6-19-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s late June, and bluntly, the Pirates have already called up more players than I thought they would at this point. I mean, everyone they’ve called up so far was on my list of possible promotions, but not already.

The good news there is, we’ve actually gotten eyes on a bunch of guys we probably didn’t think we would yet.

So I think we’ll take a look, position by position and see if we can’t come up with the best 26 man roster, specifically to win more now, they could put together. In other words, I may not pick the best prospect, or long term answer, because that player my not really be best for this year.

These are all based on health too. For instance, when we hit catching, Roberto Perez obviously was, is and will be the best they have to offer, and yet, he gone.

Starting Pitcher (5)

Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Zach Thompson, Jose Quintana, Roansy Contreras
That’s right. Right now, it feels like that’s the best they got. I could make an argument that Mike Burrows is going to work his way into this mix, but let’s give him some time shall we? I could also make an argument for Cody Bolton, but hear me out, he hasn’t pitched, period, since 2019, and as good as he looks, he simply is going to run out of innings before the season ends. I think when I sit down to look at something like this in 2023, he’s a guy I factor in, but this year, I just let him focus on being healthy.

Point is right now those five are the best choices, and they happen to be who’s here, so hard to argue with the club right now.

Relievers (8)

David Bednar, Wil Crowe, Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, Yerry De Los Santos, Cam Vieaux, Chase De Jong, Arron Fletcher

Now, this isn’t their current set up, and I’m jumping ahead to getting down to a 13 man pitching staff. I’ve swapped Fletcher for Banda. Not great, but injury does play a role here.

Soon this will be augmented by Nick Mears, Duane Underwood (COVID IL), Dillon Peters, and I think at some point Hunter Stratton. They should replace Fletcher, Vieaux and probably Stratton if we’re purely talking about who’s best as opposed to any other factor at play like trying to trade a guy, pay check, you know, all the BS.

This is thin. They are too short on starting options to really mess with many more of them being relievers at the moment, and set backs to guys like Cederlind have made it even worse.

Lots of sentiment out there that bullpens just come together out of scraps, but for poor teams (or teams who act poor depending on how you feel) need to put extra effort here to make up for deficiencies elsewhere.

Catcher (2)

Tyler Heineman, Carter Bins

Neither are good. Heineman can handle the defensive side well enough, as long as you don’t needs guys thrown out on the base paths. Bins is really not impressive, but I’d rather see him audition up here than watch Perez for another minute, plus get me another right handed bat up here and see if this kid can be a backup at least.

The Pirates didn’t make this position better this offseason, and let’s be real clear. The Pirates don’t have Zach Thompson or fringe candidate to help this year Kyle Nicolas if they didn’t move Stallings to Miami.

I said it then and I’ll say it again, the return was really solid for Stallings and he hasn’t exactly been great in Miami either, but this organization simply doesn’t have an exciting catcher before Davis, and yes he’ll be a fine backstop.

One more thing I’ll touch on, Blake Sabol. Guys and gals, listen, he’s just not a catcher. He can do it in a pinch, it’s a nice skill to have in your pocket, but at the MLB level, I’m sorry he isn’t going to play there. I’ve heard this now from 5 scouts and I won’t even mention the players who see it too. Seems like a great guy, hits well enough that he’ll likely find a way to the bigs in some capacity at some point, but not as a catcher. Just get that out your head. Also, don’t crap on his age, yes he’s 24, but he was drafted in 2019, it’s not his fault that he couldn’t really play until 2021. There’s an entire group of players in the same boat and I expect we’ll see the average age of MLB rookies have an out of character jump that reverts to what it’s always been soon.

First Base (2)

Michael Chavis, Mason Martin

I’d do this right now. And yes, Mason is struggling again. This is about right now, and right now those two give you the best chance to win.

I’d like to see the club explore more with Bligh Madris at first, it’s what he played in college, he too has been hurt by the COVID time off, and if they feel he can play well enough, he might just earn himself a spot due to his OF ability too.

Yoshi was a mistake, and Vogelbach just isn’t a fielder.

Long term, I don’t think I’ve listed the Pirates answer. I want to believe in Martin, but at 22, I just haven’t seen enough consistency. I think he’s always going to be streaky to a degree, and probably always struggle a bit with the strikeout. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a good player, just means those steaks need to become less of a deep bottoming out. He’s a living embodiment of his ceiling and floor. During a season he’ll show you both.

Third Base (1)

Ke’Bryan Hayes. Done.

OK, you need someone else for when he takes a break. Michael Chavis can play there, looks ok. Diego Castillo is an option. There are others too, even Oneil Cruz is a guy who can and has shown an ability to field it there.

Not worth wasting much energy on this spot.

Short Stop (2)

Oneil Cruz, Diego Castillo

Cruz is going to get a shot there, and his bat makes him the best option. Castillo aside from that one inning has been at least competent there.

When he comes off the IL, Kevin Newman absolutely has a home. The team needs that sure handed glove either at SS or 2B, but they need it.

As I sit here today, I honestly believe Cruz will make some spectacular plays at short, but I also believe he’ll start to show why his status as a short stop is tenuous at best.

I predicted the team would move on from Newman after 2022, one way or another, I’m about 50% less confident in that statement now. Absence makes the heart grow fonder perhaps, but he and Hayes had the left side of that defense on lock down, and now I hold my breath.

Liover Peguero who’s here now could certainly make his way into this position, but he has some work to do on his throwing technique. Yes, I believe that’s all it is. He doesn’t have a consistent arm slot when making throws and that tends to create inconsistent results. To me, nothing that can’t be cleaned up. Why is that different for Cruz? Well, maybe it isn’t, this is all based on my opinion. To me Cruz at least so far doesn’t seem to sense how much time he has to make a play because of that cannon of an arm. I think he will always be able to play it I just don’t see him having much more growth to do. For instance, it’s impossible to believe he’s gotten this far without a coach mentioning that double clutching hurts their double play success rate, or hey kid, set yourself and throw, you have time. It either clicks or doesn’t.

Second Base (1)

Tucapita Marcano

First of all, he’s on COVID IL, so I’m breaking a rule here. Backed by Diego Castillo, man I just like what we’ve seen from Marcano. He’s done well in the leadoff spot too, which this team desperately needs in order to properly use Hayes. Hayes to his credit has filled the leadoff role, but it sure would be nice if he was in a run producing spot and Tuc makes that possible.

Being 100% blunt with you, I’m far more impressed with Marcano than I thought I’d be. I like his energy and he’s been solid in the field too.

Kevin Newman could factor in as a safety net here too. Let’s be honest, once Cruz is here there won’t be a bunch of at bats for him if the Pirates do this right.

Outfield (3)

Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell

I know they just sent Swaggs down, but again, this is right now. In a couple weeks, Gamel is the best bet and I’d consider having him replace Mitchell.

I could make an argument that at 24 Matt Gorski deserves a shot. I could and have argued that at 26 let’s get Bligh Madris up here and give him a shot. But if I’m honest, I think the best mix has been mentioned. I wish someone was right handed, but we have to deal with what we have.

Utility (1)

Diego Castillo

Right now, his versatility and being right handed simply make him the best bet. I could hear Ji-hwan Bae, and honestly you might be right, but the make up of this roster, I simply can’t see eliminating another right handed bat for a lefty.

I also think Kevin Newman is going to take this spot and unless Castillo 100% proves he’s better than Marcano, he’ll be the victim.

Designated Hitter (1)

Daniel Vogelbach

Now, I’m only saying one, but I’d prefer this be a rotating spot. Use it for rest, use it for hot and cold streaks, right now, it’s a locked in spot for a guy who can’t do anything else.

This team has no power, so I’m not cutting one of the only guys who hits homeruns, even if he can’t run. Call up Mason Martin and I’d happily have the conversation. Maybe this is how you work Bae in. Not that he’s the DH, but his versatility could help make it work better as a rotating role. Safest bet right now is probably Vogelthiccccck.

So Now What?

I mean, injury can’t be blamed the way it has in the past. They’ve suffered some unfortunate losses but c’mon, the starting rotation has remained healthy, Canaan Smith-Njigba wasn’t here long enough for any of us to really know what we’ve missed and most of you were openly happy when Newman went on the IL.

This exercise is really about finding the best 26, and more specifically, the best current 26.

We constantly hear about who should be here and who shouldn’t, but really look at the options and think it through.

The toughest one for me is Bae. I think he’d do well up here, and I think he could help quite a bit, but this club is already too left handed, and that gives me pause, at least right now.

Add in Mason Martin and Oneil Cruz and it becomes super ridiculous.

Bottom line, this isn’t going to turn into a winner in 2022, but a better, more well constructed roster is available.

6-15-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Getting the kids up to the major league level is arguably the most exciting and painful part of any rebuild, both at the same time. A rebuilding team needs to see the kids play, but playing a ton of kids is also rarely going to lead to good things for the overall club.

Individuals will of course have great games, terrible games, innings where everything they’ve done well falls apart, stretches where playing baseball seems like a foreign concept to them and ultimately, losing.

How do teams take on this process? And I mean all teams that do this, not just the teams that don’t spend, I mean every team that goes through the process of remaking their roster.

First, most of them lose. Prospects are largely about two things, their perceived ceiling, and their perceived floor. One thing most people don’t seem to grasp, and I mean this just as much for people covering baseball as those who just watch it, is that ceiling and more specifically, when teams expect it to be reached. It’s different for every prospect of course, just like every function in the game, but by in large, nobody is getting the promotion to MLB ready to be the best version of themselves.

High Payroll Rebuild

Now, if you’re a team that spends and simply wanted to wipe the slate clean and restock, this is easier. Instead of trading everyone, gathering up prospects and waiting for a group of them to come up to MLB before putting seasoned players around them, they like to trade everyone, pick up prospects, maybe have a really high pick for a season and then load back up via free agency or trades of some of the prospects they just got. Some young guys will be injected, but you never really have to deal with the ceiling thing too much because in isolation you can slow walk one or two guys. In other words, you let them slowly acclimate to the league and on top of that, you’ve likely put enough veterans in place to negate the need to force kids into action.

There aren’t many that can really pull off this method and it takes a perfect storm to be executed. You have to have a team loaded with vets, underperforming to the degree you know it just isn’t happening, relatively reasonable contracts and enough track record to actually return something worth caring about.

If anything really forces this, it tends to be aging out.

The Cubs could do this next season if they chose to, but it doesn’t smell like that’s what they’re going to do. If they did plan on that, they’d extend Wilson Contreras even at his age because there simply aren’t a lot of high quality catchers on the market. Even though I don’t see them going full on into that direction, they’ll add a bit here and there.

Mid Payroll Rebuild

This is the dream some Pirates fans have, but it’s probably higher than they’ve really ever achieved. This is a team like Houston. I know, you’re going to look at their payroll and tell me they belong in the first category, but hear me out.

These teams stink out loud for a stretch. They sell off everything and the biggest problem typically is that they didn’t have enough talent to really net the kind of return needed to jump start the system enough. That means the draft becomes the catalyst. The draft takes time, and your choices at this point are limited, you either add free agents knowing that almost all of them aren’t going to be there to help you when the kids you’re looking to arrive, or you don’t, and keep that draft slot toward the top for a while.

As you discover surprise kids, ok, lock ’em up on occasion, but the plan continues to be deal with the losing, remake the system and go.

This method then has a fork in the road. When you have a nice crop right on the doorstep, you can either go add heavy in the free agent market to give all these kids measuring sticks or bring them up in a flood, suffer with the growing pains. Either way it’s typically the last year of real pain. Some of the kids step up and become regulars, and the next year you can target deficiencies.

Obviously there are variations here, but this is the most typical.

Houston is a large market, could obviously have taken approach one, but it’s hard to argue with the foundational work they did to create a system that continues to provide. To their credit, they didn’t panic when they lost parts and pieces of the team that got it done.

Yes I remember the cheating, but even if they hadn’t won the World Series, this method is accurate.

Low Payroll Rebuild

Ahh, your Buccos fit in well here, even if they shouldn’t. I’m of the belief that this club could and should live around 100-120 million in perpetuity, but I’m not going to sit here and rail on that knowing that’s not likely with this owner.

The Royals, Orioles, and yes Rays all do this stuff too to a degree and I’ll try to expound on that a bit more as we go.

First, of course as you all have watched, they trade everything with any value that isn’t under team control long enough to be here for the rebuilt system to provide.

Some teams entering something like this might do what Atlanta did and make sure they have an anchor to help guide the kids. Atlanta for instance held onto Freddie Freeman as they waded through the process waiting for their picks and international signings to have impact.

I digress though, because much like the Cubs, Atlanta chose that path, it wasn’t dictated by their market size.

At some point, this typically leads to what you’re watching right now, a mass youth movement. Flooding MLB with kids and hoping someone sticks. In the Pirates case, most of this wave isn’t the exciting or expected to be exciting prospects. Obviously Roansy and Cruz are, but by in large, you’re hoping if you call up 12-15, you maybe find 2 or 3 who make a case for being a starter, and 2 or 3 who make a case for bench roles. Add them into whomever you’ve kept around (Hayes, Reynolds, Bednar) and hope you start to see something form.

Now if none of them stick, you’ve likely got some problems if you don’t have the money to make up for it quickly. If some of them do, you’re probably ready to start targeted addition.

That’s ideal of course, and in this market with this owner that’s no guarantee.

For instance, let’s play out a scenario. At the end of 2022 you have the following. An outfield with Reynolds and 1 or 2 rookies you at least think could start the 2023 season on the roster. An infield with Hayes and guys you feel you could start 2023 with everywhere else. That could be Cruz, Marcano and Chavis, which honestly isn’t the long term vision I’m quite sure, but that leaves room for the next wave to push with Peguero, Gonzales, Bae and others. You’d also have to look at Catcher and realize nothing is there. They’ll have no choice but to sign one because Davis alone isn’t enough to consider a spot filled for 2023. The pitching staff, well, the bullpen is always going to a degree be built as you go and the rotation, you hope to have 3 you believe in with 3 more you’d like to think could find something minimally.

That’s a lot to ask. Here’s why. Those pesky ceilings again. See Cruz could come up this week and quite literally jump right in as the team’s very best offensive threat and he still wouldn’t be anywhere near the player this franchise thinks he can be. That doesn’t come quick for most kids. Even Bryan Reynolds who had a killer 2019 rookie season took a big jump in 2021, and after this year I wouldn’t be shocked to see him take another modest step forward. Point is, even at this stage we haven’t seen the ceiling on Reynolds.

So when a kid like Roansy comes up here and looks great from the jump, realize he isn’t as fine tuned as he likely will be. He’ll be a better pitcher in 2024 should he remain healthy and nothing silly happens with the yips or something. Doesn’t mean he’s dog crap until that point, just means guys don’t come up often as finished products.

I’m cherry picking good players right? OK, how about you take a guy like Diego Castillo. He made the team out of Spring, has shown some flashes of really having something there. Taken some good at bats, played some good defense and recently the wheels have just fallen off. So what have the Pirates learned? Have they learned he’s a failure? Have they learned he’s an answer? No to both. They’ve learned that the stage doesn’t make him shrink, they’ve also learned that his weaknesses are exploitable and the league taught them that. They’ve learned he’s versatile. They’ve learned that while he’s probably too advanced for much more AAA, he’s also got enough room on his ceiling that more effort could be worthwhile. Small lessons come along too. Like yesterday afternoon they learned if he makes a mistake in the field he has a really hard time letting it go and refocusing.

All of this learning and waiting and training and experimenting leads to losses. Lots of them. They can also lead to some magic moments where all the kids feed off each other and their skills just take over. It’s almost always short lived when it happens, but kids are volatile and if you see one thing this season, this will be it. Some days you’re going to watch them all doing their part and looking like they are forming a team (see LA series), and sometimes you’re going to see them all seemingly stand around waiting for Reynolds and Hayes to get this damn team a win (current road trip).

Essentially this method is simply explained. You can’t afford 20 pounds of gold, but you can afford a 10 acre gold mine. Maybe 20 pounds is in there, maybe it isn’t, but you’ll never know until you dig. If at the end of the day you only get 5 and the mine cost more, you failed. If you wind up getting 25, you’ve won. Reality dictates most of the time you go overbudget digging and over time while only netting 15-20.

That’s why I always remind that this will need augmented, and that’s when Nutting comes in. I wish I had more faith in him to deliver, and historically I suppose we can say to a degree he will, but certainly can’t say enough.

So They Just Accept Losing!

Well, yes.

They accept the probability at least. The theory is kinda simple. I have 10-20 guys I believe could make it to MLB this season. I want to see those 10-20. If I go buy 5 or 6 guys to make the MLB club more competitive or watchable I might only see 7-12 of those guys.

Essentially you’re saying, pre-season mind you, I value seeing these kids start to make their way more than letting fans ooh and ahh at a guy who I’m gonna turn around and trade. Real impact free agents, ignoring Bob Nutting’s willingness altogether, tend to not sign one year deals, so you’d need to be prepared to grab a guy for 3-4 years. Pitching makes sense here because there is hardly an area you need to be confident in more. I’ll tell you right now, Brubaker, Keller, Quintana, and Thompson have all pitched well enough that if you had another like say Rodon, Roansy is probably waiting for an injury or, they’ve moved on from Keller and you don’t see him add this 2-seamer here and evolve a bit.

That’s the long and short of it. A cheap owner makes this method sellable for a GM, but it’s not the reason they don’t add, that comes from wanting to see kids.

Too many kids to assume they’re going to gel and look like big progress has been made.

How would you do it galaxy brain?

Well, in this market, a hybrid.

I like most of the work the system has undergone and I like the crop of youngsters we’re dealing with this year, but I’d have secured my positional depth a bit more.

None of this is new by the way, it’ll be the same stuff I called for pre-season.

• I’d have gotten another qualified backup catcher knowing Roberto Perez was injury prone and knowing I have no realistic prospect depth. Especially given how important the team feels that position is to the pitching development
• A bonafide corner outfielder which I know sounds silly given all the youngsters being implemented, but you need 4 in that position group, one of them should be a real measuring stick. Gamel is a good player, but he’s not going to hold back a kid you want to see. Even an Adam Duvall type would have provided resistance. Having wide open landing strips doesn’t create the kind of pressure to improve you need. I shouldn’t have minor league players writing me asking how in the hell they aren’t better than whomever is here, that much should be clear.
• 2 real, tested veteran starters. Not 1 trying to rebuild his career. Bryse Wilson looked like crap in Spring and came in out of shape, there should have been no circumstance under which he was expected to start out of Spring. Not to mention aside from Roansy, there wasn’t much. Cody Bolton is there, but he hasn’t really pitched in 2 years, it might be foolish to bring him up knowing he can’t give more than maybe 100 innings this year. Burrows is good, but he’s just now reaching AAA and while I can absolutely see him getting a shot this year, it’d really be better if he didn’t.
• A second baseman. Moved out an all star and nobody was ready. I’d like to give them a pass here, but they put too many eggs in the Cole Tucker might figure it out train and the Castillo looks ready boat. Josh VanMeter doesn’t count as an experienced signing as he’s a prospect that has failed to launch too.
• First baseman and I’ll expand on this below

Add in all those pieces and who knows, maybe you still end up here with all kids rushing the gates, but they’ll all feel like they ran a race to get here instead of simply waiting for desperation to necessitate the call.

Kids should come here hungry. Ready to contribute to what’s already being done. They should look to their left and right and see an example of how to handle an off day and still be prepared. They should see how to observe a pitcher as the game goes along just in case they’re asked to pinch hit.

They shouldn’t come up here feeling it was expected and that’s why you artificially block them, even if it’s not going to add up to much more winning.

5 million dollars for what amounts to a rookie first baseman with power potential, who also by the way can’t field the position, is not a valuable add. He’s too old to be part of this, and contractually he just never mattered. I can realistically look at 1st base and say, Martin was at least not a guy that needs to be forced into action, so this would be a perfect spot to add a real veteran player. 2 or 3 years for a first baseman. Doesn’t have to be big name, just someone who at least has proven they’re above league average and then Martin has something to aspire to. Right now, you’re just asking him to be better than Michael Chavis or said “rookie” Yoshi. That doesn’t block Martin, it just makes it reasonable that until he does X and Y, this dude we brought in is better. Have to have that in my mind.

My final thing for all this rebuild jazz, I’d have hired a coach who’s done this before. You know you’re going to have a bunch of kids at some point no matter how you attack this thing, so make sure the coach isn’t learning with them. Now, maybe they tried to find someone less green and were told to f off. I mean who wants to take a gig knowing 3 years of losing is in front of them if they think they have other opportunities out there? Regardless, they now have enough here and coming quick to start thinking about making a change. I don’t think they will, if only because of what I just mentioned. You aren’t going to ask a guy to come here and suck for 3 years then when you finally provide tools tell him he’s out and someone else get’s to go ahead and dock the boat.

That said, the emotionless part of me says if you want this to work, you better decide now if you have the right guys pushing buttons and making out lineup cards in place. When you are shooting for a limited time opening you best not waste a year finding out 4 years later this guy has no feel for in game decisions.

Conclusion

There’s nothing unforeseen happening this year. We expected a young team to get younger, we saw they didn’t sign anyone of note so we knew it would be sooner than later, and we knew that all these kids weren’t going to be enough.

I still maintain that by August/September you’ll like the overall look of this squad, at least more than you did in April, but there is still work to do, and unfortunately, some of that work is going to come when this team looks like they have no business on the field with real contenders.