Starter Spotlight: The Williams To Win

4-17-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Offense broke out yesterday behind a solo shot by Henry Davis and a grand slam by Oneil Cruz, the latter of which followed a benches-clearing incident involving a certain glove-tossing pitcher, the bats are showing signs of life. Can they continue it and secure a series victory? They’ll have to contend with former Pirates hurler, Trevor Williams.

Today will be the 57th start for Williams at PNC Park, by far the most in any ballpark after spending his first five seasons calling the park his home.

Despite missing nearly 4 months with a muscle strain, Williams had a strong 2024 campaign and looks to build on that success where he posted a 6-1 record with a 2.03 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 66.2 innings pitched.

His 2025 stint hasn’t started out quite as well as he enters play today with a 7.36 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over his first 14.2 innings.

Unlike his rotation partner, Mitchell Parker, Williams actually has been bit with some extreme bad luck in the early going, holding the 8th highest BABIP among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this season.

Additionally, both his FIP (3.91) and xFIP (3.80) are considerably lower than his ERA, so it’s likely he improves over a bigger sample size – just, you know, hopefully starting next week.

Looking at his arsenal, his velocity has dropped significantly from his Pirates tenure as his fastball averages 87-88 MPH – among the slowest in MLB – and both his 4-seam and sinker have been below-average pitches. 

In contrast, his mid-70s sweeper and low-80s changeup – his main secondary offerings – have graded out much more positive with plus movement at the bottom of the zone that works effectively in spite of the low velocity.

Williams also adds in a low-80s slider that hasn’t gotten great results but gives hitters a slightly different look that can be deceptive with his nearly sidearm delivery path.

Pirates hitters should be looking to target the elevated fastball today. Williams has been locating his breaking/off-speed stuff down and under the zone with his 4-seam typically upstairs against both lefties and righties.

With a chance for the series win today, the Buccos need to be hungry and be ready to swing the bats.

Starter Spotlight: Try To Park-er One

4-16-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

As the offense slumped once again last night, the team will look to turn the page as they face Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker, who has had a strong start to his 2025 campaign.

Parker had an inconsistent rookie season last year with a 4.29 ERA over 151 innings pitched. He started a game against the Pirates last year on September 7, struggling considerably as he lasted just 3.1 innings with 4 runs allowed off 6 hits, 4 walks and 5 strikeouts but has been looking much more refined out of the gate in 2025.

The sophomore southpaw has started 3 games for the Nationals this season with a 2-0 record and 1.96 ERA through his first 18.1 innings as he’s gone 6+ in each outing to date with Washington winning each of those games.

His numbers have some deflation due to his poor K/BB rates – which are among the worst in MLB – and indicate a likely regression ahead for Parker.

Parker’s ERA-FIP (-1.44) is the 9th worst differential in MLB and his xFIP of 4.89 is the 8th highest among qualified starters – far and away higher than his base ERA would dictate.

Looking at his pitch mix, Parker primarily features a low-90s fastball up in the zone which he offers just over 50% of the time. He adds in a mid-80s splitter and low-80s slider against righties with a mid-80s slider as his secondary selection versus lefties.

He has a high angle motion with his delivery, driving the ball down at an above average rate and resulting in a high ground-ball rate (51.7%).

His reliance on pitching-to-contact can work at times but eventually, the pendulum swings the other way. His BABIP (.241) is 28th lowest among qualified starters but no one ahead of him has a lower WHIP (1.20), giving ample opportunity for more hits to find grass during games.

Parker’s level of success thus far this season appears unsustainable but can the Pirates be the ones to break through? We’ll find out tonight.

Starter Spotlight: Make Or Jake Time

4-15-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

After finally breaking through with a big offensive outburst yesterday, the Pirates will look to continue the hot hitting against Jake Irvin.

Irvin enters with a 5.63 ERA through his first three starts, which came against some solid offensive opposition in the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Additionally, he lasted at least 5 innings in each of those outings, eating innings for his team.

That said, even with that bloated ERA, Irvin’s peripherals indicate he could be even worse as his 5.88 FIP is the highest among all qualified starting pitchers, buoyed by below-average rates in both strikeouts (17.4%) and walks (8.7%) and coupled with some consistently hard contact against him.

Irvin’s average exit velocity against (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (51%) each rank 4th highest per FanGraphs but his barrel rate (17.6%) is the highest mark in MLB by a considerable margin.

While I covered his pitch mix in my preview last time we faced him – where the Bucs put up 6 runs off 7 hits through 5 innings, he has pivoted a bit off his fastball.

Early on this season, Irvin is utilizing his high-70s curve low in the zone more and more, comprising 36% of his total pitches thrown this season to date.

He adds in a 4-seam and sinker in the low-90s with the sinker used mostly against righties and the 4-seam dispatched versus left handed hitters. He also adds in the high-80s changeup as a weapon when facing lefties low in the zone and a cutter that has been tossed very infrequently as he doesn’t appear to have a great feel for the offering.

Irvin has above-average extension, which allows his stuff to play up a bit more but the fastballs have been hit HARD and should be the ones targeted by Pirates hitters today.

Last season, Irvin led the National League in losses with 14 and allowed 29 home runs on the year. He gets hit hard and often, and if the Pirates can continue the magic they found in yesterday’s outing, maybe they can get on a roll this series.

Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – NL Central Basement

4-14-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates stand alone at the bottom of the NL Central, and it’s well earned. They’ve pitched well enough to win more than they’ve lost, but the bats have only really stolen one game this year.

Today, let’s focus on what they have done, some possible changes that might help and more than anything, look forward to seeing if some of these sticks can wake up against the Washington Nationals.

Lets Go!

1. Awfully Bad Offense

There are excuses of course. There always are. None that should have even this collection of players hitting this poorly mind you, but the team can point to injury, regardless of IL trips vs bench riding type.

They can’t point to a new hitting program. Even if Matt Hague came in here with some revolutionary approach at the plate (he didn’t) or took an All Star like Reynolds aside and told him he’s been doing everything wrong (he didn’t), you’d still expect the guys you expect to contribute to hit to a certain baseline.

Guys like Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes, IKF, Bart, Cutch, well, they all have to hit, at least a little. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is, and it’s no great shakes but .260 in this lineup looks like vintage Tony Gwynn.

Bart is, he’s hitting .275 and has a team leading OPS of .795. More than acceptable for your starting catcher.

Cruz and Reynolds have had rotten starts to the season. Both have dealt with injury, Reynolds to his shoulder, Cruz to his finger, but the rough start predated both of their injuries.

I don’t need to tell you that everyone else needs to get going like Derek Shelton says when asked about the offense. You all know that, but this group of guys, well, they have to hit or no call ups, no trades, no moves, no lineup adjustments, no pitching rotation decisions, no coaching changes, nothing will help.

First things first, for whatever reason, IKF is hitting the baseball. I’d move him to leadoff and try to see if you can apply more pressure on the defense with Reynolds and Cruz coming to the plate. As it stands now, a Reynolds extra base hit is an automatic Cruz walk incoming. Hopefully a guy who gets on base at a .339 clip leading into those two and hopefully a healthy Joey Bart could make the top 4 in the lineup more productive. At least you’d have a portion of the lineup for teams to think about getting through.

If they for some reason don’t want to do that, well, put Cruz at leadoff again. He’s already walked 10 times and he has a league leading 8 stolen bases. Let’s get that in front of Reynolds, move Bart up to 3 and see what comes of it. Let him stress the defense this way until he starts getting pitched to again, which hopefully Reynolds backing him would produce.

No, neither are ideal, but they have zero protection for either of their “premier” bats, and that leads to frustration and trying to do to much.

The Pirates are the only team in baseball with a team batting average under .200 at .184. The Bucs have the lowest OPS in the game at .563. They are last in baseball with a Slugging percentage of .290. There are only 3 teams with a lower team OBP at .273, one point ahead of the White Sox and Reds, and 6 points ahead of the Rangers.

26th in Homeruns with 10. Tied for 23rd in baseball with 18 doubles.

Believe it or not, with runners in scoring position, their .250 mark is 66 points higher than their team average, and good for 14th in baseball. Tangibly, what this means is they’ve had 108 chances with RISP and they’ve come up with 38 RBI, good for 24th in baseball. For perspective, the Mets only hit .163 in these situations and they have 39 RBI.

It’s bad. Ok? But this list of players, they aren’t going anywhere. They don’t hit, this team doesn’t hit. Yes, this isn’t enough to win anything that matters, but it’s enough to produce respectfully in this league, and that’s step one to climbing out of this hole.

There’s no sense in worrying about the fringes of the meal if the meat and potatoes are spoiled.

2. If We’re Gonna Lose….

If you ask Ben Cherington how he feels about the team he’s put together like they did on the Fan yesterday here’s what he pops out like Teddy Ruxpin talking to Greg Brown.

The Question: Full Compliment of players not really involved yet…

Answer: “Yeah, I think I’ve referenced in the past, my feeling that this is the deepest group of players, certainly at the upper levels that we’ve had, and I believe that. But we haven’t had the full compliment of those players to you know, lean on so far early in the season. It’s not intended to be an excuse, you gotta find a way to win.”

He loves this trope. And, hey, I like the depth near the top of the minors better too, at least on the mound, but more than anything, I started thinking, if your brightest look at what makes this a “better roster” is the guys who aren’t on it, well, maybe that should change.

Here’s the thing, if they keep going like this, we’ll see all that depth up here as course, but if indeed this depth is the reason to be excited, well, let’s use it.

I am of the belief there is very little to be gained by playing Adam Frazier or Tommy Pham. Even if they reach the heights of what they’re capable of they’re MLB bench players. Replace them with two of your incredible depth players Ben. Liover Peguero might not be much better, but he’s younger than Frazier, can play more infield spots and it would be hard to be much worse. Plus, you have to make a decision on him soon.

Nick Yorke just came off the IL, maybe get him up here to replace Frazier. He can literally do the exact same thing, plus fill in at 3B if you need it and doesn’t look like a mismatch at 1B. Matt Gorski is just about the same player as Alexander Canario, except older and his team never even tried him in MLB. Well, maybe it’s time, he can’t possibly contribute less than Pham.

Point is, Frazier and Pham were brought in here to add veteran leadership, well, there’s either nothing to lead or, as in life, people follow people who achieve, not those who yell about achieving. The literal reason stated for needing these types of players was to avoid going into long losing streaks, you know, cause they simply won’t accept it and will speak up in the room. Well, pardon me if I don’t want to listen to Mr. 2 for 40 telling me I have to step up.

I’d rather watch Gorski strike out 40% of the time than Pham. I’d rather watch Nick Yorke struggle to get his MLB footing than watch Adam Frazier continue to try to prove he still has footing.

Even if it nets the same record.

If we’re going to lose, let’s lose with guys who have ceiling room left. At least it’d remove this fake belief that having potential options is the same as having options.

That was true in 2023, not in 2025.

3. How Long a Leash Do They Give Mlodzinski?

Carmen Mlodzinski moving back to starting was a surprise. It’s something he has been pitching for 2 years to the team, and they sent him into the offseason to train as such.

Even so, without the Jared Jones injury, he probably starts in the bullpen and with Jones, Johan Oviedo, Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler all either healing or pushing, along with a bullpen in need of a hammer, I’m not sure how long this will last frankly.

I mean, we could of course have more injuries and we’ll look up sometime in July as Carmen has 15 starts under his belt, we’ll have to see how it plays out.

Sans injury though, he’s started 3 games.

March against Tampa, 3.2 innings, 4 ER. Then 5 innings against St. Louis with 1 ER. And lastly at Cincy where he lasted 4.1 innings and surrendered 4 runs.

I’m not sure if this is about guys seeing him multiple times quite yet, as much as him running out of steam, and when he runs out of steam, he runs out of answers or tries to adjust and throw harder.

Regardless, when the wheels start to fall off, they fall all the way off and you better be ready to pick up the pieces.

Young starter, so it’s hard to act like this defines his ability to do this job, but the Pirates depth here and need in the pen could mean the Pirates patience for this experiment could be shorter than it would be if they had fewer choices.

I’ve heard some claim this was stupid by the team to even attempt, but lets take a step back. If you need offense, which as we’ve discussed, they sorely do, you’re probably going to have to trade pitching to do it. So, even if you do nothing here but prove he “could” do it if you had more patience, a guy like Mlodzinski becomes a more valuable pitcher. If you don’t want to automatically have to sell Harrington or Chandler for help, don’t turn your nose up at trying to prove you have more proven depth to move.

Ultimately, I think Mlodzinski is a bullpen arm. That’s just my opinion, based on what I’m seeing, but nothing more than an opinion. If you can prove he’s capable of both, again, you can either use him yourself or to net a bat. If he’s the feature in a deal like Ortiz was and he returns a hitter, well, this was a success.

How long does it last? Well, how long before Bubba is impossible to ignore? How long before an injured arm comes back? How long before 5 innings max isn’t enough in that spot?

4. How Hot is Shelton’s Seat?

I’d say scorching. Like leather seats in August and you’re wearing shorts hot.

Dejan Kovacevic reported in his Friday insider that he’d gotten the impression that the patience isn’t infinite. Meaning sooner than later, they’ll make a change as opposed to continuing to watch this team flounder.

To add to that, I’ve heard that while they don’t believe by any measure the roster is where it needs to be or how they intended, they do believe there is enough here to be performing better than they are, and by a healthy stretch.

I’m not sure I completely agree, but it’s what I heard.

The Pirates could of course just choose to blow it all up, but if they want to go in that direction, I can’t see it in the middle of the season. They could move on from a manager, that’s not going to call for the sweeping changes that changing the GM even to an interim would create, but it would give the GM time to show he has more talent in house than the manager is making it appear.

Again, I’m not at all sure I agree, but typically, a GM will get to replace a coach before meeting his own fate, the bugaboo being here that Cherington went out of his way to not only defend bringing Shelton back, but claiming he was the right guy and hitching his wagon to him as it pertains to accountability.

Sure, Nutting can make this call from above his head, and yes, he’d have to accept it (providing he wants to keep his job for a while longer) and he’d have to publicly act as though it was his call.

That’s fine. People in this industry are well accustomed to having to tap dance for the man, but overall, many of the things plaguing this team on the field all the way from who pitches and when to who’s in and out of the lineup are at least aided by his philosophies and his analytics deciphering department that he’s expanded 3 times since being here.

If the Pirates choose to let Cherington fire Shelton and survive himself, to me, I’m telling him ok, but hands the hell off bro. The manager makes managerial decisions and if he tells you he needs something from the minors, you go get it for him. If he wants to pitch Paul Skenes as much as humanly possible instead of constantly playing games with how and when he starts, well, stand back, shut up and stay out of it.

The Owner sets the budget (not enough, but he doesn’t control how it’s used).

The Team President runs the business (badly, he’s a problem too).

The GM runs the personnel, meaning the players they acquire via trade, signing, draft.

The Coach runs the team and this typically includes at least the 40-man as it comes to input. Lineups, the Rotation, the bullpen and it’s usage, the rest schedule, everything. Derek Shelton hasn’t run this stuff without Analytics being on his shoulder guiding him since he’s been here. He has no gut, primarily because he’s rarely been left to exercise the muscle.

Chances are, this will be this regimes last year here one way or another, but Derek Shelton won’t be here come All Star Break if things don’t turn around quickly.

And yes, just like last time, Bob won’t keep him just to not pay him for not coaching. We’ve seen that movie before.

All I know is, I can smell a sales job, and every sound byte of Shelton talking about Tommy Pham leads me to believe he’s uttering the intended upside stuff Cherington sold him when they made the signing. A new coach won’t likely be sold that bill of goods. Even Don Kelly wouldn’t want to tarnish his future opportunities by failing to look like he impacted things here when handed the interim reigns.

Bob won’t sell this team. Sorry, he just won’t. But that doesn’t mean he’s just ok with limping along for half a decade.

Bob Nutting saying something like “I believe I’ve given the team everything they need to win” may sound laughable, and frankly, it is, but if you look at it another way, someone told him what “they needed” too, and he’s not just saying it to say it.

If I’m Cherington hearing that statement, well, maybe I’m the one bringing up moving on from Shelton sooner than later.

5. Why Are We Back to Watching Strike 3?

Lets say I walk into a room with 10 guys in it and I tell all 10 guys to take a step forward. All 10 do it and yet, 8 of them are farther back than the 2 tallest. Same instruction, everyone followed it, different results for a couple of them.

Well, some of this hitting stuff isn’t much different. If your overriding philosophy is to take as many pitches as you can in an at bat, well, you are going to get fooled and take a good pitch. The Pirates biggest offensive issue, talent aside, is that they don’t adjust by in large to how that philosophy needs to change with 2 strikes. It also prevents guys from getting their A swing off before they get to 2 strikes.

Better hitters mitigate this to a degree, but the best way I can put this is, their organizational hitting approach sounds good on paper, but makes very little sense when applied. And especially because of whom they have applying it.

When Ke’Bryan Hayes is going good you’ll see him take big cuts until he gets to 2 strikes, then he shortens up and almost no matter what he sees he’ll be just looking for contact the other way. When he isn’t going good, you’ll see him either continue to try to take a big cut with 2 strikes or try to get cute with taking borderline.

That’s because baked into every thing the Pirates do offensively is an overriding ethos that the hitters need to see pitches, especially against a starter. Well, that simply doesn’t work against some pitchers, or organizations for different reasons.

Take the Rays, they’re going to pull their starter 99% of the time even if they’ve got 55 pitches through 5, so all you’re doing with that philosophy facing them is helping them set you up. You’ll never get to the starter because he was gonna get got anyway. In other words, Kevin Cash is basically like thanks guys, this was great. We got to the bullpen with a lead, goodnight.

That doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t hit the guy, it just means, they’re going to throw strikes, and your ethos is going to have you down 0-2 or 1-2 before you’ve gotten settled in.

Hunter Greene just yesterday started almost everyone 0-2 or 1-2, and the Pirates had 7 innings to adjust to him. NEVER did they start swinging earlier.

Now, that’s just in general. Any given game, anyone could decide that’s not how I’m going to approach things. A great example of this is Joey Bart. Yeah, he’s not immune to the strikeout or even getting caught for a backwards K, but he gets his swing off at least once most at bats, and when he has two strikes, he seeks contact over power.

Jack Suwinski is the ultimate coachable kid. Probably too much. Tell him to be more aggressive because he got caught looking and next game you might see him swing at the first 3 no matter what. Tell him to see more pitches cause he’s batting lead off? OK, prepare for a backwards K or two, cause you don’t get those kind of at bats without taking borderline here and there. Fill his head with a certain pitch that’s been plaguing him, well, he’ll spit on it for sure, but he’ll spit on just about everything that goes in that part of the strike zone too. If anything, stay the hell away from him alltogether.

Some of the Pirates hitters simply think too highly of their eye at the plate. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have some of the best eyes at the plate I’ve seen, but both don’t adjust well to the umpire having a different vision of what that zone is tonight, and neither are likely to recover during the course of that game. Reynolds especially can’t let go of what he sees as a “bad call” and he lets it influence every at bat the rest of the game.

Of course, sometimes you just get got. It happens. You’re expecting a breaking ball on 0-2, the pitcher instead pipes one right down the slot. Well, you aren’t catching it, which is why it’s so important to change your approach there so you can at least waste one.

I can tell you this though. Nobody is coaching these guys to stare at strike 3. Or that a walk is just as good as a hit.

Poor performance breeds players hunting walks for their own self preservation. When nothing is landing, it sometimes seems easier to be patient and try to take walks to help climb out of your slump. Again, if a hitting coach has a measurable job, this is it. Help guys get out of their head and be clear in the box, ready and committed to getting at least one of their best swings off and prepared to become a singles hitter with 2 strikes.

All that being said, they are being told to be selective, and coaching needs to be more aware of pitchers that might just be suicide against. Sure, wait out Steven Matz, don’t wait out Hunter Greene. Feel me?

Series Preview: Nationals (6-9) at Pirates (5-11)

4-14-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Heading back home after the road series in Cincinnati, the Pirates welcome a third straight sub-.500 team with hopes to jump start the offense.

The Nationals are coming off dropping a series on the road to the Miami Marlins but had won series against each the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks before that and have scored 4+ runs in each of their last 9 games.

Comparatively, the Pirates haven’t scored more than 4 runs outside of an extra innings win last week and have relied on a revamped bullpen and solid starting pitching to keep them in the few games they’ve won.

4/14
Nationals: Brad Lord (R) 5 IP, 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4 K, 4 BB
Pirates: Paul Skenes (R) 18.1 IP, 1-1, 3.44 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 20 K, 3 BB

4/15
Nationals: Jake Irvin (R) 16 IP, 0-0, 5.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12 K, 6 BB
Pirates: Mitch Keller (R) 17 IP, 0-1, 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 14 K, 6 BB

4/16
Nationals: Mitchell Parker (L) 18.1 IP, 2-0, 1.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10 K, 8 BB
Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) 15 IP, 0-2, 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 13 K, 6 BB

4/17
Nationals: Trevor Williams (R) 14.2 IP, 1-1, 7.36 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 11 K, 3 BB
Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) 18 IP, 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 18 K, 4 BB

Nationals: James Wood – Wood has firmly established himself as a potential National League MVP candidate. His .977 OPS ranks 9th among all qualified position players in the Senior Circuit and tied for 4th with 5 home runs heading into this series.

Pirates: Bryan Reynolds (I guess?) – Reynolds hasn’t been able to play in the outfield due to his lingering triceps soreness but he’s starting to get the bat going a bit lately. He is currently running an 8 game on-base streak and recorded a hit in each game of the series in Cincinnati, including a double in the first inning yesterday. If he can get hot and get a few more extra base hits in there, that would go a long way to giving this team chances to score runs.

Nationals: Dylan Crews – Unlike his rookie outfield counterpart or his college teammate opposing drafted ahead of him two years ago, Crews has struggled to find success in MLB. He is currently batting .116 with zero extra base hits and 17 strikeouts to just 2 walks.

Pirates: Basically The Entire Offense – Take your pick. No one on the offense has been looking good and while the Reds have solid pitching that can make anyone look terrible, the lackluster hitting for this Pirates squad has been extremely disheartening as they rank last in MLB for batting average (.184), slugging percentage (.290) and OPS (.562) while ranking 28th in runs scored (50), 27th in on-base percentage (.273) with the 4th worst strikeout rate (25.3%).

Nationals: CJ Abrams (Right Hip Flexor Strain) – Abrams had a .874 OPS through his first 11 games prior to hitting the IL as he is continuing to surge as one of the best young shortstops in MLB but the hip issue has been a recurring issue that the team hopes to heal up with this time off his feet.

Pirates: Joey Bart (Lower Back Discomfort) – Although he hasn’t officially landed on the Injured List, Bart has sat out the past two games with back soreness after leaving the Friday outing against the Reds. Given that his .275 batting average, .370 OBP and .795 OPS all lead active Pirates players, the team hopes they are getting him back in that lineup sooner than later.

Notes

  • The Pirates bullpen has been shutdown over the past week, pitching a total of 17.1 innings and allowing just 1 earned run in that time. The 0.52 ERA since April 8th ranks best in MLB over that stretch.
  • Over the past week only the red hot Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers (both 39) have scored more runs than the Nationals (36), who led all of MLB with a 14.2% walk rate in that stretch. On the season, the team is slashing .239/.321/.404 as they have quietly become one of the better offenses in the National League.

Starter Spotlight: Oh, Lord, We Need Some Runs

4-14-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Prayers from fans have gone unanswered as Pirates appear steadfast in maintaining the worst offense in MLB. With Paul Skenes on the mound, you feel like maybe there’s a chance, but you HAVE to score runs and that’s been the hang-up for this squad. 

Today’s matchup welcomes the Washington Nationals to town with Brad Lord making his second MLB start and fifth appearance on the season.

Washington’s 22nd ranked prospect was solid in a difficult situation for his first abridged start, posting 3 shutout frames facing the dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, permitting just 2 hits and 2 walks with 4 Ks in that appearance.

It’s been an unconventional path to the majors for Lord, an 18th round pick in 2022 who spent this offseason working for Home Depot. 

He was selected out of the University of South Florida with a $125K signing bonus after posting sub-par numbers in college, tossing 61.2 innings his final year with a 5.25 ERA. 

His first full season of pro ball wasn’t exactly inspiring as he pitched 104.2 innings between low-A and high-A ball where he was older than much of his competition and combined for a 4.04 ERA across those levels.

He stepped things up in 2024, posting an organization-best 2.43 ERA with 135 strikeouts across 129.2 innings, ultimately finishing the year in AAA Rochester.

He earned an Opening Day roster spot and had pitched out the of bullpen before his starting debut last week, combing for a 1.80 ERA and matching 1.80 WHIP through his first 5 innings with Washington.

He has added velocity in the offseason as his fastball has jumped up from averaging 91-94 last year to around 95-96 this season as his main offerings are his 4-seam and sinker.

He’ll add in a mid-80s slider and changeup around 87-88 but has primarily worked with fastballs against opposing hitters so far.

It’s a small sample but Lord has not had the best control, trying to work the edges and falling out of the zone on many of his pitches, leading to an early 5 walks to 5 strikeouts mark.

He mostly works up and away against lefties and, if he’s not right on the money with those pitches or not getting calls on the borders, it’s going to force him more into the black of the zone. 

Protect middle and take borderline pitches early. Make him get the established strike zone before trying to force something to happen. 

This team DESPERATELY needs something to get the offense on track and, Lord willing, maybe that something comes tonight.

Starter Spotlight: Greene With Envy

4-13-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

This offense is tough to watch against normal pitching but going up against Hunter Greene today – who finished 8th in Cy Young voting last season – is a whole different animal.

This team has shown a complete inability to hit anything so maybe facing one of the best pitchers in baseball turns things around?

Greene enters play today with a 1.31 ERA and 23 strikeouts through 20.2 innings pitched. He’s fresh off statistically the best start of his career as he went 8.2 shutout against the Giants allowing just 4 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts in the match.

The Pirates and Greene are VERY familiar with each other, having faced off 7 times previously. And while Greene has a 3.00 ERA with 51 Ks over 36 innings pitched in those outings, he’s posted a 0-4 record in those games (as covered here, here and here).

He’s in a good spot though heading into today’s matchup. While Pirates fans are seeing green, it’s a lot of red in his metrics as he is among the best in MLB in chases, whiffs, strikeouts and walks while throwing one of the hardest fastballs among starting pitchers.

While previously struggling with control issues (career 9.3% walk rate prior to this year), he’s been much more locked in with just 3 free passes issued so far.

Greene is basically a two-pitch starter who looks to fill up the strike zone with his overpowering fastball that hits triple digits while dropping a high-80s slider down in the zone to mix speeds and change the batter’s eye line. He’ll mix in a splitter and a curve but they’ve become secondary to the top two offerings which comprise nearly 90% of his total pitches thrown.

Look for the fastballs up in the zone and stay locked in early for that hard heat and big breaking sliders that can drop out of the zone and get some BIG whiffs.

Focus on the fastball and just try to get a bit of offense going or else Cincinnati won’t be the only Red this fanbase will be seeing.

Starter Spotlight: All Abbott Andrew

4-12-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

In a southpaw showdown today, Andrew Heaney will face Andrew Abbott, who is making his 2025 debut. A left shoulder strain ended his 2024 campaign prematurely and delayed his start to this season as well but the 2021 2nd round pick is back and eager to pick up where he left off.

Abbott made 25 starts last season, posting a 10-10 record with a 3.72 ERA through 138 frames. He was slated to make his next start against the Pirates on August 23 before being shutdown for precautionary reasons, returning in spring training to make 2 starts where he pitched 7 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs, 4 hits, 1 walk and striking out 5. 

The 25-year old lefty started the season on the IL, pitching two games for the Louisville Bats and posting a 3.60 ERA over 10 innings with 8 strikeouts but also 5 walks.

He doesn’t have overpowering velocity but works the sweeper/changeup/curve combination low in the zone to generate whiffs and weak contact. His hard hit rate of 33% was the 10th best among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched in 2024.

Last season, he threw the fastball over 53% of the time and that is the pitch Pirates hitters should key in on. It resulted in a .254 opposing batting average and 92.8 MPH exit velocity, by far the highest result among his offerings. Additionally, 14 of his 25 home runs last season came off of his fastball – and the Great American Ball Park is notoriously a home run park.

Take walks and lay-off the breaking stuff down but look to drive the elevated off-speed or high heaters against Abbott.

Starter Spotlight: Make Him Sing

4-11-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Reds open the weekend series in Cincinnati with one of their top offseason acquisitions, Brady Singer, on the bump for the Friday evening game with the Pirates.

Following 5 seasons with the Kansas City Royals where he went 36-44 with a 4.28 ERA in 685.1 innings, Singer was traded to Cincinnati for former Rookie of the Year, Jonathan India which provided a top-of-the-order bat for KC and another rotational piece for the oft-injured Cincy squad.

Singer has had two excellent starts to open his tenure in the Queen City, posting a 2.25 ERA and 2-0 record with 15 strikeouts to just  3 walks over his 12 innings pitched this year.

His ERA has him ranked 35th among starting pitchers with 10+ innings, his xFIP is the 21st lowest among this group and his FIP ranks 2nd best, indicating potential sustainability behind his early 2025 success.

Last time Singer faced the Pirates on September 15, he allowed 4 runs in 5 innings off 6 hits and 4 walks with 6 strikeouts but he’s made some changes since moving to Ohio.

Previously, Singer primarily relied on a low-90s sinker and low-80s slider combination, mixing in a 4-seamer in the low-90s, a low-80s sweeper and an infrequent and ineffective changeup that averaged 88.

Now, he’s ditched the changeup which was hit at a .429 clip last year and added a cut-fastball which he has deployed as a weapon against lefties and has proven successful in the early going, generating the lowest average exit velocity among his offerings.

He’s also picking his pitches better overall, focusing on getting strikeouts over just generating weak contact. His jump from 22.3% K rate last year to 30.6% this season is one of the highest increases among qualifying pitchers from last season while subsequently reducing his walk rate from 7.1% to 6.1%.

It’s just two starts and not necessarily a gold standard for how he will perform moving forward but early returns are strong for Singer.

Keys to winning will be going heavy with lefties and trying to force Singer off the cutter in those instances.

Lefties are batting .261/.308/.348 compared to .182/.217/.227 for righties against Singer. And the cutter has been the most effective pitch at neutralizing left handed hitters as they’ve hit .375 against the slider this year while, despite only batting .125 against the sinker this season, hit the pitch at a .288 rate last year.

He is going to try crowding hitters with these offerings, working the sinker/slider when he’s behind in counts to get into the zone. The team has to be ready to pounce when he puts something out that is music to their ears.

Series Preview: Pirates (5-8) at Reds (5-8)

4-11-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Reds and Pirates have entered the season with similar goals on the year and have struggled in essentially the same ways out of the gate. The Pirates offense ranks dead last in MLB for batting average (.198) while the Reds are pacing 14th in the NL in that category (.206).

Despite the ineptitudes with the stick for both teams, the pitching for each side has been much better. Cincinnati’s rotation has posted the 4th lowest ERA (2.81) and trail only the Philadelphia Phillies in K-BB% (18.2%).

The Pirates have had some issues in the bullpen early on but their pitching corp is starting to click lately, combining for a 2.79 ERA over the past 4 games this week with a K-BB% of 19.8% over this time span.

4/11

Pirates: Bailey Falter (L) – 10 IP, 0-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9 K, 1 BB

Reds: Brady Singer (R) – 12 IP, 2-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10 K, 3 BB

4/12

Pirates: Andrew Heaney (L) – 12 IP, 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 12 K, 2 BB

Reds: Andrew Abbott (L) – (2024 stats) 138 IP, 10-10, 3.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 114 K, 52 BB

4/13

Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski (R) – 8.2 IP, 1-1, 5.19 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB

Reds: Hunter Greene (R) – 20.2 IP, 1-1, 1.31 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 23 K, 3 BB

Pirates: Joey Bart – Bart walked off the final game against the Cardinals on Wednesday with a long single to left field, continuing to show that the bat that led the Pirate offense from last season is still there. Over that Cardinals series, Bart went 5-for-11 with 3 extra base hits and 4 RBI.

Reds: Jose Trevino – Trevino was signed this offseason after spending the previous three years as backstop for the Bronx Bombers and has been able to hit in an underperforming lineup. The former Platinum Glove-winner has a .273/.333/.455 slash line over his first 25 plate appearances with plus defense behind the dish.

Pirates: Adam Frazier – Plenty of hitters are struggling but no one more to the detriment of Frazier, who has been playing more than expected following the Nick Gonzales injury. Among hitters with 40+ plate appearances, Frazier ranks 5th worst in wRC+ and OPS in MLB.

Reds: Jeimer Candelario – One of the few players who has been statistically worse than Frazier, Candelario’s .140/.208/.163 has him at 4th worst in MLB for both wRC+ and OPS with a -0.4 bWAR in the early going for the veteran switch-hitter.

Pirates: Jared Triolo (low back strain) – He might not provide much – if anything – with the bat but the defending Utility Gold Glover has continued to post strong defense wherever the team plays him.

Reds: Matt McLain (left hamstring strain) – McLain has been one of the handful of hitters providing pop in this Reds’ lineup with a team-leading 3 home runs before landing on the IL this week.

Notes

The Pirates and Reds have one of the oldest rivalries among all professional sports that dates back to 1882, with the Bucs holding a 1,247-1,227 record over Cincinnati. The Pirates won 8 of 13 matchups last season and, if they are going to have any chance at October baseball, will need to be able to win these affairs this year as well.