Diego Castillo Has Seamlessly Transitioned Between Organizations

Almost a month ago at this point, General Manager Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates made one of the more surprising trades surrounding the impending deadline; exchanging the services of Clay Holmes to the Yankees for a pair of intriguing prospects-the first of whom Pirates Fans have gotten a first hand look at, in the form of one Hoy Jun Park. Over his first 16 games with Pittsburgh Park has played all over the field, while batting .222 with a single homer; which had kind of become his calling card in Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, where he had hit a career high 10 in only 171 at bats.

For Park this offensive outburst was honestly, unexpected, and he has obviously cooled off a bit since then with some time to regain at least some semblance of what he had been in Triple-A, but if he doesn’t no harm no foul.

Now the second prospect in the deal, Diego Castillo, was one that had some built in fascination simply because he slotted into the Fangraphs Updated Prospect list at #22 for the Pirates. However, much of his past performance and potential future roster complications were overlooked, even by me to a degree, due to his slash line of .278/.345/.504 with 11 homers-more than his previous five seasons in the Minors combined-this season with the Double-A Somerset Patriots.

Originally signed by the Yankees in December of 2014 for $750,000 out of Barquisimeto, Venezuela at the age of 17, Castillo steadily rose throw the ranks of their farm system from the Dominican Summer League in 2015 to the High-A Tampa Tarpons in 2018; even though his overall value dropped from 130 to 83 wRC+ and his power failed to develop as his ISO hovered below .100 for the most part, his defense (see below) and his overall approach at the plate (10.4% K to 6.4%) still made him an interesting prospect. However, it did not earn him his next promotion; staying with the Tarpons for the second straight season in 2019.

Then came the layoff, in what would have been his sixth season in the Minors; although he did get credit for it. But, more on that later.

In 2021, Castillo came back with a vengeance, or maybe the power just finally developed, as he is only in his 23 year old season; hence the interest from Cherington and company thanks to his 11 homers and .228 ISO as the ground balls decreased-a pattern that actually started in 2019. And fortunately for Castillo-and the Pirates-there has been no drop off from Somerset to Altoona. In 21 games and 81 at bats, he has blasted another 5 home runs, walked (8) more than he has struck out (7) and kept his average (.284) and ISO (.222) pretty much on the level.

Nevertheless, there is an impending decision coming just after the end of the season that could make this burst of excitement from Pirates Fans all for not. One that many may not be aware of.

Remember, when I made note of Castillo’s accrual of a sixth season in spite of the Minor League shutdown? Well, that would make 2021 lucky number 7 for the soon to be 24 year old Venezuelan. To the causal fan this might not mean much, but to Mr. Castillo it means eligibility for free agency five days after the World Series concludes as a Rule 9 (formerly a Rule 55); and potentially a significant pay bump for the first time in his career.

As a Double-A player Castillo is more than likely scheduled to receive a salary of approximately $12,600. This would increase to around $14,700. Now, as a Minor League Veteran Free Agent it is possible that he could see this at least double, or increase significantly more if he is in high demand.

So, what can the Pirates do to prevent this from happening, if they were inclined to do so? The simplest answer is add him to their 40-Man Roster, which may need to happen anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 draft; albeit, it is not his first go-around in that arena. The only other option is a successor contract prior to free agency. In order for this to happen Castillo would have to see the Pirates Farm System as the best opportunity for him, both on the field and financially.

Simply based on his production over this season, I want to see more. However, the 40-Man Roster has limited spots, and I’m not sure if I have seen enough; if that makes any sense.

Luckily, there is still over a month in the Minor League season to evaluate his performance before Cherington has to make this decision.

Friday Focus: Why Did the Pirates Retain Ka’ai Tom?

8-20-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

No matter how many examples we’ve seen this season that DFA doesn’t stand for GFG (Gone for Good) the Pirates still get some shock when they decide to retain one. In fact of all the position players the Pirates have DFA’d, every single one of them has cleared waivers.

Now, one of those players most recently was Ka’ai Tom.

I’m confused.

I was of the belief he was given a good shot. 39 games, 117 plate appearances, .152 batting average.

If Tom was showing something special that simply needed refined, I could get behind it. I guess you could say having a batting average of .152 and somehow racking up an OBP of .308 is impressive, but even so, I can’t see a path for him to return to this roster.

The rest of this year can’t be the reason. You got Ben Gamel, Bryan Reynolds, Your favorite Polanco, Hoy Park, Yoshi Tsutsugo and Wilmer Difo all here right now, all able to play. They’ve even got Anthony Alford ready to come off the IL, who I also think they should wash their hands of but that’s another piece.

It can’t be to fill AAA, they’ve got Tucupita Marcano, Phillip Evans (another DFA return), Jared Oliva, Hunter Owen, Chris Sharpe and Bligh Madris. Not a group that’s going to inspire many to clamor for their call up but for the rest of this season it’s fine.

So, why retain Tom?

Is it for next year? Man I hope not.

Even if you told me everyone I listed for AAA would be cut by the end of the year I’m not sure I could justify Tom staying and you can toss Travis Swaggerty’s return in 2022 into this discussion too.

Next year, maybe not day one but during the 2022 season I expect Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cal Mitchell, Matt Frazier maybe even Jack Suwinski to move up. And I know for damn sure 90% of you expect Oneil Cruz to be playing out in the outfield too.

You can go ahead and assume not all those AAA guys are getting cut. Now add in all the AA guys I just listed. Where does Tom fit?

Look, none of this really matters. If they just want him around as a warm body who’s played in the league a bit, so long as he doesn’t block anyone that matters, fine. It’s not like you’re going to have to protect him in the rule 5 draft.

I guess I’d just like to see a bit more decisiveness. Here’s a guy we tried out, it didn’t go well, let’s move on. Maybe that’s just the fan in me as opposed to the analyst. That tends to happen when the analyst side of me can’t make sense of something.

Maybe I’m just picking on an unpopular guy here. I mean you don’t see me saying anything about retaining John Nogowski.

Well, Nogowski I can make sense of. Mason Martin is the next real 1B prospect and he’s got some things to work on, unless you count Michael Chavis. After Will Craig was cut loose Christian Bethancourt has played most of the reps at first, so I can see why they might want to hang onto a guy who has played in the league, had a bit of success and can more than handle the position.

How about Erik Gonzalez? He cleared and was retained too. Keeping him I can honestly make the case it’s nice to have that MLB glove hanging around. The way he plays defense is nice just to have young guys see and be around.

Ha, know what maybe I am just picking on Tom.

It gets to the point where as a fan, I almost want rewarded with an outcome after being forced to watch him play this year. You just want to see the team definitively say, yup, there is a baseline, this guy didn’t reach it, move on.

I suppose I should be grateful they aren’t making rash decisions, that’s not good either, but progress doesn’t happen without change. Change doesn’t often happen in baseball without moving on.

Logan Hofmann Is Prime For A Promotion

8-19-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

It has been over a year since Logan Hofmann was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 5th Round (138th Overall) and almost 10 months since I first heard from him and ultimately wrote about his journey; from the small town of Muenster, Saskatchewan (population 430) in Canada to another in Colby, Kansas (population 5,387, then up to Falmouth in the Cape and way back down to Natchitoches, Louisiana and finally to Pirate City in Bradenton for the Fall Instructional League where I caught up with him.

Throughout this entire whirlwind process, including signing with the Pirates from his family’s back porch, Hofmann remained cool, calm and collective; which is something that must be second nature to him, as anyone who has watched him talk the mound would surely agree.

Not an opposing figure on the mound at 5‘10” and 190 lbs, the 21 year old hurler is extremely deceptive in the delivery of his low 90’s fastball-often described as an invisible pitch due to its spin rate and 12-6 wipeout 75-77 mph curveball.

Starting out the season out of the bullpen, Hofmann struck out the side in his professional debut on his way to a 7K/0BB/1H/0ER stat line over the final 3 innings of Bradenton’s May 5th contest with the Fort Meyers Mighty Mussels.

For the next month plus he would continue to work out of the bullpen with very similar results, proving that the first outing was clearly not a fluke. In 21.1 innings of relief work, across 8 appearances, Hofmann struck out 33 batters, walked 9 and allowed only 3 earned runs on his way to a 1.27 ERA with a .94 WHIP; ultimately earning himself a spot in the starting gig for the next eight times through the rotation.

As a starter, Hofmann did experience some troubles as he saw his ERA rise to 2.95 due to a 4.01 ERA over that timespan. However, his WHIP only rose ever so slightly to an even 1.00, and he continued to sit batters down to the tune of 10.7 K/9; including 9 in his last outing. Nevertheless, in his last appearance on August 14th, he once again found himself coming out of the bullpen. Not to be discouraged, he went four innings, struck out three and didn’t allow a run as he and Jared Jones combined for a seven inning scoreless piggyback in the Marauders 2-1 10th inning walk-off win.

Now, we all know by this point that performance, especially simple numbers in the lower Minors, is not the only driving force behind promotions. If it were, I could see a few guys, including Hofmann, that could have been given the bump at least a month ago. Yet, they still remain; hopefully not for long as you would think Ben Cherington and Company would want to stick to the line of challenging players, which is not happening very often for Hofmann.

Maybe, just maybe, he would get that more often while wearing Grasshoppers orange and green, but I guess only time will tell if Hofmann will get his chance this year.

MLB Needs a Salary Cap, Half Measures Won’t Work

8-19-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Ahh CBA time.

Time for relentless leaks of proposals meant to get a reaction from one side. Sometimes to get fans to react. Everyone wants to be right, everyone wants to be seen as the downtrodden.

MLB proposed a salary minimum of $100 million funded by new tax on teams spending $180 million.

I’m not going to waste much time on this. It’s a faux cap, and worse, it’s essentially something that will create European style soccer relegation. It basically just creates a new zero.

This won’t happen, and even if it did, it wouldn’t fix the problem.

Some of you in this market see that salary minimum and get all excited and think Nutting will get his or he’ll sell the team. If you think that’s what this is all about, stop right here and pretend this is your plan. I’d caution you though the funding mechanism is quite literally built on the ability and willingness to ignore the faux cap.

I feel like I’ve written about the need for a salary cap so many times nobody could possibly want to see it again, but many have asked me to, and this can’t be ignored, more than anything, nothing short will truly fix the game.

What’s Broken Really

First of all, it’s not the Dodgers. Most people will simplify it to one team being able to spend that much money but they’re following the rules. They’ll pay the luxury tax they owe, and they can’t have 30 players on their roster or something. I don’t blame them one bit.

You can do all the creative math you want to illustrate that every team could spend whatever, but it’s simply nowhere near equitable. You can talk about how much more Bob Nutting could spend, and you’d be right. What you can’t do however is fool anyone into thinking a team like Pittsburgh could survive one season of going over the Luxury Tax threshold, even if you believe they could get there in the first place.

Could they get there though? Sure. Go find me a bunch of players who want one year 25 million dollar contracts, because they certainly couldn’t sustain it for two years. Oh you’d find them, Kevin Pillar would love to take 20 mil for a season. I’m sure once the payroll is up there they’ll be in the series.

Oh the Dodgers develop better. Sure do. They also get to hide any failures they do have and more than that, when they develop someone, they get to pay him 25 million per over 8 years. If they’re wrong about that player they can afford to just cut him and move on. Places like Baltimore spend a decade recovering from trying and signing one bad player.

The Pirates swing and miss on a couple first round picks like Cole Tucker and Will Craig and set the organization back for a decade. LA misses on a couple first rounders and they just trade someone young and good for Mookie Betts and an aging star pitcher they don’t need.

Have a hole, trade one of your highly developed prospects you don’t need for someone else’s star who might not even play every night for you.

This is all about local TV money, and it’s not something that even has potential to equal itself out. In other words, Baltimore can’t reasonably be expected to get a TV deal in the galactic neighborhood of LA or NY. Tampa can’t either, nobody said you couldn’t find a way to live with it, but they have next to no allegiance to their market and fans reward this first place team with 5,000 member attendance figures on the reg.

The League talks about expanding, but talent is already spread thin (you know, some teams can afford to have David Price in their bullpen), and markets who could actually compete are even thinner.

What’s the Fix?

A real salary cap SYSTEM. A hard cap SYSTEM. Why stress system? Because any one of the three components alone is a failure. Any two of them are a failure.

Set it wherever you like. 200 Mil, fine. 215? That’s fine too.

Resist the urge to tell me there needs to be a floor. These things literally don’t come without one. This is the insurance that the revenue sharing dollars are going back in. The spread from top to bottom can’t be more than 20-25 million.

It’s a balance. All three work in tandem.

Let’s see, what else do you guys say to me all the time? Oh, I know, parity. Parity already exists because it’s not like the Dodgers or Yankees win every year, in fact they rarely do. Right. They don’t, once you get into the playoffs anything can happen. Some teams don’t have to tear down to the studs every ten years for a 3-4 year window that gets them a ticket to the dance. Oh and that’s if there isn’t a misstep, see Tucker and Craig.

Right now Cody Bellinger is a comparable baseball player to Gregory Polanco. Bellinger makes 16.1 million and Polanco makes 11.6. Which team is hurt more? The inequity shows up for most people in the final salary figures, but the reality of the situation is that it shows up in every decision made by these teams.

It keeps some from giving a guy that extra year or two to close a deal because they can’t risk having the player be a paperweight in his age 37 season.

If you can’t see the need, you don’t want to.

The Hard Cap keeps the talent base balanced. The Hard Floor keeps teams from hording money that was shared in good faith. And finally the sharing makes it possible for every team.

At the end of the day, everyone makes more money because markets that don’t ever compete can and markets that already do still can.

The Players Will Never Agree

Right. It’s 100% true.

This has always been and always will be about the owners. If they want a cap, we’ll have a cap. I’ll explain that a bit more but first let’s take the real news from this leak, the league (aka owners) are finally acknowledging there is a problem. Now that doesn’t mean enough of them agree on the proper way to fix it, or that they possess the will to get it done, but simply proposing something like this at least acknowledges there is a problem here and to have it reach this point, it’s not just the small market teams who see it.

Now, this isn’t going to be some proposal where the players are happy and sign on. You can tell them to look at the NFL and how much Patrick Mahomes makes but it won’t matter. At the end of the day, they’ll see it as artificially controlling salaries. The amazing thing about pro sports is how the unions convince 99% of the players to keep things cool for the 1% who get those top end rates.

If the owners want to institute a salary cap system the only ones who need to agree are them. Build it out so it makes economic sense for everyone just like every other professional sport has (although the NBA has one that stopped short) and lock the players out.

This might cost you a season, but in the long run it will save the game, and help it grow.

The players aren’t going to accept the leaked proposal, they’ll see it just the same as the actual cap I just put forward. Now knowing you’d have to lock them out to get it done, it certainly can’t be for some fake fix to the problem.

You Just Want the Pirates to Win!

Guilty.

This isn’t a guarantee in any way.

Look at the NHL. Loads of teams that can’t get out of their own way. A salary cap doesn’t make a team good at doing the work. What it does is make every team in the league capable of cultivating a star and keeping him.

In other words, this isn’t solely to see one team do better. It’s because competition should be based on organizational excellence rather than demographic advantage. A smart GM should be limited by his or her own skill set, not hamstrung by his ability to stretch a dollar.

This agreement needs to fix a ton more than the economic system in MLB. They need to find a better way to compensate minor league players and they need to deal with the amount of time players are tied to a team after debuting. These are changes that can’t be done without a system that makes it possible. See as much as you admire the Rays for working under this system, take away a year or two of control over young players and it all crumbles like a house of cards.

There is a very real need to make MLB a more viable option for young athletes. This is key for expanding the game and it’s key for players to be able to believe they won’t eat PB&J for 4 years and sleep in their car just for a shot that after another 5 years they could really get paid somewhere. Again, wanting a salary cap isn’t about screwing the players, it’s about improving opportunity by providing more landing spots and potentially making the path less punishing.

What this is about is that in a real league that actually has equity, your complaints about Bob Nutting should be more about his hiring abilities than his wallet.

Is it Going to Happen?

Probably not. The stomach for shutting down a league that just went through losing an entire season for the most part I just can’t imagine being that strong. But if the players come to the table looking for a bigger piece of the pie (having virtually no clue how big the pie is with closed books) it could happen.

A strike or threat of a strike won’t scare anyone in the league, they’d love this to be the player’s fault. But a strike also won’t solve the problem. A lock out on the other hand would set the table.

If it doesn’t happen, I expect a bunch of placating moves. Expanded playoffs to get the small to mid market teams to shut up and be happy with a chance that .500 gets you a playoff appearance to sell to your market. A year less control on young players. Things like that.

The problems won’t go away, they’ll just shift.

If you want real change, I’m afraid it doesn’t come without giving up something we all love for a while. If that’s not a price you’re willing to pay, stop pretending you want a cap, cause it isn’t gonna happen without it.

I’m going to go forward covering this team one way or another, and I believe what they’re trying to do is the best path under this system, but man it’d be nice to believe a team like Pittsburgh or Baltimore was on the same competitive level as every other team instead of waiting and praying for the stars to align.

Pirates Swept By Dodgers 9-0, Brubaker & Homeruns is a Thing

8-19-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The thing with JT Brubaker is, I get the impression most people want to give him benefit of doubt here. Oh, don’t get me wrong, Bob from Bloomfield always knew he stunk I’m sure.

Most people tend to give him credit for throwing a ton more innings than he has since 2018. Even those folks have to be alarmed by the homerun figures.

28 homeruns given up in 116.1 innings isn’t just a little bad, it’s disqualifying of everything else he’s done and here’s the thing, it’s a problem he’s literally not had before. His worst total was 15 back in 2016 in 129.2 innings split between Low and High A.

I guess we can say some of it is attributed to being tired, but it’s hard to put all of the blame there, after all you don’t give up that many bombs and have just started a few starts back.

Now, what should they do?

They want to stretch him out, but they can do that without trotting him out once a week to add to his record. And where is Oscar Marin? At some point someone who makes way more money than me, and, um, actually works for the team is going to have to start asking questions like that.

Hell, toss Eckstein in there too, 3 hits last night. And it’s not like they faced Kershaw.

News & Notes

  • Colin Moran has a knack for being the only one to get hits during these contests where they’re kept off the board.
  • Luis Oviedo has now had 3 straight scoreless outings. This would hardly be news for most relievers but this is still good to see.
  • Sam Howard will be back very soon. That’s good news.
  • Blake Cederlind only 5 months removed from TJ surgery has resumed playing catch.
  • Chad Kuhl threw a live BP yesterday signaling his imminent return.
  • Bryse Wilson threw a side yesterday and should also be eligible soon.
  • Anthony Alford has resumed baseball activities and will join the team in St. Louis.
  • Yesterday MLB leaked a proposed lower luxury tax and salary floor. This is a joke for a ton of reasons, not least of which being it won’t happen. I’ll get much more into detail here soon.

The Pirates Keep Kicking the Tires, but Are They Overdoing It?

Evaluation.

It’s been a keyword since Ben Cherington first publicly shook hands with Travis Williams and Bob Nutting. This was meant to be who was already here, as well as new guys they brought in. Now, my question is, if you bring in too many do you ever really get a full evaluation of anyone?

Recently the Pirates passed the franchise record for number of players to appear in a season at 56, and I’m under no illusion they’re done. This number could easily reach 60.

I mean, that says more about the roster as it was constructed to begin 2021 than an overall philosophy. In other words, I’m sure they weren’t hoping to reach this record.

I should also say, this is a direct response to having very few prospects who were close to making the show. Even if you believe they’d have been better off going that route, you have to understand that MLB franchises aren’t happy to risk a prospect they truly believe will matter on plugging a hole. Doesn’t mean they’re right, but it’s a thing almost all of them share.

So, let’s look at the outfield. I could do this for any number of positions but the outfield will adequately tell the story I’m trying to get out here.

We all knew this team had a big hole and back then we thought it was in Center. OK, we all thought it was in Right too but let’s calm down for a second and allow this story to unfold because with only one open slot they still ran through a gauntlet of failed prospects, players with stunted growth, heck players that didn’t even play there. I mean when you really look at it thank god they didn’t see it as two open slots.

I figure the best way to do this is to look at who they tried and how many games they actually took to, um, evaluate. And I’m not going to bother with John Nogowski’s 1 inning in Right.

Brian Goodwin – 0 Remember him? Didn’t even make it out of Spring, doing ok with the White Sox now. I don’t blame the Pirates entirely here, he clearly wanted nothing to do with proving himself on a team that had nobody.

Dustin Fowler – 18 Yes 18 games and 46 PA, that was all it took to know they’d not be using Fowler. Keep in mind here, I’m not trying to make the case they were wrong on these guys.

Anthony Alford – 16 And he got two stints, currently on the um, IL. Now in AAA, damn that’s a player. You guys like to call folks like this quad A players.

Troy Stokes Jr. – 8 And a whopping 20 PA. What a showcase of talent.

Ka’ai Tom – 39 Fan favorite Blaze got himself 117 PA with the Bucs this year easily the most of any of the cast off types.

Ildemaro Vargas – 7 Now I list him because much like every infielder they’ve brought in here he was asked to play 2 games in the outfield too.

Hoy Park – 15 He’s played almost everywhere, 8 times in the outfield. He’s also still active which makes him the first on the list who is still writing his story.

Wilmer Difo – 79 Again, he’s played just about everywhere, but 12 of his games have been in the outfield. He’s still here and done pretty well in a bench role but even he cleared waivers to remain with the organization.

Phillip Evans – 72 He’s played all over (sensing a theme?) and 29 of those games were in the OF. Might have stopped at 1 if Bryan Reynolds hadn’t been there to hook a brother up with sunglasses.

It’s kind of incredible I’m not done yet isn’t it?

Jared Oliva – 20 Of everyone I’ve listed, Jared is the only one you could have come into the season saying, hey, he’s a real prospect. He was hurt in Spring and he never really got much traction. He was up with the club a lot longer than his participation numbers would lead you to believe.

Hunter Owen – 2 I mean, what can you say, he got two games, super early in the season, got banged up and never came back.

Ben Gamel – 73 And all but 9 innings have been in the outfield. Those 9 innings at first base filled another hole I’m not going to get into. He’s stuck, first one on the list aside from Park you can really say that about.

Oh of course you have Reynolds (117) and Polanco (98) but they aren’t really the point here.

The point is, how do you expect to evaluate when so many on this list barely had what used to constitute a cup of coffee? I mean don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Alford, Fowler or Owen really required much more to fully decide, but why did Tom get double the opportunity Alford and Fowler were afforded? I guess you could say he was at least getting on base but c’mon, nobody serious thought we were watching a guy on the cusp of breaking out.

To me, this parade was an embarrassment. I’m all for kicking the tires on guys, but actually kick the tires ya know?

Thing is, I guess you could say they assumed Travis Swaggerty would be ready and promoted at some point. That’s a fair assumption, and thank god Cleveland cut Gamel loose after barely using him.

Can next year be different? I mean can we see holes and maybe not address them with a parade of guys we hope might manage to find their way to replacement level?

This team doesn’t need to go get a star, but they can find guys like Gamel who are already established MLB talents. Guys like that provide a real baseline for prospects to beat out. For instance, if next year the Pirates head into the season with Reynolds, Gamel and say Michael Taylor, they won’t be great, but Travis Swaggerty would have to actually do something to get his playing time. More importantly they wouldn’t have to desperately scour the waiver wire snatching up every dude who get’s cut loose by teams cleaning up their roster.

I’m not saying they should stop looking, but let’s start treating this like more of a professional baseball team than a proving ground for other teams failed prospects.

What they’ve done certainly isn’t wrong for a club in their position. But after 2 seasons of watching them try to find magic with no wand, maybe just give in and buy the trick kit from the book store.

Give these pitchers a chance at a competent offense. Give the hitters you do have a chance to play in a lineup that supports their efforts. 2022 isn’t going to be the finished masterpiece, nor does it need to be, but it should start looking more like progress is being made.

Injuries happen, that’s a different story. That’s not what caused what we’ve seen in 2021, and there’s no rule in rebuilding that you have to make sure everyone you try is a gamble. Sometimes setting a low bar is good enough. Nobody gets blocked, and at worst you tend to have a professional.

I’m not one of these guys who thinks the club needs to go get a big free agent at this stage, but I do think we need to stop feeling like everyone they try might not hit .250 in AAA.

Pirates Lose By One For Second Straight Night

8-18-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

On the season, including last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a Major League best +195 run differential. On the other side of the coin the Pittsburgh Pirates have been out scored by their opponents to the tune of -182; only being outdone by the Baltimore Orioles at -218. However, for the first two games in this too late for the majority of people in Pittsburgh-I watched it this morning-series, the Dodgers only hold a two run advantage over one of the worst teams, record wise, in all of MLB.

Now, this isn’t meant to confuse you into thinking that the Pirates could somehow compete with the Dodgers of the world, it is just an observation as to how finicky a baseball season can be, why it is a marathon and not a sprint and how different team performances can be from game to game and series to series.

Is it because the Dodgers are conserving their energy against a lesser opponent? Are they going through a rough patch of their own in this grind, where they are squeaking out wins in spite of some players struggling? Do the Pirates play up to the competition, which allows them to hold their own?

Honestly, I don’t know; and probably because I am writing about this, the Dodgers will ten run the Pirates by the third inning tonight; and truthfully I wouldn’t be shocked.

News and Notes

  • The Pirates aren’t alone in getting top prospects to reach their potential, at times, once they reach the Big League Club. It is just more noticeable, as well as detrimental, when there hasn’t been a line of Minor Leaguers-or a potential big name free agent signing-to fill the gap/void. On the season, former top prospect Gavin Lux is slashing .224/.304/.345 with 6 homers, a 81 wRC+ and a .7 fWAR-less than one game better than a replacement level player.
  • Wil Crowe burnt himself out in the first two innings by throwing 58 pitches, many of them high leverage in the second by being able to strand runners on second and third. The Dodgers would get to him in the fourth with a bloop single to center, ultimately ending his day with a line of two runs on five hits and 4K to 2 BB after 85 pitches. Unfortunately the immediate relief from the bullpen didn’t hold up, but this one isn’t on Shelton, and this isn’t baseball from days gone by. 85 pitches in game, following season where hardly anyone was fully stretched out and threw a minimal amount of innings and an arm they are trying to conserve, whether you agree with it or not, is about the highest you are going to see from a Pirates hurler for the remainder of the year.
  • Back to back nights with a double for Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. I am not looking into this too much or predicting great things for the Pirates most recent acquisition. He has a lot of pop, but a decent amount of swing and miss when he is struggling. He’s just another player to watch for the remainder of the season.
  • Speaking of players to watch; Bryan Reynolds came through with an RBI double from the right side of the plate, Ke’Bryan Hayes has a nice little 6 game hitting streak going on and David Bednar struck out two in the 8th and didn’t allow a run to afford the Pirates a chance of coming back in the 9th.
  • On the Minor League front, First Overall Pick Henry Davis homered for Greensboro.

Tonight at 10:10 PM EST-or 5:30 AM EST for me on the replay-the Buccos and Trolley Dodgers are back at it to close out this three game set.

JT Brubaker (4-12, 5.13,ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh against the dreaded TBD for Los Angeles.

He’s a 2! He’s a 4! How About He’s Just Good Enough?

8-17-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

You know, something strikes me when we talk about pitching here in Pittsburgh, specifically starting pitching. Everybody wants to label everyone some imaginary number, or give them some title like Ace.

So I was watching Steven Brault pitch against the Dodgers and commenting about how mature he looks, and almost immediately I’m met with “he’s a good number 4 or 5 nothing more”.

You’ve heard this I’m sure. Isn’t it funny how it’s always number 4 or 5? Never a 3. Nobody is ever a 2. It’ s Ace, 4 or 5, that’s the only possible place anyone who starts can land.

OK, so it annoys me for reasons just as stupid as the sentiment, sue me.

The fact is, if I had a starting rotation filled to the brim with Steven Brault’s I think I’d wind up pretty happy. He may not be an ace, but he’s going to give me a chance to win just about every single night.

Is that a 4 or a 5, I’ve lost track.

See, to me I just want to know if the guy is going to help me when he’s on the mound. I couldn’t care less if you call him a number. I don’t like Ace either. For instance, AJ Burnett was the Pirates Ace during the last run, probably a 4 o 5 on the Cardinals at the time. Did that make him less of an ace in your mind?

Gerrit Cole was drafted to be an ace, had the pedigree and the arm. The trouble in this market is, he’ll never reach his true ‘ace-ness’ if you will, before it’s time to move him. Yes, even Mark Cuban would not pay a 300 Million dollar ticket in this market. This bought him criticism aimed at his effort or some made sure they blamed Searage, in reality Cole pitched like a rookie, a good rookie, but a rookie. Slowly improved and looked like he had figured some things out by his 4th year, and then it was time. Maybe a year early.

Doesn’t mean Cole wasn’t good here, but if you think he ever reached ACE here, eh, I’m not sure I can get there.

Point is while you worry about what number a guy is, I’m thinking about how much I want to find some of those guys who just belong in the rotation.

Quinn Priester is the next expected ace, and he’s got just about everything you want. Presence, pedigree, repertoire and he’ll be here in a couple years. I expect when he does arrive he’ll do ok, but he won’t be the top of what his potential says he will. Chances are that takes a season or two, if it happens at all. In fact I’d be kinda surprised if he reached his full potential while here.

Oh I know, that’s not pleasant to think about, but if you want to know why I don’t get mad when it happens, it’s because I’ve long since prepared for it.

Sit there waiting for all these guys to come up and slot into your imaginary place in the rotation if you want, I’d rather just focus on having five I feel good about.

I’ll tell you what, even that method might be nuts. The way this team is handling it’s pitching staff, chances are starters don’t have as much to say about the rotation as they used to anyway. 5-6 innings (those are numbers that matter) and hand it off to the bullpen isn’t just the way the Pirates are headed, it’s how baseball is headed.

Want to know why? Oh sure to keep them healthy that’s part of it for sure, but it’s also because there aren’t a bunch of teams who can afford to pay 300 million for one guy even fewer who want to. Making pitching staffs more interchangeable reduces the value of those players and makes them more replaceable too.

Think about it. When is the last time you watched a no hitter where it didn’t feel like the pitcher was equally battling the opposing hitters and his pitch count? Hell, forget no hitters, think about how much the game has changed when you see a guy pitching a 7 inning 1 hitter pulled with 78 pitches. Nolan Ryan wouldn’t even have broken a sweat yet.

Craig wrote a great piece this morning about predicting the rotation and lineups a couple years from now. One of the things I think we’re all going to have to stop holding onto is the belief we’re just going to have a 5 man rotation and be done. I don’t just mean accounting for injury either. I think we’ll start to see teams heading into seasons with 8-10 guys who could really play a role.

You may not think Max Kranick is a number 2 or whatever, but you better bet on him being one of the guys who at some point will have to take the ball and, well, keep the ball rolling.

Hey, the whole 2,3,4 thing, that’s just a pet peeve of mine. The larger point, don’t be so willing to dismiss what a guy can offer this team just because he doesn’t fit where you think he should. And don’t discount the value of a guy like Steven Brault, there’s value in good, there’s value in consistent.

The Pandora’s Box Of Pirates Roster Projections

Pandora’s Box is a relic from Greek Mythology that when opened, released sickness, death and other unspeakable evils into the world. As the story goes, the act of opening what was in reality a jar-not a box-happened because Pandora herself was curious as to the contents contained inside. Of course when she realized exactly what she had done she hastily attempted to close the lid, leaving only one thing behind…hope; or if you are a pessimist, it could be translated into “deceptive expectations”.

Now, as I am very aware, the simple act of attempting to project the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for 2023 and beyond will not release any sort of sickness, death or unspeakable evil onto humanity. However, they often used as a tool-by experts and amateurs alike-to give hope for the future; or for the more cynical in nature…deceptive expectations.,

What actually got me thinking about this, more than the normal fan like myself sharing our thoughts, was expert Jonathan Mayo from MLB Pipeline sharing his thoughts on the Pittsburgh’s Starting Lineup for 2023 during the AT&T SportsNet Pirates Broadcast on Wednesday Night.

In theory, and in practice, this type of activity is fairly harmless, if looked at through the proper lenses; including those that do not see this lineup as the only option, ones that do not see any other version of the Pirates lineup as a failure, a lens that does not take the ETA’s of particular prospects as gospel and most importantly those that avoid equating this future alignment as a successful one simply because it is filled mostly by top prospects-current and former.

Unfortunately, as this exercise is deployed, it is often prefaced with several caveats that request you to toss away any of these potentially unfavorable optics in order to glean hope from the conceivable accomplishments-ultimately a World Series-a lineup of this magnitude could bring back to the city of Pittsburgh. And, if you dare question the process of how this great feat will be achieved, it is obvious that don’t know how any of this works; even if you point out facts like the overall success rate of prospects or faults in any particular player based on actual stats.

I mean, what could go wrong? Aside from injury, players not reaching their perceived potential, never being able to develop that third pitch, inability to fix a hole in their swing, exploitation of a weakness as they move from level to level, poor decisions on and/or off the field, lack of confidence, getting a case of the yips or countless other reasons as to why prospects fizzle out before or after they arrive in the Majors.

Hence, the rationality behind General Manager Ben Cherington’s continued acquisition of prospects at every position and level by any means necessary and watching the waiver with reckless abandon searching for lighting in a bottle or a discarded gem in an effort to maximize the probability of being successful with strength in numbers.

So, hope for impenetrable lineup, rotation and bullpen if you will, predict the World Series contending lineup if you must and scoff at anyone who attempts to rain on your parade at all costs if you so choose, but please don’t ask me what I think of a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for 2023 or beyond when I can hardly envision exactly who will take the field on October 3rd to close out the 2021 season.

Pirates Drop Series Opener to Dodgers 2-1

8-17-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Steven Brault is hardly the best pitcher to ever wear the black and gold, but as we have watched a good baker’s dozen of starters filter through this rotation in 2021, his veteran presence is too apparent to dismiss.

He just seems to be at that point where a pitcher really understands himself and is able to gather himself and attack. Last night, that led to 5.2 innings of 3 hit ball and unfortunately for Steven the Dodgers were able to do the same largely on the back of rookie Andre Jackson.

Both teams had five hits, both teams should have had 2 runs.

Rodolfo Castro had another rookie moment, failing to tag and score on a sac fly in the 7th that would have made it 2-0 is certainly the biggest missed opportunity but the bats were relatively quiet all night in LA as the evening air was knocking just about everything down.

That didn’t stop Max Muncy and Brian McKinney from hitting solo shots to defeat the Pirates 2-1.

These two square off again tonight with Wil Crowe facing David Price at 10:10 in LA.

News & Notes

  • I want to continue to see Hoy Park play a bunch, but in his 14 games and 53 ABs for the Pirates his .245 BA, .288 OBP and .388 SLG isn’t exactly matching the number of people I’m seeing who want to write his name in pen for next year’s lineup.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to make adjustments and last night it resulted in getting on base 3 times. The young man looks much more comfortable at the plate.
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo had his first pinch hit for the Pirates last night and doubled.
  • This was a well pitched ballgame for the Pirates but the long ball has bitten them all season. Tonight it was two solo shots coughed up by Banda and Shreve.