The MLB Off-Season Has Been Put On Hold

Well, after over a year of talking about it, the situation many of us were dreading as baseball fans has finally come to fruition. Following a riveting seven minute meeting yesterday between MLB and the MLBPA, the owners unanimously voted to institute a lockout of players beginning at 12:01 EST today, December 2nd.

Almost immediately shots were fired from each side of the aisle as MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred and the MLBPA (aka Tony Clark) released statements to explain how negotiations reached this point, why it is the other side’s fault and that we the fans deserve better.

Of course the fans also did their part by arguing against each other using the often used phrase of millionaires versus billionaires, clamoring for owners to open the books, bashing players by pointing out that they get paid more than many Americans to play a game, calling for a salary floor, carrying the flag for a salary cap-while vehemently explaining to detractors that it comes with both a cap and a floor-and most importantly, picking a side.

This compulsion to be in the right-or in the very least think we are-reminds me of what Iron Man implied, when he spoke to Captain America-along with rest of the Avengers at times-concerning the Sokovia Accords throughout Civil War…there are no sides.

For years the MLBPA has protected the few under the guise of fair, and in some ways equal opportunity for all; whereas MLB, but more specifically it’s owners have held onto their books tighter than an older sister clutches her diary to keep her nosey little brother from reading it.

Neither camp is fully in the right, though each will try to prove that they are in the coming days and weeks; but hopefully not months, because at that point only one group truly suffers. The Fans.

Nevertheless, I am fully prepared for this; actually taking steps over the past few years without actually realizing it to a certain extent.

When my older two children were little, PNC Park became practically a monthly excursion. Many times we were accompanied by extended family and friends. However, in recent years they have started to join me on my regular trips to every Minor League ballpark near and far. From Altoona to Erie, Morgantown to Indianapolis, Columbus to Bradenton and everywhere in between.

We are a baseball family. So much so that my daughter and two sons have taken to pulling up a seat as I stream games from MiLB.TV on my phone, laptop or television. Of course we usually focus on games involving the Pittsburgh Pirates Affiliates, but we have also been known to watch any random game depending on when certain top prospects from any MLB organization are involved.

For them baseball is so much more than what takes place on the Major League landscape. My son’s favorite ball player is Jared Oliva, who has only 56 Big League at bats under his belt. My daughter collects decorative baseballs from every ballpark we visit. Her brothers collect miniature bats, with their most prized possession among them being the one signed by every member of the Washington Wild Things. Yeah, we like Independent League Baseball as well.

So, as you occupy your time reading everything you can on the current labor dispute, arguing with each other on social media and trying to demonstrate why MLB and it’s owners or the MLBPA are just in their cause. I’ll be right here with my family, making plans for which games we are going to attend this summer.

Sure I want Major League Baseball to come back; I write for a Pittsburgh Pirates inspired blog and have a weekly podcast. Still, this ongoing labor dispute won’t stop me-and my family-from enjoying something we all love…Baseball.

Make Sense of All These Moves!

12-1-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It was late last night when I received a text from my producer of my podcast the Pirates Fan Forum. Eddie Provident is a guy who loves all Pittsburgh sports but he’s also young and had all but given up hope on the Pirates after 2016, well, until he started listening to me and Jim Stamm do our show.

Eddie is part of the audience here folks. Someone that wants to believe in what’s happening, finds a resource who isn’t trying to blow smoke up his butt and now watching what’s happened in the past couple days, well, let’s just say want help understanding what in the actual hell the Pirates are doing here. Maybe you identify with him, maybe you think he’s a doubting Thomas, either way, everyone could use some clarification.

That resource doesn’t have to be me or Craig, or anyone in particular, the point is fans want to believe things are still going in the right direction, but can’t come to grips with how moving out players at this point who weren’t sore spots and bringing in yet more prospects could possibly be seen as progress.

Not an easy ask Eddie.

First of all, I can’t say I’m completely sold on the path Ben Cherington took here. I’d have done things much differently, but the title of Co-Editor for a Pirates Blog doesn’t afford me the privilege. And this site, our shows, have never been about making everything they do seem smart.

That doesn’t mean I can’t take a swing at explaining it and letting Eddie and all of you form your own opinion. So let’s take a swing at understanding, which again isn’t the same as endorsing. I’ll take them choice by choice.

Trading Jacob Stallings & Adding Roberto Perez

I wrote about this yesterday so I’ll try not to be too repetitive here. I have to gang these together, because it’s clear the Pirates had the Perez deal just about wrapped up before they pulled the trigger on the Stallings deal.

Seen as a complete work, they basically downgraded the catching position at least from the expected offense side of things and perhaps durability, in exchange for an almost certain lock for the rotation and a couple prospects.

Again, I’d argue Stallings was more important than his numbers and as I wrote Monday the emotional leader of this club. Of course nobody knows how all these prospects will turn out, but it’s safe to say if Perez stays healthy (not a given with his history) and Thompson pitches well as his FIP, WHIP and ERA suggest he should, it’s probably a net positive even without them doing a damn thing.

I still wouldn’t have done it, to me they pay more for the catching position now, for an obvious downgrade albeit not drastic, and brought in another work in progress starter. Work in progress, reclamation project, Quad A, were not things I wanted in a rotation piece and I’d have preferred seeing them spend some money bringing in a free agent pitcher in the 6-8 million dollar range to sure things up.

Now, you know me, I’m not going to leave it there and avoid trying to explain the thinking here at all.

The system as it stands, and I’ve told you this before, is trending toward the position players beating the arms to the Bigs. Sure we have youngsters getting there like Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure, Cody Bolton and everyone else we saw tried out last season, but the Pirates can’t ignore that the real bulk of the starting pitching this team is anticipating are just digesting their High A and Low A seasons.

So a move to bring in another is something that directly speaks to that need. In order to not waste players like Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and take your pick beyond that with guys like Nick Gonzales, the Pirates can’t just have no pitching. Moves like this address that need to bridge the gap.

See we all have been thinking of this as who’s bridging the gap to Henry Davis now, but the Pirates are worried about who’s bridging the pitching gap to Priester and Burrows types.

I’ll leave it there, that gives you enough to think your way through this one, but we shouldn’t provide the Pirates cover here, it’s not like there aren’t other ways they could acquire pitching for now.

Steven Brault & Chad Kuhl

Man I’d love to tell you this was about money, it’d make my life a whole lot easier to just blame Nutting. Instead, I’ll simply point to both of their career paths and ask, how much more time did you really want to pretend there was more in there? Neither have been able to stay healthy, neither have been consistent, and more than anything, I can’t argue either were a lock to beat out any of the options here.

The fact the Pirates couldn’t find anyone to give them so much as a lottery ticket for either should speak volumes here.

Part of the issue here is stubbornness in my mind. For years fans and scouts alike have considered both to be better options as bullpen arms but the Pirates have never taken the step to just make those moves more than temporary. Part of that has been a near total lack of options, but part of it was the very real sample size efforts both have provided over the years. Their careers are like my golf game, I might shoot a 90 but man those two shots on the 6th hole are enough to believe I’ve got a tour win in me. Well, ok I’ve never been that delusional but you get the picture.

If you want to argue they should have kept either, I get it, this team has so little veteran presence on the mound I can dig it, but I don’t think they’d have beaten out Quintana or Thompson, those guys are virtual locks as we sit here today. Bryse Wilson you have to believe is in there. This has to be the show me year for Keller, and Brubaker showed enough before his arm died that you have to see what he has.

From there, be honest with yourself, wouldn’t you rather watch Kranick, Contreras, Yajure, Peters, and maybe even Bolton before you watched Kuhl or Brault start another game?

Are we just mad because they cut names we recognize here?

Colin Moran & Yoshi Tsutsugo

This one I struggle with.

Yoshi, yeah that’s fine, even if Craig has me almost 100% convinced this won’t turn out well. I still like the signing if only because they need power and I’ll hope enough pitchers and his good eye at the plate lead to on base opportunities and running into one more often than Colin did.

Colin is slow, like real slow. He’s what I call a base clogger, and it hurt having him in the middle of the lineup swinging like a singles hitter rather than a power threat. I can’t even tell you how many times he walked to leadoff an inning and I just sighed knowing he wasn’t going to score unless a whole lot went right.

Now, I’d have still kept him around if only because the power is in there, and this team doesn’t have much of it. He’s not as we sit here good enough to be a “good” DH, but he’s better than the options I see internally so I’m at least a little confused as to what they’re thinking here.

It could be as simple as he was going to get too much in arbitration (4 Million) for what they felt he’d contribute, but I can’t sit here and tell you there aren’t other guys I’d rather move on from. As with Kuhl and Brault, let’s not ignore they were unable to trade him, and it’s very safe to assume they weren’t asking for much since releasing them was clearly on the horizon.

Overall, the position is at least no worse off, and potentially more productive. I guess that’s a nice way of saying he \has had ample opportunity to show his first round pedigree was real.

Overall

They clearly aren’t done here, but the thing I simply have to point out here is you should be encouraged that they aren’t sitting on a 101 loss team and doing the same thing. I can argue these moves won’t impact that much, but I can’t argue they’re simply trotting out the same mix of players hoping for different results.

I find some of these moves confusing based on Ben Cherington’s assertion that this team will be competitive again sooner than some think. Most of these moves are zero sum gains at least on paper so he either really believes in his development system or he’s flatly just saying things right now with no frame of reference. In other words, maybe he’s directly referring to someone saying the team wouldn’t compete before 2028 and he thinks he can beat that, as opposed to the common thought that 2023/2024 should be on the table.

These moves don’t feel like the next couple seasons are in play. Yoshi is a one year deal, Perez is a one year deal. Their assumed replacements are Mason Martin who’s obviously still a question mark if he survives the Rule 5 draft, and the combination of Abarahan Gutierrez, Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are all still at least a stretch to consider part of the mix in 2023.

Now, Colin was only here 2 more seasons regardless, Stallings for 4, I’d have to say all of this stuff didn’t really change the timeline much if at all. What it’s really potentially altered is how 2022 looks and fan perception of how the rise to competitive should look. Most didn’t factor in a possible further slide before the upward trend started, and while I can’t tell you well run teams should listen to what fans want to see when building a roster, I can say this team has largely ignored that facet for decades and it hasn’t worked out well has it?

From the time Cherington was hired he openly stated there were players here who would be contributors on a winning ball club, he’s running out of those players at this point. If he was truthful then I’d have to say an extension is coming for someone. Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Chris Stratton, Sam Howard and Nick Mears represent those who remain from Cherington’s statement. Looks like 2 or 3 shots at truthfulness to me.

Yes, Eddie, there is still a plan. And no, I still can’t tell you if it’ll work. I also can’t say it’s how I’d have approached it, but much like driving in Pittsburgh, there are multiple ways to get where you’re going, some just aren’t a fun drive.

Pirates Add Roberto Perez

11-30-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The worst kept secret in the Pittsburgh Pirates to do list was to find an MLB catcher to replace the surprising trade of Jacob Stallings. Today they found their man, Roberto Perez on a one year deal worth 5 million dollars.

He’s a career 7.5 WAR player but 2019 was really his best year and it isn’t close. He played in 119 games and hit 24 homeruns for an OPS of .774. Every other season he hasn’t topped 73 games, essentially a backup role for the Cleveland Guardians, who chose not to pick up his 7 Million dollar option this season and enabling the Pirates to pick him up.

Considered to be a defensive dynamo he’s been as bad with the bat as he’s been good with the glove. 2019 is such an outlier it’s almost hard to take it seriously.

The Pirates certainly can’t claim this move made them younger at the position, Perez is a 33 year old (By season’s start) but it’s fair to say he doesn’t have a starter’s mileage on him either. A career .206 average with an under .300 OBP the real upside with Perez is his glove evidenced by his two seasons as a starter 2019 and 2020 being Gold Glove winners.

So what can we expect? Well, solid defense. I’d be a fool to sit here and tell you he’s going to repeat his 2019 performance again but once you’ve seen the power in there it’s hard to shake the possibility he can find it again. Basically, take the win that the Pirates found a way to replace the defense they just moved, with a trusted glove who knows how to help develop pitchers.

I’d also say, the return for Jacob Stallings has to be viewed with this addition in mind, and here’s why. This can’t be characterized as a salary dump because they’re literally paying an inferior player more than Jacob would have received. So I’d have to assume this means Ben Cherington got whatever he was targeting from Miami.

That doesn’t make me like it any better, but perhaps reinforces that this wasn’t a Nutting move, it was a Cherington deal, so the return is on him. If it works and the Bucs secured some pieces that work out while bringing in a bridge to whoever wins the Pirates system catching race, great. If it doesn’t they literally traded a loaf of bread for a week old loaf and paid for the pleasure.

We shall see, but at least we won’t enter the darkness of this potential lock out wondering if the Pirates plan to use a cardboard cutout behind the dish.

More to come…

Two Guys Talking Stallings Trade

11-30-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Joe Boyd – Whew, okay.  First things first.. We’ve done articles on Stallings a few times already.  So, if you’re new here, 1) Welcome! And 2) check out our Stallings piece from a few weeks ago and from a few months ago.  

If you go back and check those out, you’ll see that I flip-flopped.  In June, I was all for blowing this thing up and trading Stallings.  But after the season ended and we looked to 2022, I was hoping to keep the gold glover w/ control around to mentor Henry Davis and to benefit the pitching staff with his defensive prowess and leadership.  Justin disagreed.  Let’s see how he feels about this return!

The return:  

RHP Zach Thompson — $10.68M SV

Thompson was drafted by the the White Sox in the 5th round of the 2014 draft.  He was released in 2020 and signed a minor league deal with the Marlins.  Last season, he pitched quite well.  He doesn’t have electric stuff for a behemoth (6’7 230lbs), but he had decent year in Miami, posting 1.3 WAR.  He is, however, 28 years old but he still has 6 full years of control.  

For the purposes of our articles, we utilize ZiPS/STEAMER whenever possible.  He’s projected 0.4 WAR next year and if you extrapolate that and include an age factor, I come up with  1.6 WAR over the course of his controllable years in Pittsburgh.  We have to account for his salary, so that’s where the $10.68 Surplus Value comes in.  Thompson produced 1.3 WAR last year, which is almost what we are estimating he will accrue over the next 6 seasons, so a safe bet would be to bump that estimate.  I think a realistic answer would be to move that to 0.8 WAR which bumps our Surplus Value for Thompson to $20.72M.  If this is where Cherington evaluated Thompson to be at, then the Pirates ‘win’ the trade. 

OF Connor Scott — 40+ FV ($4M) — ETA: 2022

Longenhagen’s report on Scott: “Scott shares some frame and swing components with fellow Plant High School alum Kyle Tucker. He has a similar low-ball proclivity and has shown glimpses of all-fields power but doesn’t have quite as good of feel for the barrel toward the top of the strike zone. Well, that flaw may have been more thoroughly exposed in the fall and during 2021 spring training.

Conversely, Scott has responded to two pretty bold promotions. The first was during his first pro summer, when Miami promoted him and other recent prep draftees to Low-A for the end of the season. Scott was bad there at the end of 2018, but made adjustments and posted a league-average statline as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League the following year, which is impressive. He kept his head above water at Hi-A late in 2019, too, though he did swing and miss much more there. How he handles topside velo is going to be huge because that pitch is so common in the big leagues now. Scott has a chance to be a table-setting center fielder if he can get on top of those letter-high heaters.”

So Scott, a former first round selection, appears to be a light hitting, defensive-first Center Fielder that is more of an old-school leadoff hitter.

RHP Kyle Nicolas — 40+ FV ($3M) — ETA: 2024

From Longenhagen: “​​The power-armed Nicolas took a big step forward on the 2019 Cape, sitting in the mid-90s, hitting 99, and flashing a plus, mid-80s slider. The effort in his delivery and the fact that Nicolas spent most of his sophomore year and summer on the Cape in the bullpen fueled pretty consistent relief projection, but I think Nicolas is an average athlete with a sturdy, workhorse build, and was pitching with an arm action that looks relatively easy to clean up. The 2020 version of Nicolas, when he made four starts before the pandemic ended the college season, indeed looks like a reliever but his arm action’s length seems to lead to his scattershot fastball. I don’t expect him to ever have pinpoint command, but with the way his heater works, I don’t think he needs to. What is harder to identify is his ultimate repertoire outlook. Nicolas threw about 85% fastballs in 2020. His slider, which is really hard and has back foot utility against lefties, could be plus but he’ll need a third pitch to start. I think the fastball and slider have really strong playability and that Nicolas could end up in a leveraged relief role just through a more consistent release.”  

Unsurprisingly, a power arm from the Cape league.  He was ranked as the #20 prospect in the Miami system at the mid-season reevaluation on Fangraphs. 

As our Friend @AlexJStumpf tweeted: 

If you add up that value, you’re pretty far south of the SV for Stallings.  But if Thompson’s projections correct, it looks like a win in the Surplus Value method.  But is the big piece really a player that was released by the White Sox and could’ve been had for nothing? 

JV — This is where the art and science of evaluating a trade, using this method anyway, provides a lesson. As a fan we want to see Cherington “win” a trade and we’d like to see him win as many as possible. The range of monetary value exchanged here is approximately 18-28 million. But we still need to look for context, Joe. Does this return show the upside and helium we are used to seeing? Or hope to see? I can’t get there. Thompson is more of a floor player, likely the best value he could have gotten from the major league level, I’ll give him that. This is why we lean to deals that are built stocking the minors. 

I do like Kyle Nicolas, specifically. The fastball/slider combo looks legit and if he develops that curveball and changeup the kid has a shot at staying in the rotation.  He had better results in AA then A+ showing he was able to apply what they implemented in A+, that’s a great sign and something I imagine that Cheringon’s scouts talked about. But he simply is not enough to carry the trade. 

Final Thoughts 

JB — I like writing these articles because I get to say what I would/would not accept in a trade for a Pirates player.  We created packages to trade Stallings in the past, I would’ve accepted a deal from the Braves for Michael Harris + other prospects.  I came up with a deal with the Astros that would be hard to pass up (but I ultimately would have preferred to keep Stallings), and Justin has come up with a couple good ones with the Yankees.  I can say that I would not have made this deal with the Marlins.  The Pirates were in no way obligated to move Stallings, so only a ‘godfather’ deal would work for me, and this one is not it.  The Pirates are left with a bare cupboard at the catcher position and all we have to show for it is a reclamation project and a few AAAA prospects.  That might be a bit harsh, but I’m just not satisfied that this was an ‘obvious’ move.  

I’m not going to sugarcoat anything, and I had no belief that the 2022 Pirates were going to compete.  But I was hoping that they would start to turn a corner and push towards getting to a position of being competitive in the 2023-2024 range.  I think that a leader like Jacob Stallings makes your pitchers and your young catchers better.  Pittsburgh got worse today. 

JV – Before I get too lost in my closing thoughts I’d like to give Joe a shoutout here, he did the heavy lifting before I even got home from work today and it’s solid stuff!

Joe, I’ll go one further and say I’m disappointed in the trade even surprised BC pulled the trigger. Hey, even with hindsight I was still on board with moving Stallings, But the return needed to outweigh the benefits of what Stallings would have brought to the table for this pitching staff over the next 1-2 years. Joe, we mentioned that in both pieces that we wrote on Stallings and it was just as true today as it was in July. Maybe we’re wrong here, maybe we can’t see the forest from the trees. Perhaps both Nicolas and Scott go off and we’re reading this in two years talking about what fools we were. But today this doesn’t taste good at all. 

We aren’t here to be cheerleaders for Mr. Cherington, we are here to take an objective look at these values, perhaps even a cold approach, and evaluate possible trades and the actual returns from a monetary approach and today I feel like the cashier shorted me on my change and the manager just isn’t listening. 

Jacob Stallings Is On The Move

11-29-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement on Twitter)

A little over three weeks ago Jacob Stallings was announced as the first Pirates Gold Glove Catcher since Mike LaValliere, all the way back in 1987. Today he is one of the newest members of the Miami Marlins.

Isn’t it crazy to think about how quickly things can change? Honestly I am still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that it actually happened.

Even when the rumors started to pick up steam earlier on in the day I wasn’t sure Ben Cherington would actually pull the trigger, unless he was totally blown away by the offer. Ultimately, I guess he was by the return of pitchers Zach Thompson and Kyle Nicolas, along with outfielder Connor Scott from the Marlins.

Once a burgeoning star within the the Chicago White Sox System, Zach Thompson had been relegated to the bullpen before the team eventually moved on from him in the fall of 2020. Signed to a Minor League Deal by Miami a short time later, Thompson found himself in the Marlins starting rotation mix at the beginning of June.

Over the next few months he would make 13 starts before the bullpen came calling again. However, this time it had nothing to do with performance as he posted a 3.16 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 62.2 inning of work. Thompson would go onto make 13 additional appearances on the season-once as an opener for his 14th start-finishing the year with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and a 3.69 FIP; which shows his strong performance wasn’t based on any sort of luck.

With the Pirates rotation as it currently stands the 6’7” 28 year old could be easily projected to slot in the top 5 or 6 come Opening Day.

As for the other two acquisitions, they are clearly still prospects. Kyle Nicolas-Ranked 16th for the Marlins and now 24th for the Pirates according to MLB Pipeline-and Connor Scott-Ranked 23rd in Miami and Not Ranked in Pittsburgh-both come with upside, but are question marks as most players that have only reached Double-A and High-A usually are.

Nicolas was drafted 61st overall in Comp Round B of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft, so he has a limited portfolio thanks to the cancelled 2020 Minor League season; yet it’s a pretty successful one as the Ball State product transitioned from High-A Beloit to Double-A Pensacola, and actually improved along the way in certain areas. For the Snappers (now the Sky Carp) Nicolas had a 5.28 ERA and a 1.358 WHIP. After joining the Blue Wahoos at the end of July his ERA fell to 2.52 and his WHIP dropped 1.220. Unfortunately, his K/9 also dipped from 13.0 to 11.4 and his BB/9 raised from 3.6 to 5.7, so it wasn’t all good news. However, with plus fastball (70 grade) that sits in the mid-90’s and can touch 100 mph, an above average (55 grade) slider with a strong break and an average curve (50 grade), the potential is there to become another strong arm in the Altoona Curve rotation in 2022.

The lone position player, Scott, is a former 1st Round Pick (13th overall) out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, who put together a decent campaign this past season in High-A after struggling through 2018 and 2019 between the Gulf Coast League, Low A and High A; with the later being a fairly advanced placement at the time. During his second stint at the level in 2021 Scott batted .276 with a .779 OPS, 10 homers and a wRC+ of 112.

Due it being a crucial 2022 season for Scott, as he is now 22 and will be Rule 5 eligible following the upcoming year, it is likely that he also fits in with the Curve; still having a lot to prove based on his first round pedigree.

Now, before you get the idea that I am trying to sell you on this trade, take a breath for a second. I don’t even know if I like it myself at the moment. I am processing it just the same as you, as I look through the stats and scouting reports, while pointing some of the positives and negatives that I discovered along the way; with one real negative that I haven’t even touched on yet. The Pittsburgh Pirates don’t have a catcher on their 40-Man Roster.

Sure, many have been quick to point out that a veteran catcher will be signed-one actually has to be-or that Henry Davis could arrive as early as 2023. But, what if he doesn’t? What if he has a setback with his performance, or God forbid another injury? What happens then? What is the timeline for the rebuild at that point, or actually now for that matter?

In Ben we are supposed to trust, right?

This trade, and many of the other moves that have happened so far this off-season, don’t have me completely doubting the process. But, obviously I have some questions.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-29-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Hope everyone had a very Happy Thanksgiving being with family and friends, I for one feel like I start every family function with an impromptu half hour Pirates Q&A. So, in the spirit of coming together and trying like hell to have good conversations let’s dig in to today’s Five Thoughts.

1. Supporting the GM Doesn’t Mean You Can’t Question Him

I’m quite happy with the job Ben Cherington has done since coming on board. He’s added top end talent by trade of less than stellar pieces, by drafting in a bold manner to acquire top end prospects in multiple rounds, and rebuilding the system, well, it’s kinda the heart of a rebuild folks.

So, if and when someone wants to criticize that the Pirates aren’t active in the free agent market I get a little irritated that some see it as changing the words of Jesus in the Bible. There are so many ways to do this, it’s silly to even suggest anyone’s idea of the “right” thing to do is wrong on it’s face.

Here’s the thing, I know exactly why it’s this way.

Believers in the church of Cherington seem to have taken as gospel a never spoken truth. There is an ever growing pile of cash being set aside, built from every dollar not spent on the payroll to the team’s budget. So let’s say in 2021 they had an internal budget of 100 million (just go with it, this isn’t a real example) well they’d set aside like 45 million to be used when the team is “ready” to compete.

He’s never said this.

Nobody on the team has ever said this.

Nobody in management has ever said this.

I’ll give you it’s been assumed. I’ll give you other teams do it. I’ll even give you they should do this. But I can’t give you that it’s fact.

What has been said is he’s been assured when the time is right, the money will be there. Now, I’m not here to tell you this isn’t happening in the background, but I am here to tell you it’s never been stated, therefore it isn’t a fact you should use to brow beat fans who want to see some investment now.

Think of it this way, there are fans who don’t believe you can just suddenly spend and build a cohesive unit that pulls off the long jump to competitive with a bunch of high end rookies and 50 million dollars in free agent adds overnight. Some of them think adding pieces along the way both makes the team easier to root for on the way, and provides a measuring stick that prospects have to beat to earn a spot.

That’s ok folks. A team can be built this way too, so why run cover for the Pirates, Bob Nutting and Ben Cherington when, first, they didn’t ask you to, and furthermore the very premise it’s based on isn’t real?

As far as I’m aware, Ben Cherington is a human, consequently he is fallible. Speak your minds, and have conversations without fear of offending a deity folks. He’s just a guy, doing a job. I’d argue he’s doing a very good job, but the steps forward from here aren’t scripted, and they certainly aren’t right vs wrong.

If you’re disappointed, that’s ok. If you believe they are working under a larger plan, that’s ok too, but please don’t shut down conversation of these things because you magically know intimately what they’re doing, you don’t. I don’t, nobody but Ben Cherington and who he’s chosen to share it with have a clear vision of the exact approach.

2. Isn’t the Goal To, You Know, Play the Kids?

We just talked about the plan and misconceptions of what is fact, so let’s now talk about a concept that should be easy to wrap your head around, and here’s the thing, it might not lead to instant or even eventual success.

When I talk to fans, which happens literally every day, the wish list is rather long for the Pirates. They almost universally want an outfielder, a starter or two, a better backup catcher and some even want a second baseman via trade or free agency.

As I said, I’m not here to say they’re wrong for wanting to see someone come in here and have impact, make the team easier to take in this year, even if by simply looking more professional night in and night out.

I will say however at some point playing the kids has to come.

For instance, let’s look at the outfield picture. They’ve got Greg Allen, Anthony Alford, Bryan Reynolds and Ben Gamel. Super easy to see how and even why they should upgrade here. If I felt every other position around the diamond was on lock down I’d be hard pressed to find a place more apparent to spend and fill with outside talent.

Conversely, the Pirates chose to protect or keep protected, Travis Swaggerty, Jack Suwinski, Canaan Smith-Njigba (who’s brother looks like a hell of a wide out for OSU BTW), and Jared Oliva. That’s 8 outfielders that the Pirates feel can and should be part of the MLB puzzle this season. Some of you out there would even add Oneil Cruz to this mix.

That 4 man mix I listed first is underwhelming to say the least. Reynolds is obviously in a class to himself, but everyone else is either untested, short on opportunity or worse borderline washed out. So if they bring in someone real, like Michael Conforto (and yes they could afford him) that’s great, the 2022 team will be more competent. But I’d have to ask, why protect so many outfielders? Sure, one of Allen or Alford probably hits the road in this scenario, but at what point do the youngsters get a crack? Do you bring Swaggerty up to sit on the bench? If the assumption is they’ll all easily take a full year in AAA, they’re probably poor choices for protection.

Again, I could understand getting someone, but every player you bring in prevents someone else from coming up and getting their sea legs. To be blunt, we mustn’t expect 8-10 rookies to show up in February of 2024 ready to carry this team to a championship. Now is when I’d like to start seeing them get their taste, start to figure out the league, so I’d rather not build artificial roadblocks.

It’s a strange conversation in many ways. Partially because it’s literally arguing for not trying to upgrade, but at the same time it’s kinda about trying to upgrade.

I guess the best way to put it here to illustrate my point of view, I literally can see it both ways here and neither would upset me.

That’s just one position, they have 9 middle infielders, 11 starting pitching options. We could go through them all, in fact if they choose to not move on from Brault and Kuhl I can see a scenario where Brubaker or Keller don’t start in MLB. Is that best for this rebuild? I don’t know, even if I can reasonably say it might be good for the 2022 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

3. Hitting Coach is in Place

The Pirates hired Andy Haines to be the new hitting coach. His last stop was Milwaukee and he’s also coached for the Cubs. Funny thing is both of those lineups have been big power, low average squads which seems to not fit the skillset the Pirates have in place. That said, as I’ve mentioned before, the hitting plan is already in full swing, so Haines is simply an administrator in my mind.

I’m sure he has ideas of his own as to how to get through to guys and technique but the overall plan is already in effect. More than anything this management group has preached a player centric, individualized approach so if his only addition to the proceedings is getting through and the ability to do it via personalized tactics it’s a win.

4. Jacob Stallings is a Hot Name on the Market

As I’ve said in the past in regards to Bryan Reynolds, Jake is a good player, of course teams are interested. He solves a problem most teams have, a sure handed, level headed backstop who shows leadership abilities and he can hit a little too on top of being under team control for 3 years more.

Now, will the Pirates bite? Man, I wouldn’t.

I’d personally want Henry Davis to overlap with Jacob once he arrives and the timing of Jake’s control is just too good. I’ll also say the catching market is trash this year, meaning teams are going to pay far more for Jacob Stallings than they would typically. For instance, let’s say I have a 10 year old Ford Truck for sale and mine is one of only 3 or 4 in the region that actually runs. Well, let’s just say people are going to pay more than blue book value right?

That said, the value he provides by being here to me outweighs almost everything I can conceive him bringing back.

Let’s keep in mind an overpay for Stallings could look a lot like the fair return the Pirates got for Adam Frazier. Some decent prospects to be sure, but nobody you’re going to confuse with a close to the league difference maker. I’d also say this franchise has nobody close to helping internally at the position.

So it’d have to be coupled with either a catcher in return who’s ready to play in MLB (and you should assume if the other team thought they were an answer they don’t want Jake), or fishing from the same thin pool that these other teams think so highly of that they’re interested in Jake to begin with.

In fact, the best argument I can make FOR moving him would be 2022 isn’t going to be good, so it’s not a big deal if it’s a little less good.

Some people like to tell you he helps the pitching staff and helps them improve. I can say that’s probably true when he has a more normal situation than he’s had these last two campaigns. In 2019 when he had actual talent to work with on the mound but was clearly pegged to be the backup, pitchers started actively calling for him to catch them. What does this say? Well, clearly at least they thought he made them better or at least more comfortable.

The reason I travel all the way back to 2019 is simple, pitching staffs haven’t been used in a “normal” fashion for the past two years, so some tools have been removed from the box with a guy like Jake. He’s got guys who first of all arguably shouldn’t have been in the league, and youngsters who weren’t really on top of what they have in their quiver when they showed up for the hunt.

Wil Crowe is a great example of this. He has 5 pitches he can throw and any given night a different one could be his best. Jacob is adept at identifying those pitches early and helping them get to what they have working that day. So it isn’t a mistake when Crowe shows up with an unhittable changeup in one outing and by the 4th you look up and notice he’s thrown it 60% of the time.

Does he, personally Jacob Stallings, make the pitchers better? Well, I certainly couldn’t show you that with numbers, but I could show you with small things like what I just described. Maybe it’d be better if he pushed them to throw something that isn’t working and force them to improve it, all I can say is he’s good at this aspect and maybe that is or isn’t important.

If you actively want the Pirates to pull the trigger on a deal like this to me you have to check some boxes.

  1. You have to admit this isn’t going to make the team better, at least not now.
  2. You have to get a very specific return, no more best they would offer deals, this has to be a targeted, we want this guy, type approach.
  3. Be ok with Henry Davis not only having to get here and matter when he does, but now he best work out behind the dish, period.
  4. Be ok with the admission that 2022 and potentially 2023 are mere extensions of an already very long effort.

If you’re ok with all those statements and provided you can actually get number 2, have at it I guess, but I’d really caution this is more than a good defensive catcher who can handle the bat a little, this is a leader on a team where the two best players tend to prefer quiet, performance based leadership. That may be a little hippie inspired intangible for you but I think it’s safe to say he’s the emotional leader of this team, and I’m not sure I’d take it away from a very young core of players.

Look, on a good team Jake is the number 7 or 8 hitter, and if a top prospect is on the way he’s going to offer little resistance, but none of that makes him an easily expendable guy, and it certainly doesn’t make him easily replaceable in the short term.

One more point, and I’m not guessing here, there are players up for extensions the team is actively working with, and both are in the camp of wanting to see the wheels of progress start to encompass the MLB team, not just the minors. You can say that’s short sighted on their part, but just like you need this team to show you they’re serious at some point and commit to improving, they’re human too and don’t want to tie themselves to a ship that’s taking on water. Trading Stallings would be seen as a step in the wrong direction, and even if they’re wrong and Cherington got exactly what he wanted in return it’d be a tough sell. This may be a BS reason to keep him, but if they’re as serious as I believe they are about locking up these players, all that matters is what it means and says to them.

I might come around to understanding it, but I doubt I’d like it, regardless of return here.

5. The Mets Are Spending Like Their Market Says They Should

The New York Mets have been in on damn near every top level free agent on the list this year and they’ve netted their fair share. Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar alone would make for a full scale makeover of a team devoid of talent, which this team wasn’t. Easily lapping every other team for payroll additions in the early going here, even adding some players that put some of their own young players in limbo, but the market the Mets enjoy has rarely been met with spending on a level that reflects it. The funny thing is, they share a city with another team that has always spent like sailors on shore leave, and the minimal results they’ve achieved for their efforts seemed to teach no lessons.

The Mets will undoubtedly enter 2022 as the favorites to win the NL East, just as the Yankees tend to do in the AL East, but big money, big personality players don’t always get the job done.

If a team like the Pirates isn’t going to compete for signing these big names, I’d advise using some of their own prospect capital and alarmingly low payroll to take advantage of the wreckage caused by the sudden spending surge.

The Mets could now easily move someone like Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, JD Davis, or even Robinson Cano. Even someone like the injured Joey Lucchesi could draw interest. The point is, just because you aren’t playing the same game doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of the game being played.

I’ve used the Mets here as an example, but big signings across the league by teams already largely considered to be in good shape can open doors if you’re willing to look for them, and it might just be the easiest way for Pittsburgh to acquire more MLB ready talent.

This has been mentioned in this space before, but when you’re a team who isn’t going to compete monetarily speaking, you can’t afford to miss a trick, so much like the AJ Burnett move way back when, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.

Arbitration Tender Deadline Moved Up, Who’s Safe, Who’s Not?

11/27/21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Perception of who the Pirates will or won’t tender for arbitration changes as moves are made, with the deadline being moved to November 30th from December 2nd due to the impending expiration of the CBA and the need to have time for physicals it’s time to really take a look at who’s left on the list, and start to make some decisions.

So, first things first, let’s list them out.

Chad Kuhl
Ben Gamel
Colin Moran
Chris Stratton
Steven Brault
Jacob Stallings
Kevin Newman
Bryan Reynolds

Some of these are absolute no brainers, in fact most of them are but some recent moves have perhaps put a few on watch.

Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault are the most tenured pitchers on the roster and the Pirates may not keep both. It’s easy as a long time Pirates fan to look at both, feel they’ve been given plenty of time and want to wash your hands of both. They’ve struggled to stay healthy and even when they have been they’ve been at least a bit underwhelming. Here’s the thing though, experience is something this pitching staff lacks and I’m hardly comfortable with Jose Quintana being the only guy who’s got any.

Of course the Pirates could and I’d argue should bring in more, but as I sit here, I can’t see them cutting ties with both of them before this deadline. None of these guys are a prohibitive number so even if they change their minds, they aren’t going to get stuck with much and it’s highly likely they’d get picked up if waived anyhow.

Now, which one would I keep? Hoo boy, I think I’d have to say Brault if for no other reason than wanting to have more than one left handed option and when healthy he’s got a better body of work.

Since the Pirates owe two roster spots due to the Quintana and Yoshi Tsutsugo signings, non-tendering one of these guys opens a spot, and I think they’ll at least take one from this method.

Speaking of Yoshi, well he potentially changed the game for Moran. If rumors are to be believed, Yoshi is going to play first base, it’s something he apparently wants and a factor in him choosing to re-sign in Pittsburgh.

Now, we’ve talked a whole lot about the likelihood the universal DH is coming to MLB. So it’s not like Colin Moran would have no purpose, that’s still a stick this club could use and I’d also argue outside Michael Chavis they don’t really have anyone else to play over there. Before you remind me of Mason Martin, I’ll remind you they didn’t protect him on the 40-man so let’s at least assume he’s not expected to help this season.

That said, Ben Cherington didn’t make the Gerrit Cole trade, and it’s not on him to make it look ok, if Moran is someone he sees value in either on the trade market or simply thinks he fills a role as a DH, fine, but it won’t be to salvage a win from a years old trade.

Everyone else on that list in my eyes is completely safe and will receive a tender offer. Yes even Kevin Newman, if I have pause at all here it’s because they have so many options to play middle infield. The reason I think he’s safe is they only have a few who are true short stops, and they certainly don’t have anyone who has his track record at the position. That glove is valuable, even if the bat never comes around.

Long story short, there are really 3 guys to watch here, and I expect them to keep 2 of them. The funny thing about cutting Kuhl or Brault would be they are exactly the types of guys Cherington would probably go out and get. When I hear people want to drop Brault because he can’t stay healthy then celebrate the signing of Jose Quintana, it makes me chuckle a little at least. The difference is really that at one point Quintana was a top of the rotation pitcher early in his career, and Brault was almost always begrudgingly used as a starter after someone else was tried in the rotation first. Kuhl is a project, a guy with great stuff who has never found a way to harness it fully. Someone you could see a team like Pittsburgh taking a swing at on a one year deal to see if they can get him right, maybe even flip at the deadline.

So, yes, cut them by all means if that’s how they want to go, I’ll shed no tears, but don’t be surprised when damn near clones are brought in to replace them. It’s this train of thought that gives me pause. If they’re going to bring in more, I’d hope they’re a step above the level I just outlined, because if they aren’t they might as well just keep both.

To a degree, Moran is the same. If he’s right, he’s a decent hitter who’s shown he can handle pitchers from both sides in the last couple seasons, the problem is he sacrificed some power to do it. If he transitions fully to DH, well let’s just say he needs to change his approach a bit. Moran is going to cost about 4 million to retain so I’d have to ask, who can the Pirates get for 4 million who’s going to potentially step in and fill a DH role? If you think that’s reasonable I’d suggest for the production I expect you’d probably have to pay at least 6-8 on the open market.

Now, it’s plausible too that the Pirates would rather see that role filled by someone in the mix elsewhere like Chavis, or even Cruz but if we really want to see some improvement on the club this year, I’d rather not see them move on just to move on. Moran on the bench looks better than Park on the bench.

Interesting times, interesting decisions here.

I write all this by way of saying these decisions deserve a bit more thought than just believing they haven’t been good enough. That’s of course true, but I can’t ignore that replacements might be similar and cost more so I’m not sure I can just overtly recommend it.

Pirates Resign Yoshi Tsutsugo for 2022

11-25-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

First of all, Happy Thanksgiving everyone, if this news didn’t break last night chances are I’m writing a longer form message like that, but Ben Cherington seems addicted to making moves on holidays, so here we are.

After a fairly long courting period and a backwards negotiation the Pirates and Yoshi Tsutsugo finally came together on a one year, 4 million dollar contract for the upcoming season.

I say backwards negotiation because if rumors and quite frankly Japanese outlets are to be believed, the Pirates wanted to give him years, but Yoshi was more of a one year mind so here we are.

There isn’t anything wrong with trying to put some players on the field in 2022. I mean I’m not sold that what we saw in Pittsburgh is reflective of what we’ll see next season, but it’s low risk and I’m not about to complain about a power starved ball club bringing in someone who has it in spades.

Craig and I both have told you our concerns here, from feeling the NL Central that the Pirates played at a crazy level down the stretch started to figure out how to get him out, to struggling to hit the fastball, but I can’t deny it feels good to see them identify a guy they want and get him. Can’t say I’ve seen much of that in my time as a Pirates fan so I’ll take the symbolism as a win even if the deal doesn’t work out.

Now, what does this do to the team itself? I don’t think it necessarily spells the end for Colin Moran, if there is a DH it’s not like they won’t need that role filled, but it sounds like Yoshi specifically wants to play first base, and I’d imagine he was at least promised a good crack at it. The only other player who has played first base is really Michael Chavis and I don’t know if that’s enough to cut the only other player who’s handled it, but we’ll see I suppose.

We’re still owed two roster moves with the addition of Yoshi Tsutsugo and Jose Quintana the corresponding removals from the 40 man are next. Now, we should say both of these guys are “in agreement” meaning a signing is imminent, not that they’re signed, so the Pirates don’t technically have 42 guys on the roster as we speak, but with the deadline for tendering contracts moved back to November 29th from December 2nd the decisions loom. Could a non-tender be the route they take here for Moran, Brault or Kuhl?

We also got another move yesterday, albeit under the radar. Michael Perez (to nobody’s surprise) cleared waivers and was reassigned to AAA. Now, you might think this is something I’d get mad about since I called for him to be cut loose well, since August at least, but he’s actually someone that could help in AAA. He’s a good defender and I like having him as cover down there to hopefully help Carter Bins when he gets there at least on the defensive side of the game.

Let’s be real honest here, a move like this is barely a footnote to most teams, but considering I didn’t understand the Yoshi signing last year, at least this shows there was thought paid to the future at the time, and the message it sends to other free agents I like too. It says signing in Pittsburgh for a show me deal doesn’t have to mean you’re gone one way or another, if they like what you show, you might just stick around.

There is still more work to do, clearly, but I can’t see this signing as a negative, even if I try. Let’s say he sucks out loud, hits like .150 and the power just isn’t there when we look up in June, it’s 4 million for one year. I’m just not worried about it. If the worst thing that can happen is the Pirates flush 4 million dollars down the toilet, so be it. Maybe if I felt Colin Moran was on the cusp of putting it all together I’d feel differently. Maybe if I felt Mason Martin was knocking loudly on the door I’d feel differently. But overall, I like this swing, even if they miss.

Thanks to Jason Mackey for breaking the story.

Happy Thanksgiving my friends.

Pirates Fans Are Sold On Suzuki

Obviously this is not universal belief held by all fans of the Pittsburgh Baseball Club; mostly because some people view it as a pipe dream not even worth discussing. However, for the most part, Pirates Fans have taken to social media in order to add recently posted Japanese Outfielder Seiya Suzuki to ever growing list of players Ben Cherington and Company need to acquire for the off-season to be successful.

The Pirates need an outfielder and most believe they will sign a veteran free agent; so why not the recently turned 27 year old of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Nippon Professional Baseball League? The team is interested in him according to multiple reports and they need help in the outfield. Seems like the perfect fit. But, is it really?

Part of me thinks that Pirates Fans are just excited to mentioned in the sweepstakes. Along with this excitement comes hope; that the team may be more invested in improving in the short term. No more gradual growth, as part of their current rebuild. It’s time to make a splash signing to speed up the timeline, which honestly no one has set; except for maybe the fans themselves.

Still, I can’t help but wonder if this is the right move or not.

Sure, you can look at the stats that many publications are spewing to convince yourself of the necessity to acquire Suzuki; however, I’m more apt to look at history for answers. Luckily, we don’t have to go back too far.

During the off-season in between the 2019 and 2020 two Japanese outfielders-Shogo Akiyama and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo-were posted by their respective teams-the Seibu Lions and the Yokohama Bay Stars-following illustrious careers; with each being elected to five All-Star games, while Tsutsugo added two home run derby championships to his resume.

Now, if you listen to the weekly Bucs In The Basement Podcast this is will be a refresh/repeat of the final segment of this week’s show; although if you are like me-a visual learner-sometimes it helps to see the statistics in order to process them fully.

In 10 seasons with the Bay Stars, Tsutsugo totaled exactly 4000 plate appearances, hit .285, owned a .910 OPS and blasted 205 homers; with his last one coming in 2019, during his 27 year old season. That year he batted .272 with an .899 OPS, and hit 28 homers.

Not to be bested-at least in some categories-Akiyama hit .301, earned a .829 OPS and crushed 116 bombs in 9 season with the Lions, across 5326 plate appearances. In the course of his 31 year old season in 2019, he would hit 21 homers and bat .303 with an .864 OPS. For Shogo, his calling card was always his patience at the plate, as he struck out only 802 (17.2%) times while walking 526 (11.3%) times.

Now onto the coveted Suzuki. In 9 seasons with the Carp, Seiya stepped up to the plate 3536 times, hit 182 homers, batted .315 and posted .985 OPS. Just this past season he would hit .319 with a 1.079 OPS and 38 homers. Similar to Akiyama, Suzuki is also known for his K to Walk Rate, which sits at 19.1% to 16.3%; and just like Shogo and Yoshi he is a 5 time All-Star. Although, there are some differences in the three men, in that only Akiyama and Suzuki have won Gold Glove Awards; 5 to 3 in favor of the Akiyama.

Why, I am going through all of this? Well it’s pretty simple, as we all know how Tsutsugo and Akiyama performed after they signed their deals with the Tampa Bay Rays (2 years/$12 million with a $2.4 million posting fee) and the Cincinnati Reds (3 years/$21 million).

Tsutsugo owns a .209 batting average with a .697 OPS and 16 homers (8 in 43 games with the Pirates) over 447 plate appearances, while Akiyama has batted .224 with a .594 OPS and 0 home runs. Combined they have earned .4 fWAR and -.6 WAR over 2 seasons. This hardly makes their collective $27.4 million price tag worth much thus far.

Which ultimately brings me back to the questions I had concerning the motivation(s) behind Pirates Fans wanting to bring Seiya Suzuki to Pittsburgh.

It honestly has to be the excitement of the Pirates actually doing something that could potentially improve the ball club, even if it doesn’t work out; which history tells you is more than likely to happen.

I can’t blame fans for wanting something like this to happen; whether it be Suzuki or someone else. I just can’t co-sign on the idea right now; especially if it means spending upwards of $50 million over 6 years for a total wildcard. That has disaster written all over it.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades

11-24-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno – We are a week closer to the Winter Meetings, Joe!

In this installment we will be taking a look at David Bednar’s trade value. I have to admit, I’ve tried to start this a few times and I just couldn’t get it going, as I just can’t make sense of moving Bednar right now for a few reasons: 

1- There’s just too much control here to move and the cost in prospects would be prohibitive.

2-Bednar looks like a great late inning reliever and they don’t grow on trees.

3-At one point you have to add to the roster, not subtract. I feel we are at that point.

But we find ourselves, once again, having to address a player’s trade value due to his name coming up at the trade deadline. I have to think if his name came up in July that we will surely hear a rumor or three attached to him in December.

Joe Boyd – It doesn’t hurt that Bednar had a fantastic season, either.  I mean, just look at these percentiles from BaseballSavant:

That’s just beautiful.  And couple that with the assumption that Pittsburgh is a fire sale, and you can see why pundits try to create trade rumors here.  But the Pirates are not just churning assets, it would be extremely unlikely to move a piece that came over just last offseason in the Musgrove deal.  

On the other side of the coin, some may say that relievers are fungible, the running backs of baseball.  Or they may say that they are volatile and inconsistent.  So maybe you do make a deal for Bednar and strike while the iron is hot?  Let’s take a glance at the value for David and we’ll go from there. 

ZiPS is in the process of getting updated for the upcoming season, so we will have to estimate a bit on his value.  I’m sure you could push the projection up to something like 1.5-2 WAR if you are extremely bullish on Bednar, and you can use STEAMER’s projection of 0.7 WAR if you think that Bednar regresses.  I’m going to use 1.1 WAR (a very slight regression) to hedge my bets in the middle.  He is a free agent in 2027, so that’s 5 years of service remaining.  Projecting out that value and including an age factor, you get almost exactly $38M in true value.  Then if you subtract his salary (he appears to be Super 2 eligible … if that’s still a thing in the new CBA) you get a surplus value of $23.5M.  This is the value that I plan to use to develop a trade package for Bednar. 

DESTINATION: TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Toronto is a well that I like to go back to just because we know that Cherington and Sanders know the system.  But for the first time (I think, I did zero research) I ask for a Major Leaguer in return for one of our players!

Tim Mayza – LHRP – ETA: NOW – SV $15.8M
Look, if you want one of our prospects that happens to be from Western PA, you’re going to have to send back a kid from Western PA! Mayza is 29, but look at these percentiles, again from Baseball Savant:

He is under control through 2025, so plenty of control and his ability to miss bats and avoid hard contact would be a great addition, especially from the left side.  Utilizing the same projection style that we do for our Buccos, Mayza still produces almost $16M in surplus value. 

Gunnar Hoglund – SP – ETA: 2024 – FV 45 ($4M)

Yup, that Gunnar Hoglund that spurned the Pirates in 2018.  From Longenhagen, “Through 2021 Hoglund was arguably the most polished college arm in the class, sitting in the low-90s, while dotting a plus slider on the corner with remarkable consistency. Healthy Hoglund has the best command in this draft. His fastball’s tailing action garners looking strikes on the glove-side corner and sets up Hoglund’s changeup, which needs to develop.”

Hoglund is recovering from Tommy John, but should be close to returning to the mound if the Pirates were to make a deal like this.  Adding a polished arm like Hoglund would make it easier to move Bednar.

Julian Merryweather – SIRP – ETA: 2021 – FV: 40+ ($3M)

An interesting player that’s 30 years old and yet has prospect status.  Again, Longenhagen, “he has knockout backend bullpen stuff right now, and for a lot of prospects in this and other systems, that would be a great outcome. He’s prominently represented here, despite his age, because of that. It’s also worth noting a fourth option year has been imposed upon Merryweather due to his injury history, which isn’t great for him but certainly buoys his trade value a little bit because teams value roster flexibility.” Adding a player like Merryweather pushes the value to an acceptable level and adds another wildcard piece to the bullpen.  In this deal, we’ve traded a 26 year old with back of the bullpen stuff for a 29 year old lefty w/ control, and a 30 year old with back of the bullpen stuff… and a potential future #3 starter. 

JV – David’s stuff looks like the real deal and someone you can run out there for years, and the peripherals certainly support that. This means that any deal Cherington takes needs to be an overpay. I can even see him asking for a 50 FV player back in any potential deal. But, we’re to offer realistic packages so, here’s mine.

DESTINATION: TAMPA BAY RAYS

JV – With news today that the Rays extended Wander Franco (are you paying attention, Nutting? Get a Reynolds and Hayes extension done, please.) it’s time the Rays went full steam ahead, and the BP let them down in the 2020 playoffs. I think adding a controlled late inning reliever is just what the doctor ordered. 

JJ Gross -SP – ETA:2024 – FV 45+($6M)

The intriguing thing with JJ is his spin rates. In his first year, his FB spin rate was 2250(a solid number) and is now 2600 while his breaking ball rates jumped from 2050 to 2400. These numbers are per Fangraphs. The Fastball sat in the low 90’s. Now it sits 91-94 and as high as 96. The changeup is developing as well to an upper 80’s offering. The results aren’t there yet, but he has the look of a quality starter. Did I mention he’s just 20? SO there’s a lot of development left to play around with here and standing at 6’3” 186 lbs., he has the frame to add some velo. 

Carlos Colmenarez -SS – ETA:2025 – FV 45+ ($8M)

An international signing Fangraphs notes, “He is a caliber of prospect commensurate with a mid-first round pick.”  There’s a lot of development here as he’s just 18, but this is the kind of talent teams hate to give up in a trade. See: Cruz, Oneil. Now, Carlos doesn’t have the frame nor am I drawing a direct comp to Cruz. But he’s raw, highly regarded, and the FV for power is certainly there, scoring out at an FV of 55 for both raw and game power.  He also projects to stay at SS with a solid arm(60 on the scale) and glove FV of 55 and speed(FV 55). 

Chris Wilcox -SP – ETA:2023 – FV 45($4M)

Wilcox was predicted to be a 1st rounder in 2021, but slid due to signability concerns stating he wanted to go back for his last year at Georgia. Got an over the slot deal, and here we are. Wilcox has the upside of good #2-3 starter and the floor of a reliever, making him a good gamble in this deal. The fastball is legit, grading out at an FV of 60 on the scale. Ranging from 93-97 and capable of reaching back to hit triple digits when needed. To compliment the FB is a slider and a changeup grading out at an FV of 60 and 55 respectively. To be a rotation piece, he needs to show the velo throughout his starts and the change up needs to develop. Standing at 6’3” and 230 lbs I think that’s a good bet. Like any other 6’5’ pitcher out there, his command needs work. 

CONCLUSION:

JB – Even as I was writing that trade package I was saying to myself, “I wouldn’t accept this deal.” And I don’t think Cherington would either.  As has been the underlying theme of these first few ‘Talkin’ Meetings’ pieces, Cherington can and absolutely should listen on every player on this major league club.  There’s no reason to say no right off the bat, but creating a package that would be acceptable for both sides makes things difficult, especially for talented young pieces.  So just like Reynolds and Stallings, a Bednar trade just does not make sense to me this offseason. 

JV – Like Joe, I have the same feeling on the deal I built. I just don’t know if I’d accept the deal. If the Bucs were in the early phase of the rebuild, I am likely loving the deal. But does it make sense from where we sit today? At some point, every GM has to put a “target” date on the rebuild where they can say, “we should be winning this year.” They may not tell us this in those words. It’s more likely we notice this when they “add a piece,” whether it’s a free agent deal or a trade piece. We are quickly approaching that.  As funny as this may sound, it’s easier for me to envision a Bryan Reynlds trade than it is a David Bednar trade. If Seattle is willing to part ways with Julio Rodriguez OR Noelvi Marte and Emmerson Hancock, a Reynolds trade is possible and it could help the Bucs stay on their schedule. I just can’t see that in any Bednar trade, five years of Bednar is simply worth more right now. 

Joe, there’s one other thought I’d love to throw your way. If Bednar keeps shoving, the projections are likely to inch up and it’s entirely possible they can keep him for 3-4 years and move him with 1-2 years left and get as good a package for him then as they could today. This is the final nail in the “trade Bednar” thought process to me. If a GM wants him today, I think BC really makes them ante up? 

JB – Sure, the sweet spot to trade a productive bullpen arm would be with 2 years of control left, so maybe he becomes a 2+ WAR reliever and you can cash in on him then.  The Pirates obviously see the value in him as they had just traded for him.  They have reaped a bit of value already, they are not dying to move such a good, promising player.