Wainwright Shuts Out Pirates on Two Hit Effort, Cardinals Win 4-0

8-11-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Wil Crowe pitched his ass off tonight.

Oh his line wasn’t great, 4.2 innings, 3 walks, 1 run allowed, but he had all his stuff working and really had the 2 seam fastball just biting in on righties all night. The changeup was working for him too.

Thing is, Adam Wainwright had it rolling too, and took full advantage of just about the most anemic Pirates offense I’ve seen, and I lived through the 80’s.

Colin Moran had two base hits off Adam and one of them he almost snagged. The approach all night stunk, and that might be kind. For as good as Wainwright was the Pirates handed him favors at every turn. First guy make an out on two pitches? Sure second guy, go ahead and take a cut on the first pitch. What’s that third guy? You’d like to swing two pitches in as well? Sure why not.

The talent level of these hitters isn’t going to confuse anyone with the NL All Star squad, well most of them anyway, but they’re largely better than this. I’m not going to spend the rest of the season harping on the hitting coach, but at some point you either have to say this is the worst collection of hitters ever assembled, or perhaps, just maybe it’s ok to finally question the coaching.

All year this team has struggled to collect hits, and late in the games they seem to start seeing the ball better. Why is that? Surely they’re studying film, and preparing. I’m sure they have analytics on trends, I mean it’s not just bloggers who have access to heat maps for every pitcher in the league at our fingertips.

Whatever is going on, the approach at the plate has been one thing this season, consistently bad.

Somewhere between most of this rant Cody Ponce came in and gave up 3 more runs after a really nice battle with Harrison Bader and potentially get out of a 2nd and 3rd with one out situation. Sadly he would deliver a meatball on 0-2 and surrender a two run double followed by Wainwright singling in the 4th. His second hit of the game by the way. First one was a double.

That was really it. Chasen Shreve and Anthony Banda each pitched an inning scoreless.

I can’t stress this enough, I’m in no way saying these hitters are great, but they aren’t this bad. This isn’t just bad players, it’s a combined effort. Time to try something different. This isn’t a change I feel they can afford to wait on for another season.

4-0

News & Notes

  • Gregory Polanco is now 1 for his last 22
  • Adam Wainwright’s two hitter was pulled together in only 88 pitches. He is the oldest to do it since Phil Niekro who was 42, Adam of course is 39
  • Pirates have lost 19 of 21 at PNC vs Cardinals
  • The Pirates have 3 hits in the last two games they’ve played

A Failed Prospect. An Underused Resource. What is Michael Chavis?

8-11-21 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

A first round pick by the Red Sox back in 2014, Michael Chavis has had a strange path to the Majors, one that he’s still traversing.

He’s held himself back at times like in 2018 when he was suspended 80 games for PED’s, but more than anything he’s held himself back by never really getting a handle on his strikeout rate.

The Pirates are a power hungry organization and Chavis has potential to provide it, cheap. So when Ben Cherington saw an opportunity to acquire the guy he once drafted for another player (Austin Davis) he gave up next to nothing to bring in, he jumped on it.

See, back in 2017, Michael was the Red Sox number 2 prospect after completing a split season between Single A and Double A in which he hit 31 homeruns. He was flying through the system and even with his suspension earned himself a call up to the rebuilding on the fly Boston club in 2019.

95 games, 382 plate appearances and 18 homeruns. Sounds good right? Well, it is, but with 127 strikeouts, I mean that’s about 33% of the time he’s striking out.

Let me lend a little more perspective here.

Mason Martin is arguably the Pirates most promising power bat in the system. Now, what you always hear about Mason is he needs to get his strikeout rate under control. Here’s his line this year in AA Altoona so far. 79 games, 334 plate appearances and 19 homeruns. Again sounds great right? Then we get to the strikeouts, 114 that’s about 34% of his appearances.

I should also say here, there’s a difference between doing that in AA and MLB, so please don’t misunderstand, I’m not making these equivalent. Just a comparison for comparison’s sake.

Michael had this much more under control for a time. Back in 2017 he was only striking out at a 21% clip which in today’s game is more than acceptable. Especially if it’s accompanied by 31 dingers, so he’s clearly worth a risk here, especially if the risk was a lefty who wasn’t doing much anyway. I mean don’t get too stoked, Gregory Polanco had a 21% K rate in his best season 2018 with 23 dingers, and he is the worst player in the history of the game right?

Now, ok, he’s worth the risk, but what can he do? Well, first base, DH, left field, second base, and I’d imagine if you played left field with the Green Monster you can handle right field with the Clemente Wall.

Look, there aren’t any guarantees in baseball. I can throw out all the stats you like but at the end of the day, you’re looking for skill sets and more importantly for them to evolve. So far Michael is a guy with one hell of a power tool, and not so much on the contact, at least so far.

The Pirates think he’s worth developing and since today is his birthday, happy birthday Michael, he’s all of 26 years old and doesn’t even hit arbitration 1 until next season, he probably is.

They’re out nothing if he fails and have everything to gain if he’s plopping balls in the Rotunda soon.

He could find his way to MLB this year, but if he does it will almost have to be at the expense of someone currently here. That could be Gregory Polanco, Anthony Alford, maybe even Rodolfo Castro. With only two call ups in September chances are the Bucs just promote a couple pitchers but if they go with a bat, Chavis would be my bet.

Taking risks on guys like this is a very affordable way to try to improve the short term without sacrificing the prospect capital they’ve worked so hard to build.

Bottom line, he’s an all or nothing player at the plate, and he’s an all or nothing player as an acquisition. Look for more like this before next season gets into business.

Oh, Michael, well a team like this, I’d play him in right field, bat him seventh and take the K’s in exchange for a chance at some instant offense, hey, it’s not like they’re really playing small ball either.

Facing The Challenges Of Promotion Head-On – Blake Sabol

8-11-2021 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

For the past month or so, and possibly longer, Pirates Fans have been clamoring for a number of players in Pittsburgh’s Farm System to be promoted up the ladder to the next level; bringing them noticeably closer at times to the day when they could find themselves walking out onto the field at PNC Park.

Some names that were regularly tossed around, but have since been squashed due to injury, included Oneil Cruz, Roansy Contreras and Carmen Mlodzinski; while others such as Mason Martin and Endy Rodriguez continue to gather steam. In a similar fashion, many were on the Matt Fraizer Promotion Train, until it finally took place-and deservedly so-on August 5th after he posted a slash line of .314/.401/.578 with 20 homers in 75 games at High-A Greensboro.

However, it would be foolish for one to assume that Frazier’s promotion from the Grasshoppers to the Curve was the first of its kind the season; which I know isn’t the case for many followers of the Pirates’ Organization . Nevertheless, as we know, even the most avid fan could miss what is often seen as a minor move between one of the four affiliates, or even the recently renamed Florida Complex League.

To give a few examples, Fabricio Macias received a promotion from Low-A Greensboro to AAA-Indianapolis on July 6th after batting .316 with 6 homers for the Grasshoppers, Hunter Stratton got the bump from AA-Altoona to Indy on June 23rd due to his 1.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 25.1 innings with the Curve and Blake Sabol earned his way up to Greensboro from Low-A Bradenton on July 6th as well after only 14 games and 46 at bats with the Marauders.

Of course there have been others, and all of them deserve our attention to some degree, but just for one moment I would like to focus on the last one of this bunch; mostly because of how Sabol has regularly forced his way into a loaded Grasshoppers lineup, after being somewhat of an unlikely call up, with a fairly unique Pittsburgh influenced backstory.

Originally drafted in 33rd Round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft by the Cleveland Indians as a catcher out of Aliso Niguel High School in California-where he was a three sport (baseball, basketball, and football) standout that hit. 338 with 11 homers and 43 stolen bases on 44 attempts-Sabol stayed true to his commitment to USC.

Sticking at catcher during his freshman season with the Trojans, he began to expand on his skill set-mostly due to his athleticism-as he started with a move to first base in the Cape Cod League and then to the outfield in his sophomore campaign in Southern California; ultimately earning an invitation back to the Cape, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with 7 homers in 37 games.

After seeing his draft stock rise, Sabol once again returned to USC, looking to build upon his success over the summer. Unfortunately, this did not exactly take place as he put up comparable numbers to that of his previous year with the Trojans; that were still very good, but not enough to keep rising up the boards through the beginning of that June’s MLB Amateur Draft, when he was eventually selected in the 7th Round (214th Overall) by the Pirates and signed for $250,000 ($43,500 over slot).

Subsequently, he began his professional career with the West Virginia Black Bears, Pittsburgh’s Short-Season A Ball Affiliate at the time, exactly a week later; ending the season as a NY-Penn League All-Star.

Following such a strong start to his professional career, I was really looking forward to seeing what the next would be for this young man. I imagined going on my yearly Florida Family Vacation and seeing him for the second year in a row; only this time as a Marauder. Then came the shutdown, and with it no Minor League Season. For Blake Sabol this meant no baseball of any sort for pretty much a year and a half considering he wasn’t even added to the Fall Instructional League when the time rolled around.

Finally, for Sabol, and many other Minor Leaguers who found themselves in the same boat for such a long period of time, the 2021 season got underway; with almost a month delay due to staggered Spring Trainings and a modified Alternative Site.

The only thing left to be decided at this point was if Sabol would be assigned to Low A, where he would more than likely have started 2020, or get the benefit of the doubt/age promotion to High A. Well, there was no benefit for Sabol as he was officially assigned to Bradenton a few weeks after the season began; and then unfortunately went on the IL after only three games, during which he accumulated 5 hits-including a homer in his first game.

Luckily he was only out until June 15th, and more importantly he didn’t really cool down; earning the aforementioned promotion to Greensboro by hitting .370 with a 1.052 OPS and as many strikeouts as walks (12). And since his arrival he hasn’t really slowed down. Forcing his way into contests at multiple positions, including catcher; all while batting .306 with six homers and 12 total extra base hits in his 85 at bats in Grasshoppers’ green and orange.

With 36 games remaining on both Greensboro and Altoona’s seasons, it is unlikely that a double jump is in the North Carolina air for Sabol. However, one of his main competitors for playing time in the outfield-Fraizer with an A-I- is now with the Curve, and because of position flexibility, I for one will continue to keep an eye on Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu’s second cousin for the remainder of the MiLB season.

…

Pirates One Hit By Cardinals For Sixth Straight Loss

8-11-2021 By Craig W. Toth (aka @bucsbasement on Twitter)

According to Baseball Reference, the average length of a Major League Baseball game is 3 hours and 10 minutes. All the way back in 1985, when I first started following the Pirates, it was 2 hours and 44 minutes. MLB’s Commissioner Rob Manfred sees this as a problem, and is invested in doing everything he can to speed up the pace of play/not make the games last as long; from the three batter minimum for relievers to the pitch clock and from shortening the challenge time for managers to 20 seconds instead of 30 and putting a runner on second in extras. Yet, games have continued to last over 3 hours, as the have since 2012; even in a game where the Pirates lineup did everything they could to minimize how long fans had to suffer through their latest loss, the game still lasted 2 hours and 51 minutes.

Now, some may see this as a sarcastic joke; however, I can guarantee you that this is 100% absolute frustration on my part. Sure, I don’t expect the Pirates to win that many games from here on out, but I sure as hell expect them to try to compete in each and every contest; not just lay down. And for anyone that points to Polanco’s heroics this past week in a come from behind victory or each Stallings walk off hit, I can show you twice as many, or more games that went the way of last night’s meeting at PNC Park with the division rival St. Louis Cardinals.

Of course you could point to the Pirates recent track record versus JA Happ, including the 7+ inning one hit performance when he was with the Twins back in April; still I can’t seem to justify, in my head, another one hit outing, where he struck five Pittsburgh hitters to go along with a game high 9 swings and misses. I just can’t.

News and Notes

  • Steven Brault only made a few mistakes in his 5 innings of work, but the Cardinals made him pay for two of them; both on solo home runs from Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong. Nevertheless, you can be too disappointed with Brault’ six strike out and zero walk performance.
  • The clock may have struck midnight on The Big Nogowski. The Dude has is batting .125 over his last 15 games. His last hit came back on August 3rd.
  • Ka’Tom started his rehab assignment in Indianapolis, which seems to have a lot of Pirates Fans up in arms. For what it’s worth he went 1 for 2 with a 2-run homer in the third. Also, for what it’s worth Erik Gonzalez was DFA’d whenever he was reinstated to the roster.
  • Duane Underwood, Jr. and Nick Mears combined for three scoreless innings to give Pirates Fans at least some semblance of hope that their team could make a comeback. Following a few disastrous outings in July, Underwood, Jr. has posted a somewhat solid, or at least consistent, 3.97 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Mears on the other hand had continued to be up and down, which is exactly what I would expect from a fast tracked 24 year old with limited Big League experience.
  • For the time being Jun Hoy Park is your leadoff man. Taking advantage of the opportunity, and playing all over the field, the recently acquired Park is slashing .321/.367/.571 in his short time with the Pirates; and he got his first Major League Home Run last night.

The Pirates look to get back on track, and in all actuality get their bats going, as they take on the Cardinals at 7:05 PM EST for the second game of this three game series.

For Pittsburgh, Wil Crowe (3-6, 5.47 ERA) toes the rubber against long time nemesis, Adam Wainwright (10-3, 3.48 ERA).

How Does the Pirates Coaching Look Heading Into 2022?

8-10-21 – By Gary Morgan – garymo2007 on Twitter

As I started writing the forecast for 2022 on Sunday, I realized this couldn’t be done without touching on the coaching staff. I mean the pitching and hitting was one thing, but there was just no way any of you were going to let me stop without talking to the coaching.

Now, this one isn’t going to be quite the same as those other write ups. These aren’t as simple as picking up expiring control levels or focusing on areas of need. Instead I need to talk about this more academically.

This isn’t a witch hunt, and it certainly isn’t going to be about calling names, it’s going to be an evaluation of performance vs expectation. Predicting how these will turn out is a fool’s errand, but I’ll still make suggestions, don’t confuse the two.

I’d also like to touch on something I’m nearly positive will be brought up, the players have to take the lion’s share of responsibility for performance, not the coaches. This is surely correct, and I’ll not be misplacing that message. That doesn’t mean I have to avoid criticizing the coaches however, because at the end of the day, making players better is part of the gig.

I’m not going to waste space on the Bench Coach or position coaches. I’m not even sure how to judge them. Hard to get on Cora, they’ve barely crossed third this year and I have no idea what Don Kelley really does beside the scheduling stuff that has been disclosed. Besides, Kelley will undoubtedly get calls for interviews this off season and I just as soon let that play out. If anything since the fielding has improved drastically this season I’d almost have to give Cora kudos.

The Pitching Coaches

Oscar Marin and Justin Meccage, these things are usually package deals. If you remove the head of a department, you typically don’t keep anyone, so I’ll not be trying to decipher which one contributed what to the proceedings, instead we’ll just try to talk to the overall body of work.

Now, there’s no real way to do this without talking about the players.

Who Got Better?
Clay Holmes, Sam Howard, Richard Rodriguez and maybe David Bednar. I say maybe on Bednar because if I’m honest, most of the successful pitchers this team has were brought in after someone else developed them. David is not exception. He has been really good this season and certainly better than his cup of coffee with San Diego, but being as he looked that way from his first pitch this Spring, I’m just not sure how much credit goes to this staff. Doesn’t mean that answer is none, but I have a hard time giving them all the credit too.

Who Should Have Improved?
I phrase this one like this because honestly, I can’t blame this coaching staff for failing to turn water into wine. Mitch Keller is the obvious choice here, his pedigree and stuff should have found a way to the surface, but it’s hard to say he’s done anything more than exist. Here’s one I’m not sure most of you will agree with, Luis Oviedo. Here’s a guy who was clearly not supposed to be in MLB, so I wasn’t expecting him to look unhittable, but he started better than he finished. They went from a guy with great stuff that needed to learn how to manage it, to a guy they literally felt the need to hide all season.

Ideally this would have counted as Oviedo’s AA year, learning on the job, being used sparingly, but progressing. That hasn’t happened, and because of it he’ll likely go to AA next year and giving him a 40-man spot is going to be a tough ask. In other words, they may end up having wasted a spot this entire season on a guy they aren’t likely to keep.

Of course we also have to factor in that the pitching plan for the entire organization is coming from Marin, and there has very much so been improvement throughout the system on the mound.

Can we take from this that the plan is good but the execution at least at the MLB level isn’t?

Mitigating Factors
Nobody can account for the COVID effect in full. What I’m trying to say here is how can I know that the way they’ve managed this pitching staff was an answer to missing 2020 for many players versus how they’d like to manage the pitchers?

I also can’t pretend they’ve had thoroughbreds to work with. When I come up with a list of two guys who should have improved and one of them is iffy, it becomes difficult to really pin blame entirely.

Prognosis
They likely stay put, but one thing they need to consider is the likelihood that Joel Hanrahan is going to get interest from other teams. He’s been used as a pitching whisperer to a degree in spring and at instructs so it’s plausible he is seen as a potential upgrade over Meccage the current Bullpen Coach, or they could even simply add him as a special assistant. If the club values his input, I’d think a promotion is in order, especially if they aren’t willing to make a bigger change.

If you read my pitching piece (linked earlier in this piece) you probably can see there won’t be an earth shattering improvement in the talent level on the mound, but there will be a ton of youth. Youth with some degree of pedigree, if there is no improvement there, I’m not sure how you continue with this group. If they’re able to prove they can unlock some talent perhaps that’s enough, either way 2022 is huge for these coaches, if they choose to give them another go.

The Hitting Coaches

Rick Eckstein and Christian Marrero. Eckstein has thrived in this organization and remains one of the very few holdovers from the Hurdle regime. Now, he thrived when he had Jacob Cruz as his assistant back in 2019. Cruz is currently the assistant hitting coach for the Milwaukee Brewers.

After Bob Nutting purged the management team almost entirely the players formed a group and stood up for their hitting coach. It worked, against what must have been long odds. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a new manager brought in who used to be a hitting coach himself and have him retain the existing coach.

Hard to argue the success he and Cruz had in 2019, this team looked like they had at least figured some things out on the offensive side of the ball, but the results fell off the face of the earth in 2020. Well, maybe with the exception of Ke’Bryan Hayes and many attribute his early success to work at the Altoona training site with Jon Nunnally the current Indianapolis Indians hitting coach.

Who Got Better?
Um, Bryan Reynolds? I mean he looks even better than he did in 2019 and more power has emerged than most imagined was in there. I’m certainly not gong to take credit away from the coaches for this but Reynolds is a special player. Part of me feels like saying coaching helped him improve would be like giving Mike Sullivan credit for Sidney Crosby improving at faceoffs.

Adam Frazier was certainly more consistent than we’ve ever seen him. Colin Moran was taking a much better approach shooting for opposite field but he sacrificed some power to do so. One more here, because Jacob Stallings has probably been the best example of overall improvement. He’s added power and a knack for contact in key situations.

Who Should Have Improved?
Well, Hayes we should have expected a bit of a drop off if I’m honest, but watching him struggle with the same thing since his return from the IL has been frustrating. Everyone and their mother loves to reference Kevin Newman‘s secondary stats in 2019, but after a roaring Spring in which he clearly adopted some changes to his batting stance and approach (attributed to Nunnally too by the way) he was allowed to play 4 full months drilling balls into the ground before finally making the adjustment just as July ramped up. He’s slowly improving but potentially cost himself a real shot at staking a more permanent claim on Short Stop.

Mitigating Factors
I mean, lack of talent really. How can I blame anyone for Ka’ai Tom, Dustin Fowler, Erik Gonzalez, Phillip Evans or Anthony Alford?

Prognosis
Obviously I can’t say what they’ll do, but I’d move on from Eckstein. First of all, it’s clear dating all the way back to 2020 that when a player is really struggling Derek Shelton takes on the project personally. He did so with Josh Bell in 2020, even interrupting a session with Eckstein to change what was being instructed. And after Hayes struggled after his return, Derek took him aside and personally instructed him as well, probably coincidence that he hit a homerun that night, right?

My main beef with Eckstein is the fact that players like Hayes and Newman were showing real signs of progress with Nunnally then upon regressing with the MLB club were left to die on the vine. To the point even average fans saw the difference. First, it’s completely understandable that two coaches would have different opinions or methods, but it shouldn’t take nearly as long to recognize. Of course Newman takes responsibility for his own failures, but after watching him drive the ball all Spring and clearly change his stance almost as soon as the season began I struggle to understand why this wasn’t altered back to what brought him success before mid July.

Want an off the wall example, how about Anthony Alford who raked all Spring with Nunnally, failed early on with Eckstein, went back to AAA and found his way with Nunnally again. Now he’s back, does Eckstein keep him rolling or does he regress again? One thing Alford has shown us, if he regresses, it won’t just be a little.

Eckstein’s approach at the plate is to shrink the strike zone. In other words, identify a smaller segment of the zone and make that the strike zone.

When you’re watching a player take a strike right over the plate and barely flinch, you’re first thought is what in the actual hell is he doing, right? Well, what he’s doing is listening to his coach. He’s picked a quadrant and when the pitch wasn’t there he let it go.

I’m not guessing at this. This is the stated approach, and numerous players have mentioned it as the reason they kept the bat on their shoulder. The team itself has even acknowledged it will lead to more strikeouts at times but the method is also supposed to lead to more hard contact.

It’s fair to say it works for some players better than others, but is it working for enough?

This is way too early, but if I’m the Pirates I either show ultimate trust in Shelton and let him choose a new coach, or I promote Nunnally. If I were to look outside, perhaps a good move would be to consider a bridge for loyalists to Eckstein and try to woo Jacob Cruz back to Pittsburgh.

Something has to change here in my mind.

The Manager

Derek Shelton will be entering his third year as the Pirates Manager. Yup, I’m that confident.

I think we can pick his performance apart and I’m certainly going to do that here, but I also can’t imagine the team is ready to move on. They simply haven’t given him much to work with and on top of that many of his optically disgusting moves are more organizational than his personal philosophies.

This in no way should be taken as a statement that I believe in Shelton, or that I think he’ll be the guy to lead this team back to the promised land, but I’m quite certain he’ll get another crack at it at least.

What Got Better?
Well, the defense. It was a stated goal, and they absolutely nailed it. A few hiccups in the outfield but those were more personnel driven than poor usage. Honestly, that’s about all I can find.

What Should Have Improved?
The pitching staff as a whole was in my mind misused and mismanaged from the jump this season. Now, I’ve already mentioned that none of us can truly know the extent to which COVID created this mess of a plan, but I can say with confidence this was an organizational approach.

I understand the caution, but what they’ve done here prevented anyone from really establishing themselves. Pulling starters with low pitch counts in the fifth by way of preserving arms that in all reality hadn’t shown enough to warrant concern did nothing but beat to death a bullpen that could hardly afford it in the first place.

Again, this wasn’t Shelton alone, but at some point if you’re being asked to do things that don’t work, don’t you at some point have to stand up and push back? Maybe he did and was told to sit down and do as he was asked, regardless as an overall philosophy I hated just about everything about how the pitching was handled.

Organizationally I don’t really care for it either. 6 man rotations and tightly held pitch counts well below league standard smells a whole lot like trying to be the smartest guys in the room, and I watched plenty of that with the last group.

Another thing that has been odd is the refusal up until recently to use young players called up. Jared Oliva was scarcely used, Geoff Hartleib was called up 3 times and used once. Nick Mears was called up multiple times and out of necessity is finally getting time. Even Rodolfo Castro sat on the bench until he took it upon himself to go on a power binge.

I’m pleased to see he’s starting to evolve, but fearful he needed his options removed before doing so. He shouldn’t need told that in a season like this gaining experience is important.

Prognosis
Shelton stays, and it’s really not even a question. Next year, I hope to see better options in the bullpen for him to call from but I can’t sit here and tell you it looks like it’s on the horizon.

I will say this though, Derek Shelton waited too long to step in when watching Hayes struggle. Never did anything about Kevin Newman and continually refused to use pitching reinforcements that were called up for him to use.

He’s a young coach, and he’s allowed to get better to, thing is we need to start seeing signs of that come next year or this team is going to join the chorus line of rebuilding teams that replaced their starter coach with a seasoned manager when it came time to compete.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – The Winter Meetings

8-10-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd

Justin Verno – For those of you that devour baseball trades and rumors like Joe and myself, there are two events worth setting up on your calendar. The first one expired a week ago–the July Trade Deadline. The second is still months away in the cold month of December: the Winter Meetings. COVID didn’t just affect how much toilet paper we bought last year, it also changed the July trade deadline and the Annual MLB Winter Meetings. 

There were no “live reports” or sit-down interviews with GMs or players’ agents. There were no live shots of a GM on their phone and the trade speculation that would normally follow. To put it simply, last year’s Winter Meetings were lame sauce, which really wasn’t all that shocking considering how much of a dud the 2020 July deadline was. (For comparison, the previous deadline was August 31st.)

The good news? The 2021 Trade Deadline seemed to make up for 2020’s Trade Deadline!  Here’s to hoping the same will be said of the 2021-22 Winter Meetings. 

Pirates’ GM and his front will have a lot of decisions to make and this includes no shortage of 40 man roster decisions, looking at the Rule 5 candidates (both his and other teams), and lastly, who is left on the 25 man roster that he could potentially get value back for via trades. Joe and I will examine some of the names Cherington could move, if it makes sense, and what has to happen for it to make sense. And here’s the fun part: some of the trade pieces he got back could determine how much of the 25 man roster he is willing or able to move in those December Meetings. 

Joe Boyd – Justin brought up the 40-man roster crunch and I think will have to be a consideration for Cherington. Fangraphs did a 40-man crunch article a few days ago that actually makes things feel relatively reasonable, but this is an issue that will have to be considered for the club moving forward. The article notes that the Pirates have 42 players on the 40-man right now (including 60-day IL players) and two free agents (Cahill & Shreve) to go along with Polanco’s club option. That puts the team at 39 spots and they’ll most certainly have to add the likes of Liover Peguero, Mason Martin, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty, Cal Mitchell and Tahnaj Thomas. But let’s look at Rule 5 later. First we need to make some room on the 40-man roster with our favorite, some trades.

JV – Let’s get started.

Kevin Newman – I know, “nobody would give up anything for Kevin Newman,” but his name reportedly came up at the deadline and man, I really would love to know if there were any substantial talks or if it came up in passing.  Moving Kevin makes a ton of sense with the haul Cherington got at the deadline adding three middle infielders: Hoy Park, Diego Castillo, and BC prospect crush Tucupita Marcano. With Rodolfo Castro, Philip Evans and Wilmer Difo still around, moving Newman could be high on the list. Even Colin Moran can play second in a pinch. The play of Castillo, Hoy and Marcano could be a key here. So keep your eye on how those guys perform down the stretch (we can add Difo’s name to that list). Newman needs to turn his season around here (a good 180% would be helpful in any possible return) but either way, I could see Cherington taking a shot at trading his “change of scene” candidate for another team’s “change of scene” candidate. Keep in mind Newman can play 2B, SS and 3B and with his speed, I can see adding an OF in the future. 

JB – Newman should absolutely be a candidate to move.  I’ve done a frankenstein version of my projections to look ahead to the offseason and Newman looks like a solid value candidate if you take the ZiPS projections.  He averages out to just under a 0.5 WAR/season player over the next 3 years of control and that puts him at just over $9.23M surplus.  Now, those that are paying attention may scoff at that number with Newman’s wRC+ sitting at 48 this year and 54 last year.  My guess is that his projections will come down quite a bit, so let’s maybe cut this in half to curb some expectations.  Newman is still a versatile former Round 1 selection, so perhaps he could have a taker or two.

For me, I think another player that could move at the Winter Meetings fits the exact same description as Newman and that’s Cole Tucker.  He’s another light-hitting former #1 pick that has some positional versatility and an extra year of control more than Newman.  He’s absolutely a change-of-scenery candidate.  Based on ZiPS, he’s a 0.3 WAR/season player and his value is just around $6M, but we need to look at him less as a chip to add value to the system and more at looking to add a lottery ticket or two that are not eligible for the draft.

JV – Neither of those names, Newman and Tucker, will net much but this is more for roster reconstruction than it is improving the system. 

But a guy that would bring a solid return is Jacob Stallings. And I know, I am bringing down the heat here. I think there’s as much a chance they move Stallings at the Meetings as there was at the Trade Deadline, maybe a hair more. But, there were rumors that Kim Ng made a play for him and that she will try again at the meetings. I don’t know how reliable that rumor was, but MLBTradeRumors stated that the local writers in Miami seem to think Stallings will be a candidate for Kim Ng to go get. So there is a little smoke here, but Cherington will have to weigh that against his value as a teacher to the pitching staff. BC will also have a keen eye on one of his trade acquisitions from the deadline and how he is developing, Carter Bins. If Carter gets a call to AAA before the season is over, moving Stallings could make sense. Hudson or Susac are capable place holders for a few weeks until Bins gets the call to PNC Park. But if he struggles a bit and stays in AA, I can’t see the sense in moving him. 

The Trade Deadline kids are making a huge impact on the Winter Meetings plans here, Joe. Both for who the Pirates could move and the 40 man being that a good deal of them are close to being in the majors. 

JB – Stallings could certainly be a piece that is moved.  I do think that they would like to keep his leadership and continuity, but I also would not bat an eye if Cherington gets a price that he wants.  Stallings is obviously not a “have to move” player, but rather a “if the team exceeds the asking price” player.  

Now I wanted to touch on two players that I think could absolutely move in December, Steven Brault and Colin Moran.  

Let’s start with Brault.  He’s obviously just now coming back for 2021 and we’ll hope that he’s a stabilizing force in the rotation.  But he’s a lefty with a decent track record and some control.  ZiPS has him as a 0.7WAR/season player over the next two seasons and that comes with a value around $6.17M.  

Moran is the final piece of the Cole trade remaining, and he provides pop from the left side of the plate and some positional “versatility.”  He can play 2B and 3B, but honestly, clubs that are looking for a 1B are the main market (Boston, potentially?).  Moran’s ZiPS are extremely similar to Brault’s except he gets a bit of a bump in 2023 for some reason, so 0.7 WAR in 2022 and 0.8 in 2023.  That puts Moran’s value at $6.96M.  

At those values, both Brault and Moran are looking at potential returns of a 45-FV prospect, but realistically, you could look at rising 40+ prospects for these players.  Fangraphs accounts for positional value in WAR, but I would still expect a slightly better return for Brault.

JV – Yeah, I think both of those names are names we could hear at the Meetings. Names to watch for this to happen? How about Mason Martin getting the call to AAA. Could it matter in how they view moving Moran?  

Listening on Brault is something I can see them doing here. They don’t need to move him due to that control, but LH starters always have a market. How he performs is very important here, so let’s watch for that, but how quickly they get Maguel Yajure and Roansy Contreras could play heavily in their approach with Steven.

Another interesting situation to look at here is Ben Gamel. Under control for one more year and playing some good baseball, this is another case of possible roster reconstruction with 40 man roster concerns. Reynolds is obviously not going anywhere (or is he?) and though he is the only given for the opening day roster, the Bucs have plenty of reinforcements on the way. Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Ngijba, Jack Suwinski, and even Travis Swaggerty could be in play for a promotion early next year. With Jarred Oliva, Gregory Polanco (Yes, Polanco), Bligh Madras, Hoy Park and more as examples of guys likely ready to play opening day in Pittsburgh, it’s entirely possible Gamel could find himself on the move in the offseason. Joe, it’s interesting to me that 2 of the OFs I mentioned above were trade acquisitions for Cherington. He’s done a good job at adding talent that is in fact close to the majors, bears mentioning, again!

I have one more player I think we should continue to monitor, Chad Kuhl. I somehow feel unfulfilled watching Kuhl. I feel there’s more in the tank there, Joe. But if he throws well down the stretch, Ben Cherington could do well listening on him. So far, we’ve talked about guys that could be moved for roster construction purposes and others that would need a significant return. I think Kuhl falls into the latter. I get he’s technically a rental, and certainly he wouldn’t require a 50 FV prospect, but by no means does Cherington have to move him. If he doesn’t love what he hears, he can keep him and reevaluate later.

And all the same parameters that applied for Brault carry over for Chad. How Kuhl pitches matters. I don’t want to sell low here, but it isn’t the only thing to consider. How Brubaker, Keller, Crowe and Bryse Wilson pitch absolutely matters. Same with Yajure and Contrereas. Ben can’t simply trade a starter with no plan to replace him with a viable option?

Parting Thoughts –

JB – My parting thought here is I feel we are entering into the next phase of the rebuild.  This is good news in some ways, and not so great news in others.  For folks like Justin and me, you’ve probably seen the last of the major pieces getting moved.  Sure, Stallings could move and that would be a big shift, but the big returns are mostly done.  I’m not ruling out ALL trades, obviously.  I anticipate some roster shifting for the Rule 5 draft, maybe some ‘change of scenery’ moves, and maybe some prospect-for-prospect deals.  But I highly doubt we’ll see any foundational pieces move any time soon. All of the players we’ve touched on above, specifically Stallings, Moran, and Brault have to have a cost-benefit analysis done on trading them.  Does the benefit of new prospects outweigh the cost of losing those leaders (with very little value outside the organization) make sense for the benefit of the club?  

So what’s the good news?  I feel that we’re transitioning to the “play the kids” stage.  Cherington made some moves at the deadline for players that are closer to the majors than we anticipated.  Does that mean he thinks they are closer to competing? Does it mean that he is satisfied with the youth wave in Bradenton/Greensboro and he wants some stability/depth for when they are ready to debut?  I, for one, do not know.  What I do know is that this is the slog portion of the rebuild.  Trades are splashy, fun and get the discussion going.  Now we are playing those fringy youngsters to see which ones are worth a spot when the real reinforcements show up.  Are we going to watch Wil Crowe and Mitch Keller and Max Kranick take their lumps over the next two years? Yep.  Are we going to roll out Kevin Newman to see if that noodle bat starts to make some contact?  Unfortunately, it’s pretty likely.  But on the other end of that spectrum, let’s see if Hoy Park can keep the hard contact going or if Rodolfo Castro can stick as that versatile piece on the roster.  I do not think 2022 will be much better than 2020 or 2021, but we are getting close to turning that corner.  Cherington has made the moves to rebuild the farm, he will continue to add talent, maybe he will look to extend certain stars, and with any luck we will start to reap what we have sown by 2023.  

JV – Spot on, Joe. Sure, Stallings or perhaps a JT Brubaker could be guys we see get moved. And who knows? Maybe at some point our jaws are hitting the floor because a team decided they had to have Bryan Reynolds and were willing to force Cherington’s hand. But I think we’ve shown the Bucs are better off extending that man. (Hey Nutting, pay that man!)

And I have to say, as much as I love trades, and everybody who knows me knows I do love me some baseball trades, but nothing (and I mean nothing) beats the next phase. The “call the kid up!” phase. The “play the kids!” phase. And lastly, the “don’t be a prospect hugging team, go add a big name!” phase. In the not so distant future, Joe, you and I will be tackling this same exact issue, but hopefully we will be looking at it from the other side of the fence. I can’t wait for that!

My last thought here, I hope Joe and I gave some fans a reason to tune in down the stretch; a reason to get on line and talk some Bucco baseball!  We’d love to hear from you!

Joe?  I think we should take some time here, breathe, and collect our thoughts and in a few months, maybe early November, take a closer look at some of these names and break down the surplus and build some possible packages? What d’ya say?

JB – That’ll work for me.  Excellent work on this, Justin.  It’s been a blast doing these pieces.  Let’s do some brainstorming and reconvene in the near future.  Cheers!

Gary – I’d like to thank Joe and Justin for excellent work covering the trade scene this season and I’m grateful they plan to continue to offer their services as we move forward. This has been such a successful series and it’s a testament to the fair and agenda free way in which they approached a subject that is often painful for fans to think about. I’ve linked to Joe and Justin’s Twitter handles in the byline, please reach out to them when you have a thought on a potential trade, an idea you’d like them to talk about or if you just want to make sure they know you liked what they’ve done.

Hell of a season boys!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

8-9-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates had a brutal 4 game series against the Reds over the weekend, and blame is evenly split between the pitching and hitting. When you lose by 11 runs it’s hard to blame the offense, at the same time if you get shutout it’s hard to care you gave up 11 runs you know?

Thank goodness this isn’t called Five Positive Pirates Thoughts at Five.

1. This Bullpen is Beyond Bad

Oh the rotation isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either, but the pen is almost more about finding ways to avoid using many members than it is about getting the job done. One thing I’ve been thinking about is when Chad Kuhl comes back off the COVID IL perhaps Crowe or Brubaker should head to the pen. I know many of you want to see Kuhl there but they won’t want to diminish his value as they head into this off season and he’s been one of the more effective starters. Brubaker is having his pitch count and innings artificially reduced to keep him alive. Maybe using him out of the bullpen would be a more effective path to use his services the rest of the way.

He’d still get his work in and we wouldn’t be looking at needing to cover 5 innings with the brutal bullpen.

It hasn’t helped that guys they relied on most of the year have turned into pumpkins. Stratton, Shreve and Underwood Jr. aren’t missing any bats.

There isn’t much that destroys team morale more than being in position to win through 5 or 6 innings only to wind up losing by 7. Worse, I don’t see any solutions, so maybe something creative like this with JT could help.

I just wrote about how the pitching staff is shaping up as we approach Spring, but man they really have to find some answers. If not, this is a preview of just how bad it could be. And before you scoff that it couldn’t get worse, remember the bullpen at the beginning of this season was a strength.

2. Bryse Wilson, More Than a Pleasant Surprise

Something struck me as I watched Bryse Wilson pitch these two starts for the Pirates since being dealt from Atlanta.

Here was a guy who wasn’t deemed good enough to make the rotation for the Braves, yet here he is, younger than anyone else the Pirates put on the mound not named Luis Oviedo looking more poised and polished. Now, we shouldn’t discount how many years he’s been up and down there, it’s not like this is a rookie, but he’s only had 17 MLB starts, making his first way back in 2018. For comparison Mitch Keller has 30 since 2019.

If you want to buy into the development system being better than it was, at some point guys the Pirates develop need to start looking a whole lot more like Wilson than Keller.

Hey, it’s 2 games, but if you watched him pitch, it’s also really hard to argue he doesn’t look more ready for action than anyone the Pirates have put forward.

3. The Book on Ke’Bryan

Oh it’s written. Pitch this man away, and down if you can. Mistake pitches are still going to happen, and he’s a good hitter, he’ll make them pay for that when he’s on.

Take a look at these images. First, this is the percentage of pitches he’s facing.

And here is his batting average per zone.

See anything that scares you?

Adjustments will come, and he’s talented enough to make them. Despite what you see here, he’s getting hits on balls inside, he’s just not turning on the ball with authority. The away pitches are all being beaten into the ground or fouled off.

This isn’t to bash the kid, or tell you he isn’t going to figure it out, it’s instead to make sure you understand why he’s struggling, and ultimately why sample size in this league is everything.

It took all of 4 weeks for this entire league to be wary of Hayes abilities, and less than that to decipher a way to attack him.

Believe it or not the Pirates employ someone who’s supposed to help with that, I’m hoping that’s a different someone next season.

4. What Will Be Doesn’t Trump What Is

I keep seeing fans jump right to saying players like Marcano, Park, Castro don’t matter because Peguero and Gonzalez will be the starting middle infield.

That could certainly still be true, but there are a good two seasons of baseball before this becomes reality.

The point here isn’t those two names, the point is, stop dismissing everyone in between. They will find answers on the way there and you’ll find that you aren’t all that excited to see someone else go for that guy you’ve been waiting on for 3 years.

When this thing really gets rolling, you’ll start to find less emphasis on guys who are 3 or 4 seasons away and more on AAA and MLB. That’s how a properly organized system looks and acts, its just been so long since you’ve seen it you can’t remember.

In other words, there are very good players coming along before we start digging into Cherington’s draftees and lower level acquisitions. He’d be the first to tell you he doesn’t plan to suck until they all get here.

And for the probably thousandth time, please stop reading ETAs for players on MLB websites. They’re just silly.

I can tell you right now Henry Davis won’t be here in 2023. He’s good, this is just an absolute joke of a timeline. Remember when Nick Gonzales was going to be here in 2023 and I told you to chill? Well there he is in High A Greensboro. He’s playing well, but sustained an injury and brace yourself, struggled for a while in his first season as a pro.

Think it’s safer with players closer to the league? Well sometimes, but then you have a guy like Travis Swaggerty who also got hurt. But yes, MLB can predict where a 20 year old is headed and by when. Keep telling yourself they’re accurate.

Maybe by the third year of me writing this you’ll realize I’m not just trying to keep kids held back. I’m trying to prevent you for setting yourselves up for disappointment. Disappointment that is honestly misplaced.

5. MVP?

Well, probably not, a team 30+ games under .500 isn’t going to allow for Bryan Reynolds to get the votes he deserves. Fair or unfair the MVP almost always goes to someone at least on a winning team.

He should get ample opportunity to secure the Gold Glove though. Jacob Stallings should as well.

See Bryan Reynolds has a real shot at finishing the season with the highest WAR in the league and he leads centerfielders in defensive runs saved.

Jacob Stallings leads all fielders period in defensive runs saved.

A major focus this season has been on improving defensively and largely, they’ve managed to achieve it, even while losing some players that helped in that effort.

Hey, I figured I’d end on a bright note.

Victim Of Circumstance-Jared Jones

The 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, and subsequent signing period, was an absolute whirlwind for General Manager Ben Cherington and Co., the Pittsburgh Pirates and in turn the fans of this historic franchise. After drafting five players that were listed among the top 100 of the class (Henry, Davis, Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White, Jr., Bubba Chandler and Braylon Bishop), and another that made his way near the top 200 (Owen Kellington), the Pirates were able to sign all but two of their selections (12th Round-LHP Chazz Martinez from Orange Coast College and 16th Round-SS and Wake Forest Commit Daniel Corona, Jr. from The Baylor Schools).

This feat was immediately met with fanfare and accolades by most experts and amateurs from across the entire baseball community. While, I believe much of this praise was well deserved, my mind began automatically began to drift back a little over a year into the past, to Cherington’s first draft in his time with Pittsburgh, and what he was able to accomplish in those first three rounds.

Now, it’s possible that much of what he did during that time was somewhat overlooked because of the fact that we were in the beginning stages of a global pandemic; severely limiting the number of innings that the draftees could have participated in leading up to the draft and punctuating the fact that they could not be officially placed anywhere other than to open spots at the alternate site prior to the Fall Instructional League.

Obviously it’s not like there wasn’t any draft coverage, however, it has to be acknowledged that it was not nearly as in-depth as it was this year; even though the majority of the players drafted by the Pirates ended up being assigned to Pirate City, and the newly dubbed Florida Complex League without the presence of the Bristol Pirates of the Advanced Rookie Level Appalachian League and the West Virginia Black Bears of the Short Season A New York-Penn League.

During the first three rounds Cherington selected and signed four of the top 70 draft prospects according to MLB Pipeline, including 55th ranked two-way high school phenom Jared Jones from La Mirada High School in California who commanded a over slot $2.2 million signing bonus.

In his high school career the young right hander posted a career .89 ERA and struck out 255 batters in 181 innings pitched thanks to his 60 grade fastball, which consistently reaches around 97 mph, his 55 grade slider that drops of the map between 80-82 mph and an solid 85-88 mph change up. On the offensive side he batted .394 with 7 home runs and a 1.040 OPS.

Straightaway, it should be noted that Jones may not have been a full on victim of circumstance per se, as that could be seen as a tad bit over dramatic or over stated, but possibly more of a causality due to the lack of attention. People knew who he was. He was listed on the Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects (#25 on Fangraphs and #16 on MLB Pipeline) immediately after being drafted. Nevertheless, this kid has been able to move beyond his status of a potentially overlooked prospect very quickly; garnering recognition from local and national media alike over the past few weeks.

At the start of the season, after being assigned to the Low A Bradenton Marauders to begin his professional career at the age of 19, Jones made his first two appearances out of the bullpen, and was pretty darn impressive. In his first 4 innings he struck out 9, didn’t allow a single earned run and walked only one batter; earning himself a spot in the starting rotation for almost every single outing since then.

As a starter, Jones has posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP while striking out 57 in 38.2 innings; including 7 in his last appearance just yesterday.

However, in this year of development, you would have to imagine that command/control (35 Future Value on Fangraphs and 40 on MLB Pipeline) would have to be a focus for him and Pitching Coach Fernando Nieve as it has always been listed as his biggest concern.

So, how has he done thus far, and what does this mean for his immediate future? Well, if you look at his overall base on ball rate of 3.72 I would have to say that things have gone possibly better than expected for the young man, who just turned 20 on August 6th; although it has not been without growing pains associated with bringing your pitches back into the zone. Over his last 15 innings of work, Jones has surrendered 3 homers in his last 20 innings of work.

Concerning his immediate future, the level of competition at Bradenton for promotion is extremely crowded at the moment with his fellow 2020 MLB Draftees Logan Hofmann and Nick Garcia, along with Adrian Florencio and Luis Ortiz doing well for themselves; plus you have to take into account the staff at Greensboro and Altoona, too, and whether or not they will be promoted to make more room.

Which would make me think, that considering all of these factors and taking Jones’ age into account, a year of seasoning at the Low A level could be expected. However, I wouldn’t rule anything out when it comes to potential pitcher injuries in the levels above him, or a Ben Cherington fast track, even though using the ETAs of 2024 or 2025 as a guideline-not gospel as some do-would put him at one level a year, with a possible MLB call up at some point during his 22 year old season.

How Does The Pirates Pitching Staff Evolve for 2022

On Sunday I put together some thoughts about what we can expect to see come Spring Training for the fielders. This wasn’t a prediction piece as much as a look at the landscape as it sits, along with identifying areas where the Pirates should be looking outside to fill. Give that a read if you’re interested.

This one is going to do the same for the pitching staff.

Admittedly, this is a tougher set of areas to look at. If you have followed my work at all you’ve seen me constantly say for forecasting the window follow the pitching. Well, Sunday’s piece and this one combined I think will show why I feel that way, the hitting is in my mind ahead of the pitching, and rather significantly.

The other thing with pitching that we often forget, especially those of us who can’t be bothered to look past WAR numbers, is that young pitchers get better.

The Rotation

I’m going to list some names that should probably be a factor as we ramp up in the Spring, but it also doesn’t take deep study to see they’re going to have to go shopping.

Let’s start with two guys I think are at least have a solid chance to be dealt. Chad Kuhl is entering his last year of arbitration, Steven Brault will have 2 more. Now, Chad has spent a ton of time on the IL in his career, he has really good stuff, and he’s struggled to harness it. They can simply offer him arbitration and send him into his last year in Pittsburgh or they could potentially buy themselves time and offer him a couple years.

I could argue that both ways. First, what’s to say he doesn’t just get hurt again, or that he ever reaches his potential? On the other hand, as we dive in here we’ll see he is probably not going to block anyone either.

Brault is another animal. He has reached his potential, possibly even exceeded it a bit. They have control of him for 2 more years and reality is he’ll either be moved or extended within the next year. He’s a good guy to consider extending, and for a while, here’s why, because he can easily hold his value in the bullpen when he is eventually overtaken by other pitchers in the rotation.

Regardless, here are your two internal veterans. Moving either of them will only increase the number of pitchers you have to turn around and bring in. If I’m the Pirates, I weigh the potential value returned with the value of actually having them here. I’d recommend both stay put and head into Spring prepared to be members of the staff.

JT Brubaker is 27 years old. That’s not exactly young for a rookie, but it also doesn’t tell his entire story. He was arguably ahead of Mitch Keller before suffering a series of injuries and made an unexpected impact in 2020 and early 2021. He’s currently being babied and the reason is how little he’s thrown 75 total innings in 2019-20 and as we sit here in early August of 2021 he’s at 107.1. The most he’s ever thrown in his professional career was 2018 154 total. He’s shown signs of wearing down and they’re trying to mitigate it. I still think JT is a lock to be in the rotation next year. He’s still on pre-arbitration and next year he’ll bring with him the lessons he learned in 2021.

You’ll note I’m not calling anyone ‘ace’ or numbering them as a ‘3’, I don’t like doing that for so many reasons. Also, I don’t see this club changing the way they handle pitchers all that much. In other words, I’m not going to bother numbering guys 1-5 when I think they’ll use 10-11.

Some of you aren’t going to want to hear this, but Mitch Keller is going to get every opportunity to grab a spot again. He has to, and we should stress, that doesn’t mean he’ll earn it. Unless this club brings in 3 or 4 guys in free agency Keller is likely to come out of Spring as a starter.

Here is my last lock, Bryse Wilson. He’s started well in his Pirates career and as young as he is, the Braves have given him all the yo yo treatment he’s going to get. They brought him here to be a starter, and he’ll be given every opportunity.

OK, those are the locks barring moves. I’m assuming a 5 man rotation, but 6 wouldn’t shock me.

So let’s talk about who else is in contention to get starts.

Wil Crowe, and I could have easily added him to the picture under locks. He’s done some very good things, he’s done some very bad things. He was acquired as a guy who had a shot to start but an ability to jump into the bullpen too. If this squad stays healthy, that may very well be where he ends up.

Miguel Yajure got a cup of coffee this season and injury prevented him getting a longer look. In fact Miguel being injured caused the quick jump up of Max Kranick. Yajure has the most evolved breaking stuff in the entire organization and he’ll probably force the Pirates to make a tough call. Think of him as a guy who might outperform everyone in Spring and make most of the fanbase scream when he’s asked to start in AAA again. I should stress, this is still assuming no moves are made to clear space.

Chase De Jong will probably get another look but he also has no options. I can’t look at that list I just wrote up and find room for him in the rotation, but this is about who will have an opportunity, not a list of locks.

Cody Ponce is another guy that will get a look, but cold just as easily wind up in the pen.

Three more flyers because I see no way they make it out of Spring but they’ll be in the next wave we look to, which is more than we could really say this season existed.

Roansy Contreras, Omar Cruz and the injured Cody Bolton will all get a look and I believe make up 3 of the 6 starting spots in AAA. Bolton has been forgotten as he’s missed most of the season to injury, but he remains the Pirates number 10 prospect even as they’ve continually brought in guys to shuffle that list.

The highest pedigree talent on the mound rests in Greensboro and Bradenton, those players will start to shift that to Greensboro and Altoona. Next season expect players like Contreras, Cruz, Bolton and potentially Yajure, Crowe, or even Keller to wind up in AAA. Which will look a lot better than Dillon Peters, Max Kranick, Shelby Miller, Steven Wright, James Marvel and Tanner Anderson.

That’s tangible evolution. And next year when they need a starter, it’s going to be someone who has a real chance to be here when the team wins.

All that being said, I think they go get a veteran or two. If they trade Brault or Kuhl, this statement better be a lock. In fact, the reality that the rotation get’s way too young way too fast by moving both those guys might very well be the reason they keep both.

The Bullpen

Let’s start here, just about anyone I mentioned in the starter section could wind up in the bullpen. So pardon me if I don’t repeat them all. Just keep that in the back of your head because it’s a very real probability that pitchers from that mix form at least the bottom half of this mix.

David Bednar will be the closer, I just don’t see any way around it and honestly, I don’t really want to.

Sam Howard will make the list and enter as the top lefty available out there.

Nick Mears will get a good long look the rest of this season, and I know for a fact they like his stuff. Chris Stratton will likely return but he could also find himself on the block. What he does could be done by someone like Ponce so it might not be a bad idea to move on from him if a nice package was offered.

Duane Underwood Jr. will be back. Know how I know? Because they haven’t cut him. He’s had good stretches, and god awful stretches. He too could find his spot eaten up by starters that don’t make the rotation. Again, this is about who’s in the mix, not who’ll make it.

Kyle Keller will probably return. They love his fastball, we can’t stand that he keeps getting leverage situations.

Hunter Stratton, Joe Jacques, Blake Weiman and Shea Spitzbarth should all get a look and then I have a couple more I’d look for. Yerry De Los Santos, Steven Jennings and Travis MacGregor.

The moral of the story with the pen, it’s going to be largely constructed from overflow starters and youngsters. I see zero chance they head into Spring without bringing in at least 2 or 3 more established options. Especially the way this team has managed the pitching staff, if they don’t beef up the bullpen, all those options to start won’t matter a lick.

At some point, maybe toward the end of the season we might see Blake Cederlind working his way back from TJ, but I wouldn’t count on him for anything more than finishing his recovery in 2022.

I’d tell you I don’t like the picture I’ve painted for this bullpen if you asked me, but I’d also remind you to look at the starters I listed, because I truly think there is more talent there than we think. I’d also tell you moving a starting prospect through the system and feeling they’re ready for the bullpen is a much lower hurdle than believing they can work through a lineup 2 or 3 times.

So here’s my early pitching staff. WAY EARLY, don’t beat me up too bad, and remember I want them to bring in more options.

SP: Brault, Kuhl, Wilson, Brubaker, Keller/Yajure
BP: Crowe, Ponce, De Jong, Underwood Jr. Bednar, Stratton, Howard, Mears, Spitzbarth

Is this better than 2021? Eh, maybe by the end of 2022 we’ll feel that way. Especially if Roansy, Bolton and Yajure develop. And yes, I really do think Mitch Keller ultimately decides whether he or Yajure make the opening day roster.

Pirates Recent Roster Moves Cast Light on 2022 Picture

Rodolfo Castro was called up out of necessity and 40-man implications directly from AA Altoona. He was always going to be the easiest and most logical to be sent back down. Maybe not to AA again, but down regardless.

Instead he went on a historic homerun streak to make at least some fans consider him ready. In the time since he’s fallen off a bit but still continues to make good contact and collect, well, you know, normal hits. We’ve seen him show a bit of inexperience around second base too.

Much like the homeruns, he has a knack for displaying the “homerun” on defense too. Showing off a cannon of an arm and an ability to gobble up balls that illustrate a range few mentioned as being in his tool kit.

The point is, this kid has something. I know, that’s not going to satisfy analytics junkies, and I guess I’m not really trying to. The Pirates have now made a series of choices that show they see it too. The latest being the DFA of Erik Gonzalez. See the easy call would have been to send Castro back down and bring Derek Shelton’s trusted veteran utility guy back. Instead, they decided they had heard and seen enough to made a decision on whether they would be offering Erik Gonzalez a tender sheet.

At the same time, the club decided they’d seen enough of Anthony Alford tearing it up in AAA. While needing an outfielder with the absence of Ben Gamel to the IL, it made sense to get potentially one last look at Alford in the bigs. Hey, it’s one game, I’m not getting ahead of myself.

As we sit here all of this is nothing more than learning for us fans. We’re starting to see that there comes a point where the team will in fact move on. I have little doubt Ka’ai Tom will follow. Dustin Fowler was also cut loose. Making room for promotions, and clearing the field up a bit is an important effort the rest of this season.

If you’re really watching, the internal competition scene for 2022 is starting to really take shape. Lets look at a few positions and really understand what this is starting to look like.

Catching

This appears to be almost a lock to return as Jacob Stallings and Michael Perez. The hope is that Carter Bins the recently acquired catcher from Seattle might be AAA ready in 2022.

I think what we saw recently was a message that the plan for catching on this ball club will be internally developed. Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Abrahan Gutierez and Bins were all brought in starting this Winter and I think that speaks to making Jake and Perez the bridge to that generation.

There is always a possibility they’ll choose to upgrade the backup position, but I’d say Perez is probably the front runner with his control and they really like his glove. Personally, I’m underwhelmed watching him but the numbers and direct comments from the team speak to him being pretty good.

First Base

This position is a weird one. Mostly because there are still decisions to be made. Colin Moran is here and his early season performance had many thinking about a reasonable extension. With the DH probably on the way, it might not be a bad guy to think about keeping around. That said, he’s also approaching that 2 years of control point that I keep telling you to look for, the one that equals a decision, trade, extend or roll the dice and kick it down the road.

At the same time, Mason Martin has shined for AA Altoona this season. His K rate is still not something ideal, and while you think of historic homerun hitters who struck out a ton, if you think the potential to be more is in there you develop it. That may very well be next year for Mason.

The Pirates have insulated themselves a bit though, especially if the rest of this season keeps John Nogowski looking like a viable option to man the spot. They also chose to use Phillip Evans last option rather than DFA, meaning they kept in the system one of the two guys they’ve had man the spot the majority of the time Colin has missed on the IL this season.

This looks like the mix I’d expect for Spring, probably doesn’t make sense to bring anyone else in. Especially having Hoy Park and Michael Chavis around who also have the ability to play there.

Middle Infield

Wow do they have options here. Hoy Park, Tucapita Marcano, Michael Chavis, Rodolfo Castro, Kevin Newman, Ji-hwan Bae, and Cole Tucker who I believe will be DFA’d to remove him from the 40-man roster (meaning he might not be here). This group really gives me hope that we’ll see some production from both positions.

Here’s the thing, because of position versatility, I think we could see as many as 5 of them make the roster. Nogowski is the key to whether this is 4 or 5. If he makes them keep him as a pure first baseman and bench piece they won’t have room for one of them.

This is an obvious upgrade from the mix last Spring. Instead of waiting for Peguero and Gonzales, the Pirates have an entire first wave to work in and through. Some of them with enough pedigree to find themselves to be a real answer.

Third Base

Ke’Bryan Hayes has played an excellent third base when he’s been healthy and he’s certainly shown enough to have locked down this position. The way this team (and really most teams in reality) like to rest players having a competent backup for him who can play elsewhere is important.

It’s a role Phillip Evans looked like he might grab onto and keeping him on the 40 man at least for now, says the Pirates are prepared to think he’s at least nice insurance.

So many options for this role, Chavis, Castro, Park, Marcano, Evans, heck even Hunter Owen will get another look in Spring.

This one is a lot like first base. No real need to bring in outside help, just grow and use what you have.

Outfield

Bryan Reynolds. There’s your lock. He’s absolutely going to be a starting something in 2022 and if I had to guess, it’s Center because he wants it to be. Yes, even if Travis Swaggerty makes the club.

Polanco will be bought out for 3 million dollars this Winter and no, I don’t think they’ll bring him back on the cheap.

I believe the team will retain Ben Gamel, he has one more option and he’s a nice player to have around who can play anywhere out there and even pitch in at first if need be.

Now, you have the aforementioned Swaggerty who should have probably been up here this season, his injury stole so much time from him this year though he may just have to start in AAA again.

Jared Oliva got some time, but the team just didn’t use him much. I like Jared, but man I don’t know if I can say he’s an answer. More than that, I’m sure the team doesn’t see him as such.

Anthony Alford may not know it but these last two months are his time to show he’s worth keeping around or following Dustin Fowler.

They are simply going to have to bring in another option from outside, unless they decide Hoy Park should make OF his home much more often. Even then, we’ve seen the benefit of having experienced outfielders this year.

My bet, they sign at least one more real outfield option.

I’m encouraged to see the club starting to turn the page and focusing on answering questions on players as we finish out 2021. That’s exactly what they should be doing. Next time I’ll check in on the Pitching Staff and Coaching.