Pirates Trade All Star Second Baseman Adam Frazier to San Diego

7-25-21 – By Gary Morgan

This has been building for quite some time. Not this deal in particular, but the fact a deal would likely get done itself sending Adam Frazier out of Pittsburgh.

Today the Pirates finalized a deal with San Diego for two prospects and a borderline major league player.

Tucapita Marcano is the MLB-ish player, he’s a second baseman and outfielder who has just touched the big leagues this season. He is the Padres 5th ranked prospect on their site but Fangraphs lists him as number 10. His numbers have been largely middling in his minor league career. The left handed hitter only has 150 at bats above Single A so to think he jumps right to the Big club might be questionable.

He’s seen to have a good eye and all of his scouting reports sound like you’re describing Adam Frazier to be honest, thing is, even if he turns out to be close to that, it would be like picking up Adam Frazier about five years ago. If you’re into this stuff Fangraphs also lists him as a 40+ FV prospect.

Next up is outfielder Jack Suwinski is a left handed AA outfielder with an emerging power tool. Nothing really stands out in his tool set to me. He could wind up being a decent ball player and lord knows the team needs outfield depth but in a pretty deep system he’s not in their top 50. There’s just not much to say here, again he has all of 260+ at bats above Single A. On the surface though, this isn’t a Smith-Njigba type that is going to look like a steal. As I dig in on the advanced stats, yeah, don’t like what I see. Suwinski also doesn’t have an FV listing on Fangraphs, typically meaning it’s south of 25+, aka, not really on the radar. If you really want a positive it might be his BABIP

The Pirates also got a Single A back end of the bullpen right hander named Michell Miliano, Fangraphs has him at 35+ FV and as a reliever he could probably move if he does reasonably well through the system. Ranked as the Padres number 45 prospect, it’s hard to see him as much more than a lottery ticket. His curve ball and fast ball are ranked above average but control is lacking a bit which sounds like a ton of guys who throw a fastball and curve.

The Pirates also sent 1.4 million dollars to help the Padres avoid going over the Luxury tax threshold and to get a better prospect return, which blows my mind because this isn’t a terrific return.

Goodbye, Good Luck, and Thanks for What You Did Here Adam.

Adam was drafted in the 6th round back in 2013 and since 2016 has been a consistent presence for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The two time Gold Glove finalist at second base was having a career season, nearly 50 points higher than his best previous result and with one more year of arbitration he was likely to be moved this year.

Making his first All Start appearance this season Adam will join a Padres team that will use his versatility to make their lineup stronger as they make a push for the playoffs.

For the Pirates, the decision really needed to be made this season. Either extend him or move him, but as I’ve described to you before, Adam was not likely to take just a couple years, and at his age the Pirates were unlikely to give him enough length.

He will be missed, and the Pirates don’t really have a great solution for playing second base. They could perhaps use Phillip Evans, Rodolfo Castro, maybe it’s finally time to take the water wings off Cole Tucker. Dee Strange-Gordon could be the automatic call up as well.

Let’s be honest though, nobody is going to do what Frazier has this year, and nobody is going to fill his shoes in the field either.

He will be missed.

We’re going to hear people say he will never hit like this again in a season, or he never did, but all that matters in the moment is he currently is having a sensational season and I hope he has all the success he deserves.

My Take

In short, I’m underwhelmed.

Tossing in cash was probably to pry away Marcano. He’s a good prospect, but not one I would have coveted as much as it seems Ben Cherington has. This had all the markings of unfinished business from the Joe Musgrove deal.

Just conjecture on my part but it smells a lot like they really wanted this guy in that deal and this time there wasn’t going to be a deal without him. Ken Rosenthal reported that during the Musgrove negotiations the Padres were unwilling to discuss Marcano, so this would seem to back up my assertion.

The other two, meh. The young reliever Michell Miliano probably has the best shot of the two to contribute but my biggest concern is every one that was returned in this deal will require Rule 5 protection, something I already thought the team would struggle with as we move forward into the off season.

As an analyst, this doesn’t do anything for me. At this point in the rebuild, I’d rather return one 45+ FV type or one nailed on MLB top 100 player than three like this. It’s time to start prioritizing quality over quantity.

As a fan, underwhelmed is a nice way to say it. I’d prefer taking him to the end of the season than pull the trigger on this deal. Again, my belief that I’d rather have one good prospect than the return they procured makes me feel I could have waited on this.

It has been known that Adam was going to be moved for quite some time, but if this was the return for him, I shudder to think of the return for Tyler Anderson. Sometimes you gotta take the sage advice of Mr. Kenny Rogers and know when to hold ’em.

Bottom line, this trade goes down in history as Marcano does. If he makes it and turns into the piece Ben and company seem to think he will, its a win. If for no other reason than they’ve exchanged 1 year of control for 5 years. If he doesn’t, or winds up being an Erik Gonzalez type, its not a good deal.

Time always tells, but on the surface again, this isn’t this front office’s best work. Closer to the Bell deal than Taillon or Joe.

Pirates Wallop Giants 10-2, Wil Crowe Has His Best Start to Date

7-25-21 – By Gary Morgan

The Giants have been a huge surprise this season but the Bucs have played them tough this year. I feel like a broken record as I brought this up on Locked on Pirates with Ethan Smith and Jim Stamm and I spent a whole segment on my show the Fan Forum on DK Pittsburgh Sports Podcasting Network, bad teams play better against good teams or at least look more professional.

It’s such a weird baseball thing, and it obviously doesn’t lead to a great record, but it does mean you can’t just look at the schedule and assume a team like the Pirates is going to drop 3 straight to the Giants after sweeping the helpless Diamondbacks.

In fact, on paper, it’s hard to understand why the Giants are better than the Diamondbacks.

Speaking of surprises maybe we should start with Gregory Polanco getting the call to hit cleanup last night. Surely a mistake according to many of you before the first pitch. Hey, I’m not pointing fingers, it struck me as less than ideal too. Fortunately it made sense to Greg, all he did was drive in 3 runs and crank a homerun.

I mean we can go all day, how about seeing a matchup of Wil Crowe going up against Kevin Gausman who has just been crazy good this season? Crowe looked in command, Gausman couldn’t throw strikes and fought through trouble most of his outing.

Wil Crowe for the first time all season, had and used all five of his pitches. We’ve seen him dogfight through when he had 3 of them but it was really good for the Pirates and Wil to have all his weapons at his disposal. 5.1 innings isn’t as long as you’d like to see but the Pirates are now getting pretty vocal about not wanting to see some of these guys go past 90 pitches. We can argue about this being right or wrong (you all know I have) but it is the reality of how they want to handle the staff, at least this season.

Meanwhile, the Pirates rocked Gausman over 4.1 innings for 6 earned runs.

Loading the bases in the first inning for Polanco who picked up his first RBI of the night with a sac fly to deep left. Sure a hit would be nice, but you’ve watched enough this season to know getting a run in that situation for the Pirates isn’t a given. In fact that one run was all they’d get. They let Gausman off the hook a couple times in this one believe it or not.

In the third though, they broke through.

Gamel drove in Polanco who himself had just driven in his second.

In the fifth, well, Greg

Then Newman with one of his 4 hits tonight. (not a typo)

Good defense was a theme all night too, this wasn’t just an offensive show.

Then they went about the business of making this one ugly, Michael Perez cracked his first ever triple, which would have been a homerun in all but 2 ball parks.

Just a well played and feel good ball game in Oracle Park last night for the visitors.

Pirates try yet again for their first sweep today at 4:05 as JT Brubaker looks to get back on track against Alex Wood.

News & Notes

  • Kevin Newman’s average is still nowhere near what you’d like to see, but over the past 3 weeks he’s raised it from .201 to .216. This late into a season that’s quite a lot of movement. His glove has been terrific this season, and playing defense like that his bat doesn’t need to lead the team. He’s on a nice path right now with the bat and if it continues I think we could look back on this year feeling pretty good about Newman.
  • Gregory Polanco has been a different player since returning from the IL. He’s seeing the ball well, being patient and more than anything, making hard contact. No, I still don’t think it’s enough to have someone trade for him. Also, his 11 homeruns are second on the team behind Reynolds even with all his missed time.
  • Before the game, the Pirates announced that Kyle Crick cleared waivers (AKA, nobody else wanted him either) and they decided to outright release him rather than to AAA. There must be more to this story, and it must not be a well kept secret in the league. Look for something to come out on this.
  • I know I already referenced Greg, but if you listened to his post game interview, man, what a shame he’s never put it all together. He’s a great teammate, and truly a wonderful guy. You can talk to him about an 0-5 night and find yourself smiling. We all rightly have expected more than he’s given in his career, but I hope as fans we can at least realize he’s not stupid, he’s not lazy, in fact, he’s simply a tremendous human. None of that means they shouldn’t move on, but it does mean don’t misplace your anger.

Pirates Trade Deadline – Where Things Stand

7-24-21 – By Gary Morgan

Awhile back I wrote about what we could realistically expect at the deadline, and to summarize I predicted much fewer deals than many were expecting. 2 or 3 specifically, and today I’m going to update the scene with what we’ve heard.

Let’s dig right in because we’re coming to the end of this one way or another.

Adam Frazier

I’d still put Adam in the likely category, so long as they get the right package. That’s where we’ll begin our evaluation. I’m hearing the Pirates feel zero pressure to get a deal done at the deadline and Jason Mackey of the Post Gazette recently reported the same. Now, I’m a blogger and yes I have sources, but I still feel better having things backed up by a pro.

That being said, the Seattle Mariners are probably leading the charge of suitors. As I understand it they haven’t reached the threshold Cherington is looking for, but this is more than just curiosity or simply asking about a player. Seattle has the pieces to make this happen and without crippling their system but there is a feeling that the ask still might be a bit high.

For those of you who want to see Adam stick around this is not a bad thing. If they move him you can be sure they will get what they want, if they don’t, he’ll stay put. Well, at least for the rest of this season.

Other contenders are the Giants who classically never ‘overpay’ if you will, making them less likely in my eyes. The White Sox would love him, but they just don’t have the capital, at least not capital they’re willing to move.

I’d add all this up and say 70% he goes to Seattle primarily, or someone else, 30% he stays through the end of the season. I’d guess about an extension but I’ve spent so much time being wrong about Adam I’ll just let you think what you like. But I will say this isn’t much different from the Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove moves.

One thing important to remember is that this doesn’t have to be a case of Cherington asking too much as much as feeling if it isn’t a certain amount they might do better to just wait.

We’ve seen little evidence of this approach not hurting the value of a future move, but who knows, maybe the Bucs could wind up extending him. That’s nothing more than conjecture on my part, everything I’m hearing still speaks to an intention to move him.

Richard Rodriguez

This one is simple, there is nothing credible out there. Now, that doesn’t mean he won’t be moved, it simply means there really hasn’t been a ton of chatter yet. This is in the greater scheme of things on the smaller spectrum of deals and those aren’t going to get as much coverage most of the time.

The best anyone can really do is tell you places he could fit, and while I could list like 8-10 of those for you, suffice to say this isn’t as narrow as looking for a team in need of a closer, in fact I doubt many teams would even see him as such.

Funny thing is, as good as he’s been, I don’t get the impression many of you are all that concerned about his possible departure anyhow.

Wait and see.

Tyler Anderson

OK so this should be the easiest deal. It might be harder to find a team that doesn’t want a quality lefty starter who is owed next to nothing.

New on the scene are the Phillies who hope to add some pitching and not break the bank. This is a good fit because the other left handed option they’re looking into is Cole Hamels who hasn’t pitched, let alone effectively in quite some time.

I singled out a team, but he could easily wind up just about anywhere.

Little chance he doesn’t get moved, he’s just been too consistent and far too affordable to not find a new home.

Expect this one late as I believe there will be some competition for his services. Could get a sneaky good return too. Rentals are rarely going to be a haul, but don’t overlook the power of need and scarcity.

Chris Stratton

Impressive.

And I know you don’t all see it. It’s not like he’s always perfect or an automatic 8th inning guy, but for what he does, specifically, gives you quality innings and not jut mop up, he is one of the very best.

There was a ton of concern on my part and I’m quite sure some potential trade partners too, that when the sticky stuff rules came to be, he might show some signs that he was using his fair share.

He has maintained his spin and continued to perform. I think Chris could be an underrated target this year. He has given the Pirates valuable innings, and with the uncertain territory a team like the Dodgers have he could help them survive less than ideal conditions and still be useful if they get healthy, err, um, not guilty?

Hey, I’m just guessing at that, but innings are very valuable as everyone contends with post COVID pitching.

Anything Else?

Not really. There are of course other players the Pirates would be willing to move, but nothing I see as very likely. If you really want someone else, Chad Kuhl could be interesting. He’s shown something in his last few starts but I still don’t believe a true top end contender will want to give chance there chance at a post season birth on his help.

I could see a team that’s reaching like Philly or Atlanta. They both could find his control next season as attractive and treat it as a good deal whether it helps this year or next, god forbid both.

And no, again, not Bryan Reynolds. Move on.

More to come.

The Giants Out-Pirated The Pirates

7-23-21 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement)

Prior to the start of the season not many could have predicted that the San Francisco Giants would be a top the NL West beyond the All-Star Break; especially with the defending World Series Championship Dodgers and the young and exciting Slam Diego Padres to compete with. Yet, here we are.

Meanwhile, the rebuilding Pirates find themselves in the much anticipated cellar of the struggling NL Central, having just come off a series sweep at the hands of the worst team in all of Major League Baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

So, of course the Pirates would come away with a 6 to 4 victory in the first of three at the majestic Oracle Park. However, it was even more surprising that the win was pretty much sealed by three walks and a botched fielding attempt on a soft grounder, with a little heads up hustle from Adam Frazier mixed in.

Managing only 4 hits on the night, the Pirates didn’t really deserve the win per se; nevertheless, in a season like this, I will enjoy every win they can get.

News and Notes

  • #ExtendReynolds. With his horrendous 2020 erased from everyone’s memory, including his own, Bryan Reynolds has gone beyond returning to this 2019 ROY Campaign form. He’s added power, displayed increased patience at the plate and improved upon his already solid defense; making him the complete player that any teams would be happy to build around, and for now the Pirates are the one with the chance. And to be honest, I would be just plain foolish to let a guy go that not only hits for average, but also hits home runs like this.

  • Chad Kuhl was solid though the first five frames; and truthfully I thought his day was done at that point, as Pirates pitchers don’t often find themselves working their way into the sixth. For Kuhl it may have been the best outcome to be on the receiving end of Shelton’s quick hook for once. In the end he went back out there, gave up a two-run bomb and finished the day with no as clean on a line. 5.1 IP, 8 K, 1 BB, and 3 ER on 6 H (2 HR), so still not terrible.
  • God I wish Kevin Newman could hit. If even just a little bit better than he does now. Picture a player than that hits .250 to .275-if I am being generous-that provides you with 8 DRS and 8 OAA, which is good enough for fifth best for his position in all of MLB.
  • “The Renegade” David Bednar, whose younger brother Will was introduced to Giants fans before the game, has put together a pretty impressive audition for future, or maybe even current, closer for the Pirates; allowing only one run in his last 15 appearances, while striking out 14.
  • Gregory Polanco tripled in second to bring in Pittsburgh’s first run on the day and stole his 11th base (11 for 11 on the season) later on in the game. Another, wishing for better things, but having to face the reality of the situation.

Pittsburgh and San Francisco will face off again tonight in a 9:05 PM EST West Coast Almost To Late To Stay Up Because I Am Old Game.

For the Pirates Wil Crowe (1-5, 6.12 ERA) toes the rubber against Kevin Gausman (8-3, 1.84 ERA).

Cherington and Company Love To Target Guys From The Wood Bat Leagues; Especially The Cape

Over the past week Pittsburgh Pirates Draft Talk, especially the potential for General Manager Ben Cherington to work the system in order to sign four first round talents, has flooded social media to the point that many of the other draft picks, aside from maybe 14th Round selection Braylon Bishop, have become just an conglomeration of numbers and equations that will allow the Pirates to sign Henry Davis, Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White, Jr. and Bubba Chandler.

Now, I understand that in general this was the strategy employed by Cherington and his war room, with the overarching goal to obtain as much high level talent as possible. However, we also can’t let let ourselves fall into the trap of thinking that nearly ever one of these other picks were simply just a means to an end, and that none of these selections beyond the top four or five mean anything to the Farm System that Cherington and Company are building. This is mostly because as far as success rates are concerned the odds are that only one, or possibly two if the Pirates develop them properly, of these Top Draft Prospects will actually become contributing members on the Major League Level. So, it only make sense to have all 21 selections count to a certain degree.

Enter the Pittsburgh Pirates Scouting Department; who Cherington must ultimately trust to identify talent in places, and in players, that might have been otherwise overlooked. For the Pirates this place has been the Cape Cod Baseball League; and as far as players are concerned, the level of talent these scouts have discovered thus far speaks for itself.

The roots of the Cape Cod Baseball League are delicately interwoven throughout the rich history of professional baseball in our country, and eventually into the Major League Baseball Draft as well in recent years. Founded in 1885 as league that was more for entertainment and competition between Cape Cod towns, it slowly morphed into a semi-pro funded venture, back to a resident only association and finally the NCAA sanctioned organization that it is today; eventually becoming the only wood bat collegiate league of its time in 1985, with famous and Hall of Fame alumni that includes Pie Traynor, Carlton Fisk, Frank Thomas, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell. Also, it should be noted that the last four #1 Overall Picks in the MLB Draft have put their own stamp on the league, across towns such as Bourne, Chatham, Falmouth and Wareham; ergo, it clearly isn’t just the Pirates that have found their future top prospects in the Cape. Nevertheless I think I could put together a pretty tough argument, that no other team has really dug as deep as the Pirates.

During the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, four out of the five college players selected by Cherington and the Pirates had made their mark on the Cape Code League. Nick Gonzales (Round 1: 7th Overall) was the league MVP in 2019 with a .351 AVG and 7 homers, Carmen Mlodzinski (Round 1, Comp A: 31st Overall) produced a 2.15 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 29.1 innings of work, Nick Garcia (Round 3: 79th Overall) posted a 3.18 ERA and struck out 20 in 17 innings of relief and Logan Hofmann (Round 5: 138th Overall)-at only 19 years old-struck out 22 batters in 16 innings, while putting up a respectable 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP.

Now, at this point-even though it is extremely early-it is hard to argue with any of these selections by Pittsburgh. Sure, Gonzales has been bitten but the injury bug and has a K rate north of 30%, but once again it is extremely early. On the other hand Mlodzinski, Garcia and Hofmann have impressed beyond most original expectations; although Mlodzinski has now found himself on the shelf in Greensboro as well after starting the season with a 2.63 ERA, an even 1.000 WHIP and 54 Ks in 9 starts across 41 innings. Meanwhile, Garcia (3.27 ERA, 1.318 WHIP and 48 Ks in 44 innings) and Hofmann (2.76 ERA, 1.039 WHIP and 57 Ks in 42.1 innings) have both earned their way into the starting rotation for the Marauders.

Which brings us back to the present, or more specifically a week ago when Cherington had to dip back into the college ranks; at times trying save some slot money to put towards the more high profile picks. And once again, just like the previous year, the Pirates found their way into wood bat leagues. Of the twelve college players selected in this year’s draft eight of them had participated in a wood bat league, with five coming from the Cape; highlighted by Sean Sullivan (Round 8: 223rd Overall), Justin Meis (Round 10: 283rd Overall) and Drew Irvine (Round 19: 553rd Overall).

Back in 2019, while Gonzales, Mlodzinski, Garcia, and Hofmann were tearing up the Cape, future Pirate Sean Sullivan was more than holding his own with a 1.96 ERA, 37 strikeout and only 6 walks in 8 starts for the Cotuit Kettleers. Then only a year later, and the whole way across the country in the Northwoods League, Drew Irvine posted a 1.96 and 38 strikeouts in 23 innings. And finally just this year, a local boy from Bethel Park, Justin Meis stood out due to his 2.08 ERA, .808 WHIP and 17K/3BB ratio in 17.1 innings.

So, it begs the question, why are scouts, and the Pirates Scouts in particular, drawn to players that have gotten their feet wet in the wood bat leagues? Often, I hear and read fans speak about the attraction of selecting a player that has played against higher levels of competition in the tougher conferences in college baseball, which obviously should be seen as a plus at times; especially when they perform. Well, this is no different; and in this case it includes the adjustment of holding on to something other than a piece of metal, whose only purpose is to launch a ball into outer space, as they play against some of the best players in the country.

Believe me, this means something in my humble opinion. Moreover, and more importantly, it means something to the scouts who are entrusted with building relationships with these young men, projecting their potential, advising the management team as to whether or not the should be selected and ultimately signing them to a Major League Organization.

And most importantly, it clearly means something to Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

A Not So Gentle Reminder About Rookies

7-22-21 By Gary Morgan

2023! All these prospects will be here and the division is ours right? Top ranked farm system, filled with talent, and probably more coming, this should be a done deal.

Probably not quite so easy.

I’m not here to dash your hopes, but for every Bryan Reynolds who comes in here and looks like a pro from minute one, there are ten who struggle.

Getting guys here is part of the process, and yes, we should all hope and expect that this management team has changed enough of the development system to ensure players are more prepared. That still won’t change the reality of baseball.

Look at Ke’Bryan Hayes for instance. Let’s go ahead and lump his first month back in 2020 into his rookie campaign. Look at it that way and he’s had an outstanding start. 3.3 WAR, .312 Average with a still emerging power tool and 9 homeruns.

Incredible start.

All that being said, you can see while watching him that he’s fallen off a bit. He’s still having an above average start to his young career, but it certainly isn’t what we saw in his first month is it?

Let’s be clear, Hayes too is best case scenario.

More often you see players like JT Brubaker. He had a nice start to the season even partnered with Tyler Anderson to provide the only tangible anchors of consistency in a rotation expected to have few.

He’s had hiccups, and recently he’s had more than hiccups. His approach to pound the strike zone that worked so well for him early on has now been scouted and he’ll have to learn how to combat that by learning the difference between pitching and throwing. It’s a process, one that some guys never learn.

So if you want to say Brubaker is not going to work out as you watch this season pan out, I suggest you take a step back and realize this is the natural progression for most young pitchers. Not to be confused with Mitch Keller, because the real difference isn’t some set of numbers or outcomes. Sure that’s part of it, but what you want to see is learning. That was the real issue with Keller, nothing was changing, no evolution was taking place. Doesn’t mean he’s done, or they won’t help him find things that need to happen, just means it wasn’t taking place.

You want to see signs that Brubaker is seeing things need to change, watching him learn that sometimes he has to play the edges a bit more. That slider that catches the outer third for a called strike, well, sometimes you have to show it’s going to start in the zone and break out. That fastball upper third to catch a batter sleeping, well he isn’t sleeping anymore, best make that upper third and in.

It’s a learning process that you have to be willing to take on. Some guys get stuck on the memory of early success and prevent themselves from continuing the journey.

The Pirates in this current system, and yes, regardless of the owner, are not going to go out and buy a ton of guys who have already gone through this. Even if you still don’t buy that and think another owner would, surely you at least can see not enough.

Reality dictates, and frankly history as well, that the young prospects by in large are going to all to some degree go through this. Rarely does a young player jump on the scene and dominate from the jump. They show flashes, they show periods of domination but almost without fail they hit a wall.

Sometimes that wall is based in fatigue, the MLB grind is another level from anything they’ve ever experienced. Sometimes it’s a sudden realization that for the first time in their lives they aren’t quite as special as they’ve always been.

It’s not unlike going to college, acing all your exams, finishing top of your class and when you start your first job you realize pretty quickly that woman with 25 years of experience has something you couldn’t learn at school.

As the Pirates finish out this year, the more rookie they can work out of these guys the better. You want Brubaker to get his growing pains out of the way now, not next year. Next year for him needs to be about building.

You want Max Kranick to continue getting his feet wet so next year he has something to start from. Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to spend the rest of this season fighting his way back to recapturing his approach, so next year he can start becoming the force he came in as.

I say all this because when the rebuild really starts to pry that window open, youth is going to be everywhere. Rookies and 2nd year players trying to find their way.

Most of them aren’t going to walk in here and slam the door open. Every one of them has real talent, every one of them will need more than that to become winners. Look at those ETAs all you like, it won’t change this fact, it won’t alter the process.

Patience will be paramount, not just for us but the coaches and management as well. Even Roansy Contreras who lit AA on fire this year will probably struggle once he arrives. Maybe not right away, but at some point the best hitters in the world will find a way to hit him. How does he punch back? Does he continue to learn or does he hit a wall?

What if Mason Martin gets here and only the strikeouts follow? I mean that’s not the goal but will you scream to DFA him or will you understand it’s part of the process?

This talent is all great, it all has to be developed as many of you keep telling me. Well, it’s my turn, development doesn’t stop when they get that call. Rookies haven’t finished their journey, in fact if they are indeed to become successful MLB players, forget stars, just players, it’s just beginning.

I’ve been careful to word my projections and I’ve done so for a reason. I keep saying 2023 looks more fun and they’ll win more games, but I word it that way because I also think 2023 is going to have to beat the rookie out of most of them.

In fact, that’s exactly what I think we saw with the White Sox last year. They arrived early because a ton of rookies and young players came together and overperformed. Some of them are going through it now.

This is known all over the league. Why do you think teams like the Padres who think they’re ready to contend go out and get Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove instead of trusting rookies?

The Pirates already got away with this once. Remember rookie Gerrit Cole? Well, while most of you spent your time talking about him not being good enough, he was actually experiencing more success than most youngsters do. And you were right, it wasn’t good enough, but by 2015 he was leading the staff.

Doesn’t mean the team can’t win for 4 more years, but it does mean you can’t force fruit to ripen. Try all the tricks your mom taught you, stick those avocados in a paper bag on top of the fridge, put those bananas in the fridge, at the end of the day you still have to wait.

Snakes Sweep the Pirates, and the Pitching Led the Way

7-21-21 – By Gary Morgan

Bad teams can jump up and bite you. The Pirates have done it themselves to some of the best.

When two bad teams play each other though, all bets are off.

See, bad teams sometimes will play better baseball against teams they have no business beating because everyone gets there bristle up, everyone pays extra attention to situations. Sometimes at bats are taken with just a touch more seriousness.

One thing a bad team can’t afford to do is drop their guard. Playing a fellow bad team sometimes does exactly that.

All that being said, the beat to hell bullpen is the biggest problem right, well, that and hitting with runners in scoring position.

Today Max Kranick was back on the mound and only lasted 3 innings, giving up 7 hits and 4 runs. Spare me the he stinks stuff, one thing many of you need to get through your skull is that rookies often stink. The few who come up and look like the best version of what they’ll become are the exception, not the rule. And in case you weren’t aware, you better get used to watching youngsters find their way up here, because that’s kinda the plan.

It’s why I always caution people to look at the ETAs for prospects in the system and circle the date as when the Bucs will win it all. That’s not when many of those players will be what you’d call good. If every rookie was cut when fans thought they stunk, it would become physically impossible to field a 26 man roster.

No matter how you look at it, a sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2021 isn’t acceptable. No matter how bad the Pirates wind up being.

Rant over.

The Bullpen just can’t keep this workload going. The effort to save starters from throwing too many innings has caused the opposite in the pen. I understood the concern. I never liked the plan. I like it even more now that I’m watching my worst fears play out.

Bucs lose 6-4 and are mercifully off tomorrow. I’ll say this, they won’t look this bad against the Giants, for the exact reason I mentioned above. Well, depending on departures of course.

News & Notes

  • The Pirates have had 10 hits or more in 7 consecutive games. The offense, unlike early in the season, isn’t the biggest issue currently.
  • Steven Brault will take another rehab start in Indianapolis next week and it could be his last before returning, hopefully just in time to replace Tyler Anderson.
  • Chris Stratton is the best reliever the Pirates have on the market, not Richard Rodriguez. That’s a valuable arm there, one that will hurt to lose, because they have nothing ready to replace him. This is a role I’d really like to see Cody Ponce fill.
  • Jacob Stallings had a bunt hit today. The first bunt hit by a Pirates catcher since Cervelli in 2017.
  • Believe it or not this isn’t Arizona’s First sweep of the season. That honor goes to the Reds back in April.
  • Bryan Reynolds went 3 for 4 today, he’s just locked in. Fun to watch when a player get’s like that and as bad as this team has been we’ve had two most of the year.
  • Tough series to watch. They had chances, they had leads, they had home runs. They also had a totally exposed pitching staff.

The Pirates Lose Another One In The Desert, But That’s Far From The Entire Story

7-21-2021 By Craig W. Toth (aka @BucsBasement)

The Pittsburgh Pirates, as a whole, are not a good baseball team. The same goes for their current opponent in the first three games of this West Coast Road Trip, the Arizona Diamondbacks. As it stands currently the Pirates are the fourth worst team in all of Major League Baseball with a record of 36-59 and a run differential of -125, while the Diamondbacks are dead last with a record of 29-68 and are 147 runs in the red.

Statistically speaking these are relatively inferior ball clubs, to say the least. And one plays in arguably the toughest division in MLB at the moment. Hint, it’s not the Pirates or the NL Central. However, I would like to see what the Pirates record would be if they had to play the likes of the Giants, Dodgers and Padres on a regular basis.

It’s a battle of the bad. There’s no other way to put it. But please, let’s get upset about Derek Shelton removing a fatigued Tyler Anderson-one of your main trade chips-after 77 pitches in a meaningless game at the end of July. Or, better yet, let’s debate whether or not Clay Holmes or Austin Davis should have been DFA’d instead of Kyle Crick, because I’ve got some news for you…none of these guys, including Crick deserve to be on a Major League roster with the way they are performing. And in all actuality there are still about another seven or eight players that could be jettisoned of the 40-Man today and I wouldn’t even bat an eye.

I mean honestly, what are we even doing here?

There is so much more to be focused on.

How about our All-Star Centerfielder that learned how to fly last night?

Or, maybe that when Nick Mears finally got to pitch on his fourth call up-the third in July-of the season, and proceeded to strike out two in a scoreless eighth. He’s only 24 by the way.

Or maybe, just maybe that Ke’Bryan Hayes has leveled out a little bit after his mid-season funk; slashing a solid .288/.362/.423 in his last 15 games. Although, I have to say that the 9 Ks vs. 0 BB over the last 7 don’t give me the warm fuzzies.

Sure, the Pirates fell to the Snakes 11 to 6; thanks to an 8 run bottom of the 7th. However, as the title states, this is Far From The Entire Story.

News and Notes

  • Tyler Anderson has posted a 3.89 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He now has 7 quality starts on the season; including the one last night. Now, I am not saying the Trade Value/Return for him is super high, but I would much rather have a “lottery ticket” in hand than a bunch of nothing at the end of the season.
  • The Big Nogowski has homered.

  • Gregory Polanco also homered, because he he still has power. It is the making of regular contact that’s the problem. However, I can’t argue with keeping a guy in the lineup, for now, who can do that to a baseball 15 to 20 times a year.

  • I seriously can’t wait until the Trade Deadline has passed, so that we don’t have to see anymore ridiculous trade offers. Plus we can focus on more important stuff, like being mad about who we traded, who we didn’t and the list of Minor Leaguers we got in return; most of whom many Pirates Fans will know little to nothing about.
  • Also, can we please pump the brakes on ranking prospects before some of them are even signed. I get wanting to be out in front of a story, but at this point it is just getting ridiculous.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=pit

The Pirates and Diamondbacks are back at it again in a few hours at 3:40 PM EST-Hooray for no night game-as Pittsburgh looks to avoid the sweep.

Max Kranick (1-1, 3.38 ERA) takes the mound against an old foe, Madison Bumgarner (4-6, 5.35 ERA).

Oh, and Happy 24th Birthday Max!

Player Evaluation at Some Point Reaches a Conclusion

7-20-21 – By Gary Morgan

The last two years have been all about evaluation.

Players who were already here, players they wanted to bring in and try, ways of using them, you know, seeing what they had and deciding where to go from here.

That’s going to bring about things like what we saw yesterday with Kyle Crick being DFAd. I mean, we’ve seen countless guys survive the DFA and wind up back in AAA, some have even come full circle like Wilmer Difo.

The conversation really needs to start with honesty. Not who you’re a fan of. Not someone you think hasn’t had enough of a chance. Just honest evaluation of your own. Not emotional outbursts, real evaluation.

Look at Kyle Crick, not just his performance this season, how his time in Pittsburgh has gone and I’m not going to bury you with numbers here. Kyle came to the Pirates by way of the Andrew McCutchen deal, one that brought Bryan Reynolds as well. He stepped right in and looked like he could have been a lock future closer on this club back in 2018.

2019 started much the same but something started to shift. He started struggling with command, his velocity dropped which exasperated his problem with command. Let me explain why a bit more here. Without the velocity sitting upper 90’s, hitters were able to spit on his slider. As electric as it is, as crazy as the spin rate is, if you can’t control it with pinpoint accuracy to hit corners, you need to at least get swings and misses.

So hitters started waiting him out, making him throw his now less than stellar fastball, and hitting it hard when he missed in the zone.

Then there was the locker room fight. This is the cover people like to provide Kyle. See he punched a guy who deserved to be punched and while we all should assume it had nothing to do with what Vazquez was doing off the field (at least you better hope so, or else everyone in that room was complaisant) he was seen in a way as a folk hero.

Thing is, those issues I pointed out were happening before he busted his hand on a pedo’s face. He had other off field happenings, none bigger than the loss of his fraternal twin Kevin.

So here’s where we are, ready to start 2020, the velocity is still missing, he’s still missing his spots. In the spirit of evaluation, the Pirates took him into 2020 and tried to use him as a back of the pen guy, but injury took over. He would only play 7 games last season and in those 7 games looked like he had at least figured out how to adjust to his change in stuff. It was a positive step, one that gave the Bucs hope he’d continue to evolve in 2021.

So they entered this season thinking the same way, after all he didn’t get a real shot in 2020 to be evaluated, he still had crazy talent, give him a shot right?

This season, things started out well. Again the velocity wasn’t there, but the adjustments were. He made it work for him and for a month, looked like a fixture. Again, it fell off the table, to the point Derek Shelton could no longer find a justifiable reason to use him.

He’s out of options, he’s out of chances, and that’s the whole story.

This isn’t because he gave up one homerun. It’s not because they hate the guy. It’s because they evaluated him, hopefully in much more detail than I just did.

When you don’t have a good baseball team, you can’t hold on dearly to the fringes of that roster praying every bit of unrealized talent is suddenly going to emerge, sometimes you just have to realize the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Kyle is a guy who was going to be up for a decision next season anyway. Entering arbitration the Pirates needed to make a call here, and they did. If somehow he squeaks through the waiver wire and winds up back in AAA and they want to try to figure out how to help him manage what he has to work with, great. If he get’s picked up because someone else thinks they can help him unlock his talent, great. Point is you can’t keep trotting him out to your MLB mound hoping for different results when you have the stack of evidence I just laid out.

Is Kyle the only guy like this on the roster? Oh hell no. They have any number of guys the evaluation could end for very soon, maybe a few who have to change roles, but to have the rebuild pay off, at some point you have to start clearing away rubble and build on a flat surface.

I’m actually encouraged by this move. There were easier things to be done, instead what they showed us is there comes a point when the evaluation is over. There comes a point where how long he Pirates control a player, how cheap they are, how brilliant one or two of their skill sets look, at the end of the day, if you don’t perform, you don’t have a place on the roster.

Oh yes, there are absolutely others and their day will come too, but you needn’t rush it and more importantly, now we needn’t question it. It’s happening before our very eyes.

Pirates (36-58) Fall to Diamondbacks 4-2

7-20-21 – By Gary Morgan

This has been the unfortunate recipe for so many games this season. Bucs have chances to score but don’t manage to even scratch one across while the opposing squad seemingly feasts on the high fastball philosophy from Pirates pitching.

It’s pretty clear that Chase De Jong isn’t an answer. I’m not shocked by this outcome but he was worth a shot. At 27 years old and not eligible for free agency until 2027 the Pirates have taken a situation of not having nailed on rotation components to see if they could find themselves a free pitcher.

There’s a difference between kicking the tires on a 27 year old with a ton of control and no options and evaluating the performance of someone you actually think has room to develop.

That said, I can’t question the want to. More than once this season Chase has seemingly walked off an injury, or recovered from a terrible start to provide length. He’s had outings where he started well and then seemingly hit a wall in an inning, gives up some really hard contact, looks like he can’t hit the zone then gets back on track in the next.

If Chase was a 23 year old with 2 options left, you might call this potential. At 27 years old you might call him a future long man or someone else’s project.

The offense sputtered. Hayes and Reynolds came through but when resting Adam Frazier those two just didn’t have enough opportunities.

The Diamondbacks are the worst team in the league record wise, but teams like the Pirates will often play better baseball against better competition. I said this on Twitter last night and someone called it the Tomlin effect. Slightly different. The Pirates aren’t good either unlike the Steelers who play down to their competition.

No, I think this is more about a team that gets their bristle up a bit when playing someone they ‘shouldn’t’ beat. Doesn’t mean they win most of them, clearly, but it does mean they’ll play good teams tough more often than not.

I’m not saying they walk in expecting to beat teams like Arizona, but lets just say it looks like they aren’t expecting a dog fight either. Problem is, this is a team that is only going to win most nights when dog fight is part of their mentality.

Pirates 2, Arizona 4.

Back at it tonight at 9:40 Tyler Anderson vs Taylor Widener

News & Notes

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes had a couple hits last night and while that’s encouraging, his most positive step back to being the young start we saw debut with the Bucs was an out. He drove a ball to the right-center gap with authority and in general had an opposite field approach all night. That’s what will get Ke’ back to being Ke’.
  • Jared Oliva is probably one healthy player away from finding himself back in AAA. The Pirates haven’t given him many opportunities and it’s very hard as a rookie to sit on the bench and keep your timing. Last night as a later inning replacement he was able to go 2 for 2. It’s not going to keep him up here most likely, but success is never a bad thing.
  • Kyle Crick was DFAd before the game tonight. I guess to some it was a shock but the Coach was clearly not comfortable using him, and if you tell me you looked forward to watching him pitch I’d have to make sure you watched. He’s a name, but ever since he lost his velocity he’s been largely a liability, and if you want to be nice, he’s at least been dicey. You can’t rail on about how bad this team is, then turn around and get upset when they move on from one of the reasons. Of course there are others, maybe even others that should have gone first, but Crick was clearly worthy.
  • Watching John Nogowski play, you’d never think he’s a rookie. He plays the game like none of this impresses him. Everything down to the nonchalant way he receives the ball at first screams been there done that. It’s easy to heap praise on a guy hitting like .400 since joining the team, but the way he plays the game just looks different.
  • Chasen Shreve should be someone other teams want at this deadline. Lefty relievers are already a premium commodity but he has a 0.7 WAR, 2.16 ERA and a WHIP at 1.240. He’s a classic rental, and at this point I’d be shocked if he wasn’t snapped up.