Three starts, 17.2 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA, 28 Strike outs and just 3 walks. The kid can hit triple digits on the radar gun and has graded 60 plus breaking and off speed stuff.
So it makes sense to see many calling for Roansy to get a hasty call up to AAA, he’s clearly flirting with perfection in the early going of his AA stint with the Curve.
He last pitched in 2019 for High A Charleston in the Yankees system and showed quite well there too. Of all his impressive stats there, quite possibly none were more important than his durability. This isn’t a big bodied guy and the rub on him was questionable ability to handle the workload. He’s done that.
Next question was does he have the ability to increase his velocity. For the Yankees he could touch 96-97 but his resting heartbeat if you will on his heater was 93-94. He of course did so during the prospect dead period and it’s to the benefit of the Pirates, because if he had shown that or his spin rate of 2400-2500 RPMs there’s a solid chance he isn’t added to the Taillon deal.
Point is, Contreras is better right now than any of his scouting reports would have you believe he had in him. The best projection I found had him listed as topping out around the back end of a rotation, and it’s really hard to watch him pitch and believe that’s still his ceiling.
I’ve seen a ton of people calling for his immediate promotion to AAA Indianapolis, others have even started saying he’s being slow walked by the Pirates.
Now, how you call a kid with under 20 innings completed in a level of baseball brand new to him held back is a mystery to me. You can think he’s ready and still not believe he’s being stifled.
So, is he ready? I mean, maybe. I don’t see him getting crushed in AAA, he probably could do just fine there, but moves as with the big club don’t come in isolation. We first have to look at what’s going on in both MLB and AAA, because promotions won’t come without a corresponding demotion or promotion.
The Indians have a 6 man rotation going on, Cody Ponce who was just called up for a spot start in Pittsburgh, Miguel Yajure who is probably the first guy who will make the permanent jump to the bigs, Chase De Jong a veteran, Beau Sulser, James Marvel and Steven Wright. Now, let’s be honest here, Sulser and Marvel aren’t really threatening to make the jump anytime soon. Wright was a flyer taken on a 36 year old knuckleballer.
The Pirates could make room right now if they so chose, but a shuffling of the deck chairs is coming in MLB as well. In fact with Chad Kuhl, Jose Soriano and Steven Brault all making their way back up, they may already have to move a Wil Crowe or Mitch Keller (although I’d prefer they stay the course here) back down to accommodate room.
You will often hear scouts say they want to see a good half season from prospects before a promotion, and I’m not here to tell you that’s gospel, lord knows everything that baseball lifers believe doesn’t jive with the modern game, but for the most part, a step up needs to come with a well defined map of the foot holds and hand grips to keep him there.
Is three games enough for that? Maybe, but maybe it’s ok to let him just continue to work where he is until the parent club starts burning through more of the excess arms Ben Cherington brought in here in the first place before they do so.
I’m starting to feel like a bunch of people forgot how the minor leagues work after so many players earned promotion via their work at the alternate training sites last year. Partially because it was fairly forced into existence baseball people have talked themselves into believing what happened at those sites was akin to a full season of play, I guess for some that will be true, for others it won’t be, but again until the Pirates make some inevitable trades or decide players like Wright have no place in the organization Roansy is fine where he is.
Come late June or Early July, we’ll revisit this I’d imagine. By then he’ll most likely have had a game or two that showed some dings in his armor but he should still be very much so on track.
This isn’t a Huntington slow walk, not yet. Right now it’s a testament to just how much pitching Cherington brought in after only two off-season’s of work.
Calm down a bit, let the process play out. 17.2 innings isn’t enough to evaluate anyone, even with a .56 WHIP.
During the most recent Minor League off-season, an additional player assignment was put in place by the Commissioner of Major League Baseball, in consideration for the anticipated need that pitchers, positions players and hitters would need to have additional time to condition and/or develop their skills, as many of them had been away from the club, and any form of organized baseball for as long as 18 months due to the cancellation of the Minor League Baseball season. This specific player assignment has come to be known as the Developmental List; which I am sure many of you who keep a close eye on MiLB rosters and transactions have already seen.
These players count against the in-season Minor League 180-Man Domestic Reserve List, but does not count against each Minor League Team’s Active Roster. Thus far this season I have seen only a few players actually added to this list including a few members of the Pirates Alternate Site Roster, #8 Prospect according to MLB Pipeline, Brennan Malone and currently 22 year old Dominican right handed pitcher Estalin Ortiz. It had been reported by General Manager Ben Cherington that Malone had not been pitching at the beginning of the season due to a blister, however, at the time he was on the Developmental List; and no player is allowed to be on said list due to injury rehabilitation or disciplinary action from the club, although there are probably some ways around it, with exact wording and such.
Nevertheless, this is not the only way for players to receive individualized one-on-one development, beyond-while also including-the player centric approach that has been preached by Cherington and Manager Derek Shelton. Both Cole Tucker and Jared Oliva are prime examples of this, as the remained behind in Florida at the same time many of their teammates traveled north, in order to receive hitting instruction from Triple A Hitting Coach Jon Nunnally. We also saw Gregory Polanco take some time off to hit the cages, after some early season struggles; and even though this last type of occurrence is not that rare , it is more about the analytical approach they are taking during these sessions that I would pay more attention to.
As far as pitchers are concerned, I have to believe that in his down time between outings-sometimes extended down time, Rule 5 Pick Luis Oviedo is taking some time in bullpen sessions at the Pirates new lab, that we have started to hear rumblings about; not just being protected from extended work or being hidden in the bullpen. He is most likely working on pitch design, pitch shaping, video work, slow motion camera, Rapsodo/Trackman or motion capture type training, in an attempt to unlock his highest potential, as I see the Pirates preparing him for a rotation spot-most likely at Triple A-Indianapolis -to start the 2022 season.
Also if you have watched a player warming up this year, at times you may have noticed more than just Bullpen Pitching Coach Justin Meccage, a couple of catchers and a handful of other relievers milling around; and probably just assumed without thinking, after you saw the lanyards and a Pirates polo shirt, that there must be some sort of security or other PNC Park personal keeping an eye on the situation. In all actuality they are more than likely members of the Pirates Informatics Department; with their hand held tech, cameras and any other device imaginable to capture every bit of analytical data that could be useful.
Now many will point to the fact that the Pirates, and Cherington, have not really added to their analytics group since taking over for Neil Huntington and Company. I would however punctuate the changes in titles, responsibilities and overall usage of the staff at their disposal in order to provide the players and coaches with the most up to date material.
For the most part I have seen this as doing nothing, but benefiting the organization as a whole by playing of each individual’s strengths. Nevertheless, it can be totally ignored that not every pitcher or hitter needs to be messed with, or changed with the hope of finding the supposed best approach on the mound or at the plate. Sometimes, an adjustment to create launch angle can have unintended consequences because not every hitter can be made into a clean up guy, nor do they need to be. The same goes for a pitcher, who was comfortable with his delivery and command, but was toyed with to the point where they lose confidence in pitches they once found success with.
Of course, it ultimately makes sense at this point for the Pirates to utilize as much of the advanced analytics as they can; that’s where the game is going. However, the most important component of the entire process is using the information effectively, individually and consistently across the organization; from Pirate City to PNC Park.
This could easily be a whole bunch of woe is me after a weekend series like that in Atlanta. Just not my style. I was never under any illusions as to what this season would bring and while there will be bright spots as we keep unfolding the pages of this season there will certainly be more like what we just witnessed as well.
Ok, maybe some of these won’t be too positive, but we’re going to keep it fair.
1. It’s Not Hockey, but a Power Play is Still Crucial to Team Success
There are two things MLB teams that aren’t blessed with nearly unlimited resources can’t buy. Top of the rotation pitching, and game changing power.
The Pirates are part of that much larger group that has to develop those things and let’s face it, for the most part as an organization they’ve not done it very well. Oh, sure, there was Pedro Alvarez, and Gerrit Cole, heck I’ll even give you Andrew McCutchen although he was more of a complete player than simply a power hitter.
Some of these much needed commodities are coming so long as they continue to develop properly. Maybe they have enough to ultimately create a good baseball team, maybe they need more to become great. The top 100 prospects change constantly and that accounts for players graduating, players ascending onto the list and players falling off.
To avoid the pitfalls of many teams like them, they must continue the job. Hedge your bet and make sure instead of waiting for 8 guys, there are 8 more who have just as good a chance to get there.
The team we’re watching today is so devoid of power they simply can’t win unless everything goes right, and that’s a likelihood that isn’t going to happen often. Moran and Hayes will help, they’ll make it more entertaining and make the stars align more often, but it will only serve to show how important even a little game changing power increases the chances of success.
2. Ke’ is Almost Back
In Ke’Bryan Hayes’ rehab assignment he has had 6 at bats and three hits, one being a homerun. In his 5 MLB at bats he had this season he of course hit a homerun. He’s missed all but 1 full game in 2021 and is only 3 homeruns behind the team leaders. The importance of his presence on this team is kind of impossible to overstate.
It’s not like it is preventing the team from competing for a division title or anything, but it seems like the Pirates miscalculated a bit when they placed him on the 60-day, because he’s pretty clearly ready, and now he’ll have to play out the string in AAA until June 3rd. Again, not a huge deal, but man this team needs a reason to hope, and I’m afraid hope’s name is Ke’Bryan.
3. What Will The Pirates Do When All These Guys Return?
In the coming days and weeks the Pirates will have a glut of players returning. Phillip Evans, Colin Moran, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Chad Kuhl, and a bit further out Jose Soriano and Steven Brault.
Now, that’s 6 players, 3 position, 3 pitchers. Some of these decisions will make themselves, like Tucker going back down to AAA is a no brainer but it’s going to be interesting to see how they handle this. Even Ka’ai Tom and Trevor Cahill could be back relatively quickly.
Vulnerable players currently on the roster are pretty obvious. Will Craig, Ildemaro Vargas, Cole Tucker, Miguel Yajure (assuming he gets the call up), Wil Crowe, Ben Gamel. I just listed 6 players, clearly there could be others chosen, clearly it doesn’t account for others returning beyond those 6. Suffice to say, they could just as easily tell Tom and Cahill to just stay away. Heck they could DFA Evans and keep Craig.
Point is, it’s going to be a very active couple weeks and if nothing else, it’s hard to be all that upset, the team needs much of what’s returning.
4. People Want a Correct Strike Zone, but Are You Willing to Accept All the Things That Come With It?
I’m tired of watching umpires miss strike calls too, but when it eventually changes to some form of robo umping there will be unintended consequences.
No, I’m not just talking about pitch framing. For one thing, I don’t think many people realize the evening effect human umpires have on the game. Hitters like Bryan Reynolds will absolutely rake. He’s got a tremendous eye, down to fractions of a baseball and if you add in a strike zone that never changes game to game, pitcher to pitcher, he’ll quickly acclimate to it and I expect him to destroy.
Problem is, he won’t be alone.
The art of pitching is in many ways about slight of hand. Tunneling the ball so it looks like every pitch is coming at the same plane before it breaks. The electronic strike zone being tested right now would quite literally only read the space above the plate. So, no more bending the ball around the strike zone, it’s now got to have at least part of it’s plane through the box.
It will hurt some hitters like Anthony Rizzo who use a fearless approach to hang over the plate as well.
This is a bigger change than just getting everything right, and I’m not here to tell you it’s right or wrong, as much as point out, no matter the intentions, rarely is a change this big without collateral damage.
Replay sounded like a great idea too, and if I could put that genie back in the bottle I would in a heartbeat. It’s destroying sports, in the name of correctness.
5. Adam Frazier Has Become What Some Hoped He Would
As I write this Adam is hitting .335 and shows no signs of slowing down. He’s getting hits in so many different ways, from so many different pitch types and to all fields it’s difficult to imagine him slowing down.
Now, we’ve seen this in spells from him before, but he’s never had a hot start to a season, and that could very well add up to being in the conversation for a batting title all season long. As Joe and Justin mentioned this morning, that very well could be for another team, but what he’s doing in a season where few are hitting is incredible.
Whether he does it in a Pirates uniform or somewhere else, quite possibly nobody is doing more for the Pittsburgh Pirates right now than Adam.
There are other options on the table, the Pirates could take a look around their organization and see nobody who’s going to push Adam aside is coming quickly and push to extend him, but in all likelihood, this is the hit we should be bracing for.
Yes, yes, farm team for the league, we get guys to be good then trade them, all that stuff. If you say these things, you don’t truly understand point number 1 in today’s piece. If you think it’s about money, you’re only right if you mean Adam might want too many years to have it make sense. No matter what happens, having a guy put up career numbers can only benefit the franchise.
Gary Morgan- I’d like to just take a moment to introduce Justin Verno and Joe Boyd. These are two guys who really love the intricacies of projecting player values and trade proposals. They’ve both agreed to take a crack at explaining the science behind it as well as provide you real world examples of what those formulas could lead to. Remember, it’s not about how much you do or don’t want a player dealt, it’s about what the Pirates could get and why. Have fun with this, and welcome both gentlemen to the site on Twitter @JV_PITT and @Joe_Boyd11. They both welcome conversation on this stuff.
Justin Verno- We are a little over two months away from July 30th-a day that should be considered a national holiday-the MLB trade deadline! There was a time when teams would wait until the deadline to make deals, but today’s MLB is driven by metrics such as WAR and wins above replacement teams are much more willing to make an early move and “buy” some wins. With that in mind, it’s time to examine trade values for our Pittsburgh Pirates.
Joe Boyd- Over the next several weeks, leading up to the trade deadline, we will have a new, 2-take, segment on values for potential trade candidates, and potential returns for those players. Both Justin and I will, independently, try to examine what goes into assessing value and what we can realistically expect Ben Cherington to get in return and then compare at the end. Having a finance background, the easiest way for me to evaluate a player is through dollars and cents. And the quickest way to visualize this, in my opinion, is through Surplus Value. This value is simply a player’s on-field performance (WAR) * the cost of 1 win minus the player’s salary. Fangraphs did an amazing study in 2018 that calculated the values of each level of prospect, so Surplus Value on one side of the scale can be balanced with Prospect Value on the other side. Here is how Fangraphs breaks out Prospect Value (in 2018):
POSITIONAL PLAYER
Prospect Type
2018 $ Value*
70
$112.00
65
$62.00
60
$55.00
55
$46.00
50
$28.00
45+
$8.00
45
$6.00
40+
$4.00
40
$2.00
35+
$1.00
35
$0.50
PITCHERS
Prospect Type
2018 $ Value*
70
$85.00
65
$64.00
60
$60.00
55
$34.00
50
$21.00
45+
$6.00
45
$4.00
40+
$3.00
40
$1.00
35+
$0.50
35
$0.00
Once we get to our first player, I’ll walk through an example of Surplus Value, as well. This is how I like to build my trade packages for Pirates players.
JV- As we build these values and suggest packages, it’s important for us to highlight a few things:
Every team has their own value systems, so predicting trades is never easy and is rarely correct.
Teams rarely take packages based on system needs, instead usually opting for the best deal on the table.
Lastly, this is for fun and starting the discussion. Have fun with it!
Player 1: Adam Frazier
JB: This will be the most lengthy/math-intensive submission. After Frazier, we can just plug in a few numbers to show how we get to a player’s value, but I think it’s important to show the work.
Frazier has been trade fodder for years now, and he has continually been thrown around in Pirate discussions especially since he has been hitting so well this season. Frazier is currently slashing .321/.387/.457 and he’s basically carrying the entire Bucco offense through the first 41 games. He currently sits at 1.2 Wins Above Replacement, which is very impressive this early in the season. To get a value for Frazier, we need to take into account his hot start, but also some regression, and project how the remainder of the year will go. If Frazier continues on this pace, we’re looking at a 4.5 WAR player which would be absolutely astounding. Those are Francisco Lindor or Ozzie Albies levels, right there. But that doesn’t pass the eye test. Frazier’s best season was in 2019 where he accounted for 2.2 WAR. Since he’s hitting so well this year, I would imagine it’s likely he eclipses that season, but for a range, we’ll go with 2.5-3.5 Wins Above Replacement has Adam’s on the field performance for 2021.
To add to the projection, Frazier is under control for next year, so we’ll need to account for that, as well. I think it’s best to leave this projection up to the professionals, so let’s go back to Fangraphs one more time for the ZiPS projection here. The 2022 ZiPS projection for Frazier is 1.5 WAR (this was made after his 2020 season, so they may make an upward change at some point, but I’ll leave it at 1.5 for now). The final piece of the puzzle is the salary. Frazier is making $4.3 M for the 2021 season and he’ll enter his final year of arbitration in 2022. For arbitration estimates, I go back to The Point of Pittsburgh’s study that shows that arbitration simply depresses the salary of higher valued players. Based on Adam’s track record, we could easily see a salary of $8-10M for his final season. For simplicity, I’m going to use a number that gets me a round total salary, so $8.7M for his estimated 2022 salary, for a total salary of $13M.
JV- Fangraphs are the go to here on the values for prospects, and Adam is on pace for his best WAR over a season in his career. This is a big factor in moving now as opposed to waiting for the off season. Strike while the iron is hot. A “wins” value changes from year to year, as low as 8 and high as 10 million per win so using 9 here is the safe bet. I have Frazier closer to 3.2 WAR. With 2 WAR of the remainder of the season and adding the 1.5 ZIPS projections next year. (ZIPs is likely to make an adjustment to next years projections soon enough, but lets forgo that for this exercise) giving us 3.5 WAR using 9 million for a win-
3.5×9=31.5 million 31.5-13=18.5 surplus
Note, I’ve made an adjustment to Fraziers salary being a third of the way into this season. If you use 8 and 10 million for the win value it gives us a range of 15-22 million for Frazier. I have Frazier at 18 million surplus. Now let’s have fun!
JV- Looking at the prospects values, the high end is a 50 FV player ($21 million). For those that have read up on the Pirates system, Liover Peguero is a 50 FV prospect as is Nick Gonazales. I find this a tough ask for Frazier. Is it possible they get a 50 FV player? Sure, and at this point I won’t put much past Ben Cherington, but I feel a 45+ or a 45 prospect they love will likely head the package with a solid 40+ or even another 45 as the potatoes. And I’ll use the familiar Pirates system again. The Bucs have one 45+ in Brennan Malone. I think most fans would be happy with another Brennan Malone in the system. Hudson Head is a 45, and most fans know that name. A lot of value can be had with a 45+ or a 45. Turning my attention to a 40+ FV, I see Roansy Contreras and Mason Martin. I think most fans would be happy with a package of a Malone and say a Mason Martin because they recognize those names.
I typically wait until I see a certain team connected to a player before building a package, but since we haven’t heard any yet I’ll use the Yankees since their fans have been buzzing about getting Frazier.
JV-Trade Partner: New York Yankees
Yankees get-Adam Frazier 2B($18 million surplus)
Pirates get- Antonio Gomez–C– ETA:2024 FV 45+($8M) A 19 year-old that will stick behind the plate, smooth hands and excellent arm. His body and bat have taken leaps and he could grow into his power.
Fidel Montero –RF– ETA: 2025 45FV ($6M) Montero is young and a late bloomer. His swing needs to be cleaned up, but there’s a lot to like here if he can shorten that up. He’s got a lot of raw power.
The Bucs could likely add one more piece here, but the meat and potatoes here gives them $14 million of good upside and at positions of need, something that we always don’t get back in a trade. That’d be a solid return for Fraizer.
JB-Trade Partner: Los Angeles Dodgers
So now that we’ve determined a value for Frazier, it’s time to take a look for a potential suitor and maybe build a prospect package that could come back for Adam. I wanted to look through the landscape of contenders and see if any had a hole at 2nd, specifically, or any that could potentially utilize a strong left-handed bat Utility player. Of the contenders, I settled on four as strong possibilities: Cleveland, Boston, San Francisco, and LA Dodgers.
I really felt that San Francisco would be a nice fit as they are a bit of a surprise team punching above their weight in a division with LA and San Diego. I also think they are building their team properly, so I highly doubt they’d move any major pieces for Frazier. I was dreaming on the potential of Hunter Bishop patrolling Left Field in PNC Park, while blasting homers into the Allegheny. But he’s a Bay Area kid and he just oozes athleticism, so I think that’s too big of a price tag for the Giants. So maybe we look at the perennial buyer to the South.
The Dodgers currently sit in 3rd in the division and in the 2nd Wild Card position. Right Handed Utility, Chris Taylor, has performed very well this season, but uber-prospect Gavin Lux has been fine, to below average. A pennant race is no time to run a guy out for at-bats. The versatility that Frazier could provide that lineup would be extremely valuable. Adding to that, Corey Seager’s injury may force Taylor to short, and the Dodgers would much prefer a proven veteran handling 2nd. And again, that versatility to platoon in the outfield or play any position on the infield would be extremely advantageous.
So what could a package for Frazier look like? Neal Huntington often looked for quantity over quality and preferred that quality be close to the majors. I always considered these players to have a high floor/low ceiling. In contrast, it appears that Cherington is taking the “windows” approach. By that, I mean that he is targeting a “window” of contention further away. If you look at the Marte or Taillon or Musgrove trades, the headliner talent acquired is further away from the majors. This strategy is two-fold. First, if you acquire a ton of talent that is expected to develop and arrive at the same time you have a higher likelihood that your roster will burst with talent at the same time, we’re assuming that not all of these prospects hit, and that’s okay! When trading for prospects further from the majors, it is okay to target shortstops or centerfielders when you already have some in the pipeline. If you go after the most athletic and skilled players, sometimes prospects will not pan out and then you have a backup plan. Or they all hit, and you can move them to positions that don’t require the athleticism (but they have it anyway!) or you can flip those players for positions of need. The second part of the strategy is that teams would be more willing to move those players. If your trade partner has developed a player all the way through the minors, they are not going to part with them right before the pay off. So this is where you can get a Liover Peguero-type player because the variance in a player that far from the majors is huge! He could absolutely flame out and the trade could look brutal, or he could bud into a major piece of your farm. Luckily for Pittsburgh, Peguero seems to be doing the latter.
So when looking for teams that match-up for return, I really like the Dodgers farm. They are a world brand, so they are able to attract International signings and two of those players come to Pittsburgh in this trade.
Wilman Diaz — SS — ETA: 2025 — 45 FV ($6M)
Diaz’s best tool is his hit tool. He was just signed in the 2021 International period, and he’s only 17! There is plenty of opportunity for Diaz to develop while climbing the system. He has above average speed and he’s graded by fangraphs as an average fielder and he has average power. But the ability to hit the ball is imperative for a prospect, and if he’s hitting at such a young age, it could bode well with him joining the team during their window of contention.
Diego Cartaya — C — ETA: 2023 — 45 FV ($6M)
Another International signing, Cartaya brings the power in this trade. He is not going to be a pitch framing star (although that can be taught), but he has a “prodigious field general” presence behind the plate according to Fangraphs. I’ll take that. He’s also described as an explosive hitter, and if he stays behind the plate, that’s an extremely valuable asset. MLB Pipeline compares Cartaya to Salvador Perez due to his size and leadership ability. As a teenage catcher, the track record is not there for Cartaya, but adding a strong prospect behind the plate to push (and be pushed by) Endy Rodriguez will be a major benefit to the team and to the farm.
You may note the Prospect Value != the Surplus value here. But this is an excellent example of how Cherington has handled deals so far for the Pirates. In this deal, he’s getting a 17-year-old and a 19-year-old with room to grow/develop from a natural and prospect standpoint. If over time either player bumps up in value to a 50-grade, then it’s a major win for Cherington. He moves Frazier, a solid contributor on a tanking team, for two players that play premium positions and have rare traits that could develop just in time to be a part of a future contender.
Parting Shots
JV- I love that we seem to have taken the same approach–four prospects that are young with a lot of upside, but the floor is low. I think in the end this is the kind of package we could ultimately see. Both looking at a C as a big piece of the trade puzzle, but the chances they get a catcher at all in this deal is likely 50/50? Despite both of us targeting a catcher I would suggest fans being patient, as the best package on the table should win out regardless of positions in the deal. That’s all I have for now. When we hear a specific team connected to Frazier we’ll revisit. Joe, who’s the next player we’ll take a look at?
JB – Really nothing to disagree with here. I do find it funny that both packages had a catcher. Not the intent, and did not seek out one, but nice if it worked out this way! As for the next player, I think that Rich Rod makes perfect sense. A controllable, dominant closer will be extremely intriguing to contenders at the deadline.
After Thursday Night’s extra inning victory over the Braves, it seemed as if the Pirates might be able to hang with one of the better teams in the NL East over the past few years in the four game weekend series. Now we know this obviously wasn’t the case after Pittsburgh’s offense was only able to put up one run a piece over the next three contests, and even the most reliable members of the Pirates rotation-Tyler Anderson and JT Brubaker-couldn’t hold up against Atlanta’s hot hitters.
After jumping out to a lead on a Bryan Reynolds RBI double, and having Brubaker sit down Freddie Freeman for the second out in the bottom of the first, I had some hope on this steamy Sunday afternoon. However, this was quickly dashed as a sharply hit single by Marcell Ozuna, a misplayed ball by Will Craig and an Austin Riley homer put Pittsburgh down 3 to 1. Then a couple of innings later, Riley would a two run jack to his already spectacular series, and that was all she wrote.
For the rest of the game the Pirates would only double their hit total from the first inning; going down with a whimper, 7 to 1 in the final game of the four game series.
News and Notes
Adam Frazier extended his current hitting streak to 9 games. He still leads the league in total hits.
Bryan Reynolds adds the offense from the right side yet again, as he hits his league leading 16th double on the season.
It would have been nice to see Brubaker keep his sub 3.00 ERA, however after two less than ideal starts it has ballooned to 4.20. The one positive I would take away from his outing today would have to be the seven strikeouts and zero walks.
The Pirates “Pitchers”, with Wilmer Difo included, surrendered 15 homers to the Braves in the four game series. Not surprising, this a new record.
I am still wondering why Cole Tucker was brought up from Triple A on Friday. Two at bats in three games doesn’t make much sense for a guy that needs to get his bat going.
The Pirates are off on Monday before they welcome the Cubs and the Rockies for three a piece at PNC Park.
As of right now Tuesday’s starter for Pittsburgh has not been announced, but General Manager Ben Cherington stated that it has been narrowed down to Cody Ponce, Miguel Yajure and Chase De Jong. I know most Pirates Fans are probably clamoring for Yajure again, yet, I am actually kind of curious to see how either Ponce or De Jong would perform on the big stage.
This is supposed to be a year of evaluation, so why not get a good look at everyone.
This is the beginning of a build, the perfect time to be patient with a young pitcher who needs to learn his lessons at this level.
This isn’t some cockeyed optimist stuff, I noted before the season I had far more faith in JT Brubaker than Mitch Keller, this year. Mitch is all about the ceiling, in fact that’s what all prospect rankings are based on, and as my friend Craig often says, the ceiling is great, but he doesn’t trust it as much as the floor.
The Pirates are not in win now mode, and it’s by design. There will come a point when they have to honestly evaluate what they’re trying to teach Mitch Keller with how he’s receiving and applying the instruction. He’s a talented kid, that’s not a guarantee he figures it out, he wouldn’t be the first to fail, but he’s dominated in the minor leagues and surely would again.
You don’t give up on a player like this, and if his lessons result in 20 losses for this baseball team in 2021, so long as he has learned and gotten to a good place by the end of the season it’s a win for the franchise.
Now you hear me say all that about Mitch and probably wonder why I don’t extend the same thing to Will Craig or Cole Tucker. Easy answer, neither of them have ever excelled in the minors. Now, if the Pirates have no first basemen as just occurred, I’m more than happy to give Craig a shot, he’s hit .250 which isn’t great, but in comparison to the rest of the lineup, is clearly not horrible. Cole Tucker is up here now and has only had 2 at bats, now what opportunity he gets, we’ll see, I expect it’s short lived.
Charlie Morton started his career in 2008 in Atlanta, a very talented pitcher with scary stuff who just couldn’t get out of his own way. 2008 ERA 6.15, 2009 ERA in 18 games for Pittsburgh was 4.55, in 2010 he had 17 starts and posted an ERA of 7.57.
A classic head case right? The coaches and Charlie himself talked about how he didn’t trust his stuff, wasn’t controlling his stuff. Didn’t believe in his sinker to the degree he needed to, and no this was not a round peg into a square hole situation, this was a guy who already had the sinker and pitching to contact in his DNA.
Finally, things sunk in and he stayed healthy in 2011. 29 starts, 171 innings and a 3.83 ERA. This earned Charlie an extension with the Pirates.
Four years.
He would struggle again after four more successful campaigns for Pittsburgh and moving on to Philadelphia in 2016, and then resurrected himself for Houston and Tampa.
This is one guy. I’m not trying to tell you this story is exactly what Keller’s path will look like, I’m simply saying, if teams were as quick on the trigger as many of you seem to want the Pirates to be with Keller, good luck ever cultivating a star.
Looking back, I still hear people talk about how Gerrit Cole ‘never gave his all’ here. Or was never ‘as good as he should have been’ here. He was a kid. He pitched here in Pittsburgh for 5 years, posting an ERA over 4.00 one time.
He was a number one overall pick. And he performed like one, he’s still performing like one. He didn’t come to the league looking like Cy Young, and a ton of people want to act like because he wasn’t polished in 2013 when he made his debut he just wasn’t that good.
It’s one thing to embrace a rebuild, not everyone is capable of actually understanding and accepting the process. That’s fine and I totally get it isn’t for everyone. Believing Bob Nutting will pay for players when they need them, hey, that’s another leap of faith that even I can’t get behind, that’s why I focus so much on the build and development, because I have so little faith that Nutting will spend.
I’d like to believe it, but I certainly don’t trust it.
That being the case, you better start accepting that young players typically play like young players. Development doesn’t stop in AAA, and if you want to flush a former MLB top 10 prospect after 25 starts, all I can do is thank the good lord you aren’t a GM.
None of this makes the process easy to watch, but regardless it has to be done. And it will happen again, with pitchers like Quinn Priester, Brennan Malone, Tanaj Thomas, Cody Bolton and any other top tier pitchers you can think of. Some of them will step right in and look like they have it together, JT Brubaker has done that, Wil Crowe has steadily grown, Miguel Yajure has looked fabulous in spots starts, but the journey isn’t easy.
Patience is a virtue, and building like this it’s a prerequisite.
The Braves lineup is built to deliver haymakers until they connect enough and you submit. Leading the league in homeruns and each and every one of them is damn proud of it. Love ’em or hate ’em, the Braves are exactly what baseball has been geared toward, explosive offense that doesn’t fear the strikeout.
I like watching them play, the lineup is a murderers row when they’re all swinging it and just about everyone not playing centerfield this weekend would lead our Pirates in dingers.
I have been watching the Braves build this team for half a decade now, not because I like the Braves, as much as I loved the approach they took to get here.
Let’s just take a quick look here. After losing the 2013 NLDS to the Dodgers, the Braves embarked on a rebuild. They held onto anchor 1B Freddie Freeman, and went to work. for 4 straight years they finished under .500 while they amassed talent and finally in 2018 the emergence of Ronald Acuña Jr. that season’s Rookie of the year.
They acquired Acuña in the International Free Agent Market in 2014, Ozzie Albies in 2013, William Contreras in 2015. They traded Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to Arizona for Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson the 2015 number 1 overall pick and drafted Austin Riley in the first round back in 2015.
Most of the pitching staff was drafted or acquired as a prospect with the notable exception of the free agents they added like Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly.
A slow build, and the only thing they spent money on for a few years there was Freddie Freeman. It’s the right way to build, and they’re poised with young talent to keep it together. They’re to be admired, even if you can’t stomach watching your team get their brains beat in against them.
So, on to today’s game right?
Mitch Keller just didn’t look sharp tonight, giving up 5 runs in five innings and seemingly backsliding on the slider he had worked so hard to introduce last outing.
Didn’t seem to be the same old same old this time out though, he didn’t look overwhelmed or frustrated per se but he also gave up some hard contact and the slider looked like it was hanging all day.
Bucs lose 6-1 to Atlanta with a chance to split the series tomorrow. JT Brubaker vs Max Fried at 1:20PM in Atlanta.
News & Notes
Braves starter Bryse Wilson only surrendered one run and it came off the bat of Michael Perez on a solo shot.
The Bucs had 7 hits today, they just can’t string them together to save their lives.
Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier are providing consistency. When the team wins or threatens to win, they get contributions from Jacob Stallings, Gregory Polanco, or even Kevin Newman. It’s nice to have that consistency, but without another 2 guys to stretch this lineup out a bit, that’s the formula and nothing will bring it but time.
Trevor Cahill was placed on the 10-day IL today retroactive and Kyle Crick was activated from his stint.
Something I’ve noticed with Derek Shelton, when he gets a player called up or brought in from another organization he seems to use them very sparingly for a couple days. The notable exception being Will Craig who has played everyday since his call up.
What can you write about a 20-1 loss? I mean, I could chronicle every thunderous swing taken by a Braves player, I could talk about how many of those runs came off Wilmer Difo too. I could probably write about how the players that really matter still hit the baseball but on a day like this, after everything that happened, it’s just not the discussion we need to have.
We Must Discuss the Nick Gonzales Injury
There isn’t anything good about a top prospect being injured. At first it seemed like this wasn’t going to be a huge deal, a collision and initially it appeared it would be nothing more than a contusion and some short time healing up.
Alas…
Pirates give an update on Nick Gonzales: He sustained a fracture to the volar plate (5th digit) on his right hand. Will be immobilized. Projected to return to full baseball activities in 4-6 weeks.
Now, I’m not going to pretend I’m some medical professional, but it’s very likely this will at least make leveling up this year a challenge. It wasn’t a forgone conclusion anyway, but this all but eliminates the likelihood he reaches the Curve with any meaningful time to get his feet wet this season.
Injury is part of the game, as we all saw with Ke’Bryan Hayes this season already. This and other things like it including performance, are why there are never enough prospects. There are never too many short stops, not enough pitching, not enough of anything.
Tyler Anderson
Five innings, Ten Hits, 9 Earned Runs.
Now, that’s one game. A terrible game, but one game nonetheless.
What is important now is to hope Anderson is able to rebound. I think that’s still very doable, but a game like this will shade his overall numbers for the season. Don’t get me wrong, baseball executives by in large are smarter than to judge performance based on one contest but overall things like this are much more the norm for lower level free agents like Anderson.
I’m not predicting doom for Tyler, simply saying since regressing to what he’s always been is more likely than seeing him continue to put up numbers reflective of a top 20 pitcher in MLB, maybe don’t dilly dally on getting him moved. They have Chad Kuhl, Jose Soriano, Steven Brault all on the way back from injury, as well as Wil Crowe and Miguel Yajure who are actively earning their place on this club.
Anderson is a big part of why the Pirates have managed to compete more than most of us anticipated in this young season, but if I’m the Pirates i strike while the iron is hot and get something that will help later.
You can list off all the players you think the Pirates should trade, but Anderson is the only one I can honestly say they HAVE to trade.
Cole Tucker
Ka’ai Tom and Cole Tucker have very little tangible to do with each other. One is an outfielder who has a penchant for long at bats and is more about hunting walks than base hits. The other has a ton of tools and pedigree that have never added up to a major league baseball player.
Tom’s retroactive IL designation created a need and Tucker was the only position player on the 40-man able to be called up.
The team will of course paint this as an opportunity, or his skill set was perfect for the need, but in reality I don’t think it had much to do with anything more than having options, being on the 40-man and not being a pitcher.
That said, the one very true statement from the team is that it’s an opportunity, if there is one area on this club that you could pretty easily prove yourself and stick, it would be with the bat in your hands. Now, Cole hasn’t ever succeeded in this department and I don’t really expect it to happen. He’ll get some time, but his time is limited to how long it takes either Moran or Evans to get right.
AAA is not in a good place, and we all knew that before the season started, but maybe not this bad. in order to provide help at the MLB level, the team is going to have to mow through some of the AAAA players and DFAs who didn’t clear waivers in order to promote some real options from AA like Rodolfo Castro.
The team had an opportunity to do this just the other day. They needed a player, specifically an outfielder and chose to not use Dustin Fowler from the Taxi Squad, instead choosing Cole Tucker. It’s a short term situation, and if the goal is to retain as much as they can I get it, if the goal is to just use up players like Fowler for long term situations, I get that too.
No matter what, the short term plan is nowhere near as clear as the long term.
Pittsburgh totaled 10 hits on Friday night, but only managed to get one run across the plate; not that it mattered at all as the Braves put up a 20 spot on the Pirates, with the final 8 coming off of Wilmer Difo when the game was already out of hand.
During the previous game Atlanta’s was kept in check, to a degree; however with one swing ofthe bat Ronald Acuna Jr. put four on the board in the bottom of the second, virtually ending the game as it was just getting started. At that point there was nothing else Tyler Anderson could do, but wear it; and give up another four runs in the process, including two more homers.
In the end the Pirates fell to the Braves 20 to 1, which only counts as one loss; although it felt like more.
News and Notes
A players trade value usually doesn’t drop after one game, however, it’s hard to imagine a team wanting a pitcher that gave up 9 runs on 10 hits; but he did strikeout 7. And, in all honesty I was wondering if people still wanted to offer Anderson an extension.
Adam Frazier’s current hitting streak is at seven games. During that time his batting average has surged to .339, while maintaining his lead in hit in all of MLB at 59.
Will Craig was 2 for 2 on the night, and had an RBI on a dribbler to the shortstop; which is why you need to do more than just look at the box score.
Cole Tucker went 0 for 2 after being called up from Triple A-Indianapolis earlier in the day. Great personality and unbelievable energy, but the dude just can’t hit.
I am not sure if it gets any more embarrassing than trying to market a podcast for team that you love, and giving a sales pitch, as said team gives up 20 runs on the night you want to show that their is interest in the ball club. Oh, and then you wake up and blog about it.
The Pirates and Braves we back at it the afternoon at 4:10 PM EST, as our Buccos will try to put Friday’s embarrassment behind them.
For Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller (2-5, 7.16 ERA) will toe the rubber, looking to make it two strong starts in a row for the first time this year. Opposing him is Bryse Wilson (1-2, 5.50 ERA), who made his MLB Debut back in 2018 at only 20 years old.
Without the early season injury to Chad Kuhl, Wil Crowe would have most likely have found himself bouncing between Triple A-Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, much like Miguel Yajure, at this point in the year; or as a long reliever option in the bullpen, which is where some believe he belongs, and eventually they could be right. However, after only five starts for the Pirates, and eight total in his Major League Career, I am not ready to make that call just yet. I realize his ceiling may not be as high as some of the more exciting prospects that Pittsburgh has in its Farm System, or even the two Rule 5 pitchers that will soon be on the roster, but sometimes it’s more beneficial to focus on the floor; at least for the moment.
To start the game Crowe struck out Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman, both looking. Then, in the following innings he would find himself in trouble twice; with him giving up a three run homer to William Contreras in the bottom of the second, and striking out Freeman again to get out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the fourth. After a scoreless fifth, he gave up his second homer of the day, this time to Dansby Swanson to lead of the sixth; which in all honesty I put on Derek Shelton. Swanson had Crowe’s number all night with a single and a double in his first two at bats.
Luckily this time the Pirates bats woke up to give their pitchers the support they needed, and then some. Jacob Stalings led of the scoring in the top of the first with a two run homer, Bryan Reynolds added a solo shot in the top of the sixth momentarily and Adam Frazier-who just can’t stop hitting-tied it up again on an RBI single in the top of the seventh.
These at bats, along with some shut down bullpen work led to an extra innings game at Truist Park. At this point Kevin Newman stepped up with an RBI single on his first hit of the night, Gregory Polanco added a run on a sacrifice fly and Richard Rodriguez shut the door for his third win on the season, as the Pirates walked away 6-4 winners in the first of four with the Braves.
News and Notes
Jacob Stallings has hit the ball extremely well over his last seven games. During this time he has batted .292 with three homers, obviously has had some pretty clutch at bats.
In previous News and Notes I have mentioned Bryan Reynolds prowess from the right side of the plate this year; now batting .362 with 2 homers and 8 doubles.
Richard Rodriguez has only given up ONE earned run in 18 appearances this season. He has also yet to allow a single homer, so I probably just jinxed him there.
In spite of some of there struggles, mostly individually, the Pirates bullpen has remained in or near the top 10 in all major categories; and are the number 6 bullpen in all of MLB according to Fangraphs.
After only pitching in one game in 2020 and being non-tendered in the off-season, Clay Homes has put together a fairly solid 2021 thus far. With a career low, 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, his somewhat surprising addition to the roster has worked out in the Pirates favor.
This evening at 7:20 PM EST it will be a Battle of the Andersons, as Tyler Anderson (3-3, 3.50 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh against Ian Anderson (3-1, 3.20 ERA) for Atlanta.
Steel City Pirates 