Pirates Top 30 Prospect Trend Report

9-14-21 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

Another week down and still no changes to the Buccos system. No one got bumped or even moved up or down while keeping their FV numbers. I have to admit, I’m honestly surprised by this. Gonzales, Priester and Cruz seemed primed and now overdue to get the bump to a 55 FV. Other bump candidates that now seem overdue? Endy Rodriquez, Carmen Mlodzinski, Diego Castillo, Jarred Jones and Cal mitchel all come to mind.

And so I don’t give the appearance of being a fan boy I need to point out there are some guys that are due to lose an FV grade. Tahnaj Thomas I think is a good bet here. As is Tucapita Marcano, Mason Martin(and I say that as a fan), Oviedo for MLB results, Travis Swaggerty and Cody Bolton are candidates but that’s due to injury?

I suppose that Eddie Yean and Hudson Heads are possibilities here. But I think Head’s walk rate and power combined with youth have him hold steady there. As for Yean , ay 20 and in high A he’s ahead of schedule. He likely keeps his 40+ as well.

With out further ado, here’s the weekly updates…

1-Henry Davis – 50 FV        IL

BA/OBP/SL OPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
CPX429/429/1.1431.571.714.6632830%28.6%
Season263/375/684 1.059 .421 .424 16216.7%33.3%

 2-Quinn Priester – 50 FV ARROW UP X3

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week42.253.032.00.41214.3%4.8%
Season952.653.9644.131.1928324.6%8.7%

3 – Roansy Contreras – 50 FV ARROW UP

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week 30.000.84.3314336.4%0
Season512.292.472.78.8826535.6%5.4%

4- Liover Peguero – 50 FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week176/222/235.458.059.209255.6%33.3%
Season268/328/450.778.182.3281077.7%25.8%

5-Miguel Yajure – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week 53.606.361.602949.1%9.1%
Season373.584.744,241.09.23722.5%7.9%
MLB9.13.865.214.51.86.14323.5%8.8%

6- Oneil Cruz – 50 FV ARROW UP X2

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week333/368/500.868.167.3761345.3%5.3%
Season293/348/522.869.228.3731327.5%22.5%

7-Tahnaj Thomas – 50 FV IL

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week IL
Season605.196.805.851.58.28922.1%12.5%

8-Nick Gonzales – 50 FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week154/368/154 .522 .000 .284 73 26.3% 26.3%
Season 296/371/557 .928 .261 .396 142 9.6% 28.1%

9-Travis Swaggerty – 50 FV – Out for the year

10-Bubba Chandler – 45 FV – ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week000/125/000.125000.097-4912.5%87.5%
Season172/294/310.604.138.2966814.7%44.1%

11-Ji-hwan Bae – 45 FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week333/391/333 .725 .000 .335 107 8.7% 8.7%
Season276/358/396 .754 .119 .338 109 10,4% 22.1%

12-Brennan Malone – 45 FV ARROW UP, incomplete

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBABIPK%BB
WEEK3000    0
CPX10.15.23 1.16 .19427.3%15.2%
Week – A3.20.007.61 9.12 2.45 .333 10% 25%

Quick note, fangraphs has not updated Malone since his Monday start. 3 IP no runs, one hit, 5 K’s and BB. Great work, arrow up!

13-Hudson Head – 45 FV ARROW UP X2

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-211/400/474 .874 .263 .41214120% 28%
Season-210/364/398 .762 .189 .36711416% 31.6%

14-Cody Bolton – 45 FV -out for the season

15-Maikol Escotto – 40+ FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-313/389/375.764.063.3721175.6%27.8%
Season-243/368/357.726.113.35510715%30.7%

16-Anthony Solometo – Nothing Yet

17-Jarred Jones – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week1.227.0012.813.00.2860%25%
Season624.503.953.761.47.39630.7%9.3%

18-Carmen Mlodzinski – 40+ FV IL

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week IL
Season49.13.284.353.991.22.29832%9.4%

19-Canaan Smith-Njigba – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week – (IL)
Season.286/.403/.427.830.14137213216.1%25.8%

20-Lonnie White – 40+ FV – ARROW DOWN

BA/OPS/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week000/125/000125000.097-4912.5%50%
Seaon174/240/391.631.217.286688%44%

21-Rodolfo Castro – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week188/278/313.590.125.2696411.1%27.8%
Season258/314/458.771.200.3321056.6%20.9%
MLB198/258/395.653.198.282756.5%29%

22-Diego Castillo – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week182/250/455.705 .373.304830%25%
Season – AAA308/441/615.1.057.308.44617617.6%14.7%
Season – PIT282/342/445.787.164.3431128.3%7.4%
Season-NY277/345/504.850.228.3671288.4%12.7%

23-Rodolfo Nolasco – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week167/231/500.731.333.315797.7%30.8%
Season266/395/508.902.242.41613815.9%27.4%

24-Jared Oliva – 40+ FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week409/435/5911.026.182.4481770%22.7%
Season274/340/397.737.123.328997.1%27.9%
MLB175/233/225.458.050.215207%23.3%

25-Endy Rodriguez – 40+ FV ARROW UP X3

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week387/457/6771.135.290.51021011.4%14.3%
Season294/384/508.893.215.41014012.2%18%

26-Mason Martin – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week200/261/250.511.050.234408.7%30.4%
Season249/327/494.820.244.3511198.3%33.7%

27-Jose Soriano – 40+ FV – Out for the season

28-Luis Oviedo -40+ FV – MLB

29-Cal Mitchel – 40+ FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week400/538/400.938.000.44017723.1%7.7%
Season285/337/441.778.156.3391106%16.4%

30-Eddy Yean – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week118.006.816.00.5560%10%
Season645.345.324.711.41.26824%13.4%

I’d consider this to be a tougher week for the top 30. A few good weeks out there though. This was aa long weekend so I’ll keep the highlighted prospect short and sweet.

When the Joe Musgrove trade broke Joey Lucchesi a LH starter was reportedly headed to Pittsburgh as part of the return. When the smoke cleared and the details become official Lucchesi headed to the New York Mets and they sent one Endy Rodriguez back to Cherington to complete the deal. This final detail looks better and better as the weeks go on. Endy is an extremely athletic guy behind the dish and it looks like the Bucs will take advantage of that athleticism and move him to OF or 1B. (Side note, the development of Eli Wilson, trade acquisition of Carter Bins and drafting Davis make his an easy choice)

The power is developing for the 21 year old back stop/1B/OF. With 43 extra base hits good for an OPS of 893 backed by a solid ISO of .215 and a 140 wRC. Over the last few weeks Endy has really started to click. His slash line over the last 3 weeks:

385/481/708 with an OPS of 1.188

His approach appears to be a big part of his success with a walk rate of 12.2% to an excellent 18% K rate showing he has patience and great eye. His BABIP is at .335 and is in line with his .294 bating average, so we aren’t looking at luck here. These are stats we can sink our teeth into making Endy a great candidate for a FV bump and I wont be surprised to see an aggressive bump to a 45+.

That’s it. See ya in a week as we approach the end of the MiLB season!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

9-13-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates have entered that part of the season that is far too familiar in these parts, irrelevancy due to the NFL fully getting in motion, coupled with not being in the conversation themselves in the first place.

This isn’t a boo hoo pay attention to the Pirates plea, instead it’s a reminder that when the team performs, there is plenty of room for both in the picture, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. Want to be relevant, play like it.

In other words, it’s not on the fans to find their way to care through it. All that being said, there are still plenty of you out there who do, and we’ll keep covering them with the same gusto we always have, win, lose or draw.

1. Hayes at Lead Off?

I mean, it’s hard to see this as a long term answer, but it’s certainly jump started Ke’Bryan. The Pirates have no answer to lead off that he’s blocking in any way but you have to imagine when this team is successful he’s hitting lower in the lineup.

That said, Derek Shelton has worked with some managers who treat the lineup in very non traditional ways like Joe Maddon, I mean, if Kyle Schwarber can hit leadoff, Ke’ certainly can. In fact, most of what Shelton does is being done in bits and pieces all over the league, but we as Pirates fans have had 10 years of old school management preceding his arrival to compare and contrast with.

I’m not here to tell you it’s better or worse, at least not today, but I am here to say, we’ve been largely trapped in time while the league morphed behind our backs. Modern baseball coaching has caught many of us completely off guard. Again, I’m not telling you it’s better, just maybe not one guy being stupid.

Expect to see even more ‘weird’ moves as we continue this process, and expect Shelton to be the source at least for another season.

Watching a game here and there out of market won’t show you this, watch an entire week of games from one specific team, like Tampa and you’ll see some things that look mighty familiar. You know, with the exception of the fact they seem to work for the other team.

2. Pigeon Holed Promotions

The AAA season matches up with MLB this year, end time wise and we have been told we may see some promotions from AA after the Curve’s season ends. That’s about all we’ll see, and I’m not sure why they’d wait if indeed it’s in the plans.

There is not much to be gained by continuing to play in Altoona as the playoffs aren’t in the picture, and they’ve already taken things past the period where there’s room for adjustment to the bump for most guys.

There are any number of guys we could question, Rodolfo Castro has officially had two cracks at MLB and hasn’t set foot in Indianapolis yet for instance.

The way I see this playing out is a rash of players winding up on IL in MLB and AAA with AA used as reinforcement to finish this thing out.

Now, I think they could have been a bit smarter with what they’re doing here, at least could have used the time a bit better to see if some guys might have more of a chance to get their feet wet before we head into an off season that’s going to see some of them prepare for a Spring Training that for the first time really matters to them.

Oh they all matter, but they also don’t always mean they have a real shot of breaking through, that’s where this really means something. Sure would be nice to say you have 2 months of AAA experience vs none or a couple weeks come Spring.

This isn’t the end of the world mind you, it’s just something I guess I hoped would change a bit. It’d be different if there weren’t any players who have earned a bump.

3. Engagement is Earned

As I said in the opener today, it’s not on the fans to fight their way into being interested in a team that loses 100+ games. There is a lot of positive to point to in the minors, but again, that’s not on fans to go find.

The Pirates have set forth on a path that should create a much more competitive team and when that day comes it again won’t be on the fans to go back and tell the story of how they got here.

The point is, to some of you who will follow intently throughout this entire process, you’re going to run into a bunch of people somewhere along the line who didn’t, and more than that, don’t give a rat’s can how it happened.

They aren’t going to want to hear how the plan worked, they won’t care about the economic efficiency with which it was pulled off. Hell they might even still be talking about how quickly it’s all going to fall apart again.

We spend so much time worrying about how other people do or don’t watch, we fail to observe the near empty stands all around us. When they win, the place will be packed, 15,000 people will tell you they were there the whole time.

It’s not like we haven’t lived through this before. Just remember, when it does again, it’s not your fight. No, that’s the team’s burden.

4. Preventative Measures Become Self Fulfilling Prophecy

All season long the Pirates have played fast and loose with the IL, especially when it comes to the pitching staff. They all but told us this would be the case early on when they quoted a large figure for the number of pitchers they planned on using this season.

Part of me wonders, has it worked? Or did we simply wind up in the same place anyhow?

Babying pitchers didn’t help Brubaker avoid running out of steam, and we’re all sitting here hoping his injury isn’t something that will prevent him from a normal off season.

Thing is, and I admit, there isn’t anything scientific about what I’m proposing here, but I can’t help but think that by trying to protect everyone, they’ve actually created more stress than they prevented. Nobody gets fully stretched out, nobody reaches their potential, kick the can of “they only ever threw this many innings” straight into next year.

Look, all I’m saying is maybe nobody is improving because they aren’t being forced to fight through their deficiencies. Maybe a guy with two good pitches hasn’t bothered refining a third because they have no prayer of seeing the 6th inning or a 3rd time through the lineup anyhow. Maybe 85 pitches through 4 innings is the norm because that’s been a-ok anyway. If you head into every start knowing after 65 or 95 pitches you’re done through five regardless, what’s the incentive to be more efficient?

I fully accept that I might be completely full of it here, but man I can’t shake it.

5. Roberto Clemente Day

I love that the Pirates will again be celebrating Roberto Clemente Day and wearing 21 on the 15th.

I hear all your calls to retire the number of the Great One league wide, and honestly, I’m torn. Part of me would love to see him recognized league wide, he was such an important figure to so many Latin players all over the league, not just Pittsburgh, but to me, man I kinda selfishly want to keep that for Pittsburgh.

Having Roberto as part of our heritage is special. I’m all for retiring the number but I’d really like to see ONLY the Pirates get to wear the number once a year.

I’m open to hearing different opinions here, after all, I’m just some white guy who never actually saw the man play, maybe there’s an argument that because of what he means to others he should be honored league wide. All I can say is, selfishly, there isn’t much the Pirates are recognized for, I’m not anxious to see other teams stake claim.

Regardless, let’s enjoy the day, remember the man, and more than anything, appreciate that as great as he was on the field, he was that much better off it.

Pirates Can’t Capture The Elusive Sweep

The revolving door of the Pirates pitching staff has continued to rotate, and will more than likely remain in motion over the next few weeks as injuries persist, arms reach their limits and three to five inning starts remain the norm; not that this number has deviated very far from the medium throughout the season.

So, in essence this afternoon’s game against Nationals, as well as the reports that surfaced surrounding a certain Pirates high leverage pitcher, flawlessly encapsulated what has been going on since Chad Kuhl first took the mound on a windy day at Wrigley Field back in April.

Today’s starting pitcher, Bryse Wilson, had already been shutdown once due to arm fatigue, reliever Sam Howard-who made an appearance in the 9th inning-was recently activated at the end of August following a full month on the shelf, the often hidden Rule 5 Pick Luis Oviedo made his third appearance in a week after totaling only six during the previous month and newly acquired Connor Overton was recalled to make his Pirates debut less than a week removed from being claimed off of waivers.

It was the mix matched bunch if I I ever saw one, and we as Pirates Fans have truly seen a lot; which at times seemed like it would be able to grind its way to Pittsburgh’s first sweep of the season, in its thirteen attempt. Although, in the end it was all for not.

Wilson fell apart in the top of the 4th by giving up two additional homers and Oviedo got touched up when he came back out in the 7th, while Overton and Howard tossed scoreless frames; supported by a mere five hits, with no real offense coming beyond the 5th.

News and Notes

  • The aforementioned high leverage pitcher, who came into the news today, was none other than David Bednar. Following the game Manager Derek Derek Shelton made it known that Bednar was unavailable due to right side discomfort. Having already pitched 57.2 innings this year after throwing only 6.1 this past year, maybe Pirates Fans shouldn’t get so upset about not hearing Renegade as often as they want to.
  • As far as all of the popular Pirates Fan projections circulating the internet are concerned, Kevin Newman is the current starter who is most regularly left out of any future lineup. Now, for what it’s worth, Newman has slashed .258/.289/.441 with 2 homers over his past 30 games; and as much as some would like to see him unseated, this is the furthest thing from a guarantee at this point.
  • Anthony Alford has created another curious set of circumstances with his .262 AVG, .828 OPS and 5 homers since being called up toward the beginning of August, good for a 120 wRC+. Unfortunately he has also struck out 41.9% of the time and only walked to the tune of 3.2%.
  • The Pirates were 3 for 21 in the series with runners in scoring position. On the season they have have cumulative batting average of .214 in this exact situation, with almost twice as many strikeouts (307) as walks (154).
  • On the Minor League Front, Ben Cherington reported that some Double-A players could still be in line for a call-up to Triple-A with Altoona’s schedule ending after just one more 6 game series; even though it would only be for a couple of weeks.

The Pirates have an off day on Monday before their pitching staff is subjected to thirteen days straight, with first game against the Cincinnati Reds; a team they will play 9 times before the end of the season.

On Tuesday at 6:35 PM EST Dillon Peters (0-2, 3.38 ERA) is set to take is place on the bump for Pittsburgh, against fellow lefty Wade Miley (12-5, 2.89 ERA) for Cincinnati.

Pirates Overcome Nationals 10-7

9-12-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I knew this day was coming, everyone did if we’re honest. It’s been in the back of our minds for weeks if not months now. I told myself this is a baseball site, and I had no reason to write about anything other than baseball.

Then I thought, well maybe I can write about baseball being part of the aftermath, George Bush’s first pitch, the Subway series, the air of emotion all over the stadium when the games resumed.

I just couldn’t.

I sat here staring at my screen, thinking of ways to make my scrambled thoughts come together and mix with my emotions to somehow land on a baseball column, but all I could think about was how incredibly fresh this wound still is.

The unity of the aftermath was a warm hug. And as we read the names you never hear Republican, Democrat, Black, White, Gay, Straight, Pro-Choice, Pro-life, after each one, or any of the things that make us all different, just Americans.

The Pirates put together a pregame event that really showcased that, and I’ll be honest, I needed it, truly touching, truly beautiful.

Now, as to the game itself, Wil Crowe started off very well, dominant even through three innings, unfortunately he was not capable facing the lineup twice, a theme we’ve seen with him repeatedly leading many to categorize him as a bullpen candidate.

He would only last 4 innings, responsible for 3 earned runs and the bullpen would leak in 4 more over the course of the game.

But the Pirates brought the wood. Well, the Pirates brought patience predominantly, drawing 10 walks and putting up 10 runs with only 7 hits as the Nationals kicked the ball around on top of giving up free bases.

Remember the Posey Rule? Well this is when it applies.

After the Nationals took a 5-2 lead off Crowe and Banda…

And of course Gamel…

The Pirates would add more as the Nationals completely imploded in the 6th.

10-7 and after the 6th this thing was never really in doubt.

News & Notes

  • Welcome back Steelers! Have a great season.
  • That’s 23 homeruns and a 5.1 WAR for Bryan Reynolds this season. 150 hits, .300 average, he’s every bit the star Juan Soto is for the Nationals.
  • Hoy Park was on base 4 times with 3 walks and a base hit. He’s been quiet since returning from AAA and it was good to see him get back to being patient.
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo walked 3 times in this one.
  • The sample size is just too small, but it’s been a different offensive team for the most part since letting Rich Eckstein go. I can’t imagine this is anything more than it just happening, but at the end of the year if it continues it’s certainly going to be a talking point.

Pirates Go Down Early, In More Ways Than One, And Come Back Late

Over the previous two seasons-2019 and 2020-Steven Brault, when healthy, was the second best starter in the rotation; totaling 1.9 fWAR behind only Joe Musgrove (4.2), while posting a 4.23 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. At times Brault showed brilliance on the mound, as the self proclaimed pitching machine, as evidenced by his 2 hit, 8 strike out complete game against the Cardinals in his second to last start in 2020. Other times he would absolutely wear one, like he did in 2019 when he gave up 10 runs on 8 hits-5 of them for homers-in less than 3 innings against the Cubs.

Banished to the bullpen, and even optioned to Indianapolis in the beginning of 2019 as he was fighting for the fifth starters spot with Nick Kingham, Brault became a shining star for Pittsburgh on the mound and with the microphone; singing the National Anthem before Pirates game on a semi-regular basis. However, for all his fight, and charisma, he has regularly fallen victim to injury; hence the caveat, when healthy. Since becoming a regular member of the rotation in 2019 Brault has started 36 games and pitched a total of 166 innings; which is still behind two pitchers-Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams-who weren’t even on the team this season.

Nevertheless, there was always the hope that he could become that veteran presence in the rotation; especially after his career best 3.38 ERA last year. But unfortunately, the injuries would always come; just like they did the past two Spring Trainings, and just like after two innings pitched last night when he was removed from the game with left arm discomfort.

Luckily for the Pirates, their bullpen was up to the challenge-one they have been forced to face more times than they probably care to remember-starting with Cody Ponce’s 3 scoreless frames, and capped off by Chad Kuhl’s no-hit ninth; which ended up putting him in line for the win when Ke’Bryan Hayes eventually walked it off for a 4-3 victory in the bottom of the 9th.

News and Notes

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has reached base safely in 13 out of his last 14 games. Over his last thirty he is batting .270, but only has a .688 OPS as most of his hits have been of the base knock variety and his walks have been limited. However, this is still a drastic improvement over another 30 game stretch, from the end of June to the beginning of August, where he was batting .202 and accumulated a .556 OPS. Finishing out the season on a high note is extremely important for individual players like Hayes.
  • As a team, the Pirates only struck out one time, while also only drawing 3 free passes and going 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position. Sometimes, you have to take the good with the bad.
  • Over his last seven games Anthony Alford is batting .280 with 4 homers. However, since coming back up from Indianapolis, he is still striking out at a 34.1% clip while walking only 4.5% of the time. It truly is all or nothing with Alford’s swing at this point. Here is an example of the all.

  • During the previous day the Pirates put out a video homage to the Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 Draft Class. The production was first class, and the message was one of inspiration and hope for the future. However, for me the actual release of it was ill-timed. It has been two full months since the draft, the Pirates #1 overall pick Henry Davis is on the shelf for the remainder of the Minor League Baseball Season and there are pictures and articles circulating the internet concerning attendance; especially from the Pirates series finale against the Tigers from just a few days before, when Pittsburgh former top prospect and once touted “ace of the future” got hit all over the place by Miguel Cabrera and Company.

  • And of course Josh Bell hit a homer in his return to PNC Park.

The Pirates and Nationals are back at it again today at 6:35 PM EST at PNC Park.

For Pittsburgh, Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.94 ERA) toes the rubber against former Dodgers Top Prospect-acquired in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner Trade-Josiah Gray (0-2, 5.65 ERA) for Washington.

Dynasties, All Stars and ETA’s…Oh My!

9-10-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

When you go through two seasons like this, and everyone and their mother has shifted their gaze on the minor leagues, of course things were going to shift to those players being in Pittsburgh.

Thing is, wishing won’t make it so.

Looking at the rotation in Greensboro and expecting 4 members of the rotation to reach Pittsburgh as an intact unit is about as likely as me winning the Power Ball, and I don’t play. To pretend that means a dynasty for Pittsburgh is a sure thing, is beyond nuts.

Some will say, what’s the harm in a little optimism? Nothing, I’m pretty optimistic too, but when you do this sort of thing, when you are trying to forecast how things will go as this process plays out, I think you have to have a bit of responsibility about it.

If I tell people what I’m seeing in the minors adds up to 3 runs at championships, why would you trust me when it’s dead wrong? I’ll put it this way, I wouldn’t even predict the Dodgers are poised to be a dynasty, not in baseball.

Being realistic about what we’re watching may not be as fun, or what you want to hear, but I personally would always prefer the truth. Let me take in the facts, process it and figure out how to feel about it from there.

So let’s look at what we really have here, right now.

A very bad MLB level ball club, with very little at the AAA level ready to help next season, even if they were, they’d be rookies and most rookies, well they play like rookies. They hit walls, they still have things to work on, they recover from the biggest jump in surrounding talent they’ve ever experienced in their careers.

Next season, AAA will become more of what we traditionally would like to see a step away from the Bigs. For me, that’s where I leave things. Some of them will get a crack next year, some will stall out.

This is why you don’t worry about where Tucapita Marcano will play for this club what with Diego Castillo, Liover Peguero, Oneil Cruz and more on the way too. I mean how many short stops can they have right? First, if all of them hit, the club will find a place for all of them to play. Second the likelihood that all of them become MLB quality players isn’t high.

That’s reality, and while I’m not predicting doom for any one of those players, I’m also not predicting each of them is the next HOF talent to come along.

You do a build like this and you have to stop worrying about these guys blocking each other, at least until it’s an actual problem. More than anything you have to stop convincing yourselves every prospect in the top 30 will be here playing an integral role. I’m not sure how you’ve been a Pirates fan and believed that in the first place.

I mean, you’re watching Mitch Keller right now struggle like hell to find his sea legs at the MLB level. Maybe he just isn’t that good, maybe the development system failed him, maybe he never had to have more spin or movement in the minors but is now seeing it’s 100% needed at this level. Either way, right there, is walking, talking evidence that the rankings aren’t an iron clad contract for success.

Again, I think Ben Cherington has done a good job of not stopping at some mythological roster he’s created and needs to grow, so I’m not worried about the Pirates plan here. I’m worried about an already beaten to hell fan base getting themselves worked into a lather about a future roster that probably doesn’t look exactly like anyone sees it right now.

You won’t care if they win mind you, but some of these guys failing is part of the process.

If this club gets to a point where they actually struggle to find a spot for a really solid prospect that’s the goal. Depth, options, real position battles. Guys underachieving at the MLB level looking over their shoulders at surging push from AAA. That’s what makes a club like this work. It’s also something we didn’t see even during the run early last decade. The team was the team largely, with not much coming up beyond it. Think of what a significant injury to AJ or Frankie would have done to those runs.

You’ll know when it’s happening.

When you look at the roster and actually find yourself ok with that AAA guy staying down there for a while because there isn’t a place for him to play, you’ll know they’ve gotten this thing to a point where you can start saying “built”.

That’s not next year, it just isn’t. Now, I’m a firm believer they need to put a better product on the field next year, and I’ll write to that as the off season progresses, but wishing hard is simply not going to speed up a process that was and is slow.

If you want lied to, I guess there are plenty of writers out there who’ll have no issue telling you Nick Gonzales could be the opening day starter in 2022. That just isn’t me, I’d rather prepare you for seeing Kevin Newman start at short.

This isn’t MLB 2021 The Show for PS4, it’s not fantasy baseball, it’s a real and complicated process that involves ups and downs, injuries and setbacks, huge games and hitless streaks. Stacking prospects is an insurance policy. They don’t do it to avoid paying anyone, they do it in the hopes enough of them require payment that it matters.

Baseball is a hell of a game and prospect development is even more complicated. I advise you to keep an open mind about who makes it and matters, it might just not be who you had in mind.

Jack Herman Is Benefiting From A Hard Reset

9-9-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

As soon as the Minor League Baseball season was officially canceled on Tuesday June 30th, 2020, fans, as well as scouts and amateur/professional experts, knew there was going to be an effect on development; especially on the individual level.

Not every player would have the opportunity or ability to participate in the group of the international baseball leagues that continued with either full or modified schedules, while others would fail to be added to alternate sites or fall instructional league roster for any number of reasons. And with many gyms being closed or being in an area without direct access to a pitcher, catcher, coach, etc., all too many Minor Leaguers were left without places to workout, receive firsthand instruction, get in live at bats or face direct competition in any meaningful way. For many this would equal approximately 18 months of missed experience and development.

Inevitably, when baseball did resume, plenty of players would return with an almost unlimited variety of adjustments to their game and/or changes to their physical appearance; including-but not limited to-a new swing, extra muscle, an additional pitch, different arm slots, appearing more lean, running faster or logging slower sprint times. In some circumstances these transformations would immediately be labeled as positive or negative; and explained away as due to the amount of and/or lack of effort. Moreover, for some there was no noticeable change, which would also end up being categorized as good or bad, or identified as being caused by hard work or laziness.

Yet, whatever the cause/reasoning(s) behind how each individual showed up to their team’s facility, in the end, judgement always comes down to the lowest common denominator of performance; so, naturally it was somewhat of a waiting game to see how a player executed, once he was back on the field in an actual competitive setting.

By now we already know some Pirates Prospects, like Matthew Fraizer, came out of the gate firing on all cylinders; while others, including Jack Herman-a player who I was high on entering the 2020 season, as evidenced him being incorporated into my original prospect series for the SI/Maven Inside The Pirates website-that struggled from the word go.

Initially drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 30th Round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft, 894th overall, the 18 year old, 6’0’’ 190 pound outfielder from Eastern High School in New Jersey was coaxed away from his commitment to the University of Maryland by a $50,000 signing bonus; and the opportunity to start his professional career, which ultimately began with his assignment to the GCL(Gulf Coast League) Pirates less than three weeks after his selection.

In his first 37 games and across 169 plate appearances, Herman would go on to slash .340/.435/.489, with 2 HRs and an almost identical walk to strike out rate (13.6% and 14.2%). Due to this level of performance, Herman was rewarded with a spot on the Baseball America Top 20 Prospect List for the Pirates, as well as being named to the GCL All-Star Team.

Ultimately this immediate success at Pirate City, would also earn him a pretty quick promotion to the Greensboro Grasshoppers-Pittsburgh’s Low-A Affiliate at the time-the following season at only 19 years of age; approximately 2.5 years younger than the average player at that level.

During his year with the Grasshoppers, Herman did struggle at times. A 29.3% strike out rate obviously left a lot to be desired, but fortunately he was able to make up for it in almost every other facet of his game; both at the plate and in the field. On the season he posted a .804 OPS, a 134 wRC+ and an .208 ISO to go along with 13 HRs. While on defense he split his time almost right down the middle between LF and RF committing only 4 errors the entire year, completing 130 putouts and being a part of 11 outfield assists in 612 inning; allowing his strong arm and speed to guide him at each of these positions.

It was at this point in his career, where I caught up with the 29th ranked Pirates Prospect according to MLB Pipeline; predicting that he would more than likely find himself back in Greensboro, with the expectation of him working his way up to then High-A Bradenton by the end of the season. This was in part due to his age, but also because of the other outfield prospects that were more advanced, and were not all guaranteed the bump up to Altoona after finishing the 2019 season in Bradenton- #4 Travis Swaggerty, #5 Cal Mitchell and #15 Lolo Sanchez

Which brings us up to near present day, or at the very least the beginning of the current Minor League Baseball season, when Herman was assigned to the Greensboro Grasshoppers yet again. Although, this time it was a promotion to High-A; a situation that did not turn out so well for him.

Through the first 15 games and in 52 at bats, Herman accumulated 6 hits-3 of them for extra based-while striking out 26 times and walking only twice; good for a .115/.148/.173 slash line, and resulting in the Pirates hitting reset button on his season by sending him down to Pirate City on June 6th with the FCL (Florida Complex League) set to begin on June 28th.

For nearly an entire month-from his last game on June 2nd to July 1st-Herman was able to work on getting right with himself, and hopefully getting back on track before his debut with the FCL Pirates Gold. Luckily, this is exactly what happened.

Over 8 games in a Pirates Gold Uniform, Herman batted .360 with a 1.168 OPS and a couple homers; rapidly causing the need for a promotion back to a familiar level (Low A), but in a new site (Bradenton); where his re–established success continued to a certain degree.

Since joining the Marauders on July 13th, he has proceeded to slash .274/.346/.532 with 12 homers in 186 at bats; earning the Low-A Southeast League Player-of-the-Month award for August by leading all hitters in runs (18) and RBI (23), finishing second in both batting average (.326) and hits (31) and winding up third in the league in home runs (five), slugging (.547) and OPS (.928).

Unfortunately for Herman, in spite of these achievements, his K rate has found itself climbing back up over 30%; which he will eventually have to get in check if he wants to make a triumphant return to Greensboro at the beginning of 2022.

Pirates Fail Again to Finish Sweep, Tigers Prevail 5-1

9-8-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Mitch Keller, man ya know what, sigh…..

like, he had an exceptional curveball tonight, but… he didn’t place it, often leaving it about 3 inches too high.

He had good life on his fastball tonight, but… it had no movement and doesn’t fool anyone as to whether it’s coming or not.

His changeup is really good most nights, but… tonight it was up a touch, just like the curve.

His slider was just infuriating, he painted the outside corner with it to lefties, but… to righties he couldn’t hit a single target.

That’s Mitch Keller. That’s who he’s been. A guy with great stuff, but…

Nothing matters until hitters can’t figure out if the pitch coming is off speed or his fastball. It’s hard to watch some nights, but really watch him. Really pay attention to the ball leaving his hand. He’s doing a good job with his release points, so the tunneling isn’t an issue. But, to continue the theme here, pay close attention to how early you, sitting on your couch with your dog begging for table scraps and your wife talking about her day, are able to recognize fastball or off speed.

It’s instantaneous.

Now if we can see it that fast, how fast do you think professional hitters can pick it up? I’ll be honest here, I just don’t know.

He has me grasping at straws, and if Marin can’t get through to him, maybe they need another voice. I’m not even calling for a firing here, just an assistant. If they insist on giving him another half season, and yes, I probably would too, they can’t afford to skip any chance at making it work.

Now, the game itself, really there wasn’t much more than Robbie Grossman and Miguel Cabrera each collecting 4 hits each. This was death by a thousand cuts tonight.

Another failed attempt at getting a sweep. A fairly anemic showing by the offense, which hasn’t happened an awful lot lately.

Final Tigers 5, Pirates 1.

Pirates are off tomorrow and Shelby Miller is looking for someone to golf with on Twitter. Yup.

News & Notes

  • This is the 12th time the Pirates have had an opportunity to sweep and failed. The club still has no sweeps on the season.
  • Another really nice outing for Luis Oviedo tonight. He’s been impressive, like first outing this season impressive.
  • Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons (former Bucs GM) and Marvin Miller (Ushered in the most powerful player union in sports arguably) were all inducted into the hall of fame from 2020 today.
  • 67th time this season the Pirates have allowed 5 runs or more.

The 2022 Pitching Staff Needs Investment, but What Kind?

9-8-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I just finished writing my Five Pirates Thoughts at Five on Monday, an entry I had talked about needing to not go into 2022 with the same issues or holes on the roster. Having prospects you believe in is great, but that’s different from relying on them.

2022 is a year where the Pirates will have to strike a balance, they still need to make room for young players to have opportunity, but at the same time they must also secure some semblance of professionalism for the few answers they’ve already found. It’s either an investment of time or money, maybe both.

Pitching is really where this issue shows best, because they have a ton of guys who could factor in, loaded with even more excuses or explanations as to why they deserve more time. Of course there could be trades, maybe even should be, but we simply won’t know that for a while and for the purpose of this piece, let’s pretend everybody stays.

Let’s also presume the league will land on 12 or 13 pitchers as a rule.

One of the things I think this club needs this off season is 1 or 2 starting pitchers. I’ve said it over and over, so have many of you. In fact I get that comment from you all just about every time I write a game recap.

So let’s start with what they have.

Bryse Wilson, Steven Brault, Dillon Peters, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Miguel Yajure, Wil Crowe, Max Kranick.

Those are all guys who appeared this year, and the team probably wants to see more of. You can and almost assuredly do disagree with a name or two there, but the team will at least head into next season thinking their starting rotation comes from this group.

Toss in prospects who could truly challenge for shots at it next season like Roansy Contreras, Cody Bolton, and a stretch here, Omar Cruz.

That’s 11 pitchers, who will first, need protected, and second aren’t good enough to constitute an MLB starting rotation. At least not based on what we’ve seen so far, you have to leave room for improvement.

Now, assume they’ll augment this group, because even this season that has been horrendous, they added Tyler Anderson, Chase De Jong and Trevor Cahill prior to Spring Training ending. I’m not even going to hazard a guess at this point as to whom that might be, but I do assume they’ll add at least one, maybe two.

So it stands to reason, some of those 11 I listed aren’t going to get an opportunity, at least not immediately. Some of them are easy, like Wil Crowe, hell I didn’t even mention Chad Kuhl even though the team and he haven’t admitted this is a full time move to the bullpen.

Chase De Jong who was injured is probably not in a class with the rest of that group either. Point is you can whittle this list down pretty easy to 5 guys you individually think should start, but it’s still going to force some holding back of guys you want to see, or quick decisions on guys the team would be borderline irresponsible to give up on already.

Spring will be a competition, and I suggest some of these players will wind up finding a role in the pen, but if they bring in two vets to take a slot that would mean only 3 of those 11 get a shot out of the gate.

So who are the locks?

Bryse Wilson, Steven Brault and Mitch Keller probably fit that bill for me. Bryse has just plain been solid, the first real example of an actual baseball trade by this organization since Cherington joined the ranks and he’s looked like a good acquisition so far. Steven (should he remain on the club) has more experience than just about anyone on the staff, and after a normal and full off season the hope would be he gets back to what he’s been here, someone you can count on for most of his outings.

And that leaves Mitch, yeah, I know, but I simply can’t see how he doesn’t get next year, at least at the beginning. It makes sense if you let it, sending him to AAA doesn’t help him, more importantly it doesn’t help add or subtract him from the list, moving him to the pen is premature but after a poor start could be warranted.

Notice any names I had to leave off for mystery free agents? JT Brubaker who had a strong first half and hit a wall after he surpassed his largest inning load. Miguel Yajure who probably would have been here on a more permanent basis already if it hadn’t been for injury. Dillion Peters who only has 4 starts with the Bucs but has looked nothing short of solid.

It’s tough.

You don’t want JT in the bullpen, he’s a starter and he’s also not a guy in possession of traditional bullpen stuff. I mean sure, a long man, but how many of those do you need?

Max Kranick has some things that make him super interesting, he jumped all the way from AA to MLB, a 97 MPH fastball and a decent handle on his breaking stuff. He needs refined but this isn’t a guy you flush. He is a guy you could reasonably start in AAA and call on later, but he’s arguably in the same boat as Yajure.

So again, there’s a balance, you don’t want to hold guys back, but you don’t want to go into a season relying on a bunch of potential. Look at the benefit this club got from half a season of Tyler Anderson.

I’m definitely not saying they should avoid bringing in competent starters, but I am saying this gets weird quick. The point of building is eventually to get what you’ve built to the Bigs, so somewhere along the line, you kinda have no choice but to trust the youth.

So what’s more important? Continuing to try kids out, or bringing in more proven commodities so the team starts feeling like it’s headed in the right direction?

Most teams will lean toward the proven commodity, and I’d advise the Pirates to do the same, but don’t be shocked if that drags out the process a bit on some younger guys.

Even something as simple as upgrading a roster from the outside creates an entire ecosystem of questions, concerns and in some cases other moves. The economics of baseball are one thing, but these types of decisions are just as important. This is where you show your chops as an evaluation system, where you show how much you trust your development.

Rarely are these things as simple as here’s a hole, we need to fill it. How do you think they should proceed?

Pirates Battle Back Against The Tigers

9-8-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

The rest of this season for the Pittsburgh Pirates is a time for evaluation, much like the entire year has been; not only for the players that could be a part of an undetermined future date, but also those that can help bridge the gap for when the wave of prospects is scheduled to arrive. This extremely obvious by the way Pirates Fans, including myself, talk about players that are currently on the roster, as we evaluate performance.

During last night’s game, one in which Ben Gamel had three hits-including the eventual game winner-and made another highlight reel catch that potentially prevented the Tigers from extending their lead, some Pirates Fans on social media commented that he would make a solid 4th Outfielder. Now, I’m not saying I don’t agree with the sentiment, or believe that he wouldn’t be on a competitive team; however, as it currently stands he is our second best outfielder, and in turn our second best outfielder going into next season if the Pirates choose to tender him a contract by the arbitration deadline.

The potential first wave of outfielders are sitting in Altoona, with another potential member of that wave-Travis Swaggerty-on the shelf in Indianapolis. Sure, they’ve got some versatile players who can fill in the holes in right or left field-pretty much where Gamel isn’t-on any given day, but not one that can play there everyday; and they certainly don’t have two, to eventually relegate him to to the bench.

The same type of scenario goes for a conversation that myself, Gary and our friend Graves were having concerning Dillon Peters last night on Twitter. Some of us are more bullish on Peters, but as Gary pointed out, it has only been four games; and of course, last night wasn’t especially inspiring at times. In those four starts, Peters has pitched 18.2 innings, struck out 15 and posted a 3.38 ERA to go along with his 1.29 WHIP; the last two obviously being career bests that don’t even come close to matching up with his track record. Will he be any good? I don’t know. Will he revert back to his former self; the one he had been with the Angels and Marlins over the previous 4 seasons? It’s possible, and more likely assumption for a 29 year pitcher, who has yet experience success in the Majors.

All the same, the Pirates will more than likely look to fill out a 5 to 7-and seven might be generous-man rotation again next year. My hope is that they would look to add another Tyler Anderson type free agent in the off-season, but neither Chad Kuhl nor Steven Brault have been the picture of health, and are not guaranteed to be back; plus Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Max Kranick’s consistency is a big question mark. So, once again they will be looking for fillers; one of which-Peters-they may have already found.

Obviously, none of these conversations regarding players that can bridge gaps, or fill holes, is particularly exciting, especially when it doesn’t necessarily bring the Pirates any closer to competing. Yet, these are the discussions that will continue to happen until Pittsburgh is hopefully on the verge of competing again.

News and Notes

  • The Pirates left 14 men on base, and were 2 for 13 with Runners In Scoring Position. This is clearly not the recipe for continued success, but it was good enough for a 3-2 victory over the Tigers.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes is “back again”. Any time Hayes has a couple of good games in a row, Pirates Fans begin to pine for that month stretch he had back in September of 2020. Is Hayes a really good player? Yes. Was he always going to be the starting third baseman for the Pirates? Yes, almost without question. Has Hayes ever been anything more than a .270+ hitter, with an .OPS around .750 with 5 to 10 homers on average in his entire professional career? No. Is that a bad thing? No, Hayes is a good ball player.
  • David Bednar made his appearance in the 8th inning of last night’s game with the heart of the Tigers lineup due up as the Pirates clinging to a one run lead, and I am here for it. Anyone who knows me, knows my opinion of the closer role in baseball. Up by a certain amount of runs, 9th inning, game on the line, entrance music blaring over the PA System and your best reliever, who no one can touch, enters to a sea of screaming fans. The theater of this situation is pretty cool; I’m not gonna lie. But, the number of times that it happens in a season, and the limited scenarios where the fate of the game is actually on the line, makes it overdone and overplayed. A situation, like the one last night, is much more likely in the 6th, 7th or 8th inning. Use your best relief pitcher-in this case Bednar-and make sure your team is still in a spot to win; not just wait around for the perfect set of circumstances.
  • And clearly, the decision to use Bednar in the 8th and Chris Stratton in the 9th worked, for those who were ready to crucify Derek Shelton for yet another pitching change blunder. Stratton is your second best reliever; he should be able to handle the 9th as well; particularly against the back of the order.
  • The Pirates have yet to complete a sweep, not even a two game “series”, at any point this season. Yes, the Pirates are bad, but so are a lot of other teams. Even they have have been able to experience some sort of extended success over at least a few games. Maybe that’s why this season feels so long.

The Pirates and Tigers have one more 6:35 PM EST tonight from PNC Park before they each get a day off.

For Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.23 ERA) looks to make it two straight solid starts, while Matt Manning (3-6, 6.29 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit.