MLB Draft Deep Dive: Utilizing Sim Scores for Player Comparisons – Joe Boyd

When Joe Boyd came to me with this idea, I was immediately excited to see how he handled it. What he’s done here is provide you with all the logic behind his comps, then give you a league comparison and a Pirates comparison for each of the projected top draft picks this year. Super cool stuff here from Joe, enjoy! – Gary

If you’ve read any of my previous posts with Justin Verno, I don’t think it will shock you to know that I love roster construction. So articles about trades, the draft, free agency, and the like are right up my alley. When it comes to the NFL draft, I try to watch tape on as many players as I can to create my own, personal draft grades.  But for the MLB draft, I have no idea where to start from a scouting perspective. There is no real tape out there, and I have a job that prohibits me from galavanting around the country to see high school games in Oklahoma. 

Continuing on this theme, if you’ve read any of my previous work, you know that I like to cite Fangraphs. There are several reasons for this, 1) Eric Longenhagen (along with Kylie McDaniel and Kevin Goldstein) is excellent, 2) they have been doing it for quite some time (2017 for the purposes of this article, and most importantly 3) their data is extremely accessible. 

For this idea, I wanted to utilize the data from Fangraphs, and try to make these draft prospects a bit more relatable.  My plan? Utilize ‘Sim Scores’ to make player comparisons.  Sim Scores are just a way of comparing a player to a bunch of other players via several inputs, and in my case those are their biographical measurements (height, weight, throwing hand, Right / Left / Switch hitter) and their tools from Fangraphs. Please note that, like baseball, baseball blogging is also somewhat of a copycat league.  Part of my inspiration came from Shaun Newkirk who did this type of project last season. And I’ve created Sim Scores in the data software tool, R, but it was not exactly visually appealing.  Instead, I am utilizing / improving upon a spreadsheet from HW Linwood at CheckSwings.com (now defunct).  I reached out to him/her, but no luck.  I’m writing this article for free, so HW, if you read this and want your cut, you can have 100% of my proceeds.  The original spreadsheet had Fangraphs top 400 prospects from the 2018 season, and only was available for hitters.  I have expanded the depth of prospects to 2017-2021 and I have developed a Pitcher COMPS spreadsheet as well.  And without burying the lede too deeply here, I wanted to provide these spreadsheets to you:

COMPS Hitters V2 **

COMPS Pitchers V1 **

Without getting too into the weeds here, a Z-Score will look at a featured draft player’s input (Height or Hit Tool, for example) and compare it to the pool of players (2300+ for both Hitters and Pitchers) and assign each member of the pool a number based on how far away from the featured player’s input.  The further away from the prospect, the less they are alike.  The Sim Score is simply a sum of all the Z-Scores, so when we are looking for a player most similar to the featured draft player, a lower score is better (think a 2.00-5.00 Sim Score).  Since the Pirates have the first pick, I wanted to highlight the six players that are currently in contention for the pick and look at their most similar “famous” prospect (allow me to use my discretion here!) and the nearest Pirates prospect (I may sneak some cherry picking in here too) as I believe the readers here will easily be able to make that type of connection.  And before we begin, have fun with this.  If you don’t agree… blame Longenhagen or HW!

In no particular order:

Jordan Lawlar, High School Shortstop

Notable COMP: Amed Rosario – 2017 (3.10 Sim Score) — In 2017, Rosario was considered (by Fangraphs) to be the third best prospect in baseball.  In this Sim Score, all of his tools are louder than Lawlar’s, but he’s also 2 years older, at this snapshot in time.  If we look at how Rosario’s three-ish seasons in the majors look so far, he looks like he is a 2.5-3 WAR player with an average bat and solid defensive skills. His ceiling was a 65-grade future value, which I would think is no longer obtainable, but to add a “poor man’s” Rosario at 1.1 would be exciting for the Pirates.  

Pirate COMP: Liover Peguero – 2019 (3.19) — For the Pirates comp, I cheated a smidge.  This is Peguero when he was in the Diamondbacks system.  But nonetheless, adding another Peguero to the mix has to be enticing for Cherington.  Lawlar looks like a potential 5-tool prospect with all of his tools hitting at least the 50-grade threshold and in this comparison, Lawlar’s Hit/Power tools are better than Peguero.  As a peek into the future?  Peguero’s hit tool bumps up from a 50-grade to a 60-grade by 2021.  A good reminder that these grades are a snapshot in time.  And perhaps Lawlar can develop into a stellar, top-10 in baseball prospect. 

Marcelo Mayer, High School Shortstop

Notable COMP: Jarred Kelenic – 2018 (2.42) — I have been hesitant to get on board with Mayer at 1.1 ever since he was deemed the lower ceiling option between him and Lawlar.  Based on Longenhagen’s grades, however, his comps in the sim tool are insane.  At the top it’s Kelenic, but he also closely aligns with Alex Verdugo, Riley Green, George Valera, and Drew Waters.  A prospect of this caliber, playing up the middle, while carrying a 60-potential bat is a piece that is worthy of 1.1.  I would gladly welcome a player that is in the same realm as Kelenic into the Pirates system. 

They obviously play different positions, but Kelenic is the #4 prospect in baseball because of his bat.  Mayer tracks exactly to his potential for his hit and power tools, so I obviously love the idea of adding that type of talent to the farm. 

Pirate COMP: Hudson Head – 2020 (4.42) — Hey! Look at me cheating again.  This is Head while he was still in the Padres system, but he’s a Bucco now. Head also carries that 60-potential hit tool which is such a necessity to stock up in the system.

Henry Davis, Louisville Catcher

Notable COMP: Royce Lewis – 2020 (4.42) — Did you want to see a catcher here? Me too. And it was close!  Ronaldo Hernandez (a personal favorite), Alex Jackson, Luis Campusano, and Tyler Stephenson all fall within the top 20 comps, but outside my threshold noted above of 5.00.  So I decided I would go with the best (notable) comp under 5.00 Sim Score and that was Royce Lewis.  He too is a former #1 overall pick, so Davis would be in good company should he be the selection.  Davis’s calling cards are his power and his arm.  If you’re drafting for traits that are hard to buy/obtain in free agency or trade, Davis is a solid choice.  The lack of depth at the position is an added bonus.

Pirate COMP: Oneil Cruz – 2020 (8.30) — Is this one a stretch? You betcha.  The closest Pirate prospect was Conner Uselton at #94 most similar.  Boring.  If we’re going to stretch, let’s go with Cruz who has similar power potential and a similar cannon.  Davis is likely to have more luck tapping into his 50-grade hit tool over Cruz’s 40-grade. 

Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt Pitcher

Notable COMP: Sixto Sanchez – 2019 (2.42)

This comp is from when Sanchez was a 60-grade Future Value and when he was a top-25 prospect in baseball. He has the stuff and command but he’s been derailed/delayed by some injuries. This is always a cautionary tale with pitching prospects, but Sanchez is a complete prospect, as is Leiter. The top of the rotation potential is undeniable with Leiter.  Longenhagen claims that Leiter is trying to “price himself down” to Boston at 1.4. I cannot wrap my head around that term, but I think Leiter would be a fan favorite in Pittsburgh, unless of course he is just counting the days until he can get out of Dodge. 

Pirate COMP: Mitch Keller – 2019 (3.67)

Being out of market, I cannot tell if the fanbase has truly soured on Keller. I can imagine the frustration of a former prospect failing to live up to the lofty expectations. However, he’s still young and we are not far removed from Keller being a top pitching prospect in the sport. Leiter compares favorably to Keller here, while still being 2 years younger. This just shows how advanced of a prospect Leiter is and how much room he has for growth and development.

Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt Pitcher

Notable COMP: Alek Manoah – 2019 (1.82)

I actually love this comp. Manoah tips the scales at 250+ so you get those big, intimidating vibes that Rocker also brings to the mound. Both are given an overall FV of 45+ out of the draft, and both sit mid-90s and touch 98. It took Manoah just about two years to make his Major League debut, and maybe Rocker could be on a similar track 

Pirate COMP: Carmen Mlodzinski – 2020 (3.23)

Mlodzinkski is our comp for a Pirates prospect and I think it mostly comes down to his size, age, and fastball. I don’t think you’ll get many arguments that Rocker is far superior to Mlodzinski, despite his solid start to the season, and adding a player that immediately jumps to the top of your pitching prospects list is never a bad idea. But I must admit, if I had my choice I would take a player that relates closely to Sixto Sanchez and Mitch Keller over the one that compares to Manoah. 

Kahlil Watson, High School Shortstop

Notable COMP: Jazz Chisholm – 2018 (4.37) — Chisholm is actually the 30th ranked comparison to Watson, but I must admit, I love the comp.  I actually started writing this after the Miami series, and really enjoyed watching Chisholm.  Watson has been tearing up the competition as one of the few High School prospects still playing, and he has had a late surge up boards.  There’s an outside chance he could be in play at 1.1 and I think it comes down to being able to tap into that power like Chisholm has.  

If I can nerd out for a second? There are actually two versions of the COMPS board that I made. The first, the basis/foundation of this entire article, deals only in potential tools.  The other, unreleased version averages out the current level of each tool with the potential, as well. When comparing prospects this way, Chisholms score jumps to 2.38 and is the #1 player comp. I bring this up because the 2018 version of Chisholm was 20.9 years old, and Watson is barely 18. So in my humble opinion, there’s space for enormous growth here and Watson could prove to be the biggest boom prospect of the high school bats. 

Pirate COMP: Sammy Siani – 2019 (2.45) — This one is most intriguing to me.  Siani is the #1 overall comp for Watson, but not only that, there are 7 Pirates prospects (well, Head when he was with SDP and Siani twice) that show up in the top 26 closest player comps to Watson.  It would seem that if the Pirates were still run by Huntington that Watson would fit their mold.  Nonetheless, adding athleticism and much-needed power to the system should absolutely not be scoffed at when selecting 1.1.

Conclusion:

We are really only dealing in potential here.  For every Manny Machado or Gerrit Cole, there’s a dozen Bubba Starlings and Danny Hultzens. I don’t want to come away with the thought that any option here, any of the six players discussed for the 1.1 draft slot are a slam dunk to dominate in Pittsburgh in the near future. But we can often lose the forest for the trees when talking of prospects that we have never seen. “Player X has a low ceiling, Player Y won’t hit.” We just don’t know how these players will turn out. But when we compare their traits and demographics over time to past (and current) prospects, we can start to see similarities. The decision might be Mayer or Lawlar or Leiter, but if we pose it as a player that may develop into a Kelenic or Rosario or Sixto Sanchez that can excite the fanbase. If we can relate these players to former (and current) Pirates prospects, it’s exciting to think about another Peguero or Oneil Cruz (that can play catcher) added to the system or another Mitch Kel.. well, you get the point.  In July, the Pirates are going to add a piece to the farm that will immediately add tremendous value to the system.  They won’t be picking a player because they are cheap or going after a player because Nutting doesn’t want to spend.  They will get a top tier prospect that can be an integral piece when they are ready to contend again.  Patience, dear reader. 

**Directions:
File -> Make a Copy
Enter a Draft Prospect into the Gold Box (all other boxes autofill)
Sort A-Z on Sim Score
Profit

Pirates Battle Back To Beat My Second Favorite Team In The First Of Two

Back in the day, when me and my friends had to crowd around the 19 inch TV in my bedroom to play video games, there was really only one rule-you couldn’t play against another person with a hometown team. This went for Tecmo Super Bowl, RBI Baseball 1 through 3 and eventually NHL 94 when I upgraded to the Sega Genesis. Having cousins who lived near Chicago, in Northwest Indiana-the only part of the country I was even relatively familiar with, outside of my bubble in Western Pennsylvania-I naturally gravitated toward their favorite teams; the Bears in football and the White Sox in baseball. The only sport I deviated from this pattern was with NHL 94, where I was always the Hartford Whalers, because honestly those jerseys were absolutely amazing.

As a 12 year old sports fanatic, especially of Major League Baseball, my screen was filled with the likes of Black Jack McDowell, Bobby Thigpen, Ron Karkovice, Joey Cora, Lance Johnson, Ozzie Gullien Sammy Sosa and my favorite non-Pirates player of the time, Robin Ventura. As far as teams went at the time, they weren’t the best, but they were far from the worst; but to me it didn’t matter since they were my chosen team. Soon this adoption started to go beyond just clicking on the White Sox when I turned on my Nintendo; I started actually following, and becoming a fan of the team. I had White Sox t-shirts, hats and even a couple of jerseys alongside those of the Pirates. I watched their games when they were actually on, and went to a few games with my cousins on regular summer visits. Believe it or not, I still cheer for them, whenever they are not playing the Pirates, just like I did when I was younger; and they are one team I know anywhere near as intimately as I know my favorite hometown team. This makes things a little bit interesting, and gives me a little bit of a strange feeling, each time the Pirates and White Sox meet because not only do I recognize the players across the diamond, I am used to cheering for them. This was no different last night when the boys from the Southside rolled into town for a quick two game set.

For Chicago, their young staff ace Lucas Giolito-who no-hit the Pirates in his last appearance against them back on August 25, 2020-took the mound against Pittsburgh’s crafty lefty, and rental trade piece. Tyler Anderson.

The Pirates would strike first as Adam Frazier challenged Giolito with a ten pitch at bat; ultimately ending in a solo homer that landed three rows back, above the Clemente Wall.

They would tack on another run, as Bryan Reynolds singled in Frazier, while Anderson was cruising through the White Sox lineup; spreading out three hits and striking out four. The top of the 7th seemed to be going almost as smoothly, until Yasmani Grandal stepped to the plate, in a pinch hit role with two on and two out, and took Anderson’s first offering over the centerfield wall.

Luckily for the Pirates Faithful, their Buccos were up for the challenge as the dinked, dunked and bunted their way to four runs in the bottom half of the inning; somewhat assisted by a Yoan Moncada throwing error.

The Pirates bullpen would then come in and go to work; ultimately shutting down Chicago over the next two innings by not allowing a hit, walking one and striking out four on the way to a 6-3 Pirates victory.

News and Notes

  • David Bednar got his first Big League win last night, but probably not in the way he envisioned it; going only a third of inning and allowing a hit, while tossing only eight pitches.
  • Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds continue to power the offense; going a combined 3 for 7 on the day, with 3 RBIs.
  • I really wish Cherington would pull the trigger on a RichRod, and especially a Kyle Crick, trade sooner rather than later; not that he is in complete control of this. Rodriguez recorded his 9th save, has a 1.84 ERA, and a .72 WHIP. Crick, to his credit, has posted a 2.79 ERA and a .98 WHIP on the season. Both have stumbled at times recently, which make me worry if a downfall is coming, so it would be nice to have them off the books if and/or when this comes.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t necessarily “slumping” in the full blown sense, however he is batting .174 over his last 23 at bats, and only .246 over his last 57. I know this is a small sample size, but if you are going to use one to show that he is great, you have to be open to using the same criteria to show he is struggling.
  • Adam Frazier is currently second in All-Star Voting at Second Base in the NL. Go Vote!

https://www.mlb.com/all-star/ballot

The Pirates and the Pale Hose will be back at in a few hours-12:35 PM EST-with yours truly in attendance for the first time since The Steve Blass Farewell Game. Chase De Jong (0-1, 4.26 ERA) gets the start for Pittsburgh, while Dylan Cease (5-3, 3.99 ERA) toes the rubber for Chicago.

Time for the MLB Draft to Evolve

You know, it’s really hard to get excited for the MLB draft. I mean this season the Pirates have the number one overall and I bet even that will only prompt real nuts die hands to watch.

It’s not an event, little drama, the athlete’s stories are often pretty vanilla, and you know for damn sure if your team drafts 15th, they’ll draft 15th.

See MLB is the only of the four North American pro leagues to not allow for the trading of draft picks. It was designed that way to prevent teams from hurting themselves, and I’m sure there are some team execs who would handle it poorly.

Now if you’re a rebuilding team like our Buccos and you have the number one overall pick, you’re probably going to get a really good player, but play with me here a bit, what if the Rangers really really want Jordan Lawler at number 2 and they’d trade that pick to you plus a comp B pick typically like pick 62 or there abouts to ensure they get him. The Pirates could still take Mayer or Leiter at 2 but now they’d get an extra high end piece.

Sure they’d have to mess with slotting money, maybe the slot money follows the pick rather than the team. Regardless why would the team not have that option?

Wouldn’t that help a rebuilding club to stack prospects thus giving them a better chance to really work through the process?

I can hear you now, Bob would always trade the number one pick, he’s so cheap after all. Ok, I’ll ignore the fact nobody has spent more in the draft than your Pirates since the slotting system was implemented, and instead skip to asking how you think having more picks would cause you to spend less.

The CBA negotiations are sure to be contentious after this season, but I still don’t see a cap, the ultimate fix to what ails the sport, that doesn’t mean we can’t actively hope for and discuss some other changes like this that could still help balance a scales a bit more.

Think about if you were able to trade a player for picks you’d make yourself or even use to move up rather than a probable miss prospect or someone else’s problem. MLB has no shortage of problems, and the fix isn’t Cap or bust.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 6-21-21

Good afternoon from the beach. I know I’m supposed to just shut down for the week, but that’s just not how I’m wired. I’ve listened to every game this weekend including on the drive down Friday Night, what a nuts game that was.

There is just something about fishing from the shore and listening to a baseball game while blowing the froth off a couple brews and having family members ask you why the Pirates stink this year. Unlike all of you I don’t have to give a “pro” answer, I can just tell them its a rebuild and the owner sucks. Usually does the trick. One of them actually asked me how Pedro Alvarez has been doing, so, you know, game over really.

1. Ride the Surf

When the top of the Pirates order awaken at the same time this lineup can really be something. One thing Derek Shelton and crew haven’t done a good enough job of is maximizing them as a unit when they are firing on all cylinders. Now, before you hammer me that this isn’t fair because parts of the group have been injured most of the season, I acknowledge that. Since they’ve been back though, I don’t agree with resting them one by one. I’d prefer the old “Sunday Lineup” that rests most of the names at once rather than spreading out the rest over the course of a week. A team like the Padres can afford to do that, a team like the Pirates need to keep that engine together as much as possible.

That said, it only matters if the team wants it to.

I could argue this one either way. One, it’s good for the club to not do well this season, now it’s also hard for me to get too excited about it either way because reality dictates they’ll finish in the bottom five, and that’s going to provide a good player anyhow. So I come back to, don’t you want these guys to experience some success? Seems to me that can’t hurt.

Want Bryan Reynolds to be the seasoned veteran on the winning club of the future? Well maybe let him experience a bit of success in that role now.

2. The Shell Game

Sometimes no matter how convinced you are that you know who is and isn’t in the plans, what role they’ll play eventually, players will surprise you.

For instance if you told me 5 years ago that Jacob Stallings would be the Pirates starting catcher, I might have believed you, but I’d have attributed it to being cheap. Turns out the 31 year old is actually very good at baseball.

Fans tossed him aside, writers expected nothing, heck the team DFA’d him years ago and now he’s become indispensable to the cause.

How about JT Brubaker? Not too many people had spot of hope that he’d stick in the lineup let alone be heads and shoulders above Mitch Keller in the development track.

When you look at the depth chart, and think about who will and won’t be part of this thing when it matters, don’t forget to leave a few spots open for the guys who you already gave up on.

3. Comb the Beaches

The Pirates need to get creative as they continue to fill the minor leagues with talent. That’s why they brought in players like Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler, Troy Stokes Jr. and Ka’ai Tom, but it’s time to stop being that kind of creative.

Next season, more Ben Gamel types, fewer crap shoots.

Is Ben Gamel going to confuse anyone with Barry Bonds out there? Oh Hell no, but he can hold his own, and he’ll hit enough to contribute. That is more in line with what a team trying to build from the ground up really needs to do to keep the arrow pointing in the right direction.

So by all means, keep taking a stab on talent, just maybe change the baseline to replacement level MLB player.

4. Stormy Skies

People have been predicting doom when the Pirates move players at the deadline later this season. I completely get it, how could I possibly not right? Can’t move a player like Adam Frazier and honestly believe the club is going to get better or even tread water.

I’m not even talking about moving Richard Rodriguez or some other players like Tyler Anderson. Of course the team is going to lose some mojo, but that’s the point of all this isn’t it? They aren’t getting all these prospects so they can never ascend.

This is the natural order of things, and entirely needed if they are indeed to keep the train rolling on bringing in even more. Players need to evolve, and for that they need room. It’s likely that nobody ready to step in will adequately fill the shoes of anyone I mentioned, it’s still the right move. They’ve gone too far down this road to decide to turn now.

5. Bust Out the Aloe

I’m not sure how many times people need to get burned by the same dream. Bob Nutting doesn’t want to sell this baseball team.

This isn’t some lecture from a blogger to a beat writer about what is right or wrong to publish. The recent piece by Jason Mackey talking about a guy (and that’s as far as I need to go really) putting together a consortium to buy the Pirates is just dreaming.

I’m sure it’s a story, I’m sure he did his job by covering it, I’m even sure the dude “wants” to buy the Pirates. I’m also equally sure as Jason himself pointed out that Bob isn’t interested.

None of that matters.

See, Jason also knows something that I too experience, the headline is what will get pumped around the internet and all most people will read. The story will live even while everyone involved knows it won’t go anywhere. I had at least 15 direct messages and 20 emails within 2 hours of that piece dropping asking me if it’s true.

If they’d read the piece they’d know it wasn’t much more than fodder for the disgruntled. The fan base has been burnt by things like this before, I mean it’s probably been close to a decade since Mark Cuban seriously inquired about purchasing the Pirates and I still get asked questions about his “imminent” purchase.

I’m not here to tell you that Bob Nutting will never be met with an offer he couldn’t refuse, but it won’t come out in a newspaper first. The story will be broke right before a deal is done, not when some dude is thinking about it. Certainly not when some dude is thinking about maybe starting to consider asking some other rich guys if they want to help him get closer to being serious about maybe talking to Bob.

C’mon guys, you’re smarter than this.

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades with Justin Verno and Joe Boyd – The Bullpen 6-21-21

Justin Verno- So far, Joe and I have tackled the values for Adam Frazier, Rich Rodriguez, Jacob Stallings (a touchy subject, evidently), Tyler Anderson and Trevor Cahill. Next up? The bull pen guys. I have nothing to back this next statement up, Joe, but I imagine if I crunched the numbers over the years it’d show that bullpen arms are the bulk of the trades at the deadline.

Joe Boyd – Yup, I think it’s a safe bet to see one, if not all, of these players in a different uniform on August 1.  In theory, the market should be most saturated with bullpen arms so the price is much lower to acquire an additional piece for your bullpen.  As I’ve mentioned in the past, teams that may be ascending but are not quite in their window may want to add a player but not give up the proverbial farm.  In that case, a Pirates bullpen arm could definitely look enticing. Add on top of that, the top arms that could potentially be available all have more than 1-year of control.

JV- The Bucs will have no shortage of names here. Chris Stratton, Geoff Hartleib, Sam Howard, Kyle Crick, Austin Davis, Chasen Shreve, even Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault could be names we hear if healthy and have a few good innings. Does Cherington get over aggressive and listen when it comes to Holmes or Bednar? I don’t think moving Bednar makes sense, though Holmes is an interesting thought–his three years of control could have value.  How far will Cherington go here?

In the last article Joe and I decided to split the bull pen into two groups: more likely to be moved less likely to be moved. In this episode we will concentrate on the more likely to be moved: Kyle Crick, Sam Howard and Chris Stratton. 

JB — I’ll break down Stratton first. Not for any other reason than he’s a personal favorite of mine. I love his versatility and his spin rates. I thought he’d be a nice diamond in the rough pick up a few years ago. He has never broken out to the level that I had anticipated/expected, but maybe that is why he was a waiver wire claim. Nonetheless, he may be a piece that was picked up for free, performed relatively well in comparison to expectation and is used to get a piece for the future. Stratton still has 2 arbitration years ahead of him, so it is not necessary to move him now, but he could be a piece that a team could target, especially for his statcast numbers. 
So using our typical inputs: Fangraphs WAR, ZiPS projections for the remaining controllable years, and our TPOP arbitration estimates, I get the following surplus value for Stratton:

Moving on to Kyle Crick, and he’s a tough one to pin down.  I think I might be pretty bearish on Crick, but looking at his BABIP (.125) and how much lower his ERA (2.04) and FIP (4.00) are compared to expectation (3.64 and 5.78, respectively), I can’t help but expect some regression through the season.  For this exercise, I’m going to leave his projection static and have him account for 0.0 WAR throughout the season.

Crick is the first negative value player that has shown up on one of these conversations (we aren’t doing a Polanco trade piece!), and there are a few points that I want to quickly make.  First, that Salary is not what the spreadsheet spits out, rather that is a modest arbitration bump each year.  In fact, Crick’s arb estimate falls below the $0.62M threshold for a minimum salary.  In theory, that means he has the chance of being non-tendered.  So if you thought that Crick’s salary was crippling, you could add him to a deal that would lessen your return but also get his salary off your books.  I don’t think Crick is to that point, but a trade for anything may be the target here if non-tendering him in the offseason is inevitable.  Since his salary is so low, however, they could look to keep him and try to fix his issues.  My guess?  The latter. 
And now we get to the final, and “biggest” fish, Sam Howard.  Howard may be a bit wild with the walks, but these statcast numbers are pretty impressive.  Add to that Howard is a southpaw under team control for 5(!) years, and you may have a piece that can return some value. Let’s take a look:

I find it interesting that ZiPS seems to buy into Howard considering he has only produced -0.1 WAR over his 72 appearances in the big leagues.  I am sure teams will look at those underlying numbers and see the value in him, but I’m also not exactly comfortable putting this high of a price tag on Howard.  However, since he is under team control for quite some time, a suitor would have to pony up to pry him loose.  

Is that enough of a breakdown on these values, Justin?  Let’s see what you’ve got for some trade packages for these guys.  

JV — It is. A few things from my end. 

  1. Crick is a guy I can see teams like the Marlins or Royals taking a chance on. Shame that “international slot money” is no longer on the trade buffet because that would sound right to me. 
  2. Stratton is another guy I think “metric” driven teams will look at. 
  3. I couldn’t agree more with Howard. The attraction teams will have here is LH, always a bonus at the deadline!

JB — Trade Partner — Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are in a tight race in the AL East. They are currently 8.5 games back for the division, but only 3.5 games out of the wild card. Their young offense, lead by Vlad Jr., has been mashing and their prize free agent acquisition, George Springer, is set to start his AAA rehab assignment to give the team an additional offensive boost. 

As a team that is on the cusp of its contention window, now would be a good time to make a move to bolster the bullpen, but not necessarily go over the top and mortgage that promising future. Not to mention, Cherington and AGM Steve Sanders came over from Toronto, so they may have some additional information on the prospects that could be available.

Stratton for Adam Kloffenstein — RHP — ETA: 2023 — 40 FV ($1.0M)

This is a scenario where Toronto essentially throws in the towel on Kloffenstein.  He’s a former overslot 3rd round selection in Cherington’s penultimate season with the Blue Jays.  He’s a monster, standing 6’5 and weighing in at 243 pounds with a bulldog mentality.  However, the velos do not match the profile and Longenhagen at FG projects him to be a middle reliever or a groundball inducing #4 starter.  Adding a pitcher like Kloffenstein would be a strong piece for Pittsburgh in that he could provide depth/insurance for the young guns that are progressing through the system or he could add value as a future reliever.  

Howard for 

Rikelvin De Castro — SS — ETA: 2024 — 40+ FV ($4.0M) & 

Dasan Brown — CF — ETA: 2024 — 40 FV ($2.0M)

Looking at the Blue Jays bullpen, they only really have one lefty, Tim Mayza, so adding Howard might be a better bang for their buck, but as mentioned earlier, the deal has to be too good to pass up.  In this deal, the Pirates get a slick defensive shortstop and another athletic center fielder to add to the mix. 

De Castro is athletic and smooth on the diamond, but so young and small that he needs time to develop at the plate.  Fangraphs notes that he has the proper mechanical base for his swing, but needs to add weight, like 20-30 pounds!  His ability with the glove could develop him into a Stephen Alamais type, glove-first shortstop. 

Brown is another teenager to throw into the farm.  He’s graded out as an 80 runner, meaning that he has elite speed.  He could be a special defender, but that will have to carry his bat.  His hit and power tools are both below average.  There’s an opportunity for him to develop into an 8th spot in-the-order, defensive stud in centerfield. 

JV-As I look at Crick and Stratton, I think of going back to teams that weren’t expected to compete this year.–the Giants, Boston or maybe the Reds? When Joe and I started this, the Royals and Marlins fit this description, showing how quickly the trade market can change. 

  Other teams would be teams that have spent a lot to get into the race–low key pick up that doesn’t blow up the farm. The Mets, Phillies and Padres?

Trade partner-Boston Red Sox

For Kyle Crick-

Albert Feliz–LF–ETA:2023–FV 35+(under 1 million)

Albert is another power. At 6’2” and 220 lbs., this guy is a behemoth and with that comes power. If he can turn that raw swing into something more consistent and repeatable, (he also needs to improve his pitch recognition) there’s certainly some bust here but there’s also some boom. 

For Chris Stratton

Blaze Jordan–1B–ETA:2021–FV 40(2M)

Jordan became famous for hitting bombs in his early teens, hitting balls out of MLB parks, and for a long time seemed to be a first overall type pick. This kid packs a lot of power, but per Fangraphs, he has a downward swing that will likely be reworked a little for the ever popular “launch angle.”  3B, LF and 1B are possible here, and he’s an obvious DH candidate. Prying Baze off Bloom’s hands here could be a tough ask, but go for Ben!

For Howard I’m switching to the Braves.

Trade partner-Atlanta Braves

Kyle Wright–MLB–

This package will be a bit of overpay, but Howard is controllable and LH, so a little of an overpay is okay. Wright was once a top prospect who just has seemed to put it together in the majors. In 68 innings he has accumulated a slash line of-

ERA 6.09  FIP 6.37   ERA+ 79

This is a gamble and a kid who could use a change in scenery. Does Cherington get his “Glasnow” here? Wright isn’t a FA until 2026, so this could work.

Bryce Ball–1B–ETA:2022–FV 40+(4 million)

I wanted to look at Langeliers or Michael Harris here, but I think that’s too much, being I put Wright in front. I get his value is down, but there’s A LOT to work with there. However, with Wright being a reclamation project, Cherington seeks a good second piece here. Ball is another big bat over field guy–he’ll never win a gold glove and will likely hit in the DH once it gets done permanently in the NL. He has a little Mason Martin in him in that he has a good walk rate, and similar hit tool. If the Bucs can land Ball here and get both guys to keep the K rate down (Ball has seen his K rate spike) that’d be huge.

Parting Shots

JV- I don’t think Joe nor I had a prospect above an FV of 40+ and I get that it’s hard to get excited for guys like that. SO, I again turn to the Bucs system.

-Kyle Wright could be in the mold of Ty Glasnow.

-Some 40+ Pirates prospects: Maikol Escotto, Jared Jones and Mason Martin.

-Some 40 Pirates prospects: David Bednar, Blake Cinderlind and Shalin Polanco.

-Some 35+ Pirates prospects: Po-Yu Chen,  Alexander Mojica and Luis Tejada.

There’s a lot of value in that area!

JB — Love the comps to Pirates here.  These trades are often for players that are lower on the other team’s prospects lists, but sometimes they turn into Oneil Cruz.  That’s not to say/expect that this will happen, but I’m personally very high on a guy like Escotto (He’s my darkhorse to be the top prize of the Taillon trade!), Polanco, and Mojica.  So adding these “lower level” prospects is not always a fool’s errand.  A change of scenery is not just for flailing former top prospects.  It can also benefit lower level prospects that need a different style of player dev to unlock their true potential.  Adding pieces that have a shot to explode in the future by trading guys that won’t be around for the next window of contention is what we’re looking for the Pirates to do here.  

Justin, we’re creeping towards the deadline and we’ve hit on the main players that could be moved.  We split up the bullpen to likely trade fodder and unlikely.  Would you say that next round is to break down those “unlikely” to move bullpen pieces? Or do you have any other thoughts?

JV-I think the “unlikely to be moved” bullpen guys have to be next. After that, though, I think we need to take a look at two guys. One I can see being moved is Colin Moran. The other? Well, we’re gonna have a lot of people coming at us, but I think we have to at least break down Bryan Reynolds. His name is out there too much to at least not take a look at the value. In the end I don’t know how much sense it makes to move him and that would be both for Ben Cheington and any GM that is considering a trade for Reynolds. We would not be particularly thorough if we didn’t address that situation. 

JB — I’ve seen some trades that throw Reynolds in, and that’s at respected sites like the Athletic.  I think it’d be a good idea to just show how valuable Reynolds actually is so when we see his name bandied about in deals, we can get a grasp on how realistic those deals could even be.  My hypothesis is that Reynolds’ value will be prohibitive for most clubs.  So what’re your thoughts on Bryan ‘skipping the line’ a bit?

JV-Reynolds it is!

The Pirates Bats Fell Silent Once Again

First of all Happy Father’s to all the Dads out there; as well as the men and women who step up to fill any void. Your presence in our children’s lives is immeasurable and we are forever thankful for all you do.

For me, I was lucky enough to have multiple family members who showed me love and support in every aspect of my life; and a part of this was a passion for baseball, but more specifically the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, it was no surprise that on a beautiful Sunday afternoon we found ourselves focused on JT Brubaker’s performance.

Through the first four plus innings Brubaker was completely cruising, until Harold Ramirez hit his third solo homer of the series. Even then he wasn’t phased very much, as he would be charged with another run; but only allowed two other hits, while striking out nine and not walking a single Cleveland batter.

Unfortunately it was the second earned run that would be the deciding factor as the Pirates dropped the final game of the series 2 to 1.

News and Notes

  • Five of the Pirates six hits came from the expected cast of characters (Frazier, Hayes, Reynolds, Stallings and Moran), but in the end it was only worth one run.
  • On the season JT Brubaker has posted a 3.77 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, which leads the Pirates in both categories. He also had the most strikeouts (72) and the lowest combined batting average against (.238).
  • Derek Shelton will continue to be questioned concerning his decisions as far as pitching usage is concerned. When he was removed from the game Brubaker had only thrown 76 pitches, with 59 of them being for strikes.
  • Sam Howard was placed on the 10 Day IL prior to the start of the game, after his worst outing of the season by far. In his place Austin Davis threw his second straight scoreless inning on the year.
  • I am actually kind of surprised by the number of people on my Twitter timeline that actually watch the NBA. For the record the last full game I watched was game 7 of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals.

The Pirates are off on Monday, before returning to action in a short two game series against the Southside White Sox on Tuesday and Wednesday, with yours truly in attendance for the Afternoon Matinee.

Pirates Pounce In The Seventh For Their Second Straight Victory

The Pirates are clearly going through a rough patch. With the number one overall pick coming their way in less than a month from the disastrous 2020 season, a ten game losing streak barely in the rear view and a place in the bottom four of MLB reasonably secured; it is a tough time to be a fan of the boys along the Allegheny. However, on nights like this, they give you a little bit of excitement, and remind you why you wait around; hoping you get the chance to raise the Jolly Roger.

For six innings the Pirates hung around; not really threatening, but not letting the game get away either. Then in the seventh, one of the the unlikeliest of heroes put Pittsburgh up with one swing of the bat. Micheal Perez is batting .152 and has twelve total hits on the season; nevertheless, he took a 2-2 pitch over the Clemente Wall for his fifth home run of the season.

Obviously we know Perez’s time with the Pirates may not be fondly remembered, if it is at all; however, for one at least one night he brought the fans to their feet, and got the fireworks warmed up at PNC.

Later the same inning Bryan Reynolds sent one into the drink to put an exclamation point, on what would end up being a 6-3 win for the Pirates.

News and Notes

  • Bryan Reynolds just keeps on hitting. Over his last 15 games he is batting .358 with 5 home runs, and is currently on pace for close to a 7 WAR season.
  • Chris Stratton isn’t extremely flashy, but he gets the job done. On the season, he has a 2.79 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
  • Wil Crowe didn’t have his best stuff tonight, but he didn’t let things get out of hand either; allowing 2 runs on two solo shots; while walking and striking out a pair.
  • Of course Harold Ramirez hit two homers against his “old club” tonight, because Pirates Fans can barely go a day without mentioning a Neal Huntington trade.
  • I am not sure if there are any immediate moves upcoming, but Cherington really needs to think about why some of the guys are on the current roster, and if they honestly deserve to remain there. I understand this isn’t often the immediate thought after a win, however they can’t stay stagnant either.

On Sunday at 1:05 PM EST, the Pirates look for the series sweep over the Indians.

For Pittsburgh, JT Brubaker (4-5, 3.88 ERA) toes the rubber against Sam Hentges (1-1, 7.54 ERA) for Cleveland.

Pirates Barely Hold On To End Ten Game Losing Streak

The Pirates must have been tired of hearing about the fact that they had scored 4 or less runs during their current slide, as they put this discussion to rest by putting a 5 spot on the board in bottom of the first; capped off by an El Coffee bomb.

A few innings later Bryan Reynolds added a shot of his own and Ke’Bryan Hayes cleared the bases. At the time it looked Pittsburgh would run away with this one in a laugher.

Unfortunately the Pirates bullpen had other ideas. First the whiff rate king, Sam Howard hit his first real snag of the season; which made me go in my bunker to get a tin foil hat to protect me from the sticky stuff. Then came the wildness of Kyle Crick; causing the initial pages of the Manfred Manifesto to come following from my already warped mind. Finally, Richard Rodriguez took the mound; getting the save for the closer than needed 11 to 10 victory, but calling into question the effects of the substance that existed on his glove all year up until last night.

News and Notes

  • I hate that this is the stuff I have been made to think about, notice or question while watching a baseball game.
  • Chad Kuhl looked calm and collected, thus efficient. Through 6 full innings and 77 pitches Kuhl struck out out 4, walked 1 and allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits.
  • Young Hayes is good at baseball. He has cooled off obviously, because the original pace he had set was that of the greatest player of all time. The kid doesn’t really strike out, makes good contact and gives the Pirates a chance in every game he plays in; or at least give us hope for the future.
  • Bryan Reynolds is also good at baseball. Hitting his 11th home run on the season, has him only 5 off of his “career” high. Currently on pace for 27, this is honestly more power that I ever expected from the young switch hitter.
  • I am done with Tom. No offense to Ka’ai, but I am truly done watching him struggle at the plate. Bring up Alford, call up Olivia, give Bligh Madris a shot or let’s see what Chris Sharpe can do. Any of this would be better than what I am watching right now.

In about an hour the Pirates and Cleveland Baseball Team will be back at it.

Will Crowe (0-4, 6.75 ERA) remains in the rotation, to take on Cal Quantrill (0-2, 3.11 ERA); with Crowe still looking for his first big league win.

The Pirates MLB Draft Conversation

Back in June of 2020, just days before the last MLB draft-held in the absence of a decision concerning how long the season would be, or if their would actually be a season at all-I began to see #TankForKumar trending on Twitter. As an avid College Baseball Fan-Let’s Go Eers!-, I obviously knew who Kumar Rocker was; especially after his no hit performance in the previous year’s Super Regional against Duke, where he struck out 19 as a 19 year-old freshman. However, I never really pictured him as the face of 2021. Possibly because of his age, lack of experience and the shortened 2020 season; but mostly because I never saw that developed changeup; which I am still waiting for by the way.

As the Pirates season officially began-and ultimately progressed-the trend for Kumar, and a supposed tank started to snowball; culminating in some creating a magic number for a last place finish. With each passing game it became almost impossible to avoid, as memes of actual tanks filled my timeline, tank commanders were awarded for poor performances and the catchy hastag-which I found funny to a degree, only because of the hilarious Harold and Kumar movies-had developed a life of its own.

Then came the first of September, which brought on the second coming of Cutch; also known as Ke’Bryan Hayes’ MLB debut; and of course another hashtag-#Ke’BROYan. But not to worry, the #TankForKumar was still going strong, reaching unspeakable heights; until the Pirates finally clinched the number one pick at the end of month. Time to celebrate, right? More like time to argue about who Pittsburgh should select.

At first it was simply Rocker vs. Leiter, but as time went on the dreaded high school shortstop entered the conversation; because you know, the Pirates already have enough shortstops. Although no one can seem to tell me who the guaranteed shortstop of the future, or appear confused when the topic of shortstops transitioning to the outfield is discussed. However, these can be debated another day, as we all know positional need should never be the focus of the MLB Draft.

When selecting a player-high school or college-the goal is to find the best player available at your slot; which comes with a little added pressure when your team sits inside the top 10, and particularly when you happen to be picking #1 overall. It’s a blessing, and a curse, as you get the pick of the litter; all the while, every other team directly behind you is waiting for you to screw up, and leave the guy they really want on the board.

As it sits today, there continue to be about five names that the Pirates are supposedly zeroing in on as the name that will be called on Sunday July 11th, so I thought I would take a deeper dive into all of them to help you make your choice; even if it turns out to be the incorrect one.

The Early Favorites

Jack Leiter is one half of the original Kumar vs. Leiter argument; because let’s face it, it has been an argument rather than a debate. Two Vandy Boys with lights out stuff, and who pitch on back-to-back days, makes an easy progression to want to pick one over the other in a Cole-Bauer like controversy. However, for me the choice was always an easy one; Rocker has the higher ceiling, while Leiter has the higher floor. With Leiter you were getting what I saw as close to a guaranteed middle of the rotation guy as you could get, whereas with Rocker the possibilities range from top of the line starter to shutdown closer; and I don’t want to take the chance of getting a closer with the number 1 overall pick, but maybe that’s just me.

On the season, Leiter posted a 2.16 ERA, a .854 WHIP and 156 strikeouts in 96 innings of work; 9 of which was a 16 strikeout, no hitter against South Carolina at the end of March.

With the build that that is considered small for a starter, Leiter utilizes a four pitch repertoire of a 90-95 mph fastball (70 grade), a 12-6 curveball (60 grade), a underrated slider (55 grade) and a changeup (50 grade) that he often keeps in his back pocket. His delivery is also extremely repeatable, and consistent, which allows for maximum deception on all of pitches. Wild at times, Leiter has been known to give up free passes, or a streak of homers; nevertheless, he has remained strong throughout the season, and into the College World Series.

Jordan Lawlar was the first dreaded high school shortstop to regularly enter the conversation for the Pirates Top Draft Pick; and he was actually my number two for a time, just behind Leiter.

Currently committed to Vanderbilt University, this 6’2” 183 pound Texas Prep School Shortstop has all the makings of a true 5 Tool Player; with speed, quick hands, power to all parts of the field and a strong arm, the only knock on the youngster I have seen is that he turns 19 a couple of weeks before the draft.

The Late Riser

Khalil Watson’s buzz started out as a *whisper*, but has been on full blast over the past couple of weeks.

At 5’9” and 178 pounds, he is clearly the smallest of the three high school shortstops. Known more for his speed and defense, there is a lot more power than you would expect from a lefty his size. Profiling as a shortstop, his athleticism and arm strength could allow for a transition to any almost any position on the field.

Seen as a player than could potentially go under slot, some Pirates Fans have targeted as a way to save some money for picks later on in the draft; although I don’t really put much stock in that practice or train of thought when it comes to the first overall pick.

The Position of Need

Henry Davis appears to be the answer to everyone’s-the Pirates don’t have enough depth in the system at catcher-prayers. Obviously I am not saying that the hopes of these fans are misguided, or incorrect, however, this goes back to the old adage that you don’t draft for need; unless you truly believe that Davis is the best player in the draft, while also taking into account the questions about his ability to remain behind the dish, which could turn him from an above average catching prospect to an average outfield, or even a first base prospect.

Davis does have some qualities that are without question; including his arm strength, raw power and overall hit tool, which have allowed him to stay in the discussion as a near consensus top 5 pick.

For the year he slashed .370/.482/.663 with 15 homers, as he threw out 34% of the would be base stealers; resulting in comps to Dodgers 26 year old back stop, Will Smith.

The Top Tools

Marcelo Mayer has a build that is similar to Lawlar at 6’3” and 188 pounds, which has allowed some to project more untapped power in his approach.

Listed as being the best hitter and the best defender in the current draft class according to MLB Pipeline, the California Prep Star is seen as having an advanced approach at the plate and a sweet stroke to go along with it; and honestly the more tape I see on this kid, the more I like about his overall game.

Now, naturally, one of my favorite sites, Fangraphs, had to go and throw an extra wrench in the mix by projecting where each top pick would fall in an updated version of the Top 100 Prospects, just for fun. Which is just what it is, fun; so I had to include it.

In all honesty it is hard to see how Cherington could go wrong with any of these five players; with all things being pretty much equal across the board, and none of them truly standing out as that coveted 1:1. Although, watch the fallout if four of them fail, and one succeeds-with that one not being Ben’s choice. And obviously be prepared for the implosion of Pirates Social Media if all five fail, leaving Rocker as the one that has the best career.

Now, keep in my mind that I am clearly an amateur in a ring with professionals, so you can take my opinion with a grain of salt. However, having watching and preparing for MLB Drafts has been a passion of mine ever since my neighbor’s boyfriend was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 42nd Round of 1993; or for those of you keeping track at home, soon to be 28 drafts under my belt. Which is to say I have as much of a chance of getting this pick correct, as a person who just started studying the draft this year.

The MLB Draft is a crap shoot. There’s no other easy way to say it. My picks of Marcelo Mayer or Jack Leiter, has just about the same chance of being the right in the long term, as the guy who is still #TankingForKumar. That’s just how it goes.

But you will never see me use the hashtag, #TankForElijah. That I can guarantee.

Pirates (23-44) Swept in Washington, Bell Bomb Game Winner

We’d like to see more efficiency from our starters.

I know, you all want answers from the coach as to why he keeps saying he needs more from his starters, then immediately sets forth pulling them early, well, unless of course they’ve given up 5 runs in the first inning, then they get 5 or 6.

I don’t expect full transparency from baseball executives, coaches, even players if I’m honest. But at some point what you say should at least make some sense.

Look, it wasn’t a great outing for Chase De Jong, 4 innings, 1 run and he worked to get through it, but his pitch count certainly wasn’t preventing him from giving the club another inning minimally.

So, whatever you want to think is going on, it sure would be cool if Derek Shelton would quit saying he wants more. He just won’t give anyone an opportunity to do so. It’s silly. It’s killing the pen. In no small way it’s brought about a 10 game losing streak.

Again, this team isn’t good, I’m under no illusions here, but let these guys show you what they can do or head into 2022 with the same damn questions.

The Pirates are off tomorrow.

News & Notes

  • Injury Updates: Steven Brault is going to throw a bullpen session tomorrow. Looking to have him back maybe late July. Ji-Hwan Bae is out for 4-6 weeks with an MCL sprain. Nick Gonzales is cleared to resume baseball activities. Trevor Cahill is Lonnie Chisenhall for now.
  • Josh Bell hit a 2 run homer off David Bednar in the 7th. He’s still a promising young pitcher, but he’s also clearly in a bad stretch. Kind of shocking so many hit a bad stretch all at once.
  • Colin Moran pinch hit today, should mean he’s back in the lineup come Friday
  • Ben Gamel has shown himself useful. I’d like to see him treated as OF number 2 until he proves he shouldn’t be. Yes, that means over Polanco.
  • Jacob Stallings was a late substitution for Michael Perez as a pinch hitter and went 2 for 2.
  • Bryan Reynolds was 2 for 4. Adam Frazier had an uncharacteristic 0 for 5. Those two have been THE offense all season. If either of them have an off game, it’s pretty much game over.
  • I’m heading off on vacation on Friday, Craig Toth and Anthony DiFilippo will have you covered on the game stories. You might see me pop a story in here and there, but just in case you’re the worrying type, I didn’t die, probably.