Pirates (12-12) Fall to Royals Behind a Brutal Keller Outing

Today didn’t go as I planned entirely. I knew my wife was going to a work function tonight at PNC Park, but my plan was to just watch the game and write the story.

My entire focus was on game prep for things to watch, players to key in on, performances that could make a difference and then I got a call to come with her which turned into a boat ride into the stadium and up the Monongahela.

I knew it was a Mitch Keller game tonight, and as happens often to me lately, everyone knew, “Gary’s the Pirates Guy”. So when you’re that guy, you’re going to get asked what’s gonna happen of course, which is hard to explain to people you’re pretty sure have no clue who’s on the team.

That said, I went on to say Mitch Keller is pitching tonight, you’ll know by the first inning if we have a shot or not in this one.

As if he was listening, the ever mentally fragile Mitch Keller stepped to the mound and quite possibly had his least impressive outing of the young season.

2.1 innings, 3 hits, 5 walks, and 4 earned runs. As bad as that line looks, he looked worse. He threw 47 pitches in the first inning, and this was after retiring the first batter on a routine ground ball to second.

Calls from back in the box started coming my way. “Gary, you were right about Keller”

Now, I know I didn’t predict he’d stink tonight, but what do you say when people important to your wife think you know your stuff? Thing is, anytime he toes the rubber an outcome like this is just as likely as watching him struggle through five.

He simply doesn’t trust his stuff.

You can say he was wild. You can say the Royals were fouling off a ton of balls. You can say whatever you want, but you won’t find out everything from reading the stats.

After 47 pitching to wiggle and shake his way through the first, I saw from my seat, Derek Shelton, Oscar Marin and Jacob Stallings all standing near Keller in the bullpen. Nothing animated. Nobody throwing Gatorade coolers at him. Looked like a good talking to.

He came back out for the second and put up a relatively easy zero.

So I thought to myself, well, a ton of stuff.

First, I thought hey those guys got through to him. Then I thought, why the hell didn’t he listen in the first? Then, why the hell do they have to get through to him inning by inning?

This was his fifth start of the season, and even the one last week that many of us looked to as progress was filled with painfully slow and deliberate dragging of the feet in between each pitch. Overthinking, over pitching, and it’s hard to not be over him if I’m honest.

I don’t think it’s the best course of action to send him down, but I also can’t sit here and tell you it should be off the table entirely. On one hand, there isn’t anything left to learn in the minors on the other you can’t allow one kid who can’t get out of his own way to hurt the bullpen so much that it damages what this young team is trying to do.

No, the record still doesn’t matter this year, but part of development is making sure when 25 guys are rowing in the right direction you don’t let one turd in the punchbowl spoil everything

I think my first official tweet from the game summed up what I see.

I still believe his stuff plays, but he doesn’t. Mitch is a perfect storm of lack of conviction and control. I honestly don’t think the Pirates will send him down, I’m not hearing rhetoric that would lead me to believe that’s on the horizon in the near term. Honestly I’m not at a point where I’m going to rail for it, but I’m close.

Be careful what you wish for though, especially if you’re someone who thinks the Pirates screwed up Glasnow, because never forcing him to face his demons is what soured that kid for ever finding it in the Burgh.

But enough about Mitch, after all he was only 2.1 innings of this game.

Mike Minor wasn’t all that much better. He only lasted 4.1 innings and surrendered 4 earned.

The Bucs tried to come all the way back in this one and at one point made it 6-5 but Chris Stratton who has been up and down himself this year gave the runs right back.

Bucs fall to the Royals 9-6 at PNC tonight. Off tomorrow, JT Brubaker vs John Gant and the Cardinals on Friday for a 3 game set.

News & Notes

  • Special thanks to my hosts tonight for the invite.
  • Todd Frazier got his first hit tonight and it was a big one a two run double. He took great at bats all night though drawing two walks and seeing 14 pitches in his first two at bats alone.
  • Eric Gonzalez and Jacob Stallings went back to back. Gonzalez hit a fastball 452 feet to left center and Jake crushed a ball 402 to left center that Turner nearly caught before crashing into the wall and dislodging the ball.
  • Phillip Evans looked good tonight racking up two walks and a base hit trying to find his way out of a slump.
  • Eric Gonzalez had another excellent defensive play, scrambling and sliding to his left to pick a ball and start a slick double play.
  • Ka’ai Tom (I guess he likes being called Blaze) made his Pirates debut still wearing Oakland green stirrups and walked. So he’s already better than Alford. Relax it’s a joke. Ok maybe not.

What Makes Richard Rodriguez So Good?

This headline could have been so many things. Why can’t anyone hit his fastball? Why can’t players square up anything RichRod throws? I’ve scarcely been so confused watching a player succeed.

Sure, it’s going well and we should let sleeping dogs lie right?

He has a 0.00 ERA in 2021, and he’s given up 1 single. A batting average of .031.

We’re talking heart of the lineup, bottom of the lineup, pinch hitters, designated hitters.

I’d love to sit here and tell you he’s painting corners and keeping hitters off balance, but take a look at his results.

If it’s in or around that zone, he’s thrown it. And largely, nobody has hit it.

In fact the only thing I can see with Richard is that he’s a flyball pitcher and he’s given up a few that might be homeruns if he were in a different ballpark.

Looking back to 2019 because you have to go back there to find a time when he struggled all you’ll find is that people were hitting his slider down in the zone and some fat fastballs right down the middle. I’d love to tell you that’s what he’s changed, and he’s missing the middle of the zone, but you saw that chart up there, he isn’t shying away from throwing the ball down the middle.

The Spin rate on his fastball is near the top of the league, and his average velocity has ticked up from 92.9 to 93.2, basically a statistical anomaly.

The one thing that has really moved for Richard is actually a combination of things. His average launch angle given up is now 29.7 up from 16.6, couple that with the change in his hard hit rate which sits at 31.8, down 19.2 from 2020’s figure of 51. This means more harmless fly balls and pop ups.

Shockingly his Whiff Rate is actually down this year to 28.6 from 36 which is totally counter to his performance. And the last number I’ll get into is his first pitch strike percentage which is up to 72.7 from 63.4.

So why is Richard Rodriguez so good?

Well, all of those numbers indicate that he’s found a way to turn at least in the early going, what used to be homeruns or at the very least damage into harmless contact.

He also has always done a good job of being tough to pick up, which doesn’t physically add velocity but virtually makes the ball get on the hitter faster. Coupled with elite spin rate and you have one hell of a tough guy to barrel up.

How tough? He hasn’t had one ball barreled this season against him.

He isn’t a prototypical closer. I’m not sure another team would use him in that spot, I’m not sure he’ll get closer value on the market. I’m not sure how batter after batter can stand there knowing exactly what he’s going to throw them and still continue to miss it.

In fact I’m only sure of one thing with Richard Rodriguez, this is one of the best waiver claims this team has ever made, and man is it fun to watch a pitcher so comfortable with himself that he just does it like a robot with zero fear.

Another team might not use him as a closer, but he and his non-existent ERA make him an excellent choice to be the Pirates closer.

Anderson And The Pirates Give Kansas City The Royals Treatment

Over the course of five starts Tyler Anderson has performed as advertised, and possibly a little over expectations at times; which is kind of a welcomed consistency every five starts in a somewhat inexperienced and/or unpredictable rotation, outside of the calm hand of JT Brubaker. He won’t blow you away with velocity or dazzle you with knee bending air benders, but the command and control often speaks for itself out of the pause and hitch delivery from this crafty lefty; who allowed only one run, after a questionable call by the umpire, on three hits, while striking out five and walking two on 90 pitches across six innings.

For the Royals a formidable foe, Jakob Janis, kept the Pirates bats in check outside of a nicely directed RBI single off the bat of Colin Moran and a bloop, go ahead single from pinch hitter Wilmer Difo; giving the Pirates a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

From there, and actually from the half inning before then, Pittsburgh’s bullpen did exactly what they have done pretty much all year; as Duane Underwood Jr., Sam Howard and Richard Rodriguez allowed only one hit, struck out three and walked none to preserve a 2-1 victory over the Royals in the quick two game, middle of the week series.

News and Notes:

  • Your Pittsburgh Pirates are now 12-11 on the season, after starting the year 1-6. They now have their longest winning streak of the season, three games, and are firmly planted in the second spot in a struggling NL Central.
  • Colin Moran has a 3 for 4 night after going into a slight slump over the past week. He currently leads the team in RBIs (17) and OPS (.854), while playing a solid first base.
  • Derek Shelton needs to get Phillip Evans a breather. Over his past 7 games he is batting just .148 and if I am being honest, just looks overmatched at the plate recently. Unfortunately the Pirates outfield options are limited at this time, and with the Ke’Bryan Hayes injury last longer than expected, he and Erik Gonzalez have been forced into regular duty rather than the intended utility roles.
  • It is worth mentioning again that this Pirates bullpen has pretty much been lights out. Lead by pretty much everyone, but also highlighted by RichRod with his 0.00 ERA, .19 WHIP, 4 Saves and 10 Ks in 10.1 innings.
  • Duane Underwood Jr. earns his first win as a Pirate, and has been nothing short of impressive in the majority of his 9 appearances.

The Pirates and Royals are back at it again tomorrow inside the friendly confines of PNC Park tomorrow at 635 PM EST. For Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller (1-2, 7.16 ERA) takes the mound looking for two strong starts in a row, against Mike Minor (2–1, 4.64 ERA) for Kansas City.

Maybe I Was Unfair to Derek Shelton

It was July 27th, 2020, and the Pirates were playing the Milwaukee Brewers in game four of a 60 game abomination we called a baseball season. The Pirates were 1-2 after opening the series against the Cardinals so the sky hadn’t fallen yet.

For many of the reasons the current team was expected to be historically bad, last year’s squad was expected to perform at least a little better than they eventually would.

So when we got into the second series and the Pirates had an early chance to get back to .500 by taking the Brewers to extra innings it felt like a slap in the face of every fan to see Derek Shelton bring in Dovydas Neverauskas to pitch the 11th.

Of course the Pirates lost. You probably gathered that by the mere mention of Dovy and the fact that when discussing last season it’s a good bet.

I didn’t come right out and hammer Derek, after all we were 4 games into a season and I was much more miffed at the bats faltering than I was at the coach for pushing the wrong buttons. Ok, so I started to wonder what he was doing with the lineup everyday.

After the game Shelton said the same things he always did, he was evaluating everyone. Seeing if Dovy could handle that situation. Seeing which players fit in where in the lineup.

I think, speaking only for me, I follow the team so closely that swallowing a need to figure out what you have fell on deaf ears. I knew Neverauskas couldn’t handle that situation because I had 3 years of watching this team pretend he had MLB stuff under my belt.

I knew Jacob Stallings wasn’t a number five hitter, no not even against left handed pitching.

I knew Josh Bell changing his stance and approach mid at bat would happen all season long.

And when the season really came off the rails, I grew increasingly irritated that Derek Shelton somehow wasn’t seeing some of these basic truths.

In other words, I understood the need to evaluate, I guess I just supposed some of that should have been educated by what some of these players did before these guys got here.

Certainly the stated goal of making the players we had already better wasn’t playing out on the field as the season went on.

I closed out the 2020 season feeling pretty iffy about whether the Pirates chose the right guy to coach this ballclub. So many of his moves made no sense to me as a fan. It felt at times the approaches at the plate were screaming to me “This guy thinks he’s still coaching the power blessed Twins”.

Fast forward to this Spring.

The team made a flurry of moves. Sending out some big names for a bunch of prospects and bringing in a new approach across the board.

The team all looked like they had a unified approach at the plate. The Pitchers were going after hitters for the most part. The youngsters, the veterans. Guys Ben and crew brought in as well as guys who were retained from before.

Now with a clearly lesser roster than many teams they’ve faced, Derek Shelton seems to push all the right buttons. Man a good bullpen can really make a manager look smart, let’s not discount that.

But the lineups have been fairly consistent, he hasn’t felt the need to rest players every other day. He also hasn’t been too tolerant with players taking bad at bats. It’s not results based as much as approach based. Alford wasn’t benched or DFA’d because he had bad results, instead because he was completely lost at the plate and wasn’t absorbing whatever they were trying to get through to him, same with Fowler.

Bottom line, almost everything I had an issue with last year, Shelton has shined at this year.

Look, we’re 22 games into a 162 game marathon, I haven’t lost sight of that and clearly there is a long way to go. I’m simply saying very quickly here, Derek Shelton has shown me he has better answers this year and much like the young players improving, the coach has too.

The very reason I never went nuclear on Shelton last season happened to be an effort to live up to the mantra of our website, “Fair Pirates Coverage”. And trust me, Craig had to talk me down a couple times. Those former catchers stick together you know.

22 games in he has his ballclub 8 wins shy of his win total in 2020 and at least on the surface he’s done it with less talent, at least in the everyday lineup and starting rotation. If you had strong feelings about the job he did last season, at the very least he’s earned a clean slate to view him through this season.

I’m certainly not ready to call him Leyland or Tanner, but I’m ready to stop judging him by how he handled 2020.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 4/26/21

It’s very early in the season and the Pirates aren’t the only club trying to prove betting on Sports is just as much about luck as it is knowledge. The Giants are off to a 14-8 start, The Mets lead the NL East with a 9-8 record, the Red Sox have jumped to the front of the pack in the AL East while the Yankees are tied for the basement with the Orioles. Even the Royals who head to PNC on Tuesday are sitting in first place in the AL Central.

Much of what I just listed off probably won’t continue as the season evolves but there’s a reason they actually play the games.

1. The Pick is Becoming Clearer

It’s going to be hard to envision the Pirates taking anyone but Jack Leiter for me and if something terrible happened to Leiter I’d be compelled to take Jordan Lawler.

I know many still perceive this to be a two man race between Leiter and Rocker but Kumar is falling down the draft board, in fact most experts have him potentially as the second or even third pitcher taken.

Now, don’t get me wrong, Rocker is a hell of a talent too, but I can’t argue with every professional scout in USA Baseball. Fact is, any of the top 7 or so this season could be excellent players but I only see two of them as actual franchise anchors in 2021 and that’s Leiter and Lawler.

Before you freak out that the Pirates don’t need another middle infielder, again, the position scarcely matters. It’s either a pitcher, a catcher, or a short stop. Occasionally you’ll see an outfielder like this year’s version Jud Fabian out of Florida. But for the most part the best athletes tend to gravitate to SS.

Take a look at International signing boards, half are pitchers, the other half short stops with a sprinkling of catchers.

Back to Leiter,

The curve and fastball are two of his developed pitches. He also has a nice slider, a cutter and a Changeup he’s just started using and developing. All those pitches are certainly nice, a ton of pitchers will say they have all those, most can’t already display the consistent arm slot and deception Leiter does at this age.

If the goal is to draft a starting pitcher, Jack Leiter is the best bet in this draft.

Whoever gets Kumar Rocker will get a really nice pitcher, but I don’t see it at number one overall.

And before you push the catcher, Adrian Del Castillo on me over Lawler, that’s just not how the baseball draft works. You don’t draft for need, because often your need isn’t the same by the time they arrive. It’s also silly to ask me to look at who has what agent or who’s a Boras guy, they’re armatures so we just don’t know.

2. Territorial Pitchings

Kevin Newman is a perfect example of how pitcher approach attacking a player. In the Spring most pitchers will just throw their pitch, they aren’t trying to get hit, they aren’t trying to game plan for specific players. Nobody is looking to get pounded either, but let’s just say the scouting reports are glanced at rather than studied and executed.

Kevin changed his stance slightly this Spring, standing up a bit more and bringing his hands in so he could get through the ball with more power to the opposite field. He put a ton of that on tape this Spring and the league was watching, even while they did nothing to stop in down south.

Once the season started the plan to combat it began. See his new stance helped Kevin make better contact which takes him from a minor annoyance to a dangerous rally starter. Batting stances give and they take away. Make a change to cover the outside of the plate and typically the inside becomes vulnerable.

That’s what happened to Kevin, down and in became a dead zone and very quickly he jumped back to what he had been doing in 2020 to adjust to the attack he was facing, problem is, nobody including Newman wants to see more of what he did in 2020.

Early last week he made the adjustment to get back to what he was doing this Spring and has started spitting on that ball down and in, even if it’s a strike. It’s lead to deeper counts and harder contact early on and the struggle is to keep Kevin from reverting to previous versions of himself every time he struggles.

Now comes the part where you tell me all about his exit velocity showing him to be a terrible hitter. Right, that’s why they are making changes in the first place. His 105.7 exit velocity on Saturday’s homerun certainly shows the life is there and that was on a ball up and outer third which really shouldn’t have been pulled. Meaning it could have actually been hit harder if hit to the right-center gap.

Kevin is worth working with, this isn’t someone the team should give up on, not yet.

3. Winning Matters

Seeing the MLB club win and compete matters. Will it result in a division championship in 2021? Oh, I can’t get there, but it matters because this management team has taken players they already had and have helped them improve.

The Pirates have warts for sure, but by in large we’ve seen improved approaches at the plate. Bulldog efforts from the pitching staff and incremental improvement across the board.

It’s important primarily not because of the record this year or where they finish in 2021, but instead because for this team to actually turn this rebuild into a winning effort, one thing we can’t get there without is the development of talent.

This management team has been in place since late in 2019 and not one pitch has been thrown in a minor league contest.

We have nothing to go on but what we see at the MLB level, and that being the case, there are real signs that development is happening and it’s going well.

All of the prospects being acquired are great for the top prospect boards or the farm system rankings but if you want them to matter for the actual major league squad, each and every one of them will need to be taken from raw talent to finished product. We’ve seen our fair share of Quad A players here in Pittsburgh who go off and figure it out at the next stop, what you’re seeing this season is encouraging that those outcomes will be less frequent.

4. Hey, Maybe the Pirates Don’t Need 14 Pitchers

Don’t get me wrong, there will come a time when the Pirates pitching starts to falter, it happens to every team, every year. I think this bullpen has enough pieces to rebound from it and enough options to not every truly fall off the table, but there will be struggles at some point.

For right now though, the team has barely used Luis Oviedo, Geoff Hartlieb was called up when Chad Kuhl went on IL and wasn’t even used, Sean Poppen was called up over a week ago and has only pitched once.

Now, I could probably point to Rodolfo Castro being called up and scarcely used as well, but when you decide to use 14 pitchers and cut your bench to 4 players it seems to me if you aren’t using 2 or 3 of them regularly perhaps an extra bat would be a wise move.

The Bench as currently constructed is comprised of Todd Frazier, Rodolfo Castro, Michael Perez and Wilmer Difo. Soon Ka’ai Tom will be added to the roster and Rodolfo is a logical corresponding move, but when Ke’Bryan Hayes returns should the next move be to DFA either Frazier or Difo? Maybe it makes more sense to cut back to 13 pitchers at least until a need arises for that extra arm and give yourself a few more options off the bench.

Tom coming in can’t possibly be seen as a sure enough bet to DFA a viable player can it?

My point is, if Poppen isn’t going to pitch, let’s move him back and keep the bat, it’ll give the Bucs more options to pinch hit and to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup to account for slumps or even matchups.

Again, I understand the pitching is important, but I say, use it or lose it.

5. Measuring Stick Week for the Pirates

You can say this already happened when the Bucs took on San Diego and split the series, but let’s be honest, the Cardinals are always seen as the opponent that will show us where we are.

They always pitch, they always get timely hits and no matter how solid their roster they always play the Pirates tough. To be honest, the Pirates often play them tougher than their yearly record would have you believe.

This isn’t the Cardinals we all remember, they’re lighter on pitching than I can recall in modern times both in the bullpen and the rotation. Probable pitchers haven’t been released yet for the series but the Pirates approach to get into the bullpen will play well in this matchup.

The lineup of course has star power and power in general, in fact they only have 3 players on the roster who haven’t hit a home run, but even with a less accomplished starting rotation the Pirates are in a good position to push back on the Cards.

Don’t get me wrong, a series victory by either squad won’t mean much, but much like the series win against the Brewers and Cubs, it’s important for a young club to prove to themselves they can hang with the Bogeyman.

Pirates (11-11) Take Series from Twins with a 6-2 Victory

Starter gets through 4 or 5, bullpen keeps it close, hitting takes advantage of the opposition bullpen. This is the Pirates recipe for success, and today it was the recipe for fully coming back from a 1-6 start to an 11-11, .500 record.

Wil Crowe made his first start as a Pirate today and it was nothing short of a bulldog effort. In 4 innings he allowed 4 hits, 2 walks and racked up 3 very timely strikeouts. He’s raw, and today he and Jacob Stallings figured out early his changeup was really playing, so they rode it. Crowe will be part of this rotation at some point, and today did nothing to make you feel that’s a bad thing.

Oh, he had some help…

He exited after 4 with a 2-1 lead and then the bullpen took over. Clay Holmes went 1.1, Sam Howard went .2 to get them to the 7th clinging to a one run lead.

And then the Pirates took advantage of what is a weakness for so many clubs, the bullpen. Scoring 3 runs in the top of the 7th to really open the game up.

Reynolds provided the capper after Kevin Newman and Adam Frazier had each knocked one in.

Bryan Reynolds is just sick right now, 2 for 4 with a couple doubles, a walk and 2 RBI. If teams still think flipping him to the right side is a good play, they might want to update their analytics.

Chris Stratton came on to handle the 7th and despite a couple singles he delivered to keep the line moving. Have I mentioned how much I love what this pen is doing?

Gregory Polanco added a bomb in the 8th to make it 6-1.

The Pirates stuck with Stratton for the 8th and Nelson Cruz led off with an absolute hammer job to make it 6-2. After that he rebounded to finish strong.

On to the ninth.

The Pirates went down 1-2-3 and David Bednar was brought in to close out the game and all that slacker did was put down the Twins in order.

Bucs Win 6-2, .500 record.

Off tomorrow and back at it at PNC vs the Royals for two starting Tusday.

News & Notes

  • Phillip Evans had a base hit in the first inning and came around to score but he is in the middle of a brutal slump. It’s time to consider dropping him in the lineup and/or giving him a day off following tomorrows off day would be a nice time to do it. He looks beat.
  • Jacob Stallings does just about everything well behind the plate, but something he doesn’t nearly get enough credit for is his ability to diagnose what his battery mate has working quickly. He has helped some of these guys get deeper than they would without him back there thinking for them.
  • Chris Stratton has had outings where he looks unhittable, today he showed that while allowing a couple singles in between. If he’s your weakest link, you have a damn good bullpen.
  • Todd Frazier has started his Pirates career 0 for 15. Don’t get me wrong, just like Polanco he can change a game with one swing, just make sure you remember him and how you don’t speak of him while ripping Greg a new one.
  • Gregory Polanco went 3 for 4 today with a couple singles and a bomb in the 8th.
  • Kevin Newman had an RBI single today, but for the past 4 games he looks a whole lot more like the player who really enjoyed the Florida sun than the struggling shortstop he’s been most of the season. Adjustments made, look for him to recapture a bit of what he had found.
  • 6-3 road trip in the books. Considering they started the season with a brutal 1-5 trip this certainly has to be seen as a coup.
  • Adam Frazier continues to rake. 3 for 5 today and he is the straw that stirs the drink at the top of the order.
  • In the ninth inning up by 4 runs Bryan Reynolds barely moved his bat and was called for a strike. He would eventually strikeout in the at bat but he was about as pissed as I’ve seen him on a baseball field. Admittedly, I’ve only seen him play for the Pirates but if there’s one thing that gets under his skin it’s bad umpiring. You’ll find that with players that truly have incredible plate vision, because they know more often than not a crap call vs correct. Never think these guys don’t care.
  • Pirates relievers have hitters batting .170 against them this season.

The Pirates Bats Have To Play

It couldn’t have been made more apparent than it was in a 2-0, one hit loss at the hands of Minnesota Twins and aging lefty J.A. Happ, that pitching isn’t going to solve all of the Pirates problems; and neither is solid defense for that matter. JT Brubaker and Sam Howard took the mound for Pittsburgh, and in the process did almost every they could to put the Pirates in a position to win. In his seven innings of work Brubaker allowed only 2 runs on 5 hits, while struck out the side in the 8th. It was the kind of pitching performances you wish and hope for from the arms on your roster.

At the same time I watched Happ strike out three, which was actually just Colin Moran twice and Fraizer (Todd) once, walk two and give up one hit, I never felt like he was dominating. Sure a crafty lefty can always be deceiving, but even when I looked into the numbers, it still didn’t seem like the hitters should have been completely overmatched.

On the game Happ had just 7 whiffs and 11 called strikes over his 95 pitches on Friday night, for a CWS% of 18%; where the league average is 28.7% and a good to excellent outing is rated at 30 to 40%. Pitchers in this range are judged to be truly dealing. Clearly you can’t take away the ball one hit performance by Happ, but how much of this was on the Pirates batters?

Now of course many of you will probably be quick to point out that the bats came alive, at least to some degree, in the Pirates 6-2 win on Saturday; but I would caution you to examine how most of those hits came and who they came from. Sure the two homers were impressive, however, outside of that I saw a lot of struggles at the plate and a few pop ups that fell in for hits. And when these troubles or slumps happen, mostly on an individual basis, it is more difficult to also overlook poor defensive performances as well. This is not to say that one aspect of the game is more important than the other, but more often, a strong plate presence can mask difficulties in the field easier than a glove that plays with a bat that doesn’t.

In 2019 Kevin Newman had -7 DRS, 10 errors and a -7 OAA at shortstop, but was immediately heralded as the future at the position due to his .308/.353/.446 slash line with 12 homers and a 109 wRC+. His defensive struggles were all but ignored, and this isn’t even taking into account what the peripherals said about his bat. There wasn’t even really a question that his last plate presence would make him an everyday starter, with a 2.3 fWAR and 3.0 WAR respectively.

Flash forward to present day where Newman is hitting .172 with his one homer from Saturday, but has a 2 OAA, 2 DRS and 0 errors. Obviously, this doesn’t scream everyday short stop, or even second baseman to anyone. Just like Phillip Evans is probably not a full time left fielder based on his -3 OAA and the muff and boot against the Twins on a routine fly ball. However, if he was still hitting closer to where he was a week ago and not the .115 batting average he has posted over the last seven games, it would be a lot easier to overlook this level of play and continue to justify his place in the lineup at really any position; because no matter how much people want to focus on the positives of defense and pitching, the bat is still king in that it will help a player find his way on to the roster and into the lineup over the glove.

This assertion is true time and time again, which is evident by the Pirates leaving Cole Tucker and Jared Oliva in Florida when they headed north to receive individual instruction because they needed to work on being able to hit Major League pitching. No one is questioning their ability to be able to play the outfield, or hopefully shortstop in Tucker’s case, but they have to hit to stick, to contribute and to work towards being in a string of hitters in the lineup that don’t waste starts like Brubaker’s or a shutdown bullpen.

Every time I make this argument, Pirates Fans are also quick to mention a player like Jack Wilson, whose defense was far and away his strong suit. Many will point toward his astronomical numbers of 98 DRS from 2004 through the time he was traded to Seattle in July of 2009, but how many mention his .279 AVG over this same time period. Of course his defensive attributes would still be touted, but it’s less likely that he remains an every day player if he bats .215 or less with the Pirates; and is probably relegated to a utility man role or a late inning defensive substitution. Hell, even the Wizard of Oz, Ozzie Smith, doesn’t reach his level of notoriety if his average hovers at or the .233 AVG he held during his time in San Diego.

Sooner or later the bat has to play.

But, But, What Happens When They Trade All Their Good Players?

It’s the natural go to.

The team isn’t as bad as many assumed and while that doesn’t translate to ready to win it all, it still hits some people right in their precious belief system.

I get it entirely. There are plenty of folks out there who fear nothing more than being wrong or having closely held beliefs challenged.

So when the first prediction didn’t go as planned, let’s move on to the ‘fixer’ prediction, which is the title of this piece.

Fact is, they aren’t wrong. There will be more trades, and if improvement of this franchise and how they operate is the goal, there shouldn’t be too many fans who really get up in arms about it.

Now, it’s slightly disingenuous, they won’t trade all their best players.

I like to look at the roster like this, a series of decisions.

As I’ve told you before, look at the control of a player. For instance, Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t going anywhere, Bryan Reynolds isn’t going anywhere, JT Brubaker isn’t being dealt.

Hey, that sounds like a bunch of their best players who aren’t leaving.

Let’s look at who the team has to make a decision on this year. Because unless someone were to offer a ridiculous package for someone with more control, these are the guys to really think about. The format, is name followed by last year of team control.

Adam Frazier (2022)

Adam has turned himself into a steady second baseman, and the team has no desire to showcase him as a versatile piece, they simply want him to be a second baseman.

The Pirates have tried to have other middle infielders step up and make Adam expendable but it hasn’t happened yet.

The Pirates will have to decide whether they want to extend or move Frazier this year, because he longer they wait the less they’ll get back for him and the more he’ll cost to keep.

Colin Moran (2023)

The club doesn’t have to make a call on Colin this year, but they still might want to start thinking about it. That one extra year of control makes him ok to stay put with no decision but the club needs to honestly evaluate who they have coming that could reasonably take his spot. I don’t see anything close, so again while they don’t have to make a decision, they might want to explore a modest extension.

I do think Colin is a guy who someone might overpay for, so the Pirates should have their ears open.

Tyler Anderson (2021)

He was a one year signing, and his performance just about guarantees he will be a hot commodity come deadline time. He’s not a rock in the rotation but he’s cheap and extremely movable. Exactly the type of signing the Pirates should have brought in for the outfield.

Trevor Cahill (2021)

Same. With the exception teams might look at him as a nice bullpen piece too. Signing guys like this is about helping the team, but it’s also about helping the team in the future by bringing back more pieces..

Richard Rodriguez (2023)

Teams overpay for closers. They don’t have to move Rich Rod but he statistically has been MLB’s second best reliever over the past two seasons and he could easily return a king’s ransom. Especially if they do it earlier than they need to.

Chris Stratton (2023)

Again, they don’t have to, but it’s time to start thinking about it. He’s a versatile piece in the bullpen and the Pirates are trying to use him all over the place in all types of situations.

Kyle Crick (2023)

Really the same as Stratton but more of a focus on back end duties. He might have a tough time burring his last two seasons by this deadline but I’m sure he’ll get some attention.

After that you have your Todd Frazier, Wilmer Difo, Brian Goodwin types and everyone else is pre-arb. meaning at least 3 more full seasons. Ok, Polanco, and Gonzalez are probably available too.

This isn’t a list of everyone who’s going to be traded, this is a list of just about everyone on the table for decisions.

It’s hardly all their good players, and you can’t look at this team and trick yourself into thinking they’ve arrived. They aren’t there and what’s coming will educate some of these moves.

For instance, Miguel Yajure will wind up in this rotation at some point this year, which I can hardly say would be a downgrade from Anderson or Cahill.

This is what building teams do. So yes, they will trade some of these guys, but unless you think you’re watching a World Series team, it really is just part of the process. Prospects aren’t brought in to be prospects forever, they’re brought in to eventually make veterans expendable which leads to more you guessed it, prospects.

Don’t argue with people who say they will trade players, because they aren’t wrong, but realize it’s not without reason. And it’s certainly not all our good players. It’s a series of decisions.

Cahill Keeps To His Early Season Pattern In Pirates Win

Each time, before Trevor Cahill takes the mound, Pirates Fans hold their collective breaths, wondering what version of the veteran acquisition they are going to get. Thus far in the season he has either gotten bum-rushed from his first pitch; made to wear one because the bullpen would be taxed for seven or eight innings of work, or looked nearly untouchable, as he lulls the opposing batters to sleep with his overarching curve that starts at the eyes and slowly drops until it lands firmly in the zone.

Yesterday in Minneapolis, the later was the norm for Cahill; although it did not result in as many strikeouts as it had during his previous positive outing. However, what it did produce was a lot of soft contact and easily dealt with ground ball outs; eleven to be exact. This efficient outing caused many, who wished him DFA’d just a week ago, to once again ponder the trade value of such a pitcher on the open market because this has to be the real Trevor Cahill, and not the pitcher who gave up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in 8 innings during his two previous poor performances. But in all honesty, both this version and the one that allowed 1 earned run on two hits against the Twins in 6 innings or 1 earned run on 3 hits with 8 strikeouts when facing the Padres, are the exact same Trevor Cahill. Some days he is going to look like one of the best pitchers in the rotation, and the next he may look like a man that has never taken the mound before. It’s just who he is, and I am almost positive players don’t often reinvent themselves 13 years into their Major League careers.

Luckily for the Pirates and their fans, the efficient righty showed up on this chilly Saturday afternoon, and opposite of the previous night, when they were one hit, so did some of the bats; most surprisingly backup catcher Micheal Perez with his 3 for 3 day, which included a no doubt 408 foot homer and 3 RBIs. Not to be completely outdone Kevin Newman immediately followed up Perez’s blast with one of his own; his first on the season.

Following the offense output from some of the least unexpected places, the Pirates bullpen did what has become almost common place for them. The trio of Duane Underwood Jr., Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez struck out 5, walked none and didn’t allow an earned run in 3 innings of work; with the last two only throwing 13 pitches to get the final 6 outs of the contest.

With only 3 hits on the day and an early inning error, which jumpstarted the Pirates offense, the Twins ultimately fell to your Buccos 6-2 on the day and allowed Pittsburgh to come within one game of .500 yet again at 10-11.

News and Notes:

  • After beginning the season on an absolute tear, slashing .326/.420/.581 over the first 12 games Phillip Evans is 3 for 26 with 9 strikeouts over the last 7. Add in a total whiff and boot in the field in the 8th, and one has to wonder how long Shelton will just keep trotting him out there.
  • Colin Moran has also been struggling as of late; hitting .171 over the last week and striking out 3 times in J.A. Happ’s no hit bid on Friday night.
  • Kevin Newman got a much needed boost with a solo shot and a sac fly. Fingers crossed this is exactly what was needed to get things going after a disappointing start to the season.

  • The Pirates currently have a top 10 bullpen on the season, with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP; led by Crick and Rodriguez, who have yet to give up an earned run this year.
  • In the early going the NL Central is exactly as expected as 1st (Milwaukee) and last (Cincinnati) are only separated by 3 games, with only the Brew Crew over .500.

Later today the Pirates will try to take their third series in a row as Wil Crowe (0-0, 13.50) gets the call in his first start of the season against Matt Shoemaker (1-1, 6.28 ERA) for the Twins at 2:10 PM EST at Target Field in Minnesota.

Outfield Depth is a Problem, One That Likely Won’t End Soon

Way back before the 2020 season started, the Pirates and their new management team, looked to start the process of breaking down the team, and restocking the system.

Starling Marte was the move and the return from Arizona has a real chance to be special, but it also created a real problem for the Pirates, it left the club with only one nailed on starting quality outfielder, Bryan Reynolds of course.

It’s the pain of a rebuild. Same pain that the starting rotation is enduring. Believe it or not though, the Pirates were in better position to withstand the effort in the rotation. Players like Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, and real prospects that could step in soon like Miguel Yajure and even Wil Crowe.

The outfield has not been so fortunate, in fact the only significant outfield prospect brought back in any of the flurry of moves was Hudson Head in the Joe Musgrove deal. He’s a terrifically talented player with a ton of upside, but he’s also nowhere near impacting the Major League Club.

So this forced the Pirates to, um, get creative. They tried Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler and now Ka’ai Tom. All three are players who did well, were top prospects at one time and never really got the shot with their club. All three were low risk shots at finding an answer for right now in the outfield.

Now, saying they were forced to go this way clearly isn’t true. They could have easily invested even a little money into the position but the lure of finding a diamond in the rough who could be an answer now and for the next few seasons was more appealing to this office.

Brian Goodwin was a veteran brought in to offer some professionalism, but a poor Spring and lack of options on Fowler and Alford didn’t allow him to be an option.

When the time came to pull the plug on Alford and Fowler, Goodwin still didn’t earn the promotion. Leaving the club with 2 actual outfielders on the club, one being Gregory Polanco so you could make the argument that number is one.

Now, we haven’t seen Ka’ai Tom do anything yet. He could shock us all and really be a piece, but history tells you for every Phillip Evans, who himself is returning to the mean a bit, there are 15 Anthony Alford types.

In other words, while I hope to be pleasantly surprised, I also don’t expect to be. I mean the entire premise of the Back to the Future movie series was essentially about how difficult it is to catch lightning in a bottle.

So who is close? Well, prospect wise you’re lookin gat Jared Oliva who is now injured and inactive for at least a month. He has talent, but the club wants to see more power, and I don’t mean they want to turn a single hitter into a 4 hole thumper, I mean they just want to help some gap power emerge so he can use his speed more to push the action.

Next up is Travis Swaggerty, former number one pick, super fast, great defender. He’s also never played above High A and just because he would have played AA last season, doesn’t mean he did the work at the alternate site last year. By all accounts he impressed, even had some experts talking about him making the league this season, but let’s be honest, that comes from shear desperation. He needs time and that’s if you believe time will actually develop him, I mean he’s a career .257 hitter in the minors.

The bottom line, the Pirates don’t have a ton of answers in the system for the outfield and even dreams of seeing Oneil Cruz patrolling RF took a hit with his miserable Spring and offseason in general.

This lack of prospect capital is part of the reason the team needed to tear down in the first place, but it certainly isn’t getting better.

We already touched on Polanco, he’s probably playing his last season as a Pirate, and it will leave Bryan Reynolds on an island as the only experienced outfielder on the club.

Couple things here, first, if this club wants to make that window count, I think they have to do all they can to extend Reynolds. The outfield needs stability, and they need someone who isn’t a hope. They need someone who is a safe bet and the way Reynolds plays ball and the consistency of his approach would be a perfect anchor.

Even if you believe Swaggerty will be ready for 2022, which he certainly could be, it takes more than two. At some point either through actual capital investment or potentially even as part of a baseball trade, this team needs to get some outfield depth that’s closer to the bigs.

I could just as easily titled this piece “why they won’t cut Polanco even if you’re sick of him” because all the roster gymnastics I referenced tell you something very important, there isn’t anybody else. Not right now, and not soon. The chance that Polanco will stumble and bumble his way into 15-20 homeruns and likely finish second on the team in that stat coupled with the fact he is literally one of two qualified outfielders on the 26-man roster is the entire story.

Be irritated with him, be irritated with the team if you like, but it won’t change the reality.

Personally, I think the club could have fairly cheaply bolstered this position and given themselves a real shot at finding help for a couple seasons my taking a swing at a David Dahl type or even a Jackie Bradly Jr.

The payroll is low enough that it wouldn’t have hurt anything and they might have just paid a little for that bridge to Swaggerty.

The club has weak spots in the system, its far better than it was just 18 months ago but in some areas literally nothing has been advanced measurably.

Two names to watch, because if they evolve the outfield will have a really nice facelift on the outlook are Cal Mitchell and newly acquired Canaan Smith-Njigba. Again, they aren’t close, but they both have high ceilings and power.

Expect this position to remain an issue until such a time as they decide it’s worth more than a flyer on players who might help. Even if Tom does well, it won’t answer all the questions this team needs to answer as they continue to build.