After “Playing It Safe” With 1:1, Cherington Goes All In At The Start Of Day Two

As soon as MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred announced that Pittsburgh had selected Henry Davis-Catcher from Louisville-as the First Overall Pick in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, every Pirates Fan-even those who had only loosely followed discussions leading up to Sunday-knew exactly what General Manager Ben Cherington’s strategy was going to be for at least the first couple of rounds on day two.

For weeks, and in some cases months, the words under slot have become almost taboo amongst Pirates Fans, and especially many members within the Pittsburgh Sports Media. It was seen as being cheap, even when it had been pointed out countless times that this has been the practice of MLB teams-ever since the slotting system was implemented, in response to the Pirates overspending on Josh Bell in Round Two I might add-to save money on the first pick, while still getting a highly rated player. The goal of this strategy would be to spend more of their slot bonus pool ($14,394,000 for the Pirates) in the upcoming rounds in an attempt to acquire other highly rated players who had fallen down the draft board, often due to sign-ability concerns because of college commitments.

This was the plan; but the only real question that remained is whether or not Cherington could pull it off.

With the 37th Pick, and the first selection of Round/Day Two the Pirates selected Anthony Solometo-Left Hander Pitcher from Bishop Eustace Prep, located in Pennsauken, New Jersey-who was ranked as high as #17 by MLB Pipeline and #28 by Baseball American, which would make him one of the top Prep/HS arms in the class. Now, as anyone who follows me on Twitter and/or listens to my Bucs In The Basement Pirates Fan Podcast knows that I was slightly critical of this pick by Cherington; and I checked it is completely allowed. The main reasons for this critique were the awkward mechanics of his delivery and the lack of a definitive third pitch; even though this kid has gotten Madison Bumgarner and MacKenzie Gore comps.

And just to be clear this should not be interpreted as a miss on Cherington and the Pirates part for anyone who is looking for a reason to take a dig at Pittsburgh’s approach in the draft; it just an observation of the work that may need to be put in to develop this young man, which can be accomplished. And I hope that it is, because when it comes down to it, I root for the success of every Pirate and every Pirates Prospect.

After the Solometo selection, Pirates Fans had to wait a little while for their next picks at 64 (Comp Round B) and 72. However, it ended up being well worth the time spent watching potential targets come off the board during the Second Round as the Pirates selected two NCAA football commits in the forms of Outfielder Lonnie White, Jr. from Malvern Prep in Pennsylvania and RHP/SS Bubba Chandler from North Oconee High School in Bogart, Georgia. Currently White, Jr. is committed to Penn State, while Chandler is Four Star recruit to play quarterback for the Clemson Tigers. Both of whom most likely slipped down in the draft due to sign-ability concerns; although I did see White, Jr. listed as low as 72nd on MLB Pipeline, but 32nd according to Baseball America. Meanwhile, Chandler was ranked at closer together at 21st and 20th respectively.

As far as White, Jr. is concerned, he is simply an absolute athletic beast. This dude has power to all parts of the field, as well speed (70 grade) and the glove to go with it (60 grade); all while effortlessly slotting into centerfield. As it stands currently the only concern for him is the aforementioned sign-ability as one of the top 30 wide receivers in this year’s college recruitment class.

On the other hand, Chandler doesn’t appear to be as much of a signing risk by just glancing at his social media, and more than holds his own on the overall athleticism scales as well; being the starting quarterback for his schools football team, a right handed pitcher with a plus fastball that touches 97 mph and a talented shortstop who has above average fielding ability to go along with a 70 grade arm.

Then, as could have also been predicted, Cherington jumped back into conservative mode with his next six selections, but that is not to say he focus solely on value -aka under slot– with the remaining picks. There were also at least a couple of players that were chosen by the Pirates, who got some decent buzz, and evaluations from sites that I rely on with regularity.

For example, Owen Kellington was named the Gatorade High School Player of the Year, after his senior season, in which he posted a .22 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 49 innings of work; with 91% of his outs coming by way of the K.

Another player would be Louisville Outfielder Luke Brown. who Prospects Live listed as one of their team’s favorite sleepers in this years draft class. A .322 career hitter for the Cardinals, Brown previously played for John A. Logan College, where he ranked second in all of NJCAA in stolen bases and was drafted in the 25th Round back in 2019 by the New York Yankees.

Of course, these potential steals in the draft, along with the four top 32 players according to Baseball America, doesn’t automatically mean anything is accomplished as far as the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates is concerned. It does however equate to Cherington being able to successfully execute his plan thus far in the draft.

Now, comes the real work; after Identifying and hopefully Acquiring, comes Development and Deployment.

As the Road Begins for Some Pirates, it Ends for Others

This is the natural order of things. Being drafted and signed by a Major League Baseball team means you’re one of the relatively small percentage of people who have been deemed good enough for a team to invest in your raw talent and believe in your makeup enough to trust you’ll take to instruction. It doesn’t however guarantee you’ll ever make it, let alone be a star.

In the middle of this draft we were given a real life example of this dichotomy.

Will Craig was drafted 22nd overall in the first round of the 2016 draft by your Pittsburgh Pirates and let’s be honest here, the Pirates were just as responsible for his failure as he was.

He’s nearly 27 years old, and arguably having his best season in AAA, thing is, by 27, one would hope that’s the case right?

The power prospect topped out at 23 homeruns and his highest OPS was .775 until this season. The Pirates drafted a College senior and slow walked him through the system until it fell on Ben Cherington and crew to finally get a look at him in the Bigs, and he didn’t take advantage of his shot.

I’ll be blunt, Will was just not a good pick, but any shot he had started evaporating in my mind when they left him in AA for a full season when he was evidentially ready for a mid season jump. Compound that with leaving him in AAA for a full season while he was showing promise there too.

If you’re going to make something of a first round pick who’s that old, you can’t start him in Low A and damn him to at least a 4 year progression through the system.

All that being said, he never really stepped up to force their hand either.

The Pirates knew it, and in response they tried to hammer Josh Bell into being a first baseman, conversely as they quickly realized they had probably doomed Craig to never finding a place to play, the Bucs started trying to use Craig in the outfield.

Cole Tucker is in danger of a very similar story, but from the complete opposite side of the draft age spectrum. He was drafted 24th overall in the first round waaaaayyyy back in 2014 out of high school.

His journey being long was expected, in fact he’s still only 25 years old so it’s not like he’s aged out of MLB.

Here was a guy that continued to move on up through the system seemingly regardless of stats. In 2017 splitting time between A+ and AA he had 101 strikeouts and a .766 OPS. The next season, 2018, in AA, he had 104 strikeouts and an OPS of .689

He still somehow earned a promotion to AAA and his .261 Batting average and .759 OPS wasn’t impressing anyone.

Injuries in 2019 led to his emergency call up to MLB and before Kevin Newman was finally given opportunity to win the position after he recovered from his own injury issues Cole put numbers up that showed he wasn’t ready. 40 strike outs to 10 walks, a .211 batting average and .626 OPS.

2020 for some reason I still don’t quite understand the Pirates decided to try him in CF and his batting numbers were even worse, 31 strike outs vs 5 walks, a .220 batting average and .527 OPS.

He’s scarcely gotten a chance in MLB this season and at AAA he’s not taking the bull by the horns either. He’s all but out of the plans, at 25 years old. To the point I’d actually be shocked if he made the cut for the 40-man next season, I actually could see them finding a team that wants to see if they can do better with him before they have to risk losing him for nothing like Mr. Craig.

These two players alone have been the poster boys for poor development, and more than even the Archer deal, failing to develop draft picks, specifically in the first round led to the wholesale changes we saw after 2019. And it doesn’t matter if you think they falsely accelerated or held back guys because at the end of the day poor pick was still on the table as on the GM and his team.

2015 first round pick Kevin Newman had a wonderful 2019 as long as you don’t look at the numbers behind the numbers. That’s caught up with him and while his glove has become elite, his bat is very much so below the line. Zero pressure from behind will keep him where he is for a bit here but make no mistake, he needs to at the very least get his OBA to a point where his speed can help the club, cause his bat isn’t doing it. I can’t call him a bust per se, because his pick at 19 overall afforded the Pirates the space to grab Ke’Bryan Hayes with their Comp A pick number 32.

Mark Appel never signed after being picked 8th in 2012, and it wasn’t a shock, he had been very vocal he wouldn’t. Turned out he was never destined to make the league anyway. Austin Meadows and Reese McGuire were traded off in two of the dumbest moves the club has ever made. Meadows as part of the Archer Deal, and McGuire as part of a payroll dump to get Francisco Liriano off the books.

So going through all this, you start to realize development alone wasn’t the issue, it was drafting and development.

As we sit here, we’ve of course not seen any of Ben Cherington’s draft picks make the league, let alone make an impact. I can do no more than tell you after they sign these picks this year he will have 7 or 8 of the Pirates top 30 in his portfolio.

We’ll watch this unfold over the years and nobody bats a thousand in the draft, but it is the key to making ALL of this work. If the identifying of talent and development of said players is improved, everything will come together.

You can expect more exits as the season evolves. We’ve seen Kevin Kramer moved and promotions will require more decisions to be made. Next season AAA needs to have more real options that could factor into the MLB club’s plans. For that to happen, the dead wood needs to be cleared away.

As cheap as Bob Nutting has been over the years, there have been very few developed players since Cutch/Marte/Polanco who warranted money. That needs to change, not just so the team can improve but because providing cover for someone who would rather not spend in the first place by having nobody worthy does nothing but perpetuate the problem.

This draft has been a positive experience for many Pirate fans, myself included, on paper Ben Cherington killed it. Now the real work begins.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five

7-12-21 – By Gary Morgan

Good afternoon all you Henry Davis super fans and doubters. Yesterday was probably the most feel good day we Bucco fans have had this year as the Pirates grabbed a new top prospect and won a game on the back of another.

1. Oh Henry

We could probably argue all day about whether the Pirates did the right thing or not selecting Davis number one overall in the MLB 2021 Draft, but instead let’s just talk about some things this tells us about Ben Cherington.

First, this is the second draft he’s conducted as Pirates GM, and while we haven’t seen the entire picture yet we do know two years in a row he’s taken the perceived top college bat available. Regardless of position, that fact is undisputable.

Craig Toth, my co-editor and friend, often talks about his method for evaluating prospects with me. He likes to put much more focus on a player’s floor than their ceiling. When you draft college players who have dominated NCAA it stands to reason this is a factor you’re looking at as well.

There is no doubt the projections on Marcello Mayer for instance have his ceiling higher than Henry, but the floor could be anything from replacement level to simply not making it too. Henry is more in the category of being extremely likely to make it and be a good player, with an upside of great.

This makes Davis what some will perceive as a slight, safe. Even Jack Leiter had half the scouts overlooking or being scared off by his height. So taking a guy like this who can hit even if he doesn’t stick at catcher makes a ton of sense. When you can’t afford to fail, don’t gamble.

Following it up with a really nice pick of Anthony Solometo a big left hander with a funky deliver they are sure to change quickly and they’re well on their way to a productive draft. Don’t get things twisted, this guy is a project. He’s not walking right in and shooting up the ranks. This is like buying a body for an old Dodge Charger and hoping you’ll find all the parts to turn it into a mean machine.

Here’s the thing, this is all about signability. They got four top 30 talents with their top 4 picks. None of this means they have 4 future All Stars, but it does mean that Ben Cherington is shooting his shot. We’ve heard openly from 3 or the top 4. Lonnie White Jr. is the only one who hasn’t spoken up.

Let’s put this in perspective, if all 4 of these guys sign, all 4 of them will move into the Pirates top 25 prospect list. That’s what you call a powerful impact.

2. What Do the Pirates Do With Nogowski When Moran Returns?

The short answer is, if Nogowski is making you question what to do when Moran comes back, smile.

The real question is not Moran, they’ll still need a backup first baseman even if they decide that role is filled by Moran himself. No, the real question is can there be a role for Phillip Evans, or Gonzalez, or Tom?

I think anyone who has watched this season can’t honestly be concerned about moving on from any number of players.

Bottom line, if Nogowski is an issue than he’s done far more than they expected he would, in fact, there’s little doubt he already has. If you recall, we spent much of the early part of the season wondering where Evans would play when Hayes returned from the IL, when’s the last time you thought about making sure Evans can play recently?

My gut tells me by the time Moran returns, we’ll be happy he’s back, but again, if not, it’s a far better problem to have than wondering why they keep using Erik Gonzalez at first base.

3. Speaking of Good Problems

What do they do with Rodolfo Castro? Let’s be honest, he’s had one really really good game. I’m struggling like hell to not go overboard, as most of you know this has been what I’ve called the most evolved prospect in the system. Meaning not that he’s the best they have, but the best that was close to ready.

His versatility is exactly what this club looks for, and not to be crazy about this, but when you’re rebuilding a team the benefits of showing a frustrated fan base a glimpse of something you’ve developed can act as a real beacon of hope.

Conversely, send him down so you can find a spot for Ka’ai Tom, Phillip Evans or Erik Gonzalez and feel the deserved wrath of the fans. Not that they should fear you or anything, they have to do what they think is best, but right this second, Castro’s swing is MLB ready and he’s even shown ability in the field.

Perhaps this is as simple as dropping him in to replace Adam Frazier, but just in case it isn’t, I suggest Gregory Polanco eventually getting healthy isn’t enough reason to send him back down.

The rest of this season could really be fun, but bold decisions will show how fun.

4. Trade Competition

When examining the trade market, it’s important to keep an eye on who else is available out there. For instance Richard Rodriguez was one of the top relievers available and still is, but the emergence of Craig Kimbrel from the Cubs probably closes a door for the Pirates.

It doesn’t mean they can’t move him or won’t but it takes away at least one potential suitor.

Sometimes when these types of situations crop up you can almost sit back an wait, because as long as Kimbrel remains on the board, moving Rodriguez won’t be nearly as easy. The price difference is real, Rich Rod is the bargain choice and he comes with control, but he also isn’t the perceived top choice if you’re looking for a nailed on closer. If we’re really honest, Richard isn’t a lock to be a closer on most teams, and that matters.

Think about stuff like this as you envision players being moved, because while we cover things like value and need, it’s equally important to understand the players on the block from elsewhere too.

Tyler Anderson is an affordable, steady left handed starter, that has real value in the market, but look at who else is out there, John Means, Danny Duffy, Matthew Boyd, Michael Pineda, Madison Bumgarner and I’m not even mentioning guys like Max Scherzer. Suffice to say, at least some of these will require clarity from their teams if not have a few moves drop before Anderson is on the table.

5. All Star Players

The Pirates have two All Stars of course, Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds, and what’s really shocking is these two were more than worthy from a team that quite simply is the bottom of the barrel when it comes to offense in MLB.

It says a lot more about the players surrounding them than the players themselves that even their prolific efforts weren’t enough to make this team look competent at the plate this season.

To have a record this paltry and have two deserving All Stars isn’t common, we’ve seen plenty of years when the player who wore the P was easily the worst player on the squad, and seeing them actually play was going to be a stretch.

What I think we’ll see instead is Adam Frazier taking the first at bat for the NL and Bryan Reynolds playing 2 or 3 innings himself.

Another thing here I like to think about is while it was awesome that Frazier was voted in by the fans, I love what it says about Reynolds that he was voted in by his peers and coaching competitors.

That should impress you because that vote tells you something. It tells you when other teams face the Pirates they worry most about one player, and that’s Bryan. He’s earned the respect of his opponents before the broader fan population and maybe that has something to do with his lunch pail persona.

It’s been quite some time since I was this proud of who represented my club in the game.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Transition

7-12-21 – By Justin Verno & Joe Boyd

Justin Verno – Okay, so Joe and I have examined a lot of the Pirates we feel could be traded by the trade deadline, from the likely candidates to the much harder to get candidates. And yes, there are a few guys we didn’t cover that could be dealt, as Ben Gamel has been making a nice push there. Or, perhaps a team makes an offer on JT Brubaker (we did not cover JT) that Ben Cherington just can’t refuse. But for the most part, I think we’ve hit the bulk of the guys that could be on the move.

However, it’s time to take the exit on the Trade Turnpike to Rumorsville. Over the next few weeks, we should be hearing a lot of rumors regarding these players. I guess I should say “more rumors,” Joe, as we’ve already heard some rumors here.

Joe Boyd – Yea, we’ve already heard some rumors.  But hopefully, if you’ve followed along, you know that it is unlikely that Andrew Vaughn will be wearing Black and Gold after an Adam Frazier trade.  And you’ll think twice before agreeing to a Reynolds for Robles and two non-prospects deal. Over the last several weeks we have provided a roadmap that is surely not a Rosetta Stone for trades, but at least a framework in which we can discuss, intelligently, fair compensation for the Pirates trade chips. 

Moving forward, we will look at some of the potential rumors, but not all rumors. We will certainly touch on rumors that are provided to us by Jon Heyman or MLB Trade Rumors or other mainstays in the industry (think blue checks on Twitter).  If you see a juicy rumor from HotStoveBurner, it can be discussed on other platforms. Our goal here is to chase down credible intel and provide insight on what we think could be coming back in way of a trade with that club. 

JV – That’s not to say that my neighbor doesn’t have a guy that knows a guy or that someone on Twitter that claims to have a friend that knows someone is lying, but there’s simply no way for anyone to confirm those kinds of things, so we keep to the “industry” guys. Joel Sherman, Jon Morosi, and the more reliable insiders. Let’s recap some of the whispers we’ve all heard…

-Chicago White Sox are interested in Adam Frazier. Multiple sources for this and it was reported by Jon Heyman:

After a couple close calls with Eduardo Escobar, the White Sox are also thought to be taking a close look at Pirates All-Star Adam Frazier. Talks are ongoing. Fit makes great sense but price tag has to be much higher.

-Blue Jays have interest in Richard Rodriguez, per mlbtraderumors.com via Jon Heyman.

Mets are another team in on All-Star 2B Adam Frazier

JB – If you’ll allow me to unpack the White Sox/Frazier deal. We have already touched on Heyman adding that Vaughn could be a part of the deal. Now, if he had heard that Ben Cherington ASKED for Vaughn? Well, that makes obvious sense. Why wouldn’t you shoot for the moon?

It also makes sense that Chicago would be in on Frazier. They have been hit pretty hard with injuries. And Madrigal really feels like the Frazier in their offense. So if he is done for the year, adding a high average table-setter would fit nicely on that roster. The kicker that Frazier is around next year too is just gravy. Back to Vaughn, as he is a 60-FV prospect which carries a value of $55M. That just shows how rare a prospect Vaughn happens to be.  If you look back at our first piece, we put Frazier’s value at $17M. I could do a bit of mental gymnastics to get his value up to ~$25M, but regardless, he still falls well short of Vaughn’s value. 

After Madrigal’s injury, we did a quick update to see how these two teams lined up (feels like we have covered a lot of trade deadline speculation already!).  That package looks quite light as Frazier has continued to tear it up and other teams have an eye on him. There is absolutely a chance that Frazier could start a bit of a bidding war for his services.  You could absolutely throw prospects at Pittsburgh to hit the value (Kelley + Bailey + Rodriguez + Adolfo + Ramos + … do you see how ridiculous this sounds?) but I just see Cherington finding a quality over quantity opportunity that would better align for from the Pirates perspective. I consider this fit with Chicago and Frazier to be unlikely at best. 

JV – The White Sox have come up from more than one insider, so I imagine there’s legit interest there. I’ve also had a few people on Twitter tell me that Cherington needs to get a top 100 prospect for Adam Frazier. And I have to admit there are actually more teams with interest than I had originally thought there would be. With that in mind, I do think there is a slight possibility of the Pirates getting that top 100 prospect; it certainly won’t be a 60 FV prospect. At this point Joe I can be talked into thinking Cherington could land a 50 FV prospect from the right team, but I still lean to a 45+ or 45 here. 

We aren’t here to just talk about Frazier. There’s a more solid RichRod rumor here we haven’t really touched on. I get the Blue Jays have been connected to him, but Heyman now has it written in stone for us, Joe.

Before we get started on the packages, we need to address today’s speculation from Heyman. 

While I do feel this is good for Cherington, I still can’t get to Adam Frazier netting a 55 or 60 FV prospect. I have doubts he will bring a 50 FV prospect. But hey, sometimes it’s nice to be wrong. 

None of the above rumors have any real info. No details of how far along they are in talks, if they are in talks, nor specifics about names or anything like that. They simply mention the interest and leave us to our imaginations. What’dya got Joe? Does Cherington get that overpay?

JB – I am going to say, Heyman keeps pushing this narrative, and I certainly hope he’s right. But I could also see a more realistic package that could be a pair of 45+ or 45 prospects with the possibility of being reclassified as 50s.  Of the teams we have mentioned, however, neither the Mets nor the White Sox have a farm that could provide such a return. New York could offer someone like Matt Allen, 50 FV, but I just don’t know if that would make sense for them at the moment? Any other thoughts on Frazier, Justin?

JV – Yeah, we’ve both been preaching the “helium” 45+ or 45 prospects, and not just for Adam Frazier. We both have these types, but for most of the guys we’ve talked about here. This is where scouting and metrics and art come together, and I think this is the path that Cherington and his staff take. It’s what we’ve seen in every trade he’s made since wearing a Pirate’s hat, from Peguero and Malone to Makial Escotto, Miguel Yajurie, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Roansy Contreras. 

With that said, a team I love for an Adam Frazier trade is the San Francisco Giants. Tim Benz has said they are a team he’s heard a lot about for the Buccos All-Star, and it works. The Giants have an underrated system and they are set up perfectly to acquire him with three names that they can use as the main piece for Adam.  We’ve talked so much about Adam Frazier, and sure they could get a little more for him than we originally said, but for now I will stay close to our projections because I think that’s where we land for Adam Frazier.

Patrick Bailey–C–ETA: 2022–45+ FV($8M)

We’ve seen this name here before and it just makes too much sense not to go to it again. In general we will see and hear a lot of the same teams and names over the next few weeks. C is a need and Bailey has the feel of Jason Varitek. His bat has some pop and he’s solid behind the dish. If the bat develops, he has All-Star written all over him. 

Tristan Beck–SP–ETA: 2022–45 FV ($4M)

When Beck came out of high school he topped out at 92 MPH. He’s since seen a bump to 95. The curveball is the best offering here with a 55 FV grade. The pitch that’s improved the most? His change, whis is also a 55 FV grade. Tristan has a 4 pitch mix with a 50 FV fastball. He is projected to be a 4-5 starter.

PJ Hilson–CF–ETA: 2023– 40 FV($2M)

Hilson is really raw and a lot of development will be needed here, but if he develops he has a chance to be a unicorn. A true CF with a 70 grade speed and arm, and good glove to go with it. Where he’s a unicorn is he has a lot of power potential if he can find his hit tool, an FV 35. This would be a good lottery ticket for the Pirates. 

This package is a little bigger than the last one I built and that’s because we’ve heard those rumors and it seems the market has developed for Cherington to get a little more. 

JB – With RichRod, the Blue Jays have a strong farm system and have the ability to move the needle to get a Rodriguez deal done. The best part about trading with Toronto, is that Cherington and Sanders know that system so well. 

We provided a range for RichRod in our original evaluation, and I’ll stick with it for this one. 

Miguel Hiraldo — 3B — ETA: 2022 — 45 FV ($6M)

Hiraldo is the main piece of this deal. As Longenhagen writes, “After his dominant 2018 in the DSL, the Blue Jays pushed the physically mature Hiraldo right past the GCL and sent him to the Appy League at age 18; there he hit .300/.348/.481 with 28 extra-base hits in 56 games. He has a short, high-effort swing, and his hands load high and take a curt, direct path to the ball with plus bat speed that Hiraldo generates with effort and violence.”

With 50 or 55s on his hit/power tools, Hiraldo is a bat first player that can be plugged into a lineup and produce, and he has the talent and potential to fast-track through the minors. 

Riley Adams — C — ETA: 2021 — 40 FV ($2M)

Toronto has a glut of catching prospects with Kirk and fast-rising Moreno knocking on the door, so Adams can be expendable in this scenario. He’s a bigger, slower catching prospect with difficulty getting out of his stance to make a throw down to second, but he’s got decent pop in his bat. Longenhagen tracks him as a bat-first, backup but adding potential pieces and depth in the system cannot be seen as a bad thing. 

Adam Kloffenstein — SP — ETA: 2023 — 40 FV ($1M)

If you’ll allow me to plagiarize myself (as I will shoehorn Kloffenstein into a lot of trades because I like the potential): “This is a scenario where Toronto essentially throws in the towel on Kloffenstein.  He’s a former overslot 3rd round selection in Cherington’s penultimate season with the Blue Jays.  He’s a monster, standing 6’5 and weighing in at 243 pounds with a bulldog mentality.  However, the velos do not match the profile and Longenhagen at FG projects him to be a middle reliever or a groundball inducing #4 starter.  Adding a pitcher like Kloffenstein would be a strong piece for Pittsburgh in that he could provide depth/insurance for the young guns that are progressing through the system or he could add value as a future reliever.”

Parting Shots:

JB – The MLB stars did not align for our first week of chasing rumors. There are some out there, sure, but we both fully anticipate those rumors to pick up after tomorrow’s All-Star game. 


My final parting shot/thought is that Pittsburgh is in a weird spot with their two most valuable trade assets as they are both controllable. I think that there is a sense that the Pirates could get bamboozled in a trade for their highly valuable assets. But Cherington doesn’t have to sell. He has that as his escape card. Certainly there are risks in holding on to these assets such as a decline in performance or obtaining an injury, but he doesn’t HAVE to make these moves. On the other end of the spectrum, there is talk of compensation that is just otherworldly. I find it highly unlikely that Frazier will pull in a Top-50 prospect, Andrew Vaughn, or multiple Top-100 prospects. Would I love that? Of course, that would be some delicious crow. But I just want to temper expectations here. Frazier is a consistent, versatile and valuable player that can bring back some great pieces. But if Ben doesn’t get fair value or more than fair value, he does not have to do it.  Just don’t expect teams to be throwing in their top prospects just to get a seat at the table. Cherington knows what he’s doing, and he will receive a fair deal for these guys. Anyway, that’s just my $0.02. 

JV – Ben Cherington said in an interview on Sunday, “calls came in steadily all week but I expect it to be quiet for the next three days before picking up later in the week.” Now this is paraphrased as the interview was hours before I started to get this down, but yeah, I fully expect the rumors to pick up as the week progresses. Oddly, I thought we would have heard more RichRod rumors. That we haven’t is surprising to me considering there are a few teams that really, really need bullpen help.

The Pirates Start A Little First Round Shake Up By Selecting Henry Davis

7-11-21 – By Craig Toth

In the days leading up to the MLB Draft it seemed very likely, according to experts and amateurs alike, that Marcelo Mayer would come off the board first for your Pittsburgh Pirates. Other mentioned options included Jack Leiter, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson and one Henry Davis. As we all know by now the choice Ben Cherington and the Pirates made was to bring the hard hitting, power armed Louisville Catcher into the Pittsburgh’s Farm System; which has already brought on criticisms from some for not selecting the best player in the draft, and ultimately trying to save money on the first pick.

Well, if you look at the the majority of the top 10 picks, and even beyond, you can easily see drafting the so-called best player available wasn’t the strategy for many teams; as evident by Mayer dropping to 4th overall, the Orioles once again maximizing value, the Royals going totally off the board with the 39th Ranked Draft Prospect and Watson dropping the whole way down to 16 after being in the conversation as a sleeper for the 1:1.

So, honestly before you get to upset with the pick, and start comparing this kid to failed Pirates 1st Rounders of the past, please remember that Davis was ranked in the Top 5 on most sites, arguably had the best bat in the entire NCAA this past season, has a canon for an arm and took the opportunity in the off-season to work on improving his overall defense; especially as it pertains to his receiving and framing.

Now, I would be lying if I said I didn’t want Mayer, and maybe even Leiter over Davis, however, it’s hard to argue with a .370/.482/.663 slash line, 15 homers and 31 walks versus 24 strikeouts on the season. Power and patience at the plate is not a combination you find very often; plus he sprays the ball all over field. Sure, he may not have been the first choice of many Pirates Fans, but let’s not declare it, and him, a bust just yet.

The MLB Draft resumes tomorrow with the Second Round, and another first pick for the Pirates, which gives you plenty of time to peruse my look at Pittsburgh’s possible selections Beyond The 1:1. And, of course we will be back with plenty more MLB Draft Talk over the next couple of days to keep you updated on all of the Pirates selections in rounds 2 through 20.

Pirates (34-56) Defeat Mets and a Glimpse of the Future Led the Way

The rebuild has been hard to buy into for people solely focused on the MLB squad and today provided a glimpse of some of what’s in store.

21 year old utility player Rodolfo Castro had himself a game. Two homeruns, and a slick snag of a line drive that he alertly turned into a double play.

To this point he’s skipped AAA entirely, called up directly from Altoona and he’s making a case to stay here. Some people get confused when you call someone a utility guy that he is going to be a journeyman, but Castro can play 3B, SS, 2B, and both corner outfield spots well. His bat will make him a starter and his glove will make it easier to find an excuse to keep him out there.

This is the future, and honestly he isn’t even the brightest example, just the first. Now will the Pirates keep him up after the break? Maybe. Maybe they’ll option him down over the break because there is no stoppage at that level this season. But I’ll tell you this, having someone young, energetic and hungry up here as a shining example of what’s to come sounds pretty good to me. Psst. His best position is 2B and we might need that really soon.

Toss in a back end of a back to back jack by Michael Perez after Castro’s first and you have the Pirates offensive story for the game.

Now on the mound, Chase De Jong clearly didn’t have it in the first. Couldn’t hit locations. Couldn’t hit the zone unless it was middle middle and the Mets made him pay smacking him around for 5 runs in the bottom of the first. But Chase would settle down and give up no more as the Bucs chipped away at the lead.

In the 8th inning the Bucs had the bases loaded with one out but Perez was called out of a very borderline call.

Followed by a pinch hitting Ke’Bryan Hayes strike out.

The bottom half brought David Bednar in and he surrendered a couple singles with one out, but he wiggled out of it.

In the top of the ninth, facing the fine Mets closer Edwin Diaz Frazier was retired, and Kevin Newman launched a double to left. He moved over on a Reynolds ground out and John Nogowski singled him in. Gamel followed with another single moving Nogo to third for Wilmer Difo who was 2 for 3 coming in. He would deliver giving the Bucs a 6-5 lead.

The Pirates would of course turn to their closer Richard Rodriguez to try to close this one out.

Final: 6-5 Pirates

News & Notes

  • Here we are, All Star Break and the Draft tonight. Check out Craig’s breakdown.
  • We’ll have more coming your way after the top ten are chosen.
  • Adam Frazier finished his All Star first half with a 3 for 5 performance adding up to 118 hits.
  • Diaz blew his 2nd save of the season
  • John Nogowski had another two hits today bringing his total to 14. For perspective, Michael Perez who homered today only has 16.
  • Wilmer Difo was 3 for 4 today
  • It’s not easy for fans that don’t follow the day to day of prospects development to see the vision, so when a young player comes up and does things like Castro did today, it gives a taste of what could be building in the depths. If I’m the Pirates, I keep him up here and give the fans a taste beyond Hayes and Reynolds. His excitement is infectious and this team could use a jolt.

The Pirates Draft: Beyond The 1:1

Not surprisingly most of the Pirates MLB Draft Discussion has surrounded who General Manager Ben Cherington and Pittsburgh will select with the First Overall Pick; mostly due to the contrast between people who think a high school shortstop is a wasted selection, those who believe Jack Leiter is an organizational changing player, groups who want to draft for need in the form of a catcher and reasonable fans that realize there isn’t a clear cut choice, which may set up the opportunity to save some of the bonus pool money to be used in later rounds with hopes of potentially wooing a higher rated prospect away from a college commitment.

Now, obviously I understand that this is an important decision, but honestly there are around six picks-1) Marcelo Mayer 2) Jack Leiter 3) Henry Davis 4) Jordan Lawler 5) Brady House and 6) Kahlil Watson, in this specific order-that I would be happy to bring into the Pirates Farm System. However, for me, and most of us it, doesn’t end there; still, there is a reason why most outlets only mock until the end of Competitive Balance Round A. It’s just too difficult to predict. Even so, there’s no fun in stopping at that point; plus Cherington may follow a strategy similar to his last draft with the Pirates , which could provide some insight into how he will approach each selection. Or he could go off the board and mess with us all.

During the Pirates 2020 Draft they had six selections, with three coming in the first 44 picks. Starting today and lasting until Tuesday, Pittsburgh has 21 selections, but for time and sanity’s sake I would like to stick to the three picks after the obvious 1:1; 37th in the second round, 64th in Competitive Balance Round B and finally 72nd to lead of the third round, where there is at least some chance of getting one-or at least player that matches a certain profile-correct.

Even so, truthfully, I don’t expect to sniff at any actual projections. Nonetheless, I still feel compelled to mention that as deep as the prep/high high school class is this year-especially as it pertains to shortstops and right handed pitchers-I could see these types fitting into the focus of the Pirates draft. From two way players to pitchers with limited innings, and maybe a couple of young men with versatility at multiple positions in the field.

Second Round (37th)

  • Gavin Williams (RHP)-East Carolina University

  • Gage Jump (LHP)-JSierra Catholic (CA)

  • Lonnie White, Jr. (OF)-Malvern Prep (PA)

  • Joe Mack (C)-Williamsville East (NY)

  • Jackson Baumeister (RHP)-The Bolles (FL)

  • Carson Williams (SS)–Torrey Pines (CA)

Competitive Balance Round B (64th)

  • Thatcher Hurd (RHP)-Mira Costa (CA)

  • Eric Hammond (RHP)-Keller (TX)

  • Brody Brecht (RHP)-Ankeny (IA)

  • Braden Montgomery (OF/RHP)-Madison Central (MS)

Third Round (72nd)

  • Braylon Bishop (OF) Texarkana

  • Ky Bush (LHP)–St. Mary’s University

  • Davis Diaz (SS/C)-Alcalenes (CA)

  • Carter Jenson (C)-Park Hill (MO)

Once again, I know I have spent way too much time on this, like I do every year; watching video, reading draft reports and speaking to scouts and other experts for countless hours when I should be sleeping, or maybe working. However, and no matter what happens, I can’t wait to do the same thing again next season.

Mets Defeat Pirates (33-56) in Game 2 of the DH, Kranick Short but Bullish Outing

7-10-21 – By Gary Morgan

This was a well played ballgame, and sometimes that in and of itself is more bearable than the blowout we watched last night. It’s certainly not the goal but when you watch 14 innings of baseball and can honestly say your team was in it for all 14, you’re having a pretty nice day at the ball yard.

Now, Max Kranick was making his anxiously awaited return to the mound after his perfect debut. His perfection would come to an end rather quickly as Francisco Lindor posited a single into the outfield grass.

Kranick struggled, looked like he was hanging most of his breaking stuff but to his credit, and Jacob Stallings handling of his pitcher allowed him to muscle through 4 innings only giving up 3.

The offense couldn’t get the job done at the end of the day but they stayed close. And Jacob Stallings (who I humbly submit is warming up a bit) did this.

They were in this one til the end but the Mets tacked one more on in the 7th and Diaz was just too much in the bottom half. Bucs fall 4-2 to NY in game two of the twin bill.

Back at it tomorrow afternoon as the Bucs send Chase De Jong to face well, we don’t know it’s this TBA guy, I hear he’s pretty good.

Also be sure to stay tuned tomorrow. Craig Toth will be dropping his big and obviously final Draft Preview. It’s deep, it’s detailed and it’s smart. We can’t wait to share it with you. The draft will start tomorrow night at 7:00 PM on MLB Network and Craig is taking you through the first 4 Bucco Picks. Strap in, this is a big day for the franchise potentially.

To tide you over, check out some things we’ve already put together on the draft.

From Joe Boyd – Draft Deep Dive Using Sim Scores

From Craig Toth – Early look at the field

From Gary Morgan – How does Slotting Work?

News & Notes

  • Max Kranick had a tough game tonight but the way he fought though adversity to keep it close shows his maturity. Who knows how this rotation develops, even when, ok if, Anderson is traded you have to figure Brault is just about there. Max has if nothing else made himself part of the conversation going forward.
  • Jacob Stallings’ father and former Pitt Head Basketball Coach Kevin Stallings was in attendance tonight in NY, I bet it never gets old seeing your kid pop one no matter how old they get. Speaking of, that homerun (7) is Jake’s career high and he has half a season to go. He’s also already surpassed the most innings he’s ever caught at this level in a season.
  • I’ve written it before but hey, just in case. My official prediction is Marcello Mayer with the first overall pick.
  • Kevin Newman bunted for a single early in the contest and advanced to third on a sharp single by Hayes and was driven in by Reynolds. This is a perfect example of how Newman can help this team, but he simply has to improve his OBA. He’s making contact but it isn’t leading to getting on often enough

Pirates (33-55) Take Game 1 of the DH Behind Strong Performance by Tyler Anderson

7-10-21 – By Gary Morgan

Tyler Anderson wasn’t lights out today.

There were moments when you felt the Mets were going to crack through, but through five innings Tyler Anderson had given up two runs and hit a homerun of his own to give his club the lead 3-2.

In the 4th inning the Pirates and John Nogowski gave the team the lead with one swing of the bat from the big man.

And hey, a pitcher jacks one I’m making you watch it.

Now, after five innings, Tyler was at 65 pitches and for some reason they pulled him from the game. Granted it was a 3-2 lead. Granted there were a bunch of righty’s coming up. But Anderson was really settled in and looked easily capable of finishing this one.

To me this was a confusing move.

But Bryan Reynolds who was earlier robbed of a homerun…

Made amends for the robbery.

I mean why participate in the home run derby when that’s just the regular season for you?

They would tack on one more in the 7th as Jared Oliva singled and moved to second before being driven in to make it 6-2 Buccos.

I’ll be back in a couple hours with game two featuring Max Kranick and Tylor Megill.

News & Notes

  • Tyler Anderson was the first Pirates pitcher to hit a homerun since Steven Brault in 2019 vs Colorado
  • John Nogowski has the most hits in his first five games as a Pirates in 108 years. Yup.
  • Suddenly Ben Gamel is scuffling a bit. And before you take that as I’m down on him, this is what he is. Some weeks he’s gonna look like he could carry your offense, others you’ll wonder why he plays baseball. That’s ok for what his role should be.
  • That’s enough for now, I’ll be back with more after game 2.

Development Update: Pirates Prospects Ready to Move Up

From just about the second week of the season you could regularly see people say “He’s Ready” after just about every positive performance from anyone in the system. This would be just about the same as seeing Ben Gamel hit two homeruns in a game and saying he’s ready for the All Star Game.

Player development is not a fast process for the majority of athletes so reacting to every event game in and out sometimes belies the actual targeted area of development. For instance, seeing Oneil Cruz hitting homeruns isn’t a surprise, everyone knew he had game changing power from the time he was scouted on the international scene. In other words, when he hits 3 or 4 in a week but strikes out 10 times in that span of time and the Pirates were specifically looking to get that aspect under control, he may not warrant a promotion.

Now before you freak out and tell me he’s ready and I’m an idiot, I’m just making a point with a familiar name, so calm down.

The mid way point of the MLB season is a very popular time to promote players in the minors. It gives developing players a chance to settle in and hopefully grab a hand hold in the new level and if we’re honest it provides room for drafted players too.

I’m also not going to get deep into who these players are blocked by, but rest assured it factors in to the decisions being made by the franchise.

Enough of me babbling about the why, let’s focus on the who.

From the Bradenton Marauders

Maikol Escotto (SS) – Recently acquired in the Jameson Taillon deal, Maikol is a borderline top 30 prospect in the system and is only 19 years old. In 138 at bats he’s hitting .290 with an .827 OPS. More importantly he has worked on something identified early, taking more professional at bats. He’s gone from 2.1 pitchers per at bat to 4.1, quite a dramatic increase for such a young player and it hasn’t hurt his numbers which is very encouraging.

Endy Rodriguez (C) – Brought in as part of the Joe Musgrove deal from the New York Mets much weight is placed on the Pirates top Catching Prospect and 25th ranked prospect overall. He’s only batting .269 but he’s doing a great job handling the pitching staff and they’ve also tossed him in at first base a bit too. He’s had a bit of trouble with passed balls (4) but at that level both the pitchers and official scorers tend to be suspect a bit. 10 doubles and 7 homeruns lead the charge for the Marauders and at 21 years old he’s hitting for more power than he ever has.

Santiago Florez (P) – In 10 games and 51.1 innings pitched the 21 year old has posted a WHIP of 0.854, with 71 strike outs and 14 walks. The 6′ 5″, 222 pound youngster has really emerged from a group of much bigger names. His control is striking but the pitch mix has very clearly evolved.

Notables – In these sections I’ll be referencing some names who many assumed would move quickly but have struggled a bit or flatly not played enough yet. Not playing enough yet is really going to be the case for most of these, especially the pitchers. Eddy Yean, Nick Garcia, Jared Jones, and Logan Hofmann have all pitched well, just not quite enough. The other players I’d like to mention here are Hudson Head, Sammi Siani and Jase Bowen, all three have hit homeruns, but the average is underwhelming. I like to see a young player get their OPS up over .850 or so before I consider promotion and Head is the only one close at .804.

From the Greensboro Grasshoppers

Michael Burrows – I’m not going to say Burrows came out of nowhere, but let’s just say he wasn’t my top pick for crushing this level. The 21 year old has been simply dominant. Posting a 0.88 WHIP and 62 strike outs in only 43 innings. He’s the Pirates 27th ranked prospect and doesn’t look poised to stay there.

Carmen Mlodzinski – We’re from Pittsburgh so we probably shouldn’t struggle with his name, but I have a feeling we’ll be saying it more and more so let’s learn to pronounce it. Mo-jin-ski phonetically speaking, learn it, because the 22 year old 2020 draft pick has put together a sincerely solid first season of pro ball so far. A WHIP of 0.96 with 51 strike outs in 37.1 innings pitched. More importantly, his pitch mix is simply evolved.

Quinn Priester – The 20 year old is the Pirates number 2 overall prospect and could end this season as Baseball America’s number one overall pitching prospect. His strikeout numbers aren’t as high as you’d assume with 40 in 43 innings pitched and his WHIP sits at 1.35. This is where numbers don’t tell the entire story, most of this season has been about refining pitches, especially his changeup and curveball. It’s easy to forget he’s primarily self taught, so the fact he’s taking to hands on pro instruction is encouraging. I think it would be wise to get him to AA this season, but I could just as easily see them leave him in High A to finish strong and start fresh in 2022.

Matthew Frazier – The 23 year old outfielder has always hit, but not like this. In 220 at bats this season he’s hitting .327 with 14 home runs and an OPS of .990. I’d like to see him draw a few more walks but it’s hard to pick him apart. His performance and age make a strong case for promotion and yes the Altoona Roller Coaster will meet a new enemy very soon.

Notables – There are a bunch here, and some have been held back by injury, others still not totally ready and could use a little more soak time. I’m going to stick with guys you probably hear about a ton. Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Aaron Shackelford, Tanaj Thomas, Lolo Sanchez and Cameron Junker. The most notable of, well, the notables is obviously Nick Gonzales, his injury really ate into the progress he could make this season. None of these guys have underperformed, just maybe not done enough or had enough playing time to warrant promotions in season. Peguero has played excellent defense and shown flashes at the plate, but consistency has been elusive.

From the Altoona Curve

Roansy Contreras – This of course has to mean he isn’t injured badly. His non-ligament forearm soreness should it not be serious won’t prevent a promotion and the All Star Futures selection has earned all the accolades he’s received thus far. He’s simply not being challenged in AA. A WHIP of 0.91 with 65 strikeouts in 46 innings pitched. At 21 years old, Roansy is actually ahead of schedule a bit and the much increased velocity while maintaining control of his entire arsenal has impressed scouts all around the country.

Mason Martin – In 194 at bats Mason has crushed the ball, bashing 16 home runs and 14 doubles with a .273 average. If there is reason for concern it has to do with his very out of whack SO to BB ratio. 71 Ks and 14 walks will only get worse as he moves up. Now the good news is this is a relatively new issue for Mason, he’s usually kept that ratio much closer and I just can’t see that one factor alone preventing him from moving up.

Oneil Cruz – He was borderline AAA placement heading into the season but they wanted him to work on some aspects of his swing. Hitting a robust .289 with 9 home runs and 10 doubles, Cruz has done everything the team has asked minus cutting down on strike outs.

Cal Mitchell – The 22 year old 2017 draft pick might just be the Pirates best outfield prospect anywhere near the show, and yes I’ve heard of Travis Swaggerty. In 184 at bats he’s only struck out 37 times while hitting 9 homeruns and 11 doubles. Cal has gone from wishful thinking to someone who has to be in the plans for the Pirates in the near term.

Travis MacGregor – The 23 year old pitcher has started most games for the Pirates but I see him as a potential mainstay in the bullpen when he reaches MLB, it’s in that spirit I see him earning a promotion this year. His stuff plays and if they allow him to transition fully to the bullpen his ascension will only speed up.

Notables – Canaan Smith-Njigba is promising but he fell into a deep slump, one that he recently started emerging from, but in these leagues it’s always more about consistency than any other factor, and I can’t make a case he’s been that. Omar Cruz has been impressive, but he was already arguably promoted quickly to this point, I see them giving him the season before moving him forward. A lefty starter is just too important to rush. Yerry De Los Santos was well on his way before falling to injury, but look for his name as we head into 2022. Ji-hwan Bae just simply hasn’t played enough. He does have nearly 600 MiLB at bats under his belt so you could see him get a promotion on a cumulative basis but it won’t be because of what he’s done this season. The last one I’ll mention here is Brendt Citta, the outfielder has put up some nice numbers and at 24 it’s kind of time to go or get off the pot.

From the Indianapolis Indians

Before I dig into this one, let’s focus on players I think could earn a promotion and stick because obviously they will shuffle players up and down all season. I’m also not going to reference players like Dee Strange Gordon or Shelby Miller, those players aren’t in the spirit of what we’re discussing here.

Braeden Ogle – The 23 year old lefty reliever has really come along. Posting a WHIP of 1.48 with 36 strike outs in 26.1 innings pitched he’s gained control of some of his breaking stuff to compliment his plus fastball.

Shea Spitzbarth – My partner Craig has loved him from the moment the Pirates picked him up, and he’s done nothing to convince me Craig was nuts. In 23.1 innings this season he’s posted a WHIP of 0.99 and a 0.77 ERA. There is every reason to expect Shea will be a part of the Pirates bullpen later this season and if not next year for sure.

Notables – Travis Swaggerty lost his entire season save a few contests early on, but he’s worth mentioning because I see no way he wouldn’t have been in MLB by now should he have remained on the field. Arguably the most notable thing about this group is how few actual impact players are here. This is typical of a rebuild as young players are often acquired and it takes some time to get them a step away from MLB.

In Closing

Help is coming, it just takes some time. I have no problem with people taking a stab at who will play where in whatever year you want to target, but to use a phrase from my youth, sh** happens. AAA is filled with retreads, failed prospects, other teams failed prospects and guys looking for a last shot at the show. That’s not atypical as I’ve just mentioned, but you can expect it to start to change. When and if Rodolfo Castro is sent back down, I hope it’s to AAA rather than AA because he was in line for a promotion by at least a level anyway.

I think what I’ve learned from this study of the system is that so far the development system is bearing fruit. There is no shortage of players pushing for promotion and that isn’t something I could say every season.

If I missed someone you’re keeping your eye on, it doesn’t mean I think they stink or have no future, it just means I don’t see them moving up a level at this time. The journey from draft to MLB is unlike any other sport in this way. Guys can play the equivalent to an entire career before actually making the show.