6-13-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Rough series in Atlanta, and lets be honest, it was always going to be. Atlanta has caught fire, and gotten healthy. Even given that reality, the Pirates were in many of those games which on the record sheet looks exactly the same as last season when the Braves boat raced the Pirates and set a homerun record against them.

Ugly moments like that, yup, gonna happen. There will be nice moments too, and while those tend to be easier to forget when the overall picture is gross, I still tend to enjoy them, as I’m sure most of you do.

1. Trades are Going to at Least be Tried

I word it that way because folks, some of what they got, well, it just isn’t going to be wanted.

One of the funniest things for me personally is when I discuss things like whom should the Pirates move to return injured vets to the roster. The go to answer I get from most is “TRADE HIM”, and man, all I can say is, sure, but guess what has to happen first? They have to come back up most likely, and then they, maybe, have a chance to move them.

Some guys, I just don’t see so much as an opportunity. That said, lets go ahead and list off who the team is likely going to put on the block.

Cherington trades guys, and always will, but it’s not just whoever, especially as the team enters a new stage in this effort.

Chris Stratton – I was shocked he wasn’t moved in the off season, and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t get moved at the deadline. The return isn’t going to be great, because honestly, Stratton isn’t great. He has moments, and if Cherington can find someone who really values the hell out of spin rate and peripheral analytics, maybe he gets something of value. I’ll say this, he’s not the answer to Bednar’s back end partner. Oh, and he has no more arbitration.

Ben Gamel – Again, last year of team control. I personally think there is more value in keeping a guy like this around, but this is about who will likely be on the block, not about who I want or don’t want them to trade. Now, I don’t think he returns anything exciting, and based on where they are it can’t be a Hoy Park or Diego Castillo type, they either need a true lottery ticket, Low A with a ton of time left, or MLB ready piece like a backup catcher or reliever.

Yoshi Tstutsugo – First, this can only happen if he comes back from the IL. If this decision were mine, he never would. If he does however, I believe it will be for the express purpose of trying to move him. Now, by the time he comes back, and he does have a legitimate back issue by the way, I simply don’t think there’s time for him to show enough to build a market. Even if I thought he was capable, which I don’t.

Duane Underwood Jr. – I know Pirates fans generally don’t care for him but I’ll just say this, he’s better than his numbers. He has 3 years of arbitration in front of him and relief pitching is at a premium at the deadline. Normally when a guy has this much control left I wouldn’t suggest he should/would be on the block, but this team knows how much of his arm they’ve used up. They also have a bunch of guys who could figure into this bullpen that aren’t here yet. I think they can deal from strength here, and he’s easily worth a decent returned prospect, but nothing close to MLB.

Kevin Newman – I said before this season that one way or another, I see this being Newman’s last year as a Pirate. Well, this is one way. First, he needs to get healthy and much like Yoshi, there isn’t time for some grand turnaround, but if you move Newman to someone that wants him, chances are they want a glove, which he still has. I could argue the Pirates themselves need it too, but his days as a starter ended when he went on the IL fair or not. Ton of control here, just don’t see this as a needle mover type transaction. The other alternative might very well be non-tendering him after the season, so might as well move him.

Jose Quintana – Now, Q is the lone vet in this rotation and despite his start to the season, water tends to find it’s level. I expect him to continue to pitch well some starts and get knocked around in others, but there is always value in pitching, especially left handed pitching. What’s hilarious is the Pirates offense is very left handed heavy, and the pitching staff, well it’s not ok. As I’ll mention in a little, this team will need a vet again next year (preferably a guy with a bit more to offer) so maybe they can just see if he’s willing to accept a small extension. This return won’t knock anyone’s socks off and unless Cody Bolton or Michael Burrows are going to come up and get a shot in 2022, he probably does us more good than what he could return.

Now, if you want to make a case for some other reliever, have at it. I’ll say this, Bednar, Crowe and probably Dillon are gonna stay. This isn’t a super prospect hungry team right now and most moves are going to be made to make room for younger guys or to just recoup something rather than lose someone for nothing. Maybe Bryse Wilson is a guy someone else might want to take a swing at for instance. You want to discuss Heath Hembree, have at it. He’s right in the wheelhouse of someone this team would and should try to move, but as with others, he has to actually play first, and I think based on what we’ve seen that has a better chance of resulting in DFA than trade.

On the other side of the coin, there are a bunch of bad teams this season, and most of them aren’t on the way back up, that could lead to some interesting opportunities. I’m not prepared to suggest something serious yet, but figuring this club has to sign at least one veteran starter next year anyhow, maybe they can eat some salary in exchange for something they need anyhow and some low level prospects.

All that said, the big theme this deadline to me, I think we see they aren’t as prospect hungry as they’ve been. And if they are, it’s on the very very young end of the spectrum.

2. Small, but Potentially Important Change

Mitch Keller recently added a 2-seam fastball into his mix and as a result is throwing fewer 4-seamers.

Whatever you think I’m going to talk about here, it’s not going to be Mitch Keller, as much as the willingness to change course with a player.

Think back to Tyler Glasnow and if at all possible drop the trade whining for a bit too, it’s irrelevant to the discussion, or actually maybe it isn’t come to think of it.

Tyler was constantly told to throw a 2-seam fastball. He didn’t have a handle on it, he didn’t really control it well and in an effort to stop walking 1 out of every 3 guys he faced he would throw it more as a get me over offering. When he went to Tampa, he was allowed to throw what he was comfortable with.

That path doesn’t work for everyone. See Mitch is quite happy throwing his 4-seamer, but the lack of movement is virtual retardant for the velocity.

It took a bit too long, but the fact that the team implemented a change here instead of just scrapping him for someone else to unlock, hey, isn’t that what we need and expect to see from a pitching coach?

It’s 2 outings, and Mitch has reached out to former teammate Clay Holmes for advice about the pitch, but just getting him to embrace the change and work it in this quickly is a bonus. More of this please and less of beating our heads against the wall.

3. The Perpetual Search for Good At Bats

As a general philosophy, the Pirates are all about taking a bunch of pitches.

It’s the real reason they signed Daniel Vogelbach this off season, he literally led the league in number of pitches seen.

It’s cool, I get it, you want patient at bats and all, but this club has taken it to an extreme. Every hitter in the lineup is actively hunting walks and I mean if you aren’t going to murder the ball, I guess that makes sense, but situationally, it’s making an already putrid offense even worse.

You have a runner at 2nd or 3rd with one out, I’m sorry, I don’t want to see Bryan Reynolds step up there to try to work a count. Of course a pitcher is going to prefer walking him. If you want to score more runs, at some point the hitters in this lineup need to get the bat off their shoulder and try to you know, drive the ball somewhere.

I say this because it’s universally applied and preached from the top down. Take that walk! There are times where that just should not be what the guy in the box needs to be hunting. Runner at 3rd with 1 out, I don’t need a walk Ke’Bryan, I need contact.

The run producers (or those we’re at least batting in those spots) need to produce runs. I’d also say, much of this work on the pitch count stuff, well the league has kinda moved on past it. Everyone has built bullpens to negate the effect you desire. Even if by some chance you run into Adam Wainwright on a rare poor control day, he’ll still carve you up and ooooh, maybe you get him to leave the game in the 6th so you can face 3 flame throwers.

A bit of a rant but I’m overall not pleased with the hitting approach. To me it is geared toward the average players and retards the excellence of those capable of it.

4. More Promotions, More Debuts, More Questions

News broke today that Canaan Smith-Njigba and Hoy Park are making their way to the big club tonight.

We have recalled INF Hoy Park and OF Canaan Smith-Njigba from Triple-A Indianapolis.

To make room for Park and Smith-Njigba on the 26-man roster, OF Travis Swaggerty and LHP Aaron Fletcher have been optioned to Indianapolis.

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) June 13, 2022

Now, I’m sure you have some questions here, lord knows I do.

One thing I don’t question is whether Canaan deserved the call up, he absolutely did, simply been raking. Reached base in 40 of his last 41 games. There is just no real reason to keep him down beside no room.

Clearly they’ve decided to make room by demoting Travis Swaggerty.

I’m not sure I get this entirely. Swaggerty hasn’t really had much opportunity up here and it’s not like Smith-Njigba just started hitting, been going on for over a month now. This is a strange way to treat a number one pick honestly.

If they were only going to give him a cup of coffee, I’m not sure why they didn’t just call up CSN in the first place? Bluntly, He was given no opportunity to change his fate, felt like the Pirates decided for him before he got here.

As a person who isn’t a Swaggerty believer, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but man, Tucker got a longer look than that? Park is on his third crack and he has a ceiling of bench at best written all over him.

Again, not complaining about getting some more offense up here, but what did you see from Swaggerty to say he didn’t deserve more opportunity? The hitch in his swing? Well that’s been there since college, if that’s the issue they should have beaten it out of him before a call up ever occurred.

I mean this is a team that called up Jack Suwinski from AA and proceeded to let him start almost 2 consecutive weeks without a break. Watched him hit under .200 with precious little sign he was breaking out of it and finally go on a tear that has him at least for this early stage getting talked about as one of the best rookies in the NL.

Where was that love for Travis? Don’t get me wrong, you have to do what you can with whatever opportunity you get, he didn’t.

That’s embarrassing. He, his wife, his family, none of them could have expected he’d be back to riding busses in just over a week.

Life, and baseball aren’t fair. I just want to understand the rationale, and I’m quite sure when we hear it, we’ll be no more clear.

Regardless, I wanted to see Canaan, so here we go. Good luck kid, hope you get more than 9 at bats.

As to Park, who cares. This isn’t long term I’m guessing. Pirates had to cut the pitching staff anyway unless MLB extends the deadline again so Fletcher headed out isn’t all that earth shattering, although I’m a bit surprised it wasn’t Yerry De Los Santos who they scarcely use since he was called up.

I can say I know the team is really concerned about the 100+ degree weather expected in St. Louis (some of us should remind them how bad astro turf used to be there huh?) so it’s likely about an extra body with (ducks) versatility.

Finally, it’s also been reported that Bryse Wilson will get the 27th man call to start one of the Double Header games. Makes sense if only because anyone else would require a 40-man shuffle. Makes no sense if you’re looking for happy viewers, lol.

5. Two Trailer Park Girls Go Round the Outside…

Yup, guess who’s back? Bryan Reynolds

Looking every bit the player he has already proven himself to be. The month of June has been kind to him in his career, and this one has been no different.

I don’t blame anyone for questioning him, after all, we’re Pirates fans, if we aren’t programmed to be at least a bit pessimistic I don’t know who is. I was starting to worry personally, if only because I’ve seen him struggle, I’ve just never seen him wear it on his face the way I did this year.

The Pirates Performance that Made you Smile – brought to you by Eat n Park. https://t.co/h2vy4gQ9kw

Bryan Reynolds HR in back 2 back games. Solo HR in the 1st on Sat & HR in the 5th on Sun. In June, Reynolds is batting .394 w/ 3 HR and 7 RBIs@EatnPark |@Pirates | #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/503DEnRQv5

— SportsNet Pittsburgh (@SNPittsburgh) June 13, 2022

I mean, it’s what he does. That said, it sure does hurt when he isn’t right. Good teams survive things like this because they have other guys who can pick up the dead weight. The Pirates largely only had Ke’Bryan Hayes and while he’s been good, he isn’t good enough to replace or prop up an underperforming Reynolds.

This team needs both, and hopefully when Cruz gets here they add another to that mix. Some of you are going to yell that Suwinski has been there too and yes you’re right but it’s hard to look at two months of performance, heavily weighted by the past 3 weeks and declare him a breakout. Sure looks like he’s trending that way, but he could just as easily regress.

If this team can add more runs per game and the pitching stays where it is, which I think we’re already seeing it won’t by the way, they could do some damage to anyone looking past them.

Every time a player who actually matters performs, it’s worth noting. Now that this team is composed of 90% guys who matter or at least could, well, individual performance means more than it used to.

Lose 4-3 but Reynolds drove in the 3 runs, it sucks but ok at least a guy who matters hit. Lose 4-3 but Vogey hit a 3 run shot, it sucks and Vogey won’t be here when it matters so who cares we lost. Feel me?

Last season if you got some pop from someone like Phil Evans, c’mon, you knew he didn’t matter.

Bryan matters.

6-6-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Starting to get fun isn’t it?

If you’ve followed along with us here on Inside the Bucs Basement you know this path has been there all along and the timeline is right where we expected.

Here’s why. It was never about identifying a few guys and claiming everything would change when they got here, instead it was about identifying that there were simply too many guys timing up that the team wouldn’t find at least a few who made it up here and started changing everything.

I still have them around 70 wins this year, it’s not like I’m calling a chrysalis a butterfly here, but you’d have to be blind to still be calling it a caterpillar too ya dig?

Can they overachieve and do better than that, certainly. Can the wheels fall off with some key injuries this team can’t overcome, of course. Again, this long range prediction that 2022 would be “fun”, 2023 they should be .500 or better and by 2024 competing for a division has been written in this space since 2020. All the bad, all the good, all the trades, all the wasted pickups, all the DFAs, non-tenders and slow footed call ups, well that’s just what happens on the path.

I never needed to know the how as much as do the math. There are simply too many prospects for all of them to fail. At the same time, to really get over the top, they’ll have to add from outside. Been saying that part for quite some time as well.

This was all here while some were telling you everything was going terribly. All the information was on the table while some were insisting the new GM had no vision because he didn’t sign anyone of note this offseason.

What this team has is a chance. A platform is being built this year and next Spring, well, let’s just say even if they are manipulating a guy next season you might not notice, because it won’t be nearly as glaring a need.

In case you can’t tell, I’m all rested up from a killer vacation and ready to rock, let’s dig in.

1. Rest Up and Feel Better, but We’re Also Not Sure We Need Ya!

Injuries happen in baseball. Almost constantly.

In fact, one of the things that often separates the good teams from the great teams is the ability to weather the storm as it happens. When a guy like say, Roberto Perez goes down to a season ending injury, you see immediately the team has no depth. Now if a guy like Ben Gamel gets hurt, well you see pretty quickly the team has enough to get by if not surpass the previous production. That’s how it works when you’ve constructed a roster well, and frankly, this club isn’t there yet everywhere.

So let’s talk about some of the guys who are on IL who this club is going to be forced to make a decision on as soon as they’re healthy.

Yoshi Tsutsugo – He was in a word, pathetic. Poor defender, power hitter not hitting for power, when he was hitting at all. If he has anything going for him it’s that there is only one prospect who has a shot at coming up here and he’s struggling too right now. Michael Chavis has shown he can play there, and he’s hitting. Daniel Vogelbach can, in a pinch, play first base. When and if Gamel returns, he’s started taking reps there too.
Diagnosis: DFA, barring injury to someone I listed, or a setback for Gamel, I just can’t see a place, and even that pretends Mason Martin never gets a shot this year.

Ben Gamel – It’s clear the Pirates have if nothing else plenty of outfielders they want to get eyes on. Jack Suwinski, Cal Mitchell, Travis Swaggerty, Bryan Reynolds, Tucapita Marcano, but Ben Gamel provides something the rest can’t, veteran presence. I know many will consider Reynolds to be that, and he is, but not in the mold of what Gamel can provide.
Diagnosis: Find a way. Put him at first, send down the lowest performing rookie, whatever it takes, this is a valuable player and teams need experience to mix in with all the youth. These things tend to sort themselves out, like I’m not wishing ill on the kid but let’s not pretend Swaggerty has been a picture of health for instance.

Kevin Newman – The bat hasn’t played, but the glove has. Kevin is a guy who believe it or not has value, even if just as a glove off the bench. Here’s the thing, I said early on this was Kevin’s last season as a Pirate one way or another and as his injury is going to stretch into Oneil Cruz making his debut in 2022, well, let’s just say I don’t see it as a lock he comes back.
Diagnosis: Between Peguero and Cruz, Castillo and Marcano, Bae and Castro, man its hard to find a place isn’t it? I personally still value the glove, but if the Pirates think non-tendering him this off season is on the table, expect them to exercise one of his options at a minimum.

Josh VanMeter – He started hitting before the injury, but after a horrific start to the season. Doesn’t play terribly clean defense. I mean, he’s just a guy. He’s also the closest on this list to returning according to team officials.
Diagnosis: DFA I just can’t sit anyone I just listed for Kevin Newman, to have Josh VanMeter play. Don’t see it. I’ll say this though, this team really seems to like him, so don’t be shocked if he finds a way back.

Heath Hembree – He was one of very few veteran signings this season, and man he was not good. He’s started throwing off a mound and let’s be real honest, that almost always looks ok for a pitcher doesn’t it?
Diagnosis: I think they’ll bring him back, but with pitchers needing trimmed to 12, I’m not sure there is room. Can you pick a guy who should go for him, I can’t. I think I’d DFA him, this bullpen has performed.

First base, Catcher and Starting Pitching are all areas this club is not spoiled for choice. Injuries to any of those spots and answers aren’t really apparent. As you look at the system, catching is there, just not close. The other two, well they have options, just not enough to me to say the math dictates they won’t have to add.

2. Pitching is Carrying This Team

This starting rotation isn’t going to confuse anyone with the early 90’s Braves, but they’re getting the job done. Meaning they’re passing off winnable games more often than not to the bullpen that has simply been stellar.

I’m not here to tell you this is the rotation of the future, or that they have to extend Quintana. I’m not even telling you this is the 5 that will finish the season. I am saying maybe we need to stop calling them the main issue on this club, at least until they get back to looking like it.

I’ve given Oscar Marin a lot of crap, but I can’t complain about how the pitching has performed overall in 2022, it’s simply been above the line, especially compared to where most of us probably assumed they’d be.

The bullpen has been just about unshakable. Anchored by David Bednar clearly but Wil Crowe, Dillon Peters, Chase De Jong, Chris Stratton, Anthony Banda and others have all stepped up and delivered quality innings. Duane Underwood Jr. simply looks like a different pitcher altogether. If the starters hang in long enough to hand a game within reach to this pen, 9 times out of 10 it’s going to stay in the realm of winnable.

3. Don’t Mistake Energy for Polish

The vast majority of prospects will struggle. Maybe not immediately, but at some point during their progression, they will hit at least a bump if not an all together road block.

As the Pirates have unleashed a fast and furious uptick of prospects coming up, it’s important to remember prospects are kinda like IKEA furniture to a degree. Most of them have all the pieces you need but they’re only as good as the assembly goes.

Now you have as long as you like to build it, but once you force that dowel rod into the wrong hole you might just always have a wobbly leg or a drawer that doesn’t quite fit.

When these kids come up here, some are going to look like a ball of fire. The league doesn’t know them, and they don’t know what they don’t know. Most of the time you’ll see it level off but almost always they will meet the league. Meaning the league will eventually develop a book and that book will remain the book until the player pushes back.

So when Jack Suwinski comes up and does well, then valleys out and starts the slow climb back up, know that only happens because the team gave him time to do it. They kept putting him in while he was batting .180 with 1 homerun. To his credit, he kept playing good defense, and continued to take professional at bats. More to his credit, he has seen what the league did and he’s adjusted. This cat and mouse will continue of course, but this is the development at this level many talk about.

Diego Castillo has been different than that. Diego has been consistent, and his consistency has led many to believe he is what he is, thing is, he isn’t done learning he just didn’t valley. The important thing with Diego is really about what they want him to be, a utility man. They’ve put him at every infield position so far and right field and he’s handled each capably.

Polish is what you’re starting to see from Ke’Bryan Hayes. Now in his third year, he’s seen the league push back, he’s played through injury, he’s fought the urge to ignore pulling the ball, he’s fought the urge to just hit for average and forego power. That’s what it looks like, and feels like. Some guys that might take a couple seasons, others, maybe 6 weeks. Every player is unique and no set schedule is in place.

Watch this stuff and individualize each situation. All these players have tools it’s up to them to learn to use them and the coaches to help them realize their potential.

4. Are the Pirates Done Trading?

Never.

I said this before, and yes, I understand why it pisses some of you off, but folks that’s just how this is going to be.

I will say, it’s different now. Specifically the Pirates asks.

This team still needs starting pitching in the system and preferably close to the league, and on top of that they still need low level prospects, preferably with very little time on their clock, meaning you shouldn’t have to make a Rule 5 protection call for a minute.

People suggest things like David Bednar or Bryan Reynolds but that’s simply not where this team is in this build. Ripping open holes in parts of the boat they’ve plugged doesn’t make a bunch of sense.

Now, a guy like Chris Stratton could be available, Jose Quintana could be up, maybe even Ben Gamel. Each of these guys is playing in their walk year. They all can go after this year for nothing, be retained or moved for prospects to keep the system stocked as players start graduating.

Opening a window is a given at this point. There’s enough coming that they’ll be a competitive team, but if you want more than a window, they have to make smart moves and letting talent walk for nothing isn’t smart.

Now if by some chance this team is like 3 games out of a wild card this year (I know, I know, it’s just a discussion ok) then maybe you look at all these kids working and learning and say, know what, Quintana is going to give us a shot here and these kids need to see we support them. Insert any name you want there honestly, same convo.

If anything you could see this club deal some guys from depth to find prospects or actual MLB players who could help for a while. Not particularly this season but maybe you eat salary in exchange for a prospect and get yourself a vet starter for the next couple seasons. Who knows.

One thing I know for sure though, you can’t look at the seemingly endless stream of logjammed prospects and think trades are over, they simply aren’t.

As it sits, this window will be long open by the time 2021 draft picks start matriculating to MLB but you have to start preparing for that group to be just as impactful as this one looks to be.

That’s reality in this market. Extend a guy like Hayes, maybe don’t extend a guy like Peguero. Point being, you can’t get everyone inked for 8 years in a town like this, and if you expect that I encourage you to not get caught up in a wishful thinking situation that will never lead anywhere.

And no, I’m not singling out Peguero, just picking a name out of a hat to illustrate a point. Some of these guys are destined to come up here, help, and ultimately be moved out for another guy who’s ready and returning more guys to back fill the lower levels. The Tampa model says to do that much earlier than most teams would, the Pirates are likely to do it in Arb 2 year or final arb year.

Never is your answer. And the owners name won’t change that.

It’s not what many of you want to hear, but it is what you need to hear.

5. Oneil Cruz Will Soon Get the Call, and He’ll be at Short Stop

The Pirates still have a desire to train Cruz to play the outfield, and that’s largely because he’s on pace for just about 50 errors playing short stop. That said, look at the club, he isn’t going to find playing time out there in MLB, not now.

I also think he’ll commit enough errors to cost himself that position over time, but when he comes up I just can’t see a way he isn’t going to play the position to start.

He could be a DH but it’s a waste of an arm. He could probably transition to first base, the team needs it, but that’s not something to teach right now. Outfield is still a possibility but I honestly think it’s going to take Cruz seeing for himself that it’s an issue. It’s going to take an irritated pitcher getting in his face (They might need a step stool). It might take a coach flatly telling him if you’d like to play professional baseball here are your options and SS isn’t one of them.

If anything, I’m irritated the Pirates let this go on so long. It was clear as day he wasn’t a short stop as far back as 2019, but they continued to ignore the elephant in the room until it got so far along they have little choice. And I specifically say Pirates because this spans two regimes.

This is all part of development too of course, but as I always say, if the bat plays, he’ll play. Where is largely irrelevant until he hits his way into needing to be a regular.

Yes, young pitchers need a consistent defense but you just saw with a much lesser prospect named Castro that they’re willing to deal with it in an effort to let someone just play. It may not be smart, but it has precedence and I think we’ll see it again for this young man.