It’s Cool To Have Good Prospects

Pirates Fans are paying attention to Spring Training with one watchful eye, as the other regularly drifts toward the future. This obviously includes the prospects that will one day reopen the window, which was abruptly shut following the 2015 season ; although we didn’t know it was officially closed until at least 2017 or after.

Exit Neil Huntington and commence the era of Ben Cherington, the new great hope for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who has added a number of top prospects to this supposed floundering farm system in an apparent rejuvenation of the minors. As evidence Cherington has added 14 prospects to the top 30; an unfathomable achievement from what I can gather, or what is being presented as fact because there is no way anyone has ever done this before.

This unquestionable belief, and undoubtedly evident analysis is proven by the most recent rankings, as well as the declaration of the Pirates presence as one of the most elite teams with their recent inclusion of top farm systems in MLB; because this is where success is conclusively determined.

At this point, after having navigated through a sea the sarcastic analogies and pessimistic undertones you might be surprised to find out that I am actually pretty happy with the prospects that have been acquired and the direction the team is headed. However, as the Pirates Media Department tweeted out, they are just getting started; and more succinctly in my mind they better keep it going because this is far from over.

As fans of prospects it is a major pastime to compare said Minor League rankings to identify the ones that imply that their team has officially arrived again, which is why the focus is usually on their #4 on Fangraphs or #8 on MLB Pipeline, as opposed to Keith Law’s ranking of #16 or Baseball America’s #13. But, in all honesty they could climb to #1 across the board and it wouldn’t matter unless they are able to stay healthy and perform in the Majors.

Just a few years back they were seen as a system on the rise with players like Reese McGuire, Nick Kingham, Alen Hanson, John Holdzkom and Andrew Lambo. We all know how that turned out. Also it wasn’t until 2018 when they actually moved out of the top 10 on all sites, so the trip back was not as long as many try to make it seem. Additionally I still see teams like the Blue Jays and Padres ahead of them, even though San Diego traded away what seems like half their system and Toronto has graduated a lot of their top prospects already, plus they both spend money.

Yes, they have to be near the top in order to compete, but it doesn’t automatically mean that they will when the time comes. Ben Cherington’s job is far from done and hopefully he’s just getting started because truthfully there is something that’s a little bit cooler than prospects.

Closer or Trade Piece? 2021 Might Have it All For Richard Rodriguez

The Pirates’ 2021 bullpen is likely to include a lot of moving parts, with competition for almost every spot taking place this spring. There are a few spots already filled up, and one of them is occupied by Richard Rodriguez, the presumptive closer.

But is his place on the roster really set in stone, and is it time for the Pirates to move on and look toward the future? Today I’ll be looking at RichRod and the many scenarios in which we could see his 2021 season play out. 

When Rodriguez was brought into the organization after giving up nine runs in five and ⅔ innings in a rough MLB debut with the Orioles, the idea was to hopefully turn him into a solid reliever, as he started on a minor league spring invite. He started the 2018 season in the minors, but quickly made his way up the big leagues on April 13th. 

Not only did Rodriguez grab a spot in the Pirates’ bullpen, but he was even asked to be a late-inning option, often setting up Kyle Crick and Felipe Vasquez in the seventh inning. In fact, 48 and ⅓ of his 69 and ⅓ innings in 2018 were pitched in the 7th inning or later, and his 2.47 ERA really cemented Rodriguez’s spot in the bullpen long-term. 

In 2019, Rodriguez had his “down” season, with a still very solid 3.72 ERA when it was all said and done. The longball really hurt him, especially early, as he gave up 5 homers in 10 May innings. Take that month out and you’re looking at another very good season from Rodriguez.

Last season was yet another really good season (2.70 ERA) for Rodriguez, and Derek Shelton even trusted him enough to assume the closer position for 5 games toward the end of the season, closing out 4 of those. 

Now coming into his age 31 season in 2021, there are a lot of questions surrounding Rodriguez. The first one is the most common, and that is the idea to trade him. I didn’t think the offseason was the best time to trade him, same goes with spring training, and it looks like I will be fulfilled on both of those wishes.

No matter if the Pirates are trying to win or not this season, every bullpen needs a veteran arm or two to lead the pack, and one of those being a reliable closer helps. Plus, the Pirates don’t really have an awful amount of good prospects who desperately need major league innings at the moment, especially since it seems Blake Cederlind could have a Tommy John surgery in his future. 

If they were to get rid of anyone at the moment, the Pirates would likely DFA Sean Poppen or Tyler Bashlor before trading anyone. This obviously does not take away the possibility of a Rodriguez trade or anyone else for that matter, but should a 40-man roster move need to happen right away, like a waiver claim, trade, or a straight up addition, there are other options.

Another thing to pay some attention to is Rodriguez’s contract. According to Spotrac, Rodriguez still has two arbitration-eligible years remaining until he is a UFA. This has almost no effect on a potential trade, but a team looking to acquire him might like the two and a half years of control if he were hypothetically traded at the July 31st deadline. There’s a chance teams could value the team control highly, and if Rodriguez performs well, I am all for a trade. 


What happens if there is no trade at all this year? This is a legitimate possibility, and in my eyes it only happens if Rodriguez is injured at the time like Keone Kela was last year. Remember, Ben Cherington made a whopping zero moves on trade deadline day last year, and now people are talking about how good his offseason was and how he’s re-stocking the system the right way. I, for one, do trust him to take the right approach, until he doesn’t of course.

So what’s 2021 actually going to look like for Richard Rodriguez? Well, anybody’s guess is as good as mine, but if I had to take a crack at it, I would start Rodriguez as the team’s closer, have him try to build up as much trade value as possible, and then see what you can get for him come trade deadline. This is not an automatic trade-now situation as he is not on the last year of his contract. In my opinion, David Bednar is the next man up especially in the event that Rodriguez gets dealt at any point (and also under the assumption Cederlind needs TJ), but anybody could take over. Also, I don’t mind seeing those dreads closing out ball games in PNC Park for a little while longer.

Then Came the Moves – Let’s Wrap Up the Pirates First Half of Spring

I don’t want this piece to come across as a glorified I told you so. It’s just more confirmation that the Pirates are sticking largely with the script as Spring Training progresses.

I told you yesterday that the Bucs would be purging the Spring Roster and why and once the game was over the Pirates were kind enough to oblige.

I thought what would be nice today would be to quickly talk about how all of these guys did in limited action this Spring. Some were given more of an opportunity than others but that’s ok, the goal was different for all of them.

We’ll break it up just like the Pirates did too. See, that initial tweet might as well have a title that says these guys are pretty close. Let’s call them the prospects we expect to see in Pittsburgh during 2021.

Rodolfo Castro

Castro was my dark horse to make the team out of camp. Meaning I think he’s further along than any of the other prospects and his incredible position flexibility makes him an attractive option. All that was before watching him smash two homeruns and generally look right at home taking MLB at bats and even looking like a field general at times out there once the games started to turn more into prospect showcases. I get the impression he won’t be held back long. Castro is the real deal.

Roansy Contreras

He’s never pitched above Single A before being dealt to the Pirates in the Jameson Taillon deal so the Pirates rightly didn’t put him on a schedule that had him breaking camp with the club. His one outing went exceptionally well though and he has special stuff. While he’s only 21 and as mentioned very little experience, sometimes bullpen guys can really rocket. This is one of those guys potentially, because the stuff is mature. I feel like very many bad things will have to take place on the MLB team in order to see Roansy make his debut this season, but if he does, it’ll be late.

Oneil Cruz

Honestly, he didn’t match the buzz did he? The Pirates did give him a real look. Of all the prospects he probably got the most time with other perceived MLB players. In is 22 official at bats he walked 2 times had 1 hit and struck out 5 times. He honestly looked worse than that too. Cruz is a huge talent and he’ll start in AAA where I hope they decide a path to pursue with him positionally. He played a bit of CF this Spring and didn’t look bad doing it, but you certainly couldn’t call him battle tested.

As with most position player prospects, the bat will tell the story. Right now, that part of his game needs work. So next time someone wants to argue what position he plays in MLB, tell them the batter’s box is the one that matters most.

Max Kranick

Max only got two innings of work with 9 batters faced. He’s 23 and has never played past Single A. I believe he’ll start in Altoona and he has work to do on his control. He’s always been a starter, but I see him as a fringe guy to ever make the Pirates rotation. Seems more like a bullpen guy to me. He really has an interesting pitch mix and all it takes to change the trajectory for a pitcher like Max is one or two of them becoming special pitches. His fastball won’t be that pitch. He’ll be a guy who needs to work most at bats backwards to be successful and I came away feeling more Zack Davies about him than anything. I think he’s out of the mix for this season.

Nick Mears

The Pirates gave Mears a real look in Spring, probably buoyed by his cup of coffee in 2020. His fastball is just electric but Nick still needs work on control. Far too many walks and as of yet not enough strikeouts to make up for it.

He’ll start in AAA and with Blake Cederlind going down and potentially facing TJ, he now officially becomes the next best bet to take a back of the pen spot this year. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself this Spring either, but it’s clear he needs some fine tuning. Keep in mind we’re talking about a guy who barely got a taste of AA before he wound up in Pittsburgh trying to get outs last season. I actually think starting in AAA is exactly the fine tuning he needs. He’ll be back, and it’ll most likely be this season.

The Second Part of the List

These are all the minor league camp assignments and I won’t dwell on them too deeply.

Cody Bolton – Never pitched this Spring, and while some have him penciled in as the next Starting pitcher prospect to look for, I think the Pirates would have to have a catastrophe for him to see MLB playing time in 2021 and that includes September call ups. Lots of potential, needs to start in AAA and make hay.

Jason Delay – We saw one at bat from him this Spring, but he adds to the catching depth and should start in AAA by the time they figure out which guy will be on the taxi squad. I think Indianapolis will carry three catchers but it’s possible they start Delay in AA.

Nick Gonzales – Honestly, anything you expected to see was probably too much. But you hear people toss around ETAs like candy corn in October just about every draft season. It’s clear Nick needs work. He showed nothing that even resembled a good approach this Spring and no, none of this means he’s a bust, it means he’s quite literally a brand new draft pick and this takes work. I don’t have a handle on where he’ll start, but I feel AA makes sense.

Jandel Gustave – One of Cherington’s first waiver claims last season the righty will start in AAA and add to a mix of experienced (albeit not much) waiting in the wings as depth. He’s also almost 29 years old and didn’t pitch one inning this Spring, so to see him listed anywhere constitutes the most action we’ve seen since his pick up.

Mason Martin – What can you say, he played a hell of a first base! Didn’t hit all that much but one thing that continued for him were strikeouts. That’s going to come with a power prospect but being it was stated pre-Spring that he wanted to work on that aspect and that was echoed by the coaches. AA makes a ton of sense here and I fear for the roller coaster in Altoona, cause this kid will hit the ball and far.

Cal Mitchell – Hard to say what they’ll do with Cal. He looked good in the field, took his walks at the plate this Spring, but not everyone can start in AA, however he might be too far along for Single A. I just don’t have a good handle on this one. Love the prospect, don’t have a handle on how much the team does if that makes sense.

Liover Peguero – Didn’t get any reps this year in Spring and that’s fine, they just wanted to get him some exposure and get eyes on him. I actually forgot this until talking with Craig but recall he had visa issues getting into camp in the first place and they may have simply not gotten where they wanted. For as often as you hear his name, I’d imagine many will be shocked to see him start in Single A but I think he just might. Going to be a really good player, but also not going to be here super quick.

Quinn Priester – Ahh, the 2/3 innings heard round the world. This was exactly what it was designed to be, a taste. It will be interesting to see what they do with him to start. Baseball America paint the picture that he might be the best pitching prospect in all the land by the time 2021 is over, I’ll just say AA is in his sights at some point, even if he doesn’t start there.

Canaan Smith-Njigba – Acquired in the Taillon deal with New York, Canaan will almost definitely start in AA and the Pirates really gave him a look this Spring. He’s built like a football player and has power potential that this system surely needs. This is someone I see targeting the Clemente wall before too long, but not this year.

Travis Swaggerty – Many projected he could help this season in MLB. I disagreed when I heard it, I disagree now. I just don’t see it and I believe he’ll start in AA. He has a ton of speed and is a terrific defender, but I just don’t see the bat. And yes, unfortunately I mean ever. I don’t like how the bat profiles, but I’d love to be proven wrong. I think for him to be most effective he’ll need to become an OBA machine.

Today is a Big Day for Rosters in MLB

Today isn’t some official day when teams have to make major cuts, but today is the last day teams can option or reassign players when injuries occur without having to put them on MLB IL.

Why is this important? Well if a player like say Quinn Priester were to remain on the roster after today and he were to pull a hamstring, he’s have to go on MLB IL, using MLB service time, with MLB pay.

Point is, expect to read a rather large list of names today after the game. None of the names you see should shock you, we aren’t talking about decisions on Goodwin or Wolters here. Instead we’re talking young prospects like Nick Gonzales and the aforementioned Quinn.

So, this isn’t a true deadline where the club has to make cuts or decisions but it probably will look like it was by the time they’re done.

This also won’t answer too many questions about the roster. Nobody who is reassigned today had much of, if any shot at making it this year.

It does mark a pivot point in Spring training though. Now it becomes a bit tighter. Survive this date and you’ve got just as much a shot as anyone else in theory. At the very least the club is telling you, “hey, if you end up getting MLB service time and pay, we were kinda there on you anyway”.

I won’t go so far as to say this is a cut down to the 26-man and the alternate training roster, but it should be rather close.

I could give you a list of names here but honestly, you know who they are. There’s a reason Priester was allowed to go out there and get his 2/3 inning, strict pitch count outing yesterday. They wanted to give him that taste but any later than this and the risk would be too great. The nature of pitching means they won’t want him in camp even doing something as benign as long toss after today.

This doesn’t mean they’re jettisoned into the sun, they just aren’t in MLB camp anymore. I expect we’ll start seeing some split squad stuff soon and that will reintroduce many of the players we’ll see on the lists as being cut, but the paper transactions have to happen.

I know many are picturing Ricky Vaughn opening his locker and finding a red ticket to talk to skip. That’s not how this stuff goes down in real life, especially for this type of move. There won’t be many players who didn’t absolutely know and expect this was coming.

After today, we kick into a different gear. Preparing for April 1st and the Chicago Cubs.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 3-15-21

Well it’s been one heck of a week in Pirates land with a ton of things going on with injuries, DFA, signings and the like.

In a bit of personal news, I’ve started a new podcast at DK Pittsburgh Sports Radio called Gary Morgan’s Fan Forum. This week’s is all baseball but we’ll probably talk all Pittsburgh sports. I really hope you can check it out. I’ll toss in the listen link at the bottom of the piece today. Your support has led to this opportunity, so for that I thank you all.

Now lets dig into todays 5 Thoughts!

1. Let’s Ban Banning the Shift

Oh, there’s no love lost for the shift with me. I really can’t stand what it’s become in the game, but legislating it out will be messy and in my opinion stupid. Think of the conversations we’ll have about this as MLB tries to make this a reality. We’ll have to define the difference between a shift and a shade. We’ll have to have new rules like the second baseman or short stop can never cross the middle of the diamond on pre pitch set up.

This is something I’d happily see stop in the game but it’s there for the same reason the New Jersey Devils instituted and perfected the trap back in the 90’s. It works.

It works because hitters have been coached to achieve metrics that are believed to lead to more tangible results, but once the game starts, it’s on hitters to beat and exploit what’s being done to them. It’s so unfathomable that you could completely vacate the left side of the infield against a hitter and he would still just drill it to the right side.

At some point, you make your own luck. Hockey eliminated the 2 line offside pass to break the trap and restore order to their game in the name of entertainment for the fans, perhaps baseball is trying to take this approach, but for me, there isn’t anything happening defensively that a hitter, with a proper approach, can’t exploit. Interesting to see how this plays out.

2. Real Prospect Talent is Coming, Some of You Just Met Him

Not everyone is deeply familiar with every prospect that wasn’t selected in the first round. That’s normal, I readily admit when it comes to this, I’m anything but. Some of you have just met Rodolfo Castro this spring, but you can tell watching him play, he’s much more advanced than almost any other name you kept hearing chatter about this off season. He is a nailed on perfect super utility player, one you manage to find a place to play 5 or 6 games a week. And no, this isn’t like sticking Tucker in CF, this is a guy who’s already played all over the field, and well.

He may not be a generational superstar, but he is very real help that is very close to actually benefiting this club in a meaningful way.

3. The Bullpen Could be Really Good

That’s the good part of the story, because if the rotation continues to look like it has there won’t be a more vital part of the club. There are plenty of pieces there to pull together a nice season and I don’t mean the few who will make the club on opening day, I mean the depth that stretches to AAA. With the Blake Cederlind news that broke late last week it’s pretty clear he wont be part of the mix this year as was expected. News like that last year would have been just as devastating as hearing Nick Burdi went down again. This year it just sucks because he could have helped, not because he was the only player who could.
Make sure you check out Craig’s piece on this from this morning.

4. Where’s Greg?

Many people have asked me over the past week where Polanco has been. Most assumed a mystery injury, but he was away from the team for the birth of his child and makes his return today. In many ways this was incredible timing because they really needed to get playing time to newly acquired Dustin Fowler and Brian Goodwin while not sacrificing experience for Anthony Alford who actually did get hurt, although it seems to be just a bruise. Cuts will happen later this week and since Greg absolutely won’t be one, he might have been on the bench anyhow.

Also, congratulations Gregory.

5. Wolters or Perez?

When the Pirates signed Tony Wolters I automatically assumed he’d be the backup catcher based on experience alone. What we’ve seen however is a genuine competition in camp and I honestly couldn’t tell you which one has taken the lead. Again I think Wolters has the edge based on his defensive reputation and experience level, but Perez has been just as impressive defensively and neither has really done anything offensively to separate themselves. There is also the catching spot on the taxi squad to think about but Joe Hudson could potentially fit better there. For a position where the starter is a lock, they sure have enough pieces to make it interesting.

Question of the Week

No question this week, just shameless self promotion. I really would love for you to check out the new podcast and let me know what you think, either on our site, in DK’s Asylum or social media. Have a great evening everyone and lets go Bucs!

The Next Man Up: A Cautionary Tale

For many Pirates Fans Blake Cederlind burst on to the scene during last year’s Spring Training with his K-struts and flowing golden locks, earning the nickname Baby Thor along the way. He was young and exciting, energetic and passionate; bringing everyone along with him, including his teammates, before he was abruptly, but understandably, optioned to the Minor League camp three days before shutdown as he had only pitched a handful of times for the AAA-Indianapolis Indians in 2019. At the time it was assumed his opportunity would eventually come during the upcoming season, when and if it actually took place.

As plans were being made to restart the process toward the end of July, Cederlind found himself assigned the Alternate Site in Altoona, until the young flamethrower was finally called upon to take the mound five times to close out 2020; including the last out for the Pirates via a groundout by Francisco Lindor. It was small cup of coffee for someone with such a large persona, but for those who had seen him pitch, they knew it more than likely wouldn’t be the last sip. This belief especially rang true for a select few that had been following his professional career for a slightly longer period of time.

Being a junkie of prospects, especially when it comes to the Pirates, my exposure to the former Blue Devil and lifetime JUCO Bandit took place a little bit sooner. Back in 2018, during my family’s annual trek to Florida at the beginning of August, we took in a Bradenton Marauders game as we often do; this time at LECOM Park. I could try spinning you a web about how Cederlind was the reason for this outing, but I am pretty sure this would be easily unraveled by just glimpsing at the roster for second. In actuality it was outfielder Jared Oliva that myself and my brood of young Bucco Fans came to see, and Baby Thor, as he would come to be known, ended up being the icing on the cake.

By the top of the ninth the kids were getting restless, everyone was drenched in sweat from the August heat and some of us might have had too many $1 drafts on a Thirsty Thursday. Nevertheless, we stuck around until the end of the game like we always did, so the kids could get autographs on the baseballs they had shagged off of bats or from players. At that moment a 6’4” righty took the mound, throwing harder than any pitcher who put his foot on the rubber that day. Twenty pitches, a ground out and two strikeouts later it was on to the bottom half of the inning and an eventual 10-3 loss for the Marauders, however, I was left with an impression of a pitcher I couldn’t wait to see in Altoona the following year.

Unfortunately in my two trips to People’s Natural Gas Field that year, Cederlind did not make an appearance, but it didn’t mean I couldn’t keep an eye on his progress; eventually writing about his rise to Altoona, Indianapolis and ultimately the Arizona Fall League at my previous gig at a now defunct site in December of 2019. Needless to say I have been as excited and optimistic as anyone when it comes to Cederlind’s potential role in the Pirates bullpen moving forward, which hit a speed bump, as we all know by now, just the other day when he was placed on the 60 Day IL with a UCL strain after less than three innings of work in Spring Training.

Prior to this set back Cederlind had been marked by many as the closer of the future, with the possibility of that happening by the end of the season if Richard Rodriguez were to moved prior to then; and to some this would take place even if he wasn’t due to the abilities of the young flamethrower.

All too often we as fans make these leaps in our minds, only to be disappointed if it doesn’t happen for one reason or another. For prospects there are so many sets of circumstances that could befall a promising career, and sometimes there is no one to back them up or a plan for replacement. So, we must be cautious who we dub as the next closer of future or next name your position of the future because there is so much uncertainty in this game and even we we think we have it all planned out, it is always in danger of changing.

Fundamental Improvement Directly Affects Perception

Look everyone, you don’t need to be Peter Gammons to understand what the Pirates have and don’t have. You needn’t be a season ticket holder for the past 30 years to know what’s missing or at least lacking. Those things are still going to be here and until such a time as the team is populated with even more talent they’ll remain.

Now, that doesn’t mean this team can’t improve on some things they can control. They can run the bases well. They can flash the leather. The hitters can take a more consistent approach at the plate.

The fundamentals of baseball don’t change no matter what team you play for, no matter how good or bad the overall team is.

The Pirates could be a weird kind of outlier this year. How often do you watch a bad baseball team that plays good defense? That’s exactly what I think we’re in for in 2021, and it’s at the very least an oddity.

In fact I have to think all the way back to the early part of last decade when the Pirates had a really good infield defense and a young Andrew McCutchen patrolling Center.

Look at how this club is built right now.

Catcher Jacob Stallings is a gold glove candidate, in fact he’s often referred to as one of the very best defensive catchers in the league. Tony Wolters his presumed backup and his competition Perez are both extremely capable too.

Third base has this kid you might not have heard about Ke’Bryan Hayes. His range will not only lock down third base, but also cut down on the amount of territory the short stop needs to cover. When he needs a rest, the veteran and extremely capable Todd Frazier will patrol the hot corner. Might be good on those rest days to work in Gonzalez at short.

Short stop itself will either be Kevin Newman, who’ll get the balls he should. Honestly, he’ll probably get this position because of his bat, but that doesn’t mean he can’t play the field. Range and arm strength are where he comes up a bit short at the position, but again, Hayes will minimize that a bit with his own strengths. Erik Gonzalez is legitimately a terrific fielder and when he spells Newman, it just gets that much better. Still holding out hope for Tucker, ok, defensively he too is a wiz.

Second base for right now is Adam Frazier. 2 time gold glove finalist Adam Frazier. When and if he isn’t here anymore, Newman slides over and presumably performs at least comparably to how he did at short. Gonzalez can also hold down this spot capably if not being overkill for the demands.

First base will be better because Moran is better than any we’ve had here since Justin Morneau. OK, maybe Osuna, but I figured I’d reference a guy who actually played. As with third, the very capable Todd Frazier will step right in.

That’s a whole lot of defensive talent right around the mound, and that’s a good thing.

How about the outfield?

Well, Reynolds showed last season even while struggling mightily at the dish, he can go get it in the outfield, patrolling the vast left field of PNC capably. What shocked most of us was the arm. Literally not one scouting report had him listed as a plus arm on his way up, and maybe that’s still true, but results matter too, He racked up assists last year and rightly scared opponents into sticking with singles or staying put at third.

Center looks to be a combination effort, but Anthony Alford plays the position with no fear. At some point that will lead to a misjudgment that looks messy but it’ll also lead to some gap balls being brought in. His speed and for that matter Goodwin and Fowler’s speed will cut the acres deep gaps in PNC down and ultimately make Polanco look better out in right.

And yes, we must also discuss Polanco. I know that gif is cute and I still laugh whenever I see it, but that stumbling giraffe as a friend of mine calls him isn’t the norm. He gets to most balls hit his way. The arm isn’t going to scare anyone from stretching a single and in the past his range has been a real issue. The extra speed in center should help a bit.

Hey, 7 or 8 for 9 isn’t a bad thing in baseball.

This team should be pretty good in the field. Meaning if the pitchers keep the ball in the ballpark, more contact should become an out.

It’s just spring but that’s what we’ve seen so far. No cheap doubles. Double plays that might not have come together now are. Fly balls get caught when hang time is involved. It’s been a pleasant surprise, and if nothing else makes them look professional. There were quite a few moments last year where that wasn’t an easy thing to say you observed.

It also feels disingenuous as hell to acknowledge how much better they look defensively without mentioning none of the players I just mentioned are new here and it’s pretty rare to put a subpar unit back together and expect different results, but coaching matters and perhaps some of that was lacking in 2020, after all they too were rookies.

Maybe the best way to put it is, this, they have what on paper and early results say should be a strong defense. If that holds up, they’ll at least look more like a baseball team that isn’t in neutral.

Concerned About Keller

Three days after the Pittsburgh Pirates season opens at Wrigley Field on April 1st former top prospect in the organization, who reached as high as 14th overall in MLB back in 2018, Mitch Keller will turn 25 years old. Thus far in his big league career Keller has started 16 games over the past two years, thanks in part to the yo-yo effect between the AAA-Indianapolis Indians and Pittsburgh in 2019, along with an oblique injury during a truncated 2020.

As I have written about previously, the young right hander has been an analytical enigma during this time, with his ERA and FIP consistently played tricks on one another. In 2019 he posted a 7.13 ERA while his FIP sat nicely at 3.19. It was the exact opposite last year as he finished with a solid 2.91 ERA, but saw his FIP rise to 6.75. In trying to provide an explanation for the flip flop some pointed to his drop in velocity, whereas others noticed a slight struggle with command; and if I am being completely honest it is most likely a combination of the two.

During his rookie season the strikeouts he had become known for toward the end of his time in the Minors came with him as he put up a 12.19 K/9. However, unfortunately, his walk rate also came with him at 3.00 BB/9, so anytime he gave up a hit the runs were sure to follow. Some of this could be chalked up to bad luck due to the unusually high .475 BABIP, which bottomed out in 2020; landing at .104. Still the major issue once again was the walks, which rocketed up to 7.48 BB/9; hence the concerns about command. Only this time the swing and miss wasn’t there to totally rescue him as it fell to 6.65 K/9, while his velocity dropped by as much as 3 mph on his curve and 1.5 mph on an average fastball; causing at least his slider to become a well below average pitch.

So, it was no surprise that as Spring Training began some were actively tracking where his velocity was sitting at to judge whether or not he was off to a good start, aiming for that 95 on his fastball as a gauge.

Although these numbers obviously don’t tell the whole story, taking into consideration that one of his 97 mph fastballs bounced into the catcher and he finished Thursday’s outing with a four pitch walk in the bottom of the third; ending his day on 48 pitches, as he was set to max out with 50. This clearly wasn’t ideal, yet as you can imagine I am not ready to throw in the towel after only three innings.

Now if we are having the same discussion a month or so into the season, where Keller is nearing 50 pitches with no outs in the third, we can revisit these concerns that some may have after two starts in Spring Training.

More Depth, Trevor Cahill is Added to the Mix

Late last evening news broke that the Pirates had inked Trevor Cahill to a one year deal worth 1.5 million dollars plus up to 1 million in performance bonuses.

Let’s be clear here before I dig in, I’m not a huge fan of this signing. It’s not that I have any personal dislike for Mr. Cahill, it’s more just not understanding where he fits and who he causes to not make the club.

That’s my initial take, this is not a needed move, and even if I manage to make sense of it while I write this out I figured I should just be up front about how this struck me initially.

So let’s dig in and see everything this does and how it effects my feeling on the move.

Can Cahill Still Help?

I mean, sure he could. He’s a career 11.6 WAR player and last year in the shortened season with San Francisco he put up pretty strong numbers splitting time in the bullpen and starting, producing a .5 WAR and a WHIP of 1.200. That’s not even close to bad.

Yeah, Trevor can still help. I happen to see him doing more in the pen than in the rotation, especially since he just signed and after going through protocols will most likely only get an outing or two before the team heads north.

He’s been for the most part a bullpen arm with spot starting capability since 2013, assuming that’s the role he’s asked to fill here in Pittsburgh, it’s hard to say this wouldn’t benefit the club in any way, and that’s not pretending he’ll replicate his numbers from 2020. His overall picture and abilities make him a viable upgrade possibility over some of the Pirates current options.

Who Does This Block?

Well, block is a strong word. First thing to keep in mind is that they’ll need a ton of pitchers from AAA as this season progresses. It will at least make it hard to envision some players making the club out of camp though.

As good as he’s been, Miguel Yajure probably just lost his path. He had an outside chance at landing in the Bullpen as a long man or possibly the 5th starter, but I can’t see that now. Wil Crowe is another who will almost assuredly start in AAA. Potentially even JT Brubaker who in my eyes more than proved himself last season could be a casualty.

Those are the starters. Now let’s head to the pen where I really think he’ll live. It’s best here to start with talking about who they have options with and what this could mean.

OK, so Luis Oviedo has to make the club. He is, as you might remember, the rule five draft selection the Mets made and the Pirates traded to acquire. That’s a lock if he’s healthy.

Duane Underwood Jr. has no options and will almost surely make the club. I say that because clearly the Pirates were worried other teams were in on him or they wouldn’t have traded for him, they would have picked him up off the waiver wire. See the Pirates were in the first position to get it done but they must have not believed he’d get there without someone dealing for him first.

Chris Stratton and Michael Feliz have no options and will probably make the club, I’d expound here but you know these guys.

David Bednar has 2 options, but man I don’t know how you could send him down and pretend in any way the best you have made it.

Chasen Shreve is an NRI so the team would have to clear a 40-man spot for him to make the club, but based on his numbers last season and his experience it’s hard to see him not making it.

Richard Rodriguez has 3 options, but he’s not going anywhere (well, not within the organization anyway)

Kyle Crick has one option left and this one my friends is the most likely I see as a direct slot swap for Cahill.

Did I leave out some names you thought had a real chance or even a strangle hold on a position? Edgar Santana comes to mind. Cody Ponce, Clay Holmes, Sam Howard, Geoff Hartlieb. I mean, I get it, depth. But I can’t get past the feeling that this effort to add to the depth has also created a situation where the best the Pirates have to offer isn’t going to make the club right out of camp.

I’ve also heard the possibility of piggybacking quite a bit, and they certainly employed that last season a bit, but piggybacking also eats arms that hold a spot in the pen that you can’t use. So if the plan is Brault/Cahill and Kuhl/Brubaker or whatever combination you’re envisioning, that’s two spots in the pen that just sit there. It’s like having a 7 man rotation with six relievers, which you can obviously see becoming unsustainable. Bottom line, if this is the plan, it won’t be for long.

Maybe This is Foreshadowing for a Trade or Two

Sure, that’s a possibility. We’ve all heard Richard Rodriguez and Chris Stratton mentioned all the way back to last season as trade chips, and that could certainly happen. It doesn’t matter that there have been no rumors of note, these are rather low level relievers, you’re not going to hear Jon Heyman talking any of them into a move to LA.

We certainly know that moves will still be coming, so I can’t discount the possibility something is in the works although I will say, if they were actively talking I’m not sure we see any of them pitch and we have, so I don’t think anything is imminent.

Still, when they do, they’ll have a very nice safety net in the minors waiting.

So Where Did I Land?

I still feel it wasn’t needed. I’d be much more comfortable if this was an AAA signing, but I recognize holding out for that is probably why this signing just happened on March 11th.

If they can manage to work him in without it altering the path of Brubaker in particular, I’m more ok with it, but honestly, I’d much prefer watching Wil Crowe or Miguel Yajure do what Trevor will most likely be tasked with.

It makes sense that they’d want more depth, it really does. We all complained last season as we watched the club parade the likes of Miguel Del Pozo and Dovydas Neverauskas to the mound to repeatedly get their brains beat in, so it’s hard to complain when they seemingly add too many pitchers to the mix.

Moves like these happen all over the league every season and I’d imagine the fans spend more time looking at the player just signed than the fallout the signing causes, but this is Pittsburgh, we don’t see things like this. At least we haven’t, until now.

All in all, any reaction positive or negative to this move by me or anyone else for that matter is probably an overreaction if we’re honest. Because Trevor Cahill simply isn’t an impact player, he’s depth, depth that happens to have to make the club instead of waiting in the wings.

Pirates Optimism and Realism Coexist

Excited about some of what you’ve seen in Spring so far? You’re not alone. Underwhelmed by all of it because it’s just Spring ball and you’re sticking to your original perception, you too aren’t alone.

The thing is, you don’t have to be 100% in either camp believe it or not, because grey areas exist out there in the world. Many of us have simply forgotten that we’re allowed to have thoughts that cross spectrums.

The most common question I get, and I suspect most writers for that matter, is what is the Pirates Record going to be this year. The easy answer is they’ll probably lose 90-100 games and we should focus on individual growth of the players that will be here when the team is officially on the upswing.

See, even if you’re optimistic, you have to keep in mind somewhere in the back of your mind that this team could overperform all April and May and the team should still probably look to move more players running thin on control. Moran, Gonzalez, Brault, Kuhl, Anderson, Goodwin, both Frazier’s and several bullpen arms could all be gone by the deadline.

If you believe in the plan, you don’t change it because you had some success.

For some, that’s going to confirm for them that this management team is no different than the last. For others it will instead signify that this management team isn’t delusional about where they are and the plan remains in effect.

In the past you could put the blame for this dichotomy squarely on the front office. They never treated us as reasoning, thinking fans who had the ability to absorb bad news or understand the complexities of modern team building.

Some of us can’t deal in general. Knowing that some of those players I mentioned could very well be on the move is met with cries that Bob wanted them to cut payroll further or that the Pirates are AAA for the league. The fact that it’s part of a pretty overtly stated plan doesn’t really resonate and we shouldn’t expect it to. When and if they win when they’re done building, the management will either be proven right or wrong.

When people predict the Pirates will lose 120 games even as you’re watching them pound the ball all over the yard in Spring it can be frustrating, but in your heart of hearts you know they might be right if the Bucs do indeed move a bunch of guys.

If you want optimism soaked in reality, try thinking about Kuhl and Brault being moved and instead of being replaced by two waiver claims, having Yajure and Crowe step in to a spot they almost won on merit in the first place. Instead of two starters entering their last year of control, you now have two with higher upside stepping in with 5 years each.

I can say, I don’t see this as a team that will only win 60 games, but I have to keep in mind this isn’t the team I’ll be watching all season if things go according to plan.

This roster is better constructed than it has been since 2017. Fewer stars, more depth. But this isn’t the stopping point. It’s hard to accept at times that even after all the moves that were made, the club isn’t done, but they aren’t.

I’m happy to see them performing well, it’s a whole lot more fun than the alternative, but don’t lose sight of the plan, and most importantly, don’t get baited into an argument about how many games they’ll win or lose because the team you’re defending fiercely is probably not representative of the team you’ll see here in August.

All that being said, part of the job for this team is to improve the players that are already here. So if you’ve already written a young player like Kevin Newman off because analytics guys told you he stunk, yeah, maybe there’s a guy who could work his way into being part of the story as we move forward. Maybe Brian Goodwin performs well and they see more value in keeping him around for a season or two than moving him for a top 30 guy. We also shouldn’t pretend there is no room for variables.

That’s the spice of life, and the fun of a baseball team. I keep talking about enjoying the journey, and I stress it again today because let’s face facts, even if they do everything perfectly and Bob spends money as Cherington and Williams have put forward, the destination of championship isn’t going to be something that happens annually.

I love the game, and I’m tied to this team. I’ve watched them stink and play really well. I’ve never seen them undertake (fully) the type of build they’ve started here and I openly rooted for it, I’m certainly not going to instead hope they stop short.

Enjoy it for what it is, a relatively young baseball team with more upside than we’re used to coming up quick.