Difficult Cuts – A Sign of a New Era

If you watched a decent percentage of the Pirates Spring games or even just followed along, it’s pretty hard to weigh results next to expectation and be upset. These games of course don’t mean anything tangible but let’s just say if they only had 6 wins and five of them were against the Orioles and Tigers, those 120 loss predictions might have a leg to stand on.

Think back to 2020, ew that sounds like an awful idea actually for so many reasons. OK, let’s think specifically about the final decision on cuts for the 2020 team. The only really tough choice was Jose Osuna. That’s right, the same Jose Osuna who is now playing ball overseas. The same Jose Osuna who this season would have been just as close to making the team as Will Craig.

Last year we were twisting our brains around how the Pirates could really be giving Neverauskas yet another shot. We sold ourselves on a year of evaluation and it started to become a joke, that is until we came all the way around to the tender deadline this year.

That’s when we saw for the first time that all the evaluation talk wasn’t just blowing smoke, they were actually evaluating. They moved on from several perennial players who floated around the fringes of the roster and identified players that were more valuable for what they could bring back to the organization than what they could give as their service time wound down.

This Spring we’ve already seen 10-15 players sent to minor league camp who last season would have had no problem making the club.

The bullpen alone will face some very difficult decisions in the coming days. Sam Howard, Geoff Hartlieb, Chason Shreve, Clay Holmes, Edgar Santana and more could all not make the club. In fact Santana has already been reassigned. That’s not what we’ve seen here in Pittsburgh, this is different.

See last season Neverauskas made the club and it wasn’t just because the club wanted to take one last look at the guy, it was because looking around at what was there he legitimately had a better chance of performing well than the alternatives.

This season, the Pirates are cutting players who would have been some of the best options available just the year prior.

Overhaul improvement like this in any one area comes directly from the evaluation last season and flooding that aspect of the team with far more than the team needs at the outset. Last season the Pirates managed to cobble together a bullpen that looked ok on paper save one or two, but even that needed almost total health, obviously not attainable as a goal, so having almost a complete bullpen worth of qualified backups already in the organization is a step forward.

I focused on the bullpen here, but you can certainly look all over the field and see tough choices. The outfield leaves us with a choice between Goodwin and Fowler. One is a veteran who could help and the other is a talented and unfortunate player who arguably has more to give in the power department. One they could keep if they cut him and one they’d lose. Tough choice.

The infield we already saw the decision to let Todd Frazier walk and they still have tough decisions like Difo and Evans. Even that choice leaves Rodolfo Castro out of the mix and that kid is ready. Oneil Cruz had a rough Spring and has work to do in AAA but he too is not miles away. And how could you forget Cole Tucker who never really figured out the bat this Spring and was hindered by an injury for part of it.

Starting Pitching is the area that really lacks faith from me and even there I see this rotation improving from April to August. No, I don’t expect players to improve that drastically, but as the Pirates continue to move players I think they’ll get the higher upside talents like Wil Crowe, and Miguel Yajure into the mix which will again show progress. Before this off season began the Pirates were staring down the barrel at praying Cody Bolton jumps from AA to MLB sometime this year.

I’m not here to tell you he couldn’t do it, but I’m much more comfortable knowing he doesn’t NEED to. Sometimes depth and options do more to prevent poor development than they do to create wins. If all the depth provides is a logical and earned ramp up for a pitcher like Bolton, it’s a win for this franchise.

Let’s backtrack to a couple players I glazed over on the way here, Anthony Alford and Phil Evans. Last season they were brought in to evaluate as possible players who could help fill out the roster, and both looked like they were well on their way to proving it was a worthy opportunity. Both stricken by season ending injuries in 2020 they didn’t come into 2021 as locks in any way, but Alford took CF by the horns and Evans beat out Todd Frazier who almost everyone thought was a lock, including all the broadcasters.

This is different. If you need to see a .500 record to believe that, hey, I get it, but I think you’re robbing yourself of a chance to really see an overhaul taking place before your very eyes. Again, maybe that doesn’t matter to you unless it comes with a winning record, that’s your prerogative and I’ll not tell you how to fan, but for me I’m already looking at some of these roster decisions becoming even harder in 2022.

That’s where this is headed. Hard decisions not based on who sucks less, but instead who has the best chance to help the team. It’s time to stop viewing this management team as though they need to own the failures of the past, because they’ve spent precious little time showing they don’t have the same philosophy or skill set.

Different is the theme in 2021, Better is the leader in the clubhouse for 2022’s, and that’s the Point.

Todd Frazier Opts Out – What Happened?

So, that happened. Todd Frazier has exercised his option to void his AAA contract with the Pirates and is now a free agent.

Listen, I’m not going to go about rewriting the reporting done already by Alex Stumpf or Jason Mackey. They report, I offer opinions, that’s the ecosystem. Take a minute and read what they have to say if you like, or just trust my summary.

Todd had an opt out clause for the 25th. What that means is if he wasn’t on the 40-man roster by yesterday, he had the option to pull out and head to free agency.

The way the news trickles out it initially looked like Frazier stood on the mound with middle fingers blazing toward the dugout as he walked off to his car, but as usual when you wait a minute you tend to get the rest or the other side of the story.

Turns out the Pirates told him he wasn’t going to make the team, so, maybe not a bad guy deciding to not play on a bad team. Maybe not a guy who was disingenuous with all of us in his interviews or comments to those covering the team.

Reality is that this is the exact situation these clauses are typically baked in for veterans.

The Pirates have some other guys who could possibly fall into something like this. Problem is, Frazier was the only one reported to us. Now that could be because Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo and Tony Wolters don’t have them. That would surprise me a bit especially a player like Difo who could truly be serviceable just about anywhere as a Swiss Army Knife type player.

That said, until told otherwise I have no choice but to assume they don’t have outs. That means should the Pirates tell them they aren’t making the 26-man, they could all just head off to whatever the hell they’re doing with AAA players while they wait to play. Supposedly that would be the training site.

Point is, this isn’t all that odd of a situation. Happens all the time, in fact it just happened with Tony Watson in Philly today as well.

Now that we have that out of the way we turn out eyes to what the heck are the Pirates doing?

Frazier was set to back up Hayes and Moran at the corner spots. This would seemingly open the door for Evans to fill the same role. Evans has performed well this Spring and perhaps he has more versatility. He can play the outfield a little and can patrol second base as well. He also isn’t scheduled to be a free agent until 2026.

This makes total sense if the Pirates really think they’ve found somebody here, and in extremely limited time and opportunity, he’s certainly looked like he has figured something out with the bat. That’s hard to argue.

Of course, that’s IF Evans is why they did this. And I put it that way simply because going to AAA was never going to happen for Todd. The Pirates simply can’t have believed that was on the table.

The Pirates themselves could be shopping, as I said earlier, there were players adding to a growing list looking for employment. Maybe someone peaked their interest.

Maybe they just don’t think they need him. I find this odd for one main reason, if the goal is to bring in talent Frazier might have actually brought some home. I mean this is a club that just last year actually found a way to get something for Jarrod Dyson.

Perhaps feeling that Evans could turn into something better than what they could get for a backup infield, off the bench power threat 35 year old rental. I can buy that.

This isn’t a big deal really, despite wasting a few minutes of my podcast recording. I think the club could have benefitted from the veteran presence and if my star third baseman who I’m actively trying to woo into a lucrative extension had expressed how appreciative he was to have Mr. Frazier around I might have kept the big lug around.

Does this change anything really? Eh, maybe a little. His power might have been minimized in PNC park a bit, but he’d have contributed. Maybe he teaches one or two kids the difference between AAA and MLB.

Hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained. If I really think about it, I’m more mad that I was so blatant that he was a lock. I didn’t for one second think otherwise and that isn’t what I typically do. That’s how convinced I was though, I didn’t even consider until this happened that it was a possibility.

Make ’em look smart Phil.

Opening The Pirates Window

Ever since a changing of the guard took place in November of 2019, questions and comments surrounding the Pittsburgh Pirates potential return to contention have filled countless social media posts, bulletin board discussions, articles from beat reporters, columns from bloggers and even some of my emails; with the majority eventually trying to nail down a timeline of when the Pirates will be in the playoffs again or at the very least competing in their own division.

I can’t blame anyone for wanting responses to these nearly unanswerable questions, but I can ask them to temper their expectations and trust the process; at least for the time being. General Manager Ben Cherington has been on the job for a little over 16 months at this point in time, has participated in one draft, parts of two international signing periods and is wrapping up his first full off-season with the team after a truncated 60 game season. Have things been great? Obviously not, or Pittsburgh wouldn’t have the 1st overall pick in July’s MLB June Amateur Draft. However, we also can’t act like some parts of this build weren’t absolutely necessary, with other potentially uncomfortable decisions more than likely still to come.

The Pirates as they are currently constructed appear closer to the starting line than they are to any visible finish, but this also doesn’t mean that they can’t get there quicker with rebound years from players like Bryan Reynolds or Kevin Newman, a Gregory Polanco comeback, Mitch Keller finding his groove and Ke’Bryan Hayes continuing to play at or actually anywhere near the level he has so far. These scenarios are far from guaranteed, just like a 2024 rotation that includes Quinn Priester, Cody Bolton, Brennan Malone, Carmen Mlodzinski or insert pretty much any other pitching prospect; from the ones that have already reached the big league to those who have yet to throw their professional strike.

I have personally followed prospects, on an amateur level, since I was around 13 to 14 years old, which for those of you that know me was a long time ago; and for those that don’t it’s about about as long as Adam Frazier has been alive. Does this make me an expert? Absolutely not, but it does give me some perspective on attempted and “successful” rebuilds, as I have seen quite a few, not just the ones or perceived ones from the Pirates, in my day.

So, what will it take for Pittsburgh to have any chance of a successful one, and sometimes more importantly, when might Pirates Fans know this thing they are longing for is real or possibly just another allusion?

The first step includes something I wrote about recently, which is building a strong Minor League System; from top to bottom. The Pirates are on their way in this aspect, but are nowhere near where they need to be, and Cherington knows it. A piece that definitely goes into this as well is evaluation, which is more important to the Pirates than other ball clubs because as we know they can’t really afford to miss.

The next hurdle is developing the talent they do have, along with those they have yet to acquire. Smart and effective drafting, trades, waiver wire pick ups and free agent signings will only get a team so far. People can’t point to Neil Huntington as an example of a poor General Manager, while touting the likes of Priester, Hayes and Cruz, or even Tahnaj Thomas, as the future of the team, without at least giving him some of the credit, but I won’t put up as much of a fight if you question his organizational philosophy in developing players.

Thus far many of the prospects Cherington has acquired fall into a ETA at PNC Park of around 2023-2024, with a few ready to contribute immediately or in the near future. Does this mean the team will achieve the goal of competing, at or around this time? A lot of this depends on development, along with health as evidenced by the unforeseen circumstances surrounding Blake Cederlind and Steven Brault or Jameson Taillon before them; hence the need for depth and competition at all levels of the system.

The next rung on the proverbial ladder to success is retention of at least some of the talent that already exists at the Major League Level; and that is something Cherington has already tried, albeit unsuccessfully for now, just the other day with the offer of a contract extension to Ke’Bryan Hayes. I can almost guarantee this won’t be the last time Young Hayes, and others like him, will be approached with the opportunity to stay with the Pirates on more of a long term basis. Part of this step also includes portions of the previous ones, including development and evaluation because they have a little bit less wiggle room than others in giving out bad contracts; with an overarching theme of Bob Nutting looming in the background, but we’ll get to that very soon.

The final obstacle to obtaining, and hopefully, maintaining success is properly addressing the needs of the team. Even the most well built Major League ball clubs have needs. If this wasn’t true, you wouldn’t see the likes of the Dodgers, Padres, and White Sox acquiring players in the manner we we did this off-season. Not everything can necessarily come from within, which is where Nutting has to make another appearance. At some point Nutting must give Cherington the go ahead to pay for free agents, more expensive trade pieces and to retain at least some talent.

We can argue back and forth, until we are blue in the face, about Bob Nutting’s role in the level of success the Pirates experienced from 2013-2015 to the ultimate demise of the previous front office, the majority of the coaching staff and development department, beginning on the last day of the 2019 season. This exercise in extreme frustration, mixed with reminiscing about and rehashing the past won’t do anyone even the least bit of good. What matters now is the future, or if you want to be a total pessimist, the possibility that parts of recent history could feel slightly all too familiar.

In the end Nutting will have to spend. Maybe, or probably, not as much as Pirates Fans would like him to, but obviously payroll has to go up; and no this doesn’t just include the natural progression of arbitration and addition of players from the minors or conservative free agent signings. I am talking about actually increasing payroll, with no concrete number in mind as to what that it should or could be.

Now to the real crux of this discussion, partially alluded to by me earlier in bringing up the possibility of an allusion, and why I chose to write this piece in the first place, which is people constantly asking me or challenging me to give a realistic time line of the Pirates returning to relevancy, to explain how we will know it is taking too long or is in danger of failing and sometimes most importantly what should be done if the Pirates get to that point.

In my honest and amateur assessment, 2021 is most likely going to be somewhat or a mess at times. Hopefully and realistically not as downright terrible as 2020, but not good either. In 2022 we should definitely start to see improvement, and not just the individual improvements we will be looking for this season. By 2023, or at the latest 2024 we need to see a level of competitiveness that we saw from Pittsburgh in 2011 and 2012, but optimistically without the second half collapses experienced during those campaigns. And in 2025, the Pirates better be one of those teams that people don’t want to see on their schedule.

Of course this loosely laid out timeline can be adjusted for a number of different reasons. However, if we are sitting here in 2026, going into the last year of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ team control pending an extension or other things I don’t want to think about, at the same time as the season is about to begin still asking some of the same questions, the Pirates are in trouble, and Ben Cherington should be as well.

After writing all of this I don’t know if I answered all, or any of the questions, concerns and comments Pirates Fans have asked me to address since Cherington took over pertaining to the team’s current build, nevertheless, hopefully you at least know where I stand.

But enough about the future, let’s live in the near present as the Pittsburgh Pirates season is set to begin in less that a week; and I for one couldn’t be more excited.

Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don’t

The Pirates have by in large been given a long leash by the fan base as they embarked on an aggressive rebuild that many didn’t even understand. Fans understood when they didn’t sign any big free agents too because it just wasn’t something that made sense for the stage the club was in.

OK, not everybody. But enough that they’ve operated with relative unquestioned bliss. Everybody felt the club was in need of change and for the most part that’s been taking place. We’ve watched the prospect group improve and for the most part understood why the club needed to trade players. It’s part of the plan, and while it’s not always fun, it does seem logical.

Well, one of the things the team hinted at and to be blunt, fans expect is to see a sign that the club is committed. To spending money, to investing in legitimate talent, to securing the future and the window they’re trying to open.

For many, this all means one thing, extend Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Enter Joh Heyman.

I question a few things he’s supposed here. First of all these early deals are no more infrequent today, especially since they just really started cropping up recently.

Let’s break this down a bit.

For one thing, “no traction” seems to be something Jon has decided he loves to use.
Oh, yeah I guess I should show you in case you missed a slightly later tweet.

There it is again. Traction. Also note that from Jon’s perspective the only way the club gets any “credit” is if they succeed in getting a deal done. The offer means nothing, there is nothing gained by trying.

Players get to decide what’s right for them too. They don’t just get presented with a deal and aw shucks sign that can’t miss opportunity. Especially in Hayes case, it’s not that he doesn’t need or want money, but it’s fair to say he doesn’t have the very real feeling that he needs to help his family that supported him on the way. Charlie has that on lock down I’d imagine.

In other words he can wait. Now when you offer a 19 year old from the Dominican a 14 year contract worth 200 million or so, versus the very real 5 or 6 year journey to “maybe money” that comes with turning it down. Helping their family is a big part of the goal for many of these young men and sometimes it makes taking advantage of them a bit easier. Well if you can consider paying them that much as taking advantage.

Stories like this crop up every year, the Pirates have done it themselves, McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, and those are just the bigger ones. So it of course stands to reason we’d want and expect the Pirates to do it again with this generation, Hayes, Reynolds, and Keller could all be candidates.

So it shouldn’t shock us the Pirates tried, you know, especially since they told us they were talking to Ke’ about this very thing.

Whatever numbers they were working through, didn’t meet the threshold and when things like that happen, information gets leaked. Agents talk to reporters, team officials talk to reporters. Both want the other to look greedy. One wants to convince everyone they gave it the ole college try. Players want to ‘trust the process’ and make sure you feel they’re just waiting for a fair offer.

At the end of the day, this doesn’t have to get done today. The Pirates control Hayes for half a decade yet, but the opportunity to score some PR and lock down a vital part of the future is rightly something the club is exploring. As misguided as it is, people would see a commitment to Hayes as a sign Mr. Nutting is willing to spend. I say misguided because even if they signed him to a 10 year 200 million dollar deal chances are the last couple seasons would be where the big money was tucked and it’s likely 10 really means 8. Just like Tatis probably won’t spend 14 seasons in San Diego. Just like Stanton didn’t spend the duration of his contract in Miami.

I’m inclined to take from this that the deal isn’t getting done this year, but not that it’s dead in the water. In other words, this doesn’t mean Hayes is always going to say no or the Pirates are always going to low ball.

Chances are this particular ‘report’ was a partial leak by both parties and it doesn’t exactly denote any bad blood or doom. Aside from Heyman’s own illustrative words, its actually quite benign.

I don’t believe they’re done discussing this, but if Hayes continues to swing the way his has since he first put on the big league uniform the Pirates need to realize he gets more expensive every single day, and I’m quite sure they do.

A Willingness to Think Differently

There are times in life when you look up and realize you’ve spent so much time trying to keep up with the neighbors that you’ve forgotten to take care of what is in your wheelhouse or works for you.

The Pirates in many ways have had this play out. Teams focusing on power, launch angle. Deemphasizing the strikeout. Steering clear of using the running game to pressure opposing defenses. Allowing the extreme shifts they face to go unchecked.

Maybe when we get to the regular season the Pirates will jump right back to that school of thought, but this Spring they have really looked like they planned to take a different approach.

None of this is to say they won’t happily take some homeruns or that you’re going to see Jacob Stallings take off for second on a 2-1 count.

But as I watched Gregory Polanco drop down an unsuccessful bunt down the completely vacated third base line in yesterday’s game versus the Orioles it struck me that this isn’t just something the kids are trying. This is an approach the Pirates are actively trying to pursue.

MLB is trying to eliminate extreme shifts from the game by testing new rules to at least box the process in a bit in MiLB this year. The rules won’t eliminate the shift but they should all but eliminate seeing all 4 infielders on one side of the diamond.

The Pirates aren’t waiting.

When your club isn’t likely to finish in the top 25 for homeruns you better find a way to score runs. So having Colin Moran or Gregory Polanco take the free double teams keep shoving under their nose and more importantly to see them actually try it makes a whole lot of sense.

Combine that type of action with an organization wide approach that emphasizes hitting the ball where it’s pitched and I bet by the end of this season the Pirates will become a team that has been shifted against less than the rest of the league.

The league average for shifts, and we’re talking extreme now, is 34.1%. So it’s funny to see the Pirates who ranked 3rd in shift percentage last season with a whopping 46.2% actively try to eliminate the advantage from opponents. For perspective, nobody does it more than the Dodgers 55.8% of the time and they don’t play favorites based on which side of the plate you happen to be hitting from.

In a way, what the Pirates are doing is taking an approach at the plate designed to beat the defense they’ve traditionally run.

It’s smart coaching, progressive coaching and in the early going (yes Spring) it’s working. Teams are less aggressive with shifting in the Spring anyway, but the approach at the plate will ultimately keep those numbers manageable.

Why does this matter so damn much? Let’s look at Gregory Polanco.

In 2019 Greg faced shifts 51.2% of the time resulting in a wOBA with no shift of .332 and with the shift .280. 2020 saw these numbers change drastically, as he faced a shift 86.8% of the time and that changed his numbers drastically wOBA with no shift only changes to .316 (far fewer opportunities) and with a shift .219.

Polanco is a guy who’s exit velocity is in the 95th percentile, his hard hit% is in the 94th, but the shift is negating almost all the positives that could come from that. So when you see him try to drop a bunt down the 3rd base line, the hit he might get is nice, but the goal is to get some of the shifts to return to where they were in 2019 if not even better.

Now, these are just numbers, but when we discuss how very bad some players looked last year it looks as thought the coaches have at least identified this as one way to maximize the ability of every player by taking an arrow out of the quiver the opponents have defensively.

We’ll have to see how this plays out, but statistically speaking, this is a smart approach and one that will at the very least make the Pirates tougher to play and plan against in 2021.

Steven Wright is Depth, and a Crapshoot

I’m making no supposition as to whether Mr. Wright the knuckleballer the Pirates just signed to a minor league deal actually helps the team or not this season, not yet. He’s returning from Tommy John and one would imagine with a guy tossing balls up there in the 60’s his recovery isn’t much of a concern.

I immediately saw fans putting him in the starting rotation and I honestly think we need to just make sure everyone understands how the 40-man works. He’s not on it, which means he would have to displace someone who is in order to be placed on it, and if he isn’t, it means he can’t pitch in MLB.

This is a cheap way to get someone in the fold who could help eat innings. He adds to the layer of protection the Pirates have built.

I mean, let’s really clearly outline what I mean by depth.

Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker, Tyler Anderson, Wil Crowe, Trevor Cahill, Miguel Yajure, Cody Ponce, Sean Poppen, Luis Oviedo.

Each of these players is on the 40-man. Oviedo will most likely be tucked in the bullpen to survive (hopefully thrive) through his Rule 5 year. Cahill will most likely wind up in the bullpen but could easily start in the rotation if Brault’s injury is a factor.

Of all these players, Sean Poppen is the most likely to find his way out of the 40-man, meaning they would have to waive him and risk having him picked up by someone else, which isn’t the end of the world, but a factor.

Next you have a group of players who are not on the 40-man but provide AAA depth.

Clay Holmes, Steven Wright, Chase De Jong, and James Marvel.

Chase De Jong and Clay Holmes have looked really good this Spring but probably not good enough to force a move on the 40-man. All these players provide depth and if they’re called into action they require more than just a decision that they want to see them pitch or give them a shot, they’ll need to decide if they have a chance to stick. So let’s say sometime in July Clay Holmes is 9-2 for the Indians and Cody Ponce is 5-4. Ponce’s ERA is 2 full points higher, don’t be shocked if Ponce is the call up. Now if the call up is to fill a hole created with a catastrophic injury like a blown out elbow, you might see more of a willingness to pull up and make the appropriate corresponding move with one of those very deep, depth players.

In theory there, the Pirates are 11 deep on the 40-man with 4 more who aren’t. That’s 15 potential starting options and we haven’t even gotten to Cody Bolton who could very well be ready at some point this season or Jose Soriano the Pirates other Rule 5 pickup who currently resides on the 60-man IL and when he recovers the club will have to find a spot for him on the roster.

I fear in some of my writing I’ve talked depth but never really functionally painted the picture. This is a possibly over reaction to the very real fear that pitchers are going to drop like flies as MLB the machine still tries to recover from the COVID caused short season in 2020. The unknown is a scary thing for general managers and much like my wife packing for vacation, they’d rather make sure they have a shoe for every occasion. Much like the 40 man, if she tries to buy another pair while we’re at the beach one pair might not come home with us.

The point of all this is really simple. Not everyone they sign is someone who is pushing your favorite player out of the lineup. In fact at this stage, almost nobody signed will be that.

The other thing we haven’t really discussed that absolutely plays in is the options players possess, but I think I’ve given you enough to digest right now. Suffice to say, this isn’t just about who performed best, it’s about putting the puzzle together in such a way as to keep that crazy depth number as close to where it is as possible.

Start making decisions that chop into that depth and quickly find yourself in trouble. We’ll talk more about the roster as we get closer to the end of Spring but keep this in mind as we do, because most arguments you or anyone will have can be solved by looking at these factors for maintaining depth.

OK, roster geek session concluded for the day…

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 3-22-21

My goodness, things are getting crazy in Pirate land. Some people think they’re ready to compete for the division because they happen to be hitting in Spring. Some have given up on important pieces because of Spring.

Let’s dive in, I’m bursting at the seems this week.

1. Mitch Keller Will Start in MLB on Day One

Rosters aren’t built based on isolated facts. So Mitch Keller has flat out stunk this Spring, but it truly doesn’t matter, he’ll start in MLB. The reasons are numerous. He’ll make it mostly because he has nothing else to learn in AAA and sending him back there would do nothing but give Indianapolis an early buzz as he laid waste to opposing lineups. The pitches are doing exactly what he wants them to do, he’s simply nibbling so much that hitters are waiting him out until he has no choice but to come into the zone, then he gets hammered.

Want to suck at pitching? Be predictable. There is nothing more predictable than “this guy won’t throw you a strike with his fastball so stay back and adjust to the offspeed” I can hear it in my mind when I watch him pitch.

This is not solvable without getting it through his skull at this level. Others have performed better, sure, nobody who the club is anxious to start the clock on has though. This is the year to do it too. You know the division is out of reach this season, this learning process isn’t something that should be delayed. Someone needs to be a bit seasoned heading into 23-24.

Yup it’s not fair to poor Wil Crowe or Miguel Yajure. They’ll wind up pitching anyhow, and Keller’s process isn’t tied to anyone or anything but his currently bungling right arm.

Clayton Kershaw right this minute has pitched 9 innings and given up 12 hits, 3 of which were homeruns. He certainly has a track record that will have nobody talking about how terrible he is, but I will say this, it’s Spring. This is not the story of Kershaw’s season any more than it is Keller’s. Sometimes learning a lesson hurts, but not trying to teach them leads to more pain.

2. Leiter and Rocker are Truly Close

These two teammates are duking it out for 1-2 in the upcoming draft and if you’ve called a winner back oh let’s say Christmas 2020, I suggest you take a fresh look. Predicting number one draft picks almost a full year in advance is the stuff of the truly foolish. Thank goodness the decision won’t be made by anyone who would engage in that nonsense way back when.

In fact, unless one of them gets hurt before the draft, I bet nobody will know for sure day of. Oh but, Rocker is a generational talent! Yeah, maybe, maybe there are more than one of those this year. Maybe Rocker will wind up being a closer. Maybe MLB hitters won’t swing at his fastball that bounces in. And if you must already talk about the 2022 draft, please peddle that elsewhere, Mr. Green might not even be top ten by then. Yes, I know, I know, you’ve watched baseball or played it and you know better than me. Cool, you win. Just leave me out of it.

3. Rick Eckstein Making His Mark

His message is visibly getting through. The Pirates have a very consistent approach across the board and it’s making the lineup incredibly hard to pitch to. Sure it’s spring. Sure these stats don’t matter. Yup, it could all be nothing. But what if it isn’t?

I can’t remember too many times I’ve seen the Pirates lineup, at any point in the year really, look like a cohesive unit. Right handers, left handers, switch hitters, everybody has the stick working and they’re truly doing damage.

We quickly forgot how the offense hummed in 2019 under his tutelage as the disaster of 2020 made everyone look like a chump. Perhaps we’ve spent too much time focusing on what these hitters don’t have (POWER) and not enough time focusing on what they could potentially do with a solid approach. This is a question that soon will be answered, but it’s worth noting it’s been rare to see anyone in this lineup throw away an at bat this Spring, that in and of itself speaks volumes.

4. Cahill and Underwood Jr Take the Hill

Cahill did what he does. Went out there and flipped the ball in like Andy Griffith skipping stones, and when you looked up he had 2 scoreless under his belt. Underwood made his debut in today’s contest today and came out firing 94-95 on the gun with a nice sweeping slurve I’d call it. Really nice movement on the 2-seam too. He too tossed a scoreless outing.

Cahill is simply put a mercenary. This is his 9th team, I think Boog Powell is probably proud. All of his outings won’t be like this where he mowed through 6 batters with 17 pitches, but enough will be that he’s a nice tool to have in the arsenal. The way Underwood looked, I’m truly confused as to what the Cubs weren’t seeing vs what we haven’t yet. Because he truly didn’t look like a pitcher struggling for confidence or stuff.

Luis Oviedo the Rule 5 pickup also debuted in this one and he gave up some hard contact and a run. I didn’t see enough to really say what he is, but I can say he wasn’t fooling anyone today.

5. Depth is Apparent

The Pirates may have traded away some guys who are better than what they left behind, but as the great George Carlin once said, “I never had a 10, but one night I had 5 2’s”

This Pirates club is deeper than I can remember, and yes, I’m going all the way back to the limits of my actual memory. This club has always been an injury away from catastrophe and it’s nice to for once to truthfully believe this club could survive a few.

Thank you all for the support as the new podcast at DK Pittsburgh Sports has really taken off. I’ve always been humbled you wanted to read my thoughts and I’m taken aback that you also apparently want to listen to them.

One more five thoughts before Spring Training is over!

From a Waiver Pickup to a Reliable Reliever

Before the 2020 season started in July, I had a conversation in a Rum Bunter recap about one of the Pirates’ exhibition games against Cleveland. The comment I specifically took note of was one about how Chris Stratton, a reliever in Pittsburgh’s bullpen, had been bad in 2019. The person went on to use his 3.66 ERA that year with the Bucs as a point for his argument. I don’t think he’s bad, and I believe Stratton could play a fairly large role with the Pirates this year. Today, I’ll be checking out Stratton’s path to success and what his role could look like in 2021.

To fully understand a situation, you always have to look to the beginning. Stratton spent the first three years of his career with the Giants, and the results were not awful to start. But once San Francisco got a look at a full season of him, Stratton responded with a 5.09 ERA in 26 starts and 145 innings. Right before the start of the 2019 season, The Los Angeles Angels took a shot at Stratton, acquiring him for Williams Jerez (former Pirate alert!) in the hopes they could turn him into a decent backend starter. In 5 starts there, Stratton put up an abysmal 8.59 ERA and was subsequently designated for assignment, where he was picked up by the Pirates for some cash. 

Stratton’s time in Pittsburgh didn’t exactly get off to the best start, as he got injured just four appearances into his Pirates career. When he returned towards the end of June, Stratton allowed just 5 runs in 22 innings up until the 2019 trade deadline. Ultimately, Stratton ended up with a 3.66 ERA with the Pirates, with every appearance that he made for Pittsburgh that season coming out of the bullpen. In 2020, Stratton was once again very solid, with a 3.90 ERA in 30 innings pitched. The biggest difference between his 2019 role and his role last season was that Stratton was called upon for one inning more often, but that didn’t change his results at all, but it was interesting how he was deployed with Hurdle vs. Shelton. So why has Stratton been so effective since joining Pittsburgh?

The first thing I noticed when looking at Stratton’s stats was the big fluctuation in numbers when he started vs. when he was called out of the bullpen. The results actually gave me mixed thoughts, because in 2017 and 2018 with San Francisco he was more effective in a starting role, and then in 2019 and 2020 between Anaheim and Pittsburgh, Stratton was far more effective out of the ‘pen. I would have thought the multi-inning starts would have been troublesome for Stratton all around, but that only seemed to be the case in recent years. 

Another stat that caught my eye was the velocity change. Normally with relievers nearing their 30s, you don’t see a drastic change in velocity. While Stratton has not increased the speed of his pitches significantly, it has gone up over the last few years. For example, his four-seam fastball averaged out at 91.1 MPH in 2018. That was up to 92.2 in 2019 and 93.2 in 2020. Stratton’s slider, curveball, and changeup all saw about a 2-3 MPH increase from 2019 to 2020 alone. This actually reflected on his results from those two years, as basically every single advanced pitching stat went in a positive direction for Stratton. A couple that really stood out were spin, where his fastball spin rate went from 2498 RPM to 2627 and his whiff rate, which went from 27.8 to 54.2 percent. If you’re curious about the full breakdown, you can check that out here. 

So what exactly does this all mean for Chris Stratton in 2021? Well, based on the current projected construction of the Pirates bullpen, it seems as if Stratton will get innings in close games, which he has actually thrived in, giving up just 7 earned runs in 22 innings the last few seasons. 

I already know people are going to mention a trade after reading this, so I guess I could address the possibility of that happening. Personally, I like Chris Stratton, as you could tell, and I give the Pirates credit for taking him and turning him into a very solid reliever the last season and a half. Coming into his age 30 season, Stratton’s making just 1.1 million dollars this year and has two years of arbitration remaining. In my mind, this would be a perfect guy to trade. Stratton is easily replaceable in my eyes, as far as innings go, and no matter how the bullpen is constructed, there will surely be someone who could fill that role. If he comes out and pitches like he did last year, with the same velocity and effectiveness from the jump, the return value for that low of money value on a contract could be pretty decent.

Remember, Chris Stratton was a waiver wire grab back in 2019, so if the Pirates can get something out of it, it is an absolute win for the previous front office and the current one. Neal Huntington will surely be smiling somewhere. 

Positivity but Not to the Point of Stupidity

I tend to lean a little toward the positive side of things when it comes to the Pirates, hell, I probably do it with all my favorite teams. That said, I try to keep it grounded in reality. Some folks like to pretend it’s more complicated than that or to see things positively in any way you must be employed by the Nutting family.

There are very real reasons to be positive about this baseball team. For one thing this is a young team, with room to grow. In other words, there are players who will actually get even better as they gain more experience. Ke’Bryan Hayes actually will get even better.

Case in point. Early in the Spring Ke’ had one of his only MLB mistakes, and I’m potentially being unfair by even saying it was his mistake. He broke for third on a ground ball and Kevin Newman stayed put at 3rd. This caused an out as both players were at the same station.

Just two games back the exact same situation cropped up. This time, Hayes played it perfectly. See, good young players will often have things that require polish, great young players will often make a mistake and learn from it. What a wonderful example of how players aren’t static representations of their stats.

I’m not saying Hayes is on this level, almost nobody is, but this is just like Sidney Crosby who isn’t happy with his faceoff win percentage and goes into the offseason with an intent to improve and leads the league in that metric the next season.

Some players actually do get better. Some don’t and it’s important to recognize that as well. Because optimism without the counterbalance of reality is blindness.

When I tell you I think Cole Tucker is a player I never see truly living up to his first round pedigree, I’m not being a ‘hater’, I’m simply calling it like I see it. And I’m not basing it on what he’s done alone, no, I’m looking at what he’s doing now. I’m watching the 3rd time the team has tweaked his stance and approach at the plate. The third time it’s looked like it took. The third time it looked like playing him consecutive games caused the lessons he learned to almost erode before our very eyes.

It’s not fun to tell a fan base I believe yet another first rounder isn’t going to pan out, and when I tell you I hope I’m wrong, I truly mean it.

When I tell you the team won’t be as bad as many seem to think, believe it or not, that doesn’t mean I’m saying they’ll be in the World Series mix. It means you can stop telling me about Elijah Greene, next year’s far too early expected number 1 pick.

When we say too many of you decided to marry Kumar Rocker as the number one pick a year ago, it’s again not because we’re haters or can’t see the talent, it’s because we know how things change with a college and high school baseball season still to play. We also know there is plenty of competition. No matter how passionately you tell me, he’s the right pick the race is MUCH closer than you think.

I say this because I fully expect as an opinion writer and podcaster to have people disagree with me. It’s quite literally part of the job. If you never disagree with me, chances are, I’m not doing a very good job or at the very least not taking a strong enough stance on anything. I want you to agree or disagree and ultimately I want you to feel I’m fair and can be swayed by a good argument. That’s what this is all about really. If I get you thinking, I’ve done my job.

Baseball is a terrific game for real passionate discussion because tiny things like that Hayes story up there can truly be seen multiple ways and all of them could be right to a degree.

Let me tell you the number one reason for optimism about this club, sometime this season make your way to Altoona to take in a game. That Curve team has a chance to be special, I mean like league champion special. I can’t sit here and tell you two years from now that whole team is in Pittsburgh, but a decent amount will be. That’s positivity, optimism, soaked in reality. It doesn’t mean the current MLB squad isn’t worth watching, it doesn’t mean there aren’t parts and pieces that will be part of a winner here. It just means, we aren’t looking into some future based on a ton of lottery ticket prospects. We’re looking at a future grounded in currently blooming prospects.

You aren’t a fool for believing, and you aren’t one for being guarded either. If you actively try to see both sides where you land will usually be pretty close to the truth. That’s what we’re trying to provide here. Fair Pirates Coverage is the Point.

Pirates Development Philosophy on Full Display

The Pirates played the Baltimore Orioles last night in a rare Spring Training Night tilt. If you’re of a certain age you understand just how foreign it feels to see spring games on at night, but I have to admit, I really got a kick out of watching people in Florida fully bundled up like they were filming a Hallmark Holiday flick on location.

I’d imagine both coaches had to blow off some steam after this one. An error filled disaster of a baseball game on both sides of the diamond. So it was an odd night to have Kevin Young in the booth talking about defense and the importance of it in the system even while both clubs were kicking the ball all over the field.

Kevin Young made his debut in the booth last night and spent a ton of time talking about his participation in the development system. Really informative stuff from Kevin, but he’s worked with Pirates first basemen for years so there wasn’t any real earth shattering news either.

Then late in the game the Pirates new Director of Coaching and Player Development, John Baker was on live with the booth. I expected a bunch of ‘we just want to get better’ and ‘these guys don’t believe in ceilings” instead what we got was a very honest look at not only where the system is but where it’s going.

It’s not just lip service that the Pirates want to identify the talents that make individuals special and help accentuate them. It’s the very philosophy of the development system.

Now, before I get into this too deep, at this stage, these are just words. We won’t truly know if what the Pirates are trying to implement will work for years to come. You don’t just show up on day one with zero MiLB games, say some words and then call it fixed. I get the impression Mr. Baker is well aware of that, if not frustrated by the lost time 2020 created quite possibly for no area of the club more than his charge.

John won’t be the first or only guy to tell the fans that the club wants to work with individual players to bring out what makes them best. Honestly, Kyle Stark said this stuff. Now, we had almost a decade to see whatever he was doing wasn’t working.

So what makes me believe this guy is really making a change? Well for one thing his coaches are echoing the mantra. Something I rarely if ever heard in a uniform manner during the past regime. You’d hear them pat each other on the back like when the boss shows up at the horseshoe pit at the company picnic. But genuine adoption of the philosophy being preached, no way.

Baker is looking to mix old school and new school. Not ignoring analytics but instead incorporating them into a contact driven approach meant to maximize the talent the Pirates already have.

I know, more words.

Well, except that he’s potentially onto something here. See, every team has a proverbial path to winning, but how many of them have one that doesn’t require a Bryce Harper falling out of the sky?

What does this new school hybrid player look like? Well, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, those players with plenty of power but the discipline to stay in more at bats and make more contact.

It’s eschewing the three true outcomes to a degree and instead of following the herd potentially leading at least this franchise into a more athletic and pure form of the game John and many of us for that matter grew up enjoying.

It’s actually exactly what baseball in general should be focusing on, rather than creating a new booklet of arcane rules to try to prevent defenders from taking hits away, but I digress.

Looking at the system, especially from a positional standpoint the Pirates have a few things in spades, speed, contact, defense. Those three things are there up and down the system and it seems the club recognizes the best way to translate that to MLB talent is to not try to hammer these players into what the league has turned into, but instead let them be the best version of themselves.

If that means the future team has 6 guys who could hit .275 with 15-20 homeruns instead of 2 who hit .245 with 30-35 along with 160+ strikeouts, I think that’s a win.

Trying to create a dangerous lineup that does more than hunt the homerun, it makes the homerun potentially count more as it stands to reason there would be more guys on base when they happen.

This all has to be executed of course, but the idea itself is something many fans have been calling for seemingly for decades. Get back to fundamentals.

Again, I’m not here to tell you everything is fixed. Surely it isn’t. But I can say, when you look at the types of talent in the system, it’s an approach that might just maximize who is already here, and that in and of itself is light years ahead of where this franchise has been.