The Pirates Forecast: Partially Stupid with a Chance of Idiocy

3-23-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Bryan Reynolds and the Pirates are headed to arbitration.

Every team has their own process for arbitration, and the Pirates system has both sides submit a blind number and guarantees unless a multi-year deal is reached they’ll head to the negotiating table where Bryan will get to hear a team representative likely talk about 2020 as though it was more than a blip in an otherwise stellar career. They’ll talk about some obscure metric that means X or point to a comp player who makes Y, and more than anything, they’ll probably piss him off but good.

They could of course avoid this pissing match over $650.000 dollars, by pursuing and agreeing to a multi-year deal, but it sure doesn’t look like the Pirates have made it the clear priority it should be.

This morning the reporters did their job and asked Bryan about having talked with the club about an extension.

Now, Alex didn’t stop there, he pressed Bryan on what we’re all really concerned most about and to nobody’s surprise Reynolds took the high road.

Hey, good for the kid, as much as some little birdies have told me he hates talking about any of this, he handles it like a seasoned veteran. I’ll never call him a liar, but I will say it’s one thing to know this is part of the game and another to actually go through it.

Neil Walker actually told me a story once about how it was brought up in arbitration that because he was so involved in Pirates community outreach programs (you know, cause the Pirates asked him to be) he wasn’t focused enough on his game.

I mean he’s human, so the more he’s asked about this stuff, as the Pirates have ensured will happen now due to their own slow footing of any kind of approach, he’s bound to start changing tone. In fact here’s another version of the same answer to a different reporter.

You can already taste the frustration that he is answering questions like this instead of how he’s worked to do even better recognizing breaking pitches this season.

That’s Bryan, and I’m not going to go much farther on how this process will or could make him feel, trust me as this goes on you’ll watch the responses evolve all by yourselves, but we need to talk about what this says to fans.

The roster is bottomed out. The payroll is somewhere in the 35 million to 40 million dollar range.

If Bryan Reynolds isn’t part of the “core” that’s going to win or at least go for winning, who is? The excuse people love to toss around of “he doesn’t want to sign here” we hear every free agency period doesn’t apply, this dude has said multiple times now he wants to be here, wants to win here.

As someone covering this process, it’s pretty clear this team has enough talent coming to at least look like a high probability exists that this team is going to be pretty good in the middle of this decade. If Reynolds isn’t part of that, I’m not sure how I can believe Hayes is either. If this team thinks they’re now the Rays and can trade everyone and anyone at peak value, I’d argue first that they aren’t the Rays, and second this market won’t support that methodology. This city likes their stars. Before you try to rub Wander Franco in my face, realize the Rays will absolutely trade him too, regardless of the contract he signed.

Reynolds would be no different. If they signed him through 2029, he’ll be moved in 2027 or 2028 unless the team is literally right there in the conversation and even then, I’d be shocked.

Much of the complaint about the payroll is irrational, I’ve said this for 2 years now, it was always going to bottom out. Arbitration alone over the next several years will raise the payroll considerably, but as I mentioned earlier, this isn’t St. Pete, this fan base wants to know WHO will help them win almost as much as WHEN or IF.

I’d love to be wrong here. I’d love the Pirates to shock us all and sit down to discuss something before they hit this process. Both sides have said they want to do it, but this isn’t on Bryan to approach them with an offer, that duty is squarely on the shoulders of the team itself.

Yesterday on the broadcast Tarrik Brock the Pirates First Base and Outfield coach mentioned how much he had leaned on Bryan Reynolds as the leader on this team to help push others to improve. Ben Cherington in the booth said what an incredible leader he is on an off the field. All the while in the background the Pirates were actively choosing to make sure he knew just how valuable they thought that was, by pinching relative pennies.

When you aren’t selling a good product currently, you at least have to sell hope. Allowing $650 K to create a potential chasm between you and your best player doesn’t exactly instill that in the fan base does it? Put as bluntly as possible, Bryan himself who’s camp asked for 4.9 million, didn’t go far enough. Even if only symbolic, I’d ensure he makes more than Roberto Perez at 5 Million. That to me would put forward the message, we know what we have, we want to work with you and we want the fans to know that too.

Baseball is a business, nobody disputes that, and nobody believes the financial realities of this business favor every team equally, but if the Pirates can’t see the benefit of avoiding this process, selling hope isn’t just impossible, it’s idiocy.

Pirates Make First Cuts, Roster Taking Shape

3-22-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Seems quick doesn’t it? Well, with only 18 games this Spring before heading North, the sense of urgency to get at bats for guys that really are locks and or have a good chance to make the roster is real.

I mean, there it is.

Travis Swaggerty is by far the weirdest one. As I wrote yesterday in the Five Pirates Thoughts at Five, the fact Swaggerty hasn’t played and nobody knows why is weird.

It’s such a Pirates thing. The most likely thing is Swaggerty hasn’t played much competitive baseball since 2019 and they wanted to work with him on the side. By not telling us, or reporters, you of course start wondering and worrying.

There was a bit of rumored frustration last season that Travis might have felt physically ready last season but the team didn’t agree. Being that our own Ethan Smith interviewed the young man and was given assurance that he is ready to rock, it has to be either that the Pirates don’t agree, or they think he needs some time yet before facing live pitching.

As for everyone else, Bae, Bolton, Burrows, Henry Davis, Florencio, Fraizer, Gonzales, Nicolas, Mlodzinski, Priester, Thomas and Triolo, well, they all come down to the obvious. They aren’t going to make this team this year, and the compacted schedule doesn’t allow for stealing much more time from those who will and could.

Let’s revisit the list of folks we started with at least when it comes to minor leaguers.

Out of those NRI players we still have Aldred, Bins, Taylor Davis, De Los Santos, Eickhoff, Madris, Martin, Mejia, Mitchell, Owen, Perez, Ritchie, Rodriguez, Stratton, Sulser, and Weiman.

Out of those, should they sign nobody or trade for anyone, one of Carter Bins, Taylor Davis, Jamie Ritchie, or Michael Perez will wind up being the backup Catcher. I know Endy is technically there, I just don’t see it yet for him especially not in a role that has him sitting around 70% of the time. No matter who they choose, it’s going to require a corresponding 40-man move as they still only have one on the roster.

Aldred, De Los Santos, Eickhoff, Stratton, Sulser and Weiman I believe are all in actual consideration for making the pen but all of them would require a 40-man transaction.

The only other member of this group I could see actually forcing his way to Pittsburgh is Bligh Madris. He hit a homerun this Spring in one of his very few at bats, but he’d need either an injury to Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel, Anthony Alford, or Greg Allen. His other path is simply terrible performance, and if I’m honest that’s only in a direct swap for Alford. Allen is too new to assume he’s got as short a leash as Alford is now on shot number 3 with the Bucs. And so far in his 5 at bats he’s struck out 4 times. Now, this isn’t a great situation, and I’m not going to bother saying they should have signed an Outfielder again. But Alford is one of the few right handed options they have and on top of their seemingly limitless patience with him that might cause them to hold on, at least for a little.

I’m not sure that matters all that much, and maybe Cole Tucker who’s starting in Right Field today can fill that void.

The mound is messier. We know they will eventually have a 13 man limit on the staff but we don’t yet know the roster size on opening day. GMs are supposed to talk to the league about potentially having rosters expanded from 26 to 28 or 29 for the month of April. If that happens it would primarily be for extra pitching so I’m sure that 13 would also go up.

We could know this by the end of the week and then projections will be much easier along with another cut that’s sure to come.

Stay tuned.

Oneil Cruz, Opening Day Pirates SS?

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-mgenu-11dad7a

The new CBA provides a possible benefit to promoting Oneil Cruz at the start of the season to the Pittsburgh Pirates. It also carries a possible penalty if the team holds him down. It is all risk-reward for Ben Cherington. We break down the scenarios and explain why it all comes down to money, history and the long-term plan.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

3-21-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Boy was it nice to hear the crack of the bat and see some of these guys do their thing on the diamond again this weekend. Baseball has not solved it’s problems but the game itself is still beautiful to watch. It’s incredible how quickly you can slip right back into the enjoyment of watching a ballgame and forgetting about who’s ready and who isn’t, and focus on just enjoying watching guys compete.

Let’s dig in and talk some ball.

1. Where is Travis Swaggerty?

We’ve seen every outfielder in camp with the exception of Travis Swaggerty. He could be just working on something on the backfields, he could be less than 100%. I asked Alex Stumpf the beat writer for DK Pittsburgh Sports and he said “Haven’t heard anything to suggest he couldn’t be in these games”.

Now, this doesn’t mean anything until it does, but seeing as we’ve already watched every single other option get a crack, some a couple, it’s at least a little odd. Swaggerty was supposed to be the closest outfield option in the prospect group and if he’s not that tells me that Ben Cherington was completely fine with Reynolds, Gamel, Alford and Allen and relatively no competition beyond that unless you believe they actually are open to one of the other youngsters winning the gig. I don’t.

To be clear, many of you, me included wanted to see a real MLB level corner outfielder brought in to stem the tide. Doesn’t have to be a big name, didn’t need to be someone who was going to ensure none of the prospects could leapfrog him, but I’m not comfortable with believing Alford is going to suddenly see his potential make it’s mark in MLB. Allen, I can’t say we know yet what he is but with four spots to fill and no clear cut prospect nailed on ready to make the jump, let’s just say I’m less comfortable than my already uncomfortable state.

Again, maybe this is much ado about nothing, but until we know, well, I just don’t know how you can’t be concerned.

2. Watching Tucker Has Been Pretty Cole!

OK, so I know you’ve already written him off, at least most of you. Hell, I had too largely as I happily jumped past him and Kevin Newman right onto the next in line.

Hold up, I’m not here to tell you two spring performances have changed my mind, let’s date a while first here right? The thing is though, we’ve waited a long time to see Tucker well, do anything.

We’ve begged for him to stop swinging with all arms. We’ve wondered why he won’t bulk up a bit. Heck some of us wanted to see the kid cut his damn hair like that has anything to do with it. Well, he’s shown up with a thicker trunk, the legs and posterior look more developed and he’s no longer rocking in the box, really getting his legs into his action and just making a different kind of contact.

It could mean absolutely nothing. It could also mean a whole hell of a lot.

This team needs a leadoff hitter, a second baseman, and desperately need to show this development system can take a talent and turn him into a player. Tucker alone could fill all those needs and even if you’re ready to move on, it’s always better to have players do well. For trades, options, hell even instilling some belief that you’re on the right track with the development system.

Hey, here’s hoping.

3. Kneel Before Zod

At some point covering baseball you come across a player who doesn’t fit into the conventional wisdom box. That’s Oneil Cruz for me.

Conventional wisdom says even if the result is good, you don’t want your power hitting prospect to take swings that force him to one knee, even if the result looks like a two handed jack from Griffey Jr.

Conventional wisdom tells us if we can get an extra year of control by simply waiting for June to call up a top prospect, like it or don’t, you do it.

Oneil Cruz isn’t conventional. He’s 6’7″ playing short stop, and getting to balls isn’t his issue. He swings at crap he should spit on and sends it 425 feet. His release is too slow for a middle infielder but his 80 grade arm makes it ok.

Point is, nothing about this kid is normal, so perhaps we should stop insisting the Pirates have to handle him in a normal fashion.

For instance, today against the Tampa Rays with a stiff wind blowing in he a crushed one beyond the beachers and onto the roof of a building beyond it. The very next inning he dropped a routine grounder for an error.

It’s going to be tough deciding that bat shouldn’t be in your lineup everyday, especially as power starved as the Pirates are, and maybe that’s reason enough to do something different. The DH gives them options here, and no, signing Vogelbach doesn’t matter for this conversation. If he has nothing left to learn in AAA, take a chance at letting the kid do his thing. Show the fans what your system is producing. Make him a living museum exhibit of the Bucs of the future!

Or play it safe, and assume this will just get added to the fans ire and do what you were going to do anyway.

Look folks, they didn’t plan to keep Bryan Reynolds with the MLB club, until he forced them to, it can happen. Now MLB has built in a reward structure for a youngster coming up on day one that returns a draft pick, maybe the traditional calculous has changed.

Either way, let’s let the Pirates screw this one up before we start acting like they already did.

4. Young Pitching has Impressed Largely

Everyone knows Roansy Contreras, and man he didn’t disappoint. After walking the leadoff hitter on 7 pitches, he took care of the side with 13 total, hitting 97-98 on the gun and looking every bit the electric arm we saw last season.

Ok, how about Adrian Florencio? Ever even heard of him? OK, he was the Pirates pitcher of the year last season for the Bradenton Marauders and posted a 2.46 ERA in 95 innings with a 1.053 WHIP. WOW. And wow was all I could say when I saw him take the mound this Spring. He was dominant. Fastball was cooking and the breaking stuff was electric, more than that it was right where he wanted it.

He’ll move to Greensboro this season, but I wouldn’t bet he’s there long, he’s 23 and looks built like a 5 year MLB veteran. From relative obscurity due to the timing of the 2020 lost season to what we just saw this Spring man it’s great to see. Super excited to see how he handles the promotion, and nice to see the Dominican Academy still churning talent.

Want one more? OK, how about Kyle Nicolas. That’s right, one third of the return from the Marlins for Jacob Stallings. Now, don’t hate him because you had to lose Jake to get him, this kid’s no joke. In fact if the Pirates decide he’s a reliever he could be here as early as this year. Leave him at starter and we’ll be talking about him next year as an option to crack the squad.

The stuff is simply electric and he bends knees like Oneil with a bat. Thompson could be good, Scott could be alright, but if this Stallings deal is a winner Nicolas will be the reason. It’s been one outing for the young man, but impressive doesn’t begin to cover it. Hitters didn’t even know what to make of his off speed stuff and the tunnelling at this stage is advanced. Eyes open, he should make AAA this year.

One thing about pitching, you can NEVER have enough.

5. Reynolds isn’t Getting Cheaper

All Reynolds has done this Spring is hit. Consistency, power, speed, man he’s got it all. This team needs a PR win and more importantly they need to actually win, extending Reynolds solves both problems. If they try and don’t get it done, hey it takes two to tango, if they don’t try, well, I’m not sure how you excuse it.

Facts are facts and I don’t need to be psychic to know one day the Pittsburgh Pirates will trade Bryan Reynolds, but if this guy doesn’t factor into whatever window you think you’re opening, I don’t know how you sell that. He’s everything you hope for in a player, and while the development system certainly will provide more players, nobody at this stage of a build should be looking for trading diamonds for coal, even if the composition is the same.

I’m a firm believer that when you go into something like this, one or two guys need to wind up being your foot in the dirt. For the White Sox it was Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu. For the Braves it was Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson. For every team remaking itself someone is the guy. That point where you signal to the team, the fans and the league that the dark days might not be over, but you’re now climbing instead of descending.

Rational or not, this fan base isn’t going to relax until they believe this club is going to keep talent, so why not start with the best.

Get. It. Done.

Pirates Rebuild Fatigue – We’ve Been Here Before

3-20-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Before I get started here, I don’t mean Ben Cherington and crew. They decided in 2020 the path they were taking this team on and knew right then they were about to tick a whole hell of a lot of you off. Before COVID happened they assumed they’d lose most of their gate revenue and certainly knew the vast majority of you would just parrot the utter crap floated by 70% of the media and fake media alike.

It doesn’t have to be like this, the team could spend more money along the path to put lipstick on the pig but you can’t tell a GM to execute his plan, his way, then tell him how to do it.

What puzzles me most is simply this, we knew what they were doing, many of us endorsed it, so why are we so surprised to see it? Why did we get to the point where the first wave of talent brought in or developed was just about ready to come up to suddenly believe the plan isn’t working?

I call it rebuild fatigue.

It comes in many forms. Sometimes it’s an out of frustration call for all the kids to just come up here indiscriminately. Ready or not cause ‘they can’t possibly be worse’. Sound familiar? I’m guilty of this one myself. For instance, I think Mason Martin needs work, but I also think if given a typical workload at first base he could hit 20-25 homeruns, he’d just strikeout a ton and his OBA would suck. Still it’s hard to watch Oneil Cruz golf a homerun out in Spring Training and talk yourself into believing it’s ok he’s swinging at stuff like that routinely.

The payroll being low is a focus for most media, and I get it, it’s certainly critically low. I just wrote yesterday where I could see them spending more and why it does or doesn’t make sense at a given position. I just can’t get up in arms about it, especially when I’m watching much of that next wave play this Spring and actively getting excited to watch them start making their way to PNC this year.

I mean, this is what I said would happen WAY back in 2020. I said back then that by 2022 we’d be starting to see some of the fruit of this rebuild make it’s way to the league and by 2023 we’d see even more ushering in a competitive team. Now, if I was ok with this as a plan in 2020, excited about it even, and I’m literally watching it come to fruition, I’m not sure how I’m supposed to be big mad about it now.

I’ve watched people who were right there with me fall away and now yell about this whole thing not working. All I can really say right now is, NOW you’re upset? Last year I got it, didn’t even say anything about it. There was no help coming. In fact if you ask me, last year was when the Pirates should have spent to make the team more bearable to watch. But now with so much talent right on the doorstep, man no, I’m good. Let me see the kids, unimpeded.

When Oneil Cruz is ready, I’m sorry, the selfish fan in me wants Kevin Newman being who he has to beat. When Jack Suwinski is ready to make a jump, I’m happy to have the landing strip well lit.

Spend money, fine, do it smart if you do, but as I’ve been calling for a plan just like this since like 2017, I’m not really going to call mercy when I’m about to see it start to work.

They’ll have to add to take this thing over the edge, either in 2023 or 2024, that’s just fact. There are no guarantees they will. I can say, this franchise has been in position to “try” once since Bob Nutting has been here as owner, and in that instance, the window from 2012-2015, they spent. Maybe not enough to get it done, but they spent. If this thing works, and they spend again, it’s the best chance we as Pirates fans have.

In no way is this a defence of Nutting, it’s more of a reality check. The plan is the plan, and what many want done right now would be like driving to Virginia Beach and then deciding you’d rather fly the rest of the way to the Outer Banks. Had they spent last year as I suggested, you’d just be making the trip in a nicer vehicle.

Look, you fan however you like. I’m not here to tell you you’re wrong and I’m right. This is my way, but do look up every once in a while to allow yourself to see your Cutch and Walker come up, because they very much so will, and I fear some of you are setting yourselves up to miss it after waiting patiently right when the fun starts.

You’ll like this team more by the end of 2022 than the beginning. I first wrote this line in 2020, and it’s no less true today than it was when I wrote it.

I mean, look, they don’t spend like the teams you envy. But they did spend (at least for them) when the window happened. It’s the ONE window Bob has overseen. I’m not sure why we question if he’ll do it again this time. Maybe just because he’s untrustworthy. Maybe it’s because between failed rebuilds and stunted windows coupled with his punchable face there just isn’t a way to see through it. Most likely it’s because on top of all that we just spent 3 months bitching about money and payroll in this league and it’s clear (as it should have been) the league didn’t fix their issues.

Point is, the talent is coming, and that was the reason for all of what we’ve seen since Starling Marte was moved. If they win, trust me you won’t care how much it cost. MLB reality dictates without it costing they won’t win. Both things can be true.

A Difficult Pirates Payroll Discussion We Just Have to Have

3-19-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates payroll is low, like really low. It rests around 35 million and it’ll by season’s end likely just crest 40. This happens as players come and go, minor league salaries turn into minimum salaries, and this is without a potential extension which would change that number all together, even if only by a couple million.

We don’t need history lessons or timelines to know that’s too low to swallow without talking about. This isn’t going to be making excuses for having a low payroll, as much as talking through it. Because a lot of the discussion tends to be more about hitting some number, I think understanding where money should and could have been spent would go.

Let’s look at Catcher to start because it’s clearly a position that isn’t going to be top notch likely. Roberto Perez comes in making 5 million. Now, that’s about 2.5 more than Jacob Stallings is gonna make this year. We can get into the virtues or lack thereof in the trade another time, I’ve made my feelings clear already there. Point is it’s an I’d say rare situation where the team is actually going to pay more for, hell let’s be nice to Roberto here a bit, the same production. So, this position is an addition to salary. A tiny drop in a tiny bucket.

Third Base is a lock. Ke’Bryan Hayes is going to start, as he should. He’s also going to make the league minimum. Now, I’m quite sure most of you are more than happy with him, even if you still feel he needs to show you something, but I’d bet most of you are pretty good with him being the guy there. So, no need to get an upgrade there. I mean you could certainly argue Kris Bryant would give you more production right? At least now? Well, ok, if you’re still good here we’ll move on.

First Base the Pirates retained Yoshi for 4 million brought in Daniel Vogelbach for 800K and already had other options all of which will make league minimum. It’s also safe to say the top prospect at the position isn’t likely to make a 2022 debut. So clearly while they spent a bit here, and as with catching its a weird spot where they actually spent more than Colin Moran probably would have cost, this still isn’t a safe upgrade to say the least. I mean Yoshi could be quite good here but you can’t say that’s a sure thing.

So you can say this is a spot where they really could have upgraded, or at least spent reasonably for a couple years and that’s even if Mason works out, even longer term might have been ok here, maybe even smart. You guys know all the names out there. Freeman is a laugher, I mean c’mon that was just never ever going to happen. But a Kyle Schwarber might have been a nice play. He manned the position for the Red Sox, looked like he played it well, even if not, you have the DH to fall on now. Hell you still could have brought in Yoshi too. Point is, when you want to have an argument about payroll being low, these are all the things we have to look at. All around the diamond there are different situations. This is one where I think an investment could have really had an impact. Now, if you only care about that number, this would only raise it like 10-14 million.

Middle Infield, I mean what can I say? Newman, Tucker, Castillo, Castro, Chavis, Park and Cruz are all in the mix this year. Can it be better, oh yeah, sure it can. But you have another wave coming that could be ready to compete next Spring like Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Hell Triolo and Bae are on that list.

Now I don’t think all of those are winners but I damn sure want to see a bunch of them get a chance. Even if you are super aggressive as a fan and say you’ve seen enough of Newman, Tucker, Park, hey we’re being really aggressive so let’s add Chavis too. OK, if you do that, yes you could add for this year, maybe next too. Is that how you’d want to play it? Boy I don’t know, I think I’m kinda ok with just leaving it be this year, but I can certainly see why some of you would rather just see something better right now.

Still it’s a tough choice. It’d be hard to get anyone who’s a locked in upgrade without promising years, and I’m not sure it’s worth it in the end. I guess, I’m open to this but all in all, it’s not a position I’d try to upgrade right now.

Outfield it’s clear they have openings. Beyond Bryan Reynolds nobody is a lock. They have a bunch of prospects, but nobody who’s for sure. I see one slot here they could fill that would still leave room to have prospects get their shots. They could surely spend here. 10 even 15 million over a couple years wouldn’t be an issue. I like the prospects but there are 4 spots plus a DH to fill so spending here would be fine. Go get a guy I think we’d all feel a bit better.

Now I guess to be fair you can hold out hope that Alford and Allen contribute, certainly possible, but let’s face it, a team trying to win doesn’t hope at 4 or 5 spots on the diamond.

Starting pitching, always room for more or better. This club has legitimately 11-12 guys who could start, but nobody you can call proven. 5 or 6 who could be really nice pieces, but none who are locks. That’s normal at this stage in a build and while you want to see them all get a shot, buying something steady to lead them makes sense. If you spend money here, I’d want it to be on the top end of the rotation, no need for more low end competition.

Maybe we’ve gotten it to like 70 with all this now and I’d of course go get another arm or two for the pen so let’s say 80.

I don’t know if that’s enough to get in the dance or win a division, I kinda doubt it if I’m honest but purely as a fan, none of this would kill the plan, or destroy the progress of a prospect and it might just be a bit more fun.

I guess the reason for this entire thing is, everytime I see someone sign somewhere next comes a chorus of ‘the Pirates could have signed this guy, but you know why’. And there’s an element of truth to that of course, but there are also legitimate baseball reasons why it’s not always the right fit or need even.

Not all of these prospects are going to work out, that’s just fact, but for a team like this to actually win, they need that group of 15-17 players who are pre-arbitration, making league minimum need to turn over from much of this group to more productive youngsters coming up and augmented with expensive, or at least more expensive veterans.

That’s the hope, and the same old story too. Will Nutting spend when the holes are there and the team is ready? A whole lot of this conversation is really about this. For instance, you don’t really think signing Carlos Correa right now makes this team measurably better as much as you want Nutting and in turn Ben Cherington to show you he’s going to spend. Even if it’s too early and means nothing, you want the message. Even if it’s nothing more than feeling the excitement of for once being the team who got the big get.

That feeling is legit, I’ve felt it too. The last time I felt it was when the Pirates swung a trade for Archer. Hey I remember how it turned out, just being honest, my first and gut reaction was for once we got the big fish.

They could and should spend more money, but let’s at least have conversations about what, and where instead of yelling out some number that makes you feel good.

Bookending Bryan Reynolds

3-18-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement On Twitter)

Over the past few seasons-as a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates-it seems like the majority of information being presented to us is simply a replay, or a recording of media sessions and interviews from the previous year(s). At times the names have changed, but for the most part the answers have remained the same; especially as it pertains to the positions that are spoken for across the dirt and grass at PNC Park come Opening Day.

Prior to the 2021 Season, Jacob Stallings was penciled in as the team’s backstop, Ke’Bryan Hayes would man the hot corner and Bryan Reynolds would patrol the outfield. At the time Reynolds was set to resume his role as the Pirates left fielder; but honestly, an argument could have been made for him to be in centerfield from the jump.

Then, just a few days ago, when Manager Derek Shelton was speaking to the Pirates beat reporters concerning filling in spots on the lineup card, he made the following statement:

“I would say third base and center field are pretty secure but we have competition in the outfield, competition in the middle of the diamond, there’s a ton of competition in our rotation and our bullpen.”

So, Hayes at third and Reynolds in center, with Roberto Perez added in because there really is no competition at the position; or more succinctly put, status quo across the board.

Sure, you could make an argument involving the potential prospects who are on the cusp of making an impact in Pittsburgh; however, until the do-on a consistent basis-it’s hard not to be disappointed by the lack of solutions when it comes to addressing nearly every position on the field for the future.

Subsequently, you might try to point out that the state of the outfield has improved from where it stood on April 1st of last year at Wrigley Field. On the surface, this assertion is not really something I can just balk at. In fact, it’s an element of the rebuild I would like to dive into a little bit more; both with present and future focus.

When the Pirates faced off against the Chicago Cubs to open up the 2021 Season the outfield from left to right was Reynolds, Anthony Alford and Gregory Polanco. As the season progressed we saw Dustin Fowler, Ildemaro Vargas, Troy Stokes, Jr., Phillip Evans, Ka’ai Tom, Jared Oliva and Wilmer Difo all get a shot at locking down a spot in the outfield; eventually landing on a steady dose of Ben Gamel in left, Reynolds in center and a rotation of bodies in right. Which is pretty much where we remain today.

Prior to the lockout being instituted on December 2nd, the Pirates took the opportunity to avoid arbitration with Gamel by signing him to a $1.8 million deal-plus $100K incentives for reaching 450 and 550 plate appearances; in essence cementing his spot in outfield to start 2022.

Now, Gamel is a fine choice if you are looking for a fourth outfielder, or even the third outfielder; presuming the third player in the outfield is putting up offensive and defensive numbers at least somewhat comparable to Reynolds. However, if he is your second best option, chances are the Pirates will continue to struggle.

On the season (aka his time in Pittsburgh), Gamel produced a slash line of .255/.352/.399, an OPS+ of 104 and a wRC+ of 101, while belting 8 homers and 28 total extra base hits in 383 plate appearances. On defense-and in spite of the appearance of better numbers due to some highlight reel grabs-he put up a -8 DRS and -9 OAA; good for a combined .1 WAR and 1.2 fWAR. Nevertheless, when you look at the revolving door from last year, as well as the potential competition to begin the season, a replacement level player-or a slightly above age one-becomes a lock for now; even if he isn’t the long term answer.

Enter Anthony Alford back into the conversation. After getting the Opening Day nod, the former consensus Top 100 prospect in all of baseball proceeded to bat .083 with 16 strikeouts in only 24 official at bats before being designated for assignment.

For the next three months Alford would spend his days as a member of the Indianapolis Indians, slashing .307/.420/.593 with 14 homers; ultimately earning his return to Pirates for the last two months of the season. Over 119 plate appearances he would post a .266 AVG with an .805 OPS and 5 home runs, yet he continued to strikeout at a rate of 35.3%, which clearly remains a major concern; hence the need Greg Allen.

Like Gamel and Alford, Allen found his way to the Pirates via a waiver wire claim. In 594 Major League at bats-across five seasons-he has batted .241 with a .655 OPS; spending 2018-19 as a fairly regular contributor for Cleveland Guardians. Most notably he was part of the Mike Clevinger trade to San Diego, where he logged one official at bat during the shortened 2020 season. Basically he’s another one of Ben Cherington’s dart throws.

Behind these three starts the groupings of prospects; from Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Jack Suwinski and Cal Mitchell-along with Bligh Madris, Jared Olivia and/or Chris Sharpe as potential holdovers-to Matthew Fraizer and Lolo Sanchez, most likely leading the way for the Curve. Further down in the system, other prospects like Hudson Head, Sammy Siani, Jack Herman, Lonnie White, Jr., Rodolfo Nolasco and Shalin Polanco exist.

None of these are clear answers, just like Alford, Allen and Gamel are probably nothing more than place holders.

So yes, it’s possible to say that the outfield is better than it was a year ago. But, it’s also the same outfield that the Pirates ended the season with, which isn’t enough outside of Reynolds. And, although it doesn’t seem like he is going anywhere anytime soon based on reports from Dejan Kovacevic, I can’t imagine a winning team in Pittsburgh without a decent pair of bookends.

One man can’t go it alone.

Kevin Newman: From Top Prospect to Prospect Seat Warmer

3-17-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

First of all, Happy St. Patrick’s Day! I’m a mutt so of course I have some Irish in me.

Kevin Newman is many things to the Pirates.

He’s a first round pick, a terrific defender and notoriously the negative launch angle leader on this club for 3 seasons running. He’s a cautionary tale of believing all the can’t miss you see in a system too.

Unquestionably popular in the clubhouse, Kevin is easy to root for, even if he’s largely become the guy who’s standing there keeping a spot warm for any of a number of guys standing right behind him with their own set of pedigree and “can’t miss” results in the minor leagues.

It’s not like this is new. All through his road to the show Kevin was in a double play combo with another top prospect Kevin Kramer. Newman was supposed to be the superior prospect but Kramer often stole the spotlight with his bat, until he didn’t.

Cole Tucker was supposed to be the next to unseat him, until he got a crack at it and proved he was neither an offensive or defensive upgrade.

Now he has the club’s most exciting offensive talent waiting in the wings in the form of Oneil Cruz and Liover Peguero right behind him. Diego Castillo has caught his share of buzz as well along with a finally blossoming Ji-hwan Bae. I didn’t even mention Ben Cherington’s man crush Tucapita Marcano.

Point is, Kevin Newman has been written off from the time he debuted and rightly so.

See, Kev had a really nice year in 2019 after a disastrous cup of coffee in 2018 that nearly cost him another shot to begin with. In fact his 2018 showing shook the trust the organization had in him so deeply they felt the need to go get Erik Gonzalez from Cleveland heading into the season.

Erik would win the starting job in Spring and an injury to Gonzalez after colliding with Starling Marte would cause Cole Tucker and Bryan Reynolds to be called up on an emergency basis as Newman was himself on the shelf.

Once healthy, he got back in and eventually wrestled the job away from Tucker. He went on to put together a solid rookie campaign hitting .308 with an OPS of .800 with 20 doubles and 12 homeruns.

All that positivity had a couple numbers that to this day hold Newman back. I’ll start with OBP. Even in 2019 with that decent season his OBP was only .353. It’s hard for me to describe how difficult it is to hit .308 and only have an OBP of .353.

Kevin doesn’t strike out much, but he doesn’t walk much either. To give you some perspective, Daniel Vogelbach hit .219 last season with an OBP of .349.

In fact his contact numbers which are legitimately very good, don’t add up to much more than that low strikeout total. In other words, even if he struck out a bit more but it led to more walks Kevin becomes a much more viable player.

As it stands believe it or not he’s a career 2.0 WAR player on a team that doesn’t have many on the plus side so it makes total sense he’s still getting an opportunity this season.

This team desperately needs a leadoff hitter, and while it looks like they were happy with Ke’Bryan Hayes up there, let’s be honest, it would be much better for this team if his bat were in the middle where it belongs. Kevin with his speed could really increase his value if he could only get that OBP where it needs to be.

Thing is, you can’t just cherry pick his one good year and base his work on that. He’s never even cracked .300 for OBP in another single season. In fact you have to go all the way back to 2016 where he split time in High A and AA to see an OBP better than his 2019 at .389.

The point of all this is really to say, Newman isn’t as bad as he get’s portrayed, but he’s also more than an adjustment away from being an answer.

I’m just as guilty of believing he has something else to give as many of you are that he should have been non tendered instead of taken to arbitration.

Chances are, this is the last season we see Kevin Newman at least as a starter here in Pittsburgh, but do let him serve as a reminder that not all prospects reach their ceiling, sometimes they just kinda exist for a while a little above the replacement level while nobody talented enough is there to push them aside.

That time is coming to an end, and it could very well spell the end for Newman’s time here. Even if he puts it together the writing is likely on the wall as is his probable ability to change the discourse in the first place.

Can We Realistically Say the Pirates Won’t be Better in 2022?

3-16-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I mean, I don’t see it.

Sure it could happen, everything that could go wrong certainly could occur.

Instead of improving from last year’s performance everyone could instead take a step back and guys who get their shot could all look like hot garbage. Mitch Keller could throw 100 MPH with no movement and still get lit up like a downtown Christmas tree. Bryan Reynolds could regress I suppose.

See, as you start listing off everything that could go wrong, you have to conversely think about everything that could go right, and the truth is, most of the time they’ll cancel each other out and what’s left is the balance of what talent and your depth got you.

That’s why I worry so much about positions of weakness like catcher, or bullpen, corner outfielder. Even if you like the first wave, you can’t like the depth there, at least not MLB experienced depth.

All that said, it’s hard for me to look at this year’s ballclub as currently constructed and think it seems worse than 2021 and it’s all about the late season graduation of so many prospects to step away status. Maybe I’m just fooling myself a bit here, it’s not like kids often come up and look like they can’t possibly be sent back down after all.

So the team lost Jacob Stallings, Adam Frazier, Colin Moran, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault. Out of those players, Moran played in 99 total games and played to exactly 0.0 WAR, the very definition of a replacement level player. He’s been replaced effectively by Daniel Vogelbach and he too is right around a replacement level player. If healthy, he’s hit some homeruns in his career, but the average leaves quite a bit to be desired. He walks a lot, Colin didn’t but because he hit for higher average their OBA was similar. One makes it look like he’s running in tar paper and the other is overweight but somehow moves. So there’s one guy and that’s largely a wash.

Roberto Perez replaces Jacob Stallings who caught 112 games and won the gold glove. Jake has been a consistent hitter, around .250, a handful of homeruns, decent OBA, all adding up to a 3.0 WAR and he wasn’t going to be a free agent until 2025. Perez plated in 44 games, hit .149 and contributed -0.1 WAR to the cause. He’s had a better singular season than Jake, but that was 3 years ago. Hard to say this isn’t a step back and since they didn’t bother changing the backup, hard to say the position isn’t downgraded.

Adam Frazier split time obviously between Pittsburgh and San Diego, he played 155 games and posted a 4.0 WAR with a .305 batting average. Considering I can’t directly replace him on this roster I’ll say it this way. Take the WAR of Hoy Park, Michael Chavis, Cole Tucker, and Rodolfo Castro and you have -1.5 WAR. Ouch. Yup, hard to say that’s a step forward right?

Before we get to the pitching, I suppose we have to talk about another addition to this mix and that’s Yoshi Tsutsugo. Yoshi played in 81 games split between the Dodgers, Rays and Bucs to a tune of -0.6 WAR and while many will want to just focus on his time with Pittsburgh OK, he was better here. If it comforts you to say he’s trending the right way or even that he figured it out, that’s fine, I’m just going by what’s been, not telling you what is. Even adding him in it’s hard to imagine 1B or DH have the chops to have a 4 or 5 game turnaround in WAR.

Now the pitchers, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault. Chad was a replacement level player last year with a mid 4’s ERA and Steven barely pitched. It’s hard to say who directly replaces them until we see the rotation but let’s assume Zach Thompson Jose Quintana and Bryse Wilson they add up to a+0.2 WAR and most of that is Thompson who himself is 0.9 WAR, Wilson 0.0 and Quintana -0.7. All in all, the rotation scores a net positive in my mind.

Now, I think that shows they haven’t jettisoned enough or brought in enough to say WAR alone dictates they will be better or worse.

If they have anything going for them it’s that these guys are predominantly young so they have room for improvement.

If you really want a reason for optimism this year record wise it really has to be based on the belief that by mid year some of the prospects will start filtering in and improving the club.

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t think the record improves a bunch, at least not right now but I think I feel pretty safe saying we’ll like the look of this club a lot more in September than we will in April or May.

Now for me, this is fun, I love this part where the reinforcements start trickling in and making their marks on the team. We saw it from a few last year, but aside from Castro none that had fans picturing something transformative until the last weekend of the season.

I know some really want the club to invest, and I can and have certainly made that argument as well, but if we finish 2022 thinking you’d like to see more of much of this group it might just wind up being a season we enjoy.

No official prediction today, I need to see this club come together first, but I can honestly say I think the pitching will be better and if they hit at all they’ll win a few more games. It’s also fair to remind yourself that the NL Central isn’t filled with world beaters.

Hey, either way, this is right where I thought they’d be in this process, so I’m not about to act shocked we’re here.

Pirates Baseball (And Mike Persak) Returns!

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-3b6tg-11d25ef

Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette joins us to break down the start of Spring Training for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Who has a shot of making the team? When will we see some of the young prospects get their chance? Will Ben Cherington go after a bigger name in Free Agency? Is the plan working? We discuss it all and jump-start the 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates season.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & all Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!