Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

1-10-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Another week. And another wasted period of time for these two sides to start work on coming together. This is getting to be like starting foundation construction in Minnesota after Thanksgiving.

Before I dig in today, I’d like to invite all of you to join me and my podcast partner Jim Stamm on Saturday, January 22nd at 2 PM at the North Shore Tavern across from PNC Park for a live episode of the Pirates Fan Forum. We’ll have giveaways from the DK Pittsburgh Sports Store and a few other surprises. Hoping that just about everyone who shows up will be able to participate. For those who can’t make it, we’ll be live on Facebook and YouTube as well and we’ll read your comments and questions too. Hope to see you all there.

Now, Let’s dig in.

1. Pirates Getting International Talent

Since coming on board with the Pirates, Ben Cherington has focused on quality over quantity in the international market. Now, I get it, that sounds like a couple buzzwords that someone trying to tell you Ben is the best GM in baseball would say, but in this case, it’s provable.

During Neil Huntington’s regime the Pirates had success in this market as well, notably with guys like Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. I also get most of you wouldn’t consider Polanco to be a success but when it comes to signing 16 year old kids, making the league and having success at any rate is a win.

On top of that it’s fair to say we haven’t and won’t see all of the seeds he planted bear fruit for another couple seasons, with guys like Rodolfo Castro, Ji-hwan Bae still in the mix we just don’t know what we’re going to see.

Neil had a different approach, he liked to grab quantity, and I can’t say it was a bad way to go. As I already mentioned, you’re often evaluating 16 year old kids, so on top of deciding if they have tools that will translate, you also have to assume and forecast physical growth.

This January 15th the Pirates will get another opportunity to add talent to the system and they have their sites set on two top 15 talents. First the number 12 available Yordany De Los Santos. Another super tall, Oneil Cruz type short stop prospect. And recently a 16 year old outfielder who was on track to sign with Tampa named Tony Blanco Jr. the 11th ranked prospect available. He’s 6’5″, 230 pounds with a power tool rated at 55.

There’s no guarantee Ben Cherington is even the GM when and if these guys make an impact on this ball club, but this remains one of the best ways a team can add elite talent to the system. To lend some perspective here, between this year and last, the Pirates will have signed the number 11 prospect Shalin Polanco, and an 11 plus 12 this year. Prior to Polanco, it had been more than a decade since they last inked a top 15 prospect.

It means nothing until it does, but it’s worth noting Juan Soto was 13th when signed by Washington. I’m not saying any of these guys will come close to what he has become but it stands to reason adding more like this at least gives you a chance to find someone like him.

Over the past few seasons, MLB has seen the median salary for players reduce. It’s one of several things that makes MLB an outlier as median salary has increased in the other big time North American sports year over year.

So why is this? Is it just owners being cheap?

Sure, a little, but I really think it has more to do with the overall belief that players peak performance years end earlier than they used to. We’re talking about a league that by in large no longer likes to sign 30+ year old free agents to any length of time.

Here’s the weird part though, the average age for a rookie in MLB going all the way back to 1900 sits around 24. So the cycle of development hasn’t skewed players into the show much faster than it ever has.

So, players are starting their MLB service time around the same age as always, but now by the time they reach free agency all but the rare talent is seen as a liability for a lengthy contract.

Of course salaries are down.

The numbers back up the sentiment for a players career arc, that’s hardly disputable, but it’s also hard to dispute the biggest money contracts are on the down side of that arc for most players.

Perhaps this is why getting young players paid quicker and reducing the amount of control franchises have of a player before free agency is such a crucial component of this CBA negotiation.

The average MLB career lasts 2.7 years, and I could see this figure decreasing if it’s no longer dirt cheap to play underperforming youngsters. Think about it, if Cole Tucker costs 1 million per, is he getting yet another chance this year? Maybe. This is why I like the idea of performance based increases for rookie deals prior to arbitration paired with removing the incentive for delaying call ups.

Every change to the system has cause and effect pinned to it, but this aspect is at the heart of many issues on the table.

3. Is There Any Hope in 2022?

Hope is a funny thing. It means different things to different people. For instance, I hope as 2022 wraps up (when and if it starts) with the Pirates having 7-8 players considered to be part of the solution already embarked on their MLB journey.

To most that’s not going to be in the ballpark, I get that.

Most people are going to say .500 or the vague “competitive” wish. To me, I’m all about 2022 providing answers and eliminating guys who have none to give.

I hope by the end of 2022 we have answers to these questions and I’ll be happy.

  1. Is Mitch Keller an MLB starter?
  2. Can Oneil Cruz actually handle the SS position?
  3. Was Ke’Bryan Hayes a case of just being injured last season?
  4. Will Derek Shelton start managing to win instead of managing to evaluate?
  5. Do they have even one answer in the crop of outfielders coming up?

Get me answers there and I’ll head into 2023 feeling on track to make some noise. The record should improve too mind you, but I’ll keep that in the nice to have category for now, noting if they answer all those questions, a record improvement is sure to tag along.

4. Expanded Playoffs and the Lure of Faux Parity

My wife was out cold. Both cats crashed in their little beds too. There I was, laying in bed at 12:15AM watching two teams I couldn’t care less about, praying they somehow didn’t end in a tie so my team could sneak in to the very last spot of an expanded playoff field.

I know a bunch of you were in the same boat last night as we all thought the Steelers had the hard part of their formula knocked out by 4:30PM.

Here’s the thing though, nobody believes this is more than what it is, one more game.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they’re in, proud even, but I’m under no illusion they’re going to the Super Bowl.

MLB will most likely come back with expanded playoffs themselves this year once they finally get a new CBA in place, and it might very well make for more teams watching games they couldn’t care less about, hoping and praying. It may lead to more teams feeling they have a shot come August. It may even reduce the number of teams willing to call themselves sellers at the deadline which should delight Mr. Boras.

What it won’t do is create real parity.

The teams likely to win it all, will remain the teams likely to win it all. It’ll just give them one more modest hurdle on the way most of the time. I guess as a Pirates fan we should try to look at what it could mean for us.

Simplistically put, it probably adds a year on either end of a competitive window. If it’s done with another one game win or go home scenario it might actually get in the way.

All this to say, I’m fine with playoffs expanding, but don’t fool yourself into thinking MLB can throw their hands in the air and claim they’ve fixed things. The potential spread between top and bottom payroll if playoffs were expanded last season is still north of 100 million.

5. An Uncomfortable Truth

There is one thing that is simply unavoidable in today’s society and it may wind up playing a role in the CBA negotiations. COVID.

It feels like society is starting to swing to the we have to live with this, way of thinking, and without inviting everyone to turn this into a political discussion it’s hard to discuss baseball getting back on the field without thinking about the fact they’ll also have to likely address how protocols are implemented as well.

I’d love to think it’ll be over by then, but I’m old enough to remember when two weeks was supposed to be enough to stop this thing from hurting most of us. I don’t blame anyone for not knowing how to handle it, or even for the ever changing of requirements but something this big won’t get done without this issue coming up.

Even if I avoid the temptation to claim some people will use this issue to their advantage it’s an issue they’ll have to deal with. Players openly didn’t like the protocols as they were enforced or implemented when the league started back up in 2020 or how it evolved in 2021, so my gut tells me they aren’t going to just head into 2022 with a new CBA that allows Rob Manfred to just dictate terms on something that can literally prevent guys from getting on the field.

For instance, other sports dealing with this on the fly have navigated the situation as best they could. The NHL shut down for a couple weeks and they still have problems with Canadian teams playing and travelling across the border. The NBA has some notable holdouts on getting vaccination, and even that is dependent on the city they play in. The NFL has adjusted their testing requirements and avoided an overt mandate. Bottom line, if you think MLB is going to come back and not have answers for how they’re moving forward, you aren’t paying attention.

These are two sides who love to play the PR game too, so picture one side saying the other doesn’t care about their health, or cares too much.

It’s just another ingredient in this toxic soup that neither side has bothered to even stir yet.

You Do Realize Mason Martin is Still Here Right?

1-9-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

From the moment the Pirates made their moves to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft, fans have been speaking about Mason Martin in past tense. Even if it was acknowledged that he’s still part of the organization, fans were much more apt to make sure his issues were highlighted.

It’s kind of the opposite of what happened with this young fella before the protection deadline. See back then, everyone seemingly wanted to ignore he struggled with strikeouts and focus solely on the incredible and rare power tool.

So, for the record, as of right now, Mason is still a Pirates farm hand. His power tool is still freakish. His ability to tramp down his strikeout rate remains his largest hurdle to taking the next step. That said, the same reason he didn’t get the protection from the franchise is the same reason he’ll likely not be selected, he simply isn’t ready for, nor expected to be ready for MLB.

I’ve felt over the past month or so an overwhelming sense that fans have taken this to mean he’ll never be ready, or isn’t in the Pirates plans at all, but that’s simply not what this means. Literally all it means is he is a top 30 prospect that the team doesn’t think will be a factor on the big league club, and isn’t likely to stick if someone else wanted to take a crack.

You’ll remember Craig and I both thinking it might be wise to protect him simply because of position depth. If you eliminate Martin or blow right past him you have to rely on position changes to find the next first baseman this club is developing, so to assume this team has just washed their hands of the youngster is clearly not how the team sees it, instead this is just part of the risk teams with a glut of top end talent in their system has to accept.

In fact he’s not even the best of the group that was left unprotected. Baseball America just chose Cal Mitchell the Pirates young outfielder as someone they see taking a huge step forward this season. I’d have protected him over Jack Suwinski if I’m honest, but I also hardly think the Pirates believe Mitchell is out of the plans now because they chose to go another direction.

Players like this suffered the most from missing 2020.

It made their completely normal progression through the minors look like they stalled out, and while everyone worked as hard as they could to somehow progress through it like Matt Fraizer or Max Kranick showed, not everyone picked right back up where they left off. Tough decisions were made like this all over baseball. As soon as it was decided that 2020 was still going to count toward the running totals of every player, this was an inevitable outcome for some guys.

The real point here is that in no way does being left unprotected mean the club has given up on you, and it certainly doesn’t mean they have moved on to a new plan with you no longer being an option. Simply put, it means you aren’t one of the 40 guys they think has the best shot to help the big club this season. In a franchise that probably had about 8 more borderline possibilities, someone was going to get left off the list.

We don’t need to write eulogies for guys that are still very much so alive and if Mason can just improve his K to BB ratio even marginally he’s right back in the conversation. This club has signed Yoshi Tsutsugo for one season and cut loose Colin Moran so it’s not even out of the question he could find his way to the show this season let alone Spring of 2023 where his numbers will dictate how they proceed and whether he’s in the mix for taking a position or not.

In Atlanta Daysbel Hernandez their number 26 prospect was left exposed. In Boston Gilberto Jimenez their number 10 prospect was exposed. The Pirates have others too like Tanaj Thomas, Omar Cruz and guess what, the more prospects this team develops the more this will come up.

It’s a bet, an educated risk that you’ll hold onto most of these guys anyway, but the business of putting a team together means the vast majority of your 40-man roster better be capable of helping, and now. This subject got a lot more attention this season for a couple looming reasons.

First, they have a whole lot more guys on the farm that fans care about now, and the lost season caused more of a traffic jam of guessing.

I suggest that Martin will put in work this year, and find himself right back in the consciousness of the fan base, in fact with the lack of power this club is set up to display, I wouldn’t be shocked to hear his name sometime before the All Star Break, especially if the DH indeed comes to the NL.

This process is messy, and every single year you’ll find reasons to explain why building the way the Pirates are trying to do it is hard. Should they ultimately succeed, it won’t come without casualties. They will miss on a guy. They’ll even give up on someone way too early who figures it out and blows the doors off in his new home. But, maybe lets actually see it happen before we mentally make cuts here folks.

Mason Martin is still a Pirate.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Andres Alvarez Is The Forgotten Infielder In Greensboro

1-7-22 By Craig W. Toth (@BucsBasement on Twitter)

Prior to the start of the 2021 Minor League Baseball Season much of the focus concerning Pirates Prospects in the Farm System was pointed squarely at Greensboro’s roster; and with good reason. Quinn Priester, Carmen Mlodzinski, Michael Burrows, Omar Cruz, Braxton Ashcraft and Tahnaj Thomas lead the pitching staff, while Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero held down the middle infield spots.

As the season progressed some disappointment was experienced due to injuries suffered by a few players on this list, as well as major control issues from the young flamethrower-Thomas. Nevertheless, by the end of the year most of the excitement came back around as the Grasshoppers found themselves competing for a High-A East Championship thanks to a majority of the top prospects on the roster; along with breakout seasons from Jared Triolo and Matthew Fraizer-who was promoted to Double-A Altoona at the beginning of August.

Of course there were other players that contributed to Greensboro’s success on the season, many whom you’ve probably never heard mentioned-not even in passing-due to the tunnel vision often exhibited when scouting an organization’s prospects; which I really can’t blame anyone for, seeing as as top prospect lists are all the rage, and not everyone has time to scour MiLB stat sheets all day. However, if you did, Andres Alvarez would be a name that consistently popped up on your radar; especially during the final two months of the season.

Drafted by the Pirates in the 22nd Round (664th Overall) back in 2019 out of Washington State University as a Senior, Alvarez had spent his first year of collegiate ball at Trinidad State Junior College before becoming a Cougar for the final three; earning All-PAC-12 Honors twice. Known for his glove at shortstop and patience at the plate, he ended his career with a .286 AVG, a .741 OPS and 95 Ks to 67 BB in 604 at bats.

Immediately following his selection, Alvarez would spend almost his first year in the organization with the GCL-now FCL-Pirates before being promoted to then Low-A Greensboro for the final five games of the season. On the year the glove first profile rung true as he bounced around to nearly every position in the infield, while batting only .226 with a .636 OPS.

So, obviously not a great start to his Minor League Career; although, unfortunately for him, this was not going to be the worst of it. Following the cancelled 2020 season, Alvarez would be placed on the 7-Day IL only four days into his assignment with the now High-A Greensboro Grasshoppers. Ultimately landing in extended Spring Training at Pirate City back in Bradenton, it would be almost another two whole months before he would see any game action.

For the first month his struggles continued as he slashed .209/.320/.302 with a single homer over 50 plate appearances. It was at this point that I thought it could be the end of the line for Alvarez. That was until he went on an absolute tear in August, which continued into a very solid month of September.

In the final two months combined he smashed six of his seven homers, batted .333 and put up a .951 OPS; yet, as with several others in the Grasshopper’s lineup, my main concern was the disparity between his home and road splits. Outside of the friendly confines of the bandbox known as First National Bank Field, Alvarez’s OPS dropped by nearly 450 points; from 1.137 to .693. For reference, the previous mentioned Peguero and Gonzales saw theirs fall by 100+ (.828 to .720) and 200+ (1.065 to .808) respectfully on the road.

Obviously, this a bit of a red flag. Add in his professional track record prior to August and the color starts to take the appearance of a full fledged crimson hue; or simply stated as more worrisome in layman’s terms.

Currently Alvarez is playing in Liga de Béisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente (aka the Puerto Rican Winter League) for Gigantes de Carolina; with fellow Pirates Bligh Madris and Ethan Paul. On the season he has arguably the best stats of the three, which sadly isn’t saying much at this point. With a .231/.302/.282 slash line in 11 games and across 44 plate appearances, he will have a lot to prove as he lands back in Greensboro or slightly north in Altoona.

Luckily for him the experience of overcoming being forgotten, lost in the shuffle and/or possibly counted out by some is still fairly fresh, and can possibly be used for motivation. Because, honestly he is going to need it in order to go toe-to-toe with the Pirates top middle infield prospects yet again.

Truly Legendary

1-5-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I watched on the edge of my seat. Eyes filled with tears after explaining to my wife this was for me what the Notebook is to her. A man who delivered two championships to my city, and my team, Ben Roethlisberger was always bigger than life, and he gave this team everything he had for 18 seasons.

As the dust settled and I had time to really digest that Ben is just about done, I immediately started thinking about other players who have done the same sort of thing. Mario Lemieux is of course the first name I thought of, Sidney Crosby will be another huge event, but the Pirates for people my age simply can’t provide anyone for the discussion.

In fact it’s one of the few things I can say make Pirates fans different from the other sports in the city. This game, and this system just don’t make for many moments like we watched play out Monday night.

I guess AJ Burnett was the closest I’ve seen. He spent most of his career elsewhere, but we adopted him as a Pittsburgher, and we ignored how short he was actually here relatively speaking. The Batman symbol on the skyline, the crowd showing how much we appreciated his role in simply getting the Pirates back into the post season and the tough as nails attitude our roots hardened in steel identified with so richly.

A sea of STFD shirts and Batman masks cheered as AJ confidently delivered 6 2/3 innings of 1 run ball. When Clint Hurdle came out to get the ball after 107 pitches, the ball park, and the city (since the Clemente Bridge was loaded too) let him have it.

This city loves to show their appreciation, especially to those who understood how special the relationship is and loved us back. The Steelers will have more, Cam Heyward will deserve and receive a hero’s send off to be sure. One day Mike Tomlin will as well. The Penguins will have at least three more, Geno, Sid and Letang, you could even toss Mike Sullivan into that mix.

The Pirates on the other hand, well, I’m not so sure. Baseball is currently not set up to have players reach retirement in one place, instead it’s set up to incentivize timing contracts to the end of usefulness, or peak performance. Add in an owner who watches every cent and it makes me feel the last player to retire who played every game with the Bucs and was worth celebrating might very well be Willie Stargell.

You have to remember when I grew up, that stuff was all behind me already. The Steelers stunk, the Penguins were a distant third in town and Mario hadn’t even debuted yet.

It can be done in baseball, Joey Votto will get that kind of a send off, and I’ll be blunt, I spent the majority of my adult life hating the guy, he’s a Red after all, but if his last game happens to be in Pittsburgh, best believe I’ll stand and appreciate what he’s meant to the rivalry, I can’t even begin to imagine how Reds fans will feel.

It’s just not as big a thing in today’s game unfortunately.

Kyle Seager, Miggy, you can find ’em if you dig, but by in large a major league baseball player can expect to play in at least two places before he hangs them up.

I don’t want this to be a big discussion about the system or a cheap owner, it’s deeper than that. It’s an overall discussion like this, all I’m shooting for is a general acceptance that this simple fact has hurt the game.

When I write about baseball, I try to keep in the back of my mind that things I take as fact today, simply weren’t 40 years ago. Even when I started paying attention, I figured Barry Bonds would be a Pirates player until he was done, but that’s exactly when the game itself changed. I say I keep it in my mind because in order to have some of you identify with what I’m writing, I feel its important you know I may not have seen it, but I know it was different. I know the closure you used to get with guys closing out their careers here. I know they were your champion and you never had to share them with another fan base.

It’s hurt the connection many feel with their ball club. There is nothing to link the generations. There’s no holdover who spans two winning eras. It’s hard to expect the kind of loyalty we want to see when the team itself doesn’t want them past a certain age.

Again, that’s not just a Pirates thing, even Dodgers fans will say goodbye to Clayton Kershaw this season and while I am about the last person who’s going to cry for Dodgers fans, I will say he’s exactly the type of guy who used to retire in the city he played in much more often than today.

Will we ever get that back? I don’t know.

Again, if it was purely economic I’d say yes, the same way I say eventually they’ll get a cap system. Unfortunately it’s more about accepting declining performance as part of the story arc of ones career, and that’s just not in the DNA of the game anymore, at least not with regularity.

When and if we see it again, remember it’s special. Don’t dwell on how they looked after their prime was over. Focus on how special they were to get to this position in the first place. I truly hope we see it again for the Pirates, if not we’ll have to settle for short lived pulp culture players like AJ, and while it’s not quite the same, it still sure feels incredible.

Thank you Ben, and thank all of you all for letting a middle aged dude have a little latitude to write out the emotion that event brought.

A Pirates Edition Of What If…?

1-4-22 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

I’m not sure how many people actually know this about me, but I am actually a pretty big introverted extrovert. Sure I can be somewhat outgoing at times, however, the ability to put myself in the center of attention is often outweighed by an innate desire to avoid even the most simplistic social interactions; which is probably why I find myself at home on the couch, watching television or writing most weekends instead of going out and doing anything really.

This predisposition to lazy nights at home regularly leads to binging the latest series on any number of streaming services, with the most recent focus of consumption being the Marvel Comic Series What If…? on Disney+. In this animated anthology-placed squarely in Phase Four of the current MCU arc-alternate timelines within the multiverse are explored to show what could happen if events occurred differently from what actually took place in the real world.

So, what does this all have to do with the Pirates? On the surface, probably not a lot. However, with almost everything in life, my thoughts often drift back to anything-and everything-related to the Pirates; especially since many conversations on social media include a lot of ifs, ands, or buts, as well as some woulds, coulds or shoulds.

For some these discussions-but more accurately suggestive comments-involve the desire to see how much differently the Pirates past or current timeline would be affected by removing Bob Nutting from the situation. Obviously, this is the ultimate what if scenario, however it’s not one I really let live rent free in my head because until I actually see the word sold, it seems like a waste of time to wish for something that doesn’t necessarily guarantee that the set of circumstances surrounding the team will improve. Sure, there would be an instantaneous sigh of relief, along with a likely wave of joy felt across the city, but it’s hard to imagine exactly what would follow; even though many picture an owner that really cares about winning automatically stepping in.

For the most part the remainder of remarks-made by a certain sect within the Pirates fanbase-contain predictions concerning players that have limited experience in the Majors, or most often prospects; many that have only reached as high as Greensboro. Generally these prognosticators are responding to comments of concern pertaining to a specific player’s potential, yet it isn’t out of the ordinary for unsolicited posts to be made about how well someone will perform during the upcoming season; or in a Major League Career that has yet to be solidified.

Obviously, it’s the off-season-the time of unimaginable hope-that causes negative expectations for even the most downtrodden member of the organization to be washed away by an instructional change, a new approach or a simple quote overflowing with confidence from player himself.

Now I hate to be the bearer of bad news, nevertheless it should be pointed out that I’ve almost never heard a player talk about his progress or overall effort in a negative light.

And guess what? All of these guys are working. Even the ones that don’t take to Instagram, Twitter or TikTok. Hell, I don’t even know if Carmen Mlodzinski has phone based on the comments he made following his draft selection.

Videos of a guy blasting soft tosses from behind a screen or hitting off of a tee turn into fans waxing poetic about him being able to repeat this performance consistently when facing a upper 90s fastball.

Yes, I recognize that this puts me into the classic position of being the old man who yells at a cloud, as the manner in which we receive updates concerning the players within the organization is constantly evolving; it just becomes frustrating when each and every player is deemed to be a sure-fire success story based on a 15 second clip.

Because you know, they should, could or would reach their full potential-always the ceiling, never the floor-if they are able to address the one glaring hole that may exist their swing, get control of their fastball or add a third pitch. But, let’s not concentrate on those possibilities, and only focus on the best case scenarios.

That train of thought in providing assessments concerning the Pirates Prospects-or really any member of the organization-will never lead to any sort of disappointment.

Just look at 10 Time All-Star Chad Hermansen, Cy Young Winner Kris Benson or Home Run Champ Gregory Polanco.

A few words of advice to those that fall into either these camps within the Pittsburgh Pirates Fanbase.

Don’t waste your time daydreaming about Bob Nutting not being the owner. You’ll drive yourself-and others-crazy with a near constant desire to change something you have absolutely no control over; like trying to rewrite history. And, when it comes to players, follow the stats to discover actual progress in development; or to make predictions if you must. Sure you might be wrong, and end up eating a little bit of crow in the end, but you won’t ever be left wondering what if…?

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

1-3-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Every week on Monday, right at 5, this entry makes it’s way to wherever you are and sometimes these thoughts will evolve into a full blown piece. Believe it or not, this entry is quite literally just a flurry of thoughts, and your discussions that this piece spawns help me form those longer form fleshed out looks at a subject.

We’ve done this for over 2 years now, and I’m still excited every week that someone is going to see something I missed on a topic and take me to school, because rest assured, every week someone does.

Let’s dig in.

1. 124 – 49 = Uh Oh

The Pittsburgh Pirates hit 124 homeruns in 2021 and that was good for dead last in the league, a full 20 behind the number 29 team the Arizona Diamondbacks and 138 behind the number one Toronto Blue Jays.

Power was an issue, and was going to be an issue in 2022 regardless of who they let go, but as we prepare for the 2022 season, it’s important to realize the Bucs have moved on from 49 of those 124 homers before we see one pitch.

That’s players like Colin Moran who hit 10, Gregory Polanco with 11, Phil Evans with 5. What that number doesn’t factor in is the very real possibility that Michael Perez who hit 7 isn’t on the 40-man and is no lock to make the roster, Rodolfo Castro and his 5 dingers isn’t a lock either.

Power is a real problem.

They don’t need to hit as many as the Jays to be successful, but I’d like to think topping 150 is about the bare minimum. So where does it come from?

Reynolds already popped 24 last season and his style isn’t to swing for 50, but he’s probably good for in the ballpark of 25-30 you’d figure. Yoshi Tsutsugo hit 8 in his truncated time with the Bucs, a full season of him could certainly help. A healthy Ke’Bryan Hayes you’d hope would add to his total a bit too, the power drop from him was dramatic after the injury.

After that, it’s anybody’s guess. Oneil Cruz could certainly add pop, but he’s got to get here first, maybe one of the outfield prospects can contribute. Either way, it’s a huge problem and will be moving forward because of all the talent coming, power isn’t plentiful. Something to keep an eye on as the team makes moves. Don’t be shocked if you see them targeting more with this skill set and maybe not just this skill set emerging like it did for Jack Suwinski.

There’s no magic number they have to hit, but it stands to reason if they’re last in this category, and aren’t efficient at manufacturing runs, we’ll see similar results.

2. Thank History for Keeping Your Baseball Team in Pittsburgh

There are exactly two major reasons that this baseball team has survived utter incompetence for decades. One is their status as the oldest National League team that hasn’t changed it’s name since joining from the American Association in 1887. The Reds would join them shortly thereafter in 1889 despite minor name changes they’ve remained some version of Reds.

The other is Roberto Clemente. When people tell you that the Great One is seen as a saint in his native Puerto Rico, they aren’t exaggerating. There are life size statues sprinkled everywhere and he’s still the king both on and off the field.

Fans of Roberto won’t adapt well to seeing his uniform no longer exist and MLB has moved mountains to ensure this team doesn’t move.

In fact that’s largely how Bob Nutting came to own the team in the first place. He was part of the group that purchased the Pirates back when PNC Park was still a twinkle in someone’s eye. They were underfunded, but MLB turned a blind eye, only really ensuring MLB didn’t lose this franchise, right where it’s supposed to be.

I say this because many of you seem to think this club is one shift of whim by Nutting from being moved, and I’m here to tell you this isn’t the same as Ford deciding to make cars outside Detroit. MLB would, and has stood in the way of this every time it’s come up. Most recently during 1995 MLB wanted to put a team back in DC, and the Pirates were up for sale and playing in a dual purpose cookie cutter stadium we all still loved named Three Rivers Stadium. Enter Kevin McClatchy who led the group, negotiated a new ball park and ultimately forced the Expos to move instead.

Never say never, but there’d be no real rationale for doing so at this point. The Pirates as an on field product have underwhelmed and been run poorly, but as a business, have done quite well, plus the ballpark is universally seen as one of the best in the game.

Even if Nutting wanted to, MLB won’t move the line on this anytime soon, and I’ll leave it on this, if they do ever wind up moving it, we’d wind up a lot more like Montreal than DC getting their third crack at a franchise. Be careful what you wish for, but also realize if you’re wishing for the team to relocate you better get a pickup truck full of quarters to wish with, there’s a lot working against you.

3. We Should Start to See Trades Change in Style

Way back when I was first getting into baseball, I can clearly remember my Grandma crying. It was 1987, and I had just secured my first ever set of Topps Baseball Cards I was excited to show her, but that was all pushed aside as she told me our favorite player Tony Pena was traded to St. Louis. The Pirates got a pitcher Mike Dunne, some fire plug looking dude named Mike LaValliere and this lanky outfielder named Andy Van Slyke.

We were devastated. She swore she’d never watch again (a regular occurrence in her house) but this wasn’t the disaster we thought it was going to be, in fact it was a key move that really kicked the team into overdrive as they steadily headed toward their first pennant since the 70’s.

Point is, this is the type of move we’re going to have to see before this story is written. I won’t guess as to who that’ll be, but I’m positive it’s going to confirm the “they trade everyone as soon as they get good” narrative. Let’s say for giggles that Kevin Newman finds his way back to being an offensive spark plug and keeps playing defense like last season. Well, the competition on the way for his position could make him expendable and more importantly, he could return something they don’t have, like a starting pitcher, or a solid young backup catcher.

Keep your eyes open this year, trades aren’t primarily going to be driven by moving stars for prospects moving forward through the next 3-4 seasons, now they should start to be methods for addressing holes in the build and before it’s all over you might find your grandma crying too.

4. Play To Your Strengths

As we discussed in point number one today, power isn’t this team’s friend. So adopting an approach to swing like they’re the ’27 Yankees might not be wise.

I think the beauty of baseball is that there are different ways to win, but some of the ways your talent might lead you aren’t exactly analytics friendly.

When you look at the Pirates active roster, and even the first wave of talent coming up, one thing stands out to me, speed and athleticism. That’s great, but this league has all but eliminated the stolen base from the game. It’s seen as a bad bet analytically speaking, and in little over 30 years we’ve gone from guys routinely cracking 100 swipes in a season to 47 taking the crown (via old friend Starling Marte) in 2021. Even that number is misleading, only one other player hit 40, 4 more had 30+, it’s just not a part of the game like it used to be.

We often look at the Pirates talent pool and ask questions just like I did about the homeruns, but maybe this self described analytics driven team should toss aside the modern “rule” book and take advantage of what they have. It doesn’t have to be stolen bases, but putting the runners in motion to avoid double plays, and bunting guys over (I know, bunts are bad too) to keep the lineup rolling to the few guys who can hit dingers might just work for this team.

Look, I believe in analytics, it’s based in fact and statistics and I’d normally never advise such a thing, but the makeup of this club tells me they might need to see if being an outlier could swing things into them being a team that shows those rules aren’t universal.

The stolen base numbers dwindling is almost willful in the league. Guys aren’t trying and none of that has changed the percentage of success when they do. Perhaps there’s a sweet spot in there where the Bucs could take advantage of some teams who haven’t seen old school baseball in a minute and catch a few flat footed.

Hey, it’s a thought. Power is expensive and rarely available on the market. To me, they’ll either have to do something different along the lines of what I just touched on, or plug their nose to the strikeout problems some power hitters have (like Mason Martin) and use him for the 20-25 he’ll run into anyway.

I don’t mean that Reynolds and Hayes or Yoshi should be taking off every 1-1 count. But maybe when Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker bat and one get’s on, the other should primarily focus on getting to the next man with a runner in scoring position. This isn’t revolutionary, I’m simply saying someone needs to be a Jay Bell type in that lineup, and while I don’t hold out a ton of hope they’ll do more of it, short of waiting for them to develop or acquire 7 guys who can hit like the rest of the league seemingly does, hey, think different.

5. The Next Two Weeks are Key

If we don’t start hearing some major nuggets in the next couple weeks from MLB and the MLBPA I expect we’ll lose some of Spring minimally.

Many have speculated that neither side would be willing to lose money in this process following a the 2020 season that cost both dearly, but most of the player negotiators aren’t going to struggle as they’re the highest earners by in large to begin with and the owners won’t worry until what they aren’t paying players starts to even out with what they’re losing in revenue.

Bottom line, I don’t think an early lock out would have been called in the first place if these sides were close. They could have easily waited until a week before camp if they thought there was any chance they’d avoid missing time.

I can’t stress this one enough, this is so much bigger than Millionaires vs Billionaires. Simplify it if you choose, but this head didn’t form without multiple pressure points pushing and pulling to create a perfect storm. The longer it goes, the more likely it is that the league actually changes something that matters. Over time, nature will take it’s course on some of baseball’s inequities anyway, and it’d be great if someone would demonstrate to each side how streaming services and the continued slow death of cable will eliminate much of the revenue imbalance all on it’s own.

MLB owns 100% of the streaming rights and as this method continues to evolve it’ll become more and more of the dominant way fans get access to their team’s game. Well, MLB splits that revenue evenly already, so in many ways, problem solved.

Dejan Kovacevic did a great job covering this subject today in his Daily Shot of Pirates. Check it out if you get time. I’ve written about this before, specifically the lawsuit filed by a large cable company in LA, but his synopsis is really good.

The Pirates Should Not Sign a Starting Pitcher, Unless…

1-2-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Before I get started here, I’m probably talking about something that’s already been decided. Ben Cherington said he wants to bring in another starting pitcher, and it’s rare to get such a direct stating of intentions from a GM. It’s probably happening.

Here’s my thing, if whomever they’re bringing in isn’t the nailed on best, or second best starting option on the team, don’t bother.

In other words if you aren’t going to bring in someone who is clearly better than the options this club already has, all that would really be accomplished is preventing us from getting eyes on someone else.

I can’t do this without looking at the current setup.

My projected starting rotation is Jose Quintana, Bryse Wilson, Zach Thompson, JT Brubaker, and I’ll go with Mitch Keller. These aren’t in any particular order, and I’m completely fine if you want someone from the next group to swap in.

Because they really do have more options, Wil Crowe, Jerad Eickhoff, Max Kranick, Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, Dillon Peters, Cody Bolton, Omar Cruz (if he survives the rule 5 draft), and even Osvaldo Bido.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think they have a rotation so dominant that upgrading is impossible, but let’s not see this club try to give Matt Harvey or Jake Arrieta recapture what they used to be.

There are guys who could be real upgrades and measuring sticks out there like Tyler Anderson, Kwang-hyun Kim, or Danny Duffy, but I’d rather see someone like this brought in for a few seasons to provide stability and leadership.

Maybe what I’m trying to say here is better put like this, there are enough guys already here that I think this club needs to see and really evaluate that I don’t want to see another back of the rotation retread brought in who won’t really help make the club better but serves to stunt the process.

If this club comes out of 2022 and they still have questions like do we think Mitch Keller is a starting pitcher, this year has been wasted. If they want to legitimately augment this rotation and provide an anchor with experience to help guide the youth along, hey that’s a different story.

This isn’t about money, I mean to tell you I don’t care if they want to pay 10 million a year to someone who really shouldn’t come close to that salary, it’s not my money, I just want to make sure we’re answering questions about this wave, now. Next season these numbers really start to get insane as members will jump up from AA and want their shot like Quinn Priester, Michael Burrows, Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, maybe even Luis Oviedo or Tanaj Thomas.

All of the guys I mentioned save Quintana and Eickhoff are under team control beyond this year, and while it’s great to have a ton of options, it’s less great to have all those options and not answer questions as to whether they should or could help this club get better.

At some point you have to start letting the young guys earn their stripes, I’d prefer that come in a season where the team still isn’t dreaming of contention. I want the rookie worked out of some guys now, not next year. I’d like to end 2022 with 3 guys I legitimately want to see in the rotation come 2023 and a handful more I think deserve more time. That’s going to be hard to accomplish if they bring in someone on a one year deal who they deal in July. Spots are valuable, and I’d like to see them treat them as such.

I guess for me, if you’re going to bring someone else in, let’s make it a guy we see being part of the solution. Bring in a guy for 2 or 3 years who no matter where he falls in the rotation is a lock to be part of it. I could get behind that, buy some consistency.

What I can’t get behind is buying a roadblock right as rush hour starts. They have worked hard to get to the point where this franchise has more MLB or close to MLB ready arms for the rotation and the next step is to start using them, and deciding if they’re ultimately bullpen arms, or hopefully understanding that they have some guys who really have a future leading this team from the middle of the diamond.

Health will obviously fail for some players and that creates opportunity. Performance will of course prompt shuffling of these arms up and down, so it’s not like that entire list is going to die on the vine, but barring a catastrophic plague of season enders, as I look at this list right now, they have so many I already don’t see them working through them all.

Look at a guy like Luis Oviedo, he’ll likely start in AA this season after spending all season on the MLB club as a rule five pickup. He’s on the 40 man and probably doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being back in the bigs this year. His status on the 40 man is simply to not waste the spot he ate in 2021, and in 2023 he’ll be expected to have it all pay off by at least being a viable call up. That’s one guy, but it’s also the story with a bunch of these guys. They have to start understanding what they have.

I mean maybe they think they do, and what they believe is out of that long list only 4-5 of them really belong in the conversation. If so, man they better go get two, and they still better be in the grouping I talked about. Enough Chase DeJong’s. Enough of that sort of pick up in general, the system has been hammered into shape and it’s time to start letting it show ripened fruit.

What do you think? Should the Pirates sign another pitcher just to add another guy, or should there be a level to which a new signing has to reach?

The Great, We Hope, Unknown

1-1-22 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Somewhere during 2021, Ke’Bryan Hayes went from a nailed on superstar to a guy few are even discussing when talking about 2022.

If you just review his timeline it makes total sense. He debuted in a 2020 and hit like Ted Williams, started out the 2021 season with a bomb confirming almost everyone’s Rookie of the Year predictions, then fell to a seemingly benign injury that turned out to be a lingering issue even after his return to the lineup.

He never missed a step with the glove, but he certainly never recaptured the form at the plate he displayed in 2020.

Blame the injury if you like, credit the league for pushing back against a rookie who embarrassed almost every pitcher he faced for his first 5 weeks as a MLB player. Some of us warned that he was exceeding his projections in 2020, but even we can’t decipher how much of his 2021 was injury driven vs oil finding it’s level.

I like to look at Ke’Bryan’s 2020 and 2021 together, if you add them all together you start to get a pretty well rounded picture of what his “rookie” season really looked like.

Combined he’s had 447 at bats, 125 hits, 11 homeruns with a .280 average. Man, you’d take that wouldn’t you? That all adds up combined with his glove to a 4.2 WAR player, a more than capable starter in this league.

Great start.

If we all hadn’t seen that concentrated 2020 performance that drew valid comparisons to some of the greatest players to ever play the game, perhaps we’d even appreciate it.

While Hayes had a definitive drop off after returning from injury, he’s also put together a stat line that any rookie should be proud of. He’s certainly not done anything to shake the confidence of the team or fans that he’s a bust. Yet he’s rarely mentioned as more than a given he’ll be at third base, and a tentative hope he “figures it out”.

Figures it out.

I mean, if a rookie gives you that kind of production we just discussed, I’m not sure that works. I mean, I’d like to see him get healthy which by all accounts he now is. I’d like to see him get back to pulling the ball on occasion, that’s where his greatest power potential lies.

Injury aside, that’s what really happened to Hayes, he lost the balance in his approach at the plate. It made him attackable, something that wasn’t true in his 2020 sample. When he came back from injury he had an approach that did more to rob him of his power stroke than the injury itself, and he discovered that very thing himself at the end of the season. Probably started trusting his hand and wrist more too, which shouldn’t be discounted. Even with that, he didn’t really get around to pulling it again. In fact he went a stretch of almost 3 months without a single hit to the left side of the field.

That’s like playing a round of golf with only your driver, pitching wedge and putter. You can get the job done, but you’re also going to leave a lot of shots on the course.

He’ll get this part of his game back, that’s part of the evolution of a player. Finding something that works for you is sometimes one small tweak away. Unfortunately so is falling into a bad habit.

Before the injury and especially after it, Hayes could be had with a well placed slider on the outside. An adjustment to reach that pitch had two distinct repercussions, first, pitchers simply started placing that pitch off the plate either getting swings or takes, and second opened the inside part of the plate to much easier executed pitches.

This is all part of the learning process.

Bryan Reynolds in 2020 struggled with any pitch down and in as a lefty, as well as the high fastball. It was a shortened season, and while I completely understand why Bryan would happily just forget it ever happened, I prefer to assume had it been a normal season he’d have figured it out to a degree and come back to the norm.

I expect Ke’ to get right back to looking like not only someone we look at as a wonderful fielder, to a solid all around ball player in 2022.

We can look past him to the next group of prospects on their way, but that’s discounting the overall success Hayes has been so far. Truth be told, if anyone coming up produces that stat line in their first 450-500 at bats, well, I’ll be first in line to call it a win.

This team will need superstars if they’re going to call this a success to be sure, but they’ll also simply need successful players. So when one shows himself to be that as a baseline early on, take the win, it’s gotta start there.

Don’t expect Hayes to play 162 games looking like he did in 2020, just take solace in the fact it’s in there and he’s capable of giving the team that kind of production along with his steady baseline he’s proven.

This journey is going to be filled with can’t miss guys who don’t make it. Guys we wrote off who step up and prove they were overlooked. And if everything goes extremely well, a bunch of guys who simply become good, to above average major league ball players. Let’s not act like that’s a failure when it happens.

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Speeding Up Or Slowing Down The Process

Each time I have thought about writing this blog post, Matthew McConaughey’s character from Dazed and Confused has popped into my head; voicing one of his more familiar catchphrases, “It’d be a lot cooler if you did”. But instead of you, he responds with they; referring to the possibility of a certain number of Pirates Prospects working out in Ben Cherington’s current installment of a rebuild in Pittsburgh.

Obviously they are not all going to become productive Major Leaguers, however, the greater number that do make an impact at PNC Park will potentially bring winning back to Pittsburgh sooner rather than later. Which really got me thinking about some prospects in particular that could really have an influence on the timeline; either positively or negatively, depending on their development path through the system.

Now, the repercussions of almost any-if not all-prospects won’t be as far reaching as say how picking the correct franchise quarterback can affect an NFL team, but there is something to be said about flat out missing on a pick, trade, etc. or being able to develop player(s) that fit a position of need.

For the Pirates, the most influential prospect at the moment would most likely have to be Oneil Cruz. As Gary wrote in an article the other day, “He has a ton of weight on his shoulders, because if he isn’t a piece, the Pirates will have to wait for the next wave to see one most likely, and in many ways, Cruz will help this club decide how far away they are.”

Outside of Cruz several other prospects exist that could potentially help make things a little bit easier to keep the Pirates moving forward, which is where I would like to shift my focus to; at least for the moment.

1) Henry Davis

Even though it was already somewhat of a forgone conclusion, ever since the Pirates called his name at 1:1 in this year’s MLB Draft, that Henry Davis was seen as the Pirates Catcher of the Future, it feels like the need for this to happen on a fast track -and of course for him to be successful-was amplified by the recent departure of Jacob Stallings. Now, for those of you that have gotten into debates with me, read my thoughts on the decision or heard my commentary on the podcast, this has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not Roberto Perez is going to be an adequate replacement for Stallings. To me this is all about the length of player control to bridge the gap between whoever is the current Pirates backstop and Davis. With Stallings that equated to three more years, through 2024, while Perez is only locked down for 2022. Obviously, they could bring in another catcher next year, or re-sign Perez if he is willing and able, but a lot of this uncertainty is now more dependent on how Davis performs in 2022; along with the hope that he will be up in the Majors at some point 2023.

Thus far he only has 31 professional at bats to his name and 46 innings behind the plate, so it’s hard to know exactly what to make of Davis. One thing we do know is that he is dedicated to his craft, even starting to learn Spanish in order to better communicate with his Latin pitchers.

For Davis the receiving end of catching is where he needs the most work, but as always the bat will be the clear deciding factor as how quickly he is moved through the ranks. The glove can be polished on the job if necessary.

2) Nick Gonzales

As Cherington’s inaugural first round pick, Gonzales was immediately bestowed with extra pressure and expectations from many within the Pirates Fanbase. Seen almost universally as a Top 5 player, and as the most developed college bat in his class by many, some of these immediate reactions could be seen as justified to a certain degree; even if there were questions concerning the friendliness of his home ballpark and the level of competition he played against.

In the beginning of the year Gonzales started to put much of the doubt to rest with a solid .294/.368/.549 slash line; yet, as the season progressed this skepticism that existed began to slowly surface. Following the fracturing of his pinky-an injury that kept him on the shelf for a little over a month-June and July were extremely rough for Gonzales. During that time his average dipped to .216 and his strikeout rate skyrocketed to 32.6%, while his walk rate stayed below 10%.

Then came August. On the month Gonzales posted a .346 AVG with a 1.176 OPS, as he mashed 10 of his 19 homers on the season. Eventually this production would tail off slightly as he hit .250 in September and saw his strikeout rate rise back up over 30%. Luckily this time his walk rate came along with it at a 23.3% clip.

On the season as a whole Gonzales put up a respectable .293 AVG and a .937 OPS with 47 total extra base hits before eventually going on to bat .380 in the Arizona Fall League.

When it comes to Gonzales the path to the Majors is slightly crowded at the moment with 8 spots being taken up on the 40-Man by players at the middle infield positions that are ahead of him as far as assignments are concerned; with none really grasping firmly on to their spots. The ninth belongs to his double play partner at Greensboro, Liover Pegeuro. Clearly this doesn’t mean that he can’t be promoted within the system, he will just have to do so more forcefully than a player with an open position waiting for him; which almost everyone is fully expecting him to do. The timing of these promotions is where fans differ as some still think the final one is going to happen at some point this season.

3) Quinn Priester

For the purpose of this exercise I probably could have picked several players from the Greensboro Grasshoppers Opening Day Starting Rotation, or possibly just lumped the whole group together. However, Priester seems to be the one that is always mentioned from this particular group; being labeled as the one true potential ace within the farm system.

Drafted by Neil Huntington as his final first round pick, Priester caught the eye of scouts during the lost MiLB season with his brief work at the Alternate Site in Altoona, as well as his performance in the Instructional League that fall. Touted as a potentially being the best pitcher in the Minor Leagues headed into last year, the bar was set extremely high. Almost too high to actually be reached.

Due to these higher than high expectations some may look at Priester’s overall numbers and be a little bit disappointed, but seeing as it was his first full year in professional ball-and possibly playing a level up-it’s hard to hold very much against him; especially as a high school arm that usually takes longer to develop-its hard to feel that way.

On the season Priester posted a 3.04 ERA and a 1.239 WHIP, while remaining fairly consistent for the entire season. His 4.26 ERA over his final three starts of the season was less than ideal, but we have to remember that he was fast approaching 100 innings after a season off the previous year. It’s totally possible that his young arm was just starting to tire.

4) Liover Peguero

Peguero is in a similar situation to Gonzales as there is an abundance of depth at the middle infield positions ahead of him. Yet, as also mentioned before, there isn’t a single player that has consistently taken control of either position.

In trying to estimate Peguero’s potential, fans have their sights set pretty high due to him being Ben Cherington’s first major acquisition; seeing him as the other half of the Nick Gonzales led double-play tandem for years to come. Obviously it would be great if this happened, and they were both productive, but it’s hard to see it as much of a need on L end for the overall success of the Pirates because Cruz should be there.

Also, as many of you already know-from a previous article -I am slightly concerned about his performance at High-A Greensboro due to his home and road splits, so I have already resigned myself to the fact that Peguero is kind of a bonus in the overall build to either take over for Cruz if he doesn’t stick or move to another position if he does.

5) Mason Martin

Martin’s place on this list is mostly position based, which is the exact same reason I thought Ben Cherington and Company would protect from the MLB Rule 5 Draft. As the top first base prospect in the system by both rank and level, he has the opportunity to be the first player at this position to be homegrown-and developed properly-since Kevin Young when he debuted back in 1993.

Sure the position could be filled by someone who simply changes position in the manner that Young and Martin have, although most-if not all-that would fit this specific profile currently sit in the lower Minor Leagues. The other option is free agency, which can always be a costly venture. Each year there are a few consistent players with power on the market, however every one of them could end up costing $10 to 15 million+ per year. Still, as much as we would like this to be in the cards for the Pirates, it doesn’t seem like a realistic way to acquire talent at first base under the current management and overall landscape of baseball.

So, at the moment it is Yoshi at the helm with Martin waiting in the wings; baring the latter’s plausible selection in the MLB Rule 5 Draft, if and when it takes place. Albeit, the same reason he wasn’t protected-his ever increasing strike rate-may be the reason he isn’t selected.

Conclusion

Ben Cherington has stated more than once that much of the talent at the Majors will need to be developed through the Pirates own Farm System. Well, the time has come for him to put his money where his mouth is. He has spent two full years acquiring prospects-and a few MLB ready players-through trades, the draft, international signings, free agency and the waiver wire; eventually fans are going to need to start seeing the fruits of all this labor, with these five players being a really good place to start.

And even if the chances of all of them working out is slim, I can’t help but think that it’d sure be a lot cooler if they did.

Evidence of the Pirates Build Progressing is All in the Numbers

12-29-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

So very much of this game is built around numbers. There are averages, win totals, ERA’s, hell there are even prospect rankings and each position is given a number. Baseball is in its purest sense, all about numbers.

I’m going to talk today about a different set of numbers, yes, today we’re going to focus on the sheer numbers of viable players coming in waves, and we’re going to show how that’s evolved in just a couple short years.

So let’s get right to the point.

The 2022 number of internal prospects we can reasonably expect to be ready to contribute to the MLB club is by my count 8 or 9.

In 2021 that same number was 3 or 4.

Back in 2020 the Bucs were hoping 1 or 2 could help.

And here’s what makes that really cool, I see that number actually going up in 2023 complete with a much more well built MLB roster. That also doesn’t even factor in one free agent, meaning I don’t think that number increases because the team brings in a bunch of guys to clog up the works and force the prospect pool to congest itself.

These numbers don’t represent the number of guys who will come up here and earn roster spots for the next 6-7 years, but simply having those sheer numbers of potentials is a step in the right direction.

People tend to only really see, or believe a rebuild is moving forward when they see it happen at PNC Park, and I’m not here to judge, we’re rooting for the Pittsburgh Pirates after all, not their affiliates. Sure, it’d be nice if they all did well and ultimately that tends to lead to success at the MLB level, but for most fans (probably not people reading an article on December 29th, during a lockout BTW) this whole thing isn’t real until they start seeing fruit where it counts.

Since the Pirates traded Starling Marte and drafted Nick Gonzales I’ve been saying 2022 would start to show some of this, and 2023 would really be the first team that is a true reflection of “they built this”.

If this system is built correctly, and churning the way it should, the franchise should have 4-5 guys just about every season who you can reasonably expect to debut and contribute. Keeping that rolling is a challenge few teams have accomplished. As a team improves, the draft position tends to at least gravitate toward the middle of the pack and eventually into the 20’s. That’s where the International draft and smart moves need to be made to ensure the pipeline remains healthy.

That’s probably putting the cart before the horse a bit here. They still have to tackle that actually getting good part first, but this path is fairly well defined. Neal Huntington was successful at the first part, developed a nice chunk of his playoff teams, made some good moves to fill it out, but he was unable to sustain it. In fact he panicked himself into making it worse at the end. The system is key here, it’s not just about getting good players, it’s about getting good players across the finish line. It’s about not having guys stall in AAA repeatedly. These are all things we simply won’t know have improved until we’ve seen it in action.

The Pirates have instituted new development camps, hired and expanded development staff, replaced and upgraded equipment and training tools throughout the organization, and shifted the focus to an individualized approach to instruction. There’s a list of just a few things implemented to make this effort pay off, but nobody can tell you it’ll work.

I can tell you its nowhere near as dysfunctional in 2021 as it was in 2018. I can tell you the prospects I talk to who were here all along frequently tell me they wish it was like this when they were in rookie ball. I can tell you this organization is no longer waiting for a laundry list of predetermined accomplishments to be met before they advance. All that, and I still can’t comfort you and tell you it’ll work.

All I can say is the numbers are trending in the right direction, they’re getting some unheralded guys who have taken to the training and earned themselves an opportunity, and what they’re building looks to be much more sustainable.

This stuff isn’t the same as signing someone who’s name you recognize to play second base and hit 23 homeruns, I get that. This stuff is more about developing players that exceed the replacement level MLB player in the first place. That creates real measuring sticks for others to surpass, and it creates real value to move for real MLB players to fill holes or even backfill the system when lower draft picks start becoming a regular occurrence.

Major League Baseball is in the process of deciding exactly how rookie deals will be handled and constructed, well, they will be when they actually start talking again anyhow, but setting up a cascading system like this should insulate this club from having a barren cupboard even if it means losing guys a little earlier.

This part of Cherington’s job isn’t going to generate a ton of excitement for the general public, and it’s hard to even promote because to 99% of fans the drills and exercises look exactly the same as they ever did. We aren’t privy to the analytics crew scouring through all the new data being collected, and we certainly aren’t hearing how that directly effects the individual plan for a player.

We have seen the club inviting journalists to these development camps though, and they’re leaving it up to them to decide for themselves that what they’re seeing is different. They aren’t selling this as much as lifting the curtain in the hopes it will sell itself, and thus far, it is for those willing to look.

Again, we’re in a lockout, so nobody participating is going to touch MLB this year in all likelihood, but watching guys who struggled with control last year, now hitting their spots without a drop in velocity is a positive thing. Building a development system is almost as important as acquiring good players.

Living in Pennsylvania, I think this analogy fits. It doesn’t matter how fast your odometer says your car can go if you drive on Pennsylvania roads you’re only going to go so fast. Well, it stands to reason, it doesn’t matter how talented a player is, if the development system is rigid and ineffective, they’re only going to get so good.

I like what I’m seeing on this front, and in all seriousness, this is the real track record Ben Cherington brought to the table in the first place. Building a system that produces MLB ready talent is a skill set almost as important as recognizing talent in the first place.

You know what, maybe some of you are right. Maybe this is a never ending rebuild. In fact, I kinda hope so.