Let’s Deep Dive on the Pirates Outfield Situation

12-14-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates have more questions than answers as we wait for 2022 to start, but I think when looking position by position you start to see some conversations change from last year to the next. I’m going to spend some time this offseason really digging in on who’s here, who’s in the top portion of the system, and who could be available from outside the organization for different positions. Today, as the headline would suggest, we’ll be discussing the outfield.

I should also add in here, spare me your comments like “if there’s a 2022 season”, first of all, it’s highly unlikely either side has the stomach to miss an entire season of games, and until I’m proven wrong, I’ll operate under the assumption things will work themselves out. I don’t need to be right on this, I just don’t care to spend 20 minutes finding a creative way to remind you baseball is in a lock out every time I sit down to write. As news and rumors start to creep out, I’ll address the situation directly and adjust if needed based on the process developing.

Ok, so the Pirates have a bad situation in the outfield overall, I don’t think that’s a shock, but it’s better than last season.

To illustrate this, I think we really need to revisit where we were come Spring in 2021. The Pirates had Bryan Reynolds, planted firmly as the left fielder where team executives felt he would be a gold glove candidate. Gregory Polanco who at best needed to be viewed as a prayer to provide anything positive to the cause. Brian Goodwin who was signed to a minor league contract with a player executable out clause. Dustin Fowler who was picked up late in the process and I’d argue directly caused Goodwin to not make the roster. Anthony Alford who looked decent in 2020 before breaking his arm making a catch and came into 2021 as the presumed center fielder. Troy Stokes who was picked up as a waiver claim and finally you get to the two real prospects, Jared Oliva and Travis Swaggerty. Oliva was injured in Spring and Swaggerty shortly thereafter.

Take a moment and really think about how clear it was, even then, that this team was in trouble from the outset in this position.

To me, Fowler was a mistake. It cost the Pirates having Brian Goodwin who isn’t great but at least could handle the position and had a track record of being a Major League hitter. It would take the Pirates damn near half a season and a gauntlet of failed attempts to finally land on Ben Gamel.

Now that was last season, and while I don’t enjoy looking back on arguably the messiest position on the team, I do think there are lessons to be learned and I believe it really illustrates how different the setup for 2022 will be.

On the Active Roster

Heading into 2022 the Pirates have Bryan Reynolds at Center Field, and at this point that’s fine. He likes playing there and until there is someone more physically capable of playing there and his bat matters enough to make sure he’ll play a lot, why mess with that? I still believe Reynolds is a Gold Glove caliber corner outfielder, not to say he isn’t a good center fielder but ideally someone with a bit more range would find his way there at some point.

They still have Ben Gamel, and he’s really someone I’d love to see be the fourth outfielder, but he’ll absolutely start on this club. That in and of itself says there is still much work to do. He’ll make some outstanding plays, but his defensive metrics aren’t quite what you’d think based on the incredible efforts he has put on tape. Look, he’s a good player, he also isn’t a starter on a good team.

Another familiar name here is Anthony Alford. He’s fast. He looks like he could run through a brick wall if that’s what it took to get the job done. Problem is he can’t use his speed effectively to steal bases, just can’t figure out how to get a proper jump, and I’m sorry, at 27 years old, ain’t nobody teaching him how. In reality he’s probably just about to the age where slowing down a bit starts to happen. He’s a great defender, has power, but simply can’t stop striking out and it goes without saying but that too prevents him from adequately utilizing his speed. He’s in the running to start one of the corner spots, because, well, you’ll see.

Greg Allen was claimed by the Pirates from the New York Yankees. The Yankees always have players like this (you may remember Hoy Park), because unlike teams such as Pittsburgh, guys like Allen are seen as not good enough to compete in the now, so they go buy MLB players and effectively block him unless he is touched by the mighty hand of the lord and starts looking like a late bloomer, he was always destined to run out of time. As Pirates fans we love to assume guys like this are a product of what I just described and opportunity will lead to hopefully finding free talent, unrealized by the impatient Yankees. I’d argue it doesn’t work out that way often, but I can’t sit here and tell you it never works, so taking a shot isn’t the worst idea.

On the 40-man

Now this is really the difference this year, the Pirates have a nice group of prospects who could factor in this season, something that we saw last season really matters. Especially since 3 of the guys we’ll discuss have had injury issues.

Jared Oliva is a guy quite frankly I was surprised survived the 40-man purge. The Pirates were not pleased with his approach at the plate last Spring and sent him along with Cole Tucker to train independently in Bradenton rather early, it was at this training site that Jared would fall to injury. A nasty, nagging injury to his oblique that prevented him from competing the program the Pirates outlined for him. He would earn a call up due to a glut of injuries but the Pirates were still not happy with his at bats and he would quickly find his way back to AAA seemingly to fade into the background. Probably as a direct result to his 2021, Oliva has played Winter ball in the Dominican this season and to date has performed relatively below the line, especially considering he’s playing in a league where his age differential as compared to competition is -3.7. He’ll still get a look in Spring, but unless something really clicks, I don’t see him as much more than a good defensive substitute.

Next up is our old friend Travis Swaggerty who feels like he’s been around forever but in reality was drafted in 2018. By now you all know how his journey has played out, played ok in Single A, worked at the alternate training site in 2020, lost all but 12 games to a nasty shoulder injury in 2021 after skipping AA and being assigned to AAA Indianapolis. He’s a premium defender, in fact if his bad dictates it he’s every bit the guy who could eventually force Reynolds to slide over, but he’s going to have to prove it first as moving a star doesn’t come off the cuff. Now here’s the poop, Swags has never hit like a first round pick. His glove as I mentioned is more than ready, but he has a long way to go to prove the bat is special, in fact he has some work to do to prove it’s replacement level. Bottom line, I see no way, no matter how he looks in Spring that he makes the club from the jump. He’s just not played enough, and even when he has he hasn’t shown enough. I didn’t even discuss just how catastrophic the shoulder injury was, but suffice to say, he has to prove he’s structurally sound too, we all saw what a nasty shoulder injury did to Gregory Polanco both in the field and at the plate. In fact most of the buzz around Travis is from the word of scouts who watched him perform at the alternate training site in 2020, so I think it should be fairly obvious the Pirates will need to see it in AAA a bit before he gets a crack.

Jack Suwinski was acquired from the Padres in the Adam Frasier deal at the deadline last year. I’d say his addition to the 40-man was a bit of a surprise but I’d also say it wasn’t a stretch. The 23 year old has not yet played in AAA but had a solid 2021 between Altoona and San Antonio where he saw power emerge in the form of 19 homeruns and 17 doubles with an OPS of .868. Defensively he’s above average and if the power remains he’s got the look of a future asset, thing is he will absolutely have to play some AAA before being a factor. He’s unique in that his 2019 made him look like exactly what most 15th round picks turn into, a guy who could field the position but couldn’t support it with the bat. San Diego promoted him to AA anyway and to his credit he took a jump forward.

Canaan Smith-Njigba is the final member of the 40-man I’d like to highlight here, he was acquired from the Yankees in the offseason for Jameson Taillon and hadn’t played since 2019 where he performed quite well hitting .307 with 11 homeruns, but losing 2020 was a hit for many prospects and you never know how a guy will respond until you see it. Canaan picked up right where he left off after joining Altoona but suffered some injury issues that prevented him from playing a complete season. His OPS of .805 earned him a trip at the end of the season to AAA and ultimately a spot on the 40-man. Of all the outfield prospects to me this 22 year old is the best of the bunch and has the best shot to contribute to the big club in 2022, but he too needs to do some work in AAA.

Guys Who Could Move to the Outfield

If the Pirates are hell bent on filling the role internally, they have some options they could look to, and while I ultimately don’t care for many of them as a solution, in the short term we could see someone get a shot there if for no other reason than 7 guys can’t play second base.

First up let’s talk about Hoy Park, another of those Yankees squeeze outs we talked about who looked ok at best in his time with the Pirates last season. He’s a versatile fielder and that might contribute to his chances to make the club. If he hits for power the way he did in AAA before being acquired his bat might actually make him a viable outfield option, but to me he’s a last resort out there, he’s much more suited to the infield.

Many have suggested Oneil Cruz move to right field, and I won’t tell you that should be off the table, but I will say it can’t be something they try to do to an important prospect like this at the major league level. I think he’ll start in AAA regardless, but if he makes the club, it’ll be at short stop, and they aren’t likely to Cole Tucker the kid, his bat is just too important, even if I ultimately feel that’s where he’ll wind up.

Speaking of Tucker, they’ve already tried him out there, and while I hold out room that they’re lying, they claim to like what they’ve seen. I think he looks like an athletic guy making up for bad jumps and creating issues for Bryan Reynolds with his indecisiveness to take charge on balls hit in his direction. That said I can’t deny they probably see him as an option out there.

Michael Chavis has played outfield, primarily left field with Boston but he’s almost universally seen as a better option at first base or second base. His bat will tell the story, if he’s a backup for Yoshi and that’s all his stick warrants so be it, if they’d like to see his bat in the lineup at the same time as Tsutsugo more often he’ll have to find another position.

Yup, I have to mention Yoshi too. He reportedly made it clear when negotiating his contract that he wanted to play first base, now, I doubt that’s iron clad but at least to start I’d imagine he’ll get his request fulfilled. He didn’t look good in the outfield but did improve as the season went on so potentially he works his way back out there but to me he’d have to be better than Chavis out there and vice versa or they’re just creating a hole where there wasn’t one.

Rule 5 Options

Now, I wouldn’t get too excited here, especially since the reason I’m bothering to look into these options is the fact our own prospects aren’t exactly three swings away themselves, but to be as well rounded as possible I think we need to see what’s out there and at least consider it.

The most interesting player I see is Carlos Rincon from the Mets organization. He’s 24 and last year hit 22 homeruns and while he doesn’t walk enough, he doesn’t strike out at an alarming rate either.

Griffin Conine (son of Jeff the longtime MLB veteran) from the Marlins, is a legit power threat hitting 36 splitting time between High A and AA in 2021, the average suffered but his track record has been solid and his OBP still clocked in at .330 with an OPS of .860.

One more here and it’s a Dodger product, Ryan Noda. He’s a 25 year old left hander who can play first base and corner outfield. He played 113 games in Double A last year and belted 29 dingers. For his career he sits at .411 OBA, which says to me he’s at least worth a shot.

Free Agents (Realistic)

Well, I wanted him last year and nothing changed my mind, Joc Pederson. C’mon, you saw what he did for Atlanta. I just can’t get the visions of him destroying the Clemente Wall out of my head. Take a swing for 10 mil here and let the kids beat Gamel to make the show.

Alex Dickerson is another interesting guy, he’s not an upper echelon type but he’ll probably command somewhere in the 8-10 million range. The only issue I have with either of the first two I mentioned is I think they should really look for a right handed bat, so long as they plan on Gamel being a starter.

OK so here’s my dream signing, Tommy Pham. Right handed, probably will want more than 10 but who knows how the market shakes out, I wouldn’t want to pay more than that but he fills that right handed need and sits right in the middle of the lineup where this team needs a bat most.

Synopsis

This team is in better shape this year in the outfield, but it’s not going to show itself in April. Reality is they have 5 or 6 guys who need work but at least they aren’t already near their expiration date.

Reynolds is a great anchor, Gamel is a good measuring stick, and I give any of the guys on the 40 a shot at winning the job as the third and fourth, but if the team really wants to put pressure on the veterans and practice patience with the youngsters I’d recommend bringing in a vet, and not another Gamel, needs to be a step better than that. If not, don’t bother.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

12-13-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

As baseball continues to hibernate, this weekly feature is still churning along. Sometimes news is the very silence itself coming from both sides of this negotiation, other times the silence will cause people to take a crack at suggesting fixes. I don’t however expect to hear anything that tangibly feels like it came from either entity before Christmas. Remember this period of time if we do wind up missing games, because we’re already a week in on wasted time.

Now let’s dig in on this week’s thoughts.

1. Spending That Dough

MLB’s revenue sharing system is nebulous at best. You can get a rough estimate of how much each team receives, you can even track how some of it is spent, but nailing down every dollar is a chore.

I’m still in the research period for a piece I’m trying to put together detailing where the Pirates spend their revenue sharing dollars. This piece may never see the light of day, one thing many of you probably don’t realize is how many things Craig and I start and don’t finish. Sometimes that’s because our level of access simply isn’t good enough, sometimes it’s because the story we were digging into didn’t turn out to be an interesting story at all.

This one in particular so far in my research has proven to be worse, I’m actually finding contradictory “facts” which typically means there aren’t any.

Let’s talk about how MLB revenue sharing currently works and to make the conversation easier, let’s eliminate dollar values. Right now, teams that receive revenue sharing as required by the CBA that just expired, have to provide a list of how they’re spending those dollars to MLB. Meaning it doesn’t have to be spent on payroll, or infrastructure, it really is only limited by the imagination of what helps the team compete. This is where player grievances go to die by the way.

For instance, these training sites with Pirates youngsters you’re reading about in Bradenton right now, well, they’re likely using revenue sharing money for the entire operation. It’s not illegal, or unethical, but it’s obviously not what you tend to think of when hearing about the purpose of revenue sharing.

To me, this is one of the many issues that needs ironed out in the CBA. Major improvement in competitive balance could come from just ensuring the revenue sharing dollars primarily go to payroll as opposed to the autonomy the teams enjoy currently.

Again, I’m not picking on the training site as a bad investment, it’s smart actually to make sure all the draft picks and youngsters have a better foundation heading into next season, but it might be better for the league if they controlled the usage a bit.

2. Sneak Peek at ZiPS Projections

I suppose I should make sure everyone knows what the ZiPS projections are right? Well, it’s a system of player projections developed by Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs that was developed when he was at Baseball Think Factory. It’s not gospel, but it is a nice snapshot of where things are headed. The full post will be available today over at FanGraphs and I recommend you check it out.

You start to see some interesting things here. First thing that caught my eye, man they don’t like the pitching at all, and I can see that, but I’d also say it’s a symptom of evaluating youngsters. These projections are at least partially based on past performance so it stands to reason when you don’t have much past, and it wasn’t stellar, it’s going to be somewhat like this.

The left side of the infield looks to be pretty damn productive racking up nearly 7 wins, unfortunately the close to 7 wins from the pitching staff is pitiful.

Nobody is going to see these numbers and be shocked, but this also doubles as the site’s first crack at the depth chart as it stands. I think we’re still in for some changes but this shows a mild improvement believe it or not.

3. If There is No Season, Would It Be Good for Pittsburgh?

As we’ve broached before, if MLB’s lockout remains in place and we start losing games, the likelihood is we’ll still have minor league ball. So in a season where the Pirates are likely to not show much at the big league level should we almost feel positive about getting the progression of all these prospects without the pain of another underwhelming season in MLB?

This is a tough one for me. I see the logic, but I think questions being answered at the MLB level is a big part of development. I also think losing a year for everyone on the 40 could actually set this whole thing back.

Let’s take a guy like Travis Swaggerty. Drafted in 2018, played in 2019 and did . . . ok, 2020 was spent at the training site in Altoona, skipped AA altogether for AAA in 2021 and played all of a week before being lost for the season to injury. Now he’s on the 40-man and if this situation played out would not play baseball in 2022 either. That’s a long time to not play baseball, and this isn’t a 19 year old kid, he’s 24 and will have only played 12 games beyond Class A since 2020. Man, that’s no ideal.

It’s not that he wouldn’t be working hard on his own to stay in shape, but it’s hard to expect there’d be no effect from missing that much time. He’s not alone, anyone drafted in that time frame has suffered a lack of playing time, and another lost season might very well spell lost prospects in the end.

The more I think about it, the less I can find a way to paint it as a positive. Sure you as a fan don’t have to watch a bad baseball team in 2022, but you also enter 2023 with all the same questions you were going to enter 2022 with, and you get to add on the guys who need protected in that year on top of the guys you already had to work through. Turns into a mess real quick.

I guess I land on No. It’s not something we should hope for. Players like Swaggerty, Peguero, Cruz, and Contreras would lose progression and have other prospects running up their back. Enjoy watching it or don’t, that 162 games have to happen to sift through the roster and continue the development of others.

4. I Think We’re Beyond Big Trades for a While

I mean, obviously there won’t be any while MLB is locked out, but I’m talking more about the team even when they come back. Part of this is the reality that the Pirates non-tendered 3 candidates in the form of Colin Moran, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault, coupled with the fact they simply don’t have a bunch of guys nearing the end of their control with the club.

I mean let’s be honest, we’re really talking about players that matter, not guys like Ben Gamel or Chris Stratton, those guys could both find themselves moved this year but if things go right you’ll hopefully be ready for Mr. Gamel to find a new home because there are prospects who’ve made the decision easy.

More than anything, I don’t see anyone they could move that would net the high ceiling return this club has to be looking for.

In other words, I think it’s time to let this thing play out a bit now, work through some of the prospects and see how things work themselves out a bit. Now, to be fair, I felt the same about moving Jacob Stallings, but at some point stacking prospects turns into a traffic jam that prevents you from actually evaluating or providing real opportunity to guys you’ve brought in.

I’ll tell you what, I might be looking at this wrong, maybe there will be trades but they won’t be for the same reasons we’ve seen in recent years. Let’s put forward someone like Kevin Newman, he’s underwhelmed with the bat but his glove is elite. There have been teams interested and moving him certainly wouldn’t be for financial concerns, it could be for actual baseball reasons. Say Oneil Cruz, and Diego Castillo both show themselves to be contributors, well we could be looking at something we don’t see here often, trading a player to make room for a younger, better option.

As we sit here many of you are probably thinking hell yeah, but I wonder if you’d feel the same if he does figure things out with the bat.

Either way, the conversation is going to start changing a bit this year on trades. I see it being more about making room or even real baseball trades than amassing prospects. That might be the same result, but the thinking behind it is certainly not the same.

Let’s try and come up with a list of who to watch and why.

Kevin Newman/Cole Tucker – Both former number one picks. Kevin has has a season where he produced offensively (despite what his underlying stats said) and one good defensive season. Cole has a decent month under his belt. Both have plenty of control but you’d be selling hope, not track record per se. Part of me thinks either could net a decent reliever at the MLB level in a return and maybe that’s enough.

Mitch Keller – This would likely be an admission that this club has not reached the young man. There comes a point when a team has to give up on a youngster and again, you’d be selling the physical tools, not the performance. He’d have to do much the same as he did last season for the team to decide they’ve seen enough, but he’s borderline on being part of the solution at this point. Even if he figures it out he might just not time out as the club would like. One thing is for sure with Mitch, this is decision year.

That’s what I got. If you want to worry about Gamel or Stratton, guys like that, have at it, but for the most part, I see the days of looking over the entire roster anticipating trades as close to dried up which is really a reflection of where we are in the process.

5. What if MLB Goes to a Draft Lottery System?

I mean, how often do I say look at the other leagues and do what works? The NBA and NHL have a lottery for draft picks, the NFL doesn’t. All three are successful and I guess you could say tanking isn’t a thing for any of the three. Sure the Lions stink, but they’ve been in a ton of games this year even as their record is awful. Thing is if the NFL had a lottery I don’t think they’d win one more game than they’ll wind up with anyhow.

In the NHL we’ve seen first hand how these systems work. Before it existed the Penguins famously tanked to get Mario Lemieux, and won the lottery to get Sidney Crosby while not having the worst record in the league.

Long story short, if you say the worst 5 or 8 get in the lottery even if it’s unweighted by record with the odds of pulling the ping pong ball, it doesn’t change much beyond the perception of shooting to be the very worst.

This one to me would mean more to he national baseball writers than the game itself, but maybe that’s just me.

Bonus: Pirates Fan Forum Live!

On January 22nd at 2 PM, Jim Stamm and I will be live at the North Shore Tavern on Federal Street directly across from PNC Park for a live episode of the Pirates Fan Forum and we’d love it if you stopped by!

We’ll be taking live questions from those in attendance and it’ll also be live on YouTube but those that come to the event will get extra time to interact as we’ll hang out long past the filming.

It’s a great opportunity to get together with other baseball fans in a place filled with Pirates memorabilia and history, and I want to soak in as many stories and memories as you all can share.

The event is completely free and as we flesh out the plan for the show we’ll have more information to share. If you have points to make, please come down and be part of the show, we can’t wait to meet as many of you as possible.

The Pirates Plan Hasn’t Changed, Patience of the Fans Has

12-12-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I chose to start covering the Pirates right before the Pirates fired Neal Huntington and even before that move was made I knew this organization was about to embark on a painful process. I did so because I felt this market lacked someone you didn’t have to pay to read willing to tell you the hard truth as opposed to blowing smoke up your butt or overtly acting like they were one miser away from being the Dodgers.

See, I looked down the ranks in the system and saw something I knew this franchise wasn’t capable of overcoming, they just didn’t have enough to even pretend they could turn around the ship without major investment in the MLB product.

Before I dig in on this subject, let me clarify that last paragraph, because half of you will call bullsh*t if I don’t. When I say they weren’t capable of overcoming it, I mean had they tried to build on what was here, this season 2022 would have presented a problem. They’d be facing the last season for Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Adam Frazier. There are other players of course, but those four all expiring together would have made 2022 a cross roads. Extend a couple? OK. Trade some of them? Fine.

All the while the farm would have Oneil Cruz, Quinn Priester, (Maybe Nick Gonzales as I can’t say who they’d have drafted), Matt Fraizer, and Travis Swaggerty as the headliners on the way up. If you want to toss in more, fine, I didn’t see Fraizer coming for instance, maybe you did.

Point is, there wasn’t enough, close enough to comfortably move those guys and through arbitration and a few more signings they’d have probably been a .500 or a little better team. The way things were trending I think they might have gotten themselves into some semblance of contention at least for a wild card by 2021 but only if they went and bought a pitcher or two.

Instead, Ben Cherington saw what I did and decided that wasn’t good enough to win it all, and honestly not a good enough bet to secure a Wild Card Berth to keep it together. Boom goes the dynomite.

Lately I’ve seen people who were 100% on board with this effort when it began, starting to feel it’s failed because 2022 doesn’t look poised to produce a winner.

Say what?

So, you expected that Ben Cherington was going to go scorched earth on this depth chart over 3 off seasons, dragging young lottery tickets and slightly older prospects into the system and while maybe 2 or 3 guys acquired are ready to help this Spring, everything was going to turn around suddenly in 2022?

Why?

Were you not paying attention to what the Indianapolis Indians looked like last season? Maybe you missed that the team had to dive into the sewer that is the waiver wire fishing for warm bodies to throw pitches or pretend to know how to play the outfield.

Oh, I get it, you expected that they were acquiring all these prospects, many of which were promoted to AAA so the Indians actually have some talent to call on this season, so that suddenly this would be the year Cherington goes out and buys a ton of talent (who love one year contracts by the way) to fill out the MLB roster. That sounds a lot like what Bob Nutting teams usually do, I get it.

I mean, people c’mon here.

This is exactly what the plan has been. It’s part of why I get irritated with people who claim to cover this team seriously fill your heads with ideas that they’re going to go get an ace, or compete this year, or go buy this or that.

The plan hasn’t changed, not that they’ve ever told you what it was anyway.

It’s the logical path. 2022 starts to introduce new talent the team has developed and acquired since the very first trade. 2023 some of them will have grabbed hold of a spot on the roster and will be poised to be augmented by the next group and holdovers that didn’t stick in 2022. Then, maybe they add.

At least in any way that truly matters. They could need pitching, a first baseman, maybe they do have to go get that outfielder. Right now, there just isn’t much to be done that is going to change the outcome, but it could slow down the journey a bit for some of those prospects.

This is a rebuild.

Zeroing out the roster and then going on a spending binge is too.

The Pirates to nobody’s surprise chose method one.

If you want to be mad that 2022 is going to be marginally better than 2021 but not yet competitive, hey, do you, but don’t sit here acting like you haven’t been told different or you’re caught out of nowhere that Nick Gonzales isn’t ready because some moron you follow told you he would be.

There’s simply nothing shocking about where this team is poised to be in 2022 except maybe the catching position.

Ask yourself, did they acquire all these guys to made the minors good or to make MLB good?

Right.

So, why would they suddenly go all San Diego (in case you’re silly enough to believe that’s what’s coming, EVER) now, when all these guys are on the doorstep?

Maybe if the team itself would lay this thing out for you instead of some mope like me you’d take it better, but they simply won’t. For that matter no team would.

Seeing the path is like reading tea leaves, except reading the minor league system actually works.

Here’s a great for instance of why so many have gotten confused and actually think this whole thing is off schedule. When Nick Gonzales was drafted he was given an ETA by MLB Pipeline of 2022. I told you at the time that was insane. Craig told you at the time that was insane. Here we are in 2022 and he’s expected to start his season in AA Altoona. If he does everything right, and stays healthy he might earn a bump to AAA Indianapolis this season and next year he’ll be in the picture.

What ETA do they have listed for Nick now? 2022.

Sigh.

He’s not on the 40-man roster, meaning he doesn’t just have to be good, he’d have to be lucky. He’d need a bunch of middle infield options in front of him to fail, get hurt, traded, retire, or do PEDs I guess, and then maybe, maybe being that he’s so important the Pirates would add him to the 40 and bring him up. He’d have to jump Peguero who’s on the 40 too, and I don’t think he’ll sniff MLB this year either.

So sometime I’d guess in May, someone will ask me why the Pirates are holding Nick Gonzales back. It’ll probably be after he’s hit like 4 homeruns in a week and I mean I’ll probably just sigh again.

This year can be fun if you let it. You’ll see young players making their way up. You’ll see guys like Gonzales do what they have to do to contribute in 2023. You’ll see guys who you think they should put in front of the firing squad either prove you wrong or find the exit. One thing you won’t see though is a team arriving earlier than expected.

If that doesn’t match what you call a rebuild, cool, I’ll see ya in 2023 when it’ll be undeniable. Until then, go Nutting’s wallet I guess and the like.

Through The Prospect Porthole: Dariel Lopez Injects Youth Into The Pirates Farm System

12-11-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

When Minor League Baseball finally returned following the cancellation of the 2020 season, the landscape was extremely different from the last time each affiliate took the field. Most noticeably was the fact that some of these teams ceased to exist in their previous forms as the Advanced Rookie and Short Season A Levels of were completely eliminated; returning in the form of the MLB Draft League, a Collegiate Wood Bat League and MLB Partner Leagues. There were also realignments, which caused many organizations to move up or down the ladder within the Farm System of their parent Major League Ball Club.

For the Pirates this meant the end of their association with the West Virginia Black Bears and the Bristol Pirates, as well as a flip flop of the A Level Greensboro Grasshoppers and Bradenton Marauders; with the Marauders being set up in a simpler fashion to transition players back and forth with the Black and Gold Teams of the newly named Florida Complex League.

As a fan of Major League Baseball it was a difficult transition to know that I wouldn’t be able to drive an hour south to Morgantown to see potential future Pirates on display at Monongalia County Ballpark. For Ben Cherington and Company this transformation brought about some pretty challenging decisions concerning prospects; many who hadn’t stepped on a ball field for any meaningful game action in over a year and a half.

Ultimately, this change in the process of assessments and assignments led to several Pirates Prospects continuing their professional careers at levels beyond where they would have in the past; which turns out to be the eventual reason why the Bradenton Marauders Roster had an average of 21.1 years old in 2021, as compared to 22.4 in 2019 or 23.4 in 2018.

One such player, that brought down this average was Dariel Lopez from the Dominican Republic; along with his fellow 19 year-olds Sergio Campana, Jasiah Dixon, Maikol Escotto, Po-Yu Chen and Jared Jones, with 18 year-old Alexander Mojica thrown in for good measure.

In previous years, Lopez and his fellow youngsters would more than likely have found themselves with Bristol in Advanced Rookie Ball, hoping to perform well enough to get a shot in Bradenton at some point during the season; but, not in 2021.

After only appearing in 46 games for the DSL Pirates 2 in 2019 at the age of 17-where he batted .324, with an .889 OPS and 4 homers-Lopez found himself thrown into the fire with the Marauders this past season; a challenge he accepted head on.

Of the youngsters mentioned-who play the field-Lopez had the highest batting average (.258), OPS (.735), number of extra base hits (28) and home run total (10); which was also good enough for 5th best on the team.

Now, in spite of what was mostly a strong introduction to the States, it almost goes without saying that there were bound to be some areas of concern as well due to his age and overall lack of experience; mostly caused by his control of the zone and mobility in the field. Although, once you break it all down and attach some context to it, some of the apprehension should clearly dissipate.

In 435 plate appearances, the young man struck out 108 times; good for a 24.8% K rate. Even though this could be seen as less than ideal, it was also better than anyone his age or younger; plus a couple of older ones-Hudson Head and Jase Bowen. On top of his strike out rate, splits versus LHP and RHP might also cause one to worry due to the significant difference of 1.037 compared to .665.

As far as his defensive is concerned, there truly is no sugarcoating it; even if there is a way of potentially explaining the reason for his overall poor performance. A shortstop by trade ever since he signed for $400,000 back in July of 2018, Lopez has also spent time at second, third and first base; experiencing minimal success at any position other than his 39 innings at first back in 2019. At shortstop he committed 18 errors in each of his two seasons, while boasting a meager .855 fielding percentage. His production was slightly better at third (.867) and somewhat presentable at first (.944).

Listed at 6’1” and 183 pounds it is clear that he has grown beyond that, and into his frame; which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it just cuts down on mobility and position flexibility. On a positive note, it should also allow him to add power as he matures.

Simply look at an exhibition game he played in after being drafted by Gigantes del Ciabo of the Dominican Winter League to see his size and effortless power on full display.

So, what does the future hold for one of the many young guns-or in this case bat-in the Pirates Farm System? Well, as with any prospect, there are obviously no guarantees. However, if I were forced to take a guess, I would have to say that Lopez is destined for an eventual move to first base or a full time designated hitter; maybe in a platoon situation if he can’t get his splits under control. And truthfully, it is almost inevitable-in the short term at least-that he starts out the season on a repeat tour of Bradenton to see if he can build upon his successes, while more importantly, working out any flaws in his game.

Timelines, ETAs, and Rankings are Great, but When Does it Start to Matter for the Pittsburgh Pirates Product?

12-10-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I mean, that’s really what this is all supposed to be about right?

We get lost in the fog of war sometimes covering a baseball franchise. Most people are happy with the talent being brought into the system by Ben Cherington. Most people are even ok with following out a logical timing for progression to declare when the Pirates might be good again.

All that said, those of us that follow this stuff closely, to the point we felt a twinge when Steven Jennings was selected in the Minor League Rule 5 draft the other day, well, it’s starting to get to the point where these things start to slam into each other. Some of those prospects are arguably ready right now, others are very close. The first wave is right there.

What do I mean?

Here’s the list of prospects that should either expand on their cup of coffee or make their debut this year for the Pirates.
Oneil Cruz
Canaan Smith-Njigba
Travis Swaggerty
Jack Suwinski
Diego Castillo
Rodolfo Castro
Cody Bolton
Miguel Yajure
Roansy Contreras
Max Kranick

And I might be being conservative.

Out of those names I’d say 2 of them have star expectations, Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz. That’s not to say nobody beside them can be stars, it’s just to say I don’t have that expectation for them. This isn’t the franchise saving wave but it’s certainly the beginning of a change and more than anything it’s the beginning of seeing results from the rebuild. In fact out of the 10 names there, 5 were brought in by Cherington, 5 were already here.

Point is, for the first time really since Ben Cherington took the job as General Manager for the Pittsburgh Pirates, some of the actual prospects he brought in and others he inherited are poised to actually impact the major league squad.

They won’t all come up and stick. They won’t all complete the next step in their progression, that’s just simple fact, but think about what it means for this ballclub is even 3 or 4 of them do.

All along this process when you’ve heard me and a horde of others keep preaching about stacking prospects this is what it was about. Every time you or someone you know asked why they need another XX position player, or ask where someone is going to play because of another couple guys who play the same position. This is where that vision starts to become clear.

The dichotomy made itself clear last season.

See, last season the Pirates desperately needed Travis Swaggerty or Jared Oliva, the only outfield prospects close to MLB to pan out. Instead, both got hurt, and when Oliva got healthy his batting average didn’t.

That’s it though, there were 2, and 2 alone. The Pirates had to fill the holes with a host of waiver claims and trades for cash before finally lucking into a real live MLB player finding his way to availability in the form of Ben Gamel.

In 2022, the Pirates wisely held onto Mr. Gamel, have Bryan Reynolds and Spring will have to decide who plays the other position and the backup for that matter. For one position they have Oliva, Swaggerty, Smith-Njigba, Suwinski, Alford and Allen. All on the 40-man, and I believe all viable options who could legitimately win the job in Spring.

That’s what stacking prospects looks like. Just outside that is Cal Mitchell and Matt Fraizer one of which easily could have been added to the 40 this year, the other coming off a breakout 2021 with the power stroke. In other words, 2022 will present options, but 2023 will add more to the mix.

That my friends is what this is all about.

It’s one position, but we could easily do the same for the middle infield, the pitching staff, pick your position and we can have a discussion about it, well, save maybe first base. Catching might not be on the doorstep, but they have 3 or 4 legitimate starting caliber catchers working their way into the mix soon too.

Waves and waves of stacked prospects, and folks, I’m here for it.

Nope, it won’t add up to a World Series next year, but this is how you find answers as opposed to hoping for them. This is why you don’t worry about where Liover Peguero will play if Oneil Cruz sticks at short stop. At the end of the day, you’d rather have overflow talent than not enough.

Stuff like that can lead to, gasp, baseball trades to actually add to the MLB roster.

The bats are still ahead of the arms in this build, but some of this overflow could wind up being the remedy. Building from the ground up takes longer but you might just end up with exactly what you want if you take the time to do it.

For fans who like to only look at the MLB product and judge the GM based solely on how that squad does, there is nothing I’m going to say that’s going to convince you he’s done well. Hell, when I get locked into the day to day of covering this team I get frustrated with some of his decisions too. If you look just a level back this season though, we’ll be having different conversations and criticisms though.

In 2022 we might just spend our time and energy asking questions like, “Can you honestly say Swaggerty isn’t better than Alford?” or “Maybe Gamel would be a better bench guy, bring up the kids”. You know, stuff we really couldn’t bother saying last year when out of desperation some of us were calling for Bligh Madris to get a crack if only to see Ka’ai Tom off the roster.

2022 probably won’t amount to much of an improvement when it comes to the record, but it will mark the date when we started really seeing the rebuild get home. Oh, of course the job isn’t done, in fact outside those two who many see as really having star potential this isn’t even the super exciting guys. These aren’t the top picks like Nick Gonzales or Henry Davis, Quinn Priester, but it is a wave that has real talent. A wave that I believe will create measuring sticks for that next wave to have to beat out. And that’s what you want. You want Nick Gonzales to look ready in AAA, and yet not feel you have to pull him up immediately because a Rodolfo Castro is doing well.

That’s when things change, that’s when you know this whole thing is working. When calling these guys up isn’t about manipulation of service time, instead it starts being about injury and real depth, or god forbid, the prospect actually looks like he could be an upgrade over someone else.

All this to say, I’m looking forward to 2022 because this to me is like buying a gold mine that I’m 75% certain has gold in it and finally seeing something shiny within reach.

I certainly don’t have to like and or understand every move this team makes along the way, spoiler alert, I don’t, but I can’t deny that real talent is coming and I’m looking forward to having those conversations with all of you as we watch this thing start to evolve this year.

Top 5 Pirates Prospects: Needing to Make The Leap In 2022

12-9-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

Obviously when Pittsburgh Pirates Fans-but in all likelihood, more specifically the ones that pay attention to and/or care about the Minor Leagues-think about the players that need to make the leap/take a step forward, their focus probably falls directly on prospects like Miguel Yajure, Roansy Contreras, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Jack Suwinski and Diego Castillo due to their recent additions to the 40-Man Roster, along with their proximity to MLB; as it would almost have to be assumed that each of them is likely to start the season in at least Triple-A Indianapolis.

However, for the time being I would like to focus on some prospects who may be a little bit further away, yet could be a part of the second or third wave that keeps the organization from going into full re-build mode again by maintaining a steady flow of players; that would be very similar to the manner in which the Tampa Rays choose to operate.

In no particular order, and honestly not trying to focus on players acquired by Ben Cherington. It just seemed to turn out that way as I combed the statistics of all the Minor League players in the Pirates Farm System, read articles, studied scouting reports and watched some film; randomly jotting down names that stuck out to me.

1) Hudson Head

Originally drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 3rd Round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft from Winston Churchill High School in San Antonio, Texas, and given a $3 million dollar signing bonus-approximately $2.28 million over-slot to steer him away from his commitment to the University of Oklahoma-Head was ultimately acquired by Cherington in the Joe Musgrove Trade after only 32 games and 141 plate appearances in the Arizona Rookie League back in 2019. Still, in this short time with the Padres Organization, at least some of his reported 5 tools were on full display as he batted .283 with a .800 OPS, a 119 wRC+ and collected 11 extra base hits, while starting 26 games in Centerfield at only 18 years of age.

After a year off due to the MiLB shutdown-and of course the change of scenery on January 19th, with a #6 Prospect Ranking on the MLB Pipeline Top 30 to boot-the expectations for and anticipation to see the now 20 year-old were extremely high.

Unfortunately, his season at Low-A Bradenton was somewhat of a overall disappointment as he was unable maintain consistent production for more than a couple of weeks at a time; ending the year with a pedestrian .212 AVG and an excessive 31.7% K rate, but a slightly promising .748 OPS, 113 wRC+ 15.7% and 15 homers.

For Head, his difficulties mainly stemmed from his clear inability to control the zone in what has normally been a pitcher friendly/heavy Florida State League, which will ultimately require quick correction with Sergio Campana, Rodolfo Nolasco and Lonnie White, Jr. potentially breathing down his neck.

2) Brennan Malone

Prior to the 2019 MLB June Amateur Amateur Draft, many experts had Quinn Priester and Brennan Malone listed as the top two prep arms of their class. So, it was really no surprise that when Malone joined the Pirates Organization along with Liover Pegeuro, and now alongside Priester, in exchange for Starling Marte, there was quite a commotion from the prospect junkies in the Pirates Fanbase as his slid into the top 10; even though he only had 8 innings of professional baseball under his belt.

Two years later, he only has a total of 22 innings to his credit; once again because of the shutdown, but also due to a lat injury and struggles with command during the 2021 season.

After only three appearances and 3.2 innings for the Low-A Bradenton Marauders-where he walked five batters and only struck out two Malone did not see the field again until the beginning of August, after nearly 3 months off. Almost immediately his issues with command continued-this time in the newly named FCL-as he allowed six runs on six hits in slightly over six innings.

Eventually, he was able to calm down and get in a groove over his last two starts by allowing only one hit and struck out six across 4 innings; but regrettably, this is where the season ended.

Luckily, for Malone he still has his average to above average four pitch mix; and now, hopefully he has the command as well.

3) Carter Bins

In a system that has regularly been starved for talent behind the dish, anytime Cherington has been able to obtain a catcher, joy almost immediately ensues. Sure the reactions to Bins’ addition were not as boisterous as when he roped the Mets into a three team deal to get Endy Rodriguez, or drafted Henry Davis; but, it was without a doubt still seen as another positive mark on Cherington’s transaction belt.

Bins had started 2021 in High-A with the Everett AquaSox of the Seattle Mariners Farm System, where he performed well. In 40 games and 185 plate appearances, Bins posted a .284 AVG with a .915 OPS and 7 homers; earning a promotion to Double-A Arkansas in the process. After only 11 games, during which he batted .063 with one homer, he then found himself on the Altoona Curve.

Although he did improve marginally by bringing his average up to an even .200 with two extra base hits, in the long run he went back to being known as the defensive catcher with some pop; which is far from a resounding endorsement of future success.

Now, I understand that Henry Davis is almost unanimously thought of as the catcher of rebuild. I just thought it might be nice to have two catchers to potentially rely on if one falters for any stretch of time.

4) Connor Scott

One of the newest prospects under the Ben Cherington Umbrella, Scott is someone who I previously addressed immediately following Jacob Stallings Trade to Miami.

The lone position player acquired in the transaction, Scott, is a former 1st Round Pick (13th overall) out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, who put together a decent campaign this past season in High-A after struggling through 2018 and 2019 between the Gulf Coast League, Low A and High A; with the later being a fairly advanced placement at the time. During his second stint at the level in 2021 Scott batted .276 with a .779 OPS, 10 homers and a wRC+ of 112.

In my eyes I see Scott as a Hudson Head replica, only a year older in MiLB Service Time. A toolsy prospect, with all the pedigree, all the potential and who currently projects as a 4th Outfielder.

5) Tahnaj Thomas/Eddy Yean

Of course they need to have this duo take the leap is baring that either, or both of them are not selected in the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft once it is scheduled.

As we all know by now Thomas was acquired by Pittsburgh in the Erik Gonzalez-Jordan Luplow Trade between the Pirates and the Indians; with Thomas originally being acquired by the Indians via international free agency in December of 2016 as a 17 year old 3rd-baseman/shortstop out of the Bahamas and was signed for $200,000. After recognizing his raw talent the Indians had Thomas begin to focus on pitching. To begin the 2017 season he was sent to the Dominican Summer League to begin his professional baseball career as a pitcher with the DSL Indians. After only 3 games started and 5.1 innings, Thomas was quickly moved up to the Arizona League Indians (Cleveland’s Rookie Level Affiliate). Thomas finished the season with 5.63 ERA, 34K/33BB and a 1.852 WHIP between the two leagues last in 38.1 innings pitched. Because of Thomas’ pitching inexperience and inconsistency he returned to AZL Indians for the 2018 season, where he only appeared in only 8 games, 6 of which he started. He did strike out 27 batters while only walking 10 and lowering his WHIP to 1.169 in 19 innings.

Then came the Neil Huntington guided trade to the Pirates. Upon arriving with he assigned to the Bristol Pirates. It would be his 3rd professional season in a row starting out at the Rookie Level, but this time with a new team/organization; which is exactly when Thomas started to put everything together. The raw talent that had been discovered by the Indians had been polished and was starting to shine. In his first season in a Pirates’ uniform Thomas struck out 59 batters while only walking 14 in 48.1 innings. He posted career bests in both ERA (3.17) and WHIP (1.117). It was a coming out party for the young right-hander from the Bahamas. As the 2019 season came to an end, with the 2020 season then on the horizon, the projected outlook for Thomas was extremely promising due to him rising the prospect rankings thanks to his plus fastball (65 grade), a mid-80’s slider (55 grade) and a new developing changeup.

Then it all kind of fell apart. Thomas’ ERA ballooned up to 5.10, his WHIP rose to 1.582 and his walk rate followed along with them to 5.19 per 9. He was still throwing his fastball in the upper 90’s, touching 100 mph at times; he just seemed to have no clue where it was going.

Now Yean on the other hand is one of Cherington’s Guys; although, if you subscribe to trade rumor talks, he wasn’t the only GM that had called to ask about the now 20 year old from Dominican Republic.

In his first two years in the Nationals Organization, Yean had exhibited marked improvement by cleaning up his delivery in order to showcase his high 90’s fastball (60 grade) and high 80’s slider (55 grade), that both set up perfectly with an above average changeup (55 grade).

After getting mixed results-a 5.38 ERA, a 1.832 WHIP and 32 strike outs to 23 walks through 43.2 innings-in the DSL at only 17, he came back the next year to impress in both the GCL and Short Season A Ball with a combined 3.50 ERA, a 1.165 WHIP and 43 Ks to only 17 walks.

Also, if you ask scouts he continued to impress in the 2019 Fall Instructional League as well. There was no doubt that his stock was on the rise.

Then he came to Pittsburgh; where as with every MiLB player, the 2020 was lost for the then #9 Prospect on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30.

When he finally got to pitch a full season with the Marauders in Low-A, the mixed bag returned; bouncing back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation for the entire season, but not experiencing much success in either role. For the year he posted a 5.29 ERA, a 1.432 WHIP and earned 69Ks versus 39 walks in 66.1 innings.

As you can see the struggles have been real for both Thomes and Yean, but so are the ever present peripherals. The later being what could make them attractive in the Rule 5 Draft. A possibility that we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

Conclusion

Through your perusing of Pirates social media you may have seen some of this players misrepresented, or more fairly mislabeled-albeit not purposefully-as bounce back or potential under the radar prospects to some extent. However, to be a bounce back candidate it seems that you first need to have reached a level of success to rebound to. I guess Carter Bins could loosely fit the bill with his 185 plate appearances in High-A, or the 2019 versions of Thomas and Yean, but I could also argue that each of these is a pretty small sample size. And, it is objectively definitive that none could fall into an under the radar category because of their current or former Top Prospect Rankings, along with how they were acquired.

Maybe, breakthrough might suit them better due to the fact that the one thing they need to do is progress beyond the current obstacles that have been placed in their way by underperformance in direct correlation to both amateur and expert’s expectations.

Yep, breakthrough. That’s what I’m going to use.

Expanded Playoffs in MLB Sounds Like a No Brainer, Right?

12-8-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

More playoff spots, equals more opportunity for teams that can’t compete regularly right? I mean it makes total sense to most of us that this is how it would play out and selfishly as Pirates fans, might just add up to some opportunities that wouldn’t have been there.

Again, it makes sense, but maybe that’s because we aren’t seeing it with the jaded glasses both sides of this bargaining issue will.

On the surface, the owners can feel they’re giving more teams an opportunity to be in the race late into August and September, they bring in a lot more money and of course give the players some too, even if nowhere near what the players deem fair.

Players want paid for the extra work at a higher percentage than what was originally proposed and have concerns about an already exhaustingly long season getting even longer.

First, the proposal has been a 14-team playoff field with the top team in each league getting a bye and the number 2 seed being able to choose their opponent, which is gross.

Now there are some unspoken things here that I ultimately think will cause problems.

First, having more teams get a crack might be an issue for the players. Stick with me here because I’m aware that sentence doesn’t make much sense (sans those jaded glasses). More teams getting a crack could mean less teams feeling the need to try to spend to their ability in an effort to win when realistically .500 could get them in the dance most years. I mean on the surface we assume this is an easy sell because of course more players want a chance to win it all right?

OK, I said you have to be jaded didn’t I?

Well, MLB will counter that thought by saying those first round byes would incentivize spending to try to get it. They feel that’s such an advantage that teams would be climbing over each other trying to make sure they reach it.

Somewhere in between the truth lies, although I’ll be honest, I think the players are probably more correct here. I think we’d see 4-6 teams go after that bye and most of the rest just shoot to get in. Short series lead to randomness to begin with so it might not be advantageous to spend big, finish third and fight the same fight as someone who got in with a rookie laden roster who’s youthful energy could just jump up and let talent take over on occasion.

It’s hard for me to even touch the stupidity of having teams pick their opponent. Maybe I’m just an old guy screaming at clouds here, but to me 162 games should make all the decisions for playoff seeding, if it isn’t accomplishing that, well, why are we playing so many games?

I’m torn on this issue in case you can’t tell. I think expanded playoffs is a band aid for a larger issue in the game, a band aid that is going on a wound smothered in antibiotic ointment and doomed to fall off just as we get to work.

I also think they can’t afford to have MLB expand into the Thanksgiving timeframe. So, to me that proposal leaves out some important things to think about like potentially shortening the season.

As we watch baseball teams wrestle with how to keep arms healthy for a full season, I can’t see how you could add even more and expect the number of pitchers who can’t make it through to not increase. At the very least perhaps a roster expansion is in order here.

Thing is, if I did a poll asking how many people would like to see expanded playoffs in MLB with no caveats or explanation of how it would be implemented, just left it at saying 2 more teams would make it, I bet as many as 80% of fans would support it. When you really start thinking about it though and see those inevitable twists and turns it’s hard to jump on board, even if we’d ultimately like the product.

Here’s the thing though, of all the things being discussed in the CBA negotiations, this effort is the one I can’t see them coming out of this without including. There is simply too much money to be left on the table for both sides here and as we’ve seen time and again, that fact will win out over being good for the game if push comes to shove.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

12-6-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Oh No! Baseball is locked out, what will we ever do for content? Oh my, there’s plenty to discuss from today, and with 132 seasons under our belt as a franchise, we won’t struggle.

Even if this thing eats MLB games, we’ll likely have minor league baseball to discuss and let’s face it most of us can’t stop doing that to comfort ourselves that better days are coming anyhow.

1. A Very Not Huntington Tender Deadline

One thing I took from the Pirates non-tender decisions on Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl and Colin Moran in particular is how very much so this would have never happened if Neal Huntington were still the GM. He’d have held on dearly to the year(s) of control and prayed for performance in the hopes of moving them for more than nothing.

Chad Kuhl wanted to start, the Pirates wanted him in the bullpen, maybe this one came down to simply a Mike Tomlinism, We want volunteers not hostages. Thing is, for all his talent, he just didn’t perform, at least not with consistency, and let’s be honest here, don’t we want this team to start making decisions like this?

Steven Brault has struggled to stay on the mound. When he was good, he was very good, when he was bad, he was disastrous. The funny thing is he’s easily in the same class as Jose Quintana at this point, with the exception of Quintana having actually done really well at some point. Brault has been a borderline starter his entire career here in Pittsburgh, and I feel could have been a nice bullpen piece, but the Pirates weren’t willing to see what this year would bring, and I honestly can’t argue the decision.

Moran just wasn’t good enough, and while I don’t think Yoshi is a locked on upgrade, I don’t think he’s a step backward either. We’ve waited for him to perform defensively, we’ve waited for his power to develop and show up in games. Instead we’ve seen him adjust his approach to hit lefties and turn into the slowest singles hitter I’ve ever seen. I’m ok with feeling we’ve seen enough of that too.

The initial shock of names we recognize being cut loose is worse than it’s bite here in my mind, but the real totality of the story here will be shown when the Pirates finish making this roster. If the Pirates add more to the roster I think we can really see the vision, right now it’s just little more than letting go some guys who didn’t help enough to pretend they’d find it suddenly in 2022.

2. The Danger of a Lock Out

I understand the lockout, I knew it was coming, but as always there are side effects beyond potentially losing baseball games that concerns me.

None bigger than injured players being barred access to team doctors they’d been working with. Someone like Blake Cederlind is recovering from Tommy John, and the recovery is almost more daunting than the procedure itself. One misstep on the road back to competitive pitching and he could be right back to square one. You’d ideally like this process to be under the watchful eye of team doctors and trainers but because of the lockout he’s literally on his own. His recovery goes as he and whomever he finds to help him want it to go.

Ask anyone who’s been through the process and they’ll mostly tell you they didn’t see eye to eye with the training staff throughout the entire path. I’m concerned about prematurely pushing himself, or the alternative, not pushing himself and trusting the arm will hold up when he should. I worry about things like this far more than missing a couple weeks of baseball.

I’m sure he was given a plan to follow, and I’m sure they gave him suggestions of who to see and when, but at the end of the day, he and he alone controls this process as of right now, and that’s something to consider.

It’s not a Pirates problem alone of course, but it’s a nasty side effect of disconnecting your most important assets from your franchise for an extended period of time. Even during the COVID shutdown the teams were in regular contact and plans were at least run past the team before heading firmly into any direction. For young men used to the structure of professional sports, the wild wild west of a lockout could really hurt the progression that a typical off season can provide.

3. Sign a Kid, Become a Parent

One thing most people don’t consider when teams sign 16 year old prospects in the International market is the very real extra responsibility the team inherits. They become the teachers, the guardians, the mentors and have to balance all that with teaching them to become baseball players.

This stuff doesn’t get advertised often, but it happens. We forget both what the team has to tackle when these guys are signed, and we also forget that these kids are asked to do much more than simply learn to play a position, or swing a bat.

They have to learn to eat right and take care of their body. Learn that raw athleticism will get them exactly as far as they currently are and still set aside time to learn how to go from kids to adults while in many cases not even being in the same country as their parents.

I get asked for updates on players like Solomon Maguire and Shalin Polanco pretty regularly because it feels like they’ve been part of the organization for a while, but reality is much of their time is spent still doing what most 16-17 year olds do, learning. The International market is the ultimate test of patience, and things like this are exactly why this team has invested so much in the Dominican Academy.

Good stuff and I’m happy to see the team promote the “life” aspect of what’s going on down there.

4. The More I Think About This Stallings Deal…

The more I think about it, the less I like it. Typically that’s not how these things go for me, I’m usually able to think myself into at least ok, and I’ll readily admit any of the returned players could wind up being a huge plus for this organization.

Here’s where I get hung up. The Pirates took a position that was solidly filled and instead of letting it play out as a perfect bridge to Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez or Abrahan Guttierez they’ve created a hole that isn’t going to close until one of them gets here.

I understand the very real need for arms, and I can’t sit here and tell you acquiring them in this fashion is an awful decision, but I can say we can’t act like the team had no options to bring more in. There is this crazy thing called free agency and with payroll where it is, I’m kinda not interested in hearing they had to trade one of their few answers for more question marks.

Again, this deal might work out well, and Roberto Perez might end up filling the role well, but they’ve created a hole in 2023 that wasn’t scheduled to be there. To me it was an unnecessary step back on a club that can’t really go much further back. Maybe it works out, but one of those prospects better be ready next year.

Same could be said for first base. While I just talked about all the reasons Colin Moran probably wasn’t worth getting angry about, he was still under control for another season and now 2023 will be filled by either another free agent, or a prospect like Mason Martin needs to be ready.

They moved on from two safety nets, and that’s ok if you felt those nets were full of holes, Jacob was not, and that’s where I am on this whole thing.

I get it, I leave room for hoping it winds up being a good and overall positive situation but as it stands right now I feel they’ve built unwarranted pressure into two positions.

5. The Rotation is Deeper, Will it Be Better

Well, let’s start right here, nobody knows for sure obviously, and Ben Cherington says he’s not done adding to it, so there’s that.

As we sit here right now it’s hard to see the rotation being anything other than Quintana, Thompson, Keller, Wilson and Brubaker. I know some of you want Contreras or Yajure but even if the CBA makes it a painless decision to bring either up, I think it would be prudent to give them a bit of time in AAA.

I have to be honest, those five look a hell of a lot better than last year already. Quintana is obviously a reclamation project, Thompson and Wilson are essentially the same player at different ages. Both have shown enough in MLB to believe there’s more there. Keller is a step behind both of those, with arguably more pedigree and firmly planted in a show me year. Brubaker showed enough last year before his arm fell off to believe he has more to give.

I like that as a starting point, and I like it a lot more than the mix they entered last year with. That’s about as far as I’ll take it though, I like the look a little better.

I also like the backing better. Having Roansy Contreras, Max Kranick, Miguel Yajure, Dillon Peters, Cody Bolton and Wil Crowe all right there too is certainly better than what they started with last year. Some of these could become bullpen options, and I’m sure some of them simply won’t make the decision hard, but if you believe in a culture of competition you kinda have to have competition don’t you?

I don’t think there is enough here to pretend this unit is going to spell a tremendously improved record, but I do think there’s enough here to potentially head into 2023 feeling like the rotation isn’t devoid of answers. The prospect system taking a step forward is great, it’s the goal of any rebuild, but when it comes to the fans starting to believe things are trending in the right direction at some point tangible evidence has to start reaching MLB, and I believe there will be more than a few instances of that in 2022, not least of which will be the mound.

Checking In On Cherington’s Build

Anyone that is currently-or has ever been-a homeowner can most assuredly empathize with the fact that at some point repairs will need to be made, items will need to be replaced and renovations/remodeling will ultimately be undertaken. Even if your house is initially turn-key, these types of projects will eventually take place if you live there long enough. It is inevitable. It is also inevitable that some of these undertakings will become more invasive and possibly last longer than expected.

At that point you will stand back, evaluate the situation and make a plan of attack as to how to proceed next. With Major League Baseball and it’s owners having locked out it’s players at 12:01 AM on December 2nd, putting a halt to any Big League transactions, now feels like the perfect to look at Ben Cherington and Company’s current rebuild in the same manner.

Since arriving in Pittsburgh in November of 2019 Cherington has overhauled nearly the entire MLB Roster and Coaching Staff, as well as the Baseball Operations Department in both the Majors and Minors; all while stocking the Farm System from top to bottom, which has become universally ranked within the Top 5. As far as the 40-Man Roster is concerned, the Pirates only have 14 players left who were in the organization before Ben showed up, and one lone staff member in Bullpen Coach Justin Meccage.

If they are on the roster, or in the system, Cherington wants them here; at least for now. If they are part of the staff, front office or development department, the same can be assumed.

In the past week, we as Pirates Fans have learned that no one is safe from being a part of Cherington’s larger plan as Jacob Stallings was traded to the Marlin’s; and maybe less surprisingly that veteran pitchers Chad Kuhl and Steve Brault were given their walking papers.

Left are the two untouchables-Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds. But, even there long term future in Pittsburgh is not set in stone. Reynolds has four arbitration years, including the current one, before he is no longer under team control; which to me means, at most he is here through 2024 because there is no way anyone in their right mind is letting a player of his caliber walk for free. That’s why an extension is so important, once again to me.

With Ke’Bryan, there is a little bit more time as he doesn’t become arbitration eligible until 2024; yet, without an extension that has him on the team for only an additional year without a long-term deal.

Nevertheless, until the new CBA gets signed, any extension talks are on hold; as are any possible changes that could happen to the 40-Man, so I only makes sense to focus on the team as it is currently constructed-and contracted.

After the flurry of moves so far this off-season the same number of positions are locked down as there were in the final game of 2021. Reynolds still sits in Centerfield, Hayes is at Third, Yoshi Tsutsugo has replaced Colin Moran at First and Roberto Perez, rather than Stallings, is behind the plate. Obviously you could throw in Ben Gamel in left and Kevin Newman at Shortstop due to their contract tenders; however, one thing you can’t do is point to any area of overwhelming improvement. At Second Cole Tucker is penciled in very lightly, while Anthony Alford and Greg Allen have the inside track at the Right Field gig. Also, not overwhelming.

When you move to the mound, it is a cluster of as many as 11 pitchers who will go into Spring Training with at minimum an outside shot of making the Open Day Rotation; and not a proven one in the bunch. The bullpen, well, it’s a mess outside of David Bednar. There’s no kinder way to put it.

Cherington has said that he still wants to add a starter, so there’s that. Still, I wouldn’t look too far beyond another Jose Quintana prove you still have something left in the tank type of deal.

Sure, you can point to Roansy Contreras or Miguel Yajure as contributing in the upcoming season on the bump, along with Oneil Cruz, and hopefully one of the many outfielders with the bat; although no one can realistically predict just how much to expect.

Coming off a 101 loss season, there were expectations of some immediate improvement. How could there not be? Yet, as the off-season quickly approaches Christmas-with a potential rush to solidify the roster following the CBA being settled-I can’t lie; I am more than a little bit disappointed. And, I can’t see much happening between now and March 31st.

I understand the project is far from done, but if it were me, finishing up something around the house, I would at least be questioning how much longer it’s going to take.

To the Fans. Well, We’ll See Won’t We?

12-4-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Major League Baseball is in a Lockout.

I know, breaking news right? The first instance I can find of Craig or I telling you this was coming dates all the way back to December of 2019. We literally called a lockout coming as opposed to a more generic work stoppage.

There’s a reason, it was painfully obvious.

For decades now, the owners played fast and loose with ignoring the economic realities of the game. The players have ignored the realities of how young players have fared in the game, and finally neither side has enough left to offer.

The players have no more to give on young players, the owners can’t control the growing chasm between the Mega and Mid markets, let alone small.

Here we are.

Rob Manfred penned a letter to the fans explaining why they had to do this. Read it if you like, or simply take my synopsis if you prefer.

I take issue with pretending they had to do this, but I do think as I said, the two sides are so far apart and made such little progress it was either going to be this way or a strike was coming. In other words, you can pick a bad guy in this situation if you like, but someone was going to stop the process to force negotiations to get serious. Now or later, this was happening. Now, I could argue since even a rube like me knew this was coming for over two years, maybe they could have talked like adults and made some progress toward something, or hey here’s an idea, maybe someone could have actually put forward an idea that moved the process forward.

Instead, both focused on trying to score points. Looks a lot like the US Congress if I’m honest. Propose a bill with one thing everyone agrees with built in, and 3 or 4 hundred things one side absolutely considers to be a show stopper, then sell to the public that the other side doesn’t support that one thing everyone likes.

All of you know I’m a huge proponent of a salary cap system. That comes with a floor, increased revenue sharing, a cap and of course real accountability. Simple math says that adds close to 500 million to the pool of money players get even if it was just the weak wristed version the owners put forward with an 80 million dollar gap from 100 million to 180 million.

Make it more like other leagues that only have a spread of 20-30 million and they get even more.

That said, I’ve never believed that would come without pain. I’ve seen it in the NHL, NFL and NBA, and I don’t see any players complaining they aren’t making enough in those leagues.

I hate going back to politics, but let’s face facts, it’s hard to discuss labor vs owners without things going there. Watching people struggle to justify their political stances on unions while acknowledging the baseball union is being a bit unreasonable is one of my favorite pastimes. In any subject, when you paint yourself into a corner by pre choosing winners and losers, right or wrong, you tend to find yourself at the very least conflicted.

This isn’t the Autoworkers union here folks. We’re not talking about anyone being poor (well, once they actually fight through MiLB, which also needs dealt with). We’re talking about a league where some teams have local TV contracts worth half a Billion dollars, and some teams that have deals worth 50 million. Some teams that control 100% of parking revenue, some that have zero (you’re Buccos are one of those).

It would be like expecting Suzuki and Mercedes Benz to compete directly and believing all that separated them was Suzuki’s willingness to spend more money on workers, parts, advertising and every other facet of business. Thing is, they aren’t expected to compete. Suzuki doesn’t need to beat Mercedes head to head to make enough sales to have a nice business. In a sports league, that kinda doesn’t work does it? At some point Suzuki is expected to take on the big boys if we’re talking fandom as opposed to driving to work.

That said, guys like Bob Nutting don’t do everything they could do. He doesn’t spend as much as he should, and while he’s spending enough of the revenue sharing dollars to never have a successful grievance charge stick, there are things he could do to pump more money into the team.

For instance, while no owners use their personal wealth to acquire players, he could use some of his to acquire property and parking near the ballpark. It’s not like real estate investment is foreign to him.

Again, baseball has created an imbalanced mess, but some owners have done more to deal with it. I always say, hate Bob Nutting if you like, but hate him for the right reasons. Even the “fix” I just suggested would only make them maybe Milwaukee.

Bottom line, neither side wants to miss games, and I don’t see transformative change coming, with one caveat. The loudest proponents of a salary cap are the Yankees and Red Sox this time, and that more than any other singular fact should have the union thinking twice about pushing the envelope.

Expect more hyperbole before reason starts to creep in. In fact if you really want to know when progress is being made, listen for silence from both sides. It’s usually a sign they’re actually getting somewhere instead of trying to get the public to side with them.