The Simplest Answer

As a eighteen year old kid, straight out of the sticks, I sat down in my 8 AM college Theology course ready to be instilled with the education my parents honestly paid way too much for; probably a little hungover, or at least extremely tired from a some late night GoldenEye. Suddenly my professor began to speak in what sounded like a foreign tongue; explaining a concept that sounded so involved and difficult to decipher. Immediately, without thinking, I jotted down the principle of Occam’s Razor using the simplest equation possible, so that any idiot, including myself, could understand; don’t over explain + don’t over think = truth is in front of you. Sounds easy enough, right? Yeah, at least it should be.

Unfortunately, it is our nature to question things, even when the most straightforward answer is staring us in the face. This is especially true as a baseball fan, who tries to use advanced metrics or other any other reasoning possible to try to explain why our team, or an individual player, is successful, could turn things around, is failing, or in the worst case scenario, will continue to flounder. Ultimately we are are looking for ways to prove that our analysis is right, when honestly we should just work on accepting the truth.

This concept is one that may hit a little close to home for the Pirates faithful, because if I am being honest, they are looking for any reason to have hope; and genuinely I can’t blame them on the account of the fact that I am one of them.

Prior to the start of the season many were made to think Anthony Alford could be the answer in centerfield, Gregory Polanco should bring back a ransom if he played well, a rotation absent a proven starter would perform well, a strong bullpen was the answer to keep the Pirates in games, defense was the most effective way to help out less than experienced pitching and that glimpses of promise shown in Spring Training could be easily replicated.

However, after seeing this team play in several meaningful games, there can’t be any way for even the most optimistic fan to hold on to the original aspirations for a Pirates. There was absolutely no realistic scenario where every single player was going to be the best version of themselves that they have ever been; you know the 30 second clips of their best pitches or the one home run they hit sandwiched in between 10 strikeouts. Sure things can improve incrementally for individual players, and for some it better; but as a team we had to know the results weren’t going to be there immediately.

For a team, such as the Pirates, that is obviously in the early stages of a rebuild, there aren’t as many reasons to get up for game time when the end result is almost certain; which is where the coaching staff comes in. While they aren’t miracle workers, it shouldn’t be too much to ask to for your team to look and play like professionals, rather than watching them make mental and physical errors each and every game. In the end it all comes back to fundamentals.

Being fundamentally sound will sometimes be the only way a team with less skill level is able to compete; and I hope you know I am not taking about division titles, or at the very least steadily showing improvement by not making the same mistakes on a constant basis.

Now, I am pretty confident in assuming that this isn’t the type of article you expected to read on the morning of a home opener, and it absolutely isn’t the one I wanted to write. However, this is where the Pirates are, like it or not. There a long road ahead, no need to over think it; because the truth is right in front of us.

Pirates Lose 11-4, but They Started Losing This One in the Spring

Same story, different day.

Stop me if you heard this one. The Pirates starting pitcher gave up a gopher ball to lead off the game and then the defense jumped in to make sure it got worse.

We’ll get back to more of what went wrong but let’s backtrack just a bit, all the way back to Spring Training.

First, I fully understand Chad Kuhl was away from camp and that stunted his process a bit, but overall the Pirates paid very little attention to getting the starters in a place where 5 or 6 innings would be a possibility. In fact back in 2020 Mr. Shelton bragged at how proud he was to have his pitchers stretched out to five innings, even as we watched the Indians starters go 7 or 8 in the tune up games. We knew this would be an issue, and it was. Here we are again, another Spring spent not focusing on getting the pitchers ready to provide some length and another season of everyone but the staff realizing this was an issue.

Just so you don’t think I’m picking on a bad start, I wrote about this being an issue I was concerned about WAAAAAY back in the first week of Spring.

The team philosophy has been to amass arms and they stated the probability of using upwards of 25 of them this season. OK I thought, I can see that, the team and hey all teams for that matter are going into the unknown a bit this year, but does that mean we can’t get the starters ready to give you five or six?

They stretched some of them out, Tyler Anderson, Chase De Jong, JT Brubaker to name the couple I can think of who actually started putting together something that resembled a start during camp. One of them didn’t even make the club as you know.

Now the season starts and you have Chad Kuhl who was built up to maybe 60 pitches if I’m being kind. Tyler Anderson who was looking ok for 80 or so, same for Brubaker. Cahill just arrived and got out a couple times, never more than 2 or 3 innings. Keller went as deep as 3, 4 if you count coming out and going back in.

Why?

Why not focus on setting them up to do the job they were assigned? I’d tell you it’s killing the bullpen but in reality it hardly matters by the time they hand it off to the pen. They’re tossing a ton of innings but honestly it’s garbage time.

Clay Holmes blew up yesterday, Chris Stratton today, and Feliz both days. Who cares? By the time any of them came in the game was long since out of hand. They just want contact and innings at that point, so who knows where they really are in their progression.

Save telling me that Feliz sucks or Holmes sucks, it’s really not the point. The point is Mariano Rivera wouldn’t come in down 10-0 and throw his best stuff with gusto.

The rotation wasn’t going to be good, that’s a fact that I defy you to show me anyone serious disputing all off season. But what the Pirates did this Spring is nothing short of setting them up for failure.

It’s a systemic failure, one that its far too late to correct. At this point they can only be stretched out by pitching during the regular season and that is going to require some of them wearing it.

The way things have started, it’s hard to see sticking with who they began with for long. Even if the record doesn’t matter this year, which it certainly doesn’t, nobody is going to learn or improve when the club is down by five after an inning or two every night.

Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure, Chase De Jong and even the knuckleballing gimmick Wright will make their way up here soon if things don’t change and being that 3 of the five starters have little to no chance to be on this team past this season, maybe that’s how it should be anyway.

Sure hope they’re stretching them out at the training site, you know, learning lessons from the failures of the very recent past.

We’re six games in to the 2021 season and the Pirates are 1-5, that’s not a shock. The fact that everything they worked on and preached all Spring happen to be in a complete freefall is.

What I think we’re watching isn’t just a bad team. It’s a bad team that on top of needing to maximize the talent they have came into the season not prepared to put their best foot forward by simply not preparing some of their “arms” to give the club anything resembling a start.

If you want to know why I’m not spending a bunch of time feeding you a line about how encouraging the 9th inning was, it’s because it didn’t matter, in any way. They were down 11 and took advantage of a rusty closer in a VERY non save situation.

Time to find a way to reset the club, a home opener should help from a mentality standpoint, but it still won’t help them recover from the awful position management helped put them in from the jump.

News & Notes

  • Chad Kuhl pitched a regrettable 1st inning then fought through 3 more but the starting pitching we all expected to see is certainly not outperforming.
  • Wilmer Difo had 3 hits, normally that would be a beacon in an otherwise bleak landscape, unfortunately he had an inexcusable error in the first to make things worse than they already were and then made an error on the base path to fail to score on an extra base hit from second base.
  • Phil Evans had a hit, but he too made a terrible play in LF allowing a 9th run to cross the plate, not that it mattered for much beyond simply noting it happened.
  • Professional at bats remain few and far between, today Colin Moran was the only one who seemed to have an approach and he was held hitless.
  • David Bednar even got in on the act giving up back to back solo shots.

It Counts as One Loss

Ok, so that sucked. 14-1 isn’t ever going to look good.

Losing by two touchdowns to your biggest rival would stink in any sport, no matter where you are in your development. It happens, especially in that ballpark, but this wasn’t just a bad outing no this one showed some things that denying won’t fix.

The recipe for the Pirates to make everything work is one of very precise measurement. One ounce too much of bad starting pitching and the soufflé will fall. Two or three too many bad at bats and an inning turns over too quick sending that shell shocked starter right back out.

I’d love to say this was a bunch of bad luck, because there legitimately were just an incredible amount of bloops and seeing eye ground balls all night, but when the offense only goes out there and puts 5 hits and 1 walk together as an offensive ‘attack’, well it’s hard to say luck had much to do with it. Maybe luck made it worse than 6-1, that’s about as far as I can go.

Truth is, from the moment Ke’Bryan Hayes went down with a wrist injury the team just deflated. It’s been visible, and just about undeniable.

Phil Evans, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Colin Moran, Buccos fans, meet the four individuals on the ball club who haven’t looked like Hayes being hurt meant we’re on break.

In fact in last night’s contest the most shocking stat might be that the Pirates were only tagged with one error.

It’s an all around collapse of an entire team philosophy at the plate, and if it’s a leadership issue, at least one of two things must be true. One, they never had a leader or two, their leader is a 24 year old who is on IL.

Either of those would be a bad sign honestly.

I’m being dramatic of course, about every aspect of this one loss if I’m being straight with you. But I can’t deny that from the moment Hayes went down the team has looked different in every aspect of play. Defensively, the approach at the plate, even on the mound.

I hate to make too much of it, after all we spent the entire off season telling each other they’d stink to different degrees, so this shouldn’t exactly shock us.

Even Trevor Cahill’s performance was expected. I just said on my podcast last week that Cahill will either get crushed, strike everyone out or somehow muddle through, but one thing he won’t do is change the pitches he throws to get to the outcome. In other words, he’ll not change what he throws or how he throws it, the difference will be the type of swings that get put on his stuff.

That’s very true. Craig Toth likes to refer to him as a right handed Derek Holland and while that might give you night sweats to think about he’s dead on. Every once in a while that’s going to look good, just not often enough for you to ever call him good.

The defense has been another story because the issues have largely come from a position most of us considered to be completely covered, second base. The error isn’t always the story. Sometimes it’s the plays that don’t get called. For instance in the early going Monday when Phil Evans threw to second base trying to start a double play and the Pirates ended up getting nobody out.

He received the ball and delivered a strike to Frazier, so no error. But Evans could have been a bit quicker to release the ball and Frazier could have realized the play was slow developing and stretched toward Phil to ensure they got the lead runner. Instead he stayed in double play receiving position and they got nothing.

Small play, but it’s part of what helps Frazier keep his numbers looking clean most of the time while still not impressing most who watch him everyday with the glove. Again, that’s not all on him and if Hayes is there that ball is on him like white on rice. But this isn’t a club that can afford to give plays away.

I’m not here to tell you this is all about effort or execution.

Most nights the reality is this team doesn’t have enough to win. We said it before the season, and just because they’re actually playing doesn’t mean that has changed. They are however good enough that games getting this out of control shouldn’t be a thing, at least not a common occurrence.

Clearly once does not make a common occurrence but it sure was three games worth of bad piled into one wasn’t it?

Sometimes games like that break out and there is a fight at the bat rack, hell even the Pirates of last season posted 10 once, but it’s safe to say they need to tighten some approaches up and get back to the patient at bats they were trying to take in the opener.

Kyle Hendricks hasn’t been the only pitcher they’ve faced who was missing the zone, but he’s the only one they’ve made pay.

The patient, opposite field approach that we watched all Spring and in the first game of the season just largely disappeared. With four players trying to keep the ship moving forward there are plenty of opportunities for pitching to tiptoe through the minefield and get their outs around those few.

Look, I’m not big on believing a coach can yell his guys into staying on script much less being good, but at the very least I’d like to see them look like they have some interest in trying to get back to what worked. And if anyone on this club wants to call themselves part of the solution, maybe start solving some things.

Pirates Can’t Fend Off The Reds Attack

Prior to the second game, of a three series at Great American Small Park, the announcement of Gregory Polanco being on the bench with Phillip Evans in his place brought exuberant applause from many a Pirates Fan; and in all honestly how could you blame them after his 1 for 14 start to the season. Looking lost at the plate at times, as well as in the field, it was almost a no-brainer to give him the night off in favor of the streaking Evans; who had homered the previous night to follow up a three hit performance on Easter Sunday.

On the mound for Pittsburgh was a bit of a wild card in the form of Trevor Cahill; brought in by the Pirates toward the end of Spring Training, and appearing in only two games, Cahill had spent the majority of his past two seasons as a regular starter that was eventually relegated to the bullpen during his time with both the Angels and Giants. In Los Angeles he struggled in the role of a reliever/opener, but thrived for the Giants as he once had with the Cubs; posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 31 Ks in 25 innings.

As I sat down to watch the game I was cautiously optimistic about both situations, however, part of this enthusiasm was quickly swept away as the Reds leadoff hitter, Tyler Naquin, took Cahill’s offering deep, over the right field wall. Then it was ultimately crushed in the bottom of the second as Naquin homered again, this time with two runners on base, to give Cincinnati a 5-0 lead. Throw in an error, a wild pitch, a couple more innings, two more runs and Cahill’s day was done after 4 innings.

Unfortunately, even with Cahill out, the Pirates day didn’t get any better. Clay Homes lasted only a third of an inning; surrendering three runs of his own and getting stuck with five total when Duane Underwood Jr. allowed his inherited runners to score on a Naquin single; bringing the Reds total to 12 on 14 hits.

Meanwhile the Pirates did their very best to make the Reds lefty, Wade Miley look like a Cy Young candidate by only compiling 2 hits and striking out 6 times through 6 innings. Eventually some of the initial hope was restored when Evans homered in the top of the seventh, his second in as many days, but after that I was almost praying for the game to end quickly before things got any worse; which was near impossible at that point.

When all was said and done the Pirates fell to the Reds 14-1 in an all out shellacking in Cincinnati.

News and Notes:

  • The Reds Tyler Naquin went 3 for 4 with 7 RBIs.
  • Phillip Evans is now 5 for 12 on the season with 2 homers, and pitched a scoreless bottom of the 8th, so there’s that.
  • Bryan Reynolds has at least one hit in all 5 games.
  • Dustin Fowler recorded his second hit of the season, while Anthony Alford is now 0 for 10 with 7 Ks.
  • The Pirates only have one game without an error this season. Tonight obviously wasn’t the one.

The Pirates and Reds are back at it at 12:35 PM EST, as Pittsburgh looks to avoid the sweep, with Chad Kuhl (0-0, 3.00 ERA) on the mound for his second start of the season. For the Reds, Luis Castillo (0-1, 21.60 ERA) is looking to bounce back from his disastrous first outing of the season.

The League Will Always Show Your Issues

When it comes to hitting a baseball, it doesn’t take long to identify what opposing pitchers think you can and can’t do well. Fail to prove them wrong and you’re destined to watch that weakness put under near constant attack.

For some players this weakness simply means attacking them in a certain area is the safest play, but in no way equals an automatic out. That distinction is what separates below average players from very good players.

We’ve watched this for years as Pirates fans. Gregory Polanco can’t hit anything outside especially from a lefty. Pause here for jokes that he can’t hit anything. It’s so established that I don’t really want to waste much time on him if I’m honest. No matter how Greg eventually finds his way out of town, the fact is he’s on his way.

Now there are some players who the Pirates want to understand a bit better. Anthony Alford, Dustin Fowler specifically both need to be tested and tried.

Alford has shown a penchant for striking out so far that easily rivals Polanco and that’s not a skill you’d like to see him absorb. He’s shown that he doesn’t have the patience to spit on balls down and in. In fact he’s only faced 61 pitches in 2021, with two batted balls none of which were barreled.

You can’t get much more small sample size than that, but for his career that officially started at the MLB level back in 2017, he’s only faced 412 pitches which resulted in 3 barrels resulting in his 3 career homeruns.

This doesn’t mean he’s done or the Pirates shouldn’t at least explore working him through this, but it does mean the issue has been identified and until or if he is able to adjust and make pitchers pay for it he’ll continue to struggle.

One thing Anthony does, he takes his walks, and for someone with his speed tool that’s a plus. The way he’s hit it’s difficult to put him anywhere but the 8 hole, but let’s be honest, a pitcher for the most part will happily take a walk in front of the pitcher especially when a strikeout will come just as often statistically speaking. Yeah, I wouldn’t throw him anything to hit either.

Dustin Fowler has had even fewer opportunities this season but he’s largely done the same with his chances. We’re talking about a K% of 37.5 and at least for Fowler I can honestly say this isn’t his norm. In a much bigger sample provided back in 2018 he was sitting at 23.2%, so perhaps Dustin is quite literally just suffering from extreme small sample hell.

Point is though, strikeouts are predictable based on zones. Down and away from pitchers who throw from both sides are kryptonite for Fowler and he just can’t seem to spit on them, at least in the early going.

Look, I’m in no way telling you this by way of making it seem we’ve been too tough on Polanco, we haven’t. What I am saying is it’s not exactly like one of the other outfielders is jumping off the page as an upgrade for Greg.

When Ke’Bryan Hayes returns, perhaps Phil Evans could slide out to Right Field and give the Pirates at least another competent bat in the outfield. Even he doesn’t hit like a corner outfielder, but at this point I’ll settle for someone playing there and hitting anything.

But more than anything it’s hard to envision any team in MLB carrying 4 outfielders and only really getting production from one. Again, we’re 4 games in, but it’s pretty easy to see the best that can be hoped for is “ok”.

The patience to watch it play out is understandably in short supply, especially for Polanco. There is just nothing left to learn there, no more hoping it clicks. If anything we wait for his patented hot streak where he seemingly can’t be retired for a week.

Alford and Fowler on the other hand have years of control and very limited opportunity under their belts. Speaking only for myself I’d like to see them get the lion’s share of at bats moving forward. I don’t say this believing the production is going to jump off the page suddenly, but by the end of 2021, I want no more ifs on either of them. They either stay here as part of the solution or they leave as failed experiments that cost the team nothing to try. Playing both while sitting Polanco would at least get one of them out of the 8 hole every game and that would at least be giving them a fair shake.

I mean, there is a reason everybody predicted the team to lose a bunch more than they win. Point is though, if Polanco isn’t going to hit, we might as well make sure we get answers on the other options. I think I probably know those answers, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t flesh this out.

It’s also incredibly difficult to preach the virtues of small ball to a club that has 3 or 4 players in the everyday lineup providing little resistance. Strikeouts are going to happen, but many of these players aren’t even talking competitive at bats with regularity and that just isn’t going to help anyone. The principle simply doesn’t work without contact.

Brian Goodwin, Troy Stokes Jr., Jared Oliva, Chris Sharpe, Bligh Madris, and eventually Travis Swaggerty are all backing this mess up. Spend half a season getting answers on the options they went with out of camp and if they need to cut bait do it and start answering the next wave of questions.

The bar for what looks like success couldn’t possibly be lower than it is right now when it comes to outfield help.

Bryan Reynolds is quite literally the story when it comes to production out there and that simply can’t and won’t be enough, ever. That is no way an indictment of Reynolds, it’s instead to say that the Pirates should waste no time motoring through their options because the picture doesn’t start looking better until someone not named Bryan starts hitting out there.

Pirates Fall 5-3 to the Reds

At some point the Pirates need to put it all together in one game, tonight was not that night. The bats have been a few big swings away from doing nothing for two games straight now while the pitching has kept them in just about every contest.

Neither of these units are perfect, and they don’t need to be. But tonight a very good overall pitching performance by the staff, minus Michael Feliz really, fell apart with poor defense and an abysmal amount of support.

The Pirates are 1-3, have been in every ballgame, and they’ve won when they scored more than 3, lost when they scored 3 or less. The bullpen is strong enough to sustain this team if they can only get mediocre starting pitching. I think beside the obligatory blow up games that happen to everyone time to time they’ll keep the team in most contests.

So that puts the onus on the offense to show up. Without Ke’Bryan Hayes, Colin Moran has stepped up, Phillip Evans has stepped up. Reynolds has taken his walks and was rewarded tonight with a blast of his own, but by in large the bats aren’t enjoying the colder climate.

This will be the story all season. How many runs can this offense put up? If the answer is more than 3 I like their chances most nights, if the answer is less, I don’t.

Offense can even influence the final score further, because if it’s 3-0 Shelton might want to pitch his least steady option whereas 3-1 might mean a more reliable option. Offense showing up, even threatening by walking 11 times in a game stresses the opposition, and their staff. It’s essential to winning baseball and ultimately I like the pitching side’s answers more than the bats. And again that’s with mediocre starting pitching. One thing you can’t do is strikeout 15 times, many of which were 4 pitches or less. That’s not a competitive at bat and it’s not just Polanco. He’s the biggest target for a ton of reasons but he is by far not the only one. Anthony Alford and Dustin Fowler have been just as inept.

News & Notes

  • Reynolds (1 RH), Moran (2) and Evans (1) all hit solo shots in the contest, not all GABP shots either. Evans jack went an estimated 446 feet.
  • Derek Shelton trusted Rule 5 pickup Luis Oviedo in the fifth inning with a 2-1 lead. He would give up a homerun to Moustakas but finished with two strong innings. First, that’s a ton of trust for the 21 year old. Second I love it, because he’s the perceived biggest question mark and let’s go get the answer. Good start.
  • JT Brubaker walked four in his four innings of work but he exited with only surrendering the one run. Now that is not where he wants to land, but Brubaker commanded his pitches well if not being a bit too nibbly with a hot hitting Reds lineup. He’ll improve, this was in no way what Keller has been doing in case you didn’t see the difference by watching both.
  • Michael Feliz really struggled in his appearance, this is much of what we’ve seen from Feliz over the years. If the movement on the slider is too good he can’t control it, if it’s not good he get’s pounded. He has this sweet spot for spin rate and its like finding a four leaf clover at times.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 4-5-21

The start to the season has had good and bad. We’ve covered all of it but the biggest positive I could take away might be the simple fact that they had a chance to win all three. That’s what a bullpen will do for a team. Despite all the warts this club has that one area is something that will keep the club in most games and early on they can afford to lean on them so heavily. Come July, if nothing has changed, we’ll start to see why they needed to stockpile so many arms in AAA, because they’ll simply kill most of the pen.

Baseball is at it’s core a story, one that unfolds all season long, and while what happens in game 2 isn’t as important as being in the thick of things come August, things that happen now have direct affect on clubs as they move forward.

Let’s dig in here and see what’s on the old noodle today.

1. Oh Mitch

There is no way to watch the struggles of Mitch Keller and not think back to the struggles of another young man who had incredible stuff and excellent control numbers in the minors but couldn’t figure it out when he made it to MLB.

That’s right, I’m referring to Tyler Glasnow. Before you tell me how tall Tyler is or that he has a better fastball, I’m not trying to make a direct comparison between the players side by side, I’m simply saying there is a lesson there that we should all pay attention to.

Glasnow was labelled the classic Quad A player. For those of you not well versed in the baseball insult world, it means he was never going to figure it out, too good for AAA, not good enough for MLB. Realistically though, he was a guy who came up and got roped all around the ballpark. He had never had his stuff hit like that at any level and it creates an immediate questioning of everything he ever learned or threw.

Things that worked in AAA like bouncing a curve a foot in front of the plate or throwing a fastball 10 inches above the zone no longer garnered swings and misses to get him out of a painful situation.

No this wasn’t a product of pitch to contact, this was a player who didn’t trust his electric stuff could get outs if he threw it in the zone.

That, is where the similarity is. Mitch too has incredible talent, he simply doesn’t buy it when others are begging him to trust it. He says it after the game. He says I need to hit the zone more, I need to throw more strikes, but ask any pitcher what a pitch thrown without confidence and conviction tends to come out like.

They have to fight through this together. That’s the bottom line. The answer remains up in the air on Keller but if they reach the end of 2021 and still aren’t sure if Keller is part of the future or yet another youngster who can’t make the final jump that is a failure this club can’t afford.

2. The Blue Was Brutal

The Pirates didn’t do enough to win this weekend in Chicago, but they certainly got no favors from the umpires. Game one was called pretty straight and the Pirates walked 11 times and happened to win the ball game. Games 2 and 3 were all over the place.

When you’re teaching patience to a young team and preaching the virtue of OBA for a club that is going to have to manufacture most of their runs, everyone in the game knows that approach depends on understanding the umpire’s zone. Calling balls as strikes isn’t in and of itself crippling, but not doing it consistently sure as hell is.

Don’t get me wrong, good teams overcome that. The Pirates as we all know currently are not in that category.

I know you think I’m probably gearing up to hammer the umps more or preach about the robo umps, but I’m actually heading to a different place here.

The Pirates need to do a better job of recognizing the issue in a given game before the 6th inning. 5 innings of watching Davies get 3-6 inches off the black seems like a bit longer than it should take to recognize the zone isn’t going to play to your advantage.

Why didn’t Keller get the same advantage? Well, simply put, when you spray the ball all over the place and are visibly frustrated, hell your catcher is visibly and maybe even audibly frustrated. You aren’t going to get that ball just off the edge on a 3-2 count.

Davies starts 8 inches off and backs it in inch by inch until he starts getting the calls. That’s control, that’s influencing an ump. It wasn’t fair, it wasn’t good, but it also wasn’t something the Pirates should feel hard done by over. They have to change their approach to meet the demand of the day, and for that matter so do their pitchers. And I’m being kind by pluralizing pitcher, because only one really couldn’t adjust.

3. Colin Moran Has Matured

Look, we have no idea what role if any Colin Moran will have on this team in the future. He could be traded, or extended. We just don’t know. One thing we do know however, Colin isn’t taking bad at bats. In fact he’s taking a professional approach in every situation and every moment in the game. We just talked about the umpires and regardless of how bad they were, Colin adjusted. He knew and recognized that the outside pitch was getting called and rather than take a ball for a strike he just added that to his coverage zone ultimately leading to his first homerun of the season, an opposite field 2 run jack that made the game interesting.

That’s maturity. If you thought he was a terrible baseball player I can’t argue, he wasn’t great. But I invite you to have some virtual cataract surgery and take a look at what Colin does this season with fresh baseball eyes. I honestly don’t think he is the player many of us have decided he was.

If anything, I wonder how much faster this would have showed itself if the Pirates were able to give him a bigger role, not that I blame the Pirates, at third base he was an albatross.

4. Early Hayes Injury

It shows how fragile things are at times. All the excitement surrounding this club tends to start with Hayes and to suffer a weird and seemingly benign injury in game 2 really hurts. In game two of the series when Hayes went down you could actually see the air come out of the balloon for the club.

Sure they stayed in it but the at bats weren’t nearly as structured, and the team looked like a switch was flipped to playing out the game. As many of us were watching and waiting for news on the star’s status it was easy to almost read the same questions and concerns on the faces of those in the dugout.

No baseball players will tell you they think their team is anything less than a World Series contender, at least not in public until they’ve been eliminated, but a loss like Ke’ is something that can truly change the dynamic of the entire ball club.

It was good to see them come back out for game 3 ready to fight. They fell short but didn’t quit all game long and that gives me hope for a few things. First, it speaks highly of the coaching, because they didn’t just come back and try they jumped right back to the formula that worked for them on Thursday. Taking serious, professional at bats. Even Polanco walked twice. Next, it showed that Erik Gonzalez and Phil Evans are going to do a pretty good job filling in but the drop off is clear. Defensively Evans isn’t even in the stratosphere of Hayes but offensively he can at least provide some of that OBA minus the pop. Gonzalez has the defense on lock down but the bat is still just an also ran.

Now, let’s see how long this lasts, my guess is a decent amount of time due to the Difo call up vs someone they could send right back down. Difo will now have to clear waivers to go back down and since there are other choices that wouldn’t have required that it makes me feel this is either going to be longer term for Hayes than we hope or the Pirates aren’t terribly concerned with losing him potentially. We’ll see how this plays out, but I would assume a short term plug would be a guy the Bucs could use and send back without jumping through hoops. And I’m not even touching the DFA of Bashlor because he was a fringe 40-man member at best. (Thanks to my friend @KG_55VFTG as we navigate all this roster noise together)

5. No No’s Don’t Trump Pitch Counts

Yes, I too remember Nolan Ryan throwing 140 pitches in a complete game shutout. So when José Berríos was pulled after six no-hit innings against the Milwaukee Brewers I wasn’t shocked, even though he had only thrown 84 pitches.

See, chances are he had already pushed slightly past his agreed upon limit at that point and while I understand a move like this isn’t fun for the fans, all 30 teams would have done the exact same thing.

We all remember (well, most of us above say 25) when pitchers would go out and throw 125 pitches and come back out four days later to do it again. Times have changed and so has medicine along with training.

Like it or don’t. Think it’s babying players or not. This is the universally accepted best way to save arms. You could argue it isn’t working and I can’t really say you’re wrong but we also have to acknowledge that we aren’t asking arms to do what they used to be asked.

90MPH used to be a scary fastball as recently as the early 1990’s and now that usually doesn’t even get you scouted unless you happen to be 14 when you hit that on the gun. The human body was not designed to throw a baseball, at least not the way it’s done at the MLB level and it’s literally destroying elbows and shoulders.

I’ll agree with everyone that wants to complain that the fans were deprived a no hit bid, but I can’t see a way teams can preach pitch count to their staff then decide it doesn’t matter because of an arbitrary outcome that doesn’t affect the team itself. At least the last time I checked a no-hit win didn’t count for two.

Baseball is always changing, and not always for the better, but I also can’t argue with at least 30 head trainers and no doubt 30 independent surgeons and easily 30 GM’s and Coaches who think this is the best way to ensure these guys can stay on the field.

Fans used to really enjoy head to head collisions in football and slamming opposing skaters into the boards head first in Hockey too, but then medicine stepped in and revealed the damage being done. I can honestly say those decisions didn’t improve the product, but they just might save some careers if not quality of life afterward.

6. Late Breaking Bonus – Another Keller?

The Pirates acquired Kyle Keller from the LA Angels for Cash and in a resulting move DFA’d Edgar Santana. Now, I’ll remind you this doesn’t mean Santana is off the club but seeing him clear waivers seems highly unlikely. In fact you could see someone do exactly what the Pirates did and make a deal for him before he hits the process.

I’m high on Santana, but it’s very clear the Pirates aren’t. No, I don’t have any insider info here just a hunch. Santana and his skill set are exactly the type of talent this club has been moving heaven and earth to acquire. A fastball in the high 90’s and a lights out slider, even his Spring outings didn’t show a player who hadn’t recovered from his Tommy John procedure. Perhaps the Pirates were put off by his use of PED’s that lead to his suspension in 2020. This is one of those things we’ll likely never fully understand, but it could be as simple as someone asked him how he trained to recover and they didn’t like his answers prior to that news even breaking.

Bottom line, they at the very least have shown if they lose him they won’t lose any sleep.

As for Keller, beside the media’s fascination with his forkball (which he threw all of 3 times) he’s nothing special on paper. I always question when a team with almost no pitching cuts a guy but this is almost the exact path the Pirates took to get Chris Stratton and it’s safe to say he’s worked out. I also saw similar stats and skills for Duane Underwood Jr. and he too in the early going sure looks like a solid get.

At some point I suppose I should trust Ben Cherington’s eye but something tells me there is more to the story here.

Pirates Fall 4-3 to Cubs and Mistakes Play a Big Role

Long before today’s contest began in Chicago, this game was going to carry more importance than a third game of the season typically would.

Mitch Keller was scheduled to take the mound for the first time this season and after an uninspiring Spring seeing anything positive to take away from his outing would have been nice for reassuring a fan base desperate to see any sign of like from the young pitcher.

He did not provide much of that today. It’s simple to say that control was an issue but reality is being terrified to throw his pitches in the zone is, was and will be his problem.

Michael Perez at one point in the first stopped setting up outside or inside instead having Mitch’s target middle middle to force him back in the zone. It worked to a degree, forcing him to get in the zone a bit more but creating fat pitches. Well worth it if the message gets through.

News & Notes

– The bullpen remains a strong suit for the Pirates even if Duane Underwood will get saddled with the loss today,

– David Bednar in game 3 got a visual confirmation of how the club sees him as he took the mound in the bottom of the 8th with a one run deficit. Back end is absolutely in his future, maybe very back.

– Poor base running has been a theme this season and a player like Anthony Alford can Ill afford to be culprit number one. This team is going to survive on OBA, that number matters much less if you run yourself out of bases.

– Dereck Shelton has shown in the early going that he is going to leave the lineup alone largely and for continuity’s sake it’s a smart play.

Looking for Early Season Easter Eggs?

I love writing about baseball and the Pirates in general. Most of my time doing so has been without actual baseball games, so when the games actually start it’s really hard to not over analyze everything you watch.

That’s our job, picking nuggets out of extremely small samples to paint a picture. Nothing we’ve seen in two games is enough to accurately say much of anything. It would be like watching Captain America and deciding you know how the whole Marvel Universe works.

Baseball is a story and it unfolds in a series of events that over time add up. Sometimes the events while small support knowledge gained in previous seasons.

Gregory Polanco is one of those.

He’s had a rough start in his two games in 2021 and he’s taken some ugly swings. His arm looks like an issue again. Throughout Spring, Greg hammered the ball. Not wind assisted crap, I mean hammered. He wasn’t beating the shift by threading the needle, instead he was mashing it to all fields.

Seeing him play in 2021 is simply put not about hoping he develops. Too late for that, best case scenario now is to catch fire and become a trade chip. That said, the most common question I’ve received so far this season is “Why do we need to keep seeing Polanco play?”.

The best way I can answer that isn’t educated by what we’ve seen this very early season, instead it’s a series of answers.

One, the Pirates simply don’t have much power and even if Greg looks like crap all season he’ll hit 20 homeruns.

The alternative also isn’t exactly sure fire. Anthony Alford has a ton of tools and he looks great hustling out there but he thus far has stuck out almost just as much. Fowler has already been involved in a couple real brain fart moments and is getting a rep for just pounding the ball to the right side right into the shift.

The reality of 2021 is the Pirates will play some combination of those three with a sprinkling of Phil Evans for most of this season. Just because they feel by say July they have the answers they need, it won’t mean they have better solutions waiting.

Troy Stokes Jr., and Jared Oliva might very well make an appearance this season and if they perform well perhaps they could supplant one of them.

Despite some people I honestly respect continuing to beat the Travis Swaggerty in 2021 drum, I just don’t see it, in fact I’m not sure we’ll really find an answer there either when his time does come. Oneil Cruz could be an option, but think back to his Spring where he couldn’t hit a beach ball with a boat oar until he was reassigned and the pressure was off. And even that supposes he takes to the outfield and isn’t just tucked out there.

In baseball, sometimes the struggle to solve a problem winds up creating more.

Tyler Anderson is another player who has garnered instant reactions. He put together five innings of 3 run ball and probably could have gone another inning if the defense behind him showed up. People instantly said he stinks and started calling for the next man up.

Well, the next man up would probably be Wil Crowe or Cody Ponce. Cody is on the IL and Wil pitched yesterday too, certainly didn’t do anything to stake claim did he.

Reality is, if that is what every Tyler Anderson start looks like all year he’s by far their best free agent signing this season. Eating innings and keeping the team in the game is exactly what a pitcher like him is supposed to do.

Think back to last season, how many players did we all give a pass because it was only 60 games? Now after 2 we’re ready to call it on more than one?

Gregory Polanco is probably playing his last season as a Pirate, that’s a fact that he can’t escape almost no matter what he does on the field. All he can do is possibly accelerate it by hitting. Now, is there a point where the Pirates might just say “done” and toss their hands in the air during 2021? I doubt it. It’s not because I think they believe in him per se or that he’ll just figure it out, it’s because at least up until the deadline there is hope someone might want him coupled with who is behind him.

Cruz is the most likely bat to jump up and make him irrelevant. Now, how bad would he have to be to have the Pirates cut him and pay 5-6 million plus the 3 million buyout is the real question. That answer to me is worse than he’s ever played.

Essentially, the reason he keeps getting chances has more to do with the alternatives than Greg himself. There is a reason in my proposed lineup I put Polanco in the 7 hole, it’s because his performance down there becomes a bonus if he does anything, and honestly that’s a great way to look at his season in general. Anything he does is a bonus.

You are absolutely right when you say we’ve seen enough, we certainly have. So when you look at who would take his playing time one would think it would be devastatingly easy to spot someone who is a better option. I can’t, because it simply isn’t there yet.

Pirates Sunk By A Couple Of Cubs Home Runs

In his Pittsburgh Pirates debut lefty Tyler Anderson pitched pretty much as expected, not great and not terrible, as he allowed three runs in five full innings on five hits; which could have easily been more thanks to two more errors from a pair of Pirates, including Adam Frazier’s second in as many games. Anderson did strike out seven with a mix of pitches that had the Cubs batters guessing at times.

On the mound for Chicago was long time nemesis, Jake Arrieta, who benefited from a favorable strike zone in his Wrigley Field Homecoming; although his pitches did have good run and movement in spite of his decreased velocity. Through six innings of work he allowed regular soft contact, counting Kevin Newman’s bouncing base hit that accounted for the Pirates lone run on the day.

In relief of Anderson, the Pirates bullpen was not as stout as it had been on opening day, giving up a couple of insurance runs, walking two and striking out four as the Pirates fell to the Cubs by a score of 5 to 1 on Saturday Afternoon.

  • After two games Gregory Polanco has just managed on hit, even though it could potentially have been scored an error, and is 1 for 8 on the season with four strikeouts.
  • Rule 5 Pick, Luis Oviedo, acquired in a trade with the Mets, made his MLB debut; striking out one and not allowing a run in one inning of work.
  • The Pirates struck out 12 times, while waking on once, in direct contrast of the first game of the series.
  • After one at bat Ke’Bryan Hayes was removed from the game with left wrist soreness after an awkward swing and a slide back into first base.
  • Prior to the game, when the Alternate Site Squad was announced, Cole Tucker and Jared Oliva were remarkably absent. Apparently they are still back in Florida, receiving additional instructions.

After an opening day win and a loss today, the Pirates and Cubs are back at it for the rubber match in the series. Mitch Keller puts his foot on the rubber against Zach Davies at 2:20 PM EST on a glorious Easter Sunday matchup.