

In know, I know.

None of this is done without a doctor, and the doctor the Pirates are using, Meister is widely used, and widely respected. If he thought a surgery was an absolute must, Jones would have gone under the knife back in April.

I can tell you the player wanted to avoid it. I can tell you that wouldn’t matter if there was no way to avoid it, or no chance it was going to heal.

We’re talking about a month delay, it really doesn’t change all that much as it pertains to his return date, unless of course he went from a partial procedure to full on UCL because it got worse, which even then, would have been under the supervision of a doctor.

I understand the environment, but in this case, I just don’t think we need to pretend this is another thing Cherington messed up. He’s done enough real stuff, we don’t need to add tangents and pretend he’s some all powerful being too.

3. The Horse is Friggin’ Dead Already

I’m tired.

Yes, of bad baseball, but also some of the commentary on it. I’m bored of beating the living shit out of a dead horse.

Here are some of the things that in my mind are well established, almost universally agreed upon and frankly, I just don’t feel like having to mention them every time I open my mouth or pound my fingers on a keyboard.

Fire Cherington – Uh huh. Can I just ask, who that covers this team at any level has advocated for not firing him? I haven’t seen it, honestly. I’m not even wading into when, or if it would actually help, or who would replace him, I’m simply saying, we ALL get it, we ALL agree. Saying it every day, especially after a loss like he directly made a decision that very day to make it happen, I’m just not interested anymore. Say what you like, just don’t expect a response anymore, and I’m not going to lead everything I write or say with it as a prerequisite.

It’ll Never Change Under Nutting – OK. Well, why fire Cherington then? I mean, if you think it doesn’t matter beneath him, why does the GM matter? Why did the manager matter? Why are you watching? This is not to be confused with people simply calling for Nutting to sell the team, have at it. It won’t happen, at least not before this CBA, but have a blast calling for it however you like. This comment though, enough. There’s no direction to head from there in any conversation, if you truly feel that way, I won’t go so far as to tell you to quit watching, but I’m for sure all done replying to it. Again, you’ve left no room for conversation there. The truth is, a GM could do a better job here, even with the restrictions working for Nutting provide. Will it ever be enough to bring a World Series? Well, I’ve seen one team do it with a payroll that wasn’t in the top 10 and it was 10 years ago. That’s the list.

Move the Team – As succinctly as I can put it, how about you kiss my ass? This is my baseball team, and I watch and support them because they play in and represent my city. My grandparents brought me up in it, and they watched a lot of bad baseball too outside of one glorious year in the 60’s and a crazy good decade. I can’t believe there are any actual Pirates fans advocating for this. It’s devastating for a community and this team has so much MLB history tied to it, I find it hard to believe MLB would entertain it. The truth is, there aren’t enough major media markets in the country to have all 30 capable of competing at the same level. This is the same for every single league in Major North American Pro sports. Most of them have addressed the issue, one is still pretending there’s a real way out short of legislating it in. Moving the team is about as dumb as the idiots that claim they’re leaving the country if the politician they prefer loses. In both cases, we’d be better off if they did.

MLB Has to Step In – Well, they won’t. Nothing Nutting does is against the MLB rules. You may hate hearing that, but it’s true. Sure, grievances get filed, but none of them go anywhere. I’ll remind you, since we seem to forget it on the daily in other walks of life, being accused of something untoward doesn’t mean you’ve actually done anything untoward. MLB has to fix their system. I personally think a cap system (and don’t make me add “with a floor” to my list) would solve everything, but at the end of the day, the system and MLB know damn well they’re operating an imbalanced vessel, and they know damn well what that creates. Revenue sharing dollars are not directly tied to player salaries, never have been, never will be, until such a time as MLB can wrangle in spending with a system change, and I mean on the top and bottom it’s always going to be hard to convince smaller market teams that spending 5 million on a Dominican Training facility isn’t more valuable than an extra Tommy Pham. A tangent of this is asking the local government to step in, they can’t even figure out the PRT schedule.

I could probably go on, but that’s enough. I’m just tired of hearing some of this nonsense, it’s unproductive bitching for the sake of bitching. Your right of course, but mine too, to not deal with it anymore. When a problem is solved, meaning you know the answer, I’m not sure why you would continue to ask it in the same way to the same audience the next day.

4. Why Not Call Up Bubba Chandler?

Well, let me tell you what I’m fairly sure it isn’t. Super 2 or fear he’ll win Rookie of the year. I mean this in the most kind to Bubba way I possibly can, but he ain’t Skenes, and they ignored both of those things for him.

Now, if you’re super cynical, I suppose you could say they learned their lesson since Paul won the Rookie of the Year and they don’t want to repeat the “mistake” and have Bubba awarded a year of service time too, but honestly, that’s such a long shot, I just can’t fathom it, even for this management team.

I’d also ask, with Cherington being every bit a lame duck, why would he actively not want to add a pitcher like this to help the only version of this team he’s sure to supervise? I mean, why would he be concerned with what happens 5 years from now when it’s likely another GM’s issue?

I still personally think he’ll get called up during this homestand that opens tonight, but if he doesn’t, well, I think there are some reasons, and I mean baseball reasons.

First things first, I’m not overly concerned that he hasn’t eclipsed 5 innings yet. Some of it is by design, he does have a very real innings count for 2025 and they have done this with similar talents, including Paul Skenes himself.

That said, many of those 5 innings or less outings, his pitch count has gotten into kinda insane territory.

Just yesterday he threw 86 pitches, 9 runners in 4.1 innings pitched. It came with 7 Strike outs too, which is a hell of a lot for 4.1 innings, but guys are making him work, and frankly, he’s a bit wild, hitting the strike zone about 63% of the time, which can be fine if you’re getting results, but guys won’t chase to the same level up here as they do in the minors either, so it’s a concern.

See, the thing is, the Pirates putting innings restrictions on him, well, they don’t matter if he’s going to be near 100 pitches by the 5th every game.

Some outings have been way better than others, but 2 of his last 3 weren’t exactly screaming call me up dummy!

With the season being where it is, sure, I just want to get him up here and see him pitch too, but I do think you should brace yourself, cause if he comes up here and goes about walking guys at a 3.86 BB/9 clip, well, he’ll be out of most games by the fifth, and that wouldn’t be much different than the guy they’d likely replace in the rotation.

His K/9 of 13.50 is exceptional, but the way he pitches I think it’s fair to expect this figure will go down a bit and the BB/9 will increase.

Again, I want to see him, and I’m confident we will but starting pitching hasn’t really been the team’s issue, and in my mind, he has a lot more clean up to do. Now, that can and maybe should happen up here, but I think after say 4-5 times through the rotation, I bet it looks a lot like what Mlodzinski has already put on the back of his baseball card.

Many of his outings are either on Pittsburgh Sports Net or they’ve been the free game of the week on MiLB.com. If he gets another shot in the minors, please do watch him pitch. Not highlights, I mean actually watch him pitch. You could get one of his peak performances, and I’ll look dumb, or, you could see what I’m seeing and find yourself having a bit of hesitation on that call for him to immediately come up here.

Unless every hitter he faces up here are Javy Baez from a couple years ago, I’m going to be proven right on the walk and K totals. Guys up here simply aren’t going to make the mistakes that the competition he’s currently facing do, not regularly and he doesn’t get to face the Pirates in his debut.

5. Orioles and Pirates, Opposite Sides of the Same Coin

The Orioles can’t pitch, and the Pirates can’t hit. Both went into a deep dark rebuild, both drafted high repeatedly, both focused on bringing in as much talent as they possibly could. Both made trades to try to fill holes, both don’t like to spend money to fill them, or can’t depending on which side of the reality fence you like to live on.

The Orioles are 15-30, the Pirates are 15-32.

Both teams fired their managers, Brandon Hyde and Derek Shelton. Both will likely move on from their GM, and one was recently sold to a new owner, who is just about as willing to spend money as his predecessor.

The Orioles have 4 pitchers in their top 10 prospects list, only one of them at the AAA level.
The Pirates have 3 offensive players in their top 10 prospects list, only 1 of them at the AAA level, and 1 in AA.

Both of these teams need right now help, and I don’t mean for this year, I mean to salvage their builds.

I drool when I look at the Orioles top prospects, or even just what their team can do offensively at the MLB level, and I’m sure Orioles fans look at Pittsburgh thinking exactly the opposite.

I’d tell you these two teams would make great trade partners, and on the surface, they certainly do but here’s the thing, the perceived strengths of each team, well, they aren’t performing as such.

The Orioles with all that offensive talent, 24th in batting average at .231, just a couple spots above the Pirates who are tied for dead last at .217.

In other words, they might want and need more of that top ranked offense to come through yet.

Now the Pirates, and that daunted pitching staff, specifically starting pitching. Even without Jared Jones, the Pirates come in 15th in Starting Pitching ERA at 3.87 and the Orioles, 29th with a 6.01 ERA.

The Pirates, well, they could stand to improve, especially hitting the way they do and they might want to use their internal structure to do so.

The Orioles aren’t going to take a lower lever starter, no matter how good they are, and the Pirates shouldn’t take someone from their lower levels either.

Both of these teams need things to change, even if this year has been wasted. Both of them have a path to correcting the deficiencies in their builds, but both of them need to have serious conversations about how they managed to suck for as long as they did and only built one side of the equation.

There are other teams out there for each to look at, I’m not pretending both are SOL because this isn’t a clean a match as it might be.

If anything, this is a lesson.

No matter how incredible a rebuild looks like it’s shaping up to be with prospect load and talent, you still have to have success on both sides of the ball. You still have to develop and deploy them capably when you get to the MLB level and more than anything, you have to have an understanding of what you have and haven’t done well and make moves to adjust to the realities of your effort.

It’s actually very normal for things to go this way, and so are the adjustments you need to make. Every team that’s ever tried this has had to made at least one uncomfortable deal to see if they couldn’t make a go of their construction.

Sometimes it’s a GM change and nothing more than their fresh eyes help steer the ship back from the brink. Sometimes a new GM doesn’t have the same allegiance to prospects that were seen as untouchable and that opens the door.

From my perch in Pittsburgh, I’ve endlessly heard how much better the Orioles have done with their build, especially when compared to the Pirates.

I’m not saying this to cut the sting of watching this team, or to talk about how successful this effort is or will be. I’m saying it simply to illustrate that the path to a rebuild is rarely a good as it looks, and you almost never get where you wanted to go without making a fairly large adjustment somewhere along the line.

That doesn’t make it better. It’s not intended to.

The Orioles Mark Elias has been the GM in Baltimore since 2019. He’s done a great job right? He even won MLB executive of the year in 2023 and folks, this pitching issue, it was very much so in play back then too.

Much like Cherington, everyone and their mother assumed they’d trade some of that offensive talent for pitching. They did but it was for help they couldn’t keep.

Cherington just tried to do the opposite, he moved an MLB pitcher for help at first base that he hopes helps for years to come.

I’m not telling you one is right and one is wrong, I’m just saying even if they try different things, the problem remains and the only advantage the Pirates have is that they live in a much more winnable division.

The stories aren’t written, but we’ve reached the point in the story where the hero is supposed to fight back from the brink and triumph. Rarely does it play out like a super hero movie in this sport though.

Sometimes it simply requires a new hero.

Starter Spotlight: Nick At Night

5-19-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With both teams surging in drastically different directions, the Pirates welcome the Reds and former Pirate draft pick in lefty Nick Lodolo, who will be making his tenth start on the year as he comes into today with a 3.42 ERA through his first 52.2 innings pitched.

Lodolo pitched against the Bucs twice last season, dominating them for 7 innings of 1-run ball on June 18th but saw the tables turn in his last game of the season as the Pirates piled on for 5 runs in 4.2 innings of work on August 22nd.

I have previously written about what the side-arm swinging Lodolo offers ahead of each these games (here and here) so this time, I want to talk about some interesting splits for the 27-year old southpaw.

There are two conflicting things to watch for in today’s game: First, Lodolo has struggled under the lights. His 4.08 ERA at night this season is nearly 3 runs higher than during the daytime mark of 1.38.

Across the board, Lodolo has shown a strange inability to perform in the evening as opponents are batting .261 against him at night compared to .156 during the day while 5 of his 6 home runs allowed have come after the sun has set.

It’s a small sample size but even looking to last year where he posted a 5.20 ERA at night over 72.2 innings or 2023 when he had a 9.87 ERA through 17.1 frames under the stars show that when the sun goes down, so can Lodolo.

On the other hand, Lodolo has a career 5.14 ERA pitching in Cincinnati (164.2 innings) compared to 3.38 in any other park (141). That’s the difference between being Roy Halladay (career 3.38 ERA) or Jordan Lyles (5.22 ERA).

Opposing hitters are slashing .187/.275/.307 in their home parks this season compared to posting a .293/.371/.492 line when Lodolo takes the ball to start the game.

Which side will win out in tonight’s matchup? Given the way the Pirates offense has performed thus far, I wouldn’t want to push in my chips on them quite yet but at least there’s an opening where they have potential to break through against an opposing starter.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds (24-24) at Pittsburgh Pirates (15-32)

5-19-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

While each team was part of a weekend rivalry sweep, things were certainly sunnier in Ohio for the Reds than in Philly for the Pirates. The Reds are riding a 4-game winning streak while the Bucs lost 5 of 6 in their road trip this past week and hope a return home helps ease the pain from their voyage out east.

This series will likely see a lot of strikeouts as the Reds (24%) and Pirates (23.7%) rank 4th and 5th in K rate for the hitting side. On the pitching side, while Reds starters rank 7th in K rate at 23.6%, the Bucs starting stable are near the bottom (24th – 19.3%) and need to get better at setting men down on strikes more often.

5/19

Reds: Nick Lodolo (L) 3-4, 52.2 IP, 3.42 ERA, 42 Ks/9 walks, 1.08 WHIP

Pirates: Mitch Keller 1-5, 52 IP, 4.15 ERA, 43 Ks/16 walks, 1.33 WHIP

5/20

Reds: Nick Martinez 2-4, 51.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 40 Ks/11 walks, 1.16 WHIP

Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) 2-3, 47 IP, 4.02 ERA, 34 Ks/18 walks, 1.21 WHIP

5/21

Reds: Brady Singer 5-2 54.2 IP, 5.01 ERA, 43 Ks/13 walks, 1.31 WHIP

Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) 2-3, 50.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 38 Ks/19 walks, 1.14 WHIP

Reds: Will Benson – Hard to pick anyone else as Benson is on a tear right now as he hit 4 home runs in the three game weekend series again Cleveland and, since his recall from Louisville on May 10th, he’s batted 11-for-26 with 5 home runs, 6 runs and 11 RBI.

Pirates: Alexander Canario – Man, this offense is REALLY bad but imagine how much worse they would be if Canario wasn’t clicking like he is. In the month of May, Canario has recorded hits in 11 of 13 games played with a .326/.383/.512 slash line in those contests.

Reds: Matt McLain – McLain had a strong start to his 2025 campaign, homering in 3 of his first 4 games of the season, but has just 3 home runs since then over 149 plate appearances while batting .167 dating back to the start of April. The Reds are tied for 10th in MLB for home runs but the power output expected from McLain just hasn’t been there for Cincy.

Pirates: With this offense, pick a direction and throw a rock. You’ll probably strike a Bucco bat who is playing below average. Oneil Cruz still doesn’t look right as he struck out 8 times in 9 plate appearances since his short stint resting from a back strain suffered last week. Joey Bart has just 2 hits (both singles) in his last 5 games. In fact, over the last week, only two players have more than 4 hits – the aforementioned Canario (8) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (6). The bats need to be better than this.

Reds: Jeimar Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Tyler Callihan, Jake Fraley, Julian Aguiar, Ian Gibault, Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Sam Moll, Carson Spiers, Brandon Williamson

Pirates: Endy Rodriguez, Nick Gonzales, Enmanuel Valdez, Dauri Moreta, Johan Oviedo, Jared Jones, Justin Lawrence, Tim Mayza

Notes

  • Jared Jones is reportedly visiting Dr. Meister on Tuesday to discuss next steps as he has tried rehabbing his UCL sprain but may need to undergo surgery to fix the issues.
  • Oneil Cruz and Elly de la Cruz enter this series tied for the National League lead in stolen bases at 16. While the Pirates’ Cruz is no longer playing shortstop, these two are showing some clear similarities in their profiles and will be ones to watch this series
  • The Pirates have been shut out 8 times this season as the offense has reached a low point this past weekend. They are last in SLG% (.322) and runs scored (141) while being tied for last in both batting average (.217) and wOBA (.279).