Pirates Sign Vogelbach and Hembree to One Year Deals

3-15-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates finally got active in the free agent market today, and while these aren’t big names, they certainly fill needs and add real veteran depth.

Daniel Vogelbach (1B/DH)

They’ll list him as an infielder probably but realistically he’s only going to play first base and DH for the club. He’s a very nice compliment to Michael Chavis and Yoshi Tsutsugo with the same skill set even if a bit more tested.

The lefty started his career in Seattle and even made an All Star appearance in 2019 a season that saw him get significant playing time, participating in 144 games and getting 558 at bats he swatted 30 homeruns and his .208 average was mitigated a bit by his 92 walks.

He’d never see that kind of action again topping out with 93 games in Milwaukee last year where he looked to have gotten back to what makes him tick. Hitting the ball hard and racking up walks.

This makes finding a winner for these two spots more likely. Three guys who could all legitimately step in and put one over the fence to fill two spots means extended slumps might be provided some cover.

Vogelbach has signed a one year deal and no, I don’t think it’s a nailed on given that he’s the first baseman. His glove isn’t much better than Yoshi if at all. Both are better than Josh Bell at the position if you need something to compare to.

Heath Hembree

Heath is a veteran reliever who had 83 strikeouts in 58 innings just last season. The 33 year old spent most of his career in Boston (wonder who might have liked him from that time) and his career numbers make him a pretty safe bet to become a nice option in the Pirates pen.

Hembree specializes in killing right handed hitting, holding them to a .181 batting average in 138 at bats last season and typically has kept the ball in the yard, save his half season in Cincinnati last year.

Corresponding Moves

To make room on the 40-man the Pirates placed Blake Cederlind on the 60-day IL which was completely expected as he continues his recovery from TJS, and Nick Mears was also added to the 60-day as he underwent arthroscopic surgery to clean up his elbow a bit from scar tissue.

Pirates Sign Free Agent Following Extended Lockout. Fail To Make Formal Announcement To Avoid Fan Backlash.

Obviously this an overly dramatic interpretation of what actually took place on the first full day after the MLB Lockout was finally lifted; as a new CBA was approved by the MLPA and the league’s owners. Yet, it also seems fairly fitting considering the Pirates propensity to botch even this simplest report of a transaction; from the Gregory Polanco waiver leak fiasco and his eventual DFA to Phillip Evans and Tanner Anderson being released, but letting it be known for over a month.

In the grand scheme of things these types of moves are just blip on Cherington’s resume as Pirates GM. However, when it’s your goal to create a winning environment both on and off the field, it helps to act like you know what you are doing; down to the even smallest details. Which ultimately brings us back to an acquisition the Pirates completed on Friday.

Listed near the top of the Pirates transaction page on their official website-mixed in with the Non-Roster Invitations to Spring Training-is the Free Agent signing of Third Baseman Taylor Davis. Yes, the same Taylor Davis that the was let go on the same day we found out about Evans and Anderson.

Now here’s where all the fun starts.

On the same official website that called the man who has logged 292.1 innings at the position a third baseman-not a catcher (3246.1 innings) or even a first baseman (1107.2 innings)-doubled down and added him to the Pirates 40-Man. In contrast the Pirates Social Media Department indexed him alongside the Non-Roster Invitees to the MLB edition of Spring Training.

Immediately many within the Pirates fanbase began to wonder if Davis was being brought in as Roberto Perez’s backup, or if he was simply a familiar signal caller being used to stretch out the plethora of arms needed for Opening Day; because if you weren’t aware, there is a pretty big distinction between the two.

Obviously at this point we know exactly where Davis fits in as Cherington and Company went back to their waiver wire well by claiming reliever Aaron Fletcher from the Seattle Mariners; officially announcing the acquisition on the Pirates profile, along with the fact that the 40-Man Roster was now full.

Nevertheless, all of this initial confusion could have been easily avoided by effectively communicating across the board. Sure, Pirates Fans are probably still upset that the team’s first real transaction-to add to roster-after the lockout was a waiver claim, but at least they didn’t have to wonder exactly what was going on.

Now, I realize that most of you are probably more focused on what is about to take place for the rest of Spring Training and during the upcoming season. Believe, me I am too. Even so, it’s hard for me to ignore even the smallest missteps; particularly when they start to become a pattern. You know, like regularly talking about taking steps to bolster the roster, but continuing to add players released by other teams.

Sorry, I just couldn’t help it. Sometimes these things just write themselves.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

3-14-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Baseball is back on the field, but none of us forget what we just went through. Nobody forgets that the system didn’t change for the better or that the owner still isn’t spending, but it’s also time to realize at some point baseball on the field takes precedence. It doesn’t mean we stopped caring about the issues, it’s just means that at some point we’re covering baseball, instead of the facilitation of a poorly run league.

Let’s dig in.

1. Remember the Plan?

From the minute Starling Marte was traded to Arizona, the Pittsburgh Pirates were rebuilding the franchise. We knew then the plan was to trade anyone who didn’t fit into the vision and rebuild the system from the bottom up. We further knew it wasn’t going to be a quick turnaround. Now that they’ve gotten to the point where some of those youngsters are on the doorstep fans are getting antsy.

After months of listening to all of baseball argue about how much the Luxury Tax threshold would be set at, it’s hard to jump right back in to watching the Pirates and see that 42 million dollar payroll. I’m all for the Pirates signing people and spending, but let’s not pretend what we’re seeing wasn’t the plan all along.

There are areas this team should absolutely spend on. Bullpen, Catcher, I could even make an argument for DH, but the point of acquiring all these young guys and building up the system was to at some point have them play.

This doesn’t mean you have to be ok with the payroll figure, hell you can even rightly feel it’s a joke, it is, but it’s also just a number. You don’t want to block Cruz or Swaggerty, Contreras or Yajure, you know, the guys you need to see in order to know what you have.

I say that because realistically, 20-30 million isn’t going to make this club a winner, but having Cruz and Contreras knock the rookie out of their game this year sure might help make it one in the next year.

All I’m saying is don’t forget the plan you bought into back in 2019 didn’t change, our patience level did, which is totally normal especially when this team refuses to give any indication of when they flip the switch to building from tearing down. Couple that with every team in the league seemingly rumored to want Bryan Reynolds while the team never shuts it down and you have a fan base that can’t help but think that they’re nowhere near something that resembles effort to win.

Don’t fight with people about this. You can trust Cherington and still think they should/could do something to improve the MLB product too. I promise nuance is allowed.

2. No Rule Five Draft in 2022!

Want good Pirates news? Well there you have it. I’m not convinced the Pirates were going to lose a player, but now we don’t have to worry about it. Mason Martin, Omar Cruz, Tahnaj Thomas and Cal Mitchell will all be in the system and when stacking prospects is your thing, well let’s just say you don’t want to fill a bucket with a hole in the bottom.

You could look at this another way too, now the Pirates can’t use the Rule 5 to go get something, and after what we watched in 2021, man I’m not convinced we shouldn’t be popping champagne in the streets.

It buys the Pirates another year to understand who all these guys are and avoid losing someone who could really be a piece. I do wonder if they were not forced to protect some guys if they don’t choose a few members of the 40-man differently. For instance, I don’t see it as likely that Liover Peguero will be ready this year, so it’s fair to expect they wouldn’t have put him on their 40-man. Maybe someone closer to cracking through makes it like Bae or Martin.

No matter how you look at it, I consider it an overall net positive that this event isn’t taking place in 2022.

3. No, They Won’t Rush Henry Davis to Help Already

When you draft a college player number one overall of course the timeline is going to be faster than some high school kid. But not this fast. Not at catcher.

Thing is, I won’t even sit here and try to convince you he wouldn’t easily be just as good as if not better than everyone but a healthy Roberto Perez and even he would get out hit by Henry I’d wager, but he’s too important to the future to risk forcing the issue here. He has some things to learn and his maturity will help him learn it more quickly than most but a catcher is not someone you want learning on the job, at least not at the major league level.

And I say this while I firmly feel he’s going to look like the best option this Spring. When he plays, really pay close attention, you’ll see what’s missing and what he needs to work on and even if you don’t, trust me, someone will point it out. I expect him to move through this system in fairly short order, but I don’t think expecting him to make it now just because the Pirates chose to jump the gun on moving Stallings is fair to him or his future. High A and MLB are still a healthy talent gap from each other.

4. Do Any Rookies Really Have a Shot to Make it Out of Spring?

Yes.

Ok, so that’s not enough to constitute a thought, I guess I better keep going and elaborate a bit here.

First of all, we don’t 100% know the roster size yet. MLB will be speaking to GM’s soon to determine if we’ll have 2 or 3 extra roster spots in April. If we do in fact have a few extra spots, I’d imagine that opens the door a bit for some guys.

We should probably be honest here, what you really want to know is are we going to see Roansy Contreras or Oneil Cruz right? It depends. Cruz probably could, and the DH position sure would be a tempting carrot, but Roansy simply has to get at least a few innings in at AAA I’d imagine.

If anyone has a shot I might give it to Diego Castillo or Rodolfo Castro. I think both could fill a utility role and that might be nice to have, but it’s just as likely they use every spot for pitching which immediately leads me to guys who are on the bubble to begin with like Dillon Peters, Hunter Stratton, Yerry De Los Santos or maybe even Beau Sulser.

Why not Max Kranick or Miguel Yajure? Well, players like that I can see the Pirates wanting to keep them at starter and that being the case I’m not sure you’d see them spend up to a month in MLB pitching out of the pen.

So, I guess a more accurate answer might be, yes, but it might be boring.

5. Any NRI’s That Might Catch Your Eye?

Again, Yes. First let me explain what NRI is just in case. Non Roster Invitee is the term and the Pirates have quite a few you may have never heard of who could make you look twice. Last year Matt Fraizer wound up being one of these guys and you never know when the next one will crop up.

My personal dark horse to have people finally notice him is Jared Triolo. The third base prospect was the Pirates CBBs pick and the 72nd overall. Like so many other prospects, he lost 2020 to COVID but came out of the extended break to put up a gorgeous 2021. The power popped and so did the stolen bases. 15 HR, 25 SB, a .304 AVG with a .480 SLG. He gets lost because of his position but this kid’s no joke.

Enmanuel Mejia is another reliever who spent time in Bradenton and Greensboro last year and in 31 games/42 2/3 innings he racked up 53 strikeouts versus 27 walks and a stellar ERA of 1.10. He functioned as the closer in DSL as well as Bradenton culminating in a 1.26 WHIP. He’s not close to making the majors, but he’s close to making his way into everyone’s consciousness.

Bonus: Slap Singles

  • Many of you ask what Neil Huntington is up to, it’s now being reported that the Cleveland Guardians have hired him as a special assistant. He’s been out of the game since his ousting in 2019 from the Pirates but he’s come full circle.
  • The Braves win the Matt Olson sweepstakes and pay dearly for the privilege. Oakland receives in return OF Cristian Pache, C Shea Langeliers, SP Ryan Cusick and SP Joey Estes. For all the Reynolds rumors swirling around and to lend perspective, it would take more than this. Think about that before you get worried.
  • The Rockies have signed old friend Chad Kuhl details of the deal aren’t available yet but it will be a MLB deal.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. broke his wrist and will miss at least 3 months. Brutal news for the Padres.
  • Reportedly Andrew McCutchen is in talks with the Brewers
  • ATTSports Pittsburgh is expected to release their Spring schedule for televised games early this week.
  • Hoy Park has tested positive for COVID-19 and is still in South Korea. Could wind up hurting his chances to make the club.
  • Ben Cherington said today when asked about being quiet post lockout, “We’re confident that we’ll be able to add to this team through free agency and/or trade.”
  • From Jason Mackey. Check out what he got from Ben Cherington today.

The Pirates Catching Position Must Be Addressed

3-13-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Here’s the thing, it’s not like catching isn’t important to this management team. They drafted one number one overall, actually nixed a deal with Philly because a catcher they wanted wasn’t involved. They involved a third team in the Joe Musgrove deal to ensure they got a catcher back in the deal too.

Then out of the other side of their mouths they went ahead and traded their gold glove catcher with a ton of control. The return doesn’t really matter either, the point is it left the major league squad that already needed to address it’s backup spot in need of finding a starter.

Enter Roberto Perez. More than capable of handling the position defensively, he’s a 2 time gold glover himself after all. Here’s the thing though, the dude just hasn’t hit, in all but one year and more than anything he hasn’t stayed healthy. 79 games is the most he’s played in recent history and that my friends is what has me so concerned.

Believe it or not, this isn’t about cheap, they’ll already pay more for this position than they have since Cervelli was cut loose with Roberto’s 5 million dollar price tag alone.

Taylor Davis remains on the 40-man and Michael Perez was removed from the 40 man and reassigned.

I’m sorry, that’s not enough.

Again, I’m not even bothering to talk about my reservations that Roberto Perez can produce. Like, I wouldn’t like it if he caught 135 games and hit .175, but at least he’d handle a majority of the games in his typically strong defensive style. Thing is, he just won’t. In fact in my mind it’s aggressive to suggest we should bank on him handling 100 games.

Taylor Davis is such a good catcher he’s listed as a 3B on the Spring Training roster and most of you remember Michael.

The free agent market is non-existent, and there is no rule five draft which would have been grasping at straws in the first place.

I think the Pirates may need to make an actual baseball trade here and I can’t get past this feeling like a self inflicted wound. It was simply too early to move Stallings, and I say that even while really liking what they got in return. If they had moved him after this season, ok, I can make an argument that the young options were getting close enough, hell I could at that point probably argue Henry Davis himself could be close.

So let’s deal with the situation at hand and suggest some guys the Pirates could target. Keep in mind, I’m not looking to solve this position for the next 5 years, the development system should address that, I just want stability for 2022.

From the San Diego Padres Victor Caratini could fit the bill. He’s used to being a backup and with Austin Nola and Luis Campusano in the fold too the Friars might be willing to part with him.

Everyone’s favorite trade rumor partner the Toronto Blue Jays have a couple options but the one I think could be had almost just for being willing to get him out of the way is ex Pirtes farm hand Reese McGuire.

From the Houston Astros, Michael Papierski interests me. To be fair, Michael was someone I wanted to see the Pirates potentially target in the Rule Five draft, and the Astros have 3 guys in that territory. They can’t assume they’ll keep all of them. Can’t imagine this would cost much either.

It’s clear the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a rebuild so in this rare case I’ll target their starter, Carson Kelly. They have Daulton Varsho and he might be ready to take over full time, meanwhile Carson would be a nice insurance policy more than capable of splitting time at the very least in Pittsburgh.

The point of all of this is that I feel this position is too important to just roll the dice. With Roberto Perez’ history, it’s likely he doesn’t play 75 games and that’s if he does what he’s done recently. This Roster is chalk full of young pitching, and I can’t see leaving it in the hands of a carousel of catchers. It’s not about wanting a name, or spending a certain amount, it’s about doing the bare minimum. To be clear, I don’t feel they’re at bare minimum territory here for this position and if they don’t address it there is zero way to look at it beyond willfully not providing the absolute basement for preparedness.

Top Five Pirates Prospects: Odd Men Out

3-12-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement On Twitter)

It’s amazing how much things can change from one moment to the next based simply on a singular event or decision.

Earlier this week-and for the previous three plus months-the news surrounding Major League Baseball focused mostly on the continuous CBA Negotiations, the MLB Lockout and the possibility of a shortened season; or maybe no season at all. Because of these circumstances the majority of stories and/or blog post ideas that swirled around inside my mind had to do with how the Minor League Season-and the prospects more specifically-could be affected by the absence of players from the 40-Man Roster in the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System; even leading me to write about this topic just five days ago. In fact, the draft of this particular blog post was originally titled Opportunity Knocks, based on the idea that some Pirates prospects could have a chance to put their names back in the conversation for roles on the Major League Roster given the players-who were at the time-forced off the diamond.

Then at 3pm on Thursday all of this was flipped upside down when the MLBPA voted to approve the most recent MLB proposal 26-12, with the owners eventually following suit in unanimous fashion.

The initial thought of who could get another chance, quickly turned those that could find themselves on the outside looking in; including a few off the 40-man, but also others that might be out of the Pirates Organization all together.

Now, before I get started it must be made known, that this gives me no pleasure-actually the opposite-to talk about players that could end up having their dreams crushed to one degree or another. These are guys that have followed throughout their careers, seen play in person on multiple occasions and cheered for at every turn.

Nevertheless, as Michael Corleone famously said, “It’s not personal. It’s strictly business”. And, as we should all know by now, baseball is most certainly a business.

1) Bligh Madris

The first time I ever wrote about Madris was way back in February of 2020 for the somewhat defunct Inside The Pirates Sports Illustrated website. At the time the Mesa State College product was likely set to begin the season in Double-A Altoona, with his sights set on a quick bump up to Triple-A Indianapolis if he was able to build upon his .260/.324/.379 slash line and 36 extra base hits-8 homers-from the previous season.

Unfortunately 2020 never happened, and when 2021 finally rolled around Madris was still in Altoona; but only for a short time. After 10 games with the Curve he found himself in an Indians uniform for the remainder of the year. In 385 Triple-A plate appearances Madris blasted 9 homers while batting .273 with a professional high .786 OPS.

So, why may you ask could the now 26 year-old outfielder be on his way out? Well, it really has nothing to do with how he has performed. Instead, it might simply be a numbers game. With Canaan Smith-Njiba, Travis Swaggerty and Travis Suwinski being added to the 40-Man back in November, Cal Mitchell in the mix and Matthew Fraizer on all of their heals, there simply may not be room on the Indianapolis Indians roster when the season begins on April 5th.

2) Jared Olivia

As some of you may know, Jared Olivia is my 10 year-old son’s favorite baseball player; ever since Olivia threw him a ball, and later signed it at a Bradenton Marauders game in 2018. Over the next couple of years we would travel to Altoona to see him play, sit around the television to watch his MLB Debut on September 21, 2000 and check on his progress fairly regularly in between and after.

During the 2019 season in Altoona Olivia literally turned the page; ending the year as both an Eastern League All-Star and the team’s MVP by batting .277, with 36 extra base hits and 36 stolen bases. Following the season he would go on to slash .312/.413/.473 in the Arizona Fall League; earning another All-Star nod.

Sadly, things would only go down hill for the former Arizona Wildcat over the next two seasons. In 2020 he appeared in 6 Major League games, while batting .188. Then in 2021 he began the year by staying behind in Bradenton for some individual work with hitting coach Jon Nunnally, before tweaking an oblique when he was assigned to Indianapolis. After a little over a month delay to the season, Olivia hit .249 with the Indians and .175 with Pirates; never really looking like himself at any point during the season.

Currently Olivia finds himself on the 40-Man, but in a pretty similar situation to Madris; as the numbers begin to stack up against them. Although, in Olivia’s case, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that could challenge Anthony Alford and Greg Allen for the 4th Outfielder Spot. Yet, if he doesn’t win, it’s right back to the same predicament.

3) Hunter Owen

Originally selected in 25th round of the 2016 draft out of Indiana State University, Owen excelled at Double-A Altoona during 2019. A super utility player (3B/OF/1B) by trade, he batted a career high .295 and crushed 15 homers in 68 games. Unfortunately this success did not transfer to Triple-A Indianapolis as he struggled to hit .192 with 5 homers.

However, when he returned to the Indians this past season Owen did see an uptick in some of his offensive numbers, which was promising; I’m just not sure it will be enough. His average rose to .235, he had a solid OPS of .757 and lead the entire team with 20 homers, but-and it’s a big but-he continued to strike out at a rate over 30% and only walked 7.9% of the time.

Owen did get an extremely brief look with the Pirates last year; striking out in 3 of his 4 plate appearances.

Listed as an outfielder and pinch hitter by trade, Owen has played the majority of time at third base; so he has shown position flexibility. This is clearly something that Cherington has been known to favor; still, at 28 years old it’s hard to ignore the fact that time could be running out.

4) Cam Vieaux

Over the past two seasons, Vieaux has tried to make the jump from Double-A Altoona to Triple-A Indianapolis. In his time with the Curve-including 2018-he posted a combined 3.11 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP. In direct contrast his ERA sits at 5.89 and his WHIP has landed at 1.647 with the Indians.

Seen as a starter for almost all of his Minor League Career, Vieaux was used out of the bullpen at times in Altoona with minimal success. In twelve appearances and across 21 innings he put up a 4.29 ERA and a 1.476 WHIP.

I only mention this because when a starting pitcher is struggling, the knee jerk reaction is often to make a case for him to be a reliever. Yes, this can work at times, but it’s not always the easy answer.

5) Blake Weiman

Unlike Vieaux, Weiman has been viewed-and used-as a reliever from the moment he joined the Pirates Organization. Nevertheless, they find themselves in nearly the same situation.

After splitting time between Altoona and Indianapolis in 2019, Weiman became a full-time Indian in 2021; bouncing between a set up role and being the defacto closer, yet never finding consistency in either.

If you look at Weiman’s numbers for the entire season it looks as if he had a fairly solid season. His 1.081 WHIP put him near the threshold you would be be looking for from an elite reliever. However, when you go month by month this number regularly fluctuates between .667 and 2.727 throughout the year.

On the plus side he did finish the season with his best month as he struck out 21 batters in 12 innings, so it’s possible he was finally able to put thing together after being sidelined in 2020.

Conclusion

Yesterday the Pirates released their list of Non-Roster Invitees for Major League Spring Training. Each of the players discussed-aside from Oliva, who would already be there due to his spot on the 40-Man-can be found among the 28 names. This keeps them in the conversation for now. Plus, they also have a little bit of an upper hand because they have been able to prepare at Pirate City for the past few weeks.

Regardless, as Ben Cherington continues to acquire and develop prospects for Pittsburgh’s Farm System, some players will push through while others will be passed over; eventually becoming the odd men out.

Some Realistic Free Agent Targets for the Pirates

3-12-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It’s hard to broach the subject of free agency as a Pittsburgh Pirates fan. What they need isn’t really realistic to expect them to get. They are fighting an owner who hasn’t opened the pocket book since 2016 and on top of that, it’s always a challenge to lure a free agent to sign with a team mired in a half decade long rebuild effort. Nobody wants to be the first.

It’ s part of why Russell Martin is held in such reverence here in Pittsburgh. He had other options and the Pirates looked nothing like a burgeoning playoff contender, yet he still made a pact to become the veteran backstop for the Pirates.

I’m not sure we spend enough time talking about how crucial to the success of the last competitive window that signing was. And we’re not talking about a superstar mind you, just a solid, above average major league professional baseball player. In other words, Martin was a lot closer to Tyler Anderson than he was Carlos Correa.

The Pirates are again on the cusp of flooding their Major League squad with young talent and that young talent will need to see proof this club is committed to more than hoping they’ve done enough to sneak into the expanded playoffs. For a player like Bryan Reynolds, I’m sure it matters if this team looks like it has a willingness to build around him, because the alternative is leaving him believe he’s just a cog in a wheel.

In that Spirit, lets try to keep our heads about us and call for real free agents we truly think could help and even if an overpay is in order, could get.

Dellin Betances (RP)

Dellin lost almost all of 2021 to injury. He was on a 6 million dollar contact but only managed to pitch in one game. A career 11.2 WAR pitcher, Betances who is almost 34 could add much needed experience to the Pirates bullpen. Capable of being the main setup man or even the closer in a pinch. If Dellin is healthy, he’s exactly the type of guy the Bucs should be targeting. I think he could be had on a two year deal with AAV of 3.5-4 Million. It’s been 3 years since he was the sure thing out of the pen he was with the Yankees but if his repaired shoulder is healed up it would be wise of the Pirates to jump on this one.

Archie Bradley (RP)

Archie is a successful and versatile reliever who has filled just about every role there is out there. He’s been a 2 or 3 inning guy, setup man and in a pinch, closer. He’s not going to come cheap, Arch isn’t damaged goods. At almost 30 he’s also not over the hill. I think this would take a 3 year 6-7 million dollar AAV and that even might be a bit low to woo him to the Pirates. He’s a less risky but more costly version of Betances and would serve the same role. Neither of these guys will block anyone and after a season or two could even serve as valuable flip candidates.

Jose Martinez (1B, DH)

OK, Jose says he can play outfield too but just being honest, I don’t want him to, and neither do you in case you haven’t seen him do it.

The Pirates need a DH and everything about Martinez screams DH. Because of the fact there are a bunch of new teams that need one, I expect his market to be much bigger than it would be otherwise.

Jose is a career 2.4 WAR player, and as I mentioned if you’ve ever seen him play defense you know that didn’t come from being a well rounded player, that said, he’s easily as good at first as anyone the Pirates have on the roster.

He missed all of 2021 to a torn meniscus in his left knee and was released by the Mets without ever playing a game. Many annalists have him needing to accept a minor league deal with an invite, so if the Pirates were to hit him with a one year 1-2 million dollar MLB contract, they have a real chance of scoring a decent stick for the lineup and bench providing he’s healed up over the Winter.

Eddie Rosario (OF, DH)

Eddie should be more than a familiar face to Derek Shelton, he was his DH, 2B and LF for some of the most explosive offensive units we’ve seen in the AL Central with the Twins. Eddie can be the DH, or he could be a starting corner outfielder, and if that’s not enough he could fill in at second if need be.

More than just being a professional hitter with a track record, even at age 30 he still has the chops to be a leadoff hitter, a skill set not too many internal options have.

Last season he signed a one year deal with Cleveland for 8 million and was dealt to Atlanta for the stretch run where he really picked it up in the hitter friendly confines down there. He can hit for some power, like most Twins players from his era and his average and OBA will always keep him wanted in the lineup.

I think it will take 8-10 million AAV over 2 or 3 seasons, but Rosario answers a lot of questions and holds a spot down while the Pirates allow youngsters to fully develop. He’s also as mentioned a guy Shelton isn’t going to have to learn to trust.

Khris Davis (DH, OF)

Not gonna lie, this is a poke an hope. for a stretch of a few years from 2016 to 2018 Khris hit over 40 homeruns for the A’s every season. His average is generally not great, but the power is undeniable. At 35 years old coming off two consecutive terrible campaigns the Pirates could get him for a song.

He’s listed as a Left Fielder but this would almost exclusively be a DH signing. I’d recommend offering him 1 year at 1 Million on a Minor League offer. Not unlike Todd Frazier last season. Very similar player at this point.

This team is badly in need of power, and if he has a resurgence, man is that a heck of a score. If he doesn’t, you aren’t out enough to worry about. Neither I or the Pirates will be alone in this thinking but with the truncated timeline here, maybe jumping in early gives you an edge.

Top Battles to Watch in Spring

3-11-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Listen, I know this CBA wasn’t ideal for this market, and I swear I’m not ignoring it. I’ve written about the situation for close to 4 months now and watched the number of readers dwindle from week to week as the faithful became less so. Point is, the positives and negatives didn’t slip past me, nor did what they didn’t get done that would have actually fixed the game.

All that being said, you’ll have to pardon me as the kid in me just wants to write about baseball today. Talking about on the field has been difficult at best as we navigated the lockout and I’m chomping at the bit.

Starting Rotation

This is all about shear numbers, Jose Quintana, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Bryse Wilson, Zach Thompson, Wil Crowe, Dillon Peters, Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, Max Kranick, Jarad Eickhoff.

That’s 11 pitchers who could all conceivably start in MLB on day one. It doesn’t represent everyone who has a shot all season but from the jump, that’s an honest list.

Now, Ben Cherington is on record saying he wants to bring in another to compete. History tells us that’s going to look something like Ervin Santana on a MiLB show me deal not unlike Eickhoff, or seeing how much Chris Archer thinks his value has dropped, but to me, If I can’t sit here and say the new signing is nailed on better than the first five names I mentioned, I’ll pass.

For me, that’s a guy like Zach Davies, Drew Smyly, Brett Anderson, somewhere in that territory. I don’t think it’s terribly realistic, but again, if they’re going to sign someone, get someone destined to win a spot, not destined to happily be reassigned to AAA or cut.

Bullpen Battles

Closer is locked up, it’ll be David Bednar. I know some will want to talk about Cederlind but he’s still coming off TJS and on top of that wants to be given an (ill fated in my opinion) opportunity to start.

Barring a trade, Chris Stratton is a lock too. Beyond those two, I’d say it’s a pretty wide open battle.

For instance we could easily see a couple of those rotation options migrate to the pen like Peters or Crowe. They probably need to fill 9-11 spots accounting for call ups, meaning you’re going to want to have some guys in AAA who can come help, especially with a short Spring.

Duane Underwood Jr. is not going to be a popular lock, but I believe he is. He ate innings, more than any other reliever, and that’s valuable. Specifically 72 innings with a 4.33 ERA and a .2 WAR. Now, his WHIP stinks, 1.431, which is exactly what he has to improve on and ultimately what is his undoing. Far too many walks and hits. That said I think he gets a shot again.

Nick Mears and Sam Howard probably have the inside track on making it again as well. Anthony Banda to me needs one of Howard or Peters to not make the squad.

Folks, you don’t need me to tell you that’s a poor bullpen.

I think given his post trade performance last season, good chance Richard Rodriguez finds his way back to Pittsburgh. Personally, not someone who thinks what he does is sustainable, but it might be better than doing nothing. Really the club could stand to add 3 or 4 but I’m not expecting that.

Again, I think Blake Cederlind could at some point jump back into the conversation here and be a great help. Hunter Stratton, Yerry De Los Santos and Joe Jacques could all get a shot to contribute.

I also think depending on how the development proceeds, JC Flowers and Kyle Nicolas are names to watch. They’ll both start out as starters in AA but both have some scouts thinking bullpen is in their future. I’d toss Omar Cruz into this conversation, but I think they really want to have him stick as a starter. Cam Vieaux or Osvaldo Bido are more likely if they’re to pull another starter into the conversation from AAA.

Catcher

God help us they need another.

Roberto Perez is going to start, but let’s be blunt, he hasn’t played a ton and I don’t see it reversing course this year. As we sit here, Michael Perez (currently not even on the 40 man) has to be the leader in the clubhouse and I probably don’t need to tell you that’s not good enough.

I hoped the Pirates would handle this in the Rule 5 Draft, but according to Zach Buchanan of the Athletic this event has been cancelled for this season. Which helps the Pirates in other areas of course.

The Pirates brought in Jamie Ritchie to compete and Jason Delay is still around too, but neither are exciting options. If you’re looking for a real prospect you really have to look to AA and Eli Wilson or Carter Bins, neither of which are really ready in my eyes.

The free agent market is going to be hotly contested and it’s weak to begin with. A reunion with Luke Maile who never really got a chance here could be in order and I’ll be very blunt there isn’t another +WAR player on the board.

It’s easily the worst situation on the team and that’s saying something.

They could of course trade for one, but it’s too early to really understand who’s available. May need to think about acquiring someone in AAA, maybe even someone you might have wanted in the Rule 5.

First Base

Whether you want to admit it or not, Yoshi Tsutsugo was signed to play first base. He said it, the team said it, and all I’ve seen are people assuming he won’t play it. My bet is he gets a shot to hold it down at least part time while spending some time as the DH.

The other internal option that’s apparent is Michael Chavis who’s simply untested there and realistically as a hitter as well, but both of these bats are going to be wanted in the lineup if for no other reason than to get power inserted into what they’re trying to do.

I’ve made a pitch for this before, but Daniel Vogelbach might be a nice pickup here. He could do well at first and in a DH role as well. Problem is that’s 3 guys who really shouldn’t be playing anywhere but first. Chavis has some other positions he can play but he’s not a natural second baseman and as an outfielder, well, I’m not sure he has the chops to play left at least.

Mason Martin has the best shot from the prospect pool to impact the club. Now, he has work to do, but if he shows improvement in OBA the Pirates might be tempted to see what his bat could do in the bigs.

Even with his strikeout problem, I’m of the belief he could contribute but I’m not the one who needs convinced.

Third Base

There is no competition. Ke’Bryan Hayes as often as possible. They’ll still need someone else to play there and Michael Chavis is probably the best bet. Hoy Park could too but I’m not sure I’m convinced he’ll make the roster. Rodolfo Castro is another possibility.

Outfield

First, I’ve been told the team has just about zero interest in trading Bryan Reynolds, but I understand until such a time as they extend him or make a public statement the rumors aren’t going away.

For the time being, can I just say he’s a lock? I think so.

Ben Gamel will play and likely start. Bare minimum he’s a 4th outfielder and he’d be a damn good one of those.

That brings us to old friend Anthony Alford who I personally would have already moved on from or Greg Allen. I figure both are clubhouse favorites to make the club but they certainly shouldn’t make it without competition being more than cosmetic.

Travis Swaggerty or Jared Oliva certainly should have a chance to beat them out. Regardless of how you feel about Oliva I can’t see how he isn’t at least on the level of Allen or Alford. By mid season these names plus Jack Suwinski, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cal Mitchell and Matthew Fraizer should all be making a push of their own.

I’ve called for them to bring in a real locked on starter at the position and while I don’t see them doing it, let’s put forward a name anyway, it’s just too fun not to.

Eddie Rosario intrigues me, first he’s not a world beater in the outfield, but he has plenty of DH experience which is interesting to me, so even if the kids progress quickly Eddie’s bat makes him a worthwhile signing anyway.

Middle Infield

Lots of possibilities, and that’s saying it lightly.

Oneil Cruz, Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Hoy Park are the 4 who probably have a head start, although I’ll have to actually see Cruz start in MLB before I’ll believe it. Rumor is expanded rosters could play a role at the beginning of the season (much like 2020 where we had 30 man rosters) and it’d be hard to convince fans that he isn’t one of the best 30 players they have.

Next up you have Castro who I already suggested could help in multiple places. Diego Castillo could really be a players too and before the season is out Marcano and Bae as well.

I think the Pirates have room to deal from this group, maybe even should, but this is the group I see initially battling it out.

Conclusion

Craig and I are going to obviously dig in much more but I thought since talking actual baseball was so tough during the lockout I thought it might be nice to give you all a refresher on who’s here and some of the guys to watch in this truncated Spring.

Have a good day everyone!

Play Ball, We Have a New CBA in MLB

3-10-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

In light of current events, I’m going to avoid making a bunch of war references, but suffice to say just because this thing gets signed, we shouldn’t expect the two sides in this negotiation have solved their problems. They’ve only ensured we’ll be having many of the same arguments in a few years.

The executive board of players which by now you all know has 5 Scott Boras clients of the 8 members tried to nix the deal, but the players body overruled them 26-12 and the deal is done.

That said, we will have Major League Baseball, and for many fans even in Pittsburgh, unfair baseball is better than no baseball, so let’s talk about some of the highlights and what it means for our Pirates.

I’ll write much more on all this as the days go by but for now, we have baseball, and I’ll take that as the bright side for today and move on.

Baseball will open the season on April 7th, Spring training on March 17th and we’ll play 162.

Expanded Playoffs

It was touch and go there for a while, would it be 12 or 14? Well, it’s 12 and that means more teams should in theory be in it late into the season.

CBT Threshold

230 million. That’s the starting point, up from 214. This was the main sticking point and if I may, where Boras was concentrated all along. The block of teams opposed to raising it beyond 220 was 10, they only need 8 to stop a proposal. Getting the union to drop the grievances against the teams over lack of spending was key to get this pushed through despite Boras trying to torpedo it at the 11th hour.

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool and Minimum Salary

To be clear, this is completely new spending and while it will come from a central pool, it will count against the CBT threshold. 50 million dollars will now be used to reward exceptional young players. Minimum salary also increased to 700,000 and by 2026 will be 780,000.

Draft Lottery

The top 4 spots in the draft will now be a lottery. Big markets can only have it one year while small can have it twice.

Rule Changes

None of these take effect until 2023, but larger bases, limited shift banning and pitch clocks are all coming to the game. The DH enters this season.

Pirates Wins

Not much. As I wrote this morning, the Pirates lot in life isn’t going to improve from this CBA. I suppose expanded playoffs could help.

Pirates Losses

Not much, believe it or not, the gap got bigger, but that’s about it. It’s a break even deal for the Bucs.

Bottom Line

Who cares. We want baseball and they just got it done. It doesn’t help or hurt the Pirates measurably and the players punched Scott Boras in the nose on the last day. Ratification will take place at 6 PM this evening and then the floodgates of news and transactions follow quickly. Stay tuned and buckle up.

The Issue is the Gap, Not a Cap

3-10-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Baseball is deadlocked in a pissing match, and I have to be honest, the winner won’t make a lick of difference for 75% of teams in the league. Sometimes a win on paper never makes its way to reality, and that’s exactly what it appears the players are fighting for while the owners protect an indefensible stronghold.

The CBT threshold is the defacto ceiling for MLB spending. It really doesn’t matter what the league intended it to be. I say that because if you like to believe the worst about the owners, you believe they intended this to be a soft salary cap, and if you don’t, you believe they wanted it to be a funding mechanism for small to mid market spenders. Essentially you’d have to believe the league thought multiple teams would blow right past the barrier willfully and hand buckets of free cash to the have nots.

Either way, there’s no denying what it’s come to be. A soft salary cap that few teams are willing to pay the penalty for crossing and even fewer are capable of reaching.

While I watch the players fight to get the threshold increased I can’t help but point out, it isn’t going to help. Make it 230, 240, hell, make it 300 million, and it simply isn’t going to change much.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Padres could all approach it, and I think they’ve fairly proven no more than one or two will actually exceed it. So, the Players aren’t really fighting for much here. Let’s say the owners give in and give the players that 268 figure they keep tossing around, on paper that’s a league wide increase of roughly 1.6 billion.

Sounds huge doesn’t it?

Well, that assumes every team is going to spend more, which simply won’t happen. Hell that number itself pretends everyone was at the threshold already. So let’s say it’s an increase in penalty free spending space.

If the teams like I mentioned above can spend more into that area, it’ll mean some additional spending on payroll I suppose. Even the Dodgers would have a bit of room left, so of course there will be more spending.

Part of what was missed with the whole CBT threshold experiment though, all it was ever, was a top of the mountain. One that many teams can’t reach. In fact it’s incentivised many clubs that knew they could never come within 75 million of it to stop trying to get as close as they could.

Think of it like this. You enter a race with all your neighborhood friends, let’s say there are 30 of you. It’s a bike race with a bunch of hills and relatively challenging. Let’s assume everyone works out so they’re all relatively capable of finishing, of course some will be in better shape. To even the scales someone puts a cap on how much money you can spend on your bike at 1000 bucks.

Everyone sets off to train and get their bikes and on day one, Mike the fittest dude in the neighborhood who does an hour on his Peloton before you brew a pot of coffee goes out and gets a 1000 dollar lightweight fiberglass bike with 10 gears and starts flying around the plan that night.

1000 was an insane spending limit most of you thought, and on top of that you needed a week just to save up and get that 200 dollar model you had your eye on so you can’t even start training, at least not on the bike you’re going to use.

Some of you try. You go get a 750 dollar bike the next day and start working your ass off to give it your all. Some just decide right then and there you aren’t going to win so why not just hold onto your money and go get a Target 125 dollar model just to say you ran the race. The most you had anyway was like 250 so what’s the difference?

I mean if you’re in the 750 group you always have a chance that Mike hits a Turkey crossing the road and you’ll be right there to take the win. The 125 group, well, I guess you get to laugh that you somehow finished ahead of Mike that one time and spent way less.

That’s the system MLB has created in a nutshell. A system that allows for spending, but only has a select few who can do it and creates some who won’t try.

Now, nobody is going to tell Mike he has to help get a better bike for the folks on the low end, but next year comes up and instead of 30 wanting to participate, now there’s only 15. Mike and some of the 750 guys are like man this isn’t as much fun, in fact part of the race course will be closed because an entire block of the neighborhood doesn’t want to see bikes on their street.

This is a silly example, but this is a whole lot of what is going on with this league.

They’ve created a system that for the first time in history openly recognizes there are “small markets” and “big markets”. It’s in the language folks. It’s funny because in all the time I’ve been writing about baseball the most consistent push back I’ve gotten from readers is about my assertion that the Pirates are a small market club.

Part of me really appreciates the acknowledgement, another part of me is furious that instead of fixing the situation they instead chose to just put it on paper. All a couple days after a “city” the size of Monroeville (Green Bay) just committed 150 some million to one guy for two years in the NFL.

Oh there are other problems these two sides have to hammer out, and oddly this issue isn’t even one they’re trying to fix, not yet anyway. I could almost excuse the loss of baseball if I felt it was headed toward fixing the one thing that would actually improve the game for everyone. Alas, we’re arguing about 5 million more in room to spend so 2 or 3 teams can spend a bit more. 10 million more for young players that come from central spending and don’t raise payroll. Silly rule changes that in a normal league would be what the fans actually cared about.

Nobody talks about what is needed to really help the league and the players. A floor and increased revenue sharing. And yes I know why, because that’s a cap system. It’s also what would get the players exactly what they want, a bigger, provable slice of the pie. And it would eliminate Small vs Big entirely. You may be sick of hearing it, you may believe it’ll never happen, that makes it no less true.

Baseball is no longer the national pastime. Oh it might be for you, I suspect if you’re reading this that’s likely. Nationally, it’s just not. I follow this game closely as I’m sure you do, and without FanGraphs I couldn’t tell you the names of 3 players in Cleveland. It’s not the game it used to be because when economics changed and baseball became a business instead of the child’s game you grew up watching, the league lacked the fortitude or vision to ensure the most basic responsibility of all Sports Leagues, a level playing field.

When baseball comes back, I’ll watch. Most of you will too. But I’ll know it’s still broken. In fact I know beyond a shadow of doubt we’ll be having almost exactly the same fight in 5 years.

The players right now by the best estimates I’ve seen make about 42% of the league’s baseball generated revenue. In five years, I’d be shocked if that number exceeded 45%, even with all the seemingly player friendly proposals. Every other major league sport in the country the players make 50% or greater.

Oh, don’t get me wrong, the players will look at this CBA when it’s done and feel like they scored a huge win, but all they’ve done is given the few teams who could afford it a bit more room.

In fact of everything that frustrates me, the impotence of this CBA coupled with losing games takes the cake.

That said, when it seemed they were close to agreeing on deadline night TWICE now, the league has dropped a bomb on the players last second. First time it was rule changes, this time it was an International draft. Kinda feels like sabotage doesn’t it? Maybe they don’t want a deal. Maybe they just want to break the union.

Maybe I’d care if I had any belief they’d fight for the right thing, instead I think they’re just fighting to let that number stay at 42%, not what fans want or need.

Every year it gets one year closer to too late. Ask your grandkids if you don’t believe me.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Time to Dive Back In

3-9-22 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno – With the news that the MLB and MLBPA have basically locked themselves in a room and are finally getting to the nitty gritty, we finally have a light at the end of the tunnel. For Joe and I, that means getting back to trade talk. 

**CBA Update- Turns out the light at the end of the tunnel was an oncoming mac-truck.**

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

A few months back (it seems like a year ago) we wrote a piece on some trade possibilities to keep an eye on over the Winter Meetings. We’ve already written some of them up: Bryan Reynolds. Jacob Stallings. Chris Stratton. 

The names that are left? Cole Tucker. Kevin Newman. Ben Gamel. There were some other names, but some were cut or left off the 40 man. Colan Moran, Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl. This makes JT Brubaker, someone we mentioned could be looked at, a safe bet to stay put. 

Joe, I think we can cover all three-Tucker, Newman and Gamel in one swoop. Ya with me?

Joe Boyd – Yup, let’s get to it. We are lucky enough that Fangraphs has released the 2022 ZIPS Projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates , so making these Surplus Value projections is a bit easier. Let’s go in reverse, controllable years order:

Ben Gamel – SV: $2.70M – Gamel signed a 1/$1.8M deal to avoid arbitration, and that deal was below his projected arb valuation of $2.79M, so that deal helps the Pirates quite a bit when it comes to his value.  ZiPS has his expected WAR to be at 0.5, so that’s how we get to $2.70M SV. 

Kevin Newman – SV:  $13.74M – Newman has 3 years of control remaining, and ZiPS is rather bullish on Newman, all things considered, with a projection of 1.0 WAR.  As a refresher, we have an age factor for future projections, so we’re looking at 1.0 WAR in 2022, 0.9 in 2023, and 0.8 in 2024.  It’s obviously impossible to predict 2022 let alone the following two years, but a 3-year WAR projection of 2.7 WAR is used to justify the SV for Newman. 

Cole Tucker – SV: $18.51M – Okay.  So ZiPS is clearly pretty high on Tucker.  He has played 136 career games over the course of 3 professional seasons with a total WAR of -0.7.  So to predict a season of 0.9 WAR is pretty bold.   So if we go with the ZiPS projection and four years of control, we get the $18.51M SV.  I personally would feel more comfortable at a value of about half of that, so I might go with a value of ~$8M. 

JV – The projections for Newman and Tucker are surprising, to say the least. Control, in many ways, is still king. The question becomes, “will teams see that value?” I lean strongly towards “no” on that question. And that’s okay, because we are no longer in the “accumulate as much talent as you can” phase. 

We’ve entered the next phase. That’s not to say Ben Cherington won’t have another trade up his sleeve in the rebuild mode, but all in all, the trades we see in the next 12 months or so are roster construction and rentals. 

Here I see three types of trades: a roster construction trade, a rental trade, and a viable change of scenery trade. Man, I love this phase. There are so many different ways to approach it. 

Joe has given up the surplus values of our three trade candidates, so let’s get started. 

Cole Tucker 

JB – Here’s Longenhagen’s write-up on Tucker in 2018, “Tucker is a big-framed 6-foot-3, 185, and is built like Manny Machado was at the same age. Tucker isn’t quite that twitchy, nor as athletic, but he is a plus runner underway and agile for his size, affording him average lateral range at short despite a middling first step. The development of Tucker’s arm strength, which had slowly been improving since 2015 labrum surgery, seems to have plateaued, with scouts grading it as a 50 or 55 on the 20-80 scale. That’s still enough to project him at shortstop, even if he’s just a 45 or 50 glove there at peak. Because arm strength and a good first step are of profound importance at third base, Tucker probably moves to second base in the event that he’s pushed off of short.

Tucker has better feel to hit from the left side, where he possesses superior bat control and a more graceful, controlled cut. Most of his in-game power comes from his hands/wrists with little coming from Tucker’s lower half. Combined with a patient, contact-first approach to hitting, that leads to lots of doubles down the line and to the right-center gap. He projects to clear the league-average shortstop hitting line of .260/.315/.407, and he could be an above-average regular if he grows into a bit more power.” Tucker really never developed that power and certainly didn’t grow into Machado.  He’s a clear candidate to go elsewhere to get another shot.  

Trade Partner – Toronto Blue Jays

Surprise, surprise.  The Blue Jays often come up here because of Cherington and Sanders’ intimate knowledge of the farm.  So why not a change of scenery for a change of scenery?  I’m thinking Jordan Groshans here.  Due to injury and pandemic, he’s only played one full season since being drafted in 2018.  He’s showing less pop than promised when drafted, but “Groshans has shown excellent control of the strike zone and promising bat-to-ball skills despite his odd-looking bat path.”  Fangraphs sees him as a good big leaguer instead of the star that was expected a few years ago.  Let’s see if a fresh chance and the GM that drafted him can untap that potential?

JV – I won’t lie. As I sit here and stare at my computer screen trying to come up with a team and a viable trade package for Cole Tucker, I’m stymied. I see no team willing to pay full price for Tucker, while at the same time I see no path to real playing time for him in Pittsburgh. And that also suggests that the Pirates won’t really be able to build or showcase that value. Add in that the Bucs have plenty of infielders on the way, and Coletuck just doesn’t have a home here. The Buccos should absolutely see if they can find him a home. Part change of scenery, part roster construction type move here. 

I think a team that takes a look at Tucker could view him as a utility player as he’s capable at 3B, 2B, SS and has dabbled in the OF.  I’m going with a team that could actually give him a chance to play everyday, be it at SS or with a different glove everyday ala Josh Harrison when he first came up for the Bucs. 

Trade Partner – Houston Astros

Forrest Whitley- SP-ETA: 2022–  40+ FV (3M)

For those that remember the Gerrit Cole trade rumors, yes, that Forrest Whitley. At one point Forrest seemed to be the main target that the Pirates sought in a package for Cole. At the time, he was a 65 FV guy and universal top 10 prospect.

Everyone who wants a reminder that there’s no such thing as a sure thing even with top 10 prospects, Forrest Whitley is your guy. A 5 pitch mix topping out at 99 MPH(Or as Fangraphs described him, “a 5 pitch fire-breathing dragon) he had the look of a legit ace and power arm. After testing positive for performance enhancers and a lost season to Tommy John Surgery, Whitley is looking to rediscover what got him there and a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered.

When it comes to pitching prospects, always remember TINSTAAPP! (There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect)

Kevin Newman

JV – Joe, I’m taking a different approach with Kevin Newman. Kevin is a former 1st rounder, so there’s some peegree here. Newman will never provide the big punch with the bat, but he is two years removed from a good year where he slashed 308/353/446 with an OPS of 800 producing a solid 2.4 WAR. He’s not going to be the centerpiece of a team, but he has played 3B, SS, 2B and even some OF in his time with the Pirates, so this too should have some value for a team. Perhaps a team will look at Kevin as a change of scenery candidate, and that’s what I’m predicting here: a change of scenery candidate for a change of scenery candidate. The team….

Washington Nationals – The Nationals finished with a 65-97 record in ‘21, but with the return of Stephen Strasburg, the rotation looks to be a good deal better. With Patrick Corbin, Joe Ross, Cade Cavalli, Eric Fedde and Josiah Gray in the fold, they have the make of a solid rotation. 

How does Newman fit? 3B appears to be set with Carter Kieboom. But Newman is a potential upgrade at 2B and SS. He could also be a viable super utility player, making him a safe addition. The deal?

Trade partner – Washington Nationals

Victor Roble-OF-MLB 

Most Pirate fans are all too familiar with the name as Neal Huntington insisted on him in any deal for Andrew McCutchen (reportedly) a few Winter Meetings ago. Robles was once a blue chip prospect and like Newman is two years removed from a good season, slashing 255/353/446 with an OPS of 745 and a 2.6 WAR. 

While Robles is projected at 1.7 a 1,7 and a 1.6 WAR over the next three years he is coming off 2 -0.5 WAR seasons. I think a change of scenery is something the Nats would consider here, as he is set to platoon with Lane Thomas and the Nats could use a 2B/SS upgrade. Robles carries a fantastic glove, and all the traits that made him a big time prospect are still there and he’s young enough to unlock it. 

A lot of Nat fans might read this and think Newman isn’t enough to land Robles, and perhaps that’s correct. If the Bucs need to add a prospect I don’t see anything wrong with adding a 35 or 35+ FV or even a good 40 FV kid. It could be well worth it in the end. Gamble away, Mr. Cheringon.

Trade partner- Colorado Rockies

JB – I’m rooting for Justin’s trade in this scenario, but I don’t know if Washington would be interested.  My route is slightly different.. I found a trade partner in Colorado.  They like the glove and maybe the thin air up here (spoiler, I’m in Denver) gives Newman a smidge of pop?  The roster has plenty of room for improvement, so they could play Newman as a super utility or settle him into a role.  

The deal is for lefty Lucas Gilbreath. From Longenhagen at Fangraphs: “Gilbreath took a huge leap and was a wonderful Instructional League surprise at Rockies camp. He went from sitting 89-94 in 2019 to sitting 94-97 during instructs and earned a spot on Colorado’s 40-man. Though he’s come out to start 2021 more in the 93-95 range, Gilbreath’s heater has many of the other characteristics of a bat-missing fastball and it will still be an effective pitch if he lives in that range. This is the arm du jour, backspinning, flat-angled fastball that power pitchers use at the letters. His slider feel has been less consistent but that’s a power, mid-80s breaking ball when it’s located right. If his slider location consistency improves then Gilbreath can be a high-leverage reliever. If not, he’s a fastball-heavy, middle-inning arm.”

If you head over to Baseball Savant, you’ll see his spin rates are in the 88th percentile for that fastball. It sounds like it could be an enticing pitch, and he’s also controllable for 6 more seasons, so may be worthwhile to make a deal work.

Ben Gamel

JB – I feel like, of these three, Gamel has an actual valuable spot on the roster.  He provides 4th outfielder depth, at the very least and also carries the smallest value to others of the three. Also, he isn’t a sunk cost.  It was the old regime that drafted Tucker and Newman in round one and so there is no need to keep them around.  Give ‘em the ol’ change of scenery and move on.  With Gamel, I actually would anticipate a higher price tag for this reason.  If a club were to just offer a $2M value low-level prospect, why take it?  Cherington should take a much higher price because the alternative is Gamel in a valuable role for 2022 on the Pittsburgh Pirates.  

Trade Partner – Oakland Athletics

Nick Allen – SS – 45FV – $6M

From Fangraphs: “Allen is one of the better defensive players in all of the minors. He’s a plus runner with outstanding instincts, quick first steps, smooth actions and more than enough arm to make plays from multiple angles. He’s seen considerable time at second base in his career, which has served to prepare him for the possibility of a future utility role as a big leaguer. Allen straightened up his stance in 2021, allowing his above-average ability to make contact to play better. He’s a bit of a free swinger, and while he’s found some occasional power, his overall pop remains well below average. His overall numbers are solid, but he’s also spent the last two years looking like an All-Star against lefties and a nine-hole hitter against righties, so he’ll need to improve against same-sided pitching. A valuable multi-positional role is the most likely outcome for Allen, but there’s the possibility he becomes an everyday player with enough bat for the bottom of the order to go with the stellar glove work.”

Is Tucupita Marcano this type of player? Yes.  Could they keep one of or both of the guys mentioned above that also fill this role? Mhmm.  But still it’s a valuable player that could be added to the roster for one year of Gamel, and more than that… doesn’t Gamel feel like an A?

JV – Good point, Joe. Gamel has a more tangible value. It’s worth noting  that Gamel could also be a good trade deadline candidate, so not finding him a home here isn’t  the end of the world. Don’t like what you get? Keep him and take a look at flipping him at the deadline. 

With all that working for the Buccos, I too think that BC can get more than the suggested SV. Let’s have fun here. The Marlins are rumored to be a team that wants a certain Pirate OF(Bryan Reynolds), so let’s flip the script here and act like that OF is in fact one Ben Gamel.

Trade Partner – Miami Marlins

Dax Fulton –SP- ETA:2025– 45 FV (6M)

Simply put, you can never have too much pitching. Standing at 6”6’ 230, Dax has the projectable frame teams love. He has three offerings led by a curveball (55 FV) and a 96 MPH fastball that sits in the mid 90’s(50 FV). The stuff is there. Dax missed 2019 with TJS, so there’s some work to be done here, but as Longenhagen points out –

“Fulton throws quality strikes with two impact pitches and already has nascent feel for a third. He had TJ late during the 2019 summer and should return in 2021.” .

Conclusion:

JB – As stated in my Gamel section, Cherington has no connection to Newman or Tucker, why not try to cut bait and get a piece in return that can provide some value? The barrier to entry on these two will be very low.  I do think that Gamel is a piece that sticks around because the value to the Pirates is higher than the value of return he would net, so I think he’ll stay.  Either way, we’re just ready for some baseball. 

JV – Ben Gamel won’t end the season in a Bucco uniform. I think we agree on that, but I tend to agree he starts in one as he’s the perfect trade deadline candidate. Joe, it’s even possible if he hits like he did last year they could invariably get a better package for him come July 31st(or wherever they set the deadline for). But I do think we had to cover the idea he could be looked at. 

And Joe brings up the elephant in the room here: Newman and ColeTuck just aren’t Cherington’s guys. There’s no attachment. They are prime candidates to be moved for that reason alone.

There’s a little bit of a switch here in how Joe and I went about these trades. We went off script, and with the guys we looked at you have to be flexible. You just aren’t getting full value for Newman and Tucker. Time for Cherington to take a gamble and think outside the box. It just could be he gets rewarded for it!