Steel City Pirates

Sometimes Knowing Isn’t Exactly Half the Battle

This entire season, and last season for that matter I’ve been telling you along with a chorus of other voices that everything the Pirates do is about answering questions about players.

Some of those have started to present themselves, but just because you can say you know who isn’t the answer, certainly doesn’t mean one who is has emerged.

For instance, It’s pretty clear Kevin Newman’s bat isn’t strong enough to allow him to keep the starting short stop gig long term. To his credit he’s shown himself to be an excellent defender, probably better than anyone believed possible if we’re honest with ourselves.

So, having that answer is really nice to have. His glove more than plays at this level and for that reason alone he’ll get more opportunities. If there were someone viable pushing him out of the way the conversation might be different.

Cole Tucker hasn’t shown to be better, even if he figures out the bat, his defense isn’t nearly where Newman’s is. Eventually he will get a more extended look. At some point a decision will be made on Adam Frazier, they’ll either trade him or extend him. I think we all know which is more likely, but until it happens, the fact remains, he’s here and nobody is taking playing time from him.

I think what we know really is that despite not being the best fielder, Oneil Cruz is the most exciting short stop option on the way. He’s in AA of course and in 121 PA he’s racked up an OPS of .895 with 13 XBH, 6 of which are home runs. Importantly he’s also drawing walks, with 11 so far. It’s important because for instance the most walks he’s ever drawn was 36 and that came in 438 PA. IT also came with 132 K’s, so he clearly had some work to do. The strike outs are still a thing, but he’s getting that ratio more in check so far slashing 11/31 BB to K line so far in 2021.

All that is really good news and I’m confident it will lead to a promotion sooner than later, but the glove is an issue, at least at short. He’s committed 9 errors in 90 chances for a .900 FLD% which obviously won’t fly at the MLB level. Now, we look around the league and see players like Tatis Jr., he’s committed 15 errors in 164 chances for a .909 FLD%. Or Javy Baez who’s committed 13 errors in 233 chances for a .944 FLD%.

The moral of the story is if the bat plays, the player plays.

Is Cruz the short stop of the future? It’s hard for me to say that, but I do think he’s the next one. The team seems committed to keeping him there, and they’ve had opportunity and need in the outfield so you can’t really say this isn’t purposeful at this point.

No, I haven’t forgotten that Liover Peguero exists. I think he’ll wind up being the guy when his time comes but we have to keep in mind that the road to MLB is rarely linear. We’ve already watched Nick Gonzales have his season derailed this year so it’s not like I’m just predicting doom.

Thing is, you have to have players every year, and just because someone isn’t going to be the starter in 2024 certainly doesn’t mean they can’t be the guy in 2022. In other words, you don’t have to believe Oneil Cruz is the shortstop on this team in the middle of the decade to understand he might just be the shortstop that gets them there.

I could do this all day.

I think it’s pretty clear for instance that Gregory Polanco isn’t going to force the team to make a tough decision. Paying him 3 million dollars to get him to go away after the season isn’t going to cause anyone to lose a wink of sleep.

So why keep playing him right?

Well, who’s pushing? Anthony Alford? Dustin Fowler? I’ll be honest, they could do something like that and it wouldn’t phase me, I just don’t see anyone short of Jared Oliva as a viable option to “improve”, at least this year and he’s been injured. Travis Swaggerty had a solid shot of making his presence felt this season but he too fell to injury and by the time he touches the field again he will have not played more than 12 games past A ball, only 12 games of baseball period since 2019.

Another answer, Polanco isn’t going to just find something, he isn’t going to suddenly emerge and become a guy the Pirates want to keep in the fold. Having him play right now isn’t even really about possibly trading him, c’mon, you’ve watched what he’s put on tape. That’s the state of the Pirates outfield pipeline. Some answers live in AA, Smith-Njigba, Mitchell. AAA has some older prospects like Bligh Madris and Chris Sharpe along with the aforementioned Jared Oliva, but they’re not pushing Polanco out of the way. His ability to hit homeruns has largely been dormant in 2021, but his capability is still there. The allure of someone who can hit a homerun, especially if you have to pay for it regardless is just too much.

Question answered, with no real solution. Not yet.

These are things that fans will grow tired of long before team executives will. We like to think because we see a stretch of at bats or one dumb fielding mistake that’s all we need to see. That’s just not how this works. Not at this stage.

In the future, as Ben Cherington continues to build up the farm system we’ll start to see the meritocracy take over. That said, it’s important to remember that a meritocracy doesn’t mean a player failing to reach potential always prompts a move. It’s a constant push-pull. If there’s nobody pushing it hardly matters who’s failing.

Sometimes organizationally there simply isn’t a good answer. That’s the real legacy of the Huntington era, and when people say the system was bankrupt, they aren’t saying there was nothing at all in the minors, they’re saying there are far too many positions that simply don’t have anything even close to impacting the actual Pirates.

Keep answering questions, absolutely has to happen, just don’t expect answers to make themselves apparent before they’re ready.

If things weren’t like this, it’s very likely Ben Cherington isn’t the guy fixing it.

Pirates (23-38) Swept by Dodgers 6-3, Keller Struggles Again

Win, lose, or draw, the biggest story to come out of this game was written by the 3rd inning. Mitch Keller has started 27 games in MLB, and for at least a moment let’s do away with the silly good game/bad game pattern thing and look at the overall picture. He came into today with a career 6.14 ERA and that got worse today as he allowed 4 runs in 2.2 IP.

In a season that doesn’t matter record wise anyway, it makes sense to give a player like Keller time to figure things out, but if I’m honest that time has come and gone.

Out of every pitcher the Pirates have started on the mound this season Mitch has by far the most upside, but upside and production are two different things. The argument that he has learned all he can in AAA has been made, hell I’ve made it, but at some point you have to wonder if they’re doing more damage than good.

One thing is for sure, he’s not giving the team a chance to win on most of his trips to the mound. At some point what he was supposed to do this year has to be balanced by what he is actually doing.

One option is to move him to the bullpen, but I hesitate to take that approach, why take a problem from the beginning of on game every five days and introduce it to the middle of 2 or 3 a week?

Again, the Pirates scratched and clawed their way back into this one and actually recovered from the 4-1 deficit to make it 4-3 powered by a two run shot by Bryan Reynolds.

Duane Underwood Jr. and Kyle Crick each surrendered a run to make it 6-3 and the heavens opened. Crick was obviously not pleased that the umpire refused to call it and started slow walking everything on the mound, not that I blame him, can’t imagine it was easy to get a grip, even if he was using whatever Gerrit left in the locker room.

Games like this on a getaway day for a West Coast team often get called, and that’s exactly what happened today. 7,1 innings in the books, game over. 6-3 Dodgers.

Tomorrow the Pirates start a fresh series in Milwaukee and they’ll send Chase De Jong to the mound to face Brandon Woodruff

News & Notes

Mookie Betts has been slumping, but a Mitch Keller fastball as center cut as center cut gets is gonna get hammered, and did in the first to hand the Dodgers a 1-0 lead in the first.
That’s now 12 straight losses to the Dodgers for the Pirates.
If Miguel Yajure were healthy rather than being shut down through June, the calls for Mitch Keller being demoted might merit more thought. As it stands it would only warrant more starts for Trevor Cahill. At some point they’re going to have to decide what’s best for the player. Is it here or in AAA? That’s not an easy call, and you or me being sick of watching him struggle unfortunately won’t be where they find their answer. Today had a different feel. Just my gut, but I feel like they make the call to send him down.
With his third inning double Adam Frazier extended his hitting streak to 13 games.
Bryan Reynolds continues his hot power streak with a two run shot that matches his jersey number at 10.
I have to say, every game, National, local, out of town broadcasters are awful according to my social media feeds. So stop listening. You understand the game right? So you don’t need them, volume down, listen to some tunes. Or, realize that they are little more than background noise and move past it. For instance, you know why they talked a bunch about Mookie Betts? Because he’s a sick sick ballplayer. And the next time Sean Casey is anti Pittsburgh will be the first. Silly.
So far no update on Moran. He was held out of the game today but was seen in the dugout with no cast or brace. Best I can do here is, maybe, a good sign.
Since his return to the lineup, Phillip Evans has gone 3 for 8. Certainly a welcome sign that he’s on a good path.
No matter what the Pirates do with Mitch Keller, the bullpen can’t continue to eat this many innings. Having players like Duane Underwood come in and eat 3-4 innings when a starter blows up has worked, but if they’re going to stick with Keller that role needs to go to someone like Trevor Cahill. If Cahill is going to remain on this club, hey, make him useful, it’s not like he’s going to turn into a 8th inning set up guy.

Pirates Are Out-Dueled By The Dodgers

In the first inning, it seemed as if the Pirates would really be able open the game up with some two out magic; pushing Dodger Tony Gonsolin to his limits, and loading the bases after already putting one on the board with a Gregory Polanco RBI single. However, Micheal Perez-who is now hitting .141 on the season-struck out on a 3-2 heater, right down the middle of the plate.

At that point I was a little bit disappointed, yet, I still thought the Pirates would get another shot at Gonsolin, or another of the Dodger’s pitchers during the game. Obviously I was completely wrong, as Pittsburgh only mustered one more hit the entire game; not that the Los Angeles offense was firing on all cylinders either, as their only marks on the scoreboard came on two solo home runs off the bat of Justin Turner.

In the end all of the scoring was completed by the top of the third inning, in this 2 to 1 pitcher’s duel.

News and Notes

Ke’Bryan Hayes “finally” addressed the media before the game concerning his home run gaffe from the previous night. It would be really nice if we could move past this now; and not because it was the second embarrassing play the Pirates have been involved in recently.
Prior to the game we also got the weekly update from Senior Director of Sports Medicine, Todd Tomczyk, concerning the Pirates injured players. Miguel Yajure has a mild case of ulnar neuritis but no other structural damage in his elbow and will likely be out through June, Trevor Cahill is not experiencing any symptoms from his mild calf strain, Steven Brault is now throwing sides, twice off the mound to be exact, and Rule 5 Draft Pick Jose Soriano Jose Soriano has more, new damage in his elbow reconstruction from his 2020 Tommy John Surgery. A revision surgery cannot be ruled out.
I’m no doctor, but you have to believe the pitch that hit Colin Moran broke something, right? I literally cringed when I realized the sound did not come from the ball hitting the bat.
On a positive note Adam Frazier extended his current hitting streak to 12 games. He has had hitting streaks of 8, 12 and 10 already this year. The Pirates have played 60 games.
The bottom half of the Pirates batting order is just abysmal. Any combination of Kevin Newman (.204 AVG and .498 OPS), Michael Perez (.141 AVG and .546 OPS), Ka’ai Tom (.154 AVG and .547 OPS), Erik Gonzalez (.215 AVG and .530 OPS) and Phillip Evans (.215 AVG and .666 OPS) just isn’t going to get the job done.
Man, Clay Holmes has absolutely solid recently. In his last 15 appearances he has not allowed an earned run, while striking out eleven.

The Pirates look to avoid the sweep this afternoon at 12:35 PM EST at PNC Park.

For Pittsburgh Mitch Keller (3-6, 6.65 ERA) faces off against Julio Urias (8-2, 3.48 ERA). On a positive note, in the pattern of Keller starts, this is supposed to be a good one.

Would an Extension Change Pirates Fan Relationship With the Team?

Before I dig in on this subject, there is nothing that will have real lasting effect on the fan base like winning. While it doesn’t feel like it at times, I think it’s easy to accept that Ben Cherington wants to do exactly that. I just don’t get the impression that fans have an issue with what he and his team are doing, their beef is largely with Bob Nutting and ultimately the fervent belief that he won’t support Ben’s efforts when the time comes.

I can’t argue that, I won’t even try.

So on that note, would an extension or two be enough to buy some good faith?

Well, I think it kind of depends on who. For instance, should the team manage to extend Ke’Bryan Hayes beyond 2026 what would that do for you as a fan? Let’s say they get it done, give him say 8 years, that takes them through 2029, and this isn’t exactly crazy, the Pirates have done this with Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, I mean, I could keep going. That said, what this extension would really do is ensure Hayes is here not just during the window, but through it.

It gives the Pirates cost assurance, meaning they find a way to avoid the possible outcome of Kris Bryant like arbitration numbers in the 2025-2026 range of his career and they don’t have to make a decision much like the Cubbies will face this season. See, even the rich Cubs are in a position where they need to decide should we trade potentially our biggest chip for prospects as all of their core pieces reach contract maturity together, or should they hold onto him and try to take advantage of a weak NL Central to see if they can’t get one more playoff series with this group.

Now, keeping Bryant will probably hurt the ease with which the Cubs turn the page, difference is they have the money to not have it set back the franchise for a decade.

That’s why to me it’s important the Pirates are able to get something done here with Hayes, not so we can have some nearly non-existent feel good “he’s a Pirate for life” stuff. I’d really rather not see the team forced to make a decision that will hurt the franchise regardless of the choice.

At 24 years old, he’s not getting a Tatis type deal from the Pirates, or any team really. Somewhere in the 8-10 year range is the sweet spot I believe and 8 would be smart for him as well, he’ll still be young enough to score big in free agency, whereas 10 might push it a bit too far and force him into Josh Donaldson type territory for his first big post Pirates contract.

Now if they did get this done, something at least, I can’t see anyone thinking the team did the wrong thing here. I think just about everyone would see this as a good call, and regardless of who they give credit to it certainly can’t hurt the credibility of this management group. Even if it results in people believing Ben Cherington is a miser whisperer and tricked Nutting into compliance the desired result would be apparent.

So, I think the benefits to getting this done with Hayes make total sense, I mean, let’s not pretend it’s a stretch to sell this to you. Who doesn’t want to see Hayes in Black and Gold for the majority of the decade?

Let’s translate this to some other players.

Bryan Reynolds would be another easy sell, maybe not quite as much money but the timeline is super close. Reynolds is done in 2025. I’d be making most of the same arguments here, but maybe a step back in dollar amount which I’m not touching to begin with. None of these are going to be the 20 Million per year behemoths we’ve seen for players like Mookie Betts. Extensions like that are really a lot more closely related to full on free agent deals than they are to extensions that buy out rookie and arb years.

Let’s see, how about the flavor du jour Adam Frazier? Nobody wants to see him leave, even those of us who think it realistically will happen. What could they get done here? He has one more year of team control so the decision must almost assuredly come either this trade deadline or at latest this off season.

4.3 Million dollars this season and if he continues to play like this who knows what he could get in arbitration. My best guess would be a touch over 7, believe it or not this wouldn’t be a concern for even the Pirates, running out of control certainly is though.

There isn’t anyone viable on the near horizon to replace him. That’s not to say nobody can play the position or even that it matters particularly given the current timeline they’re on, but another way to look at it could be buying time. Let’s say they can convince him to extend for 4 or 5 years. Is Adam going to be Adam when he’s 35 or 36? Likely not. But the Pirates wouldn’t really be looking for that out of him, they’d be looking for him to play well for a couple seasons to bridge the gap to whoever’s next.

They could always move him a bit later in the timeline, but depending on how the deal looks and how much he’s lived up to whatever the cost is would of course effect his value. Now would it cripple this franchise to not get the return they could get for him now? Eh, probably not, but what the Pirates really have to do is balance the risk reward.

What will he provide the Pirates on the field versus what could he provide the franchise in future talent? That’s the question, and a question for that matter the club has to answer repeatedly over the years to come.

Baseball’s system isn’t evenly applied across all baseball. When you say Bob Nutting is cheap, you’re dead on. But how much can he or any Pirates owner truly spend? We just don’t know without open books, but we can reasonably assume it’s far less than the Yankees or Dodgers.

These conversations and things to think about I outlined in this piece are for the most part not even topics in the top ten markets MLB has to offer.

I fully understand the hate directed at this owner, but I also think you need to realize a new owner changes the equation less than many would care to believe.

To me, it’s incredibly boring to stop every conversation with chanting the name of public enemy number one. He’s part of the story, he isn’t all of it. Regardless of whether I’ve opened your mind enough to actually consider these questions the fact remains they exist. No matter how much easier it is to name a boogieman and point at him for every distasteful thing this team does, some of these things don’t make sense for the team, some do. Take the time to evaluate as though you were the GM working under the constraints you know exist.

Every time a player approaches his last two years of team control the open choice is going to be on the table. Extend or trade? For each instance here are some questions we should ask.

How old will the player be when team control expires?
How long can we reasonably expect his performance to not drop off?
Is there anyone remotely close to filling the hole that might be left?
Does this player have a history of staying on the field?
What is his value on the market?

Answer all those questions honestly and put on your GM hat, rather than scream and cry for an extension because someone hit a homerun or pitched 7 shutout innings.

Think of this like your car. When you get it paid off and the warranty has expired, every time something happens to the car you have to ask yourself many of these same things. If I fix this how much more time can I get out of this car? Is it worth dealing with things not being perfect in order to not have a car payment? If I put this money in and it breaks down again in 3 months can I afford to fix it next time? Can I afford to get a new one in 6 months if I was wrong?

Again, money is an issue, but nothing is more dangerous than dead money. This isn’t a market that can afford to have a 37 year old who contributes nothing on their bench making 15 million a year.

I like to discuss what goes into decisions like this rather than just tell you what I think they should do with a wall of stats because if you put yourself in the position of thinking through things like this, chances are you’ll understand the choices and when you tell me Cherington was wrong or right, it won’t just be based on how it made you feel.

Pirates (23-36) Make it Interesting in the Ninth, but Fall to Dodgers 5-3

The Pirates for the first time since game two, had all the components present and accounted for who constituted their opening day lineup. On paper it certainly looks better than we’ve seen in quite some time, and as someone who tries to temper expectations pretty often, it’s actually not a bad thing to face the Dodgers right now.

The Bucs are coming off consecutive series with the Rockies and Marlins, each struggling for different reasons but struggling nonetheless. Even as the players slowly trickled back in one by one so too did the confidence in the lineup grow.

This is a reality check series. And it certainly started that way.

JT Brubaker worked through 4 innings of scoreless ball the fifth was not as kind. Players started making good contact off him, but nothing hurt worse than Gregory Polanco turning a single that he did well to reach into a 1 out triple.

Two Bryan Reynolds all out diving attempts later the score was two nothing and Shelton went to Chasen Shreve who got the groundball he was looking for but it snuck through to score a 3rd run.

Walker Buhler gave up a first inning home run to Ke’Bryan Hayes, that, um, ended up being an out. More in the notes about this play. Then loaded the bases in the 2nd with two outs but JT Brubaker was the batter, the expected result took place.

After that, either Buhler completely dialed it in or the Pirates just got frustrated, honestly, a combination of those two.

Chris Stratton came in for the 6th and promptly gave up a two run shot to make it 5-0.

The bottom of the 8th the Phil Evans singled and two productive outs moved him to third setting the stage for Adam Frazier to extend his hitting streak and drive in the run with one double worthy swing of the bat.

In the bottom of the ninth Bryan Reynolds led off with an opposite field homerun into the bullpen to make it 5-2. 107.7 off the bat and 418 feet. He has really found his power stroke. On a really good pace to crack 25 if he keeps this up.

Two outs later Michael Perez hit a pinch hit homerun to make it 5-3.

With two outs in the ninth the Dodgers were forced to go to Kenley Jansen who struck out Phillip Evans to end the game.

We can discuss a lot of things about this team, but if you want a snapshot of why they are where they are, here you go.

Back at it tomorrow with Tony Gonsolin squaring off against Tyler Anderson.

News & Notes

Phillip Evans was activated today and so was Mitch Keller. The corresponding moves were to option Austin Davis and in at least a bit of a surprise they DFA’d Wilmer Difo. Eh, someone had to go, I guess. If I’m honest, I’m not sure Evans is an upgrade over Difo. Hardly matters really.
In this weeks installment of you might never see that again, Ke’Bryan Hayes hit a homerun and missed first base, so he was out on appeal. I’ve seen people blame the 1st base coach, and the dugout, but Ke’ would take blame I’m quite sure for his own error. Sometimes a guy just makes a bad play, it’s ok if the player is the only one to take blame for it. I’ve never seen a first base coach on a home run distance fly ball stare at first base, that said, who in the building isn’t watching it fly? Just a mistake.
Despite Polanco’s error tonight, he’s actually been pretty good in the outfield of late. I know saying something positive about him is bad for ratings, but this isn’t typical of how he’s looked recently.
Adam Frazier has gotten more attention but Bryan Reynolds now had 9 homeruns and came into the game with an OBP of .390 pacing the team if you don’t count the extremely small sample size of Hayes.
Tonight makes 11 straight losses vs the Dodgers
This was Brubaker’s shortest outing since April. 4.2 innings

The Lone Lefty – Omar Cruz

When the Pittsburgh Pirates and General Manager made the decision to trade starting pitcher Joe Mugrove, I must admit that I was a little conflicted; and I still might be.

Last year before Major League Baseball, and the world for that matter, were shutdown, Gary and myself were sitting at 412 Brewery, enjoying some delicious beers and taking in a Pirates Spring Training game with Big Joe on the bump. As Musgrove unleashed his first curveball either of us had seen that year, we both put down our beers, looked at each other and talked about the amount of movement that wasn’t there before.

Flash forward to the end of the year, as we all listened to both Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton speak about Musgrove building on his success in 2021; while at the same time knowing that he could be on his way out if the right offer came along; which obviously happened on January 19 of this past off-season when Cherington pulled the trigger to bring in the haul from San Diego of hometown reliever David Bednar, centerfielder Hudson Head, pitcher Drake Fellows, catcher Endy Rodriguez by way of the Mets and lefty starting pitcher Omar Cruz.

With that Big Joe went home to eventually throw a no-hitter for the Padres on April 9th, sending Yinzer Social Media into a tailspin; but I digress, as Pirates Fans should be focused on the present and the future, which is made almost impossible by said Yinzer Social Media. And I digress even further.

Since taking the helm of the Pirates, Cherington drafted five right handed pitchers, signed eleven more between 2019 and 2021 on the International Market and picked up at least a couple through free agency and waivers. Sure, he signed Tyler Anderson, a lefty, to a Major League deal, but we all know what that end goal of that is. So, as a fan of the team you have to wonder where that crafty lefty could emerge from. Well, it could come from within their own system, if everything works out as planned.

Originally signed by the Padres at the beginning of the 2017-18 for $100,000 out of Hermosillo, Mexico, Cruz began his professional career with San Diego’s Rookie Ball Affiliate in the Arizona League in 2018, before earning a mid-season promotion to the Class A Short Season, Tri-City Dust Devils. Between the two leagues he posted a 1.96 ERA, a 1.323 WHIP and 59 strikeouts in 42.1 innings.

To begin 2019, he once again found himself with the Dust Devils, but only for two starts and seven innings, ultimately being promoted once again to the Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps; where he started to display more command/control as his walk rate dropped from 5.62 per 9 innings over his previous three placements to 2.39 for the remainder of the year. His ERA did see a bump to 2.76, yet, his WHIP fell to 1.122, as his strikeout rate remained at a solid 11.39 batters per 9 inning pace.

Set to continue the strides he had made during his 20 year old season, Cruz instead had to settle for an impressive Instructional League performance, without a regular Minor League Baseball Season in 2020; and eventually a trade to the Pirates in the off-season, where he would be assigned to the High A Greensboro Grasshoppers.

As possibly the least notable member of the trade, aside from maybe Drake Fellows who has yet to pitch a professional inning; and at the time eclipsed by David Bednar mostly because he was from Mars, PA, it was hard to gauge many reasonable expectations for Cruz, although some projected him as a potential back of the rotation starter for the future.

Unfortunately for Cruz, his first start in the Pirates Organization didn’t go quite as planned, as he gave up four runs, walked five and struck out four in two innings of work; good for a 18.00 ERA. However, in his past four starts he is sporting a 1.72 ERA, has struck out 27 and only walked 6 more batters total, in 15.2 innings of work; an obviously encouraging sign.

At only 22 years old, there is plenty of time for him to refine his three pitch arsenal of an average fastball and deceptive change, with a plus curve, that could make him the prototypical crafty lefty to pair with the abundance of right handers for the Pirates as he moves up the system. Hopefully finding is way to PNC Park as early as 2023; but at least to Altoona by the end of the season if he continues to progress.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 6-7-21

The Pirates can at the very least provide some fun baseball to watch. The bullpen has been really good all season and while it isn’t to be confused with the top teams in the league this lineup, healthy, can hang with a decent amount of teams and keep them in most games. Oh yeah, they’ll move some more players, but the most important parts are likely here for a while.

1. Arrange and Conquer

The Pirates have a really solid top 4 now with some of the injuries clearing up. Frazier, Hayes, Reynolds and Moran look good and I really like seeing the damage they can do all on their own.

But I’ve been thinking. You know that’s kinda the point of this feature.

I wonder if they can arrange things slightly different to utilize specific skills of some other players to try to get even more juice out of this squeeze.

Now, I don’t really want to mess with that stretch of players, but what if they were to take a guy like Ka’ai Tom who has very little interest in more than drawing walks and use his skill set a little differently. Traditionally you’d like to see a guy like that in the leadoff spot but that’s not what I’m shooting for here. How about a little Joe Maddon treatment? What if the Pitcher bats 8th and Tom bats 9th? He could do what he likes to do best, draw walks, get hit, whatever, and then when the lineup turns over it creates a situation where that stretch of 4 can have a running start.

Now, the way Gamel is playing this might come at the expense of Polanco. Typically lineup changes don’t do much to change things really anyway, but Tom is a really extreme and odd player, with a very specific skill set. Don’t go nuts here, I’m not saying Tom is anything more than we’ve seen, but it could be really cool to see Frazier and company get more opportunities to drive in players other than, well, themselves.

2. What Was Hidden is Now Found?

It’s too early to say Luis Oviedo is where the team wants him to be, in fact being that I’m fairly certain the club wants him to be a starter in the future I can’t really say that point will come this year at all.

But what if they can go from hiding him to using him? They’ve worked with him and the results are starting to bear fruit. 98 plus on the gun and breaking stuff that is really starting to play.

Rule 5 pickups are a challenge, they sometimes tax a team by making the bench short, or the bullpen a bit thin, but every once in a while you find out talent wins out. We might be watching that with Oviedo right now, and instead of questioning the sparing use of Luis I think maybe I’d be better off just trusting that he’s learning in the background. If he keeps looking more polished each time out that belief is going to be rather easy.

3. Starling, a Man Misunderstood

2015 I think it was, I was sitting in the left field bleachers at PNC Park. Not my favorite seats in the park if I’m honest but I intentionally jump around to different vantage points when I go, the game has different stories to tell depending on where you sit.

This is one of those stories.

See I had always assumed Starling Marte didn’t really care to learn English. I had that impression from listening to his interviews and hearing the broadcast crew mention it quite often. There I was using rudimentary Junior High School Spanish classes to try to tell him how much I loved watching him play.

He smiled at me, you know the smile I’m talking about, looked up and said “Don’t hurt yourself, I do English” He reached over the wall and shook my hand, thanked me for appreciating his work.

Simple interaction, but I learned from it. I learned first of all, maybe the Pirates and those who work for them weren’t being straight with us, and maybe, just maybe, Starling wasn’t exactly eager to show the team what he regularly showed those of us who actually appreciated him.

His return to PNC this weekend brought much of that back to the surface for me, and I’m not one to really get on the broadcast crew, most of the time I don’t even listen to them if I’m honest.

Marte made mistakes, none bigger than his PED suspension in 2017, for some that alone takes away any chance that he was a positive force in this market. My issue has always been that people were far too happy to call him lazy, stupid, or even assume he didn’t care. He was blessed with athleticism that few posses, and when he didn’t make a play that he alone was capable of making seem ordinary most of the time the parade of dismissive tones rained down from all directions.

I’m not here to tell you a statue needs erected in his name, but I am here to say maybe he deserves a better tribute when he comes back than maybe a Joe Musgrove. Nothing against him, just a barometer.

4. Late Bloomer

Jacob Stallings has always been a defense first catcher, and honestly I don’t ever see that changing. He’ll always be considered that because it’s exactly what he is. That said, Jake has evolved. He’s added power, actively seeking damage when he swings as he’s realized he is never going to get to the point where he contends for a batting title, he’s instead actively shifted gears to focus more on doing damage when he does make contact.

Look, he’s not Molina, but he certainly is in that model.

I personally don’t think he’s going anywhere, what he does is simply too valuable to the development of the pitching staff over the years to come.

5. No Outfielders Coming?

Maybe that’s a bit harsh.

I mean I don’t think Dustin Fowler or Anthony Alford are going to play a role, but Chris Sharpe and Bligh Madris are really taking their opportunity by the horns in AAA. Sharpe is leading the East division in doubles with 10 and Madris ranks 7th in OBP .421 in the East.

These aren’t 21 year old players with delusions of having hall of fame careers at this point. Bligh is 25 and Sharpe literally just turned 25 like yesterday. These players have been largely overlooked as many saw nothing but Swaggerty and maybe an honorable mention for Jared Oliva, but these players have just as much of a chance to play a role as anyone.

As we travel the path Ben Cherington is taking us on, players like this will also find their day in the sun. They may not wind up being a long term answer but every team needs players like this to pan out too.

Two Guys Talking Trades – With Joe Boyd and Justin Verno 6-7-21 Jacob Stallings

Justn Verno – Okay, so we’ve already put trade values out there for Adam Frazier and Rich Rodrigeuz, who are two trade candidates I think most Pirates fans expect to see traded before 4 PM on July 30th. (It’s going to be odd not having the deadline on July 31st.) In this edition we will be taking a look at C Jacob Stallings.

Before we do that, let’s take a look at why moving Stallings now makes sense, as there are a lot of people that think Cherington shouldn’t move Stallings at all. In fact, many think the Buccos should consider extending him. Stallings is a fan favorite, a good story, a surprisingly good catcher considering his path to the majors, and an argument can certainly be made to keep him, but for now let’s concentrate on why moving him could be the best move.

1-The first thing that jumps out is despite his control, Stallings is 31 years old. While this shouldn’t be an impediment to a contender, it’s not ideal for a team that likely won’t be a contender until Stallings is 34.

2-At the time of writing this, Stallings had a WAR of 1.2, a phenomenal number that has already covered ZIPs projection, basically, of 1.3. This would put him over a WAR of 3 (even as high as 3.6), a number that would put him in near elite company. I’m not saying I expect Stallings to keep that pace up, but even if he paces another 1.2 the rest of the year, he’d finish with a 2.4 WAR, a solid number that would carry a nice surplus. And looking at his career, Stallings having a WAR of 1.2 in 39 games isn’t all that shocking. Ignoring the 24 games spanning 2016-18 where he accumulated an even 0.0 WAR, Stallings has been nothing short of terrific since his role has been expanded.

2019 71 games WAR 1.3

2020 42 games WAR 1.0

The interesting thing here is his 2021 ZIPs projections are for a WAR of 1.3 while catching 95 games, so he is way ahead of his projections. With 3 years of control left, dealing Stallings now would optimize his return and should make for an interesting name to watch until the deadline.

3-The Pirates system is actually deep, but all in all Ben Cherington needs to add as much talent to the system as he can.

I do need to point out that Cherington should only move Stallings if the deal is right–no discounts.

Joe Boyd – Justin lays out the reasons that it would behoove Cherington to look at moving Stallings, so let’s look at what his value would look like. As with RichRod, I think it is important to create a value range for these players that have many controllable years remaining. For Stallings, he still has three (3) more arbitration years, so his variance is even higher than RichRod. Add to that fact that he is also 31 but playing the most physically taxing position. So I’m going to attack this projection from two sides, the first is if he degrades like ZiPS believes he will and a slower decline.

First, we need to estimate the remainder of the year, and Stallings is off to such a hot start, 1.1 WAR, that he should blow past his ZiPS projection of 1.5 WAR. We all know that Stallings is a wonderful defender, but this year it has been his offense that has pushed up his WAR, and I’m not entirely sure that it’s a fluke. He’s walking more, striking out less, and his BABIP is still below league average (Stallings: .280 vs League Avg of .300). So there might even be some bad luck in there! All that to say, I don’t think I want to regress his production that much for this season. I could see a season in the 2.3-3.0 WAR range.

We’ll tack on the ZiPS projections for this lower bound of the range, and I’ll just say that they feel that Stallings will fall off of a cliff. They have him at 0.7 WAR in 2022, 0.7 WAR in 2023, and 0.5 WAR (estimated utilizing an age factor) in 2024. The final calculation will include his estimated arbitration rates, and for this portion of the range, we’ll use his salary for 2021 of $1.3M, $2.5M in 2022, $3.7M in 2023, and $5M in 2024. That’s a total salary of $12.5M.

Now for the upper bound of the range, we’ll leave the 2021 projection untouched, but I would expect a more gradual decline in Stallings’ performance, buoyed by his defensive prowess. So even if the offense does regress, I would not expect such a steep decline. Assuming health and father time, a decline to 1.4 WAR in 2022, 1.1 WAR in 2023, and 0.8 WAR in 2024 seems pretty reasonable for Stallings. That production, however, produces higher arbitration rates, so his total salary will jump to about $16.8M. So the resulting upper bound of Stallings value range is as follows:

So I have a value range for the Pirates’ 31-year-old team leader between $18.1M and $26.4M. Does that work for you, Justin?

JV- Absolutely. And Cherington needs to get that return to make it worthwhile. Am I saying all $26 million? I lean to no on that, but he needs to be in that $18-$26M range for sure. This is a guy that Cherington needs to be aggressive with or keep.

C is always a need at the deadline, this year being no exception. I can see eight teams, maybe one or two more, looking to add a C.

JB – Trade Partner: Atlanta Braves

Now, I think that Justin has been treading lightly, and rightfully so, around trading Stallings. I agree that he is an anchor on this team, and that his leadership is valuable to a young pitching staff. But he is also 31, he won’t be here for the next contention window, and he’s extremely valuable as a trade asset. No one at the club will admit that tanking is the goal but as a fan, I must say, I think it is the correct choice for one more season. The 2021 draft looked as though it had a superstar ready to be drafted 1.1 in Kumar Rocker. But over time, he has fallen back to the pack and now there does not appear to be a consensus option for the Pirates. Could it still be Rocker? Maybe, or Leiter or Lawlar or Davis? But next year, there is a clear #1 prospect. Elijah Green received a massive comp by Fangraphs for his elite raw power, elite speed, and cannon for an arm: Bo Jackson. So for one more year, I am okay with a race to the bottom. For a team that lacks that star prospect, I would love for the Pirates to have the opportunity to nab Green. And I think trading Stallings away provides a better opportunity for this team to finish at 1.1 in the 2022 draft order. *Steps off of soapbox* Now let’s look at a recent trade that provides an interesting framework for a Stallings deal.

At the 2020 deadline, the Mariners sent C Austin Nola, RHP Dan Altavilla, and RHP Austin Adams to San Diego in exchange for OF Taylor Trammel (50 FV), 3B Ty France, RHP Andres Munos (40+FV), and C Luis Torrens. If you’re interested in a detailed summary of the trade, I implore you to check out this article from FanGraphs. Based on my understanding of France, I believe he too is a 40+ prospect, and I’m going to give Torrens a $0 value just because I do not know enough about him, and he’s not the reason for this point I’m trying to make. So as a rough estimate, this prospect package is worth about $35M for a 30-year-old late-blooming catcher (sound familiar?) and two relievers. I would have loved this package for Pittsburgh, but there is one caveat. Taylor Trammel’s star appears to have some scuffs on it.

In 2019, Trammel was a 55 FV prospect which is Top 25 in the game, potentially a perennial all-star, but in 2020 he dropped to a 50 FV, and after the trade he is now considered a 45 FV. That’s a drop in value of $40M. That trade package now? Well it’s not $35M, but rather $14M. So for a Stallings trade, it’s less about current value for me and more so finding a headliner piece that is on the ascent.

Now for a trading partner, I was between the Cleveland Baseball Club and Atlanta Braves. Atlanta is currently 3.5 games back in the East and 3.5 back in the Wild Card standings. Based on the talent that is on that roster, I would assume that this is unacceptable for their front office. Atlanta has plenty of prospects at the catcher position, but now is not the time to bring them along slowly. No, a move for a savvy veteran that could get the most out of their pitching staff and provide some surprising pop to the lineup would be extremely advantageous for them to get back in the pennant race.

The trade package:

Michael Harris II — CF — ETA: 2024 — 45+ FV ($8M)

Now you may be saying something like, “Joe, this guy isn’t even valued as a 50FV at the time of this deal.. Why would the Pirates pull the trigger on this trade when the total value is so below Stallings current estimates?” Well, your humble author has a method to his madness. Trammel was a 55FV at one point because of his overall skillset, but he dropped to a 45FV due to the fact that his bat just did not seem to develop. Can it still? Sure, but it is looking less and less likely. Enter, Michael Harris. He’s just 20 years old, and again, I’m building a farm that is bursting with talent at the lower levels in expectation that some/most hit the major league club at the same time (2024/2025).

All Harris has done since being drafted is mash the baseball. FG’s scouting report has him rated as above average for all of his tools (except fielding), and he has hit (.349/.403/.514) in the Gulf Coast League and they (FanGraphs) note that the trackman data backs up the switch hitter’s statistics. His exit velos are top 10 for his age group and that puts him in Liover Peguero territory. Sign me up for two Pegueros in the system! Harris is young, but if he continues to mash the ball like this, he could be a 50FV by the end of the year, and even have a chance to develop into a 55FV or more. If he does that, this trade could be franchise-altering.

Kyle Muller — LHP — ETA: 2021 — 45 FV ($4M)

Muller is a towering lefty (6’7 250 Lbs) with stuff that is on the rise. From Longenhagen, “this is a different type of athlete who has one of the sport’s most impressive bodies, and he seems likely to overwhelm hitters with sheer stuff and physicality.” At worst, Muller could be a physically-imposing lefty in the bullpen, but I am sure they would like to give him a shot to start. If that fails, his stuff is so “nasty” that it would play in high leverage situations.

Bryce Ball — 1B — ETA: 2022 — 40+ FV ($2M)

The final piece is an opportunity to acquire power. The Pirates are not going to be in a position to acquire power on the free market, so here they try to nab some in the Stallings deal. Ball has hit everywhere he’s been, but he’s a bit older for a lower level farm hand. Perhaps the Pirates could give him a push to see how he responds. Fangraphs notes that he has a decent hit tool for having so much power. Not a good runner or fielder, he’ll profile at 1B, so he will push Mason Martin to be the first baseman of the future.

I want to close with my final point about a Stallings trade. As I mentioned above, moving on from Stallings might sting now, but could be the key to the rebuild for the Pirates. Rather than looking at the value I have provided here, consider another way. The deal catapults the team into serious contention for the 1.1 overall selection in the 2022 draft to get the premier draft prospect of the decade, while also filling the farm with a (very) high upside CF, a physically imposing lefty, and a power bat. If Harris progresses, even to just a 50FV, the trade could, in reality, be framed like this:

Michael Harris — 50 FV ($28M)

Elijah Green — 50 FV ($28M)

Kyle Muller — 45 FV ($8M)

Bryce Ball — 40+FV ($4M)

I’m trying to be conservative here because Green has the opportunity to be a 60+ FV, but even at these values, the return would be $68M for a Stallings trade. Stallings has been awesome, a leader, a fan favorite, and now.. He can be the piece that brings the Pirates the talent necessary to actually push for a pennant.

JV-I love that you mention Peguero here. When the Starling Marte deal was done, Pegs was a 45+ on Fangraphs. About a week later, they released their pre-season Top Prospect list and Peguero made his debut as a 50 FV player, just a hair outside the Top100. My point? Soon after the Bucs complete some of these trades, Fangraphs and others will be releasing their mid-season updates. So, the trade could be significantly different. Just days after a trade, be patient. With Harris slashing 360/376/494, a bump to a 50 FV is a good bet. And I think that’s the path we see here for any Stallings deal, more “helium” prospects like Liover Peguero.

I had the Braves and the Indians on my short list as well, along with the Yankees, the Padres, Marlins and so on. There are a lot of teams that could be looking to add Stallings. As I looked at possible trade partners, I noticed an interesting development: the AL East has four teams in the chase, and three of them could use an upgrade at catcher. After flirting with getting my beloved Alex Manoah from the Jays, or nabbing Gilberto Jimenez from the team that gave Cherington his first GM job, I settled on the Yankees being able to sweeten the pot and grab Stallings. The Yankees have spent a considerable amount chasing their next ring and adding Stallings to help expand the zone for Cole and company? Priceless. And I know I’ve used the Yankees before, but the fit here was simply too much to pass up, especially in a possible bidding war.

Trade partner-New York Yankees

Yoendrys Gomez –SP– ETA 2022 FV 45+($6M)

Really, we could have gone with either of the Gomez’s here, but I went C last time. Yoendrys is on Fangraphs “Picks to Click” list, and for good reason. His FB, an FV of 60, sits 93-96 and can hit 98 after getting a velo bump this off season. This is notable because Yoendrys already has a good feel for varying his movement and velocity, and he has kept his ability to spot up the FB even with the added MPH. That velo has him attacking up in the zone now. The curveball is the second best offering, having an FV of 55, giving Gomez two possible plus pitches. A 50 FV change up is his last offering, giving three good pitches. Fangraphs does point out that he needs to hide the ball better vs LHH. One last thing on Yoendrys, he is a candidate to add bulk and perhaps a little more velo.

Austin Wells –RF– ETA– 2023 FV 45(6M)

Despite catching in college, Austin will matriculate to the OF where the bat could play better without all the squatting, to take the pressure off his arm. He should move through the ranks pretty quickly with a hit tool FV of 55. The power needs to develop here. It grades out a FV of 55 in both raw and game power. The reason I think Cherington could eye Wells? He slashed a solid .308/.389/.526 at Cape Cod leading up to the draft, and the Cape loomed large in the Buccos 2020 draft room.

Ryder Green –RF–ETA 2023 FV 40(2M)

You want power? How does a 70 FV grade for raw power sound to you? And his game power is an FV 55. The kid can run (FV 50), field (FV 50), and throw where he grades out at an FV of 60 right now. So what gives? Why isn’t he a top prospect? His hit tool really needs to improve: it sits at 30 with an FV of 40. He needs to cut down on the K’s. He was also a victim of the pandemic, being one of the kids who wasn’t invited to the alternative sites. But here’s the interesting part–he was one of the names on Fangraphs “Picks to Click” of 2020 list. Not being able to play means he’s back to square one. This is a unicorn player, as fangraphs calls him, if the hit tool develops and possibly my favorite piece in this package.

I get that people love Stallings, but he is likely the Bucs biggest viable trade chip (not named Bryan Reynolds, and I doubt they listen to him) and if you get this kind of package for him, I think you have to do it. Yoendrys and Green are helium guys, and with a real good year could both get bumps.

Gomez FV 50(21M)

Green FV 45+(6M)

That’d be a great boost to the system!

And if that STILL doesn’t sound good to you, would you give up Brennan Malone, Hudson Head and Nick Garcia up for a Jacob Stallings? That’s really what I’ve built here.

Brennan Malone FV 45+

Hudson Head FV 45

Nick Garcia FV 40

I think most Bucco fans would hate to give that package up for a Jacob Stallings, and oddly if those names WERE the package for Stallings, most fans would be happy because they recognise those names and they know about them which breeds comfort.

JB – I love that package for Stallings and enjoy the idea of 7 for Yankee prospects in the Pirates system! Noting the ETAs, we have 3 of the 6 players in these hypothetical deals that are projected to arrive in 2023 or later. This will give the Pirates plenty of time to develop these players and have them ready to go when the team is ready to compete again. Will they all hit? Assuredly not, but that is why you keep trying to acquire arms, athletes, and players that can play up the middle.

As I mentioned above, Stallings provides an opportunity to be that keystone piece to the rebuild. If he can return a package similar to what Seattle received for Nola, and the team’s current performance suffers enough to select Elijah Green in 2022, he may have set the team up for sustained success. And while Pittsburgh is on the sidelines again for the 2021 playoffs, we’ll have our guy Stallings to root for on his new team.

So Justin, where should we go from here? Do you want to knock out a few of the rentals? Anderson/Cahill?

JV-You read my mind Joe! A 2-fer would hit the spot!

The Pirates Missed Out On The Sweep

With Chad Kuhl on the mound there is usually not too much wondering as to what pitcher you are going to get that day, which is why I was a little concerned about Jesus Aguilar bomb in the top of the second. However, this lapse in placement was not the norm, and more of the outlier, as he kept to the pattern of soft contact, didn’t allow many runners on the base paths and executed pitch placement for his first quality start of the season. Yeah it was a loss, but did it actually look bad? Hey

Assuming the offense, holding the bats it was Frazier, Hayes and Moran for the most part. Unfortunately fans expect perfection from the players that are regular contributors, so anytime they go 0 for whatever, it is a lost day; and maybe we should trade or DFA them. Sorry guys and gals, hitting ostreaks don’t last forever.

In the end, there was no offense to equal the limited output from the Marlins, as the Pirates fell 3-1 in pitchers duel on Sunday afternoon.

News and Notes

I have seen countless articles about the need to consider trading for Oviedo’s rights in order to send him down to AAA, which is baseless and asinine in my honest opinion; and not based on his performance today whatsoever. There is absolutely nothing he is working on right now that is any different than it would be as a starter, and stretching him out right now to in AAA, when you are trying to limit his innings, which would actually be extremely counterproductive.
The Redbeard is back and Tucker is back in AAA. I know Cole is easy to love and root for, but at some point he actually has to be good at baseball as well.
Hayes just hits, and truth be told I still want to see the league hit back.
Austin Davis has to feel good after the 60 day IL and the scoreless inning.
Mentioned earlier, but Oviedo with four K’s in two innings has to make you smile.

There’s an off day after 3 out of 4, so if you are cheering for the #tankforelijah, this probably not good for you.

On Tuesday, JT Brubaker (4-4, 3.74 ERA), toes the rubber against former Pirates 14th Round Draft Pick from 2012, Walker Buehler (4-0, 2.82 ERA).

It’s Almost Decision Time, Who Goes for Moran and Evans?

It won’t be long before the Pirates get even more help coming off the IL. As we sit here today the Pirates don’t officially have a first baseman on the roster and we all know they’ll soon have two.

So who goes when they return?

The easiest decision is Cole Tucker, he has options and really hasn’t done much since his call up, not that they’ve given him much opportunity either, just a victim of being movable and he certainly hasn’t forced their hand.

Now here’s where it gets hairy. For the second of the two whichever that is, chances are they both come back at the exact same time, the options get more difficult.

I really think it comes down to Wilmer Difo, Ben Gamel or Ka’ai Tom and despite his rule 5 status and legitimately good OBA I’m leaning Tom. Out of all the “tryouts” in the outfield they’ve tried, and I don’t count the veteran Gamel as one, he’s arguably been the best of the bunch, but I’m not sure who else I could make an argument for.

One possibility could be to keep everyone but Tucker and simply option Evans to AAA, but the move would be about nothing more than not wanting to cut loose a player. Can you honestly say Tom has done well enough to have “beaten” Evans out of a roster spot?

I’d say for me I’m probably cutting Tom loose. But the choice was harder than I thought it’d be when the 5′ 9″ outfielder was picked up. There’s a chance he could clear waivers and the Indians wouldn’t take him back of course, but if that happens the club is really going to have to consider dropping Alford or Fowler in AAA to make room. At some point AAA needs to be more about development than a glorified storage unit for guys who didn’t cut the muster in MLB.

Once the Bucs sort through the return of those two, they must next figure out what to do with Trevor Cahill.

He’s apparently healthy, but where does he fit? Does he at all?

The only way he returns to the active roster in my mind is if the Pirates decide they’ve seen enough of Mitch Keller for now and want to send him down to work on things. That’s the list.

I don’t want to give up on any of the bullpen options, it’s been great having the extra lefty in the pen in the form of Chasen Shreve.

Seems to me it’s time to just let Cahill go, but I’ll admit it’s not as easy a decision with the injury to Yajure. The next guys pushing from AAA to get a shot in the rotation were he and Cody Ponce, Max Kranick just was promoted, Wil Crowe was just demoted. Chase De Jong just completed his second start as a Bucco and with him they have to just shoot their shot, he has no options, is 27 years old and would absolutely get snapped up on waivers.

Now, let’s be completely honest here too, the answer on Cahill could be as simple as someone in the bullpen developing a “blister” or “broken fingernail” but based on performance, it’s really hard to say anyone in the bullpen hasn’t more than held up their end of the bargain.

Before you start telling me to trade this guy or that guy to make room, let’s understand something. That’s not how this works.

Think of it this way, if guys like me know what’s coming back for the Pirates, they have smart people thinking through all the scenarios I just put out here. In one day they aren’t going to go out and deal someone that the league thought had a good chance to be on the wire if they were just patient. Maybe you get a cash deal like they did for Vargas, which is by the way exactly how the Pirates got him. There is a period of time from DFA to waiver in which deals like this happen but none of these guys were discussing are going to bring back a “piece” of anything.

They also aren’t going to rush an important deal because they need room for Phillip Evans, that just doesn’t make sense.

If anything, the very real looming moves of the deadline create some of the consternation about finding ways to keep depth now. If you burn through everyone then things get much more difficult later.

So that’s my list,
I’d bring back Evans and Moran for Tucker and Tom, and I’d just cut Cahill loose.

How about you? Get creative, tell me what option you like better?