Another Minor League Trimming On the Horizon?

2-15-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Rob Manfred has had a couple very thematic goals since becoming commissioner of Major League Baseball. First, to find a way to improve the pace of play in the game, and second, to reduce the size and scope of baseball’s development system.

Yesterday Jeff Passan from ESPN reported that the latest proposal from MLB to the MLBPA included a provision that would allow MLB to lower the number of players on the Reserve list from 180 to as low as 150. Terrific piece by Jeff here, do check it out.

As Jeff illustrates in his piece, it was just December 2020 when MLB contracted MiLB, cutting 42 teams from affiliation and trimming to the current reserve list number.

Way back when, I can tell you I went ape. Went and created maps of the country’s affiliates before and after and using my at the time tiny voice to make sure Manfred got his.

Well, here’s the thing, it didn’t turn out that bad. Just about every town that lost their affiliate status landed firmly on their feet. They wound up hosting MLB sanctioned independent ball and college prospect league action and while I still had the initial gut reaction that this is wrong, I can’t forget how I missed on this one last time.

It may not be as much fun as visceral anger, but you’ll have to stick with me as this time I’m going to approach it much more carefully.

The first thing to note is at least for the time being, this won’t reduce the number of minor league affiliates as each of the 120 affiliate clubs have signed for 10 years. This would likely only limit the FCL complex league which really winds up being more instructional in nature anyway.

It should also be added that the 180 MLB moved to in the last contraction was more than they wanted, but deemed necessary with the lost season in 2020. Even this request wouldn’t be enacted before 2023 and MLB is seeking the right to raise or lower the number.

If I have any reservations here, it’s really that they just contracted, so I’d rather see what that looks like over a number of years before doubling down but I have to admit, I think I’m kinda ok with this.

Part of me thinks this can improve the level of competition at each stop, and that can only help development, and even if I’m wrong, it’ll simply be asking MLB clubs to use a slightly bigger sifting mesh when panning for gold. Players who fall through the cracks will of course crop up but for the most part, I think we’re going to just simplify the road to the show a bit.

Think about it for a minute, we often see a really good performance in Low A and what’s the first thing you say? Go ahead and answer that for yourself, I’ll answer it for me like this, man they probably should have started him in High A.

Then it’s about not trusting the numbers he just put up because it was against inferior talent. Well, maybe contracting this farther will tighten some of that up. Maybe professional baseball should have a higher low water mark in the first place.

I hear the argument that it’s killing the dream for guys, but in reality, it’s just changing the opportunity. Instead of being tied to a team the player gets to decide for themselves that they want to bet on their talent and go to independent ball. It should also be noted this is being suggested with a permanent reduction in the number of rounds in the MLB entry draft to 20. This is a key portion of the proposal that the players and league have already agreed upon.

That means less players drafted in the first place. When players aren’t drafted they can enter the free agent pool or catch on with independent clubs so again, the dream is still alive. I saw a couple people toss out Matthew Fraizer as an example of the type of player who could get chopped had this been enacted back when he struggled in his debut season. Folks, that’s just poppycock. He was a third round pick, and injured on top of that to have a disappointing season to begin with. No, you’re talking about instead, as Craig put it to me when we were discussing this subject, that 3rd catcher on the Low A club who’s hitting .190.

I’ve also seen some worry openly that teams like the Pirates, which we should probably note if these sides were discussing the right stuff would be a statement of the past itself, who like to stack lottery tickets will suffer. Again, I doubt it. Lottery tickets tend to be high ceiling guys and mostly have low floors. One year in A ball tends to show which one they’ll be. Much like the name suggests, you don’t keep your scratched lottery ticket around for another year to see if scratching it more will change the outcome.

It’s not MLB’s job to make sure everyone who wants a chance gets one. I will say this though, if you’re doing this, best start making sure that the fewer players lead to better treatment of who remains.

A big part of me feels this is getting ahead of a change the league feels coming like a freight train, which is paying more for MiLB players. If that’s the case, it stands to reason you’d like to be reasonably assured you aren’t carrying obvious dead weight.

Bear with me here, I’m an old restaurant exec so allow me to use that experience to try and draw a comparison. Labor costs are a constant reality in the biz, usually based on a percentage of revenue each establishment has a different set of numbers and expectations but typically 25% is considered manageable for labor. Now that could mean you have 25 workers on a shift or if you have some higher paid employees it could mean you have 20 or 21. In other words, the restaurant isn’t trying to lose money because some employees make more. Well, on a much larger scale, MLB is the same.

Managing everything at a higher level for 150 employees, is much better than 180.

Now, ten years from now, should this go through, I’m sure someone will dig up some names that almost slipped through, or did in fact get missed, but the overall savings and improved development path I think will outweigh any real detriment.

At the end of the day, I’m ok with this, and I’m of the belief this is little more than a trimming of the fat and streamlining of the process, which most teams won’t struggle to do.

A Pirates Spring Training On Hold

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-zitbr-11a9e36

Pitchers & catchers should be reporting this week. Instead we have slow-moving CBA negotiations. In the end, though, only one group is innocent and they will be hurt the most. Joe Drake from Prospects Live also joins us to talk about some exciting names he observed down on the farm.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. It’s “30 Minutes Of Bucs” and THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

2-14-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Just about every year I see today, Valentine’s Day, as the ramp up to Spring Training. It’s also my Birthday, so usually I’m showered with Pirates gear but this year, the news is so dark on MLB most chose to just avoid it.

That’s as good a transition as any, since we can’t possibly avoid talking about the elephant in the room.

1. The Heart of the Matter

These two sides are miles apart, and it looks like neither is willing to move much more than incrementally, but it’s important to remember much of what is being negotiated is new to the table. Changing the way young and statistically outstanding players are handled has never been attempted, so when the players ask for 105 million, that’s 105 million in new spending being requested. The owners want to reinstate the luxury tax which expired when the last CBA did. It’s something not often thought about by the fans but to the players this is a big ask by the owners, where most of us consider it something that just stays in place.

Functionally that’s correct, but think of it through the eyes of the players and you’ll get why they feel this way. It would be like your company saying you have a freeze on increases through 2024, then in January of 2025 they come to you and casually mention they want to extend it another 5 years or so.

Now, I can argue there aren’t many teams touching the ceiling anyhow, but I’m playing devil’s advocate a bit here, just to say, not everything is as cut and dry as it seems.

The heart of the matter is that these two sides have sacred cows they aren’t likely to give up on, and poison pills they aren’t likely to swallow. The longer this goes, the more likely it becomes that the owners decide to unilaterally up the ante. I think that’s more likely than seeing the owners give up on extended playoffs, revenue sharing or a luxury tax.

2. You’re Still the One

What’s really funny about Mitch Keller is that no matter how bad he’s been in his first couple seasons of MLB, when it comes to someone that could really step up and become a top of the rotation option it’s still Mitch Keller. It’s not just the training videos, or the added velocity, nope, it’s more about the skill set and projected ceiling.

He’s not the only one who could become a quality pitcher, but out of who’s expected to start the season in the rotation, he’s the only one with top tier potential. Roansy Contreras is another but I don’t expect him to make it at the start.

Thing is, I know 90% of fans have already decided what Keller is, just as the same amount have already decided Contreras will be Rookie of the Year and Cy Young finalist in his first full season of action. But Mitch isn’t some definitive bust yet, he’s just a kid who’s running out of chances. Thousands have come before him and thousands will follow him, but teams don’t give up on talent like this in year 3.

3. Love in an Elevator?

I wonder if this lockout drags on as it sure as hell looks like it will, and given that members of the 40-man won’t be able to play, will many members of what we expected to see in Altoona start the year in Indianapolis.

We often worry about what this missed time could do for players like Cruz, Swaggerty or Contreras, but what about the upside of what it could do for guys like Matt Fraizer? This is absolutely not going to be normal and I’m honestly curious to see how they handle it. The AAA season will be 150 games in 2022 and that in and of itself will cause more movement on the roster, but this time in history it could create some logjams in places that weren’t so apparent.

4. Don’t Know What Ya Got, Til it’s Gone

look, nobody should be telling you they know all of this smoke is going to create a fire, AKA Cap System, but these two sides are as far apart as I’ve seen since 1994 and while I’m not predicting that we’re going to see the owners shoot for the moon and institute a salary cap there are also plenty of facts that show it’s not like assuming you’re a fortunate meeting away from dating Beyonce.

  • Owners have already voted for one, all of them. It’s not a good enough one, but one that would lay the structure to tighten it into what would be in the future. Yes it’s been pulled off the table, but forever that hurdle and the narrative that they can’t agree on it has been destroyed.
  • Streaming will eventually (no, not anywhere close to this year) eat into the gross inequities in the game. In other words, at some point as streaming takes over more and more of the broadcast payload, we’re going to see those multi million dollar contracts return to the mean and since MLB owns the streaming rights and the proceeds are already shared league wide, guess what more streaming means for the game?
  • This stoppage won’t go on for years. A year tops. When every proposal is seen through the lens of the players having to agree, I always chuckle to myself, because of course they don’t. The owners can last a year, easily, and after that should the players still not settle, they’ll just move on. Roster with prospects and wait for scabs to cross the line. Chatter about starting another league I’m sure will crop up, but it’s all just as silly as the XFL. This isn’t what I want to happen, nor do I think we’re close to this, but this thing isn’t just going to go on into 2023.
  • The longer this goes, the weaker the players will get, because while they’ve saved a bit in a fund to support a work stoppage, most players don’t make 30 million a year. Owners aren’t going to be telling their wives no because of this, players might. The pain will be felt there first, and at some point, MLB is still the only place in the world where a baseball player can make the kind of money these guys do.

It does the players no good to refuse to relent on things the owners consider non starters, especially when they have nothing but their talent to offer in return. I see a complete dropping of several issues very soon, or a very long process that ends in a drastically different league. Take from that what you will. It’s just my opinion.

These people running around saying you can’t even speak of a cap because the owners pulled it off the table are missing the point. The fact it’s been voted on is something most didn’t see happening. If you ask me that’s why the players have their Irish up so much right now too, they never saw some of these teams getting on board with it. (And yes I’m Irish, I’m allowed to say it) What’s really funny is how many of these “protectors of truth” will tell you they understand negotiations, but can’t fathom that negotiations aren’t often linear. They also without blinking will tell you it’s 100% plausible that a league could exist with a spread of 350-450 million dollars from top to bottom in payroll. Sometimes things are presented for the pure appearance of threat. In other words, just because you read that something was removed on January 13th, doesn’t mean it’ll stay removed when they sign. If you don’t believe that, you quite literally don’t know how negotiations work, and instead just picked your winner before hand and want to justify your belief system.

Things are asked for with the sole purpose of seeming to move dramatically toward the other side.

How this thing winds up has so many variables left to decipher, I can honestly say if anyone tells you they know what’s coming, they’re a liar.

There are a number of places that can tell you what’s been proposed, and what the counters were, after that, it’s all opinion on where it’s going. I suggest you look for that from people willing to look at the entire picture and haven’t decided which side is evil vs altruistic.

5. Can’t Live Without Your Love & Affection

I’ve talked about this before, but these players, these clubs, this league simply can’t survive without you. And this early in the process, they can’t think of you without forgoing things they truly feel are non negotiable to the cutting room floor. The vocal element that wants the league to do everything it has to do to in order to “fix” the league is fine with everything going on right now, save maybe the fact they backtracked off the Cap and Floor proposal at all.

Some of you have decided the players should win and because of your own beliefs about the local owner have decided each and every one of them are Sith Lords in need of a good punch in the mouth. To hell with the league and to hell with the markets that simply won’t make it.

Then you have the owner stooges, who want the players to eat turds and go back to pre free agency times where they had to bag groceries in the off season. Yes, they exist, and I too thought this wasn’t a thing before I started doing this.

For everything you can think of, someone passionately feels that way. For instance, I have more than a few readers who like to scour everything I write for all the “unfair and inflammatory” things I constantly say about Neal Huntington and Bob Nutting. LOL, for real.

The point is, out of this conglomeration and coupled with the vast majority of normal human beings out there, this league needs to come out of this with enough of you to form a fan base, and this time they kinda can’t go back to the well on roids to drum up interest.

That’s a burden both sides will talk about, but neither will tangibly address. Keep that in mind while you passionately fight for a side, cause they won’t fight for you, I promise.

Exploitation, Plain & Simple – MLB Wants MiLB to Remain Unpaid for Spring Work

2-12-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As the labor battle rages on between MLB and the MLBPA, it’s easy to ignore the very real uprising taking place in the Minor Leagues who still have no union representation.

Recently, the Supreme Court allowed a nearly decade old filing of a class action suit where MiLB players want MLB to pay players for participating in Spring Training among other things like paying overtime and arguing against fixed salaries.

It’s been an issue for quite some time and finally MLB is forced to at least address it because this case is going forward now and is set to meet in court on June 1st.

Look at that quote.

I’ll add some context here, MLB has determined that each and every player costs the parent franchise 2,200 dollars per week. They make this argument because they aren’t employees and while I get they could technically, legally even, be right, this would be like your boss telling you that because the company pays for electricity and gas and the general infrastructure costs of owning a business, you can’t get paid.

Now, I get accused of being pro owner quite often, but as I explained the other day, I’m pro fan and I see both sides of everything so I can call BS when I see something and you won’t believe it comes from an overt bias.

This is one of those times. This is nothing short of exploitation.

These guys don’t need to make a ton, they don’t even need to make what they make playing the regular season (which isn’t much either) but to simply say no, well, I’ll just say this, it’s not ALL Scott Boras convincing players that the owners don’t have their best interests in mind. It’s every one of them having been put through the ringer on their way to the league. Then underpaid in many cases once they make it, with nothing more than the hope an owner might, out of nothing more than the kindness of their own hearts, pay them more for overperforming.

It created bitterness between Gerrit Cole and the Pirates and today sticks with him as the Boras client sits on the board of player representatives.

The league is a mess, and it starts from the time these kids are signed. Even 3rd or 4th round picks are expected to live on a bonus for 3-4 years before making the league and earning the league minimum for 3-4 more.

This is something the league could address, and if it’s approached well, maybe they could actually start to change the feelings of future union members. They do themselves no favors here.

See this isn’t an argument about competitive balance, or one team being able to pay triple the payroll as another, this is about simply not seeing an entire group of people, who are the literal future of your game as expendable assets.

It’s about asking for unwavering dedication to one’s craft, while not paying what many could make at McDonalds.

It’s not just about the owners either, cause while players like Gerrit Cole hold onto the bitterness of his young career, he actually had it better than most. The MLBPA has for decades now given away everything they could for these guys. In other words, they remember, but they by in large haven’t remembered that nobody in their brotherhood fought for them when they were in that position.

Sure, they’re saying some of the right things now, so are owners, but watch when this final deal is done, there’ll be one group that got next to nothing, young players and MiLB players.

At some point, this organization is going to lose one of these lawsuits and have it taken out of their hands, but if I’m the league, man I take the opportunity to make this stuff right on my own.

It’s a constant trickle of terrible. Players sleeping in vans, not able to afford proper nutrition, or even equipment. Forget off season training. They can’t even collect unemployment when they aren’t playing. The average MiLB players makes between $8,000 and $14,000 per season. Now, I can’t speak for everyone, but I made more than that when I was 15 years old. Hell, I make more than that for my once a week Podcast.

Again, we’re in an environment where I completely get there are bigger issues, but taking care of these players would solve a bunch of problems. One, it’s just the right thing to do, and yes that’s the most important one. It could also help solve a problem they’ve faced for years, young athletes simply aren’t interested in dealing with poverty on their way to potential greatness and great pay in almost a decade. If you play 2 sports in high school, say baseball and football and you could legitimately pursue either path, which one would you pick? I mean right now, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in college at Ohio State as a prolific wide receiver, his brother Canaan is projected to be a AAA outfielder for the Pirates. If everything goes great for Canaan he’ll make the league in 2022 and by 2026 he’ll be into arbitration where he will finally make millions. Jaxon will play another season of NCAA football and cash in the following season.

That’s the diperity. That’s the reality. And more than anything, it’s why MLB shouldn’t wait to lose a lawsuit to address it. They certainly can’t be paying every kid in MiLB millions, but they can take care of the obvious and make it a livable wage situation at the very least.

To be blunt, it’s disappointing they need to be told to do so.

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Peaking My Interest

2-11-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement On Twitter)

Nowadays it feels like every prospect-especially when it comes to the Pirates-needs to be labeled as something. Whether it be underrated, overrated, under the radar, relative unknown, forgotten, or any variation of these designations, they have to be seen as something; which is somewhat mind boggling to me since the Pirates Farm System is getting more love and more coverage than it has in years.

Sure, there are those that pretty much try to ignore a player until they actually step on the field at PNC Park, or in the most extreme causes fly into a fit of rage as the very mention of the word prospect; even after having read a blog post like the one I wrote this past weekend, cautioning fans to not put too much stock into prospect rankings. However, outside of this group-one that I honestly hold no ill will towards because truthfully not everyone has to interested in the Minors, on top of how often we have been burned here in Pittsburgh by the hype train-the Pirates Prospects have become the de facto focus of the off-season.

With no guarantee of Major League games this season-just in case you forgot there is a Lockout taking place-it’s either write about the Minor Leagues, the CBA Negotiations (Gary is much better at this than me.), an unknown/incomplete outlook for the Pirates and their individual players in 2022 or nothing. For those of us who already had an interest in the Pirates Farm System prior to this current set of circumstances, the decision to choose the former is an easy one, while others have joined in out of necessity to maintain their own livelihood and/or interest in their publication’s content; ultimately flooding the market, and in turn causing people to use these buzzwords as a way to imply-mostly not in a misleading manner-they may know something about a player that others don’t, often in an attempt to stay relevant.

Recently I have read-from extremely knowledgeable sources on occasion-that Endy Rodriguez, Matthew Frazier and Jared Jones are underrated in spite of them showing up 7th through 9th on Fangraphs recent Top 61 Pirates Prospects; with Endy winning the Low-A Southeast League MVP and Frazier being named the Honus Wagner Player-of-the-Year in the Pirates Farm System and the High-A East League’s Most Valuable Player, as well as the organization’s Player-of-the-Year by Baseball America. I have also seen it written more than once that Jared Triolo, Cody Bolton and Omar Cruz were under the radar even though Triolo was named the Pirates Bill Mazeroski Defender of Year, Bolton was a Top Ten Pirates Prospect as recent as 2020 and Omar Cruz has had a minimum of five articles/blog posts-one by me-written solely about him since coming over in the Joe Musgrove Deal and that Adrian Florencio is unknown regardless of the fact that he won the Bob Friend Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award.

There is no denying, that at this point, things have gotten totally out of control. So much so that it’s tough to even start a conversation about players that could potentially breakout; as if there weren’t enough misconstrued buzzwords for you.

On people’s lists I have seen the aforementioned Endy Rodriguez, Matthew Frazier and Jared Triolo, along with Roansy Contreras being predicted to do so in MLB. If a player achieves a certain level of success, no matter the class within the Pirates Farm System, is it still possible for them to breakout again? Wouldn’t it just be continuing perform well as they are promoted? Are we going to create a new word for multiple breakouts?

Just stop.

Instead of trying to make the case for following a prospect seem more compelling, maybe just say it’s a player that you are looking forward to seeing perform in the upcoming season. A prospect that has peaked your interest. That’s what I am going to do.

1) Anthony Solometo

Mechanics. That’s the first thing that likely comes to mind whenever anyone thinks about Solometo; along with Madison Bumgarner and MacKenzie Gore comps. If you don’t happen to know what I am talking about, one can only assume that you have been living under a rock since the most recent MLB Draft.

Selected by the Pirates out of Bishop Eustace Prep-located in Pennsauken, New Jersey- with the 37th Pick, Solometo was ranked as high as #17 by MLB Pipeline and #28 by Baseball America, making him one of the top Prep/HS arms in the class. Ultimately given a $2.8 million signing bonus-nearly $1 million over slot-it was unfortunate that we never got to see the lanky lefty in action during the 2021 season; which I am guessing is the main reason why I am so anxious to see him pitch in 2022. Another explanation would have to be getting a peek at how he works his three pitch mix; especially his 55 grade slider, that often becomes less effective when it starts to slurve.

2) Alexander Mojica

Signed on his 16th Birthday-August 2nd-back in 2018 for $350,000, the 6’1, 195 pound third basemen from Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic began is professional career the following year in the DSL for the heralded Pirates 2 ball club; a team that I have written about, and made mention of numerous times over the past two years.

At 1.8 younger than the average player in the league that year, Mojica slashed .351/.468/.581 with 8 homers, 23 total extra base hits and a 17.6% walk to 15.6% strike out ratio; good for a ridiculously unsustainable 182 wRC+.

Following the pandemic eliminated 2020 season, Cherington and Company chose to be extremely aggressive with the now 250 pound Mojica by assigning him to the Low-A Bradenton Marauders, where he he would be 3.3 years younger than the average player. As the season progressed, the results ended up pretty much where you would have expected them to be as he struggled with controlling the zone at times. On the year Mojica’s strike out rate rose to 26.5%, his batting average fell to .219 and his wRC+ dropped by nearly 100 points to 87.

For a more advanced player these numbers might concern me a little bit more, but at only 19 years old coming into 2022-with a year of experience-I am very curious to see how the season plays out for Mojica.

3) Bubba Chandler

The final piece of Cherington’s executed master plan in last year’s draft was wooing Chandler away from the Clemson Tigers with 72nd Overall Pick at the beginning of the Third Round. In the end it took a cool and even $3 million ($2.3 million over slot)-plus the promise of allowing him pitch and play the field-to bring Chandler aboard. And, I’m not going to lie, it’s why I can’t way to see him take the field in the Minors in few months.

Following the draft-and subsequent signing-we only were able to see him briefly in the Florida Complex League, as he made a meager 37 plate appearances. During this quick glimpse Chandler hit .197 with one homer and 16 strike outs; never taking the mound to show off his 60 grade 92-95 mph fastball that touched 97 during his senior season at North Oconnee High School in Bogart, Georgia.

In just over 44 innings Chandler posted a 1.25 ERA with 96 Ks, including a 17 strikeout one hitter. At the plate he batted .411 with 8 homers and 12 doubles, while he leaning on his 70 grade arm from the shortstop position; a factor that could also have some impact on how the Pirates choose deploy him in a two way player role. Even when he’s not pitching, his arm could still be affected depending on how often he is called upon to make a throw across the diamond.

These are the types of decisions I am really looking forward to concerning such a highly rated prospect.

4) Solomon Maguire

I’m pretty sure everyone knows the story by now. How the Pirates used the international bonus pool space amassed in the Starling Marte Trade with the Diamondbacks to sign a then 16 year-old Australian outfielder for $594,000. Seen as an uncharacteristically bold move by Pittsburgh at the time, acquiring Maguire has yet to turn out in their favor; which is not to say that it won’t.

At this point he has only participated in 17 professional games in the states. During this short amount of time Maguire blasted two homers, but scuffled in nearly every other area; slashing .146/.288/.292 and striking out 31.3% of the time. Nevertheless, at almost 2 full years younger than the average player in the FCL it’s hard to imagine him not improving when he returns this season, however, this is far from guaranteed.

In all likelihood the goal should be to get Maguire as many at bats as possible in 2022 after such a low total over the past two years. This why I would like to see him start the year in Bradenton, rather spending time in the Complex League to accumulate south of 200 plate appearances.

5) Kyle Nicolas

For anyone who had the opportunity to hear and/or read my immediate impression(s) of the Jacob Stallings Trade to Miami, it goes without saying that I was pretty disappointed. Sure the near immediate signing of Roberto Perez cushioned the blow ever so slightly, but overall I was underwhelmed by the return of MLB ready starter Zach Thompson, 23rd ranked outfield prospect Connor Scott and Nicolas-who was ranked at 16th in the Marlins System according to MLB Pipeline.

Originally drafted 61st overall in Comp Round B of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, Nicolas has a limited portfolio thanks to the cancelled 2020 Minor League season; yet it’s a pretty successful one as the Ball State product transitioned from High-A Beloit to Double-A Pensacola, and actually improved along the way in certain areas. For the Snappers (now the Sky Carp) Nicolas had a 5.28 ERA and a 1.358 WHIP. After joining the Blue Wahoos at the end of July his ERA fell to 2.52 and his WHIP dropped 1.220. Unfortunately, his K/9 also dipped from 13.0 to 11.4 and his BB/9 raised from 3.6 to 5.7, so it wasn’t all good news. However, with plus fastball (70 grade) that sits in the mid-90’s and can touch 100 mph, an above average (55 grade) slider with a strong break and an average curve (50 grade), the potential is there to become another strong arm in the Altoona Curve rotation in 2022.

My hope is that Nicolas will be in line for a start this summer when I travel to PNG Field, Canal Park or UPMC Park, so that I can get a closer look.

Conclusion

Obviously as a blogger, journalist, podcaster, fan or whatever you consider yourself, it’s absolutely your right to frame opinions or beliefs in any manner you see fit. Everyone is grinding to various degrees, merely trying to stay afloat in a time when there is very little actual on the field related news to be discussed.

In a way it kind of reminds me of the time during the shutdown, where the lines between everyone covering the Pirates Organization were slightly blurred; with each of us attempting to create our own paths, in an effort to stand out in the crowd.

Unfortunately, unless you start to mention a bunch of names from the Florida Complex and/or Dominican Summer Leagues, chances are most of the ground you are walking on has already been covered.

Minor Agreements, Consistent Issues Persist

2-10-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, as expected Rob Manfred spoke to the media today and some news came out of it that we should discuss along with more anticipated posturing that I also suppose we should have expected. So let’s go through what’s agreed upon, and talk about what this means.

The Designated Hitter is Now Universal

The DH is now agreed upon by both sides. Now, this really shouldn’t surprise you, it was as anticipated as whomever you vote for letting you down. I never rooted for this change, but I did stop fighting it. The game was headed in this direction and while one of the claims they’ll make is that this protects pitchers, I can’t recall many injuries from hitting or running the bases. Not enough to organically change the game anyhow.

It changes the strategy of the National League game, and honestly could potentially open the door for realignment one day. No longer will we see AL lineups with DH players trying to play the field in NL parks.

I guess if given the choice, I’d have chosen the other direction, but I didn’t get that opportunity, and although it was only 60 games, I guess I can admit it grew on me in 2020.

Elimination of Compensation Picks

Another major concession was the announcement that the sides have agreed there will no longer be Compensation picks for free agents who get signed.

Now, for those of you who don’t know this even happens, there has been a rule if you keep a player until his contract expires and he’s of high enough quality you would receive a comp pick for the player signing elsewhere. This was supposed to incentivise teams to retain players instead of dumping them at the deadline, and help teams recover more quickly from losing an important player.

If you think it doesn’t matter, I suppose I could dig through the list of comp picks that have made it to the league, but I’ll just say Ke’Bryan Hayes is one, good enough?

Draft Lottery

Here’s another concession by the league, and this one most of you NHL and NBA fans are already familiar with. We weren’t provided with the framework, in other words we don’t know if it’s the first 10 picks, or the first 3, but we do know that the reality of this change is little more than lip service. If your goal is to be a bad team and get a top pick, trust me when I say you just want to be on the top of the board, and this won’t change that.

So We’re Close to An Agreement Then?

Ha, no. That’s it really. That’s what has been agreed upon and the two sides are supposed to meet again on Saturday. It was expected that the league would announce the moving back of Spring Training but instead Manfred said he was optimistic the two sides would come together and the season wouldn’t be effected.

I’m not being original here as I’ve already seen several people say the same thing, but this is clearly an effort to prevent the league from accepting full blame for it, instead they’ll present their latest proposal and at least aim to share blame with the players.

I mean, lets be real clear here, the players want no competitive balance tax or minimally an increase of close to 40 million and they’d like the league to drastically cut back on revenue sharing. The league is absolutely not going to do either of those things. In other words, it’s very clear Rob’s optimism is false.

It is what it is folks.

Thing is, I think the league could raise the luxury tax by 30 million and it might cause 3 maybe 4 teams to spend more money. Maybe it’s one more player for each.

I don’t feel we’re closer, but I do have some fears.

Could This League Actually Get More Imbalanced?

Well, let’s put it this way, yesterday Rob Manfred provided these 3 things the two sides have agreed on and two of them directly affect small market clubs. To a degree, there almost has to be something the small markets have fought for in exchange that we haven’t heard yet, because if all that’s coming is what we’ve seen plus the Luxury Tax increasing along with base salaries, this deal will do little more than make a daunting task even more daunting.

Rob Manfred acknowledged that these two agreements were hard to get past member clubs, and it shouldn’t shock you that the opposing clubs are the Orioles and Pirates of the world.

Again, I expect this proposal on Saturday to be just about universally rejected by the players despite the new agreed upon content. This will make the shortening of Spring Training the next step. Players have long complained that Spring Training was as long as it is anyhow so don’t expect any real pressure to be felt until it threatens regular season games.

Bottom line though, yes, it really could get worse for small market clubs. That said, if it does, they have nobody to blame but themselves. My dad always told me if you want to get walked all over, act like a doormat.

More to come after I digest what comes of Saturday.

When You’re Starving, You’ll Eat Anything

2-9-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It slips out your mouth without even thinking.

The system sucks, but I just want baseball.

I’ve said it, Craig has said it, as recently as his last podcast in fact. But it’s really sad that the sport we love has created an environment where fans often are forced to believe eating a steaming pile is preferable to nothing at all.

There are variations here. For instance, most of you would happily have Bob Nutting sell the team, even while acknowledging a new owner would only really do a little better because of the system. In other words, the owner can suck and the system at the same time can ensure the next one does too.

We’ve accepted it as fate at this point, and at some juncture we really must take a step back and ask ourselves, why am I ok with this? Why am I making excuses for this game I love being run so poorly? Why am I ok knowing my team has to play a perfect game for half a decade to get a shot that five or six teams can buy in an off season?

I mean think about it. Long before Nutting’s name darkened the doorstep of 115 Federal Street, we openly talked about how no big name free agents would want to play here. We state it as fact, almost emotionless fact at that. We say it like this is completely normal for any team in any competitive league to just not be able to participate in one of the biggest forms of player acquisition, at least the top end, and we just move on like it’s ok.

Well, it’s not ok.

It’s not fine that half the league can’t with a straight face believe they could sign Freddy Freeman. How many teams could afford Max Scherzer, a guy who’s arm nearly fell off at the end of 2021 for over 40 million? And I mean afford in the sense that if it’s a huge mistake they’ll be ok. Yeah, that’s not ok either.

I understand just wanting the game back, I really do, but I can’t understand wanting it back so badly that you just don’t care if anything changes or worse, believing somehow the owners could end the lockout and whammy! suddenly everyone comes together and gets a good deal done. It sucks, for sure, but if this league loses games and comes out of it at least somewhat more fair for every franchise at least you have to say that’s worth it right?

I mean you have to understand, I don’t begrudge any owner making money hand over fist, any more than I begrudge Max from his millions, I simply want every team to have to spend in a reasonable range, and if that means I don’t get to watch MLB for a season, hey, so be it.

As early as this Thursday, MLB is going to announce they’re pushing back the start of Spring Training. It’ll be met with cries of outrage from people who haven’t paid one lick of attention to this entire process. And more of the Millionaires and Billionaires BS that isn’t even a good characterization for what’s really happening. Officially saying we’re losing something will put some into overdrive crying for these two sides to sit down and figure it out but in reality, what’s best for this game, this league is for these two sides to for once look at the overall scene and realize they aren’t even discussing the right mix of topics for the most part.

Let’s talk about how silly it is that we put up with a league run this poorly.

Follow me on this, you know how I love my stories. When I watched National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation for the first time way back when, it was also the first time I had ever seen a Wal-Mart. Within 10 years Wal-Mart’s were everywhere, and everyone shopped at them. Somewhere along the line people realized, hey, that bakery I really like is closing. Say, what happened to that little shoe store on the corner? Oh my, did anyone know that Harry’s Hardware was closing?

The big box almost rendered the little guys obsolete entirely. I mean sure you lost the personal touch that Harry gave you down at the hardware store, but he also charged 25% more for everything you bought. Heck some of you asked Harry for advice then turned around and used his knowledge to get it cheaper at Wally World.

Well, baseball has created a system that’s rigged too, and no matter how many campaigns you start to get people to shop small, no matter how many times you protested, no matter what you do, those smaller market businesses can’t hope to hang with the big boys. Oh sure sometimes they’re willing to get you a custom part that nobody in the big store was willing to even discuss, but let’s face it, that’s a short lived win and chances are they lost money selling it to you.

None of this is to say Wal-Mart is the great Satan, but it is to show you that when you allow disproportionate business, eventually you’ll lose Americana. Small market clubs might not have as many fans as the big market clubs do, but if baseball doesn’t wake up and realize what they’re saying every time they ignore the issue and pretend it’ll go away, the same fate awaits.

So, pardon me if I’m not dismayed these two sides aren’t coming together. Excuse me if I don’t get all worked up over who is making too much money. None of that interests me, I simply want a fair system that makes baseball the focus, not money. If anything what really puts me in a foul mood is the simple fact that neither of these entities is willing to just open their eyes and realize what they’re actively destroying by perpetuating a failed system.

I want to be able to say, man the Pirates really screwed the pooch by not getting a better first baseman this season, and know they really could have gotten a better first baseman this season.

I want tanking to be a thing of the past because it’s no longer the only hope in a full third of the markets.

I want young players paid well, and veterans retained for what they can provide to the fabric of the club instead of who they might be able to flip them for. I want to complain about my owner’s hiring practices instead of what he spends his money on.

I want to call my GM stupid for poorly evaluating their roster instead of assuming his or her hands were tied.

MLB doesn’t have to do exactly what the other leagues have done, but it’s my belief they do have to do something that moves them into the conversation, because while I won’t predict any of these teams are on the brink, I will say the only reason they aren’t is because MLB has propped them up just enough to keep the Generals around so the Globetrotters have someone to play.

Don’t see too many people rocking Generals jerseys do ya?

We have an entire media apparatus that writes with no hint of sarcasm that great players like Bryan Reynolds belong in big markets. Like it’s a crying shame these bastards aren’t willing to trade him because he really belongs somewhere that could win. Oh and then when they do trade him, oh how they’ll laugh at the stupidity they not two weeks earlier had advised as “smart”. The cheap owner that wasn’t willing to spend finally did what he was supposed to do, and get the talent where it belongs.

No wonder we’re so blind. No wonder we sit here acting like everything is ok as is or this is as simple as shuffling a few more million from this pile to that.

Thing is, we should demand that our owner spends more money, but when I know the capability of this franchise even if every red cent possible was put into payroll could easily be doubled if not tripled by several markets, it’s hard for me to act like the fix is that simple. Add in the fact that even if one of those markets finds a way to win, well then that’s an unpalatable way to win.

What this league routinely says to half the league is, shut up, know your place, be happy we keep you around.

The longer that goes on the more the league has to pump into the effort to keep them around because more and more fans either die off or just get sick of pretending the 2015 Kansas City Royals are enough to hang their hopes on.

Enough is enough. I’m tired of worrying about being fair to owners or players, how about being fair to us for once?

There are 30 teams in MLB, and the league would love to expand. Let’s be real honest here though, if this league continues on the path they’re on, do you think expansion is more likely than contraction? I sure don’t. And even if I’m being dramatic, I certainly don’t see a thriving game.

America’s pastime is about to find itself long past time when they were a relevant organization if they aren’t careful. Boxing was once too big to fail too, and they let money and greed destroy it. Allowing promoters to pull the same kind of tricks MLB agents are pulling today. They forgot that the fans mattered. Don King, meet Scott Boras, same as it ever was, and just as destructive.

Maybe visually it’ll really sink in how little a team’s lot in life changes over a couple decades of this system. Go ahead, play it, and really watch. Let it sink in how the bottom and top just kinda stay put.

You may think the owners and players need to grow up, but really, the league itself is what needs to mature.

The Most Dangerous Game

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-civ6q-11a0360

Are you angry about the MLB Lockout? We’re with you. Let’s start throwing people out of baseball who make the game worse, and imagine the true reality behind ownership wealth. We go down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories that may be wrapped in truth as Pirates fans wait for their game to return.

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. It’s “30 Minutes Of Bucs” and THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

2-7-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The game of baseball is in crisis mode and knowing it was coming, predicting the contentiousness does little more than give some people that do what I do opportunity to pat ourselves on the back.

That’s not really my style, but suffice to say, if you’re shocked at what’s happening right now, you haven’t been paying attention. The first time I openly predicted we would have a very contentious labor battle, was the winter of 2019, and much like Nebakanezer, the writing on the wall doesn’t reach everyone.

Let’s dig in today and see where the thoughts take us.

1. The Game Will Survive

I don’t even think we’ve reached the height of ugliness as of yet, and I’ll still confidently put this out there. That’s not to say that for some fans this is a breaking point, I understand the frustration, but as most of you can tell when I write about the negotiations, I prefer to see each side and reason through it, rather than just pick bad guys like Rob Manfred or Scott Boras.

I do that for me, not you. I mean sure you get to see all sides of the argument clearly if you choose to read, but I can’t write about this game fairly if I’ve picked a side to bury before I start. I also do it because hopefully when one side does something that simply can’t be seen as anything but wrong or underhanded, I want to have the credibility to call them out. Hopefully by not creating false drama along the path, you’ll trust me when I do raise alarm bells.

Many of you remember 1994, and what it took to bring fans back to the game after that. This won’t be much different. If we miss significant games and the changes are minimal, the league will lose even more small to mid market fans. If we miss a bunch and it comes with big changes that make competitive balance improvements, over time, it will increase fan participation.

Either way, MLB will move forward in some form or fashion, and while I won’t directly tell any individual they’re full of it when they say they won’t watch anymore, suffice to say most of them will. Quietly at first, then somewhere along the line, when it’s relatively safe nobody is looking, they’ll be back. Most anyway.

Especially if the changes are worth it.

2. Have I Mentioned Baseball Will Still Be Played?

We will still have Minor League Baseball, regardless of how this negotiation continues to evolve. Players on the 40-man won’t participate so I ‘m not going to sit here and tell you it’s all rainbows and flowers for the Bucs, it’s not. If this thing stretches out some of you would probably happily say good, another year of development without the pain of watching the MLB team struggle.

If this were 2020 or even 2021, I’d be right there with you, but this year the Pirates are poised to have several rookies make their debut and a fresh crop of 40-man members who really need to play. Like, now is not the time for Travis Swaggerty to miss his 3rd season of baseball since being drafted. It’s not ideal that Oneil Cruz would be forced to just sit there along with Roansy Contreras. Look, I’m not going to list them all, but if this were to be a really extended event, you could feasibly see some guys who did get to play, catch up to, if not pass some guys on the 40.

That said, the logjam it could create might be the pixie dust Cherington needs to conglomerate enough talent together at one moment in time to really have a shot at primarily building his team.

Either way, should you so choose, baseball will be available to you and in the case of the Pirates organization, it won’t be bad baseball.

3. The Case for Trading Kevin Newman or Cole Tucker

First of all, there won’t be many of you upset at seeing either moved, even if yes it’s for more prospects.

Aside from that, there are other players just about ready to take the spots they play by force. It’s clear just from looking at the construction of the depth chart that at best 2023 will be a year where one, not both, of these players is the starting second baseman. More likely one, not both are a bench piece.

So if one, max, is going to be here, why not move one now while they possess enough years of control that someone can reasonably expect they could “fix” them?

Let Cruz, Castillo, Castro, Marcano and Bae have the space, because they might not even be able to hold off the next round.

Maybe this is ultimately how the club secures a back up catcher. No matter what, this is a suggestion based on the overall strength of the positions they play.

4. Kudos to Jesse Rogers at ESPN

It’s rare when a national writer will broach the subject of a salary cap, it’s even more rare when they’ll do it to a player, let alone a player who’s actually involved in the negotiations. Enter Jesse Rogers who did the deed, asking Andrew Miller point blank why a Cap wouldn’t be a good thing for MLB? Read it here.

It’s a window into the mind, and you’ll note the answer has a whole lot of deflection built in. Like ask NBA and NHL stars if they’re happy with a cap! Or we’ve just decided that system wouldn’t be best for us.

I especially love this line from Miller. “The Rays have won but we’re not necessarily happy with the way that they have always operated.”

Oh my.

If I start a business making nails and selling them for 5 cents a piece, then someone else finds a way to sell them for 3 cents, we don’t typically ask the new company to please start selling them for 5 because it’s not the way we want them to operate.

What’s painfully obvious is that the idea of a system with a floor and ceiling has become such a bad word we no longer see anyone who can bother to adequately articulate why it’s bad.

This interview means more to people like me than almost anything that would ever come from it. Mad respect for this reporter actually asking the questions.

5. Altoona Slide

If this lockout continues as I expect, I’d love to see the organization have the Curve play in PNC for a series or two. It’d be really great for the general Pittsburgh Baseball ran to really get a chance to put their eyes on some of the future, and it’d give these kids a chance to experience what they’re fighting for.

I leave it at Altoona because it’s doable by bus, but I’d be quite happy if the club found a way to get these guys in front of fans. Take them from the “14th ranked prospect” to “I saw that guy crush a ball off the Clemente Wall” and really build the belief that what’s being built isn’t fool’s gold.

I’m sure someone smarter than me will tell me why this couldn’t be done, or even shouldn’t be, but these are my thoughts and I’d like to see it.

Weathering The Storm Of Pirates Prospect Predictions

2-6-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Over the past few weeks multiple storm fronts have passed through Western Pennsylvania; leaving behind a jumbled mess of snow and ice. Obviously this isn’t anything new to those of us who have lived in the area for as long as I have-43 years in June. Yet, each time the possibility of a larger than average snowfall is predicted or freezing rain is scheduled to arrive, many seem to lose all touch with reality as they rush to the local grocery store to strip the shelves of milk and bread; like they are going to be stuck in the house for an extended period of time. Sure, this type of scenario has taken place on several occasions in my lifetime, but they are given the title Blizzard Of for that exact reason; because they don’t happen very often.

Another ritual performed leading up to, and of course throughout the duration of the storm is the almost compulsive checking of the weather forecast. You discuss it with friends and family, bring it up in casual conversations, mention it in passing to the cashier at the checkout-as if they have no idea why their line is never ending-and post about it online; all the while cursing the meteorologist from your favorite news station or the app on your phone due to the practically unavoidable inaccuracies of their predictions. That is unless they are one of those amateur weather buffs, who likes to make the own guess; which is often just a mix of all the other forecasts, and just as likely to be wrong.

Eventually, amid the aftermath, these discrepancies will be rehashed ad nauseam in an attempt to determine the projections that were most in line with the actual outcome; or more likely, those that were incorrect to a lesser degree than everyone else. In the end it will be decided that none of them are worth trusting, and it only makes sense to ignore them, or at the very least take it with a grain of salt in the future. That is until the next threatening front starts to move in.

In my mind, this whole process is pretty similar to way in which fans from Pittsburgh approach the idea of evaluating the lists Pirates Prospects find themselves on; be it the team specific rankings, the Top 100s for all of Minor League Baseball or the ones that establish a hierarchy of the Farm Systems. Although, if we are making comparisons I think I may have forgotten about two distinct categories of people. Those that simply sit on their couch, waiting to see what actually comes because the forecasts are always wrong anyway and the type that constantly compare every storm to one that occurred before most of us were even born.

When it comes to the majority of fans that remain, they usually fall right in line with the Western Pennsylvanians in my initial analogy. Anytime a new list is released, they rush to read it with reckless abandon; taking in all of the information as quickly as they can, while trying to savor it at the same time because you never know how long it will be before the next one comes out.

Then there’s the business of picking your favorite site; from Fangraphs to MLB Pipeline and Baseball America to Baseball Prospectus. Growing up my grandparents tuned into KDKA for the weather, my parents always watched WTAE because “Joe Said It Would!” and I somehow found myself looking to WPXI for the local forecast. In the same way, fans will generally rely on a certain site for their prospect projections; often advocating for why their preferred site is the best. When in reality if you stack up the success and failure rates of Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus against each other the differences are probably negligible.

Just for fun one afternoon, look up the Top 100 Prospect Lists-as well as the ones specific to the Pirates-from the past 10 to 15 years. See how many of these guys actually worked out, and in some instances, how many you can actually recognize. Much like weather forecasting, the ability to predict long term success (the 10 day forecast), is significantly more difficult than what could happen in the upcoming year (your daily forecast); yet many of us still study and analyze it anyway.

In essence they both create talking points and reason(s) for discussion, using tools that are designed to help predict the future. However, after all is said and done, they are honestly another form of entertainment. One that is not designed for everyone to enjoy, as well as one(s) that naturally cause some skepticism.

So, check your local forecast because they are calling for rain in 11 days, and study the prospect lists on account of your pick to click falling in the the Top 30 at only 17 years old. But, don’t forget to check back in from time to time; the forecast is almost certain to change.