Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Sullen, Lifeless and Poorly Coached

5-5-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Hey, it’s Cinco De Mayo and thank god because I might need Cinco Margheritas to get through another Monday game that doesn’t start until after 8.

This team looks defeated before the first pitch is thrown, and even if they don’t, the pitching staff feels they can’t give up a singular run and the offense proves them right on the daily. 6 shutouts already, and even that doesn’t speak to just how many of the Pirates 35 baseball games in which they’ve won 12 have been completely disinteresting.

There’s just no energy, and while the talent level isn’t on Derek Shelton, the lack of energy sure as hell is.

Today, instead of 5 points about all different subjects, let’s turn this into a 5 point plan that I’d implement right this second. It won’t fix everything, but I bet it fixes some of it, which is way better than listening to Shelton stammer through another press conference repeating he has no answers for anything that ails the team.

Also, there will be things you want to see on this list, that I’m simply not going to include. Try to keep in mind, this is like right now, Monday Afternoon, these are things I think they should and could do immediately, not an exhaustive list of everything I’d change.

Lets Go!

1. Fire Derek Shelton

Enough is enough.

Again, this isn’t alone going to fix everything, and no, he shouldn’t be the scapegoat for the entire organization, but step one is eliminating the connection from the Management team to the team itself.

The message from that management team is probably equally guilty, but I’m sorry at some point you at least have to try it with a new spokesperson.

The list of reasons is vast. If you want to see some of them listed out, check out my latest Locked On Pirates…

Above all that, this stopped being about what was fair to whom, or who did or didn’t get a fair chance long ago.

Ben Cherington has had ample opportunity to give him better if indeed he was concerned about that facet, and Derek Shelton has been given ample opportunity to prove he can at least get the floor projections for talent he’s given.

It’s not a cure all, but it is the most efficient way to shake up the chemistry in that room.

Finally on this point, have you ever gone to a restaurant and all the employees seem like you being there is the actual worst thing that’s happened to them today? They go through the motions, you get your food, they give you a half smirk when it comes time to present you with the bill, along with your opportunity to tip of course, but very little in the way of making you feel welcome. Sometimes, they’ll mess up your order and have the audacity to try to blame you like you somehow forgot you’re allergic to fish or don’t like tomatoes.

That’s the energy on this team right now. And folks, rarely is that the employees causing it, that’s from the top down. The manager is probably stressed, tired, disinterested themselves because they don’t have answers to the most normal of day to day problems and frankly, everyone gets tired of working in that environment.

Much like people and their pets, players eventually reflect their manager’s disposition.

This one looks like apathy and a healthy dose of acceptance.

2. Bring Up Bubba Chandler, Move Mlodzinski to the Pen

It’s too simple to be a point here, in fact, I find it difficult to find anyone who disagrees.

Fans need something new to cheer for, and Bubba Chandler might just provide it. This would bolster the rotation, that frankly hasn’t been as good as it needed to be in order to have it drag this roster into a winner, in fact it hasn’t been good enough to be in 4th place in the NL Central.

Sure, he’ll experience things like rookies do, and that’s ok, look, the playoffs are gone. I know nobody can say it internally, I get why, but we all know it and so do they. Now is the time to get this project going, if for no other reason than to make sure he isn’t a project anymore by 2026.

Mlodzinski would help this bullpen. A bullpen that largely hasn’t been an issue outside of a few very notable blowups, they’ve kept this team in games they had no business being in.

This just makes too much sense, and with all the talent they’ve brought into the organization to instruct the pitching staff, I can’t fathom why you wouldn’t want him up here working with Strom and Marin like yesterday.

They haven’t cared about Super 2 since Oneil Cruz, so I can’t see this being a thing either. Bubba is coming, and it might as well be right now.

3. To Grow, You Must Have Room to Do So

Bring up kids, and PLAY them.

Novel concept right? Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, none of them will be here next year.

I can make an argument that IKF has helped this team, at least at the plate, but defensively, they aren’t doing themselves or him favors playing him at SS. Adam Frazier has been better than we thought he’d be, especially defensively, but IKF should replace him and this team needs to try someone younger at SS.

Maybe that’s Nick Gonzales when he returns from the IL, but for right now, why can’t it be Liover Peguero? Again, don’t bother telling me what he’s done, or what you think he’ll do, this is about the team answering the question. 4 years on the 40-man, and we still have a player you call up and sit. Can’t even get a pinch hit.

Henry Davis, a 1:1, just sits there, playing once or twice a week. Absolutely no power on this team, Henry has it in spades even if it’s largely unrealized. PLAY him. Yes, even if it’s at the expense of Andrew McCutchen by way of Bart playing DH a bit more. 3 games a week I’d be happier.

Bottom line, you can’t tell me you’re building anything for the future if 4 or 5 of your starters are well over 30 and visibly trending in the wrong way.

This team doesn’t have what looks to be a ton of answers in the minors, but I’ll take my chances that Nick Yorke produces more than Tommy Pham. I’ll take my chances that Peguero will out produce Adam Frazier.

When you sign veterans and have youngsters that are supposedly on the doorstep, they either need to be so unquestionably better than the “kids” that you never for a second believe they can step right in and give you the same production, or, you get what we’re watching, long in the tooth vets who weren’t great at their peak, trying to recapture whatever season they had their best. It’s both unlikely to happen, and not worth it if they do.

Bring up the kids, let people at least believe anything they do matters. Cause frankly, if Pham went 10-15 this week, he’d still stink, and you’d be waiting for him to revert.

4. Hire a Real Fielding Instructor and Fire Mike Rabello and Tarik Brock

This team has been poor defensively and fundamentally since the club cut ties with Joey Cora after 2020. He was a piss poor 3B coach, but he also was a virtuoso with instructing fielders and preaching fundamentals.

Tarik Brock coaches first base, honestly, I don’t care if they keep him there, but he’s also coaching the outfielders, and frankly, it’s been a mess out there his entire tenure.

Poor communication, fear to take charge, poor throw decisions, inexplicable attempts to catch an uncatchable ball, inability to understand the intricacies of playing outfield at PNC Park, terrible base running with a focus on the lack of awareness as it comes to when to go or tag or stay put, and way way more.

Those two are Derek Shelton’s eyes and ears on the field. He says on the record when asked about defensive issues that he’ll have to talk to “T Brock” and all I can say is, in 5 years we can’t teach everyone in the outfield that the center fielder takes charge on every fly ball he wants? 5 years and we have guys going back to tag with 2 outs? 5 years and we have guys getting picked off second base with 2 outs?

Part of this issue is on Shelton to be sure. He is the one who changed the lineup almost daily until very recently, preventing any kind of gelling that might happen in the field just through growing to trust your teammates. He’s the one who keeps starting guys out of position. And ultimately, he’s the one who has happily delegated this work to two guys who simply haven’t produced anything positive since he did so. For 5 years he sat here watching it, and never felt the need to make a change, or hell coach, take over yourself and get the damn job done.

5. Replace the Pro Scouts

This effects multiple things on a baseball team. One, the scouting of upcoming competition. The Pirates have access to all the same information that Michael uses to put together the opposing pitcher looks every day on the site, and somehow the team looks like they had no idea whomever it is would do exactly what Michael wrote about.

This isn’t to denigrate Michael, this is to say, a blogger shouldn’t be out preparing your preparation.

That’s one aspect of pro scouting, and frankly, it’s really got more to do with how the information is gathered and presented, because again, the numbers are the numbers. That said, you have to have this person providing you with warnings about pick off moves, arm strength in the outfield, arm strength of the catcher, timing games a pitcher plays. Stuff like that.

The next is talent acquisition.

Because while Ben Cherington rightfully wears this deficiency, he’s also relying on others to inform his decisions. This is on draft picks, trade targets, guys they’re willing to trade in the first place, ceiling and basement evaluations, all of it.

This team has a great unit for pitching and training them, they don’t have anything close on offense, and it’s painfully apparent. Regardless of keeping or firing Cherington in season, this needs upgraded. Mainly because I can’t assume he’s been getting great advice and ignoring it, I have to assume he and his team of scouts are incapable of recognizing offensive talent.

And it’s not about just taking long shots at guys like Alexander Canario. Long shots will happen with every team, and everyone involved knows that’s what it is. No, this is about examining Tommy Pham, with other viable candidates on the market for a similar price and thinking this was not only a decent signing for the team, but a valuable reason the team would start winning.

This stuff is beyond not working.

Factor in the allegiance to the bloated and over considered analytics department he’s employed and grown every season. Look, I’m not blaming analytics, they are a valuable part of every major league club, but when they present so much of it to the players that it actually starts finding ways to contradict itself, there’s an issue. When you present so many contrived calculations that you use them to convince a team Tommy Pham is a lot more than anyone with eyes would tell you, it’s a BIG issue.

Fix these things, and you have a chance to actually start turning the Titanic away from the iceberg.

Yeah, yeah, fire Cherington whenever, my point is, even if he goes, the replacement in season would be someone already here, someone hired by Cherington, someone who has already been doing the job the way it’s been done and not likely to hire or fire any of these pieces that support the overall system.

By all means, replace Cherington whenever you like, but it’s a lot like replacing a CEO of a failing company. The likelihood that he or she turns it around with all the same parts and pieces in the short term is almost nil. Even over time, there would have to be changes and trust me, the new CEO isn’t cancelling all the orders in process when they came on board, even if they’re done the wrong way.

This draft has already largely been sketched out, I know that’s hard to believe before the draft lottery has even taken place, but they have a top 50 board at least, and the guys on it, they’ll change a bit as we get closer, but ALL the work that goes into it, will remain, even if they make a change.

On the trade front, maybe, maybe you get someone a bit more bold, but you also have to factor in just how bold the team will allow an interim anything to be.

It’s a mess, and it got here from neglect, complacency and overt cheapness. These things might not fulfill your wish list, but some of these are the very boring things that need to happen, beyond naming guys we know and screaming for their heads.

Starter Spotlight: Miles Away From Where We Need To Be

5-5-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

As the losing streak stretches to four games, the fan morale has never been lower. After entering this season with the team expressing confidence that they would be in playoff contention, there have been nothing but ineffective offense and inconsistent defense.

Nevertheless, the Pirates head west to face division rival St. Louis Cardinals for a 3-game set with Miles Mikolas on the bump for game 1.

The Cardinals longest tenured member of their rotation, Mikolas is in his 7th season playing for St. Louis and enters today with a 4.66 ERA over his first 6 starts, pitching 29 innings with 17 strikeouts to 9 walks – but the ERA is inflated by one outing (8 earned runs in 2.2 innings) as he is currently riding an 11.1 inning scoreless streak over his last two starts.

Miles Mikolas is 5-6 with an ERA of 2.90 and 96 strikeouts in 23 appearances versus the Pirates in his career, most recently tossing 6 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball on July 3rd last year and I have covered him previously – but there is still new things to review with a new season underway.

His inability to miss bats places him in the 1st percentile in MLB and nothing else that he does places him on any top tier for starting pitchers.

The wily, mustached veteran Mikolas relies on a varied pitch mix, changing speed and location to keep hitters off balance and get the balls hit in play right to the fielders.

His arsenal currently consists of a low-90s 4-seam/sinker, a slider and changeup both in the mid-80s, a low-80s sweeper and a curve that drops in around 75 MPH.

None of his pitches have been overpowering batters but the placement and movement have become a problem – specifically, his non-fastballs have been a struggle for opposing hitters to barrel up.

Against his fastballs, lefties are hitting .450 and slugging.550 while righties are batting .240 and slugging .280 with expected values even higher at .312 xBA and .482 xSLG, respectively.

Hitters should try to lay off breaking balls – against which opponents are batting just .172 thus far this season.

Opponents have a .280 BAA first time through against Mikolas that drops to .184 second time through.

Nothing in his line would indicate realistic sustainable success and, given he frequently throws both his 4-seam and sinker up in the zone, hitters should key in on those offerings today and attack in-zone early on in the game.

He’s also not really a ground-ball pitcher (37% rate this year and 44.3% career mark) as he allows hard contact that is frequently in the air but, surprisingly, has thus far managed to keep the ball in the park.

Maybe the losing streak ends today and that might require some big hits from the big bats who need put some miles on the ball.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (12-23) at St. Louis Cardinals (16-19)

5-5-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates have been on a gauntlet of facing winning baseball teams, but the way they’ve started, lets be real, they’re looking up at almost everyone they face.

This is the second series this season against the Cards, and they were one of the few teams the Pirates defeated in a series. That said, this Cardinals team while not good, still has enough to compete, and more importantly, they play like a competitive baseball team.

The Cardinals fall short, the Pirates often just stop running when they see they won’t get to the finish line. Still, getting on the road and away from the sad environment they’ve created at home is probably a good thing for this club.

5/5

Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski – 1-3, 6.58 ERA, 22K, 10BB, 1.81 Whip

Cardinals: Miles Mikolas – 1-2, 4.66 ERA, 17K, 9BB, 1.34 Whip

5/6

Pirates: Paul Skenes – 3-3, 2.74 ERA, 41K, 8BB, 0.91 Whip

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore, 2-3, 3.44 ERA, 30K,3BB, 0.97 Whip

5/7

Pirates: Mitch Keller, 1-3, 4.38 ERA, 29K, 12BB, 1.36 Whip

Cardinals: Sonny Gray, 3-1, 4.12 ERA, 39K, 10BB, 1.19 Whip

Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes, this has to be the most under the radar “who’s hot” ever, cause I sure haven’t noticed it, but in his past 15 games, Ke’ is hitting .310, the problem is he just doesn’t walk, like ever, so his OBP is only .344 in that span, but he is collecting hits.

Cardinals: Victor Scott II, he’s been on fire, in his last 15 games he’s hitting .313 with a .377 OBP and is slugging .458 all while playing master class center field.

Pirates: Bryan Reynolds – he’s off to a terrible start to 2025, but we’ve seen this movie before, that’s not a good recipe for a team that can’t afford one of their best to be playing like one of their worst. In his last 7 games, Bryan is hitting .187, with a .267 OBP. From the 2 hole, protecting Cruz in the lineup, yeah, not good enough and so much so it stalls just about everything they get started, on the rare occasion they get something started.

Cardinals: Nolan Arenado – Pretend I’m whispering this, because if he hears, well, I don’t want him to hear. In his last 15 games he’s hitting .211 and his OPS for the season is a full 100 points lower than his career average at .743. Yes, he’s still better than a lot of Pirates hitters, but for him, this is very down.

Pirates: Spencer Horwitz, Jared Jones, Dauri Moreta, Johan Oviedo, Nick Gonzales, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Endy Rodriguez to name a few.

Cardinals: Masyn Winn just sprained his ankle yesterday, day to day and still on the roster for now. Ivan Herrera looks to be close to returning from his knee bone bruise, could be as early as this week.

Notes

The Cards are coming off a thrilling double header sweep of the Mets that propelled them to a series victory against one of the very best teams early on in the game. Don’t expect the Cards to play down to their competition in this series.

Starter Spotlight: Peak Pivetta

5-4-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

***Disclaimer: The starting pitcher was changed to Stephen Kolek, who was recalled to start today’s game. It’s his first MLB game this season but he had a 5.21 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP last season in 46.2 innings pitched. He has control issues that Pirates may want to exploit today as they did against Vasquez but more effectively follow through with men on base. That said, enjoy an entirely unrelated preview for a completely different pitcher***

The Padres are off to a red-hot start and a big reason for it is a strong start to the season from one of their offseason acquisitions, veteran righty Nick Pivetta.

Signed this offseason to a 4-years deal with San Diego, Pivetta is off to the best start of his career entering today with a 5-1 record, 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through 35.1 innings pitched as he has limited base runners via free passes and hits. 

Over his first 6 starts, Pivetta has struck out 39 batters against just 8 walks as he stays in the zone, mostly avoids hard contact and keeps hitters off balance.

His pitch mix utilizes a low-90s 4-seam fastball that he throws about half the time up in the zone while pivoting to his high-70s curve against lefties and his low-80s sweeper to dispatch righties.

He’ll also feature a lesser-used high-80s cutter and low-90s sinker but primarily will setup hitters with the fastball and use their respective breaking balls to put them away.

He’s been especially effective against lefties handed hitters this year with an opponent’s OPS of just .284 compared to .644 for righties.

He’s going to fill up the strike zone and miss bats but his home run/fly ball rate (4.8%) is less than a third of his career mark of 15.1% and, with his barrel rate of 12.8%, it stands to reason that more balls will reach the seats sooner or later.

Batters will need to be ready to attack the fastballs and try to key in on the spin for the curve and sweeper, which both drop down and away from opposing hitters with sharp break.

Starter Spotlight: Let’s Get Randy, Baby!

5-3-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Through very different ways, the Pirates were able to get Dylan Cease and Fernando Tatís Jr out of the game early last night; however, they were unable to capitalize as they lost once again. Today, they will square off against Randy Vasquez as they try to get the series back on track.

It’s hard to be successful when you walk more batters than you strikeout but that is the play Vasquez is trying to navigate as both his walks (19) and earned runs (13) are higher than his K total this season (10). In fact, no pitcher with at least 20 innings this season is even close to his K-BB%.

Control has been a persistent issue for the 26-year old righty as, over his 163 major league innings pitched, he has 66 walks, 12 hit by pitches and 9 wild pitches – along with 3 balks in his career.

He had a solid showing the last time San Diego came to town in August as he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 3 runs off 6 hits with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts.

Vasquez has a rather diverse mix of pitches as he throws 3 different fastballs – cutter/4-seam/sinker – in the low-90s, as well as a low-80s sweeper, low-80s curve and a high-80s changeup as he limits hard contact and gets good results on the breaking balls.

Approach today is gonna be not to swing and to hold off for something middle-middle to drive. Opponents have a .227/.352/.341 slash line first time they face Vasquez compared to .159/.275/.182 second time around so time to get on base and around to score is early on in the game.

When hitters swing, they should target his cutter up in the zone as lefties are hitting .375 against the offering while righties are batting .429 against the pitch.

See pitches, take walks and ambush high heat. Chance to even up the series today but Bucs need the bats to take advantage.

April Ended, Did it End the Pirates Season Too?

5-2-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s been bad.

Ok, see you next month.

Yeah, you know me better than that right? Listen, I know it has been a terrible start, just like I knew the 20-8 start back in 2023 was by all conceivable ways to paint the picture, a legitimately great start.

Back then, I remember doing math, showing just how bad this team would have to be to fall all the way to an under .500 finish. Under 10% chance by the way.

And we all know how that finished, 76 wins. Had you bet on that, you have an adrenalin problem, but you’d have won a pretty penny.

Now I look at a 12-20 start and I see they’d have to win 58% of their remaining games to finish .500 or better.

Is it over? Well, it’s just as decided as the 20-8 start was to being a playoff lock.

Does that mean I see it happening? No, absolutely not. It’s impossible to see that as we sit here.

I could play the what if game. Say they reel off 8-10 in a row, well, the math significantly changes and from that point forward, you’re asking for .500 ball, instead of almost 60%. The thing is, you would have very much so achieved it, but winning 7 out of 10 for 4-5 weeks accomplishes the same thing, you just never get the instant gratification of that number looking more achievable.

The issue is, it’s impossible to look at this team and see it.

So here’s what I want to do today. I want to look at what they have, what they can change internally, and see if I can somehow see enough positive change to get better results in May.

First, we have to discuss the offense. It’s been an issue all year.

Overall, the Pirates offense has been brutal...
26th in team Batting Average .224
28th in HR with 24
23rd in Hits with 238
7th in Strike Outs with 276
27th in OPS with .642

Last half of April…
11th in team Batting Average .266
20th in HR with 11
14th in Hits with 110
19th in Strike Outs with 94
13th in OPS with .731

Now, I show these numbers for one simple reason, this team hit like complete and utter trash for the first half of April, and after that, it’s been largely league average.

The issue is, that second half of April is what we expected as a low water mark, not the up side of a huge down. Even so, improvement and largely with no injection of any upgrades.

How about if we just go by positional OPS and rank them against the league?
DH – 10th – .766
RF – 26th – .615
CF – 2nd – .893
LF – 30th – .387
3B – 19th – .609
SS – 23rd – .606
2B – 26th – .565
1B – 21st – .643
C – 15th – .729

Now, those are positional numbers. In other words, 1B shouldn’t make you pound your fist over Enmanuel Valdez (.758 OPS), but instead make you think about just how bad Endy Rodriguez was (.504 OPS). RF, is indicative of Reynolds, but he also was DH for quite some time, which makes that number not reflect what Cutch has done either. Feel me?

9 Positions, 2 top ten positional performances. Yeah, not good enough probably doesn’t cut it.

They will get some help back offensively and some of it we have actual MLB samples for. One of which is Spencer Horwitz, who last year posted an OPS of .790 which would place him 9th in MLB if he were to be capable of reproducing it.

Nick Gonzales had an OPS of .709 last year, so again if he is capable of replicating that it would be good for 14th in baseball.

That won’t raise their overall profile as a team all that dramatically, but it would take two of their worst positions and strengthen them significantly.

I won’t guess about other rookies, or prospects here other than to say, they have a few and we’ll very likely see them come up here and change the chemistry as the season plays out.

Whew. That’s the offense. Long story short, they were god awful, rebounded to league average and have a short term chance to return a couple players and maybe move up a spot or two amongst the league.

How about the vaunted pitching? If the Pirates were going to do anything this year, it was going to be driven by the starting pitching, cause be real, league average offense was the expectation given what they actually brought in, or more aptly didn’t.

Well, let’s start with the starters.
20th in ERA with a 4.32 mark
7th in IP with 173.0
7th in HRs with 17
25th in Runs with 90
24th in Earned Runs with 83

So I glean a few things from this. One, the ERA is anything but elite, they’re throwing more innings than most teams, pretty good at keeping the ball in the park and as much as it has looked like the defense was killing them, they weren’t nearly as nicked by it as I assumed with only 7 runs not earned given up.

Losing Jones hurt, but not so much that these numbers are acceptable for a unit that was supposed to be the main reason for winning and deep enough to sustain through injury.

The bullpen evolves so much via moving parts it’s really hard to judge this way. For instance, if I simply remove Holderman and Bednar, they’re a top 10 unit, if I add them back in, bottom 10. But the moving parts around them have been changed 7 or 8 times already. Still, they rank 18th for ERA at 4.09 which believe it or not is second best in the NL Central to the Reds (3.41) who just sent their closer Alexis Diaz to the minors.

They’ll get help here too, with Moreta returning and what looks like a resurgent David Bednar, but they still have shaky spots and moving Mlodzinski back to the pen will help a great deal.

So is the season over? Well, obviously not. Is the dream of a playoff season over? I mean, if you dared to dream it in the first place, I’d say it very likely is.

.500 is probably the most attainable goal left for this club with a chance to look like a much better team as the season plays out with help coming from the minors and the team waving goodbye to awful veteran additions.

This team has some things I feel are worth watching. IF you’re asking me why I stay plugged in aside from you know, my job.

  • Oneil Cruz is breaking out, and starting to catch on in Center Field. Oneil becoming an unquestioned complete player is a huge and important story for this club, even if it doesn’t help them this year.
  • The Starting Rotation developing throughout 2025 into something less conceptual in 2026. The Pirates need to force themselves to get the growing pains over with on a few guys this year, and it might not add up to winning now. This start makes it even less hard to achieve.
  • Can they finally find traction with Nick Gonzales, Henry Davis, Liover Peguero, Endy Rodriguez, Nick Yorke, Billy Cook types? They have to have a win or two in here minimally, or we’ll be in the exact same position come offseason, relying on this team to go get what is missing en masse.
  • Do they make a coaching change? The ultimate question being answered there is, do they think the players are capable but not being used properly or trained properly, or motivated properly? The hitch here is you don’t have to know the answer, you just have to be frustrated enough to do it and find out.
  • This team has to avoid long losing streaks, and early on, they have, unfortunately they’ve also neglected to win 3 straight at any point. Can we go streaking? If we can’t, you have the answer to the headline.

I’m not trying to convince you this thing is headed in the right direction, but I am saying, they’ve already flipped the switch a bit from how they started to now. Overall, this team has to take a jump, and that won’t come playing Adam Frazier, IKF, Tommy Pham and Enmanuel Valdez 5-6 games a week. There isn’t a jump in there, just league average, IF they’re lucky.

I watch because I love the game, if I watched for chances to win it all, I’d have tuned in for 5 years of my 48 on this planet.



Starter Spotlight: Cease and Persist

5-2-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pirates fans may breathe a sigh of relief that the Cubs have left town but the homestand won’t get any easier as they welcome the San Diego Padres and former Cy Young-winner, Dylan Cease on the docket today.

Cease has had a slow start to his 2025 campaign – his second in San Diego following a trade from Chicago last spring – as he enters today with a 5.76 ERA and 1-2 record over his first 29.2 innings pitched.

Despite the bloated ERA, the underlying numbers are all in line with his career norms (career 3.82 ERA) with a 3.84 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and a 3.16 FIP, holding the 7th highest differential between his ERA and FIP among starting pitchers.

Cease has been bit by some bad luck with a .388 BABIP (5th highest among SP) and just a 61.6% strand rate (19th lowest), which both seem wholly unsustainable long-term.

Unlike most pitchers, Cease leans more heavily on his slider over his fastball. His slider sits around 89-90 that runs down and away from right-handed hitters.

He pairs that with a 4-seam fastball/sinker around 96-97 at the top of the zone and mixes in occasional low-80s curve, high-70s change and low-80s sweeper. But mainly, Cease is a slider/fastball arm.

Righties have been surprisingly better against Cease than lefties this year, especially away from the friendly confines of Petco Park.

Specifically against the fastballs, righties are batting .316 against his 4-seam and an insane .667 against his sinker and the expected numbers are not far off from this (.284 and .463, respectively) so right handed hitters should stack up well and target high heat against Cease.

Lefties are batting .333 against Cease’s 4-seamer but with a .228 xBA so I would advise to look for hanging sliders breaking inside against them. Lefties are batting just .222 against the pitch but both the xBA (.247) and xSLG (.568) are the highest for opponents among his offerings.

Cease will eventually turn things around and return to being one of the best pitchers in baseball but if the Pirates pull the right strings and target the right pitches, maybe he’ll have to wait at least one more game.

Series Preview: San Diego Padres (19-11) at Pittsburgh Pirates (12-19)

5-2-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

The Friars come to town for a three day weekend. Fresh off of a disappointing series with the division foe Cubs, Pittsburgh will look to get the ship righted before hitting the road for St. Louis.

This series sees Pittsburgh missing staff ace Michael King, but unfortunately the Bucs will still have to deal with Dylan Cease & Nick Pivetta. These two are both capable of striking out hitters in bunches and going deep in to games. To this point in the season Cease has struggled to maintain sustained success, but one look at his peripherals and you can see the danger for opposing hitters lurking.

The Cease/Keller matchup in game one looks to be a fun engagement. Mitch is a dutiful innings-eater and Cease has really not been able to do that yet. In his 6 starts he has only made it to the 6th inning one time so far in 2025. Prone to fits of losing command, Cease is a classic strikeout artist. In his 4 seasons as a full time starter he has managed to K 200+ hitters in every one. If Pittsburgh can chase him somewhat early, it will go a long way for the rest of the series.

Game 2’s matchup gives the Pirates a chance to put a lot of pressure on Nick Pivetta for Sunday. Randy Vasquez has not been particularly good in 2025. Yes, Bailey Falter has a rather ugly surface line too, but I still believe his underlying skills give them a good opportunity here.

Nick Pivetta has been a dawg in 2025. Ranking 4th in fWAR & ERA in the National League runs have been tough to come by against him. Luckily, Andrew Heaney has been no slouch either. HeanDawg ranks 14th in fWAR & 8th in ERA in the NL as of writing. While he backslid in his last start & the underlying numbers show him to be overachieving to this point there is little reason to believe that he cannot keep the team in this game and give them a chance at a win.

Make no mistake, this is San Diego ballclub is formidable. They rank as the 2nd best in baseball in team pitching fWAR (2nd best bullpen/6th best SP group). The offense is right in the middle of the pack with the 16th best fWAR on the season. In spite of this, however, over the last 2 weeks the offense has been in the bottom 5. Combine this slight sputtering with team defense that rates poorly in OAA & just about average in DRS, there is opportunity here.

I think one of the more frustrating aspects of this season for the Pirates thus far has been inability to “counter punch” after they’ve stumbled in a series. Each series I have previewed thus far I think I’ve mentioned “an opportunity.” And I believe that they exist. We as fans have yet to see them effectively or consistently land many blows only absorb them. It is a grind of a season, much like one of Rocky Balboa’s fights. But there comes a point where Rocky starts punching back & hard. Hopefully the Pirates get some shots in before both eyes are swollen shut.

5/2

Padres: Dylan Cease (R) – 1-2, 29.2 IP, 5.76 ERA, 36 Ks/12 walks, 1.62 WHIP

Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) – 1-2, 34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 26 Ks/11 walks, 1.29 WHIP

5/3

Padres: Randy Vazquez (R) – 1-3, 27.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 10 Ks/19 walks, 1.57 WHIP

Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) – 1-3, 30.1 IP, 5.93 ERA, 22 Ks/9 walks, 1.35 WHIP

5/4

Padres: Nick Pivetta (R) – 5-1, 35.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 39 Ks/8 walks, 0.82 WHIP

Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) – 2-2, 36 IP, 2.50 ERA, 31 Ks/9 walks, 0.89 WHIP

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – You can’t talk Padres without talking El Niño. Second among all batters in baseball in both fWAR & bWAR (2.1/2.4), Tatis Jr. is a nightmare for opponents. Big, strong, & fast he is in the midst of an All-Star level campaign and could even have NL MVP aspirations when the dust settles. A true star.

Also worth noting the early dominance of game 3 starter, Nick Pivetta too. Recently he as only been outshined by his teammate, Michael King, who the Bucs are fortunate to miss this go around. Pivetta is near the top of the heap in both ERA (1.78) & WHIP (0.82). He has been a little “lucky” with regards to BABIP (.226 on the season), but what he is doing isn’t exactly fluky either.

Pirates: Oneil Cruz – It goes without saying, but Oneil Cruz means a lot to the 2025 Pirates ballclub. The 2025 version of Cruz is a demon. He makes consistent, hard, high quality contact and leads the Bucs in virtually every single meaningful offensive production category. Like it or not, much of the team’s success on the offensive side of the ball rests on #15’s shoulders.

For better or for worse, David Bednar has the second highest fWAR (0.3) accumulation over the last 2 week span of games. Bednar’s return to form is good news for the team as a whole, but the fact that he only trails Paul Skenes in fWAR in this timeframe is not exemplary of a team that is getting a lot of good pitching right now. Make no mistake, Bednar might just be “back.”

Padres: Manny Machado – One of the Padres other big dawgs has been in a cold spell over the last 2 weeks of games. Just 8/43 & slashing .200/.233/.250 in that span. But Pirate pitchers need to tread carefully. His underlying numbers are pointing to significantly better days ahead.

Pirates: Tommy Pham – Not surprising to fans & not worth belaboring the point, but we are in the “Who’s Not?” section. Tommy Pham has been doing less with his current opportunities at bat than anyone else over the early going. This isn’t just limited to a 2 week period though the same can be said for that snapshot too.

Padres: Jackson Merrill (hamstring), Jake Cronenworth (rib fracture), Joe Musgrove (UCL/TJ), Yu Darvish (elbow inflammation), Bryan Hoeing (shoulder strain), Matt Waldron (oblique strain), Jhonny Brito (forearm strain)

Pirates: Jared Jones (UCL sprain), Johan Oviedo (UCL surgery/lat strain), Endy Rodriguez (finger), Nick Gonzales (ankle fracture), Dauri Moreta (UCL surgery), Justin Lawerence (elbow inflammation), Spencer Horwtiz (wrist), Tim Mayza (lat strain)

Notes

  • Things would need to go extremely poorly to see it this series, but Manny Machado is just 6 home runs away from 350 career big flies. Machado is sometimes unfairly maligned for the size of the free agent contract he signed, but he is almost certainly putting together an HoF resume up to this point.

Starter Spotlight: Rea Day

5-1-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

It’s the first day of May and while panic is setting in as the season continues slipping away, there’s always another day and another game to try to win. 

In the matinee finale of the Cubs series today, the Bucs have a chance at a series victory with Paul Skenes on the bump and will face righty Colin Rea, who enters play today with a 0.96 ERA through his first 18.2 innings this season.

He faced the Pirates twice last year while with the Brewers losing both times, going 6 innings of 3-run ball in his first outing but getting lit up for 7 runs over 5 innings the second time they saw him.

Rea is off to a strong start with a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate as he works in the zone, hits edges and avoids hard contact.

Rea has a varied pitch mix but works off a primarily fastball-heavy arsenal, leaning on his low-90s 4-seam over 50% of the time, adding a slider and sweeper (both in low-80s) as well as a high-80s cutter when facing righties while preferring to throwing low-80s curve and high-80s splitter as his secondary offerings when facing lefty hitters.

Rea typically looks to locate the secondary pitches on the outer part of the plate, trying to force batters to reach and either roll over the ball or hit it weakly. 

Either way, hitters today will either need to look to pull fastballs up in the zone or try to go opposite field with off-speed/breaking stuff down and away.

His fastball has been hit hard (92.5 average EV) and has the highest xSLG of his offerings (.446) so that should be the main one for the Bucs to target today.

He looks to get ahead early with a 77.6% first pitch strike rate so they need to be ready early in counts to do damage and get May off to a hot start.

Starter Spotlight: The Boyd is Back in Town

4-30-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Rough game on both sides of the ball yesterday but Pirates will look to end a bad month on a high note against veteran lefty, Matthew Boyd.

The long-time Tiger has a career 4.78 ERA over 11 years in MLB, totaling 936.2 innings and is in the first of a 2-years deal with the Cubs, entering play today with a 2.54 ERA over his first 28.1 frames this season.

Boyd has struggled to stay on the field the past few years, missing time due to injuries in each of the last four seasons. When healthy, his main focus is missing barrels and generating weak contact.

His 34.5% hard hit rate is tied for 14th lowest in MLB while his barrel rate of 3.4% ranks behind only Paul Skenes and Clay Holmes among all qualified starting pitchers.

Boyd has a five pitch mix including a 4-seamer and sinker in the low-90s, a low-80s slider, high-70s changeup and mid-70s curve. He has a nearly sidearm delivery on his pitches that creates slightly more inverted vertical break on fastballs but considerable deception on his breaking balls.

He has been primarily leaning fastball/ slider/changeup for his arsenal early on in the season, typically working up in the zone for his heater and staying down with his slider and change.

Boyd has struggled with locating the slider this season, frequently hanging it in the middle of the plate and resulting in a .524 oSLG against the offering while his curve has been extremely effective, with an xwOBA of .083.

In a fairly small sample size, lefties have been experiencing success against Boyd, posting a .772 OPS over 36 plate appearances compared to .682 OPS for right handed hitters over 87 trips to the dish; however, over his career, those numbers have been flipped and likely revert to the mean over the course of the season.

In the game today, Pirates hitters will need to be wary of his breaking stuff – low sliders and big, loopy curves – and try to stay up in the zone hunting the elevated fastballs or hanging breaking stuff. Boyd gets a lot of chases on his junk under the zone so keep the eye level up and look for something high enough to make solid contact against to get more than zero runs tonight.