Masking an Issue with Strategy

The Pirates are far from a perfect club. They have quite a way to go in order to truly cut into some of the biggest issues the team possesses. Starting pitching is going to be a theme most of the year, and if you’re honest, it always is, good and bad.

This season though, the Pirates know its a problem and the way they plan to mask that issue is to lean heavily on what could be a strength this year, the pen.

It’s truly a tale of two cities. One unit, the starters, aren’t really stretched out all that much. They as a unit don’t really have the stuff that the bullpen does either. Chad Kuhl looked ready to get yanked in the first and Derek Shelton didn’t appear to have a trusting long leash. Instead he looked ready to pull the trigger even that early in order to not allow a poor start to take the chance to win off the table.

It’s a different philosophy, even from as recently as last season, where pitchers like Trevor Williams would be left to dangle for seemingly 3 innings longer than he should have, but maybe that’s not even a fair statement, because Derek Shelton never had the solid stable of arms in the pen at his disposal he does now.

You often hear Ben Cherington refer to all pitchers as arms. Regardless of where they’re deployed or are projected to be deployed, he simply calls them arms. Seeing how Shelton operated yesterday in game one bookended by days off on either side it’s clear to see why. Equal footing makes sense when the entire unit was almost put to use in one game.

Now, let’s be honest with ourselves, this philosophy isn’t going to work as we get later into the season. At some point starting pitchers are going to need to routinely get at least 4 or 5 innings knocked out or the pen won’t remain the formidable unit it looks like it could be.

They have fresh options in the minors of course and they’ll need some if not all of them, but simply put, that doesn’t mean you can burn through the current pen to get there. In other words if a member of the pen gets hurt it certainly is great they have that backing, but they’ll still have to pull back a bit on usage.

It may be fine early on in the season for the bullpen to carry the mail, but the pendulum needs to swing back the other direction before too long. Two or three rotations through we should start to see this play out, and if we don’t, that’s when this team will truly turn back into a pumpkin.

If you watched yesterday’s contest it’s clear the Cubs feel that way as well. Problem for them is simple, they don’t have one strong unit to lean on.

Listen, I’m not here to tell you the Pirates are going to crush the league by using their bullpen more and starters less, but I am saying they’re going to use it to not let games get out of hand. Simply staying in games isn’t a sexy goal, but when it comes to winning games with less methods at your disposal it just might be the best possible strategy at least early on, and for a young team that might not fully understand they’re supposed to suck, a good start sure can keep the blinders on a bit longer.

At the same time the Pirates offensive attack is targeting the opposition with a strategy of their own to take full advantage of the pitching problem that is sure to be just about league wide. Patience at the plat and a contact first approach led to 11 walks for Pirates hitters and almost constant traffic on the bases. Sure, we can talk about their inefficiency with runners in scoring position or the baserunning mistakes but if we simply focus on the at bats taken by just about everyone it’s pretty clear to see they are shaping up to be a staff killer.

Imagine coming into Pittsburgh in the middle of a 20 game in 21 day stretch and having the Pirates burn through your entire staff in a three game set by forcing relievers to throw 35-40 pitches in an inning.

That adds up. Doesn’t mean they’ll win more than they lose, but it could make them a team you don’t want to play.

It’s going to be incredibly interesting to watch this element of the team develop, and evolve as the season progresses. For right now though, it’s an advantage if they play this right.

The Pirates Take Down The Cubs On A Kuhl Day In Chicago

The Pittsburgh Pirates bats were hot in Spring Training; and it was the hope, no matter how unrealistic it was perceived, that this would continue. In my season preview I even called for them to help out Chad Kuhl in the top of the first by putting some runs on the board, which is exactly what Ke’Bryan Hayes did; although Kuhl tried his best to waste the favor, at least initially. Sure his outing probably didn’t turn out the way he would have liked, but the two runs on one hit wasn’t truly all his fault.

On the other side of the coin, Kyle Hendricks and his counterparts were even more out of control with their pitch selection. This allowed the Pirates to manufacture runs beyond the Hayes bomb, with stolen bases, hustle and a little bit of small ball. Whereas their batters couldn’t seem to make it on or even around the base paths without the Pirates help; only managing two hits the entire game.

In the end, after a four hour affair, a midst the frigid air on the Northside your Pirates outlasted the Cubs for a 5-3 victory on Opening Day 2021.

News and Notes

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes keeps the hype train rolling on a two-run homer in the Top of the 1st that traveled 410 feet with an exit velocity of 105.3 mph straight through the Wrigley Field wind.
  • Duane Underwood Jr. strikes out the side in his Pirates regular season debut, against his former team. Sam Howard matches him in the 6th and local boy David Bednar adds two more.
  • Mental and physical errors abound as Adam Frazier lets a grounder slip out of his web and Stallings rips a throw beyond Kevin Newman’s range, while Alford and Fowler looked lost on the bases in the 4th. So, instead of having a four or five run cushion, the Pirates clung to 4-2 lead.
  • The Pirates walked 11 times, and Phillip Evans got plunked. Not a great day for the Cubs pitchers; although the Pirates helped them out by going 3 for 20 with runners in scoring position and leaving 20 men on base.
  • He can hit, David; and he can walk too. Adam Frazier goes 2 for 3 with 2 RBI and 2 BB. Cue the Trade Rumors.

After an off day on Friday, the Pirates and Cubs will be back at it on Saturday afternoon at 2:20 PM EST, as Tyler Anderson takes the mound to face off against Jake Arrieta in his homecoming.

Opening Day in Wrigley

Long before the Pirates and Cubs take the field this afternoon at 2:20 many of us legitimately wondered if we’d get here.

Fresh off the suspension of the 2020 Spring Training and the abbreviated 2020 baseball schedule and still living with COVID-19 as it makes its way around the country even while a vaccine scrambles to make an impact on the populous, having any semblance of a quasi normal 2021 baseball season seemed like a long shot.

Here we are though, Chad Kuhl and Kyle Hendricks will square off on the hallowed grounds of one of America’s oldest ballparks.

Every aspect of baseball took a punch in the mouth last year. Development, fan interaction, regular and routine baseball activity, even participation of players was virtually destroyed in the name of keeping everyone as safe as possible.

Kids who had no business on an MLB mound were forced into service. Players in general who had no business on an MLB mound somehow found themselves pitching in the 7th with a one run lead to protect.

19 year old first rounders were tossed in the line of fire with nothing more than what they knew in College.

Managers had to learn how to juggle extra bats and arms. GMs had to figure out how to patch holes with sometimes less than 24 hour notice.

Cold streaks were now bad seasons. One bad start now meant an ERA in the 5’s no matter what else you accomplished.

MiLB players went without pay largely and many were left on an island to figure out for themselves how to stay in baseball shape. Baseball towns all over the country were absent the sounds and sights of the game that for many defined them.

Some lost family, friends. Wives and girlfriends, sons and daughters, parents other loved ones had to read reports of COVID spreading through MLB and wonder if their person would be ok.

Was this worth it? What are we doing? Does this even matter?

All in the past now, but not gone. For oh so many reasons 2020 was a year that most of us would love to erase, and no, I’m not talking something as tangible as statistics.

The game survived, as did all the other leagues in the country. Scarred, bruised and battle tested MLB enters a season that will be bookended by a National disaster and a potential Labor disaster.

I’m going to enjoy this baseball season for a ton of reasons, and as an American I’ll enjoy it for a few more, but I can’t help but feel after what we and the game have been through, we don’t need to see a self inflicted wound this December.

If the players and league can’t see that reality, they truly better not return a still broken product. Fix it or push it off, but don’t destroy a second year of development for hundreds of prospects and intentionally take something away from a nation that has already given and had taken enough.

Baseball is back, and it needs to stay that way.

A 2021 Pirates Prediction Piece, With A Little Look Back

2020 is a year, and a baseball season, that many Pirates Fans would probably like to forget; and actually some players like Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Gregory Polanco might not mind if it were erased from memory as well. After waiting almost four long months for Opening Day to arrive, fans were treated to a 5-4 late inning loss against a division rival, the St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates, didn’t look great, but they did look horrible either. It seemed almost possible that this 60 game truncated year, might not go as poorly as some may have envisioned.

Flash forward a little over two weeks, with a seven game skid mixed in and no back to back wins, to when Pittsburgh was 3-13. At this point it was pretty clear the season might be a total loss; and it pretty much outside a spectacular September by Ke’Bryan Hayes, as the Pirates floundered to a league worst-hey another bright spot thanks to securing the #1 Overall Pick in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft-19 wins and 41 loses. The hurting and pain was over, at least for the time being.

As Ben Cherington and the Pittsburgh Pirates entered the off-season it was apparent that this was going to be a time for changed; and change their team did. Gone was the post McCutchen Face of The Franchise, Josh Bell, so long to the gritty pitcher Joe Musgrove and farewell to the once hopeful, but often injured, top prospect Jameson Taillon. Trevor Williams and Chris Archer, along with a few others, were sent packing too. In the blink of an eye the team got younger, and a lot less experienced, which for the most part has continued to be a running theme through Spring Training; as side from the additions of Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson and Steven Wright.

And with that we are pretty much caught up to present day; one sleep away from the Pittsburgh Pirates Opening Day for the 2021 Season at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, when Chad Kuhl will put his foot on the rubber to ring in the year-hopefully with an early lead provided to him off the Pirates hot bats.

So-getting down to brass tacks-what do we as Pirates Fans have to look forward to, what are some reasonable expectations, who could fail, who could flourish, and ultimately what will their final record be?

Well, first off, even though it may seem as trying to soften the blow, 2021 is not a year where the final record will mean much to the Pittsburgh Pirates; and it is also really hard to nail down due to the possible trades that could take place during the season, with Chad Kuhl, Adam Frazier, Colin Moran, Steven Brault, when healthy, and Gregory Polanco, if he performs, being possible pieces used by Ben Cherington to acquire additional prospects for the system. One year signees in the forms of Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson, Brian Goodwin and the recently return Todd Frazier could also fit this bill. Now I know that I have gone on record a couple of times saying that the drop off from some of players on the active roster to those at the Alternate Site/AAA is not as size-able as it has been in previous years and there is a decent amount of depth a most positions, but if more than a couple of these happen it will obviously have some effect on the overall record.

However, once again I will emphasize that this is not something that should be focused on. Instead the focus needs to be on the individual performances of players, such as Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman, Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes; the potential young core of the current rebuild. These players, along with the performances of probable trade pieces should keep Pirates Fans busy enough to maintain interest beyond the first extended losing streak; although it is to be expected that not every player will experience success, while others could easily exceed their pre-season projections.

For reference it is fairly quick and easy to reference Dan Szymborski’s ZIP Projections on Fangraphs. Are they baseball gospel? No, but they are always a decent measuring stick; and you may have to do a little leg work because of trades and acquisitions, which I actually take enjoyment in.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=27&lg=all&players=0

A couple of players that fit into the first category of who could fail, or more politely put disappoint, would have to be Mitch Keller and Anthony Alford. By mentioning their names it doesn’t mean that they will necessarily have bad seasons; it’s just that they might not live up to current or previous expectations.

Prior to Spring Training Keller was heralded by some as the de facto ace and presumptive opening day starter. However, after some legitimate struggles during his first few starts there were some clear concerns about Keller that weren’t totally set aside by; although he didn’t allow a run across three innings of work, mostly due to the four walks and only two strikeouts, which has started to become sort of a pattern.

For Anthony Alford the centerfield position was his to lose; but after a poor showing from Brian Goodwin and a late appearance from Dustin Fowler, he was the most likely choice. However, we can’t ignore that this a player with only 51 Major League games under his belt, with a career .169 AVG and 3 home runs. Do I hope that he will succeed? Absolutely. Am I counting on it? Absolutely not.

On the other end of the spectrum there are those who could fit in the later classification of flourishing, and possible standing out, including Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Colin Moran; three of the four whom I have written about over the last couple of days. The lone player that was left out, Reynolds, was actually one of the biggest victims of the shortened season. After hitting at every level, including his first year with the Pirates, he managed to only bat .189 with 7 homers, but did improve significantly in his defensive prowess. When it comes to 2020, some fans have chosen to ignore many of the outcomes; and at least as it pertains to Reynolds I think they might just be right.

Of course as we look toward the start of a new year, I noticed that there was a third grouping that I failed to mention, which is those that might just fall straight in line, or pretty darn close, with their projections. For me Ke’Bryan Hayes, Adam Frazier and Jacob Stallings almost immediately come to mind.

Now I understand that Young Hayes earned a 1.9 WAR in only 24 games, which would extrapolate itself out to approximately 12.8 WAR over 162 games, but in doing that we might be getting ahead of ourselves; like way ahead of ourselves. Even after a stellar Spring Training expectations must be tempered for the key to future, not so much that he falls below an average everyday player, but maybe a little bit shy of the clear league MVP.

As far as Adam Frazier is concerned, many first wonder why he is still here. He is most definitely a possible trade chip, but he is also a consistent presence in the lineup; having been a Gold Glove Finalist the past two years and even in a down year during the 2020 season, his contributions were still a net positive at .7 WAR and .6 fWAR respectively.

Then there is Jacob Stallings, the prototypical defensive catcher. Any offense he provides you is a bonus, and until defensive metrics no longer count for anything, much to the dismay of fans that believe he is overrated because those statistics are worthless, he is one of the top 10 rated players at his position.

All in all there will be a lot of aspects of the game to watch, along with individual players and performances. And a few things I didn’t get a chance to touch on like coaching, player development and the Minor League Season-which I will hopefully be in Altoona to enjoy on May 4th.

Like I said before I am not really concerned about record, but if you want my prediction-because all the cool kids are doing it-I am going say the Pittsburgh Pirates are in for a 63-99 last place finish in the NL Central.

Gary’s 2021 Pirates Season Preview

It’s hard to say you cover a team without at some point making some predictions, and anyone who listens to my podcast has experienced first hand that I can be wrong. Hell my first piece for SI way back in 2019 was about trading Adam Frazier. Umm, yeah, might have been off a bit there.

That said, I think I’ve got a pretty good handle on what this team is up to this season and I’ll break this down into bite sized segments so you all can easily go back and hammer me for my mistakes later.

I’m going to get into predicting who should or could be traded but I just can’t let it dictate every thought.

Pitching

I’m putting pitching as one big blob for one simple reason, I think that’s how this might look at least early on. The Pirates have talked about having 6 starters and the assumption is they’ll bring 14 pitchers North.

They’ll name starters and they’ll pitch in some sort of a rotation of course but until we truly understand how they’ll utilize the arms I have no choice but to assume some guys will bounce between a back end of a piggy back and straight bullpen work.

So let’s do it like this, I’ll start with guys I think will at least be considered starters and not cross over to the pen.

Tyler Anderson (SP) – The only lefty in the mix, Anderson has had mixed results this Spring but as the pre-season wound down he started to round into form. It’s hard to say what to expect from Anderson, he should probably land in the low 4.00’s for ERA and if they don’t mind that creeping up a bit could average 5-6 innings easy. His delivery is effortless and he’s eaten innings in his time, but chill with the expectations beyond that.

Chad Kuhl (SP) – Chad probably has the best stuff out of all the starters, his issue has been knowing where it’s going. He is past his recovery from Tommy John but a 60 game season didn’t do favors for him as far as trusting the recovery and pushing his limits. That will come in 2021.

Mitch Keller (SP) – Wild. Both Mitch himself and the expectations. Mitch is exactly why you don’t look at the list of prospects and assume their ETA also predicts their Expected Impact Date. It takes time to turn a stellar AAA pitcher into a good and ultimately great MLB pitcher. I’m not panicked by his Spring, but I will say depending on the patience of the teams he faces early (and the Cubs aren’t a patient club at the plate) he could look great or awful. Give him time, be patient and hope the club is as well. Yoyo treatment will only make this take longer if not fully destroy him. If you don’t want another Glasnow, allow the time to grow and learn he needs, and realize it has to be done at this level now.

JT Brubaker (SP) – Solid, steady, mature. Brubaker is someone I see setting the pace early and finishing through the tape with a respectable season. He’ll grow into the innings and learn how to let his stuff hunt a strikeout when he needs it. He has good stuff and he controls it well, sometimes it just takes some time to understand there are moments when you need that strikeout.

Wil Crowe (SP) – Wil performed well this Spring, arguably better than anyone else on this list, but he makes it simply by being on the 40-man already. Chase De Jong might have been the best Starter the Pirates tossed out there but the 40-man is a tight place now. Wil has everything you’d want in a starter minus experience, but he has the pedigree and if he’s nothing more than a 4 or 5 starter it’s a win.

Now, did you expect Trevor Cahill to make an appearance there? He probably could, I mean it’s going to be a different season and the plan to me looks more like they want to see almost everyone start the season in an non-traditional role. I do think if someone get’s stretched out and are performing well they’ll be allowed to start to look more typical but as aggressively as I see pitch counts being handled in 2021 throughout the league it might not be something that ever truly looks like a staff of starters/relievers/back end guys we’re used to.

So let’s go on to wave two, these are the guys who probably won’t start games but could easily be brought in for the 4th inning to “continue the start” if you will.

Trevor Cahill (RP) – I put him here because when everyone is healthy I think this is where he fits best. Cahill is never going to make your eyes pop out with his stuff but there is something to be said about being around for 14 years. He eats innings, and does it well.

Luis Oviedo (RP) – Yeah, I don’t know much here. He looked like he had quality stuff in his limited mound time this Spring but the bottom line is he is a Rule 5 pick and he has to make it and stick in order to, well, stick. I think this might be a perfect place to try to use him. Should be fairly low stress most nights and the club won’t have to commit to what role they see him filling as his career continues.

Duane Underwood Jr. (RP) – Newly acquired from the Chicago Cubs Underwood could fit anywhere the Pirates want him to. Now it makes most sense that he’d use his ability to go multiple innings by entering games in the 5th or so and bridging to the back end.

Chris Stratton (RP) – He has started in this league, ok, not very successfully, but he’s done it. The club has even toyed with the idea of stretching him out and returning him to that role in the past, but in a year of amorphous roles he slots in right here for me. Perfect guy for this type of role.

Sam Howard (RP) – Every bullpen needs a lefty and the Pirates have two, unfortunately only one could make it even when the Bucs decided to send 14 North. Shreve loses out because he would have required a 40-man spot and Howard already had one. Both performed well and if they didn’t have Oviedo to protect, both might have been here. Either one would only be an inning or two type guy, but that still qualifies for what we’re looking at here.

So those would be the middle relief/piggyback/long man, look, you put whatever label on it you like, but this role will be a part of this team at least in the early going. So let’s move on to the more traditional back end guys.

Michael Feliz (RP) – Yes, that Michael Feliz! The Pirates liked what he did last offseason and he was one of the very first people they retained this off season. We’ve seen Michael go more than an inning in the past, but not often, so I think we’ll see a more traditional 6th or later role for him. He does look like he has more of a handle on his control and the velocity is up a bit too.

Kyle Crick (RP) – If you read or listen to anything I put out you know how skeptical I am of Crick, but he did what I said needed to happen, got his velocity back. It’s the key to making him effective and to his credit, he’s recaptured it. That said, the Pirates should be careful to not be tempted into making him a closer from the jump.

Richard Rodriguez (RP) – I still feel he doesn’t have the stuff to be a traditional closer, but its very hard to argue his results. He misses bats and get’s outs, arguably better than any Pirates pitcher as far as track record goes. Hard to see him not start as the ‘closer’.

David Bednar (RP) – He’s been in a word impressive. His stuff looks untouchable. He throws a slider that starts at your ear and winds up 4 inches off the plate, and more importantly, he has shown in his Spring outings he has the control to fine tune that. There were other ways to go for the Pirates but Bednar made it impossible to send him down while talking about sending the best to Pittsburgh.

The Outfield

We’re going to stick to the Starters here and the first person on our list made the decision fairly easy.

Anthony Alford (CF) – He’s built like a linebacker and plays baseball with the same energy. Nobody has ever questioned his defensive ability but the bat was a question mark. He’s answered the bell at the plate too, showing power and speed to make contact work for him. A new approach has really improved his consistency.

Bryan Reynolds (LF) – The biggest fear was that he was not the player we saw in 2019 but 2020 was a false image for many players and Bryan has hit at every level, in every season of his entire career up until that abomination of a season last year. He’s already shown this Spring his approach looks strong and he’s back to the level that almost netted him Rookie of the Year just a short time ago. Worry about this team, don’t worry about Bryan.

Gregory Polanco (RF) – This isn’t going to be filled with flowery what ifs, Greg has the tools to do some incredible things, but he’s had those tools his entire career and rarely have they translated to stats. That said, it’s foolish to dismiss him as unimportant, even last season as bad as he was he produced runs and that’s what he’ll be expected to deliver again.

The Infield

Colin Moran (1B) – Some would say he has big shoes to fill, others might say it’s already clear the Pirates have upgraded. The fact is, we HOPE he is an upgrade at first and we HOPE with more at bats he’ll have comparable production. I say that while firmly being in the camp that Moran will be an upgrade, but it’s really hard to say with authority that’s the case.

Adam Frazier (2B) – Nobody has called for Frazier to be traded because he stunk, it was always about what is coming behind him that made Adam expendable, but the fact is, nobody pushed him out of the way yet, and the Pirates haven’t found the right deal even if they did. Enjoy him while he’s here, he’s a gold glove finalist and when he’s right, his bat can be an important fuel for the lineup.

Kevin Newman (SS) – He hit this Spring like Pete Rose times two, obviously that’s not sustainable but Kevin did exactly what you’d hope a number one pick would do, he grabbed a position he was told he was competing for by the horns and didn’t let go. If you truly believe the competition was open, you have to believe he straight up won the competition.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B) – Make no mistake, if Hayes slipped up in any way he’d have opened the door for the Pirates to contemplate manipulating his service time. Yeah I know, if they did that you’d never watch again, or they’d lose your trust. I get it, just saying it had to be a discussion as they could get a full extra year by just holding him back for a short time. Instead he looked every bit as good as his cup of coffee in 2020. He’s smart, gifted and on top of that has an infectious attitude and swagger. Part of sticking in this league is taking thoughts like that off the table, and he sure did that.

The Catchers

Jacob Stallings – Steady defender who calls a game like few can. Nothing to see here. Having a left handed platoon partner might make his average rise in 2021 as he rakes against Lefties.

Michael Perez – Left handed, solid defender, there won’t be a huge drop off when he fills in for Jake, but the bat hasn’t been special. He has some sneaky power and could abuse the Clemente Wall if he discovers his stroke.

The Bench

Michael Perez (C) – I’m not sure Perez was better than Wolters. I can’t say Wolters was better than Perez either. Both are serviceable defenders and the bats are very similar, maybe Perez has an edge in power. End of the day, Perez was on the 40, Wolters wasn’t and I’d lay money Tony didn’t have an out clause but requested his release.

Phillip Evans (Utility, IF, OF) – Evans didn’t have to make this team, but he put together a solid Spring and ultimately forced the Pirates hand. His versatility trumped Todd Frazier’s experience and power threat.

Erik Gonzalez (Utility, IF, OF) – Gonzalez performed well this Spring so saying Newman beat him handily for the starting SS gig really says more about how Kevin performed than Erik. At the very least he clearly beat out Cole Tucker and this is a team proving this Spring veterans and NRIs are guaranteed nothing. Erik is a nice glove to have on your bench.

Dustin Fowler (OF, 1B?) – Dustin hasn’t done anything to win or lose this position, but Brian Goodwin made the decision easy. I put in the 1B with a question mark because the Pirates decided to try him out there this Spring in practice and while I don’t think they’ll need him to do so, versatility is a theme here.

The Lineup

2B Frazier
LF Reynolds
3B Hayes
1B Moran
SS Newman
RF Polanco
CF Alford
C Stallings

Now, that’s my proposed lineup not what I think they’ll do. If I had to guess, the Opening Day lineup will look more like this.

2B Frazier
3B Hayes
LF Reynolds
1B Moran
SS Newman
RF Polanco
CF Alford
C Stallings

I could see the lineup bouncing around a bit. Could be a weird platoon for the lead off spot between Frazier and Newman. Hayes and Reynolds could swap. My desire to push Polanco down in the order isn’t just based on talent, it’s about trying to not have two pure lefty’s stacked. My lineup is built to prepare for other teams to handle pitching the way the Pirates will, and a diverse lineup will help.

Another twist I think you can expect to see is the pitcher in the 8 hole with either Anthony Alford or another player like him in the 9 hole. The Pirates used that set up a couple times in the late going this Spring.

The Record

72-90

I think the Bucs will hang in more games than they’ll be blown out. Last season this club lost more 1-run games than any other club but it sure didn’t feel like that when the other losses that sandwiched them were 8-0 beat downs.

During my podcast on Saturday one of my guests Mitchell Nagy said something that really stuck with me. He said he doesn’t see the 19-41 record of 2020 in any 60 game stretch this season, and man, I agree. Brilliant way to look at it I think.

There are of course factors I can’t see, who gets traded? Who gets hurt? Who underperforms? But as a whole, the club is constructed with more depth than they’ve had, even during the playoff years.

I’m not going to say much more here, it’s a guess. An educated guess, but a guess nonetheless. Anyone offering you a prediction of the record is doing the same. Because nobody knows the answers to those few very important questions in the last paragraph and this would be hard enough if they didn’t exist.

I expect somewhere in the 35-37 win range by the All Star Break because I expect the pitching staff to be better as the season progresses.

Help in the Minors

Let’s take this in this fashion, pitchers both starting & relief, outfield, infield, catcher. These are all players I feel will be here either on merit or necessity.

Starting Options – Cody Ponce (IL), Miguel Yajure, Chase De Jong and maybe Steven Wright, Steven Brault (IL)

Relief Options – Edgar Santana, Chason Shreve, Nick Mears, Geoff Hartlieb and maybe Shea Spitzbarth

Infield Options – Well, if it’s a long term need like a trade of Frazier or Gonzalez breaks his hand, Wilmer Difo, if it’s short term I could see Cole Tucker and his options in his back pocket.

Outfield Options – Different position, same type of situation. Long term need is probably Brian Goodwin, short term Jared Oliva and again his pocket full of options probably get’s the call.

Catcher – Last year we immediately saw the supposed AAA depth become the everyday backup before the season even started. This year they’ll have Joe Hudson with a hint of Susak, one will wind up on the taxi squad the other will be there if needed. Depth at that position isn’t something we should take for granted.

Prospect Watch

The most likely prospects to make their presence felt in 2020 happen to be a fairly short list.

Oneil Cruz, Rodolfo Castro, Jared Oliva, Roansy Contreras, Nick Mears, Shea Spitzbarth.

Sure there could be more, but these are the players I feel could make it and potentially be part of the group that helps usher in winning baseball in Pittsburgh again.

Trade Watch

At some point the team needs to switch from acquiring prospects to developing what they have. If you look at the current 40 man and the gymnastics it caused us mentally this Spring you can see the list is at the very least congested.

Don’t get me wrong, that’s a great thing, not a problem, but it also doesn’t account for the very real need to add some younger players to the list by the end of the season to protect him from Rule 5.

Bringing in even more isn’t off the table but they’d have to be very young.

Adam Frazier – is of course the most obvious candidate but as our very own Craig Toth likes to say, nobody has stepped up and taken 2B from him. Maybe the Pirates feel the same, and he’s more valuable than the prospects he at least to this point could return.

Richard Rodriguez – Especially if he posts up in the closer role again. People overpay for closers every deadline and the return for RichRod might be too much to pass.

Chris Stratton – He can spin the ball like nobody else in the league and presuming he didn’t use the stickum that the league has put under scrutiny his value will only increase.

Michael Feliz – He’s likely not part of the future here one way or another, so if the Bucs can get anything of value in return, they absolutely should.

Chad Kuhl – He has the stuff to be a top end starter or back end reliever, by the deadline he could be one of the hottest names on the market. That doesn’t mean his stuff alone will get him to either of those designations, but it’s in there.

Gregory Polanco – The Pirates should be willing to eat up to 3 million in his salary this season at the deadline to move his contract, because that’s exactly what it will cost them to get out of his deal after the season. If Greg shows up at all, they should be able to find a deal.

Storylines to Follow

The Hitting Approach – Coach Eckstein has implemented a new approach at the plate and while he can’t control execution, he certainly has made sure we all know what we’re supposed to be seeing. There should be a visible attempt to hit the ball where it’s pitched and a willingness to beat the shift. Keep an eye on this as the season develops.

The Pitching Philosophy – No I don’t mean pitch to contact. I mean how the Pirates deploy their pitchers. Look for traditional roles to be turned on their heads.

Lineups & Usage – Last year in the 60 game season Dereck Shelton used what seemed like 60 different lineups. This Spring he’s been more consistent and that was with a glut of players at his disposal. It will be interesting to see if 2020 was literally just an experiment and the real Shelton will show himself in 2021.

Fowler & Alford – Does one of them prove themselves as a starting OF option going forward or are we officially on Swaggerty watch? Don’t get me wrong, we’ll still be looking for Travis to make it and play at some point but maybe he’ll have to show he is ready rather than be anointed if either of these players catch on.

Starters That Stick – The obvious candidates are Keller and Brubaker and by stick I simply mean, counted on to be part of the rotation for the future. Yajure and Crowe have a solid chance as well but it really depends on when they start to contribute.

Defense – Nothing makes a team look like a train wreck faster than playing poor defense. This won’t be near the issue it has been in recent campaigns. This team can pick it.

The All Stars

I don’t see the Pirates having a ton of All Stars, but their representative won’t be there just because the Pirates have to have one. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Richard Rodriguez probably have the best chance. I’d give you Kevin Newman but the names he’d have to jump over in the NL at SS makes me feel it’s a real longshot.

Final Thoughts

Derek Shelton didn’t win many fans over last season as we watched him make questionable decisions repeatedly in 2020. Many of those poor or at least difficult to understand moves were assumed to be about evaluation or even flat lack of options, but some things I think you’ll see stick.

He’s a modern baseball coach and that comes with some different philosophies that just aren’t going to jive with folks who grew up watching baseball in the 70’s and 80’s. First up, handling a pitching staff has changed all across the league but this could be even more visibly different as traditional roles like starter and closer aren’t as rigidly stuck to.

All that being said, it will be hard to say what we see in 2021 is a true reflection of what Shelton wants to do or just a lingering effect of the COVID shortened season coupled with the thinnest part of the club for elite talent still being starting pitching. For instance it may become fairly normal to see starters going 4 or 5 innings, and I’m not sure we’ll ever get to the point where we can say it’s team philosophy or an attempt to keep innings under a target number. Nobody in baseball anywhere is going to tell us some magic number to look for, but keep your eyes open because all teams will handle this differently.

I also think we can look for more consistent lineups this season, that’s not to say the same lineup will get trotted out five games in a row but without expanded rosters I think it will have much less flex. A backup on this club, well, any backup beside catcher, will probably start 3-4 games a week and versatility will be the reason. For instance if he wants to see Erik Gonzalez play 5 games a week you could see him bounce all over the diamond to make it happen. The balance needs to remain though and he must not get carried away with it to the point the reserves are playing just as much as the starters.

The coaching staff as a whole looks and sounds more confident and the young core should be a very coachable group. Last season the players were told that GM Ben Cherington looked around and saw several players who would be here when the team was competing for division titles again, this season the players look around and know the field of those still here since hearing that statement has been trimmed. In other words, it’s getting real, and competition has never been stiffer for many of these guys that have worn black and gold their entire careers.

All in all, this is the last season I expect to enter completely expecting a losing season for a while. That’s not to say the window opens next year or that they will absolutely best the .500 mark in 2022, but it is to say we start seeing the fruit from what this management team has been building.

For this year, things that players like Reynolds, Newman, Keller, Brubaker, Hayes, and even Alford do mean more than anything Cahill throws or Polanco hits. This year is all about solidifying and hopefully retaining some pieces of this core.

Welcome back baseball, welcome back for real.

Pulling For Polanco

Ever since he made his Major League Debut for Pittsburgh back on June 10, 2014, at only 22 years old, Gregory Polanco has been one of the more polarizing figures on the Pirates. This mixed perception of Polanco is somewhat due to expectations versus performance, but also partially because of a famous meme of him misplaying a crucial fly ball and injuring himself on a slide at the end of 2018.

Prior to his time at PNC Park the young outfielder was listed as high as #2 in the system and #13 in all of MLB in 2013, so it is no wonder the outlook for his future was off the charts; and after shaking off some some struggles of his youth, he broke through in 2016 with 22 homers and a .258 AVG. Sure there was obviously still room for improvement, but the needle finally looked like it was pointed in the right direction. That along with the 5 year/$35 million contract, including 2 option years that would take the deal to 7 years for $58 million, he signed prior to the season, made many optimistic for his future with the Pirates; so much so that one Josh Bell made a full transition from right field to first base.

Then came what I call the the year of the left hamstring, which resulted in three separate stints on the 10-Day IL, a total of 108 games on the field, 11 homers and a .251 AVG. It was at this point rumblings concerning the need to trade Polanco, and cut their losses, began to circulate within the Pirates Fanbase. However, most of these were quickly quieted as El Coffee put together a career year for homers (23) and SLG (.499), only to have it snuffed out by an errant slide into second base on September 7, 2018; ending his season.

Following what seemed to be a more long term it was a bit of a surprise when Polanco reported to his first rehab assignment on April 7th of the following year, eventually returning to Major League action a couple of weeks later on April 22nd against the Diamondbacks; going 2 for 4 on the day. Even though he would play until June 16th, before being put on the IL and ultimately shut down for the season after a rehab assignment to Indianapolis, he never really seemed like himself and experienced difficulties with throwing from right field. All things considered he actually didn’t perform too poorly at the plate, slashing .242/.301/.425 with 6 home runs and 15 extra base hits.

When he came back for Spring Training in 2020, it looked he might be back on track batting .381 with a homer and 3 doubles; although as we know now it didn’t turn out out that way for Polanco. After the shutdown, he was delayed in returning due a coronavirus diagnosis; missing the opening series of the season and looking lost at lost at the plate most of the time, yet when he did connect-which wasn’t very often-it was pretty impressive. On the season he batted .153, hit 7 homers and struck out a ridiculous 37.4% of the time.

So, what does 2021 hold for Gregory Polanco, and more importantly what does it mean for the Pittsburgh Pirates? Well, the simple answer is trade bait, but even at that point it may be as a rental because his $12.5 million contract with a $3 million buyout might be too much of a risk; not that many Pirates Fans are worried about that and just want him gone; get anything you can and move on. But too me it goes beyond that because Polanco actually has another buyout in 2023 that is only $1 million, which might be a little more attractive to teams if he is able to put together more than just one streaky June or July.

Another possibility would be the Pirates picking up the option if he plays well and can’t be traded; a scenario that was posed on a recent episode of Gary Morgan’s Fan Forum on DK Sports Radio. This is a tough one to think about because many assume that good play equals an obvious trade, nevertheless it still needs to be considered.

In the end, these scenarios only become relevant if Polanco plays well, as any injury or poor performance more than likely results in him becoming a free agent after this season; and if that’s the case you would think every Pirates Fan would want Polanco to do well, but I bet you any money there are some out there who don’t.

What Does 2021 Have in Store for Michael Feliz?

The last two articles I’ve written have been about a pair of pickups that the Pirates gave up virtually nothing for. Today’s going to be a little bit different, as I’ll be previewing a pitcher that the Pirates had to give up a player currently under a $36 million-a-year contract to get. Michael Feliz is the guy I’ll be talking about today, and what his 2021 season may look like. 

It’s hard to say if the Pirates won the Gerrit Cole trade or not, and while Joe Musgrove brought in some prospects and Colin Moran is the Pirates’ starting first baseman four years later, the other half of the deal, Jason Martin and Michael Feliz, have yet to show much. Martin is now in the Texas Rangers organization, but Feliz is still with Pittsburgh, despite being injured most of last season. This could be his last shot to show the Pirates what they might have in him before he gets passed over. Does he have the stuff to do it?

When the Pirates acquired Michael Feliz, he did not have great stats on paper in the majors, with a 4.43 ERA in 65 innings in 2016 and a 5.63 ERA in 48 innings in 2017. When you look behind that, you can see he has sub-four FIPs in both of those years (3.24 and 3.78). As far as stuff went, Feliz sat around 96 MPH with the fastball and low to mid 80s with both the slider and the changeup. His K/9 rate was above 13 in both years prior to the Pirates trading for him, so there was definitely some pretty good stuff there, it just needed to be harnessed. 

Primarily working in the seventh and eighth innings in 2018, Feliz struggled pretty hard, with a 5.66 ERA overall and a really high 6.05 ERA in the eighth inning. Once again, his FIP was about average, this time at 4.13. For a bullpen that featured some pretty good arms set to return for the 2019 campaign, there were questions surrounding the cloudy future of Michael Feliz, and if he actually had a future as a late-inning reliever.

2019 started just about the same for Feliz, as he was actually optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis to begin the season. Once he got a late April callup, he did not pitch well at all. In 10 ⅓ May innings, Feliz gave up 11 runs. All of those runs came in four out of eleven appearances, including a botched opener attempt, where he gave up five runs in just ⅓ of an inning. This earned him a brief two week Triple-A stint, and then he was right back up when Nick Kingham was designated for assignment. 

The minor leagues may have changed him, as Feliz came out and pitched really well in June (3.00 ERA), even better in July (1.38 ERA), and then had a solid final two months of the season (3.63 combined ERAs in those months). For comparison, Feliz had a 5.11 ERA pre-All star game and a 3.13 after it. Also, he may have found himself a spot in the seventh inning, as he put up a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings there. His ERA+ was at 110, which means he was 10 percent better than league average as a pitcher. Feliz was never close to average at any point in his career before, so this was definitely a boost for him. 

2020 was just a disaster for Michael Feliz, and he gave up six runs in 1 and ⅔ innings before hitting the Injured List for the remainder of the season with right forearm discomfort. 

All that Feliz can do now is look ahead to improving for 2021, and he better do it quickly, because guys like Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure, Cody Ponce, and others are coming right behind him. Now this could obviously change with poor play by other relievers or injuries, but looking at the projected makeup of the bullpen, Feliz is probably in the hottest water right now, especially since he’s given up two home runs in just about six innings this spring. His current contract also does not play to his advantage, as this is his last year before he hits the free agent market. If the Pirates are going with the “look toward the future” approach like I think they are, Michael Feliz will not have a spot in Pittsburgh much longer. 

So this begs the question: Why sign Feliz at all this past offseason? Well, there is really no answer to that, they could have non-tendered him and brought him back on a minor league deal like Clay Holmes just as easily. He’ll start in the major league bullpen, no doubt, but if this season starts off rough, then Michael Feliz is on his way out and guys like Geoff Hartlieb and company will fill that spot quickly. That would also mean another piece from a Neal Huntington deal having almost no value, but hey, what else is new?

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 3-29-21

The support for this weekly feature has been incredible. Thank you all for taking to it as it’s super fun to write and the conversation that follows seems to last all week.

We are here, one more pre-season game tomorrow and we’ll be ready to officially start the show. Most of the questions have been answered and Craig and I will both have 2021 season previews ready for Wednesday.

Let’s dig in on a busy news week.

1. Questions Answered

One of the biggest questions hanging over the heads of everyone trying to figure out the roster was do any of the other NRI veterans have opt out clauses like Todd Frazier did. As cuts have been made and reassignments have taken place the answer is becoming clear, No.

Sending Goodwin, Difo and likely Wolters to AAA means experienced depth will be there when and if the club need it. It’s possible Chason Shreve joins them. These players making this club in years past would have been an almost sure thing. It speaks to the depth and it also speaks to the very real competition the club said we’d see.

They’ve made choices that make sense for now, but also not made choices that simply feel good. It’s been about myriad aspects but one of them wasn’t worrying about paying MLB salary to MiLB players, something the previous regime would never have accepted.

2. Versatility

The Pirates value players who can handle multiple positions and as you really look at what they’re trying to put together it makes sense. Phil Evans for instance can play anywhere but Catcher and Short stop, and I bet he’d happily try if they let him. Just today the Pirates put Erik Gonzalez at first base, Erik can quite literally play anywhere but catcher. Even Dustin Fowler has worked out at first base in an effort to give him another arrow in his quiver.

The Pirates value this, well, at least they do now and we would all do well to recognize it because as frustration has started to mount about Oneil Cruz still playing SS it’s important to understand they may simply not care about where he plays if the bat does. In fact he may make it for the bat and have no regular position. This is modern baseball and for ten plus years the Pirates have not participated.

3. The Eye Turns to Development

Now that the season is just about to start, the focus needs to shift to development. Sure, much of that focus will be in the minors but the club needs to develop those who are on the MLB roster as well. Nobody who made it should rest on their laurels, these were close decisions. Time to make what was good, really good. Time to make what was below the line, hit the mark.

Individual growth will be the measuring stick by which this season is viewed and while everyone who made the club earned the opportunity, they need to keep in mind for the first time in quite some time this club has very real talent working to supplant them.

4. Adam Frazier is Still Here

No trade happened, and while all that means is he will start as a Pirate he also may have shown why Cherington valued him higher than any offer he may have received. I still believe if a good deal comes along they’ll pull the trigger but Frazier’s usefulness on the club is more important moving forward if Cole Tucker never gets where they need him to get.

Yes it’s true, Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero will someday push to take over those positions, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a need for players like him or Kevin Newman. A big no no in team building and roster construction is pretending everything will go as planned and forecasting who will be here and who needs to go to enable it likely creates talent voids more often than it makes the puzzle fit.

This isn’t a prediction that they’ll extend Frazier or something silly like that, they could of course, I’m just saying it doesn’t need to be taken to that level. That said, eliminate no possibilities and understand fully that Cole Tucker opened this window. If he was performing as a number one pick, Frazier would have no place now or in the future here in Pittsburgh.

5. Record Prediction

Just about everyone in my business will do it, Craig and I included, but it’s important to remember there are no members of the media and probably very few team employees who can honestly say they know who might be traded or who has a nagging back problem, or who will perform well or badly.

It’s a guess, an educated guess but a guess nonetheless, but will they have a .316 win percentage like last season, no, I just don’t see it. Many saw Bell and Musgrove head out of town and automatically assumed they’d stink worse, but the depth is truly not something we’ve seen here and it will have a cumulative effect. The high might not be as high as a fully peak Bell or Musgrove could provide, but the lows won’t be nearly as low.

That said, when you see my prediction on Wednesday, feel free to beat me up about it, that’s part of the game I’m in and I get it entirely. As I’ve said countless times, I’ll be right sometimes, I’ll be wrong sometimes, If I’m right enough, you’ll keep reading.

Have a good night everybody, it’s going to be a busy week here at Inside the Bucs Basement, tons of content headed your way.

Relying On The Redbeard

Many things became a lot clearer after Todd Frazier’s opt out, immediately following the news that he been informed by the team he would not be making the Pirates Open Day Roster; one of which being Pittsburgh’s apparent faith in Colin Moran to man the first base position on a more regular basis than may have been originally intended. Sure Phillip Evans is more than capable to fill in for Moran in platoon situations, scheduled off days or when the Redbeard really needs a rest, but I no longer see the somewhat pressing need to get a vet like Frazier regular at bats in order to showcase him for what would have almost certainly been a deadline deal to a contender for prospect(s). Instead look for Moran to get 500+ plate appearances for only the second time in his career, which at first glance might not be seen as ideal by some, but it starts to looks better considering his glove won’t come in to play as much and due to his new found power.

For most Pirates Fans, Colin Moran is just another piece acquired in the underwhelming Gerrit Cole Trade back in January of 2018, however, approximately five years before that Moran was the 6th Overall Pick by the Miami Marlins out of North Carolina; who tore his way through the Cape Cod League in back to seasons, all before he even turned 21. Eventually traded to the Houston Astros, he made his MLB debut in 2016, after excelling at nearly every level and ranking at #7 on their top 30 prospects list that year. The majority of his playing time came at third base, but it can be seen that he had started to see more time at first in the upper levels, so it is possible that Houston saw some concerns about him being able to stick at the hot corner. However, when he came to Pittsburgh Josh Bell had that position pretty much on lock, leaving third as his only real option.

In two years for the Pirates, Moran earned a -27 DRS and -24 OAA, good for last in each category for qualifying third baseman and in direct competition with Miguel Andujar of the Yankees for the worst defender at the position in all of MLB. At the plate was nothing if not consistent, and by that I mean consistently average as he produced a combined 98 wRC+ and batted .277 in both seasons. Then last season, thanks to the DH being allowed in the National League, Moran was able to move across the diamond and split duties with Josh Bell. At times Moran looked better at the plate than he had in previous years, especially in the beginning of the season as he slashed .333/.385/.875 with 4 homers in his first seven games. Obviously he was unable to maintain this pace, and played at a similar defensive standard to Bell at first, at least statistically speaking in 2020; putting up a -1 DRS and 0 AAA to Bell’s -1 DRS and -3 OAA, however, it was enough to see Bell as expendable for an off-season trade.

With all of this behind them, including the aforementioned trade of Bell and Frazier opt-out, Moran is the lone man standing. Sure, Evans is their to provide relief and Will Craig remains as depth in AAA, but beyond that the next challenger for the position has yet to take an at bat above High A; and has some concerns of his own to overcome.

So, for at least this season, and possibly the next the Redbeard is the Pirates first baseman. Now I don’t expect him to blow away anyone at the position, although the former 1st Round Pick might surprise some; much like he did at the beginning of last year.

Needing A Bounce Back From Newman

Before I even started writing this piece, my mind became filled with the reaction(s) Pirates Fan could have to the word need in the title; saying that I am going overboard (ship themed pun intended) or reaching with my assessment of the situation. If we are being honest, I agree with them to a degree. A better descriptor concerning the potential value of a Kevin Newman bounce back would be benefit or more accurately that the Pirates could benefit from him having a year that is closer to 2019 than 2020, and not just for the immediate impact provided by this type of season.

Prior to the 2020 season, newly hired General Manager Ben Cherington may have seen Newman as member of a core group of players that he mentioned being able build the team around. Although I am sure at this point some may be ready to throw Liover Pegeuro into the starting lineup after a 2 for 3, 2 RBI game on Thursday, but I digress.

In 2019 Newman posted a .308/.353/.446 slash like with 12 home runs, which was extremely surprising as he had only managed 15 in 402 Minor League games and over 1800 plate appearances. Obviously his defense left a lot to be desired with a -7 DRS and -8 OAA at the shortstop position, but overall earned 3.1 WAR and 2.3 fWAR respectively.

Of course during the off-season many, including myself targeting Newman as a possible regression candidate due to his ranking against the rest of MLB it pertained to exit velocity (5th percentile), hard hit % (6th percentile) and barrel % (4th percentile). On the other end of the equation he found himself near the top in K% (97th percentile) and whiff % (97th percentile), so solid production was not completely out of the production.

Unfortunately, for Newman, the batting peripherals caught up with him in the shortened season that ultimately ended prematurely thanks to a 97-mph fastball to the knee. In 44 games he sputtered to a .224 AVG with a single homer in 156 at bats. Once again his defense didn’t help him either as he put up a -4 DRS and -3 OAA as he split time between shortstop and second base. So, it was really no surprise that as Spring Training was about to begin a little over a month ago, Manager Derek Shelton announced an open competition between Newman, Erik Gonzalez and Cole Tucker, which Newman and Gonzalez must have taken as a challenge. Regrettably for Tucker, a thumb injury put him in the hole almost from the beginning; never allowing him to catch up and eventually resulting in an option to AAA on March 24th.

With only a couple of games remaining in Spring Training before the Pirates open the season at Wrigley Field against the Cubs on April 1st, Gonzalez has posted a .308 AVG and .782 OPS with one homer; all while playing solid defense along the way at multiple positions. Newman’s performance in the Grapefruit League has been near historic at the plate. In 28 at bats he has 20 hits, including 6 doubles, 5 walks and no strikeouts; good for a .714 AVG and 1.664 OPS. Yes I realize it these stats don’t technically count for anything, but I would much rather see this than the .237 AVG he put up last spring. In the field he has looked a little bit more comfortable, but did bobble a fairly routine ball for his only error of the year.

With Gonzalez set to become a free agent in 2023 and Newman to follow two years later, it is clearly more beneficial for the guy who should be around longer to play better; not that they would want Gonzalez to play poorly in case they have aspirations to move him at some point over the next two years. However, as what could be defined by some as a place holder for intended duo of Liover Pegeuro and Nick Gonzalez it would be nice to know there is a solid vet like Newman to allow for them to develop at their own pace, be a safety net for any struggles and ultimately an experienced bat coming off the bench for what will hopefully be a contender.

And although it may be a few years off, Newman may also find himself as a trade chip to replenish the system to keep the window open a little bit longer. If he slips back into his 2020, 44 game slump, Newman would be another 1st Round Draft disappointment from the Huntington Era, that could eventually set the current rebuild back further than it needs to be.