What Have We Learned So Far?

I just wrote a piece a couple days back about exactly how hard it is to trust numbers or results from Spring games, but we also touched on some of the nuggets that are there outside the stats. Today I’d like to put a few of those observations down on, ha, screen I guess, I was totally gonna write paper.

I feel like I could go on all day so let’s go with 9 for the 9 games they’ve played.

1. Different Strokes for Different Folks

Certainly there are outliers, but for this many of the sticks to be seeing the ball this early you almost have to look to Rick Eckstein for executing the instruction plan. Everyone has their individual swing profiles but you can see small adjustments for almost every player and the general approach is leading to much more consistent contact.

It’s impressive to see that straight through approach pay off. For a team with little in the power department, that kind of approach will draw effectiveness out of players a whole lot faster than preaching launch angle. Encouraging start.

And yes, I get that the pitchers could be working on stuff, Look at Atlanta yesterday, C’mon, you think Ozuna was stumped all day cause he’s tuned in? Credit where due, its a good start.

2. Investments for Later

There have been quite a few performances by players who have very little chance of making this team out of camp, but the club won’t forget them when they need reinforcements from Indianapolis or the Training Site.

Let’s start with Troy Stokes Jr. who has done nothing but play clean defense and make consistent hard contact from the jump. He almost surely won’t make the club, but what a nice player to stash in AAA.

Joe Hudson has stung the ball this year thus far, and he is probably choice number four to backstop this club. Depth at the catching position was a big issue for the past handful of seasons, it’s nice to be sitting on 4 qualified catchers who could hold their own if called upon.

3. Todd Frazier Can Really Pick It

Age has changed Todd Frazier as it does every player, but the 35 year old elder statesman of the club has shown he is more than capable of not only filling in at first base but can really play there and third with expert level slickness. Certainly nice to have that in your back pocket on the bench.

Many will focus on what Todd can bring back to the club in a trade, but we shouldn’t ignore what he can and will bring to the club on the daily. He’ll make more news for the home runs he hits but without his defense it would make the decision to get him at bats more difficult.

4. Ke’Bryan Hayes is No Joke

The hype is rarely warranted, but Ke’Bryan isn’t just lucking into wind blown doubles or covering the plate to accumulate singles. No, Ke’ is absolutely pounding the ball with authority to all fields. Last season he was only shifted (to an extreme level) two times, and if he continues to hit like this that’s exactly how defenses will continue to set up for his at bats.

By taking an approach that hitting the ball hard is more important than hunting homeruns he’ll actually take an arrow out of the quiver opponents have to protect themselves. The most difficult thing he could face in 2021 could be facing nothing hittable due to lacking protection in the lineup, that’s one thing that can’t and won’t be simulated in Spring Training. He’s shown he’ll take his walks, but at some point the pressure to perform tends to get everyone.

Point is, believing in this kid is not insane, he’s that good.

5. Kevin Newman Has a New Approach

We talked earlier about the hitters having a universal new focus and brought down to the individual with mechanical changes. Kevin has changed the positioning of his hands and is standing up a bit straighter. It’s allowing him to get more power in his swing and thus making contact more meaningful.

Analytics wonks will tell you what Newman put on the back of his card in 2019 wasn’t sustainable, and they’re completely correct. His peripherals spoke to a lucky streak that should have sent him to Vegas in the off season. These changes are hunting change for one of those measurables in particular, hard hit rate.

It’s far too early in Spring to assume he’s a new man, but I can say while he’s racking up hits, these aren’t cheap stats, he’s stroking the ball, and potentially changing the narrative.

6. Blake Cederlind Needs a Minute

Cederlind is the most logical choice for “future closer” but he hasn’t exactly impressed yet here in the early going. Oh, he’s still got a scary and often triple digit fastball but he’s also spraying the ball all over the place. That will need to be tightened up a bit.

Derek Shelton even made a comment that he wished Blake had his formerly signature blonde hair back by way of supposing the Sampson effect was in full force. Dejan Kovacevic reported watching him throw live batting practice where hitters would simply put the bat on their shoulder knowing they wouldn’t see a hittable ball.

When he starts in AAA, let’s get out in front of this one and go ahead and say it’s not for manipulation of service time purposes.

Also, don’t panic, he’ll figure it out, he’s had these issues before, that’s why he wasn’t all over our radar prior to last season.

7. Miguel Yajure & Wil Crowe Will Both Pitch in MLB this Year

Both pitchers have looked very much so capable of taking the ball in a regular spot. Yajure is throwing 4 distinct pitches and placing them like he’s walking them to the catcher. We all know that the Pirates aren’t done wheeling and dealing, as we enter the season Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Adam Frazier and potentially Colin Moran are all in position to get some teams interested which would make room for players like this to get their day in the sun, and we haven’t even mentioned injury as a vehicle for promotion.

Almost all the trades made this off season were to bring in young, high ceiling guys, but these two will both contribute quickly. Toss in Cody Ponce and the Pirates have at least 3 pitchers who could certainly help when needed.

8. Bryan Reynolds is Close

He’s fought through 2020 and you could see it on his face. This year so far he’s taking his walks and squaring up the ball when the pitcher brings it into the zone. If that sounds familiar, it should, that’s 2019 Bryan Reynolds. Now, this doesn’t mean he’ll hit over .300 but it does mean I think we can expect to see more of what we did in 2019.

He’s too good a player to have assumed he wouldn’t rebound but it’s still comforting to see him put it into practice. He’s still suffered from getting little to no help from the blue on borderline calls, all of which seemed to go his way in his rookie campaign, but reputation will help with that over time.

Next question is, who protects him in the lineup? It’s either Moran or Hayes in my mind and will directly affect how often he is pitched around.

9. The Pirates Will Have to Cross Their Fingers and Waive

Toward the end of Spring as the Pirates get closer to making final decisions on the roster it’s going to be almost impossible to not lose some players to the Waiver Wire. That is, if they intend to truly bring the best they have North. There is a path in which they would be able to avoid all that, but it might force them to start a player like Brian Goodwin in AAA using the fact he signed a minor league contract, or they can keep five outfielders. If not, they may need to hope Dustin Fowler or Anthony Alford could slide through.

This is just one example, the bullpen is riddled (no pun intended) with these types of scenarios. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle this and we shouldn’t discount how the construction of the 40-man roster will play in.

So, there you have it. Nine real observable things from a grand total of nine spring games that you can’t even count on having complete innings played. Fun Spring so far. Now hit me with some of your observations, let’s talk.

I Thought The Pirates Were Supposed To Be Stocking The System

Ever since Ben Cherington arrived on the scene as the Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager in November of 2019 he has preached some very similar sounding and typically intertwined organizational philosophies; among them stock piling talent throughout the system and creating competition at every level. Based on this information concerning how the Pirates plan on building a successful team in the future, my immediate reaction to sending first base prospect Shendrik Apostel to the Cubs for recently DFA’d pitcher Duane Underwood Jr. was completely confused. Not so much with the acquisition, but more about what the Pirates gave up in return.

Last April, when the Minor and Major League seasons were put on pause, I wrote about Apostel for one of my Through The Prosect Porthole articles, which is not something I do for just any player in the Pirates Farm System; I am actually pretty selective. After posting a .872 OPS, due in large part to an increased OBP of .421, while dropping his strike out rate from 29.1% to 16.8% and raising his walk rate from 10.8% to 19.6% in 2019 for the DSL Pirates1, I saw the potential of him starting the season at Pittsburgh’s former Advanced Rookie Level Affiliate in Bristol; and this year I was hopeful for a Low A assignment to Bradenton. However, that aspiration is long gone as the Cubs are now in charge of Apostel’s fate, which really makes me wonder even more and still leaves me perplexed.

Currently in the Pirates Farm System the options are somewhat limited in my opinion, as far as first base goes in the lower minors and power is something that is surely lacking from top to bottom. In High A, Will Matthiessen has shown promise and has the flexibility to move to the outfield as well; and below him, Apostel’s former teammate in the Dominican, Alexander Mojica is poised to make the move across the diamond from third to first. It is also possible that Ben Cherington and company see other options as first base is often a landing spot for players that can make it defensively at their natural positions, so the competition could grow naturally at some point, nevertheless, it isn’t exactly overflowing at this point.

Now, as I stated earlier, the decision at the Major League Level wasn’t as confusing, but that doesn’t mean their wasn’t any muddying of the waters in an already crowded bullpen. Underwood Jr. has no Minor League options left so I would assume the Pirates have the desire to see him make the big league club out of camp, but at what cost. The player he already replaced in the form of four time, twice with the Pirates, DFA’d former top prospect Carson Fulmer, has a similar skill set and comes with nearly the same pedigree; although Underwood’s projections are more promising, if that’s what you are into. However, beyond that it isn’t like there aren’t a number of those guys at the moment on the roster, including some with options. I also have a hard time believing there weren’t better or at least equal alternatives in the free agent market.

Where at least part of this move doesn’t totally defy logic is Underwood Jr.’s tie to fairly recently hired Director of Coaching and Development (aka Farm Director) John Baker, who had been with the Cubs as a special assistant in the baseball operations department; holding the titles mental skills coordinator and head applied mental skills coach since 2015. During this time it can safely be assumed their paths of crossed and that Baker has some insight into Underwood Jr.’s performance/usage, development, abilities and potential.

In spite of this, it doesn’t change my current stance on the trade, which continues to be cautiously pessimistic and confused based on the possible negative repercussions of such a move; where the upside doesn’t quite match the risk.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 3-8-21

We’re two weeks into Spring Games now and I think what has impressed me most is the consistent approach by the bats. Eckstein just said yesterday while they’re getting more hits to the opposite field, the coached up process behind it is a desire to hit the ball back up the middle. In other words, the coaches don’t want players trying to aim the ball because that causes mechanical alterations to the swing, instead they want a consistent back up the middle approach. A little late and it’ll go to the opposite field, a little early and they’ll pull it. This type of approach will help tame the extreme shifting they face for every at bat.

Coaching up what’s here right now, will make what’s coming that much better.

Now that I’ve cheated and given you a thought before I start the list, let’s dive in!

1. David Bednar is Leading the Closer Competition

If there is one at least. See I’m not convinced that the Pirates will name one. We may be in for a closer by committee and I honestly think that’s where baseball is headed. If you think about the extremes coaches go to in order to make sure the deck is stacked against hitters it’s kinda silly we’re still holding on to one guy having to pitch a certain inning. It’s great having a Josh Hader for the back end of the game but what if 3-4-5 is due up in the 8th, why would you not want him to pitch then? You know, your best vs their best. Rather than wait so he can pitch the magical 9th, perhaps he should go when he’ll be able to navigate the most dangerous part of the lineup.

Take away the label, and you take the ego stomp of being dropped from it out of the equation too. Maybe some night there are three lefties due up in the 9th and Shreve would be the best choice. Flexibility suits a bullpen well and at some point, we either believe in analytics or we don’t.

Of course, if you have a Mariano Rivera on your club I can see wanting to keep him there, but aside from the save stat, he could have done just as much good in the 8th. The other reason I feel this change needs to come is the number of times the closer isn’t reached because the lead was surrendered on the way there. Why would you want to build in an artificial wall that prevents your best bullpen arm from pitching? Time for the game to evolve here a bit in my opinion.

2. Pirates Acquire Duane Underwood Jr.

I already felt the Pirates bullpen situation was a bit congested, so enter yet another arm with no options. To grab Mr. Underwood from the Cubs the Pirates sent Shendrik Apostel, a DSL level First Base prospect in return.

My biggest question is why would the pitching starved Cubs send any pitcher of value out while they try to figure out what direction they want to head this year and beyond? Past that I have to ask, what are the Pirates seeing in their own bullpen that I’m missing? I don’t see this as an upgrade to any of the 11 or so I see being in competition for making the club. He certainly has a history of being a highly touted prospect, as high as number 4 just a couple years back, but in his 30 games of MLB experience stretching over the last 3 seasons he has a WHIP of 1.431. Excellent strikeout stuff, but he’s surrendered 40 hits in 36.1 Innings pitched and toss in 12 walks on top of that. Not good. We’ll see, but for right now I just can’t understand this move. It’s talent in of course, but they have no wiggle room, he either makes it or doesn’t. By the time he clears COVID protocols we’ll probably be into next week leaving only two weeks to show what he can do.

3. New Team, Same Topic

It was fun to see Jameson Taillon again facing the Pirates in Spring Training, and for me, an opportunity to see some of the chatter coming out of the Big Apple about our former Ace. I read 6 pieces about him (if you think Pittsburgh has a ton of coverage for the Pirates, check out the Yankees options) and every single one talked about the effort to keep him on the field. His entire delivery was broken down like the Zapruder film. He was compared to Roger Clemens and Lucas Giolito, but most of all, they spoke to the very real issue he’s had in his career, stress on his arm.

The goal is to turn him from a very talented pitcher who can’t stay healthy, into a very talented pitcher who uses his legs to remove stress from his arm. Less wind up, same shove. Tall ask to change a delivery and rewrite 10 years of history, but make no mistake, this is exactly what the Pirates would have had to attempt as well.

I wish him nothing but luck and success but I remember the last time he came back with a new delivery designed to prevent the same thing from happening. At some point what makes him successful, makes him fragile. Fingers crossed, cause he’s a really great guy.

4. Stop With the Draft Nonsense

Teams in MLB don’t go out of their way to get the number one overall pick. Lots of reasons, but the biggest is probably that it’s almost just as hard as trying to win enough to get the Wild Card. A top 5 pick is 9 times out of ten going to be just as valuable as the number one. Relax, and at least realize teams just don’t think like this. The Pirates aren’t brilliant for having the worst record in 2020, in fact if they didn’t suffer catastrophic losses to injury they almost assuredly don’t get there. In other words it certainly wasn’t the plan. Looking at the early draft board I’d take any of the top 4 happily. So would every team in MLB. So if and when the Pirates aren’t the clear basement dweller of the entire league, (they won’t be) please chill and realize they aren’t screwing up the “plan”. Of all the insufferable stupidity out there this is possibly my least tolerable.

5. El Coffee is Steaming

He’s looked good this Spring. Still striking out, but the ball comes off his bat like few in the league when he does make contact. Therein lies the rub however. I’m not writing this so you change your opinion on Greg, but I am saying it’s not a foregone conclusion that he’s just going to be some lump out there. A hot start still might not be enough to get another team interested in acquiring him, but if he puts up solid numbers this season the Pirates will be faced with a decision that is sure to be unpopular regardless of which way they go. They’re either the cheap bastards who paid the out clause to cut ties with a guy who led the team in HRs or the guys who were too inept to get a deal done for his services.

Polanco is a cautionary tale about the dangers of early career extension. When they work out, they provide fuel for your franchise for the best part of a decade, when they don’t, they’re an albatross that prevent you from making smart decisions. That’s not to say they shouldn’t do it again with another player, it’s instead to say, choose wisely.

Question of the Week

This week’s question comes from a new friend on Twitter.

First of all, thanks for reading.

Ji-Hwan Bae shouldn’t sneak up on anyone, he’s not just fast, he’s elite fast. Plays great defense and can handle the stick and because of what the Pirates have coming along in the pipeline, paired with who happens to already be here at middle infield he often gets glazed right over. There is no reason Bae shouldn’t wind up being a very solid MLB player. The biggest issue really might be that speed on the base paths matters less than ever in MLB, but his ability should give him flexibility to play elsewhere should competition dictate others can handle his positions better. He already has some experience in the outfield so it’s not something the club hasn’t recognized.

De Jong was signed to a minor league deal and because of the players the Bucs would have to jettison because of no options or 40-man concerns I believe he will remain a minor league arm at least to start the season. We’ve only seen one outing from him and he looked good, but I see no viable path to him being on the 26 man come opening day. Depth like this is crucial though to avoid the waiver wire hell the Pirates caught themselves in last season. De Jong is no different from a Sean Poppen or even Carson Fulmer before he was yet again DFA’d yesterday after having his own decent outing. Depth, depth, depth.

Taking Real Nuggets from Fake Games

Depending on your narrative you can take the paint that is Spring Training games and create just about whatever picture you want to. So how can you tell the difference between real player progress and taking advantage of players working on something?

First of all, ignore the scores entirely. Just yesterday the Pirates scored 13 runs and had one inning shut down or “rolled over” while they had runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. So they truly could have scored even more.

MLB has changed the way Spring Training is executed and I get it, but as soon as you play games with, well, the game, it becomes very difficult to take anything real from the scores.

Oh I still enjoyed the hell out of it, it’s been forever since I watched the Pirates in any form beat the tar out of an opponent. That said, you’d hardly call this club a juggernaut because they just laid 13 on the real worst team in MLB this year in a meaningless Spring game.

How about pitching? Can we take anything from how the pitchers perform? I mean I’ve heard we can’t because the pitchers are all working on different things and aren’t trying to pitch like they would in a game. For instance, the goal in a particular game might be to work on the curveball, specifically the control aspect of the pitch. So the pitcher might throw 3 or 4 curveballs in a row and the last one gets hammered into the wind for a homerun. So, how can we tell what’s worthy of note?

The simple answer is, just about everything needs to be viewed a bit sideways. For instance, Kyle Crick had up until yesterday not ticked his fastball above 92 MPH, a huge issue for his chances of making the club. He needs to be able to pop that velo at 94-96 to get the slider to play. In yesterday’s contest he hit 94 for the first time this Spring and after the contest we heard that the coaching staff intentionally told him to not go full bore in his first two outings.

So, what was a story (his low velo) is not just doing what the coaches told him to do. Even if he never hits 94 again this Spring, we can no longer say he isn’t capable of it. We can still feel he’s ultimately an ineffective pitcher, but this is just one example of when Spring is just Spring.

Now what about something positive like the way Ke’Bryan Hayes has beat the bejesus out of the ball from the first game of Spring? Well, while it is true he is facing pitchers who could very well be working on something it’s also worth noting that Key isn’t just hitting fat fastballs, he’s taking all kinds of pitches, to all parts of the ballpark and doing it with authority. In other words, even if the pitchers are working on something, it’s not like they told Key before he stepped in the batter’s box, and he isn’t missing.

What this results in for me, is a general feeling that Hayes is ready, and the way he hit the ball wasn’t a fluke in 2020. But, you probably won’t see me quoting his batting average.

Adam Frazier made his debut in yesterday’s game and performed well, do we just ignore that or accept it for what it is? Adam saw 7 different pitch types during his at bats in the contest and he performed. One of his hits came against a player who most assuredly won’t be an Oriole on April 1st, and one came off their closest approximation to an ace.

The reason Spring stats are so suspect didn’t just start with MLB jerking the rules around for 2021, but if you have evaluated Spring stats for any length of time it also hasn’t changed much for you.

How about Bryan Reynolds, he’s batting .250 so far, time to panic right? Not really, he’s making good contact and he’s drawn 3 walks to go along with his two hits. This is the balance that Reynolds lost last year. Part of what makes him such a good hitter is his ability to spit on bad pitches until he sees something he likes. When he’s really on he has some Wade Boggs in him, meaning he’ll foul off perfectly good pitches trying to get to one he really wants to hammer or, he’ll take his walk. That’s what we’ve seen so far this Spring.

The stat line isn’t sexy, yet. Get to July 4th with an OBP of .455 and see how people talk about him though.

The point is, in Spring, take every stat with a grain of salt and consider at least that something funky could be going on before deciding someone is a bum or superstar.

The Road to Respectability

On the path from league worst to contender rarely does a franchise in baseball leap from worst to first, the Pirates will certainly be no different in that regard, but respectability is in sight.

Now, what do I mean when I say respectability? I have to define it because everyone has their own definition of what that word looks like in practice. For some this means playing meaningful baseball in September, for others it could simply mean never cheating the fans for effort. In this instance, for this club, what I mean by respectability is being in more games than not. Less 1-8 shellacking and more 2-3 nail biters with a few more squeaked out wins in the mix too.

Maybe you’re a loss is a loss guy or gal, hey, normally I am too. For where the Pirates are in this process though, it’s very hard to put too much weight on wins. They are very much so in a talent valley of their own making.

That’s not to say they have no talent, it is instead to illustrate that incremental improvement is a thing, and it also is a healthy expectation.

Even after moving out the talent they did this off season, I just can’t find a way to convince myself this roster got precipitously worse. The positions all over the field are deeper, the pitching depth is leaps and bounds deeper. Maybe the ceiling isn’t as high, but ceiling is all about potential anyway, not performance.

I expect the bullpen to keep this team in more games late, and I expect some players with pedigree to return to closer representatives of their talent level.

No, I’m not sitting here trying to tell you St. Louis better watch their backs. But I am saying if they roll into Pittsburgh thinking a sweep is inevitable they might get punched in the mouth.

It’s too early to really sit back and take in the team as a whole and predict anything definitively, but the fact I can’t pin down the 26 man roster, at least 25 of them with an open question or two, speaks to the overall improvement to the depth of the 40-man and beyond.

This isn’t pining for Cruz to make the club out of camp or Swaggerty to get it and patrol CF to make the next generation start early, it’s simply looking at what they have in house and knowing right now good players won’t make this team. And it won’t be for service time manipulation or money, it’ll be because better choices did make it.

And that is a thing I haven’t seen here in Pittsburgh for quite some time. Again, I think the ceiling is lower, the ifs this year aren’t “well if Bell hits 35” or “I think Joe is gonna step up”, instead the ifs are more like “if Chad Kuhl can’t pitch past the fifth which of the 4 viable options do they go to”.

It’s a small difference, but to me it means a much more even and steady club. One that has less likelihood to simply crater at the first sign of injury trouble. Certainly there are players they won’t do without well, like Reynolds, Hayes, Keller, but a few players going down outside that group won’t cause disaster because of the depth and options.

Let’s take Catcher. Last year if Jake were to go down the club would have been left with Susak and Murphy. This year they have a damn near defensive equivalent in Tony Wolters and a Perez who can also handle the leather. It’d be a drop off, but that’s the very definition of back up. It also wouldn’t be a nightmare that sends Ben Cherington to the waiver wire.

The outfield holds the deepest questions as to qualified backups but there too, the Pirates have brought in some options that could steady the ship and get through a moderate injury.

I guess what I’m saying is, this roster doesn’t look the same as last year, and I’m ready to stop pretending they will somehow be even worse than 2020’s worst club.

Now, if nothing matters until they’re in a playoff hunt, cool, they aren’t there yet. If you’re expectations are a bit more down to earth, you might just be pleasantly surprised.

Some Decisions Just Make too Much Sense

The Pirates are promoting competition all over the diamond, and that’s great, but if we’re honest, most of these competitions have a logical outcome and it’ll take some pretty stellar performances to change the landing spots.

I’m all for the environment the club is creating, but we also need to keep our eyes on what makes sense beyond right now.

So let’s take these battles one by one, assess the situation and talk through them.

Center Field

Interesting spot here. There are two players who will absolutely make this club. Bryan Reynolds, and Gregory Polanco. After that you can assume the club will keep two or three more and that will come from the group of Anthony Alford, Brian Goodwin and Dustin Fowler.

I’m taking Jared Oliva off this list, if only because he has options, and I think the club has made it pretty clear with the acquisitions of Goodwin and Fowler that they aren’t comfortable with what they had in house.

Alford still is dealing with his arm recovering from surgery he underwent last season. But he’s been able to hit, and he’s shown some power too, which on this club might be like me catching a shot of Bigfoot from my back deck.

4 outfielders might be necessary should the club decide they need an extra utility guy or want to go with 14 pitchers rather than 13.

The big problem here is between those 3 players I mentioned, only Goodwin could start in AAA without the risk of losing him, but he also represents the most experienced by far.

Short Stop

The Pirates can make this an open competition all they like, but Kevin Newman is making the decision easy. He’s the one that really needed to win this spot and he’s actively doing that. Cole Tucker was nicked up early and while he’ll be back and still has a chance, I truly believe he is less likely to make this club than any of the outfielders I just mentioned.

This battle was supposed to be a three man battle with Newman, Tucker and Gonzalez. Since the club already said there is nothing to be learned from watching Gonzalez play there, in other words, they know he’s good at the position, it was really going to be Newman and Tucker, and make no mistake, Newman will win this spot, primarily with his bat. He’ll ultimately wind up being a second baseman I believe but for this spring, with these circumstances, he’ll come out of it as the starting short stop.

They have a lot of infield depth as rosters trim it might be tough to make a spot for Tucker. The very best way to assure all three of them make the club would be to move Adam Frazier, but he too is being held out of competition with a nagging injury.

We may not get to see them physically battle for this spot, but someone winning it with their bat was always going to happen.

First Base

This isn’t a battle. Todd Frazier can hit 35 homeruns this Spring and Colin Moran will still be the starter. Todd isn’t at the stage of is career where he can play 5 games a week for any stretch of time. Sure he could get you through a 10 day IL spot or even take a week while Colin slumps but he needs to be used in moderation.

Additionally, Todd Frazier won’t be here, possibly past July, while Colin has two more years after this. He too could get traded, but that takes playing time to pull off.

Also, if Frazier makes the club he’ll be the logical backup at third too, so he’ll play, just not as a starter.

You can toss Phil Evans in there as competition, but he’s going to struggle to make it. The club would have to have an injury and/or move a player out to grease the skids here. My dark horse for super utility man is Wilmer Difo. He can do just about anything in the field and relatively well.

Either way, don’t fool yourself, Colin Moran would have to break his hand to not start.

David Bednar – More Than a Throw In

Almost every move Ben Cherington made when moving veterans off the club was solely in exchange for very young, very talented prospect capital. So when the Pirates presented the deal they finalized with San Diego and the New York Mets somehow the ready for MLB David Bednar almost seemed like a toss in.

Then we started looking into the players deeper and most stopped at “local kid” as the interesting part of Bednar’s story. After all, he only had 17 MLB games under his belt spread out over 2019-2020 and his stats weren’t eye popping.

We looked into his peripherals and the best way to describe him was quite possibly, a guy with a live arm, who struggled to control it. He could help one day, and he has enough team control that he has time to figure it out. In fact, I’m down on Kyle Crick right now, but that’s who he reminded me of, because Mr. Crick had all the same issues. Live arm, couldn’t control it. Unfortunately, that is no longer Kyle’s plight.

Then we got to see him pitch this Spring and man, it’s tough not to be impressed.

Here’s a guy hitting 97-98 with the four seam fastball, dropping curveballs on the corner and mystifying batters with his splitfinger.

He’s faced all of 6 hitters this Spring and not one has looked like he had any semblance of balance at the plate. These weren’t AA players either, I mean anything you want to toss out there to speak to this being no big deal, is probably not invalid. We’re talking two Spring games after all.

What I do think we can take from this early performance is that David Bednar isn’t just someone who pitched at Mars High School and his acquisition wasn’t some PR stunt. This is a guy who has tools and the ability to really be an impact arm in this bullpen for years to come.

So what, they’ll still lose 110 games, I’m sure some of you are saying. Well, maybe. But nothing makes a team look more professional than pitching. The more quality you can put on the hill, the more likely you are to keep games tight. It might not change the overall record, but losing 8-1 vs 5-3 can somehow make you feel things are moving in the right direction.

Just last year this team led the league in 1-run losses. Probably more of a statistical anomaly than an indication that they were close, but when on any given night the Pirates had 1 or 2 arms they felt secure sending out in leverage situations, it’s pretty easy to envision how having another in the mix could really help and the Pirates Bullpen could just wind up being a strength this year.

As of right now, they don’t have anyone who jumps off the page and screams “closer” but what Bednar brings to the table certainly fits the mold of back end.

Most of these moves have been for the future, but it’s nice to see some of them could help both.

For more on Bednar’s background here’s a great piece from MLB.com about him and his family.

Hitting Pause On The Indianapolis Indians

Back on February, in preparation for the ever approaching Spring Training report dates and ultimately the hopeful beginning of the 2021 Major League Baseball season, the MLBPA and the powers that be from MLB came to an agreement on the health and safety protocols for 2021. After having brought their negotiations in front of fans once again over numerous weeks in a battle posed as universal DH in exchange for expanded playoffs, with a strongly worded letter from the Cactus League mixed in, both sides were able to reach a compromise with the most significant guidelines being addressed. However, as many focused on the 7 innings double headers and the runner on second to start extra innings, which most of us can agree is the one of the most asinine rules to be adopted by the game of baseball, the potential repercussions for Minor League Baseball; in particular AAA were often glassed over. I myself didn’t give the implications their just due until the Indianapolis Indians announced the release of their schedule less than two weeks later.

On April 6th the AAA-Indianapolis Indians were set to travel to Memphis to take on the Redbirds, only five days after the Pirates opener against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. In theory this progression could make all the sense in the world. After Pittsburgh participates in its last contest of the spring at CenturyLink Sports Complex, home of the Twins, in Fort Meyers they could send the MLB roster north to begin the season, and at the same time assigning players to Indianapolis; also allowing MiLB camp to begin in Bradenton for Low A through AA. It could potentially be a smooth and simple progression to start the season. But, as I thought about this, my mind kept drifting back to the health and safety protocols along with the precise wording concerning the MiLB season.

Prior to Opening Day teams would be required to submit 26-man active roster and a 28-man AAA/alternate site list, with only those 28 players being eligible for call ups to MLB; which did even begin to explain how the the five player taxi squad would work if the AAA season started on time. Built into this plan was the ability of MLB to decide whether or not the AAA season would actually kickoff on April 6th up to 15 days before that date, so the powers that be surprisingly didn’t wait until the actual last minute again to make a decision. However, this doesn’t make it any easier to swallow because the memories and emotions of a cancelled 2020 MiLB season are still a little too raw; along with the excitement of teams, such as the Indians, when they rolled out their 2021 schedules.

Nevertheless, it is the hand that has been dealt, so it’s time to adjust and plan for the ever approaching end to Spring Training. Currently the Pirates have 73 players in Bradenton, which includes two 60 day IL members in Austin Davis and Jose Soriano, with two spaces left until they reach the maximum number allowed. In about a months time Ben Cherington will have to whittle these 71 able bodied guys to 54 that will be available to play in Pittsburgh up until at least May 4th.

Last season the alternate site was utilized as a developmental playground for some of the teams top prospects, as well as a holding tank for some MLB ready players. Most teams operated in a similar fashion, so it was no surprise that there were 212 debuts last season in only 60 games, with many stepping from limited experience at the AA level to MLB contributors; including Pirates reliever Nick Mears. For reference there were a total of 261 across 162 games the previous year, which would pale in comparison to the estimated 572 that could have taken place if 2020 was a normal season; and it looks like the intended level of normalcy for the 2021 isn’t going to happen just quite yet. Instead, Cherington is going to have to shuffle the deck, play the options game and make some tough decisions concerning spots on both the 26-man and 28-man alternate site rosters, with the later ultimately becoming the 2021 Indianapolis Indians; once again not really touching on the extent of the man taxi squad beyond May 4th when the Indians are now set to take on the Cubs of Iowa. Also the Altoona Curve are scheduled to play at home, the 2020 alternate site, versus the Bowie Baysox, actually a Orioles affiliate and not a Red or White Sox one, on the 4th of May as well.

This situation could undoubtedly get messy, and eventually throw a wrench into the the whole culture of competition for starting spots on the 26-man roster. I know Gregory Polanco has pretty much thrown this out the window to a certain degree by being penned in to play right field after hitting .198 with a 33.35% K rate and 13 homers over the last two seasons, which equates to 92 games; but hey, his exit velocity jumped to 92.9 last year and he hit an opposite field bomb the other day in Spring Training. Of course I write this somewhat in jest, however, it could seriously allow players without options, or possible a couple of the NRIs on Minor League deals, who are outplayed by those with them to make the Opening Day Squad; at least to begin the season. I understand this happens every season to a certain degree, so it’s not really something to overthink; still I can’t erase it completely from my mind.

Although to me the more interesting set of circumstances will be the players who are assigned to the alternate site/AAA in conjunction with the ones that remain in Bradenton to begin Minor League Spring Training as it will give us a better idea concerning the prospects who are seen as more MLB ready; including the guys who are on the bubble between AAA-Indianapolis and AA-Altoona. That group could include Travis Swaggerty, Mason Martin, Cal Mitchell, Rodolfo Castro, Max Kranick, all of whom ended the 2019 MiLB season in High A-Bradenton; with the last two being added to the 40-man roster back in November to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

No matter how things go over the next month, the almost inevitable delay of the AAA has surely added an interesting wrinkle to roster decisions Cherington will be forced to make.

Slowly Building Up the Pirates Pitching Staff

It’s insanely early to try to decipher what exactly the Pirates are doing, or how the plan will culminate as the season opens in just about a month. That said, the first few games have given us a glimpse of at least what three other teams are doing versus the Pirates Approach.

Think back to the Spring Training 2.0 last season against the Indians, or Cleveland Baseball Team, or Spiders, or, well you get the point. The Indians starters were going 6 innings, 5 innings, the point being way more than the Pirates.

That trend continued early into the season and somewhere in the middle of September the pitchers began looking like a normal staff.

Here we are in a brand new spring and already we see the Pirates have starters going an inning while the competition is sitting around 2 innings if not more. Casey Mize went two innings yesterday, in fact so did Erasmo Ramirez. All while the Pirates used one pitcher to complete each inning.

I’m not a trainer, clearly. I’m no doctor, and I certainly don’t pretend to understand the intricacies of stretching out a pitching staff. All I have is what I see well, just about everywhere else, stacked side by side with what I see here.

Now, here’s a little transparency, the only reason this is on my mind is because last season the plan was at least started in the same fashion. I chalked that up largely to Spring being stunted and 2.0 being weird, and players coming back from injury. Legit, at this early stage, all that still applies.

That being said, I think its at least very likely the Pirates bring 13 pitchers north, and it’s extremely important that come April, 6 innings doesn’t only come on a 65 pitch super performance.

There are 8 pitchers in a 13 man pitching staff who patrol the bullpen and if your average start lasts 5 innings that’s upwards of 28 innings that need covered by those 8. Anyone who’s watched baseball for any length of time knows that getting 5 innings out of your starters 7 days in a row isn’t exactly typical so that number has a chance to blow up. Of course there will be weeks when that number is smaller too but to achieve that, you certainly have to stack the deck against it.

My other concern is that the primary motivation for this slow progression is almost assuredly to prevent injury, something that proved to not work last year. Could it have just been bad luck? Oh, sure it could, but numerous injuries to arms has been in play for the Pirates for a lot longer than Shelton and crew has been in town.

I’m really just asking a question here. What the Pirates have been doing to prepare the staff for the season hasn’t worked yet. So is it likely doing what they did last year will net different results? Are the Pirates the smartest guy in the room?

A quick look through the box scores from yesterday, I see one MLB club who only sent their starter out for a 1 inning start, Michael Wacha for the Rays. Normally I’d tell you absolutely I want the Pirates to do things like the Rays, but in this case, I’m not sure being an outlier is wise.

I understand this could be reading into something that isn’t a problem, but doing the math and assuming an inning or two gets added per week, this path gets them topping out around 6 and that’s if it doesn’t come with an associated pitch count. If this is the path, I really think they might need to consider bringing an extra pitcher out of camp and yes I know they wont require all 5 pitchers in the rotation at seasons beginning.

Hey, food for thought as we watch the early season contests. I’d love to hear what some of you think.

Pirates Prospects Doing the Things That They’re Actually Good At

Since I’ve been writing about the Pirates, few people have been more generous with their time than Michael McKenry. First of all, to talk to a catcher always provides more information than any one other position set. Catchers have to hit, play good defense, and understand pitching at a level some pitchers don’t even get to see.

Recently we got a chance to sit down again as the Pirates prepared to play their first Spring Training game and because of how much top talent was invited we of course spoke about prospects a bit.

I was asking Michael about game prep, you know, how you prepare to face an opposing pitcher and how it’s different at the various levels of the system when he dropped a quote about something we’ve touched on here in the past, individual development.

“I mean, the game has just changed so much. And they do a really good job now of individualizing it and that’s something that a lot of people don’t realize that this new regime, they’re doing that from the very, very bottom of the organization to the top now, that was not the case just two years ago. So there may be some wild names thrown out in terms of prospect talk, because of changes they’re going to make and adjustments, they’re going to see pretty drastically, just because they’re doing the things that they’re actually good at, instead of chasing the thing that they want them to be good at.”

There is nothing that will change the direction of this organization more than this difference, and we haven’t even begun to see these changes in full effect yet.

I mean, surely this isn’t going to mean the redefinition of players in the system or that the Pirates will unlock some hidden skill set right?

“Let’s take power, something that they’re missing throughout the organization is they don’t have a lot of power bats. I haven’t even gotten really in depth with a lot of the major league guys on my studies, because I’ve just been looking at gaps, like, like you’re talking about where are some of the gaps that, you know, may be filled with, you know, some kid that all of a sudden realizes, hey, I have a lot of pop, but I’m fast, and they tell me hit the ball on the ground or, you know, hit low line drives, and he just changes the depth of where he’s hitting the ball and he pops 30 this year, right? Because we’ve seen that in the big leagues. We’ve seen that in the minor leagues now because of analytics and biomechanics and all this information that helps things expedite. So it’s gonna be interesting to see if they can, you know, pull some of that out.”

The development system is probably the biggest story that will come out of 2021. We’re going to see how they progress players through, and we’re going to get an idea of how analytics help drive the training. This is all part of the group of things we all assumed the Pirates and every other team for that matter was already doing, but now realize they weren’t.

I mean give me an example of this really changing things for a player Fort!

“You’re talking about things that change people’s lives in the sense of the way that they even process things, because they’ve been here and now they’re up here like Justin Turner and Max Muncy, because when I was playing against Max in 16, he couldn’t hit a fastball. Now, I’ll watch him catch up to 98 at his eyes, and it’s cool to see those little adjustments he made to be able to do that.”

Obviously the development system worked for some players, so I guess it has a whole lot to do with the makeup of the individual player as well. Take Stallings for instance.

“He’s a different breed. And I think that’s what it takes. I think that’s what it takes for especially small market teams, but especially for guys like Stallings to kind of mold himself into what he has. It wasn’t just an accident that he was in the Gold Glove talk last year, he’s really worked hard at it. He’s always been good with his pictures, very cerebral.”

Next up we turned to talking about the development that happens at the MLB level and I wanted to focus on Oscar Marin, who we really didn’t get to see impact the club last season due to injuries to the staff and an insanely short season that didn’t leave time for slow moving mechanical changes.

“Yeah, he did some really cool things though, like Rich Rodriguez, you know, changing his pitch usage and throwing the slider more with more depth, more spin, getting more swinging misses with that. I mean, that makes Richard Rodriguez unpredictable. And he was super predictable. He was going to get hit that’s what would happen in the short stance. He started utilizing that slider more which got him in the zone. You’re gonna see clay Holmes, I think have a big year. I think he’ll make the team out of camp. Because this stuff’s too good. They’ve spent a lot of time redesigning and reconfiguring his arsenal.”

This is the type of stuff that is really going to be fun to watch. You can focus on the overall record but as Fort alluded to, we’re also going to get to see some guys maybe we’ve already mentally cast off find that formula.

Here’s what Michael had to say about one of those former cast offs, Jacob Stallings.

“I guess, three or four years going up and down, up and down, really, never knowing what was next has set him up for just ultimate success in this role. Because, you can’t put as much pressure on him now, as he did back then, you know, not knowing if he was going to have a job going through waivers, you know, having a family being like, I don’t know where I’ll be in three days, because I have to make it through waivers. And then I’m ultimately coming back to the pirates, you know, probably having a little bit of resentment in his heart like, hey, do you guys not care? I’ve done all this for for so long for you guys. And then ultimately showing Hey, look, I’m really good. If you give me an opportunity, a chance. I’m really good.”

He’s right you know, I can say I absolutely wrote off Stallings as nothing more than a backup at his peak. I was wrong.

Good for the Pirates, good for Jake.

Michael is an optimistic person but he’s not blinded by it, that’s a rare quality that comes across as speaking the party line at times, but trust me, underneath that optimism reality of the situation, and the opportunity lies.

Special thanks to the Fort for a wonderful sit down and if you’d like to hear more check out this week’s Bucs in the Basement Podcast.