Frequently Asked Pirates Questions. Answered

There was a time when I had time to sit down and seriously try to answer as many reader questions as possible. Oh, I don’t mean things like why is Erik Gonzalez playing first base or why can’t the Pirates just cut Polanco, those are quick and easy. I’m talking about the questions that take more thought and explanation to do them justice.

If you’re a person who has been invested fully in the process some of this is going to be obvious or even redundant, but we must remember not everyone has been on the train the entire time and leaving them behind or getting frustrated isn’t going to help.

So let’s tackle a couple of these and see if we can’t explain and expand a bit on some subjects that many have asked about. If yinz like this maybe I’ll do this again.

Explain How the Team Gets Better by Moving Good Players Like Frazier

First of all, this is normally asked in a non serious way. Most of the people remember trading Andrew McCutchen is how the team acquired Bryan Reynolds so it’s not a stretch to say they are as we speak seeing why teams do it.

On occasion though, this question is asked by what I consider to be top level fans, meaning they watch the MLB club fairly regularly and don’t get involved in prospect hauls, or have a real understanding of team control. In that case the question is pretty genuine and in an attempt to be fair let me take a crack.

Depending on what stage of building your team is in, the return you’re looking for is determined. And it’s really more about what stage your GM thinks the team is in.

For instance, when the Pirates traded Gerrit Cole he still had two years of team control, meaning he had two years left in which all the team had to do was take him to arbitration and he’d be a Pirate. They knew they weren’t going to sign him, there are only about 6 teams in MLB who could afford that 300 million dollar price tag.

Now Neal Huntington thought even without their Ace pitcher the Pirates were in a stage where they needed to get MLB or close to MLB level players back. So he targeted that commodity. He brought back a reliever named Michael Feliz, an OF prospect named Jason Martin (who the team believed to be a better prospect than Reynolds), a Starting pitcher named Joe Musgrove who couldn’t crack Houston’s starting 5 and Colin Moran, a third baseman with potential and pedigree.

This is what I like to call a “Floor Trade” Meaning the floor for all four of these guys was close to replacement level and they were all ready or very close to ready to jump in.

What you see Cherington doing are “Ceiling Trades” in other words he is acquiring players for the most part who have high ceilings but much less established floors. They could be great, but there is still a big possibility that they simply don’t pan out.

Now, on the surface, it sounds like Neal’s plan was better right?

Problem is, Neal was masking a problem, the Pirates had next to no talent in their own system close to ready to make the jump to the majors, the Gerrit Cole deal and the return he got was a direct answer to that issue. Trying to mask that by plugging holes at that level.

Now turn to a Cherington deal. Starling Marte to Arizona for Liover Peguero, Brennan Malone and International Pool room. Peguero and Malone have much higher ceilings than any of the players in the Cole deal, but they also are much further away. It’s possible only one of them ever gets here, but it’s also possible that one will be an actual difference maker as opposed to pretty good.

The methods speak to the timelines of each GM and you’ll see them change this philosophy when needed. For instance when the window starts to open, you’ll see Cherington call on some of his high end prospect talent to go get pieces he needs to plug holes he couldn’t develop. Maybe that’s how they get a piece for the rotation, or that catcher we all know they need.

Neal tried to do this too, problem was he gave way too much of it for a player he was in love with from his time in Cleveland, yup, Chris Archer.

Let’s move to today.

Why trade Adam Frazier, he’s awesome? We can’t get better if every time a player gets good we trade them right?

Well, Adam is 29, has one more year of team control. The Pirates could extend him but from Adam’s perspective he knows this is the only time in his career he’ll be able to get a contract with any length, meaning 4-5 seasons. The Pirates could afford him, and I think he’d probably be open to signing here, thing is, do you believe Frazier will be playing like this when he’s 34, how about 35? Maybe, but they know for sure he hasn’t ever played like this before. The packages of prospects that teams will offer for him coupled with that simple fact will make it very difficult to decide not to move him.

This team that you’re watching right now, no, they aren’t getting better. This team will take a hit, but they also might just be laying the foundation for being really good or more importantly sustainable by making it.

You’ve watched this team, they aren’t a stellar Adam Frazier away from being good and the difference makers already in the system aren’t really going to get here before 2022 (you know what would be Frazier’s last year of team control) and I stress here, they’ll just START to get here in 2022.

If this happened in say 2024 they probably hold onto a player like Frazier and let him leave via free agency instead as they try to win. You can get a comp pick for such a move. What can you get with a comp pick? Well, you’ve met Mr. Hayes right?

Bottom line, to get the type of prospects this team is looking for you have to trade actual players other teams want, meaning you probably want them too. Nobody is giving you a high ceiling guy for Erik Gonzalez.

Why Does Anything Matter if Nutting is Still the Owner?

Hoo Boy, this one is loaded but I get this at least once a day.

First of all, I don’t trust Nutting to do much more than he ever has. Doesn’t mean he won’t, doesn’t mean he’s currently lying or that he hasn’t learned a lesson from his last management group. Just means I don’t trust him. Trust is earned.

Now, why does it matter? Cherington.

His method for this build as I just explained in the previous answer is why I’m able to at least somewhat push Bob to the background.

Cherington’s method is to stack prospects. Essentially, remember how I said one of Malone and Peguero could very well never make the show? Well, what he’s trying to do is have 7 Peguero’s and 8 Malone’s tossed in with a Gonzales and a Cruz and a few Priester’s to give the Pirates a much better chance of internally developing just about everything they’ll need to be in the conversation.

The more he adds, the better the odds.

Instead of making a couple moves and going all in on 22 black, he’s making a bunch of moves and trying to make the bet more like all in on red, or even.

Reality dictates he’ll need Bob to throw in on an extension of two, might even need him to support paying for that piece they need and couldn’t develop like a catcher who rakes.

Both are things Nutting has supported in the past so it’s not unreasonable to expect he’d again do so.

Another reason to allow yourself to let go a bit is that Cherington isn’t just lining up for a window that closes, he’s bringing in talent at all levels and that will lead to an environment where hopefully they can move players strategically and replace them with upcoming prospects.

These are all words. A written down way to explain the concept, but it still has to work.

The reason it matters at least to me, what he’s building won’t require a financial investment of any note before at least 2024 and even that would be extensions for Reynolds and maybe Hayes.

None of this means I am in lockstep with how they’re handling the entire operation. I’ve been a proponent of bringing in real MLB talent to fill current holes while they develop prospects, they would provide even more opportunity to bring in even more possibilities, and the only real excuse for not doing so is to remain bad enough to get into the top ten of the draft board for a stretch of years.

I mean lets face it, that’s what we’re watching.

The job isn’t done. Colin Moran will be in the same spot as Frazier next season. We’ll have the same conversations. Should we extend him or move him. Why would we want to move a good player for prospects? How can we get better if we trade all our good players?

Well, Colin is only going to be so good, and his age and control are working against him, and the Pirates. Next season Mason Martin will probably be in AAA playing first base, by mid season there will be a good chance people want to see him up here anyway, so maybe in that regard it’s a slightly different conversation. there is nobody to replace Frazier close to ready beside Cole Tucker and let’s face it, he’s been underwhelming.

Regardless, that’s the idea. Every player that gets moved will have gone through all these same questions and sometimes they are going to take a step back to improve the chances of stepping forward.

I’ve been a Pirates fan since the mid 80’s, so when you say they’re always telling us to look to the future, I 100% know what you mean. I’ve been here watching too. The difference right now is I’ve never seen this level of talent brought in with the potential they have. Having 5 of MLB’s Top 100 and about to add another isn’t an accident. 3 of those five being brought in by this GM isn’t an accident.

I always tell people if they need to look away, I get it, but I figure if you’re asking me you are cracking your own window to belief.

Let’s see how this plays and if it’s something you guys like I’ll try to do these more often. You can also always comment on the piece on the site to ask more too. We don’t do this just to make people fully invested in the process happy, we want to provide every type of Pirates fan with as much information as they want to see.

We’re doing the work, help us make sure it’s the right work.

Pirates (29-48) Blanked by Rockies 2-0 in an Uneventful Contest

Tyler Anderson pitched his requisite five innings, and gave up two runs in the process. Now one would think in Colorado that would be good enough to give your team a chance, but instead these teams both were largely silent on the day.

The Rockies countered with their best bet Kyle Freeland who blanked the Bucs through five innings racking up 7 strikeouts.

Adam Frazier rarely gets a day off and while this one was reportedly planned, it also gives us a window into what we can expect when and if he is dealt. I completely understand and support why he is a trade candidate, but I can’t say I’m excited to watch what it will do to this offense.

I wish I could tell you there were a ton of moments to call back on but really for both teams this was a nothing burger game.

The ninth inning would start out well for the Bucs as Jacob Stallings led off with a single, but the Pirates would not do anything with it.

Shutout in Colorado isn’t a fun start to the series.

Back at it tomorrow with Chase De Jong squaring off against German Marquez at 8:40.

News & Notes

  • In the seventh inning, Chasen Shreve got the third out on a flyball to right. On his way off the field the umpire stopped him to check his uniform for substances. I honestly wonder what good that does after the outs are recorded. Wouldn’t you check before the outing? I get why this is important, I just think the implementation is whacky.
  • Bryan Reynolds extended his hitting streak to 13 games.
  • Colin Moran was hit with a pitch on his hand AGAIN, and tried to stay in the game only to leave after the toss around in between innings. Not sure how many bullets we can avoid here but Moran’s injury plagued season have all but ensured he isn’t going anywhere at this deadline which I’m personally very happy about as they simply don’t have anyone ready to step in.
  • Prior to the game Max Kranick was optioned to AAA and Cody Ponce was called up. The Pirates have a TBA on the books for Thursday’s pitcher and while by MLB rule Kranick has to stay down for 15 days before returning barring an injury he still makes a ton of sense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see someone wind up on the IL with a blister or hamstring if you catch my drift.
  • Kevin Newman had two hits in the ballgame. This doesn’t change the season he’s had but you have to start somewhere.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – 6-28-21

Well, I’m back in the Burgh and on cue my air conditioning broke on just about the hottest day of the year. At least I was able to cool myself down in the bliss of beating the Cardinals 3 out of 4. I hope you’ve all had ample time to calm down after the latest Two Guys Talkin’ Trades that featured the value and packages that might be required to get the Pirates to move Bryan Reynolds. If you really put your thinking cap on this was actually more of a piece about why he’s staying and less about why he should be moved.

1. Youth Movement

Max Kranick is almost 24 years old and he just made his MLB debut yesterday for the Pirates. His performance was literally perfect. I’ve had multiple people ask me why the Pirates held him back or slow walked him in his development.

In 2019 Max pitched in Single A, he, like so many others, missed 2020 due to COVID but in the training site he and the Pirates worked on completely remaking his throwing motion. He and his family took what he learned and at home built a pitching lab complete with Rapsodo device and a homemade mound. He changed his pitch mix and added velocity to his arsenal. Spent a little over 2 months in AA this season then a stop in AAA before ultimately making his debut in St. Louis.

That’s not slow walking a guy. That’s developing a guy.

If you want to be encouraged by exactly what has changed in the system, Max is the poster boy. More than that, he’s a perfect example of why you don’t just look at the depth chart in the minors and project who is and isn’t going to be part of the team in the future. I’ve seen countless “rotations of 2023-2024 and not one had Max in it. In fact despite what we’ve seen this season I’ve seen few if any who had JT Brubaker in it. I should also toss in here, as good as his debut was, there is next to no tape on him and the Cardinals are struggling mightily right now at the plate. That’s not to diminish what he did, it’s to put a bit of pump the brakes in here.

A good development system will do that, it will create an environment where the talent is brought to the forefront, even for guys not drafted in the first round. In fact based on track record, let’s just hope first rounders become more of a guarantee to at least make it to the show, certainly can’t say that’s been there can we?

All that being said, and despite my actual belief that Cody Ponce is also a worthwhile prospect, I can’t understand sending Max down for Ponce. Not after that start. Again, nothing against Ponce, just seems to me you’d want to let Kranick build on success a bit. Guess we’ll have to wait until someone gets asked and hope they answer.

2. Desperately Wanting

The market for Adam Frazier is heating up. He’s now been credibly mentioned as a target for the White Sox, Nationals, Giants, Yankees, Mets, Braves, Red Sox and A’s. Here’s he thing, I’m sure there are even more. Adam isn’t a rental, and that opens the door for teams that aren’t necessarily in win right this second mode too.

I’m not going to do a better job than Justin and Joe did describing the value for Adam, but I can say in the month and a half since they wrote this piece the market has expanded.

Here’s why that matters. The more teams that are in on Adam, the higher the winning package could be. Want to sell something for top asking price, you better get a bidding war going, and every time Adam has another 3 or 4 hit game with a hustling double the fervor grows. He has missing piece written all over him and that can be nothing but good for the Pirates.

I’ll never be happy to see a player like Adam go, I love his game, his attitude and his results, but I can’t ignore just how disproportionate his return could get.

3. Baseball America Top 100 Additions

The new list is out, and the Pirates added another to the top 100 in the form of recently acquired starting pitcher Roansy Contreras. This means the Pirates now have 5 players in Baseball America’s top 100. Cruz at 38, 39 Gonzales, 58 Priester, 87 Peguero and at 99 the newest member of the club, Contreras. Only the Padres with 7, Blue Jays and Marlins with 6 have more.

It’s incredible that the Padres who have acquired more top trade targets than anyone over the last few seasons are still in this position, but it also gives them ample ability to bring in more if they feel they need it.

Chances are the Pirates will be adding another to this list after the draft in a couple weeks but so will a few other clubs so this could be a fleeting entry to the list for Roansy, and it won’t have anything to do with his performance. It also won’t change the very real talent he is.

For those scoring at home, that’s three Pirates prospects Ben Cherington has either drafted or acquired via trade out of the five the Bucs have on the list. Now, these are just numbers, no reflection on how long it will take to make the big leagues or guarantees they pan out after all Mitch Keller was number 7 on this list just a couple years ago, but it stands to reason the more you have the better chance you have of grooming a special player.

Be excited, it’s ok.

4. Raise It!

I started covering the Pirates at a weird time. It was toward the end of 2019 and my first two months were largely spent calling for the owner’s head or that he would fire everyone, preferably both. Well, I got one.

What happens as you build an audience is that you discover there are X amount of people who are always engaged, and I truly mean always. When the team wins, even marginal runs like the 6-3 stretch they’re currently on you see a big uptick in interest, when they go on a 10 game losing streak the numbers dwindle to the precious few diehards I mentioned.

Now, I’m just a blogger, so I clearly am not alone a barometer for interest in this club but I do think proportionally this is in general how the team is followed. Some people like the journey, some people just want the destination. I completely get it.

What I can say is winning is good for business, both mine and the team’s.

Folks often assume the Pirates being in full rebuild mode was an easy sell by Ben Cherington and Travis Williams to Bob Nutting, but without watching what half measures and short sighted approaches by the previous regime I’m quite sure he doesn’t go for it. He isn’t a baseball guy, couldn’t evaluate a player to save his life, but even he understands the ebbs and flows of how winning effects a fan base. He’s saving money right now, but he’s also losing it in the process.

Rebuilding is a risk, even if your GM has done it successfully in the past. I recommended before the season that the team should bring in more valuable free agents. Now I recommended that based on creating more assets to move so they could accelerate the process potentially, but this could also help with winning a bit more.

There is no such thing as a painless process here, and listen, I don’t trust this owner any more than you do, but they could make it easier on themselves, with an investment of even 20 million more.

Next season I want to see less Ka’ai Tom/Anthony Alford/Dustin Fowler/Ildemaro Vargas, and more Ben Gamel/Tyler Anderson types. It’s time to start letting this young core experience some success on a more regular basis, and that just won’t happen if for the third straight season this team acts like the entire season is Spring Training. That goes for the coach as well, I’d like to think in year three we could evaluate his performance sans the excuse he doesn’t have MLB options.

If they want to take a crack at young players who haven’t had a chance, make them some of the ones already here like Tucker, Kramer, Sharpe, Oliva.

5. Head Into the Break Strong

The Pirates have the Rockies, Brewers, Braves and Mets heading into the All Star Break and they have a good shot to take advantage of a weak Rockies club a nicked up Brewers squad and two underachieving unites in Atlanta and NY.

The record doesn’t matter, but again, winning matters for the players you plan on having around when it does.

The Pirates aren’t the worst team in baseball, and when healthy they have the ability to show that much more often. I don’t see this club threatening .500 again this year but that doesn’t mean they have to compete for the number one pick again, in fact I think that’s growing more out of sight as the days go by.

The most likely trades are Adam Frazier, Richard Rodriguez and Tyler Anderson the most irreplaceable being Frazier. They aren’t going to get better this season for that one reason above all else, but it also won’t make them close to as bad as Arizona.

Two Guys Talking Trades with Joe Boyd and Justin Verno – Bryan Reynolds, the Forbidden Fruit

Justin Verno- Joe, when we presented how we wanted to approach these articles with Gary, we kicked around the players we wanted to evaluate, who would be a realistic trade candidate, and who we viewed as a stretch. In the end we decided that Bryan Reynolds is a guy we would NOT include in this series. I think that is the first thing we need to put out there.

Joe Boyd – Yep, I think we all agreed that Reynolds was not going to move.  He’s playing awesome ball and he’s under control through 2024.  The issue, however, is that other outlets are throwing his name in hypothetical trades.  Just this week, Jim Bowden and David O’Brien over at The Athletic ($ Subscription Required) offered up a deal for Reynolds (and RichRod!) that was truly paltry.  So Justin and I chatted about the idea of figuring out Reynolds value and even throwing together packages that might get the deal done. Spoiler alert, it would take an absolutely massive package of players/prospects to get a deal done.  Are there teams out there that feel they are a star outfielder away from being a World Series contender? Potentially, but they also have to have the goods on the farm, and be willing to part with several elite prospects to get Reynolds. It’s going to be hard to justify moving Reynolds now, but we wanted to showcase how unlikely that would be at this point. 

JV- Oddly, Joe, I think this exercise will be fun. Nothing is better than building a package that makes fans blood boil, and both Pirate fans and fans of the other teams are going to hate these packages. We will make no one happy here. We will get plenty of, “you’re crazy! Our GM will never give that up for Reynolds,” from the other side. And even more, “You guys are idiots, Cherington isn’t moving Reynolds,” from our side. 

And you know what Bucco fans? We agree Reynolds isn’t going anywhere, but where’s the fun in that?  

On June 4th, 1953, then Bucs manager Branch Rickey traded the face of the franchise, Ralph Kiner, to the Chicago Cubs just before a game, famously telling him, “We finished last with you, we can finish last without you.” So, Joe, let’s do our best Branch Rickey impression!

JB – Ha, sounds like Rickey was lucky that there wasn’t any instant feedback via Twitter!  Alright, alright.  Let’s get down to brass tacks.  How do you evaluate Bryan Reynolds?

JV-I would love to see what 50’s Twitter would look like though! With Reynolds it bears mentioning that Ben Cherington should be hard at work trying to extend him. A core of Hayes, Reynolds, Bednar and hopefully Keller is a solid starting point moving forward and that really should be the priority here. That frankly is something Cherington can actually use in any negotiations.  Reynolds has been terrific since his emergency call up in 2019, despite a terrible 2020. 

JB – My biggest issues w/ Reynolds from an eval standpoint are that he had a dismal 2020 and he’s Super 2 eligible.  The former can be waived off to some degree.  If a team is adamant to depress Reynolds’ value because of 2020 or they point to a projection system like ZiPS being very bearish on him in the future, then Cherington just hangs up.  If I’m Cherington, I point to 2019 and 2021 as the true player that you would receive.  I think when I submit my final Surplus Value for Reynolds, you’ll be surprised by how high it is, but mind you, he’s under control for 4.5 years and if teams want to include that trough last season, then they can just wait until he has a longer track record.  That’s fine.  The latter creates a minor issue from our perspective when we want to put a salary to the player.  I think I reference TPOP every iteration of this article, but they handle how we’ll evaluate Reynolds’ salary, as well.  Going off of TPOP’s research, we can expect the arbitration values for 2022-2025 to be 18%, 33%, 50%, and 69% of Reynolds value, respectively.  So let’s try to narrow down that projection of total value so we can just apply that to those estimates. 

Reynolds has already accrued 2.6 WAR this season, and Fangraphs projects that he’ll tack on another 1.7 WAR to close the season at 4.3 WAR.  In a normal evaluation, I would look to ZiPS here for 2022 and 2023, but as I mentioned earlier, they are way too low on Reynolds at the moment. Until they do a mid-season refresh, I cannot in good faith utilize those values here. This is where I think Cherington could push to say he’s a 4+ WAR player, but I think that price tag would be prohibitive.  Let’s cut to the end of this hypothetical phone negotiation and settle on Reynolds being a 3-3.5 WAR per season player.  If we plug that value into the arbitration estimates we get a total salary of $50.6M. So where do we stand on a valuation for Reynolds?

Justin, what I like about this valuation is that it is actually not THAT steep.  By that, I mean there is a potential that a team could take a swing at this type of value.  I do think it is probably too rich for most, but at least we are not looking at triple digits.  So if you agree with that value, what type of package makes sense in your mind?

JV- The impressive thing with Reynolds when considering that 2020 season is his lifetime slash line is still a healthy 285/361/480  OPS of 842. His 162 game averages-

285/361/481 OPS 842   2B-40 3B-3  HR-22  OPS +-124. Now I get no one plays 162 games a year, but these are excellent numbers, and that he only played 134 games in 2019 and still had a WAR of 3.1 is also impressive. These numbers highlight that Cherington can not sell him at a big discount. He needs all $81.7 million of that value, and I won’t be shocked if he asks for more. 

I imagine a lot of teams could call to check in on Reynolds, but there’s likely only a handful of teams that can pull the trigger. After bouncing back and forth between the Braves and Yankees, two teams that could really use Reynolds, I finally settled on…

Trade partner-San Diego Padres

The Padres have spent a lot over the last two seasons to pass the dreaded Evil Empire West, the LA Dodgers. Reynolds would go a long way there.

MacKenzie Gore–SP–ETA:2021- FV 60 ($60M)

MacKenzie has hit a wall in his development and frankly, the Padres might hang up the phone with the ask. But Cherington has to hold to this ask when it comes to Reynolds. He has a 4 pitch mix all plus grades. FB-60, CB-50, SL-55 and his change grades out at 60. His command needs work and he needs to find that 97 velo again, but the time is right to pry him out of SD arms.

Robert Hasell III–CF–ETA:2024- FV 50($28M)

One of the more polished prep bats in last year’s draft, I think Hasell could be moved to a COF spot. He’s a strider but slacks top end speed. He has some power to develop here, a little stiff in the hips, but with a FV of 50 for raw power, there’s a lot to like with Hassell and the hit tool is there (an FV 55) a good glove(FV 55) He’s off to a solid start slashing 283/683/472 hitting 4 HR in his first 38 games. 

Brandon Valenzuela–C–ETA:2023- FV 40(2M)

Brandon is built differently for a C. He carries a little power and has a solid arm, just don’t ask him to run. His walk rate and K rate are solid, coming in this year at 13% and 24.3% with a 272/362/411. These are encouraging rates and they are in line with his previous seasons showing he has a good feel for the zone. 

This package is an overpay, by about $8 million. But with Gore stuck in Monopoly Jail waiting for his get out of jail card, I feel this is an overpay worth swallowing. Cherington simply can’t settle if he’s going to move B-Rey. It will take some convincing. 

JB – Remember how I mentioned a hypothetical trade that the Athletic suggested?  That was for Reynolds AND RichRod, so in theory the Pirates’ side of the package was $81M + $10M.  The return that Atlanta provided didn’t even scratch $50M.  The Pirates are not in any rush to move Reynolds, so a deal like that should just be scoffed at and Cherington can move along to the next, more serious conversation.  Justin’s trade includes on of the top pitching prospects in the game, I think that that would catch Cherington’s attention.

My big issue with a player, like Reynolds, that has such a high valuation is scarcity of comparable prospect values.  When talking Frazier or RichRod, whose values were both around $15M, there are ample prospects and prospect packages that can equal that value and all teams have that type of package available to make a deal for a player of that magnitude.  For Reynolds? You’re looking at a package around a 65-grade prospect PLUS a 50-grade prospect to hit the necessary threshold to pull the trigger.  According to Fangraphs, there is exactly two prospects that meet or exceed the 65-Grade in all of baseball.  So rather than build a quality over quantity package, we may have to start throwing players in to make the values work.

Trade Partner:  New York Mets

Of contenders that may need an outfield bat and line up rather well on the farm, the Mets seem to fit the best for me.  They are obviously in a win-now mode and have a window that properly would align with Reynolds.  Adding a switch-hitting, outfield-versatile player would pair nicely with Francisco Lindor.

The trade package:

Francisco Alvarez — C — ETA: 2023 — 55 FV ($46M)

I first heard Alavarez’s name during the Starling Marte rumors in 2019.  Back then he was pretty unknown and his value was significantly lower.  Since then he has exploded on to the prospect scene and his valuation is carried by his bat.  Scouts seem to love his ability to hit.  He’s hit everywhere he’s been and he’s a major riser up prospect boards recently. 

Matthew Allen — SP  — ETA: 2023 — 50 FV ($21M)

The Mets saved some bonus money in the 2019 draft to sign Allen as an overslot 3rd rounder and it looks to be paying off.  He’s the top arm in the system and regularly sits in the mid-90s on his velos.  Longenhagen notes that he’s cleaned up his frame which could make his delivery more repeatable.  He notes a “rainbow” curve, but has the feel to develop a slider if necessary. 

Bret Baty — 3B — ETA: 2023 — 45+ FV ($8M)

A massive player with massive power potential, Baty certainly has first base risk due to his size, but adding a bat of this magnitude would be worth the risk.  Fangraphs notes that he has, at least for now, kept his body in check and that could maybe increase the chances he stays at third, but it’s a corner infield profile regardless.  

Pete Crow-Armstrong  — CF — ETA: 2025 — 45 FV ($6M)

The final piece is a potential gold-glove centerfielder.  PCA has a 70-grade fielding tool and a 60-grade speed/running tool. He has a ton of trouble with high heat which could limit his offensive profile, however. 
The haul for Reynolds would be immense, and I’m still not sure Cherington makes the deal.  But look at it from the Mets’ GM’s perspective.  Are you willing to give up this much capital for Reynolds?  That’s your #1, #3, #5, and #6 prospects for one player.  It’s not apples-to-apples, but that would be a package of Priester, Nick Gonzales, Brennan Malone, and Hudson Head.  The Pirates’ braintrust made a move like this to obtain Chris Archer and it cost them their jobs.  It was a lesson learned across the sport.  Giving up so much of your future is too great a risk.  And providing enough value to get Cherington to sign off puts you in that career-threatening territory.

Conclusion: 

One last thing on trading Reynolds, I think that Cherington will pick up the phone, but he is not inclined to make a deal just to make a deal.  And I just find it too difficult to find a farm with enough value to make it work.  Just because Reynolds is not a household name, does not mean that teams can acquire him at a discount.  And just because the Pirates are in a rebuild does not mean that the assets are available at a discount.  

One thing I would not mind exploring, Justin.  We are all about roster construction here at Two Guys Talkin’ Trades, so maybe we can look at extending Bryan?  See what we each think that that might look like?

JV-Yeah, and since neither of us thinks that a GM will part with either of the packages we suggested, the obvious route that Nutting and Cherington should be considering is extending Reynolds. This is something that Nutting has done with varying results, but that shouldn’t at all dissuade him. Inking Reynolds for 2-3 years beyond his control is still well worth the gamble and exactly how a small market team needs to operate. 

A quick note on my package before we get into the extension math here… The Bucs have no 60 FV pitcher for me to compare MacKenzie to, but Hayes is a 60 FV prospect. Hassell  is a 50 FV  like Nick Gonzales. Valenzuela is a 40. How about adding another Rodolfo Castro to the system? 

Now onto the extension…

JB – I noted above that the estimates for Reynolds’ arbitration values would total about $50M.  So I wanted to utilize that as a jumping off point, that comes out to $12.5M Average Annual Value (AAV).  But I also want to buy out his first few years of free agency, so with a slight bump to get Reynolds on board I could think that years 5 & 6 at $15 AAV would put the extension at 6/$80M.  

I would assume that an extension would happen in the offseason, so Reynolds would turn 27.  I wanted to look at similar contracts that were doled out at similar times for similar players.  There are certain players, like Evan Longoria, that had a significant track record of success prior to signing his 6/$100M deal in 2015/16 or even Kyle Seager before he signed his 7/$100M deal in 2014/15.

The two comparisons that I like the most are Jean Segura and Nick Castellanos.  They both may be slightly higher profile players than Reynolds, but both had years that dipped in Wins Above replacement in the years prior to the extension. They each signed extensions in their Year 27 season for AAVs of $14M and $16M, respectively. So I think that a reasonable settlement for both Pittsburgh and Reynolds would be somewhere in between this range and I think an extension the range of 6 years for $86M, or $14.33 AAV, would get this one done.  Agree or disagree, Justin?

JV- Williams and Cherington can make a splash here with a deal like that. This is something that a lot of fans will laugh at, saying “Nutting will never do that,” or “Nutting is too cheap for that.” But this sounds right to me. Considering his age and his overall impact, he carries power to all gaps. He hits for average and gets on base. He’s solid if not spectacular with his glove. He’s not a liability on the bags. All in all, he’s just really good; he’s underrated. This is the kind of player Nutting should want to extend and should make sure the fan base knows he’s doing it. 

And this would not be the first, consider:

-Andrew McCutchen 5 years $51 million with a team option at $14.75 million.

-Starling Marte 6 years $31 million with 2 year team options at $13 million for each year.

-Gregory Polanco 5 years $35 million with 2 team options $12.5M and $13.5M

-Jose Tabata  6 years $37.25M, and I won’t go into his because it was highway robbery that actually was still a bad deal for the Bucs. 

This would be right down the Pirates alley, but I think Nutting has some recruiting to do with Reynolds and Hayes. Nutting needs some wins, publicity wise, and getting Reynolds and Hayes done would absolutely do the trick. Get it done fellas!

Parting shots

JB – The Pirates are in a rebuild. That’s not conjecture, it is clear that the team is trading present day assets for future assets. But that does not mean that you slash the entire roster and take what you can get. In certain instances, you may have a player that is so valuable that you build around him for that next period of contention. I think that we have laid out the facts here that Bryan Reynolds is one of those players. The trade package required to make a deal worth while for Pittsburgh would be so large and so risky for the other team, that it just doesn’t make sense.

What does make sense, however, is trying to get Reynolds to be a foundational piece of this roster for the window of contention. Justin and I have laid out what it might look like to retain Reynolds and that does not look all that intimidating, at least in my opinion. To keep a player of Reynolds’ magnitude in Pittsburgh for under $15M AAV while showing the city that you are committed to improving the roster sends the correct message. Justin alluded to one other pillar that could show true commitment to winning, and that would be signing Hayes to an extension, as well. These are risky moves, they can backfire. But it’s important for a franchise to show this type of commitment to their city to ensure some light at the end of the tunnel. So I’ll conclude by saying that I do not believe Reynolds is going anywhere (at least this year!) and if it were up to me, I would try to lock him into being a Pirate for the foreseeable future. 

JV- Really Joe, I’m not sure what else I can add to that. It’s a perfect summation.  I get that if a team is willing to part with this kind of return it can be tempting, but at some point Nutting has to convey his desire to win a World Series to the fan base and this is a perfect chance to do that. I promise Mr. Nutting, the money that flows in on Hayes and Reynolds jerseys and shirseys in the first 72 hours will make this a well worthy venture. Get. It. Done. 

One thing we should probably bring up here, Joe, is if the team tries to get that extension done and can’t, the Bucs should look at moving Reynolds at some point in the future. What time frame should the GM set there? Do the Pirates have a “deadline” in mind, where if Reynolds isn’t signed by this day, we will look at moving him?

JB – I don’t want to paint either side into a corner here, but I think that this offseason would be the ideal opportunity to get a deal done and next offseason would potentially be that absolute deadline.  And to me, I’m not sure I want to get it done next season.  This offseason would hit before his arbitration years, and he would be 27.  My biggest concern would be aging, and we all know Father Time is undefeated.  If you’re interested, Fangraphs/Hardball Times did an interesting piece on the Age Curve that I try to incorporate into my projections. When extending a player, you want to capture his ascent at a discount and also potentially buy out some free agency years. The perfect past example, Andrew McCutchen, was already mentioned by Justin.  The perfect current example is Ke’Bryan Hayes, not Bryan Reynolds.  

If the Pirates were to try to extend Reynolds beyond that 2022/2023 offseason “deadline”, there would be a higher risk of paying for his decline. So that being said, I think that’ll be my cutoff  that you mention. If that doesn’t happen, and he continues to play at a high level, you may be looking to deal Reynolds in 2023 or 2024. Depending on how the window of contention begins to unfold, this could be a deal that makes or breaks the rebuild.  But that’s an article for the 2023 versions of JB and JV to unpack!

Pirates (29-43) Ride Perfect Debut from Max Kranick to Take 3 of 4 from Red Birds

When you work your way through the arduous journey to become an MLB player, you have to imagine that you picture a complete game, or a walk off hit, you know, something attainable. Max Kranick quite literally couldn’t have done better in his debut for the Bucs today, tossing 5 innings of perfect baseball aided by this insane play Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Take nothing away from Max here, he did a terrific job and was efficient as it gets, throwing 50 pitches in five innings to shut down the Cardinals 15 up and 15 down.

Now, I’ve already seen several mentions that Derek Shelton is a moron for pulling him from the game, but a perfect game or no, starters just don’t come back from an hour and four minute rain delay. He’s not been consistent or smart with all his moves, but this one he comes off clean. If anything, the rain delay saved him from having to make a very unpopular move later should Kranick have kept it going.

Now, pitching is half the story, the bats came to play too.

Frazier, Hayes and Reynolds combined for 7 hits while Ben Gamel and Gregory Polanco popped solo shots to extend the lead.

Duane Underwood replaced Kranick and gave up 2 runs in 3 innings pitched. He looked great or the first two, and struggled in the 8th but wiggled out of it.

Not to act like it took some extra vision to see it but Ben Gamel is far superior to Tom. I see zero reason to play him again. He delivered twice and got robbed once of even more results. Notably from the 8 hole, so it’s not like he was being protected by Reynolds or something.

News & Notes

  • Max Kranick made his debut at the plate before he took the mound today as the Pirates batted around in the first inning. He also receives his first MLB win for his efforts.
  • Adam Frazier just continues to collect hits, 3 more today. He’s a machine at this point and his mechanics make it hard to see it slow down much.
  • The Pirates plan to use a 6 man rotation through the All Star Break and it would seem Kranick has punched his ticket to be part of it.
  • Speaking of the All Star game, Adam Frazier finished 2nd in voting for second base. Shockingly Bryan Reynolds didn’t finish in the top 20 for outfielders. Fortunately fans only make part of the equation, it’s hard to believe with the numbers Bryan has been putting up he won’t get an invite. He’s having a much better season than no fewer than 14 of the names in the top 20 for voting.
  • One of the Pirates runs was a direct result of a Yadier Molina passed ball. The Cardinals didn’t look like the Cardinals in this series, and I’m fine with it.
  • The Pirates are now 6-3 in their last 9. Not a bad rebound from losing 10 in a row not long ago.

The Ka’ai Tom Experience – Proof That Doing Nothing is Sometimes Better than Something

Not all Rule 5 pickups are created equal.

As people struggle to justify or explain why Ka’ai Tom keeps getting playing time or keeps his job for that matter, his Rule 5 status often comes up. I think that defense is crap quite frankly, and has no bearing on this decision.

Luis Oviedo is a Rule 5 pickup, and while he’s on the IL currently, it’s clear why the Pirates would want to limp through this season with his rights fully secured for the franchise. He’s 22 years old, has some tools that just aren’t cheap, needs refined. They can limp through 2021 with him being tucked away in the bullpen largely and next season start him off in the minors where they can really help him turn into what they see him being.

That is not the Ka’ai Tom story.

Tom is a 27 year old, who had one really nice season in AAA. At 27, this isn’t a guy who you hope to tuck away and then send down to help him find his mojo, there simply isn’t time for that in his career. The Bucs have given him over 100 plate appearances to show what he can do, a worthy effort I’d say, and what they’ve found is a guy who in all situations will hunt a walk. He’s batting .145, his OPS is sitting at a subpar .561.

More than numbers, there isn’t one thing about him that’s remarkable. That’s kind of a prerequisite for Rule 5 guys. There has to be one tool you thought was underused, or poorly coached, you could even think there is one that was undiscovered with a tweak or two. What we’ve discovered is Tom will take a professional at bat. Now let’s define that and make sure we understand the difference with him or say Bryan Reynolds.

Both players will take pitches and have a good eye for the strike zone. Both players will take a walk if it’s given to them. Only one will swing the bat when they get a pitch they’re looking for, and his name isn’t Ka’ai.

That’s really the crux here. What was intriguing about Ka’ai was that he hit 23 homeruns in 2019 splitting time between AAA Columbus and AA Akron in the Cleveland Indians system. That’s intriguing, but if you really look at it, a 25 year old should be doing things like that to AAA and AA players. It’s why I don’t get excited when Anthony Alford hits a few bombs in a week of work for Indianapolis.

So no, being a Rule 5 pickup isn’t justification alone as to why he’s still here.

The Pirates went through a period of having almost nobody to patrol the outfield earlier this year. Playing all kind of configurations and looking like a circus act, so at the beginning I understood the need to take a stab on a guy like this. But right now they have Reynolds, Polanco, Evans, Gamel, and Tom. I’d start Reynolds, Evans and Gamel most nights and spell people with Polanco, so again I can’t find a reason there for Tom to be on the club.

Travis Swaggerty and Jared Oliva both have been on IL most of the season, Swaggerty will likely miss the entire campaign, but at this point, why not just drag Alford or Fowler back up here and cut the cord on Tom?

I’m not here to tell you those two will be better, but my god at the very least, Alford would be a sorely needed right handed bat off the bench. If he sucks, and he likely would, so what?

At some point doing nothing is better than watching a guy try and fail night after night. This isn’t anything personal against Tom, I’m sure he’s a nice guy, I’m sure he works hard, I’m just not sure he has any one skill I’d want to see expanded on. I can’t even combo a proclivity for drawing walks and stealing bases, he doesn’t live up to his birth moniker of Blaze there either.

It’s just enough.

This isn’t a guy you’re going to trade for anything worthwhile, in fact the way I see it, it’s not likely he’d be taken back by his original team if the Pirates chose to DFA him. So if there is something they truly think is in there, after I ask for them to review their vision prescription, I’d say, go for it, I think you’re safe and could keep him. Now, I’d rather you didn’t, but if you must I think it’ll be on the table.

Bottom line, Ka’ai Tom, even if he works out is 27 and not likely to be more than a bit role player on an MLB team. On a good MLB team he doesn’t even get to take BP. Let’s move on already.

Wainwright Wrangles The Pirates Yet Again

Ever since Adam Wainwright became a regular in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation back in 2007, he has regularly become a thorn in the side of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their last victory against him on his home turf came back on June 29, 2012, plus he’s the man who ended the Pirates last playoff run with a complete game victory in Game 5 of the 2013 NLDS. It doesn’t get much more defeating than that, and on Saturday afternoon it wasn’t any different.

In six innings of work Wainwright allowed a single run, whike striking out eight Pirates batters walking only one in an extremely efficient 102 pitch outing. On the way to a 3-1 victory over Pittsburgh.

News and Notes

  • JT Brubaker fought his way through this game by never stopping his attack on the zone, throwing 67% of his pitches for strikes. However, the long ball has continued to plague him as he has now given up 13 on the season. Of course it isn’t at a Kyle Hendricks level (19) yet, but still not great.
  • It was nice to see Colin Moran really get ahold of one in the top of the 8th; a strongly hit double that came off the bat at 103.9 mph.
  • Gregory Polanco showed why he is still in the lineup, like it or not, as he blasted his 8th home run of the season off of Wainwright in the top of the 4th for the Pirates lone run.

  • Erik Gonzalez is on another one of his streaks. Over the last 15 games he is batting .306, although his OPS during this time only sits at .686.
  • OK, we can let Tom go. For a time his .400+ OBP in his time with Pittsburgh was intriguing; however, now with only 4 walks and 2 hits in the month of June, it is beyond time to move on.
  • Max Kranick got the word on Wednesday from Indianapolis Indians Pitching Coach Joel Hanrahan that he would be getting the call up to start for the Pirates, while were all made aware of the decision just prior to yesterday’s game. So, far this season Kranick-who was added to the 40-Man in the off-season to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft-has started seven games between AA-Altoona and AAA-Indianapolis; posting a 4.37 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, with 36 strikeouts and only 9 walks in 35 innings. Currently ranked as the Pirates #26 Prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, Kranick is simply making a spot start and most likely will return to AAA, no matter the outcome of the game; however I would expect this to become a pattern for the remainder of season.

The Pirates and Cardinals finish off their four game series this afternoon at 2:15 PM with the aforementioned Max Kranick making his MLB debut for Pittsburgh, while Johan Oviedo (0-3, 4.62 ERA) takes the ball for St. Louis.

Pirates Earn At Least A Series Split

Prior to the start of this series against St. Louis, Pittsburgh had dropped nine straight games to the Red Birds dating back to last year. Sure, it isn’t the same dominating Cardinals team, but there is something to be said about a young, and obviously rebuilding team, coming into Busch Stadium and taking the first two games of the series; the first in easy fashion and the second in a mid-inning give and take battle.

Young guys need to experience success, and not just on the individual level; although that is of the upmost importance. Obviously, this is not going to be a winning season, but winning five out of their last seven-following a ten game losing streak-is also relevant on another level to the players on the field.

This 5-4 victory might not mean much as far the overall standings; however battling with a Division Foe and coming out on top, rather than folding when they lost the lead, says a lot about this team in my book.

News and Notes

  • In spite of not having his best stuff most of the night, Wil Crowe got his first Big League Win. Through four innings Crowe had allowed four runs on eight hits,two of them solo shots, while walking two and only striking out one. Nevertheless, with the lead in the fifth, he put the Cardinals down in order.
  • Jacob Stallings comes through in the “clutch” to provide the Pirates what would be the game winning RBI in the top of the 5th. On the season Stallings is batting just .226, with a .698 OPS; however, he has posted a .313/.389/.563 slash line in close games, where the outcome hangs in the balance.

  • Ke’Bryan has posted three multi-hit games in a row, and has reached base safely in 29 straight games.
  • We keep on talking about Bryan Reynolds with the bat, but what about his play with the glove.

  • It should be noted that the Pirates are at the beginning of a 20 game stretch, without a day off. Pitcher and player usage should be very interesting to watch over the next couple of weeks.
  • Prior to the start of the game the Pirates swung a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers; sending Jandel Gustave and Troy Stokes, Jr to the Brew Crew for recent International Signee, 17 year old Venezuelan Catcher Samuel Escudero. In 15 appearances for the AAA-Indianapolis Indians Gustave had struck out 18 in 15 innings, recorded five saves and touched 100+ on the gun as the team’s presumptive closer. Stokes, Jr. on the other hand had batted .169 for the Indians and .111 in a brief stint for the Pirates. Prior to coming to the Pirates, Stokes, Jr. had last played in the Brewers system in 2019, before being snatched up by the Detroit and then Pittsburgh.

The Pirates and Cardinals have a pretty quick turnaround as they are back at it today at 2:15 PM EST, with JT Brubaker (4-6, 3.77 ERA) on the mound against the epitome of an all time antagonist, Adam Wainwright (5-5, 3.74 ERA).

Pirates Take Advantage Of The Wounded Red Birds

The last time the Pirates faced off against the Cardinals in the middle of May, St. Louis was sitting pretty at 25-18, a top the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Cubs and having taken the last 11 games from their Divisional Opponents. Flash forward a little over a month and the same Cardinals started the day only 9 games ahead of the last place Pirates, with a 36-38 record. Currently the Red Birds have a lineup that ranks near the middle of the pack, however, their pitching staff sits near the bottom at 24th; which is a unwelcome change of pace for the usually reliable hurlers from the Gateway To The West.

In this particular game, these recent hardships were on full display, as Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez walked seven Pirates, struck out only two and allowed five runs on five hits-including a 4th inning three run jack to Bryan Reynolds. His relief didn’t fare much better as former Bucco, Wade LeBlanc gave up two homers of his own to Adam Frazier and Phillip Evans.

On the opposite side of the coin, St. Louis didn’t do themselves any favors either has the only totaled four hits for the game, as the Pirates took the first of four by a score of 8 to 2.

News and Notes

  • Prior to last season’s trade deadline, teams such as the Blue Jays and Braves had shown some interest in Chad Kuhl’s services. At the time Kuhl was sporting a 2.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, but had just gotten himself stretched out to go to a full starters length. This season he has dealt with early season struggles, a stint on the IL with right shoulder discomfort and once again ramping back up. Currently his ERA (5.05) and WHIP (1.41) are obviously nothing to write home about; however in the month of June he has a 3.80 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. With a full month to go until the trade deadline, it is possible that Kuhl could build some of his trade stock back up-which at that time some Pirates Fans will be demanding for extension-or he might slide back down to what it was prior to this year’s injury.
  • Adam Frazier shows he has has some pop in his bat; making a case for starting second baseman in the All-Star Game, while incrementally raising his trade value.

  • Bryan Reynolds is absolutely locked in right now. Obviously he should be in the All-Star Conversation, if that’s your thing; however the competition is a little crowded with the likes of Ronald Acuna, Jr., Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker.

  • There is a pretty big drop off in production after the Pirates top four batters in the lineup, but the most concerning one continues to be Kevin Newman. Batting .205 for the season with a .513 OPS, his defense can only keep him in the lineup on a consistent basis for so long. Unfortunately the options for the Pirates are limited to Erik Gonzalez (.227 AVG and .555 OPS) and Cole Tucker (.231 AVG and .744 OPS in AAA)-with both of these being lower than his last full season with the Indians.
  • Pirates #11 Prospect-according to MLB Pipeline was transitioned to the MiLB 60-Day IL with his elbow/forearm issue. This has been described as a “paper move” as he is still in Florida rehabbing at the same pace.

The Pirates and Cardinals continue their four game series tonight at 8:15 PM EST from Busch Stadium.

For Pittsburgh, Wil Crowe (0-4, 6.42 ERA) takes the mound against Kwang Hyun Kim (1-5, 3.60 ERA) for the Cardinals.

Pirates Drop Second Game To The White Sox As I Return To PNC Park

Yesterday’s Pirates-White Sox matchup marked 1 year 8 months and 26 days since I walked into PNC Park to watch a baseball game; and understandably I didn’t know exactly how my mind was going to react to being back to a place, as well as a situation, I have experienced hundreds of times over the past 20 years. Initially I found myself getting a little bit emotional; however after the first pop of the baseball hitting the catcher’s mitt and the crack off the bat, I felt right at home again. Of course, it took some getting used to in order to be able to judge the trajectory of each hit, the position of each pitch and the jump/reaction of the fielders again after such a long time off. Although, by the top of the second inning I was back in my element; which was just in time to know that the ball was gone as soon as it left Leury Garcia’s bat for a 1-0 White Sox lead, that quickly turned into 2-0 on a Tim Anderson double.

The Pirates would quickly tie it back up an inning later, only to be doubled up again in the fifth. Ke’Bryan Hayes would eventually bring Pittsburgh back within one with a single straight back up the middle, but in the end it wouldn’t be enough as the Buccos fell to the Pale Hose by a score of 4 to 3. Still, I can’t say I was too upset about this one because it just felt so good to be back at the ballpark.

News and Notes

  • Speaking of being able to hear the crack of the bat, as well as seeing things that aren’t always apparent on TV, let’s talk about Ke’Bryan Hayes’ approach at the plate. During each at bat, and definitely every time he made contact, it seemed as if he has slowly reverted back to-at least in these instances-pounding the ball into the ground more than he had been. Now, I am not saying that it isn’t encouraging to see two hits on the day; I simply need to dive into the numbers a bit more for this season; and specifically since he has returned from the IL. (Possible Blog Post Upcoming).

  • Duane Underwood, Jr. and Chris Stratton were downright nasty yesterday; striking out five, walking one and allowing one hit in three combined innings of work.
  • I am still on the play Ben Gamel almost everyday train. In his last 15 games he is slashing .303/.378/.485 with a homer and nine strikeouts to four walks.
  • Hayes, Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds all hit; combining for a 6 for 13 day at the plate.
  • Colin Moran just hasn’t looked the same since returning from the IL; particularly over the last seven games, where he is batting .167 with no homers and five ugly strikeouts in 18 at bats.

Tonight the Pirates travel to St. Louis for a NL Central Division Clash with the Cardinals at 8:15 PM EST.

For Pittsburgh, Chad Kuhl (1-4, 5.66 ERA) takes the mound-looking for his second strong start in a row-against Carlos Martinez (3-8, 6.62 ERA) for the surprising fourth place St. Louis Cardinals.