Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 3-1-21

Actual baseball, well sorta, is being played now and man did it feel good listening yesterday. It was also good to hear the genuine crack off the bat of Ke’Bryan Hayes. Man that kid makes a sound we haven’t heard in Pittsburgh since Josh Bell’s one month of dominance.

Let’s dig in, cause things are swirling around the old noggin today.

1. If the Bat Plays, So Will He

I keep hearing people say Cole Tucker needs to move to the Outfield because there is too much coming in the middle infield. Let’s be honest about Cole, he needs to hit. That’s it. Where he plays will sort itself out if the bat warrants it. If it doesn’t, he’s better off at least playing a position where he can positively impact defensively like shortstop. Is he Jay Bell or Raphael Belliard? I know which way I lean, and there can be a place for either type of player, but Belliard wasn’t going to take reps from anyone in the outfield, I suspect Tucker won’t either. It’s so simple you almost believe there has to be more, but no matter what you believe is best for him, nothing happens without that bat becoming more of a concern for opposing pitchers.

2. Bryan Reynolds’ Batting Slot

Early in Spring a coach will sometimes lift his skirt a bit and show you what their ideal order is for most nights. We obviously don’t know if Derek Shelton subscribes to that way of thinking but yesterday’s starting lineup sure looked plausible minus Stallings and a potentially healthy Adam Frazier.

Coach put Bryan Reynolds in at the number 3 hole and I get it, so what I’m going to say at this point is probably nit picky. I think Reynolds is at his best when he has more pressure to get on base than to drive in runs. Now, that’s not to say he can’t or won’t drive in runs, but he’s at his best, in my mind, when he has just as much incentive to take his walks as to gap one. I also love having a switch hitter in that spot because it prevents pitching changes from creating a lack of balance in the order.

I also like his speed there in front of two players (Hayes & Moran) very prone to doubles. Ultimately, I’ll settle for being happy if Shelton simply picks an order and sticks with it a bit, but if I’m allowed to nitpick, Reynolds is my number 2 guy.

3. Pirates Announcers Speak the Unspoken

One of the most interesting aspects of yesterday’s broadcast had to be Greg Brown and Bob Walk directly talking to the plan this franchise has undertaken. I’m not saying they’ve lied to us in the past, but they certainly liked to give you the rose colored glasses version of the roster. Yesterday, they focused on what was being built and even touching on the methodology behind it. It’s a small thing, but in many ways it really was refreshing to not hear that Musgrove was traded because Kuhl and Brault were ready or something to that effect.

It’s important to remember that the Pirates announcers are first and foremost team employees, so if they’re being more honest about what’s going on here, I take that as the team sanctioning such communication. It’s nice to know that we could get a little more transparency and coming from the announcers themselves it might just reach the people who aren’t reading 10 columns a week and listening to 7 podcasts. A fanbase that sees the vision might just support the journey.

4. Standing O

It was wonderful to see Trey Mancini back from his Stage 3 Colon Cancer treatments.

Gives you the chills, even with stunted number of fans in the stands. The Orioles are a real competitor for worst record in baseball for 2021 but this story is bigger than all that. You know everyone on that field was chomping at the bit to play the game, so to see it all come to a halt in the bottom of the first to give this young man a minute and a standing O after tossing an attempted double play ball into the outfield in the top half.

None of that mattered right then, and here’s wishing Trey a healthy and productive return to the game he fought so hard to return to.

5. Colin Moran Might be a Legitimate Upgrade at First

No joke. Defensively he will almost assuredly provide a steady hand that has been shaky at best for the past few seasons. In fact he flashed the leather on a screamer down the line early on. He can make the throws too, his arm and glove have never been an issue for Colin, range was. At the plate he may not hit the highs Bell could, but he probably avoids the lows. Overall, I believe Moran will ultimately make the Bell trade feel less painful than paper suggests it should. Batting behind Reynolds and Hayes (even if Shelty ignores my suggested order) will provide him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but I do worry about protection in the lineup for him.

If Polanco can hit even .250 his power is real enough to scare some into pitching to Moran although I might be tempted to move him down to 6 to split the lefties up a bit.

Question of the Week

This question was specifically about signing Porcello but we can easily insert any name of a pitcher still hanging out there on the market.

First of all, if a pitcher is still out there, chances are there is a reason. They either think they’re worth more than the teams do or there is something we don’t know that teams are concerned with.

Ben Cherington himself has suggested he might not be done bringing in players including a veteran pitcher, but at this stage of the Spring I think he’d probably be inclined to wait and see who gets waived later on.

Players get waived for all sorts of reasons that don’t always tie directly to performance. It could just be a numbers game or a guy who signed an MLB contract and wants nothing to do with riding a bus again. The Pirates could have more success shopping in that market. And that’s if they get to that point and still feel they need to. Could simply wind up feeling pretty good about who they already have.

Competition is the Real Game Story

During the first inning of yesterday’s ballgame, we were given a glimpse into another reason to largely ignore Spring stats as after 2/3 of an inning and with the Pirates still in business, the Orioles coach called “enough” on his pitcher.

A new wrinkle in Spring competition this year, designed to focus more on training and readiness for the upcoming season than wins and losses. We were also treated to both coaches coming together to decide although they had decided to play a 9 inning contest the night before, 8 was enough to see what they wanted to see.

In other words, nobody should really take much from the records this Spring. That’s always been the case as prospects filter in and out of the lineups and pitchers are asked to work on a specific pitch vs approaching a matchup with an individualized game plan, but this is simply too in your face to even pretend it can be reported as a ‘normal’ game.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t anything to learn, or look for in these contests, but it certainly does mean some coaches like Tony La Russa might be a bit uncomfortable with the change.

I see that, but for the Pirates, Spring Training record and stats might actually be a distraction from the work they’re doing.

So instead of that focus, we need to hone in on the important nuggets and battles taking place and that’s where we’ll focus.

The most in your face and legitimate battle being waged is in the middle infield. First of all, we have not been made to believe that Adam Frazier’s injury is long term, certainly not something that would prevent him being moved should the right offer come along, but his absence also creates a bit of an accelerated chance to get opportunity to the gentlemen competing to be the short stop.

On this day Kevin Newman would get the call while his competition Erik Gonzalez manned second base. Even something like this shows you something. Purely with the glove, Erik is superior to Kevin, but because this is a very real competition, Newman got to get started ahead of him.

The game started with Kevin rapping a single to the opposite field which is very reminiscent to the Newman that tore it up in 2019. He would go on to have a 2 for 2 afternoon with a walk. Not a bad way to start.

Gonzalez was not to be outdone. He matched Kevin with the exact same stat line, but added a slick double play after Newman had been removed from the game giving way to Rodolfo Castro.

With Cole Tucker as the only short stop option who hasn’t seen the field yet, it’s up to him to tell the Pirates they are in fact owners of a good problem to have.

Todd Frazier looked to show he still had something and while he did hit a homerun it was extremely wind helped, and he was, at least according to Bob Walk and Greg Brown, behind on the fastball all day.

Polanco had a two run homerun, and again, wind played a role.

That’s not to take anything away from either of them, wind driven homeruns happen everyday in baseball and we don’t asterisk those, it’s just to further illustrate, things aren’t always what they seem in the box score.

Quite possibly, no Pirate struggled more than Carson Fulmer. The homerun he gave up was no joke and the lack of movement on his fastball is exactly the type of pitch that will lead to Fulmer missing out on his latest chance in this league. Just shows you no matter where you’re drafted or what program you came from (Vanderbilt) at the end of the day, you still have to do the job.

All in all, nice to have the Bucs back in action and get the win, even if it’s harder than ever to take it as gospel. Hey, at least in Tony’s mind the Pirates are well on their way.

And So It Begins, Pirates Open Spring Schedule with Orioles

All the analysis, the trades, the invites, the suppositions come to life today at 1:05 in Sarasota, Florida. The game will be available on the radio at 93.7 the Fan and fans will be able to attend at a 25% clip. Today we’ll have to rely on the announcers to paint a picture.

For some this is the official end of Winter, I mean, technically this is the last day meteorologically speaking too. For others this is the beginning of a year they’d rather just skip over on the path to competitiveness.

No matter where you fall, there is something undeniably special about seeing the boys stop talking about baseball and start playing the game. Rumors about position battles turn into who gets the first crack. Poor performance in 2020 hasn’t been wiped away entirely, but somehow the slate still clears every year.

You’re only defined by what you’ve done until you do something else. Every player understands that, and this is the first opportunity to start writing a different level of expectation fans should have.

The Pirates aren’t blind to what people think of their ball club or many of them individually. Many of them somewhere in the back of their head have many of the same questions about what’s here and who’ll do what this season. Some of them no doubt wonder why they’re still here, cough, Adam Frazier.

Some want nothing more than to prove those 60 games were the outlier, not the 162 they put on tape a year prior. Hell, they probably think they can do better still.

We shouldn’t fool ourselves, some players lace up the cleats today feeling nothing is really going to happen for them this year, at least not here.

The weeding of this roster will in many ways be different than what we’ve seen in quite some time in Pittsburgh. The final cuts will undoubtedly be players many believed could contribute or deserved a shot. There are options, and that’s more than we could say in many years past.

Even during the Wild Card run the starting rotation was pretty clear with nothing of note close. This season the Pirates are 8 or 9 deep with potential starters. All young, all hungry. Injury bit the club and just about every other club but the Pirates simply had nothing to turn to beyond scouring the waiver wire for help.

This season, good pitchers won’t make this club, and that is a GOOD thing, very good in fact. This season, capable position players won’t make this club out of Spring, again, this is a very good thing.

Depth and options will create the competition they desperately need to start building into, and insurance that injury alone won’t turn a young roster into a rudderless mess.

Today, it’ll be a nice mix of players who we expect to make the club with a few fringe guys tossed in. We immediately get to see that the short stop competition is kicking off with the pre-season favorite starting at 2B. We get our first eyes on what Tony Wolters can do behind the plate and we get to see Chad Kuhl begin to put his recovery in the past and put his stamp on the future of his career.

The Mound alone will be fun to watch today.

Craig would love you to pay special attention to Spitzbarth, and I’ll stick with my guy Clay Holmes, but it’ll be great to get eyes on Wil Crowe and to see why the Pirates have continued to have Carson Fulmer survive the 40-man shuffle.

Yep, baseball is back, and here’s to a season of growth and hopefully the beginning of looking like the ship is finally back on the correct bearing.

Welcome back Pirates.

Spring Has Officially Sprung For The Pirates

Over the past few days excitement surrounding the beginning of the Grapefruit League Season for the Pittsburgh Pirates has been picking up steam for many within the fanbase. Sure we know these games don’t count for much of anything and that more than likely a long season awaits us when the boys finally pack up and head north to PNC Park, however, it will be somewhat comforting to have ball games on our televisions, or more accurately mixed in with radios intermittently for the next few weeks, from now until October 3rd.

Nevertheless, before we get to look completely forward, it is difficult to not take a glimpse back to where we have been over the off-season. So much has transpired in the 153 days since the Pirates walked off the field after a 8-6 loss to Cleveland. Chris Archer’s option was declined, Trevor Williams was designated for assignment, Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon were all traded and many new faces have been brought in to talk their places, while some old familiar ones remain; at least for the time being.

Obviously there is some enthusiasm built in to seeing how the Pirates, and many of its individual players, will hopefully progress and develop in the weeks and months that follow, yet, I feel like some have overestimated the role that much of the youth movement will play, especially in the beginning. It’s hard to resist the desire to just jump ahead to when all the Young Bucs will be contributing members of the big league club; unfortunately that isn’t possible. All too often I have seen people talk about the impact players like Quinn Priester, Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty and Mason Martin will have during the next 29 games, without really understanding the difficulties the Pirates coaching staff will have in preparing the MLB ready players for a 162 game season.

Up until March 13th, managers can agree with one another to have games last as few as 5 innings. Even beyond that games can be limited to 7 innings. Add in the fact that due to the health and safety protocols these innings may not even be 3 outs, but actually based on the number of pitches thrown, as it can be requested that team change sides after twenty from a single pitcher. Please tell me how these guys that have been mentioned are going to used any more than sparingly during this time, and with these restrictions. I don’t mean to burst anyone’s bubbles, but I guess I am going to.

Manager Derek Shelton and company have a month to get the Pirates stretched out and game ready for Opening Day, all while having open competitions in centerfield, at shortstop and for the fifth starter; and I I am certain that Gonzales, Peguero, Swaggerty and Priester are not being mentioned in any conversations beyond rumblings from the fans. It’s nothing against them, it’s just the facts of the situation. All of these guys, and many others, will get their shots when Minor League Spring Training starts at the end of March, or for a select few when the Indianapolis Indians travel to Memphis to face the Redbirds on April 6th. Everyone else will have to wait until May 4th when the Double A, High A and Low A seasons begin.

As a self proclaimed prospect junkie, I am as eager as anyone else to see these guys make their mark. However, for now I will channel that energy into seeing if Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman or Erik Gonzalez is standing at shortstop at Wrigley on April 2nd, whether or not Anthony Alford can keep Brian Goodwin, Jared Oliva and Dustin Fowler from taking centerfield from him as he opens Spring Training as a pinch hitter or DH and if JT Brubaker is able to wrap up the 4th or 5th spot in the starting rotation, along with other storylines. And as far as today goes, I will turn on the radio, sit back and relax and maybe crack open a cold beverage while the Pirates take the field against the Orioles. It might not be 9 innings and 3 outs, but it will more than enough for me.

Top Five – Bold (Possibly Crazy) Predictions for 2021

There are so many things that are easy to predict for 2021, and most of them don’t go beyond the overall record. I think there are a few things we could see that might not be likely, maybe even a bit nuts, but still possible.

So as I brace myself to get beaten up in the comments, let’s get going.

1. The Pirates Pitching > 2020

I can’t shake all the injuries in 2020, coupled with the very real facts that losing Trevor Williams is a blessing, Taillon didn’t pitch anyway and Joe was hurt most of the season. The bullpen was just as nicked up. Add all of this up and I think they have a chance to pitch pretty well.

2. Kevin Newman Returns to Form

By the end of 2021, I think we’ll be officially talking about Newman taking ownership of a spot and the bat will be the primary reason. A refocused and refined swing might take time to master but it could also address two of his peripherals that didn’t jive with actual good stats.

3. One Extension Happens in 2021

Either Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds or Mitch Keller will receive an extension this year and it’ll carry them through at least 2028. If I had to pick right now, it would be Hayes.

4. Colin Moran’s Power Fully Matures

I think Moran will pop more over the wall than anyone on the team. OK, that’s not a bold prediction when you look at the roster, so here’s the bold part. I think he hits 30.

5. They Won’t Lose 100 Games

Yeah, I know. I honestly think this based much more on the rest of the division. I find it plausible this division is taken with 90 wins. The Cards to me should only lose this if they suffer some real injury trouble.

The Not So Hidden Messages Behind The Pirates Spring Training Narratives

Each Pittsburgh Pirates Spring Training, at least for the first couple of weeks, we get these feel good stories about what players have been up to over the off-season, their goals for the coming year and changes they may have made in their approach; including adjustments in their swing, pitches they’ve added to their repertoire and a possible change in focus to get better at the defensive part of their game.

Narratives surrounding certain roles and expectations for players flow from the mouths of media members, teammates, coaches and players themselves, all the way up to Pirates Manager Derek Shelton and even General Manager Ben Cherington himself; like the Allegheny and Monongehela flow together seamlessly to create the Ohio. Each interview or social media post teeming with quotes about how ready a player looks, the motivation and passion in their voice or their eyes, their unflappable work ethic, the benefits of their veteran leadership and an indescribable characteristic they possess that let’s you know they are going to have a great year.

If I am being totally honest, more often than not, I usually devour each and every one of these reports and storylines; along with videos of drills, batting practice, bullpens and whatever else the Pirates social media department and beat reporters put in front of me. At times, since February 15th, I have found myself entranced by the wonder that is the start of the Major League Baseball Season; just as I have been in years past. However, every now and again I hear or see something that catches my attention and brings me back to the reality that is 2021 for the Pittsburgh Pirates; which ultimately has nothing to do with the validity of or motivation behind what is being presented to us, the Pirates Fans.

Before the signing of Tyler Anderson to an actual Major League contract I knew the Pirates needed a veteran arm in their rotation, even advocating that they sign one on several occasions; however I guess I didn’t realize just how much until I finally broke down the numbers. With his 446 innings as a starter, Anderson has nearly 40% of the total career innings as a member of the projected starting five. Only Chad Kuhl comes close at 31% accompanied by Steven Brault at 19%, Mitch Keller at 6% and JT Brubaker bringing up the rear at 4%. Anderson also leads the crew with 6.4 WAR, which is actually 3.3 more than the other four combined, with less work put in on the mound. Looking back, I’m not sure how it was ever a thought that the Pirates could make do with the options at hand.

Certainly one particular young man, Keller, has been groomed to be a leader, a guy the team wants to build around and the eventual “ace” of the staff. Many, myself included, rave about his abilities and potential, to go along with what some have described as an ever increasing confidence. The fact of the matter is that he just isn’t there yet, which obviously isn’t the same as thinking that he never will be. However, you can’t ignore the current track record. In his first year the strike outs and control were mostly there as he struck out 65 hitters in 48 innings, but potentially suffered from some bad luck as his ERA sat at 7.13, while his FIP was a more than reasonably low 3.19. Then last year they were flipped flopped as his ERA shrunk to 2.91 and his FIP rose to 6.47; and he walked more batters (18) than he struck out (16) across only 21.2 innings, due to in part to a stint on the IL with left side discomfort. Now, to be the “ace” or carry the load of a rotation of is a lot to ask from anyone, especially a pitcher who doesn’t turn 25 until two days after the season starts; which fundamentally makes their veteran addition, and possible one more, a necessity.

Almost a week prior to Anderson’s signing the Pirates acquired veteran outfielder, Brian Goodwin on a Minor League Deal with an invitation to Spring Training and $1.6 million plus up to 900K in bonuses if he earns an Opening Day roster spot. This move wasn’t as surprise as the centerfield competition was primarily limited to inexperienced duo of Anthony Alford and Jared Oliva. Then on Wednesday it was announced by the Director of Sports Medicine for the Pirates, Todd Tomczyk, that Alford was limited with his throwing due to his surgically repaired elbow from a collision with the outfield wall at PNC Park back on September 5, 2020, so he would be relegated to DH and pinch hit duties to begin Grapefruit League play.

Later that evening the Pirates traded for recently designated for assignment outfielder from the A’s, Dustin Fowler. As Gary wrote in one of his latest articles, don’t assume anything based on this move; which the absolute truth. But it goes even further because I actually assumed something before the trade; that the Pirates have no idea who their centerfielder is going to be this season. It isn’t necessarily a bad thing, just another fact. In camp, they currently have a veteran with experience and a good, not great, track record, two former top 100 prospects who have struggled to break through and the 2019 AA-Altoona Curve MVP. And the last three only have 52 starts combined in centerfield at the Major League Level. This allows for competition and evaluation, but no clear answer for the for the future, as Pirates Fans hope for one to separate themself from the other.

The last meaningful move by the Pirates, which has some underlying implications was the February signing of formerly hated Cincinnati Red by way of the White Sox, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Mets again, third/first baseman Todd Frazier. His was another Minor League signing, with an NRI and $1.5 million plus 600K in potential benchmark incentives for total MLB at bats. Almost immediately following this move I wrote about the possible reason(s) for adding bringing in Frazier, most of which surrounded Colin Moran. However, after a discussion with Jason Martinez from Fangraphs the other day, more of the interview forthcoming on an episode of Bucs In The Basement podcast, the eventual first slump of Ke’Bryan Hayes career was examined.

It would nice to think that the Ke’Bryan Hayes we all saw in September of 2020 will be with us always and forever; you know until he gets traded for prospects. But in all seriousness, the .376/.442/.682 slash line with 5 homers in 24 games is almost impossible to repeat, and he is going to experience a downturn at some point in 2021. It’s pretty much unavoidable, so it would be beneficial to a have an veteran like Frazier to jump in when need be; not just because of needed off days during a 162 game campaign, which will also play a factor.

Of course there have been more, and will be more, underlying meanings to different reports, narratives, storylines and even transactions involving the Pirates. You just need to know where to look, and how to read between the lines.

Talent In, With No Accompanying Risk

So what right? What’s another outfielder who hasn’t cracked MLB? Looks like the Pirates are dumpster diving again!

These were some of the instant reactions I saw regarding the Pirates acquisition of Dustin Fowler from the Oakland A’s for cash.

First of all, don’t assume anything based on this move. In other words, this doesn’t doom Anthony Alford to become a DFA candidate even if his arm isn’t right yet, this doesn’t mean Brian Goodwin isn’t in the mix. You shouldn’t assume they have a trade partner for Gregory Polanco.

Any of that could wind up being true, but that’s not why they got Dustin Fowler. They picked up this player to add depth to a position that they simply don’t have any.

We’ve heard several suggestions that somehow Travis Swaggerty would be ready at some point in 2021 to contribute at the MLB level. I’ve thought that was a stretch from the jump, and I still do. That’s not a reflection on Swaggerty’s ability as much as a simple fact, Travis hasn’t played beyond AA and he hasn’t exactly thrived with every jump. It’s a lot to ask. OK, and it’s a little about Swaggerty himself, I’m just not sold.

I truly believe he’ll be in the mix for 2022 at some point, but 2021 still needs played. Heading into the season the club has Brian Reynolds, and Gregory Polanco as locks to make the club and start, health permitting. Beyond that, Goodwin is pretty close to a sure bet and then you have real question marks.

Jared Oliva, Anthony Alford and well if you really want to dig you run into Chris Sharpe. That’s not enough to attempt to get through a season and on top of that, this was an opportunity to bring in a player who has some power.

The wrinkle here with Fowler is that he has exhausted all his options so should he not make the team, the club wouldn’t be able to send him to AAA without possibly losing him.

There are some other weird things that could happen. Polanco could potentially not be ready for the season opener depending on how his wrist performs. That could open up a possibility.

Alford is also out of options, in fact beside the obvious differences in how they were acquired, they’re the same type of player. A fully mature prospect that never got a full shot due to injury or opportunity who just might pan out and provide lightning in a bottle.

Flip the script on this, it would be like the Pirates dealing Kevin Kramer or Will Craig for cash. Two guys aging out who haven’t managed to get a foothold but put up decent AAA numbers.

A while back Craig wrote a piece about all the different ways Ben Cherington needs to continue to bring talent into the organization. This is one of those methods.

In fact, Fowler is the exact type of player Neal Huntington would target, the difference is he’d trade actual players to get it. He would have been one member of a 5 player “haul” for a star.

All of Cherington’s trades have primarily returned high upside, young prospects. For a club that lacked any semblance of a close to the majors pipeline, that leaves the MLB squad and AAA for that matter in a sketchy spot. That’s not to say he’s taken the wrong path, instead I’m simply illustrating that filling the MLB and close to MLB depth is important too. Now that could have easily been another Goodwin type, but why not take a shot at seeing if you can find something someone missed?

Point is, it’s either a great pickup and he earns a spot, or they find a way to mash him through waivers to bolster AAA depth, or lose him for nothing but some of Bob’s money which I know all of you love to hear.

Moves like this aren’t worth getting excited about, but hit on one or two of them and man can it accelerate things.

Fowler’s path was hampered back in 2017 when he made his debut with the Yankees as he suffered a catastrophic knee injury. It wouldn’t be until 2018 when he would pop back up with the A’s after being dealt. He put up solid numbers in AAA and then really pedestrian in his stint with the big club.

The numbers you see the Pirates touting, Fowler hit .277 with career-highs in hits (154), home runs (25) and RBI (89) in 130 games with Triple-A Las Vegas, are intriguing, but he wasn’t part of the plan in Oakland. 67 games represent his entire MLB body of work, so this isn’t someone who has spoiled for opportunity and we’re hoping a change of scenery works magic. This is a guy who has legitimate power, an observable missing element from the MLB level for this club who lacked a path.

I understand the dumpster dive aspect of this and it may turn out to be an exercise in paper moves that net nothing but some money going out. That said, I respect the effort, and I like the understanding of areas this club can try to put effort in to catch that elusive lightning.

Manipulate This

The Bucs in the Basement Podcast is Craig’s baby, I’ve up until very recently been 100% on the writing side and he’s always manned that part. In fact, I was a fan of Craig’s broadcast before we even started writing together.

As happens on occasion a point brought up on the show really smacked me in the face so of course poor Craig had to endure a back and forth with me about it via text while he no doubt tried to bathe his kids or something important.

Chris Lunati, Craig’s co-host, brought up the subject of the now former president of baseball operation for the Seattle Mariners, Kevin Mathers. The man uttered the unspoken words about manipulating the service time of two top prospects.

Now, Chris didn’t have a problem with the action, he had a problem with the stupidity of thinking you could say it out loud and it led him to suppose the Pirates could and potentially should do the same with Ke’Bryan Hayes this year should he not sign an extension. Give it a listen either on our Podcast tab on the homepage or HERE.

Let me start with this, none of us, not Craig, Chris or myself, want them to do this, but you’d be a fool to ignore the possibility.

Let’s lay it out.

The Pirates won’t be good this year, and a simple delay of Hayes to MLB by a couple weeks could buy the club an extra season of service. A month or two could get the club Super-2.

Now, do I personally think the club would do this? No, I think the second they brought him up last season this ship sailed. Make no mistake though, they could.

If something were to happen like a small blister or hamstring pull in Spring Training you could easily see that turn into a bit of an extended rehab start. Aside from that, I think they play it straight.

I know, I know, fans would riot right? Nobody would buy tickets! Bob Nutting is so cheap! This management group is worst than Neal Huntington was!

Reality is, you’d get over it. OK, maybe not ALL of you, but most of you would.

Let’s say the window for this club opens in 2024 and stays open fully through 2027. Deciding what to do with Hayes right now, dictates whether he’s here for that full window or not. If they extend him, no biggie, he’s here. Get that extra year by not starting his clock yet and you just might cover the window with him in black and gold. Start him now with no extension in place and he could very well be on his way out smack dab in the middle.

It’s the very pinnacle of jaded viewpoints, but being a well rounded observer means taking in the entire picture along with every distasteful possibility.

This isn’t even necessarily about Bob paying up, reportedly there is an extension that has already been offered along with ongoing dialogue. Fact is, the longer he goes in his career without signing one, the more likely it becomes he doesn’t.

It’s not fair to the players! I can hear some of you pounding your fists and screaming at the screen as I type some of these paragraphs. True, but it’s also the rules. It’s also not fair that some teams can afford 260 million dollar payrolls while others realistically can’t sustain 150.

The players union will undoubtedly target these rules in the upcoming CBA negotiation and that factors in as well. Especially with the smoking gun that was just handed to them by the loose lipped former Mariners president. This comes on the back of the Kris Bryant lawsuit and every other disgruntled player caught up in a situation where they lose a year of free agency by having their service time manipulated.

Nobody knows the outcome of those negotiations. Maybe it will be a situation where everyone currently in MLB lives under the rules of the previous CBA. Maybe it’ll just restructure the entire system immediately. We don’t know, and when you are trying to build a team like the Pirates are, there is nothing more crucial than understanding your windows for control.

It’s clear to me though at this point, this aspect of the game is going to change, and rightfully so. Thing is, you can’t keep taking arrows out of the quiver of the already under armed small to mid market franchises. If you think baseball is unbalanced now, and by all means please remove your blindfold now if you don’t, wait and see how it looks when teams only get 4 years of control once the clock starts.

Again, I don’t think the Pirates will do this. They have already put Hayes into overdrive on the PR front. He’s front and center on every team image, highlighted for showing up early to camp, pictured on every press blast. It’s clear they recognize he’s the face and I doubt they want to repeatedly punch him while hoping you don’t notice the shiner.

That said, you can’t ignore the reality of where this club is and the meaninglessness of having him on the club if it costs him being here when it counts.

I wanted to scream at my phone when I heard Chris bring it up, but I also had to sit back and realize he’s completely right to think about it.

He also rightly points out that everybody’s small market darlings the Tampa Bay Rays every single year offer extensions to qualifying players like Blake Snell, gently reminding him that under the CBA the club has the right to pay him 10% less than the previous year before he reaches arbitration.

They do this all the time. You can simply marvel at what they’ve done in Tampa, but don’t look too close or you just might see how distasteful and terrible for the few fans they do have to run a club that way. As a Pirates fan I’m certainly not talking from a high perch, but pulling every trick in the book is just as ugly as never getting the job done.

These are conversations every team in baseball is having, even the Dodgers aren’t immune, it’s just a whole lot more critical for teams of a certain economic standing.

Bottom line, I think Hayes sticks and quite possibly the Pirates make a decision they’ll live to regret. That doesn’t make it the wrong one though, at least not from the fan’s standpoint.

How Do You Know You’ve Seen Enough from a Player?

I often hear and read “This guy has to play more, we need to see what we’ve got”. Honestly, insert your player in there for “this guy” because what I’m talking about here is more general.

If I had to guess, it has something to do with not performing up to where people expected a player to be and wanting to see this player have opportunity to show it. That’s an oversimplification of course, but again, in general I think it covers the bases.

For some players, this can go on for years. Believe it or not, there are still fans who look at the specimen that is Gregory Polanco at 29 years old. He looks the part, and since he broke into the league in 2014 he’s put up two seasons (2016,2018) that probably satisfy the pinnacle of his career and talent level. Anthony Alford benefits from this looking the part thing too but I digress.

We’re talking about an average in the mid .250’s with 20+ homeruns and 80+ RBI. Ton of strikeouts, but if he hits like that and isn’t expected to be the cleanup hitter, that’s not a bad player to have.

OK, I haven’t mentioned his defense, a .982 career fielding percentage in Right Field is less than stellar.

Again though, for some, that’s not enough. They’d still like to see more and some of those same people have seen plenty of Kevin Newman.

Kevin Newman who has played 205 games over a three season span and put together a really solid 2019.

So, what defines having seen enough?

Cole Tucker hasn’t really hit at any level, but we want to see more right? Nice kid, for all the intangibles it would be great if it worked out for him, hey it’d be great for the team but at some point, we have to take what he’s been showing us and believe it. When?

For others we certainly wipe away needing to see more. Ke’Bryan Hayes has put together 85 at bats in MLB and nobody needs to see another swing to believe he’s a lock. Maybe he is, but what he just put together in those 85 at bats dwarfs everything he did in the minors at any stop.

Don’t get me wrong, the bat was there, just not the power. The average was good, just not otherworldly like it was in 2020. The glove has always been there. He’s a really good young player, but those 85 at bats have led some to, jokingly or not, compare him to Nolan Arenado.

In other words, 85 at bats, or 24 games was plenty for Hayes because quite honestly he exceeded literally anyone’s wildest dreams in that short sample size.

OK, Ke is a first round pick, of course people were primed to accept his success.

What about Phillip Evans? Here’s a guy who was drafted in the 15th round back in 2011, is 28 years old and had all of 39 at bats in 2020 where he put together a .359 average before a catastrophic collision with Gregory Polanco.

Since his draft he’s played all of 45 games, 11 of which were here in Pittsburgh. Yet, almost universally, everyone wants to see more.

I don’t say any of this to illustrate that anyone is wrong or right, instead I’m trying to understand what triggers the overriding sentiment that we’ve seen enough to form an opinion.

Remember Justin Turner, third baseman for the Dodgers, essentially was Phillip Evans before eventually making his way to LA where he discovered power that hadn’t been seen throughout his career. Along the way plenty of fans in New York had absolutely “seen enough” of him. So, before I poop all over Phil Evans ever being more than what he’s put on tape, his career arc isn’t at this stage much different than Mr. Turner.

Turner is a one in a million type of turnaround, but it’s also a real world example that points to it never being completely nuts to still want to see more of anyone.

Starting a piece with a question deserves an answer, unfortunately I don’t have a clear one. I pour over numbers and watch tape and read evaluations and still sometimes can’t get past what my gut is telling me. I’m sure many of you do the same.

I think at the end of the day, I tend to look more for fatal flaws.

Trevor Williams had a ton of intangibles and experienced some success in 2018. That success at the time looked like a player maturing into someone who would eat innings and be a solid back of the rotation arm for years to come. Then it never happened again. I started last season openly calling for his removal from the rotation. The fatal flaw was simple for him, he simply needed Greg Maddux level control to be successful, but clearly didn’t have it. That was it for me.

I’ve seen enough of Erik Gonzalez, he can field but I just can’t see that bat ever becoming more than a guy who drills the ball into the ground. I think I could watch him get 600 at bats in 2021 and my mind won’t be changed.

It’s different for everyone, but I guess we also have to acknowledge it’s different for every player too. For instance, some players really need the velocity from the mound to help create the power at the plate. In fact we might be seeing some of that with Hayes. As you move up levels the consistency of velocity increases and for guys who maybe lack the power to mash a changeup 375, that really can play into the power numbers.

In Pittsburgh, we have these conversations and largely they’re meaningless because there hasn’t been anyone else to play. As this build starts to come to fruition I think we’ll all find when there is actual competition there also is a much more defined “I’ve seen enough” and an open mind is the best way to digest it.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 2-22-21

Today is the first full team workout in Bradenton and while more players than you’d think were already there, today it becomes official. It’s exciting every season, no matter what I think the outcome of the season will be, that’s the renewed hope, or at least hope that you see a bit of promise each Spring delivers.

Let’s dig in and have some fun talking Buccos!

1. You See What They Want You to See

When you watch clips from Pitchers and Catchers working out, many were through the roof to see Ke’Bryan Hayes already there working out. Make no mistake, he didn’t have to be there and he’s to be commended for wanting to get back to work and dive in. That said, he wasn’t the only one, he just happens to be who they want you to see doing it.

That’s not to take anything away from Mr. Hayes, again, he’s to be commended for going the extra mile, but last week was all PR, all the time. Do be careful to take too much from it. In other words, don’t assume he’s hitting cause he showed up and put in work early, while another guy isn’t for the opposite reason. First, you don’t know who was there, and with no media present, almost nobody does. Second, it’s a couple days getting in some cage work which most of them are doing anyway, just not there.

2. Promote-less in Seattle

Jarred Kelenic and pitcher Logan Gilbert are two top tier prospects for the Mariners and I know this will come as a shock to some of you, but they plan to manipulate their service time in Seattle. We knew this if we’re honest, it happens every year, on just about every team and it’s the dirty secret that also happens to be the worst kept secret in the industry.

Well, it turns out having a poorly kept secret while holding out for plausible deniability is preferable to hearing Kevin Mathers the Mariners Team President tell the absolute truth to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club on a Zoom call.

Kevin has a history of doing some distasteful things, but I’m not getting into that, this is just about baseball for me and I’ll leave that to people much more familiar.

I can’t express how damning some of those soundbites will be come CBA time.

He didn’t stop there, he commented on the free agent market and an overall philosophy of waiting for some of the 180+ free agents to come hat in hand to the Seattle begging for a place to work.

Another example of people claiming they want to hear the truth, until they do.

3. The Devil You Know

I find some things very interesting in Pirates fandom. One of them that always strikes me is how quickly we tend to decide we’ve seen enough of a guy the Pirates drafted while at the same time we’re willing to give endless shots to other team’s failed prospects.

For instance, Kevin Kramer and Will Craig, have never really been able to crack the lineup and based on that coupled with their age they’re not even considered having a chance to make the team. There’s no outcry. Nobody is screaming to get a look at them. Yet when the Pirates signed Brian Goodwin and Todd Frazier the fan base went nuts yelling that it better not cost Anthony Alford or Phillip Evans a shot.

Why?

I mean, I have nothing against either of those guys, but sincerely, Will Craig and Evans have much more in common than they have differences. One is out of mind, the other is someone you can’t fathom denying opportunity.

I mean is 26 too old? Or is it just too old if the Pirates drafted him?

And it doesn’t apply evenly. Erik Gonzalez has never benefited from that kind of grace, fans have been trying to get rid of him since he was acquired. Hell, Kevin Newman actually put up tremendous numbers in 2019 and he too is not remotely expected to be in the picture here as many prefer to force feed opportunity to Cole Tucker. It’s weird.

If you have a reason and want to explain, hit me up.

4. We Still Might Not Know the Entire Team

As Craig wrote last week, when Ben Cherington speaks, perhaps we should start to take him at face value. Yesterday in his exclusive sit down with Dejan at DK Pittsburgh Sports, and it ‘s a tremendous piece, he mentioned leaving a few spots open on the Spring Training roster in order to bring in more players should anyone peak their interest.

I’d normally just kinda toss this type of comment out as GM speak, but I’m starting to learn this GM doesn’t just say things for effect. Specifically we may be looking at another veteran pitcher and I don’t think the Spring timeline will really matter in this regard.

He also mentioned we could still be in for a trade or two, in fact this could be how they acquire said veteran pitcher.

The bottom line is, just because the players are there, doesn’t mean the front office is done making noise. He could even be looking for some NRI’s from other clubs who have opt outs if they don’t make the MLB squad to pick off very late in Spring. There is no event or timeline that takes the laser focus off talent acquisition.

5. “We’re Going to Win”

Derek Shelton uttered those words last week when talking about his excitement to watch this young team grow. I saw some fans calling him on it like the opposite is something that can be said. No coach is going to say we’re going to stink and nothing I try could possibly change it. No coach is going to say 75% of this team won’t be here when we’re good.

There is truth telling, and then there is a coach talking to the media.

If you’re honest with yourself, this is what you want your coach to say. It’s also what you want him to project to his players. They’re all smart people, they know they don’t have a roster that can hang with half the league, but if you start out with a defeatist tone it certainly won’t create an environment where improvement and learning thrive. Instead it just creates a toxic locker room filled with finger pointing and those who believe themselves part of the solution resenting those who aren’t.

It creates “welcome to hell”. And that’s just not something I personally want to revisit.

Question of the Week

First, Scott is one of our original readers, all the way back to the SI days, so we are truly grateful he is still with us over here.

I agree Scott, but looking back to last season, the league didn’t reach agreement on expanded playoffs and the universal DH until late in July, right before the pseudo season began. In other words, they aren’t afraid to allow the players to plan and train all Spring for one thing, only to have the regular season be something else.

In fact, they flatly said when the agreement was signed regarding health and safety protocols for the 2021 season that they were keeping the door open for negotiating separately on these items.

There is want to and for that matter need to many to get this done. Many managers are already concerned that even workhorse pitchers topped out around 70 innings last year, so reducing stress on pitchers even in this insignificant way is popular. The league and for that matter the players want the extended playoffs too, problem is, the owners want to keep all the treasure gained.

It’s ridiculous they haven’t decided yet. It’s understandable how it’s come to this. And finally, it’s going to continue to be a topic until the first pitch against the Cubs.

Here’s a really good read on the subject from just a couple days ago. https://www.yahoo.com/now/mlb-keeps-dh-expanded-playoffs-170027389.html