Pirates Fall 11-3, to Reds

8-8-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

Before this contest the Pirates made a flurry of roster moves. Some expected, some a bit more surprising.

First, Erik Gonzalez and Colin Moran were ready to come off the IL. To make room for Colin, Phillip Evans was optioned to AAA Indianapolis. The Pirates chose to not make room for Erik Gonzalez, he was designated for assignment.

To replace Ben Gamel who was placed on the 10 day IL, the Pirates selected the contract of Anthony Alford who had been playing really well in AAA for quite some time.

The Pirates also released Dustin Fowler.

Alford rewarded the Pirates immediately with a 3 for 4 night and I guess we’ll just ignore being picked off second base following his double in his first at bat.

Bryan Reynolds was 3 for 4 in this one finishing a double short of the cycle.

But my friends, that’s where the good news largely ends.

OK, Mitch Keller wasn’t completely awful. He gave up 4 runs in 5 innings, but he showed some things we haven’t seen from him nearly enough. First, his fastball was firmer and placed better than we’ve seen this season. His breaking stuff was hitting his spots with more frequency.

This Reds lineup is just too good to win with me using words like “better” or “more frequent”. There is just too much danger to miss as often as really any Pirates pitcher typically does.

Still I liked the push back from Keller. He didn’t seem to panic when trouble came instead he minimized the damage believe it or not from the score.

Most of the runs were scored on Chasen Shreve and Chris Stratton, two guys who are supposed to represent 2/3 of the reliable Pirates bullpen contingent. They weren’t last night.

One more game in the series as the Pirates send Bryse Wilson to the mound against Tyler Mahle at 1:10 EST

News & Notes

  • The Pirates had two guys picked off in this ballgame. There is the reality that they aren’t good enough, and then there is being picked off, once while seemingly sleeping at first base by Hoy Park.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes looked more comfortable at the plate last night, and hopefully this is a trend, not much could impact this lineup more.
  • Rodolfo Castro and Hoy Park made up the middle infield tonight and both men are making it hard to take them out of the lineup.

Versatility Allows for the Best Bats in the Lineup

Something the Pirates have focused on since Ben Cherington came on board is the ability to play multiple positions. It has helped other teams build a winner and insulates the club from injuries to a degree.

We’ve just watched Hoy Park play 4 different positions in 4 starts, and he’s played each well. Rumor on the street is we’ll see a fifth as he is supposed to jump in at second base next. This is an extreme case of versatility but it also ensures the ability to make sure he has a place to play so they can keep his bat in the lineup.

Rodolfo Castro has played 4 different positions already in his young career and again, it’s allowed him to bounce all over the diamond so he continues to get his bat in the lineup.

None of this means Ke’Bryan Hayes is less than these guys because he always plays 3rd and it’s certainly not that he couldn’t handle another spot, but sometimes a guy gets so good at a spot you won’t want to move them.

This kind of versatility is going to really matter as the club continues to build. Tucupita Marcano is going to offer the same type of thing and what we’ll see as this continues is players no longer, for the most part, being trapped by position.

This will help the Pirates get to the point where the best bats get to MLB instead of watching a guy crush AAA and have no choice but to leave him rot because he’s blocked in MLB.

Adding to the advantage the Pirates are trying to build, the probability of the DH going universal should give even more flexibility to make sure the best offense is available when they’re ready.

Listen, none of this is going to strike out the side 3 innings in a row, that’s another matter, but the philosophy should look something like what the Cubs did nearly a decade ago and still did even this year. Kris Bryant never had one spot, bounced everywhere. Wherever they needed him to play, whenever they needed it.

Here’s an aspect that goes under the radar. This takes an unselfish player. One who probably knows he isn’t going to win many gold gloves. One who knows people are going to toss around labels like “utility guy” or “spot starter” and doesn’t care, because it helps the team. All Star voting will be tough since nobody knows what you are. Do they vote for you at third base when they’ve seen you play center against their club?

To be fair, it’s something we’ve seen before here even in the form of Erik Gonzalez, thing is he was used more to get people rest as opposed to trying to find a way to get his bat in the lineup. Now if guys like that can hit, man you really have something there.

These are the types being brought in. Just this trade deadline the Pirate grabbed Hoy Park, Marcano and Michael Chavis who can also play just about anywhere.

Follow me here if you will.

When I was raising my kids, I always wanted them to know how to cook, and not just heat up ingredients, I wanted them to know if they had flour they could make any number of things.

That’s what Ben is doing here. Instead of buying a loaf of bread for Derek Shelton, he’s instead making sure Derek has the flour so he can make just about anything he wants.

If a player is injured sure it won’t be great, but having 3 or 4 guys who can play there for a stretch is far better than calling up that guy from AAA who maybe isn’t ready because he plays at an area of need.

The stigma of bouncing around isn’t what it used to be in MLB, but for a market that hasn’t really seen it and still refers to everyone who does it as “the next Josh Harrison” is really underselling what’s happening here.

We could start to really see this pay off as early as this season should Marcano and Chavis join Park in MLB. Prepare for some very interesting configurations and more than anything prepare for the difference between a guy like Phillip Evans trying to be versatile and a guy like Park actually excelling everywhere.

Pirates Drop Series Opener in Cincy 7-4

8-6-21 – By Gary Morgan @gaymo2007 on Twitter

Last game against Milwaukee, I told you all about how the bullpen was an issue this club would not often overcome. Last night the bullpen held the Reds in check, problem was Wil Crowe gave up 7 runs in the first two innings, and believe it or not it could have been worse.

OK, you got me, Duane Underwood Jr. would have given up a couple too…

Point is, if it’s the starting pitching or the relievers or the weak offense, the stars aren’t going to align on most nights.

The Pirates tried something new last night with the lineup. Hoy Park leading off again but this time, instead of Ke’Bryan Hayes taking his normal spot batting second the Pirates decided to bat him cleanup for the first time in his career.

It seemed weird timing because Hayes is mired in one of his worst stretches as an MLB player, in fact he came into the game sporting an 0-19 streak at the plate. Before the game though, Derek Shelton took some time to personally work with Ke’ and while it only resulted in one hit tonight, I can’t help feeling that batting him cleanup was a way to show they still trusted his ability.

Interesting.

The Pirates tried to fight back and had opportunities to tie the ballgame, but the hole was just too deep.

Back at it tonight with JT Brubaker vs Wade Miley.

News & Notes

  • Anthony Banda made his Pirates debut pitching an inning scoreless
  • Nick Mears continues to build, tossing another scoreless inning tonight.
  • This series will destroy this staff if they don’t get a decent outing from someone. Brubaker today, Keller tomorrow and Wilson on Sunday. Now, I’m not a pessimist but it seems tonight’s contest is pretty important in this regard.
  • Colin Moran should be coming back soon, and John Nogowski has come back to reality. I’d like to see the Bucs stick with this Hayes in the cleanup spot thing for a stretch. It’s provided Reynolds with some much needed protection even if misguided on the part of our opponents.
  • Kevin Newman had two more hits last night. He continues to improve with the bat. Look, he dug too deep a hole to ever make his numbers look passable this year, but again, he’s not someone I see the club just flushing.
  • Gregory Polanco had a very impressive night two games ago, tonight, not so much. 0-4
  • If you watched the first two innings of this game, you can’t discount the importance of Wil Crowe fighting through 2 more innings.

Finding Answers is What it’s All About the Rest of the Way

This is always a strange time to cover a baseball team. Well, it’s a strange time to cover a baseball team that isn’t in a pennant race anyway.

See, there’s a sweet spot for a team in the Pirates position. At the beginning of the season you at least have some hope, even if it’s completely misguided. That said, the Penguins are still in season and in this market, they are very much so on the march toward the playoffs most years.

By the time we hit August you run up against the Steelers, and without going too deep, they’re usually pretty competitive.

The Pirates don’t compete with these clubs on the field or for that matter off. When the Pirates are playing well or in a race they get their fair share of attention but when they’re down, they rightfully fade to the background.

If you’re reading this, you know what I’m talking about, and while you’ll probably stay interested in all the comings and goings of prospects, the actual day to day just isn’t gonna grab too many of you.

Oh I’ll keep telling you about it, kinda my job you know?

There is a benefit to all this though. Baseball is not a sport that goes hand in hand with knee jerk reactions, I mean it’s not great for any of them, but most of all baseball is all about averages. Sometimes the cover provided by the NFL ramping back up gives the room to really evaluate development without the constant chants to DFA someone who’s pitched 5 innings or the guy who hits .300 over a week or two and clearly must be extended for 7 years.

This time of year it’s all about figuring out what internal options they have already in place along with who clearly isn’t.

So that’s what we’re going to focus on. When we find someone or we think they have something special to offer, let’s highlight it and talk through it.

For instance, Hoy Park had elite OBA in AAA this season and his speed paired with that ability make him a great candidate to bat leadoff. We saw him get that opportunity once already and I’d like to see more. See, it’s not just can this guy hit, it’s also what role does he fill? Let’s face it, lead off is a huge hole left by Adam Frazier’s trade. Hoy has an advantage here, he gets a chance to play a bit this year and lay a base of MLB contribution before his next real competition even gets to play baseball again, Travis Swaggerty.

That said, it can’t be seen as a bad thing that Travis won’t immediately be asked to jump in and be ready to lead the charge night in and out.

We also have the closer role, which clearly David Bednar has a handle on and what stinks about this situation is he has no real competition. I mean, where does competition for a closer role come from? Usually the set up guys right? Well therein lies the problem, the only one they have right now is Chris Stratton and bluntly, he’s not traditional to the role, he’s just the best they have left.

Sam Howard could potentially compete for the job and at some point late next year Blake Cederlind has a shot at working his way back into the conversation. There are some guys in AAA I hoped would play a role in this pen and they still may, but their 2021 performances didn’t really live up to the threshold that the Pirates needed or wanted to see. Joe Jacques, Beau Sulser, Hunter Stratton and Matt Eckelman.

The moral of the story is really that the Pirates are going to have to go get some BP arms next year, there simply aren’t enough options.

These are the types of things we’ll be watching. Second base, Right field, Short Stop, First Base, Bullpen and Closer, Starting rotation.

Much like the Steelers will be evaluating youngsters starting tonight to see who can or can’t be part of the puzzle, the Pirates will use the rest of this season to find answers.

There aren’t enough. But they’re coming.

Next year we’ll be having discussions that touch on many more viable options coming. We’ll be talking about Miguel Yajure, Roansy Contreras, Cody Bolton, Omar Cruz and those are just arms.

Yeah, for some people baseball season officially ends when the Steelers kick off tonight, but for many of us, next season starts now.

Oh, and Go Steelers! Here’s to a great season.

Pirates Lose 4-2 to Brewers, Bullpen Falters Late

8-4-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

Bad choices or no choices?

That’s really the tale of the Pirates bullpen lately. It’s frustrating as hell, but as long as the Pirates are going to use their starters more like openers, either to protect their arms or keep them from seeing a lineup more than twice it’s going to wind up being the single biggest reason for losses most nights.

Let’s start with the good. Steven Brault was good, Hoy Park and Bryan Reynolds were good.

The Pirates had themselves sitting on a 2-1 lead in the 7th after Brault combined with Cody Ponce to only surrender one run.

David Bednar, Duane Underwood Jr. and Chris Stratton were all officially-unofficially not available today after throwing significant innings last night. So Derek Shelton went with Kyle Keller, who did what he often does, went and got two outs, looked good doing it too.

Then just like Monday night, he got a tight sphincter trying to get the last out. Walked a batter, gave up a single and Shelton had seen enough. The Brewers went with lefty Rowdy Tellez and the Pirates countered with Chasen Shreve.

Kyle Keller has brutal numbers against lefties, Shreve has very good numbers against them. So of course, 3 run homerun to make it 4-2 Brewers.

I saw a chorus of “Shelton doesn’t know what he’s doing” tweets, but honestly, I’m not sure what he could have done differently.

You want to think back to the days when Teke could go 7 games a week but those days just aren’t coming back.

This bullpen that was a strength early on, is now a weakness. Hard to blame this on trades, they only moved one piece you could even pretend was valuable.

I’d blame injury but Sam Howard is the only one I really want back.

Maybe you can get mad about DFAs of Crick, Hartlieb, Feliz, but two of those three weren’t getting it done and right or wrong (personally think wrong) they just didn’t like Hartlieb enough to let him pitch much.

Now they have a hodgepodge of pitchers. Ponce who is still really prepared to be a starter, Duane Underwood who has been a batting practice hitter really for a month now. Luis Oviedo who they won’t use and well you’ve seen him pitch, how can you disagree? Chasen Shreve who is ok at best. Kyle Keller a never was who I’ll be shocked if he ever is. Shea Spitzbarth a rookie who they picked up in the AAA portion of the rule five draft (too early to classify yet but I have high hopes). Nick Mears, a rookie who has great stuff but certainly shouldn’t be counted on for leverage as of right now. Anthony Banda will be here soon, I don’t expect much based on what I’ve seen from him in the past.

Bednar is good. Stratton is good.

That my friends is not a good bullpen. And while I understand the frustration, you can’t pin this on Shelton. Find another avenue, it shouldn’t be that hard.

Sometimes I wish there was more to the story, but this bullpen just isn’t going to help you preserve too many 2-1 leads.

Devin Williams set down the Pirates in the 9th and game.

4-2 Brewers.

On to Cincinnati tomorrow as Wil Crowe takes the mound to face Sonny Gray

News & Notes

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes was a late sub in this game as part of a double switch. I’ve seen a ton of chatter lately as people scramble for excuses for how he’s performed as of late. It’s not his wrist. Think of what you’re saying. You’re saying the Pirates have taken someone they really value and asked him in a meaningless season mind you, to fight through an injury. Think even further, hey have options to play 3B like Castro or Difo, hell even Evans if need be. Reality is, he’s simply been scouted, and combined with coming back to earth (AKA what his minor league history said in the first place). Look, he’s going to be a very good baseball player, but that first month did him no favors as far as healthy expectations. The truth somewhere in the middle lies.
  • Steven Brault looked good today. Not spectacular, but Brault rarely is spectacular. He looked like himself. Getting ground balls, throwing strikes and quickly working through his innings. Good to have a competent experienced pitcher back in the mix.
  • Hoy Park looked really good again today. Two more hits including a double.
  • Reynolds was 2 for 2 with 2 walks. I mean what more can you say?
  • I know I just ripped the bullpen, but Cody Ponce was great. 2 IP, 3 Ks no hits. Really welcome and needed.
  • Miguel Yajure stars a rehab assignment in Bradenton this week.
  • Sam Howard is throwing from 120 feet.
  • Oneil Cruz and Roansy Contreras are both starting to throw. Roansy is said to be closer and the plan is to have both of them back before the end of the season.

Pirates Come From 4-0, No Hit Through 6 and Win 8-5 in Extras, Polanco Has Special Night

8-3-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

The beauty of baseball is how often it just makes no sense at all.

You know, I’m watching this game and the Pirates had baserunners, and even genuine chances. Enough that I took to twitter to complain that yet again they had a runner at third with nobody out and couldn’t drive him home.

Somewhere along the way after watching Max Kranick miss location on his fastball and breaking stuff a few too many times to call it ok, and Duane Underwood allow a run in his two innings of relief I looked up and realized, hey, the Pirates are being no hit here.

Just as quickly I noticed Adrian Houser was up over 100 pitches through 6. The Brewers sent him out one more time and he walked the leadoff guy which got him lifted. His fifth walk of the evening, which led to his only charged run.

Daniel Norris would not present much resistance as the Bucs scored 5 runs in all off he and John Cutlass to take a one run lead.

Reynolds pinch hit with the bases loaded and scorched a ball to short that was mishandled, mangled really by Willy Adames scoring a run and keeping the bases loaded for Hoy Park.

Not too shabby.

The next inning the Brewers would tie the score at 5 off of Chasen Shreve and we headed to the 8th. Brewers with a thin bullpen sent Angel Perdomo to the mound, he would surrender two hits to Gamel and Nogowski to put runners at the corners and they went to Miguel Sanchez to try to preserve the tie with Newman at the plate. Newman drove one to, eh, fairly deep ish right field and for some reason they didn’t send Gamel. I think I would have, but it would have been close and Garcia has a cannon.

Tie Game, Bottom 8th, which Chris Stratton shut down.

Devin Williams got the party started in the 9th. A walk to Polanco was all he would surrender.

The Bottom of the 9th went to David Bednar trying to force extra frames.

He did it, thanks to Gregory Polanco.

In the top of the 10 Ke’Bryan Hayes started at second, moved to third with one out, then two outs and guess who, Gregory Polanco with a drippler base hit to score the run 6-5 Bucs.

The Bucs would load the bases and bring Bryan Reynolds who didn’t start the game up for his third at bat. He would deliver with a two run single to go up 3 in the 10th. 8-5.

Bednar would stay in the game in the 10th. And 2 innings, 2 zeros, 26 pitches.

Bucs win 8-5.

Steven Brault is back tomorrow facing Freddy Peralta at 2:10 in Milwaukee.

News & Notes

  • Gregory Polanco had two more stolen bases tonight, he is now 13 for 13. Craziest thing really.
  • I know this is going to be countered with comments on his defense, but Gregory Polanco has been good offensively since returning from the IL. Tonight he was 2 for 3 with 3 walks and 2 stolen bases.
  • Kevin Newman was 2 for 5, he continues to trend up with the bat.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to struggle. 0 for 5 tonight and he’s getting to the point I might see if putting Castro at 3rd for a game or two and giving him a chance to work on some things might be in order. He’s getting hits, and I’m not panicking about him, but the way they do things he’ll get a day off soon anyhow, make it two. He’s not missing by much, but it’s been a long time since he’s had a meaningful hit.
  • David Bednar pitched the 9th and 10th to finish this one out.
  • Up until tonight, after leading by 4 the Brewers have won 50 straight games. Wow what an incredible stat that is and a testament to their pitching staff

Steven Brault Returns to a Rotation in Desperate Need of His Services

8-3-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

Steven Brault is finally scheduled to make his season debut for the Pirates on Wednesday against he Milwaukee Brewers. Long time coming and his absence was somewhat brushed over with the contributions of Tyler Anderson.

Let’s be clear, Steven isn’t going to make this team a thorn in the side of competitors the rest of the year but that doesn’t mean he has no important role to play here.

Steven is a left hander and as Pirates fans, we know sometimes that alone is enough to have him cement himself as a member of the rotation. But Brault is more than that, he’s consistent and controlled through 2024. Meaning he isn’t a lock to get moved this off season, but he is entering the year where the club has to decide if they want to employ his services beyond his controllable years.

Something I hear quite often is this guy isn’t part of the future so who cares, well, I’m here to tell you there are quite a few players who will come and go who won’t play a role physically when the window opens, but those players may also contribute tangibly on the way there.

Steven can lend his talents to this team now, let’s not forget they have to play baseball on the way to good too. He’s been through most of what the kids they’re parading up and down are just beginning.

He’s been someone who shouldn’t make the roster.

He’s been someone who shouldn’t make the rotation, cast away to the bullpen.

He’s been someone who fought through being pegged as a bullpen arm and worked his way back into the rotation where he became steady, even at times the best they had to offer, which ultimately says more about the team itself than Steven.

Point is, you can look at his numbers and rightly peg him for what he is, a 4 or 5 starter or long relief lefty who probably won’t play a role here when it counts. But don’t discount the life experience he’s gained through nothing more than his own ability to be told no countless times and keep coming back to the mound to shout yes.

As you watch prospects rise through the ranks on their way to MLB with their high 90’s stuff and their crazy spin rates that we sometimes forget the things that help beyond raw talent or coaching. Having guys who have experienced failure, perseverance, and yes, sometimes rising above everything you’ve faced to become a valuable member of a baseball team.

That’s the Steven Brault I’m anxious to get back. That’s the Steven Brault that could have really helped nurse some of these guys along throughout the season.

I’m sure plenty of you will just prefer to see another youngster get his starts, but I’d encourage you to see the benefit of his presence on the youngsters that do get those starts and or bullpen cracks. Steven speaks both their languages, and he’s learned the language in an immersive environment.

Sure you can bring in other guys like him, but not guys who’ve done it as a Pirates pitcher, and that means something.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Deadline Round Up

8-3-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd

Joe Boyd – Today, we wanted to sum up the Pirates’ trade deadline, potentially looking at some threads, looking at some values and what this means for the strategy Cherington had in mind.  Personally, I’m not going to get into the deals that happened elsewhere as a comparison.  Perhaps Justin will?  But let’s first look at the value of the Pirates traded away and what came back to the system:

Justin Verno – It’s important to note that Joe is using Wilson’s prospect trade value of $4 million. If you took a look at the article where we evaluated the RichRod deal the other day you might remember I used his projections and surplus value, which makes the RichRod deal a win on the surplus side. It’s fair to use the prospect value as Wilson has had so little opportunity to grow in the majors. 

And for what we are doing here Joe I think it’s best we leave other organizations trades out the equation? After all, the Pirates didn’t have a Kris Brynat or Joe Gallo to move.  And I suppose we could take a look at every deal to determine if the trades were “over pays” or “under pays” but all in all that won’t be as useful as people think it would be? If a gallon of milk is $4 and one guy buys it for $3 and another buys it for $10 then both “overpaid” for the milk “on average” I’d prefer to see how Cherington did with the spotlight on him and him alone. 

JB – Former friend of the show, @ds_tdk18, had an interesting Twitter thread last year that caught my eye.  So right before the trade deadline, I tried to replicate it to see if it held any weight or if Cherington was looking for similar players.  What I found was rather interesting.

I have utilized z-scores in the past to measure similarity of prospects, but today I wanted to use z-scores to look at how well players are performing.  So to put it simply, an average player will have a z-score of zero (0), and the more positive, the better that player is statistically amongst his peers.  Here’s a visual of what a z-score looks like:

So David notes that Theo Epstein would look for four characteristics of a player: power (measured via ISO), getting on base (measured via OBP), grinds out at bats (measured by Pitches per Plate Appearance, or PPA & K%), and defense.  Fangraphs doesn’t have a metric here, so we’ll just ignore that for now.  At the end, I simply sum these z-scores to see who has performed the best in the 2021 season.  The entire spreadsheet can be found here: Minor League z-scores.  Please note, I have filtered to AB > 100 which gives us over 1200 MiLB players.

So what first jumps out to me is that it looked like Cherington may have had his sights set on these types of players.  Park, Suwinski, and Gutierrez were the top ranked player in these statistics for their respective teams.  On top of that, players like Suwinski and Gutierrez look like players that have figured something out at the plate.  In Suwinski’s case, he’s tapped into some power and Gutierrez appears to have gotten his weight under control.  If these two are not flashes in the pan, and actually have turned a development corner, that’s some talent on the upswing added to the roster. 

The linchpin of this deadline is obviously Tucupita Marcano.  He does not strike out (12.6%) and he is a solid OBP guy.  In an article for The Athletic, Rob Biertempfel surveyed five scouts about the return for Frazier, and one scout was willing to put a 70-grade on Marcano’s hit tool. “Marcano’s got an advanced approach with very good contact skills. Some guys, you say they’re gap-to-gap (hitters). He’s a line-to-line guy, meaning he can shoot the ball anywhere. … He hits it where it’s pitched; he can hit the fastball, he can adjust to offspeed. … He’s got a narrow frame (6-foot-0, 170 pounds), and those kind of guys generally don’t have a lot of power. But there’s some wiry strength in there. I think he’s gonna grow into some power. It’ll be fringy, maybe 12 to 15 (home runs per year), but he’s got a chance to be a high-.200s to .300s hitter. I rated him a 70 hitter on our (20-to-80) scale, and I don’t throw that out there very much.”

Many have said he is potentially a younger Frazier.  And if that’s the case, is that a bad thing?  The whole point about trading Frazier, as good as he’s been, is because he does not align with the timeline.  If Marcano can be a hitter of Frazier’s caliber and be under team control through 2026/2027, then you have to be happy about that. The other note about Marcano is that he was off the table during the Musgrove talks.  Was Preller playing a long game here to dupe Cherington into making him appear to be a highly valuable prospect to get Frazier 6 months later?  I, um, highly doubt that.  Now we clearly know that Cherington has been trying to acquire Marcano for quite some time, so their models and/or scouts see something here.  And Preller obviously likes the player as well if he would not even discuss him when dealing for Musgrove.  So we have to be a bit optimistic with this player.  Is he a 40-FV on Fangraphs?  Yes, but Fangraphs is only one source, so maybe they are the ones that have the player misclassified?  I’m not trying to put on rose-colored glasses here, I’m just trying to not write the player off before he sets foot into PNC Park.  

Back to those sim scores.  I have not pulled together any interesting statistics that I think they are looking for with pitchers.  Partially, because our friend David didn’t do the hard work for me earlier and partially because I’ve been on vacation.  But I have the sim score spreadsheet I had used for the draft and I’ve repurposed it once for Joaquin Tejada, so let’s go back to that well for the other pitchers the team acquired. 

Bryse Wilson – Aaron Civale – I love this comp because Civale was a player I was always interested in based on his high spin rates.  Wilson, not a spin rate guy, has more velo but they have similar secondary stuff (based on Fangraphs grades).  Civale was a 40-FV that turned into a 1.5 WAR type of player.  If Wilson can turn it around in Pittsburgh, Civale’s production would be much welcomed.

Ricky DeVito – Michael Burrows – I love when a Pirate is a close comp to a player.  Both DeVito and Burrows appear destined for the bullpen. And Burrows is something of a spin rate machine (2500 RPM on his fastball, and 2800 on his breaking ball) so DeVito lacks that trait, but they do have comparably graded stuff.  

Michell Milano – Nick Mears – As I’ve said before.. I like making connections to current Pirates players, and here’s another one!  Milano is well-built and touches 96 mph with a future 60-grade on his curveball. He doesn’t have Mears’ fastball, but he has better secondary stuff.  He’s also three years younger than Mears, so there is room for development.  He’s probably another candidate for the bullpen. 

Joaquin Tejada – Yoljeldriz Diaz

You may have noticed some of the players in the table showing the value returned to Pittsburgh have an asterisk.  I have touched on those players here and they are players that have an opportunity to get a grade bump for one reason or another.  The now famous example of this bump is Liover Peguero.  The Marte deal looked rather light until Peguero got his grade bump to a 50-FV and all seemed to make sense.  Marcano could get a bump because it seems clear that the industry insiders like him more than those outside, Suwinski’s found some power, Gutierrez has found a way to control his weight, and Tejada is so young that he has a chance to continue to develop.  If you give each of those players a FV-grade bump, the deals look pretty good.  I’m not saying they all will get that bump and I’m not saying one or two of them won’t blow up into a superstar.  The truth is that we just don’t know and Justin and my job is to use the information we are given to provide cold, hard wins and losses based on today’s information.  

I’ll close by saying that the deals at the deadline were not as exciting or prospect-laden as, say, the Cubs but this was the close of a month that saw just an incredible influx of talent to the farm system, and even some pieces that will contribute to the Major League club immediately.  It may not always feel like it, but it’s an exciting time to be a Buccos fan. 

JV – Correct me if I’m wrong here Joe, but we aren’t here to tell people what to think of these trades. When we started this the concept was to give people some ideas of how certain guys could be valued. To give people something to use so they could explore on their own and have fun looking at different packages and prospects. To have a dialogue. 

Some people will hate every trade and others will love every trade. If we look at Bryse Wilson as an MLB player with projections and a surplus value, these trades are better balanced, and to be fair we probably should as he has in fact graduated.  And we had decided to use one source here, Fangraphs, and for a few reasons that we’ve mentioned, but one thing it does is it gives us consistency in our evaluations. I mention this because  if we stepped out of that for a second we could find more balance in how Marcano is evaluated being he is a much higher grade on MLB Pipeline, a 50 on the scale. So please everyone, read up, have fun and make up your own minds on how these trades look. There’s certainly no shortage of info out there on these prospects. 

As for me? Well, I think Cherington won some and lost some. That’s the way it is with trades. The Frazier deal felt a little light, and using fangraphs values and the method we’ve used, it is. Whereas the Holmes deal, the Anderson deal and the RichRod deals felt like winners to me? 

Joe, you mentioned the Peguero “bump” earlier, something we’ve also talked about in these articles, and I do think we have a few guys that could be in line for that kind of bump and relatively soon. Marcano and Diego, I think, could be in line for a bump. Bins and Park, I think, should be looking at a bump. If these guys get that and get it soon then these trades will have a very different ring to them. Joe, I think that’s worth keeping an eye on?  After all, no trade is won at 4:01 PM on July 30th(or whatever day the deadline is). There’s a lot of work for the Bucs to do now. 

My final thought here, Ben Cherington caught me completely off guard here, man. I was expecting 40+ or 45 kids in the lower levels. And what we got, for the most part, was guys that are knock, knock, knockin  on the doors at PNC Park, and one that reported to PNC days after the trade. 

-Bryse Wilson took the mound on Monday and pitched 5 innings of 1 run ball 

-Hoy Park now has his first hit at PNC Park. 

-Marcano and Diego could realistically have a cup of coffee this year. 

-Bins is in AA and could be a fast raiser making his debut sometime next year. 

I can’t help but wonder if BC and his staff think the team is closer to being a competitor than the 2024 window he seemed to be building towards with his other trades? Or is this just how the trades came together? 

That’s it for now, at least on the 2021 trade deadline. But we aren’t done here Joe? We are months away from the Winter Meetings, however, a lot of what will transpire in December will be a result of how the season unwinds. What do you say we take a look at what to watch for as the season comes to the finish line? Who could be available at the Winter Meetings and why? 

JB – Justin’s right in that we are not here to tell you whether or not you should like a player.  We are just here to provide you with the a value for prospects in return.  And even then, there was subjectivity.  Just look at Wilson, we could put a $4M value on him up to nearly $40M!  That’s insane variance.  That’s the difficulty of judging trades immediately.  However, that’s what we’ve attempted to do.  We’ve hopefully provided a framework to look at these deals.  So when you hear that a player like Adam Frazier will be traded for a 60-FV prospect, you’ll question such a report.  We never said that this was a Rosetta Stone, but at least a way to view trades in a relatively objective way and can discuss trades rationally.  

So yea, Justin alluded to some ideas that are on the horizon, so hopefully you’re not sick of hearing from us just yet.  We have some different topics coming shortly that certainly fall within our lane and maybe one or two topics that are outside the box.  Let’s see how far we can take this thing.

Brewers Defeat Pirates 6-2, Young Pitching Shined and Faltered

8-2-21 – By Gary Morgan @garymo2007 on Twitter

Young Pitching is always a story.

It’s either promising or deflating. Exciting or excruciating.

This was honestly a tale of two games. First was young Bryse Wilson taking the mound for 5 beautiful innings of one run baseball. He controlled the fastball, painted corners, threw gutsy breaking pitches to tough hitters and overall just looked in command. He did it all only surrendering 2 hits and 2 walks, in 73 pitches.

Of course he got a little help from his new friends to save a run.

Extend Reynolds. Now. Through the end of the decade.

The Pirates bats were relatively cold.

At this point you can feasibly say the first “game” ended.

It was 1-0 and the two sides were locked in a pitcher’s duel. The Brewers started lefty Eric Lauer who also went five. And this one was officially a bullpen game, a match up that will favor few against the Brewers this season.

The Brewers simply went to anther of their seemingly endless barrage of left handed arms. Veteran Brent Suter delivered 2 scoreless. Then newly acquired Daniel Norris pitched the 8th and kept the Bucs off the board.

The Pirates young bullpen would not perform nearly as well. First up was Kyle Keller who started the inning recording two quick outs before things came undone. Shame of it was he really didn’t pitch all that badly. The walks were really long and professional at bats, the big hit was a triple that Escobar just went and got, actually a really nice pitch.

Obviously not what you want to see but it wasn’t as bad as the line looks.

Nick Mears would follow him was drilled in the back of the leg by a line drive. They allowed him to stay in much like Chase De Jong a couple weeks back, and ultimately wound up pulling him after he surrendered a 3 run homerun to Escobar again. He recorded two outs, and honestly, hope the kid is ok. He’s struggled early but I really do like this kid’s arm.

Shea Spitzbarth made his debut for the Pirates in relief of Mears and pitched 1.1 innings of scoreless ball. Really nice to see and Craig Toth I’m sure is smiling in Florida. This was a guy Craig has liked for a while. (Think I told you guys he liked Castro early too right?)

Regardless, at this point it’s 6-0 and the Brewers finally decided to use a right handed pitcher tonight, John Axford.

He struggled. Hit Bryan Reynolds, then gave up two singles and walked in a run before being lifted for Boxberger. No, not Hamburger helper, Boxberger. Kevin Newman was up first and he flew out to right, two outs.

Wilmer Difo now, bases loaded, 2 outs down five. He would draw another bases loaded walk to score the second of the inning. 6-2

Next up Phillip Evans. And he looked at strike three, and it wasn’t borderline. Game.

The point of all the extra detail on the bullpen arms and such, is really, that’s how you have to watch these games now. You watch for individuals that might be part of this puzzle being built. You evaluate what roles people profile as helping the most. What you can’t do is just read box scores and decide everyone stinks because their ERA is this or their WHIP is that.

You watch. You pay attention to what they do well, what they need to work on. Things that make them special or different. How they handle pressure. How often the friggin’ create pressure too right?

There are some of you rebuild masochists out there who constantly scream bring up all the young guys n’at! Well, this is what it looks like. And if you ingest it like you’re a scout yourself, you start to learn the difference between stinks and won’t ever not stink versus stinks but there’s this one thing he needs to do.

Patience my friends, young and bad isn’t quite the same as veteran and bad, but it sure can be just as hard to watch.

6-2 Brewers

Back at it tomorrow night as Max Kranick takes the hill looking to follow up his last outing facing Adrian Houser

News & Notes

  • Bryse Wilson is only 23 years old. Luis Oviedo and Rodolfo Castro are the only two players younger.
  • Bryse Wilson debuted for Atlanta in 2018 and has bounced from AAA to MLB 36 times in 4 seasons. He’ll get a chance to stick here in Pittsburgh and this could be a much needed shot in the arm if reaches his potential here.
  • Rodolfo Castro continues to make his case. Playing good defense at second base and hitting the ball hard. I’m not convinced he’ll stick yet but he has to have them thinking.
  • Kevin Newman is hitting the ball hard, frequently. His approach in Spring is almost completely back. I don’t know where it went, and he honestly may have already shaken confidence in his future too deeply but a strong finish from Kevin down the stretch could really make things interesting.
  • Nogowski had a double tonight. He’s absolutely cooled off but he isn’t disappearing.
  • Lotta people calling for Hoy Park to play tonight, well, remember all that stuff up there about the lefties Milwaukee throws at you? I think I get it for a kid when you just brought him up and they’re starting a tough one. Overall, he’ll work his way in. Think back to how long it took Ben Gamel, a veteran, to finally become a regular.
  • I don’t know what the Pirates will do when Moran is healthy this week or next, but if I’m making the decision, I’m keeping Castro and dropping Evans. At some point let’s show it’s a meritocracy rather than just say it.
  • Steven Brault will make his season debut on Wednesday. A much needed veteran presence on the staff. Should be Brault, Wilson, Brubaker, Keller, Crowe and Kuhl if they stick with 6 most of the rest of the way.
  • That said, Chad Kuhl is out on COVID list right now, so that’ll have to wait.
  • Bryan Reynolds is a legitimate Gold Glove contender for CF. He leads the NL in defensive runs saved.
  • 3-11 so far this season against the Brewers
  • 52 different players have appeared for the Pirates this season. The record is 55

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

8-2-21 – By Gary Morgan

I’ve been busy, along with everyone else who is writing, talking or covering baseball this last week. People who do this stuff believe it or not spend a ton of time building up to the trade deadline. We’ve had Joe Boyd and Justin Verno telling you all about future values and building out fair packages as examples. Craig has been diving into the prospects returned to give you a fair look at what was returned in the way only he can. And I’ve tried to remain focused on the fact there is still an MLB team to cover while dipping my toe into evaluation as well.

It’s all hands on deck and sadly, Ben Cherington doesn’t call us before pulling a deal together to make sure you aren’t going to be at your Sister’s house for her birthday first.

The bottom line, this is a stressful time to cover a baseball team and I’m personally very happy it’s over.

1. There is No Reason to Hate Gregory Polanco

The vitriol with which Polanco is spoken quite honestly sickens me.

I get it, he hasn’t turned into the player people thought he would be. But lazy, stupid, wishing death on him, calling for someone to drill him in the head with a fastball.

C’mon, this is just gross.

You can not think he’s a good player, but this is not a bad man. He’s universally everyone’s friend, the first over the railing when something good happens to greet whoever did something special, even if that player is threatening his playing time.

I understand this is online culture now and he certainly isn’t above criticism, but I’d like to think we as a people could find a way to be above talking about a baseball player more harshly than Charles Manson. He’s not lazy, he’s not stupid, he’s just not a very good baseball player.

The thing is, most of my readers already know the difference so for 99% of you this will be a waste of words, but for that 1%, knock it off, and pray you find a way to be half the person Gregory Polanco is.

And I’ll tell you right now, he has no future on this team. This isn’t about defending the player, this is about defending the man. An honestly good man, one who would read some of the things you write about him and still greet you with a smile.

2. This Whole Keller Thing Doesn’t Make Sense

When you make a tough decision to send down someone you think has no MLB recourse to improve, one would think these steps would follow.

  1. Identify any mechanical issues
  2. Find any tipping that may be going on
  3. Formulate a plan, and deploy it

And here’s what we got instead.

  1. No mechanical issues, just a minor tweak from the stretch to a full windup
  2. Nothing identified as pitch tipping
  3. Throw your hands in the air, call him back up and see what happens

I’m confused.

His stats in AAA didn’t say he was ready. The reports from the coaches really didn’t speak to any changes or improvements.

So what happened here really? I doubt we’ll ever truly know. Maybe my 3rd point really is the whole story. If so, why not just wait and deal with this in the Spring?

Maybe he’s resistant to change. Maybe the team did in fact identify some things but Mitch, who continues to say he’s feeling great or even likes what he’s doing, just isn’t trying to hear it.

Did you ever read a scouting report and see the word “coachable”. It’s probably the last thing you care about, way below his raw power, or his hit tool, arm strength. Now I didn’t see any red flags on Mitch Keller’s but I certainly won’t rule out that this is exactly what we’re seeing.

Hey, if the team and Mitch aren’t going to be direct, it’s fair game to speculate.

3. Two Seasons of Evaluation, of Everyone?

If you want job security, be a coach of a team knowingly not putting top end talent on the field. How could you hold him or his staff accountable? Is he making bad choices in the lineup? Well, look at his choices. Is he making bad moves with the bullpen? Again, but look at his options.

As a fan you sit here and wait for a decision you can actually hang around Shelton’s neck. Why didn’t he pinch hit in the 4th with the bases loaded? What was he thinking bringing that guy in to protect a one run lead when he had these other options.

It’s not just Shelton. Look at Oscar Marin, the main criticism there is that nobody has really had a breakout. You give a coach like that a roster full of young pitchers and expect him to find something, but he too gets cover. Eckstein the same.

So I’m asking, right here, right now, at what point is t time to evaluate the coaches?

We certainly don’t have an answer, but I’ll tell you when it better not be. When the team does have all that talent, that is not the time to decide you’ve made an error.

A team like this can’t afford to waste a season with good players on a hunch that they were right, so here’s hoping someone is holding them to some standard.

4. Directly Back to the Waiver Wire

The Pirates today picked up Anthony Banda, a lefty who was DFAd by the New York Mets presumably for the bullpen.

Career 6.14 ERA and -0.9 WAR. I suspect this is part of the continued effort to get through this season. Arms, and unfortunately moves like these are less about discovering talent or finding a piece, they’re about finding someone who the team simply doesn’t have to concern themselves with who they think has a chance to throw some innings.

If he turns out to be more than that, great. If he doesn’t, completely expected. Look, I’ll tell you when there’s a difference. If they pick up a guy like Austin Davis, they think there is something there and hey, maybe you can unlock something and flip him for another shot at someone like Michael Chavis.

This isn’t that. To me there are options I’d rather see in AAA who could help, but in the greater scheme of things, so be it.

5. Maybe Michael Perez Isn’t Done Developing

First, I’m not going to sit here and try to tell you to look right past his .172 average. that’s not good, and every other number I show you wouldn’t make it good.

I will say, he’s taken a beating from the fan base this year and yes a few of us writers. OK it was me alight?

He’s appeared in all of 45 ballgames for the Pirates and in 146 at bats he has 7 homeruns.

Look, I already said I wasn’t going to blow you away with stats.

The Pirates just before the All Star break mentioned that Jacob Stallings had already surpassed his career high for games caught. They also noted something else that most of us ignored, Michael Perez was in a position where he was barely playing, and because he was the backup catcher, he was barely even getting pinch hits.

As we’ve seen his playing time increase, we’ve seen some of his defensive prowess start to show itself, and we’ve also seen his at bats start to look better.

Don’t believe me? Trust your eyes more? Me too if I’m honest. But how many players can you find who have a .172 batting average and a positive WAR 0.2?

It’s not important that Perez become a starting quality player, but a capable back up until the Pirates develop someone else isn’t too much to ask. Perhaps as we see the Bucs give him more opportunity, that’s exactly what Michael will become.

We spend a ton of time worrying about who will be the next star, but maybe we need to open ourselves to seeing guys develop into important roles like this too.

Next year Michael enters his first year of arbitration and he’ll assuredly not get much, but the rest of this season will help show if he’s worth even that.