Is it Time to Ask, Who is Rick Eckstein Helping?

Back in 2019 when Bob Nutting stepped up and finally did something right for this organization after years of sleeping at the wheel by firing his management staff, a couple guys stayed along for the ride.

The players reportedly sung the praises of and openly campaigned for the retention of Rick Eckstein their hitting coach.

Now, that made some sense, in 2019 these players hit, so rocking the boat on something that was working maybe wasn’t priority number one. Still, when they hired Derek Shelton an ex hitting coach himself, I found it at least a little surprising that he didn’t push to be able to put his own stamp on the club.

Now, the easiest thing to think is, well look at this lineup, no hitting coach is going to make that better, right?

Sure, that’s fair. But I’m not expecting him to turn Ka’ai Tom into an All Star, I expect him to help find something in some guys who have real talent and help them find what makes them a threat.

Bryan Reynolds is hitting, but it’s really hard for me to give credit to the hitting coach. This is what Bryan has always done, with one glaring exception last year. A year in which I personally believe he was instructed to try for more homeruns, which destroyed what he is.

Adam Frazier has done well, but he’s been the same hitter since 2018. He’s streaky, and his short compact swing are built to keep him competitive most at bats.

Colin Moran is a guy who has improved drastically right? We keep hearing about his approach this season, but if you really dig into the numbers and spray charts, he’s exactly the hitter he was last year too, he’s just getting more opportunity.

So I ask again, who is Eckstein helping?

Kevin Newman worked with Jon Nunnally (AAA hitting and outfield coach) during Spring Training to hone in his approach, and poof, it’s gone. He’s starting to get closer to it now but we went a month before anyone really forced him to adjust.

Cole Tucker was also sent to work with Nunnally after the season along with Jared Oliva.

The Pirates brought in Christian Marrero as Assistant Hitting Coach this season and he’s largely worked on the video and mechanics side of things.

In fact the only person who’s success has been directly attributed to direct work with Eckstein has been Ke’Bryan Hayes, and hey, if you’re only gonna catch one fish make it a big one right?

Listen, if someone challenges Dale Earnhardt Jr. to a race and then hand him the keys to a 1993 Subaru Justy, of course he isn’t expected to win no matter how good a driver he is. But I suspect he’d be expected to get that crippled wagon across the finish line with at least showing he could drive that thing better than anyone else.

Where is the improvement from any of the number of players they’ve brought in here for a trial? Again, Ka’ai Tom wasn’t going to come here and turn into Jose Canseco, I mean he might only be as big as his bicep, but shouldn’t somebody be doing something better?

What about Gregory Polanco, he had his best season as a Pirate back in 2018 after an adjustment was made to back him off the plate. Here he is in 2021 right back on the plate, having the same struggles he used to have. I noticed when he returned from his self induced IL trip that he was again, backed off the plate, so it’s finally been noticed and addressed. Why did it take so long?

I realize this piece is more about asking questions than it is an explanation but at some point, someone who actually matters is going to start asking the same things.

What I’m seeing right now is a team that overall is much more interested in finding a way to draw a walk than to swing the bat with intent to do damage.

Again, on base percentage is crucial for a club with next to no pop, but the only guys hitting keep finding ways to get on, with nobody capable of driving them in short of drawing a bases loaded walk or praying for a wild pitch.

It’s not about making gold rope out of Twizzlers, it’s about finding a way to get more out of everyone individually.

Something has to change, because if it doesn’t, right or wrong, the hitting coach will.

The Pirates Offense Struggles As They Drop The First Game Of The Series To The Giants

For the first four innings it looked like we were in for another low scoring pitchers duel, which has become more common place that I truly expected thus far in the season. With a starting rotation that lost Joe Musgrove via trade and Steven Brault to injury before the year started, while filling gaps with the likes of Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson and an experienced Wil Crowe due to Chad Kuhl scuffling before ending up on the IL himself, I saw the offense as needing to over perform in most instances to keep the Pirates in games. Sure, there have been a few complete blowouts that no amount of support from the bats could cure, but these have been few and far between; especially when they have played any team not named Cincinnati.

As Crowe came out for the fifth you could tell the Giants had either figured him out a little bit the first two times through the order, or his pitches weren’t finding their marks as he surrendered three runs on a homer, two singles and a triple, with a Jacob Stallings’ throwing error mixed it; still a deficit like this shouldn’t be insurmountable, but it sure felt that way and ultimately was as the Pirates fell to the Giants 3-1.

News and Notes:

  • The Pirates lone run came on a 8th inning blast off the bat of Will Craig. It was his first Major League hit, homer and RBI all wrapped into one; and his fourth homer in three games if you count his time in Indianapolis.

  • Wil Crowe didn’t get the win, but it wasn’t like he didn’t give his team a chance to. In five innings he gave up the aforementioned three runs on six hits, while walking just one and striking out five. As a starter Crowe has posted a 4.05 ERA, a 1.250 WHIP and 15 strikeouts over 20 innings. Obviously this is not ace level stuff, which is what it seems like many fans have come to expect from every pitcher, but it’s definitely enough to keep your team in games.
  • The Pirates accumulated only five hits on the night, one of which was from their designated pinch hitter Wilmer Difo, who is hitting .389 in those situations on the year with a homer.
  • The bullpen held up, and that is exactly what they have been doing on most occasions this season. Overall Pittsburgh’s relievers are ranking 8th in MLB. Once again most times they won’t lose the game for you, but they can’t to much more than they have to give the Pirates a chance to win.
  • On the season the Pirates hitters have a combined 83 wRC+, which is only better than Detroit and Colorado. As a team they are batting .203 with Runners In Scoring Position. Game by game this can be seen as an overrated stat, but when it becomes a pattern, it’s hard to say that any stat is overrated.

The Pirates and Giants will back at it today at today at 6:35 PM EST from PNC Park, with Miguel Yajure (0-1, 8.31 ERA) expected to take the mound against Kevin Gausman (3-0, 1.97 ERA) for San Francisco.

Through The Prospect Porthole: September Call-Ups

Yes, I realize that we are less than two weeks into May, but I have already heard mentions of players that we could possibly see in a Pirates uniform at PNC Park by the end of the year; most of the time as a player added to the roster when this season is presumptively over at the beginning of September, which we all know is almost a forgone conclusion for the Pirates way before then.

For years this has been the practice, at the end of the Minor League season, for Major League clubs to call up their next line of prospects as reserve players to give them a taste of what could await them; but also to get a glimpse of how they could perform under pressure, to test whether or not they could be added to the playoff roster or to give the regulars a breather at the end of a long season.

Usually this happens as a fluid motion, with every player on the 40-man being available, at the team’s disposal, to pick and choose from. However, as of 2020 this rule has changed, and it had nothing to do with the COVID protocols. This alteration of the rosters took place after the 2019 season in order to allow 26 active rosters, as well as a mandated 28-man roster after August 31st.

With the constraints of a fixed number of players permitted to join Pittsburgh in September, it is clear that not every prospect fans, and some media members, are predicting to join the team will actually happen; so to say that this or that player could be a September call up is actually counterproductive at this point.

Obviously injuries, trades, acquisitions, designations for assignment and other roster moves will occur between now and then; nevertheless, there is a select group of players-most likely pitchers-that could find there way onto the Pirates roster, and fill those last two spots.

In his first two AA starts in Altoona, Roansy Contreras has pitched 11 innings, while striking out 22 and walking only 2. During his most recent start on Tuesday he didn’t allow a single hit in 6 innings. Already on the 40-man it has been made known by many that he should ascend to AAA-Indy immediately and be in the Pirates rotation by the beginning of June. Sure, this young man is dominating at this point and time, and could potentially move his way up a level tomorrow, however, there is now way to predict that this success will duplicate itself for the Indians.

In the same breath I have heard that Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cal Mitchell and even Liover Pegeuro or Max Kranick will make their debuts by the end of this season. Honestly, if you want to, insert almost every Minor Leaguer between AAA and AA in this conversation and it would mean about the same for 2021.

Now, we all know that some of these are more of possibility because they are on the 40-man, but I feel like most fans have forgot about the likes of Kyle Keller, Nick Mears, Cody Ponce and the soon to be activated Jose Soriano; who is a Rule 5 acquisition, and one of three players that must remain active to avoiding losing them.

Obviously, none of this is meant to prevent Pirates Fans from watching, reporting on and/or getting excited about Minor League Baseball, it is just a reminder that most of the players you are watching, and more than likely focused on, are two to four years away of making any realistic impact. It’s not being pessimistic, it’s the truth. Even so, we would undoubtedly like to see increased progress at times, but after over 600 days without competitive baseball for some, it is hard to imagine that many will hit the ground running and/or experience continued success with no setbacks. Yet, I feel like this what many expect.

So, keep on making your predictions of who will play at PNC in 2021, and I will keep on watching the games these prospects will most likely be playing in for the rest of the year; in Indianapolis, Altoona, Greensboro and Bradenton.

Pirates (15-21) Fall to Reds in 10, to Drop Series

We were getting to the point in the Reds-Pirates series that rooting for simply not getting blown out seemed like a more achievable goal than a win. A pitchers dual wasn’t on my menu though, and the final score sure didn’t make it look like one occurred.

This was a good old fashioned National League baseball game. Tons of moves, pinch hitting, pitching changes and small ball decisions. That obviously fits in nicely with how the Pirates want to play baseball, problem is, they continued to let opportunities to score slip through their fingers.

Mike Moustakas hit a solo homerun off Trevor Cahill in the second.

And Gregory Polanco drew the club even after personally squandering two opportunities earlier.

That’s where the game stood. The Reds squandered chances, both teams plowed through their bullpen to keep it tied at 1 through 9.

The Pirates have only had one extra inning contest this season so it’s probably good to remind you that the league has adopted the ghost runner rule for extras this year.

The Pirates turned to Duane Underwood Jr. with Nick Senzel at second, Winker would deliver immediately. 2-1 Reds. He would load the bases and surrender a bases clearing double to Suarez to make it 5-1 Reds in the top of the 10th.

Final score, 5-1. Wil Crowe vs Anthony DeSclafani and the San Francisco Giants at 6:35.

News & Notes

  • The Pirates entered today’s game ranked 28th in MLB with a 3.97 Runners left in scoring position figure. For a team that ranks 19th in On base percentage this is devastating. For instance, the LA Dodgers rank 30th in runners left in scoring position but they’re also first in On Base so they survive it easier. Small ball and not capitalizing on these situations don’t go well together.
  • Harkening back to my piece this morning about the outfield. Ka’ai Tom went 0 for 2 with a walk and Ben Gamel went 1 for 3 with a walk while Gregory Polanco went 1 for 4.
  • Kevin Newman is starting to find it a bit. 2 for 5 today off a good game last night.
  • Phillip Evans exited the game in the 5th after moving to second on a Gregory Polanco RBI single. He looked like he tried to pull up to ensure it would drop and tweaked something, the team announced it was left hamstring discomfort. Probably not an IL trip I’d guess. Adam Frazier entered the game and Gonzalez slid over to first base. If this lingers, rather than looking for a move I’d assume we’ll see Difo, Gonzalez or Gamel take over as we wait for Evans or Moran to return.
  • Good news on Colin Moran today, the team expects his return to be very close to his 10 day minimum stay. It was good news before Evans was removed, now it’s great news.
  • Sonny Gray got worked today, the team patiently made him get deep into counts on almost every at bat. He would exit in the 5th to get to the considerably weaker Reds bullpen.
  • Trevor Cahill went 5.1 innings of 3 hit 1 run ball today. He is either really good or really below the line. Today was a good day.
  • Chasen Shreve made his 2021 debut and stranded inherited runners at 1st and 3rd in the 7th to keep the game tied.
  • To get the last out in the 8th, David Bednar hit 100 on the gun. He’s always got that in his back pocket, and man he embarrassed Suarez in that at bat as he also dropped a 79 MPH curve on him. That’s a wide spread to cover, and his arm looks exactly the same for each from the batters box.
  • Adam Frazier was a late replacement in this one and got two at bats, and was not able to extend his hitting streak.

Pirates Outfield Takes a Turn

Last week, The Pirates had one available outfielder, Ka’ai Tom. I called it Outfield-A-Rama, and it looked like they had no idea how they’d ram together an outfield for the foreseeable future.

Well, Ben Cherington must have felt the same, because he took action.

He activated Troy Stokes Jr from the Taxi Squad, went out and got Ben Gamel who was DFA’d by the Indians, then Gregory Polanco and Brian Reynolds were both back, Polanco from a COVID related IL stint and Reynolds from the bench after experiencing lower body discomfort.

Hunter Owen was DFA’d so there goes one but the Pirates are now sitting on five outfielders.

That can’t last.

Right now they have 5 outfielders, none of them with flexibility unless you count Ben Gamel and all of his 4 innings of experience at First Base.

Wilmer Difo can back up almost anywhere, but man it’s not comfortable.

The truth is someone will have to go. Troy Stokes, Ka’ai Tom, and Ben Gamel would all have to be DFA’d to be moved off the roster. Of those three, Gamel has by far the most experience as an MLB player but even if he’s great, he won’t be a Pirate beyond this season.

Ka’ai Tom and Troy Stokes are both out of options, but each also come with roughly 5 years of team control. Meaning, if either can perform and stick the Pirates could have them for a while.

Troy Stokes immediately made an impact in the field, making fearless plays near the wall in Wrigley and in general looking like a professional fielder out there, then last night he brought the wood, although he had been making great contact from game one.

Ka’ai got off to a rough start. Making aggressive mistakes on the base paths and the field, but he’s been an OBA machine, maybe to a fault. Hunting walks but seemingly swinging with no purpose. He hit a homerun in Chicago and even that didn’t appear to be a full swing. Aside from that he walks a ton and pitches in the occasional single.

We haven’t seen Gamel play much yet aside from a two inning stint at first base and some pinch hits, but he’s an excellent defender and an established MLB player.

Should I waste space telling you that Bryan Reynolds is going to keep playing?

Then we have Polanco. He’s back, and I’d imagine he’ll play, but let’s be honest, he’s in the same territory as Gamel. He won’t be here beyond this season.

So, here’s the challenge. The Pirates need to balance evaluation with the idea that one of them sticks.

If you don’t like what Stokes has shown, I’m not sure you like baseball. Now I’m not saying that makes him an All Star or someone who will anchor a spot for 5 years but he’s at least shown that he has some interesting tools. In his minor league career he stole bases at an almost 80% success rate, and with his speed and patience at the plate, he’s going to get opportunities to use that speed.

Tom has obviously had to take time to recover from his start, but he’s easily bested Alford and Fowler in their time here.

This will have to play out relatively quickly, they won’t be able to go long with only one backup infielder, Wilmer Difo.

I’d imagine it sticks until Colin Moran is healthy.

That’s obviously not going to be fair to everyone, but it’s not going to stop the very real decision that will need made.

Who would you keep? More importantly, who would you DFA?

Right now, my brain says Tom but maybe the Pirates will decide they’ve had enough of Polanco and shock us all. Hey, if Albert Pujols can get released…

Brubaker Provides Another Strong Performance As The Pirates Win

Prior to the start of the Pirates series with the Reds, I already had Tuesday’s contest circled as the most likely chance to add one to the win column for Pittsburgh; almost completely due to the man they would have on the bump, JT Brubaker. During his first six starts on the season he had only allowed as many as three runs on one occasion, with two quality starts to his credit; and you may have noticed two losses on his record, but he always put the Pirates in a position to win. In this most recent matchup with Cincinnati, it would be much of the same from Brubaker, only this time the offense would be there to support him.

On the night only two batters, Erik Gonzalez and Jacob Stallings, went hitless; obviously not counting the pitchers and pinch hitters. It was refreshing to see the Pirates string hits together, utilizing their speed on the base paths and getting a cherry on the top homer from Adam Frazier; his first on the season. On the night after it seemed like nothing could go right for Pittsburgh, it appeared like not a whole lot could go wrong in the Pirates 7-2 victory over the Reds.

Of course not everything went perfect as David Bednar did not make it through a full inning of work; allowing a run on two hits, while striking out one. Also, I honestly would have liked to see Derek Shelton allow Brubaker to come out for the seventh after totally only 81 pitches, with him in clear command of his stuff; especially the location of his four seamer. However, there was not much else to question, which clearly hasn’t been the case after the previous four games versus Cincinnati.

News and Notes:

  • Congratulations are due to Troy Stokes Jr. on his first two MLB hits and RBIs. Not to mention that that he also plays a pretty strong right field. Unfortunately, it has to be noted that at some point Stokes Jr. may become a victim of the 40-man and 26-man roster crunches.

  • Kevin Newman has looked better with his approach at the plate as of late, as evidenced by his well struck triple in the bottom of the fourth. Continue to keep those hands low Kevin.
  • Phillip Evans had two really nice at bats, one for an RBI double, and two not so great ones. With every passing game, it is becoming more and more clear to me that Evans is strong utility option, but not an everyday starter.
  • At one point Bryan Reynolds has reached base in seven straight plate appearances since his lower body soreness day off. The guy is just a really solid ball player.
  • Richard Rodriguez was able to come in to finish off the Reds in not a real high pressure situation, after getting knocked around a little in his last appearance. He did allow a hit, but other than that it was a pretty clean outing.

The Pirates and Reds have a quick turnaround at PNC Park as the first pitch is scheduled for 12:35 PM Wednesday. Trevor Cahill (1-4, 6.75 ERA) is set to face off against Sonny Gray (0-2, 3.92 ERA) for the Reds in this early season rubber match between division rivals.

The Top 10 Ways to Enjoy a Rebuild – Justin Verno

The 2021 Major League Season is off and running, and the Pirates sit a few under .500 just 29 games in.  While some guys such as Adam Frazier, Colin Moran, and a few others are off to a good start, most are playing to expectations. As predicted there will be a lot of losing at 1500 Federal Street this year. 

And for once, I think that’s okay. 

10: Enjoy the Park

This might be the easiest advice I can give. Yeah, getting tickets is a pain right now, but PNC Park is always worth the trip. It is the most beautiful park in Major League Baseball. 

9: Social Media

Find like minded fans to root with. If you’re at all like me, your family and a good many of your friends have already given up on the Bucs. I took to social media, Twitter in this case, to find avid Pirate fans. Don’t get me wrong, I still watch the games with my family and friends, but once they’re done telling me I threw my money away I hit up my Twitter peeps. It’s a great way to connect with fans. I’m not saying there’s no negativity, there’s plenty of that to go around, but there’s a good balance here and plenty of fans to talk Buccos with. 

8: Find the Story Lines

The Buccos’ roster is chalk full of them this year.

Pick any OF. Does Gregory Polanco finally start to hit?  Does Tom show his potential? Do Alford or Fowler find their way back to the bigs? Will Louis Oviedo pitch well enough to stay on the 25 man roster or do the Pirates offer him back to the Indians?

7: Management Showing the Way 

Okay, so Ben Cherington hasn’t flat out said they will tear it down to build it up, but he did say we’re in a rebuild and that he has a group of players to trade to help do it. Having expectations set from the top is refreshing. Enjoy it.

6: MLB Debuts

The Bucs have already had a few this season. For some it was the team debut. For others, like David Bednar or Rodolfo Castro, it was their first taste of the Show and that is always a special thing to watch!

5: Competition

The Bucs are losing, sure, but they are playing a competitive style. These guys are easy to root for, as there’s not a lot of quit in this team.

4: Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes

Every rebuild needs cornerstone players and these two could be ours.  While Mitch is off to a slow start and Hayes has been on the IL, their growth holds the key to how quickly the Bucs will be back in contention. Watching them grow should be a blast, as both have a lot of upside.

3: The Rebound

A few players such as Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier, and Gregory Polanco had down years in 2020. Watching them rebound is important. Frazier and Reynolds are off to a good start, while Polanco is not so much. These players rebounding matters in different ways. Frazier and Polanco both represent good trade deadline pieces, while Reynolds could be part of the team moving forward. Although, I wouldn’t count out moving him. This should be fun to watch.

2: #Hugwatch

Hugwatch is the term used when a player who was just traded gives hugs to the other players on his way out the door. This by far is the best part of any rebuild and there are no shortages on why. From keeping an eye on the players that could be traded, to predicting the trade, to arguing if they got enough back… #Hugwatch is the ultimate rocking chair GM activity, and all of us are rocking chair GMs! 

1: Watching the Trade Pieces Develop

While insiders and fans alike will debate for weeks and months after the trade about who the winner or loser was, it will take time, perhaps years, to know for sure. Keeping an eye on their development through the Pirates minor leagues system is fine; the trouble here is it isn’t easy. But, there are a lot of tools out there to help, from YouTube videos, to Fangraphs, to Baseball America, or Twitter accounts that specialize in showcasing these young players. One Twitter handle that’s excellent at this is @TalkPirates. 

 Look, I get it. Being a Pirate fan since 1992 hasn’t been the easiest thing. There have been a LOT of rebuilds here, one after another, but if the early returns from Ben Cherington are any indication, I think he will have the Pirates back on the high seas and the Pirate fans will be Raising the Jolly Roger soon enough! Let’s have a little fun here and give Mr. Cherington a chance!

Pirates (14-20) Lose Big to Reds 14-1

There are nights when nothing goes right. For the Pirates so far this season that’s been the case in every matchup with the Reds. Pitching, hitting, hey name an aspect, it probably failed in some way.

Complaining about the lineup on a night by night basis is a like opening the national debt counting website every morning and having fresh rage and consternation. There’s not much to be done that is really going to impact the issues short of health, and if we’re honest, it wasn’t going to be enough most nights even then.

Adam Frazier is a fine second baseman and he’s hitting more than enough to be effective. Bryan Reynolds is strong, but he’s not designed to be a guy that carries the weight of a lineup on his shoulders, few are.

They need more from most of the lineup and when you don’t have a ton of talent, it’s hard to solely blame the hitting coach, but at some point it becomes fair to ask, who’s he helping?

Don’t think that’s fair? OK, maybe it’s the talent evaluators.

Maybe it’s just the stage they’re in and it’s exactly what we should expect. Yeah, I mean I know this one is right, but point stands, isn’t part of this to be about improving guys who are here already?

Hey, you can think it’s too early to ask questions like that, and maybe it is, but at some point helping Ke’Bryan Hayes discover something in his swing last season doesn’t help enough players. These are things that will continue to be evaluated as the season progresses, but make no mistake, he’s expected to find something in someone.

Feels weird to have gotten this far without mentioning Mitch Keller, but man, it looked like two different games.

For the first three innings Mitch was on point, hitting his spots, challenging hitters. Sure he surrendered a solo shot to Suarez in the second but he jumped right back to attack mode.

Then in the fourth he surrendered a soft serve single and a walk.

Click click boom, it was over right there. He lost it.

Stopped placing the fastball and started having it find the middle of the plate instead of the outer or inner third.

The Reds didn’t miss.

The list of pitchers who had all the talent in the world and couldn’t ever put it all together is longer than those who have. The Pirates have had plenty. Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Jason Schmidt, Kip Wells, you know I could go on. Reach this kid here, or reach him in AAA, but this development staff needs to show they can help him.

Underwood Jr. came in and largely cleaned up the mess then Oviedo got pelted around a bit. Geoff Hartlieb also gave up several runs.

All around poor performance.

Back at it tomorrow with JT Brubaker versus Jeff Hoffman. This is a good pitching matchup for the Pirates, but the bats have to make it matter.

News & Notes

  • What do you do with Mitch Keller? If he was pitching like Wil Crowe you’d never even consider sending him down when Chad Kuhl comes back, but maybe that’s the play here. The only reason I’d choose Crowe would be his options, but maybe this is something they’ll consider. You have to admit, you probably think even Cahill is better most times out. Show them that if you earn it you get it, and if you don’t, well, you don’t.
  • Jacob Stallings hit a homerun in the second to tie the game and erase the solo shot Keller gave up in the second.
  • Adam Frazier was 2 for 3 with a walk, Bryan Reynolds was 2 for 2 with 2 walks, and Jacob Stallings hit that bomb. Ladies and Gentlemen, your Pittsburgh Pirates offense, not just tonight, most nights. Hitting is contagious, I’m sure you’ve heard that old saying, well so is not hitting. The few who have continued to provide just about all the offense are to be commended.
  • Tonight’s “Most in tact trailer after the Tornado” award goes to Phillip Evans who made some really nice plays at first base tonight.
  • Ben Gamel got in the game tonight to play 1st base. I wasn’t aware this was in his toolkit, but he looked ok over there. Hey, that might come in handy. Shelton said they were just trying to get Adam Frazier a break in a blowout with the move.
  • Gregory Polanco will reportedly be back with the team in the coming days according to Ben Cherington. Not sure we know this whole story yet, but whatever happened they could use his bat, and yes I’m aware of his average. If he hits one homerun a week it might just pace the club.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 5-10-21

The Pirates have dealt with some injury to an already thin lineup and as is becoming tradition with Ben Cherington, when you expect a move, he might just give you three or four.

This lineup that looks more like a collection of cast offs and crap shoots has now lost Ke’Bryan Hayes, Colin Moran, Gregory Polanco, and Bryan Reynolds for stretches of time, and even with all of them it wasn’t going to be the ’27 Yankees.

1. Who’s New, and What Does All this Mean?

Ben Gamel is an outfielder that you probably remember hitting homeruns off Pirates pitching up in the ballpark formerly known as Miller Park the last couple seasons. He’s not a star, but he is a real outfielder. He was DFAd by the Indians and the Pirates jumped all over him to patch a gaping wound. This isn’t quite the same as Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler or Ka’ai Tom as Gamel has made an MLB squad and stuck, but he also isn’t a difference maker most nights.

He was someone I wanted the Pirates to target in the offseason but just for transparency’s sake, when they signed Brian Goodwin I was placated and that certainly didn’t work out.

Another pickup from outside the roster meant that the Pirates needed to make a corresponding move to make room on the 40-man, this brought on the DFA of Michael Feliz, who just returned from the IL himself and in his first outing provided 2 scoreless innings. I don’t expect him to clear waivers as I just don’t see 29 teams passing on a free arm that has posted a 2.35 ERA in 7 games with a 1.17 WHIP in 2021.

Now, why Feliz instead of Poppen or Bashlor? Well, they needed the spot on the 26-man too, so either way someone was going to need waived.

Troy Stokes Jr. was also added to the roster to replace Colin Moran. To make room on the 40-man, Ke’Bryan Hayes was moved to the 60-day IL. The team claims this isn’t a change in his timeline for return as it’s a retroactive designation.

Geoff Hartlieb was called up yesterday and in a surprise twist the Pirates DFA’d Todd Frazier.

At least Bryan Reynolds is back tonight.

Whew.

So the outfield right now looks like this. Reynolds, Ka’ai Tom, Troy Stokes Jr., Ben Gamel, Hunter Owen (who is here and not on the 40-man because Polanco’s IL designation is COVID related) and Wilmer Difo. I suppose you could still count Evans too although I’d imagine he get’s most of his time at first.

Obviously as players start to make their way back, there will be more moves. Largely the Pirates have locked themselves in on much of the roster as most of these players have no options, and those who do you’d never want to use them.

2. Pitching is Holding Up

The Pirates were pretty up front about their belief that they’d need two rosters worth of pitching this season, but so far the performance of the staff has made that look unlikely. Now, that belief was at least partially built on the uncertainty of how pitchers across the league would perform coming off a shortened season.

It’s May 10th, obviously they could still be right in their concern, but so far so good largely.

Tyler Anderson, and JT Brubaker have easily exceeded expectations. Mitch Keller has taken positive steps in 2 of his last 3 outings. Trevor Cahill has been exactly as expected, some good, some bad. Chad Kuhl wasn’t good and is now on the IL replaced by Wil Crowe who has improved week after week.

So, as with the roster stuff we just spoke to in point 1, the Bucs will have some rather difficult choices coming. When Kuhl returns, they’ll likely send Crowe back down, regardless of the fact he’s earned a better fate. Steven Brault is starting a throwing program in the coming weeks and without further injury, he too has no obvious spot and none of this takes into account that Miguel Yajure and Chase De Jong are arguably better options than either.

If starters drop like flies later in the season as we’ve seen time and again with this club, they’ll be well positioned to survive it, and that’s not something to complain about, but much like the locked in syndrome I spoke to earlier, options aren’t a thing in this rotation, at least not any you’d want to use.

Point is, when they do start making trades, it really and truly won’t have to make this rotation take a huge hit. One way or another, the franchise is 8 or 9 deep in the starter department and I didn’t even mention Cody Ponce.

3. Ahead of the Pace

The Pirates have played 33 baseball games in 2021 and it’s led to a 14-19 record. They must go 6-21 over the next 27 games to best their 60 game record in 2020.

It’s not a sure bet by any stretch, but they’re easily outpacing what they did last season. This is also a club that just lost 8 of 10 so again, it’s not a sure bet.

Yup, they’ll trade a few more players.

Tyler Anderson, Trevor Cahill, maybe Adam Frazier, Rich Rod, Chris Stratton, to name a few, but when your club is built like this none of these are going to seismically alter the foundation.

4. The Best Laid Plans

Greensboro has been so much fun already this season, headlined by the double play tandem of Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero. Both are hitting .389, both have shown power, both are playing great defense.

They’re supposed to both come up together and then ultimately play together in Pittsburgh and that could very well happen, but after Peguero was removed from yesterday’s contest it really brought home for me just how hard it is to have two careers line up that well.

I’m not guessing about how much time if any Liover will miss, that’s not really the point as much as reminding everyone that keeping an open mind about the individuality of each player’s journey.

It’s also a good idea to keep in mind Ji-hwan Bae and Rodolfo Castro will probably come first.

I say this because while some of you think you’ve seen enough to promote both of those young men from the Grasshoppers, there are still very real talents they’ll have to get past. I have no doubt they’re capable, but the team isn’t just going to cast everyone else aside to make it happen.

Is Nick Gonzales capable of rocketing through the system to make the club by the end of 2022? Sure he is, but it’s not a likely scenario.

For all we know, Bae could end up being the everyday center fielder, and Castro could patrol right field. The bats will decide who makes it and who they find a spot for. All in due time.

5. Battle for the Basement

The Pirates and Reds begin a three game set tonight at PNC Park and for the Pirates to climb out of the basement they need a sweep. To have the Reds leave town at least tied for last place they need 2 of 3.

I’d love to give you a prediction, but when you see a lineup like they trotted out yesterday put up 6 runs, it’s kinda hard to do so but the Reds certainly aren’t doing much with their considerably deeper lineup. Just about every week when I’m on the Locked on Pirates Podcast with Ethan, he talks about the upcoming week and asks me what I see happening.

It’s at least for me, difficult to answer. I can’t sit here and tell you I’ve gone into any one contest feeling the Pirates SHOULD win. Sure, there are pitching matchups I like more than others, but It all goes back to my prediction piece prior to the season starting.

I think the Bucs will hang in more games than they’ll be blown out. Last season this club lost more 1-run games than any other club but it sure didn’t feel like that when the other losses that sandwiched them were 8-0 beat downs.

I can’t say they should be favored in any contest, but the pitching will keep them in most of them, and that in and of itself makes just about any outcome possible.

Batting First And Leading Off For Your Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting a few days ago I noticed rumblings throughout Pirates Social Media about making a change at the leadoff spot in Pittsburgh’s lineup; and to be totally honest I was so preoccupied with Ke’Bryan Hayes’ absence in the number two spot, as well as having Erik Gonzalez bat cleanup, that I hadn’t really given it much thought.

For as long as Adam Frazier has put on a Pirates uniform there have been detractors concerning his abilities, both in the field and at the plate. Over the past two years, after being a Gold Glove Finalist, some of these apprehension have been put to rest; even though if you look at the numbers, he is having his worst defensive year by far in recent memory. In 2019 Frazier was 14 OAA (Outs Above Average) according to Statcast, and then in 2020 he was at 7 OAA; but now he is at -2 OAA, and many are focused on his spot in the batting order. Although, if you look deeper into the numbers he has been performing better overall in the number one spot this year; just not when it comes to leading off the game.

Throughout the annals of Major League Baseball, the lead off spot has been held in high regards. Maybe not as much as the clean up hitter, who gets the glory of bringing in all those who come before him with monstrous blasts, but at times they have become near equals; with the likes of Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ichiro Suzuki and Craig Biggio, or Lou Brock and Pete Rose for some of the more seasoned baseball fans. These players set the tone for their teams, as they got on base at record rates, got themselves into scoring positions by swiping bags, or hit homers to give their ball club the early advantage.

One of these legends Adam Frazier obviously is not, and it is truthfully a completely unfair comparison or expectation. Still, for the most part he has been the best option the Pirates have had for at least the last couple of years; outside the stellar rookie performance of Kevin Newman. That year Newman hit .382 in the leadoff spot overall and slashed .296/.324/.507 with three homers and a 119 sOPS+ relative to every other lead off hitter in the league to start the game, while Frazier posted a 101 sOPS+; mostly due to his 5 home runs in only two more at bats.

Now of course it goes without saying that the 2020 was an odd year, where most of the Pirates experienced downturns in their production; nevertheless Frazier still found success to the tune of a 130 sOPS+. Of course he only had a 68 sOPS+ altogether, so obviously everything wasn’t great. However, Newman completely fell off a cliff with a -100 OPS+.

Flash forward to the present, where Frazier is batting .300, but is surprisingly at the league average for sOPS+ of 100 when batting first, and an abysmal 1 sOPS+ as the first batter of the game for the Pirates, which could be the reason for fans questioning whether or not he should stay in that spot. Yet, with all of the injuries that the Pirates are dealing with, the lack of production from players like Newman and the inexperience from other options, I am not sure there is an immediate answer to these concerns.

The name I have seen most often to take over the leadoff spot is recently acquired Ka’ai Tom, who has shown patience at the plate thus far in his Pirates career. In 22 at bats-extremely small sample size-Tom has a 36.4% walk rate, a .424 OBP and a 113 OPS+.

It is hard to believe that these numbers are sustainable, but it might not be out of the question to catch lightning in a bottle to provide some energy by mixing things up. That is unless Derek Shelton is looking for stability in the lineup, with only Frazier, Newman and Stallings left from Opening Day; hopefully to be rejoined by Bryan Reynolds, as well as Ke’Bryan Hayes and Colin Moran from the IL very shortly.

No matter what Shelton decides to do, it is undeniable that this roster, as it is currently constructed, is not built to maintain the success they experienced against the Cubs on Sunday afternoon; and that they need the aforementioned guys to return in order to competitive day in and day out, but more importantly, to continue to build toward the future.