Winter Meetings Primer – Two Guys Talkin’ Trades

11-3-21 – By Joe Boyd & Justin Verno – @Joe_Boyd11 & JV_PITT on Twitter

Justin Verno – The World Series is over and the 2021 baseball season along with it has concluded, but for us Bucco fans, the fun is just getting started as the Winter Meetings are coming, starting Sunday, December the 5th and culminating on Thursday the 9th with the Rule Five Draft. And while Joe and I agree the “sell off phase” of the rebuild is predominantly over, the Bucs moved a lot at the MLB trade deadline (I still maintain this should be a national holiday). There’s still some work they can do here, and if the trade deadline is any indicator of the kind of movement we could see, these might be exciting Winter Meetings. Joe?

Joe Boyd – Yep, my joke is always to say that the Bucco season ends on 31 July, and the offseason begins right around now.  We can discuss the myriad actions in front of Cherington and we can potentially estimate some arbitration numbers.  But the crux of our articles revolve around trades and similar transactions.  It is my understanding that Cherington believes that he’ll be busy in December, so now’s a great time to look at the landscape and see what might be out there. 

JV – If you’ve taken a peek at some of the 21 trade deadline articles Joe and I put together, you have an understanding of what we are looking at here. Here’s a link to the first article we put out there and in it is an explanation of how we got these trade estimates. 

Just a reminder: Joe and I didn’t invent the wheel here, we just love getting the conversation going. And as I am often reminded by Twitter, “You can’t possibly know what the Pirates are thinking.” We aren’t claiming to have inside knowledge, just looking at the value of the player they could be trading and the type of return we could see based on those values. 

Joe and I have talked and settled on a list of names we feel are names to watch at the Meetings. (No, Hayes isn’t going anywhere.) Some of these guys make sense to move, some the timing is right, and a few are names that popped up over the trade deadline so we think it’s likely the names will surface again. Joe, let’s start with the least likely players to get moved and finish up with the more likely. Sound like a plan?

Player – Bryan Reynolds

Why him?- Jon Heyman and Rob Biertempfel said teams made offers and the Pirates listened.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/09/braves-brewers-made-pirates-big-time-offers-for-bryan-reynolds.html

JV – A lot of people will claim this is clickbait material, and I’m not so sure  we completely disagree with that, but the Buccos appearing to have at least listened means we have to cover the possibility.

JB – I think that we’ve mentioned in our Reynolds article that the deal would have to be a Godfather offer.  In fact, we lean more towards extending Reynolds to prop open the window for contention.  If that Heyman tweet is to be taken at face value, then Cherington is doing things the proper way.  For those of you that play Fantasy Football, and your buddy wants Derrick Henry for a bench warmer… you counter with Derrick Henry for his entire starting lineup.  Of course you have a price for your top trade chip, but it has to be astronomical.

Player – Jacob Stallings

JV – Why him? There were reports that the Marlins and Bucs talked at the deadline and that Stallings is a Kim Ng target in the offseason. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/marlins-to-seek-catching-help-in-offseason.html

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article254658327.html

JB – The next least likely (does that make sense?) to be traded is  Jacob Stallings.  We have touched on Stallings, too.  I was a proponent for moving Stallings at the time.  However, I think that that ship has sailed for a few reasons.  Most importantly, I believe the team should start to look for improvements and should see an uptick in ROI in the 2022 season.  Stallings provides stability and makes the pitching staff better.  If he were to move, you don’t have a clear replacement in the pipeline any time soon.  He will celebrate his 32nd birthday in December, and at this point, he has to have more value to the club than the return. 

JV – Stallings’ value goes beyond his glove and framing. He carries a good enough bat and had no passed balls this year, but his true value is his overall work with the pitching staff-it’s like having another pitching coach behind the dish. 

I’ve caught some heat talking to friends both in real life and on Twitter for this, but this is an area I disagree with Joe on. I fully get the value Stallings brings to the table and I bet there are other GM’s out there that could be willing to pay for it. Take advantage of that and put a finishing touch on your rebuild. This will require an overpay, so it won’t be an easy task and I put it 50/50 at best Cherington can get it done, so in the end I see Stallings behind the plate at PNC Park this year. (Cherington should seek a 50 FV player as a headliner to get this done.)

Player – David Bednar

Why him? Ken Rosenthal reported the Bucs were listening on him and a few others, including Stratton and Rodriguez.

JB – Bednar is next, he finished the season with 1.2 WAR over 60 innings, with 11.42 K/9 he feels like a future high-leverage, back of the bullpen piece.  I will say that he is more likely to move simply due to the volatility of the bullpen.  But, he’s also a local kid and we know the fans love a local kid.  

JV – Bednar is controlled through 2027 and I just can’t see the sense in moving him, Joe. But again, there were reports and those reports mentioned that his name came up and they listened. There are different kinds of “listened” when it comes to trade talks. There’s the kind of listening because a GM does his due diligence, the kind where a GM listens and puts a price on a player that makes the player “untouchable,” and then there are meat and potatoes talks. This is the one that really matters, as names are exchanged and deals are usually reached. 

I think all three are represented here. I think Stallings is a guy Cherington will actively engage in. If the right package is discussed, I won’t be surprised to see him off to another city. Bednar, to me, is the due diligence talk–too much control to move. And Reynolds is the guy who’s untouchable because Cherington would need the moon and stars to move him, but I won’t be shocked if we hear his name the most in early December. 

Joe, now onto the next batch?

Player – Ben Gamel

JB – Gamel put together a nice season for the Pirates this year, and there is quite a bit of value in being a consistent outfielder for this club.  But he’s entering his final year of arbitration, so there’s obviously a price here that Cherington would be willing to authorize a deal.  Gamel can benefit the team by staying or being moved, which is a nice problem to have. 

JV – An interesting candidate. One year of control, so this would make sense, to listen to Gamel. There will be plenty of OF out there in free agency, but to a team that wants a cost control player, he could be a name to watch.

Player – Colin Moran

JB – Moran has two years of arbitration remaining, so he is not going to be one of the pieces to build around.  He is limited defensively, so he may be best suited for a DH role.  He is not going to command a huge return, but a move may be best for both parties. 

JV – Fans will push back that the Buccos should wait until his value goes up. I’m just not sure that waiting will help that. Moran can play 1B, 3B and perhaps even 2B in a pinch on top of having a few innings in the OF. He is a capable starter at 1B with some pop and control, but DH is likely where he ends up at some point down the line. 

Player – Kevin Newman/Cole Tucker

JB – I’m lumping these two together for simplicity.  I’m thinking the ship has sailed for both of these former first rounders.  Both are pretty slick with the glove but just don’t have the bat to hold up.  Could you keep one of them as a versatile bench piece?  Certainly, but moving them would make more sense.  Tucker may have a bit of value, but I wouldn’t expect either to bring back anything exciting. 

JV – Why Newman? His name surfaced at the deadline, to the surprise of everybody. Newman could make sense for teams for two reasons: a contender looking for a guy who can play 3B, SS and 2B, can run the bags and carries a good glove. The other thought here is a change of scene guy for a team that could take a flier on a guy with control. Side note- with his speed, I can see him adding an outfielders glove to his bag.)

Player – Chris Stratton

JV – Why him? For two reasons. There are only two years of control with Straton; he won’t be here when they are “scheduled” to win. And his name surfaced at the deadline.  

On top of that, Straton likely represents the best return out of all the relievers in the “barn.”

JB – Stratton had a pretty solid season statistically.  He has always been one of my favorites on the roster as he could be stretched out to be a fireman or pitch in high leverage situations. He has just wicked spin rates too.  He’s of value to many of the analytically inclined clubs, for sure. 

Player – Sam Howard/Chasen Shreve

JV – LH pitching is always a need, so this makes keeping an eye on these two a pair to watch. Banda could fall into this category, but here’s to guessing that the Bucs are looking to hold on as he is still a pre-arb player. 

Shreve is a free agent after the ‘22 season, making this a smart bet. And if not in this offseason, I would imagine he’ll be a name to watch come the ‘22 trade deadline. 

Howard has three years of arbitration left and could be an attractive, inexpensive LH for teams looking to keep the payroll down. 

JB – Howard started the season pretty hot, but fell off a cliff.  Perhaps a team is willing to throw a dart at the wall and get him for a relatively low value?

Looking Ahead

JB – There is bound to be considerable churn on this roster and it should look quite different on opening day 2022.  The 40-man roster crunch will create a lot of movement this offseason and we’re going to be here to chat about it and look at the value in all of these moves (and more!).  So I’ll leave it there for Justin to take us home. 

JV – These are some of the more predictable names we should hear come December. I have a feeling we could see a lot of movement in general from the Pirates at those meetings. We’ve already seen Cherington move Jamison Taillon before pitching an inning after his second TJS, so we know he isn’t shy from pulling a trigger on a deal that seems far-fetched. With that in mind, I wouldn’t take Steven Brault or Chad Kuhl off the poker table here. And, there’s a lot of Rule 5 guys they need to make decisions on before November 19th. I think it’s possible we could see one or two of them moved in a deal. It should be a busy Winter Meetings so grab the popcorn and a cold beer. It should be fun to watch.

Next up – A closer look at Bryan Reynolds trade value.

Is The Outfield Depth In The Pirates Organization An Illusion?

11-2-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

Since taking over as the Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager in November of 2019, Ben Cherington’s Open Day Lineups in the outfield have consisted of Bryan Reynolds in Left, Gregory Polanco/Guillermo Heredia in Right and Jarod Dyson/Anthony Alford in Center. In the last game of the 2020 shortened season the Pirates trotted out the trio of JT Riddle, Reynolds and Jose Osuna. Just a few weeks ago it was Alford, Ben Gamel and Yoshi Tsutsugo that roamed the grass at PNC Park; with Reynolds getting an off day before an extended number of off days, as the team put a cap on a 101 loss season.

Obviously, the outfield hasn’t been the only area of concern for the Pirates over the past two seasons; however, outside of Reynolds there hasn’t been a whole lot of progress filling the voids on either side of the rising star. During this time Pittsburgh has tried 15 different players in outfield beyond the ones already mentioned; 12 of whom took the field just this past year.

Things have gotten so bad that Ben Gamel seen as a lock/must have at $2.9 in arbitration; not that I disagree with the sentiment. Still, it’s not like a player with a -.3 WAR, 1.2 fWAR, 101 wRC+, 104 OPS+, -8 DRS and -9 OAA is one that you should clamor for and/or be satisfied with. He simply played better than the alternatives, which truly wasn’t hard.

Nevertheless, this isn’t about Gamel, as he is purely a placeholder until the first wave of prospects arrive on the scene; or so we have been told.

Now, as a fan of watching prospects develop I have been conditioned to be cautiously optimistic about the potential of players within the Pirates Minor League System; as well as those outside the organization. Merely listing off the names of prospects at specific positions down on the farm, does little to spark optimism within a portion of the Pirates Fanbase; and honestly I can’t blame them. Personally, I have a little more confidence in the ability of Cherington’s people than I did in the ones under previous regime, but this shouldn’t be confused with blind faith.

Next year in Triple-A Indianapolis the Pirates could have an outfield that consists of Travis Swaggerty, Canaan Smith-Njigba, and Cal Mitchell; along with Bligh Madris, Jared Olivia and/or Chris Sharpe as potential holdovers. Between those in the first group (Swaggerty, Smith-Njigba and Mitchell), they have a grand total of 85 plate appearances at the highest level of the Minors. As far as Double-A Altoona is concerned, Matthew Fraizer, Jack Suwinski and Lolo Sanchez might lead the way for the Curve. Further down in the system, other prospects like Hudson Head, Sammy Siani, Jack Herman, Lonnie White, Jr., Rodolfo Nolasco and Shalin Polanco exist.

Many of these players have potential in the form of the often referenced future value, much like plenty of former prospects before them; who to this point have resulted in the aforementioned Bryan Reynolds and his matching voids to either side. Which is probably part of the reason(s) why some are still championing for Oneil Cruz to move to right field, or regularly referencing Ji-Hwan Bae’s work in center in the Arizona Fall League.

Some may agree with this assertion because it is how they view prospects, while others may see it as me going to the dark side due to some unexpected pessimism.

Truthfully it’s just an opinion, and how I perceive the current situation. It won’t stop me from continuing to provide information on prospects because it’s part of what I love about this great game.

However, I won’t try to change anyone’s perception concerning how this will all work out in the end. By now we should all recognize that a person’s perception is their reality, which is something that is not easily altered.

And of course, all of us will windup being at least a little bit wrong once the actual reality arrives; with a lot of time wasted in the midst of a fight with no clear winner.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

11-1-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Good afternoon everyone and Happy November! The News is slow, kinda like we’ve been saying it would be, so I certainly won’t sit here and pretend it’s a shock. Still plenty to talk about so let’s get started.

1. Expanded Playoffs a Good Idea?

On the surface it seems like an easy way to get more teams, and let’s face it, more teams who have to play the window game, into the dance where anything could happen.

Hard to not be for that right?

Well, here are a couple counterpoints. First, It’s November 1st, and tomorrow will be game 6 of the World Series. There was a time when going up against an NFL regular season matchup made sense, today, the NFL is king. Now, if you’re reading this, chances are you either really like me, or really love baseball so I could see this point not really landing with you, but think about it from a much bigger scale.

The World Series was on last night and I’d bet more people saw a backup starter for the Cowboys than Adam Duvall hit that Grand Slam in fact most saw it on Twitter rather than live.

The point is, I’m not sure intentionally making this go even deeper into the year is wise. We also shouldn’t discount how poorly baseball translates to cold weather.

No, not that Fall crisp in the air, I’m talking cold. Snow, wind, hoodies, numb fingers. Every contact with the bat stings. These aren’t baseball concepts, certainly not where you want 162 regular season games and 3-4 rounds of playoffs to determine a champion.

The other counter is it’s an obvious mask. An attempt to placate the little guys and keep them quiet for a bit longer.

And don’t get me wrong, if the Pirates are in it, we’re all watching. Again if you are reading this on a Steelers Victory Monday after beating Cleveland, you aren’t someone MLB should be worried about losing as a viewer, but look at the national media. Baseball largely ended to them 3 weeks ago.

To me, I’d like to see the regular season cut back by 10-12 games in exchange. If pitcher health is really as big a concern as we’ve had portrayed, this should be an easy negotiation.

Where do you all come down on this? I think this is priority number one for the owners so it’s pretty safe it’s going to happen.

2. Holy Hell! You Mean Other Teams Want Bryan Reynolds?!

Since last Spring the baseball world has believed the Pirates were looking to, or more accurately, should be looking to move Bryan Reynolds.

Let’s say Ben Cherington just got the job, like right now. The minor league system is still somewhere in the mid to high teens. They’ve had some draft picks so it improved a bit but most of the moves we’ve seen were either not made or made for less prospect return.

Maybe.

Maybe then the Pirates would look to move a player like this. Not now.

These stories come from a couple places. One, Teams of course want a player like Bryan, he’s awesome. If you read most of these stories they’re little more than someone reporting that Team A checked in with the Pirates about what it would take to get Reynolds. In most cases you won’t hear who the Pirates said would have to be included, in some cases you’ll hear an outrageous ask that essentially says NOPE.

The other place it comes from is the national baseball writers who honestly have no understanding of what is happening in a market like this. To them (and sadly some of you) this is nothing more than an assumption that the Pirates want to trade everyone who makes any money. No regard for years of control. No regard for intention to extend. No regard for the building swell of prospects behind him. Just a belief that he’s good and should be on one of their preferred teams.

I don’t blame reporters for reporting it. It’s a story when this stuff leaks. Just don’t jump up and down worrying about it. Of course teams want a good young player. I bet they asked about Hayes too, probably Jake. Hey, I bet teams have asked about Wander Franco too!

This team has let you down, I get it, me too. This just isn’t a thing, not yet. If he isn’t extended by next off season, ok, open your ears.

3. What’s Going on With the NL Central?

Every team has questions, let’s look at some of what these teams face.

Cardinals – For arbitration they don’t have much drama, Jack Flaherty is projected to pull in 5.1 million, Harrison Bader around 3.7. On the surface I’d say that’s more than I’d want to pay for Bader on the open market but maybe I’m thinking like a Pirates fan. Flaherty they actually took to arbitration last year and he by all accounts won. They clearly can’t afford to lose him, this could be the year they shoot for an extension. The other main concern is does Nolan Arenado use his player option for 35 million? I can’t see a world where he doesn’t, but until he does it’s a question. I’d imagine Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez at 18.5 and 17 respectively on club options will be allowed to walk.

Cubs – Wilson Contreras is in the last year of arbitration, projected to get around 6.65 million. Being the team just moved toward a rebuild, you could see them potentially moving him or being that he’s still relatively young they could work out an extension and build around him. Might be a tough choice here, but this decision will tell whether the Cubs see themselves as at the beginning of the rebuild or still in the tear down mode. Ian Happ has two years left of arbitration and at 4.1 million he’s eminently affordable which again, makes him an attractive movable piece.

When it comes to pending free agents well, they traded all of them that really matter. Finding someone to take Jason Heyward and his 24.5 million both in 2022 and 2023 off their books simply isn’t going to be an easy sell, but they could find a buyer for Kyle Hendricks at 14 even though he’s signed through 2024 where it rises to 16, might be a bit rich but doable. I don’t see them trying to buy their way back into contention this season, but stranger things have happened.

Reds – For arbitration they have a laundry list. Luis Castillo is in year 2 of arb and he’ll net 7.6 or so, Amir Garrett will require 2.2, Jesse Winker at 6.8, and on and on. Most of these they almost have to pick up. Now here’s where Cincy get’s interesting. Nick Castellanos has a player option for 16 million, and man, after the season he had, I don’t know how he could not execute his out. He could get far more on the open market, it’s just not even a question. Wade Miley has a 10 million dollar club option that they really should pick up if only to trade him. Tucker Barnhart at 7.5 on a club option is another they simply don’t have a better answer for. This is really going to come down to can the Reds sustain that payroll again in 2022. That question not only answers who they retain it answers how much they can add. To me, best case scenario they’re a similar team to 2021.

Brewers – Arbitration is going to hit hard this year. Josh Hader (super 2) is in year 3 of 4 and scheduled to get around 10 million. No brainer they have to tender him, but I could see them deal him too. Brandon Woodruff sits at 7.1 and he’s kinda a lynch pin. Omar Narvaez took a pay cut to avoid being non-tendered last year, and he answered the bell in 2021, this year he won’t be taking a cut, expect him to net at least 4 million.

Corbin Burnes is just entering arbitration and he’ll net around 4. Willy Adames who the Brewers acquired from the Rays and really played well for the Crew hits his first year of arb and already will require around 4. Eric Lauer is one of the most trusted arms on the team and and probably makes the rotation next season, he’ll get around 2.7. There are still so many more, this could get messy.

Free agent wise, they’ve got a couple player option guys, Avisail Garcia and Jackie Bradly Jr., now if I’m Mr. Bradly, I take my 9.5 million and smile. Garcia on the other hand at 12 at least has potential to be a bargain.

It’s a team that legit spends what they can, and raises for this many players simply can’t happen. Expect some moves that have folks scratching their head, I’d start with a Hader move.

4. Fix One Problem, Cause Another

This is largely what happens with every CBA negotiation. Here’s an example.

Stated Problem: Service Time Manipulation

Offered Solution from Players: Just stop doing it, eliminate the Super 2 clause.

Offered Solution from Owners: Let’s change this to 29.5 being the free agent age with a capped pool for arbitration figures league wide (aka cap)

The most concise way I can put this, Arron Judge would be a free agent now, and Vlad Jr. would be stuck for 10 years.

Simple example of how these things work.

When you hear leaks from these negotiations, be very aware of the subtle differences in language. A proposal isn’t a real proposal unless it’s a final offer. These are all just things being floated, usually by one side or another to make a point about the intensions of the other side. For instance, this one almost assuredly came from the players, because it’s so far off the mark it easily paints a picture of owners trying to keep cheap players cheap.

The young stars that hit free agency in their 20’s are the best way to raise the salaries across the league, this proposal would take that sort of thing off the table.

Nothing remotely close to this will happen, but you’ll hear things like this for the next month or two. I say this so you don’t waste time doing a bunch of math to see what the Pirates would look like in 2028 under this system.

5. Why Aren’t We Covering the Arizona Fall League?

Man, for one thing, others will do a much better job covering the day to day of games I can’t watch or stream. I’d also say I’m much more interested in the complete work than the day to day.

Canaan Smith-Njigba, Ji-hwan Bae, Nick Gonzales, Carmen Mlodzinski, Bear Bellomy, Michael Burrows and Roansy Contreras are all playing for the Peoria Javelinas.

We’re talking the smallest of small sample sizes here, nobody on the club has even reached 50 at bats, 11 innings is the team lead. The numbers for Pirates prospects overall look great, but there just isn’t much to be read into here.

Sometimes you’ll hear about a guy playing a position he never has, or a starter being used as a reliever but nothing earth shattering. This is simply a good place for players who were nicked up and need more innings or at bats to “complete their course” if you will.

I’d say when it’s over we’ll have some observations but right now they’d just be reactionary takes based on a good or bad game here or there. Stay healthy, keep growing, put in the work, that’s really what this is not a proving ground to ensure a promotion.

For instance, Carmen Mlodzinski has pitched in 3 games, totaling 4.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA. That doesn’t do anything for me, and it isn’t to diminish what he’s done, it’s just to say this isn’t something I personally think needs broken down into even smaller bite sized morsels. If you can’t help yourself and really need that type of coverage, none better than John Dreker, check out his work.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Are Merely Existing At The Moment

10-31-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

Your Pittsburgh Pirates last took the field a full four weeks ago from today-October 31st, which means Happy Halloween!-after a nightmare (pun intended) of a season. Since that time it has been near radio silence, outside of some Minor League Awards being announced. In a way, it’s been like the Major League Club has ceased to exist.

That was until a couple of days ago, when Cherington came out of hibernation long enough to tell us that we will have a minimum of 5 days at this point until the start of free agency, that the third base coach-as well as the Triple A Manager-will more than likely be filled internally and interviews to fill the vacant hitting coach position have started to take place; but only with candidates that aren’t currently with a team.

When it comes to free agency, Ben alluded to making the same types of signings we have seen from the Pirates each of the past two off-seasons; much like I concluded on the most recent episode of Bucs In The Basement , and Gary wrote about in a recent Pirates 5 Thoughts At 5. Yeah, they are having a “dialogue” with Yoshi and his people; but in all honesty, why wouldn’t they? No other team can negotiate with him now anyway. Might as well toss around some numbers to gauge if they in the same ballpark, or a little too far apart thanks to his breakout month in Pittsburgh; which truthfully, I’m not totally sold on.

As I have mentioned before, in his first time facing the Pirates NL Central Foes-the Reds and Cubs-Yoshi went 9 for 25, which works out to a .360 AVG; all while smacking 3 homers, drawing 3 walks and only striking out on 5 occasions. The second time around he managed only 4 hits in 24 at bats-good for a .167 AVG-with 0 homers, 2 walks and 10 strike outs. Both obviously being small sample sizes, but somewhat telling in what these two ball clubs were able to pick up concerning Tsutsugo’s tendencies in a short period of time.

Just something to consider concerning the only real bit of news to come from the Pirates Office; or at least the only information fans seem to be receptive to.

Now this, as we all know, is the calm before the storm, with more than just posturing, presumptions, predictions and projections set to take place. Real, honest to goodness roster moves are on the way. Ones that some teams have chosen to spread out over the past month; while the Pirates on the other hand, have not made a Major League Transaction since the 5th of October. Sure, they don’t necessarily have to make any moves prior to the official start of the MLB off-season, just like they don’t have to hire coaching replacements yet; still, it’s kind of frustrating not to have any definitive movement on any front.

Other teams have started to trim the fat off their rosters-of which the Pirates have plenty-in preparation for their impending 40-Man Roster Crunches. Apparently, Cherington and his brain trust did meet for a few days this past week to discuss general roster construction and possible decisions concerning Rule 5 eligible players; so I guess, there’s that. Although, when I think about it, I genuinely don’t know why I am being so impatient.

Maybe it’s the choices concerning Rule 5 and Arbitration finally being made, after talking about them for so long. Maybe it’s the month with any Pirates news. Or, maybe-and most likely-it’s the ever approaching eye of the storm, that arrives on December 1st; with all the uncertainty and anxiety that will certainly surround it.

At this moment, every ball club in the Majors will virtually disappear from the landscape as MLB and the MLBPA take their spots at center stage.

For how long. and to what end? No one knows. Therein lies the true nightmare.

Pirates Middle Infield, Many Options, Zero Locks

10-30-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

When I think about all the things the Pirates have to make decisions on this off season, I keep coming back to all the variables they have in the Middle Infield. It’s a different problem than they had last off season, and they purposefully made it this way by acquiring four new options at the trade deadline, all with ticking clocks.

It’s cliché, but still accurate, when you have 10 guys who could fill a role, chances are you have none. Today, I’d really like to look at the picture so we can really talk about where they are and who knows, maybe even make some decisions, even if they won’t do what we think is best here.

Let’s start with a list shall we? I always feel when building a puzzle, it’s best to make sure you lay out all the pieces first.

Cole Tucker

Kevin Newman

Rodolfo Castro

Hoy Park

Michael Chavis

Diego Castillo

Tucapita Marcano

Oneil Cruz

Wilmer Difo

Thing is, when you look at this list, not a single one is a lock. Maybe you think that’s a good thing, competition brings out the best in players right? I guess, but it sure would be nice if someone had jumped out and taken charge of at least one spot.

I guess we have to start with need, if you can play short stop, it stands to reason you can play second, but not necessarily vice versa. So the short stops have an edge. That’d be Tucker, Newman, Cruz, Castro, Castillo, Difo and Marcano. Hoy Park and Chavis are really best suited at second.

You almost have to keep two guys who can play short, it’s not a position to just ask a guy to go out and do his best, experience counts.

I could easily sit here and tell you this will just be an open competition in Spring, but we need to be honest with ourselves to a degree, if the Pirates take Kevin Newman and Wilmer Difo to arbitration, they’re likely making the club. That would leave one spot for 7 players and Difo isn’t exactly the best option at short.

Everyone else has an option, it’s not like its make the club or you’re gone, but giving a 40-man spot to 6 guys at one position group who aren’t going to make the 26-man roster isn’t exactly advisable when you have so many guys to protect.

OK let’s think a little more about that list.

Diego Castillo needs added to the 40 or offered an MiLB contract. They just dealt for him knowing this, and he performed well. Well enough to be promoted to AAA where he kept performing.

Tucapita Marcano is a guy Ben Cherington has coveted since 2020 and he finally managed to get him last year in exchange for Adam Frazier, I can’t see a path where he leaves him unprotected in the rule five draft, and I equally can’t see him making the 26-man. Thing is, he hasn’t been very good since being acquired, again I just can’t see him being DFA’d to be removed from the 40-man.

Oneil Cruz is borderline for me, I think he could make the club, but I can just as easily see him starting in AAA. Hell he could even change positions, regardless this is a guy to watch here.

Kevin Newman is a gold glove finalist, and it was warranted, he’s that good. Problem is the bat leaves much to be desired. If anyone on this list is a lock, it’s Kevin. You may have seen enough, I highly doubt the Pirates have.

Cole Tucker can play defense well, but a touch below Newman. To me, he’s an iffy 40-man player enjoying the benefit of recency bias. He had a really nice finish to 2021, but he’s been in the system forever and as I sit here, I can’t see all these guys being retained. To me, if the next guy makes it, he doesn’t. In fact he might not even if the next guy doesn’t.

Wilmer Difo was a really solid bench piece leading the league in pinch hitting. He can play both positions, but short isn’t really where you want to use him and he’s a less is more guy. Reportedly his energy is wanted and needed in the clubhouse and the Pirates would have to take him to arbitration should they choose to keep him. It’s not about the money 1.1 mil is nothing even for this team, it’s about looking at this list and saying yes he’s more valuable. I can’t get there. Maybe if I thought next year they’d be in the hunt he’s a guy I’d fight for.

Michael Chavis is intriguing because he can play first base as well, and let’s not forget they’ll need a backup over there as well. He has options, he has power, but he lost the opportunity to really show the club what he could do due to injury. Poor timing for the young man because Ben Cherington had every bit of willingness to have him show he was right with the pick when he selected him while with the Red Sox. He’s also one of the few on this list who has an MLB track record, even if it is spotty.

Hoy Park is a tough one. He was just ok. Really that’s about as glowing as I can go and if the bat played a bit more perhaps I could go to bat for him. These decisions are very much so intertwined but again, I can’t see a world where Cole Tucker gets a spot and Hoy Park does too. Thing is, at his age, I’m not sure Hoy Park is worth a 40 man spot. To me it’s either you think he’s ready to be on the 26-man or you don’t think he’s worth keeping. Sounds cold, but that’s not far off I’ll bet on that.

Rodolfo Castro you could make the case showed more than most. He hit some bombs, he played some D, he also showed his youth. Struggled with some routine plays, and made some electric things look routine. I believe in his future, I’m just not sure I believe his future is now. I can’t see a world in which they protected him from the 40-man in 2021, watched what he did last year while clearly being promoted too early then go forward with a DFA (which is how you remove a guy from the 40-man) in 2022. OK, I said no locks, but to me he’s at least a lock to make the 40.

Thing is folks, I did all this without even getting into the future most of you see being an absolute lock Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales. I’ll bring them up here because while everything I just referenced is true, Peguero needs protected this year, and he has zero chance of actually playing in MLB this season. So all those variables and numbers I spewed, add another.

I know as you sit here reading this list, many of you will decide that Newman or Tucker are easy choices. Fire Difo into the sun! I still think you’d have some tough choices and more importantly, I think you’d guarantee a worse 2022 should you choose to exchange experience for youth.

I think any number of these guys could actually be good, maybe even better than what’s been here, but I also think it’s a hell of a risk.

Hey, maybe worse than 2021 is a silly thing to worry about, after all it’d be real, real hard to actually accomplish.

If I had to guess, and let’s face it, that’s what it’d be, I’d move on from Difo, Park and Tucker but I’d hover over the delete button on at least two of them. These things are good problems to have and in some cases the hardest thing is the fear of missing out. The best thing I can say to combat that is probably, missing out is ok so long as what you kept make their mark.

Hell of an off season, this is just two positions.

The Pirates Minor Leaguers Hold A Key To The Future

10-28-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

For almost as long as I can remember, my eyes have always wandered to the Pirates Minor League System, and everything that it entails; even when the team was competitive in 2013-15. From player performance and projections to coaching techniques and evaluation. All while soaking in as much MLB Amateur Draft and International Signing Period information as I can handle, which is a lot. It’s just something I enjoy doing, but I also realize it’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

Back in the day, since I was not very locked into the social media scene, this was not something that was very apparent to me. Sure, there would be a few callers on the local radio station who voiced frustrations about being tired of hearing about the next big prospect that was on his way to Pittsburgh. However, at this point it was more or less background noise, as I studied the Pirates Farm, and attended many games along the way.

Then I started blogging and podcasting about the Pirates back in 2019, with the majority of my articles focusing on prospects I had watched and/or closely followed during the previous season(s).

Rather quickly, I began to notice that the majority of feedback I received was from two polar opposite camps; with their flags firmly planted in the ground. On one side there was the appreciative reader that thanked me for the information, as they asked for continued articles on other prospects, or engaged me conversations concerning players that peaked their interest. On the other end of the spectrum responses were short, sweet and to the point. These fans were tired of hearing about the promise of prospects with the Pirates System, and didn’t care who they were or even how they did before arriving at PNC Park.

As I ventured further outside of my own little circle, to the Facebook Groups and Twitter Feeds I have become pretty familiar with over the past two years, this divide has only become more apparent; and if possible even wider than I first imagined.

Obviously, there are some fans that exist within the grey area, along with different levels of either pro or anti prospect within the two individual camps; which ultimately leads to certain people being labeled as unrealistically optimistic, unreasonably pessimistic, fanboys, miserable, apologists, out-of-touch, not true fans, etc.

Now, clearly we are all Pirates Fans or we wouldn’t be discussing the team at all. And we all realize that every player on our team-as well as all others-used to be a prospect. But, it’s not just not this simple. The process of identifying acquiring and/or developing talent is a lot more complicated. Especially, when there have been some hand-cuffs attached to the manner in which this practiced has played out in Pittsburgh.

Merely, go back and read Gary’s article on the list of top ten free agent signings made under Nutting’s reign, with arguably a couple left off. Not that updating the list to include any of them would paint a different picture.

The complexity of building a baseball team-particularly a competitive one-is somewhat astounding. This is not groundbreaking information. Yet, with each bit of information I come across, it seems like another layer is added to the labyrinth, that the Pirates and General Manager Ben Cherington now find themselves in.

The other night, as I was sitting down to watch the first game of the World Series, I found myself mindlessly scrolling through Twitter; eventually landing on a couple of tweets from one of my favorite follows-Jason Martinez, Mr. Roster Resource himself, from Fangraphs-concerning how the Braves and Astros built their 26-man championship rosters.

When looking at the numbers, there are two that concerned me for each team when considering how the Pirates could potentially need to build a contender; the first being free agents and the other beginning the number of players acquired since the end of the previous season.

The free agent concern is two-fold because this not only includes players from the MLB market, but also those signed on International side of things; neither of which the Pirates have been successful and/or active in by history. Once again you can refer to Gary’s list for Major League Free Agents, and only have to search as far as Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco on the International end, both of which are worrisome; with Gary’s list also feeding into at least part my apprehension about bringing in quite a few players in the off-season. The main hope here is that these could also come through trades, although prospect development would still play a major role in this because they would have to possess players-with talent-that other teams would be interested in.

As I considered all of the obstacles our team would need to overcome, my mind-and fingers-found their way to the Pirate’s Depth Chart Page on Fangraphs; with the projected 26-man roster, as the team heads in the off-season. Currently, the roster breakdown is as follows: Homegrown (7), Free Agent (3), Trade (8), Waivers (6) and Purchased-aka traded for cash after the had been DFA’d (2).

Now, I know this has been a part of-and a result of-Ben Cherington’s waiver wire watch, in an attempt to find cheap talent or reclamation projects; but, I also think it shows just how far off the Pirates could potentially be from actually competing, as well as the razor thin margin of error that he will have to navigate under the current system. A system that will cause the Pirates to rely heavily on homegrown talent, as well as prospects that have been acquired through trades and in the International landscape.

At the moment, we could delve into this even further, as we contemplate the number of players on the current roster that are seen as having a legitimate chance of being on the team, if and when they become competitive again. For the most part I have seen less than a handful of guys mentioned as being able to fit this mold, with the majority of people landing on three (Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and David Bednar). Add in Oneil Cruz because he is in the projected lineup, and you have four. That leaves 22 spots to fill over the next couple of years.

So, where exactly will the bulk of those players come from? You, guessed it; the Pirates Farm System. A reality that I can only assume will not be extremely popular within the anti-prospect camp, because that means more prospect chatter; which I will even agree-as a self proclaimed prospect junkie-has gotten out of hand at times.

For me, this reality often leads to uncertainty surrounding how the Pirates will be able maintain this system, based in the unease i experience when I look at situations like this year’s (and future years’) Rule 5 Drafts and the number of players that potentially need protected; along with Cherington’s apparent vision of bringing along prospects on a similar timeline, that could lead to an eventual arbitration overload.

But, in all honesty, I am probably getting ahead of myself, as Cherington and Company have to develop them first.

You know, the third and possibly most crucial step in Cherington’s 4 point plan of identifying, acquiring, developing and deploying players/talent. Because without it, all of this prospect chatter is for not; and truthfully, I don’t know where else they can make up this gap.

A gap that eerily resembles the divide that exists between the Pirates Fans who have been characterized as unrealistically optimistic and unreasonably pessimistic.

Which got me thinking; maybe, just maybe, they are both on to something.

Is Oneil Cruz the Next Big Thing?

10-28-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

It was last year in September.

My wife and I were tired of being cooped up in the house with COVID restrictions and most of us had no idea it’d still be with us a full year later, but I digress.

We went to a little town called Davis in West Virginia and got a little cabin, you know, just to sit somewhere else in isolation. The thing is we were slipping away to shut off so imagine how annoyed she was when news broke that Oneil Cruz was involved in a deadly crash in his native Dominican Republic.

I didn’t write anything initially, instead opting to call back on personal experience and caution everyone to wait for more reliable news. Not that the reporters were doing a poor job, just because when it comes to law enforcement in that country, let’s just say I wasn’t comfortable running with initial reports.

That feels like an eternity ago.

The entire story arc took us full circle and he entered 2021 right back where he left off, one of the most intriguing and close to the majors impact prospects, and boy did he impact.

In what to me was a bit of a surprise he started off in AA Altoona and despite an injury costing him time he hit .292 with an .882 OPS and 12 bombs.

AAA didn’t slow him down, in only 6 games he hit 5 more dingers .524 batting average with an OPS of 1.941.

MLB didn’t hurt him either, in only two games he popped one and somehow racked up a 0.1 WAR.

The dude is for real, at least at the plate.

In the field, well that’s a different animal. The team and reportedly Cruz himself, are passionate that he can play short stop. I’ll give it to him, for a very large man, he is slick, he can get to everything and his arm is a cannon.

Technique wise, he has some work to do if Short Stop is truly going to be his position. His arm makes up for much of it, but he has a bit of a double clutch tendency before throws and it takes guys a ton of reps to get good at leading the second baseman for double play turns.

The Pirates have a need for his bat, but they also put a ton of emphasis on defense this season and I’ll be as blunt as possible here, if he is planted at Short, it’ll be a direct contradiction to that effort without some pretty remarkable improvement from the young man.

Again, I don’t want to make it sound like he’s a complete train wreck in the hole, he’s not, he’s just not as good as several options this team has. In other words, there are better ways to get his bat in the lineup.

So the go to is hey, make him the DH if the NL adopts one. Well, I’d hate to waste that arm and athleticism. When you find a guy with 4 or 5 tools, it’s generally bad practice to tell him 1 or 2 of them are of no use to you.

Center field is occupado for the time being. So that leaves really Right Field, Left Field or 1st Base.

Now if the bat is ready, I’m not sure how you start him in AAA, especially knowing how badly this team needs some of what he can do. But I’m not sure I want MLB to be his training ground for learning the outfield.

By most accounts he’s a smart kid, and the team had started trotting him out there during batting practice in Altoona to shag some flies so it’s not like they haven’t started to make the obvious choice to at least expand his skill set.

If he starts in AAA and plays short stop, I personally am going to have some questions. I understood leaving him there because he had some very real work to do with the bat, adjustments he’s successfully made I might add. There was no need to introduce something else while working on arguably the more important thing for the player, but now the Pirates find themselves in an awkward position.

If he starts in AAA learning Right Field, OK, they’re getting him ready for the jump. Short Stop, and honestly I’d rather see him learn up here.

The cynics out there, of which I count myself most of the time, will absolutely look at this as service time manipulation. And if he starts at SS, me too. It’s not often I’ll truly make a deal out of this, for instance I was absolutely fine with Hayes starting 2020 in the minors (OK training site), but Cruz has shown the bat is where it needs to be.

If I’m the Pirates I have him play outfield 80% of Spring Training and I make this call more for what’s behind him and his skill set more than his inability to play the infield. Have him learn there where the wind eats up even the best outfielders. Have him hit the cutoff man in games that don’t count. Have him learn how to not collide with Cal Mitchell, not Bryan Reynolds.

Some prospects hit different, and that describes Cruz to a tee. The last prospect that really had this much expectation is Andrew McCutchen. That’s not to say we weren’t excited to see others, but be honest, Hayes on his way up looked a lot more like the Hayes of 2021 than the Hayes we saw in 2020. Reynolds was a nobody, hell Jason Martin was ranked ahead of him. Pleasant surprise doesn’t even begin to touch what Reynolds has been.

Mitch Keller was THE pitching prospect, but still expected to top out as a middle of the rotation arm.

Cruz is expected to help carry a team on his lanky frame, and how the Pirates handle the next step with him will help write that story. Handle it right and they have a real live star in the making. Handle it wrong and they have a guy who can hit but makes it tough to put him in the field.

Either way, if we have MLB baseball in 2022, Cruz is going to be one of the very best reasons to watch, and dare I say one of the biggest reasons for hope.

A Shutdown of MLB is Imminent, That’s Different Than Rooting for One

10-26-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Well, I suggest if you’re a fan of baseball, you swallow all your hate and resentment for the Braves and Astros, because the World Series could very well be the last MLB product we get to watch for a while.

It’s no secret that MLB and the MLBPA don’t trust one another, but there’s a reason this is being so widely reported, because both sides are dug in, and they aren’t within shouting distance of agreement.

MLB has had relative labor peace since 1994 fueled largely by the union making concessions when it came to young players and the owners just about giving in on most issues. The time for that is over. The players have nothing left to give on young players, in fact they desperately need for the sake of solidarity to convince them that the union has their back too.

The owners want more cost control, even as the league revenues continue to rise. Their most widely leaked proposal is just shy of a salary cap, it’s not going far enough to truly fix the game, but enough for the players to recognize what it symbolizes. They proposed a 180 million dollar Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), you probably know this as the luxury tax. It’s a pretty drastic reduction and in addition MLB wants to stiffen the penalty for exceeding it.

They’re claiming this extra CBT money would increase the associated revenue sharing allowing other teams who otherwise couldn’t or wouldn’t to reach their new salary floor of 100 million.

The players think that smells like a cap, and I guess they’re right, but it’s really more like putting a cap on a candle with a couple holes drilled in it, it’ll still burn, just not as bright. In other words, it doesn’t really stop the problem at hand, just quiets it a bit.

It’s also funny they call this CBT, because it realistically has nothing to do with true competitive balance, it’s more about trying to keep the overall percentage of payroll figures from increasing, something that’s happened successfully the last two years as the average salary of an MLB player has fallen each of the last two campaigns.

What you can call this proposal is MLB wanting to keep wages down by making sure the teams that regularly set the market, don’t. They’ll try to sell it by saying yeah but all these guys (Cheapo Pirates, Orioles) will now have to spend THIS MUCH! The fact is, something like this even being leaked is a very bright sign that a lock out is on the way.

There’s also little chance the owners will come out of this negotiation without expanded playoffs, the players won’t give that for nothing. As a singular issue, they could probably agree on this one if only because MLB could point to increased playoff revenue and give the players a nice percentage of the new revenue stream. Gang it with all the other issues and it becomes a beacon of the only additional dollars they’re offering.

Point is folks, it’s happening. I don’t know when it’ll end, but I don’t see the owners letting it go into Spring where the Players could embarrass them with a strike, so I’d put my money on a lockout. They could do it right away after the World Series if they so chose, in the past they have immediately chosen to freeze free agency, really their chatter about changing the CBT is already going to at least slow it way down.

Throughout the years it’s not like this is unprecedented.

In 1972 the players went on strike because they weren’t happy about pension levels. This was during the season and only lasted a couple weeks.

One year later in 1973 the owners locked out the players during Spring Training because they wanted to change salary arbitration structure.

1976 the owners again, this time to address free agency, at this point it was a boiling issue and badly needed someone to formally structure it.

1980 The players struck back over the same issue with a strike during Spring Training

1981 it had to start feeling like this was constantly a problem, I’d love to hear from some of you old timers out there, this predates me and people didn’t really write about their feelings in 81. Two months of games were lost and it was still about free agency, this time the compensation not how it was implemented.

In 1985 a super great movie about time travel came out and the players again went on strike over pensions and arbitration, two days, blip.

Back to the back and forth, in 1990 the owners locked out the players over arbitration and free agency, this time it pushed back the opening of the season.

1994 the mother of all labor disputes. Players went on strike because the owners wanted a salary cap. We lost the 1994 postseason and a significant chunk of the 1995 season. This one was ended by a federal judge who simply kicked them back to the original CBA.

That was the moment folks. 1994

This was a response to the Yankees signing an at the time gigantic TV deal in excess of 50 million. Every team in the league knew what this would eventually mean for the game, and it’s exactly where we are. They had the numbers, they had the will, and they had the case.

They’re getting back to those thoughts now, and this time they have the precedents in place to not fear the Federal courts.

Problem is I think they’re missing the other two elements.

A lockout or strike isn’t something to fear, it’s happened before, and last time it led to quite a long stretch of peace. So long that there simply aren’t a lot of players left who went through it, perhaps that’ll give them the stomach to go through it.

You’ll hear people say this is damaging the game, or killing the sport. Of course, and you’ll hear that often quoted millionaires vs billionaires line. But this head was forming for quite some time, and at some point it has to pop.

Baseball has some problems that neither side can realistically turn a blind eye to anymore, and the good news is there is a path to everything both sides want, as long as enough people in that room are smart enough to stop getting triggered by historic bad words.

Now, I’ll openly tell you this has to happen for the game. Is that rooting?

Eh, to me it’s more of an acceptance that we’ve reached a boiling point, it’s going to happen, now it’s really about do things get better or worse.

For instance, I’d love to tell you Bob Nutting would be in there railing for a salary cap system (and for whoever has their fingers hovering over their keyboard right now to tell me a floor too, yes, they aren’t capable of function without each other) but Bob Nutting is a terrible spokesperson for this effort.

You want someone like Mark Attanasio the Brewers Owner, he can literally say he tried, physically show it and prove the system makes it nearly impossible. Bob can show you he’s made more money than Mr. Attanasio at best. There are others, enough to actually form a good coalition, one that Bob could be part of, just not a vocal part.

Without a stoppage, it’s more of the same, if you’re ok with that, we disagree. Doesn’t make you wrong or me right, but I’m not likely to change my mind on what this league needs.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

10-25-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The 2021 MLB season is nearly over, one more major event now as the World Series is set to get underway tomorrow. The off season is where the Pirates will have the most opportunity for change and improvement, so immediately we get started with those topics in little more than a week or so.

1. The World Series is Set

Breaking news right? Atlanta and Houston are set to face off in the World Series and while I couldn’t care less who wins there are some players I’d really like to see do well. First, I’ve always respected and enjoyed watching Freddie Freeman. He’s one of those guys who you could almost write his stats in ink before the season and feel pretty good he’ll hit them, all while arguably being the best first baseman in the game. And of course our old friend Charlie Morton who’s starting game one.

That’s really what it’s about for me once you get to this point. Individuals. Some people want to make it about the cheating Astros, others want to make it political and talk about the chants in Atlanta, others still want to make it some magic revenge for the All Star Game being moved from Atlanta. For me, it’s just about watching some good baseball and hoping a few guys do well.

Houston was good all season, but Atlanta overcame the loss of Ozuna and Acuna, took advantage of a weak division and gave themselves an opportunity that I’ll be honest, I didn’t see being there. I actually thought they were nuts going out and adding at the deadline for what I was fairly certain would be a quick showing in the playoffs.

2. The Off Season Schedule

The Qualifying Offer deadline is Nov 10th – The Pirates don’t have many of these, but it’s still interesting because the Free agent market isn’t truly set until you see who receives an offer. Here’s a perfect example of why it matters. Jon Gray is a free agent from the Rockies, and he will probably be reeled in for a pretty affordable price, 3-4 years and 9-10 million AAV. But the Rockies made a point to remove him from the available list at the trade deadline, and that means they either think they can sign him or could signify they aren’t going to just let him go for nothing. If he gets a Qualifying Offer, it’ll be in the 18 million range. Might be pretty tempting for Mr. Gray to just take that offer, but the Rockies would be foolish to just let him walk.

Nov 19th is the 40 man deadline – You’ll note the non-tender deadline is in December, it’s the last entry on this list. Yes, physically the non-tender decisions aren’t due here, but intellectually, you really expect most of the decisions made at this date. For instance, if they are to non-tender a player like Chad Kuhl, they aren’t going to keep him for this deadline only to turn around and non-tender him a couple weeks later. The only reason you’d see something like that is say Colin Moran was scheduled to get like 8 million in arbitration, the Pirates might want him to return, but not want to pay anywhere near that figure, so you might see some games being played in a situation like that.

The Winter Meetings are Dec 5-9th – And yes, it’ll happen even if baseball has a lock out. The Winter Meetings have always been the first logs on the hot stove and if the game is actively shut down the dynamics might change, but nobody is shooting for a long season ending shut down so the business of baseball will still proceed.

Dec is non-tender deadline – Not much to say here. If you’re available for arbitration, the team has to tender (essentially make an offer) or sign the player for 2022. A non-tender essentially makes a player a free agent, but we just saw last season with Clay Holmes how it doesn’t always mean the end of the road with the club.

December 2nd – There is no more important date. National writers, agents, players, owners and league officials are all pretty cavalierly predicting a shut down. That doesn’t mean we’ll miss baseball games, not yet, but it does mean that these two sides have done little to creep closer to agreement. If a shutdown were to extend into the season, it’s very likely that MiLB would still play, well, everyone not on the 40-man anyhow, those guys are part of the union. I wish I had a real feeling that this was all building to a salary cap system, but for right now I’ll simply say we really need to get a true gauge on how far apart to two sides are. If it’s far enough, I could see things going nuclear, but that’s still a bit of a pipe dream to me.

3. What if the Owners Think They’re In for a Long Lockout?

This is very subjective, so please, just think through it with me, don’t take it as predictions. The Pirates already are going to risk losing some players to the Rule 5 draft, and based on history the draft would still take place, even in a shutdown league, that’s what happened in 1994, and until I see it treated differently, I’ll assume it follows suit.

Now, lets say the owners expect to lose 3 months of the season, does that change the risk involved with selecting rule 5 players? Does it change who teams protect? For instance, If I’m completely losing any hope of Chad Kuhl having a good first half of the season so I can move him, I’m in no way considering tendering him.

Does it change the spirit of one year deals for the same reason? In some ways it could actually make it more attractive for teams because they could be looking at pro rated salaries for guys they typically wouldn’t take a swing at.

For the Pirates, man it could really change some things, for instance, most of us universally believe some of the outfield help in AAA will be ready to take a crack at MLB by mid season, if that’s so, and the owners seem to think we’ll be locked out for a while, would they maybe prefer to just let MiLB play out and start with some of their own prospects in MLB than going out and getting someone? My guess is most involved won’t predict doom and gloom, but I also don’t get the impression either side is ready to just roll over.

I bet no team is comfortable signing the big free agents until this is all settled, especially while the luxury tax itself will expire. That’s right, we could come out of this with zero restrictions on big market teams to spend, not that this is working well anyhow, but rest assured if the players have their way, we’ll have nothing close to that.

Hey, things to think about.

4. It’s Not All or Nothing

Neal Huntington is a polarizing figure here in Pittsburgh, but mostly because people can’t seem to grasp that he did good and bad things here. He took a bad team, built up what Dave Littlefield left him and brought in some key pieces to be in the mix for three years. Then he lost it, simply tried to hang on when he should have flipped much more and or didn’t add to a team that was close enough to add to. Either way, he didn’t handle it well.

It’s ok to say he did well, and it’s equally ok to say he failed at the end. It happens.

There are a lot of Pirates topics like this. Clint Hurdle was the right coach at the right time for this club, but the game started passing him by. Worse the organization did nothing to help him do so. They were not where they needed to be on analytics, and certainly not where they needed to be on modern baseball training techniques in the system.

This happens again. 3 years of success led to a feeling that what they were doing worked, so why change anything right? Well, maybe had they actually held onto and or replaced the very real talents they had to move out they’d have an argument, but eventually it should have become clear.

Yeah, I know, Nutting didn’t spend. That’s very true, but he also trusted his president and GM that trading Cole for the package they got from Houston would have them back to contention in fairly short order. He also trusted that trading some young talent for an aging starting pitcher would help get them back where they needed to be. As bad as that trade was, this fool willingly took on money to do it. Say what you will, he said yes I’m fine not paying league minimum to two guys and moving the number one pick we just made for this guy who I have to pay for a couple years.

Obviously bad choices all around, but not everything is black and white, sometimes it’s just grey, and that’s ok.

The same will be said for Cherington when his story is fully written. He’ll have good moves and bad moves, good signings and bad signings. For instance, it’s too early to tell, but the Josh Bell trade doesn’t look great, heck the Adam Frazier deal doesn’t look terrific. It’s part of the game, if he wins he’ll be a genius, if he doesn’t he’ll probably be a decent GM constrained by his owner if not a total bust.

Reality, most of them do good and bad things, it’s really about doing more good than bad at the end of the day.

5. The Easiest Prediction for 2022 is….

The Pirates will be better than 2021.

It’s an easy prediction because it’d be monumentally hard for them not to best 101 losses. Young players get better, and that’s what the team has stated as their goal. They of course meant bringing in more talent, but they also specifically spoke to making the most of the talent on this club.

This roster isn’t going to change much this off season, just isn’t. You can fanaticize about whatever free agent you want, you can blame whomever you choose, fact is they just aren’t going to put much into this team this year.

Fans want improvement, I’m sure the team would too, and I’m betting they’re betting they can get it done largely by nothing more than incremental improvement from players they believe in.

Don’t get me wrong, they’ll bring in some players and jettison others, but largely internal growth seems to be what Cherington wants to lean on.

Baseball is so weird in this regard. In the NFL, if you’re not a good running back or a good right tackle, chances are next year you won’t be either. In MLB, you can have most everyone think you won’t even be on the 40-man next year, give a couple weeks of decent performance and suddenly find yourself a tough choice and 6 months later have people screaming you need extended.

It’s the beauty and frustration of team building in MLB, and one would think for a team that’s been trying to do it for like 35 out of the last 40 seasons they’d be pretty good at it. There simply must be improvement.

Show me something. Show me a pitcher who figures things out under Marin’s tutelage. Show me Kevin Newman not falling into bad habits at the plate for 5 months Mr. New Hitting Coach. Show me Anthony Alford using his blazing speed for an actual stolen base Mr. Coach who I don’t even know yet.

Point is, if you can’t improve talents that actually made it to MLB already, why should we believe you’ll do it with minor league players? I’m not indicting this management group for the failures of the past, but I am saying at some point you have to show you can do some of the things you’re telling me you want to do.

Pittsburgh Pirates Chairman Of The Board, Robert Nutting, Is Not A Good Owner

10-23-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

This obviously goes without saying, and is more than likely an understatement of how many of you actually feel based on the barrage of comments that often follow many, if not most of the articles myself and Gary write. It doesn’t even have to be an piece that deals with anything remotely resembling team spending-ex. my Through The Prospect Porthole articles-to cause remarks about Nutting and his propensity for frugal spending to fill our story’s threads; with some that appear to be a copy and paste, placed under every single post that mentions the Pirates.

As much as this annoys me on occasion; to spend the time researching a topic or player, writing and editing an article, only to have countless “Spend Nutting, Win Nutting!”, “Sell The Team!”, “The Owner Has Zero Interest In Competing!” and comments of the like plastered below something I did out of pure enjoyment of the game and love for my team…I at least understand and can empathize with the sentiment. No one likes to see their ball club at-or towards-the bottom of the standings more often than not. Although, in many fans’ recollection of events-a narrative of sorts-Nutting has become the supervillain; because every plot involving any type of injustice needs one.

However, in the Pittsburgh Pirates tale of woe I would see him more as the underboss in a much larger organizational deterioration. Kind of like when you had to make your way through Boom Boom in each level of Super Mario Brothers III in order to finally face Bowser (aka King Koopa), with the fate of the entire Mushroom Kingdom hanging in the balance.

Yet, this isn’t even where my main point of contention lies, as this paradigm exists on a much larger scale than the one that resides at 115 Federal Street; and is honestly beyond the reach of anyone that covers, blogs/podcasts about or is a fan of a team in a situation similar to the Pirates.

No, the issue I have survives on misinformation spread throughout the Pirates Fanbase, in an attempt to make Nutting into a Bowser. As if making him crumble, would bring peace and harmony to our own little Mushroom Kingdom.

Often it starts with blanket statements, made out of frustration at the current state of the Pirates; mostly dealing with the teams record and the likelihood they will be able to contend at some point. Most, if not all of these declarations contain the same messages; including, but not limited to: 1) The Pirates will never be competitive as long as Nutting is the owner. 2) Nutting will never allow the team to extend players who are performing well. Once the get good, they will be traded. 3) The Pirates need an owner that is willing to spend money because Nutting will never increase the payroll. Or my personal favorite. 4) The Pirates have been rebuilding since 1992, or in some dramatic cases for the last 40 years.

The first of these assertions is the easiest to disprove because it seems as if some fans magically get amnesia anytime you point out what took place between 2013 and 2015; or if you want to get really specific, in 2018 as well. While it’s not a great track record, the Pirates have 4 winning season and three playoff appearances in the 14 years Nutting has been at the helm; something their previous owner Kevin McClatchy cannot claim. Of course this doesn’t mean that history will repeat itself, so maybe just attach again to the end of the sentence in order to make it relevant.

The second is almost just as easy to discredit by simply pointing to the extensions offered to Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Josh Harrison and Francisco Liriano. While a couple of these attempted, and allowed for the their superstar and a strong starter to be present through a preconceived window, the others tried to keep it open. Even the eventual disastrous Archer trade added payroll in the short term in an attempt to be competitive.

Now, number three can be resolved by a painless Google search. In 2008, Nutting’s first season as owner the Pirates team payroll-including benefits and bonus-totaled $65 million. By 2017 it peaked at $118 million, with the number falling around $111 million during what many see as our last competitive season in 2015. Sure there’s the always referenced lack of push after the 2016 to keep the party going, most often punctuated by Neil Walker being traded to the Mets for Jon Niese or bringing in Juan Nicasio and Ryan Vogelsong to sure up the pitching staff. Less frequently credited in a ball club going from the second best team in MLB with 98 wins to one that managed only 78 is the fact that Andrew McCutchen went from a 5.0 WAR All -Star player to being below replacement level at -.3 WAR or that Gerrit Cole fell from 4.3 to 1.5. And you better not even mention that Josh Harrison had 2.0 WAR compared to Neil Walker’s 2.2 WAR from the year before, or that John Jaso topped Pedro Alvarez’s performance from the year before. It was all Nutting.

Then you have the fourth and final claim, which is the go-to when all else fails; the Pirates are always rebuilding. After the 1992 run for a Championship, the Pittsburgh Associates knew they couldn’t keep the group they had assembled together, but they pressed forward for a few more years. This was until Kevin McClatchy came on the scene. In his time as the team’s CEO and lead owner McClatchy employeed two GM’s-Cam Bonifay and David Littlefield,who did nothing more than tread water; with any mention of a rebuild being nothing more than lip service.

Finally when Neal Huntington took over at the end of 2007, a rebuild-the first since 1986-actually took place. Obviously it wasn’t perfect, but I didn’t hear too many complaints when it was in full swing. So, that makes this the third rebuild in 35+ years, and only the second of Nutting’s time as the Pirates owner; with the first one going pretty well.

On top of these, there are so many regular inaccurate posts concerning revenue sharing versus the Pirates payroll-which is not even close to a baseball organizations total expenses-that it just makes me want to scream. Do you think each team gets Monopoly Money to play around with in each MLB Draft? Is the International Bonus Pool Space just that; space with the ever expanding payroll that no one comes to collect on? Do coaches, scouting members, analysts and other staff members work for free? Does MLB just donate Rapsodo, Trackman and other devices to every Major League team? Are improvements to Major League and Minor League Complexes on the house? Do the Pirates get credit for being only one out of 11 MLB ball clubs to pay their players for extended Spring Training?

Obviously, after many Pirates Fans read this article I will be proclaimed as a Nutting Apologist, but truthfully I don’t even care anymore. Is Robert Nutting a terrible owner? Yes. Is he cheap? Yes. Will getting rid of him fix the Pirates? Absolutely not.

But keep treating Nutting as the King Koopa. See where that gets you. See where that gets our favorite team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. The battle in MLB is bigger than just one man.