4-29-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Cubs may have a red hot offense which leads MLB in runs scored but they also have some stellar pitching led by today’s starter, Shota Imanaga.
The sophomore southpaw Imanaga had a strong showing in 2024 after signing with the Cubs following six seasons in Japan’s NPB league. He posted a 2.91 ERA over 173.1 innings with 174 strikeouts to 28 walks, including two scoreless starts against the Pirates where he totaled 14 innings, 4 hits, 14 strikeouts and just 3 walks.
While Imanaga is off to another strong showing this year with a 3.18 ERA through his first 34 frames, the underlying numbers indicate he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as his rookie campaign.
His strikeout rate is down 5.5% from last year (25.1% to 19.6%) while his walk rate has more than doubled from 4% to 8.7%.
Additionally, his BABIP has dropped from .225 last year to .198 this season despite his average exit velocity jumping from 88.6 to 90.7, which has his FIP, xFIP and SIERA all trending in the opposite direction.
As we talked about last year, Imanaga has a varied pitch mix but has prominently utilized his low-90s 4-seam fastball up in the zone and low-80s splitter down and away against right handed hitters. He has increased usage on his sweeper – mostly as a weapon down and away against lefties – which sits around 80-81.
Shota isn’t going to get a ton of swings and misses or blow hitters away with his stuff but manages to mix locations and speed to get hitters to chase high fastballs above the zone or splitters that bounce in the dirt.
Bucs bats will need to keep their eye level up against Imanaga. Lay off the junk down in the zone and target the high fastballs, which opponents have been slugging .688 against.
If he’s going to stay out of the zone, take walks, work counts and get on base where the team can try to REALLY wreak havoc on Shota.
The Pirates are back home to welcome their division rival, the Chicago Cubs. This will be the first time these two rivals square off this year. The Cubs have been red hot, so the Pirates will have their work cut out for them. But, the Pirates have shown signs of life in the last week, going (3-3) against the Angels and the Dodgers. Let’s get into it!
Last year, the Pirates were 6-7 against the Cubs. However, the teams look a little different this year. The Cubs now boast a scary new hitter in the form of Kyle Tucker, who is batting .289 with 7 HRs already this young season. In fact, their team batting average ranks 3rd among MLB teams and 2nd in on-base percentage. Their offense has been on fire so far.
If there is a silver lining for the Bucs, it would be the Chicago pitching. The Cubs’ pitching staff has the 11th-worst ERA in the majors with 4.24. They also rank 7th in hits allowed and 10th in walks allowed, so there is an avenue for the Pirates to exploit, as the Pirates have the 14th-best team ERA with 3.98.
The Pirates looked somewhat sharp in their last road trip. While 3-3 isn’t outstanding by any stretch of the imagination, going up against the Dodgers and what the time was when the red-hot Angels and getting out with a record of 3-3 is good. What the Bucs need to do this series is get out of their own way. By that, I mean they need to stop making the dumb mistakes that they always seem to make that kill the momentum of the team, like not taking pitches on offense or vice versa, taking too many pitches on offense.
To be successful against these Cubs (which I do think is possible), it is going to come down to game management. I know I’m not the only one harping on Derek Shelton’s managing skills, but there is a lane here to make a statement and nab a series. For instance, you have Carmen Mlodzinski starting on Wednesday, which is wild given what he has shown so far, but I think they could use him and win.
Here is a formula: Mlod goes 3 innings, then they pass it off to Caleb Ferguson for 2 innings, then go from there. Game management will be what wins or loses this series for the Pirates; it’s what got in their way from a sweep of the Angels and a series win over the Dodgers. I think the Pirates can take this series as their offense in the last week has gone from horrendous to slightly watchable, and that, in turn, can nab them a series, but it will take good game management, so time will tell.
Cubs: Pete Crow-Armstrong – As much as he annoys me (which is a lot), you can’t deny that Pete has emerged as a star. In the last 15 days, Pete has been the best hitter in baseball. In 46 at-bats, he has 5 HRs with 14 RBIs and 6 stolen bases. He is also batting .413 and slugging .913. His fielding has been off the charts so far this year as well. With his speed, he will be a threat to the Bucs this series. If there is a silver lining for the Pirates in his game, it’s that he chases pitches and doesn’t walk a lot. You can get him out by just pitching smart to him.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz – Cruz has been on fire lately, but you know that. I still want to talk about it. On this west coast trip, Cruz went 9 for 27, which is a .333 average. With 3 HRs and 5 RBIs in addition to 3 walks and 2 SBs. His barrel and hard hit rate are in the 97th and 99th percentile of current MLB players. The biggest thing about his game improving is his walks. Cruz has been taking his walks a lot more and using them to his advantage to steal and get in scoring position. The big task for him in this series will be lefty pitchers; we know his struggles with them, and even though he has been better against them, it’s still an area of concern for him.
Cubs: Dansby Swanson – Swanson, the Cubs’ big free agent signing going into 2023, has been very cold to start the season. In 116 at-bats this year, he is batting .181 with an OPS of .577. In his last 2 games, he has had 9 at-bats, no hits, and struck out 4 times. His whiff and K rates are all up, and he seems to be struggling across the board to start this season. If his play has a bright spot, it’s that he has been hitting the ball very hard, so, at some point, you do expect his swings to find some grass. But his barrel rate and expected slugging are average, so Swanson’s hope is slim right now.
Pirates: Alexander Canario – Okay, I know this one is a bit of a cop out because he simply doesn’t play, but even when he does, he can’t seem to touch a ball. On the season, he is 2 for 26, which I know is a very small sample size, but with Gorski on the roster now, Canario’s time seems even more limited. His numbers seem like he would be good because he can barrel up balls, but they just seem to find gloves. Does he warrant more time? Maybe, given the matchups this week. Two of the starting pitchers are lefties, so I’d like to see Gorski get one day and Canario get the other, assuming Cutch and Reynolds are in the lineup. Do I think Canario can find it? I honestly don’t know, but time is running out fast for him, so let’s see what he’s got!
Cubs: Javier Assad, Eli Morgan, Justin Steele, Tyson Miller, Ryan Brasier, Drew Gray, Brett Bateman, Ismael Mena, Kohl Franklin, Ben Heller, Brandeon Birdsell
Pirates: Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez, Tim Mayza, Johan Oviedo, Spencer Horwitz, Dauri Moreta, Justin Lawrence, Sean Sullivan, Burch Smith, Brandan Bidois
Notes
The Cubs as a team are killing left-handed pitching, ranking 2nd in team batting average against them, while the Pirates rank 8th worst in batting average against lefties. Something to keep an eye out for as the Bucs will face 2 lefties.
Paul Skenes has been pretty dominant over the Cubs in his very young career. Being 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 4 outings versus the Cubs, so he will look to continue that dominance.
The Pirates just wrapped a 3-3 road swing to the West Coast, and while there’s nothing special about going .500 on a trip, the team might have changed a few philosophies they’ve been living by for this entire management team’s tenure.
Lets Go!
1. Consistent Lineups?
It has become such a running gag at this point that Derek Shelton changes the lineup daily, that it was legitimately shocking when he turned around on this road trip and started using a consistent lineup.
Sure, he changed it facing a lefty. Sure he changed it a bit when Henry Davis caught Paul Skenes, but by in large, he left this lineup intact and by doing so, he may have just finally achieved something this offense has not been able to capture since he got here, consistency.
Check out Andrew McCutchen’s comments from last night, especially the last part where he really talks to the lineup.
First, there’s a reason Cutch is so open to discuss this and it goes back to before this road trip. He made it a point to talk about how hard it was to gel when the lineup changed constantly last week, and yes, he was framing it around his own usage, but this repeatability, this standard starting point, this is what he was asking for.
You’ve listened to him for a long time, you know he rarely if ever discusses big picture stuff like this, at least not in much detail, or without some jokes tossed in.
He was right, and while it shouldn’t save Shelton’s job, it should be to his credit he listened, at least so far.
Reality is, they don’t have enough to beat the Dodgers if they’re firing on all cylinders. Few do. They do have enough though, if they’re playing the best they can and the other team is down for whatever reason.
That’s what was encouraging on this trip. They played the kind of baseball that will net you 2 out of 3 against most teams, and secure 1 of 3 against a juggernaut.
Convincing players to take what the game gives you requires convincing players to trust the next man up, and it stands to reason you need to know who is next in order to have that kind of faith.
Look, it’s early days here for this whole thing. Let’s see how long he sticks with it, and let’s see what he does when certain members start cooling off, but for right now, it’s been a positive step and something this team should be able to feel good about. The offense hasn’t been awful since they did it, that’s step one, now work on bolting some of these parts and pieces back into it and see where it goes.
And before you “educate” me about everything they’re missing, or who’s to blame for what, please understand, I know all that, and when it’s THE story, I’ll talk about it, but I’m not a person who needs to see perfection in order to enjoy or appreciate my teams. Thank god, because I’m 48, and I’ve only seen maybe 2 teams that came close, the two Stanley Cup winning Penguins teams of the early 90’s.
I’ve enjoyed a hell of a lot more sports than those two runs.
2. Hunter Barco is Dealing
Hunter has pitched 20.2 innings this year for Altoona.
He’s given up not a single run. He’s struck out 30, and his WHIP is 0.63.
Lights out might not do it justice.
So of course I’ve read a lot of promote him to Indy calls, often paired with calling Bubba Chandler up to the Bigs.
Honestly, I can’t think of too many good reasons to keep him in Altoona, but I will say, it’s very hard to sketch out what the rest of Barco’s season could look like.
He was drafted in 2022, in the 2nd round and the only reason he was there, he was recovering from UCL surgery.
Because of that, he was only able to go 18.1 innings in his first season with Pittsburgh back in 2023. Then in 2024 he managed to reach 66 innings.
A healthy stretch and this year, it’s safe to say the surgery is behind him, now it’s about stretching out to handle a workload.
Based on what we know, you can expect Hunter to top out in 2025 around 100 innings, maybe 120 if they really want to push him.
I say all this because no matter how you frame it, no matter when they promote him to AAA, there isn’t much chance he makes it to the majors in 2025, and while he’s unreal early on here and certainly not being challenged at the AA level, there is a cap on what he can get accomplished this year.
His 2025 story will be a minor league story. An important story, a reason to continue to think this team has enough internal pitching here and coming to be pretty damn good for years to come, but a minor league stopping point is all but decided.
3. How this Rotation Could Evolve Through 2025
The first thing I’m going to do here is the dumbest thing anyone talking baseball can do, I’m going to assume health.
Meaning, I’m going to assume guys getting healthy, get there, and guys pitching now stay that way.
Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Carmen Mlodzinski, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter are a decent starting 5, but the Pirates are in position to strengthen this rotation and today I want to try to sketch out how that could happen.
Let’s take things in the order I expect them, yet another dumb thing to do, but here goes.
Bubba Chandler is looking ready, and I truly believe his call could come any day now. They have him on schedule to be a direct swap with Carmen Mlodzinski and I think that’s what we’ll see play out.
So the rotation, when that happens will be Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter.
Looks better already doesn’t it?
Now, Jared Jones will likely be starting to throw again very soon, and as it comes to the starters returning from injury, he’ll be first up if everything goes well.
There would be almost no doubt he’d replace Bailey Falter in the rotation, if only because he’d be the low man on the totem pole, but we’ve also only seen one side of Andrew Heaney, and he does have bullpen experience. If he’s going like he is right now, this isn’t a debate, if he regresses and Bailey gets stronger as he did last year, he could win out.
That gives you Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and Andrew Heaney.
Yeah.
From there, you have Harrington who you hope continues to improve in AAA, and Johan Oviedo who suffered a setback in his rehab but still should make it back before the end of the season.
There’s a chance that Andrew Heaney would be dangled at the deadline to make room for one of those, and even if they don’t look ready, they still have Bailey Falter to fall back on. In fact, I almost see no way he isn’t traded at the deadline unless he becomes a valuable part of the pen.
But here goes anyway, Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and Johan Oviedo.
No lefties in this setup, but all 5 are big arms.
That’s this year. This offseason it gets interesting again. Harrington and Barco, Solometo, Sullivan, they might afford you making a baseball trade with a guy like Oviedo, or even Mitch Keller.
Yeah yeah, you don’t want this management team making these deals, keep your pants on, just one issue at a time here.
Still, it’s on a track where this could be an absolute shut down unit, and in rather short order.
4. Konnor Griffin is Off to a Great Start
It’s too early for me to tell you this draft choice will rewrite Pirates history, it’s too early for me to even tell you he’ll be a star, but he’s certainly doing everything he can in Bradenton to show you himself.
He’s hitting .270 with an OPS of .859, so his surface numbers are certainly good enough. He’s done this while learning SS, handling it well mind you and dominating CF when they play him out there. This isn’t positional flexibility for the sake of it, it’s about a superior athlete being capable of just about anything playing the two hardest positions not named catcher or pitcher.
In other words, when the time comes for a call up, because of his ability to play those two, chances are he’ll be able to play as many as 6 different spots in the infield and outfield. Greasing the skids.
The most exciting number for Konnor if you ask me, his in zone whiff percentage which sits at 16%. Folks, that’s really good. Especially for a kid facing pitching he’s never seen before. This means, if you throw a strike, and he swings, he is rarely going to miss it. The WHOLE zone.
He’s going to move in this system if he keeps this up. At 19 years old, they’ll always be promoting him to a level he’s probably young for, but I fully expect them to challenge him and if he keeps hitting like this, it’s not insane to see this being a 2 level per year jump scenario for him.
He’s got speed, power, defense, contact, and he uses all of them every chance he gets.
For instance, he’s getting on base at a .345 clip, and he already has 11 stolen bases. And he’ll go whenever, from first, from second, hell I even saw him threaten to go from third in one game drawing a throw that almost got past the 3B.
You can’t walk him or it might as well be a double. You can’t just throw strikes cause he won’t miss much and he can and will do damage if you do. You can’t get him to chase, cause he simply doesn’t do it much, in other words, he’s a problem.
All the makings of one of those kids that a smart organization gets to AAA and inks to a 10 year deal.
Yeah, he’s far away, and young, but he’s also different, and it feels different when he comes up. The latest comp I heard from a friend at Baseball America, a right handed Corbin Carroll.
Think on that for a minute.
5. Cubs and Padres Round Out Huge Test for The Pirates
The Pirates are 6 games back in the division, last in the NL Central and own the second worst record in the NL. The Cubs lead the NL Central, but their 17 wins is tied with the Padres who right this second are 3rd in the NL West.
Both of these teams have better offenses. Both of them have some pitching that can take over a game, but both are beatable.
The Pirates managed to go 3-3 on their West Coast trip and they need to do even better in these two series at home this week.
6 games is already a lot, but a sweep of the Cubs would muddy this entire division, and taking a series from the Padres, well, it would create some separation in that hotly contested division too.
There comes a point where you’ve dug too big a hole, and the Pirates have their heels right on that edge. There’s time, and we discussed a little in this piece today how this team could improve as the season plays out, but there’s also a point of no return. If you’re 10 games back in the first week of May, well, let’s just say unless you have the type of team you see reeling off 10-12 in a row, you’re probably in trouble.
This is a team that probably has to aim a bit lower like 7 out of 10 and making up ground that way takes a lot longer, so these series really carry more weight than they should.
The Cubs team OPS is .784 second only to the Yankees, and their team ERA is 20th at 4.24. They’ve got the Pirates bested offensively by a mile, but the Pirates have them on the mound, so what separates these clubs in the standings, it might not hold up in head to head.
No need for predictions, and I make no illusions as to the Pirates having an advantage, but they should be able to hang with them, and if they do, the entire NL Central is going to look like a mess.
Here I am rooting for a sloppy looking division come next 5 Thoughts.
4-27-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
With an unexpected chance at a series win over the host Dodgers, the Bucs will have to go through former Pirate, Tyler Glasnow.
A former top prospect in Pittsburgh, Glasnow had his former team’s number the two times facing them last year, pitching a combined 13 innings with 3 runs off 8 hits, 3 walks and 13 strikeouts on June 4 and August 11.
Walks have been an issue for Glasnow in his career (9.2%) but he has maintained a strong K rate as his 34.1% strikeout percentage since 2019 ranks behind only Jacob deGrom among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched in that span.
Glasnow is in his second season with the Dodgers, looking to build off his first All Star nod last year when he reached career-highs in starts (22), innings (134) and strikeouts (168) but an elbow strain ended his season following the final game against the Bucs.
While he left his most recent outing in the 5th inning with an apparent ankle injury, he reportedly is at full health heading into today’s matchup, entering the day with a 3.71 ERA over 17 innings pitched this season with 23 strikeouts to 10 walks.
The 6’8 righty has elite extension, which allows his velocity to play up even more against opposing batters as he mixes speed and location to get whiffs.
Glasnow works a four pitch mix including a mid-90s 4-seamer/sinker, low-80s curve and high-80s slider and all of them have been weapons for the 31-year old righty.
Key to win today will be trying to stay in the zone, avoid chasing junk down and giving away strikes. Additionally, we’ll need to lean on the lefties today. Against Glasnow, righties are batting .036 in 34 plate appearances with 16 strikeouts while lefties have a .273/.368/.455 slash line over 38 plate appearances.
Look to attack hanging sliders (.308 xBA and 847 xSLG ) and waste as many pitches as possible each at-bat to get him out of the game and get back into the bullpen.
All season long, it’s been very hard to focus on much about this Pirates team beyond what they’re missing. How little they did to support what most of us felt was a very strong pitching staff, it’s all any of us can discuss, see, or deal with.
I’m not here to tell you it’s irrelevant, or life wouldn’t be easier, or better if they did what we wanted.
But…
I started thinking as I was watching the Pirates and Paul Skenes beat the Yankees and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last night in Los Angeles, man, even with two other decent bats, this lineup isn’t going to stack up.
Again, I’m not saying they shouldn’t get better, or bring in something. That’s not what this piece is, I’m just saying, if they pitch like this, and the hitters they do have hit like this, they’re closer than we as a fan base seem to think.
It may not happen this year regardless. To be in a position to bring in something that helps this year, they need to be within striking distance and frankly, that’s going to take weeks and months of playing games that look a lot like the 3-0 victory they put together last night.
It’s a hard way to win.
The more they add to the mix, either through returning guys from the IL, or kids becoming ballplayers instead of projects, the how really doesn’t matter, the better they get as it comes to chances to win games just like this, and survive games where the pitching is mere human.
Paul pitches once every 5 days, so it’s not a plan to just win a low scoring battle every time he pitches, but the pitching staff is solid, and will get more solid if the main principals stay and get healthy respectively.
The hitting, well, they’ve kinda gotten to the point where they have a decent 1-5 they can field.
Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Joey Bart, Andrew McCutchen and Enmanuel Valdez.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting 9th, but he clearly has fit into this group of players contributing almost nightly.
That’s 6.
After that, you have your semi consistent like Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Adam Frazier.
Look, it’s not ever going to look like it stacks up with the Dodgers head to head. Hell, it probably doesn’t stack up against the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, Giants, Padres, or Diamondbacks either.
Paul and this pitching staff, coupled with a competent offensive attack might just be enough most nights.
The point is, maybe it’s not as bleak as we’ve been crowing about all offseason and season.
I still think a better GM has them in a better spot. And a better coach does more with what they’ve been given. A better owner makes more money, and spends more too.
All that being true and accepted, this team entered this season as a team that would do well if they snuck in to a wild card, and I mean even if they added the “big bat” we all said they need. Be honest with yourself, that one big bat would make it easier, not inevitable.
It’s not inevitable that this plan can’t work either, even if it’s ultimately handed to new bosses next year. This pitching can still be enough to create opportunity, and this offense just needs to be enough to make it hold up.
It ain’t a championship roster, but it might be one that overachieves based on one side of the team being hard to beat.
The very last thing I’m telling you here is to be patient. You’ve all heard that enough and you all feel how you feel.
Look, I don’t personally think they have enough. But if they do, this is the path, and last night’s game needs to play out an awful lot in 2025.
I’ll finish with this, you don’t put together a staff like this and lose long stretches of games typically. You don’t wait for perfect when you know you’ll never see it, and finally, while they’re lacking offensive fire power to hang with like 3/4 of the National League, that’s about how much of the National League that can’t hang with their pitching.
This season isn’t over, and this team isn’t the team they’ll have as it plays out. Last night reminded me, Paul Skenes, and this staff, if there is an opportunity here, it’ that they’re able to present the great equalizer into most matchups, pitching.
4-26-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Pirates effectively deconstructed Yoshi Yamamoto last night, taking four walks and spraying hits all around the field. Can they do the same to his home country counterpart, Roki Sasaki?
The 23-year old international wunderkind and pre-season Rookie of the Year favorite has had a mixed start to his MLB career – including an emotional viral moment captured from the dugout in his second MLB game.
After spending the last four years pitching in Japan where he was among the most dominant pitchers in the league (2.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 394.2 cumulative innings pitched), Sasaki has looked less dominant in the US, holding a 3.20 ERA through his first 19.2 frames but with a 1.48 WHIP as he’s struggled to keep opposing hitters off the bases.
He has walked as many batters as he’s struck out (16) and all of his FIP, xFIP and SIERA indicate that he’s gotten extremely lucky over these first four outings.
Sasaki doesn’t have the varied pitch mix of Yamamoto but relies on a high-90s 4-seam fastball that approaches triple digits, a mid-80s diving splitter/dragon forkball and a low-80s cutting slider. He appears best able to locate the 4-seam, running in on left handed hitters, while dropping down with the splitter and slider.
His splitter has a ridiculously low spin rate, averaging just over 500 RPM and generating a 45.7% whiff rate while his slider hasn’t yet been hit and has opponents whiffing at a 44.4% clip.
Best chance for the Bucs will be to focus on the elevated fastballs and spit on everything else. His .330 xBA and .612 xSLG against the 4-seam are both well above the actual marks and Sasaki offers the pitch 53% of the time.
If Pirates hitters can pick up the spin – or lack thereof in the case of the splitter – early enough, they should be able to key in on Sasaki’s pitches and get to him the same way they got to Yoshi yesterday.
4-25-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Heading into the Dodgers series with slightly less momentum but still feeling good following a series victory in Anaheim, the Pirates will face off against one of the hottest pitchers in MLB, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Coming off a World Series-winning rookie season where Yamamoto went 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA over 90 innings pitched due to injuries, Yoshi is looking to take the next step with his career in the States.
Among qualified pitchers this season, Yamamoto ranks 2nd in ERA (0.93), 4th in K% (35.2%), 10th in WHIP (0.86) and 11th in BAA (.178).
He also has the 6th best whiff rate (33.2%) and 3rd best ground-ball rate (63.5%) so it’s definitely going to be a challenge for the Buccos tonight.
Yamamoto has 7 distinct pitches that he will offer up against hitters but – at least early on this season – has mostly leaned on his mid-90s 4-seam fastball, high-70s curve and a low-90s splitter that is definitely going to be a problem.
As can be expected with a ground-ball pitcher – even one who gets excellent strikeout numbers – Yamamoto works low in the zone with all of his pitches and has been more effective against lefties (.194 wOBA) than righties (.284 wOBA) with all three of his earned runs coming from right handed hitters.
It’s going to be a grind of a game – and series honestly – as the Dodgers are obviously a dangerous opponent but team will want to work counts and try to get to the bullpen sooner than later. Dodgers relievers rank 18th in MLB with a 4.08 ERA this season so chances against them are much better than with Yoshi.
Pittsburgh will take the California Road Show 30 odd miles North up I-5 to Dodger Stadium for a three game set beginning today. Never an easy task to take on the reigning World Champs, but from a fan perspective it is enjoyable to watch that collection of talent in Dodger blue.
Speaking from a personal standpoint, being located on the West Coast, I watch the Dodgers (and the NL West as a whole) a lot. Their stadium atmosphere is generally always buzzing and the thing that makes them a difficult opponent also makes for great viewing. At any given moment they can hang big, crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Before we get to the offense, the perspective pitching matchup in game 1 must get some love. Talk about a clash of the Titans! Yamamoto & Skenes are two of the premier talents in the world when it comes to starting pitching and any time they toe the rubber opposite one another it makes for appointment viewing.
Game 2’s pitching matchup will offer fans the opportunity to see prized youngster Roki Sasaki square off with Mitch Keller. As you can see below both have had trouble with issuing free passes and consistently limiting traffic on the bases. Pirate fans are very familiar with Keller, but Sasaki has a rather limited sample size to his credit. The split finger he throws is a truly devastating pitch. His arsenal is handicapped by his inability to command it thus far, but the raw material he boasts is incredibly potent.
Old Friend Tyler Glasnow will face off with Bailey Falter on 4/27. Glasnow has some of the best K stuff around and always proves a tough task for hitters. Bailey Falter’s surface stats look rough, but the peripheral numbers paint a much better picture of his true skill. A 3.51 xERA & 4.20 SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) are indicative of a hurler who has more in the tank than what the back of the baseball card numbers will lead one to believe. This matchup might be very sneakily fun!
Over the last 2 weeks of games the LA offense has been uncharacteristically “poor.” In this timeframe their team wOBA & wRC+ sit at .306 & 94 respectively. Pittsburgh’s marks over this span are remarkably similar at .311 & 93. Tommy Edman, Will Smith (who is labeled at DTD as of writing), & Freddie Freeman (who appears to be heating up) have carried the offensive burden since 4/10, but there is no room for error against any member of this Dodger club. The possibility for this Dodger team to go nuclear is there every single game. But right now, I think Pittsburgh has a chance to hang with them given how both have been playing of late.
Pirates: Enmanuel Valdez – Valdez can swing it! He has been hitting the ball hard of late posting all well above average exit velocity (92.4), MLB average max exit velocity (108.2), and MLB average 90th percentile exit velocity (104.8), & a strong xDamage (.472). Valdez has had some stints of being a successful bench/utility man in Boston in 2023-24, but he is playing much more like a starting caliber bat at the moment. Hopefully he can keep it rolling and give the Bucs lineup a little more punch on a consistent basis.
Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Yamamoto has been perhaps the best starting pitcher on planet Earth over the last 2 weeks. The Pirates will greet him fresh off of an absolute masterpiece at Texas. In that gem he limited the Rangers to 5 hits over 7 frames while piling up 10 Ks/0 walks and 20 whiffs. Yamo features two “elite” offerings, the most valuable splitter in baseball & one of the most valuable four-seam fastballs in the game. But the entire arsenal is hard to hit. Of his 7 categorized pitches, 5 of them garner over 30% whiff rates. His four-seam, while valuable, can be exploited if hitters can recognize and jump on it. Batters have been hitting it hard (95 mph EV against). But the great difficulty here is that he tunnels it with his world-class split finger exceptionally well & often makes even the best hitters look foolish.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – There is no doubting the defensive value Hayes brings. He consistently brings 80 grade defense. This will always help to buttress his profile and usually is enough to provide a positive return to the team effort. It must be acknowledged that the offense has been quite dreadful of late.
Hayes does flash impressive batted ball data somewhat regularly (9.61 average EV/105 90th percentile, 48.3 hard hit rate). However with below par quality of contact (.359 xDamage) he just fails to turn it in to production too often. He is capable of bouts of production though & when he does it makes a big difference for the Pirates.
Dodgers: Michael Conforto – Andre 3,000 famously once asked “What’s cooler than being cool?” And as we well know, it was met with the refrain “Ice cold!” Well, I submit to you that question could currently be answered with “Michael Conforto!”
Conforto has been among the most cold hitters in the league recently. While the hits aren’t coming, he has at least been grinding out walks and posting a solid .341 OBP. Pirates righties need to attack Conforto and not allow him to wait them out to get on base. His last 11 games he is slashing .182/.341/.182 with a .523 OPS. Put the pressure on him and try not to issue any free passes!
Pirates: Nick Gonzales, Jared Jones, Endy Rodriguez, Tim Mayza, Colin Holderman, Johan Oviedo, Spencer Horwitz, Dauri Moreta
Dodgers: Blake Treinen, Blake Snell, Will Smith (DTD), Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Michael Kopech, Edgardo Henriquez
Notes:
Since returning from the birth of his first child, Shohei Ohtani has been on a 1/14 skid. Kids, man.
The LA bullpen has been tasked with 106 IP this season, the most in baseball. Add on to this that one of their key relief arms, Blake Treinen, is out with injury there is opportunity here to apply pressure by getting to their banged up pen for the Bucs.
4-24-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
Following a stellar start by Andrew Heaney, the Pirates are poised to get not only their first sweep of the season but their first time winning 3 games straight. Opposing them to halt that momentum, old friend in journeyman lefty, Tyler Anderson, who pitched for Pittsburgh in 2021.
Entering the final season of his 3 year, $39 million contact signed with the Angels, Anderson is off to a strong start, hoisting a 2.04 ERA over 21.2 innings but underlying metrics indicate that he’s been lucky thus far.
Among pitchers with 20+ innings, only fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga has a larger difference between his ERA and FIP, and his xFIP is a full 3 runs higher than his ERA, suggesting that a regression to the mean is likely ahead for the veteran lefty.
Two big reasons for this stems from both his opponent BABIP of .157 (the 2nd lowest behind just Rangers pitcher Tyler Mahle’s .156) and his 96% strand rate (behind only Chad Patrick of the Brewers – 96.6%).
His “stuff” is alright but certainly not good enough to maintain this level of production. He utilizes mostly three pitches: a high-80s 4-seamer, high-80s changeup and a mid-80s cutter – adding in occasional slider, sinkers and curve but primarily working off the main three pitches, with the changeup being his best weapon.
Anderson’s ability to locate the changeup and generate whiffs on the pitch at a 41.4% clip have made it his primary offering when he needs to miss a bat. Each of the changeup and two fastball pitches have sub-.150 oBA and low exit velocity marks thus far this season.
Unlike the previous two Angels arms faced, Anderson doesn’t get a ton of ground-balls with his 24.5% rate ranking so the hits that fall in might be flares into shallow center field or balls flicked the opposite way.
Getting ahead of this now: Anderson has reverse splits on the season, mowing down righties and getting lit up by lefties.
This is a small-ish sample size (at least compared to his career numbers which are mostly more favorable for right handed hitters) and I would be surprised if Shelton plays into it as he’ll almost certainly push a right-heavy lineup contrasting the previous two days.
Regardless of whether they are lefty or righty, Bucs batters will want to stay on the fastballs up and try to lay off the changeups low in the zone. The movement on the off-speed stuff has been effective but the fastballs are much more manageable.
Chance for a rare series sweep on the line to build momentum before the long trip to Chavez Ravine tomorrow.
4-23-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
As the Pirates look to build off their offensive peak in last night’s game, they will face off against the 6-7 right-handed Jack Kochanowicz, who enters with a 1-2 record and 6.20 ERA over 20.1 innings pitched.
Kochanowicz has strong similarities to yesterday’s starter, Jose Soriano, in that they both throw gas (upper-90s) and rely on a heavy dose of sinkers to get ground-balls – but Jack’s inability to strikeout batters is among the worst in MLB.
Among pitchers with 20+ innings this season, Kochanowicz has the 7th worst K/BB rate and the 4th lowest K%.
He has been bit by some bad luck as his 63% strand rate is on the lower side but when opposing hitters put the ball in play ~80% of the time, balls are bound to fall in and score runs.
Looking at the arsenal, Kochanowicz features a 4-seam and sinker – which comprise 76% of his total pitches – with a high-80s slider and an infrequently used, mid-80s sweeper. But the main ones to look for, like with Soriano, is the fastballs.
Location has been an issue with Jack as he works outside of the zone often and gets hitters to chase (82%) but isn’t able to get whiffs on those swings (10%) to put away hitters.
His 4-seam has been the most effective pitch with opponents batting just .182 against the offering compared to .292 on the sinker and .429 versus the slider.
Hitters will want to attack him early in counts and early in the game. Kochanowicz has a 9.00 ERA first time through lineups this season (compared to 0.93 second time through) while opponents are batting .306 in 0-1 counts and .375 in 0–2 counts.
Look for the elevated sinker or hanging slider and be aggressive at the plate. The Bucs got to Soriano early yesterday to take advantage of a struggling bullpen. If they can repeat that today, they have a chance for a series victory.
Steel City Pirates 