The Youth Movement Won’t Stop, Even if Veterans Slow it Slightly

7-3-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This team isn’t by any stretch of the imagination a finished product. They haven’t fully moved on to youth, nor have they entirely decided that veterans have no place. When the team brings up players from the IL this week, it’s gong to come at the expense of young players.

Temporarily.

Oh, it’s gonna melt the minds of a bunch of fans. Maybe even mine, but it’s also not going to last, and maybe that’s the most important takeaway. This isn’t forever.

As most of you know, my style is all about looking at problems from every angle I can think of. I miss some, and sometimes I don’t even believe entirely in the angle I’m trying to illustrate, but to me, if you don’t try to see both or all sides of an issue, you have no business pretending you have a well rounded and thought out position.

So folks, that’s what we’re going to do today. We’re going to take a look at each of the players who are potentially coming back. What they could bring to the table, why the team could benefit from returning them to the club. We’ll also look at why bringing them back could be a mistake, or at least talk to the detrimental side of each one.

It’s easy to say trade him or DFA him, but it’s another thing entirely to have really looked at each of these players thoroughly and still feel that way.

Let’s go.

Kevin Newman

For one thing, love him or hate him, let’s be real clear, Kevin Newman is a major league baseball player.

He may never be a starting player again, at least not on this baseball team, but he belongs in the majors.

I said before this season started, this would be Kevin’s final season as a Pittsburgh Pirate, and I still believe that to be true. His injury made me even more confident.

For one thing, he’s no longer going to be the starting short stop, that belongs to another right now, and even if he loses his grip on it, another will come behind. Entering arbitration, Kevin is going to cost more, even if only a little, than someone like Diego Castillo, or Tucupita Marcano. And I could go on, replacing him won’t be hard.

So why bring him back at all?

For one thing, he’s a major leaguer. I think I covered that. But a baseball team has a certain responsibility to their players. A former number one pick, even one that wasn’t this administration’s doing, earns a certain level of respect, and professionalism. He’s been a good actor on a bad team from the day he finally made the team and his exit will be handled as gracefully as possible.

They’ll do this for Kevin, but they’ll also do this for other players watching how it’s handled like Michael Chavis, or even future free agent signings. The message is, you may lose your position, but we won’t forget that you earned your way here. Essentially, we want to help you land.

The club will try to move him. He’ll do himself no favors if he doesn’t hit. Everyone knows he can field, but if he hits, there could legitimately be interest, especially with all the control he still has.

Now, how much is too much? Let’s say he comes up here and rakes. Plays a really solid second base too. Right handed bat on a team that simply doesn’t have many. Could he talk this team into maybe going one more season?

That’s a legitimate question. No matter how you feel about Newman. I already told you my preseason thoughts on that, and I’ve personally seen at least comparable talent replace him. I’ve also seen that there’s a place for someone from the right side who can hit over .250. Even if it’s only to hold a place for Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales and more.

All this boils down to, he’s going to return, and I for one am going to welcome back someone with a bit more experience. Someone that took his inferior skills and sculpted them into a gold glove caliber defender, should be able to help a young potential superstar learn how to maximize his talents into simply being the very best defender he can be.

This could last all of 3 weeks, but it’s gonna happen.

Jake Marisnick

The first thing to mention here, Jake Marisnick did nothing wrong. The Pirates knew two things when they signed him, Jake was arguably going to be the best defending outfielder on the team, and he also wasn’t going to help much at the plate.

That’s what he delivered, a tremendous glove, and a bat that still really didn’t play often enough.

This was before the Pirates discovered, or more aptly, were forced to discover what they had in the minors. Jack Suwinski, is of paramount interest. He’s hit for power, he’s hit for drama, and he’s played a very clean outfield. Canaan Smith-Njigba didn’t get much time before breaking his wrist but he paved the path for Bligh Madris. Travis Swaggerty got 9 at bats, but he too is primed for a shot.

Tucupita Marcano has shown a real ability to play corner outfield too.

Reality is, Jake was a pick up out of necessity and a big part of me thinks he’ll be set free to be someone else’s necessity pick up. Not via trade, but from being turned loose by the Pirates.

He’s different than other players because he has no team control beyond this season, and more than that, he was likely never under the impression he was more than a stop gap to begin with.

We already mentioned how few bats the Pirates have from the right side, but they have plenty who can’t hit above .225. If I had my guess, Jake is not returning, and our next contestant sews that up in my mind.

Ben Gamel

Ben was a waiver wire pickup for the Pirates in 2021. A badly needed injection of professionalism and veteran presence. He’ll try anything the team needs.

Want a leadoff guy? Well, Ben can take a crack, hell he’ll even change his typical approach at the plate to make sure it fits there. Need a guy to get that big hit, Ben isn’t the most talented player on the roster but he knows how to work a pitcher. He’ll use that ability to wait out the guy and get a pitch he can use.

What if you need him to play first base? OK coach, I’ll give it a shot.

He’s been cut. He’s been told he wasn’t good enough. He’s felt the pain of seeing kids take his job, in fact he’s seen it happen after pouring his advice and guidance into them. He’s done it with a smile.

This is a guy that a team like this needs. Personally, I’d make his expiring contract look more like a 2 year extension, but that topic is for another day. For now, suffice to say, I want Ben Gamel on this team, in fact I think they desperately need the leadership.

That’s not to say the team lacks any, but Ben provides a different kind of leadership. He’s not quiet about it, nor is he shy about showing players what leaving it all on the field looks like.

They have to bring him back, and while I think there will be takers at the deadline, I highly recommend the team think of how the value won’t touch what he provides.

Yoshi Tsutsugo

Yoshi burst on the scene after the Pirates acquired him in 2021. He hit some thunderous homeruns, but after his initial burst, he cooled.

There were immediate questions about what exactly the Pirates were doing.

They picked him up and he had no team control. He was immediately going to be a free agent and after hitting 8 bombs, well, it seemed like he was just going to price himself out of town.

He appreciated the opportunity Ben Cherington gave him, and signed with the club for a one year contract, even while he wanted 2 or more.

The Pirates simply don’t have a lot at first base. Mason Martin has shown his warts and he’s only 22 so it’s not time to force him up regardless. Michael Chavis has proven himself capable but that certainly wasn’t a given.

Yoshi did nothing at the plate. A .177 batting average, with only two homeruns. It started looking like Yoshi thought he was brought here to draw walks, instead of hit homeruns.

He’s raking in AAA and to be frank, that’s what he did last season before the Pirates picked him up.

I personally think the Pirates would be best just letting him go, if only because I can’t see where he fits. Even if he is successful, is there enough time left before the deadline to convince someone he’s worth trading for? Even if he does, is he going to return anything worthwhile?

If it’s just about getting a lefty at first base who isn’t super good or experienced at the position, wouldn’t Ben Gamel or Bligh Madris fill the bill?

The team is hitting homeruns at a pretty good clip as we speak, so maybe they aren’t as desperate for power in any package as they were when they signed him.

This is a no for me, but every indication is the Pirates don’t agree.

Conclusion

There is value in returning veterans to the lineup and indeed the mix of this roster. Some will help more than others, and some the team should just choose to move on from, but when you look at the Pirates current set up, a couple things are very clear.

Too many kids is too many kids. And very few have put together a complete showing.

Diego Castillo for instance, he’s found his power, but he’s hitting below .200. He’s done ok in the field, but he has also faltered at times to get the job done. I’m picking on him, but look at the roster, just about everyone has something that isn’t clicking. Power, contact, fielding, approach, hustle, almost all of them have something that can be worked on.

That can be done here, right here in MLB. Sometimes though, the lesson that being called up isn’t always the beginning of the rest of the story is an important one. Ben Gamel knows that first hand, and even when he replaces someone after his rehab he’ll never forget how that goes, nor will he miss an opportunity to teach exactly how it’s not the end of the world. It’s not the end of your journey, your story, and you don’t have to take some GM’s word for it, here is this bearded, long haired, grizzled kid at heart to show you one day they’ll be moving kids aside to get back to the league themselves.

I don’t expect fans to be happy about all these moves, I probably won’t be myself. But do try to understand it. There simply is use and reason at play here and it won’t be long before things swing back in the other direction.

Baseball and the path to becoming an MLB fixture is never a guarantee. It’s rarely easy and sometimes it simply doesn’t make any sense. Above all though, just about every thing that happens on that path is valuable.

Just like some of these veterans still are.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Ben Gamel

6-30-22 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Joe Boyd- Justin, I think the folks are sick of us drumming up trades for the fan favorites, and the hometown heroes.  So this week I thought we’d talk Ke’Bryan Hay.. I’m just kidding.  Let’s talk about the man that’s been lost in the shuffle, Ben Gamel.  Prior to going on the IL on 5/29, he was slashing .257/.350/.386 while providing solid defense.  But since being on the shelf, Gamel has ushered in the youth movement seeing Jack Suwinski, Travis Swaggerty, Bligh Madris, Cal Mitchell, and Tucupita Marcano all take reps in the outfield.  So as much as you’d like to see a veteran stabilizing presence, I think we can agree that Gamel can best help this team by moving to a contender for a piece that can help bolster the youth movement. 

Justin Verno-–Don’t scare me like that, Joe!  Yeah, I think we lolly gagged enough. Let’s get to  the players that are more likely to call a new city home before the baseball season is over. (You digging the Bull Durham reference?)

There is a value in having a vet presence, I think we can all agree on that. But as we discussed last week on the Bednar values, roster construction needs to be a thing moving forward and the front office can get the ball rolling with some of these smaller deals. 

One thing I’d like to toss out there on these trades is I’ve had a lot of people tell me that keeping some of these guys over adding a prospect that grades out as a 45 or a 40+ or even a 35+ if that’s all the Bucs can get is a better plan than moving them. I understand people’s frustrations with moving these vets and all, but a lot of these mid level prospects pan out. Some develop and go on to bigger things while others become solid role players. Anyone want to guess what Bryan Reynolds’ scouting grade was? It was 45. How about  Tony Watson? He didn’t even make the Bucs top 30 list on any of the major publications. The point? Have fun with it as you never know how some of these guys will develop. 

JB – For a value, Gamel’s a bit easier as he is in his final year and his salary established (no arbitration estimates!). ZiPS has Gamel’s WAR projection at 0.5 Wins over the remainder of the 2022 season, so his value is as follows:

So the returns for Gamel will be firmly in the lottery ticket/depth categories. Still, not bad for a DFA claim. 

JV – While 2.7M doesn’t seem like a lot, there’s still some value to be found here but it needs to be mined a little. We aren’t looking to break the bank here, just find some hidden gems. 

MINNESOTA TWINS OFFER – JB

Cole Sands (40+ FV – $3M – ETA: 2022)

Sands popped for me based on his 3000 RPMs / 70-grade curveball.  If you look at Longenhagen’s write-up: “Sands’ money pitch is his incredible curveball, a 77-82 mph offering with an incredible amount of two-planed, sweeping action. Sands will try to run his 91-95 mph fastball past hitters at the letters, which he’s gotten better at doing since college due to a slight shift in his delivery that altered his fastball angle. He throws very few changeups and that pitch is still shy of average. That, plus Sands’ lack of innings, has us projecting him as a multi-inning relief stopper, a role we value in this FV tier.”

To me, that reads a lot like a Chris Stratton-type reliever that can wear many hats while bringing value in a multitude of situations.  I am on record as loving Stratton, so if the Bucs can find a younger clone, I’m all for it.  For reference, Stratton’s 3148-RPM curve is #2 in all of baseball, Sands’ would slot him at #7.  Not to make too much of a leap here, because I do see Sands as a long reliever, but Longenhagen grades out Sands very similarly to our own Michael Burrows. 

JV – I’m not exactly breaking ground here, but Cherington has not exactly built a good bullpen so adding a guy that helps immediately is a solid way to go, but I’m going  the opposite way of Joe with my proposal. My trade partner, the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants have a need and they won’t have to break the bank for Gamel, so that leaves them in a good position to make other moves to put it together down the stretch.

The Giants package – JV

SP Manuel Mercedes-ETA: 2025- (FV/40+ $3M)

Fangraphs describes Mercedes as loose and athletic. Standing at 6’3” and 162 LBs the 19 year old has plenty of projection left and adding velo to his fastball is a real possibility. The thing is he already sits 94-97 MPH and has touched 98. His arm slot is lower but still gets great action. 

His athleticism and frame suggest he should project as a starter, though he has a violent delivery that  leads to his control issues, CV 20, showing that the bullpen  could be his future. Add a slider(FV 50) and a change up(60 FV) to that 60 FV FB and you have the makings of a promising arm. 

I think adding a 35+ to this could be a possibility, but I’d be happy adding Mercedes to the system.


JB – My trade is a trade from a position of strength, left-handed outfielder, to bolster a position of need, pitcher.  This deal gives the Pirates 6 years of control of a player that could develop into a Chris Stratton type role player on a future contender.  That’s a type of deal you want to see this club make.  Bednar was a “throw-in” on the Musgrove deal and he turned out to be a rock star that anchors the bullpen, and this deal gets the Buccos a reliever that can handle a multitude of situations and provides Shelton flexibility.  Not a bad return for Gamel. 

JV – The Pirates have so many young OF clogging up the upper parts of the system moving Gamel is not just doable, it’s almost a crime if they don’t. And we absolutely understand the return won’t be sexy, but perhaps with a little patience we could find some treasure after walking the plank. 

Next week Joe and I will be tackling another rental, but I get the feeling that this one will get a little more push back. I hope you’re ready to take on Jose Quintana and his trade value!

Top 20 Prospect Update

6-29-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

Another busy week for our Bucs system. I don’t want to bore you, so let’s get it moving along here.

1-Oneil Cruz

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week
MLB.250/.250/.357.607.107.262670%25%
Season.232/.336/.422.758.190.33810212.1%22.7%

2-Henry Davis

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.316/.435/.6321.066.316.45919113%8.7%
AA.191/.345/.404.749.213.34311410.3%15.5%
A+.341/.450/.5851.035.244.4621798%18%

3-Roansy Contreras

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%k%
week101.805.135.441.5015.9%15.9%
MLB42.12.764.164.221.3510.4%23%
AAA14.22.454.541.1616.7%33.3%

4-Liover Peguero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
MLB.333/.500/.333.838.000.39515525%50%
Week.261/.320/.304.624.043.289787.7%23.1%
AA.289/.315/.454.769.165.3361103.4%22.9%

5-Quinn Priester-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week44.502.402.0011.1%27.8%
AA72.572.403.701.297.1%28.6%
A+2.216.887.522.652.636.7%20%
A30.003.774.7200%10%

6-Nick Gonzales-UPDATE: 60 day IL-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
week
season.247/.366/..377.742.130.34111213.4%32.8%

7-Endy Rodriguez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.304/.393/.478.871.174.38813514.3%14.3%
season.257/.344/.440.784.183.35411310%25.2%

8-Matt Fraizer

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.179/.258/.357.615.179.275696.5%22.6%
Season.215/.271/.356.627.142.280725.6%26.7%

9-Jared Jones

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week113.272.911.278.7%37%
season63.24.624.624.141.4310.4%30.8%

10-Bubba Chandler 

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week30.004.391.0025%33.3%
SEASON80.003.064.021.1318.2%39.4%
BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.143/.250/.571.821.429.35610712.5%37.5%
SEASON.286/.412/.8471.269.571.53721017.6%29.4%

11-Ji-hwan Bae

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
week.458/.480/.6671.147.2085012084%8%
season.319/.383/.496.879.177.3861359.4%16.2%

12-Michael Burrows

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week4.12.084.631.150%22.2%
AAA7.13.683.073.331.230%26.7%
AA50.22.132.873.981.039.4%32.5%

13-Travis Swaggerty

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week(AAA).286/.375/.476.851.190.37812912.5%25%
MLB.111/.111/.111.222.000.099-420%44.4%
AAA.277/.357/.336.803.169.35811611%27.5%

14-Miguel Yajure

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week1.113.504.233.7511.1%11.1%
AAA12.24.264.501.6613.6%20.3%
MLB10.111.325.896.672.1311.3%7.5%

15-Anthony Solometo-No stats this week-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPPBB%K%
Week
Season132.082.864.0601.089.3%24.1%

MY FIVE

16-Kyle Nicolas

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week2.26.757.901.508.3%16.7%
season43.14.154.233.991.279.3%30.6%

17-Brennan Malone-No stats this week-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
WEEK
A213.5017.977.802.507.7%23.1%
CPX33.002.703.651.677.7%30.8%

18-Dariel Lopez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.308/.308/.7691.077.462.4561770%23.1%
season.246/.293/.445.739.199.329975.3%30.5%

19- Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.071/.316/.286.602.214.3017926.3%31.6%
season.212/.336/.321.657.109.3158911.4%35.5%

20-Connor Scott

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.143/.280/.190.470.048.2374416%12%
season.257/.322/.366.688.109.310927.8%20.4%

A Few quick thoughts-

Congrats, again!

This isn’t Yajure’s debut. Heck, he started the year on the major league roster, but still glad to see him back. Hopefully he can put it together here. That said, his velo was down and his last outing was so-so, making this a call up that was dictated by a 40 man roster decision. And I suppose that’s ok but did it put Miguel in the best situation to succeed? At the time of reading this we will know what that outcome was, hindsight 20/20 and all.

Cold front…

Hudson Head continues being cool, and I don’t mean that in a good way. How does a kid walk 26% of his AB this week and STILL strike out at a 31% clip? Something needs to change Hudson. It might be time he follows fellow young Buc Escotto down a level.

Connor Scott, gone is the hot start that had us feeling good about the Stallings trade. Hopefully he has an adjustment in him and gets that stick going.

Explain it to me like I’m 4…

Ok, so at this point I need someone to help me with this, how is Mike Burrows not a 50 FV? His stuff looks great and he seems to be doing fine with his innings. The velo is checking out, the curve ball is…curving?..and the development of the change up looks great. It’s time to #BumpBurrows

Speaking of bumps, are we for real with Ji-hwan Bae still being a 45? While we are on this, how is he still in AAA? The bat is playing here folks. He has 26 extra base hits with 7 of those leaving the yard, good for an OPS of .879. His walk(9.4%) and K(16.2%) numbers are fantastic leading to a slash line of 316/383/496 all tremendous. He’s played SS, 2B, LF, RF and DH this year and he’s pretty solid at them all. I have to think we will see him soon or perhaps he has some value as a trade piece? Why not, there are many reasons you build a system, we won’t get to see all these guys parade thru PNC Park.

Not All Pirates Problems Are Bad

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-xxxei-125fafa

Matt Capps joins us to express concerns about David Bednar’s use, and he has the life-experience to speak on it. He also talks about what he sees lately from Mitch Keller. Is this the breakthrough? Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette also joins us to figure out what happens to young call-ups on the roster when players start returning from the IL. A roster crunch is coming.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

3 Burning Pirates Questions

6-28-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Sometimes asking questions is as far as we can get on a subject. Oh, we’ll all have opinions, some will back those opinions by facts, or even individual versions of facts, but I’m of the belief that we needn’t be qualified to answer a question, in order to ask it.

Today I want to ask some questions I just can’t work my way into anything resembling a true definitive answer, and see if maybe thinking through them will help.

How Can Ji-hwan Bae be Left in AAA?

The first thing to consider when thinking on this question is of course, what is he doing that’s so impossible to ignore?

Well, in 278 plate appearances, all he’s done is put together a .319 AVG, with a .496 SLG and an .879 OPS. He’s racked up 15 doubles, 4 triples and even popped 7 home runs.

Bruh.

He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter. Fast as hell and as you all know that doesn’t always lead to stolen bases, well, he’s got that too with 18 already as we sit here in late June.

Maybe he’s a poor defender.

He’s played 2B, 3B, CF, DH, LF, and SS this year. His primary spots are CF and 2B but he quite literally can bounce all over the field, and even with all the jumping around his Fld% sits at .965. He’s committed 20 total errors in 4 seasons of minor league ball.

So nope. lol

He’s going to turn 23 on July 26th, so he’s not old. He’s not on the 40-man but we’ve seen that not matter much for several other players already this season right?

Maybe he’s a one trick pony. Someone that the shift would destroy upon arrival in MLB.

Oh my, nope that’s not it.

So that leaves thinking others are better, or that he’s left handed.

Let’s start with splits.

Against left handed pitching, .375 AVG with a .525 SLG and .944 OPS. Right handed pitching .292 AVG with a .482 SLG and .848 OPS.

So, that’s not it.

Better than him? I mean, maybe that’s not fair. Better is sometimes trumped by not wanting to be done with a guy yet. But this is a team that has given regular at bats to Josh VanMeter, Yu Chang, Kevin Newman, Diego Castillo and Hoy Park, each of whom have nowhere near this kind of production.

All of this adds up to me simply not being able to answer how the hell he can be ignored.

How about you?

Is the Starting Rotation Taking Shape?

Everyone who covers this team, nationally and locally spent most of the pre-season talking about how awful the starting rotation was going to be.

The season started out proving us all correct, but that’s changing a bit.

Let’s start with this, out of this rotation, who do you want to see more of? For me, Roansy Contreras is a no brainer. Mitch Keller has shown a ton of signs that he’s turned a corner. JT Brubaker has an awful record, but he’s pitched much better in his last 8-10 outings.

Jose Quintana is almost assuredly going to get moved and Zach Thompson has pitched well, but he’s the only one of the five who hasn’t managed to really get stretched out beyond the 5 inning mark.

I think what’s safe to say here is that 3 of these guys will likely be back in 2023, maybe even 4 if Thompson improves. Thing with Thompson though, I think even if he doesn’t hang as a starter I really like his chances to become a good bullpen piece.

The team will have to go get more help, just like this season. An upgrade to Quintana would be nice, I mean I might even consider just keeping him around for a couple more seasons, but the Pirates are the Pirates for a reason.

Before this year is out, I think we could see Mike Burrows, and Cody Bolton get a crack. Next year I think we’ll add names like Kyle Nicolas, JC Flowers, Quinn Priester, Omar Cruz to the call up watch list.

I didn’t even mention guys like Tahnaj Thomas, Carmen Mlodzinski or for that matter Bryse Wilson.

I still think this team would do well to add from the outside. Kids play and pitch like kids, and I think in 2023 this club has a legit shot at .500, with expanded playoffs, guess what else that puts them in the conversation for.

They’ve been incredibly lucky to not have many injuries to the staff this year, next year I think they’re in better position to absorb them to a degree if and when they crop up. This year, a major injury to one of the 3 I mentioned primarily, well that would simply be catastrophic.

All in all, I think it’s starting to take shape.

Most people look at the individuals and see this rotation as underwhelming, but like George Carlin said, I never had a 10 but one night I had 5 twos. For this club, ascending to average would be an upgrade, and arguably the best staff they’ve had here since, geez, probably 2018?

I’m not here to tell you 2/3 of this rotation will be here when you or I consider this team a “competitor”, but I am here to tell you they’re much closer to competent, with a few elite’s toward the top once they develop fully.

Out of everyone I mentioned, aside from Quintana of course, there is only one lefty, Omar Cruz, and folks, that’s an issue. Organizationally speaking, left handed pitching is critically thin and that’s where some of that depth in the outfield and infield could help the Pirates, even if they never play an inning in Pittsburgh.

Overall I’m pleased with the progression. How about you?

We’re Happy to See the Kids, but How Much is Enough?

The first thing we should acknowledge here is that this issue isn’t evenly applied or thought through.

As fans, we tend to decide before a guy comes up whether he matters or not. Bring up a middle infielder not named Peguero, Cruz, Gonzales or maybe Bae and for the most part, fans don’t see it as likely you’re the future.

That’s completely normal, in fact it’s not even wrong per se, but it does change your patience level for watching a prospect.

Maybe I’m missing the point on some of these. For instance, a 26 year old getting his first taste of MLB, Bligh Madris, if my theory is correct should be met by jeers really. Now, he burst on the scene instead, looking mature and turning himself into someone I genuinely think most fans are pulling for.

This is over kids like Cal Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty, hell I haven’t even seen as many crying or Matt Gorski lately.

In fact, I got the impression most fans were ok with Cal getting the demotion call yesterday. He’s barely scraping .200, not hitting for a bunch of power, striking out a bunch, but let’s be really honest, so did Jack Suwinski. The team and fans alike seemed more than ok to continue sending him out there to figure things out. Travis Swaggerty got himself all of 9 at bats and an error before finding his way into a demotion.

I guess I just wonder what it is that makes us decide someone is worth the time and patience investment while someone else isn’t?

If it was where they were picked, I’d think there’d be more of an outcry when Swaggerty was optioned. Cal was a 2nd rounder so it’s not like he’s lacking pedigree.

I see people not ready to say Diego Castillo might need more AAA time, but he’s had 196 plate appearances and he’s hitting .192 with 7 homeruns. For comparison sake, Cal had 88 plate appearances and hit .193 with 2 homeruns.

I’m not asking why you feel the way you do as much as asking myself why I do. I’m torn on sending Diego back down, but was completely ready for Cal to head back and get more reps. I’m all about Bligh but didn’t even blink when Swaggerty was sent down.

I was done with VanMeter before he started almost to the same degree as I was with Yu Chang.

Is it as simple as if we’re going to watch prospects, we’d rather them be the Pirates prospects than someone else’s failed development project?

I guess, but that certainly doesn’t explain all of them. Can’t even use the excuse some of them have worn out their welcome can you. Like Hoy Park is just about 2nd or 3rd on just about everyone’s demote list, and he’s been nothing short of good since his call up. Forget that, all season in 49 plate appearances he’s hitting .238 with 2 homeruns. Easily better than several guys people want to keep in front of him.

At least for Park I can say people saw enough last year potentially, but it just makes me wonder how we all form these opinions.

More than anything it makes me wonder why for some 300 at bats is a small sample size but for others 30 is enough to DFA.

Any thoughts on this one?

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

6-27-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates had an opportunity to win every game this weekend in St. Pete, but the time for moral victories is just about over. Time to start turning those aww shucks these guys played their hearts out sentiments into W’s, and unfortunately it’s also time for some very tough looks at the roster.

I spent considerable time talking to the roster decisions that are headed our way last week, but now that some of them are on the doorstep, well, we’re going to at the very least see this club force some youngsters to push their way back on to this roster.

I’d prefer they just move on from some guys, and maybe they will in the end, but there is just no way to return even half of the players they have coming back without upturning the apple cart and pissing off half the fan base.

Typically I’d try to help calm folks, but I’ll be honest, I know myself well enough to expect I’ll get heated if some things I see coming actually happen. A quick for instance, if Josh VanMeter, universally stated as the first one in line to return, replaces Yu Chang, nobody is going to do much more than shrug. If he replaces Hoy Park, some people who’ve actually been paying attention will at least have questions. Replace Diego Castillo and we’ll see some meltdowns. Take it out farther, have his return prevent Marcano’s return and it’ll be a red alert.

That’s one player, effecting the paths of what, 3 or 4 others? Hell I didn’t even mention someone like Ji-hwan Bae who himself should potentially earn a call up.

All of this could be chalked up to good problem to have, if some of the anticipated returning players were, umm, anticipated.

Let’s dig in.

1. First, Do No Harm

I don’t think returning some healthy vets is a bad thing, but I’m also not of the belief that the list of who should come back is all that long.

More than anything though, there are some of these youngsters that this team simply can’t even consider toying with.

Oneil Cruz must stay up here now for instance. I can’t see a path to send Jack Suwinski down.

A real cynic will tell you even a guy like Jack has more to learn that AAA could help with. He does strikeout, and too much for that matter, but I’m not sure AAA helps solve that, and I also don’t see a team like this getting away with sending down a guy easily in the top 3 for ROY so far this season.

Returning vets have a place, but there is also a step too far here, and detrimental to the cause moves like swapping a guy like Marcano out so we can make sure Josh VanMeter gets more major league at bats, yeah, I’m just not seeing it. Marcano is young and has a real chance to be part of the young core here. Josh VanMeter at best is a bench piece or returns something insignificant. Risk vs Reward just doesn’t add up for some of this stuff in my mind.

Let’s say they return Yoshi to the lineup. I think we’re looking at middle of July if/when they choose to do that, then he has all of 2 or 3 weeks to show his trade value.

So, the very best case scenario with Yoshi is he mashes for 2 or 3 weeks, and some GM believes that 2 or 3 weeks, combined with his couple weeks last year causing them to maybe give away a AA pitcher with some upside.

The alternative, and more likely scenario in my mind is that he would look very much as he did, with a couple homeruns, they’d see no real buyers for his services and essentially have to just move on.

If this move costs playing time for someone who matters or even losing a player like Rodolfo Castrro as a 40-man casualty just to see what Yoshi can do, I’m sorry, that does harm. Not world is ending harm. Not fire the GM harm. Just mindless harm. Risk vs Cost analysis has got to factor in here, but don’t be shocked if we see a rash of “injuries” or “needed training” for prospects anyway.

Like I said, there just isn’t a move on the table here that isn’t going to set someone off.

Speaking of, here’s the first of what is sure to be more than most want to see.

The pitching move is to get a starter for tonight, and I’m not overly shocked about Cal Mitchell, but you’ll be hard pressed to find anyone who’s “happy” about this move. I and I’m quite sure most of you would rather watch Mitchell hit .193 than VanMeter hit .214. Especially while Yu Chang still remains.

Brace yourselves folks, this is gonna be hard to see and I damn near guarantee one of them will tick you off at some point.

2. Keep Taking the Series You Should

The Pirates open a series in Washington tonight and the Nationals might very well be the worst team in the league. Injury has certainly played a role, but at the end of the day, they’re a result of trying to keep one foot in the world of being competitive and the other in a retool experiment. In baseball, rarely will you survive long without firmly picking a lane.

Juan Soto is a generational player, and they’ll likely not get him inked. At his age he’s probably going to net the first 500 million dollar contact, and let’s be honest, we know the teams that are in that conversation. Someone could certainly pay a heavy prospect price right now though for a couple years of his services before signing him comes up.

He also has suffered this year having just about no protection in the lineup. Don’t let Juan beat you even if it means 3 or 4 walks a game and wait for the Nationals pitching to implode. It’s a recipe even the Pirates can cook to a 5 star level.

This is the state of the Pirates franchise right now. They aren’t great, they aren’t even close to “built”, but they are a step above the worst of the worst, and when teaching kids to win, you must make hay.

3 of 4 from Chicago was good. 2 of 3 from Washington would be too.

In fact, we and they should start to expect that’s what they should achieve. Even when you have no clue who’s pitching game 1 until an hour or so before first pitch.

That doesn’t mean you show up cocky and looking past a team, hell no, who are the Pirates at this point to look past anyone, but you should walk in thinking you could sweep them. You should get pissed if you don’t take 2 of 3. That’s where these teams are, and at some point kids need to see things come together because they’ll need confidence to take into Milwaukee not expecting a 4 game sweep in the other direction.

3. Perception Almost Always Changes When Reality Comes a Knockin’

Before this season the Pirates outfield was a total mess. Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel, and, well, nothing else really. Oh they brought in this Allen kid, sure some of you thought Travis Swaggerty would probably be ready. Oneil Cruz was gonna end up there anyhow right?

Just about 3 months into the season now, here we are wondering how the hell this team is going to fit all the outfielders they have. It’s hard to even find a place for Gamel to squeak back onto this roster once healthy right? Let alone Allen.

In fact we were so collectively far off that Swaggerty the universal first man up came up for all of 9 at bats and it’s hard to fathom him coming back anytime soon as we sit here today.

None of that factors in the 2021 MiLB player of the year Matt Fraizer who’s struggled this campaign or emerging former number 2 pick Matt Gorski who’s just crushing balls out at two different levels now. This has gone from a wasteland to a mix of players so deep that most fans barely acknowledged Canaan Smith-Njigba breaking his wrist and being lost for the season.

These are all names we knew were in the system. All guys we thought would get a shot at some point. Nobody that I read saw it shaking out this way though.

So when we look at areas of the system moving forward, maybe think back to how this outfield mix has started to take shape. Perhaps there are more in your area of focus than you think, maybe less too for that matter.

Some of these guys aren’t going to make it, that’s sad but true. Bligh Madris who just about nobody counted as an option pre Spring has come up here like a ball of fire. But it’s been a week, that doesn’t buy proclamations that Swaggerty is tradeable now any more than it portends that Jack Suwinski won’t go cold and force the team to ignore all the homers for a .188 batting average.

Major League Baseball is the hardest sport to reach the Bigs from draft to debut, and it’s equally hard to predict.

If anything, maybe take this as a cautionary tale about putting too much stock in those rankings.

4. What Could Jack Suwinski Be?

We talked a bit above about how many outfielders have emerged, but folks nobody is close to what Jack has done.

The first thing I’m going to talk about are the intangibles. This kid has a flare for the dramatic, a sense for the moment. If he’s the guy at the plate and has a chance to get something meaningful done, he instantly is a different hitter.

I have to start there because here’s a kid who has 190 plate appearances and 60 strikeouts. Without talking to that intangible thing, how am I going to sit here with those stats and tell you he takes consistently good at bats?

Well, he doesn’t. He takes very rookie at bats from time to time, but what sets Jack apart is how he learns, adapts and more than anything how he rises to the occasion.

Since his call up, Jack could be seen in the dugout after just about every at bat writing in his journal. He keeps track of 3 primary things. 1. Who he faced, 2. What they Threw, and 3. How he felt in the box against them.

Funny right? I mean the team is already taking down far more detailed notes about all this stuff, but this guy feels he needs to do this on his own. It’s his process and so far it’s working. Maybe not in batting average, not yet at least, but in finding a pitch and putting a good swing to it, well, he’s doing that much more often.

He’s never been a guy who hits for average, in fact he’s never had a minor league season in which he hit better than .269 so I’m not thinking this is a guy we can ever expect to hit .300, but productive, yeah, I think he’s showing that’s possible for sure.

The power potential, especially in the NL Central is really untapped. He has 12 so far, and much has been made of his ability to hit them over the Clemente Wall at home, but nobody seems to mention he’s going to get to play in Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Chicago quite a bit too. If his meticulous self learning helps him as much as he seems to think it does, we should see some pretty sad faces in opposing ballparks in the coming years.

The Pirates have potentially found something here, and it’s ok to talk about it now. In 54 games he’s worked his way to a 0.9 WAR, and over the course of the rest of the season reaching 2 or 2.5 isn’t out of the question. That my friends is not bad for a rookie.

Could he be starting along side Bryan for years to come, certainly. Could he ultimately get surpassed by a more complete player, well, not if Jack has anything to say about it.

5. Oneil Cruz Won’t Be a Casualty of Returning Vets

The Pirates played all sorts of games in manipulating the time of Oneil Cruz, but here’s the thing folks, you don’t do that unless you’re convinced a guy is worth it.

See all that bitching and pissing and moaning you all did every day he was down there, the team didn’t miss it. They heard, they just didn’t care, because when you have someone this freakishly gifted, and you’re that sure he’s going to be at least close to what he could be, well, you stick to your guns and block out the whining knowing they’ll be cheers 6 years from now.

Bottom line, you don’t go through all that just to turn around and send him back.

You also don’t return your former starting short stop Kevin Newman and pretend Cruz isn’t more important.

We can worry about this stuff and I’m sure regardless of what I write many of you will, but the team has no intension of doing anything less than playing Oneil Cruz just about every day and just about every game at short stop.

We should also talk a bit about how he’s been as a short stop. The arm is killer, but not quite as accurate as you’d like. The range is insane, that’s just undeniable. Now, it looks strange, he doesn’t approach balls the way normal short stops do because he can’t, and his technique needs work. He still double clutches before throwing, crow hops before throwing, and once he irons those things out, I really should say if he irons those things out, he won’t need to show off the big arm nearly as much.

Aside from Kevin Newman last year, he’s the best fielder we’ve seen there in a Pirates uniform since Erik Gonzalez was floating around creating reasons not to DFA him.

I know many including myself have said they see him as an outfielder eventually, but look what I just wrote up there about the outfield, where does he go? Maybe one day that’s how it plays out, maybe first base, who knows, but for right now, this season, just watch him play SS with fresh eyes and see what he tells you.

MLB Draft COMP Scores – 2022

6-26-22 – By Joe Boyd – @Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

I’m back again with the second rendition of MLB Draft COMPS scores.  I’m going to plagiarize Joe Boyd from 2021 so you get the background on how this thing works: 

“I wanted to utilize the data from Fangraphs, and try to make these draft prospects a bit more relatable.  My plan? Utilize ‘Sim Scores’ to make player comparisons.  Sim Scores are just a way of comparing a player to a bunch of other players via several inputs, and in my case those are their biographical measurements (height, weight, throwing hand, Right / Left / Switch hitter) and their tools from Fangraphs. Please note that, like baseball, baseball blogging is also somewhat of a copycat league.  Part of my inspiration came from Shaun Newkirk who did this type of project last season. And I’ve created Sim Scores in the data software tool, R, but it was not exactly visually appealing.  Instead, I am utilizing / improving upon a spreadsheet from HW Linwood at CheckSwings.com (now defunct).  I reached out to him/her, but no luck.  I’m writing this article for free, so HW, if you read this and want your cut, you can have 100% of my proceeds.  The original spreadsheet had Fangraphs top 400 prospects from the 2018 season, and only was available for hitters.  I have expanded the depth of prospects to 2017-2021 and I have developed a Pitcher COMPS spreadsheet as well.  And without burying the lede too deeply here, I wanted to provide these spreadsheets to you:

COMPS Hitters **

COMPS Pitchers **

Without getting too into the weeds here, a Z-Score will look at a featured draft player’s input (Height or Hit Tool, for example) and compare it to the pool of players (2800+ for both Hitters and Pitchers) and assign each member of the pool a number based on how far away from the featured player’s input.  The further away from the prospect, the less they are alike.  The Sim Score is simply a sum of all the Z-Scores, so when we are looking for a player most similar to the featured draft player, a lower score is better (think a 2.00-5.00 Sim Score).”  

In 2022, the Pirates will select fourth overall, so I wanted to highlight the six players that are currently in contention for the pick and look at their most similar “famous” prospect (allow me to use my discretion here!) and the nearest Pirates prospect (I may sneak some cherry picking in here too) as I believe the readers here will easily be able to make that type of connection.  And before we begin, have fun with this.  If you don’t agree… blame Longenhagen or HW!

My favorite part about this project is that I do not believe Longenhagen knows that I do this, so please don’t tell him.  Having his independent grades on these players, without influence, allows for genuine COMPS for these players.

Brooks Lee, Shortstop – Cal Poly

Notable COMP: Ronny Mauricio – NYM – 2022 (Sim Score: 4.29) – Not a bad COMP to start off with, as Mauricio is the current 47th best prospect in the sport.  Both Lee and Mauricio are switch-hitting shortstops with FV tools that include plus power and plus-plus arms.  Lee has been linked to the Pirates more often than note in my perusal of mocks due to the advanced bat at the college level. If he compares this well to a player ready to debut in 2023, you can assume he’ll fly through the system.  

Pirates COMP: Rodolfo Castro – 2020 (3.76) – I’m still a fan of Castro and love his versatility.  ZiPS sees him as a 1.2-WAR player as soon as 2023, so that’s some solid value from a potential bench/utility piece.  I would probably consider this a floor for someone like Lee, but that’s not a bad range for the selection: Bench Utility  – Top 50 prospect in baseball.

Cam Collier, 3B – Chipola College

Alright, here’s a guy that really intrigues me, and would be an interesting choice, but apparently there’s some smoke on this connection.  According to the Athletic, the Pirates/Collier connection is actually real, due to his performance at the Cape Cod League.  Keep in mind, he left high school as a sophomore to head to Chipola College to further his development, so he’s really young, and won’t turn 18 until November!

Notable COMP: Fernando Tatis, Jr. – SDP – 2017 (5.23) – Are you kidding me!? The Pirates can grab a Fernando Tatis at pick 4!? Well, probably not likely, and probably mostly to do with the age (Tatis was just 17 in 2017), but Collier does have loud tools.  There are other similarities here too, as Collier’s father is former Major Leaguer, Lou Collier.  With the potential of a 50-hit tool and serious power to go along with a 70-arm, Collier might be worth the risk here.  Long ways away from PNC Park, but if he can develop to be 85% of Tatis, Jr., he’s going to be a problem!

Pirates COMP: Maikol Escotto – 2020 (7.89) – This comp is from when Escotto was in the Yankees Farm, but similar tools, albeit a bit quieter, Escotto has yet to make that leap we were hoping for, and that could be the fate of a Collier, especially when you have such lofty projections at such a young age. 

Termarr Johnson,  2B – High School

Notable COMP: Rafael Devers – BOS – 2017 (7.80) – The heavy hitters for these comps are pretty impressive! Granted, a 7.80 SIM Score isn’t all that similar, but it’s still a lofty comparison.  Johnson is considered to have the best hit tool in this class (55-grade), so if all goes well, Johnson could be in the MVP-caliber range like Devers. 

Pirates COMP: Nick Gonzales – 2020 (7.89) – Gonzales was also a 2B carried by his bat.  He was a college bat, so you can already tell that Johnson is advanced for his age.  Gonzales has dropped from a 60-grade down to a 45-grade hit tool, so we’ll hope that Johnson heads in the other direction. 

Druw Jones,  CF – High School

Notable COMP: Bobby Witt, Jr. – 2020 (4.14) – I think we’re at the point where Jones (son of Andruw Jones, for those unaware) has gravitated to being near consensus #1 overall prospect.  Baltimore could do something similar to what Pittsburgh did last year and cut a deal with a college bat (like Brooks Lee), and you could technically see Jones fall.  But, I wouldn’t expect him to get to 1.04, but I wanted to cover my bases nonetheless.  Here we have a comp to Bobby Witt who went #2 overall in 2019 is a near 5-Tool player.  Both Jones and Witt only have a minor question mark on their hit tool (45-grade), everything else looks fantastic.  

Pirates COMP: Maikol Escotto – 2022 (5.74) – Another Escotto comp!  We’re looking at ‘comparable’ players here in that both have similar bats and arms.  But Jones is a much more well-rounded player and also happens to be 2 years younger.  So let’s not expect Escotto to grow to be a top prospect, and I also don’t think we can expect Jones to fall off because the speed and defense can carry him even if that bat doesn’t quite develop.

Elijah Green,  CF – High School

Notable COMP: Heliot Ramos – SFG – 2018 (7.27) – It’s fun to tie in our recent Talkin’ Trades pieces whenever possible!  I touched on Ramos as a part of the Bednar deal because he’s been on my radar for quite some time.  It’s not hard to see the comparison between Green and Ramos as they both just ooze potential. Ramos has lost a bit of shine on his prospect star, and could serve as a reminder of what can happen to young high schoolers who are in the spotlight for so long.  

Pirates COMP: Lonnie White, Jr. – 2022 (10.29) – I could’ve gone with Escotto AGAIN, but I figured I’d mix it up a bit.  When I see players align with the same prospects in the Pirates’ system, I start to wonder if they are of a similar profile that Pittsburgh looks for.  Now Green, son of former Steeler Eric Green, has plenty of swing/miss in his profile, but the dude has been compared to BO JACKSON.  He’s a freak that is fun to dream upon.  Can you envision Green, rocking his dad’s #86, mashing dingers in PNC Park?  I sure can. 

Kumar Rocker, SP – Tri-City Valley Cats

Notable COMP: Alek Manoah – TOR –  2020 (3.24) – This is the same comp from last year, so I’ll plagiarize once again, “I actually love this comp. Manoah tips the scales at 250+ so you get those big, intimidating vibes that Rocker also brings to the mound. Both are given an overall FV of 45+ out of the draft, and both sit mid-90s and touch 98. It took Manoah just about two years to make his Major League debut, and maybe Rocker could be on a similar track.” 

Pirates COMP: Carmen Mlodzinski – 2021 (5.11) –  Same comp as last year, as well.  I think it comes down to Mlodzinski’s size and fastball.  Still waiting to see Carmen take a step, and we expect Rocker to drop from #10 selection in 2021 to later in the draft in 2022, but would definitely be worth the look at #36. 

In Conclusion

So to conclude, I am certainly leaning towards either Lee or Collier at this juncture.  Lee looks like a guy that could fly through the system and be in Pittsburgh about the same time as Davis, so you have to love that timeline.  Collier just has so much youth and potential that you can just dream on him being a superstar.  He might not be ready when the competitive window opens, but, just imagine the reinforcements/extension of the window if he hits.  If the Pirates can develop a Tatis-Lite, it literally does not matter where he plays, sign me up for that.  I’ve discussed before that roster construction is my favorite part of sports, so aligning a tidal wave of talent to descend on the North Shore all at the same time is the ultimate goal, but if you can create multiple waves, that’s the golden ticket. 

As things progress or if Fangraphs updates their rankings/scouting, I can revisit this exercise.  Or if Pittsburgh chooses someone not on this list, we can look at those comps in detail, but this is just a fun opportunity to make some connections between players you have seen or know (former/current prospects) and the players in the draft that you may not.  So feel free to mess around and see which COMPS you like the best!

So What’s the Next Step Look Like?

6-23-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Oneil Cruz is here.

I’m pretty sure someone broke all that right?

OK, so now that he’s here, the major first wave of youth has made it’s way to Pittsburgh and while there will likely still be more debuts to look forward to, the initial lurch toward youth has been accomplished.

So where do we go from here?

Today, lets look at immediate decisions the club has to make and potentially who’s left that could get the call in 2022.

The Bubble Players

The easiest way to do this keeps beginning here in my mind. Before I talk about returning veterans from the IL or other guys who should/could get a shot in 2022, I feel like going through this list is foundational.

Yu Chang (0 Options) – People have called for his DFA from the moment the Pirates acquired him. And he did himself no favors striking out 90% of his first batch of at bats. 15 games, 41 plate appearances, it’s a tiny sample size, but it’s also painfully clear Derek Shelton isn’t all that interested in forcing that AB number up. I can’t paint a picture of how this season shakes out in which Yu is in it. DFA is the only way here.

Hoy Park (3 Options)Hold your hat, but Park has actually been good since his recall. Now, why is he still a bubble guy then? I’ll touch on it more below but it’s a numbers game and I won’t rule out he manages to convince the team to leave him where he is. It’s only been about a week though, so it’s really hard to say it’s enough to hold back on a move, but he’s not an automatic flush either.

Cal Mitchell (3 Options) He’s hitting ever so slightly over .200. His defense is an easy step below everyone else they have out there. Not saying he’s a bad player, or that he’ll never make it, but arm strength isn’t easily solvable. Cal is easily the emotional leader of this wave of prospects. Everyone’s friend, everyone’s sounding board. Always calm, collected and works hard. But at some point, he may have to be the odd man out. At least for now.

Diego Castillo (3 Options) Diego has been given opportunity. He made the team out of Spring, and he has played all 4 infield spots and two outfield positions. Hell he even has pitched, poorly. In 166 at bats, he has 5 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .193. I know his versatility is valuable, but at some point the Pirates are going to have to admit what he needs to work on can’t be done at the MLB level. He’s just not going to see the at bats required to really work on things up here.

Michael Perez (2 Options) He’ll pop one over the wall every so often, has 3 this season in 71 at bats. But man, it’s just not good. I suppose I could put Heineman on this list but if they find one somehow, Perez would be the guy, clearly. Look for Carter Bins to start pushing. He’s no big digs either at the plate, but he calls a good game according to scouts, but he’s also barely hitting over .200 in AAA. The threshold for better than Michael isn’t high.

Bligh Madris (3 Options) He’s done nothing wrong. That said, at 26 he’s just going to live on the bubble. Fair or not, his fault or not, 26 and playing well isn’t as sexy as 23 and playing well. That’s just baseball. And you all know I really like the kid.

Chris Stratton (0 Options) He’s struggled, but he’s also one of the very few in that bullpen who has experience. The Pirates will undoubtedly look to trade him at the deadline, but if he has his own team thinking he might not have a spot, trading him might not be easy. The spin rate stuff is fun, and people love to act like that’s the only reason the Pirates stick with him but really over his body of work here he’s been effective. The Pirates will give him as much time as they can to make sure they can’t recoup value before pulling the rip cord here.

Anthony Banda (0 Options) He’s a lefty. Wanna know why he keeps getting shots, there it is. A 5.89 ERA in 21 games amounting to 18,1 innings is simply not impressive.

Cam Vieaux (3 Options) He’s 28 years old, but also a lefty. That matters folks. He’s only pitched in two games but hasn’t allowed a run. He could be a fixture in this bullpen, but he could also be a victim of room.

Tyler Beede (0 Options) He’s been pretty good for a waiver pickup. Giving the team length in the pen, and he’s been fairly effective. He’s a bubble guy if only because, well, he was a waiver claim. If someone better is ready, he could easily be cut loose. But he’s not been a poor performer.

Returning Injured Players (Near Term)

Folks, before I do this, don’t think I’m listing guys that I think have to come back, this is more about making sure we remember they exist because one way or another, decisions are coming.

Yoshi Tsutsugo (3 Options) He’s been awful and he’s now rehabbing from his back injury. It’s my belief the Pirates should DFA Yoshi when he’s healthy, but if they simply feel they have to make sure he’s a bust, use one of his options and do it in AAA. Mason could probably use a seat on the bench or a DH usage would be ok too. Let’s not see this in MLB. That said, what I think they should do, isn’t the same as what I think they will do.

Josh VanMeter (0 Options) Josh was doing ok before the injury, but is he better than Park, Castillo, Marcano, man I can’t see it. Pirates might though.

Kevin Newman (3 Options) There is no doubt in my mind that Kevin will be back. The defense is an upgrade on the bench if nothing else, and Newman is another guy the team could look to trade. A trade simply won’t come along if he doesn’t play, and play MLB ball.

Tucupita Marcano (2 Options) He’s just done well, both as a lead off hitter and starting 2B. can’t see much of a route to him not returning.

Ben Gamel (N/A) He’s a vet, he’s a heart and hustle guy, and this team should want him back in the mix. Probably on the block but I like what he can provide a universally young team.

Zach Thompson (3 Options) No brainer. He’ll be back as soon as possible and the team reportedly believes they caught the issue before it became a big one. I mean you guys all saw the short term answer yesterday right?

Jake Marisnick (N/A) If Ben Gamel didn’t exist, I might pitch for Jake. I just think this is an element a team like this needs.

Greg Allen (0 Options) I honestly don’t know when he’s due back. Not on a rehab assignment yet, but he has something going for him, he can hit right handed. I’m not ready to wash my hands here yet, but finding room isn’t going to be easy.

Dillon Peters (0 Options) No brainer. When he’s healthy, they’ll find a spot.

Duane Underwood Jr (0 Options) I believe this will happen today, and he too is a no brainer.

Nick Mears (1 Options) The injured flamethrower is likely to find no openings, but next time there is an opportunity, he’s near the top of my list.

More Call Up Possibilities

We don’t have a complete picture until we’ve really taken this factor into account. It may even help us understand who could and should be on the block come trading time.

Carter Bins (Not on 40) I kinda explained this earlier when discussing Michael Perez. All he has to do is show he’s a better option than Michael, and as Perez lives near .100 for an average, I’ll go ahead and hold out hope.

Ji-hwan Bae (Not on 40) Arguably there is nobody more deserving. He’s versatile, talented, fast as lightning and a potential upgrade to any number of bubble guys.

Mason Martin (Not on 40) He was the second hottest prospect name not a month ago. Now he isn’t someone you could even consider. That’s how dramatic his ups and downs are. Still has to be here, look how thin first base is folks.

Cody Bolton (Not on 40) He’s 24, and had time robbed from him due to injury and 2020, but Bolton has looked solid. If he doesn’t get a chance this year, he’ll be in the mix come Spring.

Michael Burrows (Not on 40) His ceiling makes him the sexiest player on this list. This could very well be a 1 or 2 guy in a rotation and if he gets the call, he forced it.

Eric Stout (On 40) Lefty pitcher just had his contract purchased by the Pirates. He’s depth, he’s 29, but lefties just hit different.

Hunter Stratton (Not on 40) Injury, and trades will make room for lots of guys, Hunter is one who could probably have made the 40-man before the season.

Liover Peguero (On 40) He’s already been here, but he won’t come back unless the Pirates trade some guys or suffer a rash of injuries. In fact, I bet Bae is in line before he comes back. Not that he did anything wrong, just my opinion.

Travis Swaggerty (On 40) I didn’t understand his call up or how it was handled. Right now I can’t see how he’s anything short of the 6th or 7th option in the depth chart when everyone is healthy.

So How Does This Shake Out?

Anyone who tells you they know is lying.

All I can really do is look through the bubble guys and the returning guys and try to come out of it with as much depth as I can possibly steal.

If I’m the Pirates I prioritize a few returns.

Newman, Gamel, Underwood, Peters, Thompson and Marcano.

Now if I want 6 of those guys back, I have to pick 6 bubble guys to go right?

Let’s do it like this, in pairs.

Gamel for Mitchell, Peters for Beede, Stratton or Vieaux, Thompson for whomever they replace Eickhoff with, Marcano for Chang, Newman for Castillo, Underwood for Banda

Don’t like that, I’m open to suggestions.

One thing I will say here, I simply can’t make room for Yoshi or VanMeter. Allen is tough, Marisnick I just don’t see, and Mears likely has to wait.

There is still scrap on this roster to clean up, but not as much as there used to be. They are going to lose some good players, maybe before giving them real opportunity, but such is life when running an entire wave of rookies into the bigs.

Take these decisions as they come and allow yourself to update your list of Bubbles/Returns/Probable Reinforcements often as you go, because you’ll see quickly when doing that, sometimes it’s as simple as not having options, or needing to showcase someone. Roster construction is a skill not enough GMs have, and we’re about to get our first taste of how Cherington and crew handle tougher decisions than they’ve faced yet.

For instance, I take no joy in putting Castillo on this list, but I’m grateful I can legitimately say there are better options too.

I’m sure we’ll revisit this, but let’s start from here. Super interested in your takes.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – David Bednar

6-23-22 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno – With Bryan Reynolds’ trade value done and done, Joe and I turn our heads to the next guy. And guess what? The next guy doesn’t get any easier to talk about.

Joe Boyd – Justin, I’m writing this after watching Oneil Cruz’s 2022 debut, and… I don’t want to trade anybody! I’m ready to switch to trades where the Buccos are buyers! Too soon? Okay, fine. Yea, you’re right, the next one on our list is David Bednar, local hero and professional buzzsaw.

We have, on occasion, utilized our own estimates in lieu of ZiPS projections. Currently, ZiPS has Bednar at 0.9 WAR for both their 2023 and 2024 projections.  This would put his Surplus Value in the range of $21.81M, and Justin and I agree that the Pirates should not move Bednar for that value.  So if we were to align those 2023 and 2024 projections to fall more in line with his performance over the last two years, it would look more like this:

JV: I think we’re close enough to look at a trade that adds to this team. It’s not too early there, Joe. We’ve discussed Ben Chrington having a plan and a calendar for that plan. I think fans can see that plan now. The calendar is in focus. And while Cruz might be the reason for the excitement, he’s not the only kid we’ve seen this year that has allowed us to see the plan. We’ve seen Jack Suwinski, Diego Castillo, Liover Peguero, Cal Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos. We’ve seen possible role players such as Cam Vieaux and Hoy Park. Hayes, Chavis and Brubaker will be vets. So if the Bucs are to even consider moving Reynolds or Bednar, it has to fit this calendar. It has to have something in the package for the now and getting big time pieces for the now is not at all easy. 

Bednar looks the part of a dominant closer. His WHIP over the last 2 years is under 1.00. He strikes out 32-36% of the hitters he faces and only walks 6-8% of the hitters he faces. As Joe has shown, he’s good. 

When we took a look at a possible deal for Reynolds (see the link above) I gave some parameters as to what a deal would need to look like and have in it. These same rules apply to Bednar; it simply can not be a package full of A and CPX kids, Joe. 

Cherington needs- 

-An overpay.

-Surgical trade, meaning he needs to make a trade fit this contention window.

And he needs this for the same reasons mentioned in the Reynolds piece. There’s simply no reason to move Bednar unless it’s an offer he HAS to take. And for these same reasons we don’t think Bednar is going anywhere. But as Joe likes to say, that’s not why Gary and Craig have us on here. 

JB- I thought about a deal that would send him back to San Diego, but thought better of it. My deal, however, does send him back to the West Coast. 

The Giants package:

OF Heliot Ramos- ETA: 2022- (50 FV / $28M) – The Giants have a great farm from which to look for trades.  If you were the SFG GM and told me all 50FVs and up were off limits, I could still put together a package of players I really like in the 40-45+ FV range.  Imagine a deal that included Will Bednar, that’d be amazing! Anyway, in this deal we get a player that’s probably been on prospect hunters’ radar for quite some time.  

Ramos has been a top prospect in the system despite being moved up aggressively since he was drafted in 2017.  He has lost a bit of shine, but he still possesses 55 power from the right side of the dish.  Normally, teams covet lefty hitters, but the Pirates are in a prime position to tap a flooded market.  Longenhagen notes that it’s easy to call him a 5-Tool prospect, but that none of those tools jump out.  And that “Ramos feels like a slam dunk big leaguer down the road, but the path to stardom will require some unexpected leaps.”  If acquired, it’ll be up to the player dev team to re-establish Ramos as the star he was drafted to be. 

RP Seth Corry-ETA:2022 OR Matt Mikulski-ETA: 2025(40+ FV / $3M) – JV is really messing with my head with the surgical trade talk.  In a perfect world, I’d opt for Mikulski, he’s a big lefty that tops out at 100 mph and has a wicked change up.  He’s further away as he has quite a bit of development to do.  So if you’re looking for a slightly more polished product that’s closer to the majors then go for the other 40+ lefty in San Francisco.  

OF Jairo Pomares-ETA; 2023(45 FV / $8M) – That’s right, I’m bringing him back once again! I love this dude and think he’d be a great addition to the Pirates, if you’re good at math, you’ll notice I have already exceeded the threshold for Bednar’s value before Pomares.  This is one of those tactics where the deal is almost settled and the guy throws one more fee on the top and you just accept to get off the phone.  Pomares is my Bednar Fee.  He’s also got helium, he was a 40+ in previous installments, so jump on the bandwagon, it’s getting full!

JV – I love that offer and Cherington would be hard pressed to say no there, Joe. Add in the West is so competitive with the Padre’s, Dodgers and Giants all in the thick of it this will be a team to watch in any closer market, not just Bednar. 

And while the Giants system is deep enough that I could use them for this specific scenario and have an equally attractive package I have my eye on another team, The LA Dodgers.

As I mentioned earlier, the competition in the west is unbelievable at the moment. Will the defending champs be aggressive here? Craig Kimbrel isn’t who he used to be, I say they could be! 

The Dodgers package-

CF Andy Pages- ETA:2023-(50/FV $28M)

Despite the 2023 ETA I think it could be sooner as he skipped A ball and then proceeded to beat the living daylights out of A+ starters, mashing 31 HR in 2021. Per Fangraphs he has a high launch angle, 25% to be exact, so he needs to be able to keep it there or perhaps a little lower. But the interesting part is the K rate. You’d think a 25% launch angle and a hard swing would produce a lot of swings and misses and while Andy has his share he isn’t up there cutting down trees. His K rate is generally in the 21-25% range, that’ll play. And he doesn’t expand, walking at an 11-14% range between A+ and AA ball. 

Andy had a slow start to the 22 season but currently has his slash line at .250/.362/.473 good for an OPS of .835 and an ISO of .223 his bat plays.  He doesn’t fly grading out at a respectable FV of 50 in the speed department, hey don’t like him CF? Move him to a corner spot, the bat will play there. 

SP Maddux Bruns-ETA: 2026-(45+/FV 6M)

The Dodgers first round pick in 21 stands at 6’2” 210 LBs. The thing I think the Bucs will like here is his power CB(FV 70). Adding Bruns would give them one more for the bevy of power curve arms  they have but here’s the thing, all can hit the mid to high 90’s. Burns sits 93-97 and tops out at 98 and at 19 there’s always a chance to add to that. 

Bruns moved his over the head delivery to ¾ delivery, but per Fangraphs this has not affected his stuff and should help save that arm. All 3 of his offerings could be plus offerings. His FB and slider  grade out at an FV of 60. 

Here’s what Langenhagen had to say on Bruns’ stuff that made the biggest impression on me:

 “Bruns’ curveball already has much more power than in high school, when it was often in the low-70s, and some of the curves he threw during his first minor league spring outing (which you can see through the video link) were so good that they fooled the umpire. He has three plus or better pitches and just needs to show an improved ability to throw strikes while building an innings count befitting a starter. He’ll be a top 100 guy within the next year if he does.”

SP Landon Knack-ETA:2023- (45/FV $4)

Landon is a little older than I like for AA and I considered  19 year old Edgardo Henriguez(and maybe I’d prefer that) but Landon is closer and as stated they need to consider the calendar. Looking at the tool chest it’s easy to see why he has a solid grade.  The FV grades on his 4 offerings- FB/60 CB/55 CUT/55 CU/50 

So what holds him back you ask? His command scores out at a 50 FV. Age and injuries have weighed him down as well. To round it off he didn’t really blossom until his 5th year at Tennessee. 

Still though, the FB tops out at 99 and with a 4 pitch mix he’s an interesting prospect who should move quickly now that he’s healthy. 

JB – In my proposal, like JV’s, the other team had to overpay.  There’s no rush to move on from Bednar, and he’s been an absolute rockstar.  So if a team wants him, they’ll have to move the needle.  

JV, perhaps we’ve gotten the movable but extremely unlikely players out of the way now, and we can move towards the realistic trade pieces as the calendar turns to July? 

JV- In all the deals we’ve put together Joe and I haven’t really considered roster construction, instead we’ve stayed on highlighting the overall value. This is the first deal I heavily considered this Joe.  Not only is my package an overpay, it was specific in the main piece. Andy Pages should be ready this year or early 23 and can slide right into CF. If, and it’s a big if, Cherington is to consider moving these guys nabbing Reynolds immediate replacement with a possible power hitting CF with control of the zone is pretty darn attractive. And Cherington has to take this approach if he’s to move these guys. We are no longer in the “stock the MiLB” portion of the rebuild, we’re in the “finishing touches” portion of the rebuild. Soon to be in the “add” portion!

Moving Reynolds or Bednar can’t slow that. That said, if it isn’t nailed down? Well, yeah, move those guys.  So yes, Joe let’s get to the more realistic trade pieces. Next week, Ben Gamel.

Top 15 Prospect Update

6-22-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

The next few postings could be bonkers as there are a LOT of promotions coming. No reason for me to blather on, so let’s get to it!

1-Oneil Cruz

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.200/.261/.250.511.050.237388.7%13%
MLB
Season.232/.336/.422.758.190.33810212.1%22.7%

2-Henry Davis

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.188/.167/.176.343.059.161-85.6%33.3%
AA.107/.286/.250.536.143.267638.6%20%
A+.341/.450/.5851.035.244.4621798%18%

3-Roansy Contreras

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%k%
week4.16.237.972.0813.6%9.1%
MLB32.13.063.873.841.308.6%25.2%
AAA14.22.454.54 1.1616.7%33.3%

4-Liover Peguero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
MLB.333/.500/.333.838.000.39515525%50%
Season.292/.315/.469.784.177.3421133%22.9%

5-Quinn Priester-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AA30.002.433.950.330%30%
A+2.216.887.522.652.636.7%20%
A30.003.774.7200%10%

6-Nick Gonzales-NO STATS THIS WEEK-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
week
season.247/.366/..377.742.130.34111213.4%32.8%

7-Endy Rodriguez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.313/.476/.6351.101.313.48419519%28.6%
season.251/.338/.436.774.185.3501109.5%26.6%

8-Matt Fraizer

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.368/.455/.474.928.105.41816413.6%27.3%
Season.220/.273/.356.629.137.281735.5%27.3%

9-Jared Jones

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week55.404.771.209.5%33.3%
season52.25.135.024.141.4610.7%29.6%

10-Bubba Chandler 

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
SEASON50.002.561.2014.3%42.9%
BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
SEASON.429/.556/1.1431.6987.14.69129122.2%22.2%

11-Ji-hwan Bae

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
week.304/.360/.478.838.174.3691233.8%11.5%
season.304/.373/.478.851.174.3751279.9%17%

12-Michael Burrows

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week
AAA36.000.801.361.338.9533.3%
AA50.22.132.873.981.039.4%32.5%

13-Travis Swaggerty

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week(AAA).250/.308/.458.766.208.3331007.7%26.9%
MLB.111/.111/.111.222.000.099-420%44.4%
AAA.276/.354/.442.797.167.35511410.8%27.8%

14-Miguel Yajure

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week6.21.352.871.057.4%18.5%
AAA11.13.184.536.941.4114%22%
MLB10.111.325.896.672.1311.3%7.5%

15-Anthony Solometo

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPPBB%K%
Week29.003.472.009.1%27.3%
Season132.082.864.0601.089.3%24.1%

MY FIVE

16-Kyle Nicolas-NO STATS THIS WEEK-

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week
season40.23.984.053.911.259.4%31.6%

17-Brennan Malone

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
WEEK
A213.5017.977.802.507.7%23.1%
CPX33.002.703.651.677.7%30.8%

18-Dariel Lopez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.333/.391/.381.772.048.3621184.3%34.8%
season.238/.291/.400.691.162.312866%31.5%

19- Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.167/.286/.167.452.000.2373914.3%28.6%
season.224/338/.324.662.100.3178910%35.8%

20-Connor Scott

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.200/.200/.267.467.067.205220%20%
season.272/.328/.389.717.117.3211067.2%21.7%

A Few quick thoughts-

Congrats!

A delayed congrats to Cam Vieaux and Liover Peguero. Both made their MLB debuts this past week. Liover has since been sent back to AA so this was just a cup of coffee, but I wonder if Cam can stick. Congrats boys!

At long last our local sports nightmare is over! Oneil Cruz has been called up.

Joining him on the plane was Bligh Madris. Congrats Bligh!

Coldfront-

Hudson Head continues his slide and it’s sad to see. At this point, I have to wonder if he will be joining Escotto in a demotion.

Part of the return for Stallings, Connor had a great kick off and first quarter of the year but has since cooled off dramatically.

Hot, hot hot-

What a difference a week makes for Miguel Yajure, huh? I’ve seen a lot jump off this wagon but I continue to have hopes for all four of his pitches. I think we’ll see Yajure in Pittsburgh at one point this season.

Matt Fraizer-Matt’s back up this week and seems to be on a seesaw of good week up, bad week down. Hopefully he can settle in and find the consistency he had last season that put him on the radar.

Quinn Priester- Nice to see him back and nice to see him off to a good start!

Endy had a nice week and it was about this time last year he really clicked and picked up steam. What he’s done this year while learning what seems like every spot out there is impressive in and of itself.

Replacement parts-

Brennan Malone is officially in my updates and Ecotto is out. I won’t get into too much with Malone as he experienced some tightness between outings. Not unusual considering, but let’s hope he back out there early in the week.

I have chosen Dariel Lopez to replace Mason Martin. Lopez has responded with a solid week. I am pretty sure these are unrelated though.

Last but not least-

Have a week Bubba! The 2-way player made his season debut this week both on the mound and at the dish. Chandler wasted no time showing why he was so highly touted at both. Hitting for power and striking out 42.9% of the hitters he faced. It’s only one week, we all get that but it’s likely a week Bubba Chandler will remember for a long long time.

*Editor’s Note: Nick Gonzales was added to the 60-day IL. His heel injury that the team hoped he was working through, is being stubborn.