Building a New Pirates Culture

Wins and losses are never irrelevant. Sure, I’m guilty of saying nothing record related matters in 2021, and from a purely long term building perspective it doesn’t mean anything changes with the plan.

That doesn’t mean it won’t matter to the players, coaches or GM. In baseball once you’ve decided to embark on an aggressive and focused build based on young, high upside talent, you know you’re in for a long haul.

It’s going to take time because quite honestly, some of the people they traded for can’t even have a legal sip of alcohol. They’re little more than children in some cases and the Pirates may play upwards of 350 games before any of them start sniffing MLB.

Along the way, those 350 games will show themselves important if only by identifying the wave of prospects who happen to be closer than that already. Identifying current contributors who the club wants to be here when the time comes is important too. After all, those players have already done something a decent percentage of those just acquired never will, made the big leagues.

That doesn’t have much to do with Cherington’s ability to identify talent, as much as an acknowledgement of how damn hard it is to progress through MiLB just to get to Pittsburgh, let alone do so as a star player.

It doesn’t matter what Jonathan Mayo says about you, where you land on the pipeline, who’s blocking you, where the club assigns you to start 2021. What matters is learning, improving and being part of an organization for the first time in my observable time watching baseball finally rowing in the same direction.

Building a safety net of talent to always have an eye toward improvement, and ultimately, winning.

When you build from the very lowest levels of your farm system, it’s important the culture overhaul starts there. Nobody wants a team full of players entirely numb to the act of losing baseball games.

You want Quinn Priester to be mad he couldn’t get through the 6th. You want Mason Martin to go 3 for 4 and obsess over the one pop up with a guy on third. You’re looking for Nick Gonzales to take his base when being pitched around because he trusts that Cal Mitchell will make it count.

Losing is like acid in many ways. If used properly it can power your batteries, but if you handle it carelessly it can just as easily blow up in your face and leave you a shell of yourself.

So how can we expect players on the current squad to endure what could easily be a 100 loss season and come out on the other side intact?

Well it’s all about using the losses properly. Learning. Feeling it fully, embracing that feeling and doing everything you as an individual can to avoid feeling it again. If you lose 100 games in 2021 but come out of it knowing Mitch Keller learned how to keep part of his repertoire to himself the first time through the lineup so he could go deeper and fully embraced throwing the ball where Jacob wants it. Trusting that the coaching staff will execute the shifts effectively.

It’s worth it if Bryan Reynolds doesn’t feel like he has the entire team offensively on his shoulders and instead focuses on getting on base to let Hayes and Moran get the RBI. If the players who will be here start to come together and form the edge pieces of the puzzle you’re trying to build you just might not be asking the youngsters of the future to bring their own glue. Instead they’ll walk in to a fully formed and functioning group who know those young men are there to help make them better, rather than to steal their job.

Those youngsters are there to help experience that losing feeling less. The more you help them along, the more effect they’ll have.

These relationships start to form right here, in Spring Training. This is where organizations come together to lay out the plan.

Some people hearing that message today know they won’t be here to taste the fruit of the trees they’re planting, but most of them have been there before and realize how they can help just like someone once did for them.

Brian Goodwin probably remembers when Adam Eaton came in to eat into his playing time in Washington. Probably remembers how it stung and how he could have handled it better. Maybe even looking back he learned from how Eaton handled it, good or bad, and has learned himself how to be better at it.

Having guys who have played in winning organizations like Goodwin, Difo, and Frazier can provide a rudder for some who have no idea where to start.

Everything, no matter how insignificant can help create the culture. Winning and Losing cultures tend to be the two options people refer to, and that’s certainly part of it, but the culture doesn’t have to match the outcome. You can win on talent alone and overcome not really being a team. Likewise you can lose even while fully embracing the tenants of a club on the upswing but suffer from still missing pieces.

For the Pirates, 2021 will be crucially important to deciphering the type of organization this is going to be, and you won’t be able to tell from the record. Instead it will be who took a step during the season. Who became a player not only you believe in, but they themselves believe in.

The record is destined to be poor in 2021, but not for one second does that mean these games don’t matter or that there is nothing to be gained.

It might not be the most enjoyable season to watch, but 2021 will set the timeline for this franchise. They either have answers here already in need of ensuring they’ll still be here, or they don’t. If they don’t, the road get’s longer, if they do the upswing has already begun.

Avert your eyes if you must, but please don’t say it doesn’t matter.

Trust me the players don’t feel that way.

Top Ten Pirates Spring Storylines to Watch

The first game of Spring is scheduled for next Sunday, and thank God because it gets really old listening to all the platitudes and fluff that everyone has to put out from the time pitchers and catchers report to the time they throw a pitch in anger.

Today, lets take a look at ten storylines I think will be the most interesting to watch in Spring.

Also on a personal note, Happy Birthday to my Mom. No matter what I’ve done in life you have been my biggest cheerleader and I couldn’t be more grateful. You can’t choose your parents, if we could you’d have a much bigger family.

Now, onto the list!

10. The Rotation

Simplistic right? It’s hard to imagine the rotation starts 2021 as anything short of Brault, Kuhl, Keller, Anderson and Brubaker, but there really could be a couple youngsters who have something to say about that. Miguel Yajure and Wil Crowe will both challenge for a spot and we’d do well to not pretend anyone not named Keller is a lock. Logically both of those guys would do well as a long man or even starting in AAA, but I think they could just as easily decide Brault too could fill that role.

9. The 26th Man

At some point every player on the roster is technically the 26th man, but what I mean here is the last spot. Usually a utility guy, and the Pirates just tossed a curve ball into this mix by signing Todd Frazier. Because of the positions he would back up he’ll be in direct competition with Phillip Evans and I wonder if it could ultimately cost Cole Tucker indirectly. With three options to play short stop and four to play second, six if you count Evans and Moran, and no real room in the outfield for an experiment, Tucker might just find himself the odd man out.

8. The Prospects

Each and every one have things I’m looking for, but some really stand out. And it’s really about seeing where they are in their progression. Oneil Cruz and Quinn Priester probably peak my interest the most. I think Cruz has work to do, but Derek Shelton said they plan to bounce him around a bit this Spring and we should be able to start to understand how he handles that very real hurdle to get himself a spot sooner than later in MLB. That said, if the bat plays (and it doesn’t yet) he’ll play. Priester is interesting because, well, he’s one of the very top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He has five pitches, and I’d like to see all of them, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them limit the types he tosses.

7. Surprise Player Who Might Catch Your Eye

If I had to pick one, I might go with Rodolfo Castro the Pirates second base prospect. I think he’s flown under the radar largely and when you see his swing and slick fielding those days might be over. When, and I’ll only speak for myself here, I continually preach that Adam Frazier should be traded, it’s not only because I think they can replace him at the MLB level, it’s also because I really like Castro’s game and think he could really do some good things here.

6. The Marin Effect

Arguably a pitching coach never has more direct effect on development than this time of year. Sure they work on it all season too and tweak things as they go, but this is where they lay the base. Last year this work was interrupted and injury caused over half the pitchers used to have never even been part of the plan. Talent matters too of course, but this season we’ll start to see how Marin really grabs hold of this staff and how he helps them find pathways to improvement. Youth doesn’t always lead to wins in MLB, but it sure does make for a moldable learning environment.

5. Steven Brault

I touched on him earlier and of course he could be considered a long relief or swing man. But make no mistake, Brault is for the first time in his career heading into a season as an expected starter. It’s his job to lose, and that can’t be a normal feeling for him. It seems like a small thing, but some people thrive in the underdog role, feeling that their back is against the wall causes them to come out swinging. Let’s see what a little dose of expectation does to the Pirates suddenly veteran lefty.

4. Aftershocks

Right or wrong, and I happen to believe totally right, the Pirates moved some big names and personalities off the club this off season. Natural leaders all. Logically, players like Stallings will step into the light a bit more but I’m interested to see which of the young guys really steps up to assume the mantle. For instance, Mitch Keller wants this role on and off the field, but let’s see how he feels about that after a bad outing. What you’d like to avoid is having someone like Todd Frazier step into that role because this club needs to start establishing what makes them tick, and that needs to come from guys who will be here beyond 2021.

3. Blake Cederlind

Why do I single him out? Well, Blake has the most MLB ready arm and position on the club. This team needs a closer, and he has closer stuff. Now, if you’ve read my stuff for a while you know I don’t actually believe a closer is a position that needs to be as nailed on as it has become in baseball, but I’m not the coach, and he seems to really want one. With that being the case, there should absolutely be room for Cederlind to make the club. They’ll have a hard time keeping that kid down long if he doesn’t make it and service time manipulation is much less prevalent for bullpen arms. If they want to sell position battles and competition determine playing time, I better not see him sent down because it makes the numbers work better. Talent needs to win.

2. DH?

That’s right, it’s still being talked about. Even as teams are actively having their starters practice bunting MLB is still floating that they want to get this done for the 2021 season. This is going to leave a whole lot of teams unprepared and could very well explain beyond the obvious why Todd Frazier might have been brought in here. I’d love to tell you this is all on MLB and the owners, but team executives all over the league are dumbfounded this crucial roster affecting ruling has not been determined at this point. It’s not even about yea or nay at this time, it’s more about please just say one way or the other so we can make decisions or additions.

1. Extensions

I fully expect an extension if not this Spring then early in the season. The Pirates have already started a dialogue with Ke’Bryan Hayes and I’m sure he’s not the only one. It’s not about payroll as much as it’s about starting to decide who they want to build this team around. I certainly wouldn’t expect a Tatis style deal, but I’ll go as far as to predict the club will set a new Pirates record with one of these very soon. Granted, they only have to beat out the Kendall deal at 6 years 60 Million, but I expect something in the 8 year range. If Cherington follows what he did in Boston, the timing is almost perfect.

Picking Apart Every Move The Pirates Make

I am not in the business of faulting or shaming anyone for trying to piece together the reason(s) behind any transaction the Pirates make. It is something I do myself on a weekly and even daily basis as a blogger and podcaster, so it would be highly hypocritical judge anyone. No matter how minor the story, opinions are quickly formed concerning how it will impact the future of the ball club. Among them are the diamonds in the rough, high end prospects, perceived faces of the organization for years to come and veteran leaders who will ultimately be flipped for the next collection of hopefuls; or simply a group of players to be picked apart by the credible teams within Major League Baseball if your are being completely cynical. These impassioned exercises of prognostication occur on an near constant basis, almost without exception. In fact, just a couple of days ago an extremely minor agreement led to discussions concerning the impact on present and potentially future members of Pittsburgh Pirates. The acquisition in question was the signing of Todd Frazier to a Minor League Contract with an invitation to Spring Training, and a potential to earn $1.5 million if he makes the Opening Day roster.

Don’t get me wrong, I see absolutely nothing wrong with this signing. I even see the potential benefits of the decision to bring Frazier to Bradenton, allowing him to the opportunity to earn a spot on the team and ultimately making the choice to bring him north to PNC at the beginning of the season. However, I am not going to look at is as anything beyond the obvious implications of such a move; which are extremely limited.

Prior to Frazier joining the Pirates, Colin Moran’s only competition at first base consisted of a 26 year-old prospect with four Major League at bats, who was designated for assignment back in December and a player with 13 innings at the position in 45 career games; and in all honesty Frazier has only started 99 games at the position with only a quarter of them coming in the last five years. At his age, five and half years younger than me, this is most logical transition. It also makes the most sense, if he would make the roster, to be a platoon mate for Moran; which many have already mentioned. Against left handed pitchers over the past two years Frazier has slashed .293/.366/.511 with 10 homers and a 131 OPS+, which could potentially be beneficial. However, if you take a look at the NL Central starting rotations each staff has only one left hander, with the Cubs possibly being without one. So, it doesn’t equate to the equal share platoon, or even close to it, as some have implied.

On the defensive side of the equation I have seen people punctuate the difficulties Colin Moran has experienced in his career, as well as the upgrade that Frazier could provide in comparison to Josh Bell. Once again, we have to take the differences in position as both Frazier and Moran are both Third Baseman by trade, while Bell came up through the Pirates Organization as an outfielder. However, it only makes sense to compare their performances at the most likely position of First Base.

Over the last two years Frazier has earned a 0 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) at 1st, with a lifetime production of -4, Moran is a 0 across the board in 222 innings and Bell had the best year of his career by putting up a -1 in 2020. As far as OAA (Outs Above Average) Bell was a 0 last year, while both Moran and Frazier came in at -1. Now this is not to say that Frazier shouldn’t be an upgrade over Bell, it just might not be to the degree that many might expect.

The next piece of reasoning I have seen concerning how this move could be a clear positive for the Pirates is the ability to flip Frazier at the deadline, which could happen and could be some of the thinking behind this move. As a 35 year old veteran the original options could be limited, but the proposition of being traded to a competitor for a playoff run could be fairly enticing, however, the return for such a player could a little bit unpredictable; except for the fact that it just took place last year.

On August 31st of the shortened season Frazier was traded from the Texas Rangers to the New York Mets for the always popular Player To Be Named Later. In the end this turned out to be relief pitcher Ryder Ryan, who is unsurprisingly not a top 30 prospect in the system. This is not to say he will never be a productive Major Leaguer at some point, it just is not the level of return that many may be expecting.

The final explanation I have seen to show how this move is better than most others to the masses is the immeasurable veteran presence and overall experience he can bestow on such a young team, Ke’Bryan Hayes included. Sure The Toddfather could show or set an example as to how a professional conducts himself both on and off the field, but please don’t try to tell me he can teach a 3 time MiLB Gold Glove third baseman how to play the position. If I am being honest, I am positive Hayes will be ok without much input.

After considering all of this information and looking at a decent amount of statistics I figured out why Pirates Fans considered this Minor League Contract better than others. Eventually it comes down to name recognition. For arguments sake let’s consider the Pirates signed Ehire Adrianza or Yangervis Solarte to a similar deal. If this were the case I couldn’t see Pirates Fans being nearly as optimistic, even though the upside might be equal looking back on it three, five or ten years from now.

At this point some of you may be thinking I am downplaying the magnitude of this move, although I already said I could see the benefits for the Pirates and their individual players; well actually, you are about 95% correct. The other 5% could be spent considering the unknown or the fact that Cherington, and maybe Shelton, are not as confident in their bench options as we may have thought.

The Bullpen Piece Some May Have Forgotten About

The bullpen for the Pirates has been a series of moving parts over the last two seasons, and that trend will likely continue in 2021. But there was a time three years ago where the ‘pen was very dominant, featuring Felipe Vasquez, Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, and eventually Keone Kela at the trade deadline. 

There was one other player that was very good for the Pirates at the time, by the name of Edgar Santana. Today, I’ll be looking at what the heck happened to him, and where he might fit once he makes his expected return to Pittsburgh this year. 

An international free agent signing all the way back in 2013, Santana made his Pirates debut in 2017 and pitched well in 18 innings of work, with a 3.50 ERA. In 2018, Santana finally got an Opening Day bullpen spot, and he didn’t miss the opportunity to show his stuff. Pitching in many different roles across 69 appearances for the Pirates, Santana pitched to the tune of a 3.26 ERA and was very crucial in the team’s successes leading up to the trade deadline. For those people who look at FIP, that number was also impressive, at 3.58.

Unfortunately, Santana injured himself near the end of the 2018 season to the point where he required Tommy John Surgery, meaning he would miss the entire 2019 campaign. He finally returned for Spring Training 2020, where he looked like he hadn’t missed any time, tossing 5 scoreless innings. At the end of June, right before the MLB came back for their 60-game season, Santana tested positive for boldenone, a Performance Enhancing Drug. 

This was a huge disappointment for him and not the first impression you want to make to the brand new organization. With the carousel of bad relievers (Del Pozo, Neverauskas, Bashlor) seeing high-leverage situations last year, it was almost a guarantee that we would have seen Santana at some point during the year. 

All of that being said, does Santana deserve a second chance coming into this season? Personally, I believe he does. This isn’t a case of somebody pitching really badly and then hoping he is able to get another shot. Santana is a guy who pitched really well the last time he was in a regular season game and then impressed last season in the spring. 

The last time we saw Santana in consistent regular season action, he was throwing a combination of four pitches, with his go-to being the 94-95 MPH sinker (44.5% of all pitches) and his highest strikeout pitch by far, the 86-87 MPH slider (39.0%). His fastball (13.0)% sat around 94 and he also added a changeup (88-89 MPH), which he only threw 33 total times in 2018. 

When Gary wrote about the bullpen earlier this week, he had Santana as a wild-card due to the lack of actual pitching action he’s gotten over the past few years. I agree with that, and I still see guys like NRI Chasen Shreve and 2020 breakout player Geoff Hartlieb in the Opening Day bullpen, but don’t sleep on a guy like Santana. A start in AAA Indianapolis would likely serve him well, and if he gets roughed up in the spring, he might fall lower on the depth chart. 

There is also uncertainty about the places of some of the guys that the Pirates acquired in trades, like Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure, or even Cody Ponce, who pitched well in a couple of those doubleheaders last season. With Tyler Anderson being signed they are likely on the outside looking in rotation-wise, but will the staff give them a shot in long relief, especially considering that Cherington acquired them?

One of the hot topics on Pirates social media nowadays is the fact that people want to build trade value throughout the season to trade for prospects at the deadline. While I agree to some extent with a few players like Richard Rodriguez, I do not agree at all with Santana. For starters, he’s only 29 and doesn’t turn 30 until after the season. After this year, he still has three years of arbitration remaining, so it would be dumb to get rid of him now. That could obviously change based on how things go, but for now, at least keep him around.

There is one more scenario that I know I’m not the only one who thought of it, but I wanted to include it. Kyle Crick is a reliever who is on a very hot seat right now, and a bad spring could do it for him. His velocity dropped significantly last year, and if it doesn’t return, I would hope and expect him to be cut. If that ends up happening, that would open up a bullpen spot, allowing Santana or one of the other guys to slot in.

At the end of the day, this will be a spring-long battle, and whoever pitches the best might win. I do see Shelton and his staff giving everyone a fair evaluation, but I wonder if he’d give a slight advantage to the guys he was able to develop relationships and guys he was able to rely on in his first season rather than trust a guy who got suspended before all that even took place. I only see good things coming out of it, though, because too much depth is never a bad thing. 

Discovering the Pirates Leadership Group

You’d never believe that on top of podcasting, and writing and social media that we have more baseball talk in us, but at least 3-4 times a week Craig Toth and I wind up getting into deep baseball conversations and it goes on all night.

Ok, maybe not rapid fire texting, Craig at least has a life and young kids. But over the course of a night we’ll back and forth on a subject and talk through it.

Last night neither of us could get past the yearly revisiting of who the Pirates leaders would be. Early spring training tradition is to immediately start with who the leaders will be and who will lead the rotation.

These are stories because when you change over the veterans on your roster in the offseason, of course the job is seemingly always up for grabs.

Thing is, to me you can’t name things like this.

I can tell you right now Jacob Stallings is probably the most prepared to be the field general, but that hasn’t changed, he’s been that since it became clear all the best pitchers wanted to throw to him when he was clearly in a backup role. Players recognize quickly who helps them be better, and who gobbles up every ground ball. They notice the guy who covers the gaps and turns doubles into singles.

I can tell you from a talent standpoint that Mitch Keller should wind up being the best pitcher on the staff. That said, he’s only started 16 MLB games, and I’d like him to be a bit more selfish, or internally focused at the very least to become all he can be without trying to carry the burden of leading anything other than his body to the mound.

This time of year, there simply isn’t much to cover. Most of the deals are wrapped up and talking about who leads the team or who wants to step up to be a leader on the team have become as regular and counted on as “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” at the 7th inning stretch.

Leaders in baseball emerge over time. Josh Bell was a leader, but not the kind you’d look for necessarily. He wasn’t going to give you a fiery locker room speech or jump all over his infield group to tighten up. He was a quiet leader, one who people looked up to for how he dealt with the media. The way he handled his own struggles with grace. The way he handled his hot streaks with an understanding there would come a time when he cooled off.

Bryan Reynolds is a leader, by all accounts he too prefers the quiet approach, allowing his on field actions to speak louder than his deep drawl ever could.

Reality of things like this is the best players will get looked to. Not only by the team itself, but also the media. For all we know Erik Gonzalez has been very hands on helping the infielders get better, but unless he hits or another player points it out, we’ll never hear about it.

This isn’t hockey, nobody is going to wear the “C” or “A”. That’s not how it works in baseball. For a team like this that has yet to draw their line in the sand, meaning they have yet to show us or the team for that matter exactly who from this current club might be part of the window, there has to be a bit of trepidation approaching the subject.

Let’s say Steven Brault comes out and looks settled in from the jump. He looks like the best version of Brault from the first series of the season, is he the leader? Maybe, but players aren’t blind or ignorant as to what’s happening here and they’ll know Brault is pitching his way into a deadline deal. That’s where we are. That’s where they are.

Does that mean nobody will look up to him? Of course not, but it might mean he’s never fully embraced as the example everyone follows.

Now, sign someone long term, and you have a different story. Openly have a guy who knows he’s a Pirate for the next 8 years and players take notice. Not only is there more of a feeling of permanency with that player, there is more of a feeling that doing the right things could lead to the same for you.

Some people are born with leadership qualities, some have leadership bestowed upon them, but in baseball sometimes there is nothing more powerful than management pinning those stripes on your sleeve if you will.

Don’t get me wrong, leaders will emerge this year with or without something like that, but until the Pirates are fully committed to a player or two the moniker won’t fully cement.

A Pirates State of Mind

Yesterday, news broke that Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a monster extension with the Padres. Specifically a 14 year, 340 Million dollar extension, and good for him, he’s quite possibly the most electric young player in baseball.

Many people of course started to talk about how impossible it would be for the Pirates to sign anyone to a contract like that and baseball is broken, and Machado, and Hosmer, and…, well you get the picture.

All of that is true, all of that has a place, but that’s not what struck me yesterday talking with people about this signing.

No what really caught me were thoughts like, Man, 14 years is a long time, I’d be shocked if he was good after year 10. Should have waited to have him do it in a normal season first. Boy, I hope his back issues don’t follow him through his career or the Padres are screwed.

And so many more.

These all seem like completely logical observations. None of them were about disliking him for flipping his bat or anything silly like that.

What this is though is what I call a Pirates State of Mind.

We’ve been programmed to see things like this as crazy, risky, even scary. The biggest such extension the Pirates have ever inked is still the Andrew McCutchen 6 year 51.5 million dollar extension back in the Spring of 2012. Maybe they believed the Mayans and never thought they’d have to pay it.

It got me thinking about Ke’Bryan Hayes. He had a tremendous rookie campaign, if you can consider a month as a campaign.

If Bob Nutting got into the good brownies and gave Ben the ability to do so, and the Pirates extended Hayes right now for 12 years at 250 Million one would think that would be met with excitement, but I’m willing to bet, it would come with a healthy dose of second guessing too.

There would be fans who thought it was too early. There would be fans who would freak out because we’ve been trained that we might get one extension but we won’t get two, so they better be right.

Imagine if after 2019 the Pirates ponied up for Brian Reynolds. Imagine he then came out and had that 2020. As it stands everyone believes he’ll be fine, he’s hit at every level of baseball he’s ever played including MLB, so of course he’ll bounce back. Even the coach says that, I believe that firmly, I’m sure most of you do too. But if the Pirates were locked in for the next 12 years at 18 Mil a year, I do wonder how the narrative would change.

We’ve been programmed to think contracts like this are crazy. We are directed to Detroit to see how Miggy has declined as a cautionary tale. Somehow we’ve been recruited to help protect the wallet of someone we truly loathe.

Part of that is we legitimately understand they simply don’t have that kind of revenue coming in. OK, we strongly assume because not spending is a tradition here in Pittsburgh since the players gained free agency. And spare me the Parker story, I know he got paid but you know what we’re talking about here.

We don’t even consider it most of the time.

If they did extend Hayes, in our minds that would be a death nail in the possibility of ever doing the same for Priester, or Malone, or name your prospect du jour, because surely we can’t have more than one making that kind of money.

Blame baseball. Blame Nutting. That’s not really the point as much as how we mentally approach things like this. Other teams in the Pirates spending slot have done it. Baltimore made a huge mistake with Chris Davis, but they tried. The Mariners made a big mistake with Robinson Cano, but they tried.

This is what it costs to keep superstar talent. This is the risk of keeping said talent. This is a game some teams like the Rays have played at an expert level. They extend and front load so the contracts are affordable to move and restock.

Regardless of how the game is played, you can’t win if you don’t play. And why play if you’ve convinced your most loyal of fans that it just can’t happen? They don’t even need to explain it to us anymore, we all have it mapped out before they even need to address it. If they don’t extend Hayes within the next two seasons, we’ll all start projecting when he get’s traded.

We hold out hope that he’ll sign a “Pirates extension” where they buy out his arbitration and a couple extra seasons and we’ll convince ourselves we wouldn’t want him after that because decline, or something to that effect.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying this about all of you and acting like I’m above it. These thoughts creep in for me all the time.

If baseball changes it’s economic system, I’ll be honest, it will still be something I fight for a while. 40 years of programming tends to stick.

The other side of the story is the fact I can’t think of a player aside from Cutch that warranted such a discussion. Maybe that’s where we should start. Let’s get to the point where we have more we’d like to see extended in an expensive and meaningful way, and then focus on changing a culture that is starting to feel more like a cult.

The Spend Nutting crowd isn’t annoying because they’re wrong, they’re annoying because they’d use it as an answer on every question in the SAT.

This is a franchise that needs to recover. On the field of course, but in the hearts and minds of the fans they’ve created over four decades of being so far removed from conversations like this they seem foreign at this point.

Travis Williams and Ben Cherington took incredibly difficult jobs, and I bet even they don’t understand the depths to which our psyches have been damaged.

Part of their job is now absolutely changing what defines the Pirates State of Mind.

As Predicted, By Him, Cherington Adds Depth To The Starting Rotation

On Tuesday afternoon, the day before the Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers and catchers were set to hold their first official workout of the season, General Manager Ben Cherington finally pulled the trigger on a veteran pitcher, lefty Tyler Anderson, to add to mostly inexperienced and vastly unproven starting rotation; a move that Cherington implied would eventually happen after finalizing his most recent trade of the offseason, as he and others the Pirates front office would “likely shift our energy back toward adding to the team.”.

When pressed on the issue, ever so slightly, during the same media session he expanded on the need to fill some of the voids in the rotation left by the departures of Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, as well as Trevor Williams and Chris Archer if we are keeping track. Cherington informed those present that, “We’re open to adding more than one, whether that’s through free agency, a trade or some mix of that,”, which is pretty much what just happened.

Of course this wasn’t the first time Cherington called his own shot. Earlier in the off-season, following the Josh Bell trade, he told reporters that this, “Likely won’t be the last one. There will probably be more. I’m not saying that to predict anything. That’s the realization.” Over the next month Musgrove and Taillon were traded as well.

Following the Musgrove trade he alluded to adding additional pieces via trade or free agency, even though the already had some “oars in the water”. The key positions of need he punctuated were pitchers, both starters and bullpen arms, the outfield and catcher. Since then he has signed catchers Joe Hudson and Tony Wolters, outfielder Brian Goodwin, relief pitcher Chasen Shreve and obviously Mr. Anderson; while adding pitcher Miguel Yajure to the already acquired duo of Wil Crowe and David Bednar.

Now, if you came here looking for insight on the most recent Pirates free agent signing, I’m sorry to disappoint you. There’s not much more to add on to the spin rates, exit velocities, pitch mixes and stats of Anderson’s 5 year Major League career that have been reported and tweeted at length since the $2.5 million signing. He is a 31 year old former first round pick, who has accumulated 6.4 WAR over 456.2 innings with the Rockies and Giants. At worst he adds depth and experience to the rotation as a capable starter and innings eater. Take it for what it’s worth, AND maybe start to take General Manager Ben Cherington at his word.

Let’s Talk Pirates Bullpen Construction

The Pirates obviously improved every facet of the ball club way back in the early 2010’s as the window became apparent. Quite possibly the most underrated yet most important part of that window opening was on the mound.

People often point to AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano, make no mistake those two were key to the success of those clubs but the fact that from the 6th inning on opponents were rarely going to add to a lead or cut into a deficit because of the lights out bullpen the Pirates tossed out was arguably even bigger.

They aren’t there yet clearly, but they also aren’t as far away from having a well rounded and effective bullpen again as many assume. After watching 2020 play out, trust me, I get why that’s the assumption, but man that was a beat up roster in general.

Today I’d like to look at the options to make the 26-man roster in the Pirates bullpen, and by way of showing you who might not make it, illustrate the depth they’ve built up to weather a storm of injuries.

Before we dig in, let’s talk numbers. They’ll probably keep 13 pitchers on the active roster and even if I’m wrong we’ll use that as the premise as our starting point. Subtract the 5 spots for starters and you’re left with 8 slots for relievers

The Locks (4)

Truthfully, there shouldn’t be any but we all know contract situation and experience will play in here so I’m not going to get cute and pretend anyone could go as we build out this list.

Richard Rodriguez – Rich Rod is remembered for giving up homeruns, and he certainly has struggled with that aspect of the game. When he’s on he induces pop ups with his high fastball, when he isn’t he gives up big flies. His overall picture though, is one of a quality bullpen piece. In 164 games he is a 1.2 WAR player with a 3.41 ERA. All of this also makes him a likely trade piece too, but if he stays, he plays.

Chris Stratton – Spin rate champion! This is a whole lot like Erik Gonzalez and his hard hit rate, but it’s a fact that Stratton can spin it like few in the league. All of this has amounted to a 2.1 WAR player and he’s largely outperformed that as his overall number is dragged down by horrific starting stats with the Giants and Angels. As a reliever he’s been really solid and I think rumors of stretching him out to start again should probably be over at this point.

Michael Feliz – How is he a lock right? I don’t disagree but he has no options and signed with the club for 1 million dollars. He’s underwhelmed here and struggled with control since his arrival but he wouldn’t survive waivers. The Pirates like that Michael took the initiative to go out and work on his mechanics independently this off season and like the reports as to the results. The expectation is a slight uptick in his already impressive velocity coupled with more control. We shall see but I think he makes the team regardless.

Luis Oviedo – This one is simple. I’ll tell you about him anyway but this one all comes down to Luis being a Rule 5 pick up. The Mets actually selected him as it looks like the Pirates made a side deal to have the Mets do their dirty work here by picking him and immediately selling his rights to the Pirates. If you don’t understand how the rule works, the Pirates have to keep him on the roster is the most simplified way to put it. He has zero service time, experience starting and out of the pen and because of all his experience being varied, we have zero clue how the club plans to use him. A mid to high 90s fastball in his quiver and a need to improve his breaking stuff will necessitate a healthy dose of kid gloves with Oviedo but if they make it through 2021 with him on the roster, they pick up a top ten talent from the Indians essentially for free.

The Very Likely

Let’s keep our running total alive here. We used up 4 spots on our “locks” and that leaves us room for 4 more.

Kyle Crick – You all know Mr. Crick, which is more than I can say for most of this list. I can’t put him in the lock list because quite simply if he doesn’t have his fastball again, he can’t be one of them. Nothing works without it. The slider doesn’t bite the same, the two seam doesn’t move, the high heat get’s clobbered and that’s all if he manages to throw it over the plate. It would really show me something if Crick is only hitting 91-93 on the gun and got cut. Obviously, if Crick can show he’s back, he is the most logical player on the roster to start out as the closer so he’s worth hoping for.

Chasen Shreve – Left handed free agent signing who could just as easily start in AAA as he signed a minor league deal, but he has much more experience than any other lefty in the system and the Bucs will give him every opportunity to make the club.

David Bednar – Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, David is a hometown kid from Mars, PA. Not that where he’s from should really factor in, especially when his 95+ MPH fastball speaks much louder. He has brief experience hasn’t been stellar, but I think he has a great chance to make the club and fill a back end role.

The Last Spot

Yeah. This could go to a long man who doesn’t make the rotation like Wil Crowe, Carson Fulmer, Cody Ponce or Miguel Yajure. You can even toss in longshots like Clay Holmes, Sean Poppen or Chase De Jong.

Maybe they’d like to have more than one lefty. That leads you to one of Sam Howard or Austin Davis making the club. Maybe I’m wrong about Shreve in the first place and he’s down here instead of up there. Even if you change the names, the conversation is the same.

Geoff Hartlieb – is probably my leader in the clubhouse. He really showed he had a lot to offer in 2020. In fact if you made of list of which Pirates impressed in 2020, he’d be on the very short list.

Blake Cederlind & Nick Mears – Both of these guys are talented high upside players and I’d be shocked to not see both of them in Pittsburgh before 2021 is through. Either one of them could wind up being a closer or at the very least back of the bullpen guy.

Tyler Bashlor – I can’t see him surviving the 40-man if I’m honest. As I discussed yesterday in the Bubble player conversation, when the NRI players make the team, corresponding moves will cause players like this to no longer be in the picture. That doesn’t mean he won’t remain in the system however, just the risk.

Edgar Santana – I have no idea where to slot him. We haven’t seen him pitch in so long he could be the closer or nothing as he returns from TJ followed by PE drug suspension back to back. (Thanks to my friend @KG_55VFTG on Twitter for pointing out my omission)

What all this means is no matter how they ultimately build this bullpen, there will be capable players in AAA. This is not something the Pirates have had in years and it makes the overall organization stronger.

Rebuilds are tough for fans to go through, understandably, but when you steady yourself on the mound and look professional out of the bullpen you can at least make it more competitive.

Another angle on all this I didn’t really address is the trust in the starting rotation. I don’t think there is much, nor should there be. When building the bullpen they could be smart to include multiple long men, maybe that’s a niche Stratton fills well, maybe Ponce, either way there are so many factors involved in building this aspect and no one position will undergo more day to day shifts, call ups, send downs as well. Suffice to say, they’ll need to keep 8, but they’ll use more like 15 IF they stay healthy.

All of that and I’m not even touching trades.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five 2-15-21

We begin another week here at Inside the Bucs Basement and real baseball is ramping up this week as pitchers and catchers report for their first workout on Wednesday. Normal is a relative term but it figures to be a lot closer than 2020 was at the very least.

Let’s dig in and have some fun talking baseball.

1. Trade, Trade, Everywhere a Trade

The Pirates obviously are moving assets for prospects. Build, rebuild, tear down, blow up, whatever. Point is they’re actively engaged in it. Some for the life of them can’t fathom why anyone was kept on the club and constantly call for trades of everyone with a pulse who has worn the P on their hat.

I get it, I really do. When you recognize what your team is doing it almost becomes easier to root for the band aid removal approach. Get them all traded and let’s see the kids right?

Well, the fact is, many of these players are themselves ‘kids’ and the younger players you’d rather see, simply aren’t ready to contribute.

The club could still make a move of two, but be realistic and as I always say, follow the control. Rodriguez, maybe a Moran or Stallings could all be pried away from the Pirates, but at some point, it’s ok to hit pause, let the players play, build value and allow the youngsters to infuse themselves naturally.

And, no, it’s not about this team being competitive now or anything like that. It’s more about the understanding that trading a player like Reynolds or Newman could easily be shooting yourself in the foot. You might get a nice package back, but let’s be honest, getting someone who performs like Reynolds did in 2019 in return who is ready by 2024 is wrought with hope and questions.

At some point, it’s ok to sit back and watch. Plenty of time to discuss moving more players as the season rolls on.

All that said, Adam Frazier still makes a ton of sense, more on that later.

2. Phillip Evans’ Versatility Gives Him an Edge

When decisions get close one thing a player can do to separate themselves is to become as versatile as possible. Phil can play everywhere but Center, Short, and Catcher and I bet it’s not because he’s unwilling to try.

His history with the Mets and Pirates amounts to all of 93 at bats but largely, he’s performed well at the plate and proven himself pretty capable at every position he’s been asked to patrol.

Baseball clubs do well to have a guy like this around, and if Evans has one thing working against him, it’s that he isn’t the only one. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Pirates plan for him in 2021, with his status still set at pre-arb and the entirety of 2021 still counting as MLB rookie status, he’s got plenty of control left, but he also turns 29 this year.

3. The Dodgers are So Great! We Should All Admire Them and Their Coronation

Jon for those of you who don’t know him, one of the national baseball writers with his head in the sand. To him the Dodgers just want it more.

I’ve never shied away from being critical of how Bob Nutting takes a bad situation and makes it worse by spending far less than he could. But the Pittsburgh Pirates quite simply couldn’t do this even if they planned to sell literally everyone the next year. Nor could approximately 20 other clubs.

This doesn’t guarantee the Dodgers a World Championship in 2021, nothing really does. Baseball is resistant to address the disparity in their league and Jon is in no way the only national writer running constant cover for them.

I also don’t hate the Dodgers. They’ve built most of this club through shrewd moves as well as drafting and developing better than just about anyone else. Being able to keep them is what sets them apart. Being able to add in a Mookie Betts and Trevor Bauer on top is what sets them apart.

Imagine rooting for a ball club that loses a player like Joc Pederson and quite literally it is just as impactful as the Pirates letting Jose Osuna walk.

A club that can sign a 37 year old to a two year contract without fear that the cliff is near because it’s just money.

One last thing in my rant. Honestly, did you even know the owner of the Dodgers name before you saw it in that tweet?

insane.

4. Depth Has Improved

The overall talent level on the MLB squad for the Pirates has absolutely taken a hit this year in an effort to bring in more prospects. There’s no disputing that, but the overall depth of the organization has potentially given them more ability to weather another storm of injury.

The bullpen alone will leave some very capable pitchers off the 26-man this year with real talent coming soon. In fact some of those young players have legitimate chances to make the club out of Spring. That’s the beauty of having so few commitments.

Last season when injuries started piling up the Bucs were pouring over waiver wires to find anyone with a pulse to come in here and eat five or six innings. In 2021 should they experience the same type of difficulty, this team is much more prepared to bring in guys with pedigree and experience.

The Bullpen is going to be one of the most interesting storylines this Spring.

Even the catching position has been beefed up to the point should Jacob Stallings god forbid have to sit for a couple weeks or a month, the drop off wouldn’t be near as precipitous as it was in 2020. Small, but important.

5. Bounce Him Around

This was the description of what we should expect to see of Oneil Cruz this Spring provided by Derek Shelton. Cruz is a top 50 prospect in MLB and he made it listed as a third baseman. Certainly not going to be his landing spot in MLB unless something awful happens to Ke’Bryan Hayes this season. We’ll finally start to see what the club might have in mind for Cruz, but none of it will matter if the bat doesn’t finish rounding out.

That’s focus number one this season. If the bat comes along, play him anywhere he won’t embarrass the club, if it doesn’t, take your sweet time.

Question of the Week

OK, so this one wasn’t intended to be a question of the week, but it’s jut too important to pass up.

Kim McGuinness on Facebook asks, “Why does everyone insist that Frazier will be traded???”

Some trade targets make sense because they carry value and can return something that continues to build the talent level of the Pirates prospect pool.

Some are running out of control and the club needs to decide if they’re part of the future or ultimately not going to be here long term.

Others still are preventing the club from getting eyes on younger players with more upside who need a place to play.

Then there are players like Adam Frazier who meet all three criteria. The bottom line, he isn’t an extension candidate if only because there is no chance he beats out the players coming and some of those prospects will provide much cheaper bench options as the club allows competition to dictate who plays where.

That’s why. Because everything from roster construction to the goals of the club long term make more sense with Adam in another uniform.

Have a great week everyone!

Bubble Players, Position Battles and the Construction of the Pirates 26-Man Roster

There always seems to be a sense of finality to the final cuts in Spring Training. For some, it’s one more rejection in a career filled with them, for others the last time they’ll experience it.

Some have done nothing save playing a position the club has no need of, while few start to think MLB might not be part of their life’s work.

This is where roster construction gets really granular. Spots on the 40-man are precious this time of year and absent any further wheeling and dealing we can start to really look at where most players fall.

A great for instance is Brian Goodwin, the newly signed outfielder for the Pirates. He’s not a star, but he’s a capable and experienced defender in all three spots out there and has handled the bat well in stretches. Last season was a mitigated disaster, but man that was the case for so many players it’s hard to keep up, even Mike Trout looked human.

Point is, Goodwin isn’t on the 40-man, but he signed a 1.6 million dollar contract to play in the minors with an invite to Spring Training. The contract also has 900 K in bonuses should he earn a roster spot.

Nothing is a lock, not on a team like this, but Goodwin is just about as close as you can come.

Once the Pirates make that choice, they’ll have to add him to the 40-man and unfortunately that also will mean someone has to come off to make room.

Jared Oliva and Anthony Alford as currently constructed would battle for the 4th outfield spot, if the Pirates were deep here Goodwin never gets signed. When they make the corresponding move don’t look for Alford or Oliva to be the guy who gets bumped from the roster as the chance the team will need all five outfielders is extremely likely.

Let’s get even deeper. Alford has no options, so in order to send him down he’d have to clear waivers, meaning the Bucs could lose him, and the depth he provides. Oliva has options and they could send him down with no issue so long as he remains on the 40-man.

It’s much more likely someone like Tyler Bashlor would be the sacrificial lamb to clear room for Goodwin on the 40-man and when you really think about it, those two players will never compete for a damn thing.

Building a roster is chalk full of decisions like this and every answer creates another question.

We just talked about what happens if Goodwin makes the club but we should also keep in mind just how bad he’d have to be in Spring to not have all this play out. Oliva could flat out look like the team’s very best outfielder and still be the odd man out simply because him starting in AAA creates less loss of talent from the ballclub.

In other words, they might need Alford as depth more than they need a player like Bashlor.

OK, that’s one scenario and I’ve already discussed how many fingers one decision has, so let’s move to the backstop position. Jacob Stallings is a lock, Michael Perez is on the 40-man and has options, then you toss in the new signing Tony Wolters, an experienced starting level catcher in the league.

He too is just about a lock to win the back up job and much like the outfield the club won’t want to lose the depth that Perez provides. This too could cause a pitcher to be jettisoned, possibly a Carson Fulmer or Sean Poppen. Maybe Kyle Crick shows up and can’t hit 93 on the gun and he makes his way to the list of possible cuts.

The point is, many of these position battles regardless of who wins or loses might not even affect the position being battled over from a 40-man perspective and rarely is it reasonable to expect these decisions are made from a purely performance based mindset.

The other side of all this is the players I referenced signed willingly to minor league deals. In other words they know full well they could end up playing in MiLB this season and if that happens to be where they start, no sacrifices will be made from the 40-man. Problem is, an incredibly young team like this needs experience and veteran leadership, so if the performance of players like this even just looks professional, it would be a tough choice to keep them down.

As we get into Spring keep all these ins and outs in mind, because while they won’t necessarily come out of the GM’s mouth, trust me they’re running through his mind.