Finding Future Pirates Down On The Farm

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-csdn6-123cd7f

Spenser Smith brings play-by-play magic to Bradenton Marauders broadcasts, and is the perfect expert to bring in for a look down on the farm. We’re talking about the prospects you know, the ones you don’t know and how it takes more than a quick look at the stat sheets to evaluate progress in the minors. Let’s take a glance at the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers

5-31-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Last week I mentioned how I almost always have my options narrowed down to a standard eight or nine Pirates Prospects that I watched have a higher level of success over the previous series of games; including a few I hope will make their way onto the list. However, as I sat racking my brain this Monday afternoon, I honestly had a hard time coming up with more than three or four sure fire qualifiers. As the day turned to evening I felt fairly confident in my decision to add one more to the list; with the final player changing at least six or seven times. Sure, its possible that I am becoming more finicky, or selective in my choices; yet, inconsistency among players could also be another feasible explanation.

For example. Nick Gonzales Mason Martin and Travis Swaggerty were three prospects I considered placing in the Top 5 a week ago. Ultimately, I wanted to see the progress they made over their most recent contests continue before I officially made this determination.

Leading up to my decision the main concerns I had were Gonzales batting .212 AVG and striking out 36.5% of the time through the first 30 games of the season, Swaggerty hitting a paltry .174 with a 46 wRC+ before talking the field prior to May 17th and Martin tallying double digit strike outs in 7 of 12 games. This hesitation occurred in spite of Gonzales batting .417 for the week with two homers, Swaggerty seemly breaking out by hitting .563 in 5 games against Mud Hens, and Martin blasting 3 homers in the last four games at Victory Field.

Clearly this indecisiveness was somewhat warranted as Gonzales struck out 32.1% of the time while posting a .250 AVG, Swaggerty also batted .250 with a 92 wRC+ and Martin was sat down 42.4% of the time he came up to the plate. Obviously they weren’t absolutely awful overall performances; especially in Martin’s case with another three homers added to his yearly tally, which now stands at 11. Still, it’s hard to give them the stamp of approval when they all continue to struggle to a certain degree.

Now you can add Canaan Smith-Njigba to the trio of Gonzales, Martin and Swaggerty; that I am continuing to monitor more closely to see if hot weeks turn into consistent performance streaks. During his first 35 games Smith-Njigba was batting .231 with an OPS of .704 and a league average wRC+ of 100. Over this past week he had a .417 AVG with an OPS of 1.101 and a wRC+ of 202.

Will this be his springboard for the remainder of the season? I have no clue. Could it be? I sure hope so. Nevertheless-for the moment-he will remain outside the Top 5.

1) Mike Burrows-RHP (Altoona)

Dominant could easily be used as the word to describe Burrow’s performance with the Curve this year. Outside of a 5 inning, 4 earned run outing against Somerset a couple of weeks ago, the Pirates #11 Prospect according to MLB Pipeline has become the talk of Altoona. Prior to season Quinn Priester, and possibly Carmen Mlodzinski may have overshadowed him at times. However, with Priester still on the shelf with an oblique injury, and Mlodzinski fighting through a shoulder issue, Burrows has truly emerged.

During his most recent outing, Burrows tossed 7 shutout innings; allowing only 2 hits, while striking out 8 and walking 1 batter on 83 pitches. For the season he has a 1.90 ERA, a 2.67 FIP, a .867 WHIP and 54 Ks over 42.2 innings of work.

2) Oneil Cruz-SS/OF (Indianapolis)

Yes, I realize that many of you think he shouldn’t be, or wish he wasn’t eligible for this list. However, it may surprise you that this is the first time Cruz has found his way onto the Top 5.

Following a slow start to the season in Indianapolis, Cruz has incrementally made improvements at the plate over the past month. During April he posted a .176 AVG and a .566 OPS, to go along with a 32.9% K to 11.8% BB ratio and only 1 homer. Since that time he has bumped his AVG up by nearly 50 points, seen his OPS creep over .700, cut his strikeout rate down to 25.1%, kept his walk rate pretty steady at 12.6% and smacked 6 more dingers; including 3 during this most recent series.

Sadly, thanks to an injury sustained by sliding into second base on Sunday, Cruz’s progress may be put on hold for a little bit. And, even though it has been described as a grade one ankle sprain upon further evaluation, it’s probably worth checking in on Todd Tomczyk’s medical report tomorrow for a potential timeline.

3) Ji-hwan Bae-2B/CF (Indianapolis)

For the second straight week, Bae has made his way onto the short list with consistent play. During the most recent series against the St. Paul Saints he batted .370 and hit his 5th homer of the season; adding in 3 doubles and a triple with the help of his 70 grade speed.

On the year he is slashing .301/.381/.503 with a 137 wRC+ and a 17.1% K to 11.9% BB ratio. Currently his .884 OPS is tops on the Indians, while his .301 AVG is second to only Cal Mitchell’s .306. Because of this fact it is probably worth noting Mitchell’s addition to the 40-Man, and promotion to the Pirates exactly a week ago.

4) Noe Toribio-RHP (Altoona)

For the first half of 2021 Toribio was a regular in the Curve’s rotation; posting a 5.35 ERA and a 1.330 WHIP, while striking out 24 batters and allowing 5 home runs in 35.1 innings. Following these 8 starts, he found his way to the bullpen for his last 6 appearances of the season. Accumulating only 14.2 innings of work, Toribio experienced success to the tune of a 1.80 ERA, a .818 WHIP and 16 Ks.

Due to this more than favorable outcome in his new role, it was no surprise that he would remain a reliever with Altoona to begin 2022; eventually building up to a 5 inning appearance during his last outing to close out the game. Over his last 8.2 innings Toribio has not surrendered a single free pass or an earned run, while striking out 12 opposing batters. On the year he owns a 1.86 ERA and a .897 WHIP across 29 innings and 10 appearances.

5) Kyle Nicolas-RHP (Altoona)

Usually my list is in no particular order; however, as I stated before, this week was absolutely different than the rest. In the end I’m not completely sure if Nicolas 100% deserved to make the cut.

On the year he has a 4.21 ERA that is pretty much line with his 4.03 FIP, is striking out batters at a constant rate of 11.89 per 9 as compared to 11.44 last season and has decreased his BB/9 from 5.72 to 3.47; although walks have continued to plague him as evidenced by him giving up 2 or more free passes in over half of his 9 starts-including his last 4-to begin the season.

During his most recent start Nicolas went a five innings on a season high 84 pitches, striking out 8 for the second time in 3 games; which ultimately put him over the edge in my mind.

There you have it! My Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers for the eighth week of 2022.

Now remember, let me know I missed, who your Top 5 is and be sure check back each and every Tuesday during the Minor League Baseball Season!

As I was prepping-and diligently researching for-this week’s post it was announced that Cole Tucker had been DFA’d; officially removing him from the 40-Man roster, to make was for newly acquired Yu Chang from the Cleveland Guardians.

To his credit Cole always acted and looked the part of someone that you would want to succeed. An infectious personality, love and excitement for the game, near constant energy and a great rapport with Pirates Fans. Unfortunately these qualities never fully transferred into his play on the field. Glimpses were all we ever really got to see. A game winning home run in his debut, a web gem toward the end of last season and a grand slam to cap it off.

In his career thus far, Tucker has a slash line of .211/.259/.314 with a combined -2.1 WAR. This season he had 25 strikes and zero walks in 63 plate appearances; ultimately resulting in him sticking to the left side of the plate in favor of his usual switch hitting role. Optioned to Indianapolis back on May 12th, he continued to struggle; bringing about something that had become almost inevitable.

Criticize Neal Huntington for reaching to draft him in the first round back in 2014. Blame them for failing to develop him as he moved through the Pirates Farm System. Point to his early and abrupt call-up in 2019 following the Erik Gonzalez-Starling Marte collision. Condemn the outfield experiment of 2020. All of these more than likely played a part in where we are today. But, so did the extra month of individual work with Jon Nunnally leading up to last season. Maybe it was just too little, too late.

No matter the reasoning, the result remains the same. Another ill-fated first round pick for your Pittsburgh Pirates. Not the worst by any stretch of the imagination, because Tucker actually made it to the Show. But, an overarching failure nonetheless. Which is definitely something Cherington and Company need to improve upon, if they want to outperform the previous regime.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

5-29-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates are out on a West Coast trip and sometimes that means things slip through the cracks, other times, it means fans have nothing but the “news” to pay attention to and that creates a narrative all it’s own.

This week I’m coming to you from Hilton Head Island in South Carolina.

1. Ke’ Gets Rewarded

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been right there for a few weeks. Swinging the way he wants to, getting some good results here and there but mostly just not quite getting to pitches exactly where he wants to.

Finally he got to one and put the ball out for a three run shot and got his club the W in San Diego.

Now, Hayes is likely not a guy who’s going to hit 30 homeruns, at least not until he feels the need to alter his approach as his skill set changes through the years, but he’s also a guy who hits the ball hard enough he should have a few more than he does, and on this team, he might as well be Frank Thomas.

2. What Do I Have to Do?

More than once this season I’ve had minor league players reach out to me and simply ask do you think the team notices XX that I’m doing? Or, I don’t understand why I’m not getting playing time, how am I supposed to show my improvement?

Anyone who’s done this stuff for a decent amount of time will tell you, this happens a lot. Well, the reaching out part, the confusion/seeking of direction, well, not so much until this season for me anyway.

I should also add, this is a wide swath of players, young and getting older, but one common theme is, not understanding what it takes to get called up. Call up a guy like Hoy Park to fill an OF role and boom, questions. Call up a guy from AA instead of AAA, boom questions.

Most of the time they just want to know if you’ve heard anything specifically about them but other times it’s a simple hope that someone, even if just a dumb blogger and podcaster has noticed what they’ve done recently.

This isn’t to tell you the Pirates are destroying the system as much as to say, these are real people, with real lives, putting in real effort every day. and none of them like guessing about what they need to do to get to the next stop.

Even as they’re happy for their teammates who get the call. Even as they actively root for their teammates to succeed. Every one of these guys is a competitor.

3. Oneil Cruz’ Attitude Problem

I should start by saying this, I’ve had exactly zero people tell me there is a hint of truth to this. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen, doesn’t mean he hasn’t said something here or there, but I can’t find anyone who believes there is really an issue here.

And believe me, I’ve heard it without asking for some guys.

The first time I really saw this stuff start was way back after the incident in the Dominican. Some decided right there, that day he was a bad guy, and even being cleared of wrongdoing wasn’t enough to entirely have people say, ok he’s alright, I was real quick to judge. You know, cause that’s people in the social media world.

Now it’s partially been created to illustrate just how disgruntled he is with the way he’s being managed or held back in the system. Things like looking at his watch when he hits a dinger, or his Spanish language interview have been the catalyst.

He’s so mad when he plays outfield don’t you know?!

Yeah, maybe, but here’s what I heard, do with it as you will.

When asked about wanting to play the outfield, he of course said no in his interview. That’s what it was though, an answer to a question. Kinda like my wife asking me if I want to bike 4 miles to some place for coffee, without having had coffee first. No is a great answer, but it doesn’t mean I’ll never want to do it, or I’m ok to try it, but do I right this second WANT to? Hell no.

The watch thing, initially was about saying it was time for him to get the call. Now it’s more like ‘Cruz Time’.

He’s a good teammate by all accounts, he’s got a strong will to try what he wants for his path, but he’s not a stupid man, and sees that his path to the majors could be different than he would like.

Bottom line, very largely overblown.

Also, no need to get hung up on the batting average, I’m told the team isn’t. What he’s being asked to work on, he is and his average is of little concern for now.

Will he be a star? Who knows, but nothing happening right now is going to lead to 6 years of disgruntled player.

4. When Building Something, Maybe Get a Mason

Now, the only thing I can figure on why this team hasn’t called up Mason Martin quite yet is that they don’t think they’re done with Yoshi, Vogelbach and Chavis, which, they probably aren’t, but I’m sorry, when there is a clear need and you go to Josh VanMeter and Hoy Park for answers while this dude is plowing homeruns in Indy, ain’t no way you avoid criticism.

The best I could get from anyone on Mason was, he’s working hard and showing the adjustments are working.

He pumped his fist after hitting a homerun the other day, I’ll have to assume he’s really disgruntled and filled with team directed rage. (insert sarcasm emoji)

It’s clear he’s at least going to get a shot to be the first baseman on this club. He may not be the one who lasts through but a shot he’ll get, and I’d imagine an extended one. Might as well start now if you ask me.

More than anything, this team needs to stop acting like positions are just for show. Actually knowing what you’re doing at a position in the majors is kinda a big deal.

5. Cherington isn’t a God

In 2019 Ben Cherington started making moves and in 2019 fanboys started talking about the infallibility of his plan. They ignored that his plan at least publicly was rather vague, they ignored that his last GM stop in Boston ended at least a little weird. They ignored that this is the Pirates and a GM’s job here is always going to be harder.

He’s done well to stock the system, and fruit is starting to ripen.

As predicted way back when though, if you paint him as a deity, you’re bound to be disappointed. No GM does everything right, to everyone. They make stupid or stubborn moves, they fall in love with inferior players, they dislike a prospect you love. Sometimes they support a coach you don’t believe in or some, cough, all, manipulate service time.

Criticizing Ben Cherington has been A OK for his entire tenure, it’s just to some everything is as stark as blue pill, red pill. He’s either all bad or all perfect. When Hoy Park is the call up to address no first baseman, well, it’s hard to defend or understand, so, boom, all bad.

I’ve always cautioned to evaluate everything as you go, this is why. Because when he deserves criticism, you won’t have to act like everything you believed in was a lie when ultimately something counter is done.

Play the Kids, but Be Smart About it

5-26-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Tucapita Marcano, Calvin Mitchell, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos, Jack Suwinski, Diego Castillo, Cal Aldred, Beau Sulser, and Rodolfo Castro, have all been called up to the big leagues this year, and it’s been really fun watching all the debuts and the injection of hope and energy they provide.

All that said, more are on the way and as fans restlessly point to those who haven’t been brought up yet, or even who should, I think we need to talk a bit about why you might want to just slow down at least a little and enjoy it in the stages it comes.

You all know this is no surprise to me, I’ve been telling most of you who read consistently or listen for that matter, since 2020, this season was the first time we’d really start to feel the results of this rebuild. Meaning, 2022 was always going to be the first time prospects started forcing their way onto this club.

Maybe not the prospects you wanted or expected. Maybe not when you wanted or expected. Perhaps not to replace whom you really think needs to go, but the youth is very much so in the process of remaking this club.

Some of them won’t stay, and many of you will feel they didn’t get a fair shake. Some will stick and you’ll wonder what the team is seeing that you aren’t.

This isn’t a Pirates phenomena as much as an event we really haven’t seen in these parts for quite some time. Oh, some of you will claim to remember it from the last run, but really think back, nobody was excited Jordy Mercer was coming up here, despite how he turned out. Hardly anyone believed Josh Harrison would become a regular starter. Marte, Polanco, Cutch, Cole, Taillon, that’s quite a list but it didn’t happen all in one season like this. Another big difference, there wasn’t much else coming, at least not quickly.

What the Pirates did really was create a pinch point. A small area where some might squeak through but most weren’t going to fit, then finally the pressure was just too much and the flow is open.

Lots of folks were really mad about the club not signing more veterans in the off season and I’ll agree, more pitching, specifically a starter would be welcome, even another Quintana type, but this is why. What you’re watching unfold right now is the exact reason a ton of vets weren’t brought in.

See the Yoshi Tsutsugo situation. Here’s a guy who’s really not performing, at the plate, or in the field. His 4 million dollar price tag has probably allowed him to survive this long, but it won’t last much longer if he doesn’t show signs of life soon.

Mason Martin is breathing down his neck, Michael Chavis is proving he’s much more capable, and Daniel Vogelbach has rendered him irrelevant as a DH when healthy. Heck the team has even started having Gamel take reps over there recently, you know, cause they kinda have a ton of outfield prospects just about to be ready together.

The decisions will get tougher, but veterans have their place and the team would do well to not banish them all just to chase the next hot hitter or arm. Leadership and experience don’t always travel together, but when they do, a young team needs nothing more, well, aside from opportunity.

I write all this because I’m telling you, you’ve never seen what’s coming, unless you lived through the 70’s that is. Good players are going to get passed by better players. Once you have the obvious easy choices moved out of the way, man it get’s tough.

Play with me a bit here, Jack Suwinski has an awful batting average, but he’s looked the part in the field and hit some big homeruns. Takes a nice at bat, so it’s not like he’s flailing up there. In a normal year, even hitting under .200 he’s probably a guy you aren’t done watching right? Well, some other guys have started really pressing like Cal Mitchell who was just called up, Travis Swaggerty is starting to hit better, Canaan Smith-Njigba has been on a tear. At some point, these decisions aren’t going to be so easy to call for right?

Wanna get really crazy? Bryan Reynolds at some point is going to be asked to do more than hit .220 and struggle. They aren’t there yet obviously but at some point, it’s not crazy to think some of the guys we’ve already seen and some of who’s on the way could force even a guy we all believe in to either perform or get out of the way. I don’t think it’ll come to this, but I also don’t think anyone saw Matt Gorski flying through the system suddenly either or Conner Scott finally looking like the top pick Miami thought he was. Think about it, did you ever see Paul DeJong a 28 year old veteran who used to be a vital part of the St. Louis lineup getting sent down to AAA because some kids were far superior? It happens especially when you have a thriving system which St. Louis seemingly always has. Finally the Pirates can rival that aspect of their franchise minimally.

I told you 2022 would be fun. Not successful. Not above .500. Not a playoff team, but fun. I also told you the team would be much better in September than it was in April. I think we’re on track for all of that, and folks, it’s just starting.

Yes, they’ll still have to add players from outside, of course, but when this club shows up in Bradenton next Spring, it has a chance to be a really nicely filled out squad with several top prospects pushing to unseat someone either during camp or shortly thereafter.

All of those trades for “nothing” suddenly don’t look like nothing do they?

I’m not here to tell you that the record doesn’t matter, it certainly does to these players and us fans, but I am telling you growing pains are part of this, and as many as possible should work through those this year. Again, the very reason they weren’t artificially blocked with free agents.

It’s going to still be frustrating at times, hell, maybe the entire coaching staff aren’t the right ones to get the job done, I’d like to think they’ll use this year to find that out too even if many of us think we already know.

I’ll say this though, this team is very much so on the path they intended to be, and they’ve even got enough to battle through injuries. Enjoy the ride, be honest about what you see, and more than anything folks, let’s have real baseball talk about real baseball players, because that’s what we have in front of us right now.

The kids won’t let the energy drop too far the rest of the way, even if they get smacked in the nose a few times as they grow.

Top 15 Prospect Update

5-11-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

I’d be lying if I said I haven’t been looking forward to this week’s update as it was a tremendous week for a lot of the Bucs main prospects. And this excitement was multiplied due to a few promotions, let’s get to it!

1-Oneil Cruz

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.278/.409/.500.909.222.40614818.2%9.1%
Season.197/.317/.350.667.153.3098513.7%24.8%

2-Henry Davis Small Non-Displaced Fracture (Left Wrist)

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.200/.500/.8001.300.600.53724312.5%%0%
AA.200/.500/.8001.300.600.53724312.5%%0%
A+.341/.450/.5851.035.244.4621798%18%

3-Roansy Contreras Promoted to MLB

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%k%
week5.23.184.891.244.3%17.4%
AAA20.12.664.654.021.1813.3%28.9%
MLB7.23.523.732.890.919.7%32.3%

4-Liover Peguero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.296/.321/..481.803.185.3491180%17.9%
Season.317/.346/.517.864.200.3761353.9%19.6%

5-Quinn Priester-no stats yet

6-Nick Gonzales

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
week.417/.483/.7921.274.375.52923613.8%17.2%
season.250/.368/.398.766.148.35011814.2%32.9%

7-Endy Rodriguez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWR+BB%K%
week.176/.300/.353.653.176.3068010%30%
season.268/.353/.480.832.211.3731238.6%27.3%

8-Matt Fraizer

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.286/.375/.429.804.143.3651288.3%20%
season.194/.241/.302.543.109.246504.4%29.9%

9-Jared Jones

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week103.605.081,007%18.6%
season33.25.885.664.371.3710.1%29.5%

10-Bubba Chandler No stats

11-Ji-hwan Bae

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
week.400/.471/.8001.271.400.53423011.8%5.9%
season.286/.370/.468.838.183.37112512.3%16.4%

12-Michael Burrows

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week51.802.93.8010%30%
season35.22.272.784.090.957.7%32.2%

13-Travis Swaggerty

*wow*

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.563/.611/.8751.486.313.63629611.1%11.1%
season.247/.333/.353.686.106.3179011.3%32%

14-Miguel Yajure-7-Day IL (Hip/Back)

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week0.227.0037.957.5057.1%14.3
AAA2.26.758.324.062.2528.6%%42.9%
MLB10.111.325.896.672.1311.3%7.5%

15-Anthony Solometo- No stats

MY FIVE

16-Kyle Nicolas

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week6.26.753.831.8012.5%40.6%
season31.14.314.304.161.189.2%30.8%

17-Maikol Escotto

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.063/.118/.250.368.188.162-105.6%44.4%
season.186/.246/.389.635.204.282665.7%34.1%

18-Mason Martin

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.300/.391/.9001.291.600.52122213%26.1%
season.254/.327/.580.907.326.3831339%31.4%

19- Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.200/.400/.267.667.067.34410515%35%
season.257/.379/.404.782.147.36411811.4%36.4%

20-Connor Scott

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.368/.381/.579.960.211.40515564,8%28.6%
season.292/.350/.425.775.132.3461167.6%22.7%

A Few quick thoughts

All in all a really good week in the system. And it looks like we should see some promotions making it all the more exciting!

Feeling hot, hot, hot:

-Man, what a turn around for Nick Gonzales! He raised his batting average 38 points, his OBP 27 points, his slugging 90 points and his OPS an eye popping 117 points. Nice to see.

-Travis Swaggerty is apparently alive and well. Pushing his average up 73 points! His OBP 74 points, his slugging 130 and his OPS a Herculean 185 points. Ya gotta root for the dude and finally he gave something good to cheer for. If Swaggerty can develop here it could be a bonus for the team!

-Mason Martin! I keep saying how important it is for Martin to take his walks? He’s been doing this lately and seeing the results all around. His power will play anywhere if he can keep the plate small enough for it to matter.

Keep on keeping on:

-Jihwan Bae and Liover Peguero have found a consistency to their bats and both keep trucking along. I have to think that both are forcing the FO for much deserved promotions.

-Michael Burrows, man. I have to think he gets a 50 FV from Fangraphs soon and a promotion to go with it?

Catch you on the rebound:

-Really good job of rebounding quickly for Connor Scott. He and Nicholas both continue to suggest I was wrong on the Jacob Stalling trade, join me on that won’t you? Scott is another name that could be called into his manager’s office and told to pack his bags and catch the next bus out to Indy.

-Jared Jones. The stat line this week doesn’t “wow” you like Gonzo and Swags does. But it matters every bit as much. Control is going to be his biggest area of improvement and he lost it last week, he didn’t have his best stuff this week but he got outs without striking everyone out (8 in 10 innings of work); and, it’s important for him to learn he can do that. Nice rebound Jared!

Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers

5-24-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Back when I made my first list-and for the few posts that followed-everything was truly a snapshot, or the often used small sample size of how a player was performing. No one had more than 30 at bats, starters maybe went three or four innings and relievers probably only made a handful of appearances at most. However, at this point the Minor League Baseball Season is beginning to hit its stride-as the dust should be fully shaken off from the Winter months-a better picture what the season holds for many players in the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System is really coming into focus. Sure breakouts and turn-around could still happen, but for the most part guys have started to get their footing.

For this reason my own process of how each selection is made has started to morph a little bit; because honestly, one solid week doesn’t mean as much when the total body of work doesn’t match up with guys that have been putting up numbers all year long. So, at times a hitter or pitcher that had a productive series or outing may be left off in favor of someone that has strung together a few series in a row; or at least have the good ones outweigh the bad. In a few cases I have waited a week to add a player, just to make sure what I am seeing could be real.

For example, over the past day or two I had my options narrowed down to the standard eight or nine Pirates Prospects that I watched have a higher level of success over the previous week; including three that I really wanted to put in the Top 5. Nick Gonzales broke out at the beginning of this most recent series with a two doubles and a home run; batting .417 for the week, and adding another homer along the way. Travis Swaggerty came back from his short IL stint with a vengeance to bat .563 in 5 games against Mud Hens; with a home run and a triple in Friday night’s contest. Not to be outdone, Mason Martin blasted 3 homers in the last four games in the series against Toledo; tossing in a triple and a double for good measure.

Yet, with Gonzales batting .212 AVG and striking out 36.5% of the time through the first 30 games of the season, Swaggerty hitting a paltry .174 with a 46 wRC+ before talking the field a week ago and Martin tallying double digit strike outs in 7 of 12 games leading up to this past week, I found it hard to make them a weekly top performer-again in Martin’s case-until I see more consistency.

1) Andres Alvarez-IF/LF/DH (Altoona)

This is Alvarez’s second time on the list, with his his first appearance coming back on May 3rd. At the time the Washington State Product was hitting .273 with a 1.025 OPS and three home runs. Since then he has upped his average and OPS to .311 and 1.134 respectively, while cranking out an additional 5 bombs; which now puts him in lead on the Curve with 8 homers.

During the latest series Alvarez batted .421, hit 4 homers, swiped 3 bags in as many attempts and extended his current hitting streak to 9 games. Although a middle infielders by trade, Curve’s Manager Kieran Mattison has started to use him in the outfield, just to get his bat in the lineup.

2) Christofer Melendez-RHP (Indianapolis)

With Yerry De Los Santos earning a promotion to The Show yesterday, Melendez now has the opportunity to step into the role of the shutdown reliever in the Indians bullpen. On the season he has posted a 2.76 ERA, a 1.224 WHIP and struck out 23 over 16.1 innings and 12 appearances.

Originally signed by the Houston Astros as an International Free Agent back in 2014, he was released three years later, picked up by White Sox, selected by the Padres in the MiLB Portion of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft and immediately traded to the Pirates for cash considerations. Needless to say it’s been a journey for the now 24-year old righty from the Dominican Republic.

With a fastball that run in the upper-90’s, touching 100 on occasion, Melendez has continually struck out batters at high rate, since joining the White Sox. However, walks have also followed him due to a lack of control; with the season being no different. For the year he has 12.67 K/9, with an unfortunate 5.51 BB/9 in tow; a stat somewhat ballon by two rough outings where he walked a total of 5 batters across 2.1 innings.

Nevertheless over his past 3 appearances, Melendez seems to be putting things together. Over 4.1 innings he has struck out 8, walked 2, allowed a single hit and given up no runs.

Of the players on this week’s list, Melendez may still be one that fits into that snapshot/small sample size as a reliever with limited appearances, Even so, as the MLB roster continues to churn, his is a name that could be called upon sooner rather than later.

3) Cody Bolton-RHP (Indianapolis)

Bolton-like Alvarez-is making his second appearance on my list; showing up in the inaugural Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers, following an Opening Day start and relief appearance during the first week of the season.

Initially I was curious about his use as a reliever; and, actually wondered if it was a way to get him innings after two years on the shelf. However, after seeing him bounce back and forth between an opener/starter and coming out of the bullpen nearly every week, this seems like a verifiable plan to make his role with the pitching staff fluid.

On the season, Bolton has a 3.33 ERA, a 1.315 WHIP and 32 strike outs in 24.1 innings. It should also be noted that he has yet to allow a long ball during this time.

This past he first appeared as a piggyback to the opener; going 4 innings, striking out 6, walking two, allowing 1 hit and zero runs. On Sunday he got the start; putting up an nearly identical stat line of 3.1 IP/1 H/ 0 ER/1 BB/6 K.

4) Ji-Hwan Bae-2B/CF (Indianapolis)

Bae is one of a few Pirates Prospects that I thought might get held up in Altoona, when I wrote about him this past off-season; mostly due to the number of middle infield and outfielders that could have filled up the roster at Indianapolis. In the end this fear didn’t come to fruition as he found himself with the Indians from day one; spending most of his time at second base, but also longing some innings in centerfield-something that started last year in his time with the Curve.

Along with creating some position flexibility/versatility at PNG Field, Bae also began to show a little more pop in his bat. Prior to the 2021 MiLB Season, he did not have a single home run in the Pirates Farm System. By the end of the year he had 8; including 7 while in Altoona, in 320 at bats.

This pattern has continued in Indianapolis as he already has 4 homers in 126 at bats; counting his most recent one this past Friday.

For the week he had 6 hits-3 of them for extra bases, in 15 at bats, walked 2 twice and only struck out once; the latter two being fairly standard for him as evidenced by his 16.7% K to 12.3% BB rate(s).

Now, as far as on the season goes, Bae is slashing .286/.370/.468 with a 125 wRC+ and a team high 10 stolen bases.

5) Tucupita Marcano-IF/OF (Altoona)

Yes, I realize Marcano’s name is known to cause a visceral reaction from some within the Pirates Fanbase based on how he was acquired; and, in some cases the number of times Cherington tried to get his man. Ben made his first run for Tucupita in the Musgrove Deal, but had to settle for making him a part of the Frazier Trade; only after throwing in quite a bit of cash to the Padres.

Seen as the headliner for these reason(s)-as well as the fact that he made the Day Roster for San Diego at 21-the expectation(s) for him were also inflated. Some of this was absolutely understandable after seeing Marcano struggle in his time with the Indians; earning him the nickname Adam Frazier Light across Pirates Fan Social Media. In his final 48 games of the season he batted .230 with a .604 OPS.

Then as this year began he got somewhat of a surprise assignment/demotion to Double-A, which caused the jeers to only get louder; forgetting the fact that he had essentially skipped this exact level, and Triple-A for 25 games with the Padres just last year. Meaning, just maybe it was time for a little bit of a reset.

Over the last week, Marcano hit for a .412 AVG, walked 5 times, struck out twice and showed opposite field power for a homer and a double; bringing his season average up to .286 with 11 total extra base hits.

There you have it! My Top 5 Pirates Prospect Performers for the seventh week of 2022.

Now remember, let me know I missed who your Top 5 is and be sure check back each and every Tuesday during Minor League Baseball Season!

As I was putting a bow on this week’s post it was announced that outfielder Cal Mitchell-and current #25 Pirates Prospect-was being promoted to the Major League Club. So, I thought it would be as good a time as any to share my post on the former Rancho Bernardo Bronco from the old SI.com Pirates site. You know, the defunct blog that started this all.

https://www.si.com/mlb/pirates/mlb/pirates/prospects/pittsburgh-pirates-prospect-spotlight-cal-mitchell

Hey Pirates, Let The Kids Play!

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-idwc6-12331c5

The guys would like to see some of the young prospects get some playing time at the MLB level, and Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette agrees. Listen as he identifies one of the biggest frustrations for Pirates fans. We’re also looking for positives in the rotation, while celebrating six Pirates prospects moving up the rankings on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 List. (Now if only we could get them to Pittsburgh.)

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

5-23-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Awful week of performance, or should we say, lack thereof for the Pirates. As expected, we’re now starting to see more of the youth brought up to the big leagues and the metamorphosis of this roster is officially underway. It’ll continue, and in short order too.

1. Pitching Reinforcements

The Pirates called up Roansy Contreras and Yerry De Los Santos. I’m fairly certain you’re all familiar with Roansy, and I’ll go ahead and expect he’s going to start on Tuesday until the team says otherwise. Yerry was a guy myself and Craig were kind of surprised wasn’t protected from Rule Five in 2021, and beside ourselves wasn’t protected for this year’s. Fortunately none of that mattered, and he and his mid 90’s fastball will make his debut this week for the club.

So we have some moves that will need to be made. 2 guys have to go from the active roster, and one guy will need removed from the 40-man to make a spot for Yerry who this year in AAA did this, 12 games, 2-0, 1.72 ERA, 3 SV, 15.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 20 SO, 0.64 WHIP. David Bednar needs help, can’t just keep sending him out there for 6 out saves all season.

The casualty of the 26-man is Bryse Wilson, using his last option, is being sent to AAA, and anyone who’s bothered to watch him pitch this year has spoken to how out of shape he seemed heading into Spring. Then the results were even worse than that, well deserved in my mind and hopefully they can figure something out with him. Kevin Newman who suffered a bit of a setback with his hamstring injury was transferred to the 60-day IL to make room for Yerry and sigh, ok.

We might not know about who goes for Roansy until tomorrow. I’ll say this, pay attention to who pitches tonight. If Heath Hembree is called on don’t be shocked if it’s the last time, he has no options. It could also wind up being a bat, but with the moves that need to happen on the 31st of May to trim down the pitching staff, that might be short sighted. We’ll see, I’d rather have these two than anyone who goes most likely, but that’s not to say they can’t screw this up.

2. Things I Can’t Understand

Don’t get me wrong, I’m more than happy to see the Pirates give Rodolfo Castro every opportunity to stick at SS and play every single day since his call up. That said, man it raises some questions. First of all, he hasn’t been good since his call up on both sides of the ball. And I personally don’t care, that happens with youth, I’m actually really pleased to see them not allow his early performance to shake their initial goal to let him get a shot, it’s similar to how they’ve handled Jack Suwinski, who has also not really performed super well. He’s shown some pop, and the glove is really good but all in all, he’s just been meh.

So if those two can get nearly without interruption looks, again as I feel they should, why not Diego Castillo? Why not Michael Chavis? For that matter, if Castro and Suwinski can play stretches of up to 10 games in a row, why can’t Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes?

We’ve already established it’s not about performance. It’s not some Huntington guy vs Cherington guy thing either, which is silly on it’s face but I still see it yapped about by some of the bigger idiots out there. As most of you know 3 of those guys are Cherington additions, but Castro is of course not.

It’s not about right or wrong, I just want to understand why it’s ok for some, but not others to actually get a solid shot where they don’t have to dance around the field looking for different gloves.

I mean, I’ll laugh out loud if you wanna tell me someone was blocked somewhere. Yoshi Tsutsugo has done next to nothing and Chavis has raked. Castillo has consistently given good at bats and played well defensively everywhere they put him, certainly can’t say Castro has, yet he gets a consistent position and opportunity.

Again, don’t take this too far, I’m happy to see anyone get treated in the way I personally think is best for youngsters, I just don’t understand it.

I mean, Castro isn’t even a proven commodity at SS from his minor league journey, so I can’t sit here and say he showed something special there in the minors. I won’t even say I can’t see it working, it’s just another one of those things this team does that seem to willingly defy the methodology they use on others and the reasoning they tend to give the fans through the media.

Ask why Hayes needs to sit so often and they’ll tell you they are trying to keep him healthy, so are we in turn saying we don’t care if Castro dies on the field? I mean, like, is that actually how dire rest is anyway? I’m being extreme to point out how important they seem to think it is for certain players and not others.

It’s things like this that make you wonder less about if the plan is good, but instead is there a plan.

3. If Oscar is the Guy, He Best Show it, and Soon

Oscar Marin came to town with an excellent reputation. A fast riser through coaching circles and a propensity for understanding analytics and implementing their usage into a pitching plan was his hallmark.

Thing is, Oscar lacks one very important thing, a track record of having all his swell ideas and concepts work. At least when he was the one in charge of their implementation.

Listen, I’m gonna beat this dude up a bit here so let me take a minute to build a bit of a haystack for him to land in. He’s impressive to talk to, and his ideas sound terrific when he lays them out. I’ve heard from Derek Shelton that he is a great instructor and one of the hardest workers on the staff.

OK, that’s what I got, hope it’s cushiony enough Oscar.

All that fluff from Derek Shelton might mean something if he himself had a track record outside of the Pirates organization. I only have two coach firings to base anything Derek does on. Joey Cora and Rick Eckstein. Toward the end of Eckstein’s time here, Derek started popping up sticking his fingers in the pie during batting practice and started openly talking about things from a hitting perspective “they” were working on instead of Rick and his group, which was the go to. Joey had some of his sends openly criticized toward the end, but they were also careful to give him credit for defensive improvement, something I think we’re kinda seeing was important.

I can’t say I’ve seen any of that with Marin yet, so this isn’t a prediction of what Pirates management will do as much as my own personal thoughts on the subject.

I’ve asked this question for the best part of a year at least, Who has Oscar Marin made better?

Quick answers will be Bednar and Crowe. I’ll tell you what, before I argue those out, I’ll actually throw the dude a bone and give him Clay Holmes. Bednar showed up here like this, so I’ll give him credit for not having him regress. Crowe, man, I really just think it was a role change. We wrote it here repeatedly last season that Crowe in the bullpen could be great. With that pitch mix pared down to his absolute best and an ability to throw harder not trying to last 6 innings, it could really open up for him. The rest is just him. He’s the one who developed a reliever’s mentality, and started working really fast. He’s the one who cuts bait on whatever pitch he doesn’t have that day.

Clay if you really think back had figured it out before he got shipped. His last outing in San Francisco was just electric. But I give him to Marin because Holmes who was DFA’d re-signed in Pittsburgh to an MiLB deal specifically because he liked what he was doing with Marin.

That’s not enough.

Chad Kuhl refused to happily go to the bullpen and didn’t want to alter his pitch repertoire. His early season in Colorado is showing at least so far he was right.

Mitch Keller has come to camp two straight years looking better than he ended the previous season after working independently with outside coaching. Two straight years he’s shown those improvements in the early Spring. And Two straight years he’s regressed heavily as soon as the team started “coaching him up”.

Hey, maybe he just sucks. Maybe most of the pitchers do.

Should we say Quintana has had his career brought back to life by Marin, or do we maybe assume much like Anderson last year they were too old to get confused by some coach who they just blew off?

Either way I’ll leave it here. You don’t do ALL of this. All the trades, all the drafting, all the scouting, all the get better at baseball camps, grabbing another expert from Tampa and risk it on an unproven up and comer. If you are so foolish as to have done that anyway, you best not live with your mistake too long.

Eventually those kids are all going to be up here, if you have the wrong guy, believe what you’re seeing now, not after he’s helped you waste the next Mitch Keller or Chad Kuhl, or Miguel Yajure, or Roansy Contreras. See what is being painted Pirates, because with the moves you just made, the future is now.

4. All Aboard the Cherington is Tone Deaf Train!

There are ways to tell a fan base that you support your coaching staff without coming across like things are humming along swimmingly. Mr. Cherington has not been given that advice it would seem.

First, he avoided availability with the media this week and his only comments came from team employee Greg Brown playing the rule of hard news hound to the best of his ability in between his patented pressed laughter. To his credit, the questions weren’t the problem, they weren’t soft balls per se, but certainly if this exchange played out in front of a real journo, you’d expect a bit of push back.

Greg Brown on 93.7 the Fan Are you seeing tangible evidence of these improvements at the big-league level? We’re at the quarter pole now, Ben, just about 40 games in. And you’ve talked a lot about the most important thing, winning games, certainly at the big-league level. What areas are you seeing improvements in and where do you think the team still has work to do?

CHERINGTON: We do see progress. We certainly have a lot of work to do to get better. That’ll never stop. But we are seeing real progress in specific areas this year.

“I think I’d start with, on a team level, just how we are making decisions. How we are preparing for games and making decisions inside the games. You can call it deployment. You can call it whatever you want. I’m really encouraged by the way we’re making decisions in terms of who’s in the lineup, when the pitcher’s in the game, when the pitcher’s out of the game, the strategy.

Now, if that’s say Jason Mackey or Alex Stumpf, I’d like to think they’d have a pretty good reason for a follow up.

Oh he goes on and on, repeating his premise in different ways and ultimately finishing with their preparation, deployment and in-game strategy, are giving them chances to win games.

Man, what team are you watching Ben?

I’m seeing from a preparation standpoint a bunch of starters who look like they’re just meeting an old friend when they pick up a baseball for a start most nights.

From deployment I’m seeing a power hitting first baseman not hit, not field while his backup who doesn’t play nearly as much hits for power and fields. I’m seeing a couple rookies get shots and a couple get benched. I’m seeing Josh VanMeter look like he’s talking himself into not changing careers while at the plate, yet continue to start over Michael Chavis or Diego Castillo. And I’m not even talking about all the guys who we should be wanting to get eyes on in the minors like Bae, Martin, Cruz, or Mitchell. Yeah, deployment.

How about in-game strategy? This team is a one trick pony when it comes to in-game strategy in order to win a ballgame and his name is David Bednar. If they think they can hunt a win, he’s involved. Either giving you 3 or 6 outs, and the most dangerous hitters regardless. That’s great, well the dangerous hitter part anyway, but that’s all I got. Where’s this other in-game stuff he’s seeing?

I could accept something like Look, we have good players on the way, I didn’t want to block them and here we are. But I can’t accept it’s all good, I’m encouraged. I can’t accept good deployment starts Josh VanMeter and Yoshi Tsutsugo over Chavis and Castillo. Not most nights.

I like and believe in the larger plan, but I don’t like or buy into the on field implementation of said plan. I really haven’t liked. If you want to tell me this is going to get better cool, but if you tell me THIS is ok or even something to be proud of, I mean, c’mon, how am I supposed to not laugh in your face?

This team is what I expected, and I stand by saying it’ll be better by the end of the year than it was in April, but I don’t think we need lied to on the way there. All that’ll create is yet another high ranking figure in the management of this franchise that fans don’t trust.

This fool out here telling you to eat the lemon flavored snow is going to do nothing to endear him to the base. The ones who are left can handle and in fact would appreciate honesty.

Either way, stop blaming Derek Shelton, he’s clearly doing everything right according to his GM, and friends, if a boss says that, you just keep doing it don’t you?

5. Run Differential Says They’re Lucky to Be Where They Are

I’ll let my boy Jim Stamm lead this puppy off.

Now, when you get beat 21-0 early in the season and you don’t score a ton of runs chances are you’ll be chasing this rabbit all season and never catch it.

Here’s the thing, it also points to something we’ve probably taken for granted because of the smoldering pooh fire surrounding them, this bullpen has won this team games. Oh I know not every member is lights out, I know some of them have been asked to open, I know David Bednar is being asked to do too much too many nights, but I also know, they’ve stepped up and been money in a bunch of close games.

If you’re looking for hope that the team is just underperforming and it’ll improve, well, you have this number partially created while Bryan Reynolds was in a 2020 like slump, Yoshi hasn’t hit and I guess you could hope he either does or they finally give his at bats to Chavis. Eventually Cruz is going to get up here and you’d hope that at least creates a few more runs. Sure, a rookie that’s here or gets called up not named Cruz could also help, but largely, there just isn’t much coming that’s going to fix -88 in 40 ish games.

Now does it matter? I mean it’s after all a stat from the past, and even if the stat suggests they should only have won 11 contests, the fact remains they’ve won 16. This is no different than a guy who’s hitting .200 having a hot week where he rakes at a .444 clip. Just because a stat says it shouldn’t happen, certainly doesn’t mean it can’t.

Tangibly though, here’s where it shows up. The pitchers for the most part have to look at the daily results that lead up to that number and understand, we can’t make many mistakes. Any professional athlete will tell you if you’re trying to not get hurt or trying to not make mistakes, you’re going to wind up in a body cast with 13 walks.

The starting pitching as a group has been a huge part of this issue and story, but teams are allowed to outscore their opponents sometimes too. I know they know, it happens to them 4 or 5 times a week.

I could also argue, this horrific run differential is actually better than it should be, given the contributions of players they can’t have possibly fathomed providing much. Vogelbach and Ben Gamel have arguably been the most consistent hitters not named Hayes. Heck I’ll even toss in one legged catcher Roberto Perez.

The last point I’ll make here is the Reds earned second to last by beating up the Pirates, this is deserved.

It’s bad, and it won’t get better with this group. Good thing as much as 60% of the opening day roster will either be on someone else’s or in the minors come 2023.

Happy Monday Folks! And enjoy Roansy and Yerry, those are two good ones.

Pirates Pitching Will Ultimately Decide How All This Works

5-19-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Now, that’s probably a true statement for every team in baseball right? Can’t pitch, probably aren’t going to win a whole bunch. That being understood, we probably should look at how the franchise is handling this important facet of the game all throughout the minors and dig in on the methodology.

When fans complain about how this team uses the pitchers at the MLB level, specifically preventing them from going deep into games on the rare occasions they look capable, the common returned narrative is that this ethos will change when the Pirates get more “capable” starters up in Pittsburgh. I’m not so sure.

The Dewey Effect

First thing most fans point to is the Dewey Robinson hire to explain the Pirates seemingly sudden desire to have the roles of 90% of the pitching staff be undefined, but that’s simply not what was done in Tampa. Yes they had an overriding philosophy that most starters seeing a lineup 3 times through isn’t a great idea. It’s also true that the Rays like to sprinkle in an “opener” on occasion.

Last year the average Rays start was in the mid 70’s, the league average rested in the mid 80’s. That led to a typical start being over before or right at 5 innings.

The effectiveness of the starter doesn’t matter. The number of pitches doesn’t matter.

Now, Dewey is a pitching instructor, he didn’t come here with a secret sauce to make this all work, and he certainly didn’t come here with widely available information about what the Rays system looks like, point being, nobody needed Dewey to come here and describe what’s publicly out there already. He’s an older guy who has allowed himself to not only adopt some analytics based focus but lead on it, that’s why his hire was important, but as far as I’ve heard, there is no desire to mirror the Tampa system entirely, even if it sure feels and looks that way. Which certainly could mean, they absolutely plan to copy what they do, but don’t want to say it out loud or at least give you the expectation that the results will match too.

Don’t forget, Dewey himself during a Spring Training interview said “talent is the secret”.

Why Can Quintana or Anderson Go Deep Then?

See that’s the thing, we can talk about the Pirates implementing this strict system but the last two veteran arms they’ve brought in, Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana, clearly get a longer leash.

So this leads one to ask, is it because they’re experienced? If the answer to that is yes, I’d have to follow that up with, well clearly you value that, how do you expect to ever cultivate more of that from your own system if you refuse to let them try to do so?

The other thought is, could it be as simple as not caring about their health as much because they aren’t in the long term plans? I mean, that’s a really crappy thing to think but they were clearly fine with Anderson and Quintana pushing more chips in the pile.

Now, to their credit, both of those pitchers, and it’s incredibly early to act like it’s a sure fire lasting thing with Q, have shown they were capable of it. They grew up being pitchers who probably felt they failed if they didn’t at least reach the 7th too, but man you just can’t sit here and tell me the Pirates are doing everything they do based on analytics yet continue to show me it only applies to guys not here on a 1 year show me contract.

What is the Opener or Piggyback Achieving?

I mean, I don’t really know.

The opener was something that when originally implemented caused the opposing manager to scramble and at times redo the lineup. Now, teams caught on rather quickly that it was preferable to just deal with less than optimal matchups for an inning or two than to wholesale change your own plan when a team chose to do this.

Today it’s seen as a way to simply never let a lineup settle in. You may reach the 5th or 6th inning before you as a hitter have seen the same pitcher twice if everything goes right.

Does it work? Well, sometimes, but I guess it depends on what your idea of ‘work’ is.

Last night the Pirates implemented an opener. Wil Crowe went 2 innings and gave up a run. Mitch Keller (the ‘starter’ supposedly benefitting from the opener) went only 2.2 innings and also gave up a run.

Duane Underwood went’ 2.1 innings you know, more than the opener did. And David Bednar closed out the game with 2 innings of work.

Like it or don’t, this is where many analytics wonks see baseball headed. I’m just not sure how this helps anyone. You’ve taken Crowe out of the mix for the bullpen where he’s really thrived. Diminished your supposed starter to little more than a middle relief guy, which ok, I can get behind if you choose that path with him. Forced a guy criminally overused last season to go 2.1 innings a week removed from returning from injury and finally continue to beat the hell out of your unquestioned best bullpen asset David Bednar.

I don’t see enough there to pretend it’s working, or helping. And I say that after it netted a 3-2 win.

What are Fans or Players to Think?

We spent the first month of the season crying and laughing that no Pirates starting pitcher had a win until recently, but it was hardly just poor performance that created it. The implementation of this near perpetual avoidance of seeing a lineup more than twice has created a system that rarely allows a starter to complete 5 innings.

When the game is over, fans still say ‘well, Thompson sucks he can’t even get through 5!’ and how can you argue? Fans don’t really by in large care that he only threw 67 pitches when he was pulled.

The Win stat means very little in modern baseball, and this methodology directly created it.

Part of the magic of going to a baseball game is knowing that every single night could be a no hitter, or a dominant shutout complete game. Well sincerely, do you feel that way when you go anymore? For either side too, not just the Pirates. You simply can’t expect it’s even plausible to think you’ll see something like that anymore.

Will you as a baseball fan trade that aspect of the game for winning more games if that’s how it shakes out when they have enough horses or will you always be at least a little disappointed that your starter simply isn’t going to rack up wins or innings? It’s a question the Pirates are forcing you to answer, and increasingly a question MLB fans in general will have to grapple with.

I guess MLB could examine how the Win stat is decided, or perhaps even eliminate it all together, but the history of baseball and how it ties to modern baseball makes that difficult. Let’s say Michael Burrows comes up here and is just everything you’d want in a starter, but the team does what it does and he rarely sees the 6th or 7th inning. He pitches for 10 years in Pittsburgh and never has more than 10 wins but aside from that, total stud. How does he ever compete with history? How is he ever “GOAT”? He can’t even eclipse Randy Tomlin’s win total so how can you sit there and tell me he’s better?

Make no mistake, this changes the game.

I bet it changes the salaries too folks. I mean how many 300 million dollar starting pitchers will there be? Adjust for inflation obviously but how many guys are going to get that kind of mega deal if they’re pitching 5 or 6 innings once a week? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have 7 Wil Crowe types at like 6 million a year? I wonder if the players will remain as passive about all this as they’ve been when it starts punching them in the pocket book.

Or will free agents gravitate to teams that don’t do this? Some openly thought it was reckless to allow Hunter Greene to throw 118 pitches in his no-hit bid the other day, but man if I’m a starting pitcher on the market, I’d rather know if I’m performing I can achieve than know I’m not going to get the chance regardless.

I’ve talked to veteran pitchers, to a man, they hate how this has all evolved, even if they understand it. I’ve also talked to young pitchers and almost universally they claim that getting deep into games is still on the table but they understand why they get yanked so early.

Maybe that’s just not speaking ill of your employer, maybe it’s just a generational thing too, but if the players don’t put up a stink, don’t expect the WIN to survive the decade, at least not in it’s current form.

I mean the first player who sits down at an arbitration table and hears “well, you only had 4 quality starts last year Jim” knowing they got yanked with like 58 pitches 5 or 6 times might just flip the table over.

One Thing is Abundantly Clear….

We should probably all look at how the Pirates (and the vast majority of the league for that matter) are handling starting pitching all through the system and realize this is the plan.

Not cultivating 18 game winners, or dominant starters who eat the majority of every contest they enter, instead a collection of long men where the time they show up in a contest is really just a suggestion.

Instead of looking for a 5 man rotation that just shoves, it’s more like a 7 or 8 man mix that together push most contests to the 6th where the back end guys take over.

All of this probably still means, if you win, we won’t care, if you don’t, we won’t care about you or worse we’ll just label you incompetent.

Top 15 Prospect Update

5-18-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

Another week down. A few positive signs here, if we look hard enough. And a few disappointments. Let’s get to it.

1-Oneil Cruz

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.167/.310.292.602.125.2907217.2%27.6%
Season.185/.302/.328.630.143.2947512.9%%27.3%

2-Henry Davis

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.200/.500/.8001.300.600.53724312.5%%0%
AA.200/.500/.8001.300.600.53724312.5%%0%
A+.341/.450/.5851.035.244.4621798%18%

3-Roansy Contreras

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%k%
week4.16.236.681.1517.6%23.5%
AAA14.22.454.541.1616.7%33.3%
MLB7.23.523.732.890.919.7%32.3%

4-Liover Peguero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
Week.280/.308/.440.741.160.3301063.8%23.1%
Season.322/.352/.525.877.201.3841424.8%20%

5-Quinn Priester-no stats yet

6-Nick Gonzales

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
week.316/.364/.316.679.000.3149689.1%40.9%
season.212/.341/.308.649.096.3109314.3%36.5%

7-Endy Rodriguez

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWR+BB%K%
week.429/.500/.5711.071.143.4891966.3%12.5%
season.283/.361/.500.861.217.3871318.4%26.9%

8-Matt Fraizer

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.261/.292/.435.726.174.319994.2%29.2%
season.176/.212/.278.490.102.222353.2%31.9%

9-Jared Jones

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week2.123.147.313.865.9%23.5%
season23.26.855.914.001.5211.3%34%

10-Bubba Chandler No stats

11-Ji-hwan Bae

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
week.304/.414/.478.892.174.39514017.2%10.3%
season.270/.357/.423.780.153.35111212.4%17.8%

12-Michael Burrows

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week49.005.712.0010%25%
season30.22.352.683.800.987.3%32.5%

13-Travis Swaggerty

*wishes he only had 1 AB last week*

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.000/.125/.000.125.000.091-5612.5%87.5%
season.174/.269/.232.501.058.2444311.4%36.7%

14-Miguel Yajure

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week0.227.0037.957.5057.1%14.3
AAA2.26.758.324.062.2528.6%%42.9%
MLB10.111.325.896.672.1311.3%7.5%

15-Anthony Solometo- No stats

MY FIVE

16-Kyle Nicolas

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
week51.803.660.8015.8%21.1%
season24.23.654.364.191.018.2%27.6%

17-Maikol Escotto

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.063/.167/..063.229000.136-285.6%33.3%
season.206/.267/.412.679.206304795.7%32.4%

18-Mason Martin

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.217/.357/.435.792.217.135911717.9%32.1%
season.246.316/.525.841.280.3601188.3%32.3%

19- Hudson Head

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.316/.381/.421.802.105.3711219.5%47.6%
season.266/.375/.426.801.160.37012110.7%36.6%

20-Connor Scott

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
week.214/.267/.214.481.000.230406.7%26.7%
season.276/.344/.391.735.115.3351098.2%21.4%

A Few quick thoughts-

I know it sounds funny, BUT…

Mason Martin, Oneil Cruz and Matt Fraizer all had decent weeks if you squint hard enough. I get that Cruz OPS was not good and the BA wasn’t good either. But his OPB was decent due to a good walk rate of 17% and his ISO was a decent enough at .125. He’s shrinking his zone and that’s a good step.

Mason Martin had a really nice week despite the .217 BA. Like Cruz his walk rate was terrific(17.9%), another good example of shrinking that strike zone. But unlike Cruz his numbers, outside of BA, were terrific. Look past that .217 and his OBP was .357, I’ll take that every week! His OPS remained close to 800 coming in at .792. Mason made much needed adjustments and I can’t wait to see how this week shakes out for him.

Matt Fraizer, man I will take any positive momentum for the kid and finally we get a heartbeat! He’s still on life support as the .261/.292 is nothing to hang his hat on, I get that. But it’s nice to see something, anything, he can build on.

Failure to Launch

I hate typing this BUT Jared Jones has hit a snag. He’s young so it’s by means time to panic, but he’s got some things to work on for sure.

Must be something in the pitcher’s water because Burrows had his roughest outing as well, though he did settle in a little bit. And I don’t even want to talk about Yajure’s outing.

Steady as she goes

Ji-hwan Bae’s good start to the year continued. His bat has been as steady as can be.

Kyle Nicolas’s breakout season is also intact. Outside of one rough go Kyle has been terrific. A reminder, I did NOT like the Jacob Stallings trade return and Kyle has shut me up every time he’s been given the ball.

Hudson Head still has a K rate that absolutely needs to be better. But the stick continues to play at A+. He continues to show he can get on base, .375 on the young season and when he hits the ball he hits it hard, OPS coming in at .801.

Anne are you OK?

Does Travis Swaggerty even have a heartbeat? It’s like the baseball version of Weekend at Bernie’s. I feel for the guy, but the Bucs have to be considering demoting him? Right?