Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

7-19-21 – By Gary Morgan

The draft is over and the Pirates have done a lot of the work already to sign and get these guys a taste of pro ball this year. The goalposts keep moving on what success looks like, first it was the wrong pick, then Baseball America slapped that down. Then it was they won’t sign all those other 1st round talents they picked, now it looks like they’ll get them all, even Bishop is in play. Maybe just sit back and let the process play out, some folks are straight looking silly at this point.

Fun weekend of baseball over at PNC, and as usual I’ve got some thoughts to share about our Buccos.

1. Visiting Fan Takeover

I mean, this has been going on for as long as I’ve been going to baseball games. And since I’m old, that’s a long time. Visiting fans flock to PNC and sometimes like this weekend they are easily 50% of the populous.

I always find them to be polite, and knowledgeable fans who just die hard support their club. No ill will coming from me, in fact, I respect the hell out of it.

It makes you cringe hearing louder cheers for the visitors than the home team, and to the Pirates fans’ credit they tried like hell to rise above it and out cheer them and when Jacob hit that Grand Slam to win the game in walk off fashion Saturday night, they absolutely did.

Pittsburgh has been, and can be a baseball town again. They just need something to root for. For some of us, a team that tries and outkicks their coverage on occasion is enough to get amped. For others, the amps aren’t gonna kick up until such as time as they expect to win on a nightly basis.

But I’ve seen a lot of complaints that PNC was overrun with Mets fans this weekend, and while it is true, most of you weren’t buying tickets right? I mean there were entire sections with ALL Mets fans, doing soccer style chants complete with Fat Heads of their favorite players, and the local economy sure enjoyed the takeover.

We can’t get mad that other people are buying things we didn’t want. I’ll admit, it’s not the scene I want to see when I go to a ballgame, but Lord knows Steeler fans have done it to Cincinnati and Cleveland over the years, man we even did it to LA.

2. Why Would Henry Davis Accept Less Than Slot?

By now you all know the Bucs got their guy for about 2 million under slot. So I’m getting asked, WHY? Why would he take less?

Couple things play in here. First and probably most important, he’s not spoiled for choice. He either has to sign or go back to college, and that’s not as simple as go back to college and try again next year, the likelihood he is again the top pick is slim to none.

Next up is the competition for the first overall pick. With 6 or 7 depending on who you trust competing for the top slot, and only one being hell bent on getting full slot (Leiter) it stands to reason Davis would be up for bargaining. If he wasn’t the first pick chances are he’d have dropped as low as 5th which would have been less than the amount he signed for anyhow.

Imagine you apply for a job and are one of 5 very qualified candidates. The job is posted for 60K and when they call you they offer you 50K instead. You’d buck at that and at least ask or protest that you thought it was higher than that. They’d probably counter with telling you they have other candidates and the conversation would either end with you taking less or potentially not getting the job.

This shouldn’t be seen as a reflection on how good he is, or his deservedness to be the pick, it’s simply fact, and fairness isn’t a thing in baseball, at least not the money aspect.

3. Hug Watch

The West Coast trip right before the deadline is at least in old guy like my eyes a traditional opportune time to make deals. The team is far from home, late games, less fans watching the day to day. This has changed some over the years as the internet has made news cycles 24 hours but this could still be something to look for with the timing.

There hasn’t been much movement league wide as of yet, but some shoes have to start falling soon.

If you’re a Pirates fan, and I’ll go ahead and assume by reading this you are, this really needs to be about getting a worthy return, not just a return. Asking for too much is a relative term, if you aren’t going to get what you consider enough value, consider the value of just keeping the player.

This is exactly what happened with Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove. The Bucs didn’t like the offers at the deadline and instead held their cards. No matter how many times you’ve heard Frazier is getting moved. Hell no matter how many times I’ve told you he’s probably getting moved. If the return isn’t there, they won’t do it.

One thing Cherington has shown us so far, he has zero willingness to move assets for less than he’s looking for.

4. Things We’re Afraid to Expect

When a group of people are beaten down over time they find ways to protect themselves. Pirates fans are no different. We know the system is rigged so we stop expecting certain things that make winning possible. We know the owner has been cheap so we stop expecting them to ever do something to show they’re willing to spend.

It’s not just that we stop expecting it, we stop demanding it, I mean some of us stop even asking for it. We certainly don’t predict it.

For real change, there needs to be a clear expectation from this fan base and no it’s not to reach some arbitrary number on the payroll ranking.

Look, nothing any of us say is going to honestly affect change from the team’s perspective anyhow, but if you ever want to start seeing the negativity surrounding the team to change, those who have hope must stop acting like they don’t.

Oh you’ll be called hopeless, or even a shill. Deal with it.

When there are things that need done to make sure this time is different, yell about it. You’ve been patient as the Pirates started this journey, so don’t be afraid to make sure everyone knows that didn’t come for free.

For me, this is getting something done to keep Reynolds in black and gold. I’m done tempering that expectation, and I’m all done acting like they can’t, or might not, be able to do so. Get this done.

This isn’t to be confused with constantly reminding everyone of the team’s failures, we’re all aware of what has been. It has no bearing on what we should expect, if not demand. Don’t be afraid to expect better, I doubt Ben Cherington and Travis Williams did when they took the gig.

To me, we spend too much time being afraid to be wrong. If you are, just admit it, learn from it and move on. When the error is believing in something and being let down, you aren’t the one who made a mistake anyway.

5. Promotion, Demotion, and Unexpected Contributions

Some of this stuff doesn’t make much sense.

I mean, when you sit there an just see transactions come across the ticker and all you have to go on is the stat line you can just feel lost with confusion.

For a few weeks now Mitch Keller has done well in AAA, leading some to believe he had turned a corner. I’ve told you though, nothing has changed from what he did in MLB. The pitch types were the same, even the misses were the same. This was nothing more than the club letting him see, and experience that at his core he still is a good pitcher.

Then came his last outing yesterday, and man he got shelled. If you’ve been watching him, and I again don’t mean the box scores. This week showed some subtle changes being introduced. His fastball had a tail, subtle movement that he conspicuously missed in MLB. This takes time and practice to master.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you it was a positive step, but it is however a step. In order to get back to MLB and be the impact player the club wants him to be these are things they can’t just skip.

On another side of the spectrum, we all watched Rodolfo Castro have what we felt was a coming out party against the Mets before the break. He has 3 MLB hits, all homeruns, and watching him swing, it sure looks like that’s his goal.

The Pirates have a belief that he is primarily a 2B and 3B, obviously two positions currently on lock down but he has a history of playing corner outfield and SS as well but being as they have a plan for him that requires regular playing time, I get it. I don’t get going back to AA but if I’m honest, I’d have just kept him here so same difference I guess.

Then you have a guy like John Nogowski. I think I wrote in one of these not too long ago I saw no reason for this acquisition. They already had a AAAA scrub named Will Craig for this job, something to that effect.

Look, I’m not willing to claim Nogo has a roster spot all locked up but it’s impossible to argue the Pirates saw something and did the right thing here.

Hey, at the end of the day, I’m an opinion jerk like anyone else, with the possible exception of admitting I was wrong.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Updated Rumors

7-19-21 – By Joe Boyd & Justin Verno

Justin Verno – OK, we’re back and have some rumors to talk about! But before we do, there are two things I want to throw out here first:

1-Congratulations to Ben Cherington and his staff on a tremendous draft.  In a way this directly relates to what you and I do here, Joe. The idea of trades is to fill the system with high end talent, and same goes with the draft. BC and his scouts did a fabulous job in giving their development team the high end talent that will hopefully get this organization a World Series. To work with  A team’s  Minor League system is and always will be the lifeline of any baseball organization. There’s a ton of work left to do, I get that. But this is as exciting a draft as we  will see in a lifetime and has a chance to be special, hats off!

2-In the last article we mentioned the Mets as having a confirmed interest in Adam Frazier, but we decided to not build a package and I’ve been asked by a few people–friends, Twitter accounts, Facebook and more–why not and what it could look like. I won’t get too winded here, Joe, but I figure what the heck? That’s what we’ve been doing, so I put this together real quick, and with the Mets taking Rocker in the MLB Draft, it helps.-

JT Ginn–SP–ETA: 2024– 45 FV ($4M)

Khalil Lee–RF–ETA: in MLB-45 FV ($6M)

Alex Ramirez–CF–ETA: 2025– 40+ FV ($4M)

A quick look at their MiLB system shows this would not be an easy pill to swallow.  So much so that we didn’t delve into it.  I almost wonder if the Mets would be better off using Matt Allan 50 FV or even, dare I say Kumar Rocker, also a 50 FV player and sending less prospects? It’s possible, I suppose, but still unlikely and problematic to their system. 

Joe Boyd – Really enjoyed how Cherington handled the draft.  We don’t know yet, but can assume that Davis was underslot and the team was able to spend those savings along with the largest bonus pool to select highly valuable prospects that have signability issues.  Instead of getting the absolute top talent, they were able to add 4 potential first rounders.  It was really impressive and exciting.  I did a piece for ITBB a few weeks back as a 1:1 primer utilizing Sim Scores. If you don’t want to re-read that primer, just know a sim score in the 2.00-5.00 range is solid, and lower the better. I just wanted to quickly touch on those top 4 selections to see who would be the closest comps for them:

Anthony Solometo: Casey Mize – 2021 (9.61 Sim Score) –

Bear with me on this one, because Solometo is a unicorn. There are exactly 0 prospect reports that fall below the 5.00 threshold for Solometo.  I think there is some talk about his unique delivery, but it’s also difficult to find a 60-grade slider amongst the prospects available. In this comparison, Mize has a better fastball potential (55-grade vs 50 grade) and better command (60-grade vs. 55-grade) but they both have that 60-grade slider. Oh, and this is the 2021 version of Mize, so he is 6 years older than Solometo. I’m not saying this is the trajectory, of course. I just wanted to point out a relatively noteworthy comp for Solometo.

Lonnie White, Jr.: Kyler Murray – 2018 (3.11 Sim Score) – This one feels like it fits, no? Both are two sport athletes that just ooze that natural ability. They both have average to below average hit tools, but we could hope/expect that to develop once they focus entirely on baseball. I love the idea of adding athletes to the system and especially ones that could roam centerfield. However, if he shows up in Happy Valley next season, this Penn State Alum won’t be that upset!

Bubba Chandler: Tahnaj Thomas – 2018 (2.62) /Simeon Woods-Richardson – 2019 (2.97) – I’m going to end with two here because they are both exciting prospects. Chandler comps to Thomas and SWR prior to their breakouts, Thomas as a 40-FV and SWR as a 45+. However, both have developed into top 100 prospects and 50-FVs ($21.0M) on Fangraphs and based on the evaluation, Chandler looks to have the tools and potential to make a similar jump.

All in all, Cherington took this draft to the next level by adding all of these high upside guys. It must be said, player development is obviously essential, but adding the talent to the farm is the necessary first step. 

JV – The work for the Pirates organization has literally just begun here, but I for one am enjoying the hell out of this moment and I hope the fan base is as well. Now to the job at hand… rumors!

JB – Justin, I wanted to take a second to look at what Pittsburgh may leave on the table if they do not make trades.  Let’s say nothing else changes in our projected values for these players, but the Pirates decide, for whatever reason, to hold on to the likely trade candidates.  There is some sentiment around Pirates Twitter that there might be a better market in the offseason for the controllable assets.  That may be true in terms of suitors, the Pirates trade chips hold significant value to those playoff contenders.  For simplicity, I’m going to just discuss the top three: Anderson, Frazier, and RichRod.

Let’s start with the easy one, the rental.  If the Pirates did not receive a single call for Anderson, we’re looking at a loss of $4.7M in value that could be added to the system.  That’s simply his current Surplus Value because, well he doesn’t have any value next year due to free agency.
Adam Frazier becomes a rental.  So for Surplus Value, we’ll utilize the same projection of WAR for 2022 from our previous article and we will subtract just his estimated arb from next year. So that would look like this:

That’s a drop in value of nearly $12M.  One could likely argue that his ZiPS estimate should rise based on his performance this season, but I am trying to illustrate things here where only one factor (control) is changed.  
Rodriguez is the last piece and he is most controllable.  I am going to utilize the “updated” estimates for his future projections so we are on the same page.  RichRod’s requires a bit more estimation, but his ‘22 and ‘23 salaries would simply be the $12.4M estimate from our article but with the 2021 $1.70M removed from that amount.  So the offseason estimate for Rodriguez looks as follows:

That’s a drop in value of $8.2M in value that could be added to the Pirates system.  An argument could be made that Rich Rod could simply be dealt next season after showing a bit of a track record, but he will be 32 at that time.  

This is just for illustrative purposes, but holding on to these trade pieces may increase the pool of potential suitors, but also limits the value of the players.  If Pittsburgh were to hold on to all three players, they would forfeit the opportunity to add roughly $24.8M in value to the farm system.  That’s just too much potential future return to leave on the table for Cherington. 

JV – Kenny Rogers said it best when he said, “you gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.” Are there players that a team can be better served to wait until the Winter Meetings? Sure, typically the long term control players that could be true, and I’m referring to three years of control guys. But, a good GM has to know the opportune time to make the move. And unless Cherington gets low-balled here, I don’t think he lets this trade deadline expire without making a few moves. 

With so many fans now emerging thinking they should extend Frazier, it makes sense to talk about the surplus they lose in not moving him now. I just don’t see him as being part of the future here. He’d be 31 at the start of the extension and likely would be moving to a utility role. This is the part where the team needs to operate as a small market model, stick to the plan, and get the desired return. The Bucs should put all their eggs in the Reynolds and Hayes extensions and keep to the plan in moving an Adam Frazier. 

All in all, it’s been a slower week for trade rumors for the Bucs. The All Star break is a big part of that, as it’s usually pretty hush during the break. I did, however, expect to hear some rumor coming out of the break, but it looks like Cherigton has put the lock on the doors at 115 Federal Street because we just haven’t heard many.                                         

That said, we finally have a rumor surrounding a Pirate that is not Adam Frazier or RichRod. Andy Martino is reporting that the Mets have interest in Tyler Anderson.

(A shout out to @KG_55VFTG for bringing this to my attention)  As of writing this on Saturday the 17th, this was the only rumor out there and that may be a good thing as there’s a lot to unpack. 

First, I’d like to refer to our article on “The Rentals”  from a few weeks back. It’s not the surplus value I want to point out there, it’s the Mike Minor deal from last year. LH starters are one of the better commodities to have at any trade deadline and Mike Minor is a terrific example of that. And since writing that, Anderson has raised his ERA+ from 87 to 95. Lowered his ERA from 4.67 to 4.35 and his WAR went from .8 to 1. He’s been pretty solid. I expect Anderson to get a little more than his surplus suggests and I’d be happy to replicate that Mike Minor deal with two prospects that have a 40+ FV. 

Mr. Martino goes on to add that Mets may have to get rid of a contract and indicates that JD Davis could be that guy. While I’m a Davis fan, he doesn’t make much sense for the Bucs. Control is up in 25 and frankly, the Mets could do well moving him in a separate deal. So I am putting that aside and concentrating on just Tyler Anderson, the HR King!

The package-

Alex Ramirez–CF–ETA: 2025–40+ FV ($4M)

AN international signing, he’s raw. The hit tool needs work with a 20 grade, currently, but an FV of 50. He’s as high ceiling, low floor as it comes. He has some power, can run, and has a solid enough glove. The power he has is really interesting if that hit tool can develop.

Junior Santos–SP–ETA: 2023– 40 FV ($1M)

Junior has three pitch offerings, FB FV 60, Slider FV 50 and a changeup FV 50.  The velo sits in the low 90’s tops out at 95. Standing at 6’8” and just under 20, there’s room for the velo to tick up. 

So far, Joe and I have only built packages the Bucs could get, but this is a spot where I can see the Bucs sending a package to get a package. With interest in Adam Frazier and Tyler Anderson, it’s a natural jump to make. I won’t spend too much time on this other than to say it’s something to watch for. Could the Bucs convince the Mets to give a PTBNL? A certain someone that was drafted in the 2021 class? Dare I say, Kumar Rocker? Well, a Bucco fan can dream, right?

Pirates Drop Game 3 as Mets Get Payback

7-18-21 – By Gary Morgan

Last night the Pirates pulled off an improbable comeback. Today the Mets tried to return the favor.

They never would have been in that situation if they’d spent less time being petulant.

And I guess they could also spend less time brooding about John Nogowski and try to get him out instead.

That’s how things work sometimes.

See when you’re a team like the Pirates, 20 games under .500, even teams that didn’t do anything more than happen to be in a crap division to lead one like the Mets roll into town feeling like you should just roll over for them. Bow to their superior lineup. Swing at their pitches that don’t cross the zone. Most of all, don’t take advantage of their miscues or overt idiocy.

That, however is rarely how baseball works.

The Mets did get back into this one as JT Brubaker continued to slip from the steadiness he displayed early in the season. They tagged him for 4 runs and tacked on another later.

Brubaker is being managed differently. The Pirates are being ultra conservative with his pitch and inning counts. Aware that he’s handled quite a workload, they’re trying to mitigate it by deliberately shortening his outings.

With a 6-5 lead in the 9th the Pirates called on Richard Rodriguez who gave up a two run shot to Michael Conforto to flip the script on the Buccos 7-6.

Gamel walked to start the 9th but the Bucs couldn’t make it happen again.

The Pirates head to the West Coast, starting in Arizona. Chase De Jong vs that TBD guy again, he’s pretty good. 9:40 EST.

News & Notes

  • Gregory Polanco stole second in the game, he is now 9 for 9 on the season and easily leads the team in swipes.
  • Adam Frazier had a hit in the first inning yesterday and went hitless until the 8th of this one. You know you’re having a hell of a season when that raises eyebrows.
  • Kevin Newman’s bases clearing swinging bunt in the first had an exit velocity of 107 and a launch angle of -57. Again, you almost have to try to do something like that.
  • Adam Frazier moved out to Left Field today as part of a Spring Training style wholesale merry go round the diamond to insert Hayes and remove Polanco in the 8th. This wasn’t a “showcase his skills” type thing. Although it probably doesn’t hurt.
  • As good as Richard Rodriguez has been, this would have been his 14th save on the season. He instead blew the save with the two run blast by Conforto.
  • Ben Gamel was on base 4 times tonight.
  • This is the first time in National League history that a team has come back from a 6 run deficit one night and allowed the opponent to do the same the next.
  • The Pirates Catchers (54) have combined for more RBIs than any other team in the NL.

Some Nights Just Have It All

Prior to the start of Saturday’s contest with the Mets members of the Pittsburgh Pirates 1971 World Series Championship Team were honored, life-long Pirate player/announcer Steve Blass threw out the ceremonial first pitch and Jacob Stallings capped off a 6-0 come from behind 9-7 victory with a walk-off grand slam; only the third of its kind in PNC Park history, with Rob Mackowiak and Brian Giles bringing Pirates Fans the other two.

Sure, there may have been other story lines mixed in, but the night belong to your Battlin’ Bucs; who put up 9 runs in their final two at bats, silenced the naysayers-those who believe the team is tanking or doesn’t have the fight in them- for a moment and brought a raucous fanbase that was somewhat overrun by the loyal Mets Army to their feet.

News and Notes

  • Wilmer Difo put a charge in the Pirates offense with his 3-run homer in the bottom of the 8th. Since being to the Pirates on July 2nd, which ultimately followed his June 8th DFA, Difo is slashing .423/.516/.731 with two home runs.

  • The Legend of John Nogowski continues to grow. Not only did he grab national Headlines for his verbal spat with Marcus Stroman on Friday Night, but he also started the rally last night with an RBI double in this game. Since joining the Pirates Nogowski is batting a ridiculous .486 in 9 games.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes went 2 for 4 on the night, as he tries to break out of his “rookie” campaign funk. The league has continued to push against the Pirates young third baseman, and we can only that he remains on the attack; the hits will come.
  • Clutch is not really a quantifiable stat; although Baseball Reference makes a valiant effort. But, if it were Jacob Stallings would be at the top of the leaderboard. In Late & Close Games Stallings is hitting .343 with two homers, seven total extra base hits and 12 RBIs in 39 plate appearances. And for those of you who have only watched last nights heroics about 100 times like myself, here it is again.

  • Not everything from such a fun night can be positive; as evidenced by Wil Crowe lasting 5+, but giving up 4 earned runs and striking out as many batters as he walked (3); as well as Kevin Newman having an 0 for 4 night, which brought an end to his 5 game hitting streak.

After quick turnaround the Pirates are back at it again from PNC Park, with a game time start of 1:05 PM EST.

JT Brubaker (4-9, 4.47 ERA) is on the bump as Pittsburgh looks to start off the second half of the season with a sweep of Tijuan Walker (7-3, 2.50 ERA) and the Mets.

It should be noted that Walker is starting in place of New York Mets Ace Jacob deGrom, who is not afraid to face the Pirates, but is in fact dealing with forearm tightness; which isn’t nearly as interesting of a tag line.

To Make This Work, the Pirates Must Ensure They Secure a Foot Hold

7-17-21 – By Gary Morgan

I love to cook, its literally something I’ve done all my life and when you enjoy it as a pastime as I do you tend to start believing you’re smart enough to make changes to recipes. A pinch of that, a dash of this because you know, you’ve been doing this for a while and you know better right?

My mom gave me the family recipe for the sauce I grew up eating, I was delighted and got right to work. Followed the recipe, well, mostly followed the recipe. My wife who had become addicted to it as well since our marriage began ate it with me and smiled politely, but later admitted what I already knew, it just wasn’t the same.

See I replaced an ingredient, just one, and it wasn’t even a large quantity, it didn’t make it inedible, but it certainly didn’t scratch that itch. It was good, just not a winner, ya dig?

The Pirates have one ingredient of their own, and if they try to replace him with anything less, man, it might be ok, might even be good, but I wouldn’t recommend it.

Bryan Reynolds has been a very good player in his time as a Pirate, I mean if you look back through his documented career he’s always been a good player. What he’s doing this season, yeah, he’s a bit more than that.

He’s played 88 ballgames this year and last night eclipsed his personal best for home runs at 17. A power surge like that tends to come with a drop off in average, but he’s just keeping that where he’s comfortable, over .300.

Reynolds isn’t going to be a free agent until 2026 and most of you know, I’m pretty patient when it comes to this system rebuilding stuff, but it’s time to open the checkbook and lock this guy up.

I’m all done downplaying him, or acting like he’s just an on base guy, he’s doing things that very few ever achieve, and if the goal here is to build a team that competes for the World Series, I want the 26 year old leading the charge.

Can they be successful if they don’t get this done? Sure. I can make that sauce the way I tried as well, but if I want to ‘win’ replacing integral ingredients isn’t smart.

I’ve seen this rebuild pragmatically, it’s not that I’m excited to see players I value leave, but I’ve understood it. The system needed talent, and waiting for the draft alone to provide it would mean an even longer process. In fact if they didn’t make the moves they did, and probably will make, I’m not even having this conversation.

No matter what the Pirates do on this front Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes will be part of it’s culmination, but if you want it to last, and give yourself the best shot at reaching the goal I suggest Reynolds be your foot down.

Don’t worry, I know nobody is going to do anything because some blogger wrote about it and I certainly don’t think I’m writing something any of you will find controversial.

That said, calling for something like this, with purpose is an outcome we as a fan base need to stop being afraid to broach. We’ve bought into the rebuild. We’ve understood moving on from some guys that weren’t going to factor in to anything meaningful.

The time has come to start making the case for what we expect in return. So, I’ll start with locking up a superstar who directly said he wants to be here.

I can already hear your comments, why not both? Hayes is important too!!! (you know you love those multiple exclamation points)

I can get behind that, but to start this journey of deciding what the core of this team is, I’m starting with the best of the best. I want my switch hitting, power and average threat, heart of the order hitting, quiet leading, star outfielder first.

I don’t want the waters muddied here, I want Reynolds locked up, first things first.

I won’t put some timeline on this or else they’ve failed. But I will say he gets more expensive every single day. Do it.

Open. The. Checkbook.

Pirates Open Second Half With Win 4-1 Over New York Mets

7-16-21 – By Gary Morgan

Electric feel to tonight’s contest.

Something felt chippy from the beginning in this one. Perhaps carry over from the four game set in New York that preceded the All Star Break to this quick three game home stand with what I’d project as at least 40% Mets fans.

Regardless of why, something was up.

In the bottom of the first, Adam Frazier lined one second and Lindor made a hell of a catch on an all out dive complete with a snow cone.

Now, after this great play Lindor was a bit animated with pointing at Frazier. I guess it could have been over the top, but Frazier seemed to laugh it off. I thought, meh, maybe I’m just feeling more emotion cause it’s been a little while since I’ve watched a competitive ball game.

Chad Kuhl had it going for a bit, having his way through two innings.

In the bottom of the second the Bucs would load the bases with one out the ground crew scrambled.

A quick delay later and we were back in the same spot, Pitcher up, 1 out, bases loaded. Kuhl struck out looking after making Stroman throw some pitches and Adam Frazier came through with a two run single.

Chad Kuhl came back from the quick rain delay and struggled to find his velocity or location. Walked a couple guys and Bryan Reynolds #OpenTheCheckbook made a fantastic diving catch in center field to help Kuhl escape the inning.

In the fourth inning, Chad was still struggling to find it but fighting through, when Kevin Newman committed his first error of the season. The Bucs couldn’t escape this one unscathed but Chad minimized the damage and finished with a scoreless 5th.

Really an encouraging outing for Kuhl. This looked much more like the Chad Kuhl we were hoping to see, something to build on.

After that, the Bucs just stacked on and Pitched.

First Difo.

Then Reynolds #OpenTheCheckbook

OK, so I glazed over something.

In between all this good stuff, Stroman gave up a sharp line drive to John Nogowski. Seemed harmless, good play. But something happened. Stroman got animated about it. John got mad. Stroman got more mad. and then…

Silly really. I certainly wouldn’t call it a brawl, but it was, well as I said, something.

Whatever it was, for some reason I think I understand what that energy I was feeling stemmed from. It was the chemistry on this club right now. It may wind up being nothing more than a flash in the pan, but John Nogowski, Ben Gamel and to a lesser degree Wilmer Difo have all brought a bit of loudness and attitude. This is a group of nice and relatively quiet guys, and personalities or spark plugs if you will like that can help a team like this start to learn some nights they need to strut back at the opponents. Some nights it’s ok to be as animated as your opposition.

Every once in a while that kind of stuff is needed in a clubhouse because it brings it out of the guys who aren’t usually the first to speak up or puff out the chest. They know where they are in the standings and what the organization is at least trying to do. Sometimes when you get in that spot it can be difficult to remember you’ve got talent too, strut.

Beautifully played ballgame tonight. Emotional, but well played.

Fun Stuff really.

Mets 1, Pirates 4, nice win.

Tomorrow the Bucs will go with Will Crowe and as of right now the Mets could go with Jacob deGrom or TBA. I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

News & Notes

  • Tonight ended Kevin Newman’s incredible season long errorless streak, heck of a run. He is to be commended for the fielder he’s become. Say what you will about the bat, but he is about as solid as it gets over there. Couple real nice gems to follow that up too.
  • This game had a charged feel from the jump, maybe it was all the lightning in the area. It almost wasn’t
  • Bryan Reynolds hit his 17th homerun tonight. Ladies and Gentlemen, Bryan Reynolds is more than we thought he could be. This isn’t a return to 2019, this is a man emerging into his full potential. This is a cornerstone. Open. The. Checkbook.

Do the Pirates Actually Need to Chill on Bringing in Prospects?

7-16-21 – By Gary Morgan

Some of the things that make team building in Major League Baseball interesting, also make it incredibly difficult. Find a loophole, expect it to be closed relatively quickly. Figure out a way to make the system work for you, plan on a new rule being created to toss in a monkey wrench.

One of those rules actually predates the World Series itself, I’m referring to Rule 5.

When you get to the point the Pirates are in their rebuild you start to come to a realization that you may not be able to keep all these guys protected. See, just because someone is in your franchise, doesn’t mean you can just sit on them until you’re ready.

If you sign a player before they’re 19 you have 5 years before you have to protect them. Meaning, if they aren’t on your 40-man by then, another team can scoop them up. 19 or older and you have 4 years to do so.

Something interesting starts to happen when you get to this area the Pirates are approaching. They’ve built up a nice cache of talent to be sure, but with most of them being so far from MLB and relatively close in age the Pirates stand to have no choice but to expose more than a few players they’d really rather not.

I’m not trying to make predictions in this piece because I at least need to get past the trade deadline before I can really take in the whole landscape, but I will give you a couple examples of guys they might have to at the very least think about exposing.

Braeden Ogle the big lefty reliever is someone who has a real shot to make the club, even this year. If he does this issue will be moot because clearly he’ll be on the 40-man, but for some reason, say injury, he misses the remainder of the season and they head into December just not knowing what’s going to happen with him, you may see them roll the dice and hope he doesn’t get swiped.

Cole Tucker as we keep telling you, needed to really do something this year, because to use a roster spot to protect a guy who just hasn’t done anything, well how shall I put this, Cole could easily wind up being someone else’s Ka’ai Tom.

I was reminded recently while listening to Dejan’s Daily Shot of Pirates over at DK Pittsburgh Sports that this perfect storm has happened here before.

During the Dave Littlefield era, specifically 2003, the rule five absolutely decimated the Pirates system. According to Dejan, other team execs were actually out loud laughing as the draft unfolded.

With the first pick the Tigers selected from the Pirates C/INF Chris Shelton.

With the second pick the Padres selected from the Pirates OF Rich Thompson.

With the fourth pick the Mets selected from the Pirates LHP Frank Brooks.

With the sixth pick the Orioles selected from the Pirates INF Jose Bautista.

In the later rounds the Indians were given the same treatment, having 5 selected.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you this was the reason it took them all the way to 2012 to threaten a winning season again, but you can see how this can get away from you if you aren’t careful.

Imagine the Pirates bring in 3-4 more prospects from the trade deadline and decide newly acquired from the Padres Omar Cruz is safe to leave unprotected. It makes sense, as we sit here he’s in Double A Altoona and the big lefty has work to do in order to get closer to MLB. Now think about how the Musgrove trade starts to look different if they lose one of the prospects they worked to have included.

Not every team is going to make picks in the Rule five, in fact the Pirates figured a way to somehow have 3 this year via acquisition and then grabbed another in the AAA portion.

This isn’t typical, but the risk of giving away what you’ve been building is very real.

So, part of me wonders if maybe we the folks who cover the Pirates, and you the fans of said Buccos are maybe not thinking things through entirely when we talk about the team moving a bunch of guys at the deadline? In fact this is why I’ve predicted 3 moves at most.

Moving into next year, they don’t have a ton of guys you could feasibly say are on the cusp of making MLB, and this will force them to make some tough choices, some just for protection sake, and some because they could feasibly see them helping in MLB if forced into action.

Another effect this could have is that the Pirates could need to think a bit differently about the types of returned prospects they seek for some of their pieces.

For instance, they may need to seek players either very far away, like 18-19 or very close, 22-23 in AAA. Guys who they either have no concern whatsoever about protecting yet, or guys they think could jump right into the mix not unlike Joe Musgrove or Colin Moran a few years back.

It’s not like the Pirates MLB roster is stocked with untouchables, so moving on from players like Erik Gonzalez, Cole Tucker, Phillip Evans, Ka’ai Tom, Gregory Polanco and yes even new fan favorite John Nogowski could very well happen this December. The more they move, the more space they create, the fewer prospects they have to risk losing. Its gambling at it’s core, and it’s part of team building that makes this limbo, which 2022 will largely be that much more difficult. Players who could be ready during 2022, might not be to begin 2022.

You’d hate to watch another team take a stab at Tanaj Thomas not unlike the Pirates did with Luis Oviedo but rest assured that is very much so something that could happen. The Pirates want him to be a starter, but his fastball plays right now, and a desperate team looking for cheap high upside pitching could easily say that means he plays right now.

Make no mistake, after the trade deadline, this is the biggest thing on the docket. To understand more of what they’re thinking, pay extra close attention to who they promote and who they don’t. For instance, Rodolfo Castro had never played beyond AA before his time in MLB this season. Well, he needed protected, and whether they thought he was ready or not, his 40-man status made him a viable call up option. As he’s shown you, even if he isn’t 100% ready for the show, he has enough of his bag of tricks developed that it wouldn’t be hard to imagine another team taking a stab at having him ride the pine, especially an AL team that rarely use their bench to begin with.

Nothing is ever as simple as you assume in MLB, and I have yet to find an aspect where that fails to hold up.

Frequently Asked Questions – Answered

7-15-21 – By Gary Morgan

It’s been a fairly positive stretch here for Pirates fans this last week, I mean no games or player movement tossed together with feel good moments like the All Star Game and the Draft and of course it’s been more positive.

It certainly hasn’t stopped the questions though, so lets dig in on a couple shall we?

Why Should Anyone Care About Farm System Rankings?

This one is tricky.

I mean, the easy answer is being top rated in anything you do is good right? Now, it means nothing for this version of the MLB level Pittsburgh Pirates seems to be the marching call for those who want to make sure you don’t experience joy.

Technically, it doesn’t mean anything is the truth. It simply means their group of prospects have high ceilings. It doesn’t mean they’ll all make it, it doesn’t mean they’ll all reach that projected ceiling, it doesn’t mean the job is done. It just means that right now, they’ve done a good job of acquiring, drafting and developing top end talent that should or at the very least have a chance to impact the MLB club in the future.

This isn’t some magic number. In other words there isn’t a history of teams having the top or near the top farm system and the MLB club wins in 2.75 years or something silly like that. In fact these ranking systems have very little to do with the actual timing of the prospects graduating. In other words, you could have the top farm system in baseball and the top 8-10 prospects are 18-19 in Single A.

Mitch Keller is a perfect example of tempering expectations here. He was the Pirates top prospect in 2018, and as high as 7th as rated by MLB. We’ve obviously seen him sputter start here and while he could very well figure things out and get back up here, and there are signs he’s making strides, he certainly didn’t have impact in 2019 when he arrived.

The point is, it matters because it’s the goal. You’re rebuilding your system, stands to reason you’d want to see it become a top ranked unit, right?

At some point things start to flip. These players start making the club and graduate from the prospect lists, and the hope is you have more coming from behind keeping the system well positioned to help.

Let’s say the Pirates are ready to add, and their internal top 30 prospects have 7-8 of MLB’s overall top 100 baked in. They can potentially trade their 7th or 8th ranked prospect for something they need in MLB without depleting their system. If they have a low ranked system with like 2 or 3 members of the top 100, it’s going to be much harder to make the call that one of them isn’t needed.

Long way of saying, yes it matters, no it doesn’t guarantee anything. That said, if I want to buy a house, I must first save some money for a deposit before making an offer. Now, you wouldn’t run around to family and friends telling them you’re a homeowner right as you’ve reached your savings goal anymore than you should be running around saying you have a World Series in the bag when your farm system reaches number one. Doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited or see a bright future, just means the work isn’t done. They’ll need more.

How Can You Be Excited About Draft Picks Before They Sign?

I think this one is just disingenuous outrage primarily.

If I’m trying my best to be fair, I can say academically, yes, the draft picks don’t matter unless they sign them. Of course.

This is Ben Cherington’s second draft, so I suppose trust isn’t established and of course some won’t sign.

Teams also do their homework. Yes, even the Pirates.

They won’t swing and miss on many of these picks, and I’ll be blunt, some they “miss” on will be intentional. Meaning they make a pick they don’t think they can sign late as an insurance policy for someone they picked early who was maybe 75% on signing. Or they pick someone late who they know won’t sign just to save the money to use earlier.

This isn’t worth worrying about. I’d bet the farm they sign 17-18 of their picks and all top 4. If they missed on one, it’s not like this becomes some disaster draft.

I’ve even had a few people question that Henry Davis will sign. C’mon, there’s being jaded, and then there’s silly, guess which one this is.

Why Does the Media Coverage of the Pirates Matter?

Well, if you have followed me on social media or read/listened to my stuff for any length of time then you’re aware its not about being positive or negative, it’s about honesty and fairness.

For instance here’s a statement that makes me mental. “This team can’t develop anyone so who cares about prospects!”

Now, if you say that, how could anyone argue that this has been the case? This is where fairness comes into play, because that statement doesn’t acknowledge every tangible thing that plays into development has been turned over since 2019.

Now, that doesn’t mean I can sit here and say problem solved any more than you can pretend nothing’s changed, but it certainly can’t be stated as fact that “this team” can’t develop.

It’s little stuff like that. And you’re very right as you sit there thinking I should just ignore the coverage like that if I don’t like it, and I largely do. Problem is, some of you don’t, and you take that straw man or overt falsehood to my doorstep where I have to look like I’m defending an organization rather than watching something unfold and talking about it.

The very reason Craig and I started this site was our frustration with a large percentage of the coverage of this baseball team. There are plenty of blogs, plenty of journalists out there and I’m sure most of you read a bunch of them, we have and do too. Many of them do great work, but few who don’t create false narratives that only make the general public more frustrated.

I want nothing more than the audience asking questions based in reality. All I want is a discourse based in truth. One of those truths that hasn’t changed is Bob Nutting, and I challenge anyone to find one instance of me saying with any certainty that he’s going to suddenly spend a ton of money or did enough in the past. I’m not unaware of what this team is up against both internally and from the league itself. But if you want to start a conversation about the draft with Nutting won’t spend to draft…, forget it.

You can be honest and still criticize. You can be skeptical but not pessimistic. More than anything, you can just admit, sometimes you don’t know how something is going to turn out. But man if everything is doom because of one man, I actually get it, but I’m not going to spend every waking moment fighting that off. He’ll either do what is required when it comes or he won’t. If he doesn’t we’ll let him have it, and if I’m honest with you, even if he does in fact step up, many will move the goalposts to make sure he still didn’t do enough.

He created this situation, and it isn’t our job to save him. Essentially, don’t expect any flowery tributes to the owner if and when they do actually pull it off. He’ll still be a big reason it took so long after all.

If that’s not the kind of coverage you’re looking for, well, we’re aware we didn’t pick the easiest path to fame and fortune, I’ll settle for the knowledge I’ve tried to be honest about this team.

The Pirates Mix In A Couple Of Potential Tough To Sign Picks On Day Three

Even before the selections started rolling out on Day Three of the MLB Draft, Rounds 11 through 20, I noticed that I was on the same wavelength as many of the Pirates Fans I was interacting with; as we all knew the slot restrictions of the first 10 rounds were now off the table and that the first $125,000 of a bonus given to a player would not be applied to the overall slot bonus pool, so the opportunity to overpay for another player to keep them from their college commitment was potentially back in play.

A prime example for this in recent Pirates history, that myself and others have used regularly, was when Pittsburgh drafted Max Kranick in the 11th Round in 2016 out of Valley View High School in Archibald, PA, and eventually signed him with a $300,000 bonus in order to have him forgo his original commitment to the University of Virginia.

However, after selecting right-handed pitcher Jack Carey from Duke, two-way player Chazz Martinez from Orange Coast College-also the Pirates-and Owen Sharts from the the University of Nevada, my hopes of this type of pick were truly waning. But not for much longer as we would soon find out, when Cherington and Company came calling on the 94th ranked Draft Prospect on MLB Pipeline, Texarkana Outfielder Braylon Bishop; who I actually had listed as a target for Pittsburgh with the 72nd overall pick in the Third Round.

Of course, anyone who was following along on Twitter knows exactly what happened next.

Prior to being drafted, Bishop first tweeted out, and then subsequently deleted, a message to Arkansas Razorbacks Men’s Baseball.

He then tweeted out a message thanking the Pirates.

This was soon followed by a response from a member of the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association, who suggested it was possible that Bishop could make his way to the Pirates.

And now we have a direct interview with Bishop himself, stating that he plans on going to Arkansas in the fall to start his collegiate career.

So, I guess it’s Woo, Pig for Braylon Bishop until we hear otherwise between now and August 1st at 2 PM-the deadline for team’s to sign their recent draft picks. However, just for argument’s sake, let’s take a look at the signing bonus Bishop could have earned if he fell at or around the 94th pick to see if it would even be reasonable for the Pirates to still have a shot of signing this dynamic player.

This exercise is actually fairly easy to accommodate because the Pirates had the 102nd Pick at the beginning of the 4th Round, which comes with an assigned slot bonus of $571,400. Now, it’s always possible that he could have been selected earlier than this, but it also doesn’t mean he would have received full slot. Either, way this looks a pretty step price to pay; especially with the Pirates most likely set to pay over slot for 37, 64 and 72.

Meanwhile, as all this was unfolding the Pirates selected shortstop Daniel Corona from The Baylor Schools In Tennessee; who has doubled down on his commitment to Wake Forest the previous evening, so I wouldn’t exactly hold my breath about this slick fielding two-prospect walking into Pirate City anytime soon either.

In the end there was some good news in that Pittsburgh did get one Arkansas commit to bypass his time in Fayetteville, as their 20th Round Pick, shortstop from Weatherford College Brendan Dixon, announced that he would be joining the Pirates Organization.

And, with that, the 2021 MLB Draft came to an unofficial close for the Pittsburgh Pirates, as the easy part is finally out of the way. Now the hard part of balancing bonuses, signing players, choosing assignments within the Farm System and making some tough decisions as to how they will make room lay ahead.

Pirates All Stars Did Us Proud

We’ll circle back here to the pre-game festivities, but to me there is nothing that chokes me up like the actual announcements of the participants.

Want a quick breakdown of what the two Bucco All Stars Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier did during the game?

OK.

Bryan slammed one to the wall that took a really nice play by Aaron Judge to wrangle, and Adam had a typical day at the office, couple nice plays, and a well hit single which was the first hit of the game for the NL.

The National league fell 5-2 to the American league for the 8th straight time and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was named the MVP, primarily on the back of his monster home run.

Before the game, both players arrived in style.

First Adam

And just when you were starting to wonder if Bryan slipped in the back door…

All-Star arrival 🤩

Originally tweeted by Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) on July 13, 2021.

There he was with his beautiful wife Blair.

Before all this, they handled every question well and represented a team that most interviewers were all too happy to take shots at. All handled deftly.

A touching tribute to the Legend that is Hank Aaron

The nuggets that came out of this combined All Star week and MLB Draft will continue to trickle in but for one night, this was all about the best of the best, and our boys fit right in.

Want some news?

Well, this isn’t news to some of us, but there’s still something for it being stated publiclly.

Your move Bob. Now, this type of stuff is standard fare for players, consider the alternative after all. That said, that’s not really how Mr. Reynolds operates, he just as easily could have copped out and said that’s for the agents to deal with or something to that effect.

It’s clear, this will be Bob’s first opportunity to show he’s going to invest, and again, it’s not like he hasn’t done this part before. This should and I believe will get done.

This was pretty historic having two guys start from the Pirates for the NL All Star squad. I mean look at the other times it’s happened.

Two of the best teams the Pirates have ever had, and this year’s squad. Think of how outstanding those two were to get noticed in the environment they’re playing in.

During the week on MLB Network, a really brilliant breakdown of how Reynolds has evolved his swing.

This is the kind of stuff you don’t notice when you watch guys play every day, but little tweaks add up, as long as they’re executed by the superior talents of players this good.

Bottom line, great week for the organization, great week for two terrific players.