New Rules May Mean New Problems

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-arx95-11c7e10

As the CBA negotiations drag on, we chat about some new rule proposals that may show up when baseball resumes. It doesn’t take much to figure out how the new rules may lead to a slew of issues that will be funny to watch and maddening to those playing the game.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. It’s “30 Minutes Of Bucs” and THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Through The Prospect Porthole: Preparing To Reshuffle The Pirates Minor League Players

2-8-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement On Twitter)

Exactly one month from today the Minor League Baseball Season will officially open for 90 affiliated teams across the United States. For the Pirates this means the Bradenton Marauder, the Greensboro Grasshoppers and the Altoona Curve players will officially take the field for the first time since Getting Better at Baseball Camp 3.0 got into full swing back on February 20th; with the Indianapolis Indians-and all other Triple-A Squads-beating them to the punch by three days.

Now, if you’ve been reading the plethora of articles written by and/or watching the videos posted by Jason Mackey, Alex Stumpf, Tim Williams and Justice delos Santos from Pirate City in Bradenton, it has become more than apparent that there are certain players missing from the practice fields; outside of the obviously noticeable absences of Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller and the like.

Back in November-prior to the MLB Lockout-the Pirates added Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Suwinki to the 40-Man Roster in order to protect them from the MLB Portion of The Rule 5 Draft; that might not even take place anymore. At the time they joined Diego Castillo-added a few days earlier due to his impending Minor League Free Agency-, Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras as players with little to no Major League experience; and in turn, those who were likely to begin the season at Indianapolis, or Altoona in the case of Peguero. However, it’s not like these players would be the only ones taking up a roster spot as the Indians prepare to face off against the Omaha Storm Chasers on April 5th.

As it stands the MLB Active Roster is set at 26, which ultimately means that the other 14 players would help make up the 28-Man Roster in AAA. Yet, with those players-which includes the aforementioned prospects-not able to be there, the void must be filled. Sure, there are players already earmarked for a Triple-A assignment-not on the 40-Man-like Mason Martin, Cal Mitchell, Bligh Madris, Trey McGough, Hunter Stratton, etc., but clearly there are not enough.

So, in order to make up the difference, Ben Cherington and Company-spearheaded by the Director of Coaching and Player Development, John Baker-will have to decide whether these positions can be taken care of internally, or if Minor League Free Agents are the answer; all while trying to balance the Domestic Reserve List, assess the developmental needs and abilities of each prospect, predict how long the lockout will last and prepare for the potential return of players to the 40-Man Roster. None of this sounds simple, because it’s truly not.

Yesterday in his weekly Five Pirates Thoughts At Five, Gary wrote about some potential complications that could arise concerning players such as Cruz, Contreras and Swaggerty due to an abnormal Spring Training schedule, as well as some hypothetical, yet totally conceivable scenarios involving Madris, Cody Bolton and Cam Vieaux. Honestly, Gary could have used several other players in these examples, but each of his points still stand; and so do all of the questions that follow.

Following a shortened 2020 Spring Training and subsequent 60 game MLB Season it was determined that four weeks would be the minimum amount of time needed for players to prepare, in an attempt to prevent injuries. And, even though it was reported by league sources, the concerns originated from pitchers and agents; but that really doesn’t matter at this point. What is important is that this four week guideline pertains to players preparing for a MiLB Season just as much as those preparing for a MLB one; which basically brings us full circle.

In one month I will be standing on grass in left field at People’s Natural Gas Field, as my 5 year-old rolls down the hill for the hundredth time. As I look across the field, who exactly am I going to see? And, will it be any different a few weeks later when I’m standing behind the Tiki Terrace at Canal Park?

Those are the questions; I guess I’ll have to wait for the answers.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

3-7-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I started writing about the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019, at the end of the season and my second piece ever was calling for everyone to be fired. Then I watched Travis Williams and Ben Cherington come in and ultimately would see Spring Training shut down due to COVID before they could do much of anything.

It’s been a hell of a weird ride. I guess you could call 2021 a “normal” season, but carryover from 2020 and the effect it had particularly on pitching staffs was a constant topic and it also represented the second season that had this CBA negotiation hanging over its head.

Throughout this, you all have helped Craig and I grow this site and our podcasts. With bad baseball, labor strife and everything else, you all still stepped up and kept this thing rolling. For that, we’re super appreciative, I have no words for how great it’s been to watch this community form.

We’re also really happy to have seen so many join the site as contributors. Like Justin Verno and Joe Boyd with their trade and prospect work. Ethan Smith the host of Locked on Pirates who’s going to help us cover games (when and if we play) and write some freestyle pieces too. Anthony DiFilippo host of City of Bridges Podcast who’s about to head off to college now.

It’s been great, and while we struggle to think up topics to write about today, we never forget that we’re growing through all this, and it all starts with you, and you telling people you care about to check us out. Thanks to everyone!

Now, let’s see if I have 5 thoughts in the old noodle!

1. Rule Changes Take the Stage

The players union in their latest proposal to MLB, agreed to allow the league to implement rule changes with reduced review time, currently set to a year, all the way back to 45 days. This would be for 3 specific changes to the game.
1. Selective Shift Banning
2. Larger Bases
3. Implementing Pitch Clocks

First, I find it weird everytime discussion of the on field product is given audience when there is no on field product, so let’s just get that out of the way.

I see people claiming this is a ban of shifting, and it’s not, it’s a ban on certain kinds of shifting. In other words, they aren’t going to do away with first baseman holding a runner on, or third baseman changing home, its going to remain focused on keeping 2 infielders on each side of second, and at least one foot in the dirt.

Larger bases, well, from what I hear its not going to look much different, but they hope it makes reviews a bit clearer, and potentially helps the players avoid some collisions.

Pitch clocks in the test the league run in MiLB has provably resulted in an average game time drop of 21 minutes.

Now, I could argue any time savings from the pitch clock could be eliminated by the increased offense added by the shift banning, but it would seem they all agree on these rules and we should start to brace ourselves for their implementation come 2023.

More on this as I digest it a bit more. None of these would take effect before 2023.

2. Defensive Backsliding?

The Pirates were one of the best defensive teams in baseball last year, and arguably the best of the bunch was Jacob Stallings. Most people have kinda given Roberto Perez a pass as at least being comparable which if healthy, he certainly could be behind the dish. But the Pirates who made defensive improvement in 2021 a focus, and successfully so I might add, are probably heading for a bit of backsliding.

First, I don’t find it incredibly likely Perez handles anywhere near as many games as Jake did. First base looks to take a step back and from Colin Moran so, take that where you want. If Oneil Cruz replaces Newman I think we’ll see a bit of a defensive step back there too.

Adam Frazier was only here for half a season but whomever plays the majority at 2nd could be less of a stalwart.

Now, in theory, they’d get an entire season out of Hayes and certainly Travis Swaggerty could step in and improve the outfield, but overall, I’d say it likely trends in the wrong direction. Not a fall off the table, but a bit of a correction if you will.

3. Is it Time to Officially Cancel the Rule 5 Draft?

Folks, here we are a month out from MiLB games starting up, with players all at minor league spring training currently and in theory there could still be a Rule 5 draft before this is all settled.

This is simply insane.

Time to cancel it in my mind. Part of the reason for the Rule 5 draft is to allow players to get opportunities they weren’t getting or at least get it quicker. Once players reported and headed to training sites, man, I’m sorry that’s just not right for any of these guys.

Sure you’d get a crack at MLB but with little to no preparation time. Next to no ability to talk to your new coaching staff, acclimate to the new environment and in some cases prepare to skip 2 full levels in arguably the hardest league to stick in the first place.

To me, this is already beyond obvious, but until I hear it, I’ll assume they still are pretending it’ll happen.

4. 40 Man Frustration

Of all the bull in the steaming pile that is this work stoppage, almost nothing frustrates me more than the guys on the 40-man who were going to either push for a shot this Spring or start in AAA and now have to just sit.

Can’t practice at team facilities. Can’t work on that thing or two the team told them they wanted to see, or at least can’t show the improvement off.

Travis Swaggerty lost all of 2020, most of 2021 and now faces at least a shortened 2022. What is there to say beside that sucks? The 2022 Pirates don’t figure to be much more than they were in 2021 but any optimism comes from this first wave of rookies poised to pressure the 26-man roster. As it stands right now, Roansy Contreras could very well just start throwing his program as pitchers like Cody Bolton or Cam Vieaux have a full month under their belt it stands to reason he’s not going to be the first call up.

It’s just a change that I don’t want to speak for you, but I’ve just started processing. I mean, what if Bligh Madris is killing it in AAA and now a month in here come these 3 outfielders on the 40 man. Do you stop playing him because he’s not on the 40? So many things that typically are predictable, now become chaotic. At least part of this agreement is about paying young players and not manipulating their time, all I can think is the very situation itself is going to ensure we see no fruit from whatever they agree on in 2022.

In my mind, the very second spring training was not going to be normal, players like Oneil Cruz, Roansy and Swaggerty lost their shot to make it out of camp.

Right or wrong, that’s how I see it.

5. Were These Negotiations Rancid From the Jump?

Sure seems that way.

In 2019 rumblings about what this CBA negotiation would entail started creeping out and 2020 gave us a preview of just how hard even the simplest of things was going to be for these sides to agree on.

Now we’re watching tit for tat and nothing moving measurably toward the other while each side snipes about the unwillingness of the other to negotiate in good faith.

Most fans have an agenda too, so try hard to squash all that for this entry. I’m more interested in how we knew this whole thing was going to blow up for the best part of 2 and a half years, yet nobody worked on any kind of framework to start moving the ball.

It’s clear the owners aren’t looking for any changes that matter economically. And it also seems clear the players at least think they’re evening out the percentage of revenue they’ll receive if their ideas go through.

We knew a lockout was coming for over a year. And we knew specifically because the CBT was expiring, so the only way to move forward would be good faith, which both lack for the other.

This whole thing smells like furniture shopping to me. You know how many of those stores offer zero interest for 18 months or 24 months? Well, you know that if you don’t have it all paid off by then they’re going to hammer you with interest and penalties so punishing you’re going to pay for that couch twice. Even if you know you don’t have the money when you sign, everyone thinks things will be better in 18 months right? Thing is, when you do eventually get through all that and pay it off, it’s time for a new couch.

I honestly think both sides here thought the other side would give in. We still might be in that territory, but it’s at least pretty clear now that there are some items on the list to each that have to be considered too important to drop.

They’ll reach a deal at some point, but neither side is going to actually address the things that they felt they had to have, at least not enough to keep it off the table in 5 years.

I don’t know the particulars yet, nobody does of course, but I’ll easily predict right here, right now that we’ll be doing all of this again in 5 years. Mostly the same topics too.

Never underestimate the ability of these two entities to need each other fiercely and despise each other just as much.

Idle MLB Leads to Speculation and Assumption for Pirates Fans

3-6-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates are going to trade Bryan Reynolds once the CBA is signed! Oh No! They’re are two teams who could afford the prospect cost! Jason Mackey asked Bryan and he didn’t hear from the Pirates before the lockout about an extension! AHHHHHHHHH!

Look, let’s calm down a bit here folks.

I’m not here to tell you nothing bad is going to happen, or that the Pirates have suddenly changed who they are as a franchise. That said, maybe we should at least give equal billing to all rumors, not just the bad ones.

Don’t get me wrong, this fan base has been bent over the desk for quite some time, so it’s not like I expect beacons of positivity out there. Rumors are exactly that, rumors.

Do this gig long enough and you start getting sources. Some better than others, some more reliable, others less so. Do it for a lot longer or for a much bigger outlet and you get even more. Have you seen any rumors of Reynolds impending trade that anyone claimed to have a Pirates source? Thought so.

In fact, the only things we’ve seen seem to paint a picture of wanting to keep Reynolds. Ben Cherington directly said he wants to build around him. His asks, according to sources from other teams used in the reporting showed a consistent theme of asking for incredible packages. Packages in return that quite frankly would make Neil Huntington look like he pulled the wool over the Rays eyes with his deal and probably put the opposing GM in instant hot seat territory.

There are reasons for all of this. Bryan is a really good player, and a safe bet to continue being good. The Pirates have still not signed anyone to a bigger contract than Jason Kendall, STILL. Finally, from a national perspective, most don’t understand a rebuild, or when it stops being about off loading talent, and turns into letting it mature.

Is Reynolds getting traded? Well, not unless a team would actually come close to Cherington’s insane ask. That’s what I’m told, and I’ve seen nothing to refute it. Is he getting extended? I know there was an offer, I know they plan to make another.

I don’t have yes or no for you on either subject because that’s not the reality of how this stuff works. Everything is possible because you can’t ever account for what a person or rival executive will do. Reynolds said he wants to be a Pirate, but he certainly is capable of changing his mind. Let’s say he tells the Pirates, yeah, I’ve been doing some thinking and I’m not interested in signing an extension. Well, that changes things a bit doesn’t it? Suddenly that insane package turns into “kinda nuts” and down from there.

The other side of this is another Ben Cherington quote where he said the Pirates will be competitive earlier than most think.

Man, that doesn’t sound like a guy who thinks he’s got to move his best player who isn’t a free agent for 4 more years right now.

The bottom line is simply this, the Pirates have been a bad baseball team in an aggressive rebuild and until they do something that directly says they are now on the upswing like an extension or signing. Hell, even a trade of their own to acquire something for the MLB club would do. Until then the rumors are just going to keep coming.

Ben Cherington probably doesn’t care about the rumors, after all, he’s the one who knows what he’s doing, but executives often don’t see what the constant drum beat does to fans. Content creators do, because especially when we’re in a dead zone for any stories that aren’t about players and owners walking across a friggin’ parking lot.

Again, everyone who does this long enough develops sources. When you find someone local outside of the blog world who has one saying the Pirates are shopping Reynolds, then worry. Until then, it’s just something other markets would like to happen, coupled with a mentally abused fan base preparing for the worst. Because worst is typically what they’ve been fed.

Everyone Has An Agenda

2-5-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement On Twitter)

As I glance across the current landscape of Major League Baseball-and more accurately the social media side of things-I am immediately transported back in time to the playgrounds of my youth; where two young boys are arguing over who’s dad could beat up the other’s. Although neither of them has likely seen their father in physical altercation, both hold steadfast in their belief, that if given the opportunity their Dad would be able to physically belittle nearly any other man on the planet; mostly based on the experience of having their Dad lift them over his head, or carry them upstairs-flung over their shoulder-with little to no effort throughout their childhood.

Whether they are right or wrong it makes no difference, because in the end the chances of the fight actually taking place are slim to none. Yet, they still argue; fully committed to a preconceived notion that is very loosely based in fact. Heels dug in, nearly ready to fight each other; often ignoring anything that could be used to show they are incorrect in any way.

Quite few years down the road these same two boys find themselves on opposite sides of a classroom debate. Naturally, as is almost always the case, each young man has taken a position that is nearly a perfect match for a previously established ideology concerning the topic at hand.

In another hotly contested back and forth points are made from all directions in an attempt to prove that they are the one who’s argument is valid. Once again, practically all reasoning is out the window. The only thing that matters is the desire to emerge victorious.

Which brings us to present day, and the current contentious CBA negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA; or in essence the two little boys all grown up. But, only now they have each have groups of crusaders on either side of aisle, with the majority firmly entrenched in the players’ camp; as leaks of information are tossed around wildly from the rival PR Machines, in attempt to garner support. Meanwhile, individual combatants gather their own findings-sometimes in an exaggerated manner-to support the cause; adding it into the already muddied waters with reckless abandon

Then there’s those of us in the middle, who judge and ultimately challenge both sides with a balanced approach, or at least what we believe to be equal; ultimately being seen as bootlicker by many, when honestly I couldn’t care less about MLB’s Owners or the MLBPA being seen as more right and just.

But, unfortunately everyone has an agenda; even me. I write for a Pittsburgh Pirates Blog and have a Pittsburgh Pirates Podcast; not a Bradenton Marauders, Greensboro Grasshoppers, Altoona Curve or Indianapolis Indians Blog and Podcast. Fans just aren’t as interested in what is going on down in the Minor Leagues; especially in the Pirates Fanbase.

So, just like almost every other baseball fan I sit and wait for any bit of news concerning the CBA Negotiations to drop on my feed; even though it usually contains the spin of which side is more wrong, or who cares more.

And, in that instant all I can hear is, “My Dad could beat up your Dad!”

Well, Make it Count MLB

3-2-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Since MLB locked out the players I’ve said something repeatedly.

If you cost me one game, you better make it count.

Well, they’ve cost us games, and yes, now I’m moving the goal posts.

I’d have been underwhelmed if MLB signed what was on the table yesterday, but I’d have been ok with it too. Status quo isn’t going to fix what ails this game, even with variations built in, but if it was done and cost fans no games, I was prepared to accept it and move on. Even as I know the issues that created all this contentiousness in the first place still exist. Even if I knew we’d simply be talking about the exact same issues in 5 years, I’d have swallowed it and moved into the season willing to accept the will wasn’t there and imbalanced baseball is better than no baseball.

Point is, now you better make something better.

This has already and will surely lose some fans as it is. So even if the best case scenario at this point plays out and they meet in the middle on everything left up for grabs, now you’re looking at a system that’s even worse for teams like Pittsburgh, and that certainly isn’t going to win fans back to the game.

Look, despite what you see on the never ending virtue signalling box we call social media, there simply aren’t a lot of fans who are going to tune in because those players finally got more money. I’m making no statement here about what they deserve, who’s right or wrong, I’m just stating a fact, none of the increased payroll across the league is going to sell one ticket. Especially as designed by the players themselves. Add to the CBT threshold and the few teams that can fathom touching it will simply continue to sell the same tickets they always did, and their TV deals will still bring in what they bring in.

Nobody is going to turn a game on Thursday night because that rookie now makes 700K instead of 535K.

I stress again, it’s not about right and wrong, it’s about actually fixing what’s wrong with the game. You know, the quiet part that up until yesterday I’d never seen uttered by an MLB executive.

Wow.

You could tell he almost thought better of it too if you were watching.

To me, there still must be a few in between steps before MLB would consider trying for the nuclear option. Much of this lockout was spent laying down elements of a legal argument though, even if many didn’t catch on. Specific words like “Last, Best Offer”. Proposals like a floor and lower tax threshold that packed additional revenue sharing mechanisms, even when quickly pulled off the table were part of an effort to illustrate that they listened and pulled it, even if they wanted it. It was more about getting the formal proposal on the record than achieving it.

5 million dollar incremental creeping toward the other side shows a willingness to compromise, which also will help when mediation eventually takes place. On and on.

When I say make something better I mean measurably better. I can already hear two things before I even finish this piece. “They aren’t going to get a cap, don’t say it!” and “A cap system is what they need to do!”

I get it, and I think I’ve made my feelings very clear on what path I think the game should take. I still don’t think they have the fortitude to go after it though, so let’s talk about some things MLB could potentially try to solve this impasse, and yes, I’ll call it that even if Rob Manfred isn’t ready to use the word in a legal sense. Specifically what I think could get a deal done, and potentially make the Pirates lot in life a bit better.

The CBT

The players want it increased drastically and they want it increased because if they’re honest they know a few teams would spend more. MLB (well, at least 10-11 teams) want to make sure it doesn’t go up and make the spending gap that much bigger. It also hasn’t increased, not even to a level that keeps up with inflation. And I mean normal inflation not where we are right now.

I raise it. I raise it to 245 million. I leave the penalties right where they are too. Thing is, the Dodgers already don’t care about it, so it’ll change little for them. Everyone else will just avoid it but it’ll give them a bit more breathing room.

Now, those 10-11 teams aren’t going to take this lying down, in fact that’s why we are where we are. And pretending the tax is going to lead to more spending on the low end is silly. Let me explain why.

When you set your budget at your house, do you plan to spend based on your average paycheck or do you go all Chevy Chase and spend your bonus before you get it? I mean, I know which one smart people do.

If you are dependant on teams making a conscious decision to exceed the threshold in order to fund low spenders, I’m not sure how you expect A. the teams exceeding it to not wake up (in fact, welcome to where we are) or B. the low spenders to count on it as funding they can forecast and use as steady income.

So there must be some kind of mechanism in place that forces more spending on the low end, and more importantly, funds it.

Low End Spending

First of all, the increase in league minimum salary, even if it stays at 700K will bump up the payroll for every team. Even teams who right now are close to the tax threshold will likely now exceed it if it isn’t increased further.

We should also admit, there are several teams that are not spending what they could. That’s an elusive number. You can go by the revenue sharing numbers but right now there is no mechanism to demand where those dollars go. For instance, if the Orioles feel it’s better for them to invest 20 million dollars into training facilities than buying a year of JA Happ (pretending for a moment he’d sign there anyhow) who’s to say they’re wrong? It’s not like Happ is going to put them in the conversation, he’d just raise payroll and maybe give them a few more wins.

To me, this is easily handled by the floor that would typically come with a cap system, but if we really must dance around it, I’d say there has to be some provable mechanism built in that forces 80% of sharing to be spent on payroll, or that dollar figure rolls over into the next year and the percentage increases by whatever amount they fell short in the previous season. So if they spent 70%, next year it will be 90% get it?

If that number gets every team to a payroll of roughly 160, it’s not perfect, but it’s better and I’d argue, for everyone.

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

The owners are at 30 Million, the players are at 100 Million, or 105 Million depending on where it landed. Regardless, this is totally new spending and whether you think it’s right or fair doesn’t really matter, that’s fact. In other words, it doesn’t matter how wrong you think it is that players who come up and win Rookie of the Year don’t get big paydays, it’s still new spending.

Spending that as I understood it would be funded by each team equally funding the pool.

So, let’s say Oneil Cruz comes up and just goes off, wins the Rookie of the Year. The Pirates would pay him his 700K minimum salary and under MLB’s latest proposal he’d also get money from this bonus pool to compensate him for being exceptional. They’d also award him a year of service time which I think you can understand would hurt a team like Pittsburgh.

If this thing was set at 100 Million the pool would cost each team 3.33 Million, at the league’s proposed level it would cost 1 Million per.

Neither of those sound crazy right? The players want this to effect roughly 125 players, the league wants 30. This part confuses me, because I’ll be honest, at 125 I think you’d see players that had precious little real impact wind up making more than some borderline veteran replacement level players. Not sure that’s what you want either.

I’d nix this for a couple reasons. 1, I don’t see it working as they expect. In other words I don’t see it causing teams to call guys up faster if anything because we should always assume a loophole will be exploited, I see it actually leading to more players being held back if only to cause chances of winning ROY to become minimal. If I can keep your at bats down, I’ll take you right out of the conversation. To me this just creates another thing based on trust that won’t be worthy of that feeling.

If they don’t nix it. I say make it 30 million and progressively split it amongst the top 10 Rookie of the Year finalists in each league. Win it and get a 2 million dollar bonus, and so on and so forth. And I’d eliminate the penalty to the team. Maybe a compromise there could be making their last year of arbitration a restricted free agent year. That usually gets more money for the player, and it’d be earlier but not insanely so.

Revenue Sharing

We touched on it a bit up there where I proposed a percentage based approach to spending it, but it’ll need increased and/or the league’s already universally shared funds for streaming and national tv need disproportionally (and I’d add temporarily) distributed in order to fund that spending. Temporarily because over time this number is going to increase and at some point it will become unfair to teams that right now are the fat cats. I’m not looking to save some teams by crippling others, I’m looking for balance.

Conclusion

See what I did there?

I’m sure you do, I basically created a cap system without ever uttering the words. It’s not as aggressive as I’d be if I were simply looking to implement one, that’d be much easier to write up. Players get 50-55% of revenues. Cap and Floor would be no more than 25 million apart. Revenue Sharing would ensure every team could afford it complete with accountability.

Even what Baseball has right now, well, had anyway, was a cap system. A toothless cap system. An ineffective cap system, but a cap system nonetheless.

We get lost thinking this has to be what the NFL does, or what the NHL is doing, but in reality, the world is your oyster.

Start with these principles:
1. Players and owners are partners, both deserve to make money
2. Media markets matter, and payroll disparity creates a constant environment of trying to keep spending down
3. Baseball is unique, the system should be too

I’m not looking for anyone to take this piece and expect it to be implemented, I’m just trying to illustrate that there is room to actually come out of this with a better system for everyone, even if nobody says the words salary cap.

Someone very smart who I worked for years ago taught me something in a meeting one day. I started a sentence with “I hesitate to mention…” and he interrupted me quickly. He said “Gary, never start a sentence with that phrase. It immediately makes me feel you don’t think it’s to be broached”

He’s right, and salary cap has become that for this league. So find a way to create the same effect without the words.

This can be done, and eventually if the league as we know it is to survive, it will. I can think of no better time than when you’ve already cost us games.

Make it count MLB, or we’ll hold you accountable, one way or another.

No Deal. MLB & MLBPA Remain Deeply Divided

3-1-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Welp.

Rob Manfred has officially cancelled the first two series of the regular season. For the Pirates that will be a series against the Cardinals and Reds.

The two sides stayed up last night and talked, and bargained, and worked at an agreement but in the end the factions involved are simply too divided.

I always try to simplify this stuff for you, and tonight will be no different, but simplifying the stances isn’t the same as pretending the solutions are simple.

FIrst of all, MLBPA has a much harder time herding cats on their end. There is no way they can poll every player for every issue, every time. In other words, when MLB finally upped their offer on minimum salary to 700K, it’s not like that went out to a vote of all MLB players, instead it was left to the executive committee and the other two issues that have been the biggest sticking points simply wouldn’t move.

Those issues are the CBT that still sits about 50 million apart and the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool that sits closer to 85 million.

I’m told within MLB there are 10-11 teams who have coalesced on those two issues in particular. And yes, your Pirates are one of them. In MLB, you need 8 of the 30 teams to prevent ratification, so having 10-11 teams would make their wishes about as close to iron clad as you’re going to get.

Now, the money the players want isn’t insane. From a percentage perspective it’s reasonable actually, the problem is it wouldn’t be applied evenly and many teams simply can’t see allowing a tax threshold they certainly can’t reach right now go up another 30-40 million and just shrug it off.

If you’re a Pirates fan, and you wanted to see Bob Nutting stand up and not let his team get even more steamrolled, he’s done that. He’s also not spent what he could and that shouldn’t be ignored. That’s part of what makes this so difficult

Speaking on the CBT threshold issue specifically as MLB only proposed to raise it roughly 5%.

“We have a payroll disparity problem, to weaken the only mechanism in the agreement that is designed to promote some semblance of competitive balance is something that i don’t think the club group is willing to do.”

As a Pirates fan, I have to be honest, it felt good to hear it out loud. That’s really what this entire thing is about and a point that we simply aren’t going to get past.

This is going to hurt, and young players will feel it first and the most.

“Our position is that games that are not played, players will not get paid for” Rob Manfred

Now, when will they meet again?

“Every single issue I believe we have made the last offer, you make your own determination about who outta go next.” – Rob Manfred

Sounds to me like they won’t meet again until Thursday at the earliest but if they felt dug in enough to lose games today, agreeing on Thursday doesn’t seem plausible.

I could write a ton more, but I’d rather digest this and not write something I’ll wish I worded differently the next day.

So let’s leave it there for today.

Dark day for the sport and the league.

Let’s Make A Deal?

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-c89cm-11bc945

They went late into the night on Monday trying to hammer out a new CBA before MLB’s self-imposed deadline to prevent a delay to the 2022 season. We also have Daniel Victor from Prospects 1500 to tell you why Mitch Keller is about to turn a big corner…if we get to the season…maybe…who knows.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. It’s “30 Minutes Of Bucs” and THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

2-28-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well everyone, it’s hard to believe, but here we are on the last day of February in 2022 already. Normally, I’d already have heard stories from friends checking out Spring Training ballgames, and we’d have already argued about who should win the outfield spots up for grabs. Instead, we’re debating which major faction of baseball hates the game worse.

Let’s dig in today.

1. Selling the Drama?

There seems to be a groundswell of people who are mad at Jon Heyman for tweeting a sense of optimism that an agreement could be reached.

It was met almost immediately by this…

Zack for those of you who don’t know is a pitcher who has been in the room the entire time.

I normally wouldn’t waste space here on Keith Olbermann but he too went after Heyman, claiming he was purposefully playing a role for the owners by putting out false positivity only so he’d have the opportunity to blame the players when it didn’t happen.

Now, Keith typically accepts unnamed sources as fact, so I guess this only applies to “sports journalism”

Guys, we’re trying too hard.

Some dude Jon talks too probably said he felt optimistic, and he put it out there. I can count on one hand the number of national baseball writers who’ve had a negative word to say about the players, like ever, so pardon me if I don’t think there’s a backdoor plot going on.

2. Don’t Let Success Get in the Way of Improvement

I saw this quote from John Baker the other day talking about the development system the Pirates are building and it made me think a few things. First, the cynical of you (most, lol) are just going to laugh at it, they haven’t had any success.

The other thing though that struck me, they don’t want a guy to have a good week and believe the work is done. In fact they don’t want a player like Reynolds to feel that way. Much like naming their development camp “Get Better at Baseball” sometimes the obvious is best. The evidence is building up on guys who have excelled under an environment that focuses on individualized plans driven by the players themselves. Max Kranick, Matt Fraizer, even Carmen Mlodzinski, leveling up, and making strides. Each one to a man credits the freedom to evolve.

We are still a ways off from seeing results at PNC, but I’m not going to get mad I’m seeing it on the way up while we wait.

3. After Today, Officially Missing Games

I hate to say I told you so, but, I’ve been telling you since before the 2020 season started. These issues are bigger than many anticipated and I’m not surprised honestly, if you spend all your time carrying the jock of either side of this thing you’re bound to miss why something that sounds completely reasonable isn’t close to doable through the eyes of the other side of the table.

I understand that most people aren’t digging in on every little aspect of this crap, trust me. I do it almost daily and feel a need to shower and scrub ’til I bleed when I’m done. Suffice to say, this isn’t just “those greedy b*stards!”, no, it’s a combination of a ton of emotion, past failure and mistrust. I tried to sum up some of the thinking that goes into the most contested issues recently, but trust me, you can’t pick a subject, no matter how small that isn’t riddled with hurt feelings and past experiences.

Thing is, when I predicted this, it wasn’t because I’m a generally pessimistic person, it was because when I added up all the wants I knew about back then it was enough to know this was happening. The lists have done nothing but grow since.

The owners reportedly said in today’s meeting that they could miss a month of games, a clear signal that they aren’t close to budging on the things they hold dear. We’ll see how long the players can hold out. More importantly we’ll see who’s left to watch it when they figure it out.

4. The Interest Drop is Palpable

Doing what we do, we get a different kind of insight into what these negotiations are doing to loyal baseball fans. In fact if you’re reading this, you probably do too. The interactions are down drastically, and if this was say the middle of July, I might question if we’re doing a good job running this site or our shows.

Conversations are painful right now. Want to talk about the actual team, well they won’t play for a while so that only can go on so long. Wanna talk about the negotiations? It’s going to be a short talk that ends in shrugs and “hope they figure it out”.

How about prospects? Well, that’s fun but what is a prospect if there is no major league to aspire to?

This whole thing has been a conversation ender.

I just refuse to pick a side and start crying they’re being hard done by, because to me and my fandom, if they don’t come out of it with a system that makes winning and being in the conversation for every free agent in all 32 markets the game didn’t get better.

That’s where I am, and it’s where I’ll stay.

5. What Could Actually Help the Pirates?

A new owner! Ha, beat ya to it.

I mean in the CBA, lets look beyond a cap, let’s just focus on small things that could have increased their chances of competing.

A revenue sharing increase coupled with harder confines for how to spend it. That’s about it.

Being that the players are anti revenue sharing, anti floor, really anti anything that stunts spending or takes money from the few teams who are flush with cash.

Reality is, I don’t see one proposal from either side that will actually help the Pirates, unless you want expanded playoffs as a carrot on a stick. There simply isn’t anything on the table that makes this club more competitive, or forces Nutting to spend whatever you fantasize he’s got tucked under his mattress.

To we Pirates fans, I’m not sure all the other CBA stuff really matters. It’s not going to improve, so I’m inclined to just root for them to go back to what they had. Once we lose games though, better make it worth it.

As MLB’s Deadline Approaches, Why Can’t They Just Come Together?

2-27-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Baseball is in trouble.

A simple statement that when made at the beginning of this process brought down a bucket full of screen captures showing the league’s overall revenue increases in recent years, and scoffing in general.

Here’s the thing though, it was true then, and it’s true now.

Denying it, would be like saying because America’s GDP increased the poverty line doesn’t exist. MLB isn’t an equitable system, and it will eventually catch up with them, in fact in many ways, we’re watching it happen.

Let’s address it today by addressing some of the comments I most often see and try to talk to each one.

Why Won’t The Small Market Clubs Just Band Together and Force Change?

Well, who’s to say they haven’t? I mean do you think the Yankees are unwilling to budge on revenue sharing? The secret is in the sacred cows the owners came to the table with and things they won’t budge on. Bottom line, it’s fair to say they’ve banded together to hold the line.

For instance, there isn’t a world where this game comes back without some version of the CBT (Competitive Balance Tax), and a strengthened version at that. Again, you don’t think the Dodgers are fighting for that do you?

Now, what you’re really asking here is why don’t they force a salary cap system right? Couple things here, one the owners went too hard in the paint on this in 1994 and it led to calls and ultimately a ruling that they were not negotiating in good faith. And second, it has to be pretty common knowledge that some of those small market owners (you all might know one) aren’t even spending close to the revenue sharing figure on payroll so it’d be hard to sit there and argue they’ve tried as hard as they could to make the current system work for them.

Now, I know and you know that if one team can spend 280 million on payroll and one can’t really get above 160, at least not consistently, if everything went perfectly, the result won’t be different very often, but being completely fair to both sides I think you could see why unifying on something as drastic as instituting a cap system is difficult. Even this is being too fair to the big spenders, if MLB were to lift restrictions, we’d easily have two teams, maybe three, spending upwards of 350-400 million within a decade. All while the lower tier potentially becomes even less capable of competing.

These Two Sides Are Killing Baseball Over A Few Million Dollars

Oh come on.

It’s far more than that and you do a disservice to any point you make after this statement by pretending it is. This is Millions of dollars we’re talking about. In fact on just one subject, the pre-arbitration bonus pool for young players these sides are approximately 95 Million apart. On a completely new concept that has never been part of any CBA (AKA new spending) the Players are at 115 million and the owners are at 20.

That’s one subject. Just one. The CBT, well depending on which year of the proposed deal you’re talking about they are between 31 and 51 million dollars apart, and that doesn’t even speak to the additional penalties and taxes MLB wants to bake in which would essentially make it a hard cap anyhow. A hard cap with no floor that forces accountability because if you had that you’d have to use a bad word one side can’t hear or say.

Keep in mind, I don’t even have to tell you who I think is right or wrong to show how wrong this way of thinking is. These problems are real.

If Everyone Saw This Coming, Why Didn’t They Fix It Before Now?

This one is really tough.

Let’s just say, kick the can down the road isn’t just a saying. Those of us, and I’m in no way lumping myself in with the journalists who cover these things, just saying folks who pay attention to this stuff even when it isn’t up for discussion of threatening baseball games, knew from the moment baseball failed to structure the economics entering the cable tv era of MLB way back in the early 90’s this moment would come.

The inequity in the game grew fast, in fact most of you who are close to my age probably remember asking yourself if the Yankees were ever going to not be at least in the ALCS for a minute there.

The league saw it too, because despite popular belief, most owners actually do want to, and care about winning. They addressed it, by fighting for and instituting the CBT. Now I’d argue it hasn’t worked as they intended. I think they believed it would act as a cap from the jump and instead for quite some time it was just ignored. Only recently have teams started reversing course and trying to stay under, after going through multiple cycles of paying the penalties for exceeding it. They’ve now felt the penalties and learned that even they (and by they I’m speaking to teams like Philly, Boston, Chicago, Texas, LAA) couldn’t keep up with those who could almost double the damn thing if they wanted to.

Essentially, as with just about any rule, someone finds a loophole or someone realizes it isn’t working for everyone. It’s not by accident MLB is looking to tighten the penalties and barely raise the CBT.

Meanwhile, the players have allowed rising salaries for the top 1% (we used to like the 99% didn’t we?) to dictate nearly every negotiation since fighting off a salary cap way back when with an assist from the Feds. We’re still seeing that this year, with one thing different, this time the players have a growing upswell of the young and talented players pushing to have their rights protected. Remember that can being punted forward from earlier? Yup, here it is, young players.

The very existence of Tampa Bay, Oakland, Minnesota, and the realization by mid-large market clubs that they could only compete to a point, led to a shift in how young ball players were brought to the game along with less willingness to pay for 33+ veteran players who were statistically proven to only provide marginally better performance.

It’s given them more of a voice than they’ve had in the past, and has become too loud even for Scott Boras’ crew to ignore. Plus, he’s starting to see some of those early on mega deals getting signed more frequently, threatening his ‘take ’em to free agency every time’ philosophy. For his own revenue stream he may need to shift some of his client base to that demographic or miss the gravy train. Better show ’em you care eh Scott? Wink Wink.

Those 33+ guys, well they just have to take less in what used to be their best years to cash in. The big spenders aren’t going to sign them for big dollars, at least not a ton of them. There’s only so many jobs out there after all and they have young players too.

Here’s a terrific way to put why this has blown up from Sportico.

MLB teams added well over $1 billion in total annual revenue between 2015 and 2019, salaries barely budged. The divergent growth trajectories of revenues and salaries have fueled animosity and sowed distrust between the league and union.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2021/mlb-lockout-baseball-player-salary-growth-1234648078/

Given everything I mentioned there, you see why getting young players paid is such a focus?

Again, I could prove a cap system fixes 90% of the problems these two sides have, but for now, that’s why it’s coming to a head right this moment. If that group of teams I mentioned, even taking into account the Mets have jumped back in with both feet on spending, had just continued spending, there’d have been more money for the small market teams to spend too due to the tax and thereby the ratio doesn’t get this whacky at least.

But here we are.

The Owners Could End This Lockout Anytime And Just Go to Spring Training

True statement. But loaded.

They could certainly end it and default to the last CBA but there are two reasons they won’t. One, the CBT that enough member teams deem worth dying over sunset, separately from the CBA so it would be a year of wild wild west. And everyone knows what happens when the horse is out of the barn. Secondly, they don’t trust that the players wouldn’t simply strike mid season and hold the playoffs hostage. On top of that, we’re already here, the fight isn’t going away if they simply pushed it to 2023. No GMs want to operate under the uncertainty all of this has brought to their doorstep. I mean think about it, we don’t even know if we’ll have a Rule 5 draft this year, I’d imagine that might have changed some moves already made, don’t you?

No way do I want to drag it out or worse fight all season long and distract from the game.

No, this isn’t a serious suggestion. They simply can’t just end the lock out. I mean the can, but they can’t, well you get what I’m saying right?

Can They Seriously Not Even Agree on the Number of Playoff Teams?

No, they really can’t.

This is really the only true chip, save their actual talents on the field, the players have. They know they have the owners by the short hairs on this one because MLB has already sold the television rights for 14 team playoffs.

There’s a reason MLB tied the players desire to have a draft lottery to this. They’re at 6 right now, I get the impression MLB would easily add to that number if the players will come up from 12 on playoff teams. In fact I’ll bet right now if this thing gets resolved, we’ll have 14 playoff teams and 6-8 lottery teams in the draft.

A Cap Isn’t Happening! Stop Talking About It.

In a word, No. I won’t stop talking about it. Anymore than I’ll stop saying the US Congress and Senate need to institute term limits while acknowledging they themselves would have to vote for them.

It would instantly fix almost everything that’s wrong with this game, and just because they aren’t going to do it doesn’t mean we should sit here and pretend they’re going to come up with some magic formula of convoluted money shuffling that makes it work.

So when a writer whines about how out of whack revenues and payrolls are, all I can really say is, man that’s tough, I sure wish there was a system out there that would tie payroll to revenue.

If you can look at the economic discrepancies in this league and with a straight face claim it’s not an issue for the health of the game, regardless of wanting a cap or not, I’m not sure how to move the conversation forward.

If that’s ok, yeah, I’m not going to convince you a cap is needed. I’d also add, by talking about a cap system, I’m not claiming it’s happening right now, I’m advocating for something I firmly believe could turn MLB back into a hotly contested fight for the pennant in places that hadn’t experienced it in more than spurts for decades.

It’s not about your hopes or dreams being shattered, it’s about knowing there is an alternative, a viable solution out there, and not seeing a sport I truly love even consider using it as a template to work from.

We’re going to lose games folks, and I don’t see much changing for the better if you fan a market like Pittsburgh. At least not from what’s proposed right now.

Stay Tuned…