Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-15-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Big week, and I’m going to try to not touch it in this piece. The deadline for Rule Five protection is the 19th of November so I expect a fairly active week across MLB and the Pirates are no exception. If you haven’t read it yet, Craig and I broke down what we expect to see as well as our concerns. Check it out.

Believe it or not, there are other things to talk and think about, but it’s hard to stray too far from this topic even if just on the peripheral.

1. Outfield Madness

Of all the Rule 5 stuff, the outfield is arguably the strangest. As we sit here the Pirates have Greg Allen, Anthony Alford, Ben Gamel and Bryan Reynolds on the 40-man. They need to protect Travis Swaggerty, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and I could argue Jack Suwinski. Now just from a roster construction standpoint, having 7 or 8 members of your 40-man be outfielders is at least odd. Considering 20 will be pitchers most likely (maybe more) that leaves very little room for anyone else.

Perhaps that’s why MLB Pipeline felt Travis Swaggerty isn’t a slam dunk to be protected. It’s such a large number for one position group part of me thinks we might just wind up being shocked by what they actually decide to do here. I’m still predicting they protect Swaggerty, Mitchell and Smith-Njigba, but Jared Oliva is an easy out, and I might include Alford. Swaggerty’s injury last season helped make this situation worse, he could have been in MLB last season and then he’s not a question mark, as it stands, he’s been on the sideline watching the group start to catch up.

Interesting decisions here, keep an eye on how they handle it as it will directly speak to some other players on the bubble.

2. They Won’t Cut Loose Everybody Yet

When this deadline passes, it doesn’t mean this is the 40 man they plan to enter 2022 with. There will be guys left on this roster that are nothing more than filler. Let’s say Tanner Anderson for instance survives this round, well when the Pirates bring in competition via Free Agency, guys like him are fodder for DFA. They have to do this because it would be foolish to protect a prospect only to try to remove him and sneak him through waivers. If you’re worried about a guy getting taken in the Rule 5, well, worry more about them getting through waivers.

I’d also say this deadline will advise how they plan to handle Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl. Both are due to be tendered for arbitration in early December and if the club plans to let both walk, now would be the time to remove them from the 40 to get an extra spot or two for protecting prospects. It’s not the deadline, but mentally it kinda is.

3. Sooner Than Some People Think

This was Ben Cherington’s quote to MLB Network when asked about the timing for the Pirates being competitive. Now what does that mean?

Some people took that to mean watch out we’re going to ADD this off season, others took it as a non-committal way of saying it’s coming without pinning himself down. In reality it’s probably more about really liking the mix he’s creating and likes the swell he’s got coming.

No GM is ever, ever going to tell you we’ll be good in these years, instead they’ll always handle it with vagueness like this, but it’s better than saying 4 years right?

When this whole thing started with Cherington I felt we were in for a few very bad seasons and 2023 would be what I’ve called “fun”. So far, I can say we’re on my proposed track, a terrible 2020, awful 2021, and I’ll be bold here and say 2022 won’t be good either with the caveat after the All Star Break I think we’ll start really feeling the infusion of youth. This sets up for a very fun 2023 with some more prospects pushing their way in too and 2024 investment time.

From moment one of this effort, that last point, investment time, has been the elephant in the room. They either do it or they’re no different than they’ve been. They’ll still be a competitive team, but a threat to win it all simply won’t happen without that last step and until we see it, I won’t believe it. Call me jaded if you want, I still think this is the right path for this team under this system, but until I see actual investment in the MLB product when the timing matches up, I’m going to hedge my bet. Maybe I’m just protecting myself, but I’d rather not be crushed by at least convincing myself it probably isn’t going to happen.

4. The Core is Forming

It’s early in this rebuild, even if it feels like we’ve been waiting since 2016, it’s important to really give Ben Cherington a clean slate, so in my mind the effort really started in 2020. You could argue some of the wheels started turning in 2018 but I’m going to give Ben a bit of separation from what was done and what is being done.

Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, David Bednar and arguably Jacob Stallings are the core of this unit. In 2022 I think we’ll see Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz added to that list at a minimum. Really thinking about where this thing is headed, it’s clear pitching remains the single biggest issue. I look at the minor leagues and I see talent, but I’ve been around a long time, in no way am I going to sit here and envision the winning rotation of the future all resides there.

Some things that could really guide the timeline is how some pitchers evolve this season. If just one of Brubaker, Keller or Wilson take a jump this team could wind up with 2/5 of a rotation with reinforcements on the way. If none of them proves themselves as an answer the bats are going to absolutely boat race the pitching aspect of this plan meaning they absolutely would have to invest in that aspect to maximize that first wave.

When we throw around terms like “tear down to the studs” we meant it, and this is what has survived the sifter. There is much work to be done, but unlike 2020 when you look down you actually see some lights.

Everyone hates hearing this, but it’s a process. It’s much easier to point out all the holes, but sometimes it’s therapeutic to look at the slots that are starting to fill.

Another thing that could really help would be for some of the small pieces to sort themselves out in the middle infield. Michael Chavis, Oneil Cruz, Diego Castillo, Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Tucupita Marcano, Rodolfo Castro, Ji-Hwan Bae and more are all going to compete in a season long slobber knocker to hopefully come out of this season with some real answers. Find no answers and the Nick Gonzales/Liover Peguero anticipation will take over. No matter what you think of any player I mentioned, it’d be a hell of a lot better for the Pirates if you were genuinely worried about who goes for those two top prospects in a year.

5. The Detroit Tigers Are a Fun Comp Team to Watch

News broke today that Eduardo Rodriguez is headed to the Tigers on a 5 year deal. They’ve been building through the draft ever since they tore it down as far as they could. I say could because they’d love for someone to take Miggy off their books, but it is time. They have the prospects in place, they’ve retained some of the early arrivers and they’re ready to ramp back up now.

Detroit has something the Pirates don’t, and that’s a history of doing exactly this. Building the system via trade/draft and international market then spending, all the way to 172 million and they did it for a stretch of years too.

When the Tigers tell their fans they’re going to go into a rebuild, those fans have real world, recent examples of their team spending to make it work. When the Pirates tell you they’re going into a rebuild it literally means if they’re a good player and aren’t controlled for half a decade they’re gone and you best hope for GREAT return because that spending hasn’t been there.

Detroit is a very similar market to Pittsburgh, and I look at them because they’re about a year or two in front of the Pirates. Very similar paths with high draft picks, moderate stars to move, an albatross contract (albeit nowhere near as bad as Polanco’s was) and a young group with a few standouts starting to show good and more on the way.

That team has spent big, this one hasn’t. Everything on the way is exactly the same, until you hit that one area. If the Pirates break trend, we’re all in for a very fun era of Pirates baseball, if they don’t we’re all firmly planted in HOPE that so many prospects thrive they don’t need much more.

Look, nature will take it’s course and just through attrition this payroll will top 100 million before this is all done, but will they spend that extra 30-40 to push the envelope? That my friends is something history tells me I shouldn’t bank on, but I have to acknowledge that Cherington’s history is very much so doing exactly that, and he took this job knowingly.

Regardless, I feel comfortable saying Detroit is exactly what you hope for when your team rebuilds and up until that time where pushing it comes into play, the Pirates are right on track. We’ll see.

Rule Five Protection Deadline is the 19th, What Can We Expect From The Pirates

11-15-21 – By Gary Morgan & Craig W. Toth – @garymo2007 & @BucsBasement on Twitter

Gary – I think it was probably back in May when Craig and I first started turning our gaze toward this date, well, at least out of the corner of our eyes. We’ve warned, worried and after the trade deadline worried some more, and now it’s finally time to try to figure out what will be done since they’ve already cleared out some of the players to get to 40 in the first place.

Today, Craig and I will again team up to discuss this subject and hopefully at least show clearly the options at hand.

It’s always best to start where you are, so here is the 40-man as it stands right now.

Gary – Now, Craig and I have both already seen it as odd some of these names remained when the Pirates trimmed the first few pounds of fat not all that long ago so some names coming off aren’t going to shock us or anyone else for that matter.

The team has a plethora of players who “need” protection from the Rule 5 draft and that’s the first date on the calendar to deal with, couple it with the December 1st non-tender deadline because some of those decisions can and will inform this decision.

I’m not going to list every prospect that’s up for discussion, instead I’m going to list who I believe the team simply has to protect or truly risk losing and I’ll list them in my order of importance/risk of losing.

Liover Peguero
Canaan Smith-Njigba
Travis Swaggerty
Cody Bolton
Omar Cruz
Yerry De Los Santos
Cal Mitchell
Tahnaj Thomas
Jack Suwinski
Mason Martin
Eddy Yean

I should start by saying, I don’t see them protecting this entire 10-man list, not because I can’t find 10 guys I’m willing to cut, but because I can’t see enough of these guys really having a chance to make the show in 2022, a couple even 2023 isn’t a given, and that’s a tremendously long time to hold a prospect on the 40-man even from a flexibility standpoint.

Keep in mind, this team will add, and every addition will require someone on the 40 to no longer be there, so you can protect everyone from the Rule 5, but might just wind up having to remove someone to bring in someone like Trevor Cahill, and when you do, well, let’s just say you have bigger problems than Rule 5, cause now a team simply has to claim them with no restrictions to make it difficult to keep them.

Let’s look at that chart again, this time let’s highlight guys who are likely on the bubble.

Craig, I talked for a good long while here, and all I’ve managed to do is lay out the scene. Time for some thoughts from you here brother.

Craig – As Gary said this is something that has been bouncing around in the back of our minds, as well as between us, since the Minor League Season started. There were certain players we had targeted as ones to watch. Seeing if they would take a step forward, fall back or simply just not show enough to put themselves in the discussion for needing 40-Man Protection; all the while knowing that others would emerge from relative obscurity to toss their names into the conversation.

Then Ben Cherington went and added more names to that list with trades at the deadline, creating an ever growing index of prospects that would possibly need to be guarded from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft; ultimately containing one who already has, in the form of Diego Castillo. Which brings us to the 40-Man as it is presently constructed.

Now, when I look at the current 40-Man, and how it has already changed since the start of the off-season, it’s undeniable that even now some of the names still remaining could easily be jettisoned into the sun without much of a second thought. Included in this list for some are two of the Pirates recent additions-Eric Hanhold and Greg Allen-who were castoffs themselves; although Cherington has already stated that he can see Allen in the outfield competition mix.

However, for me there are a few players that are potentially more obvious candidates; including Phillip Evans, Jared Oliva, Tanner Anderson and one-or both-of the Micheal Perez/Taylor Davis catching tandem. Throw in Cody Ponce, along with an apparent favorite to toss aside in Nick Mears if you like, and that still only creates an immediate opening of six to seven spots on the roster.

Yet, not all of these can be filled with players that are two to three years away from the Big League Club, as Gary mentioned; which is why Pirates Fans may need to be prepared to lose a Tahnaj Thomas or an Eddy Yean to the Rule 5 Draft. Replace a Ponce, Anderson, and/or a Mears if that’s your preference, but be prepared for another player of a similar ilk to take their place rather than a player that hasn’t made an appearance above Low/High A.

Also, think about how tough it would be to select the contracts entire projected 2022 Indianapolis Indians starting outfield, and then doing the same with a Jack Suwinski. Do I like Suwinski, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cal Mitchell and Travis Swaggerty, or at the very least do I want to see what they have in these players? Absolutely. Do I think they can protect them all? Probably not.

Gary – Totally agree with all that Craig. We should also probably remind people its a risk, not the same as saying we’re not protecting them and expect them to be taken, just a risk that they could be. If you think of it like that, it really helps work your way through this. It’s also not the same as saying Sam Howard is as good as Tahnaj Thomas could be. Instead it’s more like Sam Howard can help in 2022, Tahnaj won’t help until like 2024, IF he does at all. That’s what makes some of these rolls of the dice a bit better than shooting for snake eyes at the casino.

So I’ll take a first crack at this Craig and I like you’re numbers so I’m inclined to agree, we need 6 or 7 spots for this process.

Gary’s Removals
Phillip Evans, Taylor Davis, Tanner Anderson, Jared Oliva, Chad Kuhl, and Cody Ponce. If I need a 7th, Steven Brault.

Again, this isn’t a guarantee you lose all these players, but it is a guarantee each are placed on waivers with the exception of Kuhl and Brault who would be non-tendered and become free agents.

Gary’s Additions
Liover Peguero, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty
Tahnaj Thomas, Omar Cruz, Yerry De Los Santos, Cal Mitchell

Now, I’m accounting for additions. When they sign a veteran pitcher or two, I need to still have some junk in the trunk if you will, so I have to leave some space in the form of players I can live without. Anthony Alford, Eric Hanhold, and the like can be dropped but if I went nuclear right now, I might find myself having to expose someone like Mason Martin to waivers.

Craig, first of all, am I nuts here? And I can’t wait to see how you’d handle it. I should also say here, I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if the Pirates only protected 3-4, just knowing the numbers of players who’ve actually been taken let alone kept they might feel safer than the general fan who’ve become quite invested in these prospects since the rebuild started in earnest.

Craig-First off, I think we are both a little nuts, but not because of your-or my-train of thought in this process. Holding onto a Hanhold, Alford, Allen, etc. does give you some wiggle room with the acquisitions that will surely come, even if they aren’t as exciting as people want them to be. Last off-season the Pirates acquired Troy Stokes, Jr., were able to pass him through waivers and eventually outright him to Indianapolis with no real trouble. The same thing could happen with the three guys I talked about, as well as few others.

As I mentioned before there is clearly some low hanging fruit when it comes to removing players from the 40-Man, but I feel there could also be a surprise or two.

Craig’s Removals

Of the low hanging fruit Phillip Evans, Jared Oliva, Tanner Anderson and Taylor Davis are all but guaranteed in my mind to not start the year on the 40-Man, so I see no reason not to just cut the cord now.

I see Cody Ponce as slightly further up the branches, with one of Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault being non-tendered to make room. If a 7th is needed I might go off script and expose Duane Underwood, Jr. because of the injury and over usage during the 2021 season.

Craig’s Additions

Liover Peguero, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Omar Cruz and Cal Mitchell are pretty much no brainers for me. Mason Martin is the next man up mostly because of immediate possessional need behind Colin Moran. Last but not least, if there was a 7th Spot, I would protect one of Yerry De Los Santos or Hunter Stratton as I believe both could be held on the active roster of many Major League Teams in the bullpen for the required amount of time. They also have a very good chance of providing the Pirates with bullpen depth at some point next year.

As Gary said, it is completely plausible that the Pirates and Ben Cherington are only planning on protecting a maximum of 3 to 4 players, which would leave some fans’ favorites-including some of my own-out in the wind to a degree; albeit, many could be added to the 38-Man Minor League/Triple A Reserve List to protect them from the Minor League Phase of the Rule 5.

Furthermore, just because they aren’t added to the 40-Man, it doesn’t mean the automatically gone. Only 18 players were selected in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, with a few not even sticking on their new team’s roster through Spring Training.

So much emphasis has been put on Pirates Prospects over the past two years since Cherington took over that many see the loss of even one as catastrophic. It would no doubt be disappointing in the moment, but it’s far from the end of the world.

Gary- So here is my shocker from you, no Tahnaj. You could sway me out of my protection if you pressed me a bit but I’m curious as to your thinking there. And the only other player I was super iffy on was Bolton. I just don’t know if he’s a guy anyone would take a stab on not unlike Soriano.

Aside from that, I think this is pretty close to reality between the two of us. A few differences here and there but overall, it seems we both agree they won’t trim all the fat right now, instead they’ll keep some pork around in case they can’t find better options.

And I’ll pose one more question to you. I personally think Oviedo is more than a year away, especially if they’re trying to make him a starter. I wonder if he might wind up being waived which of course would open questions about why they held him all year especially when the pen was imploding, but a big part of me thinks he might clear.

Now I’ll shut up and let you close this thing brother.

Craig-If you asked me at the beginning of the year if Tahnaj would be protected at this deadline, I can say yes without hesitation. Now, after seeing his performance this year, I’m a lot less sure of the need. I know the kid can whip it up to and over 100 mph. I am also aware that he walked batters at a 5.19 per 9 inning clip and gave up 1.93 homers in the same timeframe, while his strikeouts per 9 continued to fall; ultimately landing at 9.20. I believe he might be selected, which could cause an uproar. I’m just not sure he could stick for the whole season.

Bolton is one that I go back and forth on because even though we have seen him toss the ball around, I can’t say for sure that he comes back at 100% to start the season. Sure, he could eventually be moved to the IL again, but for now that’s two pretty big question marks-with him and Cederlind-holding down 40-Man spots. I get that his is a little different because it is a knee and not the arm, but pitching is a full body activity, and overcompensating in one area because of an injury being rehabbed could spell trouble in other areas.

As far as Oviedo is concerned, it all comes down to the fact that I don’t think Cherington and the Pirates invested this much time and energy into a player to risk losing him. He could be a year away, but could also arrive sooner as a long relief man, an extended opener or as part of a piggyback. I believe we both agree or at least understand the state of starting pitching is evolving, which changes the need to build up a starter for seven to eight innings. They could get him to three or four innings-successfully I might add-and have him finish the year with the Big League Club.

As the deadline quickly approaches I am only certain about one thing; there are going to be some frustrated Pirates Fans in the immediate future. Not everyone that particular sects within the fanbase favor are going to be protected. In recent history this really hasn’t been an issue because the number of tough decisions were extremely limited due to the lack of potential talent in the system. Also, look for things to get even more difficult in the upcoming years, if and when other top prospects continue to develop, while others emerge.

Pirates And Cherington Look To Ride The Waves

11-13-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

As soon as Gary mentioned that he would be going to Florida for a much deserved long weekend away, I immediately felt myself being transported to Madeira Beach; although my feet remained firmly planted in Western Pennsylvania.

Each year, at the end of July/beginning of August-for the past seven years personally-anywhere from 20 to 30 of our family members invade the pool, sand and warm waters of the Gulf for a week of fun in the sun; with some baseball always mixed in. However, on this specific occasion, the memories that popped into my mind had nothing to do with loading up our cars to go see any number of Minor League teams-or the Tampa Bay Rays-take the field. No, this time I was standing beside my youngest, waist deep in the water with him clumsily balanced on a boogie board; just waiting for the perfect wave to come in to take him to shore, as I had done with his older brother and sister over the years.

Now, for anyone that hasn’t tried to ride a wave-or at the very least assisted someone in learning how to do so on their own-it is actually a fairly tedious and time consuming venture; mostly consisting of looking for the water to swell, come to a crest and begin to crash pretty much right behind where you are standing and/or floating. If they break too far behind you, all momentum is lost, and the board will simply bob you up and down in the water as next crescendo takes place too far in front to be able to catch up.

At this point you may feel the urge to move back or in to find the exact spots were the waves crashed before; and often you do. But, then you witness the swell and break happen exactly where you first stood; or most times in a completely different place all together. So, you move up or back-over and over-until finally there is a push from behind as the wave grabs hold; forcefully driving you and your board toward the sand. It only lasts for a couple of seconds, but it’s just long enough that you go rushing back into the water to try it again; as the cycle of waiting, watching, plotting and searching repeatedly takes place. Always looking for the perfect spot to catch that next wave.

Similarly, we as Pirates Fans-just like my son on the boogie board-have been compelled to wait and watch, while Ben Cherington plots and seeks; or in his baseball terminology, works to identify and attempts acquire talent. Thus far, his efforts have resulted in the sprinkling of high ceiling prospects in a few different waves throughout the organization; to go along with a couple Major League ready players, several unknowns and a variety of holdovers from previous regime.

In the presumptive first wave includes Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras, Miguel Yajure and maybe Rodolfo Castro, who all got to dip their toes in the water this past season. Other possibilities include Travis Swaggerty, Mason Martin, Diego Castillo, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Ji-Hwan Bae; or Cody Bolton if and when he returns healthy.

Next up, and potentially more highly anticipated, is the second wave with Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester, Carmen Mlodzinski, Michael Burrows, Omar Cruz, Matt Frazier, Jared Triolo and Henry Davis expected to arrive in the next couple of years.

Finally, you have a somewhat more spread out grouping of Jared Jones, Hudson Head, Endy Rodriguez, Brennan Malone, Po-Yu Chen, Eddie Yean, Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White, Jr., Shalin Polanco and Solomon Maguire in the third wave and beyond.

Each of these is a swell within in the system, accompanied by other prospects in between; not knowing where/when exactly they will crest and break. If they fall behind, it is normally due to a peak in the Minors with a less than optimal performance once they reach PNC. The ones that crash-in a positive or negative way-closer to the sand might not help the Pirates because many of those within that mix could be gone by then; with an unpredictable amount left to help bring in the board, or welcome it ashore.

In all honesty, it’s truly a guessing game; combined with a little bit of hope, and optimistically a good amount of skill backing the decision making.

Yet, there’s one thing I forgot to mention, especially when it comes to my youngest. The push I give him to get him going, which in the Pirates case would be that free agent or two that help bolster the team, and in turn the opportunity to succeed. Still, it has to be perfectly timed like the wave-while factoring in precision and balance-as not to upset the initial drive; because any miscalculation could easily result in an overturned board.

And none of this even takes into consideration the possibility of injuries, or what a Bryan Reynolds trade (not gonna happen…right now) could mean to the state of the organization. Just like my youngest having his big sister, big brother or a multitude of cousins stepping in front of him as he makes his way to the promised land; crushing his spirits before he could barely get started.

It’s not going to be easy, and it’s not always going to be enjoyable for Pirates Fan; and success is obviously not guaranteed. But, exactly like my son, the rides that stick out in our minds are usually the ones that last the longest and create the most fun; even though there is often a lot of down time in between.

Listening is the Job, but Executing Would Be Especially Dumb

11-12-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Hey! Here are all the teams that could use a great, young player, with years of control.

Proceed to list 15 teams.

Look over there, the Pirates have a guy just like that, what do they need him for they stink and he’s going to cost them some money at some point.

Proceed to ask 15 teams if they’re interested.

Feign shock when 15 teams say of course. Act further shocked when 5 or 6 say they actually called about said player.

Report. Reap Clicks.

There it is folks, the roadmap for “breaking news” in the baseball world.

Bryan Reynolds isn’t going anywhere, as I’ve been telling you for at least a year, and try as you might, you can’t convince me a package could be put together that wouldn’t get the counterpart GM fired on the spot.

What we’re seeing right now is a combination of actual GMs having actual GM conversations, reporters fishing for stories, reporters picking up stories that happened back around the deadline, the general misunderstanding of fans about what GMs do when someone calls on anyone, and if I might be so bold, wishful thinking on the part of those covering big market teams.

The Pirates own the rights to Bryan Reynolds through 2025, and without an extension he very much so will be up for discussion every single deadline and offseason for ever and ever. Even with an extension, providing it’s reasonably team friendly, it’ll only delay this stuff by a season or two.

He’s good, like real good, so of course other teams want him. What many fans want to hear is that Ben Cherington blew raspberries into the phone and hung up then sent a cease and desist order to the offending party. In reality, what every GM would do, even if someone called the Angels on Ohtani, is listen.

See everyone has a price, but the willingness to actually pay it, well that’s a horse of a different color. If the Rays called and offered Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena straight up, of course you’d do it. Now, I put this forward because inevitably people will start trying to change my mind or convince me it could be done, but even a prolific GM like Erik Neander should at least be on shaky ground after a move like that.

With 4 years left at a minimum, a package for Reynolds would be astronomical as our friends Justin and Joe illustrated well the other day in their Two Guys Talkin’ Piece.

AKA, not gonna happen.

No, not even Bob Nutting wants to trade an established young MLB star with years of control for prospects. Reynolds is the goal.

Now, keep saying Reynolds will get traded, eventually you’ll be right, so there’s no danger in pushing the narrative, but not now, not yet.

Cherington and company were hired in 2019 as I’m quite sure most of you know, trading Reynolds would say very clearly to the fan base that they don’t see this team getting close, and close is a key word here, by 2025. Think about that.

If that’s true, I suggest they hired the wrong guy.

At some point if you’re going to make a jump, you have to slam a foot down, and that’s what 2022 needs to be for the Pirates. The product of sifting, and unlike the first round, this time they need to keep the gems they’ve found.

No that doesn’t mean because Colin Moran is still here he’s part of the core that wins, it means quite literally, you have Reynolds, Hayes, Bednar and a few more interesting possibilities we need to learn more about with tons of team control. That’s the damn goal folks, that’s why you do this.

You hope some of those possibilities pan out to turn your core into 6 or 7 deep, then you hope some come out of this first wave of prospects by 2023 with Cruz, Roansy, Yajure and others. That’s how you build it out, and that’s where they are.

Remove Reynolds from that group and this entire thing gets sent back monumentally. I say all this and I STILL think Cherington has to take the calls and talk. If for nothing else, to find out who’s valuable to teams in their own system, and who isn’t, because at some point you may very well be interested in a deal with them and calling at the time of desperation will change the intel.

If you want to worry about something like this, I can’t stop you. If it’s just fun for you to come up with trade possibilities, that’s of course your choice, but I defy you to have it make sense with where the Pirates are in this heavy lift.

I’m going to cover this team regardless of league inequities, owner shortcomings, poor moves, whatever, but if this team trades Bryan Reynolds right now, I can’t wrap my head around anything that comes close to making sense. Not even the Rays would pull the trigger this early, and they’ve proven more often than not they know what they’re doing.

If fans that have clung to the job Cherington has been doing decided to jump ship, I can’t say I’d blame them. There is simply no way to sell this and that’s even if they technically “win” the trade, because at the end of the day, Bryan Reynolds IS the window. Extend him and keep it open longer, trade him and slam it on your fingers.

2 Guys Talkin’ . . . Meetings

Justin Verno – Before we really get going here, Joe, let’s start by stating a few things:

1) Joe and I did not start any trade rumors on Bryan Reynolds

2) Neither of us think Ben Cherington will actually move Bryan Reynolds, nor do we think he should

3) Lastly, (and we wrote about this at the trade deadline) we feel Bryan Reynolds should get an extension.

I wanted to start with that, Joe. Reynolds is a guy that we have included on this list because there are rumors by reliable sources that his name came up (apparently a lot) at the 2021 trade deadline and that the Pirates listened, even telling teams what they would need to trade Reynolds. On that alone we have to at least consider that a GM will go off the rails and actually ante up with a crazy package.

Joe Boyd – Let’s start by asking who could potentially need a 5.5 WAR .302/.390/.522 switch hitting outfielder.  Well, that list is pretty long.  Reynolds is cost controlled (4 ARB years remaining) and brings a ton of value to a team, so it would make sense that teams would call and try to get him in a fire sale.  But for the exact reasons that Reynolds is attractive to other clubs are the reasons he is valued here in Pittsburgh.  

We’ve seen a few articles posted recently that showed that there was, indeed, interest in Reynolds at the deadline.  And I believe that Cherington handled those requests the correct way.  Shutting the door immediately is bad business.  But countering with a ludicrous offer that would be a fireable offense for the opposing GM is the correct play.  In the case of Miami, Cherington requested their three top prospects, in Seattle he demanded one of the top prospects in baseball, Julio Rodriguez.  These get reported as ‘serious’ talks about Reynolds, but the truth of the matter is that Cherington needs to be floored by a Godfather offer.  He’s leaving the phones open and that’s the best practice when you have a player that is so sought after like Reynolds.  

But you’re not here to be pandered to about keeping Reynolds, right?  You know he’s staying.  But that’s not why Gary & Craig invite us on to this platform, we’re here to discuss hypothetical scenarios that are within the realm of the possible. So let’s quickly get to Reynolds’ current value.  It appears that Fangraphs have updated their ZiPS projections as Reynolds has gone from 2.5(ish) to 3.6 WAR projection for 2022. Accounting for age, we can estimate his projections for 2023-2025 to get a total WAR for the next 4 years around 11.6 WAR, or a total value of $104.2M.  We can also estimate is ARB salaries to get $47.59M for total salary remaining.  That gives us an estimated Surplus Value for Bryan Reynolds at $56.43M. If you’d like a range, say (2.5-5 WAR next year?) you can ballpark a value at $39.19M-$78.38M. 

So now saying all that, should we get into some Godfather offers? 

JV – Let’s get to it. If Cherington is to move Reynolds, I think he needs two things:

1) A jaw dropping offer

2) At least one player close to the majors

The Bucs first wave is to hit this year with a second, hopefully coming in 2023, so Ben Cherington needs to keep his eye on that schedule. This is yet another reason that hints to not trading Reynolds (but as Joe points out, that is not why we are here).  Using the list of teams that reportedly called BC to ask about Reynolds, we get a good list of teams to choose from to make a trade package.

  • Mariners
  • Braves
  • Brewers
  • Marlins
  • Indians
  • among others

It’s worth noting that the Brewers, Braves and Mariners are all reported to have made “big time offers” for Reynolds. I’m going to pick a team from the list that we know made offers for Reynolds. Strike the Brewers off the list, as there are too many reasons why this won’t happen. Reynolds has too much control to move to a rival. Add in the Brewers would have to really overpay to add him, and this just won’t jive.  The team that makes the most sense to me? 

Destination – Seattle Mariners

If Jerry DiPoto, Seattle GM, decides to go all in on Reynolds, he has the pieces to do it. If Cherington gets an offer too good to pass up, moving him to an American League team would make it easier to swallow.   And a deal too good to pass up needs to be an overpay for Cherington. I’m shooting for the stars here, Joe.

The package –

Seattle gets Bryan Reynolds (78 million surplus) 

Julio Rodrigeuz – OF – ETA:2022 – 60 FV($55M)

One of the premier prospects in baseball. After making an adjustment at the plate a few years back, he’s really taken off. The hit tool looks better than the current 35, and I’d say it’s better then the FV of 40 right now. He has power, his raw power sits at an FV of 70. He’s a complete player, scoring at an FV for speed and fielding of 50. It’s easy to see why Seattle wouldn’t give him up at the deadline, but this is what Cherington would need as the main piece for Reynolds.

Emerson Hancock – SP – ETA:2023 – 50 FV(21M)

Leading up to the 2020 MLB draft, this is the guy I really wanted to be there for the Bucs so if Cherington can nab him here I’d be thrilled. He hit AA last year, so I can see him ready in late 22 if all goes well. Emerson has a 4 pitch mix and can max out at 97 MPH, giving his fastball an FV of 55. His changeup and slider both grade out at an FV of 60, with a curveball that sits at a 50 FV.  He’s got the frame to be a power pitcher and front of the rotation stuff. 

Zach DeLoach – CF – ETA:2024 – 40 FV($4M)

Pirates take a chance on a power hitting CF. When DeLoach makes contact he hits’ em hard, with an FV of 50 for both game and raw power. The trouble is the 30 hit toll but if he grows into that 50 FV for his tool, then you’ve got something. 

The odd thing with this package, Joe? I can see Cherington wanting more. The ironic thing with it is the Mariners would likely say no. This is the overpay Cherington would need to even consider moving Reynolds. 

JB – That’s my favorite thing about this exercise.  It’s so difficult to get a package that would be of adequate value.  There just aren’t enough 60+ FV prospects in baseball.  If you’re trading Reynolds, a premier/bonafide star outfielder, and you get back Rodriguez, who is awesome, you’re still getting a wildcard versus a known commodity.  That’s why you have to add a top pitching prospect + to get Cherington to a yes, and now you’d imagine DiPoto would get cold feet.  To make a deal for a player JUST entering his prime is a fool’s errand, enter your fool.

Destination – San Francisco Giants

Talk about a hilarious turn of events, eh? I do not imagine that Giants fans clamor over the Cutch for Reynolds/Crick trade like the Pirates faithful do with regards to the Archer deal.  But imagine the thought of sending back the top piece for additional riches?  Man, that’d be a fun thought experiment. It’s difficult to find prospects even worth a discussion with Reynolds, but one of the few clubs that have the pieces are, in fact, the Giants.  Perhaps San Francisco sees their window opening a bit sooner than they  had imagined, and they can go and get a piece like Reynolds that would quietly lead their team?  Hey, I’m not saying it’s going to happen or even likely. I’m just saying that it could maybe/sorta make sense. 

Marco Luciano (60FV / $55M) – When looking for a centerpiece to a Reynolds deal you need to seek out a prospect that is just different.  Reynolds has been fantastic for Pittsburgh, so you need to see if you can get a player that would be MVP caliber.  Luciano may be that guy.  Longenhagen, on Fangraphs, writes, “When Marco Luciano connects, you feel it to your core. He is not normal…If he continues to perform, especially if he hits his way to the upper levels, then this time next year we’ll be talking about Marco Luciano as one of the best prospects in baseball, and if he does so while improving his infield defense, perhaps the best.” 

Hunter Bishop (45 +FV / $8M) – Bishop is a bit of a unicorn.  He’s built like a linebacker, but plays centerfield like a running back.  He’s from the bay area, so a deal to get him would need to be special.  He’s got the power bat that could be a solid middle of the order guy, but has the athleticism that JUST gives you enough potential to be a superstar in the game.  It’s a small chance, but if you have Luciano in the deal, that’s a nice amplifier.

Will Bednar  (40+ FV / $3M) – Back to Longenhagen, “Will is a strong-bodied righty who has been up to 96 and has some feel for a loopy, shapely curveball and a harder slider.” Bednar has a better chance to stick as a starter than his brother, but man it’d be fun to have two Western PA players on the Bucs.  The Bednars would be the baseball version of the Watts!

Jairo Pomares (40+ FV / $2M) – Pomares has always been a target for me. He provides a bat that has a high power and OBP potential.  Another high variance player that has shown a bat that could be promising.  He’d be an additional lottery ticket with serious upside. 

I would be hard pressed if I am San Francisco to accept this deal, and to be honest, I may balk if I’m Cherington, as well. This deal provides an otherworldly talent in Marciano and additional prospect depth that makes a ton of sense, but still you’re dealing with four coin flips for a surefire star under control.  

CONCLUSION:

JB – So we have discussed our first, very unlikely, trade candidate and we’ve shown what a package would have to be to move a player like Reynolds.  Some may compare this situation to the Frazier deal and I can emphatically say it is completely different.  The drop off from 1.5 years of control to 1 is major from a value perspective.  So the Frazier deal made sense to happen when it did.  Reynolds, on the other hand, has time.  The demand is there for a player of his caliber, and the supply is low (especially at the salary price point) so Cherington can simply sit back and ask an exorbitant price.  If Seattle or San Francisco were to provide this package, perhaps Cherington would have to seriously consider the offer.  But the two deals we have suggested are not obviously yeses.  Perhaps the Giants throw in Bart or Seattle puts another top prospect on the table that makes it a no brainer, but there will be no settling for Cherington here.  It’s either godfather deal or no deal at all.  And, as we have said in the past, we see an extension and an olive branch to the fanbase to be much more likely in the case of Bryan Reynolds. 

JV – Every rebuild has a seesaw tipping point to it.  We all know that point when you’re on your way up and the seesaw is perpendicular to the ground, then your friend swings their leg to slow it down? That’s where we are in the rebuild. Trading Reynolds is your friend swinging their legs and slowing the rebuild down. If Cherington is to move Reynolds, he needs to make sure he’s slowing the seesaw down and not jumping off altogether. This would mean the kind of overpay Joe and I have laid out where the upside of the pieces would need to have Ben running to the phone, and most GM’s don’t find those packages very palatable. 

This could do more than slow the rebuild; it could anger a fan base that is already none too happy with the franchise. No GM should make moves based on the fans, but with the team poised to get better over the next two years, moving one of the linchpins of that improvement seems ill conceived. In short? Pay the man his money and keep Reynolds in Pittsburgh!

Five Things That Could Add 10 Wins in 2022 Internally

11-9-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Believe it or not, Ben Cherington doesn’t care what I think. I know, it’s shocking. So he surely doesn’t care that I disagree with the idea that this season the only way this team will measurably improve has to come from internal growth and improvement.

I certainly expect some of that, but I’d like to see the club go out and buy some help, hedge their bet a bit if you will.

So I got to thinking, what are some things I could realistically see happening this year that could make me wrong and vindicate the GM for his stated stance. I’ve come up with 5 things, and I think if you can say this team wins 70 games in 2022 most reasonable fans would consider that progress.

Realistic is obviously in the eye of the beholder, but I at least think these things are doable, so let’s dig in and see how we feel on the other end.

1. Rookie Contribution

The Pirates as currently constructed don’t have enough to really produce the minimum 9 more wins so somewhere, new talent needs injected. Under the constraints the Pirates are seemingly placing on themselves take a stab at where that comes from.

Roansy Contreras, Oneil Cruz, Miguel Yajure, and Travis Swaggerty are all the closest at least as we sit here right now. To get those 9 extra wins they’ll need real impact from two of them. You can go off and list the myriad players right behind these 4 but each of these have the best shot to break through and actually carry a load when they do in my mind.

Now let’s define that a bit, carry a load is a bit up for interpretation. I think this team needs to add at least 40 homeruns and 100 clean innings to show the kind of realistic improvement we’re seeking, I don’t see all of that in this group but I’d think between the 4 of them 15-20 homeruns and 60-70 good innings isn’t asking too much. We can obviously hope for more but those are good baselines for rookie expectation.

If they get nothing from any of them, I think it might be a struggle to get there, even giving you the expectation there will be others called up. Mid season isn’t going to cut it for adding what the Pirates need to add, so I’ve highlighted guys I think could really help by no later than June.

2. Take a Step

This is an incredibly young team, at least when it comes to baseball age so there ought to be plenty of this happening all around the field. For this entry though, I mean on the mound. Bryse Wilson, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker in particular have to bear the brunt of this need. All three will most likely make the rotation on opening day, All three of them have question marks.

Bryse has done well here in Pittsburgh, but he needs to become more consistent and keep the ball in the park. He’s been efficient and in today’s game that can sometimes lead to dingers. I like the command, but I’d like to see him use his stuff to keep the ball on the ground a bit more.

Brubaker was a pitching machine after he wore down. Homeruns were just flying out of the park against him and much like Wilson, JT has to find a way to balance his goal of attacking hitters with protecting himself from the kind of contact he often generated. His stuff is plenty good, he just needs to place it better and his year over year performance has been impressive even with this glaring issue.

Keller is entering his most critical season as a pro. He showed some payoff for adjustments as the 2021 season wore down, but it took far too long and he simply can’t have a repeat or relapse. If Mitch can look the part, even fighting back to a .500 pitcher he could prove himself valuable.

I know I just listed a couple rookies that could factor in on the mound, but this group of three hold the keys to this being a better than average rotation or one that struggles night in and out.

Again, I’d go get a guy or two here to help lead this group, but if the GM wants to stick with what’s here, these are the three that have to step up and for one of them at least, it might be a last shot at it.

3. Improved Coaching

Sounds vague and difficult to measure right?

Show me someone improving, a pitcher, a hitter, I really don’t care, but show me something. I don’t want to watch a guy beat his head against the wall doing the same thing over and over for 5 months before finally showing signs he’s getting it. Kevin Newman and Mitch Keller were easily the poster boys for this eventuality last season. Something’s gotta give, and if indeed it was about the hitting coach who they fired or the pitching coach they chose not to, it can’t be allowed to happen again.

When your only stated intention is to “get better” it stands to reason you should well, you know, have guys actually do so.

You can count Bryan Reynolds if you want, but I saw a guy show up for Spring determined to show he had figured out his own issues. For what it’s worth, Newman looked the same, until the games started counting that is.

Mitch looked bad in Spring, looked worse in the regular season and finally after a demotion found something that worked better for him. That’s simply too long to wait to identify, and adjust issues.

If evaluating talent and helping it improve is really the goal, and we’re sticking to the fact it primarily needs to be internally done, they can’t swing and miss on the coaching.

On this front, it’s at least a little weird they haven’t hired a hitting coach yet, I mean, you’d want off season plans developed with this dude involved right? Sure would suck to have everyone working on what Derek Shelton told them to do only to have a completely new voice show up in Spring with new ideas.

Whatever happened with that coaching position, there is little doubt the team showed improvement at the plate after firing Eckstein, and no folks, it wasn’t all Yoshi.

On the mound this team has almost all young, moldable clay, so if it looks like Marin is making an ashtray out of what you wanted to be a flower pot, maybe pull the rip cord earlier.

Missing on talent happens to every team in the league, but taking too long to recognize your coaching was sub par is the easiest way to ensure you’ll see “your” guys performing well elsewhere.

4. Stars Shining Even Brighter

First of all, let’s be honest, they don’t have many you’d classify as stars. Therefore this list is of course going to be concise.

Bryan Reynolds was great in 2021, not good, great. Funny thing is, you can tell he wasn’t satisfied with himself especially at the plate. That’s what winners do, they expect more and they loath missed opportunities. I’d like to see Bryan improve on the only thing that’s really left, recognizing the down and in off speed. Last season he beat back the high fastball issue, but this one remained a bit of a bugaboo. To his credit, pitchers were so scared to leave one over the plate he ended up drawing walks just spitting on those pitches, but with a bit of increased recognition I bet he’d add another 5 homeruns by golfing a few out.

Ke’Bryan Hayes had what I’d consider to be a good rookie campaign in 2020-2021. I like ganging them together because if he started in like May or Early June that’s what his career numbers look like right now. Overall a very solid effort, but he absolutely felt the league push back and at points let his approach get a little too opposite field to maximize his power tool. I have every confidence he’ll do exactly that. I’d also be remiss to not mention the very real issue his wrist and hands were this year, but neither he or the team acknowledged it until the season was almost over, so it’s hard to go view everything through that prism after the fact. He’s got more in there, and I’d like to see him work back to the heart of the order, lead off was cute, but that’s not where he fits best if we’re being honest.

David Bednar is going to enter 2022 as the only nailed on, bullpen arm this club has, and I kinda mean that even if they sign someone because c’mon they aren’t going to get a big established guy. David needs to show up next year ready to pick up right where he left off, this time armed with a Curve he developed during the season. I’d like to see him get back to throwing 4 pitches, he may not need them all, but just having and showing them makes him even more dangerous and makes his fastball that much more explosive. It’s almost a shame this team doesn’t have anyone else you’d want to use as a closer because David is exactly the guy you want to be the bridge to winning, especially on a team where his opportunities might be limited in a closer’s role. In other words, use him, even if it’s not a save.

5. Stay on the Field

Injury is something a team like this simply can’t have. Colin Moran was fairly consistent last season, unfortunately he was also consistent about not being available. The pitching injuries I’m hoping were overly cautious moves due to dealing with the aftermath of a pandemic, but lack of depth on the mound make this extra important.

We already discussed Hayes and what he dealt with, but one thing we didn’t touch on is just how lucky they got that Jacob Stallings and Bryan Reynolds were available all year for the most part.

One injury to either of those two men and you can forget an improvement for next year, they simply don’t have the depth to survive it. When I suggest getting a veteran backup catcher and a real live MLB outfielder, it’s not because I think no prospect will step up, it’s because I fully expect the club to not get so lucky on this front next season.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-8-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, I’m back from Florida for a nice long weekend and as expected the Pirates did a bunch of actual stuff while I was gone. The business of baseball keeps going on and I’d have to imagine it feels like a store manager who has to stock Christmas Displays on December 23rd, knowing it’s about to be for naught.

Let’s dive in shall we?

1. The Black & Golden Glove

The Pirates had three finalists, and of the three Jacob Stallings was the one with a clear statistical case nobody could touch. He was outstanding and it shouldn’t be overlooked that this was done with a less than stellar pitching staff. That matters because everything is just a tick harder when your team trots through 35 or so pitchers.

So congratulations to Jake, he’s a self made winner. He has talent of course, but he’s become the absolute brick wall back there he is because he wanted to be, and worked to become it. He’s a reminder that while you look at the pool of prospects in the system and dream about future lineups, players like Stallings will find a way to emerge. As frustrating as baseball development can be, Jake is an open and shut case for practicing some patience.

As to the others, well Reynolds was the one I really thought had a shot, he was very good, Bader was too. Fear not, I see Reynolds being in this conversation just about every year, and I’ll be as blunt as possible here, if he played in left field this season he wins it.

Kevin Newman was outstanding this year. He gets to everything he should and does something with it when he gets it, but I wasn’t convinced he’s really have a shot because his Outs Above Average was so much lower than Lindor and eventual winner Crawford.

It is what it is, 3 guys as finalists and one winner is pretty incredible for a 100+ team, and a clear sign they rose above the collective. No shame in losing out to any one of their fellow finalists.

Congrats Jake for the win, congrats Kevin and Bryan for the finalist nod. Build on this, and next year pick up a nod at third base too.

2. Players in, Players out, but Much Left to Sort

Yesterday Craig wrote a great piece on the housekeeping effort by the Pirates that cleaned up the 40-man to fit the immediate need, but they aren’t done by a long shot.

The Rule 5 Draft protection date is November 19th, and the non-tender deadline is December 1st. Things are going to happen quickly here.

I’m not going to replicate Craig’s piece in this entry but the three moves that at least made me consider using the Big Ben Oh Face Gif were Wilmer Difo, Chasen Shreve and Shea Spitzbarth. Shea was named the AAA pitcher of the year, and I thought that would probably keep him on the roster, especially with obvious need in the pen. This doesn’t mean everyone they cut loose is 100% gone, but these three most likely are. Difo was a nice bench piece, but if they plan to keep Tucker, Newman, Park, Chavis, Cruz (yes Randy I know RF) and as we all know recently added Diego Castillo to the 40, there just isn’t room. I talked about this eventuality about a month ago, not specifically they’d move on from Difo, but that they simply couldn’t keep all of these guys.

Finally, Chasen Shreve who was up for arbitration and had a pretty consistent year. Again, the bullpen being an obvious problem made me feel Shreve was a no brainer retention. He’s elected free agency and while they could find a way to sign him for less than they believed he’d get in arbitration (2.3 million) chances are he’ll just find another home.

Now, just because they made these moves to clean up the 40, should in no way have you convinced this is where they’ll stop, in fact it didn’t even last 24 hours before the next move came.

Soriano had just been added back on after coming off the 60-day IL, now he has undergone a second TJ so it’s very possible he clears and the Angels don’t take him back which could lead to exactly what Ben Cherington wanted in the first place, a virtually free pitching prospect.

Buckle up buttercup, this isn’t over.

3. Well, Who is Vulnerable on the 40-man?

Oh my, well realistically everyone. That’s not to say Bryan Reynolds or Ke’Bryan Hayes should be concerned, but there is still a lot to dislike about this group.

Here are my top guys to watch as the Bucs look to continue shaping the roster.

Luis Oviedo – Yeah, I know, he just fought through an entire year as a Rule 5 pickup so of course it would be weird to cut bait now. That said, it’s hard to watch what we watched last season and see him as anywhere close to making it back to MLB, especially as a starter which seems to be the team’s intention with him. I don’t think he’s someone they want to drop, but he might be someone who simply didn’t show enough improvement with hands on coaching all season long.

Tanner Anderson – This one is potentially not fair because we weren’t exactly given much time to evaluate what he is. The 28 year old was picked up toward the end of last season and could be seen as a bullpen or rotation piece, but it’d be hard to make a case that he’s a lock for this roster.

Taylor Davis/Michael Perez – One or both of these players could go and I doubt anyone would shed a tear. In fact I’m shocked that Davis is on it right now. I’ve said before that backup catcher is a position I believe has to be upgraded, I can’t see allowing two of them to remain on the roster with what needs to happen yet.

Jared Oliva – He’s done little in MLB, and not enough in AAA. The recent pickup of Greg Allen and the likely tender of Ben Gamel make me feel Oliva will lose his spot to someone they’re more worried about losing.

Phillip Evans – I’d hate to be short here, but I can’t make sense of him being on the roster as we speak, so I see zero chance he stays on it as they continue to clean house.

Anthony Alford – If I’m Anthony, I’m not stoked that Greg Allen was picked up. He can do a lot of what Alford can, but here’s the difference, he’s already done it better. Don’t be shocked if Allen is a direct drop in replacement for Alford. This one could even happen late.

I could add Brault and Kuhl but they were, are and will be on the bubble so nothing new there.

4. What Does “Active” Mean

Talking to my podcast partner Jim Stamm in our latest Pirates Fan Forum we were parsing some recent quotes from Ben Cherington and in particular one word smacked both of us in the face, Active. Saying they planned to be active in the free agent and trade markets can sometimes be taken as a statement that the team is going to push for a real improvement, but in this case we struggled to see that as the meaning.

Feels a lot to me like they plan to do a whole lot more scouring of waivers, signings of MLB vets to show me minor league deals and potentially even some more Rule 5 choices.

The thing is here for me, I can’ t sit here and justify it again. All of those methods for player acquisition are fine, but I’d really like to see some actual, unquestioned MLB talent in here. Wanting to develop everything internally is cool, I agree most of this team will need to come from that method, but there’s something to be said for making sure the players they already have here have some support.

The Pirates may very well like 5-7 of their starting pitching options that they currently have, but none of them have much experience, at least not good experience. Sure would be nice to have those 5-7 fight for 4 spots rather than pray 5 of them earn it. I don’t think they need to go “all in” as people love to say, but can we at least go “in”?

Payroll can’t possibly be a concern. I can tell you right now spending even 40 million more won’t get them within sniffing distance of the playoffs, but somewhere along the path to relevance there must be an investment, not necessarily in an effort to play meaningful games in August, but an effort to show the guys currently on the team that you believe in them enough to invest in some help. Let’s not have Bryan Reynolds try to lift more up on his shoulders without feeling like someone is spotting him.

This team could have the exact same payroll as they did in 2021 and I wouldn’t care, so long as it’s not a cumulative effect from signing and cutting 15 different fishing expeditions versus one or two meaningful signings.

Maybe the best way I can put this, I don’t want to take any tools away from Mr. Cherington, but at some point I’ve watched you try to strip a wire with a pen knife enough times to feel it’s time to pick up the wire strippers. Eventually you might get the job done, but I have a feeling it won’t be up to code.

5. Radical Ideas

If MLB does in fact introduce the universal DH in the new CBA, would it make sense to also change the divisions? With expanded playoffs also in the mix perhaps now makes sense. Long lost rivalries like Pittsburgh – Philly were casualties of the last realignment but it feels like something could be done here. I mean there’s an entire generation of baseball fans who don’t even see the Mets as a rival of the Pirates, while some in my age group remember those early 90’s battles with the Mets as epic matchups.

Could be and should be are two different things of course, but I feel like the league could benefit from a bit of a shakeup. Just sayin’ wouldn’t it be cool if the entire division was drivable? Pirates, Jays, Reds, Indians, Tigers for instance? Just seems like now would be a good time, and it would at least shake up the expected. They could even go back to 4 big divisions, that would create 4 division winners and 2 wild cards from each which could up the chances some different clubs are involved. Point is, without the DH, there simply is no difference between the leagues, so why not think outside the box.

Next up I have an idea just for the Pirates, I’d like to see the Pirates take the early part of the season that the MiLB teams aren’t playing yet and consider having some of them travel to Pittsburgh during the first big road trip and play some exhibition games for the fans in Pittsburgh. It would be a way to get more big league only fans to get eyes on some of these guys. See Nick Gonzales hit one out in PNC instead of Altoona, even if only for a game or two. See Quinn Priester pop the mitt on an MLB mound, and if nothing else, the first time they do something on this field won’t be when they get called up. Call it the PAC (Pirates Affiliate Cup) and let them compete in a 4 squad round robin thing over 3-4 days. Engaging fans with prospects matters in a market where so much trust is lacking, the team must find a way to show fans first hand what’s being built and why it’s ok to get on board. I’d suggest this should be a free event too but that’s probably even more crazy than the idea itself.

Shorten the season by eliminating interleague play. It’s run its course at this point in my mind. Much like the first Winter Classic in hockey was fun, well, baseball needed this as a gimmick but it’s no longer special. The contrived rivalries like Cincy and Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Detroit, Tampa and Miami, Houston and Texas, they’re not real rivals and playing 4-5 games a year isn’t going to change that. It’s my belief that interleague has made events like the All Star Game and the World Series itself seem less special.

I think the season needs to revert to a shorter version and this is an easy target to eliminate some games that at the very least create unbalanced schedules.

OK, you twisted my arm, one more but it’s quick. Have local and national broadcasts use more of the new stats most people are referencing now. Show WHIP, FIP, OPS, OPS+, OOA, and more than anything, start explaining why they’re better than simple Average, Slugging and ERA. If MLB evaluators and coaches are using them, it stands to reason the common fan should be presented with them. Show a guy with an OPS over .800 and explain to the fans why that’s potentially more important or reflective of performance than the .274 average. Show a guy with a WHIP of 1.025 and show why it’s more of a picture of the pitcher than his 4.13 ERA.

Language is super important, and baseball could do itself a world of good by using the stats the teams are using in their presentations. I’m not saying throw the old stuff out, but maybe creating educated fans is on MLB too, not just people who cover it.

Pirates Perform Regular Housekeeping…And Throw In More Than Few Surprises

Based on what many Pittsburgh Pirates Fans have voiced over the past month, since their season officially came to a close on October 3rd, a pretty thorough housecleaning would be preferred over the customary tiding up of the roster that has taken place over the past couple of years; or at the very least making moves that go beyond cleansing the roster of Triple A/Quad A depth pieces, adding low risk/potential high reward waiver wire claims and pretty much letting some guys hang on until the next man up gets DFA’d or non-tendered.

Honestly, it feels like a broken record; but, if I am being fair, so does the constant upheaval on Pirates Social Media. Arguments, name calling, snide remarks and the like being tossed back and forth between fans of the team, as well as at the players themselves on occasion; with one of the latest victims of circumstance being former Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen.

As the battle raged on surrounding the viability of signing the aging veteran, and former Pirates savior, pot shots were hurled in almost every direction; most surprisingly at McCutchen himself, even though no interest was alluded to by either side. Not that I blame them, to a degree, but Pirates Fans have lost their minds.

At least wait for a rumor to surface first before you go postal.

Luckily this recent episode of civil unrest-aimed at McCutchen and each other- wouldn’t last long as a new target soon emerged for fans to assault, with misdirected contempt they almost certainly feel for the owner of the team, along with the current management group. This time around the bullseye was pointed squarely on Greg Allen, but truthfully it could have been anyone.

Each year articles are written, tweets are sent and message boards are filled with potential free agent targets that are clearly contradictory to what can be expected, and in this instance, what the GM has stated. Whether it is based on false hope, delusion, to gain clicks in agreement from the overwhelming group of detractors or just to inform the general fan as to the players that are available, expectations are obviously attached.

The recent McCutchen debacle could clearly be attached to a similar train of thought, although there is some history attached this example. However, if you ignore the ties to the Steel City it is easily to see the similarities between him and any number of free agent scenarios that have been proposed.

Tack on the acquisition of right handed pitcher Eric Hanhold and things really start to boil over. Although, if you look deeper, there are similarities between it and the acquisition of Nick Tropeano or Sam Howard in recent memory; with later being a move made by Kevan Graves as interim GM.

Following these minor transactions, the Pirates finally got around to trimming some of the fat from the roster, and maybe adding a little back on with the addition of six players from off the 60-Day IL; ultimately downsizing to the 40-man before the last minute of the actual deadline, which is progress.

Not too surprisingly Cherington and Company outrighted players like Connor Overton, Enyel De Los Santos, Kyle Keller, Chase De Jong and Shea Spitzbarth to the Minors in order to make space on the 40-man. Sure, I could have made an argument for keeping a couple of these players-especially Spitzbarth, who was named the Indianapolis Indians Pitcher of the Year-however, it’s not like I couldn’t imagine the team without them.

The bigger surprises to me were some of the players left standing; at least for the moment. Taylor Davis was a late season injury necessitated addition, Sam Howard struggled mightily in the second half of the season, Jose Soriano underwent his second Tommy John surgery, Tanner Anderson was utilized as nothing more than bullpen depth and Jared Oliva didn’t perform well, even in Triple A.

As you continue to look over the roster and recent transactions, Chasen Shreve and Wilmer Difo could be added to the list of surprises simply because many, including myself, had both as more likely than not to be tendered contracts in the arbitration process. Yet, if the plan is to keep Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman and Hoy Park, Difo’s role with the team becomes fairly nonexistent. Add in the cluster of middle infield prospects, some of whom are fairly close to cracking the roster on a more regular basis, and Difo becomes extremely expendable.

When it comes Shreve it might be something as simple as the perceived cost-an estimated $2.3 million in arbitration-versus the value of a 31 year-old bullpen arm. Being a lefty made him a little bit more intriguing, possibly as a trade piece, but obviously not enough for the Pirates to keep him around. Still, if you stack him up against say Anthony Banda, the need for him on the pitching staff clearly begins to dissipate.

Now, obviously these moves were just the first of many that will take place this off-season, as the date to add players to the 40-Man to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft (November 19th) and the tender/non-tender-aka Arbitration-deadline (December 1st) will quickly approach. So hang on tight, the Pirates and Ben Cherington are just getting started.

A McCutchen Reunion is Very Unlikely, but Why Act Like He Failed Here?

11-5-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It would be exciting for some, desperate for others, ineffective regardless, but make no mistake, even as his skills have naturally declined, he’d still have a spot here.

News, albeit expected news, broke yesterday that the Phillies were going to buy out Andrew McCutchen’s contract for 2022 in which he was going to make 15 million dollars making him a free agent.

Now, before we dive into the Pirates side of this, let’s start with Andrew. At his stage of career, it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t want to find his way to a playoff team. He’s 35, he just hit 27 homeruns, but he’s simply nowhere near the player he was. He can help a team, but in a starter’s role, well, lets just say a playoff team probably isn’t looking to him to start.

If playing time was more important to him, ok, a team like Pittsburgh could probably offer plenty. They aren’t alone, plenty of teams out there would like that power infusion and despite his .222 batting average, he walked enough to keep the OBP at .334, so it’s not like he’s a dead stop in the lineup.

It makes sense for a lot of reasons. You can’t tell me there’s a world where you think he’s not at least as good as Ben Gamel, or better than Anthony Alford. Honesty is honesty though, a 1.3 WAR is only slightly above replacement player level.

He is what he is, a 35 year old, serviceable player who has more to give, but his best is FAR behind him at this point.

Now, it has to be noted Jason Mackey has reported there isn’t really much, if any, interest from the Pirates, so most of this conversation is moot.

That hasn’t stopped fans from hammering Cutch online, and this, well, this mystifies me.

People can say what they want, this isn’t some freedom of speech attack, lord knows we aren’t a society that is seeing everything eye to eye today. This is more confusion for me.

Here’s a guy who came to the Pirates with huge expectation, and delivered. 5 All Star Nods, won the MVP and was in the running 4 times. Signed here for much less than he could have gotten if he chose to just ride it out because for some reason winning was important to him, and more importantly for Pirates fans, wanted to win HERE.

He did, he just didn’t win it all.

Traded in the off season following 2017, the Pirates clearly got the best Cutch had to offer. He played his best brand of baseball here. In other words, and with the benefit of hindsight because of the success of Bryan Reynolds, the Pirates played the McCutchen card flawlessly.

So what’s not to like?

He struggled in 2016, and 2017. That’s really it. He didn’t play like the MVP candidate we’d all come to expect and love in those two seasons. Neal Huntington lovers bleat about this all the time, see when most fans talk about how Neal and Bob sold the team down the river after 2015 the defenders love to remind us that Andrew and Neil Walker didn’t play their best either. They like to make sure you remember Starling Marte got pinged for PEDs too, well, as long as you’re not trying to explain why Cutch was possessive of center field. Cutch was moved for the superior defender, who happened to be doing drugs to play better. I’ll give him a pass for being indignant in this case.

Cutch and Walker had some less than kind words for how the Pirates handled things after 2015 too, but was it really any different than Jameson Taillon in 2019 being disappointed the business of baseball is what it is in some markets?

In my mind, a couple things going on here. First, fans just know he isn’t coming back, long before Jason Mackey all but confirmed the reality. So they brace themselves. Just like I used to tell my wife the new Lexus SUVs were ugly 10 years ago, I’m not getting one, and sometimes it’s nicer to make sure people don’t think I wanted one.

I also think genuinely, we did get the best he had to offer. So why bring back a shell of Cutch? Thing is, the numbers he put up would be fine if he repeated them, but they would also not be the Cutch we remember or would assume he’d be. In other words, another market might be happy with what he is, this one might not.

That said, this man did very good things here, very much so meant a lot to this franchise and I see no reason to punt on him at this stage. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t point out his very real decline, doesn’t mean we have to pretend everything he touched turned to gold here, but maybe we don’t need to pretend his legacy is one of failure and despair.

He embraced this community, embraced most of the fans, and put this franchise on his shoulders, willingly. We praise Mike Tomlin for saying he wants volunteers rather than hostages, well, here was a volunteer, and for me, he’s forever a bright spot in the middle of some very dark periods of Pirates baseball. I’m not anxious to pretend he was anything less, even if it protects my feelings.

Sometimes, it’s ok to just be ok. It’s ok to just leave Cutch as a happy memory, and not believing he is a needed or even good fit at this point shouldn’t mean revising history or embellishing it to make sure it doesn’t.

MLB Needs to Take an Honest Look at the Product They’re Selling

11-3-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I mean, I could easily write a similar piece swapping MLB for “The Pirates” up there in the headline and go off too. I’m quite sure I will in the coming months, but right now, in the immediate moment following the World Series, we really need to talk about the product that is MLB.

I want to touch on some subjects in this piece that I feel baseball needs to in some form or fashion pay attention to, because it’s undeniable this game isn’t as popular as it used to be. Money isn’t everything, actual enthusiasm and engagement matters too.

Let’s dig in. Some I’ll offer solutions for, some I’ll just put out as conversation starters (AKA I can’t conceive a thought as to how to address it, but it’s a problem)

Competitive Balance

People will often show you the charts for how long it’s been since MLB had a repeat champion as evidence this already exists, I of course don’t share that take.

Now, I’ve made pretty clear, I believe a salary cap/floor system with true revenue sharing ala NFL/NHL/NBA would be best for the health of the game on a national level but we also must not pretend that it means every team would be competitive.

The cap leagues have terrible franchises too. Arizona in the NHL has seemingly never really figured out how to build a team and they’ve done almost just as poorly even finding a place to play in their state. The New York Jets have just failed repeatedly to gain traction. And I’m not going to pretend to be a big enough NBA fan to really detail any one team but from the outside it sure has been a while since I heard anything about the Pacers so I’d assume they don’t win a bunch.

Point is, a system like that doesn’t guarantee every team actually knows what they’re doing or make good decisions, it just guarantees one reason you suck isn’t that you are incapable of competing financially. There are also geographic realities to deal with, and I’m not going to get into putting down any other cities in our great country but let’s face it, some are nicer than others. When you even the playing field those are the types of things that become decision makers.

The perks offered by some teams are selling points. As a Pens fan you’ll often hear players come in and when asked why they chose Pittsburgh they’ll always say the Fans and all that other hockey player feel good stuff, but they want to play with the living legend (who this market can afford to keep for life because of the system) and a “First Class Organization”. They’re talking about the travel accommodations, the nutrition program, the training facilities, the family perks. There are still ways to win that don’t hit the official “cap” books.

Yes, back to the point about no repeated World Series winners…

True, it’s a hard league to win. But quick, without looking at Fangraphs or the like, who will be in it next season?

It’s going to be a very similar list if we all were to shout in unison. Every couple years an outlier or team that successfully did what Cherington hopes to accomplish gets their shot. It’s not to say it can’t be done, it’s just a simple fact it’s far harder for some. What if you flipped on the Summer Olympics and two runners lined up for a hurdle race side by side. The runner for the US against someone from Canada. Now say based on their country’s GDP the richer of the two got to remove a hurdle for every 100 Billion more they had.

Sure Canada could still win, maybe that runner is just that good they can overcome having 2 or 3 hurdles that the US runner doesn’t have to contend with. Maybe the US runner sees that path with less hurdles and throttles back a bit not unlike the tortoise and the hare.

Not fair right? Kinda hard to argue. Now imagine it’s just always been that way, your entire life, and you sit down to watch, suddenly the US has no advantage anymore. You’d be an LA or NY fan hearing Cap chatter.

Cap or No, you’re lying to yourself, or minimally defining Competitive Balance differently than I to see this as a non issue. League needs to do something here. Doesn’t have to be a cap, but admitting there is a problem would be at least intellectually honest.

Length of Games

Baseball doesn’t have a clock, it’s unique, it’s part of the charm, it’s also something that makes it just as likely you sit down for 2:30 or 5:00.

1987 is the first time MLB exceeded 2:50 for average length of a nine inning game. It’s risen just about every year since peaking in 2021 with 3:11. The average game time in this World Series was 3:41.

Now, the games started at 8:00 EST, so this time of year that’s 5:00 on the West Coast. Initially as a lifelong East Coaster who travels regularly to the West, this is a problem. I can sit here and tell you the games should start earlier because kids can’t stay up that late, but that’s not true on the West coast is it? The NFL seems to have found a sweet spot for the Super Bowl, but let’s face it, that’s akin to a National Holiday. I know right now the Super Bowl is on February 13th at 6, I can plan it, I can move my schedule around to make it fit. I can’t even tell you what month next year’s World Series will end.

Regardless of that issue, asking people to sometimes sit down to watch 4 hours of anything in this day and age isn’t as easy to do as it might have been a couple decades ago. There are far more options at people’s fingertips and making the game more digestible simply has to be addressed.

So, how do you shorten the games?

The most popular targets are pitch clocks and a general “stop pissing around hitters and stay in the box” which might be a hard rule to target. Pitch clocks have been tried. In 2015 MLB instituted a 20-second clock in AA and AAA and game time was decreased by 12 minutes. When removed games increased in length for 2016 and 2017 but still were faster than 2014 before the experiment. So this teaches us a couple things, one, it works, a little and possibly more importantly, it stuck even without a rule in place to a degree, I take that as proof it wasn’t too heavy of a lift for the players to accommodate. The clock would have to cause batters to stay in the box too, can’t put all the onus on the guy throwing if the batter is preventing the pitch from being thrown.

I’d also like to see no more than one timeout per at bat and to simply make it a rule batters have to stay in the box. This doesn’t need to be as complicated as people will make it, I’m not talking about a penalty for swinging out of your shoes and falling, or taking a foul off your ankle, just in the course of a normal at bat, stand and swing big guy.

I don’t think the technology is ready quite yet, but automated strike zones would in my mind create less nibbling and more hitters ready to swing, that could help right? Might help another issue too, more on that later.

They’ve tried to limit mound visits but they need to do more. From the 7th on even with a restriction in place it’s rare to see 2 batters in a row without at least a catcher walking out.

I should also throw in here, it’s not all on the pitchers taking so long, these teams are shifting in between almost every pitch. This is so much more apparent in stadium as opposed to TV. When Jim Stamm and I were at Oneil Cruz’ debut at PNC, we noticed in one at bat the defense shifted 6 times facing friggin’ Ben Gamel. I mean if Ben Gamel requires that kind of silliness, imagine Juan Soto. The pitcher often stands there on TV appearing to be watching signs for 25 seconds, but what you don’t see is the position coaches moving and adjusting every player on the field sometimes. And that’s even with their silly little analytics cards in their back pocket. Add in a “slow” pitcher and you have sometimes a full minute between pitches, which let’s face it is simply not what this game was intended to look like. Much like the success of the New Jersey Devils in the 90’s NHL, it may work, but it’s killing the game.

More Action!

Homeruns are cool as hell, so are strikeouts. Nobody wants to eliminate either from the game, hey toss walks in here, might as well address all three of the true outcomes right?

Baseball has evolved to a point where not only are teams shifting to make it a reasonable play to try for dingers rather than a single, pitchers are more apt to hunt strikeouts based on that knowledge. Chicken or the egg here? Point is they fit hand in glove. Pitchers are pitching to the approach, defenders are playing to force the approach, the approach sucks for the game.

As I referenced earlier, I think eventually automated strike zones could help with this issue to a degree. Hitters will adjust to a rigid strike zone, they’ll practice it, they’ll hone in on it, they’ll not have to waste a couple at bats learning it every game and I think it’ll lead to more swings. If they make the zone 3D which they’d almost have to, some really talented pitchers will figure out how to throw a ball that looks like it’s going to hit your knee and cuts over the very back of the inside corner so it’s not like this is a completely one sided effect.

I don’t think you can ban shifting, after all it’s been part of the game forever, we used to call it shading. I’d like to think hitters will take care of this one by taking what’s given to them with more regularity, but it’s been years, and honestly, it’s not a skill set everyone possesses.

Some do, Bryan Reynolds gets shifted but not like some do. He’s shown he can and will hit the ball to all fields and for the most part he gets played straight up but that’s ok, they’d primarily prefer walking him anyhow.

Again, this isn’t and shouldn’t be illegal, but it’s pretty clear it’s overused. It’s also impossible to deny it works more than it doesn’t. As I referenced earlier, so did the New Jersey Trap.

Hockey fundamentally changed their game to combat it, by removing the 2 line offside pass, meaning the entire neutral zone was now ok to pass to. This brought on the era of “cherry picking” (Mario was so good at this) which also wasn’t great for your goalie at times, but the point is the league fundamentally changed the actual rink and meanings of the lines to beat it.

The NFL had to create Mel Blount rules to combat the way he defended the pass. The Hines Ward rule eliminating blind side blocks initiated with the helmet were a direct response to something one player (and eventually offenses everywhere) were doing to create an advantage.

It’s not unprecedented in sports to rule out things that are hurting the game, even if it’s just for the fans or unfairly skews to the benefit of one side of the game.

I’m Sure There Are More

I could go on, and it wouldn’t be that hard. Starting Pitchers going deeper into games, The running game being all but eliminated from the game, Interleague play may have run it’s course, and so on and so on. This is where I’d like to hear from you, what are your top changes baseball needs to make? Focus on fan engagement and what the game needs to do to be more of appointment TV rather than quickly finding a highlight package 10 minutes after the game ends.

This is our game, and we shouldn’t be afraid to tell MLB how they should make it better.