We Should Absolutely Expect Improvement in 2022

11-23-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Language is so important, so note I’m not saying we will absolutely see improvement, I’m specifically saying we should expect it.

As fans dug in on what Ben Cherington has been doing, it’s actually a little weird just how infallible some require his every transaction be viewed. Ask a simple question about the motivation behind some move he made and be met with a chorus of “Trust the process”, or “Ben knows what he’s doing”. Listen, I think the guy’s done a great job here, but I’m tired of the endless defense of every single move, we have to have room to discuss this stuff.

Sure, to a degree you do have to trust the process, it’s not like you have much choice anyhow, and yes I’ve seen Ben Cherington’s resume too. That said, I’m more than a little shocked to see a fan base so recently burned by the best management team in baseball to willingly swallow again that these guys are smarter than everyone else.

OK, I suppose I should explain my position here a bit better.

The reason you rebuild is less about the team you have on the field as it is realizing the team on the field in MLB isn’t good enough, doesn’t have the room left in development to get good and furthermore doesn’t have the talent coming from the minors to enhance the product.

That’s what Ben Cherington walked into, an MLB product that had some good players, nearing the end of their time here and nothing (c’mon I know they had Cruz and Hayes) coming.

So the teardown had to happen. What I’ve particularly liked is that this GM didn’t go half way, instead he tore it down, all the way. they needed to do this for draft picks, they needed to do this to bring in prospects, they needed to do this because let’s be completely honest, the guys we called “stars” weren’t stars. Starling Marte, there’s the list of actual MLB stars that were moved from this team. No, not Josh Bell, not Joe Musgrove, not Jameson Taillon, sorry, nice guys, some really nice skill sets, not stars. Add in that this owner, in this market wasn’t going to, and probably wasn’t capable of buying the patches needed.

That’s all been done now. We’re entering the third year with this management group and I’ll readily tell you I don’t see this team improving all that much in 2022, but I think it’s garbage to say we shouldn’t expect some.

Why?

The teardown is over. The payroll is bottomed out. The prospects have been acquired, and in some cases developed. So they’re out of reasons to not add actual players to this roster. There’s no rule saying because they tore it down you have to wait for all those guys to be here before you start addressing needs.

Now here’s a caveat. I’m willing to believe they have more pieces here than most of us are thinking. Meaning, I’m ok with entering 2022 with the current rotation options if Cherington really believes there’s enough improvement coming simply from letting them continue the maturation process, but my point is it doesn’t HAVE to be this way. They don’t HAVE to not spend anything this year or risk screwing up the rebuild. They don’t HAVE to field a team full of prospects and never were’s, or destroy what they’ve built.

To me, I can believe in this GM, like what he’s doing and still say loud and proud if they enter 2022 with the roster looking like it does, it’s been done willingly. There is no mechanism of a rebuild preventing them from doing something as relatively insignificant as bringing in some real live tangible bullpen arms.

I’ve said since 2020, I expect bad in 2020, bad in 2021, “fun” in 2022 meaning we’ll start to see some of the prospects break through, and starting to compete in 2023.

Let’s say via nature they get 10 games better in 2022, well it’s a lot to ask that in 2023 they suddenly get another 15-20 game improvement without some kind of investment. Sure they could do that next off season, but they could do some of it right now too. Basically, just because you don’t expect to compete this year, the fans don’t need to see you compete for a top 5 pick again.

For me, part of the development process is surrounding youngsters with veterans. Having a more steady bullpen is the cheapest and arguably most impactful way they could improve the product and arguably more important, give these kids a better chance to experience winning or dare I say learn to win.

That’s really the point, they could.

People have gotten so defensive of Ben Cherington that we suddenly can’t question his moves or lack thereof. I look at this roster and I can reasonably say, yes, some of the young starters should grow this year. I can look at the fielders and feel there are at least so many options that we could find a decent lineup from the cream rising to the top. That bullpen though, man that’s not good. I’m not willing to believe all the holes will be filled by starters not making the rotation, and quite honestly, if the Pirates do I think they’re fooling themselves.

It’s early, the byline up there says November 23rd, not even Thanksgiving yet, so it’s early to complain about what has been done this off season when it really just started, but I’d rather voice my concern now when there’s still time to address it than complain when they get to Bradenton.

Again, real competitiveness isn’t a thing in 2022, even if they spend money, but I don’t think they’re all that far from a little investment in the right area making this team at least capitalize on the talent they do have. They have to strike a balance as you don’t want to block prospects, but that’s kinda why I identify the bullpen, there isn’t anyone to block. The two guys I’d put in that category Yerry De Los Santos and Hunter Stratton weren’t even protected from the rule five draft, and consequently aren’t on the 40-man so they aren’t being blocked.

To me, go get some guys and at least reward the players you have and consider to be part of the group that you’re building can experience winning more games they played well in. Insulate yourself from the growing pains of a very young rotation by not having them hand the ball to a very young bullpen.

Again, it’s early, maybe they have this stuff in the works, but the point stands, just because Cherington does it, doesn’t mean it’s the only way. Just because the team is in a rebuild doesn’t mean you can’t try to help your youth by providing some north stars to guide them.

Bullpen guys aren’t going to put butts in seats, but bullpen guys might put W’s on the board. David Bednar can’t be asked to be essentially a starter in the back end, get some help.

This GM stuff has almost become like politics. You voted for him and now you suddenly can’t see, or at least publicly admit, that he isn’t doing everything you’d like, deserve or in some cases were promised.

The team, I believe, is on a good path. I believe fully if they do nothing but let everything they brought in grow and develop this team will get back to competitiveness. I just also happen to believe this doesn’t have to be an abomination of a baseball team for the entire ride.

Now, are you mature enough to allow me to offer critique without resorting to calling me a hater of Ben Cherington? Can I say I don’t like a certain thought process without being told I’ll be proven wrong when his master plan comes to fruition? I like to think so with this audience, lord knows you can’t get away with it on social media.

Not accepting that something could be done does nothing but feed the Nutting Nutting Nutting folks that people following this rebuild are stooges. Doesn’t mean you have to think he’s a failure if he doesn’t bring anything else in, as I said there are other ways to do things, up to and including actually adding MLB talent right now.

The stated goal of this website is “Fair Pirates Coverage” so I’ll take being disliked by the extremes on either side as a badge of honor and proof we’re doing exactly what we set out to do. To achieve that goal, I can’t do it without asking questions, calling out what I see and being honest about some things that are uncomfortable. This is one of those realities, they could spend some money here strategically and it wouldn’t hurt this rebuild in any way.

We as fans have to start expecting more. Not the moon, but more.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-22-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates finally did some stuff, ok, ok, so the league had a deadline that made it unavoidable, it’s still some stuff right? Point is progress only comes for a team at this stage with change, addition, subtraction, either one changes the outcome, and that’s the best way to look at it. There simply aren’t moves coming that make this a competitive team in 2022, but that doesn’t mean we should bash every move like it means nothing.

Let’s get started, the thoughts are overflowing today.

1. You Realize Some of These Guys Will Actually Improve Right?

I’m all for improving the roster, I think we’ve seen enough of several players to know at the very least we aren’t dealing with a group poised to take one giant leap forward in unison. That said, I’m seeing a lot of takes that basically say “same team, same results”, and honestly, I’m not so sure.

No matter how you look at this roster, I don’t see another season of picking up 10-15 waiver claims, or trying to carry three or even four Rule 5 pickups. I see a more talented group of predominantly young players. Young players who I truly believe have room for improvement, and not pipe dream style.

To assume we’ll see the same results, I’d have to believe Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t going to push back and creep closer to the consistent hitter we hoped he’d become. I’d have to believe Keller, Brubaker, Kranick and Wilson will all stay right where they are and not take a step.

See that’s the thing that’s different in 2022, They don’t need that entire group to step up or become more than they are, they just need one to become an answer. More would be nice, but one would be one more slot filled. That’s what this is about, filling roles.

The youth pushing from behind is really going to add to the likelihood that the Pirates can be a bit less patient with underperformance.

The funniest thing about advanced stats is just how convinced seemingly everyone is that they are in fact gospel. Every season we see guys exceed their expectation, every season people tear apart the numbers to show why it was suddenly expected. LOL.

I love it.

David Bednar’s 2021 STEAMER projections were 58 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 61 K, 26 BB and then he did this in real life, 60.2 IP, 2.23 ERA, 0.973 WHIP, 77 K, 21 BB. It’s incredible how close some of these numbers were, and how far off others were. That’s because it’s an educated guess, not gospel.

I’m not a guy who believes these numbers have no value, I’m just a guy who sees them for what they are, a projection based on what has been seen, with little to no room for actually learning or improving in any one aspect of their skill set.

Let’s do one more because it works both ways, Kevin Newman. 2021 STEAMER projections were .271 AVG, .322 OBP, .706 OPS and in real life .226 AVG, .265 OBP, .574 OPS.

The expectation that you don’t know what will happen is key to sports, and the enjoyment of them. Take these numbers for what they are, and keep an open mind, some will overperform expectation, others will never meet them, that’s sports, and in baseball its really the game within the game. It’s why you can sign a pitcher for 3 million and reasonably expect the possibility they perform better than a guy you paid 25 million on occasion.

When following a rebuilding club, this understanding is essential. It’s so easy to say a rookie stinks, most of the time they do. Start giving up on every one that doesn’t start out like Bryan Reynolds or Juan Soto and you won’t build anything, well, except a bitter fan base watching former players in the playoffs elsewhere.

2. Quintana Isn’t a Savior, and I Doubt He’s Supposed to Be

2 million dollars is chump change, even for a team like Pittsburgh.

This guy is nothing more than a hopeful reclamation project, a barrier to entry if you will. As Craig wrote last night, it’s not exciting, it’s not high risk, but it is exactly what Ben Cherington told us he was looking for.

Fans recognize the name and in the PR game that’s half the battle, no different than seeing so many excited by the signing of Shelby Miller last season. This isn’t to say you can’t see it as positive that they went and got someone with experience. It’s not to say he can’t stay healthy or perform more like the best version of himself, but this doesn’t really move the needle on what this team looks like in 2022.

They have plenty of holes, and the willingness to spend some money just trying to find plugs is exactly what you hope to see here. More importantly, I’d like to see the willingness to see it’s a mistake and eat the money. If things are really different, this is akin to paying 2 million dollars for a tryout. If things are the same way they’ve been, he looks like exactly what his numbers say he should and they hold on with white tipped fingers praying he somehow does 2 million worth of work.

Now, I’d rather see them take 6-10 million and get one pitcher with more reasonable expectation, but consider the possibility they actually WANT him to be beaten out by players they currently have in house.

This happens all the time all over the league, the difference is when the Pirates do it we automatically have what I call the three phases of every veteran signing. First, the overestimations that the player will be that guy you remember seeing do some really good things, even if separated by years of contrary stats. Second the calls to extend the player, before seeing one pitch or swing. Third, the immediate turn to “flipping” the player at the deadline and back to overestimating the haul he’ll provide.

This is just a guy, a guy with history, a guy with talent, but more than anything another option that teams like this take low risk shots on. Hope to be impressed rather than set yourself up to be disappointed.

3. If Guys are Just Placeholders, Why Not Just Cut Them?

Easily the number one question I’ve gotten since the Rule 5 protection deadline. I don’t want to pick on any one player here but for the sake of illustration let’s use Cody Ponce. Cody is probably not a guy who will survive this roster, so why not just cut him right?

Let me try this way, because I’ve tried multiple times to help this make sense. (Which arguably means it just doesn’t actually make sense, ya know lol)

Your lawn mower has a wheel that the post has come loose on. It still cuts grass, but it’s clearly not fun to use and it’s not really doing a good job. You have your eye on a really nice new mower that’s in your price range but it won’t be available in stores until next year, in fact you’re actually a bit torn on whether you’ll like it or not based on the design the company has been touting. You can put your money down on the new mower now and assure that you’ll get one when it’s released or you can get a lesser model to get by for a year now, but you can’t do both.

Now, while you wait to make your decision a deadline approaches for putting money down on the new mower but you just can’t see waiting a year and using what you have so you decide to roll the dice and hope you just don’t have any issues with availability when the time comes. You turn your gaze to shopping for a stop gap alternative, maybe even on Craig’s list.

In the meantime, one thing you absolutely don’t do is throw that old mower away, I mean you might even still be thinking you can fix that damn post and potentially recoup some cash out of it, maybe you can even not get a replacement at all. Once you pull the trigger on the stop gap, your dream of fixing it fades, your need to keep it as a safety net dissipate and it finds it’s way to the curb with a sign saying free.

The new mower is that shiny prospect. The old mower is Ponce in this example and the potential stopgap replacement is someone not unlike Quintana.

The basic principle is that you can’t assume everything you want to get done will happen. You may feel you need 6 players and have 15 identified as filling the bill, but you have to be aware of the realities of competition, and baseball people are especially good at this, you have to realize you aren’t going to hit near .500 in any venture related to the sport.

If you want to take the analogy even further, after a week nobody takes that free mower so you haul it back into the garage and tool on it for a few hours and manage to get a decent backup machine out of it.

Had you just thrown it away on trash day, you miss that opportunity. By waiting and putting it out the day after there were far fewer people looking to pick it up.

All this happens to be is hedging your bet and realizing it’s better to have something that doesn’t work well than to have nothing.

4. Unexpected Allies

The CBA negotiations often are seen as having only two sides, the Owners and the Players, but a more accurate way to view this is really breaking it into 4. On the owners side there are the small and big market owners, for the players the young players dealing with baseball’s rules to keep their salaries in place and the veteran players headlined by the big earners.

Now when goals start to align from these fractions, that’s when I start to pay attention.

On the player’s side of things, the top earners are finally interested in doing something for the young guys, perhaps because they’ve given away so much on this front in past negotiations they know they’ll lose the room if they leave it untouched.

The owners side the major shock was hearing from Hal Steinbrenner from the behemoth Yankees about the MLB proposal to lower the Luxury Tax threshold. Check out this quote.

“All I can tell you is, there’s seven of us (owners) on labor policy: Boston, me, several mid-markets, couple small markets,” Steinbrenner said Wednesday at MLB’s owners’ meetings. “We’re a very diverse group. And when we came up with the proposal, including CBT (competitive balance tax) and luxury tax that we brought to the union, it was a unanimous — on our committee — a unanimous deal.”

First, it’s rare to hear any of the top spending teams admit there is an actual class system at play. We often wonder why these owners can’t look at the other leagues and see what’s missing in this one sport, and this quote shows something we haven’t seen emerge from the shadows before, they’re starting to see it.

No the proposal from MLB isn’t perfect, no it won’t fix everything, but it is very much so a form of salary cap system. It has a cap (albeit faux), it has a floor and it has increased revenue sharing.

To really make this effective the floor needs to be much higher, no more than a 20-25 million dollar spread can exist for true equality but it’s a start, and an admission that the problem is seen.

I don’t expect what we fans (at least the ones who see this as an issue) see as a true Salary cap system but I do expect more movement in that direction. It’s good for everyone, players included, even if they can’t see it right now.

The Forbes numbers for 2021 on payroll don’t come out until December so don’t beat me up Ethan Hullihen , just see this as a math exercise for now.

Let’s say they make the faux cap 200 million and the floor 120 million. The funding mechanism would have to be in place clearly so let’s just assume they handle that aspect as the players don’t need to care how that goes down.

There are 3 teams (again based on the numbers I have at my fingertips) that spend more than that cap. Accounting for close to 80 million dollars ganged together.

So we start the equation.

4.041 Billion Total Payroll
– 80 Million
= 3.961 Billion

Now add up how much every team needs to spend to hit the floor from where they are right now of which there are 14 teams.

3.961 Billion
+ 531 Million in new payroll money to meet the floor
= 4.492 Billion

That’s an overall increase of 451 million dollars infused into the players salaries.

I’m not a math major, in fact I hated doing this extremely basic example. I’m not claiming these numbers are gospel, but I am saying this is a really quick look at why it’s not bad for the players, and I don’t need open books to show it. They’d have to build in natural increases every year just like every other league and open books would probably cause those proposed cap and floor figures to change, but there is a path here to get better, not perfect but better.

It’s starting to be seen, and that’s worth noting. They can also use that ample room built in on the increased payroll dollars to address pay for minor leaguers and young players. It’s certainly more complicated than this, but when the one group I thought would completely oppose this on the ownership side sees and endorses something like this, perk up and listen.

5. Feeling Thankful

Craig and I are closing out our second full season here on InsideTheBucsBasement.com and we couldn’t possibly be more thankful for all of you. We did this with no funding, no advertising and until recently no other writers. Nothing but our willingness to work and your word of mouth has turned us into a blog thousands read regularly. We’re proud of what this site has grown to, and looking forward to continuing next year.

I’m also thankful for our contributors, Anthony DiFilippo, host of the City of Bridges Podcast, Justin Verno and Joe Boyd for all their trade chatter and prospect write ups have been welcome additions.

On the Podcast front, Craig has seen incredible increases in listenership for the Bucs in the Basement podcast and I along with my co-host Jim Stamm have been simply blown away by the response to the Pirates Fan Forum on DK Pittsburgh Sports Podcasting Network.

Absolutely none of this is possible without you. We’ve never aimed for click bait and always tried to shoot you straight, and you’ve rewarded us with tremendous conversation, patronage and in many cases friendship.

This Thanksgiving I simply want you all to know how very much we appreciate you, and make sure you know, we don’t take it lightly in any way. Thank you all, and be blessed.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Ben Cherington Is Gambling With Pirates Young Pitchers

I’m really not much of a gambler. The last time I placed a bet on a game was 21 years ago in college, I don’t play the lottery, the only scratchers I get are from my family for Christmas and I’ve never walked into a casino with more than 50 bucks in my pocket; while most of the time I only use the comp money you get for staying in the hotel. Once the money’s gone I’m done. And actually, if I hit “big” on anything, I walk away too.

Sure, I’ve gotten involved in fantasy baseball and football over the years-spending an insignificant amount of money in order to gain bragging rights with my friends-and went through a stage in my life where I would throw down a 20 spot to play Texas Hold’em at my buddies house, but even that was short lived.

In some ways I always compared Ben Cherington to myself because of the manner in which he stockpiled prospects at nearly every position in an attempt to minimize risk. Obviously Ben has a more daring side simply based on the high ceiling players he has focused on in many of his trades, including some pure lottery ticket acquisitions. However, every prospect is somewhat of a gamble, so it’s not like he’s taking a chance above and beyond what the other GMs around the league do on a fairly regular basis.

Yet, in the case of who Cherington chose to protect-and more specifically who he chose not to-it seems like he is stepping outside of the normal comfort zone he has created by maximizing risk to some extent. As we all know by now Cherington and Company selected the contracts of Canaan Smith-Njigba (OF), Travis Swaggerty (OF), Jack Suwinski (OF) and Liover Pegeuro (SS) at deadline; while doing the same with Diego Castillo (3B/SS/2B) a couple of weeks ago due to his impending Minor League Free Agency.

That’s five position players added into an already crowded bunch, which now totals 8 outfielders and 9 middle infielders. This is something Gary already addressed the other day, and isn’t necessarily something I am totally focused on; although it continues concerns and confuses me to a certain degree. Still, there is a number that worries me slightly more. During this process Cherington decided to protect zero arms.

Immediately you might think about the comments Cherington made when speaking to the media after the final decisions.

He started out by stating, “We’re balancing a lot of things. How do we use those 40 spots to our advantage this offseason, into spring training and during the season? We have to keep in mind that there’s a major league roster to build starting in April. There are 26 spots right there. We try to do the best we can to balance all these things, and our selfish hope is always to keep as many good players as we possibly can.

He went on to say, “We feel really good about the progress that the four players we added have made.”

Clearly this is the goal. Build an Opening Day Roster, AND be able to keep as many good players as you can. Also, you would have pretty hard time proving that any of these players didn’t make progress during the shutdown, as well as in the 2021 Minor League Season. Even with Swaggerty’s injury, that only allowed him to log 48 plate appearances in 12 games, there was a noticeable increase in power; plus it’s not like any of us got to see how he performed at the Alternate Site the year before.

Nevertheless, this isn’t all about performance, as some of those left off the list could have similar arguments made about their worthiness. In the end it is all about risk versus potential reward. The risk of losing players versus the potential of the prospects they protected, along with the hope of retaining those that weren’t.

Now, as far the possibility of having players snatched from the system Cherington said, Sometimes there are good players taken in the Rule 5 draft. But it’s not a real high volume of them. There are also a lot of players taken who don’t end up doing much, so you’re trying to find the needle in a haystack a little bit.”

Even though I totally agree with Cherington’s statement about the Rule 5 Draft, I can’t help but think that maybe Cherington added a few extra needles to the haystack.

Over the past three years a total of 43 players have been selected in the Major League Portion of the Rule 5 Draft. Of those 43 players 33 have been pitchers, which works out to approximately 77 percent of the prospects added to new teams.

This is why it is so curious to me that the Pirates left the likes of Omar Cruz, Yerry De Los Santos, Hunter Stratton, Cody Bolton, Travis MacGregor, Steven Jennings, Tahnaj Thomas, Eddy Yean, Santiago Florez and Michell Miliano off the list; not that they could have protected all of them, nor would I have wanted them to.

The first few guys on this list are ones that I honestly believe could factor into a team’s bullpen from the jump, Bolton is kind of like Soriano in that he could start the season on the 60-Day IL and potentially work his way back when he is healthy-no harm no foul if he doesn’t-and the rest are Oviedo types; who’s necessary service time can be manipulated by phantom injuries and limited/sporadic usage that totals around 30 innings of ups and downs.

Obviously, going back to my own-as well as Cherington’s-overall take on the Rule 5, that not many players will be selected and even fewer work out, the chances of losing a valuable prospect are pretty low. At any rate, by the numbers, the probability of a Pirates Prospect’s name being called is nearly tripled by having it be a pitcher on the block as opposed to a position player. This truth in this assumption is almost undeniable.

So, why wouldn’t Cherington choose to protect at least one arm based on this data? Honestly, I have no idea. Will it matter? Once again, I don’t know.

I just don’t see the reasoning behind the decision; which is ultimately causing a higher level of uncertainty/anticipation than there really needed to be.

Pirates Find Their First Real Bargain Of The Off-Season

In a Zoom call with the Pittsburgh Sports Media, a few days before Halloween, Ben Cherington addressed several topics, including their impending entrance into the free agent market. Prior to the following statement being made on the subject, and even a few times since, Pirates Fans have continually pushed the envelope concerning the types of free agents the team should sign. However, the Pirates plan was pretty laid out for them in black and white, through the voice of the man calling the shots.

“In terms of more general interest and approach, we’re focused on where we have opportunity on the major league team and where can we be opportunistic in the market, players that we think potentially fit on the team and we feel maybe haven’t reached their full potential and/or are coming off maybe a tougher season for some reason or just guys that we think we can connect with on a coaching level,”

Players that haven’t reached their full potential-enter Greg Allen-and/or those that are coming off a tougher season-aka a guy looking to bounce back/prove himself would be there main targets. Once again, the Pirates found their man in the form of Jose Quintana; and on a pretty good deal at 1 year for $2 million.

Of course the immediate reaction from many, including myself, was that this exact signing was a few years too late. This goes without saying, but it’s not like the Pirates would have sprung for Quintana’s $10.5 price tag during his last season as a full-time starter in 2019; or his 1 year $8 price point coming into the 2021 for that matter.

It wasn’t until Quintana tossed only 73.0 innings over the past two seasons, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, that he finally came into range for the Pirates and Ben Cherington.

During 2020, after he had his $10.5 million option picked up by the Cubs for a second straight year, Quintana managed only 10 innings over one start and four total appearances; all while falling victim to the injury bug, first with a left thumb nerve injury and then with some left lat inflammation. For the year he posted a 4.50 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP, which makes his shortened season all the more disappointing.

Looking to rebound in 2021, Quintana found himself in Los Angeles in a change of scenery. Unfortunately the injuries soon followed him during his time with the Angels. This time it was shoulder inflammation that eventually led to the end of his stint in La-La Land, but not in the Golden State as he was soon claimed off waivers by the San Francisco Giants; although his stay would only count for 9.2 innings towards his 63 inning total.

In between his two stops, Quintana put up a 6.43 ERA, a 1.730 WHIP, 85 strikeouts to 35 walks and 1.7 Homers per 9 innings. In short, mostly not great, but the strike outs sure were nice. Hence the $2 million versus $8 million price tag.

So honestly, what’s the upside for a move like this? Well it’s fairly simple. 1) There isn’t much risk. 2) The cost is only a little more than what they paid for Trevor Cahill last year. 3) There is hope he can stay healthy. 4) He hasn’t been a pitcher that relies on velocity to be successful, and even if he was it hasn’t dipped at all with his injuries. 4) Quintana is a name, which in some ways will appease fans, while possibly increasing the value of a flip at the deadline if he does return to anywhere near his pre-2020 form.

Now, onto the downside. It’s rather straightforward once again in that there really isn’t one, which is the main reason I like this move.

Pirates Need a Catcher….Again; The Future Looks Bright, but the Present, Well…

11-21-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

If you close your eyes for a moment and ignore that date in the byline you could easily find yourself transported back to 2019 or maybe 2020. The big difference this time is they aren’t looking for a starter at the position.

In fact the first thing we need to talk about is the reality that this club isn’t going to pay a backup more than they pay Jacob Stallings, he’s projected to make 2.6 Million, and I’m going to be more generous than the Pirates are likely to be and make that figure that came out before he was named the Gold Glove winner 3 Million.

Listen, I could have a lot more fun with this and get your rumor loving minds rocking if I didn’t bother with that stipulation but I’d really rather be realistic, even if it’s not as much fun.

We should also really look at what is being replaced. Perez was a -0.7 WAR player in 2021, He had only 30 hits, 7 of which were homeruns in 210 ABs, good for a .143 Batting Average. Sounds pretty easy to replace right?

Let’s have a look at all the different methods the Pirates could use to source this need and identify some players who might fit the bill.

Internal Options

This shouldn’t be a shock but the Pirates don’t have any ready made backup catching options in their system. They have some very nice prospects but none that are close enough to factor in this April in my mind.

Carter Bins – Acquired from Seattle in the Tyler Anderson deal
He currently resides in AA but I could see him getting a bump to AAA even as early as the beginning of the season, thing is, he just hasn’t been that good here. The bat is one thing, but the defense is what’s scaring me off a bit. He’s not done well controlling the running game and most scouts are underwhelmed by his receiving of the ball. I’m not ready to flush him as a prospect, but I’m not really thrilled to think he’d be the backup all season in Pittsburgh.

Eli Wilson – 2019 16th Round Pick
Eli started 2021 in Bradenton, then got bumped to Greensboro and even got one game in Indianapolis. His defense has been impressive, and the bat showed real promise with the Marauders and dropped off with the Hoppers. Eli is the catching prospect most people ignore, he’s not flashy, but he has shows a proficiency for handling a staff and has done well controlling the running game. Eli’s issue is he just hasn’t had enough experience at higher levels, keep your eye on him though, he may not be a future star, but should some other catching prospects change positions, he’s a nice option to have.

Rule 5 Draft

Before I get too deep here, a backup catcher should probably be expected to play about 25% of his team’s games, so hiding a catcher you select in this process isn’t exactly easy. Think of how bad Michael Perez was last season, he still played in 70 games. I’d also add, the reason you’d use the Rule 5 to pick up a player is because you understand they’re a prospect and have need for youth at the position while acknowledging you don’t have any coming, I don’t see the Pirates in that situation. If you’re expecting to be blown away by these options, don’t.

Michael Papierski – Houston Astros – 2017 9th Round Pick
Michael is a defensively sound catcher who can handle a pitching staff and with the bat he’s been very average. Last season he hit .246 with a .754 OPS.

I’ll be honest, I went through every team, this is the only one I’d really consider. And I wouldn’t consider it strongly.

Free Agent Market

Again, this is a backup position, don’t expect to be excited, and yes, I see a familiar face or two in the mix. The Pirates could even resign Michael Perez to a Minor League deal with no guarantee of anything beyond a shot in camp. This is really where that caveat of not paying more than Stallings is going to get plays in. That rules out your Robinson Chirinos’ of the world and the like.

Luke Maile – 1.5 Million or Less
Luke last played for Milwaukee and they had Manny Pina and Omar Narvaez so suffice to say he didn’t play much, 15 games to be specific, but he did hit .300 in his 30 at bats. He makes this list because they liked him before, was injured and they moved on.

Steven Vogt – 3.5 Million or Less
This one might be dicey. He made 3 Million this year but he also hit .195 and defensively he’s not exactly a stalwart. Could be a good MiLB with an invite candidate.

Roberto Perez – 1-1.5 Million
Roberto has been bought out by the Cleveland Guardians and I’ll be blunt, his stat line looks a ton like Michael Perez. To be blunt, you might want the devil you know here.

The Trade Market

Let’s be blunt, the Pirates have too many Middle Infielders, I mean too many to even realistically give them all good looks. I could see them swinging something to see if they can’t sway another team to give up their underused backup as part of the return. This is a scene I can’t digest yet. Too many variables still hang out there such as the tender deadline, and how the overall scene starts to take shape.

Let’s bookmark this method and revisit it later.

OK, so I told you not to get excited, but this is a quick view of what I see right now, and while I love how many times a day I get the comment “backup catchers are a dime a dozen, they’ll have no issue getting one” honestly, I’d love to see what some of them would say after drilling as deep as I just did on this position. It’s not pretty.

More to come…

Rule 5 Protections Shed Light on Pirates Plans

11-20-21 – Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The immediate takeaways from the Pirates decisions yesterday are apparent. Choosing to protect only 4 prospects, 5 if you count Diego Castillo, casts light on some other decisions we weren’t sure they’d make.

First let’s start with some stats and a quick view.

8 Outfielders
9 Middle Infielders
1 Catcher
20 Pitchers

Clearly the Pirates aren’t done here as they couldn’t possibly head into the season with this mix.

Today, I want to start on the mound.

Pitching

Safe
Miguel Yajure – Probably will start in AAA, but could find himself in a bullpen role
JT Brubaker – Easy keep, and likely to find himself right in the middle of the rotation
David Bednar – Closer, back ender, whatever, he’s safe
Blake Cederlind – Safe for sure, but most likely headed back to the 60-Day IL
Roansy Contreras – Might not start right out of Spring but he’ll push before long
Mitch Keller – Frustrated fans wanted 2021 to be the prove it year, but that’s 2022
Chris Stratton – Proven bullpen arm on a team with few
Bryse Wilson – Potential opening day starter
Max Kranick – Safe for sure, but unclear if he starts in AAA or MLB, starter either way

Probably Safe
Steven Brault – Starter, Bullpen, even a trade candidate, he’ll be tendered
Wil Crowe – Showed some good and bad, likely in the MLB mix somehow
Sam Howard – Lefty who’s had ups and downs, injury played a role in his struggles
Chad Kuhl – I would have cut him loose, but yesterday showed me the Pirates will tender him, wouldn’t be shocked if he winds up in the opening day rotation
Luis Oviedo – They want him to be a starter, and to get something for working with him all year, AAA or AA start for him.
Duane Underwood Jr. – Ate a ton of innings, and that’s why he winds up here instead of cut watch
Dillon Peters – Showed at least Steven Brault level capability and if he can stay on the mound he might just be a keeper

Cut Watch
Anthony Banda – If they’re going to bring in new blood (and how could they not) Anthony didn’t do enough to hold this spot
Eric Hanhold – The Bucs just picked him up off waivers, so I’m sure they want to see him actually pitch, but until I do, this is where he belongs
Nick Mears – I personally think most fans haven’t properly seen how Nick’s career has progressed, and where exactly he was asked to do most of his development. 2020 in MLB was his AA year, 2021 in MLB was his AAA year. The velo plays, and I think he’ll prove the wrong if he’s cut, but no denying he belongs in this space.
Cody Ponce – He’s had a few good starts, and a few good outings, but hasn’t really excelled at anything. That’s usually a recipe for dismissal, have to show something you’re better than most at

Opening Day Rotation (As it stands now)
Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Bryse Wilson, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller

Yup, that’s right, I see Kuhl going right back to the rotation, the team expressly said his move to the pen (that didn’t exactly go well) was to limit innings, not change his role. I could see either Chad or Steven being traded before camp, but they wouldn’t be on the 40-man now if they planned to non-tender either. I still think they’ll bring in another starter or two and maybe that shakes things up, but unless the CBA changes considerably how prospects are handled, Contreras will start in AAA as will Yajure.

The bullpen is going to change, just will. More options will be brought in, some we see as starters will move there too.

Spare me the “this isn’t good enough” takes, of course it isn’t, but it is where we are.

We’ll keep breaking this down as the days go by. On the list are looking at available backup catchers out there, who goes for Yoshi if and when they get this done (won’t be Moran) and how can they possibly carry 9 middle infielders on the 40.

Pirates Make 40-Man Moves, Rule 5 Protection for 4 Players

11-19-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

We’ve worried, we’ve arranged, we’ve even argued, and today the Pirates did what they did. We now move on to the next stage, dissecting and evaluating who they cut loose, who they protected and of particular interest, who they didn’t protect or cut. One step closer to understanding the roster they plan to attack 2022 with.

I say we dive right in, after all it’s not like you haven’t already read through enough of my opinion on what would/should happen.

The Cuts

Taylor Davis (C, 3B) – This actually happened awhile ago, but he was brought in on an emergency basis to back up Michael Perez, and was always going to be one of the cuts. No shock here.

Phillip Evans (IF/OF/Utl) – Phil started 2021 having some fans push him forward as a Rookie of the Year candidate, and he filled in admirably right after the Ke’Bryan Hayes injury. Sadly oil often finds it’s level and Evans just wasn’t good enough. Let’s be completely clear here too, the threshold for “good enough” on this team isn’t nearly as high as most.

Tanner Anderson (SP/RP) – A late season waiver claim, Tanner was given very little opportunity and it would appear the team saw enough. Again, not a surprise here.

Michael Perez (C) – A backup catcher gets a lot of leeway, he’s rarely expected to be a world beater, but Michael was arguably the worst hitter on a team full of them.

The Additions

Travis Swaggerty (OF) – There was some late thoughts by MLB Pipeline that Travis might not get protected, but in the end the Pirates felt he was close enough to the show, and likely sure enough about the glove to feel he’d be too high a risk to expose.

Liover Peguero (SS) – The SS will most likely start the season in Altoona next year and an MLB top 100 prospect is hard to slide through unprotected. It was a bit of a thought though I’m sure as he’s probably going to spend 2 full seasons on the 40-man or damn near without touching an MLB playing surface.

Canaan Smith-Njigba (OF) – He’s done nothing but impress when healthy, and looks poised to break through in 2022, he’ll start in AAA but probably isn’t far behind Swaggerty in the pecking order, if he is at all.

Jack Suwinski (OF) – This one shocked me a little. If they were going to protect 3 I thought sure the third would be Cal Mitchell. I’m a little taken aback because he was one of the few who didn’t get the bump to AAA late in the season.

The Things to Think About

So, here is a short list of the guys I at least thought warranted consideration. Of these I’m only really concerned about someone taking a run at Bolton, Thomas or Martin but all three have issues. Bolton with health, Thomas with performance and Martin with K’s.
Cody Bolton
Omar Cruz
Yerry De Los Santos
Cal Mitchell
Tahnaj Thomas
Mason Martin
Eddy Yean

Here is the official release.

Next up is the non-tender deadline, and the fact Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault survived today tells me they’ll both be tendered. If you felt any others like Moran or Stratton were borderline, squash that too.

This is less than Craig or I thought. But I started getting a feeling mid week.

The Rule 5 draft isn’t as scary as some make it out to be, but the more prospects the Pirates amass the more likely it is they’ll lose someone of real value. Forecasting a bit, 2024 looks juicy.

This puts the Pirates at 40 on the nose, clearly there will be more clutter cleared, but again, you can remove some of the guesswork now. All the tender candidates are likely safe into Spring now. If you want a 26-man related positive, they’ll likely be signing a new backup catcher.

More to come….

All the Pirates Have to Do is Win, Right?

11-17-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’ve lived in Pittsburgh most of my life.

Just missed actually seeing and remembering a Pirates Championship, saw two Super Bowl Championships and the Steelers involved in four of them, and watched the Penguins lift the cup five times in three decades.

Since I started covering the Pirates, I’ve of course caught venom from fans and those who call themselves fans for various reasons, and I’ve always kinda put it aside as nothing more than a frustrated base that will change when and if they see a winner. Recently, I’ve started to feel that euphemistic moment may never come. Some have even told me by covering the Pirates, I’m helping the owner, which is silly on its face.

Why?

I’m watching a Steelers team with a young offensive line and aging Hall of Fame Quarterback struggle to maybe make the playoffs and seeing a fanbase implode. Even the Rooney’s aren’t safe, they used to be a sacred cow.

Times have changed, I watched this team in the 80’s and you want to talk about stinking?

I’m seeing a Penguins team with an aging nucleus that provided 3 of the 5 cups struggle to stay on the ice and navigate the in and out nature of life with COVID. In fact when news broke this week that the Penguins were indeed on the cusp of being sold, although not finalized, some literally said they hoped with Mario gone the team would finally be willing to move Crosby and Malkin, Letang. Of course had they waited just a bit they’d see Mario will remain involved in a minority ownership role and everything else would remain in place.

Pitt Basketball and Football haven’t gotten a pass either, both coaches have had their head called for on the reg for the best part of their tenure.

Don’t worry though, winning will fix everything right?

I’ve written this before, but maybe in this context it’ll get through. Bob Nutting will be a pariah for the rest of his time as owner. The Pirates might come out of this rebuild and actually pull it off and get the job done, it’ll be to spite Bob Nutting, not because of him.

We have short memories when it comes to sports.

We forget that before the Penguins went on their run in 2016 they started out horribly and many fans called for blowing it up. Turns out they just needed a new coach and message, with a few small and key acquisitions. Look back on that season from our perch here in 2021 and you’ll be hard pressed to see it as anything else. Early that season Bonino was seen as a bust of a signing, “Can’t Play a Lick Nick” I specifically remember being the call.

We forget when the Steelers actually had their defense built to where they wanted it, Ben was lost for a season and suddenly the offense couldn’t do it’s part. We’d rather point out what Mike Tomlin hasn’t won, as opposed to the fact he’s found a way to keep the boat from completely sinking when everything said it should.

When it comes to the Pirates, well, they’ve lost, and lost some more, and not spent and somewhere along the line fans seemed to ignore or forget they were the one team in town that didn’t share the benefit of an equal playing field. Couple that with being cheap as a default and poor decisions and you have a recipe for a very disgruntled fan base.

Watching what has been playing out this year with the other two major sports teams in Pittsburgh, I’m reminded, even winning it all isn’t going to stop Pirates fans from hating this owner.

That’s just the nature of fandom, I mean if we’re rooting for teams, we aren’t rooting for .500. We aren’t hoping for progress. We want winning, and we want it every season. Well, mostly, I actually heard some folks complaining that the Steelers refuse to just stink so they can get a high draft pick yesterday. IN A TOWN WHERE THE SAME PEOPLE COMPLAIN ABOUT THE PIRATES DOING EXACTLY THAT.

I don’t expect fans to be happy sitting through a rebuild, especially when it comes on the back of a failed attempt at bridging from one window to the next. Makes it feel like they’ve been trying this since 2016. It’s not fun watching a MLB product that has almost nothing to hang their hat on.

That said, let’s not pretend as soon as they win (If, I should say) the clouds will part and fans will, out of shear gratitude, populate the stands at PNC for a decade just to pay homage to the culmination of 40+ years of trying to climb back up. It’ll last until the stars that got it done start to fade or get moved, then it’s right back to Nutting, and no doubt how he sold everyone instead of “keeping it together”. They’ll ignore player age, actual performance, returns, and even fiscal realities. It’ll be like winning never happened for some.

I know because we’re 4 years removed from the Penguins winning back to back championships and here we are, right back to the same narratives of early 2016.

The point of all this is pretty simple, if the Bucs pull this off, puff your chest out, but maybe keep in mind how easy it’ll be to tell you they won once in 45 years too. There is simply no path for this fan base to flip the script on how they feel about the owner, and he’s honestly got nobody to blame but himself.

You’re allowed to like all three teams. Being a fan of one doesn’t mean you can’t like another. Comparing how fans interact with all three should show you something though, winning isn’t a permanent fix. Two franchises have expectation of championships, one has an expectation of “trying to compete”. Two have leagues that support true parity and the spreading of talent, one doesn’t.

We have to learn to be happy in the moment. A cap system makes it possible for every team to compete on equal footing but it also makes the idea of dynasties or perpetual winning harder. Even if baseball fixes it’s biggest issue it won’t create championships every year, it’ll just create a feeling of having a chance on opening day more frequently.

You may not get to the point where you can wear your Pirates gear in town and not have some random person make a comment about not believing they had any fans, but I’d like to get to the point where folks aren’t seen as hating the other two if they’re repping one.

My generation in particular are spoiled rotten. As I said, in my close to 45 years I’ve seen 5 championships, lived through 6 if we want to get technical, and while I can look at our Sister City Boston and be jealous, there aren’t many other locales that can boast that kind of proficiency for championships, certainly for a market this size.

Winning will certainly help, but it won’t change a damn thing about how this city feels toward the Pirates Owner. It won’t change the fans who want to revisit mistakes made by GMs who haven’t been here in 15 years. It won’t eliminate the bitterness and misunderstanding of what exactly happened in 2016. But it sure will feel good in the moment.

Instead of looking forward or backward, I encourage everyone to live in the moment a bit, because no matter how you strain your eyes, right now is all you can see.

And that’s the Point.

Pirates Continue Regular Housekeeping…In The Shadows

In what can only be described as an act of trickery, the Pirates and Ben Cherington released two players-Phllip Evans and Tanner Anderson-from the 40-Man Roster over a month ago, but only permitted their names to be known by the watchful eye of a person who refreshes the transaction page religiously every five minutes without fail.

Up until this point everyone and their brother acted like the team was foolish to not trim the unwanted fat from the roster when they actually had; adding in Taylor Davis for good measure to cut the roster to 37 players; which some automatically assumed would open up the floodgates to add even more Rule 5 eligible players. As if for some reason these three guys being released hadn’t already been factored into pretty much everyone’s roster projections.

In all honesty release them a month ago, today or November 19th; it makes no difference. These three players, but more precisely what they represent, are remnants of faltered attempt to acquire talent on the cheap; although Davis was really an acquisition due to injury.

Either way, they were transactions that were bound to happen, and ones that were hypothesized as ways to create space for the incoming protected class; which in some ways they were. Although, truthfully they can’t expand the roster beyond its set limit. It’s an illusion that makes thing appear that way by having three open spots now rather than simply just making the moves simultaneously.

Regardless of the timing they have to move guys on to roster while other guys are moved off. Shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic as some fans choose to call it. Sure it is another story for beat writers to publish or bloggers to grasp onto, but if you are asking me it’s just another time when Cherington and Company had the opportunity to make a normal transaction into something more than it needed to be. Kind of like the Gregory Polanco situation.

Frankly, what would be so hard about announcing that you released whoever, but that it might not process right away? You made the transaction. It’s not your fault that Major League Baseball is so messed up with all its goofy rules that you can’t tell anyone exactly what you are trying to do. These players have been removed from your team. That’s legitimately the end of the story; except now it’s somehow more, and in the eyes of some there are additional spots on the roster.

So, what will Ben do with them? My immediate reaction is nothing. My perception after having time to contemplate the situation remains the about the same.

Cherington still has to protect players from the dreaded Rule 5 Draft that has somehow developed magical powers because until a couple of years ago no one really paid attention to it, he needs to prepare for the tender/non-tender deadline and he probably needs to get a free agent or two.

Those are the plans; with an extension for Bryan Reynolds hopefully mixed in.

And sincerely, if it’s the ultimate goal to over analyze-or maybe more accurately over react to every move by the Pirates-other than who they actually choose to add to the 40-Man or any legitimate addition to the roster-please count me out.

Unless it is discuss how poorly the Pirates address or announce even the most minor transactions. At that point I’m all ears.

Two Guys Talkin’…Meetings

11-17-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd – @JV_PITT & Joe_Boyd11 on Twitter

Justin Verno –It’s a week closer to the Winter Meetings and Joe and I are just getting started. When we started this, one part of what we hoped to do was to show different perspectives for these trade packages. As it turns out, we both have a similar approach to them, so that evolved into an honest discussion about the overall value we could expect. It still accomplished our goal, as it showed packages built differently and from different teams. 

But at long last, Joe and I will be talking about a situation where we have differing opinions on, what Ben Cherington should do with a player.

To trade or not to trade…Jacob Stallings?  There are compelling reasons for both sides of this debate, and ultimately I am in the “trade him” camp while Joe stands on the “keep him” sideline. 

Joe Boyd – That’s right.  We’re usually in lockstep on these, but perhaps with Stallings that’s a different story.  I am of the belief that Stallings makes the entire pitching staff that much better.  He’s an excellent defender, framer, and leader.  I doubt that Justin will disagree.  Those traits make him valuable to other clubs, but with a young staff and the ‘catcher of the future’ a few years away, Stallings adds plenty to the Pirates.  By all accounts, Henry Davis is a workaholic and has the passion to improve his craft behind the dish.  But to watch someone that actually improved significantly and to pick his brain, it’d be nice to have Jake around for a few more years.  Despite my hesitancy to move Stallings, we still should go through the exercise. So on to his value.

Stallings has 3 more years of control and ZiPS has updated Stallings’ WAR for 2022 to be 2.3 WAR. Accounting for age, that gives me WAR values of 2.3, 1.6 and 1.1.  If you account for the cost of a win, that puts his true value at $40.1M.  His arbitration estimates over that time are roughly $17.93M which puts his surplus value at $22.48M.  So that’s the value I think Justin and I should aim for when looking to trade him.  That being said, he is 32 and plays a physically demanding position, so I think that $23M in value would be difficult to find.  Nonetheless, I don’t want to move him because I think his value to the pitching staff is too high, so I would need to exceed that value to let him go.  

DESTINATION – HOUSTON ASTROS

JB – In our first rendition of this exercise, Stallings’ value was very similar (due to low ZiPS estimates) and I chose to deal with the Atlanta Braves. The reason then, and now is that they had the league worst WAR by the catcher position.  But there are other clubs that would be looking to upgrade the position, so I wanted to go a different route. And why not look at the AL champions that lost to Atlanta?

Hunter Brown – SP – FV: 50 ($21M) —

According to Longenhagen, “Already armed with plus-plus velocity after coming out of a D-II school in Michigan, Brown has added a plus-plus curve since turning pro and could enjoy a rapid rise with more pitch efficiency.” 

I would argue that Pittsburgh has done quite well to restock the shelves with position players.  They also have some excellent arms that could work out, but pitchers are always so hit/miss.  Adding a player with this good of stuff would serve the club well as they are looking to have an embarrassment of riches on the farm. 

Forrest Whitley – SP – FV: 40+ ($3M) — Back to Longenhagen: “Whitley has No. 1 starter potential when graded on pure stuff, but his inability to consistently take the bump every five days has earned him a well-deserved “injury prone” tag.”

Not long ago, Whitley was a top 5 prospect in baseball.  Understandably, he’s fallen off due to injury (see my note above), but the stuff is still there.  Using the Walking the Earth mindset (you know, not many people with this kind of talen are walking the Earth), you could do well by adding such a high reward wildcard/change-of-scenary piece.  I think that Whitley would probably love to work with someone like Stallings to help out his game, but in this scenario, they are two ships. 

In all honesty, I probably still say no to this deal.  I like the idea of adding two starter caliber players to the team and I think that Whitley helps out in 2022, but I don’t like the talent drain of dealing Stallings.  Who’s going to catch for these two?  

JV – I think Stallings is a guy the Buccos won’t actively shop, but they will take offers and negotiate. And if Ben Cherington gets a package he loves, I think he’ll pull the trigger. As much as I like Stallings, I think he represents the last guy that Cherington has that is tradeable and brings excellent value. (We acknowledge the Bryan Reynolds rumors, but he isn’t going anywhere.) Stallings is so important to the young pitching staff and I could easily be convinced that BC is better off keeping him, but with Davis on the way I think moving Stallings for the right package is the way to go.  Cherington needs an overpay and I think he can get it!

DESTINATION – New York Yankees

JV – There are a few teams I considered here but I think it could come down to the Yankees and Rays battling it out here. Both are teams with high expectations the last few pre-seasons that have fallen short of their play-off hype. Enter a C that can help the pitching staff over that hump. 

Luis Medina-SP- FV:50($21M)

Not too long ago Medina was viewed as MIRP, Fangraphs actually still has him projected to the pen. But the control has come a long way and he has a chance to stay in a rotation as Fangraphs put it, “He’s not big, and the control is messy, but the upside is considerable” 

And when a pitcher has an FV of 70 on 2 pitches that is a point that is hard to argue with. Medina is capable of hitting 101 on his fastball, grading out at an FV of 70. His power CB is the other 70 FV offering. The changeup is currently a 45 on the scale with an FV of 55, if the Bucs feel they can help him develop that changeup and clean up that control(an FV of 40) Medina could be a great addition to the system.

Austin Wells-RF-FV:45($6M)

Adding Wells here would be an overpay, but it’s what I think Cherington should ask for. Wells’ best attribute is his power with an FV of 55 on the scale for raw and game power. Currently a catcher but a move out form the plate could hemp that power play better than the 55 grade. The hit tool, currently 35, needs work but all in all Wells would be a solid second piece. 

CONCLUSION –

JB – When we did this exercise earlier in the summer, I was open to moving Stallings, doing a complete tank and getting the #1 pick in 2022.  My justification was that if you added that pick to the Stallings trade, because losing him derails the season, then the value would be immense.  None of that happened, and after the dust settled we had our catcher of the future in Henry Davis.  I think that he needs to work with Stallings to develop on the defensive side, and I think that that is a match made in heaven.  The value of my trade deal is there and, on paper, is a yes.  But Stallings leadership and other intangibles are too valuable for me on a young team.  Perhaps the Pirates add more veterans to lead this club in 2022, but they already have one in such an integral position that I think the costs far outweigh the beneits. 

JV – Joe, I am still in favor of moving Stallings if the package is right but I honestly had a hard time putting together a package I liked. I settled for the Yankee package above but somehow felt disappointed in it while at the same time noting it’s an overpay the Yankees would likely turn down. Saying Cherington should move Stallings for the right package is so much easier than putting one together. Considering what Jacob does for the young pitchers on the roster I’d say Cherington has a tough job ahead of him, glad I’m not the one making the call here.