Starter Spotlight: Sorry Not Soriano

4-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

There’s no bad blood between the Pirates and their former Rule 5 draft pick, Jose Soriano – who will oppose the Bucs in tonight’s game.

Selected by the Pirates 1-1 in the 2020 MLB Rule 5, Soriano was injured before he could debut with the Bucs and ended up having Tommy John surgery in 2021 – the 2nd of his career – and eventually was returned to the Angels as he progressed back from his procedure.

Soriano worked his way back in the Angels’ organization, debuting with the club in 2023 out of the bullpen before joining the rotation the next season.

He enters today with a 2-2 record and 3.16 ERA over his first 25.1 innings pitched on the year. He’s had two really great starts against the White Sox and Rays (14 innings, 7 hits and 1 run over those two outings) and two less-than stellar games against the Guardians and Rangers (11 innings, 15 hits and 8 runs).

Soriano has top tier velocity with a sinker that touches 99 and averages 96.7 as his main offering and a big breaking, mid-80s knuckle-curve as his primary secondary pitch. He generates a TON of ground-balls with both of these pitches resulting in negative average launch angles – that is, when hitters make contact at all.

His other offerings are actually more prone to swings-and-misses as he adds in a high-80s slider against right handed hitters (55% whiff rate) and a low-90s splitter for lefties (66.7%) which he uses later in counts down in the zone to finish off hitters.

His sinker gets significant movement glove-side with a low RPM (less than 2,000) which results in 14 inches of horizontal break.

That said, his sinker is probably the pitch for Bucs hitters to target. He goes to the pitch nearly 58% of the time with significantly bloated stats in front of the underlying metrics.

His oBA (.241) is significantly lower than his xoBA (.320) and the pitch results in the highest average exit velocity among his offerings at 91.8 MPH.

The movement can be tough to square up and elevate but getting bat on the ball is half the battle – a battle the Pirates will need to overcome if they will have any chance at success against Soriano tonight.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (8-15) at Los Angeles Angels (11-10)

4-22-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Bucs are quickly heading the wrong way this season and their opponents this week will be looking to take advantage to turn things around after a hot start to their 2025 campaign as the Los Angeles Angels [of Anaheim] play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a three game series this week.

Los Angeles started the season hot, winning 9 of their first 14 contests before recent stumbles knocked them out of the top spot in their division.

For the Buccos, they have shored up their bullpen with the return of David Bednar and the relief corp holds a 2.54 ERA since April 8th – the 6th best in MLB over that stretch – but haven’t been able to get wins as they’ve gone 4-8 in that time.

4/22
Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) 22 IP, 1-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 15 K, 7 BB
Angels: Jose Soriano (R) 25.2 IP, 2-2, 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20 K, 10 BB

4/23
Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) 25.1 IP, 1-1, 2.13 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 22 K, 6 BB
Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (R) 20.1 IP, 1-2, 6.20 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 10 K, 7 BB

4/24
Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski (R) 17 IP, 1-3, 7.41 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 14 K, 8 BB
Angels: Tyler Anderson (L) 21.2 IP, 2-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 21 K, 12 BB

Pirates: Enmanuel Valdez – Fans of the team are slowly coming around on Valdez, who has been getting regular playing time at first base due to the injury to Endy Rodriguez. Over his last 7 games, Valdez has a 1.101 OPS with more walks (6) than strikeouts (3) in that stretch.

Angels: Logan O’Hoppe – The 25-year old backstop for LA has been among the best hitters in baseball this month, slashing .314/.340/.569 over 53 April plate appearances. Strikeouts are still an issue for O’Hoppe but he’s getting more consistently good contact at the plate as of late.

Pirates: Alexander Canario – The sand is quickly running out for Canario’s tenure with the Pirates. Despite a 58.8% hard hit rate and 35.3% barrel rate, Canario is struggling to get hits, posting a .087/.192/.217 line through his first 26 plate appearances in black and gold. His expected numbers all indicate that he’s been getting some bad luck (.274 xBA and .815 xSLG) but results are what matters and he just isn’t getting the results.

Angels: Mike Trout – Don’t get me wrong here, Trout is CRUSHING the ball as his average exit velocity and hard hit rates are among the best in MLB. Strangely enough, he currently ranks as the unluckiest hitter in baseball with a .133 BABIP. Unfortunately for him, he’s also striking out a heck of a lot more than he used to and bad batted ball luck won’t help that much at all. Trout has gone down on strike 3 in each of his last 9 games totaling 17 Ks in that stretch over only 35 plate appearances (48.6%).

Pirates: C/1B Endy Rodriguez (10 day – finger laceration), 1B Spencer Horwitz (10 day – wrist surgery), 2B Nick Gonzales (10 day – fractured ankle), SP Jared Jones (60 day – elbow discomfort), SP Johan Oviedo (60 day – Tommy John surgery), RP Colin Holderman (15 day – sprained knee), RP Tim Mayza (15 day – strained lat), RP Dauri Moreta (60 day – Tommy John surgery)

Horwitz is working out in Bradenton and is slated to start a rehab assignment soon with the potential to make his Pirates debut within the next few weeks.

Angels: 3B Anthony Rendon (60 day – hip surgery), 3B Yoan Moncada (10 day – sprained thumb), SP Sam Bachman (15 day – Thoracic outlet syndrome), RP Ben Joyce (15 day – shoulder inflammation), RP Robert Stephenson (60 day – Tommy John surgery)

Joyce is among the hardest throwers in baseball, reaching as high as 105.5 mph last season, so losing him is a big blow for the Angels who have struggled to stabilize pitching depth.

Notes:

The Angels are backed by an offense which ranks 4th in MLB for home runs while ranking 29th in walk percentage as a very all-or-nothing approach to the game.

The Pirates have the 3rd most innings pitched by the rotation with 127.2 through their first 23 games this season, taking the workload off a bullpen which had significant blow ups dating back to last summer.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – On the Road Again

4-21-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Lots to get to today, so let’s just dive in.

Lets Go!

1. Paul Skenes Changed Everything

I think a lot about that scene in the Pirates “war” room a few years back, waiting to hear results for the draft lottery, the one that ultimately would give them a chance to select either Paul Skenes or Dylan Crews. Ok, some of you want to pretend they had Wyatt Langford on that multiple choice too, that’s fine, either way, we know how it turned out, and we know who they selected.

Simple statement, and I’ll clarify. In that moment, they were elated they were about to select what almost everyone saw as a transformative, generational player. They were right, but they had no clue it also would end their free ride with the public patience or that he would bring with him pressure to compete that they’ve rarely been forced to confront.

The national spotlight was suddenly shined on an area MLB happily ignores, Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh, well, they forgot how nice it was hiding in obscurity. How easy it was to hide behind their inability to spend like the big boys, and then boom, a 600 MIllion dollar arm was dropped in their lap.

They could no longer pretend because they couldn’t sign that on the open market that they were stuck there hoping and praying they could scrape together enough talent to just get in. They got that talent and don’t have to pay him anywhere near that to provide his services.

That’s supposed to be the small market dream, instead, they essentially took the miracle like the Polio Vaccine and assumed it would also cure everything else that ailed them.

Suffice to say, it didn’t. And now they have fans who haven’t watched in quite some time, national media who haven’t paid attention in even longer paired with the player himself being a fierce competitor and they’re being forced to face up to the fact that they didn’t do anything to surround this gift.

One star doesn’t make you competitive, especially one star who pitches every 5th day (first time they actually allowed that on Saturday FYI, its been 6 or more every time previous). He helps, he’s a good ambassador already for the city and the team, but he can’t do this alone.

Fans saw their flaw in thinking almost immediately, and called them on it. National Media, who know the limitations this team has, even if they won’t admit it freely, jumped on to add in their 2 cents about what this team should have, could have done.

The thing is, when that scene up there occurred, no matter how good they thought Skenes was going to be, nobody predicted he’d get here, and be one of the best in the game before the All Star Break the year after being drafted.

And they were caught with their pants down. My question is, why didn’t you buy a belt this offseason?

The truth is, they, meaning the team weren’t ready for the firestorm that came with him. From a system development standpoint, from a financial investment standpoint, even from a place of understanding how the landscape would shift they missed. They weren’t prepared for payroll to jump, just go up marginally in 2025, and instead of realizing Paul Skenes required a change in the plan they established before he even transferred to LSU, they figured, well, fans will get it, they’ll be happy with just improving, and how could we not with this guy?

Wrong again.

Lastly, Fans weren’t ready. Pirates fans have had exactly one player like this. Gerrit Cole was good, and had huge expectations, but he didn’t start like this at all. The first thing fans thought here in Pittsburgh, what year will we trade him?

It’s so hard to “trust the process” when the process hasn’t worked, and you know based on experience that extending this guy was going to be a pipe dream before he even threw a pitch.

Thusly, he hasn’t brought the excitement that the organization thought he would, mostly because they can’t dispute it comes with an end date, and even if they could, we know it’s fairly likely they won’t.

They can’t fix everything here. It’s just not on the table in this league, not structured like this, but were they to do something out of their character like find a way to extend him 5-6 years beyond arbitration, I do believe fans would at least understand it’s not all going to come crashing down in 2028 or 2029.

Skenes changed the game literally, and figuratively.

2. “Cloud over the team” Andrew McCutchen

Andrew was asked by Kevin Gorman of the Trib about what it’s like hearing the chants of “sell the team” or boos for his manager and teammates.

“I understand where they’re coming from. I’ve been here long enough, so I get it,” McCutchen said Sunday morning, before the Pirates played the Cleveland Guardians in the finale of a six-game homestand. “I just hate it for the guys who haven’t been a part of it and haven’t been here for very long. They’re like, ‘Man, these people seem pretty upset.’ You have to go out there and try to perform and do well when there’s this cloud over the team.

“Obviously, everyone is trying their best. It’s tough when you’ve got ‘sell the team’ chants going on and you’re trying to compete and do well. It’s just hard, no matter what. You’ve got all that going on around you while you’re trying to focus on doing one thing well, and it’s hard to filter out the negative and focus on yourself at that moment. It’s tough. Now you’ve got guys who don’t play every day showing up in the lineup with that cloud over them, it becomes a challenge. The game’s challenging in itself but when you’re dealing with a lot of fans who seem to be fed up with the way things are going it makes it a little more challenging. All we can do is try to do our best as a club to try to block it out and try to win the ballgame, but I can’t control what they do, how they feel. I understand.”

So, a couple thoughts here. First, Andrew has expressed the part of this whole thing I’ve hated most and that’s the effect it has on the players, many of which have done nothing wrong but get acquired by the Pirates. Cutch spends a lot of time trying to convince that room that this is a great place to spend a career, and show that the fans love is undying if you do things the right way here as a player. I’m guessing he doesn’t try all that hard to convince anyone after a good chant filled game.

And then on lineup changes…

“You have to be consistent in every way,” McCutchen said. “I don’t know what that entails for us, but I know you are going to constantly have lineup changes and that’s what we seem like we do here. We have a lot of lineup changes. It’s not necessarily the same lineup every day. I think it’s just the more consistency we can find in the lineup and if it’s possible that we’re able to do it and we get some guys — I know that some guys are injured, get them back — maybe we get that opportunity to be more consistent as a lineup. As of right now, we just have to work with what we have and go out there and try to get the job done. That’s all you can do as players and as individuals, is to try and do your job. It’s a lot easier said than done. That’s what we have to do.”

The frustration fans have expressed over the past handful of seasons in regard to this subject, finally expressed by someone in that room.

Finally, someone who isn’t happy to be sitting. And vocal about it. Finally a player speaking to the importance of consistency in a lineup.

I’m not saying Cutch has open beef with Shelton, but this is very much so shots fired. He’s a player who has directly impacted this owner to change things in the past, and I have no doubt he understands the power his words carry here.

More than anything, congratulations, you aren’t crazy for hating the constantly changing lineups, Cutch just confirmed it’s a problem for him too, and he’s one of the very few in that room who have earned the right to speak to it.

This has a better chance of spawning change than any chant or sign in the ballpark. Its also why, despite playing tough competition on this trip, getting on the road, all the way across the country from Pittsburgh, maybe even playing too late to have fans notice, well, it might just be good for this club. They might get more cheers on the road than at home. That’s on them, but it’s kinda on us too. They’ve made the roster not good enough, we’ve made home feel like enemy territory for guys who again did nothing but get acquired here.

3. Spencer Horwitz Finally on Rehab Assignment

We’ve already traveled down the road of this season enough to know, even if Spencer Horwitz is a star, he alone is not turning this ship around.

That said, he was easily the “biggest” piece they acquired, and they’ve already been beaten by the guy they featured in the return. I think he’ll be good, and it’s great to see he’s progressing.

I think we’ll see him make his way back up here by early May, and again, that’s a good thing. This guy has hit in this league, and he did it on a team that doesn’t just hand out opportunity to youngsters like candy. In fact, he hit well enough that they played him out of position at second base where he struggled mightily, but the bat was good enough to keep playing him.

Its ok to be excited about him getting back, and to think he’ll help.

The hole is too deep to expect it to be enough.

Enmanuel Valdez has been handling the lion’s share of 1B playing time, especially after Endy Rodriguez hurt his finger, and he’s been hitting.

He too has 2B experience, and yes, he too isn’t a good second baseman. He also has been wielding a bat that will be hard to bench. I could make an argument that he’s been the Pirates second best offensive player.

So while I’m happy to get Horwitz back, I’m afraid it’ll come at the expense of one of the few who has been performing. Thus nullifying the injection of help to a degree. And I’m not even getting to Nick Gonzales returning, because frankly, I’ll take poor defense in exchange for offense to replace Adam Frazier. I won’t take that to replace Nick.

4. Try or Don’t, in Between Nets Nothing

Fans can be stone stupid. I don’t blame them, I mean, as a fan it’s not your job to see someone go 0 for 10 and force yourself to be happy about it.

But a baseball team needs to be smarter than that. They need to understand what a real opportunity looks like, how many at bats, or innings that is and then they need to drown out the noise and let the subject have a shot.

You know how frustrating it is to see the Pirates give a guy like Tommy Pham get the bulk of at bats in the first month, and I’m here to tell you, if they chose to do the same thing with Matt Gorski instead, you’d likely be frustrated again.

These aren’t the same situation though. Pham has 10 years of evidence, including 3 or 4 of him after beginning to trend downward.

Gorski is a stereotypical long in the tooth prospect carrying a poison pill.

Often what this team will do when they decide to give a guy like Gorski a shot, they’ll call him up, play him once, maybe twice a week and suddenly this kid who was tearing up AAA is now sitting around, facing better pitching when he does get a shot or pinch hitting against specialists late in a contest.

Then we’ll all look at his 2 for 30 over the span of 3 weeks and determine, he stinks, or the MLB coaches broke him, or the hitting coach messed him up.

Look, it’s a different level, it’s going to be harder. Add in not facing pitching regularly, it becomes really a lot harder. Add in having the process play over and over, up and down, back and forth a couple times and well, you start to make it impossible.

Gorski is just an example. Cheng was up here for 5 days and had 4 at bats. Peguero has had 3 stretches in the bigs. A cup of coffee in 2022, a more extended look in 2023 where he posted a .237 Average in 213 PA, with 7 homeruns and a .653 OPS.

In 2024 he was only given 10 plate appearances and he was up here for almost 3 weeks.

Those numbers in 2023, um, don’t look now but that’s a better pace than 75% of this current MLB roster.

It’s his last option year, our SS can’t play SS but can play 2B, and our starting 2B is injured.

Yeah, let’s just start Adam Frazier instead. In fact, lets call up Cheng instead, and not play him a lick.

Bring up kids, but you have to play them too, or else what you create is a sea of Quad A players that will either be ruined entirely or “discovered” at their next stop. We’ve seen this time and again. Even guys like Henry Davis, up and down, over and over and when he gets here, 2 games a week, maybe.

He’ll surely discover the secret formula for this level getting 4 at bats every 4 or 5 days.

Some of these guys just aren’t going to make it, I get that, and you know I get it, but Endy Rodriguez starts, plays in 15 of the first group of games, 50 PA, hitting .178 following up his extended look in 2023 of 204 PA hitting .220.

OK, why him and not some of these other guys? That’s the right way to see what you have so I don’t hate it, but where has this grace been for Alexander Canario, should I assume first ballot Hall of Famer Tommy Pham is holding him back?

Think back to Bryan Reynolds. He was called up in 2019 because of a catastrophic injury to Starling Marte, and he hit, then Hurdle sat him, he played and hit again, then Hurdle sat him, then again, he played and hit and Hurdle said, ok let’s see where this goes, he went on to finish 4th in Rookie of the Year voting.

Why? Because they gave him an extended shot and did the rarest of rare things, he hit in a couple of the very few opportunities they planned to give the youngster who was supposed to fill in for an emergency and head back down, after all he had only had 54 PA in AAA.

There is no success without opportunity, but in baseball, you can fail while never being given a chance fairly easily.

The main point here really should be, you’d be better off if you weren’t experimenting all that much at this point of a build. Good teams have maybe 1 situation like this in a given year and if injury related, the opportunity lasts about that long, and they get most of the time to give it a shot.

5. Is There Really Any Chance This Management Team Survives 2025?

I mean, yeah, but it looks a lot like one of those TikTok videos where a guy throws a checker down a flight of stairs into a checker sized slot in a box. They often don’t show you the 1,419 attempts before it finally went in.

Is there a lane? Sure, but, well, you’ll see, when I lay this out, your first comment is going to be something along the lines of “yeah f’ing right Gary!”.

So here’s my list of things that would have to happen. Also, don’t pretend this list is designed to make you happy, it’s not, it’s intended to be just enough to potentially placate the owner and cause him to run it back.

  • They have to best .500. It’s not good enough, especially for where they are right now, but it is the bare minimum. I think there’s a fair shot Shelton would still be replaced here, but if they don’t get to this point, it’s over, and probably for all three of them.
  • It’s fine what Paul Skenes has said so far, Cutch too, but it can’t go a lot farther than that. If it starts getting into openly questioning the roster or other players, or even the efforts of some players, it’ll be very hard to run it back next year.
  • Don’t finish in the bottom two of the division. As with point 1, not good enough, but it could at least be painted as progress of some sort. The caveat here is they’d have to fall on their sword and admit they didn’t have enough this year, they miscalculated, they’ll do better. Problem is, this message would only have any effect on Nutting, not fans, so I doubt it helps.
  • Have Henry Davis, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Gonzales types make some noise this year. It’s going to take this in order to have any possible chance fans see next year in a better light. There’s zero chance they believe you’ll go out and sign better next year, so it better start showing itself internally.
  • Swing a big trade for lower level prospects fans aren’t very familiar with and have the return last beyond 2025. In other words, improve the team without stealing any of your perceived “can’t miss” prospects. MUCH easier said than done, but how else is a GM on the edge to prove themselves?
  • Sounds simple, but Williams can’t have any more PR problems. And I don’t mean the little blips that disgruntled fans try to blow out of proportion, I mean real dumb moves that embarrass the boss, and hurt the fans. And you know the difference. It’s like when you hate a restaurant, and your friends want to meet there, believe me, you won’t have a good experience, because that wad of gum in the urinal will become rant worthy at the table. Feel me?
  • Extend either Oneil Cruz or Paul Skenes. End of list, and honestly, this could be the hardest to pull off out of all of them. Obvious reasons. People are most pissed off because you’re wasting time with these guys, and they know damn well they’ll be gone. Well, prove to them at least on this, they’re wrong.

I’m sure there are more, but this list is already likely well beyond reality, so I can either pile another shovel or two on the grave or call it a day cause the casket is long since covered.

Why Firing Your Manager Mid-Season Is A Bad Idea – Until It Isn’t 

4-21-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates are off to their worst start since 2020, when they started 6-17 en route to the worst record in MLB. While they don’t technically have the worst record in baseball currently, beginning a season 8-15 when you are in year 6 of a rebuild isn’t going to endear fans to the organization – and certainly not to the boys at the top of the food chain.

While the “Sell The Team” chants during home games are clearly targeted at one specific individual, perhaps pivoting to target another should be the method for igniting this team moving forward.

I wrote over Spring Training about how Manager Derek Shelton was on the hot seat heading into this season, already holding the 2nd worst managerial winning percentage in franchise history (minimum five seasons) behind just Billy Meyer – and Meyer at least had one winning season in that putrid 5-year stretch.

In fact, only nine active managers have been in their current roles longer than Derek Shelton – 6 of whom led their teams to pennant-winning seasons, 2 more have claimed division titles and the other one, inexplicably, is the Colorado Rockies.

I get that Shelton hasn’t always had the best options to play on the field but when given options to put the team in the best position to win, more often than not, Shelty has flopped.

And I’m not talking lineup construction – though that could probably be a whole other article – but the amount of times he went to David Bednar or Colin Holderman with the game on the line when they repeatedly showed that they didn’t have it, or how he will play a recently called up prospect so intermittently that they have no chance to get into a groove and find any level of success while veterans continue to struggle and show that they are who we all know they are.

Yes, Ben Cherington signed Tommy Pham and Adam Frazier and yes, neither of them are proving anything offensively – but just because these pieces are in Shelton’s arguably awful toolbox doesn’t mean those are the ones he has to use.

This team is going to rise or fall with the players who are here and have been here: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Skenes, Keller, Jones – these are some of the guys in place but Shelton fails to optimize the opportunities presented with these players time and time again.

His seat is no longer warm; it’s on fire!

The common refrain is “What good does it do to fire a manager now?” Plenty of managers are canned during the offseason or, at the very least, much later on in the year.

This past offseason, the Reds canned David Bell and the Marlins moved on from Skip Schumaker. The previous offseason saw five organizations obtain new skippers.

There are only two active managers who took over their teams during the MLB season: Brian Snitker of the Braves (2016) and Rob Thomson of the Phillies (2022).

Let’s start with Snitker: While he didn’t post a winning record after taking over for Fredi Gonzalez, who led the Braves to a 9-28 start, he helmed a solid ship with a 59-65 record the rest of the way. The team was comprised of Freddie Freeman and not much else and Snitker managed to get much more out of them than he probably should have, earning a chance at managing the team beyond that season and into eventual World Series glory.

By contrast, Thomson took over for Joe Girardi in Philadelphia – a team which expected to contend heading into the 2022 campaign after an 82-80 season the year prior but who failed to get much traction early, losing 4 of their first 5 series and 7 of the first nine.

After stumbling to a sub-optimal 22-29 record – which included a stretch where they lost 12 of 15 games – Phily’s brass decided to cut bait on Girardi and let the then-Bench Coach Thomson take over. The Phillies surged after that, winning 14 of their next 16 games and eventually claiming the NL pennant.

Sure, there are plenty of instances where a skipper gets canned and nothing improves. There are, possibly, times where a new manager leads the team to an even worse record than their predecessor.

But here’s the thing, what do we have to lose at this point when we know what Shelton brings to the table is five losing seasons and is barreling towards a sixth?

He’s potentially alienating Skenes. He’s almost definitely alienating Cutch. The clubhouse is fracturing as the losses pile up so how much more do we need to see here?

Make the change. Play the kids. Stay aggressive on the bases and act like you want to be here and want to win games. Maybe there will still be fans roaring to sell the team but if the team is playing better and winning games, odds are the roar of the crowd will be a lot more positive and a lot more plentiful going forward.

Starter Spotlight: All-In On Allen

4-20-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Looking to avoid being swept for the second weekend in a row, the Pirates will have to face off against Cleveland’s surging southpaw, Logan Allen.

Allen is in his third MLB season, entering play today with a 1-1 record and 2.30 ERA over his first 15.2 innings pitched, relying mostly on pitching to contact as opposed to missing bats with just 11 strikeouts and 9 walks on the season as he has one of the worst K/BB rates among starting pitchers with 10+ innings pitched this year.

The soft-tossing southpaw has generated positive results due to his ability to limit hard contact and induce ground-balls at a high rate.

Allen features three fastballs: low-90s 4-seamer, high-80s sinker and mid-80s cutter. He adds in a low-80s changeup and a high-70s sweeper, which has become a main putaway pitch for the lefty.

The 26-year old Allen locates the 4-seamer up in the zone, generating above-average rise away from righties while working his sweeper and changeup low in the zone to change speeds and eye line.

While hitters have been getting good results against the changeup, this has been more due to luck as the exit velocity and launch angle some batted ball luck. On the other hand, his 4-seamer’s oBA of .091 appears unsustainable given the same criteria and taken into account his career .289 BAA on the offering.

Attack the high heat and lay off the low breaking stuff with less spin and look for something that you can barrel up.

If hitters have to swing down on the ball today, they’re going to drive it right into the ground. If they can swing up more, they’re going to have better chances of flipping the ball into shallow outfield or giving it a trip to the grandstands.

It’s Going to Take a Miracle to Improve this Pirates Team in 2025

4-20-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s kind of appropriate as we celebrate Easter that I write a piece about needing a miracle to resurrect this putrid offense. The thing is, I actually think they have enough parts and pieces, used correctly, and enough pitching to at least get back to playing respectable baseball.

I mean, I’m not sure where some of you had your expectations this year, but I thought they should have .500 in the bag, and if they brought in help where they needed it, maybe a wildcard or even a division win in a down year for the NL Central.

I think for the most part, we’ve seen that kind of pitching. I know, you can read me Holderman and Bednar’s early season stats, but for the most part, they’ve done quite well. And they aren’t even at full strength, so, I’d say it’s lived up. Has a really solid chance to wind up better.

The offense, well, I thought they’d struggle to score when I saw the finished product of their offseason, because honestly, in some ways they got worse. Some nice bullpen pieces, Andrew Heaney is looking good, but hell I’d take the early season Connor Joe we kinda got used to instead of Pham. I mean, you could have quite literally just tendered a guy who is sitting on the Padres bench with 4 at bats. Completely unironically, you’d have been better off.

Yes, I’d have still complained. Yes, I’d have still said you didn’t do enough. But I wouldn’t be sitting here telling you that you actually took a step back and paid about 1 or 1.5 million more than you had to in the process.

I don’t have some angst about losing Joe, please don’t take this example too far here, but Chapman out for a buncha dudes, has been effective, and has left the back end kind of in descript.

Anyway…

Lets try to make the most of it. Because honestly, I think there are ways we could be getting more offense just out of what’s here right now, or even on the 40-man.

Here are the things they have to do.

1. Remember Cutch Can Play the Field a Little

That’s all. I’m not asking you to start him every night, I’m just asking you to remember he has the capability, and use him in the field to open up the DH spot for lengthening the lineup.

Again, this doesn’t have to be a lot, just once or twice a week, DH 2 or 3 times. That’s it. Gives you the ability to do a lot of things with this lineup, first and foremost, keeping Cutch’s bat in the lineup.

It may be wrong to see a 38 year old as one of your best bats, but he is, and hey, it’s not my fault. I’m not asking for Cutch to play everyday, I’m just asking that we try to be more flexible with his use in an effort to strengthen the lineup.

2. Recognize Bench Players vs Regulars

Yes, it would be easier to just say they never should have signed, acquired, you get what I’m saying. Let’s just deal with the reality of what is, not what should have been.

Tommy Pham is not a starter. Again, I’m not of the belief that he’s an MLB player anymore, but at the very least, there’s nothing interesting coming here. Even if he catches fire for a week or two at some point, it won’t be worth what you had to go through to get there.

Adam Frazier is an odd fit for this team. He’s played better defense than I thought he would, but the Pirates need to realize he should not be playing 5 or 6 times a week.

Now, if Gonzales were healthy, Frazier is used in a more practical way, I get that. For lack of a better way of putting it, shit happens. I can forgive them that much, but the fact remains, at this stage, we shouldn’t be so easily pushed to Frazier as THE option.

Look, it’s not like I think Alexander Canario, Jack Suwinski, Jared Triolo, or whomever you want to name have proven anything, or should be the starters themselves, but I know Pham and Frazier don’t have futures and their presents don’t look much better.

This is simple. You can have guys like this on your roster. You can’t have guys like this playing 5 or 6 games a week unless of course you’re trying to earn a chance to draft near the top of the board yet again.

3. Manage Underwhelming Players Effectively

If you’re trying to make a good recipe and you find yourself short of some little ingredient like a half cup of buttermilk, you could go to the store, or you could add some vinegar to your milk and mimic the effect.

Well, this team chose not to buy buttermilk, and instead of finding a creative way to replace its place in the recipe, they’ve simply decided to use regular milk and hope it still tastes ok.

It won’t.

This team needs to bunt, run, hit and run, run and hit and in general take advantage of any little crack of light they see to help inferior players contribute.

They made this bed, and frankly, they don’t have the right players to even accomplish this well, but they have to try. It’s what they created.

They have very limited power, so walks need to be punished in some way. They have the MLB stolen base leader on their team, and the league is so unafraid of walking him that he’s in the top 20. Why? Because even if Cruz gets on, gets himself to second base, it’s a solid bet he won’t be worked around the bases.

That needs to change. First, so Cruz sees some pitches worth hitting, but also because teams can’t continue to just play hopscotch through the lineup. There must start being a penalty for pitching around the very few who could do damage, and the only way that changes is if teams start paying for it.

Walk Cruz, well, he needs to score at least 50% of the time the way this team is built. It’s a lot to ask, but if they simply focus on making productive outs when he gets on, it’s entirely doable.

It’s not how an effective offense looks in this league today, but again, you have to use the supplies you brought on the trip, there’s no general store west of the Mississippi you know…

4. Enough with the Ritual Resting of Regulars

I know modern sports value resting players regularly. I get it, I just don’t think this team has the luxury.

Again, they could, if they’d call up their best bets at good ball players, and their bench wasn’t filled with ball players who probably shouldn’t be anymore.

As it stands, Reynolds, Cruz, Bart, Hayes, IKF, they all need to play as much as possible. Can’t just arbitrarily rest them, you certainly can’t do it in some one by one conveyer belt because all that creates is 4 or 5 games in a row where you use less than your best lineup.

There needs to be more situational reasoning to it. If you lose the first two games of a series, well, I’m sorry, if you planned to rest Reynolds on game 3, he should have performed better in games 1 and 2 to earn it.

I’m aware of what I’m asking for here, and yes, it could lead to a group of players with their tongues wagging by August.

Frankly, I don’t care. Winning games with this roster doesn’t leave room for compassion or caution.

5. Bigger Changes

It’s not in the spirit of this piece, but the thing is I don’t feel those changes are on the table with this manager. He’s had 5+ years to try something different, and either he has no will to make changes, or he’s being told what to do.

I honestly don’t care which is true, the result is unequivocable. If the GM is standing in the way, well, bye.

The season is off to a sputter start, a wholly predictable sputter start mind you. If you want to change course, it stands to reason you have to um…Change something.

This team is being coached like the 2021 roster. We might as well be trying out Michael Chavis or Ildemaro Vargas. Hell, Ben Gamel might be better than Pham. Know what, when you look at it like that, it’s entirely understandable why Shelton hasn’t grown as a coach, he’s never been given enough better options to even pretend.

Change is always going to come, no matter what you’re talking about. When you know that to be true, it’s better to be the author of it, than the evidence it’s happening. Loyalty, and stubborn adoption of failed ideas will ultimately be the downfall of both Cherington and Shelton, especially since bluntly it’s been too late for a while already.

Carmen Mlodzinski Should Move Back to the Bullpen

4-19-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Before I start here, I owe you an apology.

I’ve taken on Locked On Pirates, kept on with the Pirates Fan Forum, but just about all I’ve had time to manage here is to keep up with 5 Pirates Thoughts every Monday. Michael Castrignano has been and remains an absolute godsend for this site.

You all are my original audience, and I owe you better. I will make more of an effort here, I just needed to get my bearing with the new gig so I could do it justice. Now that I feel I have, it’s time to reintroduce my original baby back into the equation.

Now, onto the topic.

Carmen Mlodzinski is to be commended for wanting to try being a starter in MLB. It’s been his dream since high school ball in Hilton Head, it’s what he was drafted as, it’s what he trained as all the way through the system until he actually had a chance to make the team, then the Bucs made the switch.

All that said, this experiment has gone on long enough now. Both for him, and the team.

For one thing, Carmen has just about irreparably damaged his season numbers. While I have every confidence he’ll go back to the pen and succeed, it’ll take quite some time of being almost perfect to work his numbers back to palatable.

This doesn’t mean he or the team were wrong for trying it.

First, the player wanted it, and lest you think that was all it took to make it happen, do recall if Jared Jones had been healthy, he’s here, and Carmen is likely in the bullpen already.

Second, the team drafted him in what amounts to the first round, yes, comp picks are different but he is considered a late first round selection, so they saw and bought into the pedigree long ago.

To his credit, he tried to do it without losing any of his “stuff”, but learning how to face a lineup 2 or even 3 times is a skill set that you almost can’t learn until you’re asked to do it. In the minors, 75% of the lineup won’t gain much of an advantage seeing a guy throw more than one at bat, in MLB, 25% might not.

He’s pitched in 4 games, 1 was a legitimate “ok” start, the others were decent opens, decent long relief outings capped by a drubbing.

If the Pirates had no options, ok, keep going, see if a few more outings manage to help him find a way to get deeper in games, but as we sit here, they do have options, though, not as many in a state of readiness as you’d hope.

Let’s talk about room and how to make it.

First things first, it looks like David Bednar will return and I’d imagine that’s in exchange for Chase Shugart or Kyle Nicolas. I’d recommend Nicolas as I’d have not called him up yet in the first place based on what he did in AAA.

So if we are to move Carmen Mlodzinski back to the pen, I guess my first question would be, for whom?

Like, let’s make the space for him back there before we just decide its the obvious play.

I suppose Shugart, but he hasn’t done anything wrong. I guess you could decide to move on from one of the lefties, but honestly, they’ve all pitched well, including Wentz the other long man option in the pen.

I think I might be inclined to move him to AAA, to either keep working on stretching out and performing as a starter, or, even if put back in the pen, work to get his mix back in order for that gig.

See, Carmen added pitches to his mix for the starting opportunity, and that’s fine, he can even keep using them, but it’s hard to maintain a big arsenal when you pitch an inning at a time. In other words, if you are likely only going to throw 20 pitches or so in an inning, you aren’t going to get to your 4th or 5th best very often.

So, essentially, punish Shugart for Carmen not making it as a starter, or send him down.

OK, so we need a new starter.

First thing here is, they could just technically keep him in the role, and either predetermine to bring in Wentz for the 4th inning or, they could treat Wentz as an opener for Carmen.

Presuming they don’t want to do that, you have Carson Fulmer who’s off to a great start in AAA and while not on the 40-man, he has a lot of experience and he’s stretched out more than anyone else in Indianapolis.

Braxton Ashcraft has looked underwhelming in his 4 starts. He’s turned it around a bit recently, but he was really off to a bad start and honestly, he has a lot of the same characteristics as Mlodzinski whom we’re labeling a project.

Bubba Chandler has been unhittable, but he’s also been prevented from stretching himself out at all. 3 outings, 10.2 innings. He’s on the Skenes path, for sure.

Thomas Harrington has more innings in MLB than AAA early on here, he might make the most sense, but he showed us he has some work to do didn’t he?

Mike Burrows looks the most polished of those who have been stretched a bit, and also being on the 40-man, he could make some sense as he’s already had his cup of coffee in 2024.

So, they have some options, but I wouldn’t expect any of them to jump in and look like twice the pitcher Carmen is.

I’m not sure they’ll agree with me. They might feel another start or two is appropriate here for Carmen and for whomever they’d replace him with, but I can’t help but feel Moving Carmen to the pen would strengthen that unit.

It may not be that anyone “deserves” to be sent down to make room for him, but they simply may have to make a call that having Carmen is more important than carrying 3 lefties. That would be a hard choice for me, they’ve all performed, Mayza has probably done the least, but even he’s been good when they’ve called on him.

I’m also not 100% that the team is prepared. They may need to change the build up for at least someone in the starter pool down there in Indy, unless of course they do plan to use the veteran Fulmer.

No matter what, this situation isn’t as cut and dried as it may appear on the surface. I feel it’s time to end this, I’m just not 100% how they should approach that effort.

Starter Spotlight: A Very Lively Pitch Mix

4-19-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pirates turned in a too-little, too-late offensive outburst last night but will try to get more done against the starting pitcher today as Paul Skenes will look to oppose visiting veteran righty, Ben Lively.

Now in his second season with Cleveland, Lively is coming off a career-best year as he went 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA over 151 innings in 2024.

A bit of a journeyman, Lively has played parts of eight seasons between playing in the KBO, Cleveland, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati – who selected him out of the University of Central Florida in the 4th round of the 2013 Draft before trading him to the Phillies in 2014 for Marlon Byrd.

Lively enters play today with a 4.87 ERA over his first 4 starts, compiling 16 strikeouts to 7 walks in his 20.1 innings pitched.

He doesn’t do anything particularly well with only an above-average extension, which allows his stuff to play up against opposing hitters, especially given his rather diverse arsenal.

His pitch mix includes 7 different offerings: a 4-seamer and sinker (each averaging 89-90), a cutter, changeup and slider (low-80s) and each a sweeper and curve (around 77-78).

Lively leans mostly on the fastballs and sweeper but mixes in the cutter/slider up and in against righties, pivoting to the curve/changeup down and in against lefties.

Given his eclectic pitch mix, it will take more than eliminating a pitch or two for Bucs bats to be effective. They will need to key in on specific offerings and wait to attack them.

Lefties in particular have been a problem for Lively’s secondaries, batting .500 against the changeup and .571 versus his curve.

For right handed hitters, his sinker can often hang over the plate with similar spin to his fastball. Opposing batters have 7 hits in 25 at-bats against the offering, allowing pull-happy hitters to drive balls down the left field line.

Another thing to keep in mind: Lively has been ELITE first time through the lineup before falling apart after that. That’s not to say that Pirates hitters can’t get hits against him but that they might want to be more wary of his offerings to exploit them in subsequent trips to the plate.

It’s a different kind of challenge opposing the Bucs today but not one that they can’t overcome and, with these strategies, they should be able to break through against the Guardians starter.

Cleveland Guardians (9-9) at Pittsburgh Pirates (8-12)

4-18-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It’s always interesting when two teams who were trade partners in the offseason face each other afterwards. We’ll see Luis Ortiz from the jump, while the Pirates side of the deal remains on the IL.

Statistically speaking, the Pirates have a better pitching staff and the Guardians have their number offensively. No matter how you look at this series, these are closely matched teams.

4/18
Cleveland – Luis Ortiz – 1-2, 6.06 ERA, 15K, 6BB, 1.41 WHIP
Pittsburgh – Carmen Mlodzinski – 1-2, 6.23 ERA, 14K, 6BB, 1.77 WHIP

4/19
Cleveland – Ben Lively – 0-2, 4.87 ERA, 16K, 7BB, 1.33 WHIP
Pittsburgh – Paul Skenes – 2-1, 2.96 ERA, 26K, 3BB, 1.82 WHIP

4/20
Cleveland – Logan Allen (L) – 1-1, 2.30 ERA, 11K, 9BB, 1.40 WHIP
Pittsburgh – Mitch Keller – 1-2, 4.30 ERA, 17K, 8BB, 1.35 WHIP

Guardians: Steven Kwan was crazy good in 2024, and he’s off to an even better start to 2025. In 71 ABs he’s hitting .310 with an OPS of .815 along with 3 dingers. In his last 7 games he’s slugging .516. Kwan is a star, and he’s playing like one.

Pirates: Caleb Ferguson has been almost unhittable. On the season in his 10 appearances he’s got an ERA of 0.90 in 10 IP with a WHIP of 1.00. Look, he’s not supposed to be a back end of the bullpen guy, that’s not why he was brought here, thank God he’s performed like one though.

Guardians: Kyle Manzardo has 10 hits in 54 at bats, 4 of them homeruns, but he’s batting .185 and when you have those kind of power numbers and still only have an OPS of .776, welp. His last 7 games he’s been even worse, hitting only .095.

Pirates: I only get one? OK, Bryan Reynolds has been mired this whole season really. He’s hitting .197 with an OPS of .608 and he’s been statistically right here all season long. He has to heat up if this offense has a chance to even support 3-2 style victories.

Guardians: Shane Bieber, John Means and Slade Cecconi are all out. Bieber is working his way back in a throwing program, Cecconi should be headed on a rehab soon and John Means was just placed on the 60-day IL

Pirates: Nick Gonzales, just back to putting weight on his ankle. Jared Jones, just had a clean scan, should start on some kind of progression soon. Johan Oviedo, new scan coming up on his LAT and elbow to determine path forward. Endy Rodriguez is out with a severe laceration on his finger that required stitches, should be out for the 15 days, but back to MLB isn’t a guarantee. Spencer Horwitz is about to embark on a rehab.

The Pirates have struggled on offense in general this season, but never more than when Mitch Keller is pitching. In fact, they haven’t scored a single run for him in his last two outings.

Starter Spotlight: Louie, Louie!

4-18-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

As the Pirates welcome the Cleveland Guardians to town this weekend, they’ll be seeing the return of Luis Ortiz, who was traded to Cleveland this past offseason as part of the Spencer Horowitz deal.

Ortiz was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, working his way through the system before debuting for the Bucs with some eye-popping stuff.

Over his tenure in Pittsburgh, Ortiz bounced between the rotation and bullpen posting a combined 3.93 ERA across 238.1 innings from 2022 to 2024.

He enters play today with a 6.06 ERA over his first 16.1 frames for the Guardians but is fresh off one of the best outings of his career.

While his fastball doesn’t reach the heights he displayed when he debuted, it still has some punch, averaging 96 up in the zone. Unfortunately for Ortiz, he hasn’t been effective with the offering with opposing hitters batting .318 and slugging .545 against it so far this season.

Ortiz adds in a mid-80s slider, low-90s cutter, mid-90s sinker and a high-80s changeup.

He’ll work the cutter up in the zone almost interchangeably against lefties and righties but stays lower with the other pitches, going slider/sinker heavy when facing right handed hitters and pivoting to the changeup as a secondary weapon versus lefties.

He leaned heavily on his cutter in his last outing but was seeing swings-and-misses on his 4-seamer, with 8 of his 17 whiffs and 6 of his 10 strikeouts coming against the pitch.

Buccos need to be geared up for the high heat. Ortiz has struggled with locating his secondary stuff in the past and if you can spit on those and sit on the fastball, Ortiz might have a very short and very bad welcome back to the Burgh.